BlueWolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment (New and Improved with Better Flavor!)

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Feb 26, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar to the Dow, and I have not included their charts.

All three indices made new highs early in the week. The NASDAQ, however, then pulled back and bounced off its regression channel’s lower boundary. In mild contrast, the Dow and the S&P both based near their highs and look poised to move higher. For these reasons, my short term bias remains bullish. Since all three indices remain well within their regression channels and have recently made new highs, my long term bias is bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/gxyr3krviu...02021.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will watching at the start of the new week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
QS
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
BYND, RBBN, YI, YY
Buy and Hold Candidates:
BL, EXPI, MGNI
Interesting Recent IPOs:
RAAS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Mar 5, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P is somewhat similar to the Dow and I have therefore not included this charts.

Well, we had a bloody week, with all three indices closing down, week-over-week. It was more the way they closed down, however, that has me concerned. The NASDAQ’s uptrend completely broke down with the Dow and S&P teasing the lower boundary of their channels and looking like they had considerable downward momentum. Friday’s closing bar on the Dow is particularly worrisome. For these reasons, my short and long term bias is now bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4djyskdn9m...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/m4afi0cl8a...02021.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will watching at the start of the new week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
AMKR, FTNT
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
NMRK, NYCB
Buy and Hold Candidates:
(none)
Interesting Recent IPOs:
(none)

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Mar 12, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P.

It was a bloody week for the NASDAQ and the index finished down significantly week-over-week. The S&P and Dow, however, while dropping down early in the week actually finished up week-over-week in a fairly significant divergence from the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ had previously broken down out of its regression channel in the prior week, and the S&P joined it this week such that both indices have technically become bearish. In another divergence, the Dow continued to trade within its regression channel and is therefore technically still in an uptrend. On a shorter term scale, all three indices enjoyed a bit of a bounce on Friday, with the Dow and S&P forming a bullish pattern called a “One White Soldier,” and the NASDAQ forming a narrow green bar with a significant bottoming tail. These Friday bars lead me to believe that a near term bounce may be imminent in the indices. For that reason, my short term bias is bullish. I am not convinced however, that this bounce will morph into a new uptrend. With both the NASDAQ and S&P trading outside of their previous uptrend channels and the Dow sort of basing sideways at a recent low, I think there may be more downside to come. For that reason, my long term bias remains bearish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ei4khbeyb7...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7ahcpt80tz...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/tcwtkjrxtg...02021.jpg?dl=0

I won’t be shorting any stocks to start the week because I am convinced there may be a bounce coming. If I short, I will short into that bounce. Right now, all the patterns I saw were too far extended to the downside to short. Here are the other stocks I will watching at the start of the new week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
EXPI, FIZZ, GH, IPOD, IPOF, LMND, NTNX, QDEL, ROKU, SPCE, TTD, WDAY
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
(none)
Buy and Hold Candidates:
(none)
Interesting Recent IPOs:
(none)

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Mar 19, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bearish
Long Term Bias: Bearish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P.

All three indices had very strong weeks, although I’m cautious about their future direction. The NASDAQ had a very strong week, but ended up right at the border of its new downtrending regression channel, hinting at a possible reversal as Friday’s bar gave up some ground despite moving up during the day. The S&P ended up right near the bottom of its old uptrending regression channel, a possible reversal point. The S&P still has some ground to make up in order for it to take out its prior pivot high and confirm that it is still in an uptrend, but Thursday’s topping tail hinted at a little exhaustion. The Dow looked extremely strong as it continues its divergence from the other two indices. It did, however, extend itself beyond the upward bounds of its uptrending regression channel, and looks due for some kind of pullback. For all these reasons, and my belief that some sort of near term pullback is probably imminent, my near term bias has returned to bearish. My long bias remains bearish because I haven’t yet seen enough to convince me that the overall direction of the market has changed.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hv8qp322wl...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/omf2tbou8k...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/hv8qp322wl...02021.jpg?dl=0

Despite my belief that a short term pullback may be coming, I couldn’t really find a whole lot of stocks in my scans that looked like primo short candidates. I continue to find long bounce candidates, but these would have to be played delicately, and only with the direction of the market, i.e. I wouldn’t trade any of them long on a down day. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
EXPI, FSLY, IPOD, LMND, NTNX, NVCR, PLTR, SFIX, SKLZ, SPCE, TDOC
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
(none)
Buy and Hold Candidates:
(none)
Interesting Recent IPOs:
(none)

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending Mar 26, 2021

Short Term Bias: Neutral
Long Term Bias: Neutral

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P.

