$$$MR. MARKET$$$'s Personal Homepage and Stock Portfolio

[mooddude]

The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?

[mrmarket]

The list http://members.aol.com/ebarsamian/ looks quiet impressive. I have some questons to mrmarket... Did you re-invest after each transaction? If yes, then how much do you reinvest? Also, wouldn't the worst drops of 85.9% kill all previous gains?

Usually I do reinvest. I've had stocks drop before, but they almost always eventually reach my sell target, and in most cases they outperform the market in doing so.

[mooddude]

What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?

[mrmarket]

What's your average percent gain on all closed and current investments, if not a secret?

all of my trades since Jan 1 2002 are listed on my homepage along with the percentage gains. It should be easy enough to average them out, if that's the math you want to perform.

[mooddude]

To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking

Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.

[jiesen]

To calculate the average, I would need the amounts associated with each transaction. They are not there, that's why I'm asking

Let's say one makes 50% on $100 and then loses mere 5% but on $5000. Looks like it was a good 50% gain and just a 5% loss. Alas, that's a huge loss on average.

you don't need the amounts to do the calculation, only relative amounts. if $$MM wanted everyone to know how much $$ he has invested, he'd probably have told us by now.

it would make a lot of sense to just assume an equal weight for each position at the start, since that's the most logical way someone would go about "following the system" if he or she had no reason to think one pick was huger than the other. and you can also assume that the proceeds from each sale are rolled into the following pick, since that's what $$MM has stated is how this model works.

there are of course some instances where these assumptions won't match $$MM's performance exactly- like when multiple sales occur- but the discrepancies would probably mostly cancel each other out, and you'd end up with a pretty good approximation of the returns...

an easier way to do it would just be to ask Karel how his FMM model has been performing, since he's already been doing this calculation for some time now.


5/17
FMM: 20059
SPY: 21805
QQQ: 20972

11/22
FMM: 20951 4.4%
SPY: 21652 -0.7%
QQQ: 21760 3.8%

12/5
FMM: 20606 2.7%
SPY: 21783 -0.1%
QQQ: 22170 5.7%




Actually, I pulled the #'s off of Karel's FMM thread, and it shows that someone starting to follow the method in May 2004 (using Karel's rules... which you can look up in his thread) would be up about 3% as of Dec 5. That's not so huge in itself, but it's still 3% better than the S&P ($$MM tends to compare his performace to this index). Of course, it's also 3% less than what the QQQ has returned in the same period. Now I woudn't expect 6% out the QQQ every 6 months, but out of the FMM port, 3-6% could probably be expected or even surpassed over most 6 month periods.

Please do more of the math and show me if what I said is true or not!

[df21084]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

[mrmarket]

Ernie,

Do you include commissions when calculating your returns? I'm not sure if I should include commissions when determining when to close a position.

Thanks for this web site.

PS: You are Huge!

My commissions are pretty small compared to the total capital in my trade. When you open or close a position is entirely up to you. I'm not a financial advisor, and even if I was, it's your money, not mine.

Nothing I ever say on this website should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a stock.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market,
I was just pondering OFG and wondered if your 15% goal could be met or has ever been met by means of dividends, special dividends, stock dividends, or one time cash payments, rather than price appreciation. Many years ago I received a check for $99 because of some fishy goings on by the officers of a stock I owned.
billyjoe

Generally I look for price appreciation. Once I had a stock, PORT, which was bought out at a price that would have given me a 14% gain. Fortunately, it paid dividends of about 4% that put me over the top...(phew).