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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    Default RiverBabe's Baby Biotechs

    I have been thinking about how critical I have been lately about some of the baby biotech stocks brought to Mr. Market's Forum, and have decided it might be the right time to be more pro-active and useful by analyzing some of these stocks for would-be investors and traders here who are considering them.

    My background is in biotech: in training (PhD), research, patenting, limited licensing consults, investing. I'm not the only person here with similar or equivalent experience, so I invite all views of my analyses whether positive or negative. This will be a very open thread. Go for it!

    To begin with, if you are interested in a particular baby biotech, either post it here or PM me. By "baby biotech" I mean little known biotechs that are not yet well-known pharma names. (Analysis of big pharma is a whole different ballgame, and that's not what I'm offering here.) So, fire away and I'll do my best. Riverbabe
    Last edited by riverbabe; 05-03-2010 at 09:17 AM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    Default Alxa

    One of you PM'd me last week to ask for my take on ALXA (Alexza Pharmaceuticals). I think Pete Hansen first brought it to the table. I intend to be brief, so you will have to do your own DD on the company itself, science, management, and the products it is developing. http://www.alexza.com/about

    From an investing point of view, what is most interesting to me is the fact that they have submitted a New Drug Application (NDA) to the FDA for the first of their product line (AZ-004), an inhalable nasal aerosol for rapid systemic drug delivery with a first indicated use in rapid treatment of agitation in patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder. But their pipeline includes using the same technology for other drugs for migraines, break-through pain, acute panic attacks, insomnia. Wow, sounds like something some of us can use! And also sounds like a huge market should any or all of these get approved!


    The NDA for AZ-004 is due to be acted on Oct. 11 or before. Has completed Phase III clinical trials with good results. (This meets one of my criteria.) Also has the nice pipeline mentioned above already in clinical trials.

    Although the company is still operating at a loss as of end of 2009, they are getting steady milestone payments from their partnership with Biovail. (Partnerships with deep pockets and sales forces are good.) http://www.biospace.com/news_story.a...ntityId=172111

    The stock price is in a steady uptrend. Looks good. Av. daily volume is >100,000 limit = one of my criteria. Has good institutional ownership also. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=ALXA+Major+Holders

    ALXA reports earnings May 10th.

    I think this could be a good pick, but that's just my humble opinion, so don't hold me to it. It could continue to inch up until October. But if there is no approval, or the FDA has questions it still needs answers to, this could involve putting off approval for a year or two. In that case, the stock price could take a hit.

    Overall, I think it has potential. Good luck.

    (Disclosure: I bought a few shares of ALXA as a beginning position on Friday, 4/30.)

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
    Posts
    6,314

    Default

    i like the stock and would consider buying it but it's so close to reporting earnings i feel uncomfortable. but the fda approval is big if they get it. i think it's worth owning a few shares.
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  4. #4
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    Dec 2004
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    6,314

    Default

    there must be some anxiousness going on with ALXA this morning in front of that upcoming earnings report. down around 5-6 %
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
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    499

    Default

    very nice thread, we're lucky to have a biotech expert here.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by skiracer View Post
    i like the stock and would consider buying it but it's so close to reporting earnings i feel uncomfortable. but the fda approval is big if they get it. i think it's worth owning a few shares.
    Thanks Ski.

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA
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    Default

    This is going to be a great part of the forum, riverbabe. I'm really looking forward to it.

    What about DNDN... how much further can it run before share price acceleration defeats potential sales growth?
    Hide not your talents.
    They for use were made.
    What's a sundial in the shade?

    - Benjamin Franklin

  8. #8
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    northern ohio
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by skiracer View Post
    there must be some anxiousness going on with ALXA this morning in front of that upcoming earnings report. down around 5-6 %
    You may be right. Don't see any other news to justify it other than simple profit-taking because of it's recent run-up.

  9. #9
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    May 2005
    Location
    northern ohio
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peanuts View Post
    This is going to be a great part of the forum, riverbabe. I'm really looking forward to it.

    What about DNDN... how much further can it run before share price acceleration defeats potential sales growth?
    I think we're definitely looking at a short squeeze here. From Yahoo Finance:

    Avg Vol (3 month)3: 4,789,310
    Avg Vol (10 day)3: 11,550,900
    Shares Outstanding5: 134.14M
    Float: 132.18M
    % Held by Insiders1: 8.59%
    % Held by Institutions1: 59.60%
    Shares Short (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: 13.12M
    Short Ratio (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: 4.60
    Short % of Float (as of Apr 15, 2010)3: N/A
    Shares Short (prior month)3: 13.30M

    As a short term player, I am watching for a good exit.

    In the long term, the technology can be developed for all different kinds of cancers and is part of Dendreon's pipeline. http://dendreon.com/research-development/pipeline/

    In the intermediate term, they are working on ramping up production to meet the much-anticipated demand for Provenge therapy. According to the CC, they are going-it-alone for now, sans partnership. They must have deep pockets.

    It's a 3X treatment in a period of a month, @ $31k per treatment for $93k. They say it's fairly priced in comparison with other cancer treatments. Remains to be seen how much will be covered by Medicare and other insurance. But, now that it's approved it's no longer "experimental." Sales v. share price? Don't know.

  10. #10
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    May 2005
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    Default Thanx

    Quote Originally Posted by wooish View Post
    very nice thread, we're lucky to have a biotech expert here.
    Thanks Wooish and thanks Peanuts. Am looking forward to it.

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