AMLN - comments?

[jiesen]

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35219&u=ssyr007&a=AMLN&id=1512

what does this chart say to you trader types? Personally, I think AMLN is going to 50 and higher...

[jiesen]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

Amylin revenue is growing at 42% per week right now.

[Websman]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

Amylin revenue is growing at 42% per week right now.

I'm liking what I see. I may consider getting in with you on this one.

[New-born baby]

http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=35219&u=ssyr007&a=AMLN&id=1512

what does this chart say to you trader types? Personally, I think AMLN is going to 50 and higher...

I have a pre-market order for AMLN right now. Here's the chart. Excellent looking stock. On its third wave up right now. $25 looks very easy; $50 would be quite nice.
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/977/chart16kk.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart16kk.gif)

[Gatorman]

New-Born
Was you ordered filled? If so, at what price?

[jiesen]

I have a pre-market order for AMLN right now. Here's the chart. Excellent looking stock. On its third wave up right now. $25 looks very easy; $50 would be quite nice.
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/977/chart16kk.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart16kk.gif)

welcome, nbb. hang on for the ride! it could be a wild one, but 2x or 3x share price increase will make it worthwhile in the end.

[New-born baby]

New-Born
Was you ordered filled? If so, at what price?

$23.40. Yeah, I'm down $1 already. Nice "channel" entry, right?
Yes, I am hanging on for the ride, and may add a few shares later.

[New-born baby]

welcome, nbb. hang on for the ride! it could be a wild one, but 2x or 3x share price increase will make it worthwhile in the end.

Jiesen,
You're sure about the earnings, right? If its got the Ernie type earnings, I'll be fine.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You're sure about the earnings, right? If its got the Ernie type earnings, I'll be fine.

Yes, I'm sure the earnings will come. They are a function of the scripts being written now. As these rise, so will earnings. Of course the drugs are only out on the market for a few weeks now, so earnings haven't been reported as of yet. Therefore, Ernie would stay away from AMLN right now. However, in two years, when they're making $5/share and the price is at $60 or $80, it'll start to show up on his screens. The market for these diabetes drugs is in the billions, and AMLN will continue to bring more drugs to the market, fueling even more growth.

[New-born baby]

I have no stop on this one. Let's hope she doesn't go all the way to Zero.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/7886/chart10je.th.gif (http://img227.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart10je.gif)

[B.J]

Good find Jiesen. You seem to have a good handle on pharmaceuticals, so I'm definitely looking into it.

[Gatorman]

I have no stop on this one. Let's hope she doesn't go all the way to Zero.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/7886/chart10je.th.gif (http://img227.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart10je.gif)

Or, this could be as I think, the handle of a cup and a prelude to big gains.

[New-born baby]

Good find Jiesen. You seem to have a good handle on stocks ready to fall off of a cliff! Wonderful short opportunity. How long do you think it will be before it gets to Zero?

I just re-read your thread. You meant to say that this thing had NEGATIVE earnings. :D

[B.J]

I just re-read your thread. You meant to say that this thing had NEGATIVE earnings. :D

You had to bring that one up... It certainly does now, but Jiesen's digging changed my way of thinking a bit.

[New-born baby]

For those investors with patience, here's the proper entries:
http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/6633/chart13sg.th.gif (http://img107.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13sg.gif)

[jiesen]

I just re-read your thread. You meant to say that this thing had NEGATIVE earnings. :D

yes, they HAD negative earnings. The cash is starting to roll in right now. No better time to get in, imo.

If AMLN goes to zero, I will eat my hat.

[B.J]

Jiesen, when did you buy this one if you don't mind me asking?

[New-born baby]

yes, they HAD negative earnings. The cash is starting to roll in right now. No better time to get in, imo.

If AMLN goes to zero, I will eat my hat.

Jiesen:
That's real easy for you so say: you don't have a hat! But look at me! I have a hat to eat, and the losses on this stock! :D

(Just kidding about losing on this stock. I think it is going to be very good).

[jiesen]

Jiesen:
That's real easy for you so say: you don't have a hat! But look at me! I have a hat to eat, and the losses on this stock! :D

(Just kidding about losing on this stock. I think it is going to be very good).

lol! good point... then I'll eat some stale cheese instead. won't matter though, since it ain't gonna happen. thing is, with these drug stocks, the approval is key. if the drugs work, as these do, the drugs market themselves, and cash begins to roll in- just look at VPHM, for example. DNA, also, is where AMLN could be 5 years from now. The drugs sales are obviously taking off, as evidenced by the script numbers I posted. The earnings will follow, and naturally, the stock price lags these hard numbers, so, while we won't be seeing $30 next week, by next year, it's almost a certainty.

[B.J]

Looks to me like it supported the trend (note the blue line):

http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/6439/amln2ku.jpg

[Runner]

Intraday chart

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/233/amln9dy.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Websman]

AMLN Closed at @22.20 and down more AH. I see an opportunity for me to get in at bargain prices tomorrow morning. I just need to figure out what price to set my limit order at.

[skiracer]

I'm with you on this one Webs. This looks like a great opportunity for an entry. Just be patient and watch it in the morning to see which way the wind is going to blow with it tomorrow. You just might be able to get it cheaper. This stock should easily go back up to 23.50 range which would be a 1.5 point gain if it just does that. It definitely could be more.

[Websman]

I'm with you on this one Webs. This looks like a great opportunity for an entry. Just be patient and watch it in the morning to see which way the wind is going to blow with it tomorrow. You just might be able to get it cheaper. This stock should easily go back up to 23.50 range which would be a 1.5 point gain if it just does that. It definitely could be more.

I wish I could watch it, but I'll be at work. I'll have to set a limit order and hope for the best.

[Websman]

I have performed my logical Vulcan analysis and have found the perfect entry point for AMLN.

AMLN gapped up on June 14th. As of this date this gap has not been filled. I'm going to be patient and place my bets that the gap will fill and I will be able to buy AMLN for $17.92. Of course right after it fills the gap AMLN will score some huge gains for my wallet.

Worst case scenario is that I'm totally wrong and I miss out on a good opportunity.

[jiesen]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

Prescriptions are up to 4000/week now between the 2 drugs. I'm not sure when this share price correction will end, but I think I might pick some up around 19... We may see your target, too, Webs, but I wouldn't count on that.

It also might help to have a few more data points to better see the big picture, but as of July we're doing at least $15M/year and I think that it could at least quadruple by the end of the year. Probably by September the picture will be a lot clearer, but, if the numbers are good then the opportunity to get AMLN under $20 will be gone.

I think another thing to consider would be how expenses are racking up alongside the revenues. The one thing that could still kill us despite record revenues, is record losses to go with them. Hopefully, sales growth will be strong enough to put AMLN on a trajectory to a profit within a few years.

[spikefader]

Hate to post bad charts guys :( Hope I'm wrong on the weekly and right on the daily channel long today and it leads to some bullishness for anyone long without stops!!!

http://img332.imageshack.us/img332/1681/amlnjuly257lq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img332.imageshack.us/img332/774/amlndayjuly250mu.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Hate to post bad charts guys :( Hope I'm wrong on the weekly and right on the daily channel long today and it leads to some bullishness for anyone long without stops!!!




Thanks for the technicals, Spike. I'll try to use this to better time my next AMLN entry, as well as put a tight stop on it this time. My initial position will be held for 50 or bust, but I don't want to throw too much at this one stock... yet, anyway.

[B.J]

I already stopped (20.10), because it fell below the 200 day moving average (another bearish sign).

[Websman]

I'm still happy with my 50% gain on VPHM. Maybe I'll get the chance to do it again! :)

[spikefader]

Thanks for the technicals, Spike. I'll try to use this to better time my next AMLN entry, as well as put a tight stop on it this time. My initial position will be held for 50 or bust, but I don't want to throw too much at this one stock... yet, anyway.Sure, any time. May the Pharma investors be blinded with bullishness for ya :D

Ya know, I just looked at the Pharma Index, and that's definately not helping AMLN's cause:
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/2631/djusprpharmaindexweeklyjuly251.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/2778/djusprpharmaindexjuly259fc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[B.J]

Thanks for the chart, Spike. That'll help me rethink my VPHM position.

[spikefader]

Thanks for the chart, Spike. That'll help me rethink my VPHM position.Well just remember that VPHM is in a different group; it's in NC Health, so would the Pharma Index lead/influence that?

Another point: VPHM is current in No. 8 best potential in that group according to equitytrader.com (http://www.equitytrader.com/structure/?symbol=NC_HLTH), so don't be too quick to write it off.

On the technical side, I have a wave count of a possible 5wave abc with the c at 10.60 on Fri that has been bought nicely today, and a bullish hourly PSAR with rising money flow about to hit 70.

On the weekly, it still looks like it's in a 3. Daily and weekly money flow is great. The daily gap support strongly.

I think it's going up. I'm expecting a channel turn up by close tomorrow, that green lights chasing the closing price or Wednesday's intraday pivot.

Failure of C is bad and the time to exit.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6016/vphmjuly251mh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

well now I'm confused.....
yhoo says it's in biotech
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=VPHM

Well, whatever group it's in, let's face it; its recent price action is ignoring any leading index. Check it out relative to $BTK and it makes sense to NOT base any decision off $BTK's price action. I just don't see it directly relevant to it right now. You're better off using VPHM's own support resistance areas.

Anyway, good luck with it!

[jiesen]

Just bought more (doubled up) at 19.4. I'm putting a stop at 18 on this position. I'm at about a 2% position in AMLN now.

[B.J]

You're better off using VPHM's own support resistance areas.

Anyway, good luck with it!

Spike, thanks for the input. What you recommended is in fact what I've decided to do. Another thing with the chart, if you draw a straight line from 1.67 to 6.62 to 10.14, you'll see that the price has not come below that line, so I ascertain that VPHM is VERY strong.

My stop is under yesterday's low.

[spikefader]

Just bought more (doubled up) at 19.4. I'm putting a stop at 18 on this position. I'm at about a 2% position in AMLN now.Well you've got three things going for you that may shape up in the face of all the bearish things; price support; 50% retrace of the big recent move; and a channel long day today with entry down near intraday S1 (S2 18.83 would be better but if 19.10 double bottom forms and responds, you'll be sitting pretty).

[jiesen]

cool, glad to hear I got something going for me, technically.

[jiesen]

short interest up huge according to the new figures available today:

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?symbol=amln&SettlementDate=07%2F15%2F2005

26M short now vs. 14M in June.

All that shorting and they only brought AMLN down to 19? hmmm.

[spikefader]

Well this is strange. The daily has pulled a fast one. The price action today has changed the characteristics of the channel. What WAS a channel long intraday, by close, it isn't one, and the channel expands, opening the door for bears :( You got your double bottom at 19.10 today I was happy to note, and price responded well, and now this......but it's a clear bullish candle that one today.

But based on all the other charts, I'm still seeing it favors lower. But hey, you've picked bottoms well in the past, and I'm sure you will in the future!

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/76/amlnjuly265ir.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Weekly, ending July 22:
Byetta total 3877, new 3656. Symlin total 1132, new 925

This is not 100% verified, but probably correct. It's at least 10% over what was projected for the week based on daily script #'s. Definitely a reason for AMLN to be up 10% (or more) today.

[jiesen]

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/08/01/amylin-pharmaceuticals-earnings-0801markets12.html

Amylin's Byetta Still Has Blockbuster Potential

Morgan Stanley maintained an "overweight" rating on Amylin Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: AMLN - news - people ) ahead of second-quarter results and said the biotech firm's diabetes drug Byetta will likely drive shares higher. "We believe that the Byetta franchise will emerge as a winner, driving significant stock performance over the next 12 to 24 months," said Morgan Stanley. "We continue to believe that Byetta has blockbuster potential."

The research firm predicted second-half volatility in the stock which will come as a result of a number of events including a U.S. Food and Drug Administration panel on Exubera, an inhalable form of insulin made by Pfizer (nyse: PFE - news - people ) and Nektar Therapeutics (nasdaq: NKTR - news - people ). "While we expect significant volatility with the stock as we move through the rest of the year, we recommend using this volatility to buy the stock," the firm said. Byetta, co-marketed with Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY - news - people ), was approved by the FDA in April and launched in June.

Morgan Stanley has a $29 price target on Amylin shares. "We expect commercial uptake of Byetta to be the primary driver of the stock over the next twelve months, and expect investors to follow prescription trends closely. The official sales force launch of Byetta has yet to occur (we understand that the companies have an offsite with the sales force within the next several weeks)," it said. "Additionally, we expect to see acceleration in growth as we move through the third quarter, as patients and physicians return from vacations and as we see prescriptions from post-ADA." The annual American Diabetes Association meeting was held in mid-June.

[New-born baby]

Nice post, Jiesen. Thank you!

[jiesen]

Nice post, Jiesen. Thank you!

You're welcome. Now I'll see if I can do anything to boost that multi-trillion dollar housing market a little for ya.

[New-born baby]

You're welcome. Now I'll see if I can do anything to boost that multi-trillion dollar housing market a little for ya.

Yeah, Jiesen. DO IT!

Thinking about selling some $90 or $ 95 covered calls on KBH.

[jiesen]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm


No kidding that AMLN is going to be a blockbuster! Just look at the projection this guy is making for sales this year. (looks much better with yesterday's updated data) We'll easily see $50-100M in sales this year, which was half-over with almost no sales to begin with.

Next year, who knows? $300M, $400M? One thing's for sure, if sales keep up like this, the stock has only one way to go- up!

[New-born baby]

No kidding that AMLN is going to be a blockbuster! Just look at the projection this guy is making for sales this year. (looks much better with yesterday's updated data) We'll easily see $50-100M in sales this year, which was half-over with almost no sales to begin with.

Next year, who knows? $300M, $400M? One thing's for sure, if sales keep up like this, the stock has only one way to go- up!

Can you give me a price target for AMLN for the next 12 months?

[jiesen]

Can you give me a price target for AMLN for the next 12 months?

Sure. I'd expect to see $40 within 6-12 months. The real growth, though, probably won't happen for another 3-4 years, as that's when the profits will finally start showing up in full force. To be safe though, I will probably take some early profits as they come (around $50 or so). Despite excellent sales, they could still botch it up by mismanaging the money they make. Companies have been known to do that!

My long-term target for AMLN is $200.

[B.J]

Well, good job guys! Maybe I'll get back in at the appropriate point.

[New-born baby]

My long-term target for AMLN is $200.

Jiesen:
If that happens, we'll be daytrading it like GooG!
Thanks for the targets.

[New-born baby]

Well, good job guys! Maybe I'll get back in at the appropriate point.

Its appropriate now. :D

[New-born baby]

Jiesen, Here's a look at AMLN today.
You call that a shoulder~head~shoulder?

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/3614/chart30id.th.gif (http://img150.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart30id.gif)
I thought so.

Can't seem to bust the $20.00 resistance today. If that's a s~h~s, then Dow Theory says we're looking at $16.70 here before too long.

[jiesen]

Weekly, ending July 22:
Byetta total 3877, new 3656. Symlin total 1132, new 925

This is not 100% verified, but probably correct. It's at least 10% over what was projected for the week based on daily script #'s. Definitely a reason for AMLN to be up 10% (or more) today.

UNCONFIRMED scrip #'s are as follows:

July 29
Byetta 4289 total, 4031 new (up from 3877,3658)

Symlin 1212 total, 991 new (up from 1132, 925)

AMLN is going to be HUGE!

edit-
Here is the updated scrip chart:
http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

This is exactly the kind of exposure that AMLN needs right now:

http://www.forbes.com/sciencesandmedicine/2004/03/22/cx_mh_0322graduates.html?partner=yahootix

[New-born baby]

Looks like the short term is $17.
http://img229.imageshack.us/img229/7591/chart15dw.th.gif (http://img229.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15dw.gif)

[jiesen]

Do you really believe AMLN will go to $17 because the chart says it will? And are you still holding your AMLN position? Or are you just fretting about your position because it's under water?

I would seriously warn against going short AMLN over the weekend. New scrip numbers will be out on Monday before market opens, and if you're caught short on a day that the planets align in just the right way (the numbers happen to be huge that day, and the other shorts all notice it at the same time) then God help you.

[jiesen]

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortint&timeframe=&intraday=&charttype=&splits=&earnings=&movingaverage=&lowerstudy=&comparison=&index=&symbol=amln&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=AMLN

Note that AMLN's short interest is at an extreme high of 26M shares. Just because everyone's doing it doesn't make it a smart move.

[New-born baby]

Do you really believe AMLN will go to $17 because the chart says it will? And are you still holding your AMLN position? Or are you just fretting about your position because it's under water?

I would seriously warn against going short AMLN over the weekend. New scrip numbers will be out on Monday before market opens, and if you're caught short on a day that the planets align in just the right way (the numbers happen to be huge that day, and the other shorts all notice it at the same time) then God help you.

Jiesen,
I didn't short AMLN. I am just saying what the chart says, which is it looks like it cannot bust $20 resistance at this time, and is headed South. That's all.

Hey, I know I am posting bile today, but it isn't meant to attack anyone. BHMC, TOL, KBH, AMLN, CIB,VPHM--the charts are not pretty today. I am just posting what they say.

Fundamentally, you are much smarter than I. I appreciate your counterpoint.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I didn't short AMLN. I am just saying what the chart says, which is it looks like it cannot bust $20 resistance at this time, and is headed South. That's all.

Hey, I know I am posting bile today, but it isn't meant to attack anyone. BHMC, TOL, KBH, AMLN, CIB,VPHM--the charts are not pretty today. I am just posting what they say.

Fundamentally, you are much smarter than I. I appreciate your counterpoint.

yeah, I understand, believe me. the crappy market conditions today will do that to ya. But AMLN is one of just a few (NGPS included!) of my stocks holding up- even green still- with all of the selling going on.

maybe if oil would stop setting new highs every freaking day, we could return to our regularly scheduled bullish programming.

[New-born baby]

yeah, I understand, believe me. the crappy market conditions today will do that to ya. But AMLN is one of just a few (NGPS included!) of my stocks holding up- even green still- with all of the selling going on.

maybe if oil would stop setting new highs every freaking day, we could return to our regularly scheduled bullish programming.

Incredibly, even some of the oil stocks are down today. EENC for example.
So much for a bullish Friday. :(

[jiesen]

on that note, I don't think I'll be selling my ARLP even when it hits my previously stated $100 target. I don't want to be caught "energyless" when oil hits $100/bbl!

[New-born baby]

on that note, I don't think I'll be selling my ARLP even when it hits my previously stated $100 target. I don't want to be caught "energyless" when oil hits $100/bbl!

Jiesen,
You're a smart FA guy. FDG is expected to split 2 for 1, or 3 for 1 soon. Expected to pay a $20 divy in 2006. Current price is $105. Sister to ARLP.
What does a guy like you think of FDG?

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You're a smart FA guy. FDG is expected to split 2 for 1, or 3 for 1 soon. Expected to pay a $20 divy in 2006. Current price is $105. Sister to ARLP.
What does a guy like you think of FDG?

Well, on the surface, FDG looks ok to me. Splits of course make absolutely no difference to a FA driven investor like me. Dividends do matter, but if there's going to be a big one for some special reason, and especially if it's common knowledge, that won't send me out running to buy the stock. $20 is quite a bit higher than their regular $4 dividend, and I doubt it's sustainable any more than FRO's $22 dividend this year is. Of course, I'm not stating that unequivocally, as I haven't read any of their financials, like I have with ARLP. For me, I already own a coal stock, and to buy another right now doesn't make too much sense, especially since prices are at a point where I was just about to sell, not buy. But if I had to take ARLP's gains off the table, and put it into another coal, FDG might be a good one to pick, considering that ARLP may have gotten a bit ahead lately- it looks that way here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=3m&s=FDG&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=arlp

but maybe ARLP is just outperforming because it's a better business model...
I bought ARLP because it meets $$MM's stringent criteria for a 15% gain. FDG doesn't, because it lost money in 2002. Maybe that doesn't really matter, but then again, maybe it does! The revenues are growing nicely, but earnings are a little sporadic. I kept ARLP because the more I learn about it, the better I like having it in my portfolio- and I really don't want to give up my only energy stock. I've done that every time I've bought one, simply because my target was hit early, and I was out! I don't know enough about FDG to say either way, but it is a Canadian stock, and there is also some risk inherent in that. I owned PVX about 2 years ago, but sold it when I heard that they were going to restrict foreign ownership (me) from owning it because it had approached the 50% Canadian owned "limit" they have for it. What a bummer that turned out to be:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PVX&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Anyway, I'm happy with ARLP, and probably won't give any other coal stocks too much attention in the short term, so if you do decide to go with FDG, good luck with it!

