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I have 35 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #31
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
    Posts
    18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Deaddog View Post
    Give us a rundown on Mr Markets holdings.
    AAP, AGP, CIB, NTES, PRGO, SRCL, TQNT, TRCR, UNH, VIT.
    AAP - The basic numbers look good. Rising revenue, rising earnings per share, positive cash flow with around 30%-50% of operating cash going to capital expenditures. Debt of 300m is only around half of 2011's op cash flow. The shareholder equity is not really increasing, but this is explained by the fact that AAP spends a large portion of its cash flow towards repurchasing stock. Considering the PE ratio is under 5, this is probably a good use of its excess cash. However, there are still things that I don't like. If you normalize the number of outstanding shares by looking at the ratio of shareholder equity to outstanding shares, we see 1024m/99m = $10.3/share for 2007 and 1039m/82m = $12.67/share in 2011. Over 4 years, this translates into an average increase in shareholder equity of around 5% per year. Even adding back the ~100m paid out in dividends over 4 years, we would be looking at ~7% increase in equity per year. The rate of increase in accounts payable bothers me. It has gone from 688m in 2007 to 1292m in 2011 although revenues have only increased around 20% in the same time period.
    Last edited by meteoraln; 10-23-2011 at 06:09 PM.

  2. #32
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Manhattan, NY
    Posts
    18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Deaddog View Post
    Give us a rundown on Mr Markets holdings.
    AAP, AGP, CIB, NTES, PRGO, SRCL, TQNT, TRCR, UNH, VIT.
    AGP - This one is not easy for me to analyze since it's an insurance company, which is practically finance. When it comes to numbers purely on a yearly basis, this company looked good. It has a pretty "standard" unusual expense from the 2008 year, in which many companies had to write off a loss for any mortgage backed bonds that they might have been holding. It has manageable levels of debt, operating cash, and capital expenditures. The sharp drop in the stock price near 8/1/2011 was hard to ignore, so I looked at the 10-Q, as the drop occurred right after earnings. In their most recent quarter, they've have to pay out more health benefits and their selling/general/admin costs and premium tax have gone up. These contributed to the drop in AGP's income for the quarter. I'm not familiar enough with insurance companies and the special laws they operate under to know if this drop in income is only temporary. I also don't know if this is due to too little revenue coming in.

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