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  1. #1

    Default DECK ==> The May Day Winner!

    When I was a junior in college, all of the guys on the football team started to wear clogs. It was really peculiar. Then G-berg got clogs. Then Titanomega got clogs. I didn’t like the idea of wearing clogs. If you got all hammerhead sharked at Smokey Joes and got in a tiff with guys from Temple or Villanova, it was very difficult to fight in clogs. Then the Worm got clogs, but he could never get anyway. Actually clogs were very impractical. Fighting in clogs is worse than fighting in loafers or fighting with sandals on. Speaking of sandals, how come when all those Iraqis burn up those cars, they start kicking the cars with their sandals? I mean, they can’t even dent the cars and it must burn their feet. I think if I were going to get in a fight or burn up a car, it would be far superior to wear Ugg boots.

    Today I bought DECK (Deckers Outdoor) at 27.13. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 31.43. Here’s why I like DECK:

    DECK stock is up 413% in the last 52 weeks. Despite this remarkable run, its PE is only a modest 34.7. Ok, maybe that’s a little more than modest, but when your grandma starts wearing Uggs, you know you have not yet tapped into the growth potential of DECK. True to word, the forward PE is only around 15. The chart is climbing a stairway to the stars, with an R^2 of 0.96:

    This is rock solid unmitigated price momentum.

    They’re so ugly, they’re cute. They’re so comfortable, they’re irresistible. And they’re so popular in the United States that, unless you wear a size six or a size 10 shoe, you can hardly find a pair. We’re talking about Uggs, the sheepskin boots originally worn by Australian surfers and now swaddling the pampered peds of Kate Hudson, Sarah Jessica Parker and a host of other hot actresses. Oprah Winfrey wore them. She’s not that hot, but you get the picture:

    The stores can’t keep them in stock. They are flying off the shelves so fast, people are getting concussions as they get smoted on the head. People are scalping them on Ebay for $400 per pair. Footwear News ranked it the 2003 Brand of the Year. What happens is that when you have a good product and people start wearing it, it becomes word-of-mouth and it spreads. It was an undiscovered brand that was a surfer boot. Through a series of product placements, getting in magazines and being featured on shows such as Oprah it has been discovered. The kids begin to catch on. High school girls on the (US east and west) coasts are wearing them with miniskirts. Uggs are now popular for summer and for cold weather. Ugg boots are thermostatic — comfortable even in extremes of temperature. These boots are the Must-have trendy footwear for everyone from pop princesses to the most down to earth. Ugg Boots are Australian and made from sheepskin (there's a lot of sheep there so they've had plenty of opportunity to get it just right!) and make for incredibly warm, comfortable and soft footwear.

    Look at these internet testimonials:

    “I've worn Ugg boots for years. They are so warm and comfy. They are my house slippers when it's cold, but I wear them "apres ski" up in the mountains too. I have the black smallish-medium height boots that you can fold over to show the sheepskin, but I don't. Is that the "Classic Short" style? BTW, don't wear these in the rain, as you can easily slip!”



    “I was just down in Monterey for a few days and I saw at least four or five people wearing Ugg boots. Mostly it seemed to be skinny young girls with long straight hair and cropped tops (even in the cold weather we've been having here in NoCal). I thought this was interesting--possible trend alert?”


    Forget, for a moment, that stylish women are wearing knee-high, stiletto-heeled boots this season. The alternative statement is to glide around in simple, flat-heeled sheepskin-lined boots that look like something a cavewoman might have worn 10,000 years ago.

    Barely into the boot season, Denver shoe-seller Louis Livaditis has shipped six pairs to a woman in Britain and has fielded between 50 and 75 calls a day at his shop, the Sheepskin Factory, which sells them for up to $US165 ($A22.

    Livaditis has about 100 pairs remaining for the season. "I wish I had 1000 pairs," Livaditis says. He’s been selling Uggs for 15 years because, "Once a customer buys them, they are hooked. They are worth every penny. They are good-looking, comfortable and very warm".

    With all of the oooos and aaahhhh over UGG, the big sales come from those Teva sandals. You know those rubber ones that make your feet smell? People wear, and wear out Tevas, and buy new ones. I walk around college campuses…kids don’t wear shoes anymore. They all wear sandals, that is unless they are wearing Uggs.

