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I have 31 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1

    Default The Draft Day Top 5

    Here are my 5 favorite stocks from the most recent data dump....which one do you like? And Why?


    AMRB BLD DHI FNF UBCP


    I will buy one of these next week!
    Last edited by mrmarket; 05-31-2021 at 12:52 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    784

    Default

    LHere are my thoughts:

    AMRB
    The basic financials for the company look good with a Price/Sales of 4.03, P/E 13.99, and Debt/Equity of .22. Three year annualized growth was good with revenue at 9.95%, net income at 30.18% and Diluted EPS at 33.89%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data on AMRB. There’s a caveat here, though. AMRB is apparently in talks for a merger with Marin Bancorp, BMRC. BMRC’ s financials were similar to AMRB, although their growth rates were significantly lower. Interestingly, news of the merger sent AMRB shares considerably higher, but BMRC shares took a bit of a nosedive. Chartwise, AMRB is currently trading in a range because of the merger. It is therefore unlikely that this stock will break out of that range unless the merger falls through. The chart for BMRC looks bad with the stock basing at a low with little support at current levels. The bottom line is that if you buy AMRB, you are essentially buying BMRC, and BMRC is a far from compelling story. For that reason, I would steer clear of this stock.
    Grade: D

    BLD
    The basic financials of BLD look OK with a slightly high P/E of 29.94. Three year annualized growth was modest with revenue at 12.55%, net income at 16.03% and diluted EPS at 19.76%. These are good, but not great growth numbers. I was unable to pull up detailed income data for BLD. BLD has done a pretty good job of meeting or beating analyst expectations, beating estimates for 13 straight quarters. They are due to report earnings on May 6, which presents an opportunity for a significant move in the near term. The chart looks strong and the stock has been in a solid uptrend since March of 2020. The stock does seem to oscillate a lot with each leg upward typically preceded by leg down in a sinusoidal pattern. It is currently basing slightly off its last high and looks poised to pull back before making its next leg up.
    Grade: B

    DHI
    The basic financials of DHI look good with a Price/Sales of 1.50, a P/E of 11.4, and a Debt/Equity of .35. Three year annualized growth was good with revenue at 12.96%, net income at 31.73% and diluted EPS at 32.75%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data for DHI, and I am beginning to think that there is a problem at Morningstar with respect to this. DHI’s performance in terms of meeting or beating analyst expectations was good with DHI beating for 9 straight quarters and for 15 of the last 18 quarters. They just recently reported earnings on April 22. Chartwise, DHI traded in a range from about August of last year to January. It broke out of the range in February and has been trending higher ever since. Currently, it is trading near its high and forming a little base there. Last Friday’s bar showed a little weakness, but overall the chart looks strong.
    Grade: A-

    FNF
    The basic financials for FNF are very solid with Price/Sales of 1.21, a P/E of 8.98 and a Debt/Equity of .37. Three year annualized growth was OK with revenue at 12.04%, net income at 22.78% and diluted EPS at 27.99%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data for FNF so there is definitely an issue with Morningstar’s servers. FNF’s performance in terms of meeting or beating analyst expectations was good with FNF beating for eight straight quarters and for 15 of the last 17 quarters. In two of the last three quarters they had a big beat. FNF reports earnings in May, which presents a near term opportunity for a significant move in share price. Chartwise, after trading in a range from June of last year to November, FNF broke out in December and had been in a slow uptrend since. Since February there has been some oscillation in share price with three significant corrections. Since late March FNF has climbed steadily with no correction. It is currently trading near its recent (but not all-time) high. It looks poised to challenge its all time high that was made in February of last year, and earnings may provide the fuel needed.
    Grade: A

    UBCP
    The volume is too low on UBCP for me to seriously consider it. Last Friday only 6.75K shares traded. On its busiest day in the last year only 34K shares traded.
    Grade: F

    My pick of these five would be FNF.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 05-02-2021 at 09:26 AM.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Location
    buffalo ny
    Posts
    45

    Default

    I understand the MM concept of picking top performing great fundamental companies with a powerful uptrend and to ride that uptrend up to achieve a quicker than overall market timed 15% win. In this top 5 we have another homebuilder and a building materials company along with a mortgage finance company. No surprise that these keep coming up in the screens as the sector is red hot with backlog of orders. I'm a little apprehensive about going all in here for anything more than short term. The price of energy and of building products in particular worries me. The price of a square foot of lumber has risen from $11 to $35 within one year. A report on CNBC estimates that this adds $36000 to the cost of the average new home build. Will this trend price out some consumers? Will this affect margin ? If so , how soon? Any thoughts out there?

