Quantcast
I have 26 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
Page 9 of 11 FirstFirst ... 67891011 LastLast
Results 81 to 90 of 102
  1. #81
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default Market sentiment for week ending February 21, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending February 21, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Bullish

    I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ. I have omitted the Dow and S&P because they are mostly consistent with the NASDAQ, except for a little more weakness inside their regression channels.

    It was another fairly incredible week for the market as all three indices climbed to new highs. The NASDAQ is pegged to the top of its regression channel, and both the NASADQ and S&P are basing at the high. The Dow doesn’t exhibit quite the strength of the other two indices, but it did have enough strength to power to a new
    high on Wednesday before pulling back a little. Because of this, my short term bias is bullish going into the new week.

    What strikes me about the market in general, is how sustainable the current strength appears to be. General technical indicators are still strong across the board, volatility is low, earnings have been good, and numerous individual stocks are exhibiting strong chart patterns. Moreover, economic indicators continue to show strength in the economy. There just aren’t any pronounced signs a a pending recession yet. For these reasons, I remain bullish for the longer term.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/3pv4nxtsyf...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    There weren’t a lot of compelling patterns that jumped out at me during my scans this weekend, but here are some stocks I’ll be watching for day and swing trading opportunities to start the week:
    Longs: CC, EXAS, RUN, TGTX, TSLA, TWOU
    Shorts: CAL, GRUB, LPSN

    Good luck with your trading and investing.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 02-16-2020 at 02:17 PM. Reason: Added title

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    Also helping, methinks, is the perception among some that if Bernie emerges as the front runner among the Democrats, Trump will beat him, which should be good for stocks. Also, the plan floated late this week where wage earners would be able to deduct from taxable income money newly invested in stocks. Whether it happens, and it might not if the Democrats can hold the House, the perception that it might should help.

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    Also helping, methinks, is the perception among some that if Bernie emerges as the front runner among the Democrats, Trump will beat him, which should be good for stocks. Also, the plan floated late this week where wage earners would be able to deduct from taxable income money newly invested in stocks. Whether it happens, and it might not if the Democrats can hold the House, the perception that it might should help.
    I’m hoping that Biden wins the nomination so that this presidential race can be settled in the only way that makes sense ... with a sword fight! Trump can wear his CornPop outfit.

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default

    Wasn’t sure which thread to post this on, so I decided to post it here. I was doing some research on bull and bear markets in the Dow since 1900 and found some interesting stuff. I was surprised by some of the things I found.

    Not too surprising, the worst bear market in terms of percentage drop was, by far, the bear market that followed the 1929 crash. In just three short years the market lost 86% of its value. As the great Frank Zappa would say, “Great googly moogly!”

    This bear market, however, wasn’t even close to being the worst in terms of duration. It only lasted three years before the market reversed into a seven year bull market, although it was only able to recover 54% of it’s lost value. The Dow didn’t reclaim its 1929 high until the year 1959.

    Over about a five year period from 1937 to 1942, a second bear market followed. This time the market dropped about 55% of its value. Still pretty bad, huh. Well, quit your grinning and drop your linen, because, in terms of duration, there are some whopper bear markets to come.

    Before we get to the next great bear market, there was the great bull market of the 50’s, the baby boomer bull market. That lasted from 1949 until 1966, about a 17 year duration, and was the market during which the 1929 high was taken out. That was an astonishing run and mirrored the explosion of the post war US economy.

    Then it comes, the great bear market of the 70’s, from 1966 all the way through 1982, about a 16 year run. Some people would say this was a period of decline in the US and the market certainly agreed, losing 73% of its value during this period.

    After that came the great bull market of the 1990’s, lasting about 17 years from 1982 to 1999. This bullish era came to an end with the burst of the .com bubble.

    After that, the market went sideways for about 8 years until the credit crash in late 2007. This brief but violent crash only lasted a little over a year and ended in 2009 when the current bull market started.

    There are a couple of lessons to be learned here. First lesson is that the current bull market, which started in 2009 is “only” 11 years old, far short of previous mega bull markets which lasted 16-17 years. So for those who would say that this bullishness can’t continue much longer, history says otherwise. I don’t doubt that we are overdue for a correction, but I for one think this bull market still has legs for the long term. The second lesson is that when we do actually go into a recession it is likely to be a nasty one, possibly creating a bear market environment that could last a decade to more. Yikes. I don’t see that happening any time soon, but history tells us that it will happen sooner or later. Here’s to hoping it doesn’t happen for at least another decade. 😬

  5. #85
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    I can best relate to my own limited in length of time experience.

    In March 2000, late in my freshman year in high school, the Nasdaq hit a record of 5048 or thereabouts.

    By the time I started my senior year in September 2002 the Nasdaq had fallen to 1200.

