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I have 17 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
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    Manhattan, NY
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    18

    Default Ask me for a financial analysis of any stock

    Ask me about a stock, and I'll highlight the good and bad things that I see about the financial statements. I'll point out any fraudulent/borderline accounting if I see it, and highlight things like debt levels, cash flows, etc.

    I'm not here to recommend stocks or tell you whether you should buy or sell stock XXX. This is intended as a introduction to fundamental analysis and accounting and as a way to learn how to read financial statements.

    Financial statements of banks, commodities, energy, biotechs, and pharmaceuticals are out of my circle of competence and I will not be able to properly dissect and explain those statements. I might give it a try if the numbers make sense to me though.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    6,314

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by meteoraln View Post
    Ask me about a stock, and I'll highlight the good and bad things that I see about the financial statements. I'll point out any fraudulent/borderline accounting if I see it, and highlight things like debt levels, cash flows, etc.

    I'm not here to recommend stocks or tell you whether you should buy or sell stock XXX. This is intended as a introduction to fundamental analysis and accounting and as a way to learn how to read financial statements.

    Financial statements of banks, commodities, biotechs, and pharmaceuticals are out of my circle of competence and I will not be able to properly dissect and explain those statements.
    is your analysis based strictly on the fundamentals of a stock.
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    6,314

    Default

    what do you think of NJR and KO?
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
    Posts
    18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by skiracer View Post
    is your analysis based strictly on the fundamentals of a stock.
    That is correct. I will not be giving any opinions / predictions about the current / future prospects of a company. I don't plan on addressing any of its current / future competition, products, growth.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA
    Posts
    3,361

    Default

    OK, here's a fun one. You'll love to see this debacle. Yes, it's bad, but I think it will give us a great opportunity to see your analysis.

    ZANE

    And then, on the opposite side of the fundamental spectrum, check out this one:

    USLM
    Hide not your talents.
    They for use were made.
    What's a sundial in the shade?

    - Benjamin Franklin

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
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    18

    Default Njr

    Quote Originally Posted by skiracer View Post
    what do you think of NJR and KO?
    NJR - I can't do too much for you for this one since it's in energy. I really don't like it's return on assets %, which was 4.4% in 2010. Return on equity is marginal, at 16.6% for 2010. This is also reflected in its shareholder equity, which went from 645m to 725m from 2007 to 2010. Even if we add back the ~200m dividends paid out, 645 to 925 over 4 years is only around 10% return on equity.

    Capital expenditures are taking up around half of its operating cash, which is a bit high for my more conservative criteria. Lower cap ex means more money retained for shareholders as profits. Its 607m total debt and 1.8bn total liabilities are higher than I like to see for its 725m shareholder equity.

    With all that said, NJR looks viable, as in I don't see it being in any financial trouble in the near future. However, with the market historically averaging 8%-12% per year, I don't expect that its intrinsic value can significantly outperform the market, given its low return on assets and equity.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    499

    Default

    How about NYB and HOV two of favorite stocks of this board.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    6,314

    Default

    [QUOTE=meteoraln;111094]NJR - I can't do too much for you for this one since it's in energy. I really don't like it's return on assets %, which was 4.4% in 2010. Return on equity is marginal, at 16.6% for 2010. This is also reflected in its shareholder equity, which went from 645m to 725m from 2007 to 2010. Even if we add back the ~200m dividends paid out, 645 to 925 over 4 years is only around 10% return on equity.

    Capital expenditures are taking up around half of its operating cash, which is a bit high for my more conservative criteria. Lower cap ex means more money retained for shareholders as profits. Its 607m total debt and 1.8bn total liabilities are higher than I like to see for its 725m shareholder equity.

    With all that said, NJR looks viable, as in I don't see it being in any financial trouble in the near future. However, with the market historically averaging 8%-12% per year, I don't expect that its intrinsic value can significantly outperform the market, given its low return on assets and equity.[/QUOTE

    What about the fact that it has practically doubled in the past 1 1/2 - 2 years. But I like your approach to it and your numbers are pretty much on.

    How about KO?[/B]
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    6,314

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by wooish View Post
    How about NYB and HOV two of favorite stocks of this board.
    definitely two of my favorites at the present time. I would like to hear his take on these two. His is an interesting point of view.
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    8,969

    Default

    There is a nice cluster of Hovnanian model homes I drive by every couple weeks. Today I noticed the grass was very unkempt and their fancy sign is no longer there. I haven't heard any news.

    -------------billy

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