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I have 21 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
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    Default Today's Wild-assed Pick

    For some time I've been following a Chinese home furnishings company called Home Systems (HSYT). It's not a National Market stock but seems to have been showing increasing revenues and earnings over the past 2 years anyway.

    The stock did OK over 18 months, going from below $1 to about $4, backed off some early last fall and then in Novemeber went to near zero volume and subsequently fell back to below $1. There has been no news I can find on the company per se but it would seem likely from the timing that it is a victim of the Rino scandal tho I do not see evidence that HSYT has the Variable Interest Entity structure.

    Anyway at a P/E below 3 and with a series of seemingly coherent earnings reports I figured it was worth a flyer and picked up some shares below $.60. There is risk here beyond the usual risks. I.e. the company could be a fraud. But I figured if the company IS as legitimate as the SEC filings look the upside from here could be high.

  2. #2
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    Default

    For today's wild-assed pick we have another fine Chinese company (fine assuming it's not a complete fraud like RINO): Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. symbol XIN. The company builds residential projects including multiple residential buildings that include multi-layer apartment buildings, sub-high-rise apartment buildings, or high-rise apartment buildings in second tier cities (e.g. not Beijing size cities) in the PRC. The company's stock price (actually ADSes) has taken a beating because of reported woes in the Chinese real estate market. Anyway they are out with 4th quarter and year-end earnings. 4th quarter sequential growth (not Y over Y) both revenue and EPS was very good. Full year earnings increase very good tho full year revenue was flat. P/E runs about 4, like a lot of Chinese stocks trading in the US. XIN gets lots of good feedback in write-ups you see on the net. According to their material the sequential improvement in results is due to a new more lucrative project coming on line. They do seem to have addressed the problem of revenue recognition, which can be a problem in long-lead time development projects. Anyway I own it. So far price action has been dismal but methinks things are looking up.

  3. #3
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    Default

    Today's wild-assed pick is Response Biomedical (RBM.TO or RPBIF.OB), a medical supply company which sells testing kits. Though sales to their US customers have decreased recently they have entered the Chinese market which proportedly will result in sales growth.

    But the real reason the company caught my interest was an investment by Orbimed. In July, the company received $8 million in funding through Orbimed and 2 Orbimed advisors were elected to the board. In Oct. Orbimed increased ownership to 35% of the company. Orbimed, methinks, has a good track record. Their other portfolio companies include Amarin.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    Today's wild-assed pick is Response Biomedical (RBM.TO or RPBIF.OB), a medical supply company which sells testing kits. Though sales to their US customers have decreased recently they have entered the Chinese market which proportedly will result in sales growth.

    But the real reason the company caught my interest was an investment by Orbimed. In July, the company received $8 million in funding through Orbimed and 2 Orbimed advisors were elected to the board. In Oct. Orbimed increased ownership to 35% of the company. Orbimed, methinks, has a good track record. Their other portfolio companies include Amarin.
    hmmmmmmmmmmmm
    =============================

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  5. #5
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by mrmarket View Post
    hmmmmmmmmmmmm
    Well said, large person.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Today's wild-assed pick is Methylgene (MYG.TO and MYLGF.PK) a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on the development and commercialization of novel therapeutics for cancer. The Company's product candidates include an oral, multi-targeted kinase inhibitor in Phase 2, a fungal Hos2 inhibitor in Phase 1 and an oral, isotype-selective histone deacetylase inhibitor in Phase 2. The stock was up 16% today to a robust 46 cents a share.

    The real reason for my interest is that early last month Orbimed took a 13% stake. They have had some good results including AMRN.

  7. #7
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    Default

    Today's wild-assed pick is Biodel (BIOD), a biopharma company doing research in the area of new and hopefully more efficacious and convenient medications for diabetics. BIOD took the pipe last November when they received a poor CRL concerning their drug candidates and have since reconfigured their proposed offerings and begun a new series of tests. It's going to be a fairly long haul with Phase III testing pushed off till 2012. They have announced a new securities offering at $2.16 per share with warrants and preferred stock. One of the subscribers is Orbimed which is a VC firm I am partial to. BIOD closed today at $2.04.

  8. #8
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    Default

    Today's wild-assed pick is Anadys Pharmaceuticals (ANDS), a biopharma looking at developing novel medicines for treatment of Hep C. They have one candidate in Phase IIB and another entering Phase IIA. They have enuf cash to meet operating expenses for 5 more quarters which means they most likely would need more cash to bring one or both candidates to appproval. My interest is a 10% stake by Orbimed, recently increased. There are other VC firms involved plus half a dozen mutual funds, per Morningstar.

  9. #9
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    Today's wild-assed pick is Corcept (CORT) a bio-pharma. They submitted an NDA on April 15 for their CORLUX drug for the treatment of Cushing's syndrome with a request for priority review. The FDA goal for completing a priority review is six months (which would be Oct. 15) and the company is supposed to find out 45 days from their request whether the NDA has been assigned a Priority Review which would be any day now. Anyway the stock started to move a smidge this week after languishing for awhile. They plan to make detailed data from their Phase 3 trial of CORLUX available at the Endocrine Society Annual Meeting June 4-7 in Boston. They also say they are developing plans and engaging third-party vendors to support a commercial launch of CORLUX in the United States, if approved by the FDA. Got this one from the same VC firm I originally got AMRN from.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Louetta View Post
    For today's wild-assed pick we have another fine Chinese company (fine assuming it's not a complete fraud like RINO): Xinyuan Real Estate Co., Ltd. symbol XIN. The company builds residential projects including multiple residential buildings that include multi-layer apartment buildings, sub-high-rise apartment buildings, or high-rise apartment buildings in second tier cities (e.g. not Beijing size cities) in the PRC. ... snip ... Anyway I own it. So far price action has been dismal but methinks things are looking up.
    Well. Since February the government has taken more steps to head off a bubble in real estate and the latest XIN earnings report was not good as far as revenue was concerned. There doesn't seem to be any meaningful chance that the stock price will make any substantial gains in a reasonable time frame so I threw in the towel. They did announce a share buyback a week ago and that helped the stock but I treated that as just a better opportunity to get out.

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