$$$MR. MARKET$$$'s Personal Homepage and Stock Portfolio

[mrmarket]

To learn more about how the $$$MR. MARKET$$$ model works and to read about $$$MR. MARKET$$$, himself, go to his personal homepage:

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/huge/

[JARM]

Mr. Market,

Okay, I guess I misunderstand the intent of your picks produced by your model.

Perhaps I can rephrase my question as follows: Are there ever circumstances or time considerations (for example, what applied 6 months ago might not apply today) that would ever cause you to think that perhaps the model, as successful as it has been, might on occasion not yield the results it predicted? When and under what circumstances (if any) would you cut your losses?

Had I followed your rule of taking 15% profits I would currently have more money in my account, but being very new to the market, I've made some amateur mistakes and watched some profits dissipate. That's the reason that I'm asking about cutting losses--I don't want to repeat past mistakes. Are there ever times that your model doesn't work as intended, and if so, do you take any protective measures?

Thank you again for your time and help.



I'd appreciate any

[mrmarket]

My model is a forest...not individual trees. It tells me what stocks to buy. I don't know which ones will go straight up and which ones will take a meandering path. What I do know is that if I sell all of the stocks that drop 8%, I would have made a lot less money than if I had held them to their 15% target.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market, Your stock market model states that in a typical bull market stocks picked will, on average, gain 15% in 4-6 weeks. Many people would still not call this a typical bull market, but your model is working wonderfully. In theory, if this was a "raging bull" market would the 4-6 week period be shortened to say 2-4 weeks? Would you ever modify your 4-6 week plan if this market really took off or would you increase the 15% gain goal to 20-25%. Thanks, Billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market, Your stock market model states that in a typical bull market stocks picked will, on average, gain 15% in 4-6 weeks. Many people would still not call this a typical bull market, but your model is working wonderfully. In theory, if this was a "raging bull" market would the 4-6 week period be shortened to say 2-4 weeks? Would you ever modify your 4-6 week plan if this market really took off or would you increase the 15% gain goal to 20-25%. Thanks, Billyjoe

Good question Billy Joe,

What would happen is I would end up turning my picks more frequently and, as a result, compound my gains more rapidly. I remember back in the late 90's I did a few hundred trades when the market was really roaring.

[bknight]

I have a small question about your databases. IF you don't subscribe to all the IBD extras, where do you come up with lists of the eps>90, eps growth, and rs?
Thanks

[mrmarket]

I have a small question about your databases. IF you don't subscribe to all the IBD extras, where do you come up with lists of the eps>90, eps growth, and rs?
Thanks

IBD newspaper and a pencil.

[bknight]

I thought you had a faster way of doing that, but thanks.

[mmcfarli]

Mr Market,

Have you looked at ASFI, PRAA, and ECPG? They're all in the three biggest publicly owned companies in the debt collection business and their fundamentals are very strong. I just bought ASFI today. It looks very undervalued compared to the other three. But I'm thinking of balancing my holdings with the other three because I don't yet have that much confidence in my valuation skills. What are your thoughts?

Mike

"Live long and prosper"

[mrmarket]

Mr Market,

Have you looked at ASFI, PRAA, and ECPG? They're all in the three biggest publicly owned companies in the debt collection business and their fundamentals are very strong. I just bought ASFI today. It looks very undervalued compared to the other three. But I'm thinking of balancing my holdings with the other three because I don't yet have that much confidence in my valuation skills. What are your thoughts?

Mike

"Live long and prosper"

They all look ok, but their price momentum really isn't very strong when compared to their valuations. That doesn't mean you won't make money on them, just that they probably won't finish near the top when I run my model.

[mooddude]

The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?

[mrmarket]

The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?

Usually I do reinvest. I've had stocks drop before, but they almost always eventually reach my sell target, and in most cases they outperform the market in doing so.

[mooddude]

What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?

[mrmarket]

What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?

all of my trades since Jan 1 2002 are listed on my homepage along with the percentage gains. It should be easy enough to average them out, if that's the math you want to perform.

[mooddude]

To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking ;-)

Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.

[jiesen]

To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking ;-)

Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.you don't need the amounts to do the calculation, only relative amounts. if $$MM wanted everyone to know how much $$ he has invested, he'd probably have told us by now.

it would make a lot of sense to just assume an equal weight for each position at the start, since that's the most logical way someone would go about "following the system" if he or she had no reason to think one pick was huger than the other. and you can also assume that the proceeds from each sale are rolled into the following pick, since that's what $$MM has stated is how this model works.

there are of course some instances where these assumptions won't match $$MM's performance exactly- like when multiple sales occur- but the discrepancies would probably mostly cancel each other out, and you'd end up with a pretty good approximation of the returns...

an easier way to do it would just be to ask Karel how his FMM model has been performing, since he's already been doing this calculation for some time now.


5/17
FMM: 20059
SPY: 21805
QQQ: 20972

11/22
FMM: 20951 4.4%
SPY: 21652 -0.7%
QQQ: 21760 3.8%

12/5
FMM: 20606 2.7%
SPY: 21783 -0.1%
QQQ: 22170 5.7%




Actually, I pulled the #'s off of Karel's FMM thread, and it shows that someone starting to follow the method in May 2004 (using Karel's rules... which you can look up in his thread) would be up about 3% as of Dec 5. That's not so huge in itself, but it's still 3% better than the S&P ($$MM tends to compare his performace to this index). Of course, it's also 3% less than what the QQQ has returned in the same period. Now I woudn't expect 6% out the QQQ every 6 months, but out of the FMM port, 3-6% could probably be expected or even surpassed over most 6 month periods.

Please do more of the math and show me if what I said is true or not!

[df21084]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

[mrmarket]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

My commissions are pretty small compared to the total capital in my trade. When you open or close a position is entirely up to you. I'm not a financial advisor, and even if I was, it's your money, not mine.

Nothing I ever say on this website should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a stock.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

Generally I look for price appreciation. Once I had a stock, PORT, which was bought out at a price that would have given me a 14% gain. Fortunately, it paid dividends of about 4% that put me over the top...(phew).

[mrmarket]

Make no mistake. OFG will hit my price target.

[df21084]

FLIR announces 2-1 stock split. Hopefully, this will attract new investors, and the stock price will start to climb.

[Gatorman]

Mr Market:
Some of the stocks have been held for a fairly long time which shows a strong belief in your system. Do you have any triggers that cause you to exit a stock before your goal is reached of a 15% gain. For example: if the news event that helped convince you to enter a postion somehow reversed or changed to the point that you would have viewed it as a negative rather than a positive, would you exit your position?

[mrmarket]

Mr Market:
Some of the stocks have been held for a fairly long time which shows a strong belief in your system. Do you have any triggers that cause you to exit a stock before your goal is reached of a 15% gain. For example: if the news event that helped convince you to enter a postion somehow reversed or changed to the point that you would have viewed it as a negative rather than a positive, would you exit your position?

yes! If something fundamental happens to a company or its industry such that I no longer believe it will outperform the market, I will sell the stock even at below my target price.

Please remember that I generally exclusively buy stocks in companies that have extraordinary revenue and earnings growth. What this means is that if its stock doesn't continue to appreciate in price, the company becomes a better and better value to own. Many in my string of 63 took this path, yet still outperformed the overall market by the time it was sold.

[mooddude]

yes! If something fundamental happens to a company or its industry such that I no longer believe it will outperform the market, I will sell the stock even at below my target price.
How about BEL that appears on your list of open positions? It looks doomed to me, in which regard I would like to ask how your current losses balance with all gains (there seems to be no losses in the past due to not closing such positions)? What is larger taking into account the absolute amounts you invested in each stock? Please note that I'm not trying to reproach your system but rather trying to figure out the final return. If you don't mind, please show the absolutes (discounted by any factor, if you wish).

[mrmarket]

How about BEL that appears on your list of open positions? It looks doomed to me, in which regard I would like to ask how your current losses balance with all gains (there seems to be no losses in the past due to not closing such positions)? What is larger taking into account the absolute amounts you invested in each stock? Please note that I'm not trying to reproach your system but rather trying to figure out the final return. If you don't mind, please show the absolutes (discounted by any factor, if you wish).

My overall returns over the last 14 years are well in excess of market averages. I am sure many of the readers on this forum who have followed me since the Prodigy, AOL and Yahoo days will confirm this fact for you.

