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I have 84 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #11
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    Good stuff. Stop me if I'm becoming redundant.

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    Good stuff. Stop me if I'm becoming redundant.
    Thank you, Louetta. The way my life has been going the last several years, I doubt that nice comments will ever become redundant.

  3. #13
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    Well, yesterday I was feeling good about my ICPT entry, but it retraced today. I think itís still basing sideways, but I also still think it will break out. In any event, Iím glad I took a half position because Iím notoriously impatient about my swing trades. At least Iíve got a good tight area around which to put a stop (below Fridayís low of 68.5). I wonít trust it if it break that sideways band by much. TTD is doing better today. Gotta keep that momentum going, though.

  4. #14
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    If you are not already in it, one of Mr. Marketís picks, NVR, is worth watching here. I like the way NVR is consolidating sideways. Since early February, itís been trading in a range between about 3250 and 2800. The nice thing about trading range bound stocks, is that itís fairly obvious where you want to put your stop. That makes the risk reward easy to determine. Letís say I decided buy here around 3100 (BTW, I would never buy here because a bearish engulfing bar is forming, although you always need to wait until the end of day when youíre looking at a daily chart). A reasonable target would be a gap fill around 3570. Hence the risk reward would be 3570-3100/3100-2800 or about 1.6:1. Not the greatest risk reward, to be honest. If you traded that risk reward, you need to ensure that slightly more than two out of every three trades go your way. The way to play range bound stocks, is to try and get an entry near the bottom of the range, i.e. closer to 2800. Letís say you got an entry around 2850. Now your RR is 14:1, i.e. you only have to be right on about one out of 15 trades to basically breakeven. OK, but hereís the rub. This stock looks like it is now basing sideways. It could retrace back to 2800 or thereabouts, but it could also just continue basing sideways and then break out to the upside. This basing started around April 5. If you base your play on that, the stop would be below 3075. Using the same target, if you bought at the top of the base, 3224, your RR is about 2.3:1. If you buy near the bottom of the base, say 3100, the RR becomes 18.8:1. So whatís the play? Hereís the way I would play it. I would wait for a bounce off the bottom of the base and then buy on a green bar, i.e. a reversal, coming off that bottom. If it does rise all the way to 3570, you can always sell off some of the position and hold the rest hoping for the 15% gain that Mr. market is so good at finding. His target is 4036.

    Hope you donít mind the long winded post, but I enjoy sharing my thoughts on trades. Years ago I was a fairly active day trader, something I was forced into because of my health. I didnít have a lot of capital to invest though, so it was hard to generate sufficient revenue. To make a long story short, I went back into the software business working out of my home and did very well. Now I am semi retired and starting to get back into trading. I kind of prefer swing trading and long-term holds these days. I hope these analyses help and give you some ideas. Canít promise how long Iíll be posting, but for now, Iím happy to share. Of course, if all my trades go against me, I wonít be as inclined to share. 🙂 good luck in your trading adventures.

    P.S. I love Mr. Marketís picks. His system is top notch. The only thing I do differently sometimes is wait for an entry if I donít think the technicals look good at the time he makes a recommendation. Iíve missed out on a couple of his trades because of that, but I am cautious with my capital, so I gotta be me.

  5. #15
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    BlueWolf; I am chiming in to reiterate how much I appreciate you sharing your technical take and knowledge. For me your recent posts have added a fresh additional dimension to the community here that I value and am enjoying.

    Your NVR post supports the much less technical plays i have been enjoying with NVR. (I have had a few NVR trades over the past few months and when it dips to the 2900 level (setting alerts <3000 as it can move fast) I have been buying as I am confident in the rebound back to the 3100-3200. I thank Mr. Market for the pick as it is indeed top notch; and while I usually buy and hold Mr. Market picks, NVR has been range bound and I have been enjoying trading that range.

    Keep up the great technical work. It is truly appreciated by many here.
    -Adam
    Old Hippy & Mortgage Pro

  6. #16
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    Thank you tiedyed1.

  7. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlueWolf View Post

    ...snip...

    Hope you donít mind the long winded post,

    ...snip...
    That's OK, we're used to Ernie.

  8. #18
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    That's OK, we're used to Ernie.
    LOL. Yes we are - and love it!

  9. #19
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    Well hereís an example of waiting for a confirmation bar. NVR broke itís sideways consolidation today, not to mention the bearish engulfing bar yesterday. No entry here. That sideways base is broken. Just have to wait and see what it does from here. Will it drop back to the bottom of the Feb trading range? Maybe. Once again, weíd have to wait for a reversal bar confirmation before entering. If it breaks that trading range there is literally no support beneath it, and if youíre in it at that point, I hate to say it, but you could be married to it for a long time. Man, this is a whippy market.

  10. #20
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    ICPT is basing, so I am comfortable sitting in that, but TTD is hinting at a reversal right at the top of a regression channel, so I took 1/2 my position off the table today and locked in about 5% profit on that 1/2, i.e. 2.5% overall baring a gap down. I still think it has room to run and I like the fundamentals, so Iíll let the other half ride with a stop at my entry. This way, Iíve locked in a profitable trade although it wonít be at the 10-15% I hoped for. I wish I could figure out a way to post a chart so I could show you the regression channel I am worried about. If it is channel bound, it could drop all the way back to the 45-46 area. The best thing for it to do now is base sideways if it doesnít resume moving upward. I have several other positions I am in and several I am looking at that I may post next week if there is any interest.

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