[New-born baby]

Nice recovery this afternoon.

[jiesen]

Check these numbers out:

Byetta Aug 5 weekly 5181 total, 4753 new
Symlyn Aug 5 weekly 1334 total, 1007 new

[jiesen]

That's an increase of 21% for Byetta and 10% for Symlin, over the previous week. This is HUGE!

[jiesen]

Naked short list, that is:

http://www.buyins.net/tools/short_list.php?dys=1

[New-born baby]

Naked short list, that is:

http://www.buyins.net/tools/short_list.php?dys=1

Jiesen,
What is the naked short list? A recommended list of stocks to short?

[dmk112]

Jiesen,
What is the naked short list? A recommended list of stocks to short?


Naked shorts I think occur when you borrow shares to short that don't exist...basically it is illegal

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
What is the naked short list? A recommended list of stocks to short?

Basically, it's a list of stocks that have already been shorted to the hilt. So much so, that brokers have been failing to deliver the shares they're shorting. This is illegal, but so far, the only thing the SEC has done about it is to make a list of the stocks that are being shorted illegally. AMLN qualifies for this honor.

[df21084]

Basically, it's a list of stocks that have already been shorted to the hilt. So much so, that brokers have been failing to deliver the shares they're shorting. This is illegal, but so far, the only thing the SEC has done about it is to make a list of the stocks that are being shorted illegally. AMLN qualifies for this honor.

So, how can I use this list to my advantage? It would seem that brokers would have to buy shares at the market to cover the naked short, since they can't borrow them anywhere else. And if that's the case, wouldn't these be perfect long opportunities? Are these assumptions correct?

[New-born baby]

Basically, it's a list of stocks that have already been shorted to the hilt. So much so, that brokers have been failing to deliver the shares they're shorting. This is illegal, but so far, the only thing the SEC has done about it is to make a list of the stocks that are being shorted illegally. AMLN qualifies for this honor.

If that is the case, AMLN is a screaming BUY! I love to get in before the short squeeze pops these things like a bottle rocket.

[jiesen]

So, how can I use this list to my advantage? It would seem that brokers would have to buy shares at the market to cover the naked short, since they can't borrow them anywhere else. And if that's the case, wouldn't these be perfect long opportunities? Are these assumptions correct?

That's the theory, but I'm not sure you can correctly assume all of that. The SHO regulation states that the market makers coming up short these securities are obligated to cover after 13 days of failed delivery. However, I think in practice, this isn't happening... yet. I have a feeling it will work itself out eventually, when enough shareholders make a big enough stink about their shares being counterfeited to break the lucrative tie between government regulators and the Wall Street insiders. Some people think OSTK's CEO is nutty, but I consider him a hero for drawing attention to the issue.

[jiesen]

Check these numbers out:

Byetta Aug 5 weekly 5181 total, 4753 new
Symlyn Aug 5 weekly 1334 total, 1007 new

Unconfirmed Byetta scrip number for week ending 8/12 is 5782, which is a 12% increase over last week.

[drutzen]

just out and made AMLN jump a dollar after hours. yippy

Once Weekly Exenatide LAR Well Tolerated and Improved Glucose Control; Preliminary Results From Phase 2 Study Announced
Business Wire - August 22, 2005 16:30

SAN DIEGO, INDIANAPOLIS and CAMBRIDGE, Mass., Aug 22, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc., (Nasdaq: AMLN), Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and Alkermes, Inc. (Nasdaq: ALKS) today announced results from the ongoing Phase 2 multi-dose study of a long-acting release (LAR) formulation of BYETTA(TM) (exenatide) injection in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The study was designed to assess the safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of exenatide LAR given once a week. After 15 weeks, both doses of exenatide LAR were well tolerated and expected therapeutic blood levels of exenatide were achieved. Dose-dependent improvements in hemoglobin A1C (A1C) and weight were observed.

A1C, a measure of glucose control, improved approximately 2 percent for subjects receiving the high dose of exenatide LAR, compared to placebo. At the beginning of the study, the average A1C of study participants was approximately 8.5 percent. The decrease in A1C was progressive with no evidence of a plateau at week 15. Twelve of the 14 high-dose subjects who entered the study with an A1C greater than 7 percent achieved an A1C of 7 percent or less at 15 weeks. None of the 14 subjects receiving placebo achieved that target. The American Diabetes Association recommends a target A1C of less than 7 percent.

Fasting blood glucose concentrations were reduced by approximately 50 mg/dL for subjects in the high dose group compared to those receiving placebo. Subjects in this group experienced an average weight reduction of approximately 9 pounds compared to those receiving placebo.

The most common adverse event was mild nausea, which occurred in approximately 20 percent of subjects in the high dose group compared to approximately 7 percent in the placebo group. No severe gastrointestinal side effects were reported. No severe hypoglycemia was reported, and no subjects receiving exenatide LAR withdrew because of adverse events.

This Phase 2, randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind study includes 45 subjects with type 2 diabetes who were not achieving adequate glucose control using diet and exercise with or without metformin. Subjects were randomized to receive 15 once-weekly subcutaneous injections of exenatide LAR at one of two doses or placebo. At this time, study participants have completed the active dosing period. Subjects will be observed for an additional 12 weeks with follow-up observations and data analyses ongoing. The companies anticipate that the full study results will be presented in a future scientific forum.

On April 28, 2005, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved twice daily exenatide under the trade name BYETTA(TM) (exenatide) injection for use by people with type 2 diabetes who are unsuccessful at controlling their blood sugar levels despite using commonly prescribed oral medications metformin, a sulfonylurea, or both. Amylin, Lilly, and Alkermes are working together to develop a sustained release, subcutaneous injection of exenatide for the treatment of type 2 diabetes based on Alkermes' proprietary Medisorb(R) injectable long-acting release drug delivery technology. Exenatide LAR has not been approved by the FDA for marketing in the United States.

About BYETTA

BYETTA is the first in a new class of drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes called incretin mimetics and exhibits many of the same effects as the human incretin hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1). GLP-1, secreted in response to food intake, has multiple effects on the intestine, liver, pancreas and brain that work in concert to improve blood sugar.(1)

About Incretin Mimetics

Incretin mimetics is a new class of treatment in the fight against diabetes. An incretin mimetic works to mimic the anti-diabetic or glucose-lowering actions of naturally occurring human hormones called incretins. These actions include stimulating the body's ability to produce insulin in response to elevated levels of blood sugar, inhibiting the release of a hormone called glucagon following meals, slowing the rate at which nutrients are absorbed into the bloodstream and reducing food intake. BYETTA is the first FDA-approved agent of this new class of medications.

About Diabetes

Diabetes affects an estimated 194 million adults worldwide(2) and more than 18 million in the United States.(3) Approximately 90-95 percent of those affected have type 2 diabetes, a condition where the body does not produce enough insulin and/or the cells in the body do not respond normally to insulin.(3) Diabetes is the fifth leading cause of death by disease in the United States(4) and costs approximately $132 billion per year in direct and indirect medical expenses. Type 2 diabetes usually occurs in adults over the age of 40, but is increasingly common in younger people.(3)

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, approximately 60 percent of diabetes patients do not achieve target A1C levels (less than 7.0 percent according to American Diabetes Association guidelines(5)) with their current treatment regimen.(6)

Important Safety Information for BYETTA(TM) (exenatide) injection

BYETTA(TM) (exenatide) injection improves blood sugar control in patients with type 2 diabetes who are taking metformin, a sulfonylurea, or both. BYETTA is not a substitute for insulin in patients whose diabetes requires insulin treatment. BYETTA is not recommended for use in patients with severe problems digesting food or those who have severe disease of the stomach or kidney. BYETTA has not been studied in children or pregnant women.

When BYETTA is used with a medicine that contains a sulfonylurea, low blood sugar (hypoglycemia) is a possible side effect. To reduce this possibility, the dose of sulfonylurea medicine may need to be reduced while using BYETTA. Other common side effects with BYETTA include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, dizziness, headache, feeling jittery, and acid stomach. Nausea is most common when first starting BYETTA, but decreases over time in most patients. BYETTA may reduce appetite, the amount of food eaten, and body weight. No changes in dose are needed for these side effects. These are not all the side effects with BYETTA. A health care provider should be consulted about any side effect that is bothersome or does not go away.

For complete safety profile and other important prescribing considerations, visit www.BYETTA.com.

About Amylin, Lilly, and Alkermes

Amylin Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company committed to improving lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of innovative medicines. Amylin has developed and gained approval for two first-in-class medicines for diabetes, SYMLIN(R) (pramlintide acetate) injection and BYETTA(TM) (exenatide) injection. Further information on Amylin Pharmaceuticals and its pipeline in metabolism is available at www.amylin.com.

Through a long-standing commitment to diabetes care, Lilly provides patients with breakthrough treatments that enable them to live longer, healthier and fuller lives. Since 1923, Lilly has been the industry leader in pioneering therapies to help health care professionals improve the lives of people with diabetes, and research continues on innovative medicines to address the unmet needs of patients. For more information about Lilly's current diabetes products visit www.lillydiabetes.com.

Lilly, a leading innovation-driven corporation, is developing a growing portfolio of first-in-class and best-in-class pharmaceutical products by applying the latest research from its own worldwide laboratories and from collaborations with eminent scientific organizations. Headquartered in Indianapolis, Ind., Lilly provides answers - through medicines and information - for some of the world's most urgent medical needs. Additional information about Lilly is available at www.lilly.com.

Alkermes, Inc. is a pharmaceutical company that develops products based on sophisticated drug delivery technologies to enhance therapeutic outcomes in major diseases. The Company's lead commercial product is the first and only long-acting atypical antipsychotic medication approved for use in schizophrenia. The Company's lead proprietary product candidate, Vivitrex(R) (naltrexone long-acting injection), is being developed as a once-monthly injection for the treatment of alcohol dependence. The Company has a pipeline of extended-release injectable products and pulmonary drug products based on its proprietary technology and expertise. Alkermes' product development strategy is twofold: the Company partners its proprietary technology systems and drug delivery expertise with several of the world's finest pharmaceutical companies and it also develops novel, proprietary drug candidates for its own account. The Company's headquarters are in Cambridge, Massachusetts, and it operates research and manufacturing facilities in Massachusetts and Ohio.

This press release contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. There can be no assurance that actual results will not differ materially from the forward-looking statements discussed in this press release. These forward-looking statements include risks and uncertainties that current or future clinical trials will confirm the results referred to in this release or that the multi-dose trial will be completed when planned, risks and uncertainties inherent in the collaboration with and dependence upon Lilly, Amylin and/or Alkermes; risks and uncertainties regarding the drug discovery and development process, including whether the LAR version of BYETTA will receive regulatory approvals or prove to be commercially successful. These and additional risks and uncertainties are described more fully in Amylin, Lilly and Alkermes' filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including Amylin's recently filed Form 10-Q. The parties undertake no duty to update forward-looking statements.

P-LLY

REFERENCES

(1) Kolterman, O, Buse J, Fineman M, Gaines E, Heintz S, Bicsak T, Taylor K, Kim D, Aisporna M, Wang Y, Baron A. Synthetic exendin-4 (exenatide) significantly reduces postprandial and fasting glucose in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism. 2003; 88(7):3082-3089.

(2) The International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas. Available at: www.idf.org/home/index.cfm?unode=3B96906B-C026-2FD3-87B73F80BC22682A. Accessed April 12, 2005.

(3) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Diabetes Fact Sheet. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/diabetes/pubs/pdf/ndfs_2003.pdf.

(4) Kochanek KD, Murphy SL, Anderson RN, Scott C. Deaths: Final data for 2002. National vital statistics reports; vol 53 no 5. Hyattsville, Maryland: National Center for Health Statistics. 2004.

(5) American Diabetes Association. Standards of medical care in diabetes. Diabetes Care 2005;28:S4-36S.

(6) Harris MI, Eastman RC, Cowie CC, Flegal KM, Eberhardt MS. Racial and ethnic differences in glycemic control of adults with type 2 diabetes. Diabetes Care. 1999;22:403-408.

SOURCE: Alkermes, Inc.

Amylin
Mark Foletta, 858-552-2200
or
Lilly
Scott MacGregor, 317-651-1494
or
Alkermes
Jaren Madden, 617-583-6402

Copyright Business Wire 2005 ************************************************** ******************** As of Thursday, 08-18-2005 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated a DOWNTREND on 08-17-2005 for ALKS @ $15.31. As of Thursday, 08-18-2005 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 08-03-2005 for AMLN @ $21.42. As of Thursday, 08-18-2005 23:59, the latest Comtex SmarTrend(SM) Alert, an automated pattern recognition system, indicated an UPTREND on 07-11-2005 for LLY @ $56.50. (C) 2005 Comtex News Network, Inc. All rights reserved.

[jiesen]

Excellent find. I hadn't noticed that until you just posted it. Now it's up nearly $2 in AH trading. This turned an otherwise blah day for me into quite a happy one. I'm still smarting from the MRK verdict-- that's tough to get over, but this news sure helps...

go AMLN!

[jiesen]

Excellent find. I hadn't noticed that until you just posted it. Now it's up nearly $2 in AH trading. This turned an otherwise blah day for me into quite a happy one. I'm still smarting from the MRK verdict-- that's tough to get over, but this news sure helps...

go AMLN!

oops, correction! RTQ says up $3 now!

[drutzen]

wish I had a few more shares, but I believe the thanks still goes to you, as I bought back in the teens when you first mentioned it. Tempted to play ah
THanks


btw, ALKS is ticking up finally also

[jiesen]

wish I had a few more shares, but I believe the thanks still goes to you, as I bought back in the teens when you first mentioned it. Tempted to play ah
THanks


btw, ALKS is ticking up finally also

yeah, I'm tempted too. Seeing the BxA at around 26 makes me want to throw an ask out there for 27 just for fun. I just might do that....

[jiesen]

woah! I put an ask out for about $27 and someone just snapped them up! didn't expect that, but I'll take it- almost a 40% profit on those shares... I'll look to get them back tomorrow, if we're still in the 20's then. Otherwise, I'll just hang on to the ones I've got left (about half) until I see $40 or so.

Now I'm doing the Happy Snoopy Dance, too!

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
Thank You for the beautiful call on AMLN! No doubt my shares will be gone tomorrow as today I sold the Jan$25Calls for $2.10, giving me $27.10 per share. Still a good profit.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
Thank You for the beautiful call on AMLN! No doubt my shares will be gone tomorrow as today I sold the Jan$25Calls for $2.10, giving me $27.10 per share. Still a good profit.

you're very welcome! see, trading without stops can be fun!

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
you know the drug sector better than anyone on this board: VRTX. Supposed to have a blockbuster drug. What is your read on this one? Could be the next AMLN--

[Websman]

Great job Jiesen! I should have joined in with you.

ELN should will be the next one to pop. Good news should be out soon. :)

[Websman]

AMLN Up $5.55 AH. Will it continue? Stay tunend...

[jiesen]

I don't know too much about VRTX except that they work on HIV treatments, but I'll take a look at them tonight. Speaking of HIV research, there's a pretty siginifanct breakthrough happening courtesy of Panacos today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PANC&t=5d

[B.J]

Great job Jiesen! I should have joined in with you.

ELN should will be the next one to pop. Good news should be out soon. :)
I second that. Excellent job Jiesen, and Sounds like Newborn nullified his KBH episode - and then some.

[skiracer]

Jiesen,
Thank You for the beautiful call on AMLN! No doubt my shares will be gone tomorrow as today I sold the Jan$25Calls for $2.10, giving me $27.10 per share. Still a good profit.

NB
Just curious but what time did you sell those calls today. Quite a bet on your part no.

[Websman]

AMLN Up $5.55 AH. Will it continue? Stay tunend...

Up $6.13 and climbing...

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Since you are the resident med stock person, what in he%# am I doing wrong? My timing is nearly 100% off on all medical related stocks. If I would post my buys, just do the opposite and you'll get rich. Have lost on BLUD HLEX OMI and others that invariably drop when I buy and soar when I sell. Maybe it's a "sector jinx" . Anyone else have such problems ?

billyjoe

[New-born baby]

NB
Just curious but what time did you sell those calls today. Quite a bet on your part no.

Ski,
I sold covered calls on all my shares about 1 p.m. today. I got $2.10 per share for the January $25 calls. I figured I'd be happy with $27.10 per share. I didn't think I'd have that money in less than 24 hours. Today's action wasn't inspiring. AMLN finished down for the day in regular trading. But hey, 16% profit isn't too bad for a month's worth of investing.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
Since you are the resident med stock person, what in he%# am I doing wrong? My timing is nearly 100% off on all medical related stocks. If I would post my buys, just do the opposite and you'll get rich. Have lost on BLUD HLEX OMI and others that invariably drop when I buy and soar when I sell. Maybe it's a "sector jinx" . Anyone else have such problems ?

billyjoe

Of course we do. The question is this: what are we going to do when the trade goes against us? If you nail the perfect entry, you jump out with little pain. If not, (most of us do not nail the perfect entry), then you better have another plan. You know what my plan is? I sell covered calls. I figure that if the stock backtracks, I took their money. If the stock surges ahead, I can buy more shares. But you are not jinxed; you just need to do what you do with your other business: figure out how to make money anyhow. And I have confidence in you!

[New-born baby]

I don't know too much about VRTX except that they work on HIV treatments, but I'll take a look at them tonight. Speaking of HIV research, there's a pretty siginifanct breakthrough happening courtesy of Panacos today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PANC&t=5d

Stupid here. I was advised to buy Panacos about two weeks ago, but no, I wouldn't put my money down on it. DUH!

This VRTX is supposed to be one hot stock soon. I would appreciate hearing what the Dr. says about the company. And thank you again!

[jiesen]

Stupid here. I was advised to buy Panacos about two weeks ago, but no, I wouldn't put my money down on it. DUH!

This VRTX is supposed to be one hot stock soon. I would appreciate hearing what the Dr. says about the company. And thank you again!

Glad you respect my opinion on these things, NBB, but don't go giving me a big head about it all just yet. I'm a far cry from a Dr. and that's essentially what you'll need to really evaluate VRTX, or any other biotech/pharma company for that matter. I do know a bit more than the average guy about AMLN, since I happen to have worked on both their Byetta and Symlin projects as a contract chemist, and had a chance to learn what promise these drugs actually have for patients- so I realized that approval without an increase in stock price was an opportunity I should jump on. And I did. But I don't think that qualifies me to judge the pipelines of every other biotech out there. That said, I'll give you what I think about VRTX:

I give it one thumb up for the finances. Being a development-stage company there aren't really any revenues, but they seem to have raising funds down so that they'll be around long enough to see at least some of their projects to fruition- probably. The stock has pulled back tremendously from the $100 highs, and has also recovered nicely from an $8 low, to around $18, which I would say is as good a place as any to enter, if you expect them to pull through everything and come out with a drug or two, like AMLN did. Question is: Can they?

