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I have 26 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. How is this possible? Every day there are hundreds of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. Many of these stocks are still at very reasonable valuations. Afraid of buying stocks at their highs? Think of it this way: a new high is really a future floor for companies with solid financial underpinnings. Quantitative momentum modeling makes it easy to identify stocks that can continue this upward momentum trend. Why does this happen? It's really very simple..ask me about what investors and cows have in common. I am $$$ MR. MARKET $$$. I AM HUGE!!! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses. You can join in on the fun. Register for free and you'll be able to post messages on this forum and also receive emails when $$$ MR. MARKET $$$ makes his own trades. ($$$MR. MARKET$$$ is a proprietary investor and does not provide individual financial advice. The stocks mentioned on this forum do not represent individual buy or sell recommendations and should not be viewed as such. Individual investors should consider speaking with a professional investment adviser before making any investment decisions.)
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  1. #1
    Join Date
    May 2005
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    Default ZIXI - LONG or SHORT?

    I also posted this on Ski's Stock Slopes this AM.

    Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

    Sorry stockcharts.com would not let me upload my annotated chart. Guess I need the more expensive version.

    Riverbabe

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Location
    Pittsburgh, PA
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    3,352

    Red face

    ZIXI - I'll take option C - "flat"

    It needs to work thru this 1.60-1.70 area before direction can be determined. I would hate to be on the wrong side of this stock as it seems like whenever it decides to move, it's going to be a big and fast one either way.

    Good luck
    Hide not your talents.
    They for use were made.
    What's a sundial in the shade?

    - Benjamin Franklin

  3. #3
    Join Date
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by peanuts View Post
    ZIXI - I'll take option C - "flat"

    It needs to work thru this 1.60-1.70 area before direction can be determined. I would hate to be on the wrong side of this stock as it seems like whenever it decides to move, it's going to be a big and fast one either way.

    Good luck
    Thanks Pea. Hope the luck is good!

  4. #4
    Tatnic Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by riverbabe View Post
    I also posted this on Ski's Stock Slopes this AM.

    Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

    Sorry stockcharts.com would not let me upload my annotated chart. Guess I need the more expensive version.

    Riverbabe
    Looks like a fairly orderly retracement so far RB....but its such a puny stock that anything can happen in a heart beat.

  5. #5
    Tatnic Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tatnic View Post
    Looks like a fairly orderly retracement so far RB....but its such a puny stock that anything can happen in a heart beat.
    The level I'd watch would be $1.40. You're comfortably above that. And also, you can sometimes gauge a healthy retracement by watching the yearly high and low...if you end up right in the middle that can be around the bounce level. For this stock that equates to $1.5 give or take a dime.

  6. #6
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tatnic View Post
    The level I'd watch would be $1.40. You're comfortably above that. And also, you can sometimes gauge a healthy retracement by watching the yearly high and low...if you end up right in the middle that can be around the bounce level. For this stock that equates to $1.5 give or take a dime.
    Thanks a mil$ Tatnic. This is one recommended by Ski on his stockcharts site about a week ago. It looked better than. I haven't bet the farm on it but need to be careful that I don't lose (too much) either. Riverbabe

  7. #7
    Tatnic Guest

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by riverbabe View Post
    Thanks a mil$ Tatnic. This is one recommended by Ski on his stockcharts site about a week ago. It looked better than. I haven't bet the farm on it but need to be careful that I don't lose (too much) either. Riverbabe
    If you pull up the weekly version you can see that the volume has dried up during this pullback and that can mean that its an orderly retracement. So I think its too early to tell...

    Its certainly not a head and shoulders pattern. You have to get the right shoulder and then break below the neckline for that pattern to be legit. I can't begin to count the numbers of times I've see a chart like this that has formed the left shoulder and the head but ultimately continues to power up. Set your stops at 1.38 and don't worry about it.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
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    Monroe, WI
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    6,091

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Tatnic View Post
    If you pull up the weekly version you can see that the volume has dried up during this pullback and that can mean that its an orderly retracement. So I think its too early to tell...

