Outsmarting the Market

[billyjoe]

"They say you can't make money timing the market" (antioch6) Vectorvest would say that quote is wrong. They have a system that gives a confirmed up signal, a neutral signal, and a confirmed down signal. They recommend buying only during confirmed up signal periods. They say to hold during neutral signals and sell when market turns to confirmed down signal or hold stocks until a predetermined stop is hit. They backtested this theory over a several year span and claim that it would have returned incredible results. The only thing being an active trader could go crazy waiting 6 months for a signal to turn green (buy).

-------------------billy

[antioch6]

added 5.2% short in SDS at 38.257

[antioch6]

Looks like the drop I am anticipating isn't ready to come yet. I'm planning to sell my inverse ETFs next week if the S&P 500 opens down the first few days, or if they hit my stops with a 2.1% rally in the S&P. This short term outsmarting isn't easy or simple so far.

[Deaddog]

That's the problem with playing hunches.

You should be able to explain why you took a trade. You should have a set of well thought out and back tested rules you use to enter and exit a trade.

Hey it could still work out for you. You haven’t hit your stop yet but wouldn’t it be nice to have a plan in place so that when the market opens next week you know exactly how you are going to react to what the market does.

[antioch6]

Forget to post yesterday I added a little more TWM near the open. Sat with some losses during the day and came back to even at the end. Added another 0.33% bringing my TWM position to about 3%. Still don't think the larger correction I was looking for is coming yet, just a preview and I'll try to cover on some sharp downside this week or early next.

[antioch6]

Bought another 5.2% of SDS at 38.694

[antioch6]

Back home from an appointment. Sold some of my short ETFs to keep things simple. I should stick to S&P Nadaq Dow and Russell ETFs next time. Sold:
DUG 61.36 (paid 62.26)
SRS 23.173 (paid 23.64

[antioch6]

Outsmarting the markets has proven very very tricky. Tomorrow I'm trying to sell my inverse ETFs on a 2-3% move lower in the S&P500/Dow30, and possibly reverse some long to play labor day weekend/end of month. I would also think the markets are a bit oversold at that point and will look to get back into my short inverse ETFs at a higher price.

[Louetta]

Outsmarting the markets has proven very very tricky. Tomorrow I'm trying to sell my inverse ETFs on a 2-3% move lower in the S&P500/Dow30, and possibly reverse some long to play labor day weekend/end of month. I would also think the markets are a bit oversold at that point and will look to get back into my short inverse ETFs at a higher price.

2-3% lower. If Obama bombs Syria you might just get it. Scuttlebutt says he did not do it today lest he sullie the King speech anniversary.

[antioch6]

Louetta I just read through your Wild-assed picks thread. You are Huge.