To that I'll have to give you a big Question Mark, as I honestly can't say what their pipeline is worth- seeing how many and how diverse their potential products are. They may be biting off more than they can chew- they're coming up with drugs for everything from HCV, to HIV, cancer and even inflammation and infections. The good thing is they're partnering on many of these, so they'll be more likely to stay in business to finish them. You really need to dig down and find what the market is for all of these products they have is likely to be, and how close they are to getting to the final step in that multi-decade regulatory cycle that the FDA puts every biotech through. It looks like most are phase I, or II products, and I don't see any that are likely to be brought to market any time soon (within 3-5 years is soon) so you'll probably be waiting awhile and see the stock take multiple dives probably down 20% in a day or 50% over a month on bad news before you ever see it rise back to new highs again- and that's just the nature of these types of stocks.

If you're satisfied with the value of their pipeline (and you shouldn't be based only on what I've said) then two ways I would suggest to play this would be:
1) buy now- only a small portion- and forget about it for 3 years minimum, check out the price, and if they haven't made much progress, sell, otherwise keep holding for another 3 years.
2) wait until some really bad news comes out that turns people away from this stock (temporarily) and try to snatch some up at a good price (maybe 40% or so below what you think it should sell for). Again don't spend all you intend, because it'll likely drop another 50% below that, and you can pick up more shares then. People tend to panic big-time when a biotech isssues disappointing news, and can send the prices to absolutely ridiculous lows. More often than not, it'll come roaring back when nobody's paying attention.

NBB, normally you should be really careful when trading on tips from other traders- not just because they could be wrong- but because often what works for one trader just might not work for you. However, I've known you to come up with some pretty good stocks on your tips (a few stinkers, too) but especially with FDG, which turned out to be a great call a few weeks ago, and the tip on PANC was also great (though I don't know how many others you got that might have been crap, and you probably don't remember either), so if your source really knows what he's saying about VRTX, maybe it is time to pick up some of those shares.

Oh, and did I mention that the recent ruling against MRK has got me down on all of biotech/pharma in general? If MRK goes down, it's going to take a lot more companies with it, since it'll be much more of a hurdle to get drugs to consumers and still turn a profit, when your company becomes liable for any death of a customer, whether a link can be scientifically established or not. Companies can try to raise prices to compensate for this risk, but in the end, the lawyers will bleed all of them so dry, investors will refuse to throw any more money at these stocks until something is done at the legislative level regarding tort reform to reduce the damage *currently being inflicted* on our country's leading industrial medical research teams by bloodthirsty class-action lawyers who can't wait to get in line for a $250M verdict against a sitting target like MRK (or PFE, or JNJ, or whoever happens to supply the next "evil" pill found to have an unacceptable side-effect). You may want to follow the MRK case a bit more closely before you decide to put any more long-term money into this sector. I know I am.

[skiracer]

Ski,
I sold covered calls on all my shares about 1 p.m. today. I got $2.10 per share for the January $25 calls. I figured I'd be happy with $27.10 per share. I didn't think I'd have that money in less than 24 hours. Today's action wasn't inspiring. AMLN finished down for the day in regular trading. But hey, 16% profit isn't too bad for a month's worth of investing.

As long as they're covered calls you're in good shape. Nice play NB.

[New-born baby]

Stupid here. I was advised to buy Panacos about two weeks ago, but no, I wouldn't put my money down on it. DUH!

This VRTX is supposed to be one hot stock soon. I would appreciate hearing what the Dr. says about the company. And thank you again!

Jiesen:
Here's some more "dope" on VRTX. [Pun intended].
Key Information:

************************************************** *******

Fundamental:

Sector: Healthcare
Industry: Drug Manufacturer

Liquidity:
Market Capitalization: $1.80 Billion
Average daily volume (3-month): 1.598 Million Shares
Closing Stock Price: $18.80

Risk Proxies:
Beta (3-month): 2.3
Debt/Equity: 2.7
Profitable: No

Valuation:
Price/Sales: 12.28
Price/Book: 12.69
Price/Earnings: Negative
Price/2006 Analyst Earnings Estimates: Negative

Catalysts
Trading:

Institutional Trading

Recent institutional trading has been overwhelmingly positive: 25,903,126 shares were recently bought, much greater than the 7,869,241 shares that were sold.

Short Ratio

8.57 million shares were sold short as of the 12th of July; this represents more than 5 days of the normal trading volume. Short-covering could cause a further substantial rise in stock price.

Pritamani and Singal:

On Friday, VRTX rose nearly 15% on volume that was 4.68 times the 3-month average. The rise was in reaction to an upgrade by JP Morgan that was based on favorable results with the company’s Hepatitis C drug. The upgrade increased the rating from neutral to overweight.

According to a study by Pritamani and Singal (see above) a high volume and positive stock price reaction to analyst news is a positive signal for stocks.



Contrary Information
Trading:

Insider Trading

The CEO and the President of VRTX both sold shares this year. In total, 127,100 shares were sold, with a total value of $1,767,372. This is a negative signal.

************************************************** ******

Now, you see that the institutions are buying the shares up in a big way. That ought to be interesting to you. The insider selling does not bother me on this one; these guys are just taking their pay.

[jiesen]

Cramer was upbeat and happy about the good clinical trial results for Amylin Pharma (AMLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amln)) drug Byetta. Cramer suggested that investors take half there positions off the table and let the rest run. The stock was up huge after hours.

from:

http://www.maddmoney.blogspot.com/

I hate it when that jackass and I are on the same page.

[New-born baby]

Cramer was upbeat and happy about the good clinical trial results for Amylin Pharma (AMLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amln)) drug Byetta. Cramer suggested that investors take half there position off the table

Well, if everybody takes half off the table, AMLN is going to drop quite a bit.
My covered called has not been exercised as of right now. I still have my shares--thus far.

[Websman]

Cramer was upbeat and happy about the good clinical trial results for Amylin Pharma (AMLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amln)) drug Byetta. Cramer suggested that investors take half there positions off the table and let the rest run. The stock was up huge after hours.

from:

http://www.maddmoney.blogspot.com/

I hate it when that jackass and I are on the same page.

If Cramer likes it, I would....SELL SELL SELL!

Calling Cramer a jackass is an understatement. He's not only a jackass, he's a clown and a stooge.

[jiesen]

If Cramer likes it, I would....SELL SELL SELL!

Calling Cramer a jackass is an understatement. He's not only a jackass, he's a clown and a stooge.

Yep, and a few other things I would have preferred to call him, but I didn't deem appropriate language for this forum.

[jiesen]

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?searchby=Detail&IssueID=15312

Another million shares short this month, already getting pounded for a 30% loss!
Oh the carnage! :)

I wonder where AMLN will be after they finally give up and cover...

[Websman]

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/asp/short_interest_resp.asp?searchby=Detail&IssueID=15312

Another million shares short this month, already getting pounded for a 30% loss!
Oh the carnage! :)

I wonder where AMLN will be after they finally give up and cover...

If I was in their shoes, I'd would have already gave up before I lost my ass.

[Websman]

Man, I wish I would have got in. This thing is going crazy!

[New-born baby]

Man, I wish I would have got in. This thing is going crazy!
Due for a major pullback.

[jiesen]

Due for a major pullback.

I wouldn't count on it. Maybe there'll be a major pullback from the 40's, or 50's but not just yet. I think my AH sell at 27 will turn out to be one of my biggest mistakes, and seeing that Cramer was suggesting everybody do that, just confirmed my suspicion that it was wrong to sell it there. I thought I'd get right back in at 25 the next day, but I think I might have just stepped halfway off a speeding train. We'll see where it ends up, though. It'll definitely be quite a ride.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,

You know I think you are a great FA guy, don't you? I like your recommend of AMLN. But I hereby announce that on Friday, AUGUST 26, 2005, AMLN is going to pull back.

She's been up 10 days in a row. She's been up 11 of last 12 days. She's got to rest sooner or later. So I say, tomorrow is as good a day as any. :D
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/7831/chart13im.th.gif (http://img219.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13im.gif)
This chart big enough, or too big, for you? Let me know.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

You know I think you are a great FA guy, don't you? I like your recommend of AMLN. But I hereby announce that on Friday, AUGUST 26, 2005, AMLN is going to pull back.


Hmm, I know you meant to say that just about everything would pull back on Friday, but AMLN would be up yet again, right?

Go AMLN!

[New-born baby]

Hmm, I know you meant to say that just about everything would pull back on Friday, but AMLN would be up yet again, right?

Go AMLN!

And my other prediction, that TOL would be up something, even 1 cent, turned out to be awfully wrong too. Greenspan came out today and denounced the real estate bubble. We are going to have a crash now for sure.

[jiesen]

And my other prediction, that TOL would be up something, even 1 cent, turned out to be awfully wrong too. Greenspan came out today and denounced the real estate bubble. We are going to have a crash now for sure.

Greenspan isn't any more clairvoyant than you are, NBB. Just because he worries about housing prices doesn't mean we're due for a crash (we could very well be, though). I think that his bringing it up is a good thing, if it causes a little pull-back short term, brought on by the most easily panicked traders. Sort of like letting some air out of overinflated tires. Better this than ignoring it completely, and waiting until it pops. By being cautious about it, we could take some of the hit today, and avoid some volatility down the road. Everyone still needs a house, and it doesn't do anyone any good to see the market tank 50% just to see it rebound over the next few years.

[jiesen]

By the way, my biggest stock position by far, LJPC, another biotech/pharm is up nearly 10% today! Go LJPC! :)

[skiracer]

Greenspan isn't any more clairvoyant than you are, NBB. Just because he worries about housing prices doesn't mean we're due for a crash (we could very well be, though). I think that his bringing it up is a good thing, if it causes a little pull-back short term, brought on by the most easily panicked traders. Sort of like letting some air out of overinflated tires. Better this than ignoring it completely, and waiting until it pops. By being cautious about it, we could take some of the hit today, and avoid some volatility down the road. Everyone still needs a house, and it doesn't do anyone any good to see the market tank 50% just to see it rebound over the next few years.

Cheap an easily obtainable money made it easy to buy a house for most people who initially probably didn't have enough for a decent 20 % normal down payment. Alot of them couldn't furnish the house once they owned it and were in on adjustable rate mortgages. Now the shit is going to hit the fan because of a number of reasons. #1 being the country is in debt big time an 95% of the people here are in debt way over their heads and leveraged to the hilt. The housing sector has been one of the driving factors. Just because people need a home or place to live doesn't justify anything especially the run up in the stock prices of that sector. They are still going to be building homes but the prices are going to have to come back to reality which will effect their bottom line.

[jiesen]

Unconfirmed Byetta scripts for the week ending 8/19 totaled 6,725 (up from 5,782), or an increase of 16%.

Byetta is on track for very impressive growth, indeed. Go AMLN!

[jiesen]

I'll repost the projection link, as this has been updated with new data:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

Here is an interesting note on AMLN finances courtesy of BostonMatty1 on the Yahoo! board. According to this, if AMLN trades any higher these could convert to equity, and essentially wipe out most of AMLN's debt (in exchange for dilution). This could really clean up the balance sheet, just as revenues begin to roll in, making the stock even more attractive to the folks who care about things like earnings and book value.

http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&mid=138634&sid=7076553

Re: Effect of convertible debt certifica
by: bostonmatty1 (57/M/Central CT)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/23/05 07:16 am
Msg: 138634 of 141921

200 million at $34.35 = 5.822 million, 2.25%
175 million at $32.55 = 5.376 million, 2.5%


11.199 million shares if converted

The first convertible has mandatory conversion stipulations in the covenant; the second does not.

If conversion occurs, that saves AMLN $8.875 million before taxes.

It would increase the number of oustanding shares to around 115 million.

The buyers of these convertibles would likely hold on since they really wanted equity, not debt in AMLN and AMLN did not want to issue equity at such a low price.

Dilution occurs, but for now it dilutes a loss.

Since these were issued several years ago, the dilution should already be priced in; therefore the only bottom line effect would be the interest savings to AMLN and the 11% dilution in net income, which offset each other.

[Runner]

DRUGS:
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/7864/drugs0vs.png (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!

[Runner]

Runner, I like your bottom chart with the "Boom, Boom, and a right HOOK!" Reminds me of that old Nintendo boxing game... Stick it at 'em!


ha ha ha, now lets see the Drugs push on!! What a nice p/b to the 50

[Runner]

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/857/drugs6ik.png (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Cashmaker might back me up on this... I think CGTK looks interesting to me, too. I might have thrown a few bucks at it, if AMLN hadn't looked so good to me, but I still think you shouldn't count them out just yet. At 2.6, they only have a market cap of around $70M, well below the $80-90M net assets on the books. This means you can get their product for free right now- and if there's any value in what they're doing, as long as they don't just waste away all the money, this is a really safe time to buy it.

From what I can tell, there's a good market for their eczema product, and whether it works is still in question, but an answer should be forthcoming relatively soon. Any edge you can get on how it's coming along could be really helpful in deciding whether to go for this one or not.

At any rate, I think it's best to get in on these early, while they're still struggling- you can easily get a 5-10 bagger out of a good biotech, if you pick the right one early enough.

If you wait for it to finally take off (like VPHM or AMLN has) before you buy, you can get burned.

[jiesen]

Here is a few other DRUGS looking interesting

http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/857/drugs6ik.png (http://imageshack.us)

Of those I like:
AMLN
TEVA
AGN

I would probably stay away from MLNM

And I would avoid FRX like the plague.

Also, I am watching these:
ACAD
AKZOY
ANDS
LGNDE
MEDI
PDLI
STEM

JNJ is always a good bet, so is the currently battered PFE (unless the MRK situation continues to worsen, and the blood-suckers go after ALL cox-2 inhibitors).

[jiesen]

I think they did this a bit prematurely myself, but anyway you know this was coming:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050830/amylin_stock_offer.html?.v=1

Amylin Pharma to Sell 5.1 Million Shares
Tuesday August 30, 7:55 am ET Amylin Pharmaceuticals Plans Public Sale of 5.1 Million Shares for $152 Million in Proceeds


SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Tuesday it will sell about 5.07 million of its common shares at $31 apiece in a public offering, and expects to net $152 million in proceeds. Shares of Amylin, which currently has about 104.5 million common shares outstanding, fell $1.66, or 5.1 percent, to $31 in premarket activity.

[jiesen]

FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH
by: WCJumper (http://profiles.yahoo.com/WCJumper/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7076553%26tid=amln %26sid=7076553%26mid=142742&lg=us)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 08/31/05 08:30 pm
Msg: 142742 of 142743
I'm 70 years old.
Diabetes for 13 years.
On Lantus for the last year.
Gained 35 lbs, stayed hungry all the time.
Joints of fingers,arms,legs,shoulders & back
hurt all the time.
BS readings 160-200
A1c 8.6

Started Byetta 12 weeks ago.
On my third script.
I pay $214.99/pen.
I have lost 22lbs so far.
Am never hungry(eat to live, not live to eat)
Wife says I don't eat enough.
I feel great,pain gone from most joints (age still has its pain).
BS readings 121-141
A1c 7.8 yesterday.
Though A1c still high Dr. likes the weight loss and the way I feel.

I TELL EVERYONE I SEE ABOUT THIS PRODUCT
My former business partner and I loaded up on this stocks years ago. So I can pay my way.

Buy the stack.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=142742

[Runner]

DRUGS:
http://img148.imageshack.us/img148/7864/drugs0vs.png (http://imageshack.us)

Looks like 50dma got a little pop. Here is a DRUG update chart. Still bullish

http://img303.imageshack.us/img303/3803/drugs9yb.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I see a caution light on AMLN. Stock is moving higher on decreasing volume. I also see a possible tweezer top.

[rrezac]

Here is my 2 cents worth on Teva. Being a Walgreens pharmacist, I think they have a nice line of generic drugs. At different times as I scanned the inventory on our shelves I would think about investing in Teva. The problem is Walgreens switches generic companies often. A generic company who isn't willing to sell to Walgreens at a low price is running the risk of having their product line replaced by someone who is willing "to play ball" with Walgreens. (I think we recently switched from Teva's lisinopril to another manufacturer. See what Wal-Mart has taught us.)
I don't know how often the contracts are re-negotiated, but the competition between generic companies keeps the margins in-line for Walgreens. I am skiddish on investing in such a competitive group such as generic manufacturers. The companies are basically in constant bidding wars to try and gain market share as well as a litany lawsuits trying to bring products to market.
Companies like Amlyn, who actually develop and own the rights to drugs, are much more likely to turn into a profitable venture, in my opinion.

[jiesen]

Of those I like:
AMLN
TEVA
AGN

I would probably stay away from MLNM

And I would avoid FRX like the plague.

Also, I am watching these:
ACAD
AKZOY
ANDS
LGNDE
MEDI
PDLI
STEM

JNJ is always a good bet, so is the currently battered PFE (unless the MRK situation continues to worsen, and the blood-suckers go after ALL cox-2 inhibitors).

I think MEDI is popping up on a lot of screens as of today:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEDI&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

STEM also had a very positive development today as well.

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsmb/050831/c0535d381b9f4eff8cacbd91f9a07ac8.html?.v=1

And as Runner just mentioned, Drugs are having a great run at the moment.

[jiesen]

Numbers are still increasing, though at a bit more modest rate (5-10% weekly):

RX's
by: bostonmatty1 (http://profiles.yahoo.com/bostonmatty1/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7076553%26tid=amln %26sid=7076553%26mid=143394&lg=us) (57/M/Central CT)
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 09/06/05 08:29 am
Msg: 143394 of 143397
AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta in its thirteenth full week ending August 26 were 7,090, of which 6,110 were new prescriptions up from 6,725 total and 5,788 new Rxs respectively in the prior week. With 1-month starter packs being provided to key prescribers, we believe that these numbers
underestimate true patient starts.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending August 26 were 1,388 with new Rxs of 935, up from 1,331 total and 879 new Rxs in the prior week. Overall, well over 9,000 new prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its first three months of launch.

Re: Daily Rx - is schwarts1 around?
by: schwarts1 (http://profiles.yahoo.com/schwarts1/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7076553%26tid=amln %26sid=7076553%26mid=143395&lg=us) 09/06/05 08:35 am
Msg: 143395 of 143397
I am here. According to PJ, the daily cumulative Byetta script estimate for the week ending 9/2 was 7,861 (up from 6,480 in the week prior).

[jiesen]

Unconfirmed scrip number is down this week:

"According to PJ, Byetta scripts totalled 8,243 in the week ending 9/9 (holiday-shortened week; down from 8,813 in the week prior). The daily cumulative script estimate for the week ending 9/16 was 8,140 (7,830 was the week prior daily estimate)"

Doesn't look like a good week to me, but also doesn't change my opinion on my position.

[drutzen]

FYI did you see the STEM news???

Published Study Shows First Direct Link between Human Neural Stem Cells and Restored Motor Function in Spinal Cord Injured Mice; StemCells Inc.'s Adult Human Neural Stem Cells Regenerate Protective Layer Around Nerves Following Spinal Cord Injury
Business Wire - September 19, 2005 17:00

PALO ALTO, Calif., Sep 19, 2005 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- StemCells, Inc. (Nasdaq: STEM) today announced results of a published study that demonstrates that the Company's proprietary human neural stem cells restore the lost motor function of mice with spinal cord injuries. This study is also the first to show the causal relationship between transplanted human neural stem cells and long-term recovery of motor function: The human neural cells were subsequently ablated in some of the mice, and their improved motor function was lost.

The study was conducted by Drs. Aileen Anderson, Brian Cummings and their colleagues from the Reeve Irvine Research Center at the University of California, Irvine. It will be published today online in the Early Edition of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), and will appear in the September 27, 2005 print issue. The study was funded in part by a Small Business Innovative Research Grant from the National Institute of Health (NIH) to StemCells, Inc. Support was also provided by the Christopher Reeve Foundation through its International Research Consortium on Spinal Cord Injury.

As part of the study, human neural stem cells were transplanted into mice nine days after a spinal cord crush injury that results in hind limb paralysis. The mice were then observed and tested for sixteen weeks after the transplant. The transplanted mice showed significant improvement in their ability to walk compared to mice in two control groups, and the improvement persisted during the full term of the study. The treated mice had better weight-bearing ability and coordinated stepping using their hind limbs. Data gathered during the study shows that the transplanted human neural stem cells survived, produced new neural cells that integrated into the mouse spinal cord and reversed hind limb paralysis.