    So we know these are great products, but is the company making any money off of them? Ugg boots are blazing a trail for DECK. Their first-quarter revenue was $44.3 million, up 23% from the prior year. Earnings gained 32% to 49 cents a share. Ugg sales more than tripled this quarter as the boots continue to be a hot fashion item.

    Deckers raised its $153 million to $162 million 2004 sales guidance to $166 million to $174 million, and upped the $1.25 to $1.35 earnings per share to $1.42 to $1.51. It expects the Ugg line to contribute $75 million in sales this year. ANAL-lysts have it right down the middle at $1.47/share. People people puh-leeeze!! My sides are splitting laughing at these sandbag estimates. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees 2004 revenues coming in at $184 million. This will translate into earnings per share of $1.59/share. At today’s P/E of 34.7, that propels the share price to $55.17, which is well past my target sell price.

    We are in the very beginning of the fashion up-tick on Ugg. Wait til the pathetic baby boomers start buying and wearing them. Also we have yet to see Ugg pocketbooks to go with the shoes. There is big upside here. Don’t forget, the economy will be smoking hot by the end of this year.

    There is a marked increase in sheepskin boots lately -- particularly on women. UGG's are the hot brand in the sheepskin subsegment, having found their way from the feet of Australian surfers to American starlets. Some retailers are reporting trouble keeping them in stock. UGG advocates say they'll work in warm weather as well as cold. Sheepskin footwear is hardly new, but it's never been in vogue like this. For the time being, however, it's a welcome source of relatively big-ticket revenue for Deckers and its shareholders.

    Deckers expanded the brand from six styles to more than 100 that now include baby pink, baby blue and lime sheepskin. The company focused on distributing the boots to retailers like Nordstrom and higher-end independent shoe stores to reinforce the luxury image. Deckers then turned its attention to expanding the brand outside California, especially because the product is designed for cold-weather wear. Now the company can’t keep up with the demand in the Midwest and East and especially in Manhattan, where many residents do their best to emulate the pages of fashion magazines.

    Deckers Outdoor Corp. is missing out on thousands, possibly millions of dollars of sales due to demand outstripping supply. The short supply of boots is creating pent-up demand that adds an edge to Ugg boots’ image. The boots have become very popular, and the scarcity of them is just adding to that. Your friend has them. You want them and you can’t get them. That’s the formula for a style being cool and staying cool for a while.

    Doug Otto, the president and chief executive officer of Deckers, is a surfer himself and introduced the boots to the company’s management. In 1995, the company, which also produces Teva sport sandals and Simple shoes, bought Ugg and repositioned the brand. This surfer dude CEO owns a large percentage of DECK stock. His dog probably wears Uggs. Here’s what he has to say:

    “We are pleased as the strong momentum we experienced in fiscal 2003 has continued into the new year. These results have been primarily driven by robust growth in our Teva® business, both domestically and abroad, and continued increases in our UGG® business. We believe this performance is a testament to the strength of these brands.. We have begun the 2004 fiscal year with good brand momentum and strong financial results. We remain focused on further leveraging our brands and fully capitalizing on our leadership position in the marketplace."

    "We are very pleased with our fourth quarter performance, driven primarily by strong demand for Ugg® and Teva® coupled with further improvements in gross margin and continued leverage of our operating expenses. These results contributed to record annual operating income in 2003 and highlight a strong ending to a great year."

    "Fiscal 2003 was an important year for Deckers strategically, operationally and financially," Mr. Otto continued. "From a brand perspective we were able to leverage the acquisition of Teva to further build our leadership position in the market and create new opportunities for growth. In addition, Ugg continued to experience a significant increase in demand and exposure across the country and we successfully repositioned Simple for the future. During the year we significantly improved our balance sheet and further enhanced our operating platform. Our efforts did not go unnoticed as UGG was named 2003 Brand of the Year by Footwear News."

