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I have 24 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #41
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    Default Mid Week Update for the week ending October 4, 2019

    Mid Week Update for the week ending October 4, 2019.

    Short Term Bias:Bearish
    Long Term Bias: Neutral (Leaning Bearish)

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar, with a small difference that I will mention below.

    What a difference a week makes. The biggest news is that the indices all rolled over and formed a lower pivot high, i.e. they did not take out the prior high before pivoting. This breaks the December-August bullish long term trend. The big question is where do we go from here? Technically, we have not formed a lower pivot low yet, so there is the slim hope for the bulls that the current correction bottomed out in early August and is trending back up from here. I wouldn’t count on it, though. BTW, the S&P and Dow are following similar paths to the NASDAQ, with the minor difference being that they pivoted much closer to their highs.

    All of this leaves me in a precarious position. I am heavily reinvested in the market, so do I take the losses and exit from all of my current round of investments, do I just thin out my positions, or do I ride this out intact? I still believe in the long term prospects of all the companies I invested in and I believe they will pay off 3 to 10 years out, but I hate draw downs. My inclination is to cut and run, but I’m still on the fence with my hand hovering over the “nuke” button. God how I wish I hadn’t re-entered. I exited at just the right time, locked in big profits, and then re-entered most of my position at lower entry points. Then I watched in horror as the markets went from bad to worse. Ugh. I still have a little investment capital to work with and I have my day/swinging trading account, so I’m not totally sidelined, but I’m going to have to be creative with option plays, shorts, and international investments to make money if we really are headed into bear territory. I can at least cover some of my draw down by some clever shorting. Maybe it’s time to switch over to my “Technical Trades Anyone” thread instead of the “Stocks For The Long Term” thread, although I can still add some write ups to the later thread.

    The only good overall advice I have to offer right now is don’t enter any long positions right now unless you really believe in the company. At the very least, I’d recommend buy and hold bulls keep most of their powder dry (at least 75% in cash), wait for a bottom, and buy on the way up (you don’t have to call an exact bottom).

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/eoga5zdvo3...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 10-02-2019 at 10:56 PM. Reason: Added title

  2. #42
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    BW, thank you for your always cogent and welcome advice. I have resisted trading for quite some time now, as I am tying up some loose ends in my slightly chaotic (not Trumpian!) life. Changing brokers also supplies logistical problems as well (mostly involving correct POA papers and hold-ups in transferring of positions and cash). Have been following you closely all the same. Thank you again.

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
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    Hamilton MA
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    Quote Originally Posted by riverbabe View Post
    BW, thank you for your always cogent and welcome advice. I have resisted trading for quite some time now, as I am tying up some loose ends in my slightly chaotic (not Trumpian!) life. Changing brokers also supplies logistical problems as well (mostly involving correct POA papers and hold-ups in transferring of positions and cash). Have been following you closely all the same. Thank you again.
    BlueWolf, how about some downside protection with puts or shorting some relevant index rather than actually selling?

  4. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by riverbabe View Post
    BW, thank you for your always cogent and welcome advice. I have resisted trading for quite some time now, as I am tying up some loose ends in my slightly chaotic (not Trumpian!) life. Changing brokers also supplies logistical problems as well (mostly involving correct POA papers and hold-ups in transferring of positions and cash). Have been following you closely all the same. Thank you again.
    Thank you, Riverbabe. I appreciate the kind words, and I’m glad if I can help if only in some small way.

  5. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    BlueWolf, how about some downside protection with puts or shorting some relevant index rather than actually selling?
    I’ve though about that Louetta. I’m not a big fan of protective puts, but in this case, if I stumbled my way into a prolonged bear market, I might have to at least consider them. I’ll have to look at the costs, though. I like the idea of shorting the indices better, and I probably will do that if the inflection points signal that the market is headed for a big leg down. If this is a prolonged bear market, however, one thing I definitely be doing is shorting equities straight up, maybe even some of the very stocks I own in my long term account (in a different account obviously). We’ll just have to see what’s up. There are a number of economic indicators coming out this week still, and earnings season is still a month away.