"While we are early in our quest to find a stem cell therapy for spinal cord injury, the design of this study raises the bar for evaluating experimental cell-based therapies in this extremely debilitating medical condition," said Martin McGlynn, President and Chief Executive Officer of StemCells. "The study clearly demonstrates that our proprietary human neural stem cells make functional new neural cells, and are responsible for the restoration of hind limb function in this animal model of spinal cord injury."

The human neural stem cells, when transplanted into the mouse spinal cord, become specialized new cells called oligodendrocytes that make myelin. Myelin forms a protective sheath that insulates nerve fibers that conduct electric signals for proper function. The newly formed human oligodendrocytes produced new myelin sheaths around damaged mouse axons. In addition, new human neurons were generated that formed synapses, a specialized junction linking one neuron to another.

Note to Journalists: The complete study is expected to be published online this week at www.pnas.org. For those wishing to see it prior to online publication, please e-mail stemcells@schwartz-pr.com.

About StemCells, Inc.

StemCells, Inc. is a development stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of stem cell-based therapies to treat diseases of the nervous system, liver and pancreas. The Company's stem cell programs seek to repair or repopulate neural or other tissue that has been damaged or lost as a result of disease or injury. StemCells is the first company to directly identify and isolate human neural stem cells from normal brain tissue. These stem cells are expandable into cell banks for therapeutic use, which demonstrates the feasibility of using normal, non-genetically modified cells as cell-based therapies. StemCells is the only publicly traded company solely focused on stem cell research and development and has more than 40 U.S. and 100 non-U.S. patents, as well as 100 patent applications pending worldwide. Further information about the Company is available on its web site at: www.stemcellsinc.com.

Apart from statements of historical facts, the text of this press release constitutes forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future business operations of StemCells, Inc. ("the Company") and its research and product development efforts. The forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this news release. StemCells does not undertake to update any of these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances that occur after the date hereof. Such

[jiesen]

I didn't see that. Thanks for pointing it out! That's fantastic news for people suffering from spinal cord injuries. I sure wish I'd picked up shares of STEM last week!

[jiesen]

9/16 Wk Rx: Byetta 10,749, Symlin 1713
Total prescriptions for Byetta in the week ending September 16 were 10,749, of which 8,935 were new prescriptions up from 8,243
total and 6,845 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.
Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending
September 16 were 1,713 with new Rxs of 1,074, up from 1,230 total and 748 new Rxs in the prior week.

[jiesen]

AMLN is making new all-time highs today after breaking past 33.4.

Makes me feel silly for selling half of my stock at 27. Oh well, go AMLN!!!

[jiesen]

Total prescriptions for Byetta the week ending September 23 were 10,971, of which 8,882 were new prescriptions up from 10,749 total and 8,935 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending September 23 were 1,714 with new Rxs of 1,071, up slightly from 1,713 total and 1,074 new Rxs in the prior week.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You're gonna get me interested in this one yet. What does Smylin do?
Make you happy all the time?



billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You're gonna get me interested in this one yet. What does Smylin do?
Make you happy all the time?



billyjoe

That's what it's been doing to me lately, anyway... but actually Symlin is an synthetic version of your body's natural horomone, amylin, which along with insulin is produced in the Islets of Langerhans. Diabetics usually have deficiencies in both insulin as well as amylin, so adding this drug to a diabetic's arsenal just makes sense. What all it does, is a bit more complicated- and I don't know it all offhand, but I do know it helps to maintain a better blood sugar level, and to reduce appetite- which is one of the main reasons patients are really liking the drug. Mostly, though, the drug has been shown to greatly improve patients general sense of well-being, more so than any hard reduction in mortality or other such numbers.

AMLN owns 100% of the revenue stream generated by Symlin. They are partnered with LLY on the bigger of their two current products, Byetta. If Symlin ends up taking off as much as Byetta has, AMLN could easily see $200/share. Also Byetta LAR has potential to greatly increase the potential for Byetta sales. There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on AMLN. I'll try to make a better case as I go...

[jiesen]

AMLN recently received approval for both of its main drug candidates. On approval, the stock traded down from the low $20s range to nearly $15, an absolutely insane price for a stock with 100M shares outstanding, and two new drugs each with billion-dollar potential. Currently, AMLN trades at $36 and is climbing steadily with 25M shorted shares dragging silly TA traders into an early retirement.

Early analyst projections downplayed the potential sales for Symlin and Byetta, claiming that the benefits were minimal, that inhaled insulin would compete, and patients are too afraid of needles to accept these drugs into their regimen. Well, actual results may vary! Patients are finding the needle to be no problem at all, and that the benefits of Byetta are far outweighing any inconvenience. Sales of Byetta are increasing at a rate of about 10% per week, putting Byetta on track for $100-150M this year, and likely more than double that in the next.

Symlin sales have been quite a bit slower than Byetta, to be sure, but the potential still exists for this drug to be as big a blockbuster as Byetta surely will be. Part of the success Byetta is having is due to the collaboration with LLY, and the effectiveness with which LLY is able to bring this drug to market. Once AMLN gets on the ball with their sales and marketing team, Symlin sales will be rising just as fast as Byetta.

I'm a chemist, Jim, not a doctor! So I can't pretend to explain to you how this drug works, but if you go check it out here:

http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incre....jsp?reqNavId=2 (http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incretin_mimetic.jsp?reqNavId=2)

you'll see how Byetta helps a diabetic's body regain the ability to regulate glucose on its own, as well as trigger a feeling of fullness which prevents a diabetic from overeating. This may be one of the drug's best selling points. As patient after patient loses his or her excess weight, word gets out that this stuff really does change a person's life around, and next thing you know, every overweight diabetic is demanding it.

So enough about the products- given that they're in huge demand, are extremely profitable, as proprietary drugs are- what about the numbers?

Well income statements from the past of course do not do AMLN justice.
They lost 110M, 120M, and 160M in the years ending 02, 03, and 04.And they'll likely continue to lose money for another couple or three years... BUT they've done this while keeping a very healthy balance sheet:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=AMLN

Check that out! They have a half a billion in cash and equivalents, but what about that $400M in debt you may ask? Gone! At today's stock price, that puts all of AMLN's debt as convertible to equity more valuable than the bond is worth. So you can forget about AMLN having any cash troubles... ever. If AMLN is good at one thing, it's been raising money. Whenever they've needed cash, they've found a way to get it, and that's paid off for them big-time.

Well, I'm getting tired writing this thing up, ($$MM I don't know how you manage to do this every time) but I do have a couple other things I want to mention... Byetta LAR is the next project they've got in the works, it's a once-a-week injection rather than the several times daily form it takes now. If this is shown to be just as effective, it will dramatically increase the patient acceptance, and therefore profits. Given the success AMLN has had previously with Symlin and Byetta, I say it's a cinch they'll get LAR approved. Not only this, but there are a few other candidates lurking behind the scenes, and I expect that Symlin and Byetta will not be the last drugs AMLN contributes to our world. AMLN will be joining the ranks of Amgen, Genentech, Biogen-Idec in short order, leaping to the $10B-$20B market cap range as sales climb into the billions.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
I once owned a stock headquartered at the Islets of Langerhans , but seriously, there was a report on the networks about an inhalable insulin that couldn't be regulated in the case of smokers. They inhaled too much or absorbed a dangerous dose or something strange like that. It does make sense that a long time smoker's uptake of anything inhalable might be out of the ordinary.

billyjoe

[drutzen]

why i bought it??????
the first time is because you told me to!!! :-)
the second time is because it held up nicely, and then sold when it was stalling. and then bought a lot more of the big jump day after hours and am holding it.
Missed a few points but biggy biggy hi ho thank you again

PS I did do some of my own dd too.

[jiesen]

Not fantatstic, but not bad either:

Byetta 11839 -- Symlin 1672
by: longamln (http://profiles.yahoo.com/longamln/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7076553%26tid=amln %26sid=7076553%26mid=148637&lg=us) (42/M/FL)
Long-Term Sentiment: Buy 10/10/05 10:35 am
Msg: 148637 of 148637
Investment Conclusion
AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs
Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta
in its eighteenth full week ending September 30
were 11,839, of which 9,225 were new
prescriptions up from 10,971 total and 8,882 new
Rxs respectively in the prior week. With 1-month
starter packs being provided to key prescribers,
we believe that these numbers underestimate true
patient starts.
Summary
! Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending
September 30 were 1,672 with new Rxs of 1,081,
down from 1,714 total and 1,071 new Rxs in the
prior week. Overall, over 14,000 new
prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its
first three months of launch.
! Overall, we remain encouraged by early Rx
trends, particularly for Byetta and expect the
significant acceleration to continue in October as
physician visits pick up after the summer and early
samples are converted into actual sales.
Reiterate 1-Overweight rating.

[jiesen]

Byetta in clinical practice has been quite interesting. The key effects of byetta are characterized by its effects on fasting blood glucose (FBS) and postprandial blood glucose (PPS):
(1) Delayed gastric emptying leading to improved glycemic index. (PPS)
(2) Restoration of first-phase insulin response which is lost in diabetics and absolutely critical for postprandial control. (PPS)
(3) Reduction in glucagon levels and therefore reduced fasting blood glucose by reduced hepatic glucose output. Uptitration leads to added benefit and further reduction of FBS. (FBS,PPS)
(4) Decrease feeling of hunger through CNS effects of byetta. (FBS,PPS)
(5) Preservation and possibly restoration of beta cell function. (FBS,PPS)

There are additional effects apparent in patients on byetta (clinical observations):
(1) Reduced dyspnea and improved breathing. Probably mediated by reduced insulin requirement. Insulin is antidiuretic leading to volumeexpansion.
(2) Reduced leg swelling. (insulin sparing)
(3) Reduced hunger (CNS effect; delayed gastric emptying)
(4) More energy (? mechanism)
(5) Feeling better: initially I thought that this is related to wt loss; however, having seen patients that ran out of byetta for a few days reporting increased depression, no agility, no persistence in finishing tasks I speculate if there is actually a different mechanism in play. One patient specifically felt dramatically better on byetta and lost all energy while off it and regained her "energy" immediately after going back on it. This effect was not glucose control or weight loss dependent. Byetta as "antidepressant"? Intriguing.
(6) Congestive heart failure: one patient was waiting for his mail order byetta after being on Byetta 5; After 2 weeks of waiting (off byetta) he had an exacerbation of CHF;
(7) Nausea; so far the only problem; about 2/3 of patients will not observe any nausea at all; the rest will have some but it usually tapers down within days; 2 patient had persistent nausea leading to discontinuation of byetta (one lost 7lb the other 18lb); this could be secondary to possible subclinical gastroparesis;
(8) Effects on medications: again the delayed gastric emptying may lead to delayed absorption of medication; one patient reported that "her water pill doesn't kick in until the afternoon"; after a change from AM to PM dosing the problem resolved; Interestingly, due to the circadian rhythm of blood pressure (high BP in the morning) I actually adjust some patients' BP meds to evening dosing with improved AM BP control.
(9) There is a beneficial effect on lipids using byetta with reduced triglycerides and LDL and a slight increase in HDL; I have seen reductions in CRP in some patients; all this data is preliminary; it appears that this effect is independent of wt loss, however, accelerated with wt loss.

from:
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=149239&um=52&.sig=VD2NIrPc.wBrmnB6r9A7Nw--

[jiesen]

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=149576

AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta in its nineteenth full week ending October 7 were 12,383, of which 9,263 were new prescriptions up from 11,839 total and 9,225 new Rxs respectively in the prior week.

Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ending October 7 were 1,746 with new Rxs of 1,016, up from 1,672 total and 1,081 new Rxs in the prior week. Overall, over 15,000 new prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its first three months of launch.

[spikefader]

In a tricky place count wise. Sets up aggressive long here, but I think it's worth waiting for the pullback on this occasion.
http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/6832/amlnoct176fv.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[BobS]

Today on Jim Cramer's "Mad Money", Senior MarketWatch columnist Herb Greenberg, citing increasing prescription volume for Byetta, suggested that AMLN could reach $100 - $200 in 3 - 4 years. Cramer, who advocated the stock in the high teens feels that it is time to "ring the register". Greenberg vehemently disagreed.

[jiesen]

But nevertheless, AMLN's results aren't as fantastic as I'd hoped:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/robertsteyer/10249709.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Amylin Sinks as Results Fall Short
http://www.thestreet.com/tsc/c.gif
By Robert Steyer (http://apps.thestreet.com/cms/email/yahooEmailStory.do?storyId=10249709&authorId=1006570&storyUrl=/_yahoo/stocks/robertsteyer/10249709.html)
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
10/26/2005 6:27 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Robert Steyer (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/author/?au=A1006570)
Updated from 5:03 p.m. EDT

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN (http://tools.thestreet.com/rmy/quotes.html?pg=qcn&symb=AMLN):Nasdaq - commentary (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/find/results.html?tkr=AMLN) - research (http://thestreet.investor.reuters.com/reports.aspx?ticker=AMLN) - Cramer's Take (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/cramertake?tkr=AMLN&site=tsc)), the developer of two diabetes drugs, issued third-quarter results Wednesday that fell below analysts' expectations on both the top and bottom lines.

The financial report, issued after markets had closed, led to a sharp selloff in after-hours trading. Amylin's shares lost $3.99, or 10.5%, to $34. In regular trading, the stock gained 44 cents.
Amylin lost $69.5 million, or 65 cents a share, on revenue of $25.9 million for what was its first full quarter of commercial operations. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had predicted a loss of 57 cents a share on revenue of $30.7 million.


For the same period last year, Amylin lost $34.1 million, or 36 cents a share, on revenue of $13.4 million.

Amylin makes and sells Symlin, an injectable drug for helping reduce blood sugar and which is used in conjunction with insulin. Symlin was approved by the Food and Drug Administration in March, after more than four years of review during which the agency twice asked Amylin for additional clinical data.

The more important product is Byetta, which helps control blood sugar. The FDA approved the drug in late April. Amylin has enlisted Eli Lilly (LLY (http://tools.thestreet.com/rmy/quotes.html?pg=qcn&symb=LLY):NYSE - commentary (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/find/results.html?tkr=LLY) - research (http://thestreet.investor.reuters.com/reports.aspx?ticker=LLY) - Cramer's Take (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/cramertake?tkr=LLY&site=tsc)) to help it market Byetta, which must be injected twice a day. Amylin isolated the drug from the saliva of the Gila monster.

Amylin also is working with Lilly and Alkermes (ALKS (http://tools.thestreet.com/rmy/quotes.html?pg=qcn&symb=ALKS):Nasdaq - commentary (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/find/results.html?tkr=ALKS) - research (http://thestreet.investor.reuters.com/reports.aspx?ticker=ALKS) - Cramer's Take (http://find.thestreet.com/cgi-bin/texis/cramertake?tkr=ALKS&site=tsc)) to create a version of Byetta that can be injected once a week (http://www.thestreet.com/stocks/robertsteyer/10239340.html).

Although Byetta's clinical results have been favorable, some analysts have said sales might fall below more bullish Wall Street estimates because the injectable Byetta must compete against similar medications that are taken orally.

Ginger L. Graham, the president and CEO, told analysts in a telephone conference call that demand for Byetta isn't completely reflected in reported revenue because Amylin provides free samples to doctors, along with certain discounts for patients. These practices are standard to the pharmaceutical industry as companies promote new drugs to doctors and patients. Go to NEXT PAGE (http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/stocks/robertsteyer/10249709_2.html)

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Just this sort of thing has nailed me 2 or 3 times in the past year. The only thing I see to prevent losses due to unexpected earnings is a portfolio that never holds through earnings , but how realistic is that ? Any suggestions?
The worst part of this is the ineffectiveness of stops when earnings are announced after hours.
billyjoe

[skiracer]

Jiesen,
Just this sort of thing has nailed me 2 or 3 times in the past year. The only thing I see to prevent losses due to unexpected earnings is a portfolio that never holds through earnings , but how realistic is that ? Any suggestions?
The worst part of this is the ineffectiveness of stops when earnings are announced after hours.
billyjoe
Down around 4 points in the AH. You guys must have been in early on an are holding some pretty nice gains with this stock. Can't you just let it go and take what gains are left. This thing could really go off the chart in the morning.

[spikefader]

http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/5660/amlnah9sp.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img391.imageshack.us/img391/6035/amlnoct266cw.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Notice the Price making nice highs, but RSI dropping (red line) . I guess this could be a negative divergence between price and RSI.

http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/7056/amln7np.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

I just pray she doesn't fill the gap . . . .

[spikefader]

Yep, there's the divergence right there.
http://img364.imageshack.us/img364/7114/amlndiverg2zm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

More thoughts.
http://img488.imageshack.us/img488/5369/amlnweekly8xk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Well, my AMLN position is pretty long-term. And though the earnings this quarter weren't spectacular, I think that soon enough they will be. Ramping up their sales and marketing is expensive right now, but it will pay off in the end. Give them a few more quarters to connect the dots, and soon the analysts will change their minds and send AMLN to $100 and above.

The fast rise here from 20 to nearly 40 was almost enough to make me sell out just before the earnings today. I actually had my finger on the trigger, but I held off for two reasons. First, I didn't want to miss out if this was the ER that blew everyone away and sent it up another 50%. Second, this is in a taxable account, and I didn't want to have to pay the taxes on this gain yet (yeah a pretty bad reason, and I'm kicking myself for hesitating once again due to that).

By the way, did you see the margin on their product? It cost them $4M to make the drugs that they sold for $22M. With the marketing efforts already in full swing, but sales still ramping up, it's possible they can keep the fixed costs fixed, and by quadrupling their sales (easily done by next year) they could completely wipe out the loss. Like I said, give them time. Another 6-12 months and the picture will be much clearer.

from:
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051026/law094.html?.v=27
Net product sales of $21.9 million for the current quarter include sales of $18.1 million for BYETTA® (exenatide) injection, a first-in-class therapy for type 2 diabetes, and $3.8 million for SYMLIN® (pramlintide acetate) injection, a first-in-class diabetes therapy that is used with mealtime insulin. Net product sales consist of shipments of BYETTA and SYMLIN to the Company's wholesale customers, net of allowances for discounts, distribution fees and returns.

Revenue under collaborative agreements was $4 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $13.4 million for the same period in 2004. In the third quarter of 2004, the company recognized $5 million in milestone revenue from Eli Lilly and Company and had higher cost-sharing revenue due to higher BYETTA development expenses than in the current quarter.

Cost of goods sold was $4.3 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005.

Research and development expenses increased to $32.7 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, compared to $30.8 million for the same period in 2004. The increase primarily reflects increased investments in the Company's pipeline activities.

Selling, general and administrative expenses for the quarter ended September 30, 2005, were $52.1 million compared to $15 million for the same period in 2004. This increase reflects the expansion of the Company's commercial capabilities and business infrastructure to support the commercialization of BYETTA and SYMLIN in the United States. This expansion included hiring and training for our now fully staffed field organization, expanded marketing, medical education and customer service activities, and related administrative support.

Collaborative profit sharing, which represents Lilly's share of the gross margin for BYETTA, was $7.2 million in the third quarter of 2005.

Net loss was $69.5 million, or $0.65 per share, for the three months ended September 30, 2005, compared to a net loss of $34.1 million, or $0.36 per share, for the same period in 2004.

[JMS]

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? :???: Is its next move up or down.

[jiesen]

Very good question! I noticed that AMLN seems to have lost its momentum, and I've considered getting out of it here, while it's still at a good gain for me. I could wait for the drop that may come as others get bored and move on for my re-entry, or just take my profits and not look back. But I think this would be a mistake right now, since I believe that long-term AMLN will be trading much higher than where it is now. The recent numbers, while not as fantastic as I would have liked, still show plenty of strength for AMLN, and there's a lot of room for it to grow. I don't see any reason for it climbing anytime in the immediate future, though, and it may see $30 before it sees $40, but I'm certain that it'll see $40 eventually, so I will probably not be selling AMLN anytime soon.

