Quantcast
I have 28 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
Page 1 of 9 1234 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 86
  1. #1

    Default FRGB ==> The Kickoff Classic Winner

    Say you decide to spend a Saturday night at a casino. So, on a whim, your friend Titan Omega gets on a Friday night plane and joins you in Atlantic City. You sit at the most convenient blackjack table in the Atlantic City Hilton next to mock Janet, who is playing first base, and a Titan wannabe (call him Titan Nu).

    The dealer cuts the deck and deals Titan Omega a 14. The dealer up card shows a semi-strong 8. Titan Omega knows that there is an inherent risk of breaking his hand if he takes a card, however he refuses to be foiled by a dealer 8. With the next hand he draws a 2, bringing his total to 16. He bravely draws another hand, and ogles the incoming 5 of diamonds with delight. With his total securely 21 and his stack of black chips towering in front of him, Titan Omega draws a sip of his cold and delicious Coors Light and begins to serenade the casino with his observation:

    “You sees! You SEEES!! Can’t Lose. Can’t LOSE! Can’t LOOOOSE!!! Drinking Machine!”

    The endomorph at the other table has heard enough of Titan Omega’s incantation, and decides to make his own luck. He begins to say, “CAN’T lose…CAN’T lose…CAN’T lose” but alas, his dealer gives him a 10 and he breaks and is oh so faceful.

    Not everyone can have “drinking machine” unless you are a Southern California regional bank in the middle of a demographic firestorm of economic growth. That’s right, the fuel for this commercial “drinking machine” are the loans offered to the small business that thrive in this environment.

    Today I bought First Regional Bancorp (FRGB) at 88.40. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 101.85. Here’s why I like FRGB:

    FRGB’s stock is up over 190% in the last 12 months, yet its PE is only 18.7.



    The chart shows a smooth upward progression with a 12 month r^2 rating of 0.83 and a 3 month r^2 rating of 0.91.

    Not just another warrior in the retail banking fray, First Regional Bancorp, through subsidiary First Regional Bank, caters to Southern California businesses as a wholesale banking operation. Through about 10 locations, the bank mainly offers real estate loans (accounting for nearly 75% of its portfolio), as well as commercial and construction loans. It specializes in equipment financing and mid-sized residential and commercial projects. The bank admits it has fewer customer deposit accounts than its competitors, but its accounts typically have higher balances. First Regional Bancorp also offers merchant credit card clearing and trust services, and administrative services for self-directed retirement plans. FRGB is a quality driven bank serving the needs of smaller to medium size business in our marketplace. They cultivate close relationships with CPA firms, law firms, business management firms, property management firms, real estate developers and builders, manufacturing and wholesale firms, as well as high net worth individuals who all appreciate a personal touch


    So you have to ask once again. Why does $$$MR. MARKET$$$ always buy small banks stocks? Good question. #1. They are cheap. #2. Their stock prices go up. #3. They make money.

    FRGB, in particular, resonates with these 3 characteristics.


    First Regional Bank’s targeted loan, deposit, and trust services address the needs of a full spectrum of businesses and individuals, including:
    • Real estate (with bridge, mini-perm and construction financing)
    • Legal, accounting and medical professionals
    • Property management
    • Wholesaling and manufacturing
    • High net-worth individuals

    First Regional Bank Provides...
    • Quality service not found in other banks, especially large chain banks, featuring fast responses and follow through.
    • Experienced and seasoned staff capable of handling complex real estate loans and commercial banking needs.


    FRGB demonstrated solid growth in their targeted market segments of real estate and commercial lending. Throughout the First Regional network, their business bankers combine local market expertise with timely decision-making capability. Each of their offices offers clients a discreet, professional environment and oneon- one service. They offer businesses and individuals a sophisticated package of financial services, including customized loans, lines of credit and depository products; complete corporate, personal trust and investment services; and advanced merchant credit card processing and payment programs, all backed by full-service telephone and online banking.

    More banks are now using mergers to fill gaps in their product lineups or their geographic coverage, rather than simply seeking economies of scale. FRGB would be a prime target. Retail banking is back in favor, with banks expanding their retail franchises and building branches. To succeed, banks will need to learn from leading retailers how to provide highquality service and enhance the customer experience. FRGB, obviously, already has all this. Banks can learn from the example of leading retailers – such as Takashimaya, LVMH, Ikea and Starbucks – who place the utmost importance on the customer experience in their stores. As Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz told Fortune, “We aren’t in the coffee business, serving people. We are in the people business, serving coffee.” Mmmmmm coffeeeeees. Excuse me while I go poo.

