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I have 26 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
    ChrisZXWJ Guest

    Default Earnings Estimates

    Mr Market,

    I'm a bit curious as to how you calculate your earnings estimates. I looked over several of your picks from last year, and not one had produced earnings even remotely close to what you had "predicted".

    Chris

  2. #2
    ChrisZXWJ Guest

    Default

    still wanting for an answer...

  3. #3
    Join Date
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    Default

    AFAIK, those earnings estimates are just the average estimates from the analysts. At least, that is how they are interpreted in my version of MrMarket's screens.

    Regards,

    Karel
    My Investopedia portfolio
    (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

  4. #4
    ChrisZXWJ Guest

    Default

    no no, I mean when Mr Market says that analysts predict some number, but then he predicts another number much higher than what professional analysts had predicted...in his writeups

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
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    Nijmegen, NL
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    Default

    Does this mean I miss the $64.000 question?

    My Investopedia portfolio
    (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

  6. #6

    Default Re: Earnings Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisZXWJ
    Mr Market,

    I'm a bit curious as to how you calculate your earnings estimates. I looked over several of your picks from last year, and not one had produced earnings even remotely close to what you had "predicted".

    Chris
    Why don't you cite them here...projections vs. actuals, and I will comment.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  7. #7
    ChrisZXWJ Guest

    Default Re: Earnings Estimates

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmarket
    Quote Originally Posted by ChrisZXWJ
    Mr Market,

    I'm a bit curious as to how you calculate your earnings estimates. I looked over several of your picks from last year, and not one had produced earnings even remotely close to what you had "predicted".

    Chris
    Why don't you cite them here...projections vs. actuals, and I will comment.
    Ok:

    ARO..."My bet is they’ll hit $1.62 in 2003 and, at today’s PE of 28, would translate into a stock price of 45.36. All of the stars are aligned for the cylinders to be pumping"

    Actual 2003: $1.40

    NARA..."First Call has predicted earnings at $1.18/share this year but $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes earnings will come in at $1.29 per share"

    Actual 2003: $1.24

    WRLD..."$$$MR. MARKET$$$ predicts next year's earnings to come in at $1.53 (First Call estimates $1.47)."

    Actual 2003: $1.49

    GRMN..."Call analysts see earnings this year rising 12% to $1.48. It will probably be closer to $1.70/share and at today’s P/E of 31, that computes to a stock price of $52.70, my target.

    Actual 2003: $1.64

    There's a little bit of proof for you. I'd be happy to give further proof if you'd like to provide your old writeups. So, now, how about an explanation?

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Step up to the plate. This cat want answers. I'm sure you have a solid answer. Now this could be a learning lesson for all of us to see just how sharp Earnie pencile realy is and a good leson on book keeping. let the discussion begain. billjoe are you ready for the commentary. NOW Lets touch GLOVES and have a clean debate. The Lee Way should be maybe at least nickel considering the market that we are in. ===> MEA
    GO BIG RED!!!!!

  9. #9
    Join Date
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    Default

    Frankly, I am not very much troubled by this kind of discrepancies. I was expecting something very much more shocking ("not even remotely close"). And earnings prediction gives estimates, not surefire results. But it would be nice to see why $$$MrMarket$$$ differed from the analysts. He certainly doesn't seem to do worse.

    Regards,

    Karel
    My Investopedia portfolio
    (You need to have a (free) Investopedia or Facebook login, sorry!)

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
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    Default Interesting Question!

    Here are all of the other earnings predictions made by $$MM which are posted here so far. (I may have missed one or two, so let me know if there are others)

    DECK – 5/3/04

    Deckers raised its $153 million to $162 million 2004 sales guidance to $166 million to $174 million, and upped the $1.25 to $1.35 earnings per share to $1.42 to $1.51. It expects the Ugg line to contribute $75 million in sales this year. ANAL-lysts have it right down the middle at $1.47/share. People people puh-leeeze!! My sides are splitting laughing at these sandbag estimates. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees 2004 revenues coming in at $184 million. This will translate into earnings per share of $1.59/share. At today’s P/E of 34.7, that propels the share price to $55.17, which is well past my target sell price.