[Websman]

AMLN has a huge gap that might possibly fill... then again, it may not. If it does, I will take advantage of a huge bargain. :)

[Lyehopper]

Jiesen,

What do you make of AMLN sitting on the 50dma for three straight days? :???: Is its next move up or down.
My call is down.

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=AMLN&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&p=m50&a=&c=

Ok, so now that it's an established double bounce off the 50 day MA, what do you tech experts predict is next for AMLN? Note that last time there was a double bounce off the 50-day MA the stock jumped $10 in a week. Will this happen again? Or will it be a $20 jump this time?

(of course I am just spouting nonsense right now, as I have technically no clue)

[spikefader]

Sheesh, that really is a wicked double top on the weekly. But it IS coming off a c long on the weekly. jiesen, even you can see the 12345abc move right?? hehe

I see 37.58 gap fill resisting strongly, and then channel resistance at 38.35ish. If I were long, there is absolutely no question I'd be selling it there and wait. In fact, I'd be tempted to buy puts or short there. NB may even say he'd sell calls. NB? Would ya??

BUT: If it breaks out over that double top, woohoo! It's going to 50 pretty quickly.

[jiesen]

Sheesh, that really is a wicked double top on the weekly. But it IS coming off a c long on the weekly. jiesen, even you can see the 12345abc move right?? hehe

I see 37.58 gap fill resisting strongly, and then channel resistance at 38.35ish. If I were long, there is absolutely no question I'd be selling it there and wait. In fact, I'd be tempted to buy puts or short there. NB may even say he'd sell calls. NB? Would ya??

BUT: If it breaks out over that double top, woohoo! It's going to 50 pretty quickly.

watch out! AMLN is sneaking up on 40!

[spikefader]

watch out! AMLN is sneaking up on 40!
Dude! I'm still hugely bullish on it. And it's got those delicious scallops bullish pattern.

http://www.coveredcallswins.com/chartpatterns/imageHDM.JPG

A qualdruple top breakout; shoot, this one is worth some calls! :-)

[JMS]

Looks like AMLN has finally made it over $40. Awesome!!!
I am slightly concerned about the GLIP antagonists in the clinic as possible competitors.
What is your opinion Jaisen?

Thanks
JMS

[jiesen]

You mean GLP-1 agonists, right? No, I'd not be worried about competition in this area, because Byetta actually IS a GLP-1 agonist, and the first to market at that. If another were to come to market, it would have to be demonstrated to be more effective than Byetta, and there really isn't anything close to that right now. These things take years (or decades sometimes) to get through all the clinical and regulatory hoops to make it on the market. AMLN is practically one of a kind in that they made it with a novel diabetes treatment (two, actually!). Competition could be considered stiff coming from SNY/PFE's Exubera, but that's still insulin, which is an inferior treatment to a GLP-1 agonist. Novartis has an interesting candidate that may compete, eventually, in a DPPIV inhibitor, which works like a GLP-1 agonist, but again that's still a ways off (2008 at the earliest) but it would still have to prove to be better than Byetta if it's going to really steal market share from them. The only thing it has going over Byetta is that it's an oral rather than injectible. But that difference is highly overrated by the investment community. By the time they make it to maket, AMLN will probably have LARS on the market, and have sold enough Byetta to buy whatever else is new in the diabetes arena. They are working on new business deals even now that will solidify their pipeline and their position as a leader in the market for years to come. Byetta is huge, but it is just the beginning for AMLN. Also, you can't buy another successful diabetes drug company like AMLN, the rest (PFE, LLY, SNY, NVS etc) all have the big pharma baggage that comes with it.

[jiesen]

I'm just throwing that out there in response to your concern about AMLN's competition- but I should qualify this by saying I'm really not an expert, and can't pretend that I really have all the facts straight here. So please, if you know more about this, feel free to correct me where I'm wrong. I'm sorry if it seems like I'm pumping AMLN, but I am excited about owning this stock, and am just rambling off my own reasons for feeling this way- not claiming that I know everything about it- my understanding of the diabetes drug market, or of AMLN for that matter, could turn out to be 100% wrong... so take this all with a grain of salt, please! thought I should add a disclaimer that I'm coming off of a slight buzz tonight, too.

more info...
how Byetta works:
http://www.byetta.com/hcp/200_incretin_mimetic.jsp?reqNavId=2
how Byetta and Symlin are selling:
http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm
note- $20M last quarter, heading for $50-60M this quarter. Should see a $1B+ year in the not too distant future.

[Lyehopper]

I got me some Jiesen @ 40.50

might be breaking out for real now.

[jiesen]

I got me some Jiesen @ 40.50

might be breaking out for real now.

Cool. We'll be riding this AMLN bull together then!

[Lyehopper]

HUUUUUUUUGE!!!!! Hehehehehehehe!

Jiesen you've got the POTW this week dude!

[jiesen]

Lye,

you're in very good company with your purchase today:

http://investors.amylin.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=101911&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2l6YXJkLmNvbS94bWwvZmlsa W5nLnhtbD9yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9Mzg1MDIzNyZkb2M9MCZ hdHRhY2g9b24= (http://investors.amylin.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=101911&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2NjYm4uMTBrd2l6YXJkLmNvbS94bWwvZmlsa W5nLnhtbD9yZXBvPXRlbmsmaXBhZ2U9Mzg1MDIzNyZkb2M9MCZ hdHRhY2g9b24=)


Joe Cook used to run the show at AMLN. A vote of confidence from him is HUGE.

[Runner]

I should have taken the entry signal 2 days ago on AMLN. Jiesen you've had this one for while if I recall.

Awesome job Your HUGE!!!

[jiesen]

I should have taken the entry signal 2 days ago on AMLN. Jiesen you've had this one for while if I recall.

Awesome job Your HUGE!!!

Thanks, Runner! Yeah, I first bought it around $21 and unfortunately sold half at $27, thinking it had spiked AH and would be coming back down the next day, for me to pick back up. Didn't happen, though. I'm not letting any more go until it's MUCH higher than this.

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060106/dcf028.html?.v=29

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
CNBC is going to have what they call a very interesting interview with AMLN's CEO today perhaps at noon est thought you might be interested.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

Hmm, yeah, I'd love to watch that, but unfortunately I'm stuck at work. Thanks for pointing that out though! Must be going on right about now, eh?

[jiesen]

comments from the Yahoo! board showing up now:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=161595

Looks like no news came out, and that she at least handled the interview well.

[JMS]

Jiesen,

I hope your still in AMLN. Its doing great even over the last two crappy days on the market. Amln looks strong!
I, unfortunately, was stopped out over the Christmas holidays. Went on vacation and set a limit order that was eventually stopped out. It immediatley reversed at the beginning of the year and is still going strong. I am still looking for an entry point back in but... with it moving up so steadily it hasn't provided an opportunity.

Anyway... enough with the negative. I was wondering about your thoughts on the CB1 antagonist remonabant(acomplia) for obesity? This is undoubtably a huge market as long as it gets to the market without any "black boxes". It has also been implicated in other indications including drug abuse, smoking cessation etc. Do you think there is a play here in Sonofi-Aventis the company that is developing this drug?

[jiesen]

Yep, still glad to be in AMLN. As for the SNY drug remonabant, as an investor I'm not going to give it too much thought, as in the grand scheme of things, even IF it turns out to be worth $1B to the company (and that's a big IF, since approval is still at least a year away, AFAIK) that would be less than a 1% boost to SNY's total market cap. So I'd say to evaluate SNY on its other merits besides the promise of that one drug, if you're into SNY. Thanks for bringing it to my attention though, as SNY is interesting to me for other reasons, which I will check out.

Scientifically, though, remonabant is interesting, and I will try to learn more about the mechanism of this drug, as well as the overall obesity market, since this could be very relevant to the future sales potential of Byetta and Symlin.

[BobS]

In its subject "white paper" re "New Advances in the Treatment of Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes", the physicians at Johns Hopkins state "Both Byetta and Symlin are promising new drugs for diabetes sufferers. And both effectively signal the pancreas to secrete insulin, while they slow the passage of food from the stomach to the intestines to suppress appetite. Are you a good candidate? Find out."

The above was listed before any other innovations re Diabetes Control that were identified in the subject "white paper".

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
Hey man, how about posting your opinion on today's AMLN action. You know, down $1.42 or so. I daytraded the dog for some lunch money, but what are you thinking for long term?

[jiesen]

Hmm, well I'm not too concerned or even that interested right now in whether AMLN is up or down a few % over the course of a day. I see it going up over the long run- at least to 60 or 80 in the next couple of years, and probably into the $200 eventually. I'd like to just be able to hold onto the stock until then. So far, nothing has given me any reason to change my opinion, and everything is still pointing in the right direction, as far as I'm concerned. That being said, I think there could be a couple explanations for the drop- one would be the options expiration yesterday, since many who exercised their calls would probably want to sell today. Another would be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" type of reaction to today's scrip numbers, which were pretty good, actually.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=163312

compare to recent "disappointing" weeks, where the stock has gone up:

http://www.members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm (http://www.members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm)

The stock will not always move in the direction you'd expect from the daily news. In fact- it will often move exactly in the opposite direction you'd have thought. Another reason to ignore the short-term noise, and look more at the bigger picture. That's why I'm picking it every week for the POTW- I don't expect a 10% move each week, but an average small gain each week is what I'm actually aiming for now. Fits my actual trading mode as well. AMLN is a long-term buy and hold for me, at least for the next year or so. When I see the growth in scrips actually taper off to less than 5%/month is when I *may* reconsider my position.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen<
I've got the chart targeting $61 right now. Looks pretty good, actually. I may buy into this thing again tomorrow and look to hold it for a month. I sold my shares right at $38 (I had $40 calls sold on it at the time and they expired worthless). But now I think I should have held onto her a little longer.

Thanks for your FA viewpoint!

[jiesen]

NBB, your $61 target isn't too far off of what S&P just picked as their target. Personally, I think both will be surpassed within a year- but we'll see...

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/investor/content/jan2006/pi20060126_6463_pi010.htm

Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN (javascript: void showTicker('AMLN','pi')) ) : Ups to 4 STARS (buy) from 3 STARS (hold)
Analyst: Frank DiLorenzo, CFA


Net fourth quarter sales of Byetta were $49 million, $13 million above our forecast. We are raising our 2006 Byetta sales projection to $314 million, from $292 million. Also, partner Lilly (LLY (javascript: void showTicker('LLY','pi')) ) announces EU filing on Byetta ahead of schedule. With strengthening Byetta market position and exenatide LAR in Amylin's pipeline, we are less concerned about future competition. We are boosting our 12-month target price to $57 from $40.

[jiesen]

If you've felt like the AMLN train has been passing you by, now's your chance to jump on it. Trading at $39 right now.

[jiesen]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

[Lyehopper]

of course this drop is killing my POTW avg...

I still like it Jiesen. I'm holding my shares.... expect a little further selloff?... maybe.

http://img511.imageshack.us/img511/2793/amln2260pj.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Why? Drop it and pick it up again. This ain't the bottom. . . .
You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

[DSteckler]

AMLN stopped right on the 38.2% retracement of the advance since the 8/23 gap.

[New-born baby]

You might be right.... Where's the bottom NB-Baby?

I'd say a couple of things to ya, LYE-BABY:
1. If you are correct with the Golden Rule retracement of 61.8% at $37.60, you are losing $2 to get there (not my style). I always figured I'd keep the $2 and pick it up again later. Besides, my forecasted bottom may not be the real bottom. It might drop further.
2. I don't know where you entered the stock, but if I wanted this one so bad my play would be sell the calls for FEB $40 for the $1.30. [If fact, I owned AMLN and had sold those $40 calls for $5 (bought them last Friday when AMLN was $43. Sold them yesterday; should have sold them today! Or not at all :( ]. Doubt she'll pullback up by the 17th. Yes, we are just $39 now, but I am looking for a 100% retracement to $32.60.
3. I could be too pessimistic here. You should take into account that I am a conservative type investor.
4. Ask Spike to confirm this, but the last four days make an "A" downturn. We still need a "B" corrective, and a "C" that falls further South than "A" before we are ready to enter the stock again. No, I'd leave this one.

Look at this chart and you can see why I say what I say:
http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6554/chart11yl.gif

[New-born baby]

Lye,
Something I've been meaning to ask you . . . .
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2221/chart12sj.gif

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
Something I've been meaning to ask you . . . .
http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/2221/chart12sj.gif
Hey NB-Baby.... With a herd of good black cattle it's hard to see that.lol

[Lyehopper]

I'd say a couple of things to ya, LYE-BABY:
1. If you are correct with the Golden Rule retracement of 61.8% at $37.60, you are losing $2 to get there (not my style). I always figured I'd keep the $2 and pick it up again later. Besides, my forecasted bottom may not be the real bottom. It might drop further.
2. I don't know where you entered the stock, but if I wanted this one so bad my play would be sell the calls for FEB $40 for the $1.30. [If fact, I owned AMLN and had sold those $40 calls for $5 (bought them last Friday when AMLN was $43. Sold them yesterday; should have sold them today! Or not at all :( ]. Doubt she'll pullback up by the 17th. Yes, we are just $39 now, but I am looking for a 100% retracement to $32.60.
3. I could be too pessimistic here. You should take into account that I am a conservative type investor.
4. Ask Spike to confirm this, but the last four days make an "A" downturn. We still need a "B" corrective, and a "C" that falls further South than "A" before we are ready to enter the stock again. No, I'd leave this one.

Look at this chart and you can see why I say what I say:
http://img426.imageshack.us/img426/6554/chart11yl.gif
I hear ya dude, I like the way you think.... Another angle is.... What two points do you choose to pull the retracement from? Could actually be worse than my chart shows if other fib points were chosen.

If AMLN retraces with a chart like it has.... then I guess we could expect every single pick on the "top five grounghog dump" to follow suit. Wonder if $$MM$$ will consider the charts this time or pull another "FRGB"?

[New-born baby]

Wonder if $$MM$$ will consider the charts this time or pull another "FRGB"?

FRGB isn't the bad one: BEL. This one almost went to zero before regaining its equalibrium at $2. :D

[New-born baby]

Another angle is.... What two points do you choose to pull the retracement from? Could actually be worse than my chart shows if other fib points were chosen.


I think the FIBs should be drawn this way:
http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/5619/chart18xy.gif

Any way you cut it: it hasn't bottomed. Get out of the way of that falling piano! Buy the FEB $40 puts. Or the FEB $35 puts.

[New-born baby]

FRGB isn't the bad one: BEL. This one almost went to zero before regaining its equalibrium at $2.. :D And Spike is pulling $$ out of it now. Could have pulled $$ on the short side.

[New-born baby]

AMLN stopped right on the 38.2% retracement of the advance since the 8/23 gap.

Dave,
Saw your post and went back to the chart. I see how you drew the FIB
from the Top of the Gap up. I haven't done it that way before . . . maybe I don't know what I am doing.

What is your opinion? Is AMLN done bottoming out? Are you looking for further downside (like I am)? Would you be a buyer at these levels and at this time?

[DSteckler]

<< What is your opinion? Is AMLN done bottoming out? >>

Not to be glib but we won't know until it starts moving up again on rising (or at least average) volume. Even a pullback to the 50% retracement level, if it holds, is considered bullish.

[spikefader]

Heya guys.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad AMLN news, but the pattern called for today's drop, and it ain't over yet perhaps....
posts relating:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39640&postcount=6494
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39872&postcount=6547
http://img336.imageshack.us/img336/7553/amlnfeb20qk.jpg

[DSteckler]

Textbook broadening top formation.

[New-born baby]

Heya guys.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad AMLN news, but the pattern called for today's drop, and it ain't over yet perhaps....
posts relating:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39640&postcount=6494
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=39872&postcount=6547
http://img336.imageshack.us/img336/7553/amlnfeb20qk.jpg

Spike's target hit. And it ain't done yet.

[BobS]

This article, prominently featured in the March 2nd New York Times, is one of the most prominent, definitive, and encouraging pieces that I've seen on Byetta to date. Also, my Endocrinologist feels that it may be time for me to begin taking it, further boosting sales.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/02/business/02drug.html

[jiesen]

The scrips for Symlin and Byetta both are increasing at a stellar rate now. 2006 drug revenues could very well pass $500M, doubling the analyst estimates.

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=172318

AMLN had prescriptions reported by IMS America
this morning for recently approved diabetes drugs
Symlin and Byetta. Total prescriptions for Byetta
in its fortieth full week ended March 3 were
30,657, of which 17,599 were new prescriptions
up from 26,387 total and 15,738 new Rxs
respectively in the prior week. With 1-month
starter packs being provided to key prescribers,
we believe that these numbers underestimate true
patient starts.
Summary
Total prescriptions for Symlin for the week ended
March 3 were 2,694 with new Rxs of 1,274, up
from 2,405 total and 1,142 new Rxs in the prior
week. Overall, more than 38,000 new
prescriptions have been written for Symlin in its
first nine months of launch.

[NY4Ever]

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Biopharmaceutical company Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday it plans to sell up to 9.8 million shares via a public offering.

The company filed with regulators to sell 8.5 million shares and has granted the underwriters the option to buy an additional 1.3 million shares.

[New-born baby]

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Biopharmaceutical company Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Monday it plans to sell up to 9.8 million shares via a public offering.

The company filed with regulators to sell 8.5 million shares and has granted the underwriters the option to buy an additional 1.3 million shares.
Time to buy puts.

[jiesen]

I dunno about that NBB. I just spoke to a friend of mine at AMLN (bumped into him at lunch) and he seemed pretty upbeat about his company adding $450M or so to its cash pile. I think they'll be doing some pretty amazing things with that money (as well as the other half-billion in revenues they could rake in this year).

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

I'm aware that my shares in AMLN have increased in price more than double from where I've entered, so it may be time to take another look to see if maybe it's become overvalued, right? Well, who am I kidding, I'm never selling this stock! I'm in love! (ok, ok hopefully I'm not) But anyway, someone is telling me that earnings and revenues are declining at AMLN, the future looks bleak, and that gross margins are dismal. Well, I'd like to address each point, but will start with the easiest one first. Obviously, I'm biased from a long perspective, so I'll take the job of presenting the bull case for AMLN, and I welcome anyone to provide the data that supports the bear case.

First, look at the chart from the previous post, showing the scrip numbers. Drug revenue estimates based on prescriptions are as follows:
2Q05: 1M
3Q05: 22M
4Q05: 56M
1Q06: 93M
2Q06: 120M+ (even if there's no prescription growth through the rest of the quarter)

These look like growing revenues to me, what about you? Is there anyone that believes AMLN will post lower drug revenues for 2006 than they did in 2005?

Next up will be gross margins... stay tuned!

[Lyehopper]

AMLN is looking pretty good here to me. Plus I like the group right now too. Should be a good one to trade long here. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Someone post some TA and an opinion.... As for me, I think the chart looks fantastic.

[peanuts]

AMLN is looking pretty good here to me. Plus I like the group right now too. Should be a good one to trade long here. http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Someone post some TA and an opinion.... As for me, I think the chart looks fantastic.