I am also fairly certain that BEL will outperform the market next year, therefore I see no reason to sell it. What makes you think it is "doomed"?

What else do you need to know?

[mrmarket]

By the way, Mr. Mooddude, there have been many others before you asking the same kinds of questions. I am giving you the benefit of the doubt and assume your inquiries are sincere, and not being disruptive.

All of those who preceded you have either been "converted" or they have disappeared. One of these gentlemen goes by the name of Karel (when I was over at the Motley Fool), who runs this Board. What does that fact tell you?

I'll give you one guess. We're not here to lose money.

[B.J]

Hey Mr. Market. Newbie here. Thanks for creating this forum. Interesting stuff.

I do agree that an 8% sell is a rather ridiculous criteria, especially if diversified with more than 3 stocks. But don't you think you'd do better if you threw in the towel on certain stocks at some point. The other user asked about BEL, which right now has a RS=1 and EPS=18 and wouldn't pass your current screens.

My question is, have you ever considered adding a sell criteria to your model that would kick stocks out when EPS or RS deteriorated? Even if, as you mentioned, one of the stocks you were down in were to outperform the market, do you think it'd be better to sell, then pony up those proceeds on something that passes your current screens and has a chance of doing even better?

Overall, it's a very interesting system. Stay in for as short-term as possible to avoid the hits is a sound strategy. I can't tell you how many 30% gains of mine have evaporated.

[mrmarket]

Hey Mr. Market. Newbie here. Thanks for creating this forum. Interesting stuff.

I do agree that an 8% sell is a rather ridiculous criteria, especially if diversified with more than 3 stocks. But don't you think you'd do better if you threw in the towel on certain stocks at some point. The other user asked about BEL, which right now has a RS=1 and EPS=18 and wouldn't pass your current screens.

My question is, have you ever considered adding a sell criteria to your model that would kick stocks out when EPS or RS deteriorated? Even if, as you mentioned, one of the stocks you were down in were to outperform the market, do you think it'd be better to sell, then pony up those proceeds on something that passes your current screens and has a chance of doing even better?

Overall, it's a very interesting system. Stay in for as short-term as possible to avoid the hits is a sound strategy. I can't tell you how many 30% gains of mine have evaporated.

Let's write down BEL's price today and that of the S&P 500....let's make a note to check them both on June 30, 2005 and see which one went up more.

[B.J]

LOL! That won't be necessary.

You don't need to defend BEL to me or anyone. Your record speaks for itself.

Just asking for your insight, that's all. Basically I was just wondering if you ever tweak your system. I could give a rat's ass about BEL :smile:

[blessed]

OK i understand your approach and so far have profited in your picks I currently am in Flir ,CME,and CMN.....I would like to ask what you think of TONS?

[New-born baby]

Blessed,

Great name! Welcome to the group. And best investing to you.

[john]

Mr Market you are huge. Thank you again for putting some nice Presidents in my account ahead of time.

[mrmarket]

Mr Market you are huge. Thank you again for putting some nice Presidents in my account ahead of time.

No thanks required as it was YOU who put the Presidents in your own account. I am not a financial advisor, therefore I do not recommend any buys or sells.

I am merely HUGE.

[gadgeted]

But somehow I missed the e-mail on GGI until today I received your sold e-mail. Looks like i missed out on a quick one. Any ideas why I didn't receive the e-mail on 1/9/05?

[mrmarket]

But somehow I missed the e-mail on GGI until today I received your sold e-mail. Looks like i missed out on a quick one. Any ideas why I didn't receive the e-mail on 1/9/05?

probably because the email was sent on 1/9/04.

[jiesen]

But somehow I missed the e-mail on GGI until today I received your sold e-mail. Looks like i missed out on a quick one. Any ideas why I didn't receive the e-mail on 1/9/05?

because it was WHC when he bought it a year ago (1/9/04)

[stocks54]

MrMarket,

I did not recieve your sold email for GGI.

Regards,

[Karel]

Correct, we are having some problems. Most people haven't received it.

regards,

Karel

[mmm]

with such a negative trend will you be waiting.. i am not familiar with the details of the model used... does it consider the big picture or is it ony a bottoms up picking method... maybe there is somewhere I should go tosee the details of the model... if so please direct me

[Karel]

with such a negative trend will you be waiting.. i am not familiar with the details of the model used... does it consider the big picture or is it ony a bottoms up picking method... maybe there is somewhere I should go tosee the details of the model... if so please direct me
The info, or rather the pointer, is in the very first post of this thread. The word lazy comes to mind.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

Correct, we are having some problems. Most people haven't received it.

regards,

Karel

Hey, I want a refund! ...oh yea, this site is FREE! Never mind....Keep up the great work!

[bec1nj]

Just wanted to thank you Ernie and Karel for all your tips. I have "reformed" and think you all are HUGE!
Bruce

[jiesen]

Just wanted to thank you Ernie and Karel for all your tips. I have "reformed" and think you all are HUGE!
Bruce

wow! I never thought I'd live to see this...

welcome aboard, Bruce! headbanging is a lot more fun when you realize it doesn't have to be done against a brick wall, eh?

[bec1nj]

My apologies to you for the past, and I now know what you mean by the headbanging after some soul searching. Best wishes and hope you are doing well and are doing HUGELY well with your investing. It really is quite something to see this board now with its members and Ernie's thorough research and to appreciate it for what it is. The site has really come a long way and the people who are part of it deserve the credit.
Bruce

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market,
For those of us not too familiar with the New England area could you explain a little about the history of the New England Patriots? Weren't they once the Boston Patriots , actually playing in Boston? Thanks.
billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr.Market,
For those of us not too familiar with the New England area could you explain a little about the history of the New England Patriots? Weren't they once the Boston Patriots , actually playing in Boston? Thanks.
billyjoe

Yes..they actually played at Fenway Park. When the new stadium was built in Foxboro (25 miles south of Boston) they didn't think it was appropriate to call them the Boston Patriots anymore. So the first name was the "Bay State Patriots" but everyone hated that, so they switched to New England. I think this was in the early 70's.

[Gatorman]

Yes..they actually played at Fenway Park. When the new stadium was built in Foxboro (25 miles south of Boston) they didn't think it was appropriate to call them the Boston Patriots anymore. So the first name was the "Bay State Patriots" but everyone hated that, so they switched to New England. I think this was in the early 70's.
As a matter of fact, didn't they have a fullback named Billy Jo?

[billyjoe]

Gatorman,
You must be a semi-oldtimer if you remember Billy Joe. I know he played for Buffalo, but I don't know about Boston. Was looking at google and there was mention of the New York Titans. A gym teacher at my old school supposedly played for the New York Titans. He got fired for throwing students against the lockers. This would have been in about 1963.
billyjoe

[Gatorman]

Gatorman,
You must be a semi-oldtimer if you remember Billy Joe. I know he played for Buffalo, but I don't know about Boston. Was looking at google and there was mention of the New York Titans. A gym teacher at my old school supposedly played for the New York Titans. He got fired for throwing students against the lockers. This would have been in about 1963.
billyjoe
Guilty as charged. I may be worn but I ain't worn out. I also believe their quarterback was a Kentucky boy named Babe Parilli. 1963 was the year I graduated from high school. We had several teachers like that but they were justified in most everything they did. We deserved it.

[bec1nj]

Actually Babe Parilli is the answer to a great trivia question (being a Jets fan it is close to my heart with Super Bowl III), namely: in addition to Joe Namath, who is the only other Jet to throw a pass in Super Bowl history? Answer is Parilli as for a moment Joe Willie was on the sidelines due to a minor injury. Parilli also was the holder for Jim Turner (placekicker) and was known as a superb holder who could rescue a bad snap and turn it into a successful field goal.

[margaret]

Mr. Market - I have really enjoyed the website and always enjoy your stock analysis. You have a lovely family also; we plan on investing with you this year and, of course, we will do due diligence on your stock picks; thank you for your helpful service.

Margaret & Clayton

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market - I have really enjoyed the website and always enjoy your stock analysis. You have a lovely family also; we plan on investing with you this year and, of course, we will do due diligence on your stock picks; thank you for your helpful service.

Margaret & Clayton

Thanks for your nice note and kind words. I think you have all of your bases covered.

[ParkTwain]

hi ernie,

Couple of book recommendations:

"How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market" by Nicholas Darvas. Originally published in 1960, written by a professional dancer (i.e., not a finance professional) who used simple chart-based techniques to find and profit from stocks with rising prices.

