Stocks for the Long Term

[antioch6]

There are plenty of threads for trading ideas. This can be the thread for anyone trying to hold stocks at least one year, and hopefully longer.

The first stock I'll put up for discussion is INTX

From FinViz.com:

"Intersections Inc. provides consumer identity risk management services in the United States. Its services help consumers understand and monitor their credit profiles and other personal information, and protect themselves against identity theft or fraud. The company operates in three segments: Consumer Products and Services, Online Brand Protection, and Bail Bonds Industry Solutions. The Consumer Products and Services segment offers identity theft protection and credit information management products and services for consumers to access to their credit reports, credit monitoring, educational credit scores, credit education, reports and monitoring of additional information, identity theft recovery, identity theft cost reimbursement insurance, and software and other technology tools and services. This segment also provides data breach response; and accidental death and disability insurance, and property and casualty insurance, as well as access to healthcare, home, auto, financial, and other services and information. The Online Brand Protection segment offers corporate brand and product monitoring services comprising online channel monitoring, auction monitoring, and other services to corporate brand owners or retailers. The Bail Bonds Industry Solutions segment provides automated service solutions for the bail bonds industry. Its services include accounting, reporting, and decision making tools that allow bail bondsmen, general agents, and sureties to run their offices, to exercise operational and financial control over their businesses, and to make underwriting decisions. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Chantilly, Virginia."

There are a few things I like about INTX. It's reasonably priced according to any value metric. The earnings are pretty stable around $1.00 per share for the last three years, with revenues around $360 million. If they continue earning this same amount, the current P/E ratio is a lowly 9 to 10. On top of that, they have a killer dividend of $0.20 a quarter. That's $.80 a year, or roughly 8.5% at current price levels!

After listening to their 2012 Q4/Year End conference call, I like them even more. The management sounds honest and ethical. They clearly want to give back to the shareholders, as evidenced by their spectacular dividend, including the one time special dividend of $.70 last November.

As for their chart, it doesn't look great at first glance. Oddly enough, the stock has kept pace with the S&P 500 for the past 6 months. On a longer time frame, the stock has had buyers step in around $8, and sellers step up around $14.


Today I bought INTX at an average price of $9.59. If you are looking for small gains, look elsewhere. This is a great company behind a great stock, which will net you at least 33% in the next one(1) to three(3) years. That's at the low end. More probably, after that sweet 8% dividend reinvested, and growth in users, I will open my account next year and be faced with a 50% to 100% gain in my INTX shares. Maybe not everyone wants that, I don't know.

Thoughts?

[Deaddog]

I have no long term trades; I have trades that I hold for years but every one of them has a point where I will sell if the criteria I used to buy the stock is not met.

Making the decision to hold a stock is the same as making the decision to buy it.

[antioch6]

INTX is moving slowly but that's fine. My next long term ideas include gold, silver, gold stocks, and silver stocks. I'm sure everyone knows the gold thesis/story by now. With sentiment starting to lean towards "blood in the streets", the time is close for buying shares in this area. I won't go into complete detail about why this is. Here are my list of candidates I want to be buying when that time comes:

PVG (best junior gold miner)
SLW (solid streaming company with consistent earnings and brand name)
RGLD(gold streaming company, for a leveraged type bet on gold)
GDX (basket of larger gold miners)
GDXJ (basket of small, junior miners)
CEF (physical gold and silver fund based in Canada)
IAG (a more speculative gold miner with problems currently. lot's of pain for shareholders, will rebound in a huge way when gold goes back up)
SSRI (smaller silver company with nice potential upside. Silver is going to outperform gold on the next rally)

I've done some respectable research to find this list of names. I expect to buy them in October and make at least 100% on my money.

[Louetta]

Just to make it a horse race I'll say that the unwinding of QE in the US, a multi-year operation, will cause US interest rates to rise. People will buy the US dollar in response to rising rates which will depress the prices of assets priced in US dollars (e.g. gold and silver), Rising rates also make it more expensive to hold hard assets. Thus it is not the time to invest in hard assets.