Looks good to me also, Lye. Nice pick.

http://img113.imageshack.us/img113/7405/amlnchartpq1.png

Looks like everything is pointing up. I might take a little nibble tommorrow if it follows through


glad you covered your short on steel
the future market for it is a big deal

[jiesen]

Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Announces Conversion of All Outstanding 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2008
Thursday August 24, 4:05 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060824/lath061a.html?.v=1

SAN DIEGO, Aug. 24 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amln&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=amln)) today announced that in connection with the previously announced redemption of its 2.25% convertible senior notes due June 30, 2008, issued in 2003, holders of all of the outstanding notes converted their notes into shares of Amylin's common stock prior to the August 24, 2006 redemption date. The aggregate outstanding principal amount of the notes was $175 million. As a result of these conversions, 5,377,148 shares of common stock were issued to the note holders. The note holders were also entitled to a make-whole payment equal to $112.94 per $1,000 principal value of the converted notes less interest actually paid. Amylin elected to pay the make-whole payment for the converted notes in shares of Amylin's common stock, amounting to an additional approximately 180,000 shares issued. In connection with the conversions, Amylin paid approximately $550 in cash, representing cash paid in lieu of fractional shares.

and from the company's latest quarterly report:
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0001104659-06-052015&Type=HTML

7. Convertible Senior Notes
In June and July 2003, the Company issued the 2003 Notes in a private placement, which have an aggregate principal amount of $175 million and are due June 30, 2008. The 2003 Notes have been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, to permit registered resale of the 2003 Notes and of the common stock issuable upon conversion of the 2003 Notes. The 2003 Notes bear interest at a rate of 2.25% per year, payable in cash semi-annually, and are convertible into a total of up to 5.4 million shares of common stock at a conversion price of approximately $32.55 per share, subject to customary adjustments such as stock dividends and other dilutive transactions.

The 2003 Notes are redeemable at the Company’s option in whole or in part at a redemption price equal to 100% of the principal amount of the notes to be redeemed plus accrued and unpaid interest to the redemption date if the closing price of the Company’s common stock has exceeded $45.57 for at least 20 trading days in any consecutive 30-day trading period. At the time of any such redemption, the Company will also make an additional payment on the redeemed 2003 Notes, referred to as a make-whole payment, equal to $112.94 per $1,000 principal amount of the 2003 Notes, less interest actually paid or accrued but unpaid on the 2003 Notes. The Company may elect to make this payment in cash or shares of its common stock. On July 24, 2006, the Company announced that it is calling for the redemption of all its outstanding 2003 Notes (Note 9).

In April 2004, the Company issued the 2004 Notes, which have an aggregate principal amount of $200 million, and are due April 15, 2011, in a private placement. The 2004 Notes have been registered under the Securities Act to permit registered resale of the 2004 Notes and of the common stock issuable upon conversion of the 2004 Notes. The 2004 Notes bear interest at 2.5% per year, payable in cash semi-annually and are convertible into a total of up to 5.8 million shares of common stock at a conversion price of $34.35 per share, subject to customary adjustments for stock dividends and other dilutive transactions. The Company may not redeem the 2004 Notes prior to maturity.

Upon a change in control, the holders of the 2003 and 2004 Notes may elect to require the Company to re-purchase the 2003 or 2004 Notes. The Company may elect to pay the purchase price in common stock instead of cash, or a combination thereof. If paid with common stock the number of shares of common stock a holder will receive will be valued at 95% of the closing prices of our common stock for the five-day trading period ending on the third day before the purchase date.

What this means is that AMLN's long-term debt is now essentially retired. Half of it was redeemed by the company (about $200M worth) in stock yesterday, and the other half is essentially now a call on the stock at $34 good until 2011.

Yes, there is dilution with this, but getting the debt off of the balance sheet is a very good thing. AMLN is flush with cash now, and the $45 stock price gives them license to print as much cash as they need for the short term, until profit can get to where they need to be to fully support their pipeline. And get there it will. My revenue projection of $500M this year is still very much attainable:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

(why yes, I am having trouble sleeping tonight...)

[jiesen]

I did say I'd get to this eventually, and so here's a little fun with the latest income figures.

From the 6 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 185M ($30.8M/month)
Cost=24M
Gross Margin=87%
Counting the 147M SG&A cost that's a 21% margin.

From the 3 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 109M ($36.3M/month)
Cost=15M
Gross Margin=86%
Counting the 63M SG&A cost that's a 28% margin.

Already you can see the trend here, that with the increase in revenues/month, the margins increase. Gross margin will increase slightly (after that hiccup with the cartridge shorage of course) with economy of scale, and it doesn't get much better than a 90% margin!

But the margin after SG&A is more interesting, as it's heading to 30% and above. When AMLN is pulling in 30% of $1B of revenue, that's $300M to (fully!) fund R&D, which comes right back to the company in the expanding pipeline of new and better stuff.

With 2 products of enormous potential on the market already, more to come, and practically 0 debt, sky's the limit for this baby.

[New-born baby]

I did say I'd get to this eventually, and so here's a little fun with the latest income figures.

From the 6 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 185M ($30.8M/month)
Cost=24M
Gross Margin=87%
Counting the 147M SG&A cost that's a 21% margin.

From the 3 months ended June 30 2006 income we have:
Rev= 109M ($36.3M/month)
Cost=15M
Gross Margin=86%
Counting the 63M SG&A cost that's a 28% margin.

Already you can see the trend here, that with the increase in revenues/month, the margins increase. Gross margin will increase slightly (after that hiccup with the cartridge shorage of course) with economy of scale, and it doesn't get much better than a 90% margin!

But the margin after SG&A is more interesting, as it's heading to 30% and above. When AMLN is pulling in 30% of $1B of revenue, that's $300M to (fully!) fund R&D, which comes right back to the company in the expanding pipeline of new and better stuff.

With 2 products of enormous potential on the market already, more to come, and practically 0 debt, sky's the limit for this baby.


So give us a price target, Mr. Genius :D
BTW, I own AMLN, so make a reasonable estimate, will ya? :D

[jiesen]

So give us a price target, Mr. Genius :D
BTW, I own AMLN, so make a reasonable estimate, will ya? :D

Well, if AMLN jumped to $75 next week, I'd probably sell mine. But I think it's likely to track the weekly scrip numbers for Byetta pretty closely for the short term (meaning months instead of years)- that is, a 45k Byetta number = $45 stock price (+/- 10% or so). And I believe we should hit 50-55k in the next month or two. Within a year 100k/week will be written for Byetta, and -you guessed it- AMLN should trade at $100/shr. I only expect to see a falling price (long run) if the scrips stabilize below 80k, because that would probably not leave AMLN with enough money to complete all of its development plans without some significant equity financing. But I think 100k should be easily doable if not by next year, then 2008.

So, while my goal here is to hold AMLN pretty much forever, if you must pick a target, you could try making it a multiple (maybe 1.4x or 1.6x) the weekly scrip# and sell at that point, to buy back when it pulls back to 1x again (or below for further margin of safety). That's just a suggestion, and for short term trading on AMLN, I would defer to you and your charts- you have demonstrated your ability to make those calls. When I try to time my entries and exits (like my POTW blunder out of AMLN these past few weeks) I end up burned more often than not. Also, I sold half when it spiked to $27 in after hours way back thinking I could get it back on a pullback that never came. I'm not risking that happening again, not with AMLN.

Thinking about an exit strategy here, I could see $200-250 being a reasonable target for 10 years out or so. But I'll have to take a look at more sales data as it comes out for a while first, and also see how Byetta LAR plays out.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
I am selling out of the money calls, and as the stock moves South, I cover those calls. Then as the stock moves up, I again sell the calls. Example: AMLN was about $46.50 the other day, and I sold the JAN $45 for $7.20. AMLN pulled back for three days, and those calls dropped down to $5.90. Covered them and I am looking to resell those calls again, though this time I am looking at the $50 strike. IF AMLN climbs to $50 and never looks back, I will still be happy with my profits. But AMLN moves around alot, and I like that, because the options are pretty hefty. :D

Thanks for recommending this stock back when it was $21. :D

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I am selling out of the money calls, and as the stock moves South, I cover those calls. Then as the stock moves up, I again sell the calls. Example: AMLN was about $46.50 the other day, and I sold the JAN $45 for $7.20. AMLN pulled back for three days, and those calls dropped down to $5.90. Covered them and I am looking to resell those calls again, though this time I am looking at the $50 strike. IF AMLN climbs to $50 and never looks back, I will still be happy with my profits. But AMLN moves around alot, and I like that, because the options are pretty hefty. :D

Thanks for recommending this stock back when it was $21. :D

NBB,
I'm glad you like the stock, and hope you make a ton of $$ on the options! You're right, AMLN is pretty volatile, which can make for some juicy profits there.

[jiesen]

from a post at IV:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=4627&pt=msg&mid=343887

In yet another ongoing clinical trial, Amylin is testing exenatide as a treatment for Polycystic ovary syndrome...a condition that evidently affects 5-10% of all women of reproductive age. What follows is a brief explanation of the condition of PCOS as background, followed by the Phase 2 Clinical trial sponsored by Amylin in conjunction with the Lousiana Research Foundation, which began recruiting in June, 2006.

Assuming succesful results of this trial, Byetta label expansion for treatment of PCOS would expand potential users into a population of up to 5-10% of all women...who otherwise would be under threat of reproductive problems, long term diabetes and heart disease.
*******

Introduction
Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a condition most often characterized by irregular menstrual periods, excess hair growth and obesity, but it can affect women in a variety of ways. Irregular or heavy periods may signal the condition in adolescence, or polycystic ovary syndrome may become apparent later when a woman has difficulty becoming pregnant.

The signs and symptoms of polycystic ovary syndrome stem from a disruption in the reproductive cycle, which normally culminates each month with the release of an egg from an ovary (ovulation). The name polycystic ovary syndrome comes from the appearance of the ovaries in some women with the disorder — large and studded with numerous cysts (polycystic). These cysts are follicles, fluid-filled sacs that contain immature eggs.

Polycystic ovary syndrome is the most common hormonal disorder among women of reproductive age in the United States, affecting an estimated 5 percent to 10 percent. Early diagnosis and treatment of polycystic ovary syndrome can help reduce the risk of long-term complications, which include diabetes and heart disease.
************************************************** ******************
Exenatide and Metformin Therapy in Overweight Women With PCOS

This study is currently recruiting patients.
Verified by Metabolic Center of Louisiana Research Foundation June 2006

Sponsors and Collaborators: Metabolic Center of Louisiana Research Foundation
Amylin Pharmaceuticals
Information provided by: Metabolic Center of Louisiana Research Foundation
ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00344851


Purpose

Current research has shown that the use of diabetes management practices aimed at reducing insulin resistance and hyperinsulinemia (such as weight reduction and the administration of oral antidiabetic drugs) in women with PCOS can not only improve glucose and lipid metabolism but can also reverse testosterone abnormalities and restore menstrual cycles. A new medicine called exenatide (Byetta) has been found to reduce body weight, as well as, improve abnormal glucose metabolism in diabetics. This randomized study will compare Exenatide (Byetta) to extended release metformin (Fortamet) to combination therapy (both Byetta and Fortamet) on menstrual cyclicity, hormone profiles and metabolic profiles over a 24-week period in women with PCOS.
Condition Intervention Phase
Polycystic Ovary Syndrome
Drug: metformin, exenatide or combined (metformin & exenatide )
Phase II


MedlinePlus related topics: Ovarian Cysts


Study Type: Interventional
Study Design: Treatment, Randomized, Open Label, Active Control, Parallel Assignment, Safety/Efficacy Study

Official Title: Comparison of the Effects of Monotherapy With Exenatide or Metformin to Combined Exenatide and Metformin Therapy on Menstrual Cyclicity in Overweight Women With Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

Further study details as provided by Metabolic Center of Louisiana Research Foundation:
Primary Outcomes: - Menstrual Cyclicity ( # menses/ 24 weeks)
Secondary Outcomes: BMI, WHR, FAI (T/SHBG), DHEAS, lipids,abdominal girth,; insulin resistance-(HOMA and composite insulin sensitivity index [ SIOGTT),; and pancreatic ß-cell function (corrected insulin response [CIRgp] and; insulinogenic index [IGI] ).
Expected Total Enrollment: 60
Study start: June 2006


Objectives: The objective of the present proposal is to compare the clinical, endocrine and metabolic effects of therapy with exenatide and metformin alone, to combination therapy in women with PCOS. This study will serve as a pilot investigation to open perspectives for future investigations combining insulin-sensitizing drugs with different mechanisms of action in patients with PCOS, especially ones for whom standard treatment with metformin is less effective.

Subjects : 60 oligomenorrheic overweight/obese (BMI >27) women meeting criteria for PCOS (age 18-40)· six or fewer menses /year or amenorrheic· clinical or laboratory evidence of hyperandrogenism (hirsutism or elevated testosterone (T))· PCOS ovary on ultrasound(need to meet criteria 1 and either 2 or 3 [or both]) Inclusion/Exclusion Criteria: Major EXCLUSION CRITERIA – FEMALE1) other uncorrected endocrinopathy- hyperprolactinemia, hyper- or hypothyroidism, congenital adrenal hyperplasia2) presence of overt diabetes or impaired glucose tolerance3) alterations in hepatic or renal function4) use of hormonal medications, insulin sensitizers or medications that interfere with carbohydrate metabolism for at least 8 weeks5) Any medical condition which, in the judgment of the investigator may interfere with the absorption, distribution, metabolism or excretion of the drug6) Simultaneous participation in another clinical trial7) Known active substance abuse including tobacco and alcohol. (> 10 cigarettes/day)8) Refusal or inability to comply with protocol9) patient desiring pregnancy, pregnant, or breastfeeding Study Design: Balanced randomized parallel group clinical study with 3 treatment arms: metformin (1000 mg BID); exenatide (10 mcg BID) or combined (metformin 1000 mg BID; exenatide 10 mcg BID) therapy for 24 weeks.

Efficacy Measures: Primary- Menstrual Cyclicity ( # menses/ 24 weeks)Secondary-BMI, WHR, FAI (T/SHBG), DHEAS, lipids, insulin resistance-(HOMA and composite insulin sensitivity index [ SIOGTT), and pancreatic ß-cell function (corrected insulin response [CIRgp] and insulinogenic index [IGI] ).

Safety: For safety, all subjects who enter the study are evaluable. Subjects will be monitored for safety by assessment of adverse events, physical exams, vital signs and laboratory values.

Statistical methods/analysis: The measurement of menstrual frequency involves nominal data ( patients with/without regular cycles pre vs post-treatment and will be analyzed using the McNemar test (complex chi square for paired data). For all other analyses, in which the data are interval, parameters, such as androgens, lipids, insulin sensitivity, etc. will be evaluated using a SS/Treatment x Trials (pre/post) analyses of variance (ANOVA). This repeated measures design will allow us to determine if each of the treatment drugs had an effect and if they are significantly different from each other while controlling for individual patient differences Study Drug Regimens: Exenatide5 ug bid - 4 weeks10 ug bid - 20 weeks (end of study)Metformin500 mg qd 2 weeks500 mg bid 2 weeks 500 mg am, 1000 mg pm- 2 weeks1000 mg bid –18 weeks (end study) Exenatide plus MetforminExenatide- 5 ug bid-4 weeksMetformin 500 qd for 2 weeks, 500 mg bid 2 weeksExenatide- 10 ug –20 weeks (to end of study)Metformin-500 mg am, 1000 mg pm- 2 weeks – 1000 bid for 18 weeks (end of study)** Metformin may be adjusted at the discretion of the physician to a level that is tolerable in patients who cannot tolerate the full dose of metformin in combination with exenatide (combination therapy only )
*******************
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct/show/NCT00344851?order=14

Java

[jiesen]

Prescriptions for Byetta rose this week to 48692 from 43948 last week. We are finally seeing the end of the supply bottleneck. Now is the time to load up on AMLN, as the stock price must catch up to the rising revenues again!

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=5668&pt=msg&mid=416729

[peanuts]

Prescriptions for Byetta rose this week to 48692 from 43948 last week. We are finally seeing the end of the supply bottleneck. Now is the time to load up on AMLN, as the stock price must catch up to the rising revenues again!

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=5668&pt=msg&mid=416729

Jiesen,

Why does AMLN lose money? They have a negative EPS according to Stockcharts. Will these increased revenues make the company profitable?

Thanks. I'm looking for new LT investments. As I have to rebalance my portfolio, now.

[jiesen]

AMLN has lost money up until now because they've never had a product until about a year ago (now they have 2 on the market and more to come). The products which they do have, haven't attained sufficient market share to make the company profitable as a whole, but they will. It will likely take another year or two for that, but I have no doubt that Byetta will be making a billion a year or more by 2008. Right now, it's running about $500M/year but like I just posted, there was a 10% increase just in the last week in prescriptions and therefore revenues. And with an 86% gross profit margin

see my previous post: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?t=899&page=21

you can bet that increased revenues will increase the profitability of AMLN.

[peanuts]

you can bet that increased revenues will increase the profitability of AMLN.

It will reduce losses. I feel a little iffy on this, dude... It would be one thing if they were already profitable and then started to make even more money, but if they are just reducing their losses, then the net result is basically the same- the company is still in the red. To me, that means the share price should erode with the losses on the books. I understand that the margins seem good now, but what about when sales take off? Will the selling costs as a percentage of sale increase at a faster rate than sales? On the surface, it sounds like this will be the case, since the products are relatively new...

Keep me updated, please. I hope you do really well with it and get another one of those HUUUUUGE 120% trades!!!

[jiesen]

http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/26/fda-drug-approvals-stocks-biz_cx_pk_0927fda.html?partner=yahootix

Stock Tips From The FDA
Matthew Herper and Peter Kang 09.27.06, 6:00 AM ET

The colon cancer drug Vectibix is one of the most promising medicines being developed by Amgen, the world's largest biotech firm. The antibody, infused into patients veins', is similar to ImClone's Erbitux but causes fewer allergic reactions. Annual sales could top $800 million three years from now--if the U.S. Food and Drug Administration decides to approve it.

Investors don't know what the FDA will decide, but they know when the decision will come: by Thursday. Why? A 1992 law sets deadlines for such decisions, by which the FDA must approve, delay or reject outright a new drug. And according to recent research from the investment bank Sanford C. Bernstein, those dates should help determine when investors buy drug and biotech stocks--and when they decide to sell them short.
In Pictures: Upcoming Regulatory Decisions (http://javascript<b></b>:popit('http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/26/biz-bizhealth_cx_pk_mh_0927drugslide.html?thisSpeed=20 000',800,600);)

The 1992 law, the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA), was a bargain made by industry to speed up drug approval times. Drug companies agreed to pay fees when they submitted new medicines for review, and are now paying the FDA $250 million a year. In return, the agency would make its decisions on strict time lines: drugs that were determined to be of vital medical need would face a six-month review; other decisions are given ten months.

Companies generally issue press releases when a drug is accepted for regulatory review, and when they don't, investors clamor for them. The result: Drug firms, their rivals and their stockholders mark their calendars with the expected PDUFA date for a new drug. Shorts and longs alike converge on biotechs as the date approaches, knowing the stock could get a bump from regulatory action or drop precipitously when the FDA tells a biotech to do more homework.

But is playing PDUFA dates smart? Maybe not, if you're a bull or a long-term investor. Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein have looked at how shareholders in big pharmaceutical and more volatile biotech stocks have done over the past couple of years when they bet ahead of regulatory decisions. "It hasn't paid to be early," writes Richard Evans, Bernstein's U.S. pharmaceuticals analyst.

Evans found 56 positive and 46 negative decisions. In all, the negative FDA decisions hurt the share price more than the positive decisions helped it. Moreover, the FDA decisions tended to influence the share price long after they were made. Getting past the FDA often led companies to months of outperformance.

The lesson: Use FDA decisions as a way to scout out new investments, not as an event to trade on. Even after a stock has popped from the approval of a new drug, there is still room for the stock to run. Amylin Pharmaceuticals (nasdaq: AMLN (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=AMLN) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=AMLN)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=AMLN)) and marketing partner Eli Lilly (nyse: LLY (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=LLY) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=LLY)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=LLY)) got their diabetes drug, Byetta, past the FDA on April 29, 2005. Shares actually fell the next day, but then broke out in late August on strong Byetta sales and good data for a still unapproved, long-acting form of the drug.

In fact, there might be an upside in shorting ahead of a regulatory decision, when bad news is most likely to arrive. This is particularly true, Evans said in an e-mail, if the FDA is rejecting or delaying a lot of drugs, because negative events tend to hurt more than positive ones help share prices. "Most times you would lose a little money, but sometimes you would gain a lot," says Geoffrey Porges, a biotech analyst at Bernstein who didn't work on the current report but has drawn similar conclusions in the past.

