Skiracer's stock slopes

[skiracer]

I took a position in Ipxl at 17 about a week and a half to two weeks ago an have been in an out of it several times over the last couple of months. Up a few bucks with it to date. I like it's long base (double bottom not quite complete yet) over the last year but what I really like is that one of the directors recently bought 3.5 million shares at 13.38 back in Dec. 2004. They also have recently been approved for several of their generic drugs by the FDA and recently received approval for their version of Wellbutrin and today received approval for their version of Dantrium, whatever that is. Also today they launched their version of Oxy-Contin. Also have a number of generic versions in the pipeline. Been alot of buzz about them being a possible takeover target. Teva Pharmaceuticals could be a possible suitor. This issue was a 26 stock awhile back. Big play in the AH today. Up about 1 point.
Plum which I had from 4.89 and was up about .40 on 4000 shares took a drop over the last couple of days, no bad news or anything that I can see, but has fallen to about 4.78 today an I had a bad feeling that the shorts were on top of it. The chart was looking great up until Tuesday so I bailed today and will keep a close eye on it for re-entry at a cheaper price than my original entry. Still love the stock. Exited at 4.82 for a .08 loss after being up .40. I hate that. Figure I'll catch it cheaper on the rebound but just going to watch it for the time being.
Rdwr is another one that I have been watching and like alot. Check the chart out on this double bottom over the last 8 to 9 days. A short time frame for that but the daily looks pretty good to. It's been consolidating some of it's recent gains the last couple of days an if it breaks resistance at 26 tomorrow, which I think it will, I'm in.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer, I looked at RDWR, PLUM and IPXL.

Of the 3 stocks, I like RDWR the best due to the fact that it has shown recent revenue growth and its chart looks like it wants to go higher. For me to buy it, I would have to see more consecutive quarters of non-negative earnings. But that's just me, a big chicken.

The other two stocks don't have the earnings track record I usually look for but again that does not mean that the stocks won't go higher.

Your explanations of why you like these companies sound very reasonable to me and I'm the first to say that there is more than one way to make money.

Good luck and keep those ideas coming!

[skiracer]

I bought Rdwr today at 25.99. I know I posted late yesterday that I was going to wait for it to break 26 but 25.99 was close enough to 26 for me. It actually opened at 25.99. I almost sold it when it was up around 27.35 or so but decided to hold on an it reversed to drop back to 25.56 at the close. I'm holding 1000 shares an my logic is any bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. You really never know what these stocks are going to do, only what you think you see in their charts. I held onto Plum for almost 3 weeks, which is long for me, or so an was up .40 on 4000 shares an, which is 1600 dollars gain, while waiting for the break up instead it folds an I end up selling off at 4.82 for a .07 cent loss or 280 plus the commissions instead of taking the 1600 while I had it in my hands. Does that make sense? I really don't know if it is better to hold on when the chart looks great or to take the profits when you have them in hand. It still mystifies me how they take one step forward and two back and we keep hanging in there. I've evolved to the point where I can only speak for myself and what I do. Anymore I find it troubling holding on while other larger forces manipulate the movement of stocks and smaller retail investors like ourselves get swept along in their tide. My feelings are getting much stronger in that if the positions aren't making you money then it's not worth being in them. When I first enter a position I will not set a physical stop until the position shows a gain of at least 1/2 point which makes it at least profitable if the market makers stop me out. I set them close an if I get stopped out then I take the gain an if it starts to go back up I'll jump back in. It's that simple. Of course if you have a daytime job and can't watch them all day then you can't do that. I'd just as soon exit an enter several times in an uptrend, which is more work but that is what this is all about, as to end up having a gain and then seeing it drop to end up taking a loss of some percentage. There are a number of things that will constitute a buy signal for me aside from a great chart pattern which I thought was quite evident in Rdwr's chart over the last two weeks. I'm finding that breaking news is becoming a much larger influence in what drives a stock over the shorter term than earnings to some degree, but I'm not saying that earnings aren't a significant factor an a great earnings report is also good news. I've been into Ipxl now on this last trade for almost two weeks or so from 17. I've traded it several times over the last 2 months and took gains and some losses on those trades but to look at the stocks earnings and chart neither one of them impress me but the fact that one of their insiders buys 3.5 million shares at 13.38 gets my attention. Would anyone in their right mind spend 40 million dollars if they didn't know or have an edge into what they thought was going to happen. He's up 16.63 million on those shares right now and the stocks earnings aren't showing anything.
I'm a firm believer in the technical analysis side of all of this and spend alot of time studying it and scanning charts for the good looking ones that show promise. I also believe in the fundamental side of it and that if the fundamentals are there and strong then the chances of a winner are enhanced. Over the last 7 or 8 years I thought I had evolved into a pretty strict technically based short term swing/momentum trading discipline but the one thing that I see now happenning with myself is that everything I do is changing as I see the markets and the players in the markets changing. The one thing that I find myself doing more now than ever is keeping an open mind to everything that I hear, see, and read that I may apply it to my own ever evolving strategys. So I set a couple of close stops today on Ipxl and Rdwr to lock in those gains from today an if I do get stopped out Monday it won't be at a loss and if they start back up an hour or so later I'll jump back in. By the way just to set the record straight and not to be hypocritical, although I have been somewhat critical of your record in the past on that other place, I have bought and made money on several of your picks but never disclosed that info until now. I also appreciate the place an opportunity to carry on and rant like this an it doesn't cost a penny. Can you beat that?

