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  1. #111
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending May 15, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending May 15, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the S&P. I have not included a chart for the Dow as it is similar to the S&P.

    The key words for this week are “oops” followed by “divergence.” My fear that the divergence between the NASDAQ and S&P/Dow combined with last Friday’s bearish bars signaled a market rollover were completed unfounded, hence the “oops.” The market, particularly the NASDAQ, repudiated me by heading up immediately and sustaining its upward motion over the entire week. Still, the divergence between the NASDAQ and the other indices persisted this week, and, in fact, became even more pronounced. While the NASDAQ resumed its march upward with some force, creating a higher pivot low and a higher pivot high in the process, the S&P/Dow languished, climbing more slowly and failing to have enough impetus for a taking their prior pivot highs. All I can do now is trade with the market as it manifests itself, cautiously ready to reverse direction if needed. For this reason, both my long and short term bias is neutral.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/l1pp9va1d8...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/dl4lbduhn1...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Longs: CSGP, FIVN, GM, OLLI, PING, ROKU, RVLV
    Shorts: FLT, HRC, LMNX

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 05-09-2020 at 10:30 PM. Reason: Added Title

  2. #112
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the S&P. I have not included a chart for the Dow as it is similar to the S&P.

    My biggest takeaway from last week is once again “divergence.” This divergence, between the NASDAQ and the S&P/Dow, has become so pronounced that the NASDAQ is still in an uptrend whereas the S&P and Dow are both technically in a downtrend. Eventually, this divergence will go away and the indices will resolve into a common pattern. Which pattern? I don’t know for sure, but my educated guess is that the indices will resolve to the downside. I just see a lot of bearishness, even in the NASDAQ. If you look at the NASDAQ with respect to its uptrend regression channel you can clearly see that the index is fading. The last two pivot highs have failed to challenge the upper boundary of the channel. Moreover, the last three bars of the NASDAQ daily chart are also indicating some weakness. The first of these bars headed down soon after the open and closed near the lower boundary of the regression channel. The next two bars opened with gaps down and ended up straddling the lower boundary. On the other hand, each bar had a bottoming tail, although the tail on the last bar was pretty small, and the last two bars moved higher off their bottoms to close near the high of the day (HOD). This indicates that there are still some bulls out there, buying into weakness. Unfortunately, this buying has not been strong enough to push the index back up and fully inside of the regression channel. The bottom line is that I remain neutral in both my short and long term bias. I would be bearish, but I need some confirmation. It is entirely possible that the S&P and DOW, even though they are technically in downtrends by the smallest of margins (lower pivots highs, lower pivot lows), could base sideways for a while and then breakout to the upside, joining the NASDAQ in an uptrend. That’s not my expectation, but I don’t have enough data yet to rule out this scenario so I remain neutral.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/p56a8mgwbt...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/2ndmjydbdq...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    The funny thing is, despite my bearish inclinations, I found far more bullish setups than I did nice shorts. For what it’s worth, here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Longs: AYX, CRM, FTNT, MTCH, NTNX, NVDA, OLLI, PANW, PYPL
    Shorts: AAXN, ROKU

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 05-17-2020 at 11:22 AM. Reason: Added title

  3. #113
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    Exclamation

    Market sentiment for week ending May 22, 2020 (**Midweek Update**)

    Short Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have been watching the market closely since the start of the week and I am seeing lots of bull sign all over the place. I am on the border of being convinced that the DOW and S&P will breakout to the upside and join the NASDAQ in uptrend. In particular, I am seeing a ton of stocks with basing-at-the-high patterns. This is a very bullish pattern that, more often than not, portends another leg up to come. Examples, if you care to look, include: ABMD, ATVI, CRWD, DDOG, EVBG, FIVN, GH, LVGO, MASI, PYPL (starting to breakout), QDEL, QTWO, REGN, SHOP, WIX, ZS. FB is an example of a stock that broke out to upside from its basing-at-the-high pattern. I am also seeing quite a few other bullish patterns including cups and handles, bull flags and bull pennants. All of this had me feeling a little bullish, at least for the short term, and so I find myself building a few positions again. I’m certainly not going all in, however, and I’m still sitting in about 70% cash right now. I was as high as 85% at one recent point.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 05-20-2020 at 11:33 AM.

  4. #114
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending May 29, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending May 29, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and for the Dow. I have not included a chart for the S&P as it is similar to the Dow.