"Trading as a Business" by Charlie F. Wright. Lays out how to go from a method of finding stocks to trade to full-blown system trading.

[CabrioM3]

Hi Ernie,
I am somewhat new around here and am impressed with the people that frequent your website. I have read the IBD for many years and in the last two years began trying to educate myself to charting, I take some things from the canslim method but don't agree with all of won's ways.

Anyway, When I can I read through your threads. I have been wondering how does the overall market affect your trading? Do you sell out at market tops in order to avoid loss? In reading deep into your threads I see others remark about the market, but don't really see any dedicated threads and wonder why? For example this week has been tentative in the market, low volume, no conviction ...etc, would you still buy something this week?

I personally try to raise cash when the market goes south and have many times bought back the same stocks cheaper. Problem is I get greedy and lose sight of the fact that quick moves usually retrace just as fast. So I am trying to work on that personal issue which is what I like about your model!

Thanks for the website!

John

[mrmarket]

Hi Ernie,
I am somewhat new around here and am impressed with the people that frequent your website. I have read the IBD for many years and in the last two years began trying to educate myself to charting, I take some things from the canslim method but don't agree with all of won's ways.

Anyway, When I can I read through your threads. I have been wondering how does the overall market affect your trading? Do you sell out at market tops in order to avoid loss? In reading deep into your threads I see others remark about the market, but don't really see any dedicated threads and wonder why? For example this week has been tentative in the market, low volume, no conviction ...etc, would you still buy something this week?

I personally try to raise cash when the market goes south and have many times bought back the same stocks cheaper. Problem is I get greedy and lose sight of the fact that quick moves usually retrace just as fast. So I am trying to work on that personal issue which is what I like about your model!

Thanks for the website!

John

I don't know how to time the market. Frankly, I don't really know anyone who does know how to time the market. My goal, simply put, is to beat the market. I do this buy picking sticks in companies that are:

- moving up in price
- of superior quality to the average company in the market
- a better value than the rest of the market, relative to its growth

I feel if I hit all 3 of these attributes, I will outperform the market. In the long run, outperforming the market is a money making strategy.

[CabrioM3]

Thank you for your reply. You answered my Question, So you don't take the overall trend of the market into consideration when you select and finally make you purchase of sale.

I look forward to learning lots more from your website,


John

[gloria]

Dear Mr. Market,
I am wondering if you are still holding CMN as this was one of your most recent stock picks?
Thanks

[casinoboy3]

Dear Mr. Market,
I am wondering if you are still holding CMN as this was one of your most recent stock picks?
Thanks

Mr. Market is currently holding CMN and will sell when it reaches 29.00.

[gloria]

What has Mr. Market bought today or this week? I am sorry but this website is not easy to follow but confusing to me. THANKS

[stockedup]

Gloria, it's confusing to me too. It wouold be nice to learn and it be easier to find and learn.

[casinoboy3]

Didn't want to start a new thread, but
MM, will you be seeing Bruce on the upcoming tour??

[mrmarket]

Yes. If someone gets me a ticket.

[casinoboy3]

Yes. If someone gets me a ticket.

Oh, tickets for Philly/Jersey may be a little difficult. I might have an extra for Cleveland, but that's quite a distance from Jersey. Anyway, hope you get one!

[dmk112]

MM,

Did you watch the Boston VS. Yankees game? That fan was very close to getting his lights punched out by Sheffield.. He's one you don't want to mess with!

[Iggy]

Huge one;

Question. Have you ever analyzed how quickly a pick gets to certain benchmarks? Up 5%, up 7%, up 12.3%? It is just a vague impression that I get from following some of your picks, that often a stock will lose steam before hitting the 15% mark, and occasionally fall even below the purchase price once a bit of that momentum is lost.

In any case, if you found that your picks on average took 8 trading days to go up 12%, and 13 days to go up 15%, would it not be more beneficial to change your sell target?

Of course; this type of math is over my head, so I won't be doing it...;)

Great stuff - I'm definitely getting more use out of the board as my experience in all things market grows.

[coachgbw]

Iggy consider this:

Some facts to consider when MM makes a deal:

Out of 66 winners 10 of them are under 6 days

Out of 66 winners 17 are under 25 days

So if ya stick with his picks 34% of the time you will gain 15 % in 25 days
or less.

He must be eatin the rite veggies and cheese!!!

My coachin hat is off to the man!!!!!

[Websman]

Hey, whatever happened to the Portrait Gallery? It would be great if I could post some pics of myself so the chicks would have something to drool over...besides Mr Market, of course.

[Iggy]

For the sake of argument, I’ll ignore intra-day highs for calculating the potential gain – but will mention what they were. My theory is that an 8% sell target would mark a quicker turnover, and less risk of a big fall. Since his winners obviously reached 8% and MORE, I’ll ignore them for now – but perhaps it would be interesting one day to chart how quickly they reached certain marks.

I’m just going to post what I find, right or wrong.

PTSI, Purchased 4/5/2002 @ 24.84:
Price Target: $28.90
Highest Close: $26.85 on 6/27/2002
Highest Intra-Day: $27.50 on 6/19/2003
Potential Gain: 8.1%
Current: -32.8%

PRX, Purchased 9/18/2003 @ 72.40:
Price Target: $83.70
Highest Close: $74.71 on 12/2/2003
Highest Intra-Day: $75.44 on 12/2/2003
Potential Gain: 3.2%
Current: -54.1%

CBK, Purchased 10/20/2003 @ $29.38:
Price Target: $33.90
Highest Close: $29.65 on 10/21/2003
Highest Intra-Day: $30.55 on 11/3/2003
Potential Gain: 0.9%
Current: -39.7%

BEL, Purchased 1/2/2004 @ $21.12:
Price Target: $24.40
Highest Close: $21.78 on 1/5/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $21.89 on 1/5/2004
Potential Gain: 3.1%
Current: -86.7%

SSNC, Purchased 2/12/2004 @ $29.60:
Price Target: $34.10
Highest Close: $33.53 on 2/27/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $34.23 on 2/27/2004
Potential Gain: 13.3%
Current: -22.4%

AACE, Purchaed 3/5/2004 @ $31.34:
Price Target: $36.20
Highest Close: $31.95 on 3/5/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $32.40 on 3/5/2004
Potential Gain: 1.9%
Current: -30.9%

OFG, Purchased 4/5/2004 @ $29.01:
Price Target: $33.50
Highest Close: --
Highest Intra-Day: --
Potential Gain: 0%
Current: -19.7% (Now down over 50% due to a recent plunge – was never higher than on day of purchase)

NUTR, Purchased 5/28/2004 @ $24.21:
Price Target: $28.10
Highest Close: $26.76 on 6/4/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $27.62 on 6/7/2004
Potential Gain: 10.5%
Current: -34.5%

DW, Purchased 6/22/2004 @ $38.37:
Price Target: $44.30
Highest Close: $41.01 on 6/28/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $41.59 on 6/28/2004
Potential Gain: 6.9%
Current: +2.0% (Stock is currently up, I limited the time for “Potential Gain” to one month from purchase date).

NUS, Purchased 7/8/2004 $24.29:
Price Target: $28.00
Highest Close: $27.38 on 7/28/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $28.15 on 7/28/2004
Potential Gain: 12.7%
Current: -7.4%

FLIR, Purchased 8/5/2004 @ $31.28:
Price Target: $36.30
Highest Close: $32.96 on 8/23/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $33.34 on 8/23/2004
Potential Gain: 5.4%
Current: -3.5% (Stock went as high as $34.95 this February, I limited the time for “Potential Gain” to one month again)

CME, Purchased 12/15/2004 @ $224.74:
Price Target: $259.40
Highest Close: $227.49 on 12/30/2004
Highest Intra-Day: $230.25 on 1/3/2005
Potential Gain: 1.2%
Current: -16.0%

ARLP, Purchased 1/21/2005 @ $70.30:
Price Target: $81.20
Highest Close: $79.75 on 3/5/2005
Highest Intra-Day: $80.99 on 3/7/2005
Potential Gain: 13.4%
Current: -6.8%

CMTL, Purchased 3/29/2005 @ $33.70:
Price Target: $38.90
Highest Close: $36.20 (Today, 5/5/2005)
Highest Intra-Day $36.77 (Today)
Potential Gain: 7.4%
Current: +7.4%

Of the 14 picks currently being held by Mr. Market, 5 could have been sold at an 8% gain fairly quickly after the purchase date (not counting CMTL – which I fully expect to hit 15%). Two more could have been sold at a 5% gain. Would a greater turnover in those 5 “pick slots” and a potentially more rapid turnover in the winners department have made up the difference of 8% to 15%? Or, are you just needlessly exposing yourself to excess risk by turning over stocks as many analysts would suggest?