    "Our traditional sandal business performed very well during the spring and summer months and the strong momentum continued into the fall. Late last year, we signed a number of licensing agreements for Teva and look forward to further leveraging our strong brand name into outdoor apparel, headwear, eyewear and watches. Ugg recorded its sixth consecutive year of double-digit growth and enjoyed unprecedented press coverage throughout the year, especially during the holiday season. We also recently announced a licensing partnership for Ugg handbags and small leather goods and we will selectively pursue similar deals as we look to drive the brand's lifestyle message to a broader audience. Finally, we worked hard throughout the year to get Simple® back on track and focused on expanding the core product offering. Included in the new Simple line is a moderately priced shearling boot line, which has received very good response. As we look ahead into 2004 and beyond we remain enthusiastic about the potential of our strong portfolio of niche brands and our unique position in the marketplace."

    With the money I make from this HUGE stock pick, I’m going to buy a pair of UGGS. If you want, I’ll put up a picture of me wearing them on this thread.

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    tokyojoeskid is offline No Posting allowed; invalid email
    Join Date
    Oct 2003

    Default the other side of the coin?


    are they fools maybe . . . but it is worth reading.

    Everyone loves Uggs at my college, my girlfriend wheres them out and at least five other girls ask her what they are and where she got them.
    how long will they stay hot??? probably a long time because it is so hard to get them.
    I am in with you for a small postion

  3. #3
    stockmarketwizard Guest


    Very nice write up on the fundamental case for buying DECK.

    However, I would caution you on the technicals on this stock.

    Firstly, I would be prepared to get out if you get a close below
    the 50 day MA. This stock has consistantly bounced off the
    50 day moving average in the past. So if it fails now on a closing
    basis, it indicates potential trouble. Also, it is too early to determine
    if today's trading action will indicate a reversal of the recent
    downtrend. Even it it closes near the top of the days range,
    the volume is on the light side so far. A real red flag here is
    a recent bearish cross on the daily chart in the DMI which is one
    of my favorite indicators that I use for entry/exit. It has kept me
    from getting into countless perilous situations.

    With all that said, the odds are DECK goes lower before it resumes
    it uptrend. I may buy this stock but waiting for a bullish chart.

  4. #4
    tokyojoeskid is offline No Posting allowed; invalid email
    Join Date
    Oct 2003

    Default 50 day

    So if it bounces once is hits the 50 day would you consider it a bullish chart?

    50day ma is 26.33 so buy and set your stop at 25.95. On the past two bounces off the 50day it has gone a couple pennies under the 50day then returned. If a couple pennies is 33 cents setting your stop under 26 will help you, as 26.00 could act as a pyschological pivot point.


  5. #5
    dahobachir Guest

    Default logistic regression

    have u ever considered logistic regression ??

  6. #6
    eugenewinston Guest

    Default UGGS

    The in-crowd kids in New York knew they were cool a year ago. Now they are just Ugg! The fad is on the downside of the cycle. There may be enough momentum to push it to 31, but their next yearly projection should not be that glorious. Unless they decide to open markets in MA, MI, OR and the like, where Earth Shoes and Marshmellows are still fashionable footwear.

  7. #7
    stockmarketwizard Guest


    Up day on better than average volume. Definitely a plus.
    But, I don't like the tail on todays chart where it attempted
    to rally above resistance and failed with a nuetral close.
    Would have been a terrific daytrade.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong pullback in the market
    over the next few weeks so I may miss a nice move up
    but not compelled to get in yet.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    South Dakota


    Looking good today, this should help me forget about last month
    Buy Low
    Sell High

  9. #9
    stockmarketwizard Guest


    So much for reading charts...

    Congratulations to another terrific call by Mr. Market.

    I just wonder how much of this move could be due to the many people now following Mr. Market? Have his calls started to become a self-fulfilling prophecy?? If so, he will be wise to continue to choose low cap thinly traded issues.

    It would be very interesting to run a poll and find out how many people reading this board bought DECK (and the number of shares) on his call?

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jan 2004
    South Dakota


    Quote Originally Posted by stockmarketwizard
    I just wonder how much of this move could be due to the many people now following Mr. Market? Have his calls started to become a self-fulfilling prophecy??
    I'll refer you to http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=445
    Buy Low
    Sell High

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