    The divergence between the NASDAQ and the Dow/S&P continues, but has become a little clearer now. While the NASDAQ remains in an uptrend, this uptrend has morphed into a regression channel with a much shallower slope than had existed in late March and early April. An uptrend is an uptrend, however, and the NASDAQ continues to make higher pivot highs and higher pivot lows. In contrast, the DOW and S&P have taken a pause, moving sideways while they consolidate their late March and early April gains. Since this consolidation is happening at the high off the March 23 bottom, there is a reasonable chance that the Dow and S&P will break out to the upside of this consolidation channel. For that reason, my near term bias remains bullish, and I am cautiously buying a few stocks here and there. On the other hand, should the indices linger too long in this consolidation pattern, the chances that they will break out to the downside will increase. For this reason, and because of my concerns over the change of the NASDAQ uptrend to a shallower slope, my long term bias remains neutral. I also have a certain amount of trepidation from fears that the economic impacts of COVID-19 will eventually catch up with the market. Still, I have to trade based on what the market is actually doing, and, for now, the indications are little bullish. I am therefore holding onto and lightly adding to my positions.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/j9kg085d98...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/80wc91l47k...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I found a number of bullish momentum plays in my scans this week, which, given the bullish indications in the market, are playable. I also found a few shorts that I like, including GDS, which looks like it is perched on a cliff. I will just watch and see what triggers. Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week (Addendum: Had to remove AAXN, GRC, & HRC from short watch list as they are all Hard-to-Borrow (HB) at my broker - Bummer!):
    Longs: BKNG, ETSY, IIPR, INSP, NET, PING, RVLV, SDGR, ZS
    Shorts: -None-

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 05-25-2020 at 10:19 PM. Reason: Removed AAXN, GRC, & HRC from short Watchlist

  5. #115
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending June 5, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending June 5, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Bullish

    I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ, S&P and Dow.

    All three indices have turned bullish, although each has arrived there in a different way. The NASDAQ remains the most bullish of the three indices as it is staying well within the bounds of its clearly defined uptrend channel. The S&P has sort of morphed into an uptrend, although there are some aberrations in this trend as noted in the chart. The Dow is the least bullish of the three indices, but it did end up breaking out to the upside from its sideways consolidation channel, and it looks like it is establishing itself in a new uptrend. All three indices ended up higher for the week with indications that they will continue to move higher. For this reason my short term bias remains bullish and my long term bias has now changed to bullish. Unless something rocks the market, it looks like I will be doing a lot of long-side trading for now.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/2wh8h98pde...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the S&P:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/qccafc5812...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4inbgbqrn...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I have quite a few setups to start the week. It’s almost too many as it is hard to watch this many stocks for a trade trigger. I might therefore end up pruning the list very quickly after market open, but for now, these are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Longs: ARNC, FLIR, FTCH, MDLA, MRNA, NET, NTNX, NVCR, PING, SPCE, XLNX, ZUO
    Shorts: ALLY, FGEN, M, MAN, WTFC

    Good luck with your trading and investing.


  6. #116
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending June 12, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending June 12, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Bullish

    I’m gonna skip the annotated charts this week as I had a bit of a rough weekend. All three indices are in uptrend now, and NASDAQ even made a new high. The DOW continues to be a little wonky, although there is no question it is not in an uptrend. For these reasons my long term bias remains bullish. On the shorter term, the S&P and NASDAQ are pegged at the top of their regression channels and the DOW formed a bar above the upper boundary of its channel. This suggests that there might be a little bit of a pullback at some point in the near future so my short term bias is neutral going into the week.

    I compiled a rather long watchlist - too long actually, I’ll have to pare it down quickly. I found a lot of positive activity in energy stocks, particularly natural gas and oil during my scans. I don’t know if this activity is due to the OPEC meetings or something else, but it was across the board, so
    I picked a few to watch.
    Here are the stocks I will be watching for short term trades at the start of the week:
    Long: ADVM, BIDU, DDOG, GIL, HQY, MA, MTDR, NUVA, NVCR, OLED, OXY, SU, WORK
    Short: APPN, CLDR, FGEN, IPHI, LHCC, Z

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 06-07-2020 at 08:47 PM. Reason: Added title

  7. #117
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending June 19, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending June 19, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bearish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow, while exhibiting a few variations, particularly more volatility in the DOW, are essentially the same so I did not include charts for these indices.

    All three indices took a nasty turn to end the week as a flood of bad COVID-19 and economic news rocked the market. Thursday’s and Friday’s bearish bars closed the week with a lot of bearish momentum, and for this reason, my short term bias is bearish. The indices are still operating within the bounds of their bullish regression channels, and none of the indices made lower pivot lows. The NASDAQ, however, tested the bottom of its channel, and the DOW and S&P came close. For this reason, my long term bias is neutral while we wait to see what happens from this inflection point.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/z5q74jv9s5...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Longs: BILI, ESTC, GNMK,
    Shorts: CRNC, FLIR, FTNT, MNST, ZG

    Good luck with your trading and investing.