    I was two months short of 30 early in 2015 before Nasdaq got back to 5000.

    So based on this limited experience I conclude it's important to try to minimize one's loses during the relatively short bear markets because it takes many years to get it back. I agree it doesn't look like this will happen any time soon as we have an administration and a Fed who are following bullish policies. But if it soon appears Bernie is going to beat Trump and given that the Fed has already fired a lot of their recession fighting bullets (low rates, big balance sheet) things could change fast.

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    I can best relate to my own limited in length of time experience.

    In March 2000, late in my freshman year in high school, the Nasdaq hit a record of 5048 or thereabouts.

    By the time I started my senior year in September 2002 the Nasdaq had fallen to 1200.

    I was two months short of 30 early in 2015 before Nasdaq got back to 5000.

    So based on this limited experience I conclude it's important to try to minimize one's loses during the relatively short bear markets because it takes many years to get it back. I agree it doesn't look like this will happen any time soon as we have an administration and a Fed who are following bullish policies. But if it soon appears Bernie is going to beat Trump and given that the Fed has already fired a lot of their recession fighting bullets (low rates, big balance sheet) things could change fast.
    I was surprised that a bear market can last as long as it does. That 16 year bear market that spanned the 70’s was a nasty one. God forbid we go into one of those because I just don’t know how to make as much in a bear market. It’s much harder, especially in a retirement account in which you can’t short.

    I agree with you on Bernie. If he were to win the presidency, I fear that a prolonged bear market would begin, and you’re right, the Fed is out of bullets. Even if the Fed could pull the trigger again, there’s is not much they would be able to do about the dramatic drop in productivity and GDP that would inevitably occur as the economy contracted under a Bernie spend-a-palooza administration. Then again, I don’t know how much of his policy would be enacted because there are plenty of Democrats who wouldn’t support the kinds of legislation he would likely propose. Something tells me that just like last time, the Democratic Party itself won’t allow Bernie to get the nomination.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default Market sentiment for week ending February 28, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending February 28, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bearish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and Dow because of a chart divergence between the two indices. I have not included a chart for the S&P, which lies somewhere in between the states of the other two indices.

    The week ended on a bit of low note as the indices pulled back hard two days in a row. Friday’s wide ranging red bar bar was a little worrisome, and although it did have a bit of a bottoming tail, its width alone could portend more downside to come. For that reason, my short term bias is bearish. I have frequently said that the market is overdue for a significant correction, so I will be very attentive to the next few days action to try and sniff out whether the current action is the beginning of that correction. For that reason, my long term bias is currently neutral while things sort themselves out.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/xzpltrzjxg...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the DOW:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/8a7tfxlfn7...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    I saw tons off bearish charts while doing my scans, but that doesn’t mean that I saw a lot of tradable patterns. I did find a few I liked though, so here are some stocks I will be watching for day or swing trading patterns to start the week.
    Longs: CNSL, IOVA, TWOU
    Shorts: APLS, CVET, QRVO

    Good luck with your trading and investing.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 02-23-2020 at 01:09 PM. Reason: Added Title

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    8,941

    Default

    My portfolio is down 8.9% I haven't sold anything and bought some great dividend payers at discount. The last great downturn in Dec. 2018 I was down 9.9% and gained it all back in about 45 days. I'm optimistic.

    -----------------billy

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    482

    Default Market Sentiment for Week Ending March 6, 2020

    Market sentiment for week ending March 6, 2020

    Short Term Bias: Bullish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included two annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ in order to look for a possible long term, repeatable pattern. One show the period from late 2016 to the end of 2018 and the second shows the period from the start of 2019 to the current correction. For the sake of time, I did not include charts for either the Dow or the S&P, although the DOW was an interesting case study that has retraced much more deeply than either the NASDAQ or S&P.

    This week, I decided to take a long term look at the NASDAQ as an exercise to see if I could discern a possible long term repeating pattern that might give us a clue about where the indices might be heading from here. I have to preface my remarks by saying, however, that trying to call a bottom is difficult to impossible. That’s why I consider what I have done this week as more of an exercise that a hard analysis. Still, many things in this world follow repeatable patterns and the markets are no exception. We see this on short term time frames all the time. Even on long term time frames, analysis techniques such as Elliot Waves can be eerily accurate.

    In this case, I did something very simplistic. I compared the previous uptrend and significant correction to the just ended uptrend and current correction. I did indeed find several similarities in the two time frames as you can see by looking at the two NASDAQ charts.

    In the first period, the uptrend started in February, 2016 and went into a deep correction in October, 2018. The length of the uptrend was approximately 20 months. The length of the correction was approximately 3 months. The correction reached a Fibonacci retrace level of 50%, right on the nose. This correction was deep enough and long enough to qualify as a mini-bear market. Interestingly, during the correction, the market bounced off an area in which it had previously consolidated.

