Bluewolf’s Weekly Market Sentiment

[BlueWolf]

I’m starting this thread to create a home for my weekly market sentiment, which I had previously been posting under the Technical Trades Anyone thread. I will continue to use that thread to post short to mid term technical trading ideas.

[BlueWolf]

Sentiment for week ending 9/28/2018

Take a look at my annotated daily charts for the Dow and the NASDAQ. As you can see on the NASDAQ chart, this index has been in a sideways trend over the last two weeks, and ended ominously ended with a bearish engulfing bar. In contrast, the Dow (and to a lesser extant the S&P) had a very bullish week, but is extremely extended from its short term moving averages, which portends an imminent small pullback or sideways consolidation. My overall bias for the short term, i.e. the coming week, is therefore neutral to bearish. My longer term bias remains bullish as all of the indices continue to trade in up trends within bullish regression channels. I wouldn’t suggest bullish swing trades to start the week unless we get a clear bullish signal during the day, e.g. taking out the prior bar’s high. Be wary of any gap up at the open as an indicator of things to come because we’ve had more than a few fades over the last couple of weeks, at least in the NASDAQ.

As for individual stocks, I have a short list of watchers to start the week including:
ACXM, BMA, HIIQ, MED, TLYS, UBNT, and YNDX.

Good luck with your trading and investments.

Daily NASDAQ chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/s8jpbobqjc...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

Daily Dow chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5n0cs1nq98...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[Louetta]

Cool......

[BlueWolf]

Sentiment for week ending 10/5/2018

Take a look at my annotated daily charts for the Dow and the NASDAQ. As you can see on the NASDAQ chart, this index continues to trend sideways although it is treading dangerously close to the bottom of its regression channel and is showing lots of topping tails. The Dow had a down week, and is also showing a few topping tails. My short term bias for the coming week therefore remains neutral to bearish. My longer term bias remains bullish as all of the indices are still trading within their uptrend channels. In other words, it’s Probably not a good time to swing trade long or enter any new long term buy and hold trades, but it’s not time to push the sell button yet either.

As for individual stocks, I don’t have a lot I like to start the week, but I am not really looking for any swing trades right now, concentrating mostly on day trades. Some of the stocks I will start the week watching include:
AAXN, CELG, CGNX, FNKO, HIIQ, NEOG, SFIX, TLRY

Good luck with your trading and investments.

Daily NASDAQ chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kyhj1lkqjj...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Daily Dow chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/71m1ldszr1...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Sentiment for the week ending 10/12/18

Take a look at my annotated charts for the NASDAQ and the S&P. Both indices broke out of their regression channels indicating a change in trend. The last bars for both indices did exhibit significant bottoming tails, which suggest we might see a bounce early in the week. My (very) short term bias is therefore modestly bullish, but my longer term bias is now bearish. I do not think this is a good time to enter long swing or buy and hold trades. If you’re patient, there will be a time to buy, but it’s not now, IMHO.

Here is a list of stocks I will be watching:
ALRM, CGNX, CLDR, CTRL, GDDY, ICPT, ILMN, LXFT, SERV, SGH

For some I will be looking for a bounce early in the week. For others I will be looking for a short entry, perhaps following a bounce.

NASDAQ Daily Chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/xiifxen1dz...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

S&P Daily Chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/l9ovx0fdgs...%20AM.jpg?dl=0

[BlueWolf]

Sentiment for the week ending 10/19/2018

Take a look at my daily annotated chart for the NASDAQ. I didn’t bother doing the S&P or Dow because they’re very similar. Let me start by stating the obvious, the market destroyed its up trend and made a major correction last week. The real question, therefore, is where do we go from here. As you can see from the chart, the correction seemed to bounce off the 62% Fibonacci level, and the index is very extended from its short term moving averages. We got a little bit of a bounce on Friday, but the market did start to fade in the afternoon. Still, I would expect to see a little more of a bounce in the near term. My short term bias, therefore, is bullish. My longer term bias is neutral. I’d like to see a couple of pivots before I decide whether we are going to see a new uptrend or if we are entering a more significant downtrend. I am definitely going to be looking for long trades on Monday, especially since I saw a lot of bottoming patterns in individual stocks. I will be very cautious, however, about swing trades and even more cautious about buy and hold trades. Keep in mind that the valuations for many companies, even after this correction, are very inflated. It would only take a little bit of bad economic news or a few bad earnings to push the market even more to the downside, IMHO.

I have compiled a list of stocks that you might watch for long entries early in the week. These are all bounce plays that, IMHO, have a high likelihood of regaining some ground if the market rebounds.

ALGN, ANET, ANSS, CGNX, CLDR, DOCU, GDDY, SFIX, TDOC, TEAM

Daily NASDAQ chart:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jedndzzn3x...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

Good luck in your trading and investing.

[mrmarket]

Love your thoughts Wolfman!

[BlueWolf]

Thank you, Mr. Market, and I love your picks and your web site.

[Louetta]

Love your thoughts Wolfman!

Well said, Large Parson. Er, Person.

[BlueWolf]

Update to Sentiment for the week ending 10/19/2018

Well, we started to get a little bounce today, but it faded. The indices are therefore starting to tread sideways, which is not a good thing following last week’s sell off. A bounce here doesn’t imply what the new mid term term trend will be (we will still need to form a couple of pivots to tell that), but continued sideways trendings portends more bearishness to come, IMHO. Stay tuned.