Perhaps the best system is to always have flexible goals? If a stock doesn’t achieve that 15% in the 3-4 week outlook, perhaps lower expectations rather than ride out a fall?

Just set stop limits as others on here have recommended to avoid the BEL’s and OFG’s?

I don’t know. Stuff to think about. Some more.

[james75a]

Ernie: I've just joined and already I'm about to say "who loves ya, baby". I'm looking forward to many happy times as an acolyte of yours in the world of finance Happy days and happy thoughts to you and yours. James75a

[RL]

Ernie, Are you the same Mr. Market that has been posting on the Lizzard swamp group?

[mrmarket]

Ernie, Are you the same Mr. Market that has been posting on the Lizzard swamp group?

I have posted there infrequently. If someone else is posting regularly it is not me.

[RL]

No the posting Is very Infrequent, thanks for your reply.

[bknight]

So what is the newest big winner?

[TraverseTramp]

Having all the IBD extras is required to run this model? Has anybody found another way? Are there any additional pointers on how and where to look for the information needed? I couldn't get past step one without IBD chart service.
I'm trying to be serious about day trading here with Real Tick. The best advice I can give is start on TALX first, 300 a month for a ton of lessons and don't keep any loaded guns in the house.....Later, Traverse Tramp

[New-born baby]

Having all the IBD extras is required to run this model? Has anybody found another way? Are there any additional pointers on how and where to look for the information needed? I couldn't get past step one without IBD chart service.
I'm trying to be serious about day trading here with Real Tick. The best advice I can give is start on TALX first, 300 a month for a ton of lessons and don't keep any loaded guns in the house.....Later, Traverse Tramp

Please talk a little about TALX. I'd be very interested to hear what you have to say. Thanks!

[mrmarket]

Having all the IBD extras is required to run this model? Has anybody found another way? Are there any additional pointers on how and where to look for the information needed? I couldn't get past step one without IBD chart service.
I'm trying to be serious about day trading here with Real Tick. The best advice I can give is start on TALX first, 300 a month for a ton of lessons and don't keep any loaded guns in the house.....Later, Traverse Tramp

Karel has built a model with MSN screeners which replicates my model. IBD is not needed.

[Karel]

Karel has built a model with MSN screeners which replicates my model. IBD is not needed.
You'll find my approximation in this thread (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=3). You can discuss it in this one (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=273).

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

You'll find my approximation in this thread (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=3). You can discuss it in this one (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=273).

Regards,

Karel
Thanks, Karel! For this and all that you do for us here.

[ParkTwain]

Hi Ernie,

I can't help but notice in your results table at your website that of your 12 most recently closed trades (those since 6/1/2004), only 4 have resulted in an annual return basis of > 50%. Which would make that stretch just about your toughest since you started tracking your trades (1/1/2002). Do you have any comments for the board about the idea that your recent results are perhaps like a light (or maybe like a moving average measure) being shone on the growth portion of the overall stock market? I find this to be very interesting. It's certainly not a knock on you, but rather perhaps an indication of the "life cycle" for growth-oriented near-term investing within the greater market's longer bull cycle that perhaps we should learn something from.

Also, 3 of your positions (ARLP, TOL, and HANS) opened since 1/1/2005 are in pretty good shape as of today. :)

//PT

[mrmarket]

Hi Ernie,

I can't help but notice in your results table at your website that of your 12 most recently closed trades (those since 6/1/2004), only 4 have resulted in an annual return basis of > 50%. Which would make that stretch just about your toughest since you started tracking your trades (1/1/2002). Do you have any comments for the board about the idea that your recent results are perhaps like a light (or maybe like a moving average measure) being shone on the growth portion of the overall stock market? I find this to be very interesting. It's certainly not a knock on you, but rather perhaps an indication of the "life cycle" for growth-oriented near-term investing within the greater market's longer bull cycle that perhaps we should learn something from.

Also, 3 of your positions (ARLP, TOL, and HANS) opened since 1/1/2005 are in pretty good shape as of today. :)

//PT

That's the way it works. Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what is happening in the overall market. In a bear market, obviously there will be fewer than in a bull market.

I'm proud of my model in that I am able to find winners even when the overall market is being stingy. Back in 1999 (I think it was 1999) , I had about 100 winners in one year. (Boy that was a good year). In some other years, I only had 10 or so.

If some of you stick around long enough, you'll see how this cycle works. Hopefully we'll all be together when we see another year where I get 100 winners. Then this board will be rockin.

[diogenes]

While I think the reason behind the r^2 calculation is listed someplace on this site, I seem to be unable to find it and my spreadsheet sight-reading skills are not so good. Perhaps, someone would be kind enough to elaborate on it?

[mrmarket]

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that what ultimately drives a stock price is its earnings. Growing earnings and revenues are the foundation. The derivative of this earnings growth is its stock price climb.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that if a stock can demonstrate a steady price climb through 3 quarterly earnings releases, then it is more likely than not that it will continue this climb over the short run.

A steady price climb can be captured by running a time series regression analysis of a stock's price vs. time. The stock with the highest r^2 coefficient is the one that has deviated the least from its climb over the period that the daily prices were measured. This is a good indicator of price momentum.

Stocks that have deviated from the steady slope show that they may be more likely to deviate up or down and I seek to avoid stocks that have this randomness. These stocks will have lower r^2 coefficients.

Hope this helps.

[billyjoe]

And that is why you know what the graph of a Mr.Market selection will look like before you look it up.
billyjoe

[diogenes]

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that what ultimately drives a stock price is its earnings. Growing earnings and revenues are the foundation. The derivative of this earnings growth is its stock price climb.

$$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that if a stock can demonstrate a steady price climb through 3 quarterly earnings releases, then it is more likely than not that it will continue this climb over the short run.

A steady price climb can be captured by running a time series regression analysis of a stock's price vs. time. The stock with the highest r^2 coefficient is the one that has deviated the least from its climb over the period that the daily prices were measured. This is a good indicator of price momentum.

Stocks that have deviated from the steady slope show that they may be more likely to deviate up or down and I seek to avoid stocks that have this randomness. These stocks will have lower r^2 coefficients.

Hope this helps.


Thanks for the reply.
It contained the information that I needed.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,

Who are those hot babes , I mean attractive young ladies in your newest photo gallery? Does Mrs. Market know about them? We realize you excel in all areas, but you don't have to rub it in.

billyjoe

[B.J]

Is that picture (photo gallery) of the wrestlers in body paint and spikes the Road Warriors? Is it you and a buddy dressed up as the Road Warriors?

[Zenprofit]

Scientific Proof of why MM is a Genius


For all you high-brow thinkers, sink your brain matter into this scientific paper:

http://www.bauer.uh.edu/TGeorge/papers/gh4-paper.pdf

The 52-Week High and Momentum Investing
THOMAS J. GEORGE and CHUAN YANG HWANG
ABSTRACT

When coupled with a stock’s current price, a readily available piece of information—the 52-week high price explains a large portion of the profits from momentum investing. Nearness to the 52-week high dominates and improves upon the forecasting power of past returns (both individual and industry returns) for future returns. Future returns forecast using the 52-week high do not reverse in the long run.These results indicate that short-term momentum and long-term reversals are largely separate phenomena, which presents a challenge to current theory that models these aspects of security returns as integrated components of the market’s response to news.

[B.J]

Is that picture (photo gallery) of the wrestlers in body paint and spikes the Road Warriors? Is it you and a buddy dressed up as the Road Warriors?

Man, if Hawk and Animal weren't enough, I also see a picture from "The Warriors". Keep the pix coming!

[mrmarket]

Man, if Hawk and Animal weren't enough, I also see a picture from "The Warriors". Keep the pix coming!

You sees what you get when you mess with the Orphans?