  6. #46
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    Oct 2003
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    Hamilton MA
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    Good day today (Thursday) for your stuff.

  7. #47
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    The problem with the stocks I invest in is that they are, for the most part, growth stocks. Many of them therefore trade at extremely high valuations (based on future earnings). When the hamster wheel slows down, they are often the first stocks to sell off. That’s why I usually have a few “defensive” stocks like BRK/B, FICO, MA, and V, although, as we have seen, the financial industry can have its own melt downs. In the end, there isn’t a real good short term defense against a recession. You either trade in and out, or buy stocks you believe in for the long term and ride the bear markets out.

  8. #48
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    Default Market Sentiment for the week ending October 11, 2019

    Short Term Bias:Neutral
    Long Term Bias: Neutral

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar.

    To be honest, my bearish apprehensions from a week ago haven’t really gone away despite two solidly bullish days at the end of the week. The problem is that it is still unclear whether the market truly pivoted back to the upside last week. If you draw a (downward) regression channel over the bars of the last week or so, you can see that the bullish action of the last two days of last week still fall within the channel. There is therefore a good possibility that the markets will reverse themselves here, stay within the regression channel, and challenge the August pivot low. Let’s put on our optimist hat for a second. In that case, we could be witnessing the formation of a higher (than August) pivot low, which is a characteristic of an upward trend. In this rosy scenario, the quick correction that formed the early August low bottomed out at the pivot and has been clawing its way back up ever since. Of course, extreme volatility has made this less clear. If that’s what’s happened, of course. For me, I’ll have to wait and see. I need more data to get a good gauge on what is up with the market. My short and long term bias is therefore neutral, and I will trade with extreme caution this week, if I trade at all.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/3d1gm4bpsd...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    The funny thing is that I just didn’t find any short setups that I liked going into this week. Does that tell me something? Maybe. In any event, if I haven’t said it before, please keep in mind that the following stocks are just watchers. I don’t trade them until I get some kind of specific setup or signal, e.g. certain kinds of intraday candlestick patterns, breaking of support/resistance levels, etc. So please don’t ever take any of these watchers as recommendations to buy/sell at the open. Having said all that, here are a few stocks I will be watching early in the week:

    Long: CGNX (I previously owned this as a long term hold and want to again at some point), KNSL, NEE, REAL, WIX
    Short: -

    Good luck with your trading and investing.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 10-06-2019 at 07:58 PM. Reason: Added title

  9. #49
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    No Sunday update this week due to family shindig. I’ll try to post something early in the week, but it’s going to be a very busy week for me.

  10. #50
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    Default Mid Week Update for the week ending October 11, 2019

    Mid Week Update for the week ending October 11, 2019

    Short Term Bias:Bearish
    Long Term Bias: Bearish

    I have included an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and Dow are similar.

    Despite the bullish action of the last five bars of the indices, I have taken on a bearish disposition. This stems from the appearance of a descending triangle, which is a bearish pattern, on the daily charts. Right now, the indices are hovering right at the upper bounds of this triangle with topping tails possibly foreshadowing a rollover. This is why my short term and long term bias has switched from neutral to bearish. I truly hope this pattern doesn’t play out, but I cannot deny that it’s there simply because I want my positions to go up. In any event, I remain nervous about being back in the market, and I would sure love to see the indices obliterate the top from early September. That would give me a nice, warm, longer term bullish feeling. 😉

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/l6jpuyfcy5...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    I did do a few short term trades at the beginning of the week including WD and ANSS. I kind of like both of these companies as possible longer term holds or swing trades, but I don’t want to add any more long term positions right now, so I was in and out. No shorts this week so far.

    Good luck to everyone with their trades and investments.

    Last edited by BlueWolf; 10-15-2019 at 07:23 PM. Reason: Added title

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