  8. #118
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending June 26, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending June 26, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Bullish

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow, while exhibiting a few variations, particularly more volatility in the DOW, are similar enough that I did not include charts for these indices.

    The previous week ended with some pretty nasty bars and when the market opened on Monday by gapping down hard, it looked like we might be headed into the correction I had been expecting. Instead of continuing to head down, however, the market reversed itself almost immediately as the bulls stepped in to propel the market to an up day. On Tuesday, the market gapped up hard to open then started to fade before the bulls once again stepped in for another up day. For the rest of the week, the market based sideways, although there was a little weakness on the DOW and S&P. Although all three indices closed up for the week, the DOW and S&P closed lower for the day on Friday and formed bearish engulfing bars whereas the NASDAQ closed up for the day and formed a bit of a bullish bottoming tail. What bothers me a little is that despite being an up week, there was still a lot of red in the market with intraday prices moving lower from their opens more often than not. Because of this, Friday’s bearish engulfing bars on the DOW and S&P, and the NASDAQ’s contrasting bullishness, my short term bias going into next week is neutral. With all three indices still continuing to operate within the confines of their uptrending regression channels, I have to acknowledge this bullishness on the longer time frame and change my long term bias back to bullish, although I still admit to having fears of an imminent correction.

    Note: This queasiness about the sustainability of the market’s bullishness has prevented me from buying stocks that I feel strongly about because they are either basing at the high or making new highs. I don’t like to buy into these patterns unless I am at least a little confident about market direction, but if this bullishness continues unabated, I will have to consider buying before these stocks simply run away from me.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/ixs2l2hqyj...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Long: ANAB, FOSL, KZR, MRNA, NVTA, VIR
    Short: ALLO, IIPR, NSA, SRE, SRG

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

  9. #119
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending July 3, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending July 3, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bearish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is similar to the DOW and therefore not included.

    While the indices started the week with bullish intentions, by the end of the week, all three indices had faded and closed lower, week over week. The NASDAQ, while challenging the lower bounds of its regression channel, managed to stay within it and maintained it bullish trend. The Dow and S&P, however, have turned decidedly bearish, although neither is technically in a downtrend ... yet. The Dow, in particular looks like it is ready to take out it prior pivot low and break its trend. I will be watching the indices closely this week, and I am apprehensive about the market’s direction. Because the Dow and S&P poked through the bottom of their regression channels, and because all three indices closed the week with a dark cloud cover bar, my short term bias headed into the week is bearish. Long term, I am simply nervous about the possibility of an imminent trend change, and for this reason, my long term bias is neutral.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/tsyfs13lha...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/4vuo832lmn...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Found a ton of short setups in my scans this weekend, which added to my bearish fears, so I’m short heavy this week. Here are the stocks I will be watching for long and short day/swing trades to start the week:
    Long: CLDR, OKTA, TWOU
    Short: BSGM, CADE, CARG, CNC, DB, DDOG, EDIT, FL, IMUX, LX, SFL

    Good luck with your trading and investing.


  10. #120
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    Default Market sentiment for week ending July 10, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending July 10, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Bullish

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ and Dow. The S&P is somewhere between the other two indexes and I have included a chart for it.

    The indices bounced off their lower regression channel boundaries and headed higher with all three indices ending up higher week-over-week. There are some significant divergences between the indices with the NASDAQ continuing to show bullishness while the S&P, and particularly the Dow, are showing a lot weakness even in their rallies. I’m just not sure what make of this, and I’ve given up trying to guess when the markets will rollover. As long as the NASDAQ and tech stocks continue to buck the weakness of the other two indices, I believe there will be bullish plays. The problem, however, is that many of the best stocks, i.e. the stocks that are consistently making new highs, are either basing at their highs or shooting up and moving far away from their moving averages. This makes it difficult to get decent entries or at least less risky ones. So I continue to trade cautiously buying a few stocks at or near their highs in the hopes that there is some steam left in this rally. The NASDAQ will tell the tale, so I will be watching that index closely. So far, the NASDAQ has stayed firmly within its regression channel and continues to make higher pivot lows and higher pivot highs. For this reason, my long term bias is back to bullish. The NASDAQ is approaching the upper boundary of its regression channel, however, and so a slight pullback here might be forthcoming. For this reason my short term bias is neutral. One thing I should note is that when the NASDAQ bounces off the bottom of its channel, it seems to be the best time to enter long positions.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/pfkgsdri6s...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the Dow:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/zi85265y21...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I found a lot of long setups this week that I liked probably because of the strong week the NASDAQ had. I may have to prune these down after market open on Monday. Here are the stocks I will be watching:

    Long: AAPL, CGNX, GH, LVGO, MASI, MELI, NET, STAA, ZS
    Short: JCOM, PBH

    Good luck with your trading and investing.


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