[Runner]

Skiracer, awesome explanation. Since I’m getting into my busy season I have been having some success with Bracket orders. This allows me to buy, set my stop and target price all in one order. I also follow a tight stop, and I’ve been shaken out many of times but too me protecting that capital is key… You sure sound as if you have a well defined plan…..

Runner

[skiracer]

At this point in time for me protecting my capital is the number one priorty and taking a profit on the position to build a larger capital base is second only to honoring your exit strategy to stop the bleeding at a set %point. Every day brings new opportunities as sure as things in motion change.

[B.J]

Good stuff, Ski! Love your posts on the other site as well.

I've had my share of bouts with seeing profits deteriorate lately. Frustrating to say the least. I've developed a strategy that, when I take a full position ($15-20K) I will sell half of it when I get a solid double digit gain (20% preferably). If it's looking strong, I'm going to let it ride until the chart starts to look bad. If it's looking not so strong, I just bag the entire proceeds for the next.

$$MM$$'s way ain't too bad either. Take the 15% and run before some bad news hits.

[skiracer]

Thanks for the compliment. For a pretty long period of time I subscribed to an outfit called Morpheus Trading Group. It's run by a guy named Deron Wagner who is a swing trader and is pretty good at what he does. He felt the same way as you do in respect to taking something off the table to protect the initial investment and to let the rest run with a trailing stop to protect the remaining position. I never saw him lose money, in hundreds of trades, on a trade once he had a gain by letting it go in the hope that it would recoup. He always set a stop of some nature an always took something off the table once he had it. His feelings were that it was hard enough to find winners and that once he exited a position that was it an except for reviewing his winning and losing trades to better understand what went on he let them go and moved on. He would always say that everyday brought on fresh opportunities and lived for those fresh setups the next day. He never let a stock go past his preset loss point so he never lost more than say 7/8 % if it went down from his initial entry. I would see him exit a trade in the morning on a stop out and re-enter in the PM if it started to move back up. Two things he embedded in my strategys were honoring the specific loss point and never, which I still have some trouble with after all these years, let your profits go after you have them. The most important thing is that just having a plan or strategy for yourself that you feel comfortable with that you follow rather than just going with the tide sets you apart from the herd mentallity. Of course that doesn't gurarantee that you'll make profits but I think that it eventually will lead to them over the long run. One thing that I have found that I like in Mr. M's technique is that he follows his own strategy, believes in what he is doing, and stays his course, which is unique amongst all the people that do invest in stocks. I have to respect anyone that is playing it that way regardless of whether they're making bongo bucks or not.