    With that mindset, Starbucks has been able to create a unique in-store experience and a strong brand around a commodity product. The bank branch has the potential to be that kind of vital customer touch-point. Once regarded as on the verge of extinction, the branch has retained considerable appeal for customers. Face it. I know we like our convenience, but wouldn’t we rather go to a bank branch than go through touch tone menus to finally deal with someone at a call center in some underpopulated unemployment hotbed? . To that end, a customer is not greeted by voice mail when calling this institution, but at the same time may access his accounts by the latest computer technology.


    All of this soft talk sounds terrific, but it has translated into results. 2004 was the most successful year in the bank’s 25-year history. At December 31, 2004, total assets were $1.3 billion, compared with $773 million at the close of 2003. Total deposits amounted to $1.0 billion, up from $664 million twelve months earlier, and net loans exceeded $1.1 billion, compared with
    $705 million last year. Net income for the year ended December 31, 2004 totaled $13.7 million, up sharply from the $5.7 million earned in 2003. It is notable that the bank’s total assets have grown by over 450% over the past five years.

    In the last 3 yrs, FRGB has doubled their revenue and tripled their earnings. Their moving average Return on Assets is increasing, indicating lower loss rates. True dat…the one year % Reserve for Loan Losses average has decreased to only 1.02% vs. their 5 yr average of 1.43%. This indicates that even though their lending portfolio is growing, their credit quality is strengthening.

    Sporting a Return on Equity of 21% (vs. industry average of 16%), FRGB looks like it is ready to continue its earnings successes. Gross loans are up 49% from last summer and they have grown each and every year for the last 4 years. FRGB’s TTM Profit Margin % and Revenue Growth leaves its benchmark banking competition in the dust.

    Most recently, FRGB reported that net income for the second quarter of 2005 climbed 229 percent from the comparable period one year ago, reaching the single-highest quarterly level in the institution’s history. For the three months ended June 30, 2005, net income totaled $6.4 million versus $1.9 million registered in last year’s second quarter. This translates to $1.49 per diluted share, an increase of nearly three-fold from $0.48 per diluted share in the second quarter of 2004. Net income for the first half of 2005 advanced more than 223 percent to $11.6 million, equal to $2.72 per diluted share, eclipsing the $3.6 million, or $0.95 per diluted share, in the corresponding six-months last year.

    Of course we are all a lot more interested in what’s going to happen looking ahead. Mr. ANAL-yst seems confident that FRGB will earn $1.75 in the next quarter and $6.40 for the year. This particular ANAL-yst, believe it or not, is not too far off base. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects that revenues for 2005 will come in at a record $111 million which will generate EPS of $6.60. These earnings, at the existing PE multiple of 18.7, would get the stock price to $123.42. Wooo – hooo!

    No one is happier than Jumping Jack Sweeney, the founder and largest shareholder (26%) of FRGB. Here’s what he had to say:
    “First Regional’s outstanding operating performance continued in the second period and first half of 2005. We are deeply gratified to have registered strong gains and all-time highs in net income, total assets, total deposits and net loans.”

    “First Regional’s total assets climbed 48 percent to $1.45 billion from $980 million at June 30, 2004; total deposits grew to more than $1.2 billion at the close of the most recent period, rising 44 percent from $840 million one year earlier; and net loans reached $1.3 billion at June 30, 2005, an increase of 49 percent from the prior year.

    “Among the factors positively impacting our results is First Regional’s continued growth, particularly in California’s strong real estate sector that represents an important pillar of our business base. In addition, the Federal Reserve’s recent increases in interest rates, which have improved our net-interest margins, combined with the operational efficiencies and economies of scale that result from an expanded asset base, have also had a favorable effect on our performance.”

    “Our addition to the Russell 2000 index is indicative of our sustained strong operating results and expanded market capitalization. It is both a validation of our business model and recognition of the considerable shareholder value which First Regional has created in recent years,” he commented.
    "The availability of attractive lending opportunities enabled our bankers to expand net loans by 75% over the past year while maintaining our high standards for credit quality."

    "As our results indicate, our operations continue to reflect robust activity and growing market penetration."