    AACE – 3/5/04
    ANALysts expect AACE to make $1.54/share in fiscal 2004. Don’t make me laugh! My stomach is killing me from laughing so much. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees AACE baby making $1.67 for fiscal 2004 on revenues of $257 million. At today’s PE of 22, this takes the share price to $36.81, right about where I will be selling it. Shoot..I did it again! Remember, these guys have blasted…BLASTED!...earnings estimates quarter after quarter after quarter. Now that AACE has provided earnings guidance to Wall Street, you think they intend on missing their numbers?? Don’t make me LAUGH

    WSB – 9/26/03
    Last year, WSB made $0.67/share. This year, they'll probably end up
    around $1.00/share. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks that in this interest
    rate environment, WSB will start banging out $0.35/quarter so next
    year they'll do $1.42. If they hold their P/E at 11.33, that means
    the stock will go to $16.09 which is well past my target price.

    OFG – 4/5/04
    ANALysts project that OFG will record fiscal year 2004 earnings of $2.73/share. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ is laughing so very hard into his tropical drink. The last time I was in Puerto Rico, I took all of the quatloops from the casino. Regardless, OFG will actually earn $2.84/share to close out the fiscal year. Even at the ridiculously low P/E of 13.4, this gets you to a share price of $38.06 which is well past my sell target. Even better, even those timid ANALysts peg the 2005 earnings at $3.07/share which would equal a share price of $41.14 at the same valuation multiple. If you use the more appropriate earnings multiple of 15.5 which R&G Financial Corp carries, you end up with a share price of $47.59. Now we’re talking hot salsa!

    SAFM – 2/17/04
    SAFM has paid down their debt so that it is a meager 9% of total capitalization. Return on Assets is an amazing 18.7% (vs. industry average 3.7%) while Return on Equity is 30.6% vs. industry average 9.3%. The time has come for all good men to consume chicken. Last year, SAFM made $4.12/share. 2004 will be the year of the chicken, and SAFM will nail $5.15/share as they crack $1 billion in chicken sales. Even at its humble P/E of 14, these earnings will scratch its share price to $72.10/share. There’s only one ANALyst following this stock, so ANALyst coverage is essentially meaningless.


    SPF – 4/14/04

    SPF report’s 1Q numbers on April 28, 2004. They will obliterate the $0.90 number. Last week, Standard Pacific Corp announced preliminary new home orders for the three-month period ended March 31, 2004, the highest for any first quarter in the Company's history. New home orders for the Company's 2004 first quarter continue to be strong in the Company's three largest markets. In Southern California, orders were up 5% year-over. In Northern California, new home orders were up 125% on a 63% increase in active selling communities, reflecting stronger housing market conditions in the Bay area compared to last year. In Florida, orders were up 28% In Arizona, for the first quarter, orders were up 13% year-over-year despite a 5% decline in the number of active selling communities..
    Let’s take SPF’s 2004 guidance of $7.00/share, which they always beat, and which is even lower than the ANALysts guidance of $7.25/share. If you take $7.00 and multiply it by the ridiculously low P/E of 9.3, you get a share price of $65.10, which is well past my sell target. I love making money on safe stocks. (By the way, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ predicts 2004 earnings of $7.53/share.) Geez, SPF only trades at 1.76 times its book value. SPF also pays a dividend. Return on Assets is 9.6%, Return on Equity is 22.6%. This is a well run company, no doubt.

    PDX – 3/30/04

    PDX has at least eight straight quarters of 26%-or-better earnings growth. Revenues have grown each and every year for the last 9 years. Over the last 5 years, sales growth has been 40% per year. ANALysts claim that PDX will bank $4.06/share in 2004. PDX always seems to beat their numbers. The company has already advised that they see $4.10 per share on the high end. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees PDX getting to $4.47/share in 2004 which would translate to a stock price of $78.67 which is well past my sell target.