[antioch6]

Woah! Look at those moves today.

PVG +10.00%
SLW +8.29%
RGLD +9.01%
GDX +8.60%
GDXJ +9.25%
CEF +4.05%
IAG +16.55%
SSRI +14.63%

Something might be afoot in the gold and silver markets. I know my picks are the right ones for the sector, but is now the time to buy? According to my technical analysis hocus pocus voodoo, this stuff has just rallied in a huge way directly into a major Resistance. I would be fine holding if I bought when I first posted, but now it's time to be a little more patient. In the meantime, I went short today via DSLV and DUST with a tight stop just above the 50 day simple moving average for Silver. The long term sentiment is about right, indicating we are time wise near THE bottom (give or take a few months). Now it's a matter of trying to catch a short term move higher so we can analyze without worrying about another 20-25% move lower.

Some prices on my charts that will let me know when this sector has likely bottomed. The more confirmation I get, the more comfortable I'll be buying, even at higher prices.
IAG above 5.50
GG above 30.00
SLW above 24.00
SSRI above 8.00
AUY above 11.00
GDXJ above 45.00
GLD above 130.00
SLV above the 50 day simple moving average

This last rally looked weird and confusing. I feel myself hoping for it to fail, so maybe this time is the real thing. I'd love to buy after another quick mini crash of 20-25%. My hunch tells me if this was the real bottom, tomorrow should be another big rally 4-5% with higher volume than today and a strong close.

[antioch6]

I was stopped out on my shorts while gold/silver continued rallying. I realized that instead of betting/waiting on a crash, or trying to time the breakout, I should just start averaging into my list over the next few months. Channeling my inner Mr. Market, I'll buy pieces every week until I have all my positions by the end of October or middle of November.

[antioch6]

Gold and Silver are rallying in an uptrend and I will average in as planned on pullbacks. My targets are still SLW RGLD IAG SSRI PVG GDX GDXJ CEF

[Louetta]

Gold and Silver are rallying in an uptrend and I will average in as planned on pullbacks. My targets are still SLW RGLD IAG SSRI PVG GDX GDXJ CEF

Interesting. I sold more SLV and 1/2 of my USLV today. Fascinating stuff.

[billyjoe]

antioch,

Here are a few for the long run : V, MA, PM, BRK-B


--------------------billy

[antioch6]

V and MA look like solid companies. I like to buy most long term ideas when they're out of favor though. Right now these two would fit more into my other model.

I'm adding another idea to my long term buys.This was recently in a Mr. Market data dump but it still has huge potential upside. The company is Rite Aid and it's stock is RAD. My brother is an expert and you could say an insider when it comes to pharmacies. He worked at CVS for 6 years, left and opened his own pharmacy for the last 6 years, and recently bought an assisted living facility. He's been afraid to invest in stocks for fear of losing his money, and instead invests and buys directly into businesses he understands. When I explained to him that buying stocks can be looked at the same way, we went over analyzing the companies where he has an expertise. He was shocked to find that stocks aren't just a "put your money and earn 7-8% a year" game.
When we went over RAD and he saw it went from $0.20 to $2.00 and then from $1 to $3, he realized the possibilities. He got super excited after looking at the company financials and news because he said next year there are many changes coming in the industry. The two major changes are Obamacare starting January 1st as well as the major shift from Brand name drugs to Generic drugs. He said the industry will do very well over the next 1-3 years. RAD has the most room for growth and should start seeing higher profit margins and revenue in the coming quarters. He thinks now is the time for change and the time to invest in these companies. RAD should see at least $6 and maybe $9 or even $12 in the not too distant future. This is a turn around company and the market is starting to realize it, but it still has a ways to go. With my brothers blessing, I'm getting ready to buy a good chunk of RAD stock during this next market correction.