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I have 83 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1

    Default MTCH ==> The Floridian Winner

    ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)

    Full disclosure….$$$MR. MARKET$$$ has been happily married for over 30 years so when the whole idea of online dating came into being, it wasn’t something that generated much interest, from a personal standpoint. However, after seeing friends and relatives over the age of 50 step up for round 2, I soon realized that things have changed quite a bit. What I soon learned is that if you want to meet your next ex-wife, it’s likely it’s not going to happen at the supermarket or your local gin mill. Even if you’re wicked old like me, it seems that the happy hunting ground is in the cyber world of bits and bytes.

    Yesterday I bought MTCH (Match Group) at 53.12. I will sell it in 4 – 6 weeks at 61.59. Here’s why I like MTCH:

    First of all, look at this amazing chart.



    All this stock wants to do is go up up up up up. This stock is up 100% in the last 12 months while the S&P 500 has languished at around 7%. Better still, I was able to buy this guy on a dip. MTCH has averaged a one-month gain of 7.8% following seven other pullbacks of this nature over the past three years. Forget about the quant stuff. It makes sense to try and find out just what this company does.

    Believe it or not, this company is now 23 years old and is one of the largest and oldest dating services on the Internet. Match.com serves users from over 24 countries and hosts its websites in 15 languages. Users create profiles and describe themselves and what they are hoping to find in the people they might date. These profiles and other tools are key to finding that special person.

    After setting your preferred dating criteria, Match will display general search results of possible matches. You can fine-tune the results by clicking on the tabs. The “mutual match” highlights profiles that closely match your specifications. On the other hand, the reverse match shows the users who are searching for someone like you.
    Match words is an advanced search filter that allows you to search for specific tag words such as golf, Springsteen, football, investing or awesome bench press. The feature shows you all the profiles that have the same Match Words as the ones you have searched for.

    Setting up a date on this site is quite easy because its compatibility system ensures that you already know quite a lot about each other even before you start chatting and flirting. Therefore, it is quite easy to know if there is a mutual connection between members. Although the number of users on a dating site is not a feature, it is a vital aspect that provides users with more opportunities to meet viable matches. The number of active users translates to the availability of viable dating opportunities. Moreover, the huge number of users attracts more people to try the service. Therefore, a huge user base sure does help.

    Here are some reviews:
    “Conclusion: You can not go wrong with this dating site.
    Even though there are thousands of dating sites, match.com has definitely positioned itself as the leading match maker site and your chance of finding perfect match is high!
    Written by: Michele Baird”

    Now then Michele seems happy, Match Group isn’t just the company responsible for match.com, it also is comprised of Tinder which is the top-grossing dating app worldwide. If you’ve ever gone to a restaurant and seen people having dinner with their kids, you’ll notice that the kids are looking at their phones and these days it’s likely the parents are looking at their phones too. With this change in habits, Match Group has drawn in more and more customers.

    On average, Tinder users go to 20 to 25 social places a month. With the places application, Tinder users can see who else went to their favorite new Italian restaurant, gym around the corner or the dive bar down the street. That’s cool, in a creepy kind of way.

    Recently, MTCH launched Tinder U. This is a student focused experience inside the Tinder app. This allows students to get the full fleet of Tinder’s features while interacting with other college student on their campuses or on campuses nearby. For example, in Boston, users will see students from Harvard, MIT, Boston College and all of the other colleges in the Boston area. Tinder U provides a powerful way for college students to interact on a daily and weekly basis, centered around going out and meeting up, which should really enhance college social life. So I guess that rules out drinking til you gak.

    Match Group has grown subscribers every quarter since at least the end of 2014, with a compound annual growth rate of 26% during that time period. That kind of growth rate leads to earnings and these kinds of earnings at this kind of growth rate more than justifies its valuation. Tinder’s growth has been literally off the charts.

    On Aug. 7, Match released second-quarter results that beat Wall Street's estimates. Revenue jumped 36% year over year to $421.2 million, operating income surged 81% to $150.2 million, and earnings per share ejaculated 165% to $0.45, which of course beat the street. Tinder’s direct revenue increased 136% year-over-year with subscriber growth of 88% YOY. From 2015 to 2017, revenue for Match Group as a whole expanded by almost 50%. Last quarter MTCH experienced very strong topline growth in and also experienced a meaningful jump in margins. Their outlook for the remainder of the year is very positive. Match’s 42 percent EBITDA margin was its highest in history. The company projects total revenue of $1.68 billion to $1.72 billion, up from a prior outlook of $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion. This represents growth of 27.8% over 2017.

    MTCH next earnings report is next month and they have seen a nice streak of beating earnings estimates, especially when looking at the previous two reports. The average surprise for the last two quarters was 13.47%. Are you surprised yet, ANAL-ysts? Not wanted to get burned, ANAL-yst estimates have been trending higher, but I would still expect another earnings beat.

