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I have 23 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1

    Default QLYS ==> The Tank Tiger winner

    Fifty years ago, the Rolling Stones wrote about getting people off of their cloud. Today, it was probably very prophetic.



    I live in an apartment on the ninety-ninth floor of my block
    And I sit at home looking out the window imagining the world has stopped
    Then in flies a guy who's all dressed up like a Union Jack
    And says, I've won five pounds if I have his kind of detergent pack

    I said, Hey! You! Get off of my cloud Hey! You! Get off of my cloud
    Hey! You! Get off of my cloud
    Don't hang around 'cause two's a crowd n my cloud, baby

    The telephone is ringing I say, "Hi, it's me. Who is it there on the line?"
    A voice says, "Hi, hello, how are you, well, I guess I'm doin' fine"
    He says, "It's three a.m., there's too much noise don't you people ever wanna go to bed?
    Just 'cause you feel so good, do you have to drive me out of my head?"

    I said, Hey! You! Get off of my cloud
    Hey! You! Get off of my cloud
    Hey! You! Get off of my cloud
    Don't hang around 'cause two's a crowd
    On my cloud baby

    Today, all of our computing is being done on the cloud. As Mick alluded to, it’s a busy place up there. Do we really want all of that intrusion in our cloud? Of course not! Hey! You! Get off of my cloud! Well, maybe you need a little help.

    Yesterday, I bought stock in Qualys, Inc. (QLYS) at 52.36. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 60.46. Here’s why I like QLYS:

    First of all, it all starts with the chart.



    Look at this thing. Talk about get off of my cloud. This stock is going through the clouds! This stock is up 172% in the last 12 months. That’s better than 14% per month! Cheese and bread!

    Alright, I get it, its PE is at 64. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ may be gambling a little, especially because earnings are coming out on Monday, May 4th. More on that later…here’s a little bit about what this company does.

    Drivers for cloud solutions include the need to innovate, simplify and cut costs. Users say a key benefit cloud-based security is no need to deploy equipment or software. The cloud provider furnishes and hosts everything in secure data centers. This arrangement lets your business avoid capital expenses and to control ongoing costs. But…how do you protect your data if you’re not sitting on it? You need cloud security, that’s how. As the cloud use grows, naturally there’s going to be more of a need for cloud security.

    Qualys, Inc. provides cloud security and compliance solutions in the United States and internationally. The company offers QualysGuard cloud suite of solutions, such as Vulnerability Management, Policy Compliance, PCI Compliance, Web Application Scanning, Malware Detection Service, Web Application Firewall, and Qualys SECURE Seal. Its integrated suite of security and compliance solutions delivered on its QualysGuard Cloud Platform enables customers to identify their IT assets, collect and analyze large amounts of IT security data, discover and prioritize vulnerabilities, recommend remediation actions, and verify the implementation of such actions. It also provides QualysGuard core services, including asset tagging and management, reporting and dashboards, questionnaires and collaboration, remediation and workflow, big data correlation and analytics engine, and alerts and notifications, which enable integrated workflows, management and real-time analysis, and reporting across IT security and compliance solutions. In addition, the company offers QualysGuard cloud infrastructure services that include the data, data processing capabilities, software and hardware infrastructure, and infrastructure management capabilities. Qualys, Inc. markets and sells its IT security and compliance solutions to customers directly through its sales teams, as well as indirectly through its network of channel partners, such as security consulting organizations, managed service providers, and value added resellers. It serves enterprises, government entities, and small and medium-sized businesses in various industries, including education, financial services, government, healthcare, insurance, manufacturing, media, retail, technology, and utilities. The company was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.

    IT infrastructures are more complex and globally-distributed today than ever before, as organizations of all sizes increasingly rely upon myriad interconnected information systems and related IT assets, such as servers, databases, web applications, routers, switches, desktops, laptops, other physical and virtual infrastructure, and numerous external networks and cloud services. In this environment, new and evolving technologies intended to improve organizations’ operations can also increase vulnerability to cyber attacks, which can expose sensitive data, damage IT and physical infrastructures, and result in serious financial or reputational consequences. In addition, the rapidly increasing amount of data and devices in IT environments makes it more difficult to identify and remediate vulnerabilities in a timely manner. The predominant approach to IT security has been to implement multiple disparate security products that can be costly and difficult to deploy, integrate and manage and may not adequately protect organizations. As a result, there is a large and growing opportunity for comprehensive cloud security and compliance solutions.