[skiracer]

I've been looking at Amtd for the last week and a half. Almost took a position when it was around 10.80 but was anxious about the markets in general an since they rely on trading in the markets I held off until I got some better vibes on the markets and the stocks direction in general. This past week the stock has begun to trend up, I'm going to try to upload a chart which I'm not positive will work or not, after dropping from the 14+ range around the beginning of the year when that January correction and pullback occurred. My feelings are that the stock is a major player in this sector and will recoup it's losses back to the 14 range if the markets cooperate. I'm looking to enter tomorrow morning 1/2 hr. after the open after I get a better feel for which way the wind is going to blow. My target is 13/14 range an I won't be setting any stops until I get at least 1/2 point gain to around 11.80 or so. My 7% loss point would be at 10.51 but I don't think I would let it go that far if it starts to drop and would exit at around 11 even. Alot depends on the markets with this trade but I feel there is plenty of room for gain and little risk with the position with these numbers. Before I try to upload the chart I wanted to mention a couple of things. The Morpheus Trading Group website (Morpheustradinggroup.com) is full of great free stuff and you can access Deron Wagner's daily ETF report in the archives section. You would be getting the ETF report and his sector plays a day late but it's worth it for a number of reasons and even though a day later there is still plenty of time to take a position in those plays if after viewing those charts you still feel there is room for gain which usually there is. It's definitely worth taking a look at and very educational regarding ETF's and his take on the hot sectors. There is also a free weekly email you can sign up for that gives his take on the markets in general for the past week and the coming week. It's a good thing. Here is another site where you can get a free subscription to SFO magazine which is full of great info and articles on all of this stuff we are doing.
http://65.118.251.61:81/CT00033501MjQ2NjEA.html. Here goes with the chart upload.

[skiracer]

Ah sweet success. Thanks Spikefader for leading me to those two programs an in the general direction of how to do this.

[skiracer]

Just a quick update on what's going on with these three stocks. I'm still holding all three positions.
Ipxl closed today at 19.02. That up 2.02 points from my entry. I was under the impression that they were supposed to report earnings today but still haven't heard or seen anything on that. The stock was up .77 today on much higher volume than average which is a good sign. I set a stop once I had a 1/2 point gain in the trade and now have adjusted the stop at 18.75 which insures me of a 1.75 gain. In the meantime I'm letting it run until I get stopped out as I will keep adjusting the stops if it continues to trend up. I think that 20/21 isn't unreasonable over the near term.
Rdwr closed today at 26.50. That up .51 from my entry at 25.99. I still haven't set a stop with this trade yet but if it continues to move up tomorrow morning I may set a stop at around 26.40 or so. I've been seeing some very encouraging news releases regarding heightened demand for their products which is good but the daily chart is what I like the most. Since the beginning of the year it has been forming a decent looking double bottom base an is just about ready to finish the right side of that formation an form a handle. We might see a nice breakout from this point in the near term. Check it's daily chart out. I'm a bit anxious about setting a stop to close with this one just because it might start forming that handle and consolidate a little bit an I don't want to lose this one by getting stopped out to early. I really feel this stock has alot of juice and could go to 30 easily.
Amtd has dropped .22 below my entry of 11.34. I'm giving it some room to breathe for the rest of this week as I feel it is just consolidating some of it's recent gains and shaking some people out although on the daily chart the A/D and OBV lines aren't looking that good. This one could go either way but I have seen some big volume plays in the after hours on it over the last few days an institutional holdings have increased. This one really needs the markets to trend up to help it out. I like it alot but will exit if it goes to and breaks 11. I'm looking at a couple of new ones which I'll post on soon.

[mrmarket]

Good stuff skiracer. You definitely deserve your own topic on here. How about "Skiracer's Slopes"?

