Poll on Ernie's MDC record

We have many new people on board, so let's see how this one goes. On July 10, 2002 (this is not a missprint), Mr. Market stated that "Today I bought (MDC) MDC Holdings at 51.25. I will sell it in 4-6 weeks at 59.40." Do you think Mr. Market's streak should continue as an advertised streak if he sells it over a year after the 4-6 weeks ended--- long after the STATED TIME FRAME under which Mr. Market said IN HIS OWN WORDS that he would realize his 15% profit?

[mrmarket]

Originally Posted by bec1wnbc66

We have many new people on board, so let's see how this one goes. On July 10, 2002 (this is not a missprint), Mr. Market stated that "Today I bought (MDC) MDC Holdings at 51.25. I will sell it in 4-6 weeks at 59.40." Do you think Mr. Market's streak should continue as an advertised streak if he sells it over a year after the 4-6 weeks ended--- long after the STATED TIME FRAME under which Mr. Market said IN HIS OWN WORDS that he would realize his 15% profit?

I'm not sure why I need to say this more than once. Probably because you've raised this issue more than once. I predicted I would sell MDC within 4 to 6 weeks. My prediction did not come to fruition.

My "streak" of 32 consecutive profitable closed trades of 15% or better is still very much intact.

My prediction has nothing to do with my "streak". My streak has nothing to do with my prediction.

I am not measuring a streak of consecutive profitable trades that fall within my initial prediction.

I am measuring a streak of consecutive profitable closed trades of 15% or better.

There is a difference.

Now I need to ask you a question. Why is this so difficult for you to understand the difference?? You seem to be intelligent but you also seem not to be able to understand this rather simple distinction. Almost everyone else on this board understands this difference but it seems to keep you up at night. Very very peculiar.

Then why make the time stated prediction at all? Now THAT is something to think about---very, very peculiar (maybe it would keep you up at night if you had to change your ways???) . My whole point is that you are an intelligent guy (and I appreciate your saying likewise) and so why make a statement you end up disregarding? Here is an example for you:

Let's say (of course just making this one up...) there is a baseball team in Boston that has not won a World Series since 1918. But in 1919 you say that the team will win the World Series in 4-6 years. You tell that to whoever you placed a bet with in Las Vegas stating that time frame (IF YOU DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE THE TIME FRAME YOU WOULD NOT HAVE STATED IT TO BEGIN WITH AS IT IS MEANINGLESS AND MISLEADING). The team (not that this will happen of course, as this is just a fictitious example ) wins the World Championship in 2003. Does Las Vegas say you won? Do baseball fans think your skills are huge? You are so stubborn---all you have to do is remove the stupid boasted, self-imposed, definitive time frame or modify what you are saying. But nooooooooo, don't listen to me, to Karel, or others---now I know why that old NARA board etc. (not just me) called you on the carpet for the streak/what you are saying. But, I have good news for you---I just saved a bunch of money by switching my car insurance to GEICO

[mrmarket]

Originally Posted by bec1wnbc66

Then why make the time stated prediction at all? Now THAT is something to think about---very, very peculiar (maybe it would keep you up at night if you had to change your ways???) . My whole point is that you are an intelligent guy (and I appreciate your saying likewise) and so why make a statement you end up disregarding? Here is an example for you:

Let's say (of course just making this one up...) there is a baseball team in Boston that has not won a World Series since 1918. But in 1919 you say that the team will win the World Series in 4-6 years. You tell that to whoever you placed a bet with in Las Vegas stating that time frame (IF YOU DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE THE TIME FRAME YOU WOULD NOT HAVE STATED IT TO BEGIN WITH AS IT IS MEANINGLESS AND MISLEADING). The team (not that this will happen of course, as this is just a fictitious example ) wins the World Championship in 2003. Does Las Vegas say you won? Do baseball fans think your skills are huge? You are so stubborn---all you have to do is remove the stupid boasted, self-imposed, definitive time frame or modify what you are saying. But nooooooooo, don't listen to me, to Karel, or others---now I know why that old NARA board etc. (not just me) called you on the carpet for the streak/what you are saying. But, I have good news for you---I just saved a bunch of money by switching my car insurance to GEICO

Would it make you happy if we kept track of two streaks ?

- My "official" streak of 32 consecutive profitable closed trades of 15% or better (which, in my opinion is a remarkable streak).

and

- The Bec1 streak of the # of consecutive trades profitable trades of 15% or better that were closed in 4 to 6 weeks.

if this makes you happy, I will continue to track the former, and you can volunteer to track the latter.