    In January, 2019, a new uptrend started and lasted until mid February, 2020. The length of this uptrend was therefore about 13 months. At this point the correction started and has so far lasted a mere week. Again, however, it is approaching an area in which it has previously consolidated and in which it might find the support to bounce.

    How much can we extrapolate from this data? Well, a little. I don’t put much stock in trying to compare the ratios of uptrend length to correction length, but I do consider the retrace levels to be somewhat significant. The late 2018 correction retraced to the 50% Fibonacci level before turning. So far, this early 2020 correction has retraced to a level between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels. I also put some weight into the fact that the market is approaching a consolidation level in which it might find some support as it did in early 2019.

    So am I saying that the current correction will stop at the 50% level? No, but I do believe that the 50% retrace level is important. If the NASDAQ pushes down through this level, we could be looking at a prolonged bear market. If this level holds, based on the prior patterns, I believe the market will rebound to make new highs and I will probably go all in again.

    The bounce on Friday was significant enough for me to start adding back some buy and hold long positions. My short term bias is therefore bullish. This was a bit of an anticipatory move since I usually like to see some confirmation, but the nature of the drop was so severe, I believe any rebound will be abrupt and I didn’t want to miss out on good entries. If the indices hold at these levels and start to climb sustainably, I will be adding even more positions over the course of the next few weeks, but I am also a little apprehensive. It is very possible that the markets could bounce a little and roll over again or just continue down on more bad Coronavirus news. For that reason, my longer term bias is neutral, and I will be cautious about adding from here on out while I try to confirm that this correction is truly over.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ for period 2016-2018:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/bqzv9qq4yc...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ for period 2019-early 2020:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/czdjsagifw...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Since I am just trying yo get a feel for the longer term market direction, I will be focusing on longer term buy and hold positions this week. The stocks I will be watching for entries are basically the current stocks on my Long Term (LT) watchlist:

    Longs
    : AAXN, ABMD, ADBE, AMT, AMZN, APPF, APPN, ATVI, BIDU, BILI, BRK/B, BZUN, COUP, CRM, CRNC, CRSP, CRWD, DAVA, EEFT, EPAM, EQIX, ESTC, EVBG, EXPI, FB, FLGT, FRPT, FSLY, FVRR, GH, HCAT, HQY, HUBS, IIPR, ISRG, KNSL, LITE, LVGO, MA, MDLA, MELI, MNST, MTCH, NEE, NTNX, NVCR, NVTA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, PAYC, PING, PYPL, QTWO, RDFN, RGEN, ROKU, RVLV, SFIX, SMAR, SPLK, SQ, SWAV, TDOC, TEAM, TLRA, TREX, TSLA, TTWO, TWLO, V, VEEV, WD, WIX, WORK, ZEN


    Good luck with your trading and investing

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 03-01-2020 at 03:12 PM. Reason: Added title

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,067

    Default

    Good analysis. I bought some stuff too, late this week. Solid citizen stuff: V, MA, MSFT, AAPL, ADBE. (Still can't understand why BUD is down 20%. Do they think people will drink less?)

    I'm interested to know what will happen in the AM now that a death has been reported in the US. Methinks there is at some point a realistic chance we'll see more cases in the US (maybe not deaths) and then some mayors or governors closing schools, telling people not to go to the movies, games being played in empty stadiums, etc. Fears of lost revenue and supply problems will hurt stocks though given the rise in stay at home stocks Friday some stocks will do better.

    Also like to see what happens in Tuesday's election. Bernie is beating Warren even in her home state, per polls. Bloomberg's own network is running commentary on how he is in a weak position. If Bernie starts looking like a likely nominee and the economy starts to weaken because of virus related stuff and people start thinking he will win that won't help. I'm leaving health care and banks off my buy list.

    Would be nice to get some clarity on these things. Could take a while.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Weekly Market Sentiment thread has disappeared!
    By BlueWolf in forum Discussion
    Replies: 11
    Last Post: 08-02-2019, 04:59 PM
  2. Weekly Top 5
    By Lucavia123 in forum Discussion
    Replies: 90
    Last Post: 12-07-2014, 09:11 AM
  3. Weekly Market snapshot
    By Quentin_Barbarino in forum Reference
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 03-12-2013, 11:57 AM
  4. Weekly charts
    By lemonjello in forum Discussion
    Replies: 9
    Last Post: 12-30-2006, 09:16 PM
  5. investor sentiment
    By cosmicporch in forum Discussion
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 11-24-2006, 03:47 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  




Do you like this site?

Go to the homepage of
$$$ MR. MARKET $$$