[billyjoe]

skiracer,

I also like the chart on rdwr. In the past year or so a purchase at your point seems to work better than waiting for the handle at least it's worked that way for me. Do you put any weight on the group number? That would worry me a little , but as with any stock lately , you could go to the crapper and when you get back find that your stock has also taken a dump.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Komg on the long side this morning at the open. Feel confident it will open above yesterday's close of 21.95 Ostk short if it doesn't open below 50. Already down 2.50 in the pre-market.

[skiracer]

This has been a strange day. I picked up some news on Komg early on Briefing.com and liked it at 21.95/22 range. Also caught some news on Ostk and loved the short play for it today. Anyway I procrastinated about both and didn't do anything in the pre-market which I could kick myself for but when you're indecisive you're better off not doing anything. When that feeling in my gut is there I never have any problem in pulling the trigger on a trade. It's when I'm indecisive I usually get hurt. Exited Amtd at 11.01 as I posted last night. Got stopped out of Ipxl at 18.75 an it dropped to 18.17 on news that Biovail was initiating a suit against it over Ipxl's generic version of it's Wellbutrin 100 tablets. I don't believe there's anything to the suit but it was enough to get the price below my stop. I can't complain about the 1.75 gain on the 1000 shares an almost re-entered at the low of the day because I feel the stock is still going to go over 20/21 near term but held off an now it's back up to 18.80 range.
Rdwr is doing exactly as I expected and wanted it to do. It's dropping on lower volume as it starts to form that handle off the double bottom and shakes out some holders. I'm in at 25.99 an if it goes below 26.20 I'm going to buy another 1000 shares which would average me out at 26.10 range. I hope someone picked up on Ostk for the short. It was a beautiful play off the news about their finiancial internals. Spikefader had a nice article yesterday or the day before on patience and not chasing these stocks if you miss your desired entry. I couldn't agree more with everything he said. The best part is that tomorrow there will be a few more just like those that will present themselves so there is never any reason to press entry only set your stops, honor them, and stop the bleeding when an if it happens. It never fails to amaze me how things change over the course of a few hours. Komg is now down around 22.26. What goes around comes around to those that are patient. I like the stock for a swing an it looks like I may still get a chance at it but since I've already missed it once now I'm going to wait it out until nearer the close to see if I can't get it closer to what I wanted in the first place. Take a look at the daily on Komg. Nice looking chart. The news this morning was that Zacks had put it on their #1 ranked list and that demand for their products was very high an earnings and guidance were up substantially. One last point. John Murphy, Stockcharts main analyst, feels that the dollars lack of strength and decline, rising oil and commodity prices are going to cause long term rates to go higher which isn't going to be good for REITs or home builders or the stock markets in general. I would agree with him on these points and would exercise caution in selecting your trades, their length, and what side of the fence your on over the shorter to intermediate term. This market today is showing just how volitaile it can be with the big swing range between the am, midday, and pm. I personally feel that I wouldn't be looking at anything over the longer duration either long or short.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer... Try to use paragraphs and it'll be easier to read in this format.

you write great stuff and I don't want anyone with poor eyesight (like me) to miss out.

[skiracer]

So I'm out of Amtd at 11.01. Out of Ipxl at 18.75. Still holding Rdwr from 25.99 and bought another 1000 shares late today at 26.12 which puts me at 26.07 for the 2000 shares.

I missed out on both the long play on Komg and the short play on Ostk. A few times during the day I almost pulled the trigger on both of them but felt out of sync like I was chasing them because I missed them at my first entry choice. What's done is done and tomorrow is another day with other opportunities coming.

Stockcharts John Murphy has been saying for awhile now that the two things that lead to market tops are the declining dollar and rising commodities. Both of those two facts have been in play for some time now and eventually they will lead to rising long term interest rates. As long term rates rise interest sensitive stocks such as Reits and financial stocks will be the first to feel the brunt of their rising. Today we got a good taste of that. We could be coming into a market peak and to an end of the 5th wave of the 5th wave of the most recent cyclical bull market which started in October 2002 and really gained momentum starting in March of 2003.