[billyjoe]

Mr.Mkt.,
I'm getting older and my memory isn't what it used to be, but didn't you once own EENC and make a nice profit on it? Maybe I just dreamed it, but why does EENC seem so familiar to me? Was someone on this forum heavily into it? Thought I also owned it and did well, but can't find any record of it. Maybe I just need more sleep.

billyjoe

[mrmarket]

I never bought EENC

[mrmarket]

but EENC has been in my data dumps several times.

[New-born baby]

but EENC has been in my data dumps several times.

Are you kidding? Maybe you secretly have a dump for shorts . . . .

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market,
I think you're messing with our minds. Your photo gallery, which I just figured out how to change pictures after 2 years, contains some bizzare photos. I apologize if they're your relatives or childhood photos, but they look alien to me, especially those 3 little guys. Haven't been able to get that one to reappear.


billyjoe

[noshadyldy]

Well do tell, Bill Joe, because I never knew you could either. So how?

[noshadyldy]

Never mind. I just figured it out. nice!http://mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

[Websman]

Never mind. I just figured it out. nice!http://mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

When I grow up and get muscles, I'm going to post my pictures for all to see. :)

[Websman]

Mr Market, You're well on your way to 100 consecutive profitable trades, which shows that you are the worlds greatest stock picker. Your model consitently outperforms the market. It's amazing!

Although your success in picking winners is incredible, I have a new and unique idea... What if your model were to be used to scan for the least fundamentally attractive stocks? Have you ever thougth of shorting stocks for 15% gains? You could be even huger by having 74 consecutive short trades to go along with your long trade streak! You would make history!!! Just imagine the possiblities!

Am I a crazy??? Am I mad??? Am I a Freakin lunatic???

Bwahahahaaa!!!....err...BWAAAAHAHAHAAAHAHAHA!!!

[billyjoe]

Great idea Webs, how about a test run just for laughs? I'd like to know the worst companies in the world, heck I may have worked for them.



billyjoe

[olrac_ed]

Although I cannot curently match the current record of Mr. Market, these are the stocks I currently own with their purchase price and I await any comments or suggestions:

CNXS - $26.00
COH - $32.00
IBA - $20.00

[Lyehopper]

I never bought EENC

Hey Ernie.... Do you have a list somewhere of your 74 winning trades with dates? And do you have a list of current stocks held?

~Lye

[Websman]

Hey Ernie.... Do you have a list somewhere of your 74 winning trades with dates? And do you have a list of current stocks held?

~Lye

He has a link to his personal website, with all his trades listed here.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=60&postcount=1

[Lyehopper]

Great idea Webs, how about a test run just for laughs? I'd like to know the worst companies in the world, heck I may have worked for them.



billyjoe


Hey BJ, I have determined that the "worst" companies ain't always the best shorts. Market timing has much to do with it. Just as $$$ Mr. Market $$$ says "Every day hundreds of stocks are setting new highs" .... Also true is the fact that (especially when market conditions dictate) hundreds of good stocks are (begining to) retracing 15-30% as they consolidate .... Look at FRGB for example. It was a good short when Ernie bought it a few weeks ago. Figure out when to short sell a "winner" and you'll be truely HUGE!

You'll notice in the contest this week that I shorted a couple of pretty good stocks along with my usual "stinkers". BTW BJ, why ain't you playin?

~Lye

[Lyehopper]

He has a link to his personal website, with all his trades listed here.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=60&postcount=1

Thanks Webs.... WOW! Impressive list and annualized earnings.... VERY HUGE! Makes his stinkers not look so bad right?

Webs, Why don't you start a "short" thread. I'd read/participate in that for sure.

[mrmarket]

Mr Market, You're well on your way to 100 consecutive profitable trades, which shows that you are the worlds greatest stock picker. Your model consitently outperforms the market. It's amazing!

Although your success in picking winners is incredible, I have a new and unique idea... What if your model were to be used to scan for the least fundamentally attractive stocks? Have you ever thougth of shorting stocks for 15% gains? You could be even huger by having 74 consecutive short trades to go along with your long trade streak! You would make history!!! Just imagine the possiblities!

Am I a crazy??? Am I mad??? Am I a Freakin lunatic???

Bwahahahaaa!!!....err...BWAAAAHAHAHAAAHAHAHA!!!

Since the market is upwardly biased, meaning in the long run it alwats goes up, I have committed to only investing on the long side.

[Websman]

Since the market is upwardly biased, meaning in the long run it alwats goes up, I have committed to only investing on the long side.

Ok...so I'm a freaking lunatic. :)

[olrac_ed]

These are some stocks I am looking at.

MCO NVY CHRW

They look like good candidates. Appreciate any comments.

Carlo

[noshadyldy]

Ok...so I'm a freaking lunatic. :)

Well, on you, it looks good! Actually, i would just say you're good at thinking outside of the box.http://mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

[Websman]

Well, on you, it looks good! Actually, i would just say you're good at thinking outside of the box.http://mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Thanks Noshady! Now I feel more normal.

[mystiky]

Not trying to get to personal but when you take a position in a stock, do you usually buy the same number of shares, or do you make a decision to buy up to a certain $$ amount of stock.

Example, if you were to invest for 1000 shares of CMTL at $33, that means it cost you $33K. But if you wanted to do 1000 shares of BMHC at $88, that would had cost you $88K.

Can you please share some of your insight?

[mrmarket]

Not trying to get to personal but when you take a position in a stock, do you usually buy the same number of shares, or do you make a decision to buy up to a certain $$ amount of stock.

Example, if you were to invest for 1000 shares of CMTL at $33, that means it cost you $33K. But if you wanted to do 1000 shares of BMHC at $88, that would had cost you $88K.

Can you please share some of your insight?


Basically it depends on how much I like the opportunity.

[scifos]

Hey MrMarket, I've got a few questions for you if you don't mind.

I just finished reading "The little book that beats the market" by Joel Greenblatt.
If I remember right, you got a degree from Wharton, did you ever know or meet Mr Greenblatt? Did you take any of his classes and what did you think?

The book is about finding businesses that have a high Return on Capital. The idea being that high ROC businesses have the opportunity to reinvest their earnings at a very high rate of return, thus driving up earnings.

The book also says that you should buy businesses with a high Earnings Yield (ie low P/E ratio). Essentially, the strategy is to equally weight the ROC rank and the Earnings Yield Rank and select the top 25-30 stocks. (diversification is required because individual companies may qualify because of weird reasons, but out of a larger # of stocks most will be in the portfolio for the right reasons) Eventually the market will realize that these businesses are being sold for much too cheap and will reward the people who bought them when the earnings yield was high.

Ugh, thats getting too long. anyways, what's your take on this strategy? is seems similar to what you do, but you also look at recent price action (high r-squared, near highs) and you look more at EPS than ROC. Just wanted your comments.

[mrmarket]

Hey MrMarket, I've got a few questions for you if you don't mind.

I just finished reading "The little book that beats the market" by Joel Greenblatt.
If I remember right, you got a degree from Wharton, did you ever know or meet Mr Greenblatt? Did you take any of his classes and what did you think?

The book is about finding businesses that have a high Return on Capital. The idea being that high ROC businesses have the opportunity to reinvest their earnings at a very high rate of return, thus driving up earnings.

The book also says that you should buy businesses with a high Earnings Yield (ie low P/E ratio). Essentially, the strategy is to equally weight the ROC rank and the Earnings Yield Rank and select the top 25-30 stocks. (diversification is required because individual companies may qualify because of weird reasons, but out of a larger # of stocks most will be in the portfolio for the right reasons) Eventually the market will realize that these businesses are being sold for much too cheap and will reward the people who bought them when the earnings yield was high.

Ugh, thats getting too long. anyways, what's your take on this strategy? is seems similar to what you do, but you also look at recent price action (high r-squared, near highs) and you look more at EPS than ROC. Just wanted your comments.


I never met Joel Greenblatt. I think his basic analysis makes sense, however, it is kind of like looking in the rear view mirror rather than looking straight ahead. Having said that, all things being equal, investing in high ROC companies does make sense, relative to companies with lower ROC's. The problem comes in the accounting geeks, who can play with numbers and thus change the value of the invested capital. Check out EVA, or economic value added, for a more consistent bench mark.

[scifos]

I never met Joel Greenblatt. I think his basic analysis makes sense, however, it is kind of like looking in the rear view mirror rather than looking straight ahead. Having said that, all things being equal, investing in high ROC companies does make sense, relative to companies with lower ROC's. The problem comes in the accounting geeks, who can play with numbers and thus change the value of the invested capital. Check out EVA, or economic value added, for a more consistent bench mark.