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,920

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post
    LHere are my thoughts:

    AMRB
    The basic financials for the company look good with a Price/Sales of 4.03, P/E 13.99, and Debt/Equity of .22. Three year annualized growth was good with revenue at 9.95%, net income at 30.18% and Diluted EPS at 33.89%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data on AMRB. There’s a caveat here, though. AMRB is apparently in talks for a merger with Marin Bancorp, BMRC. BMRC’ s financials were similar to AMRB, although their growth rates were significantly lower. Interestingly, news of the merger sent AMRB shares considerably higher, but BMRC shares took a bit of a nosedive. Chartwise, AMRB is currently trading in a range because of the merger. It is therefore unlikely that this stock will break out of that range unless the merger falls through. The chart for BMRC looks bad with the stock basing at a low with little support at current levels. The bottom line is that if you buy AMRB, you are essentially buying BMRC, and BMRC is a far from compelling story. For that reason, I would steer clear of this stock.
    Grade: D

    BLD
    The basic financials of BLD look OK with a slightly high P/E of 29.94. Three year annualized growth was modest with revenue at 12.55%, net income at 16.03% and diluted EPS at 19.76%. These are good, but not great growth numbers. I was unable to pull up detailed income data for BLD. BLD has done a pretty good job of meeting or beating analyst expectations, beating estimates for 13 straight quarters. They are due to report earnings on May 6, which presents an opportunity for a significant move in the near term. The chart looks strong and the stock has been in a solid uptrend since March of 2020. The stock does seem to oscillate a lot with each leg upward typically preceded by leg down in a sinusoidal pattern. It is currently basing slightly off its last high and looks poised to pull back before making its next leg up.
    Grade: B

    DHI
    The basic financials of DHI look good with a Price/Sales of 1.50, a P/E of 11.4, and a Debt/Equity of .35. Three year annualized growth was good with revenue at 12.96%, net income at 31.73% and diluted EPS at 32.75%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data for DHI, and I am beginning to think that there is a problem at Morningstar with respect to this. DHI’s performance in terms of meeting or beating analyst expectations was good with DHI beating for 9 straight quarters and for 15 of the last 18 quarters. They just recently reported earnings on April 22. Chartwise, DHI traded in a range from about August of last year to January. It broke out of the range in February and has been trending higher ever since. Currently, it is trading near its high and forming a little base there. Last Friday’s bar showed a little weakness, but overall the chart looks strong.
    Grade: A-

    FNF
    The basic financials for FNF are very solid with Price/Sales of 1.21, a P/E of 8.98 and a Debt/Equity of .37. Three year annualized growth was OK with revenue at 12.04%, net income at 22.78% and diluted EPS at 27.99%. I couldn’t pull up detailed income data for FNF so there is definitely an issue with Morningstar’s servers. FNF’s performance in terms of meeting or beating analyst expectations was good with FNF beating for eight straight quarters and for 15 of the last 17 quarters. In two of the last three quarters they had a big beat. FNF reports earnings in May, which presents a near term opportunity for a significant move in share price. Chartwise, after trading in a range from June of last year to November, FNF broke out in December and had been in a slow uptrend since. Since February there has been some oscillation in share price with three significant corrections. Since late March FNF has climbed steadily with no correction. It is currently trading near its recent (but not all-time) high. It looks poised to challenge its all time high that was made in February of last year, and earnings may provide the fuel needed.
    Grade: A

    UBCP
    The volume is too low on UBCP for me to seriously consider it. Last Friday only 6.75K shares traded. On its busiest day in the last year only 34K shares traded.
    Grade: F

    My pick of these five would be FNF.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FNF/financials?p=FNF
    Yahoo has the financials on Fidelity, if you are having issues getting them from Morningstar. I agree FNF looks good, as well as UBCP. I like the banks, both large and small, and think these two have a great chance at giving us a 15% gain in the next few weeks. Low volume does not scare me, and I'd gladly get into UBCP, as its book value is much higher than its market cap! Fidelity is also amazing, growing from about $7.5B in revenues in 2017 and 2018 to about $11B last year. Everyone and their mother uses Fidelity, as do I. This one is a great choice- but I'd have to say UBCP is also extremely tempting to me. I would MUCH rather a bank this time than another homebuilder, and for the same reasons you don't like AMRB, I'm putting it last of my choices here as well. Anyway, my top 2 of 5 are:
    1) FNF
    2) UBCP
    but that's just FNF by a nose there.
    Let's bank on the BANK this time! More Money Means More Meats and More Cheese!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,920

    Default

    Ok, I'm liking these 2 (FNF and UBCP) so much that I'm buying them both right now, at 46.1 and 15.2! If MM picks one all the better... I'll likely buy more of it. I just know if I wait until tomorrow, I'll have to pay more for either of these.

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