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I have 22 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #11
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    188

    Default

    The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?

  2. #12

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mooddude
    The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?
    Usually I do reinvest. I've had stocks drop before, but they almost always eventually reach my sell target, and in most cases they outperform the market in doing so.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  3. #13
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    188

    Default

    What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?

  4. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mooddude
    What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?
    all of my trades since Jan 1 2002 are listed on my homepage along with the percentage gains. It should be easy enough to average them out, if that's the math you want to perform.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  5. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    188

    Default

    To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking

    Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.

  6. #16
    Join Date
    Sep 2003
    Posts
    4,730

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mooddude
    To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking

    Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.
    you don't need the amounts to do the calculation, only relative amounts. if $$MM wanted everyone to know how much $$ he has invested, he'd probably have told us by now.

    it would make a lot of sense to just assume an equal weight for each position at the start, since that's the most logical way someone would go about "following the system" if he or she had no reason to think one pick was huger than the other. and you can also assume that the proceeds from each sale are rolled into the following pick, since that's what $$MM has stated is how this model works.

    there are of course some instances where these assumptions won't match $$MM's performance exactly- like when multiple sales occur- but the discrepancies would probably mostly cancel each other out, and you'd end up with a pretty good approximation of the returns...

    an easier way to do it would just be to ask Karel how his FMM model has been performing, since he's already been doing this calculation for some time now.


    5/17
    FMM: 20059
    SPY: 21805
    QQQ: 20972


    11/22
    FMM: 20951
    4.4%
    SPY: 21652
    -0.7%
    QQQ: 21760 3.8%

    12/5
    FMM: 20606
    2.7%
    SPY: 21783 -0.1%
    QQQ: 22170
    5.7%




    Actually, I pulled the #'s off of Karel's FMM thread, and it shows that someone starting to follow the method in May 2004 (using Karel's rules... which you can look up in his thread) would be up about 3% as of Dec 5. That's not so huge in itself, but it's still 3% better than the S&P ($$MM tends to compare his performace to this index). Of course, it's also 3% less than what the QQQ has returned in the same period. Now I woudn't expect 6% out the QQQ every 6 months, but out of the FMM port, 3-6% could probably be expected or even surpassed over most 6 month periods.

    Please do more of the math and show me if what I said is true or not!
    Last edited by jiesen; 12-09-2004 at 03:24 PM.

  7. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Baltimore
    Posts
    265

    Default

    Ernie,

    Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

    Thanks for this web site.

    PS: You are Huge!
    Happy investing,
    Dave

    My opinion is worth no more than the price you paid for me to give it.

  8. #18

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by df21084
    Ernie,

    Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

    Thanks for this web site.

    PS: You are Huge!
    My commissions are pretty small compared to the total capital in my trade. When you open or close a position is entirely up to you. I'm not a financial advisor, and even if I was, it's your money, not mine.

    Nothing I ever say on this website should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a stock.
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  9. #19
    Join Date
    Nov 2003
    Location
    ohio
    Posts
    8,892

    Default

    Mr. Market,
    I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
    billyjoe

  10. #20

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by billyjoe
    Mr. Market,
    I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
    billyjoe
    Generally I look for price appreciation. Once I had a stock, PORT, which was bought out at a price that would have given me a 14% gain. Fortunately, it paid dividends of about 4% that put me over the top...(phew).
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

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