Thanks for the response. I would agree that ROC can be misleading, espically if you only consider last year's numbers, because last year may have been an unusual one (another reason why he suggests holding 30 stocks, to reduce the chances that a large portion of your funds is in a 'fake'). How does one find EVA though? As for looking in the rear view mirror, yeah thats what it does, and he says in his book that if you are an expert and can accurately predict future earnings then by all means use that prediction instead of data from the past. But for people who can't do that consistantly and accurately (that would include most people i think) then using last years (or perhaps the last few years) works decently if you hold a basket of stocks.

FYI, the book touts an average APR of 33% over the last 17 years (may be biased because it is backtesting, not performance numbers from real-time use). I did some math and found that a 10,000 investment now, if I retire at 55 I'll have 34,669,534.26 [10000(1.33*.97)^(55-23)] the .97 is assuming a 3% inflation rate) minus taxes.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
Have you volunteered for the Stardust@home project ?


billyjoe

[gerihearne]

Had an idea .. what if there was a place for us newcomers to market could ask our questions. I'm learning alot from senior members, but i think our own thread for junior members would be less intimidating .. a place to share our questions and our trades?
Senior members could visit and offer their opinions.
Just a suggestion ... don't know if you feel it's necessary, being that this site is SO user friendly. But, still many are new to the market and maybe more junior members would post their questions and concerns ...
Karel?

[skiracer]

Had an idea .. what if there was a place for us newcomers to market could ask our questions. I'm learning alot from senior members, but i think our own thread for junior members would be less intimidating .. a place to share our questions and our trades?
Senior members could visit and offer their opinions.
Just a suggestion ... don't know if you feel it's necessary, being that this site is SO user friendly. But, still many are new to the market and maybe more junior members would post their questions and concerns ...
Karel?

Nah. Just throw any questions you have or suggestions out there like you've been doing it forever. Someone will answer it or try to help you. You're only going to pick up the experience from interacting with the more experienced people. If all the newbies were grouped together in one area what would you learn from other newbies. And would the more experience traders want to visit newbieland just to see what's going on in there. In the meantime read every post and learn to decipher between what you're looking for and what's going to be helpful and what's not. Pick up a good book on technical analysis and watch what others are buying and study those buys like they're your own. You'll bring yourself up to speed faster that way than any other way. But it's work.

[IIC]

Had an idea .. what if there was a place for us newcomers to market could ask our questions. I'm learning alot from senior members, but i think our own thread for junior members would be less intimidating .. a place to share our questions and our trades?
Senior members could visit and offer their opinions.
Just a suggestion ... don't know if you feel it's necessary, being that this site is SO user friendly. But, still many are new to the market and maybe more junior members would post their questions and concerns ...
Karel?

One of my 3,156 Sayings to Live By is..."The Smartest people Ask The Most Questions"

I think a lot of people are afraid to ask questions because they don't want to sound stupid...Another one of my sayings is "The only stupid question is the one that is never asked".

ASK! ASK! ASK!...Best...Doug(IIC)

[Shadow]

Had an idea .. what if there was a place for us newcomers to market could ask our questions. I'm learning alot from senior members, but i think our own thread for junior members would be less intimidating .. a place to share our questions and our trades?
Senior members could visit and offer their opinions.
Just a suggestion ... don't know if you feel it's necessary, being that this site is SO user friendly. But, still many are new to the market and maybe more junior members would post their questions and concerns ...
Karel?

Hi Gerihearne,

I'm just like you and had the same idea. I started a thread for
just this purpose. It's been buried a few pages back. I'll try to
bring it forward for you.

Welcome and may we both learn together!

Shadow

[sisterwin2]

Had an idea .. what if there was a place for us newcomers to market could ask our questions. I'm learning alot from senior members, but i think our own thread for junior members would be less intimidating .. a place to share our questions and our trades?
Senior members could visit and offer their opinions.
Just a suggestion ... don't know if you feel it's necessary, being that this site is SO user friendly. But, still many are new to the market and maybe more junior members would post their questions and concerns ...
Karel?

I have never been tease or made fun of for my questions. I have been told when I made a mistake but only with the best of intentions. This is not aol. board.... these guys are really great.

[ParkTwain]

$$MM$$, looks like this is the scope of your competition in stock chat boards:
http://www.boardcentral.com/

[AudiQuattro]

Have you ever considered upping the 15% cuttoff in bullish times when there is increased volatility? Like say you are living in 1997 and you think that the internet will be huge so you buy some CMGI and wait for a double. Have you ever considered a shorting strategy? Also, why do you not have a stop loss? I noticed that BEL is down 81% from when you bought it. Finally, I am interested in beginning to lift weights. I am 31 years old. Do you have any suggestions of books that I might read that are informative on the subject?

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
I'm the last person you'd ever go to for investment advice, but WWE has got to be the perfect stock for you. Just a couple day's ration of meat and cheese money could make you even wealthier than you already are.


billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market,
I'm the last person you'd ever go to for investment advice, but WWE has got to be the perfect stock for you. Just a couple day's ration of meat and cheese money could make you even wealthier than you already are.


billyjoe


I own it in my "buy and die" portfolio...I love reading the annual reports.

[ParkTwain]

Did some quick percentages on $$MM$$'s present open positions (3/10/2006):

Pick ... 3/10/2006 closing price as % of goal price

FRGB ... 84.2%
PTSI ... 81.7%
MFLX ... 78.1%
KBH ... 66.4%
AACE ... 66.2%
CNXS ... 64.8%
CBK ... 64.7%
NUS ... 62.1%
TOL ... 54.3%
NUTR ... 53.4%
OFG ... 40.7%
PRX ... 33.3%
BEL ... 18.8%

[ASER]

Hello to All
This is my first post.
I find this forum when researching the net about a software, but looks like this forum have some fun.
Thank you for sharing your page, congratulations for 81 winners, but you never sold the losers, you keep losers with 78%, if you keep the loser's forever and sold only the winners, of course you have only winners.
Your strategy may be good but you may have to sale the losers when down like 8 or 10%, and my question is: any of the winners sold, went down 10% during the time you own them?

Happy trading with a lot of fun

Antonio

[mrmarket]

Hello to All
This is my first post.
I find this forum when researching the net about a software, but looks like this forum have some fun.
Thank you for sharing your page, congratulations for 81 winners, but you never sold the losers, you keep losers with 78%, if you keep the loser's forever and sold only the winners, of course you have only winners.
Your strategy may be good but you may have to sale the losers when down like 8 or 10%, and my question is: any of the winners sold, went down 10% during the time you own them?

Happy trading with a lot of fun

Antonio

Many of my winners were down lower than 10% during the time I owned them. Why do I have to sell a stock when it goes down 10%?

[ASER]

You don't have to sale when the stock go down 10%, I sold any loser if go lower than 10%, lessons I learned on 2001 when the market went down, sometimes take years to get back the 10%, how many years you have to wait for your stocks under 50% get back to cost price?. Just my opinion.

[mrmarket]

You don't have to sale when the stock go down 10%, I sold any loser if go lower than 10%, lessons I learned on 2001 when the market went down, sometimes take years to get back the 10%, how many years you have to wait for your stocks under 50% get back to cost price?. Just my opinion.


It's been backtested on this forum. My total returns would have been lower if I had sold all of the stocks I owned when they went down 10%. Instead of focusing on the few losers I have, look how many winners I have booked. I am HUGE!

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
I know Pete Seeger is a left wing pinko commie , but Springsteen sure makes his songs sound good. Were you in Asbury Park this morning?

billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market,
I know Pete Seeger is a left wing pinko commie , but Springsteen sure makes his songs sound good. Were you in Asbury Park this morning?

billyjoe


No..I'm going tomorrow at 5:30..want to meet me for a beer?

Ernie

[billyjoe]

Mr.Market,
I'd like to , but I can't get out of the house now , maybe next year.
I've never been to New Jersey. Am I missing anything?

billyjoe

[Websman]

Speaking of Springsteen, I made sure to buy myself a Bruce Springsteen "signature series" t-shirt when I was at the Hard Rock Cafe in Paris. Springsteen has more talent than anyone of the self proclaimed thugs that are putting out the trash that they call music these days.

