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 Presidential elections and the stock market
From Kiplinger
S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????
current August 3 2016 =======> 2,163.79
A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.
The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.
Read more at http://www.kiplinger.com/article/inv...fiw6b2oBaQB.99
Last edited by mimo_100; 10-24-2016 at 11:13 PM.
Tim - Retired Problem Solver
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 Originally Posted by mimo_100
From Kiplinger
[...] The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, [...]
Rap Kiplinger over the knuckles. 22 data points don’t make for “compelling statistics”.
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Originally Posted by Karel
Rap Kiplinger over the knuckles. 22 data points don’t make for “compelling statistics”.
It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Things are bad so the market tanks and they kick the bums out. But they kick the bums out because things are bad, the market tanking is just another manifestation of things being bad.
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Originally Posted by Louetta
It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Things are bad so the market tanks and they kick the bums out. But they kick the bums out because things are bad, the market tanking is just another manifestation of things being bad.
It certainly is plausible. But plausible is a long way from compelling. It would be fun to see how things work out this time. An unguided missile like Trump could upset any plausibility.
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Originally Posted by Karel
It certainly is plausible. But plausible is a long way from compelling. It would be fun to see how things work out this time. An unguided missile like Trump could upset any plausibility.
It would be compelling if it actually did happen as it has in the past. Perhaps with certitude and conviction, the results may in fact eventuate before November.
Tim - Retired Problem Solver
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S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60
current August 3 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,163.79
current August 10 2016 10:40 AM =======> 2,180.30
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????
From Kiplinger
A political crystal ball. Election results may not be so great at predicting stock market returns, but the converse is not the case. It turns out that the stock market has an uncanny ability to predict who will call the White House home for the next four years. If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party.
The statistics are compelling. In the 22 president elections since 1928, 14 were preceded by gains in the three months prior. In 12 of those 14 instances, the incumbent (or the incumbent party) won the White House. In seven of eight elections preceded by three months of stock market losses, incumbents were sent packing. Exceptions to this correlation occurred in 1956, 1968 and 1980. According to Stack, the S&P 500 has an 86.4% success rate in forecasting the election.
Last edited by mimo_100; 10-24-2016 at 11:14 PM.
Tim - Retired Problem Solver
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Political cartoon: 2 pigs at the starting line, one has the face of Trump, the other, Clinton. Uncle Sam holds the starters gun ...............to his head.
--------------billy
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From Kiplinger
"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."
S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60
current September 9 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,127.81
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????
Last edited by mimo_100; 10-24-2016 at 11:15 PM.
Tim - Retired Problem Solver
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Originally Posted by billyjoe
Political cartoon: 2 pigs at the starting line, one has the face of Trump, the other, Clinton. Uncle Sam holds the starters gun ...............to his head.
--------------billy
Oh such a good image of what this election feels like!
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From Kiplinger
"If the stock market is up in the three months leading up to the election, put your money on the incumbent party. Losses over those three months tend to usher in a new party."
S&P 500 July 29 2016 =======> 2,173.60
September 30 2016 4:00 PM =======> 2,168.27
October 31, 2016 ====> ???????
Last edited by mimo_100; 10-24-2016 at 11:15 PM.
Tim - Retired Problem Solver
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