    HAR – 1/14/04

    Analysts estimate that revenues will climb from $2.2 B in 2003 to $2.6 B in 2004. Indeed, HAR has grown their revenues sequentially each year for the past 4 years. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that there has been a suppression of high end spending over the last couple of years and, based on the high end Xmas sales, I think we’ll see much more spending on fancy stuff. Give HAR $2.8 B in revenues for 2004.
    With the new gadgets coming out, margins for HAR products will widen significantly. This means that their revenue growth will lead to even greater acceleration of earnings. Last year, HAR did $1.58/share. ANALysts say that HAR will make $2.07/share in 2004. Don’t make me laugh. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ says that the additional $200 million in revenue will translate into total 2004 earnings of $2.44/share. At today’s PE of 45, that gives you a share price of $109.80 which is well past my target. Given the 25% growth expected for HAR, this PE, and resulting stock price, is not unreasonable. Remember that the overall market is expected to be very strong. Also, as the Euro gets stronger against the dollar, HAR’s products become much more affordable.

    HZO – 3/11/04

    The numbers certainly support this. Sales are up 20% in the last two years and earnings are up 25%. MarineMax’s sandbag numbers are between $1.38 and $1.45/share for 2004. ANALysts project sales to be $1.55/share for 2004 on revenues of $740 million (of which $290 million) comes from acquisitions. But these numbers are preposterously low. HZO has sandbagged every quarter since the beginning of time and the ANALysts are completely clueless. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects $750 million in sales which will generate $1.79/share. Even at today’s very modest PE multiple of 19, these earnings would propel the stock to a price of $34.01, which is well past my sell target.


    SSNC – 2/12/04

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ expects this awesome value added service to customers to continue. I almost pissed my pants when I saw that ANALysts have pegged SSNC to net $1.10/share for 2004. Baa haa haa! Are you KIDDING ME??? $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees 2004 revenues at $80 million and this will allow them to pocket $1.35/share. At today’s P/E of 49, this translates to a stock price of $66.15, which is well past my sell target.

    BEL – 1/2/04

    Currently the Company is in possession of approximately $260 M Cdn ($195M US) of contracts that are expected to ship into their facilities by the end of 2005. As announced on October 23, 2003, the Company's third quarter 2003 revenues were at record levels of $22.4M Cdn ($16.2M US), more than double the revenues from the same quarter in the prior year. The Company expects to meet full year analyst consensus targets for earnings of $1.14 Cdn or $0.80 US per share, which represents more than a 50% increase from last year. As the US Dollar drops in comparison to the Canadian dollar, owning this company makes more and more sense for US shareholders. BEL processed 23,000 tonnes of soil last quarter, so I guess good rule of thumb is that BEL’s revenue is $1,000/ton of soil processed. Wait til the new plant is running (another 100,000 tonnes)…woo hoo! The company's current purchase orders and backlogs should keep its current and planned second facility operating at near full capacity for the next few years.
    This makes the math pretty easy. BEL will make $1.15 per share for 2003 and will pump it up to $2.40/share in 2004 with the increased revenues from the new plant. At the existing PE of 25.8 this propels the stock price range from $17.57 to $43.45 in 2004. These numbers are easily past my modest sell target. These earnings are backed by $$$MR. MARKET$$$’s 2004 revenue projections of 150,000 tonnes times $1,000 per tonne = $150,000,000 Cdn.

    ASCA – 2/10/04

    Look at the revenue growth!! In 2001, they did 627 million. In 2002, they did 698 million and last year they did 782 million! That 13% growth over the last couple of years is kicking the crap out of the palaces in Vegas. Income is surging with it as they done about 20% growth in net EPS over the last couple of years. With the growing economy continuing unabated, $$MR. MARKET$$$ sees this growth continuing. My prediction is $881 million in revenues for 2004 which would get them profits of $2.07/share. Try applying the industry average PE of 33 to these earnings. You get a stock price of $68.31. Now we’re talking!! The 11 analysts covering ASCA think it will earn $1.97/share. These nerds just don’t understand the inescapable grip of gambling. Just ask Fred Flinstone and Arnold the Paperboy. Bet bet bet ba ba bet bet BET!!!