    The newly-formed Qualys Malware and Vulnerability Research Lab discovered the "GHOST" vulnerability on Linux and released a security advisory on January 27, 2015. GHOST is a high-severity vulnerability found in the Linux GNU C Library (glibc) that allows attackers to remotely take control of an entire system without having any prior knowledge of system credentials. Qualys also added detection to this vulnerability for customers to scan their IT systems and track remediation progress.

    Here’s where it really gets interesting. On April 21st, QLSY announced its popular Qualys Continuous Monitoring (CM) solution for the perimeter now includes internal monitoring capabilities, enabling organizations to proactively monitor and get real-time alerts for critical internal IT assets such as desktops, servers and other devices. This expansion enables customers to have the most comprehensive and up-to-date view of their entire organization to proactively identify potential threats, while accelerating incident response time. It’s like having a video camera in the convenience store watching the robberies as they occur!

    Today's cyber attacks are often a result of cyber criminals scanning and attacking networks on a continuous basis, coupled with an event-driven approach to monitoring an organization's perimeter. As a result, vulnerable machines can be exploited within hours with toxic combinations of scenarios that can lead to compromises in their IT environments such as zero-days and phishing scams, which can instantly expose an organization's data. Qualys Continuous Monitoring provides a real-time view of an entire organization, and immediately notifies the IT staff as changes are detected so they can take appropriate action.

    Philippe Courtot, Chairman and CEO for Qualys, Inc: "Our Continuous Monitoring solution helps customers proactively monitor, identify and alert them to unexpected changes in all their critical IT assets before they turn into breaches."

    Built on the world's leading cloud security and compliance platform, Qualys Continuous Monitoring requires no special hardware and can be set up with a few simple clicks. A user simply needs to identify the host or hosts that need to be monitored, who to alert when states change, and what that change might be. The solution complements the speed of deployment, unparalleled scalability, and accuracy of Qualys Vulnerability Management. This is really cool and I see an explosive growth for this tool for any company that operates in the cloud, which is just about every company that uses a computer.

    Qualys has over 7,700 customers in more than 100 countries. Cybersecurity has been big news in recent months as all of the big companies are getting hacked. CEO’s of all of the other big companies don’t want to end up like Sony and get hacked and be all faceful when people read all of their porno emails. I am sure they told their CIO’s to spend as much money as they can to prevent from getting their cloud hacked. The company added over 1,000 customers to end the year with 7,700 active customers. Imagine how many they added last quarter? They are just crushing it. The testimonials from satisfied customers are really impressive. You can hear them on the company website.

    Last year’s earnings were awesome. For the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2014. For the quarter, the Company reported record revenues of $36.6 million, GAAP net income of $25.9 million, non-GAAP net income of $5.6 million, adjusted EBITDA of $10.7 million, GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.69 and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.15. For the full year ended December 31, 2014, the Company reported revenues of $133.6 million, GAAP net income of $30.2 million, non-GAAP net income of $17.1 million, adjusted EBITDA of $31.7 million, GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.81 and non-GAAP earnings per diluted share of $0.46.

    Historically, QLYS has experienced significant revenue growth from existing customers as they renew and purchase additional subscriptions. Revenues from customers existing at or prior to December 31,
    2011 grew $7.8 million to $84.0 million during 2012. The growth is ridiculous.

    Now, results are coming out after the close on Monday, May 4th. ANAL-ysts see profit rising 120% to 11 cents a share. This would be the third triple-digit gain in five quarters. Sales are slated to grow 25% to $38 million. Top-line growth accelerated for four straight quarters, helped by new services. Its full-year earnings are expected to rise 15% to 53 cents a share. Profit for 2016 is slated to climb 30% to 69 cents a share. What’s ridiculous about all of this is that for the last 4 quarters, QLYS has destroyed the ANAL-ysts projections by 66.70%, 83.30%, 66.70%, and 66.70%. One would think that they would have caught on by now. All of the other cloud security companies crushed earnings estimates. QLYS earned 15 cents per share in each of the last two quarters. Why do the ANAL-ysts thing they will only make 11 cents in this quarter??? I am going to be laughing like a hyena Monday afternoon.