Two years ago, Porges also found that betting on drug stocks ahead of PDUFA dates was risky, but doing so ahead of expected data announcements was somewhat less so. This was especially true of big biotechs like Amgen (nasdaq: AMGN (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=AMGN) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=AMGN)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=AMGN)) or Genentech (nyse: DNA (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=DNA) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=DNA)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=DNA)), where earlier clinical trials usually allowed investors to predict how later ones would turn out.

As for the PDUFA strategy, investors will have plenty of chances to put it in place--both by shorting weaker biotechs and betting on the good ones after approval. On Friday, a decision is expected on a lucrative new indication for the cancer drug Rituxan, from Genentech. Decisions on two diabetes drugs from Merck (nyse: MRK (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=MRK) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=MRK)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=MRK)) and Novartis (nyse: NVS (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=NVS) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=NVS)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=NVS)) are expected next month. All told, we count at least 11 expected decisions through the beginning of next year.

[jiesen]

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

where does it look like these scrip numbers for Byetta are heading? right now a 50k week means a $50 stock. but next year, when AMLN does 80k/week Byetta scrips, where will the stock trade?

take a look at the scrips chart- second tab. AMLN is going there... and then some.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
What is your take on DNA's avastin? Is it as potentially huge as the statin drugs? Are they really marketing it under different names and strengths and using to treat a variety of ailments , charging wide ranges of prices for the same product ?

----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
What is your take on DNA's avastin? Is it as potentially huge as the statin drugs? Are they really marketing it under different names and strengths and using to treat a variety of ailments , charging wide ranges of prices for the same product ?

----------billyjoe

Billyjoe,

I really dont know much about avastin's situation, but I will try to find out about it. marketing under different names does seem to be par for the course these days in the drug market.

I know that DNA is premier biotech company, one of just a few making decent money right now. I would be interested in this one if I werent already so heavily into biotech already. If AMLN hit 80 tomorrow, I might sell it and take a closer look at DNA though.

if you want a good safe biotech position, best bet would be to split your money in DNA and AMGN, then forget about it, imo. you have a good point in the avastin question, though, since it is a significant chunk of DNA, you would definitely want to be sure that it'll do well over the next few years before committing to DNA.

[jiesen]

Well, the revenues were about where I expected, at $147M (up about 500%), but they did a much better job on the EPS than I thought, trimming it to just 0.36 from 0.65 this time last year. With sales continuing to increase and a 90% gross margin, they could turn this loss around to a profit as early as next year, imo.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061018/earns_amylin.html?.v=1

Amylin 3Q Loss Narrows on Byetta Sales
Wednesday October 18, 5:30 pm ET Amylin Pharmaceuticals Cuts Its Third-Quarter Loss and Beats Expectations As Byetta Sales Grow

SAN DIEGO (AP) -- Drug developer Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. said Wednesday its third-quarter loss narrowed 34 percent, as sales jumped fivefold, soundly beating Wall Street expectations. The company reported a net loss of $46.1 million, or 36 cents per share, compared with a loss of $69.5 million, or 65 cents per share, a year ago. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, expected a loss of 46 cents per share.

Revenue jumped to $147 million from $25.9 million. That also topped Wall Street estimates, as analysts expected revenue of $136.6 million.

The jump came from sales of the diabetes drugs Byetta and Symlin. Byetta sales made up the bulk of revenue, totaling $126.4 million. Analysts were worried about whether the drug could recover from a moratorium on new prescriptions, imposed after demand far outpaced supply of the cartridges that hold the injectible drug. That moratorium was lifted during the quarter as the company added a second supplier to keep up with demand.

Amylin and drug developer Eli Lilly & Co. are partners on Byetta.
Symlin sales made up $12.4 million of Amylin's revenue. Collaborative agreement payments brought in another $8.2 million, which double the previous year.
Shares of Amylin rose 41 cents to close at $47.45 on the Nasdaq during regular trading. They continued to rise after hours, gaining 79 cents to reach $48.24 on the INET electronic exchange.

[peanuts]

Well, the revenues were about where I expected, at $147M (up about 500%), but they did a much better job on the EPS than I thought, trimming it to just 0.36 from 0.65 this time last year. With sales continuing to increase and a 90% gross margin, they could turn this loss around to a profit as early as next year, imo.

I see that some analysts were expecting a loss of .46. AMLN really thumped those estimates. This may bode well for the stock price...

good luck :)

[New-born baby]

I see that some analysts were expecting a loss of .46. AMLN really thumped those estimates. This may bode well for the stock price...

good luck :)

Yeah, it could jump today. Still tradin' at more than 10X sales. :D

[jiesen]

Yeah, it could jump today. Still tradin' at more than 10X sales. :D

yes, but the current 500% sales growth does count for something :D

[New-born baby]

yes, but the current 500% sales growth does count for something :D

Yes, indeed it does! :D

[jiesen]

51,488 B Sym up 9% -
Lewes

from:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&pt=msg&mid=814862

[jiesen]

from:
http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=12695&pt=msg&mid=918670

Diatribe: interview excerpts on Symlin (WOW) Some powerful points from a Diatribe interview with Davida Kruger. A few of [Paul's] comments in italics.
First, on the changing dynamic of health advice:

diaTribe: Where do most patients learn about diabetes?

Kruger: Ninety-nine percent of the information patients get is from each other. They’re out there
blogging every day. That’s where they’re getting most of their information. They’re also very savvy
about good Web sites, and I send them to good ones all the time.

(I've read of this before, and done it myself. People are doing their own medical research and diagnosis on the Web, then taking their findings in to their doctor. Ppl are shopping doctors more than ever before as well, and docs have to keep up. Ppl are becoming more knowledgeable and proactive toward their healthcare. That's why the Byetta blogs are so important. And that's why DTC advertising is also central; ppl are listening. -p.)


diaTribe: What else are you hearing from patients who are using some of these new drugs and
devices?

Kruger: On Symlin, it’s the first time in their life they’ve ever been able to follow a meal plan because
they’re not hungry. (Editor’s note: Test Drive in diaTribe #2 will focus on Symlin.) So now we
have to go back and provide an opportunity for patients to really learn the nutrition plan; whether it
be Weight Watchers or ADA approved, whatever. It’s the first time that they’ve had control of their
food intake, so let’s go back and provide the support and education in medical nutrition. Patients
are thrilled with how flat their blood glucoses are after meals as well.


(I like that. Symlin is not just a maintenance drug; it's being used as a tool to regain total health. -p)


diaTribe: We’ve heard that the outcomes in the field are actually better than they were in the clinical
trials.

Kruger: Yes, I would say that too. The outcome in the field is a hundred percent better.

diaTribe: Wow – why do you think that is?

Kruger: I’m constantly saying that we finally have a chance to take these drugs out for a real test
drive, because when you have to hold to the letter of a protocol in a clinical trial, you can’t be your
own clinician. You can be a safety guru to make sure that the patient is safe, and you can also make
sure the protocol is followed to the letter, but you can’t individualize treatment. Now I get to sit in
front of the individual patient and see how Symlin or Byetta best fits into their life. And I’ll tell you,
the A1c lowering and the weight loss with both of these drugs are so much more dramatic than we
ever saw in the clinical trials.

diaTribe: So what are you seeing? Are you actually seeing A1c drops of more than a point or so,
from a lowish baseline?

Kruger: Yes. Yes. Yes. In fact, what I’m seeing is so dramatic, and I know I’m not the only one, that
I keep trying to send these case studies to Amylin saying these are better than what you’re using for
your training. And they keep saying, “We can’t use them because we have to stay within the guidelines.”
So, yes, I am seeing dramatic weight loss, and I am seeing dramatic lowering of A1cs way
beyond what the FDA approval was based on.

diaTribe: Can you talk about how patients feel about the drugs now that they’ve been out for a
year?

Kruger: Oh yes. You know, there are always naysayers in the world, but I’ll tell you that my
patients do not turn away from three extra injections a day if they get the benefit of Symlin. And
people with type 2 diabetes who are not on injections do not mind taking the two injections if they
get to use Byetta. It’s a different thought process with Symlin. I am not minimizing the fact that
there’s a whole psychology to taking injections. But we can lay out benefits to a patient—their A1c
will be lower, their blood glucoses will be better, and they probably will lose weight and feel better.
I do not hang my hat on the weight loss part because some patients aren’t going to lose weight, and
I don’t want them to get discouraged from the improvement of the A1c because for them that’s still
a major benefit, and that’s not a reason not to use a drug. But I’ll tell you, I don’t have patients that
turn away from using Symlin or Byetta because those drugs are injectables. I just don’t.

diaTribe: Why do you think adherence is such a problem?

Kruger: Well, I think what you have to remember is that life is really ... busy. I think if you look at
any of us – I have hypertension, I have elevated lipids, and I have all of these other issues that I am
personally dealing with. I understand what the ramifications are if I don’t take care of them. Do I always
eat well? And when I’m on the road, how do I compensate for all of that and how do I manage
to get all of that done and still live my life? Then you think about people who have all those diseases
I just mentioned, and they have diabetes on top 0f that. That’s typical. And I’m saying to them, “I
want you to exercise. I want you to follow a diet. I want you to take six blood glucoses a day. I want
you to wear an insulin pump. I want you to take Symlin and I want you to call me every three days.”
So, tell me, would you have time to have a life? So is the issue adherence, or is it life?

[peanuts]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

[jiesen]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

Thanks, Peanuts! I think the European launch is the thing to watch for now. That will give some good indication in the near term as to what the total market is going to look like - but I would think it'd have to be at least double what the US market is... Next will be LAR, where in a few years you could see another doubling of sales, easily.

Good luck with the position- I hope to be toasting you when we're at $80 next year.

[peanuts]

Ok, Jiesen the genius, I'm finally convinced. I bought AMLN today @ $39.50. With the recent news of Pfizer's drug research being stopped for a major product, I think that the attention to pharms will increase- and special attention will be paid to those companies with promising new drugs. Thank you so much for continually raising my attention to AMLN http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif Hopefully, I'll toast to you in the future.

This sucker is taking a nose dive this morning :(

[spikefader]

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/1397/2981mo6.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/7370/6579km1.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/22/news/companies/amylin_eli_lilly.reut/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote

This is HUGE news for AMLN, and will lead to an even greater number of prescriptions for Byetta:

Amylin-Lilly diabetes drug widens use

FDA gives diabetes drug Byetta a green light as an add-on therapy to improve blood sugar control.

December 22 2006: 5:14 PM EST

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. and Eli Lilly and Co. said Friday the Food and Drug Administration has approved their diabetes drug Byetta as an add-on therapy to improve blood sugar control in people with type 2 diabetes who have not achieved adequate control on a thiazolidinedione, or TZD.
Byetta is already approved for treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes who are unsuccessful at controlling their blood sugar levels despite using the commonly prescribed oral medications metformin, a sulfonylurea, or a thiazolidinedione.

[jiesen]

This sucker is taking a nose dive this morning :(

Peanuts, are you still holding onto your AMLN? If not, it's now back above where you bought it...;)

[peanuts]

Peanuts, are you still holding onto your AMLN? If not, it's now back above where you bought it...;)

you got that right, dude!!! I've been a very good boy with this stock. :cramersmiley:

Thanks again for bringing it to all of our attention :)

[peanuts]

$$$HUGE$$$ day, J, HUGE :)

You sees? He's a genius!!! :D

[jiesen]

We've been expecting an approval for room-temp Byetta pens for a while (which should lead to higher sales), and the time has apparently arrived. Read the first testimony to it here:

From the IV board:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=18269&pt=msg&mid=1456862


Msg: 18269 of 18400 2/15/2007 4:16:12 PM Recs: 35 Sentiment: Buy By: nobonesaboutit (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:void%280%29;)

Visit with Endo today - room temp approved

Had my regular visit with my Endo's CDE today. They have over 500 patients on Byetta. The did prescribe Januvia in the beginning but their experience has not been that great. Januvia is NOT as good as Byetta in the treatment of Diabetes. The benefits of Byetta far outweigh those of Januvia so they have gone back to Byetta as their first drug of choice for their patients.

The CDE did say that about 5% of their patients did see some benefit from Januvia. Many of those, however, did not have a weight problem.

The CDE thinks most Endos will adopt their view on Byetta as well.

One piece of news was that apparently the FDA has approved a label change to room temperature for Byetta. The label says that you don't have to refrigerate the pen that you are currently using but any inventory must continue to be refrigerated. The FDA said room temperature is no higher than 77 degrees.

I would expect an announcement shortly.

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070314/nyw010.html?.v=83

Delta Burke to Americans: Let's Talk about Managing Diabetes
Wednesday March 14, 7:00 am ET

- BYETTA(R) Let's Talk campaign features meet-and-greet with experts to help people manage type 2 diabetes through a more active, healthy lifestyle

-
SAN DIEGO and INDIANAPOLIS, March 14 /PRNewswire/ -- Stage, screen and film actress Delta Burke is leading the BYETTA Let's Talk campaign, sponsored by Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=amln&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=amln)) and Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lly&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=lly)). The BYETTA Let's Talk campaign is designed to educate people with type 2 diabetes about the importance of leading a healthy, active lifestyle, including taking the right medications. To learn more about the campaign, type 2 diabetes and BYETTA, log on to www.ByettaLetsTalk.com (http://www.byettaletstalk.com/).

Did you know that there are more than 20 million Americans who have diabetes -- the majority of whom are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes? That's enough people to fill all 31 professional football stadiums nearly 10 times! People who have type 2 diabetes either do not produce enough insulin and/or the cells in the body do not respond normally to insulin. Type 2 diabetes usually occurs in adults over the age of 40, but is increasingly common in younger people. "I was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at the age of 41," said Ms. Burke, who has recently appeared on the ABC television show "Boston Legal." "I want to get people talking about better management of this disease. By addressing diabetes head on, I'm in better control of my blood sugar, and I'm able to pursue my love of acting. So let's talk about proper eating, let's talk about ways to increase activity, and let's talk about how medication can play an important role. For me, adding BYETTA has made a real difference, and I am excited to have the opportunity to share my story with others who live with type 2 diabetes."
The BYETTA Let's Talk campaign will launch in Boston on March 17 at the New England Spring Flower Show. Over the summer, the campaign will visit 10 cities throughout the United States. At most events, attendees will hear firsthand from Delta Burke about her experience with type 2 diabetes and how BYETTA helps her manage the disease. Other exciting components to the campaign include:

-- Chris Smith, The Diabetic Chef, will be sharing recipes of and
preparing healthy, delicious dishes.
-- Nikki Kimbrough, fitness trainer from Bally Total Fitness,
demonstrating easy ways to incorporate physical activity into your
daily life.
-- Virginia Valentine, a certified diabetes educator, will be available to
talk one-on-one with attendees about the disease and BYETTA®
(exenatide) injection as a treatment option.
-- Booth giveaways including FlashCarbs flashcards that help people with
type 2 diabetes count carbohydrates.

"As a certified diabetes educator and someone with type 2 diabetes, I know what it takes to manage diabetes successfully. Every day, I talk with people with diabetes about leading a healthy, active lifestyle and taking the right medications," said certified diabetes educator Virginia Valentine, who will accompany Ms. Burke during the BYETTA Let's Talk campaign. "This campaign is designed to reach people with type 2 diabetes who may not know the best way to control their condition!"
For more information about the campaign, type 2 diabetes and BYETTA® (exenatide) injection, and for a list of campaign events and dates, go to www.ByettaLetsTalk.com (http://www.byettaletstalk.com/).

About the BYETTA Let's Talk campaign
The BYETTA Let's Talk campaign, sponsored by Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and Eli Lilly and Company, is designed to educate people with type 2 diabetes and their caregivers about the importance of leading an active and healthy lifestyle, including taking the right medications, such as adding treatment with BYETTA, to help successfully manage type 2 diabetes. The campaign, featuring stage, screen and film actress Delta Burke, will travel to ten cities across the United States. Attendees will have an opportunity to talk with fitness experts, chefs, healthcare professionals and others with diabetes, including Ms. Burke, about diabetes management. For more information about the BYETTA Let's Talk campaign, to download recipes, watch exercise demonstrations, and read Delta's Diary, go to www.ByettaLetsTalk.com (http://www.byettaletstalk.com/).

About BYETTA® (exenatide) injection
BYETTA is the first in a new class of drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes called incretin mimetics. BYETTA exhibits many of the same effects as the human incretin hormone glucagon like peptide-1 (GLP-1). GLP-1 improves blood sugar after food intake through multiple effects that work in concert on the stomach, liver, pancreas and brain. BYETTA is approved by the FDA for use by people with type 2 diabetes who are unsuccessful at controlling their blood sugar levels. BYETTA is an add-on therapy for people currently using metformin, a sulfonylurea, or a thiazolidinedione. For full prescribing information, visit www.BYETTA.com (http://www.byetta.com/).

About Diabetes
Diabetes affects more than 20 million in the United States and an estimated 194 million adults worldwide.(1,2) Approximately 90-95 percent of those affected have type 2 diabetes. Diabetes is the fifth leading cause of death by disease in the United States and costs approximately $132 billion per year in direct and indirect medical expenses.(3)
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, approximately 60 percent of people with diabetes do not achieve their target blood sugar levels with their current treatment regimen.(4)
Important Safety Information for BYETTA® (exenatide) injection
BYETTA improves glucose (blood sugar) control in patients with type 2 diabetes who are taking metformin, a sulfonylurea, or a thiazolidinedione. BYETTA is not a substitute for insulin in patients whose diabetes requires insulin treatment. BYETTA is not recommended for use in patients with severe problems with the stomach or food digestion, or those who have severe kidney disease. Before using BYETTA, patients should tell their healthcare provider if they are pregnant, plan to become pregnant, or are breastfeeding. BYETTA has not been studied in children.
When BYETTA is used with a medicine that contains a sulfonylurea, hypoglycemia (low blood sugar) is a possible side effect. To reduce this possibility, the dose of sulfonylurea medicine may need to be reduced while using BYETTA. Other common side effects with BYETTA include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, dizziness, headache, feeling jittery, and acid stomach. Nausea is most common when first starting BYETTA, but decreases over time in most patients. BYETTA may reduce appetite, the amount of food eaten, and body weight. No changes in dose are needed for these side effects. These are not all the side effects with BYETTA. A healthcare provider should be consulted about any side effect that is bothersome or does not go away.

For complete safety profile and other important prescribing considerations, visit www.BYETTA.com (http://www.byetta.com/).

About Amylin and Lilly
Amylin Pharmaceuticals is a biopharmaceutical company committed to improving lives through the discovery, development and commercialization of innovative medicines. Amylin has developed and gained approval for two first-in-class medicines for diabetes. Amylin's research and development activities leverage the company's expertise in metabolism to develop potential therapies to treat diabetes and obesity. Amylin is located in San Diego, California with over 1,500 employees nationwide. For more information about Amylin and the company's diabetes products, visit www.amylin.com (http://www.amylin.com/).
Through a long-standing commitment to diabetes care, Lilly provides patients with breakthrough treatments that enable them to live longer, healthier and fuller lives. Since 1923, Lilly has been the industry leader in pioneering therapies to help health care professionals improve the lives of people with diabetes, and research continues on innovative medicines to address the unmet needs of patients. For more information about Lilly's current diabetes products visit www.lillydiabetes.com (http://www.lillydiabetes.com/).