[gerihearne]

Mr.Market,
I'd like to , but I can't get out of the house now , maybe next year.
I've never been to New Jersey. Am I missing anything?

billyjoe

BillyJoe, how are you? Glad to see you back ... and your friends have been takin' good care of potw for ya.

[Rob]

There never was, and there never will be, another wrestler like the great Haystack Calhoun.

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4109/haystack8gr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

There never was, and there never will be, another wrestler like the great Haystack Calhoun.


http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/4109/haystack8gr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)


Well Rob...I'll admit, Hay was very good...But the King was Classy Freddie Blassie. Freddie even won as a write-in candidate at my high school for Student Body President in 1970. But those Pencil-Neck Geek School Administrators disqualified him.

Freddie was the best IMO.

http://www.fredsociety.com/images/blassie.jpg
http://www.fredsociety.com/blassie.html


...Doug(IIC)

[billyjoe]

Rob,
I saw Haystack Calhoun matched with I think Flying Fred Curry in a tag team match against I think the Love Brothers in the 1960's. The Love Brothers dressed like hippies but were dirty rotten cheaters. Remember Haystack wore a horseshoe around his neck. The Love Brother was begging for mercy as Haystack began his roundhouse windup and knocked him out of the ring. Curry leveled the other brother with a flying mare. I almost got hit by a chair. It was great. The only disappointment was that the wrestling midgets and wrestling women never showed up. At that time they said Haystacks weighed 714 pounds.
---------billyjoe

[IIC]

I never did get to see a Pro match in person...But I did go to the roller derby...Doug(IIC)

[Rob]

BillyJoe, sounds awesome. I never did see a live wrestling match, except for the ones they had at school. But I used to watch the wrestlers on TV in the 60s. I think it was called "National, All Star Wrestling," or something like that. Some of the more illustrious characters I remember, besides Haystack, were: Skull Murphy, The Spoiler, The Iron Claw, Kenji Shabuya (sp?), and there was the tag-team of Ray Stevens and Pat Patterson. When I got to be 6 or 7 years old and figured out it was all fake, I kind of started losing interest in it.

I had always heard that Haystack Calhoun was 6'-4" tall and weighed 600 lbs. But I guess it probably fluctuated up and down 100 lbs. or so from there. I also remember hearing he used to go into restaurants and order one of everything on the menu. You know how those stories are. Well when you're just a little kid, you tend to believe 'em.

Doug, I guess "Classy" Freddie Blassie would have been disqualified as a student body president in 1970 considering he'd have been 52 years old at the time. (???)

[IIC]

BillyJoe, sounds awesome. I never did see a live wrestling match, except for the ones they had at school. But I used to watch the wrestlers on TV in the 60s. I think it was called "National, All Star Wrestling," or something like that. Some of the more illustrious characters I remember, besides Haystack, were: Skull Murphy, The Spoiler, The Iron Claw, Kenji Shabuya (sp?), and there was the tag-team of Ray Stevens and Pat Patterson. When I got to be 6 or 7 years old and figured out it was all fake, I kind of started losing interest in it.

I had always heard that Haystack Calhoun was 6'-4" tall and weighed 600 lbs. But I guess it probably fluctuated up and down 100 lbs. or so from there. I also remember hearing he used to go into restaurants and order one of everything on the menu. You know how those stories are. Well when you're just a little kid, you tend to believe 'em.

Doug, I guess "Classy" Freddie Blassie would have been disqualified as a student body president in 1970 considering he'd have been 52 years old at the time. (???)

Don't forget BoBo Brazil...And my fave when I was real little was the Destroyer...He wore a full head mask...I remember when I was in 2nd grade and my sister was in Kindergarten...We used to watch wrestling on TV...We really liked the midgets...I used to tell her I was gonna be a wrestler when I grew up...Then she would cry...NO!!! NO!!! IIC...You'll get hurt!!!...Wait a minute!!!...I wasn't IIC until 1968...She called me Douggie back then...Douggie(IIC)

[Lyehopper]

Doug, I guess "Classy" Freddie Blassie would have been disqualified as a student body president in 1970 considering he'd have been 52 years old at the time. (???)
Yep that's why the "pencil-neck geeks" disqualified him.... Age discrimination!.... Doug should have have sued in his behalf.

[billyjoe]

Doug,
From the various posts I realized that most wrestlers were regional . For instance I never heard of Fred Blassie before he was mentioned in the song "Man on the Moon" by REM. Also never heard of Iron Claw , The Spoiler , Skull Murphy.
The big names around here that we could see on TV almost every week were Bobo Brazil , Fred Curry , Bull Curry , The Shiek , Haystack Calhoun, Gorilla Monsoon . Bobo Brazil was always on. I'm surprised he was big on the West coast. Who were some of the others ? How about East coast, Mr.Market ? What about the South ?
--------------billyjoe

[Websman]

Doug,
From the various posts I realized that most wrestlers were regional . For instance I never heard of Fred Blassie before he was mentioned in the song "Man on the Moon" by REM. Also never heard of Iron Claw , The Spoiler , Skull Murphy.
The big names around here that we could see on TV almost every week were Bobo Brazil , Fred Curry , Bull Curry , The Shiek , Haystack Calhoun, Gorilla Monsoon . Bobo Brazil was always on. I'm surprised he was big on the West coast. Who were some of the others ? How about East coast, Mr.Market ? What about the South ?
--------------billyjoe

The south had Bullet Bob Armstrong, Austin Idol, the New Zealand Sheep Herders, Mongolian Stomper, Joe Le'duc, the Anderson Brothers, Wildcat Wendall Cooley, and a bunch more that I can't remember.

[billyjoe]

Webs,
Never heard of any of them , but I'm sure they were awesome.
-------------billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
From the various posts I realized that most wrestlers were regional . For instance I never heard of Fred Blassie before he was mentioned in the song "Man on the Moon" by REM. Also never heard of Iron Claw , The Spoiler , Skull Murphy.
The big names around here that we could see on TV almost every week were Bobo Brazil , Fred Curry , Bull Curry , The Shiek , Haystack Calhoun, Gorilla Monsoon . Bobo Brazil was always on. I'm surprised he was big on the West coast. Who were some of the others ? How about East coast, Mr.Market ? What about the South ?
--------------billyjoe

Well...tough to remember...But I remember Haystack, Skull Murphy, The Destroyer, Gorilla Monsoon, Bobo.

Funny...I used to watch Roller Derby too...LA T-Birds...When they were on TV they were always at home...But when I went to college and ran track we obviously stayed at hotels all over...One time I flipped on the TV in Kansas City...The T-Birds were against the KC Bombers...Same people...But they were playing in KC.

There was a girl from Culver City, CA (Where I went to school K-12 except for 4th grade when I lived in Spring Branch(Houston, TX)...Her name was Darlene Langlois(You can google her)...Believe she was 3 years behind me...Her sister, Rayleen was in my class...Darlene played for the T-Birds...She was vicious....Hopefully she made some big bux and screwed the hedgies...But I doubt that I'll ever try to find out...Go T-Birds http://www.latbirds.com/

[IIC]

BTW....My Dad loved Gorgeous George and His Georgie Pins...Maybe because my Dad's name is George?

Here's a site...I recognize some of the names... But not most ...I remember Andre The Giant and Killer Kowalski...But where is Mr. Moto???

http://www.wrestlingmuseum.com/homeie.html

From this one...

http://www.pwhf.org/halloffamers/inductees.asp

I remember Johnny Valentine, Freddie Blassie, Ernie's Fave...Ric Flair, Dick Beyer(THE DESTROYER...My 1st FAVE when I was a kid)...Hulk Hogan of course....Just noticed a guy named Little Beaver...Probably none here have ever read "IIC...The Early Years"...But one of my nicknames when I was a Frosh in college was Little Beaver...Don't ask why Webs...IIC

[ParkTwain]

FYI
Close on 31 Aug 2006 was 28.25


Also in the news:

AACE to be acquired at 30.00/sh. Shareholders to vote 29 Sept 2006.

[casinoboy3]

What happened to your homepage?

[IIC]

What happened to your homepage?


Where you been Casino???

I got his page up but I had to click refresh 4 times before anything appeared.

Ernie...I recommend that you get a real host for your homepage...Oftentimes I have not been able to access your homepage either...A simple page is really cheap nowadays...Just a thought...Doug(IIC)

[mrmarket]

I updated my personal homepage today...it's been a busy summer but since I anticipate a lot of changes in my portfolio I will try to do a better job of keeping it up to date:

http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian

[mrmarket]

Where you been Casino???