    IPAR – 2/24/04

    Analysts polled by First Call expect the company's 2004 profit to move up to $0.78/share but $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes that the enhanced sales will translate to $0.84/share. Is IPAR overvalued? Of course it is. But I don’t care…if it can sustain this PE for a few more months, I’ll easily hit my sell target. This is momentum investing at its finest…and certainly not for the fainthearted. In the meantime, IPAR churns out a respectable ROE of 13%.

    CFC – 12/4/03

    Management also believes earnings per diluted share for 2004 will range from $12 to $16. Key assumptions in the 2004 forecast are as follows:
    • Ten-year Treasury rates of 4 to 6 percent.
    • Origination market of $1.4 to $2.4 trillion.
    • Countrywide origination market share of 13 to 15 percent, implying Company origination volume of $182 to $360 billion.
    These are all reasonable economic assumptions. Furthermore, October was still a red hot month for new home sales. CFC is going to blow away 4Q earnings estimates of $3.80/share. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees them carding $5.60/share to make 2003 earnings a whopping $18.48/share. Wall Street will have a hard time keeping their P/E below 7, especially if the homebuilders continue to smash their numbers. 7 x 18.48 is a stock price of 129.36/share which is well past my target. Even if CFC only does the low end of their estimates, a PE of 10 sends their stock price to 120. Don’t forget they can also raise their dividend with all of the cash that comes piling in.

    CBK – 10/20/03

    CBK has been able to remain highly profitable in a difficult retail environment. Their store expansion and market penetration will enable them to capitalize on any improvement in economic conditions. They should be able to hit $400 million in revenues which will allow them to bank $1.30/share of profit. At today’s PE of 28, this puts the stock price at $36.40 which is well past my sell target.



    DHI – 11/10/03

    D.R. Horton's net sales orders jumped 21% to $2.41 billion in the fiscal third quarter ended Sept. 30, as orders rose 17% to 10,114 homes. ANALysts expect D.R. Horton to post a 41% profit rise to $1.30 a share in the fiscal fourth quarter. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows that they will do $1.41 a share next quarter.
    ANALysts are projecting $4.33/share in 2004. Even with the paltry P/E of 11.26, this projects to a stock price of $48.76. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects 2004 earnings of $5.22 which will get the stock price to $58.88. These gains will be driven by a 10% increase in home closings, and a modest rise in average selling prices. In reality, the P/E will most likely expand as these homebuilders post quarter after quarter of magnificent earnings. Indeed, buyer-friendly mortgage rates will remain through 2006, so valuations for most major builders will expand to low double-digit forward price/earnings ratios.


    HELE – 9/3/03

    Earnings are growing and Wall Street is lapping it up. Chances are, you have HELE stuff in your house right now. HELE also raised its profit projections for the full year to a range of $1.75 to $1.80 a share, up from an earlier forecast of $1.45 to $1.50, and announced a generous stock buy back program.
    HELE always beats their numbers and should have no problem blasting the $1.80 per share number they most recently through out there. If they hit $1.95, as $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes they will, this should catapult HELE stock to $27.30/share, using the P/E multiple of 14 they presently carry.

    CCBI – 11/5/03

    Analysts are typically positive on companies willing to
    give back to its shareholders and CCBI is no exception. Several top
    All Star analysts are recommending this California financial
    institution to long-term investors. The 3 analysts covering CCBI have it rated between a strong buy and a buy. They project 2004 earnings to be $1.34/share. At today’s PE of 24 that would propel the stock price to 34 which is well past my sell target.
    Look at 2003 revenue. It’s likely it will be up almost 60% over 2002 (from 46 million to 73 million). This is phenomenal growth and earnings are growing along nicely with it. The Company's net income for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2003 was $14.3 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, an increase of 120% and 38%, respectively, from $6.5 million and $0.45 per diluted share, for the nine-month period ended September 30, 2002.