    Facebook announced plans to enter the online dating market. But I wouldn’t worry about this. Facebook sucks. No one under the age of 30 uses it anymore. All it is now is old people arguing about Trump. It’s about as sexy as the unwashed laundry in your basement. Nobody is going to use Facebook for dating. Many people already minimize their Facebook usage because it is not sufficiently cordoned off from relatives, employers, etc and because Facebook has violated their trust in the past (cambridge analytica, etc). No one is going to willingly supply Facebook information about their dating life at this point. Facebook used to be a cool alternative to MySpace for college kids. Now it's creepy necessity for most people and one that young people would prefer to avoid.

    Plus Facebook is getting smashed by the government as they beat up Zuckerberg about privacy issues. The last thing they want to promote is casual sexual encounters between strangers (something Tinder is already very good at, by the way.) Anyway, even the worst case scenario would be Facebook growing this 15 billion dollar industry into a 50 billion dollar one, and Match Group will certainly pick up users as a result. Remember, Match Group owns more than 45 online dating brands including Match, Tinder and OKCupid. There are 600 million “unattached singles” worldwide with roughly 80 percent not currently using a dating service. Can you say, “upside”?

    When you look at the recent and projected growth rates of MTCH, it makes you wonder why this stock trades at a PE of only 31. It is spitting out a profit margin of 33%. Return on assets of 13.5% and a RIDICULOUS return on equity of 83%. You know, I’ve never owned AMZN stock because it always seemed too expensive to me, then it just kept growing and growing and growing. This time, with MTCH, it seems like the stock has not gotten ahead of itself yet. One thing is for sure, there will always be a need for finding that special someone.

    Young people aren’t the only ones who love MTCH. The company loves itself. In 2018, they have repurchased a total of 2 million shares under their 6 million share repurchase authorization.

    I think with this stock pick, I will most certainly be finding a perfect match soon. I will match my stock pick gains to the bank for some big time $$$$$ and then head down to the Ivy Inn and buy everyone a drink so maybe they can find a date the old fashioned way.

    I am HUGE!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,335

    Default

    Good pick, good write-up, good luck.

    Separately, people may not be using Facebook that much but Instagram (which Facebook owns) is on fire. Don't forget Picdeer for bigger copies of Instagram photos.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    northern ohio
    Posts
    3,358

    Default

    Beware of the uglies who troll online dating sites for their next victim. My daughter was targeted and ended up reporting the guy to the FBI. They just said "Yup, and we'll bet he apologized profusely to get back in your good graces after he needed money from you and you refused. And he was a really CHARMING guy too!" And, yes, it was MTCH. Apparently there is no protection given to root out these creeps. Sorry, not getting my money on this one.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    249

    Default

    Good luck, and man I enjoy reading your write-ups! You should consider writing a book detailing your strategy. Write it in the same style as your write-ups here and I bet it would do well. Maybe even pitch the idea, get an advance AND a ghost writer to do the hard work. You have a following and market already started here.
    Math doesn't lie, but people do.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,723

    Default

    Great writeup and a fantastic pick, $$MM!! I'm in with you today at $49! Your analysis makes a sound argument for buying this one for the long-term, as I do see these apps being around for quite some time, racking up some gigantic profits in the meantime.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    274

    Default

    For those of you holding MTCH, they report earnings this Tuesday, 11/06/18, after market close. The Wall Street consensus for MTCH is revenue of 438.30 with an EPS of .36. They beat the last two quarters and missed the two quarters prior to that. Good luck.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    557

    Default

    Beat on top and bottom and growth looks good.
    Stock price taking a 10% haircut and I cannot clearly see why, but I just grabbed (or should I say swiped?) shares AH. Conference call in the morning.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,335

    Default

    Bloomberg's write-up says "the company said revenue growth would flat-line through the rest of the year". Those kind of characterizations don't help.

    I see the company has declared a $2.00 special dividend payable on Dec. 19. Wonder if this warrants adjusting Mr. Market's target price.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    557

    Default

    I read that Bloomberg article but cannot find that the company said anything yet in respect to flat revenue growth as the conference call is tomorrow morning and nothing is disclosed in the company's release.
    The release and figures reflect great cash flow and probably more acquisitions on their radar (which some may translate into flatter organic growth).
    https://ir.mtch.com/static-files/6c5...3-2d7ec42fbf44

    There is a large percentage of shorts and imagine many covered tonight.

    Will see what happens during the call tomorrow.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Earth (Mostly)
    Posts
    274

    Default

    From the Bloomberg article: “Match Group Inc. shares dropped more than 10 percent after the company said revenue growth would flat-line through the rest of the year. Sales in the fourth quarter will be $440 million to $450 million, missing the average analyst estimate of $454.5 million.” Growth is always the driver of stock price, and investors must be putting some stock in this, pushing the share price down after hours. If they do indeed come in at the low end with $440 million next quarter, it would be the first quarterly decline in six quarters. The only way the currently inflated valuations can be justified in investors’ minds is with continued, high powered growth. The good news is that even at $440 million, that is still 16% year-over-year growth, which is very good. That has to be worth something. We’ll see if the conference call can re-ignite the longs tomorrow morning.

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