View Full Version : what do you think?
Runner
06-25-2005, 03:07 PM
Giving the last week of the markets performance what do you think traders/investors should do?
Buy
Hold
Sell
Short
Not sure
I voted buy...there's always something moving...check the group action. Last week, of the 10 DJ Super Sectors...9 were down...but Utilities were up even though The DJ Utilities Index was down...gains were concentrated in Electric Utilities which is the most heavily weighted in the Sector.
Of the 100 DJ Groups...only 7 were green...but that makes it easier to concentrate on the movers...at least for the short term trader...I tend to do better long on my quick MoMo trades when the market is flat or down(unless it really tanks)...I'm convinced that the reason is that when the market is flying...there are too many for me to watch and I end up making hasty decisions...That's my take for the quick trader...Of course, most of my trades are held for minutes or hours...So, my thoughts are not really applicable to longer term investors.
I believe Swing Traders should put more emphasis on the market flow. Intermediate Term investors should too...along with EPS which is KING for intermediate/longer termers IMO....IIC
Websman
06-25-2005, 05:34 PM
I also voted buy. I like to take advantage of the markets weakness.
New-born baby
06-25-2005, 05:37 PM
Giving the last week of the markets performance what do you think traders/investors should do?
Buy
Hold
Sell
Short
Not sure
Runner,
Your options should have included this one:
"Stand back out of the way and let her fall!"
On the more serious side, IIC is right; something is moving up, somewhere.
The market is still good for daytrading, up or down.
I was almost done and my post disappeared?
Any way as I was saying I have to vote not sure although I did buy pdc and added to eca with the money from ebay which I sold. Guess you have to go the way that will not cost any lost sleep.Like Doug said there Is some thing always moving but It sure Is tough to hit them with a dart.
Doug what do you mean by the dj super sectors and where do you find them?And also the 100 dj groups?
We should get at least two up days although they might not be much.THEN WE HAVE THE FED.
New-born baby
06-25-2005, 08:48 PM
I was almost done and--THEN WE HAVE THE FED.
http://img12.echo.cx/img12/6625/chart10tg.gif (http://www.imageshack.us)
Did somebody use MY name in vain?
New-born baby
06-25-2005, 08:50 PM
RL, you're in trouble now!
http://img12.echo.cx/img12/5265/chart27sq.th.gif (http://img12.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart27sq.gif)
(Audio has been shut off for good reason).
I was almost done and my post disappeared?
Any way as I was saying I have to vote not sure although I did buy pdc and added to eca with the money from ebay which I sold. Guess you have to go the way that will not cost any lost sleep.Like Doug said there Is some thing always moving but It sure Is tough to hit them with a dart.
Doug what do you mean by the dj super sectors and where do you find them?And also the 100 dj groups?
We should get at least two up days although they might not be much.THEN WE HAVE THE FED.
I think this site was having problems yesterday...I had the same thing happen...but since the site froze up on me a few times I copied my post and pasted it later.
Dow Jones has 10 major sectors...I call them Super Sectors(my own term)...They have 100 groups within those Sectors...however on DJ news they call those 100 "sectors"...In Barron's they call them Industry groups.
They list them in Barron's all on one page.
However, you can see them at: http://trimurl.com/1JU
New-born baby
06-26-2005, 09:04 AM
Doug,
When it comes to investing knowledge, you're simply incredible.
BTW, which MM pick looks best to you?
Of his pix I would watch PTC closely...I would wait until the StochRSI moves above .20 and then check other factors to see what's up...Doug(IIC)
P.S. EPS is July 25th. They have also been getting some positive coverage lately
Runner
06-26-2005, 10:00 AM
I chose the “not sure”. The reason is many stocks have pulled back to support levels, but this week will set a better tone. If more selling pressure is applied to the markets then I’ll swing to Bearish mode. If I start seeing current support levels failing then Short it will be.
Based on current indices charts my sentiment is bearish based off the last few trading days, however we pulled back pretty good the last few sessions. I think entry in short positions has to much risk at this time, unless more pressure is applied. Long positions appear to have less risk based on support and resistance. If one does go long from current support I favor tight stops just under support. I believe we will also see more whipsawing in the markets as earning season tends to bring on more volatility.
So this should prove to be an interesting week and soon we shall see what the market gives us. You can also see by reading this how I see a mixed bag of tricks!!
Love your sense of humor to bad you did not have a picture with Greenspan In devil horns. Talking about sense of humor It's just great on this sight,never bad mouthing anyone but trying to sincerly helping other members Hope we all have a good week.
