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I have 25 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #21
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    Thanks, Tim. Good info. I’m not sure we are headed into a recession just yet, but I agree wholeheartedly that we are way overdue for one and the long term bear market that will come with it. I also agree that we have prolonged the bull market with monetary policy manipulations. At the rate the government is adding debt, it’s a good thing interest rate have stayed low. Nevertheless, because of the magnitude of our overspending, the cost of servicing our debt is rapidly rising as a percentage of our budget. Where have all the fiscal conservatives gone? I could count them on one hand if I were missing fingers.

    In any event, I’m still sweating it. I made a bet here, but I’m not entirely convinced that the market doesn’t have more upside to it before we enter a bear market. The action is ambivalent. After that wide ranging red bar on Friday, we failed to get any bearish follow through today, instead opening with a gap up. The bulls and bears at currently at war over the near term fate of the market. Every attempt at a rally is beaten back down, but every attempt to start a hardcore cascade to the downside is being met with some buying. I’m still in wait and see mode.

  2. #22
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    There are still lots of mixed signals from the market itself, but the following is an indicator that makes stocks a little more attractive for the long term.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/the-...an-stocks.html

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post
    There are still lots of mixed signals from the market itself, but the following is an indicator that makes stocks a little more attractive for the long term.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/27/the-...an-stocks.html
    Good article, BlueWolf. I listen to Buffett a lot and he always says when rates are lower stocks are a better buy.

    The rate at which rates have fallen troubleth me. According to the treasury site the 30-yr started the month at 2.44% and right now it is quoted overseas at 1.94. Where will it be in another month and will this spark fears of recession, deflation, negative rates, or Bernie's election. I'm staying at 30% cash and about 1/3 of the rest is in preferreds which are more like bonds than stocks for the duration. Still fear a swoon in September/early October just because that often happens.

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield

  4. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    ... The rate at which rates have fallen troubleth me ...
    You ain’t kidding. Wow!

  5. #25
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    Default Market sentiment for the week ending September 6, 2019

    Market sentiment for the week ending September 6, 2019.

    Short Term Bias:Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar so I have not included separate charts for these indices.

    There has been a major change in my sentiment this week and I have gone from being extremely bearish to being neutral for both the short and long term. The current mess in the major indices has started to coalesce and now it is clear that we are in some sort of sideways consolidation. In this particular case, this pattern looks a lot like a symmetrical triangle. You could make the case that there is a slight ascension to it, but to me, it looks symmetrical, which underscores the current indecision on the market. There is a battle royale going on between the bulls and bears, and it is unclear who will prevail. If the indices break out got the high side of the triangle, I would expect the indices to make new highs. Conversely, a break down from the triangle would probably lead to a test of the prior pivot low from the May/June correction. Holding or breaking that pivot could portend whether the longer term bullishness of the market will continue or whether we are witnessing the beginning of a long term bear market. I guess the operative phrase here for me is “wait and see,” and that’s exactly what I will be doing over at least the next week.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/xf211o3a81...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    I didn’t FIND much of anything to watch going into this week. Here are a few I might keep an eye one, though:
    Longs: MRNA, AYX
    Shorts: ADVM, AMED, CHGG

    Good luck with your trading and investing.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 09-01-2019 at 03:53 PM. Reason: Added title

  6. #26
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    Midweek update for week ending September 6, 2019.

    Just wanted to clarify an oversight on my part. In my haste to post, I didn’t really look closely at the S&P and Dow when I did my weekly update. There are definitely some divergences between the indices. I will just wait to see how the week plays out, and then discuss this in next week’s update, but the Dow and S&P definitely started the week more bullish than the NASDAQ. I will post a more detailed mid week update should something dramatic happen. More to come ...

  7. #27
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    Midweek Update #2 for the week ending September 6, 2019

    I won’t get into it in any detail since it’s almost the end of the week, but the question of direction seems to have been settled with a breakout to the upside today. Obviously, the China trade news was the catalyst. As a result of all this, I opened several positions today. More on all of this at next weeks update (Sorry, but I just won’t have much free time until Sunday).

