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I have 35 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default Outsmarting the Market

    They say you can't make money timing the market. This thread will help me figure out if that's true and why. Buy and sell decisions will be based on a short term time frame (a few days or weeks). 15% would be nice but there are no targets here. Technical analysis will be used to place stop losses.

    First trade will be based on what I see in the stock, gold, and silver markets. I'm looking for a sharp rally in the stock market and a pullback in gold/silver. According to my magic charts, the overall indices should hold today's low as well as the 20 day moving average and rally 5-6%. Large caps and technology should lead and I want to be in some individual names. I bought QLD yesterday with this trade in mind, and today I'm looking at AAPL IBM CSCO INTC GOOG SNE as potential buys. AAPL has the largest upside on this rally, while INTC looks it's due for a snapback and this could be a good low. GOOG has a clear technical support at this level so it would be easy to find a tight stop. CSCO has rallied alot and might not have the potential upside in the short term. IBM has been bouncing off this 185 area for months and rallying back up to 210. SNE is my Japanese play if the Nikkei is ready to start it's rally again. SNE should open higher tomorrow so today's low is a reasonable level for a stop. To sum it all up these are the setups:

    AAPL stop 455.00
    IBM stop 186.00
    CSCO stop 25.75
    INTC stop 22.25
    GOOG stop 879.00
    SNE stop 19.8

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default

    Bought GOOG 879.25, INTC 22.449, SNE 20.119 tight stops on all of them.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    534

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by antioch6 View Post
    Bought GOOG 879.25, INTC 22.449, SNE 20.119 tight stops on all of them.
    I bought SNE today at 20.09. I think it has some nice upside potential and it is sitting at a nice support area. Great pick!

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default

    I got stopped out of GOOG and INTC, and decided to sell SNE because of weakness in the overall market indices. With such a tight stop on these stocks, it was very easy to get knocked out in less than a week. Going for large short term gains with a small stop doesn't feel like a good combination. I'll stick with my other strategies and leave this for the genius and the insane.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default

    Time for another crazy short term trade to outsmart the market. Looking back, my idea was decent and my stops were good. The market just decided to breakdown. Maybe this time will be different...

    I'm trying to short the market this week, anticipating a 6-9% move lower over the next 6 weeks. Going after the inverse ETFs with some stop losses. To spread some risk for a rally, I'll enter half my position tomorrow and another half later this week or next.

    SRS 1.3%
    DUG 1.3%
    SKF 1.3%
    SDS 2.6%
    DXD 2.6%
    TWM 2.6%

    My stop loss is around a 3% rally in the S&P.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default

    SRS 23.648
    DUG 62.26
    skf 22.126
    SDS 38.128
    DXD 34.40
    TWM 16.188

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Central Interior BC
    Posts
    740

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by antioch6 View Post
    I'm trying to short the market this week, anticipating a 6-9% move lower over the next 6 weeks.
    What leads you to anticipate a move down?
    It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2013
    Location
    Florida
    Posts
    228

    Default

    I guess it all comes down to a hunch. I don't really have any value metrics and I'm not exactly buying an asset right now. I could be wrong like my last short term trade. I'm getting ready to add another 6% to my SDS position soon trying to catch a large down day this week. I have a technical target for the S&P at 1475-1500 in the next two months.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Central Interior BC
    Posts
    740

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by antioch6 View Post
    I guess it all comes down to a hunch. I don't really have any value metrics and I'm not exactly buying an asset right now. I could be wrong like my last short term trade. I'm getting ready to add another 6% to my SDS position soon trying to catch a large down day this week. I have a technical target for the S&P at 1475-1500 in the next two months.
    Good Luck;

    One thing about a short position is that you are not quite as reluctant to bail if things go against you.
    It is hard to find the Truth when you start your search with a preconceived notion of what the Truth will be.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Columbus, Ohio
    Posts
    199

    Default

    "I guess it all comes down to a hunch..." be careful of "hunches", it's better to have a metrics in which to evaluated stocks.

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