Runner
06-26-2005, 10:07 AM
I think this site was having problems yesterday...I had the same thing happen...but since the site froze up on me a few times I copied my post and pasted it later.
Dow Jones has 10 major sectors...I call them Super Sectors(my own term)...They have 100 groups within those Sectors...however on DJ news they call those 100 "sectors"...In Barron's they call them Industry groups.
They list them in Barron's all on one page.
However, you can see them at: http://trimurl.com/1JUx = document.all.trimurl.createTextRange();x.execComma nd("Copy");
IIC, thanks for this site
Glad you cleared that up for me I was confused [Thats easy for me] Doug your the man. By the way nice pick last week.
Runner
06-26-2005, 10:10 AM
I voted buy...there's always something moving...check the group action. Last week, of the 10 DJ Super Sectors...9 were down...but Utilities were up even though The DJ Utilities Index was down...gains were concentrated in Electric Utilities which is the most heavily weighted in the Sector.
Of the 100 DJ Groups...only 7 were green...but that makes it easier to concentrate on the movers...at least for the short term trader...I tend to do better long on my quick MoMo trades when the market is flat or down(unless it really tanks)...I'm convinced that the reason is that when the market is flying...there are too many for me to watch and I end up making hasty decisions...That's my take for the quick trader...Of course, most of my trades are held for minutes or hours...So, my thoughts are not really applicable to longer term investors.
I believe Swing Traders should put more emphasis on the market flow. Intermediate Term investors should too...along with EPS which is KING for intermediate/longer termers IMO....IIC
I agree with your approach. Something is always moving and nothing wrong with grabbing a little when ya can!!
Runner
06-26-2005, 10:12 AM
I also voted buy. I like to take advantage of the markets weakness.
Follow your plan because you really don’t know how much weaker things can become!
Runner
06-26-2005, 10:15 AM
NB, I'm beginning to think you and Greenman our buddies!!
I voted buy...there's always something moving...check the group action. Last week, of the 10 DJ Super Sectors...9 were down...but Utilities were up even though The DJ Utilities Index was down...gains were concentrated in Electric Utilities which is the most heavily weighted in the Sector.
Of the 100 DJ Groups...only 7 were green...but that makes it easier to concentrate on the movers...at least for the short term trader...I tend to do better long on my quick MoMo trades when the market is flat or down(unless it really tanks)...I'm convinced that the reason is that when the market is flying...there are too many for me to watch and I end up making hasty decisions...That's my take for the quick trader...Of course, most of my trades are held for minutes or hours...So, my thoughts are not really applicable to longer term investors.
I believe Swing Traders should put more emphasis on the market flow. Intermediate Term investors should too...along with EPS which is KING for intermediate/longer termers IMO....IIC
CORRECTION...The DJ Utilities Index was not down for the week....Sorry.
skiracer
06-26-2005, 01:50 PM
There are several factors that could adversely affect the markets. We'll have to watch closely to see which way the wind is going to blow. No one has mentioned it but the $SOX and SMH have formed great looking cup with handle formations over the last 6/8 weeks and are in the later stages of their handles. If they stage any kind of a decent breakout or continuation of an upward trend it will give the markets a big boost to help push the Nasdaq through 2100. There are alot of good stocks that have gotten beaten down over the last week or so an in my opinion are great bargains at these prices. NGPS, CMTL, and HTRN are three that I like.
I got stopped out of HTRN at 13.50 early last week for a .75 gain from my 12.75 entry. Re-entered at 12.50 on Friday afterhours. Friday was a big volume day for the stock. Over 2 million shares traded an up .41 for the day after the big drop the previous two days.
NGPS and CMTL are real bargains at these levels. Any type of general move upward by the markets will carry these two up for a great swing or day trade opportunity for these two stocks.
NEW YORK - Thursday's trading on Wall Street ought to come with a warning - not for the faint of heart.
In the space of a few hours, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy on the nation's interest rates, and institutional traders - the big banks that run mutual funds, hedge funds and other investment vehicles - will react accordingly before the 4 p.m. close, attempting to strike the right balance between boosting their end-of-quarter returns and planning for future rate hikes.
This will likely result in heavy volume and wide swings in individual stock prices in the final hours of trading Thursday. But ultimately, those swings may not mean anything to investors holding stocks for the medium- to long-term, so a certain amount of forbearance, and intestinal fortitude, may be required.
However, "volatile" may not necessarily equal "bad." The Fed is likely to raise the nation's benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point to 3.25 percent, but could change its closely watched policy statement. If it does - and if the change signals an upcoming pause in rate hikes - the market could rally.
