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  1. #11
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    northern ohio
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    3,373

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    Put my toes into a little ALGN yesterday when it fell back below 320. (318.80) And yes, I'm holding my breath.

  2. #12
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    315

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    We’re getting that bounce today, Riverbabe, and I like the setup on ALGN. It looks to me like it could be a nice swing. I’m trading long like crazy today, trying to take advantage of the climate. If the market closes strong, I will hold several of my positions.

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    315

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    Update 2 to Sentiment for the week ending 10/19/2018

    Well, given this incredible volatility, I decided to do a second update. We got the bounce I was looking for today, and it was strong and broad-based. I had a number of winning trades, but I’m hoping for a little more bounce because the market closed so strongly I decided to swing several of my long positions. I’ll admit to being nervous about it given the panic and devastation of last week, but since I am a technical trader, I had to go with what the technicals told me and every indicator still seems to suggest short term bullishness. Let’s see what tomorrow brings.

  4. #14
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    315

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    Last update for this week, I promise. We’ll let it play out from here, and I will revisit it on next week’s update. We had a seesaw day with the market gapping up, fading, and then oscillating. For what it’s worth I closed my swing positions shortly after it started fading after the gap. I’m just too conservative to ride out another leg of a correction. There is definitely a war going on between the bears and the bulls right now. I think it is being driven by interest rate fears and indications that the Chinese economy may be starting to stagnate, but those are just guesses. Currently, both my short and mid term bias is neutral. I just can’t get a read on where it’s going. Gotta see more action.
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 10-17-2018 at 07:27 PM.

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    315

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    Sentiment for week ending 10/26/18

    Take a look at the annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. Well, the bears have won the battle for now. The indices attempted to mount a rally, but it only lasted one day before the bears came back and took over. There are bearish signs everywhere and after the Tuesday rally, I ended up shorting for the rest of week. I even shorted stocks that I held in my long term retirement account. This took some of the pain out of watching my long term positions take a beating.

    On a sidebar, here’s a little information that I hope can help you if you trade on a regular basis: Split your money into two separate accounts. Now, let’s say you have a stock in one account that you want to swing or hold long. You can counter trade it, i.e. short it, in your other account, so you can make money during any downturn. It’s a clever way of hedging that, IMHO, is much better than trying to use options. You can sell covered calls, but you really won’t make enough to cover the amount you’re losing while a stock pulls back. You can alternatively buy protective puts, but the cost of the puts will eat into your profits and raise your break even point. In addition, in both cases, you will potentially have to repeat the process over and over again depending on how long you want to hold your long stocks. By splitting your funds and counter trading, you can make enough on the stock while it’s pulling back to cover most of your losses in the long position. The only expenses will be your brokerage fees. It’s actually a much better alternative to averaging down. So what’s the catch? You need enough capital to be able to fund both accounts. If you want to day trade, with a minimum account balance requirement of $25,000, this means you will need at least $50,000. And BTW, you can’t do this in a single account. I am not aware of any brokers that will allow you to hold a long and short position for the same stock in the same account.

    Back to market sentiment, both my short and mid-term bias are still bearish. I continue to look to short the market. In addition to what the indices are saying, I just think that the general belief right now that interest rates will continue to rise are driving money out of the market and into alternative investments. Even long-term, when I look at the monthly and weekly charts for the indices and when I look at valuations, I am somewhat bearish. We’ve been in a bull market for nine years now, and, IMHO, we are way overdue for a bear market. For the sake of those who are deeply invested right now and for the sake of my retirement account, I hope I’m wrong, but I do wish I was totally in cash right row, including my retirement account.

    Annotated daily NNASDAQ chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/hhq7ddioba...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Here are some stocks I will be watching at the start of the week for continued weakness:

    AMD, ANSS, HP, IRMD, P, PYX, SFIX, SQ, TEAM, TJX, TWLO, VKTX

    Some of these are extended to the downside and I will only short them if the indices continue to show bearishness. I will be more than happy to switch to the long side if I see any indications of a bounce, but I am not optimistic about the market being able to sustain any kind of bounce right now.

    Good luck in your trading and investment.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,380

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    Good discussion, thank you.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    315

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    Sentiment for week ending 10/26/18 (Update 1)

    I have attached an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The action was interesting today as I shorted the early market and then scalp traded long for the rest of the day. If you look at the NASDAQ chart, you can see that the market seemed to be trying to either pivot or form a double bottom, hence the bounce. At this point, I am expecting the market to at least try to continue it’s upward momentum early in the day tomorrow, but I am still bearish in my longer term sentiments and I will not swing trade long in the current market. The next few days will tell us a lot more about the overall market direction.

    Annotated NASDAQ daily chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/9n00muve3i...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

  8. #18
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    Jun 2009
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    Earth (Mostly)
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    Sentiment for week ending 10/26/18 (Update 2)

    Wow! Redrum. Redrum. And to think I thought there might be a bounce early today. Yesterday was definitely no double bottom. Maybe the mistake I made was ignoring the initial drop in my regression channel. I should have used a vertical channel. I know this is really bad for longs, but there is money to be made if you’re willing to short. Hang on to your seats, because today told us this correction is not over by a long shot.

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
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    Sentiment for week ending 10/26/18

    Take a look at the annotated daily and monthly charts for the NASDAQ. I won’t bother discussing the Dow or S&P because they are similar. I’ll cut to the chase here and tell you that both my short and mid term biases are VERY bearish. I see no indication in the daily chart of any abatement in the bearish trend the market started in early October. As you can see in the daily chart, the downward regression channel is extremely steep. We’ve seen a few steep drops this year, but nothing this prolonged. So I looked at the monthly chart, and I really didn’t like what I saw. As you can see by my notes, we haven’t had a monthly candlestick this bearish since the last bear market in the early 2000s. Are we in a bear market again? I don’t honestly know, but I have to acknowledge that we could be. This is certainly the way a bear market would start. It’s not my intention to scare anyone, but my spidey senses are tingling and my long term bias is starting to become pretty bearish. At the very least, I would recommend extreme caution about buy and hold positions right now. As you can see in the monthly chart, as dramatic as this latest correction has been, there is ample room for more. I hope I’m wrong about this, because my retirement account has taken a beating just like everyone else. I’m grateful I pared down my long term holdings a few weeks ago when I started warning about the bearishness, but, to be honest, I wish I was totally in cash. I’m too old to ride out a bear market and a recovery, so I may end up taking a hit at some point and just bailing. We’ll see.

    Good luck with all your trading and investing.

    Daily NASDAQ chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/xssypkgesc...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Monthly NASDAQ chart:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/h8xba8idiw...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

  10. #20
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    2,380

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    Love the charts. Well, the fact that you post them, not what they say.

    Barrons has a very bearish article based on the TXN results, guidance and commentary of the CEO. The idea being TXN sells basic chips that go into everything and a slowdown in the demand for such is ominous news for the economy.

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