    "First Regional again turned in an exceptional performance, as our company strives to further increase its presence in carefully targeted markets throughout southern California. We are advancing on a path of solid profitability guided by prudent and conservative operating strategies."

    "It is notable," Mr. Sweeney added, "that the bank's total assets have grown by over 450% over the past five years. Over this period we have built a larger, stronger, and more diversified company. Our ultimate objective has been to increase value for our shareholders, while increasing our profits on a sustained basis. We are gratified that the stock market has recognized our success in this area, as First Regional's stock price rose over 180% in 2004."

    "In our view, First Regional is well positioned for the future. We will continue making every effort to implement our conservative growth strategies, maintain high asset quality, and increase profitability as we sustain and enhance shareholder value on a long-term basis."

    Come on in to their newest branch and get a handshake and a new toaster.

    So what do you think of this pick? What do you think of $$$MR. MARKET$$$? Please let me know. All posts and emails are greatly appreciated.

    If you like this write up, send it to a friend or two or six.

    I am HUGE!!

    $$$$MR. MARKET$$$

    http://www.mrmarketishuge.com
    Last edited by mrmarket; 09-12-2005 at 12:49 PM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,862

    Thumbs up FRGB rocks!

    Great writeup, $$MM! I'm in with you at 87.3.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    187

    Default

    Too low volume is not good. But it's been growing higher all that time.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Monroe, WI
    Posts
    6,091

    Default Nine Thousand

    Quote Originally Posted by mooddude
    Too low volume is not good. But it's been growing higher all that time.
    It traded just 9,000 shares all day yesterday. But I guess it goes to prove that MM buys less than 9,000 shares on his picks.

    It all the regular posters on this board bought this stock, it would really move.

  5. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by New-born baby
    It traded just 9,000 shares all day yesterday. But I guess it goes to prove that MM buys less than 9,000 shares on his picks.

    It all the regular posters on this board bought this stock, it would really move.
    I generally invest less than $800,000 per stock pick.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Monroe, WI
    Posts
    6,091

    Default Exceptions to the rule

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmarket
    I generally invest less than $800,000 per stock pick.
    " . . . GENERALLY . . . ."

  7. #7
    casinoboy3 Guest

    Default

    Thanks for the pick, I am in with you at 85.80.... hoping for another 15%!

  8. #8
    Dave Guest

    Default

    One thing I have learned is to never bet against Mr. Market! That being said, I think I would prefer not to place a bet on this one. Just looking at the charts of the 15 or so housing/banking related stocks I have here tells me to put my money somewhere else, perhaps into beer. FRGB has very nice fundamentals, though...vewy temping...

    -Dave

  9. #9
    mmm Guest

    Thumbs down Frgb

    Good luck BIG ONE.. but I think there are other better stocks to enter at this time.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Monroe, WI
    Posts
    6,091

    Default FRGB: take two

    Yeah, I don't like the same volume on this one. But that has never stopped MM from profitting on a stock. Remember CHKE (Cherokee)? Paid the nice divy, too. MM cashed out with more than 15% on that one.

    FRGB is RIGHT NOW sitting on a channel long signal. Perfect entry time on Tuesday. It has some resistance at $87, $90 and $92, but any stock not at an all-time high will have overhead resistance. The real issue is this: is FRGB making more money each quarter? If the answer is "yes," low volume or not, MM cashes in.

    Here's two charts: read 'em and be surprised.


    Last edited by Karel; 09-29-2006 at 05:11 PM.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. TOL ==> The Summer Solstice Winner
    By mrmarket in forum Discussion
    Replies: 171
    Last Post: 02-11-2021, 12:41 AM
  2. IPAR sold ==> my 53rd consecutive winner!
    By mrmarket in forum Discussion
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 06-20-2013, 10:58 AM
  3. KBH ==> The Hot and Humid Winner
    By mrmarket in forum Discussion
    Replies: 178
    Last Post: 05-18-2008, 05:07 PM
  4. The Kickoff Classic Data Dump
    By mrmarket in forum Discussion
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 08-26-2005, 02:36 PM
  5. KSWS ==> Merry Christmas Winner!
    By mrmarket in forum Discussion
    Replies: 18
    Last Post: 01-07-2004, 02:12 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  




Do you like this site?

Take a look at the homepage
of $$$ MR. MARKET $$$