BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Mid Week Update for the week ending August 16, 2019.

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I closed every position I had today. I’m flat, totally in cash. I still like all of the stocks in my long term list. It’s just that the market is giving out some very bearish signals, and I don’t want to see my gains erode any more than they already have. If I am wrong about this, I will just start rebuilding my positions sooner rather then later. I just want to see some bullish confirmation from the market before I put my money back in.

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

You want to see a stock in a free fall, check out Dropbox:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sccyqtqr16...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I hope there are no going concern issues there. I have a lot of files stored there including all the charts I published here.

[Louetta]

You want to see a stock in a free fall, check out Dropbox:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sccyqtqr16...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I hope there are no going concern issues there. I have a lot of files stored there including all the charts I published here.

Based on reports published August 9 the write-up from The Fool is actually kind of positive:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d...204300500.html

Same with Bloomberg:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dropb...182429816.html

[BlueWolf]

Based on reports published August 9 the write-up from The Fool is actually kind of positive:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-d...204300500.html

Same with Bloomberg:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dropb...182429816.html

They do seem bullish on the company, and the revenue story seems pretty solid. I was watching it for a possible bounce day/swing trade. Now I’m a little intrigued by the longer term story.

[riverbabe]

You want to see a stock in a free fall, check out Dropbox:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/sccyqtqr16...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

I hope there are no going concern issues there. I have a lot of files stored there including all the charts I published here.

Couldn't resist posting this LOL. https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/15/2...07525020190816

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for the week ending August 23, 2019.

Short Term Bias:Neutral
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar so I have not included separate charts for these indices.

I made a big bet this week when I went flat in all my long term positions. It’s not that I don’t still love most of the stocks I owned, it’s more that I am seeing bearish signs in the market that suggest a deep correction may be imminent. I admit that this call is somewhat anticipatory, and I may have taken myself out of the game too early. I just see other factors putting pressure on the market to correct, however. The recession fears, in particular, are palpable, and any bad economic news is likely going to use those fears as bear fuel. For now, some good economic news, including good retail sales figures and talk of economic stimulus, staved off any more panic selling, but I remain skeptical. It’s not that I think a recession in imminent. It’s more that I think the fears of a recession are putting pressure on the market that is likely to manifest itself as a significant correction. Hyper inflated valuations, fueled by growth, and a mixed result earnings season are also feeding those fears. Any signs that growth is slowing is going to take a toll on the market. Hence, my long term bias has changed to bearish for the first time in a while.

For the short term, I am not entirely certain about the mess that has occurred over the last two weeks. I could just as easily see the market moving up over the next several days as I could see it continuing to move down. A key level is Tuesday’s high, which may or may not be a lower pivot low. Should the short term action take out that high, around 8065, I might have to re-assess my sentiments. Clearly if the market makes a new high, the long term bull trend is alive and well and the mess that has been the market over the last two weeks was just a higher pivot low. We’ll just have to see. I’d welcome your opinions on it.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gd42habem3...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

As for stocks I will be watching for day/swing treading opportunities to start the week, I have a few I’m interested in.
Longs: AROC, AYX, DBX (Still looking for that dead cat bounce), ENPH, REAL, RUHN
Shorts: KRNT, LTS, VRNT, WW

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for the week ending August 30, 2019.

Short Term Bias:Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar so I have not included separate charts for these indices.

Well, the market gapped up on Monday and had me wondering if my bearish fears were justified. Then Friday happened. At the very least, that bar has me bearishly inclined going into next week, hence my bearish short term bias. As for the long term, the fact that the indices continues to hover around the 62% Fibonacci retrace level of the long term trend’s last leg up is concerning. No, the indices have not yet broken that level, but all three indices have challenged that level three times now. It’s possible it will hold and the market will rebound, but I am still convinced that all the signs are pointing to more downside. As I said in my chart notes last week, recession and trade war fears are weighing heavy on the minds of investors and that is putting pressure on the market. That pressure is likely to relieve itself as a correction. Fear rules, things correct, and then one day everybody exhales and starts buying again. Such is the market. In any event, as you can see from my chart notes, I am still long term bearish, and I continue to sit in cash.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4zz1dye0n1...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Day/Swing Trade Watch List to start week:
Longs: AEM, KL, RUHN,
Shorts: ADVM, AROC, DBD, FL, GDOT, HAS, PEN, TELL, VRNT, WW

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[Louetta]

I was listening to a fellow named Sri-Kumar who gained some fame when last December Jamie Dimon said the US 10 yr bond was going to 4% and Kumar said next day on CNBC it would go to 2 before it went to 4. Anyway now it's at 1.6%.

Kumar says it's going to 1% which will end any debate about whether the curve is inverted, thus predicting recession for sure. His logic is that with the German 30 yr now negative, Europeans will start buying dollars to buy US bonds. Why not get more interest investing in the strongest economy? This demand will send US rates lower and the dollar higher (they have to buy dollars to buy our bonds) which, along with weak consumer demand in Europe, will hurt large US companies who sell lots of stuff outside the US. Recession fear and lower earnings for the large caps will further erode the stock market. Plus a settling of the trade dispute looks less and less likely any time soon, removing the chance of much upside.

All of which says you are correct in being bearish.

[BlueWolf]

Great information, Louetta.

[mimo_100]

from Forbes 10/23/2018

Recession Is Overdue By 4.5 Years, Here's How To Prepare
Cameron Keng

Recession is a “bad word” in politics, but it’s part of the natural economy. Similar to a tide ebbing and flowing, the economy will boom and bust. The technical term used by economists for the ebb and flow in business cycles are “expansions and contractions.” It’s unnatural for any nation to have an economy that is in an eternal expansion or boom.

There were 33 business cycles in the United States between 1854 and 2009 based on the National Bureau of Economic Research. The average length of a growing economy is 38.7 months or 3.2 years. The average recession lasts for 17.5 months or 1.5 years. A full business cycle on average is 4.7 years.

The longest contraction or recession of record in the United States was the Great Depression in 1929 that lasted 43 months or 3.6 years. The second longest recession was the “Great Recession” that we all experienced in 2007 that lasted 18 months or 1.5 years. This was caused by the real estate bubble that was created during our longest expansion period or boom between 1991 and 2001.

All the statistics above is to explain a simple concept. A booming economy will lead to a recession because the economy will overheat or create a bubble that will burst. The longer we artificially extend our expansion or economic boom, the bigger the recession we create. The natural business cycle’s economic boom will create more wealth than the recession will erode. When we artificially affect the economy, we throw the natural business cycle out of order. Thus, we may lose more than the wealth we’ve created during the economic boom.

How Did We Get Here – Today?

As of today, we’ve artificially extended our “expansion or economic boom” for a total of 111 months or 9.25 years. Governments have the ability to help stimulate the market through government spending and regulations. Increased government spending will increase the amount of economic activity. Regulations such as lowering interest rate will make it easier for businesses obtain the margins necessary to create a profit.

In the Great Recession of 2007, we used economic stimulus packages during the Obama era to inject life into our economy. Also, we lowered our interest rates to levels close to zero percent (0%). To compare, our Federal Reserve interest rate floated around 5.75% historically during the 1990s to the 2000s. We at one point in history had the Federal Reserve interest rate at 20%. I remember when I was a child; the bank paid 10.91% interest to the average American.

read the rest of the article here

https://www.forbes.com/sites/cameron.../#6d1e1d3540d8