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I have 28 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default Stocks on my screens

    I just thought I'd take a moment to list some of the stuff that's on my radar right now and hopefully get some input and opinions. Feel free to do some DD on these.

    Earnings Freight Train (similar to MM strategy, this is my main screen)
    1. NUE (currently holding w/ single digit % gain)
    2. GMR (may look to enter now that I freed up some cash)
    3. BMHC (maybe overextended? Has had a big recent run up, 30 some percent in the last month)
    4-10. NAT, VLCCF, NSS, VLO(I should have held this longer )CMC, GGB, and LSS
    Notes. HOC fell completely off the list (I screen returns 20 stocks) so I'll close tomorrow @ +6.xx%

    Industry Leaders screen (never actually tracked the performance of this list, but something to watch)
    INFY, DHI (I should really buy this) NTE, QLGC, MDC, RYAAY, MUR
    Note. This list was stable for a few weeks, but all of a sudden lots dropped off and new ones came in only INFY and DHI have been there more than 2 days. Don't know what it means, maybe sector rotation (used to be full of homebuilders)

    MoMo screen (turns up some high RSI stuff, just for ideas on what to look into)
    AC, CHS, TOL (Another one I should have held longer) PRFT, DHI (appears on 2 lists), HOLX, GDP, SPF, NNI, NX, ELK, NWIRE.

    Misc watchlist
    NX
    BBSI


    See anything you like?

    Edit: Oops, for got my Pop or Drop list:
    ALMI (shows up late )
    QVDX
    ESWW (bullish engulfing, also looks like a bullflag (right spike?) )
    Last edited by scifos; 02-24-2005 at 09:19 PM.
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    8,928

    Default

    Scifos,

    I've held BMHC for almost 4 months , buying 3 times between 29.90 and 34.48 sold a batch at 36.15 and bought back on dips. It's earnings blew away estimates and I've raised my next sell point to 50 for 1/2 my remaining holdings. I think it will hit 50, but may drop 2 or three points to about 42.15 before resuming climb. This was one of my picks in the pre-presidential stock picking contest, but it didn't do anything until about Nov. 7th.

    billyjoe

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default

    I am really starting to like my freight train screen. I'm thinking of developing a trading system around it. Something like holding the top 3, use discretion in buying stocks ranked 4 or 5 (after passing other DD of course), sell half of position when stock falls to 5-12, use discretion on holding or selling stocks falling to 13-20, and sell entire position when stock exits list.
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Monroe, WI
    Posts
    6,091

    Default Freight Trains

    Scifos,

    I think you might well change your name to Freight Train. That would be an awesome moniker to go with your stock screener.

    GMR---nice tanker stock, going to pay out a big divy soon. Trying to emulate FRO for the big divies. I like it. If I had the change, it would be in my port.

    TOL--everyone keeps trying to drive the final nail in this home builder's coffin, but I just don't believe it is dead. Builder stocks are up $1.50 one day, down $1.50 the next, so entry is important for quick daytrades. But I love TOL, HOV and MDC. I think this thing Hammers. Great stock with which to build a portfolio.

    Vlo--I have watched this thing move from $50 to $70 in about three weeks, and the train is still highballing across the chart. And I'll tell you the oil stocks have not peaked. Summer driving is going to be a $2-$4 gallon experience, depending upon your location. California may very well see $4 gallon gasoline. Why? China and India are buying everything they can get their hands on. VOL is not even close to running out of steam.
    Last edited by New-born baby; 02-24-2005 at 10:52 PM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by New-born baby
    VOL--I have watched this thing move from $50 to $70 in about three weeks, and the train is still highballing across the chart. And I'll tell you the oil stocks have not peaked. Summer driving is going to be a $2-$4 gallon experience, depending upon your location. California may very well see $4 gallon gasoline. Why? China and India are buying everything they can get their hands on. VOL is not even close to running out of steam.
    For clairity's sake and for other reader's sake, I believe you mean VLO.
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default

    -=Bump=-

    Anyone else have opinion's on any of these stocks?
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default

    Update on what's back on my radar.

    HOC: Jumped back into the top 3 of my Freight Train list. Looking at the chart, I might wait for it to touch the upper channel then pull back, or buy a channel break. Its gapped, so that could fill too. Note the ADX is freaking HUGE on this one!


    GMR: Didn't like the bearish engulfing today. Its sitting right above it's significant price by volume support. Don't know if it's ready to touch the top channel or the bottom (help on this call spike?)



    NUE: Seems like this stock can't put together two consecutave up days. Okay up trend. Honestly, the technicals aren't saying much to me either way. Fundamentals are so strong though.

    NAT: Gapped up today. The play was to go long on the 22nd and head for the upper channel touch. Now that its almost there, I'd wait.


    CMC: The essense of Freight Train as evidenced by its narrow regression channels. Had a bearish engulfing today, but it was a gap fill from the day before. Its got a little weak spot volume wise right underneath it, should be interesting to see if it falls through it.


    VLO: Some uglyness today (it was a down market today afterall). May look to enter the channel touch at 70-ish. Weakening RSI and ADX, would like to see that corrected before a buy as well.


    LSS: Looking at a 6-mo chart, might be a cup w/ handle ready to break out. I'm not really very good at what exactly is a cup with handle, so Spike could help with this one.

    BXG: Recent channel turn ups, will watch closer. Could be moving out of trading mode into an uptrend, but I'd like to see confirmation of it first.

    Other stuff:
    TOL still looks strong, could be an entry point.
    Still watching BBSI
    Looking for NX to come back down to 56-57 range.
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hastings, NE
    Posts
    655

    Default

    Great Thread!!!! Keep It Coming, Your two cents is worth a nickel. ===> M.E.A.
    GO BIG RED!!!!!

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    Location
    South Dakota
    Posts
    789

    Default

    lol, every stock listed above is down at the moment. NX getting close to a buy point I think.
    Buy Low
    Sell High
    STAY FROSTY!

  10. #10
    Hany Guest

    Default Nx

    Here is what S&P said about NX:

    Quanex produces hot rolled special bar quality carbon and alloy steel bars and aluminum building products.

    Sector: Materials
    Sub-Industry: Steel
    Peer Group: Steelmakers - Specialty

    S&P Earnings & Dividend Rank: B
    NX is more investable than 91% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.
    12-Month Target Price: $68.00
    Therefore, it is rated a BUY

    - Following NX's pre-announcement of EPS of $1.20 to $1.30 for FY 05's first quarter, we upgraded our opinion on the shares to buy, from hold, on a more optimistic outlook for EPS. NX's revised guidance for the quarter was far in excess of our $0.70 estimate. The company cited improvement at existing operations, strong market conditions, and contributions from acquisitions. On our expectation that this improvement will continue for the balance of FY 05, we increased our EPS estimate for the year to $5.10, from $3.06.

    - Risks to our recommendation and target price include possible shortfalls in sales and EPS, due to unanticipated weakness in the company's end markets. NX's sales are highly dependent on the auto and housing markets.

    - Based on our revised FY 05 EPS estimate, our 12-month target price is $68. We assume that the P/E multiple will expand, driven by what we see as a much stronger balance sheet and rising free cash flow. At 13X our projected EPS, the stock's P/E multiple at our target price would be slightly above the midpoint of its historical range over the past 10 years.

    My worthless opinion: great, steel prices will stay high. Homebuilding will stay strong for a little longer with the accomodative policies of Feds. The Auto industry should benefit a little bit from the very weak dollar. I think that NX is a good stock to buy and I'm looking to buy it in the next 4 days.

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