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I have 80 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #121
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    Yesterday was a fairly good day for trading long, but today was a monster. The market shot up this morning and then based sideways this afternoon, refusing to give back its gains. What was particularly impressive was the breath of gains. You could have just about thrown a dart at a dart stock board today and picked winners. I have attached a daily chart for the Dow. I refitted a regression channel, but I couldnít get a great fit, so I am a little wary. Still, that bar today was powerful, even more powerful than Mondayís bar because it decisively broke the downward/sideways momentum. I know I will be bullishly biased going into Monday. Will there be follow through? Will the current retrace be shallow like all the other recent ones? Weíll see. By reading the charts youíre tilting the odds in your favor, but the market can surprise, and news always rules. The way I look at it, chart reading is just a way of gauging the reaction to the news that really drives the market. Hope everyone has a great weekend. Good luck with your trading.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/v75uam2eho...%20PM.jpg?dl=0

  2. #122
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    Great leaping balls of red bars, Batman. The market gapped down hard today at the open. I assume itís because of the latest threats of tariffs, but who knows. All I know is that I canít trade this mess, so Iím sitting on my hand right now. I hate trying to day trade gaps at the open. Not my style. I just need to be patient, which is, unfortunately, not always my strongest suit, but Iím Pretty sure there will be a lot of scalp bounce (long) plays later today. This is still a tricky market to play and itís very difficult to swing trade, but iím doing well enough day trading, and, honestly, it feels good to be flat at the end of each day. Eventually, there might be some good opportunities to pick up some buy and hold positions, depending on how this correction plays out. The problem is still, however, that we are overdue for a sizable correction so it might be easy to be fooled about when and where we will get a true, sustainable reversal to the upside. Itís already fooled me once, but fortunately I wasnít holding anything overnight. Iíll try and post some charts later, after I see how today plays out. Good luck all in your trading.

  3. #123
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    I was right about the bounce plays, they were everywhere and they started much earlier than I expected. It turned out to be a great day for scalping. Iím already done for the day. A couple Chinese stocks, HUYA and IQ, made for great day trading off bounces. BILI didnít work quite as well. I actually like both IQ and HUYA for the long term, and I held IQ for a while in my retirement account, but I want the volatility in both to shake out before I think about re-entering. There is always a lot of volatility in IPOs as investors struggle to determine their value, but it looks like they are both starting to settle down a little after their meteoric rises. Feels good to have survived another day.

  4. #124
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    On second thought...
    Last edited by Louetta; 07-11-2018 at 06:48 PM. Reason: Re-group

  5. #125
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    Hi Louetta,

    I saw your original post, and Iíll try and answer your question about why I think we might be in for a deeper correction. I have enclosed the chart on a monthly scale for the Dow to illustrate what Iím talking about. If you look at the chart, you can see that weíve been in a bull market since early 2009. In fact, itís been an unusually strong bull market, with just two bullish 38% retraces. Since the last leg up, however, the deepest retrace is the current one at about 23%. Thatís too shallow for a significant retrace, IMHO. I think weíre due for deeper retrace. If you really want to get scary, and you believe in Elliot waves, we could be in the fifth segment of a bullish pattern and the next major change would therefore be into a bear market. Does that mean I think weíre headed into a bear market right now? No, not at all. Itís possible this 23% retrace will hold and the market will just head back up on itís merry little way, putting off the real trouble for another day. In fact, the economy seems too strong to justify a bear market in the near future. As long as the market stays at a 38% retrace or smaller, we could remain bullish for quite some time. The problem is, we havenít had a retrace greater than 38% since 2008, but we had two 62% or greater retraces in the five years before that. Granted these events were driven by news, but a 9 year run without a single retrace greater than 38%, which is a significant Fibonacci level, seems a little too good to be true. Of course, past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior, but sometimes it pays to be a little cautious.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/j5zynvyyvt...%20PM.jpg?dl=0
    Last edited by BlueWolf; 07-12-2018 at 11:33 AM.

  6. #126
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    Thanks for your response, BlueWolf. I fear I cannot add much. I do believe that as long as earnings continue strong we are safe from anything major happening to the overall markets. There will be plenty of worries like tariffs, the yield curve, inflation ... that will spook the markets as we have recently seen and make technical trading tough.

    Some folks I talk to speak of rotating corrections, e.g. the significant deterioration this year in XLF and XLI while SPY and QQQ hang in or go up. They figure this sort of thing will allow things to correct when needed without croaking us.

    I always enjoy telling people I first became interested in the markets when I entered high school. The NASDAQ was at 5000. By the time I graduated it was at 1600. I turned 30 before it got back to 5000. So yes, retracements are out there.

  7. #127
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    If we get another 12 year retracement, a lot of us seniors may run out of $$ before we check out.

    ----------------billy

  8. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by billyjoe View Post
    If we get another 12 year retracement, a lot of us seniors may run out of $$ before we check out.

    ----------------billy
    This time methinks the 5000 (or 7000) is based on something.

  9. #129
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    Another incredibly bullish day that actually negated everything that happened yesterday. The market wants to be bullish, but it spooks easily, so if you want to buy and hold you probably need to be prepared for at least a little whiplash. In any event, itís a good day trading environment, although trading these gaps at the open can be difficult. Letís see what tomorrow brings.

  10. #130
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    This time methinks the 5000 (or 7000) is based on something.
    Good point, Louetta. I'm trying to be ready should there be a major correction. NASDAQ does seem to be on rather firm footing this time.

    ---------------billy

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