I got his page up but I had to click refresh 4 times before anything appeared.

Ernie...I recommend that you get a real host for your homepage...Oftentimes I have not been able to access your homepage either...A simple page is really cheap nowadays...Just a thought...Doug(IIC)

Any more specific suggestions?

[IIC]

Any more specific suggestions?

I don't know...I clicked on your link just now and it took almost 30 seconds to come up...and I have a fast connection...IIC

[billyjoe]

Doug,
It came up in less than 5 seconds for me. Maybe your computer is sick.

---------billyjoe

Just tried it again , 2-3 seconds !

[New-born baby]

I don't know...I clicked on your link just now and it took almost 30 seconds to come up...and I have a fast connection...IIC

Yes, it takes a good amount of time to come up for me, and I run a hot shot computer with a dual core radiator just to keep it cool. SSSS-LLLL-OOOOOOO-WWWWWWW.

[IIC]

Doug,
It came up in less than 5 seconds for me. Maybe your computer is sick.

---------billyjoe

Just tried it again , 2-3 seconds !


Well, that was at work...I just did it at home and it took over 45 seconds...Nobody else's site takes that long

[IIC]

Yes, it takes a good amount of time to come up for me, and I run a hot shot computer with a dual core radiator just to keep it cool. SSSS-LLLL-OOOOOOO-WWWWWWW.


Are you using Water Cooled???...I have a friend who does that with the colored bubbles

[Karel]

Not the speed of the computer, but the speed of the Internet connection might be the more important factor. $$$Mr.Market$$$'s homepage is HUGE, not surprisingly, and weighs in at over 360 KB. Over a modem line, it may take a minute or more to load. I have cable Internet :)

Regards,

Karel

[billyjoe]

Cable here also. Tried it today.....3 seconds. Mr.Market rocks!

-----------billyjoe

[casinoboy3]

I think it takes each of us a different amount of time to load due to the instability of AOL's web server. There's nothing on MM's page that should take more than a few seconds to load (maybe 10-15 seconds for dial-up). I don't know if its designed to handle that much traffic, or what the case is. I've had a lot of luck with Yahoo's Geocities, but again, I don't know how much traffic its designed for.

[billyjoe]

What's the explanation for Mr.Market's small number of winners this year? How does the market performance for '06 compare to those of '03 , '04 , and '05 ? Does anyone have that data ? Thanks

----------billyjoe

[The Photon]

how is the season going?

[IIC]

OK...I upgraded my DSL to Elite...Takes 3-5 days...so I'll see how it goes on the speed...I only had Express...then they have Pro and then Elite...I didn't know that...my wife never shows me the ads in the phone bill...But a buddy told me that he upgraded from Express to Pro and it was much faster.

So I get out the phone bill...log on and find out I can get Elite for a year at the same price I pay for Express (ATT/Yahoo)...IIC

[Karel]

Doug, more speed is certainly nice, but your Express should have been enough, it was already 15x faster than dial-up. And another poster said that 15 seconds max would be the limit for dial-up, with $$$Mr.Market$$$'s page. Now that is wrong: 360 KB / 15 seconds = 24 KB / second. No way to reach such speeds with dial-up. In practice dial-up speed tops out at 6KB/s (60,000 bps), and that is when you are lucky. So the AOL servers probably are part of the trouble. (When everybody comes home, fires up their computer and starts surfing to, among others, AOL member home pages, etc.)

I have a 3MB/1MB connection, downgraded from 8MB/1MB. 8MB/s download was really nice, but I didn't download enough DVD's to justify the expense ;)

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

Here is a connection speed test, for bragging points:

http://reviews.cnet.com/7004-7254_7-0.html?tag=nl.e776

I scored 2176 Kbps, but remember: my bits have to cross the big pond.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

Here is a connection speed test, for bragging points:

http://reviews.cnet.com/7004-7254_7-0.html?tag=nl.e776

I scored 2176 Kbps, but remember: my bits have to cross the big pond.

Regards,

Karel


Here's mine... 6219.5 kbps :eek:

[billyjoe]

Here's mine... 6219.5 kbps :eek:


Webs , you're smokin'. No wonder you can post so fast. I'm 4662.9kbps

----------billyjoe

[Websman]

Webs , you're smokin'. No wonder you can post so fast. I'm 4662.9kbps

----------billyjoe



Roadrunner cable rocks!

[IIC]

OK...I upgraded my DSL to Elite...Takes 3-5 days...so I'll see how it goes on the speed...I only had Express...then they have Pro and then Elite...I didn't know that...my wife never shows me the ads in the phone bill...But a buddy told me that he upgraded from Express to Pro and it was much faster.

So I get out the phone bill...log on and find out I can get Elite for a year at the same price I pay for Express (ATT/Yahoo)...IIC

OK...took affect today...my avg before was 1150-1250...Got up to 4200 so far this evening...Most sites are much, much faster...But sorry...Ernie's site still took 45 seconds...It comes up immediately but then stalls???

[IIC]

OK...took affect today...my avg before was 1150-1250...Got up to 4200 so far this evening...Most sites are much, much faster...But sorry...Ernie's site still took 45 seconds...It comes up immediately but then stalls???


But I will say...This Forum is really fast now...Now I'll be able to harrass more of you

[mrmarket]

how is the season going?

We're 1-4 but some of the kids have new helmets thanks to you Photon!

[Lyehopper]

Dear Mr Market,

I have an observation and suggestion..... In your introduction to the website you mention buying stocks of companies with solid financial "underpinnings". Now I've been a member here for a few years and I never really thought too much about that statement before.... but now I have.

In Bedford County VA we have alot of folks dwelling in mobile homes aka "trailers".... A trailer doesn't really have a foundation under it, just some cement blocks and metal straps securing it to the ground. Then after setting the trailer on blocks you'll attempt to disguise the fact that your house is simply sitting on some concrete blocks with metal straps.... So you build a facade around the bottom of the trailer to hide what's really underneath. That facade is commonly called "underpinning" a trailer....

Now I know that the true definition of underpinning is indeed "foundation".... but down here it means to skirt a trailer!.... Based on THAT fact alone, I think you should change the wording in your intro FROM "solid underpinnings" TO "solid foundation"....
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/16392/mobile_home_living_how_to_make_your.html

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/4041/trailervw3.png (http://imageshack.us)


Your #1 redneck, trailertrash fan from the BlueRidge mountains of VA,
~Lyehopper

[mrmarket]

I thought you were going to work in a picture of a cow or a calf somehow...but I will take your comments under advisement.

[Lyehopper]

I thought you were going to work in a picture of a cow or a calf somehow...but I will take your comments under advisement.
I appreciate your graciousness oh HUGE one!.... Thanks to your informative stock market discussion forum, I have done very well in the market so far this year.... as the picture below so aptly attests.

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/8320/trailer1kb0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[ItoldUso...]

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=1453


this was her thread and you were suspicious (too good to be true), they got her and here's the story, just yesterday on the news:


http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/story?section=troubleshooter&id=5481972

http://www.wral.com/apps/search/search/?qs=patricia+jacoby&d_since=&d_sort=desc&d_filter=story%2Cvideo%2Cpage%2Csection_front%2Cbl og%2Cblogpost

http://www.raleigh.bbb.org/ca_June2007.html

I thought I'd share since there's several victims involved (I'm one of them); might be good to share and come up with justice.

[billyjoe]

But I will say...This Forum is really fast now...Now I'll be able to harrass more of you


Doug,
You spelled "harass" wrong and it took me over a year to figure it out.


---------------billyjoe

[IIC]

Doug,
You spelled "harass" wrong and it took me over a year to figure it out.


---------------billyjoe

Billy...I sorta use my own colloquial type language(Like the ... I use the dots... so I don't have to think about what is correct)...Rob picked up on it long ago...That way nobody can accuse me of poor grammar...It is just IICESE.

[riverbabe]

"IICese." :p

[Peter Hansen]

Doug,
You spelled "harass" wrong and it took me over a year to figure it out.


---------------billyjoe

Knowing DOUG .....I think "Her Ass" was really on his mind LOL !

[billyjoe]

Pete,
You're probably right but Doug is so sharp it took you another year to get into his brain.

----------billy