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  1. #1

    Default The Foxwoods Top 5

    Here are my 5 favorite stocks from the recent data dump:

    AZO KL PAGS PAYS QD

    Which one do you like? And why? I will buy one of these this week.
    Last edited by mrmarket; 06-26-2019 at 09:26 PM.
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  2. #2
    Join Date
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    Default

    PAGS. Great revenue growth, good sector.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Default

    I did a shallow analysis and here are my thought on the Foxwoods Top 5.

    AZO
    Revenue/Earnings: AZO has experienced modest but steady annual earnings and revenue growth over the last five years with a seasonal arc to earnings. Quarterly YoY growth in the last four quarters has been solid, and they beat all four times. Morningstar has AZO as a little overvalued. FY ends in August, and their most recent report was on May 20, 2019. AZO has a 40% exposure in its supply chain to Chinese produced products. Continuation of the China-US trade war is therefore likely to take a toll on earnings at some point. Overall, there isnít anything spectacular going on here, but there has been a steady, positive climb in revenue and earnings over the last several years. The high exposure of their supply chain Chinese goods, however, does warrant a little caution.
    Pays Dividend: No
    Chart: The stock has been in an uptrend since April of 2018. It just came out of a 38% bullish retrace of itís last leg up (Feb through May). It also got a boost from a couple of recent analyst upgrades that drove the stock up to challenge its most recent pivot high. AZO made a new all time high last Wednesday (May 28th), but the bar ending up being a shooting star, which warrants a little concern. AZO gapped down the following day, but then rebounded on Friday. At this point it looks like it may be trying to base a little, which could give it a platform for moving higher, but a correction down to the $975 level would still preserve the longer term uptrend.
    My Grade: B-

    KL
    Revenue/Earnings: Annual revenue and earnings growth has been outstanding over the last four years. Over the last four quarters, revenue growth has been very good, although there was a hiccup in earnings two quarters back. Quarterly YoY growth has been excellent. Morningstar has KL as fairly valued. The last conference call was May 8, 2019.
    Pays Dividend: Yes
    Chart: After a spectacular start to the year, KL has been in a somewhat sideways trend after rolling over in early March. There were a couple of analyst downgrades in February that may have contributed to the rollover. KL is currently in slightly oversold territory, and is sitting at support around $31-$32. The 20 day SMA recently crossed up over the 40 SMA after spending all of April and the first two weeks of March below the 40 day SMA. On a note of caution, if the current support level fails, the next level of significant support is not until $26-$27. All in all, the chart is not currently presenting a compelling entry, but it is also not suggesting an imminent breakdown.
    My Grade: B

    PAGS
    Revenue/Earnings: Annual revenue and earnings growth over the last five years has been outstanding. There is a seasonal arc to revenue and earnings. Over the last four quarters, quarterly YoY growth has been excellent. Morningstar has PAGS as fairly valued. The last conference call was May 14, 2019. Over the last four quarters, they have beaten in every quarter except the most recent one. In March, PAGS got an upgrade from J P Morgan.
    Pays Dividend: No
    Chart: On a micro level, PAGS has been a little all-over-the-place with choppiness, gaps and tails. On a more macro level, PAGS has been in an uptrend since December of 2018. There was a bullish (38% Fibonacci level) correction that started in late March. Since then, PAGS has resumed its upward move, taking out the previous pivot high. The 20 day SMA just crossed up over the 40 day SMA, but the price is extended from both of these moving averages, suggesting that an immediate entry might be subject to some draw down. Overall, the most recent six months of chart paint a picture of a stock in a strong uptrend with more to come.
    My Grade: A-

    PAYS
    Revenue/Earnings: Annual revenue and earnings growth has been outstanding over the last four years. Over the last four quarters Quarterly YoY growth has also been outstanding. 2018 saw outstanding YoY growth. Morningstar has PAYS as fairly valued. The last conference call was May 14, 2019.
    Pays Dividend: No
    Chart: After a precipitous rise in January and early February, PAYS settled into a sideways consolidation trend before starting to trend up again in April. Price is very currently extended from both the 20 day and 30 day SMA, and each of the last five bars has a topping tail. Price does seem to be basing in the $10-$10.5 range, however, so entering might not be as risky as the moving averages and topping tails suggest.
    My Grade: A-

    QD
    Revenue/Earnings: Annual revenue and earnings growth has been outstanding over the last five years. Over the last four quarters Quarterly YoY growth has also been outstanding. QD has beaten estimates in each of the last four quarters. Morningstar has QD as fairly valued. The last conference call was May 20, 2019.
    Pays Dividend: No
    Chart: On the micro level, the chart for QD is extremely choppy, filled with tails, gaps, and wide ranging bars. On a macro level, from December, 2018 to early May, QD was in a sloppy up trend. It teased at a breakdown in the trend in late March, taking out the prior pivot low within the trend. QD quickly reversed back to the upside, however, trending upwards for 5 weeks before rolling over into its current micro down trend. The current level does not look like a good entry to me. I also have a lot of trepidation about the fact that this is a Chinese company and is therefore going to affected by the ongoing trade war even though it is unclear how QDís supply chain is affected by tariffs. Bottom line is that despite QDís solid earnings, its chart and the ongoing trade war leave me wary about this stock.
    My Grade: C-

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