Lilly, a leading innovation-driven corporation, is developing a growing portfolio of first-in-class and best-in-class pharmaceutical products by applying the latest research from its own worldwide laboratories and from collaborations with eminent scientific organizations. Headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana, Lilly provides answers -- through medicines and information -- for some of the world's most urgent medical needs. Additional information about Lilly is available at www.lilly.com (http://www.lilly.com/).
P-LLY

[jiesen]

USE OF AMYLIN AND AMYLIN AGONISTS AS CARDIOPROTECTIVE OR MYOPROTECTIVE AGENTS



http://v3.espacenet.com/textdoc?DB=EPODOC&IDX=WO2007014051&F=0


[0001] USE OF AMYLIN AND AMYLIN AGONISTS AS CARDIOPROTECTIVE OR

[0002] MYOPROTECTIVE AGENTS

[0003] FIELD OF THE INVENTION

[0004] [0001] The present invention relates to the medical field and in particular to the area of heart disease, diseases that affect the heart and cardiovascular system, and the skeletal system.

[0005] BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

[0006] [0002] It has been stated that cardiovascular disease is by far the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in the developed world. By the year 2020, it is predicted that acute coronary occlusion will be the major cause of death in the world. Therefore, despite much time, money and effort that has been expended to understand, treat and prevent various cardiac and cardiovascular diseases, there continues to be a need for greater understanding of the diseases and effective options for treating them.

[0007] [0003] Cardiac and cardiovascular diseases include left ventricular hypertrophy, coronary artery disease, essential hypertension, acute hypertensive emergency, cardiomyopathy, heart insufficiency, exercise tolerance, chronic heart failure, arrhythmia, cardiac dysrhythmia, syncopy, atheroschlerosis, mild chronic heart failure, angina pectoris, cardiac bypass reocclusion, intermittent claudication (atheroschlerosis oblitterens), diastolic dysfunction and systolic dysfuntion. [0004] Abnormal Na+/K+-ATPase enzyme, or sodium pump, activity has been postulated to be involved in the pathophysiology of several diseases, including cardiac and cardiovascular diseases, among others. These complex effects may be related to the role of the pump in controlling the cellular ingress of other molecules.

[0008] [0005] The Na+/K+-ATPase enzyme is a membrane protein responsible for establishing an electrochemical gradient of Na+ and K+ ions across the plasma membrane of mammalian cells. The ion gradient formed by this enzyme is necessary for the active transport of essential nutrients into the cells, for regulation of osmotic balance and cell volume, and for maintaining the resting membrane potential in excitable cells. The Na+/K+-ATPase enzyme is the only known receptor for cardiac glycosides such as digitalis. The tight conservation of the digitalis binding site over many phyla, among other observations, suggests the existence of endogenous sodium pump inhibitors (SPIs) in mammals as well. These hypothetical mammalian inhibitors would be involved in modulating the activity of the sodium pump, and might be involved in vivo sodium homeostasis.

[0009] [0006] There are at least 3 isoforms of each the [alpha]- and [beta]-subunits of Na+/K+-ATPase. These are distributed in a tissue-specific manner, and show different functional characteristics (e.g., different affinities to Na+ or cardiac glycosides). Acute effects of numerous hormones on Na+/K+-ATPase appear to be receptor mediated, and hence dependent upon the existence of the relevant receptors in tissues of interest. Receptor distribution is highly tissue specific, so various tissues may not respond similarly to a particular hormone. [0007] It is generally understood that transmembrane sodium and potassium gradients across cells represent stored electrochemical potential, the release of which powers impulse propagation in excitable tissues such as nerves and muscles, including heart muscle. This potential is established in an energy-consuming Na+/K+ exchange whereby Na+ is pumped out of cells and K+ is pumped into cells via a transporter, Na+/K+-ATPase. [0008] Compounds such as calcitonin gene related peptide and intermedin have been purported to have an effect on the heart. Gennari et al. 1990, concludes that CGRP improves myocardial contractility in patients with congestive heart. WO 2004/048547 describes intermedin (AFP-6) and lists its potential use as a hypotensive agent, as a cardioprotective agent, in the regulation of gastrointestinal motility, and in stimulating the release of prolactin, e.g. as an aid in fertilization, lactation, pre-term labor, and the like.

[0010] [0009] Amylin

[0011] [0010] Human amylin is a 37 amino acid peptide hormone that is co-secreted with insulin from pancreatic [beta]-cells in response to nutrient stimuli. Human amylin has the following amino acid sequence:

[0012] Lys-Cys-Asn-Thr-Ala-Thr-Cys-Ala-Thr-GlnArg-Leu-Ala-Asn-Phe-Leu-Val-His-Ser-Ser-Asn-Asn- Phe-Gly-Ala-ne-Leu-Ser-Ser-Thr-Asn-Val-Gly-Ser-Asn-Thr-Tyr (SEQ ID NO:1). [0011] Amylin is believed to regulate gastric emptying, and suppress glucagon secretion and food intake, thus regulating the rate of glucose appearance in the circulation. It appears to complement the actions of insulin, which regulates the rate of glucose disappearance from the circulation and its uptake by peripheral tissues. These actions are supported by experimental findings in rodents and humans, which indicate that amylin complements the effects of insulin in postprandial glucose control by at least three independent mechanisms, all of which affect the rate of glucose appearance. [0012] First, amylin suppresses postprandial glucagon secretion. Compared to healthy adults, patients with type 1 diabetes have no circulating amylin and patients with type 2 diabetes have diminished postprandial amylin concentrations. Furthermore, infusion of an amylin specific monoclonal antibody, which bound circulating amylin, again resulted in greatly elevated glucagon concentrations relative to controls. Both of these results point to a physiological role of endogenous amylin in the regulation of postprandial glucagon secretion. Second, amylin slows gastrointestinal motility and gastric emptying. Finally, intrahypothalamic injections of rat amylin were shown to reduce feeding in rats and alter neurotransmitter metabolism in the hypothalamus. In certain studies, food intake was significantly reduced for up to eight hours following the intrahypothalamic injection of rat amylin and rat CGRP. [0013] In human trials, an amylin analog, pramlintide, has been shown to reduce weight or weight gain. Amylin may be beneficial in treating metabolic conditions such as diabetes and obesity. Amylin may also be used to treat pain, bone disorders, gastritis, to modulate lipids, in particular triglycerides, or to affect body composition such as the preferential loss of fat and sparing of lean tissue. [0014] It has now surprisingly been found that amylin and its agonists may have a cardioprotective, myoprotective effect, or both.

[0013] SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

...

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Remember all the controversy over Delta Burke's weight gain when "Designing Women" was a major TV show? They threatened firing her. Did it turn out that diabetes was the cause ?

--------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
Remember all the controversy over Delta Burke's weight gain when "Designing Women" was a major TV show? They threatened firing her. Did it turn out that diabetes was the cause ?

--------------billyjoe

That very well could be:

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=20354&pt=msg&mid=1688241
Caregiving: Delta Burke on diabetes

By ALEX CUKAN
UPI Health Correspondent ALBANY, N.Y., March 16 (UPI) -- Actress and diabetic Delta Burke, perhaps best known for her role as straight-talking Suzanne Sugarbaker on the TV show "Designing Women" (1986-1993), says now she wants to so some straight-talking on diabetes management.

"By addressing diabetes head on, I'm in better control of my blood sugar, and I'm able to pursue my love of acting," said Burke, who recently appeared in ABC's "Boston Legal."

"Let's talk about proper eating, let's talk about ways to increase activity and let's talk about how medication can play an important role," she said.
The stage, screen and film actress -- and the wife of actor Gerald McRaney -- leads the Let's Talk campaign, which sheds light on the importance of managing diabetes. The campaign begins Saturday in Boston at the New England Spring Flower Show and continues to 10 U.S. cities throughout the summer. At most events, attendees will hear firsthand from Burke about her experience with type 2 diabetes.

About 10 years ago Burke was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes at the same time she was a caregiver to her mother, who was being treated for breast cancer.

"I was feeling funny the last couple of years (before the diagnosis) and I was going to doctors. They thought I might have something like Epstein-Barr (virus)," Burke told UPI's Caregiving.
Finally, one doctor did some testing and diagnosed type 2 diabetes. Burke didn't need insulin, but she did need medication and was told to exercise and watch her diet.

Did Burke's caregiving and the stress of her mother's illness have anything to do with her diabetes?

Virginia Valentine, a certified diabetes educator who will be available to talk one-on-one with attendees at the Let's Talk campaign, says Burke's diabetes may have been hastened by her caregiver stress.

"For many people who have a genetic predisposition to diabetes, stress (makes) it harder to manage a healthier lifestyle and may be a trigger. But it might have happened later as well," Valentine told Caregiving.

Millions of Americans with type 2 diabetes do not get diagnosed, especially without regular doctor visits, "so it creeps up a little bit at the time," Valentine said.

Burke, whose only relative with diabetes was her father's mother, said she had always watched what she ate. In fact, sometimes she didn't eat at all.
In 1974, after high school, Burke won the Miss Florida title. When she became an actress, she says she was hypoglycemic, sometimes passing out, and at the time she didn't realize her excessively low blood sugar might have something to do with her spiking blood sugar later in life.

"I wish I had had more information back then," Burke said. "There was always so much pressure to be thin, I was size 6 and when I got to Hollywood I was told to lose weight. Sometimes I would not eat for seven days, but by the time I was in my 30s I couldn't do that kind of thing anymore."

In fact, Burke's devotion to dieting may have only added to her problem. There have been several studies that show that dieting is linked to greater weight gain over time among adolescents.

Burke's weight gain did not go unnoticed, but she received her first Emmy nomination for best actress in her role as Sugarbaker for the episode "They Shoot Fat Women, Don't They?" in which Burke's character attended her 15-year high school reunion and got her feelings hurt after hearing disparaging remarks about her weight.


"At that time I took my medicine and paid attention to what I was eating -- I had given up things like sugar and white flour long ago -- but my blood sugar was still spiking," Burke said. "My doctors said I needed to get a better hold on my blood sugar or I would end up on insulin. Then I got really strict with my diet and lost 20 pounds -- I only ate meat, vegetables and fruit."

However, Burke said she later still had blood sugar "jumping all over the place."

In Los Angeles, a doctor mentioned a new kind of drug to Burke: incretin mimetics, which worked quickly to keep her blood sugar in a normal range.
Incretin mimetics are a new class of drugs that exhibit many of the same effects as the human incretin hormone glucagon, which improves blood sugar after food intake and works in concert on the stomach, liver, pancreas and brain. [Glucagon is a pancreatic hormone secreted by alpha-cells. ...war]
"This is a special, totally unique drug based on a natural hormone, which 20 years ago was unknown," Valentine said.

-- Alex Cukan is an award-winning journalist, but she has also been a caregiver since she was a teenager. UPI welcomes comments and questions about this column. E-mail: consumerhealth@upi.com

http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/caregiving_delta_burke_on_diabetes/20070316-122748-5977r/

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
A friend of mine who had juvenile diabetes had shocking weight gains and losses. It was sad. His wife also had diabetes. They married young at about 19 knowing they didn't have much time. They made it a little past their 40's. I went to their wedding and their funerals.

--------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

AMLN continues to make steady progress in Byetta sales, setting a new weekly record of 58269 scrips for Byetta. Check out the sales data:

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

As the scrip #'s go up, so must the stock... and remember, we still have all of Europe to service, then there's Byetta LAR, nasal delivery, and weight loss claims, and the list goes on!

[jiesen]

which means that more people will be buying the stuff!

from:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070921/amylin_pharmaceuticals_mover.html?.v=1

AP
Amylin Shares Rise on Study Claim
Friday September 21, 12:12 pm ET
Amylin Pharmaceuticals Shares Rise on Study Claim Comparing Byetta With Competitor

NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. jumped Friday after the company and its partner Eli Lilly & Co. cited a study claiming its diabetes drug Byetta is more effective than Sanofi-Aventis' Lantus.

San Diego-based Amylin and Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly said a one-year study showed that Byetta was more effective in treating type 2 diabetes and patients lost weight. The companies said patients taking Lantus gained weight. The results were presented at the 43rd Annual Meeting of the European Association for the Study of Diabetes in Amsterdam. It involved 69 people.Shares of Amylin rose $1.64, or 3.4 percent, to $49.68 in midday trading. The stock has traded between $35.55 and $53.25 over the last 52 weeks. Shares of Eli Lilly rose 77 cents to $57.85 and shares of Paris-based Sanofi-Aventis fell 40 cents to $42.70.

"We think these results bode well for the upcoming Byetta monotherapy results--expected in the fourth quarter--in early-stage patients as this study clearly demonstrates Byetta's efficacy in earlier-stage patients," wrote FBR Research analyst Jim Reddoch, in a note to investors.
He said positive study results from the monotherapy results could add an additional 8 million eligible patients to Byetta's current total of about 5 million. He reaffirmed a "Outperform" rating on the stock and $62 price target.

[jiesen]

It wasn't in the news, but it's posted on the FDA site... AMLN received an approval for a package change for Symlin.

from:
http://www.fda.gov/cder/whatsnew.htm

September 27, 2007

New and Generic Drug Approvals (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm)
Abilify (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021866&SearchType=BasicSearch) (aripiprazole) Intramuscular Injection, Otsuka, Labeling Revision
Abilify (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021729&SearchType=BasicSearch) (aripiprazole) DISCMELT, Otsuka, Labeling Revision
Abilify (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021713&SearchType=BasicSearch) (aripiprazole) Oral Solution, Otsuka, Labeling Revision
Abilify (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021436&SearchType=BasicSearch) (aripiprazole) Tablets, Otsuka, Labeling Revision
Albuterol (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=077772&SearchType=BasicSearch) Sulfate Inhalation Solution, Watson Labs, Approval
Gabapentin (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=078150&SearchType=BasicSearch) Capsules, Hikma Pharma, Approval
KALETRA (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021906&SearchType=BasicSearch) (lopinavir/ritonavir) Tablets, Abbott Labs, Labeling Revision
KALETRA (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021251&SearchType=BasicSearch) (lopinavir/ritonavir) Oral Solution, Abbott Labs, Labeling Revision
Methimazole (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=040870&SearchType=BasicSearch) Tablets, Caraco Pharma, Approval
Symlin (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=021332&SearchType=BasicSearch) (pramlintide acetate) Injection, Amylin Pharma, Package Change
Zebeta (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=019982&SearchType=BasicSearch) (bisoprolol fumarate) Tablets, Duramed Pharma, Labeling Revision
Ziac (http://www.accessdata.fda.gov/scripts/cder/drugsatfda/index.cfm?fuseaction=Search.SearchAction&searchTerm=020186&SearchType=BasicSearch) (bisoprolol fumarate and hydrochlorothiazide) Tablets, Duramed Pharma, Labeling Revision
PDUFA Information: Notice to Applicants Submitting NDAs/BLAs to CDER/CBER for Fiscal Year 2008 (http://www.fda.gov/cder/pdufa/2008_rates.htm)

[jiesen]

This post really belongs here:
Quote:
Originally Posted by New-born baby http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showthread.php?p=88523#post88523)
Jiesen,
Whatever happened to AMLN? Looking short to $36 on this once high flier.

AMLN is getting taken down hard on good news. Just like it did when Byetta and Symlin were approved. Stock tanked from $25 to 15 (or something like that) and it provided me a great entry at $20.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/071031/law097.html?.v=101

Now it's the same thing, imo. Byetta LAR (Long-acting release version) clinical data just came in, says it's better than Byetta, and so someone is dropping the price... perhaps trying to exit a big short, or buy a big piece of the company on the cheap.

AMLN is a bargain at $41, but that doesn't mean it won't go to $30 before taking off again.

Sales will pick up with Byetta LAR, but it will take a couple of years. Approval is still not guaranteed, but it should happen in 2009. With once per week injections, instead of twice daily, there will be little excuse left for doctors not to prescribe it. Plus, it works better at controlling glucose levels! Many people using Byetta now are reducing, or even eliminating their need for insulin injections. I don't think the competing drugs (Januvia) are able to do the same.

The reason Januvia is outselling Byetta now is mostly the inconvenience of the injections vs the convenience of Januvia's pill form, but also because of the weight of MRK's marketing machine. When people wise up and realize which drug actually performs better, the sales will finally reflect it.

I still think AMLN is a great stock to own, and still own my $20 shares. However, LJPC offers a much greater opportunity for weekly triple-digit gains, which is what I'm hoping to get here (one of these days). When positive Riquent results are announced (and they should be someday soon) the stock has the potential to jump from $4 to $40 in a month, week, or even a day. I would hate to be out of LJPC on that day...
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/misc/progress.gif

[jiesen]

Interesting post from AMLN msg board:

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=2885&mn=35986&pt=msg&mid=3386035

Msg: 35986 of 36084 11/5/2007 9:14:53 PM Author: briang60 (http://www1.investorvillage.com/viewprofile.asp?m=BA1F58EA8FB91AD1)

Why I am not worried

We have seen this bs before. I think that most of us are just pissed that we KNEW we would get slammed again when the good LAR news was released but still just hung on. What encourages me though is the massive effort that goes into keeping the share price down. The crap that is pawned off as analysis is ridiculous. Lets review a few.

1. One injection a day(lirg.) is much better than twice a day, however, one injection a week vs. one a day means nothing.

2. Patients who take Byetta have reported pancreatitis, this is very bad. Hey! But the numbers show that the incidence of pancreatitis is actually LOWER for those on Byetta than the general population of diabetics, so this should be good, right? "No, were you not listening, patients on Byetta have reported pancreatitis!"
"But at a lower rate ,right?"
""All we are at liberty to disclose is that patients on Byetta have reported pancreatitis."

3.The time line for Exenatide Lar is highly in doubt and many delays are probable, but Lirg. will have zero delays. After all, Lirg. has no history as an approved drug and Lar is just a better version of an old already approved drug. We view this as a positive for Lirg.

4. Due to the assured delays of Lar and the prompt approval of Lirg. Lar will be behind Lirg. by 6-9 months and this is a HUGE advantage, however, the 3+ year head start of Byetta bid over Lirg. is of no consequence.

5. Exenatide Lar ONLY reduced A1C by 1.9% as compared to Byetta BID of 1.5%. We really needed the difference to be much larger. After all, 25% of patients on Lar FAILED to reach the 7% goal of the ADA.
"But 75% reached the goal, no treatment has ever had that % reach 7% or below."
"We prefer to state that 25% FAILED to reach the 7% goal."

I am sure there are more examples and I am also sure that some of my examples may not be completely accurate, but you get the general idea. Someone really wants to keep the price down and our shares. Mine still are not for sale. I have the long term view. I still think the science and the best therapy will win out.

Brian

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080610/amylin_exenatide_lar.html?.v=1

Amylin posts solid results for once-weekly Byetta
Tuesday June 10, 9:12 am ET
Amylin says once-weekly Byetta lowers sugar better than twice-daily version

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. late Monday said that a once-weekly version of its diabetes drug Byetta lowered blood sugar in patients more than Byetta, which is taken twice daily, though shares were down early Tuesday.

Amylin shares shed 14 cents to $26.70 in premarket trading.The drug candidate, known as Exenatide LAR, lowered glucose levels by 1.9 percent over 30 weeks, compared with a 1.5 percent reduction for Byetta over the same period.
Amylin added that at 52 weeks, Exenatide LAR patients saw the reduction maintained at 2 percent. In addition, patients who switched to Exenatide LAR after 30 weeks of Byetta also had a blood sugar reduction of 2 percent over a year.
In addition, Exenatide LAR patients saw an average weight loss of 9.5 pounds over the year.
Eli Lilly and Co. and Alkermes Inc. are partners on Exenatide LAR.
Amylin shares have been hammered in recent days as Danish competitor Novo Nordisk A/S presented head-to-head data on its late-stage type 2 diabetes drug liraglutide, showing it lowered blood sugar better than Byetta. Liraglutide is given once daily.
Exenatide LAR also has competition among once-weekly treatments. Switzerland-based Roche AG said Tuesday that it presented midstage data at the American Diabetes Association annual meeting on its drug taspoglutide demonstrating a lowering of glucose levels and weight loss after eight weeks. As a result, Roche said it is moving the drug into late-stage trials in the second half of the year.
Novo Nordisk shares lost $1.91, or nearly 3 percent, to $65.12 in premarket trading.