    KSWS – 12/18/03

    Net earnings and net earnings per diluted share for the third quarter of 2003 increased 84.8% and 90.5%, respectively, to $15,106,000, or $0.80 per diluted share, compared with $8,173,000, or $0.42 per diluted share, in the prior-year period. Net earnings and net earnings per diluted share for the nine months ended September 30, 2003, increased 73.0% and 80.2%, respectively, to $41,369,000, or $2.18 per diluted share, compared with $23,909,000, or $1.21 per diluted share, at September 30, 2002.
    Analysts polled by First Call predict earnings for all 2004 will rise to $3.14 a share. It’s obvious that KSWS is going to smoke these numbers but even at today’s P/E of 20, the analysts call translates to a share price of $62.80 which exceeds my sell price. Indeed, it’s intrinsic value is about $78/share right now!
    The company has invested heavily on product development and advertising over the last three years. Last April, it launched an ad campaign focused on the Classic line and highlighting the K-Swiss brand. KSWS says its Classic series of leather tennis shoes (66% of 2002 K-Swiss brand footwear revenues), little changed from its original design, has become popular as a casual shoe for men and women, while continuing to sell well as a tennis shoe. In recent years, manufacturing was shifted offshore to independent suppliers, primarily in China. In 2002, about 98% of the company's footwear products were manufactured in China, and 2% in Taiwan.
    In July, KSWS forecast 2003 third quarter revenues of $100 million to $108 million, with EPS of $0.43 to $0.50. They surely made a mockery of this guidance. In fact, KSWS loves to beat their projections. It raised its guidance for the full year to revenues of about $395 million to $405 million, with EPS of $2.20 to $2.30. The company noted that it posted strong increases in both third and fourth quarter backlog. These sales growth projections are phenomenal, and for the short term, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes this growth will continue, unabated.

    PRX – 11/26/03

    With all this new business, you’re looking at a jump to about $3.97/share of earnings in 2004. With the existing PE, this would propel the stock price to $107.19/share which is well past my target. Of course you don’t have to wait until 2004 to reap these rewards. Once the market realized the gravy train is here, the stock price will be bid up well before earnings materialize.

    AXL – 5/20/02

    If this guy is pleased with beating the street, you can bet for sure that his ego won’t allow him to falter in the next quarter. There is nothing in the economy that would indicate that they will miss. In the last 4 quarters, they have surprised by an average upside of 10%. This means that the analyst number of $2.87/share will probably end up being $3.16 in 2002. If you multiply $3.16 times their present P/E of 13.34, you get a share price of $42.15. Well past my sell target. This is why I am so HUGE!!

    WSBK – 11/26/03

    Yes it all boils down to earnings doesn’t it? Whether you are a butcher, baker or candlestick maker, you need that do-re-mi to get the hot chicks (or you need 19” biceps, but I digress). Analysts have WSBK pegged at $1.75/share for 2003 and $1.95/share for 2004. WSBK’s earnings have grown at a rate of 30% over the last few years. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks that WSBK will come in at $1.78 for 2003 and $2.30 for 2004. At today’s PE of 19.0, this means the stock will climb to 44.39 by next year, well past my sell target. You’re getting almost 30% earnings growth for a P/E of less than 20!! $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows a deal when he sees one.

    CLSR – 10/31/03

    All of this stuff sounds great in theory but will the customer buy it? They sure will. Sales have been growing by 25% per year for the last 4 years. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believe sales will pass $35 million for 2003 which should get earnings of $0.55 share. Even the wimps at First Call think CLSR will make $0.65 in 2004. This modest prediction will get the stock price to 38.

    URBN – 11/18/03

    Revenues have grown at a rate of 25% per year for the last 5 years. This is not a carnival, URBN is here to stay. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ expects them to do 160 million next quarter which should translate to quarterly earnings of $0.42/share. At the high P/E this specialty retailer commands, that would yield a stock price of $43.09, which exceeds my sell target. Don’t get excited yet…..$$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks FY 2005 should generate earnings of $1.60/share which will propel the stock price to $59.20/share.