For the rest of the week, oil will remain a major concern for most investors amid only a handful of important earnings reports and economic data. Crude oil futures topped $60 per barrel for the first time Thursday, causing the stock market to plummet for two straight sessions. For the week, the Dow Jones industrial average lost 3.06 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 fell 2.09 percent, and the Nasdaq composite index dropped 1.76 percent.
ECONOMIC DATA
After the volatility of Thursday, Friday's trading may signal the market's short-term direction, thanks to the ISM Index. The Institute for Supply Management measures the health of the nation's manufacturing sector, and its index for June, which comes out Friday morning, is expected to come in at 51.5, a slight increase from May's 51.4 reading.
A few other reports could move the markets earlier in the week, oil notwithstanding. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, due Tuesday, is expected to improve to 104.1 in June, up from 102.2 in May. However, that expectation may have been made before oil prices surged last week, so a surprise on the negative side could occur.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department will release its final figures for the first quarter's gross domestic product growth. GDP was expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.7 percent, up from previous first-quarter estimates of 3.5 percent.
EARNINGS
The technology sector could see some movement Wednesday as software maker Oracle Corp. reports its quarterly earnings before the session. Oracle is expected to earn 23 cents per share, up from 19 cents per share in the year-ago quarter. The company's stock is up 28.1 percent from its 52-week low of $9.78 on Aug. 12, 2004, closing Friday at $12.50.
Sporting goods maker Nike Inc. has had a more volatile ride, trading between $68.61 and $92.43 over the last year and closing Friday at $89.35. Wall Street analysts expect Nike to earn $1.28 per share, up from $1.13 per share a year ago, when it reports its earnings Monday morning.
Drug store chain Walgreen Co. is forecast to earn 38 cents per share, up from 33 cents per share last year, when it reports its earnings before Monday's session. The company's stock is up 27.2 percent from its 52-week low of $34.89 on Aug. 6, 2004, closing Friday at $44.38. Walgreen earnings could move retail stocks, many of which will report their monthly sales figures starting Friday and stretching into the following week.
EVENTS
The Fed's Open Market Committee is expected to issue its statement on interest rates at 2:15 p.m. EDT Thursday. The second quarter officially ends at 4 p.m. that day.
On Friday, automakers will be releasing their monthly sales data, which can move auto stocks a great deal.
New-born baby
06-26-2005, 03:06 PM
Love your sense of humor to bad you did not have a picture with Greenspan In devil horns. Talking about sense of humor It's just great on this sight,never bad mouthing anyone but trying to sincerly helping other members Hope we all have a good week.
Ray,
A message from Alan:
http://img145.echo.cx/img145/1550/chart14gh.th.gif (http://img145.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart14gh.gif)
The REAL ALan Greenspan:
"They just slipped out. Really. I'm not that bad. I don't know what happened. Ray. Ray-baby. Do you love me?
http://img145.echo.cx/img145/2520/chart22vr.th.gif (http://img145.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart22vr.gif)
Doug,
When it comes to investing knowledge, you're simply incredible.
BTW, which MM pick looks best to you?
Thanks for the kind words...But I'm really just a "Regular" Guy. I am a Generalist...I know a little bit about a lot of things...I am an "Expert" in nothing...But one of of my 3,156 "Sayings To Live By" is "The Smartest People Only Need To Know One Thing...Who To Call To Get The Answers"...And believe me...it is true...I don't know a lot of things...but I know who to contact for the answers.
Actually, I could honestly say that I am a CANSLIM semi-expert...even though I don't follow the system...And I know people that understand the theory better than I...But I will guarantee I know it better than those jokers IBD sends to the Expo's and Trade Show's...IIC
Since I'm holding only one stock, I'm going with hold. I was just a bit early in buying back ERS. I would have normally set a stop and eaten it, but...
- I'm already very far ahead on it
- As I said, it's my only holding, so movement won't put a big dent in things.
Certainly don't plan to buy anything else until the market finds support and direction.
give me your take on crl hit with the dart and think I'm going to buy?
Runner
06-29-2005, 02:30 PM
Herre is my take on CRL:
http://img168.echo.cx/img168/8421/crl0ow.png (http://www.imageshack.us)
What do you think? Buy/Hold/Wait? I say wait, but just my take!
Input I did not buy yet waiting to see what happens to market after fed If It goes down then I'm a buyer Sure wish I could understand the chart you sent
vBulletin® v3.8.0, Copyright ©2000-2012, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.