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Thread: AMHC

  1. #1

    Default AMHC

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$ Loves AMHC
    by: mr_market63 (43/M)
    Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 07/14/03 09:51 am
    Msg: 1517 of 1713

    Did you ever wish that there was a living conscience that would prevent you from doing things that were harmful to your health, like when you reach for that donut or cigarette? Wouldn’t it be great to get a reassuring phone call from a nurse with a sexy voice who will tell you to eat a bowl of oatmeal instead?

    Not only would you like to get these phone calls….but don’t you think Cigna and the other mammoth health insurers wouldn’t like Americans to take better care of themselves? Fewer insurance payouts means more money for Cigna. That’s why Cigna, and other insurance providers, have contracted out American Healthways (AMHC) to call these people with chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease and asthma. In practice, disease management seems pretty straightforward. For instance, a nurse might phone diabetics several times a year to provide diet recommendations and remind them when they're due for diagnostic tests. The idea is to lower the incidence of heart attacks, respiratory failure, and other major episodes that cost big bucks to deal with.

    Today I bought AMHC at 41.00. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 47.61. Here’s why I like AMHC:

    AMHC stock is up 273% over the last 12 months. It’s a real high flier and its P/E of 38 says that I’m taking a chance by owning this guy. Upon further review, however, this is not such a stretch at all. Revenues are growing at an astronomical rate of 30% per year over the last 4 years. Even better is the fact that, since this is a service business, a lot of these revenues end up on the bottom line. These guys think they can be a billion dollar company in 2005..almost 8 times bigger than they are now. For a fee, AMHC will make sure members in health insurance plans get the care they need, whether it's insulin for diabetes or a heart-assist device for congestive heart failure. More than 400 nurses at its four call centers around the country are trained to handle the work. This way the patient gets to know the people calling. They establish a rapport or a friendship with the (nurses). It helps the patients feel that there's someone out there who cares and is watching over them.

    First Call has AMHC making $1.09/share in 2003 (one more quarter left) and $1.30 in 2004 but $$$MR. MARKET$$$ sees the HUGE upside in customer growth leading to a $1.50/share in fiscal 2004 which would propel the stock price to $57.00/share using the same valuation criteria.

    American's sales ballooned from $31 million the year the project started to $123 million last year. It's become the biggest disease-management firm in the country. American has grown by landing some big clients. In December 2001 it signed a 10-year contract with Blue Cross Blue Shield of Minnesota. The deal brought in the business of BCBS's 2.1 million members. It also marked a new model for American. The firm not only manages dangerous chronic diseases, but also "quality of life" ailments such as back pain and arthritis. Do you smell what the Rock is cookin? When someone has a backache, they call American…..ka-ching…ka-ching.

    Last month, American Healthways was named to BusinessWeek
    magazine's annual list of 100 Hot Growth companies in America and was
    added to Standard & Poor's "S&P SmallCap 600 Index."

    So the next time you reach for a beer and a cigarette and decide not to go to the gym, be careful….AMHC and $$$MR. MARKET$$$ may be watching you and we just might call you to get your ass back to some healthy living.

    I am HUGE!!!

    $$$MR. MARKET$$$

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

  2. #2
    Gem Guest

    Default AMHC - earnings

    WHat's your take on the Q4 earnings and the outlook for FY 2004?

  3. #3

    Default Re: AMHC - earnings

    Quote Originally Posted by Gem
    WHat's your take on the Q4 earnings and the outlook for FY 2004?
    I think earnings and revenue growth will continue to be very very strong. I'm pretty sure it will hit my target by the end of this year.

    I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

    - $$$MR. MARKET$$$

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