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I have 84 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #21
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    God I hope I’m wrong, Louetta, and that this is nothing more than a correction that will soon play out. In the meantime, I going to continue shorting everything in sight 😮.

    I have a cousin who worked for over 30 years on the AMEX and NYSE, and he has great contacts in the financial sector. He introduced me to someone who used to be the head of one of the exchanges - I won’t say which one to protect his identity. Tomorrow I’m going to send him an email to get his opinion. If he provides me with anything useful, I’ll share what I find out.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post
    God I hope I’m wrong, Louetta, and that this is nothing more than a correction that will soon play out. In the meantime, I going to continue shorting everything in sight .

    I have a cousin who worked for over 30 years on the AMEX and NYSE, and he has great contacts in the financial sector. He introduced me to someone who used to be the head of one of the exchanges - I won’t say which one to protect his identity. Tomorrow I’m going to send him an email to get his opinion. If he provides me with anything useful, I’ll share what I find out.
    I've sold some weak siblings (the PC version of weak sisters). I've resisted shorting because I fear this tariff business is just the President doing some sort of art of the deal routine, coming in with a wrecking ball hoping to force Xi to make a deal on intellectual property because his economy needs US trade. And it does. Some say if a deal is struck we are going up big time over night. A month ago I was thinking the idea was to announce a deal just before election day but its getting close. Anyway bought some of the preferreds recommended in Barrons last week with the cash I raised.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    ... I fear this tariff business is just the President doing some sort of art of the deal routine, coming in with a wrecking ball hoping to force Xi to make a deal on intellectual property because his economy needs US trade. ...
    I agree with you whole heartedly on that, but I think there may be more going on here. In particular, I think there is a lot of focus and concern over interest rates and bond yields. I saw some slight bullishness this morning, but the bears swooped in again in the afternoon and it became a day to short once again.

    ... Anyway bought some of the preferreds recommended in Barrons last week with the cash I raised.
    Well good luck as always. I hope you make a ton of money.

  4. #24
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    Looks like the market is going to open up today, so I will be looking for more long rebound plays. The good news is that rally yesterday was pretty broad based. Two up days in a row would be significant at this point. Let’s see if the bulls can beat back any attemp by the bears to wrest back control of the market. The bears have been successful at killing every rally so far. If we can start and hold a rally today, my short term bias may turn bullish.

  5. #25
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    Although the market finished up, it hit the top of its regression channel and quickly faded. I see no reason to become bullish in the short term or any term. I’ll scalp/day trade the bounces, but I’m not holding anything long right now.

  6. #26
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    Good news for longs for a change. The NASDAQ broke out of it’s regression channel today, which signals a reversal of the brutal downward trend that started at the beginning of October. I definitely have a bullish short term bias. I am still bearish for the mid and long term, pending furthers signs from the market. Just keep in mind that this reversal could be a short lived bounce if we are still in the midst of a longer term downward trend. I have attached an annotated daily chart of the NASDAQ to show you what is going on. One thing we can do is apply a Fibonacci retracement to the trend to see where would might expect pivots (back to a down trend), if a longer term downtrend is still in effect. Take a look at the chart.

    Daily NASDAQ chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/y3n4oaiyp8...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

  7. #27
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    Sentiment for week ending 11/9/18

    I have attached an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The market broke out of its steep, downward channel last week but then put in a somewhat indecisive bar on Friday, putting the brakes on the brief, but strong rally. While the steep descent seems to be over (for now), I’m not seeing anything that gives me a good feel as to where the market is headed in the short term (see my notes on the chart). My short term bias is therefore neutral. As for my mid and long term bias, I haven’t seen anything yet to convince me to change from being bearish, so I will continue to trade the bounces and short the drops. I don’t know any other way to consistently make money given this volatility. In general, buy and hold trading just isn’t working right now and if you try, you are likely to be punished. You might be lucky enough to find those few stocks that are showing strength in the midst of all the weakness, but finding them is tricky (and risky) business.

    Here are some stocks I will be watching for day trade entries early in the week:

    Short Candidates: ADMS, ARRY, CARB, NFX, WTW
    Long Candidates: ARWR, CVNA, MAXR, OZK, ROKU

    Remember to trade with the market not against it, i.e., don’t trade a short setup if the market is headed up. I also would be very careful about holding anything overnight, short or long, especially with earnings season starting up again. Always know when the next earnings date is for a position you plan to hold.

    Annotated Daily Chart for Nasdaq:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/4cnhtnbhlm...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Good luck in all your trading and investing.

  8. #28
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    Sentiment for week ending 11/16/18

    I have attached an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The market popped up and out of it’s short term consolidation on Wednesday, but the bears quickly struck back and drove the market right back down. As the bulls and bears keep battling it out, my short term sentiment remains neutral, and my longer term sentiment remains bearish. I will just continue to trade in the direction of the market on a day by day basis. I have no plans to hold anything right now, either short or long. The pickins’ are scant, but here are some stocks I will start the week watching for entries (Note: All of these long watchers are risky bounce plays and I won’t be playing any of them unless the direction of the market/futures is clearly up):

    Short Candidates: AMRS, IIVI
    Long Candidates: COTY, DPLO, ENDP, JELD, SPPI, ZAYO

    Annotated daily chart for NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/xzwi0eksuq...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Good luck with all your trading and investing.

  9. #29
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    Sentiment for week ending 11/23/18

    I have attached an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. Boy, I don’t know what to tell you this week. Market volatility has been pretty incredible in recent weeks and it is making it very difficult to discern any kind of short term trend. I plotted two different (very sloppy) regression channels to show how you could interpret the recent price action in two entirely different ways. For this reason, my short term bias remains neutral, and I believe the best way to trade the current market is day by day, trading with the direction of the futures. I monitor the NASDAQ (NQ) and S&P (ES) futures during the day to establish my trading bias.

    My long term bias remains bearish, and not just for technical reasons. Trade wars, looming political battles, disappointing earnings (especially in electronic components/commodities), rising interest rates & bond yields, and money rotation out of the market are all influencing my bias. I’m still on the fence as to whether we have entered a bear market or this is still just part of a major correction in the long term bull market. In any event, I don’t think the bearishness or volatility are over. At the very least, I would recommend extreme caution in taking on any buy and hold long positions right now. I know a lot of stocks that have done very well over the last few years look like bargains right now, but a lot of these stocks still have extremely high valuations, and an earnings miss will crush the share price. Choose wisely.

    As for stocks I will be watching at the beginning of the week, I consider many of them to be high risk, so I am reluctant to post them. Please keep in mind that I am an active day trader and I watch the futures minute by minute, so I am not recommending that anyone trade these stocks, especially not as swing trades. I just post them for informational purposes, and I do periodically post charts of my trades in the “Technical Trades Anyone” thread so you can see how I trade them. Here is a pretty thin list of a few stocks I will be watching for potential day trades at the start of the week:

    Short Candidates: NSP, ZS
    Long Candidates: IRBT, M

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/guqsz382ia...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Good luck in your trading and investing and have a great Thanksgiving!

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post
    Sentiment for week ending 11/23/18

    ... Big snip ...

    I know a lot of stocks that have done very well over the last few years look like bargains right now, but a lot of these stocks still have extremely high valuations, and an earnings miss will crush the share price. Choose wisely.

    ... 'Nuther big snip ...
    The Technical Trader column in this week's Barrons paints a possible picture that has AAPL bottoming in the mid-160s at which point he says "we would officially call Apple a bargain". That's about another 16% down.

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