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I have 84 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #91
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    Sentiment for the week ending 3/8/19
    Short term bias: Bullish
    Long term bias: Bullish

    I have attached an annotated daily chart for the NASDAQ. The S&P and DOW are similar and I will not be including separate charts, but it is noteworthy that the DOW is testing the lower bounds of its regression channel, unlike the NASDAQ and S&P. The NASDAQ continues is slow ascent within a regression channel that appears to be tightening as market volatility continues to drop. My short term bias therefore remain bullish. Signs that there is still a lot of life left to this bullishness continue to pop up. The NASDAQ took out its second prior pivot high, and the NASDAQ is on the verge of a Golden Cross, following in the footsteps of both the S&P and DOW. My long term bias is also therefore bullish.

    Annotated Daily Chart for NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/5h7ibl8mjm...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I don’t have a lot of good setups for daytrading heading into the new week. My long watchers include several play-with-extreme-caution dead cat bounces. Hopefully, some more promising setups will develop heading into Tuesday and the rest of the week. Here are my start of the week watchers:

    Long: CNX, CRSP, DY, NTNX, TGTX, WTW
    Short: CLNY, CVNA

    Good luck in your trading and investing.

  2. #92
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    3/4/2019 Update
    Bear scat everywhere today. Lots of bearish engulfing bars. We could be getting ready for a correction. The Dow closed outside it’s regression channel and the S&P tested its channel. Be very careful entering any swing or buy&hold long positions here.

  3. #93
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    Oct 2003
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    Strange day. Lots of the usual suspects were up, FB, AMZN, INTC, the GOOGs, AAPL, NVDA. Nice recovery after the halfway mark (tho still down on the day of course).

  4. #94
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    Sentiment for the week ending 3/15/19
    Short term bias: Neutral
    Long term bias: Bullish

    I have attached two annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ. The first chart shows the index in relation to its short term regression channel. The second chart shows the index in relation to its Fibonacci Retracement levels. The S&P and DOW are showing similar patterns, so I will not be including separate charts for these indices. As you can see in chart one, the NASDAQ broke down out of its short term regression channel. There is no doubt at this point that the NASDAQ is in the middle of a retrace. The big question is how much of a retrace can we expect. I don’t know of anyone that has an accurate answer to that question. I know I certainly don’t. For that reason, my short term bias is neutral. In the short term, we could go either way from here. One thing we can do is look at the Fibonacci retrace levels to get an idea as to where the inflection points might occur and, more importantly, what they might mean for the longer term trend, which is currently bullish. If you’re a bull, you would ideally like to see the indices reverse here at the 24% level. That would be an extremely shallow retrace and a very strong reinforcement of a longer term bullish trend. If the indices continue down from here, however, we will still remain in longer term bullish territory as long as the 38% level holds. As you can see from the second chart, there was also some congestion (a pause) that occurred at this level on the way up, underscoring it’s importance. If the 38% level doesn’t hold, it doesn’t mean that all is lost for the bulls. Sometimes a bullish uptrend will retrace all the way to 62% before reversing. The area between 38% and 62%, however, is considered the danger zone for a trend reversal. For this reason, breaking the 38% level can sometimes trigger some panic selling. All we can do right now is watch and trade with the trend, and right now, while the short term trend is down, nothing has yet occurred that would give us reason to suspect that the longer term up trend is no longer intact. My long term bias therefore remains bullish.

    NASDAQ Annotated Daily Chart #1:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/yew1jv5apq...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    NASDAQ Annotated Daily 0Chart #2:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/7brvl4dta1...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I have a few stocks I will be watching early in the week for daytrading setups. These include:
    Long: AER*, EB*, GH, NTNX, REZI*, ZS, WAGE*, XON*
    Short: INGN, LGND, LTS

    * - Dangerous bounce plays. The setup would need to be just right.

    Good luck with your trading and investing.

  5. #95
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    Sentiment for the week ending 3/22/19
    Short term bias: Neutral
    Long term bias: Bullish

    I have attached annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and DOW. The reason for posting two charts is that there is currently a slight divergence in the two charts, with the DOW being less bullish than the NASDAQ. On the NASDAQ chart you can see that the index quickly took out the prior pivot high after a very shallow retrace. There is nothing here that doesn’t reinforce my long term bullish bias, and, for that reason, I remain bullish for the long term. On the shorter term time frames, there are a couple of warning signs that are worth paying attention to. As you can see in the DOW chart, the index has not yet taken out its prior pivot high. This represents a divergence from the S&P and NASDAQ, although the DOW may yet take out this pivot. There are also those pesky topping tails on the NASDAQ daily. Are we on the verge of another retrace? Is there perhaps some consolidation coming? I don’t honestly know, so my short term bias is neutral. I will be looking to gather more data this week to better delineate the current short term trend(s).

