Stocks for the Long Term

[Louetta]

I've been staring at ETSY data for the last 1/2 hour and really can't convince myself it's a buy. It's a loverly idea but the downward trend in the price has been so severe and I can't quite see a reason for a turnaround. Presumably they'd have to beat their guidance which is 33% or so for revenue. That's a healthy increase as it is. Methinks there's better candidates but I do keep seeing people say that after the sell-off this is a good entry point. I thought the same thing with RVLV (and CRON).

[BlueWolf]

I've been staring at ETSY data for the last 1/2 hour and really can't convince myself it's a buy. It's a loverly idea but the downward trend in the price has been so severe and I can't quite see a reason for a turnaround. Presumably they'd have to beat their guidance which is 33% or so for revenue. That's a healthy increase as it is. Methinks there's better candidates but I do keep seeing people say that after the sell-off this is a good entry point. I thought the same thing with RVLV (and CRON).

I really liked RVLV, and still do to some extent even though they’re not on my LT watch list right now. I didn’t like the way it was trending, however, and closed my position. I’m interested on ETSY for the potential. They’re revenue story has been exceptional. They got punished in August and then again at the end of November. The reasons for the August hit were a little subtle, but the October hit was because of a drop in quarterly revenue. Still, for the full year, revenue is expected to grow 30+% YoY, and their forward guidance is still strong. I agree that the trend doesn’t look that great here for an entry, but I do think it is becoming fairly valued, which for a growth stock, is compelling (usually they are somewhat overvalued). I’m lousy at calling bottoms, but I will keep an eye on this one and if it starts trending up, I might jump in.

[BlueWolf]

I opened a position in DDOG today. This is a recent IPO, so it’s speculative, but I like the product and their growth story. They doubled revenue from 2017 to 2018, and they’re on track to increase revenue by another 50% this year. The primary risk here is that they’re in a very competitive space. I thought I’d take a shot, although my track record for recent IPOs hasn’t been too good. ☹️

Here are my current holdings plus my long term watchlist.

Current LT positions:
AAPL, AAXN, ABMD, AMZN, APPN, AYX, BIDU, CGNX, DDOG, DOCU,EDIT,EEFT, EPAM, ESTC, FB, FICO, GH, INSP, ISRG,LYV, MA, MDB,MELI,MTCH,NTNX, NVCR, NVDA, OKTA, OLLI, PANW, ROKU, SFIX, SHOP, SMAR, TDOC, TEAM, TREX, TTD, TTWO, TWLO, VEEV, WIX, ZEN, ZM, ZS

Current LT Candidates:
ADSK, AMT, APPF, BRK/B, CRM, CRSP, ETSY, GOOG, HUBS, KNSL, LITE, LOB, LOPE, MASI, MSFT, NEE, NOW, PYPL, QTWO, RGEN, SNPS, SPLK, WD, WDAY, WORK

1. Underlined = I have previously provided a write up in this thread
2. Bold - New Stock

[Louetta]

Thank you for the update. Good day for your stuff. DDOG doing well. Even RVLV is up today though I can't see any news.

[Louetta]

Ooooo! Cramer just said buy RVLV now!

[billyjoe]

My long term list: CE, MA, ABR, AMZN, PMT, ECL, FAX, CLF. Some are for long term dividend accumulation rather than price appreciation as divs. are all being reinvested.

----------------Billy

[Louetta]

FAX is very interesting, Billy. I certainly don't have anything like it. Reasonable entry point. Have to start paying more attention to Asian Squawk Box.

[BlueWolf]

Ooooo! Cramer just said buy RVLV now!

I closed my RVLV position a while back. I came to the conclusion it was too early for that one. Since I closed it, it has dropped an additional $6+ or about 28%. I like what the company is doing and still see a lot of potential there, but IPOs are notoriously difficult to time as far as entries go. Maybe I should add it back to my LT watch list.

[Louetta]

I closed my RVLV position a while back. I came to the conclusion it was too early for that one. Since I closed it, it has dropped an additional $6+ or about 28%. I like what the company is doing and still see a lot of potential there, but IPOs are notoriously difficult to time as far as entries go. Maybe I should add it back to my LT watch list.

RVLV stock has definitely done poorly. In addition to the general running from IPOs, in RVLV's first 10Q after the IPO (quarter ended June 30, filed 8/12/19 I think) they took a humoungous charge for shares owed to early investors which were promised to be delivered when RVLV IPOed (it's in the S-1, which I did not read). That, I think, truly is a one-timer. Other than that they are doing OK, methinks. Anyway, I have a LEAP of Jan. 2022. We'll see.

[billyjoe]

FAX is very interesting, Billy. I certainly don't have anything like it. Reasonable entry point. Have to start paying more attention to Asian Squawk Box.

Louetta, Despite the "Asia" in the FAX symbol, 6 of its top 7 holdings are in Australian bonds.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asia-...100000957.html

-----------------billy