All three indices had down weeks, but this short term downward movement did not break what the longer term bullish trends in the Dow and S&P. I have therefore changed my long term bias to neutral as we wait to see if these two indices reconcile with the NASDAQ. The NASDAQ remains the weakest of the three indices by far, as the tech sell off continues, but the NASDAQ did form a short term double top. This could indicate that the index has transitioned from bearishness to consolidation. All three indices still have room to move further down within their regression channels, so we may have another down week. A boost for the bulls, however, could be in the making if the NASDAQ can reverse from here and head higher, forming a higher pivot low. As a result of this indecision, my short term bias for next week is neutral as I wait to see how things play out.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/c2zecz94hp...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/psloqbviy1...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/o988zsu5e8...02021.jpg?dl=0

I didn’t see a lot of top quality short term plays in my scans, but I turned up a few stocks of interest. Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
NVAX, STAA
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
CB, FSB, WOW
Buy and Hold Candidates:
SDGR
Interesting Recent IPOs:
RAAS

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 2, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish (slightly)

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar enough to the Dow that I did not feel the need to include a separate chart.

Divergence is still the name of the game. The Dow and S&P both had good weeks, finishing up, week-over-week, while the NASDAQ finished down. Both the S&P and the Dow remain well within their uptrending regression channels with room to spare before head butting the upper bounds. Although the NASDAQ finished down, it ended the week on an up note and looks to be forming an ascending triangle. For these reason, my short term bias is bullish. For the longer, the divergence continues to trouble me. Whereas the Dow and S&P are showing good long term strength, the NASDAQ continues to struggle and has given up ground it just does not seem able to gain back. This prevents me from giving a wholehearted thumbs up for the long term, but there is enough bullishness for me to change my long term bias to slight bullishness overall.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ux80nywfc1...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6735nh27fe...02021.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks, including a few dead cat bounce possibilities, that I will be watching to start the week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
BJ, CBD, DISCA*, EQIX, FSLR, GSX*, IQ*, RES, TER, VIAC*
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
SAVA
Buy and Hold Candidates:
STAA
Interesting Recent IPOs:
(none)

*-Dead cat bounce candidates

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

Market sentiment for week ending April 9, 2021

Short Term Bias: Bullish
Long Term Bias: Bullish

I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, Dow, and S&P because all three indices are acting slightly differently.

Divergence remains the name of the game, although all three indices are now looking pretty bullish. This week the NASDAQ and the S&P both had strong weeks, finishing up, week-over-week, with the S&P making a new high. The Dow finished down, week-over-week, but only slightly and has formed a little base at its high, looking poised to move higher. The Dow and S&P remain bullish, and now the NASDAQ, which has formed an ascending triangle, is looking pretty bullish itself. For these reason, both my short term and long term bias is bullish.

Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/uvoge3u5eb...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1e9gdgr5vv...02021.jpg?dl=0

Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ewcmnvpqw8...02021.jpg?dl=0

Here are the stocks I will be watching to start the week:
Day Trade and Swing Trade Long Candidates:
BNTC, MASI, NOW, NVDA, RES, TSM, ZEN, ZNGA
Day Trade and Swing Trade Short Candidates:
(none)
Buy and Hold Candidates:
CRM, MDB, SNOW
Interesting Recent IPOs:
(none)

Good luck with your trading and investing.

[BlueWolf]

No Market sentiment this week. Got busy with a project this weekend.