    Daily Annotated Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/si59i6nmbe...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    Daily Annotated Chart for the DOW:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/xb3vfjix5b...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

    There are a number of stocks I will be watching early in the week for day trading opportunities:
    Long: ACB, AXGN, COLD, DELL, ENLC, GSKY, QTT, TGTX, TWI, UNIT, YY
    Short: BBBY, ENPH, QEP, VER

    Good luck in your trading and investing

  6. #96
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post
    Sentiment for the week ending 3/22/19
    Short term bias: Neutral
    Long term bias: Bullish

    ....big snip....

    As you can see in the DOW chart, the index has not yet taken out its prior pivot high. This represents a divergence from the S&P and NASDAQ,

    ....big snip....
    Good analysis as usual.

    To what extent, if at all, is it valid in this kind of analysis to say, well, the problem with the Dow is Boeing which took a big hit (and is high priced in a price weighted index) for reasons not usually pertinent here and thus at this point we can (or should) discount the behavior of the Dow right here.

  7. #97
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    To what extent, if at all, is it valid in this kind of analysis to say, well, the problem with the Dow is Boeing which took a big hit (and is high priced in a price weighted index) for reasons not usually pertinent here and thus at this point we can (or should) discount the behavior of the Dow right here.
    Actually, that’s good deep dive analysis, Louetta. That could account for the divergence. The Dow is always the index in which a divergence is most likely to occur because it only contains 30 companies. So a really good or bad week by any company in the index can definitely skew overall results when you are comparing the indices. Excellent observation.

  8. #98
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    Sentiment for the week ending 3/29/19
    Short term bias: Bearish
    Long term bias: Bullish

    I have attached annotated daily charts for the NASDAQ and DOW. The divergence between the DOW and NASDAQ/S&P continues, although all three indices are showing signs of bearishness. The closing bar on all three indices, just by itself, is enough to portend more downside. This wide range red bar with a close at the LOD and a small topping tail is very bearish, and, by itself, is enough to change my short term bias to bearish. It was very difficult to fit a regression channel to the NASDAQ. I did my best, but ended up with a sloppy channel in which the upside standard deviation was significantly smaller than the downside. To me, this suggests downside pressure with a likelihood of increased volatility. All of this is not yet enough to change my longer term bias to bearish, but I am expecting some sort of correction in the coming days. We will just have to watch the pivot points and Fibonacci retrace levels to see if this short term bearishness signals something more long term. In any event, I would not recommend buying into any swing or buy and hold positions right now.

    Annotated Daily Chart for the NASDAQ:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/i5nxdtott9...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    Annotated Daily Chart for the DOW:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/rtdbuqh25h...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

    I actually have quite a long watch list going into the start of the week, but they are all possible short day or swing trades. Here are some of the better potential setups:

    Long: (none)
    Short: APTV, ARWR, CHGG, CNO, EC, JEF, MUR, PTEN, RUN, SKX, W

    There is definitely money to be made on the short side right now.

    Good luck in all your trading and investing.

  9. #99
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    Interesting looking at yield curve data. Last week (3/18-22) the 1, 2 and 3 month treasury rates each went higher while the 3-10 year rates all fell by at least $.17 so the inversion is now no longer just a little squiggle in the middle somewhere.

    https://www.treasury.gov/resource-ce...spx?data=yield

  10. #100
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    And with the Fed saying they were done with rate hikes for 2019, the recession talks are back on. In fact, there is even some talk that economic data is so grim, rate cuts are likely before the end of the year. In the reading I have done, however, I have come across a different perspective that says that in the post financial-crisis era, inversions without a recession are far more likely. This is because 10 year bond time premiums have virtually disappeared, so the gap between 10 year and 3 month yields have become intrinsically smaller, making inversions much more likely. The other thing to consider is that inversions aren’t necessarily very good predictors of imminent recessions. The last time, in 2007, it took two years before the recession came. Right now, I am just cautious and not ready to panic. Earnings continue to be very good across the board. Having said that, I am starting to see a lot of bear scat again, so my finger is getting a hair closer to the dump all button, especially since I am protecting some pretty healthy gains since I went on my December buying spree. I still believe in all the companies I bought for the long term, but as always, I don’t want to weather a major correction in my positions ... unless I can offset it by making some spectacular gains by short term shorting. Selling and then reconstructing positions after a correction is tricky business.

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