    Philippe Courtot, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Qualys, said, "We ended 2014 on a high note, outperforming our expectations across all of our reported metrics and delivering 24 percent revenue growth. We added over 1,000 new customers throughout 2014, finishing the year with 7,700 active customers, while also significantly increasing revenues from our existing customers. In today's increasingly challenging threat environment, companies are recognizing the advantages of a cloud delivery model that provides continuous integrated security solutions at a lower cost of ownership. These results clearly underscore the unique capabilities of our cloud security and compliance platform, the scalability of our go-to-market model and our accelerated growth fueled by the continued adoption of our existing solutions and the new offerings we are launching in 2015."

    The world loves these guys. The boss got some award that is supposed to be really important. He was running around like Ric Flair saying “Woooooo!”

    "Philippe Courtot was chosen for this year's CSA Leadership Award for his industry vision and dedication to helping companies improve their IT security and compliance postures," said Jim Reavis, CEO of CSA. "Philippe's passion for resolving the problems of cloud security has had a profound impact not only on Qualys' customers, but the industry as a whole. His early understanding of emerging cyber threats has redefined how companies think about security."

    As Chairman and CEO of Qualys, Philippe has been instrumental in building one of most widely deployed information security and compliance cloud solution in the world with over 7,700 customers. He has also worked to drive initiatives that encourage collaboration within the IT security community. Courtot is a co-founder of the CSO Interchange, which provides a forum for sharing information in the security industry. He is also a member of the board of directors for StopBadware.org, and in 2012, he launched the Trustworthy Internet Movement, a nonprofit, vendor-neutral organization committed to resolving the problems of Internet security, privacy and reliability.

    "I am deeply honored to receive this award from the Cloud Security Alliance, an organization committed to defining and evangelizing best practices for providing security assurance within cloud computing," said Philippe Courtot, CEO of Qualys, Inc. "CSA has built an impressive organization with 76 chapters worldwide and 48,000 members, and its security frameworks are becoming widely adopted with key elements to ensure that we are building security into the fabric of cloud computing."

    Bows and flows of angel hair
    And ice cream castles in the air
    And feather canyons everywhere
    I've looked at clouds that way
    But now they only block the sun
    They rain and snow on everyone
    So many things I would have done
    But clouds got in my way

    I've looked at clouds from both sides now
    From up and down and still somehow
    It's cloud's illusions I recall
    I really don't know clouds at all

    Judy Collins may not have known clouds, and cloud computing didn’t exist back then. But it does now, and it’s gonna be makin me mo money mo money mo money!

    I am HUGE!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$
    Last edited by mrmarket; 06-03-2015 at 11:22 AM.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Hamilton MA
    Posts
    1,947

    Default

    Nice write-up. Good luck, L.P.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    NJ
    Posts
    565

    Default

    Terrific narrative Mr. Market.
    While you have big cojones they are floating in the clouds today as the stock price is up 5% before the open and earnings are not until after the bell today!

    I like the pick but am going to hope for an opportunity after earnings (AH today).
    If not I will be watching you and QLYS riding sky high for a quick 15%.

    Enjoy the ride!

  4. #4

    Default

    I'm feeling risky. Let's do it.

    Let's go HUGE L.P

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2014
    Location
    Arkansas
    Posts
    252

    Default

    Really nice 12 month chart. I like this one.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,745

    Default

    Nice writeup and great pick, $$MM!!! I'm in with you at 53.3. Now let's see those sky-high earnings numbers so we can sell this one at 60 tomorrow! (a timely pick for this frothy market, I must say)

  7. #7

    Default

    Getting waxed in After-Hours trading. Yikes -- down 24%.
    Last edited by bigtruck; 05-04-2015 at 04:15 PM. Reason: Update

  8. #8

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by bigtruck View Post
    Getting waxed in After-Hours trading. Yikes -- down 24%.
    They sandbagged their guidance. I don't see anything wrong with the earnings at all.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmarket View Post
    They sandbagged their guidance. I don't see anything wrong with the earnings at all.
    I don't see anything wrong with them either HUGE one. Earnings have been infuriating this year to say the least...

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Location
    Wisconsin
    Posts
    534

    Default

    Now that earnings have passed this is a great buy at a 30% discount.

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