Whether or not I sell it in 4 weeks or two years..15% is a good return and I'm proud to recognize the accomplishment. As a result, I'll continue to keep track of it. For the record, it is at 32 and hopefully will be at 33 by this time tomorrow.

That is a funny one, 2 streaks! Like I said, stubborn!!! It's like Bush and Gore---Bush wins by the official electoral college (the stated word,what is written) but you can be like Gore supporters and say you are keeping track of the popular vote and he wins!

Hey, two more neat examples for you: Bruce Springsteen says he will perform at Shea Stadium in 4-6 weeks. He does not show up for 10 years and you stay at the stadium the whole time in between, leaving your kids, your wife, your portfolio management, your work at HESS etc. during that time. Wonder what the reaction will be by your kids etc. about Bruce Springsteen being HUGE? Example 2: you tell your fiancee you will be at the altar in 4-6 weeks but you show up in 20 years. Think you would be a hero to her?

[mrmarket]

Originally Posted by bec1wnbc66

That is a funny one, 2 streaks! LIke I said, stubborn!!! It's like Bush and Gore---Bush wins by the official electoral college (the stated word,what is written) but you can be like Gore supporters and say you are keeping track of the popular vote and he wins (forget the stated word, just use some other barometer). You are a trip!

Hey, two more neat examples for you: Bruce Springsteen says he will perform at Shea Stadium in 4-6 weeks. He does not show up for 10 years and you stay at the stadium the whole time in between, leaving your kids, your wife, your portfolio management, your work at HESS etc. during that time. Wonder what the reaction will be by your kids etc. about Bruce Springsteen being HUGE? Example 2: you tell your fiancee you will be at the altar in 4-6 weeks but you show up in 20 years. Think you would be a hero to her? (much less to your kids as there would not be any!).

I am beginning to think the Red Sox winning a World Series has a better chance of happening than you seeing the light (and believe me, the former is a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG SHOT)!

The good thing about this board is that these discussions don't end up in anyone's email. I have finished making my point, which is very clear to me. I don't at all understand your point, via your analogies, and you have failed to educate me. Perhaps others on this board are more enlightened. As a result, I will no longer be discussing this topic with you.

[jiesen]

I voted no, but with a caveat. The answers are loaded. A simple yes/no would have been adequate, but to put additional words in the poll such as 'words have no meaning' is putting words in the voter's statement that shouldn't be there.

I do not agree that words have no meaning, rather, words often have various meanings, and in this case, I believe the 4-6 week prediction is meant to be taken lightly, and nobody should expect every pick to meet that timeframe- it would be damn near impossible.

Bruce, maybe you should add another button to your poll- Other- for those who don't wish to have words put into their mouth. And what's up with your damn obsession about this anyway? What did $$MM ever do to you? [/u]

Ernie: You're throwing pearls before swine. Don't demean yourself.

I will leave it thus then for others if they so choose to enlighten you---for some reason my points and other posters to date can't penetrate the Fenway Wall.

[thebign1]

mrmarket Posted: Wed Oct 01, 2003 3:12 am Post subject: Re: Forgetaboutit!

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bec1wnbc66 wrote:
That is a funny one, 2 streaks! LIke I said, stubborn!!! It's like Bush and Gore---Bush wins by the official electoral college (the stated word,what is written) but you can be like Gore supporters and say you are keeping track of the popular vote and he wins (forget the stated word, just use some other barometer). You are a trip!

Hey, two more neat examples for you: Bruce Springsteen says he will perform at Shea Stadium in 4-6 weeks. He does not show up for 10 years and you stay at the stadium the whole time in between, leaving your kids, your wife, your portfolio management, your work at HESS etc. during that time. Wonder what the reaction will be by your kids etc. about Bruce Springsteen being HUGE? Example 2: you tell your fiancee you will be at the altar in 4-6 weeks but you show up in 20 years. Think you would be a hero to her? (much less to your kids as there would not be any!).

I am beginning to think the Red Sox winning a World Series has a better chance of happening than you seeing the light (and believe me, the former is a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG SHOT)!




The good thing about this board is that these discussions don't end up in anyone's email. I have finished making my point, which is very clear to me. I don't at all understand your point, via your analogies, and you have failed to educate me. Perhaps others on this board are more enlightened. As a result, I will no longer be discussing this topic with you.



Ernie, Maybe bec1 doesn't think that your sincere. When you buy a stock do really feel it in your heart that you are going to sell it in 4-6 weeks?
I think you do, so I would leave it just the way that you feel it.

Regards, Norm