    FINL – 9/29/03

    Here’s what the boss said: Mr. Cohen stated, "We are pleased to report a 93% increase in earnings for the second quarter of Fiscal 2004. The 21% gain in Q2 comparable store sales drove significant improvement in our financial performance as gross profit margin improved 220 basis points from Q2 LY, while SG&A expense also improved 180 basis points. Our strong sales performance in Q2 has continued through the first three weeks of September, and our inventory is positioned to support our anticipated sales growth in the third quarter." First Call expects earnings to grow from $1.58/share in 2004 to $1.83/share in 2005. With 21% increases in same store sales in Q2, there’s no question they will make these numbers. Historically, FINL has been right on with their numbers and this projected growth will really move its stock price.

    JBSS – 10/24/03

    Sales growth has really taken off for these guys. I expect them to do $500 million in sales in 2004 which will give them annual earnings of $2.59/share. Even with their super low PE of 13.1, this translates to a stock price of 33.93 which surpasses my target sale price.
    JBSS has been aggressively paying down debt. In fact, its debt is less than half of what it was 5 years ago while it has expanded its asset base. % Long Term Debt of Capitalization has shrunk from nearly 50% to around 19%. This has helped its return on assets grow to 7% and its Return on Equity move up to 13.6%. This compares to an industry ROE of only 7%.

    GRMN – 5/23/03

    Meanwhile, sales and earnings continue to rise. The company posted 2002 revenue of $465 million, up 26% from the prior year. Total revenue has doubled in only 3 years. Profit grew 36% to $1.32 a share. First Call analysts see earnings this year rising 12% to $1.48. It will probably be closer to $1.70/share and at today’s P/E of 31, that computes to a stock price of $52.70, my target. Baked into these earnings is a growing depreciation number of about $0.10 which is effectively free cash flow for GRMN.

    WLS – 10/16/03

    Consistent with this revenue growth, WLC has seen its earnings grow and grow. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ projects 2003 earnings to be $6.91/share. At today’s P/E of 9.66, this projects to a share price of $66.75, which exceeds my target. Most likely, once we see confirmation of 3Q earnings, the street will allow the P/E of WLS, and other homeowners to expand, and its stock will hit my target that much faster. The industry average P/E is already 14.

    WRLD – 6/3/03

    Revenues have grown at a steady eddy 15% clip for the last 3 years
    while earnings have grown similarly at a rate of 23% per year. This
    is great fuel for a momentum play. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ predicts next
    year's earnings to come in at $1.53 (First Call estimates $1.47).
    Even at the paltry P/E of 11.30 that Wall Street offers to WRLD
    shareholders, this would put the stock price at a handsome
    $17.29/share which is well past my target.

    NARA – 7/25/03

    First Call has predicted earnings at $1.18/share this year but $$$MR.
    MARKET$$$ believes earnings will come in at $1.29 per share. For
    2004, they should do $1.60 per share which would propel the stock
    price to $26.56/share, at today's valuation, which is well past my
    sell target.

    AMHC – 7/14/03

    First Call has AMHC making $1.09/share in 2003 (one more quarter left) and $1.30 in 2004 but $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees the HUGE upside in customer growth leading to a $1.50/share in fiscal 2004 which would propel the stock price to $57.00/share using the same valuation criteria.

    ARO – 10/3/03

    ANALysts say ARO will make $0.50 this quarter (reporting November 21, 2003). They are smoking crack. With revenues in excess of 200 million, they will easily make $0.70 and Christmas will be out of this world. Remember, last winter was really bad weather in the Northeast, where ARO mostly operates. Their year over year numbers will be HUGE!
    My bet is they’ll hit $1.62 in 2003 and, at today’s PE of 28, would translate into a stock price of 45.36. All of the stars are aligned for the cylinders to be pumping. Overall economy is better, same store sales are growing enormously and they are adding new stores.

    COH – 6/9/03

    First Call puts COH at $1.55/share for FY 03. $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    thinks they'll easily do $1.74. which at the existing P/E, will take
    the stock price to $62.64, well past my sell target. The positive
    surprises aren't a first for Coach, having beaten consensus estimates
    10 out of 11 quarters since going public in late 2000, according to
    earnings tracker First Call.

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