    Its certainly not a head and shoulders pattern. You have to get the right shoulder and then break below the neckline for that pattern to be legit. I can't begin to count the numbers of times I've see a chart like this that has formed the left shoulder and the head but ultimately continues to power up. Set your stops at 1.38 and don't worry about it.
    Tatnic is probably right. You are too late to jump out of this ship; and you jumped onto this ship too early. The best advice, imho, would be to hold on and wait until ZIXI works itself out. ZIXI should bounce around $1.40; or $1.25; or even $0.50. We will have to wait and see. But when she bounces you could possibly consider tripling down at that point, to lower your breakeven exit price. But this last piece of advice needs to be carefully weighed against the risk factors involved, and I would suggest some careful FA by some expert lurking around here, like Peanuts. When it comes to FA, he's in the big leagues.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Dec 2004
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    6,314

    Default

    Looking like a classic H&S pattern now. Bounced off but couldn't break through 50 dma resistance. Should we be short this now instead of long? Any help would be appreciated. Riverbabe

    The first rule is that you MUST have some specific plan for the trade.
    The second rule is that you understand that the higher percentage of your trades are going to be losers.
    The 3rd rule is that the only way to control those percentages is by controlling the trade and not letting the trade control you.
    You can only do that one way and that is rule # 1.

    I highlighted ZIXI and ONT at the Stockcharts public charts last week. I own several thousand shares of both. Discounting my reasoning behind making the trades in the first place just say that I was in ZIXI from the 1.95 / 2.00 range and that I must have liked or seen something in it either technically or fundamentally that made me feel that way. Aside from hitting the submit button and making the trade the very first thing I do is look to where I would make my exit or place my stop either physically or mentally. It is usually at somewhere around 7% from my entry and VERY VERY VERY seldom is it more or do I let it go farther than 7 % below my entry. With ZIXI the stop/exit level was at 1.81. I never placed the physical stop on ZIXI but it wasn't necessary as I knew that I was in control of the trade and my emotions and there was no way that I would let the trade go past that point or get out of my control. When the stock hit 1.81 I exited the trade and took the loss which was around $2100.00. I know that I am not going to win them all and won't even come close to winning 50 % of them and I don't care. But I stop the bleeding early and let the winners run.
    The other stock, ONT, was entered at 2.09 and closed today at 3.59. It has been as high as 3.98 or so. That is a 71.7 % gain as of todays close. The offsetting gain certainly takes care of the 7 % loss on ZIXI and depending on the number of shares will offset up to and including almost another 4 or 5 losers at 7% if that be the case. At this point I am up a touch over $16,000 on the ONT trade. That's the difference in cutting the losers off at a reasonable point with a specific plan in place and not knowing what you are going to do if and when the trade goes against you.
    Perhaps the biggest point in all of this is that if you are still holding the trade and are now much lower than 7 % and probably right around 16/17 % down from your entry and I am out of the trade and now watching for the bottom, without any concerns as to whether the stock goes up or down but the option of getting in at a much lower price than I had initially. In doing so I am now in a position to ride the stock from the bottoming out point back up to 2 or higher which would put me in a position to reap the benefits of the drop or pullback or whatever you want to call it or not to do anything while you are still holding and hoping that the stock will go back up or maybe exiting now in a desperate move to cut you losses now instead of when it would have cost you a lot less.
    The short play may have been missed and I would think it is now gone. If I was that interested in the stock I would be looking for the bottom and a re-entry on the long side from that bottom. But in my estimation the stock has failed at my original plan and it is now dead in my book. Maybe sometime later it might again catch my interest but the last thing I would be looking to do is to chase it on the short side right here.
    Until you or anyone accepts the fact that you must have an exit strategy or stop and the rest of the plan in place and set in your mind and honor it you will never be as successful as your potential.
    Sounds harsh but as true as the sun rising tomorrow morning.
    THE SKIRACER'S EDGE: MAKE THE EDGE IN YOUR FAVOR

  10. #10
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    Default

    Until you or anyone accepts the fact that you must have an exit strategy or stop and the rest of the plan in place and set in your mind and honor it you will never be as successful as your potential.
    Sounds harsh but as true as the sun rising tomorrow morning.

    Yes sir. I know this. I very seldom make this mistake. But I did this time. Mea culpa. Riverbabe

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