  8. #28
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    Default Market sentiment for the week ending September 13, 2019

    Market sentiment for the week ending September 13, 2019

    Short Term Bias:Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, S&P, and Dow.

    Well the indices broke out of their consolidation patterns to the upside this week. Interestingly, the DOW technically broke out on Monday, three days earlier than the S&P and NASDAQ. It retreated a little on Tuesday, but quickly jumped back up on Wednesday and joined the other indices on Thursday for the big move up. In the annotated charts, I have highlighted the divergences that have occurred in the indices over the last week or so. Whatever the case, for the time being I am back in the bulls camp and have a short term bullish bias. As for the long term, I believe the indices will make new highs, and I want to be bullish, but I need a little more confirmation that the long term bullish trend we have been riding is still intact. I therefore go into the week with a neutral long term bias. Despite my reservations, I did start opening positions this week, and I’m now about 1/3 invested in the market.

    In case you’re interested, here are the stocks in which I opened positions this week:

    AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, ANET, EDIT, LYV, NVDA, PANW, TDOC, TREX, and TTWO.

    I’m still a believer in all of the stocks I wrote about in the “Stocks for the Long Term” thread, but for some of these I am waiting for good entries and a little more confirmation from the market before I dive back in completely. Among the stocks I am looking to re-enter are:

    AAPN, AYX, BRK/B (maybe), CGNX (maybe), DOCU (I kick myself for getting out of this one), FB, GH, IIPR, ISRG, MA, MDB, MELI, MTCH, OKTA, ROKU, RVLV (maybe), SFIX, SHOP (a favorite of mine), TEAM, TREX, TTD (another favorite), TWLO, VEEV, ZEN, ZM, and ZS

    Do you want me to post my entries and track my portfolio? If it helps anyone, I’ll be glad to do it. I did it for my last round of additions back in December. Let me know.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/5ivom57e5o...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/e38mhblh3d...%20AM.jpg?dl=0


    Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/r78faptmxt...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    In addition to the stocks I listed about for which I am looking for long term entries, I have a few stocks I will be watching for day and swing trades to start the week as follows:
    Longs: AXL, SNAP
    Shorts: CDMO, CHGG (This was an excellent short last week)

    Good luck with your trading and investing.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 09-08-2019 at 07:08 PM. Reason: Added Title

  9. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post


    ...snip...


    Do you want me to post my entries and track my portfolio? If it helps anyone, I’ll be glad to do it. I did it for my last round of additions back in December. Let me know.

    ...snip...

    I'd be more interested in learning what stocks you have added to your list of interesting issues. E.g. among your list of buys I don't recall seeing ABMD, PANW, TREX and TTWO before. But you already put a lot of effort into this so it's hard to ask for more.

    Separately, the following article talks about BRK/B being near the low end of it's book value per share range which in theory makes it a good buy. I recall Buffett talking about this being an approach of interest though I don't remember any numbers and he wasn't making a recommendation (this was last April at the annual meeting).

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/428...enbuffettwatch

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    ... among your list of buys I don't recall seeing ABMD, PANW, TREX and TTWO before. ...
    Several of the stocks on my December list were stocks in which I already had a position, but to which I was adding. Since they were on my buy list at the time, I wrote them up. On this new list, there are several stocks that I owned prior to posting my December list to which I did not add. That’s why they didn’t get written up.

    I will be happy to do write-ups on the new ones, specifically ABMD, PANW, TREX, and TTWO. A couple of cautionary notes on biotech/pharma stocks. They can be unusually volatile, making huge jumps in a single day. I also go into many of them knowing I will need a lot of patience, i.e. EDIT and CRSP. BTW, I forgot to add CRSP to my list. I am very interested in that stock.

    Good thing I held off on entering the other stocks on my new list. A number of them are going through sell offs right now. With a little patience, I should be able to get some great entries.

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