The strange thing about today was that almost every sector across the board took the hit as the market fell back mid afternoon after looking like they might recoup the mornings big downside. To me this represented lack of strength and conviction on the part of the bulls as shown by losses in energy, basic materials, and commodities, which are usually the strongest sectors at the end of market tops, along with everything else. Even stranger the tech sector which hasn't been showing any real strength or helping out at all showed some mild strength today in light of the big drop.

There will be opportunities as there always are if you search for them either long or short. After today's action the MO should be approach with caution and trade what you see and not what you think. I also feel that over the short term now the short side just might be the easier side to play for the time being.

[IIC]

I agree...the paragraphs are easier to read...good stuff

[MEA_1956]

Whats a para graph? I canot find it in the glossary. AEM

[skiracer]

Mea,
MM means to break down the separate thoughts into separate units (paragraphs) as you end one unit of thought and begin a new one. Looking at the last two posts you'll see the difference, if you're not pulling our legs with this. Anyway he is right about separating the thoughts. It is much easier to read. No problemo complying.

[Websman]

Mea,
MM means to break down the separate thoughts into separate units (paragraphs) as you end one unit of thought and begin a new one. Looking at the last two posts you'll see the difference, if you're not pulling our legs with this. Anyway he is right about separating the thoughts. It is much easier to read. No problemo complying.
Trust me. Mea is Not pulling our legs. He can barely spell his own name...but he's a genious when it comes to stock picking!

[skiracer]

I still agree with John Murphy of Stockcharts.com that were in deeper crap than we realize because of the oil and energy in general scenario. Also that we are near the end of the 5th wave up an a market top from the signals the markets are giving but I came to trade and that's what I do but with more caution in times like these. Given the chance the markets will make a liar an a fool out of you every chance you give them. So the basic operating premise is not to give them the opportunities to do that to you.

Only holding one position right now. Rdwr closed down .01 today at 26.19. What I really like about todays action is that it is making a classic handle formation off the double bottom. Dropping a little on lower volume. Todays volume was 75,631 as opposed to it's daily average of 200,000. I'm expecting it to stay rangebound in this area for a few more days, Wed./Thurs., of next week and then begin a move up. A huge breakout would be nice but I'll take a consistent trend up to a target range of 29/30.

I'm still watching Komg for a possible entry if it pulls back to the 22/22.10 range. My initial desired entry was around 21.95 to 22 an I really like the stock but want it at where I want it at so I'll play the waiting game an if it goes off an I don't get it then se le vie. Did I spell that right Webs? It opened today at 26.15 and the high was 26.34 and the low was 25.70. I missed it today at 25.70 because I was out of the office all day an didn't get a chance to watch the screen at all today. But I liked the fact that it recouped from the low of the day to close .01 off where it closed yesterday.

Webs I read your last post about having all this money lying around an no stocks that suit your liking. This one's for you Webs. Htrn is the largest provider of Urological services, mainly for kidney stones, and has 183 Lithotripsy units in 47 states across the country. Urologists use their lithotripters to send shock waves to break up kidney stones into very small sand like particles so that the patient may pass the particles thru the urinary tract. They also provide a few other services which are in demand. One being a mobile truck units that provide cardiac labs or CT scanners for the military. The company's market cap is 355 million and the mobile unit by itself is worth in the neighborhood of 105/120 mil. It opened today at 10.35 and the high was at 11.10 and the low was 10.33. It closed today at 10.73 an I just noticed that it got a small play for 4400 shares in the afterhours at 11.07. It has been trending up for the last few weeks an I have included a daily and weekly chart for you to look at. I'm in on this one first thing in the am in the pre-market anywhere between 10.73 and 11 and would take 3000 shares if I can get them in that range.

I'll have to get the charts to you a little later as I tried and the file needs to be compressed a bit more. Have to see if I can do that.

[skiracer]

Here we go.

[skiracer]

Now I have to learn how to write some things on these charts, save them with the notes, and then upload them. I'm working on it. Being able to do this is almost like hitting a double for me. Spikefader you just don't know how much I'm enjoying Snagit and Advanced Jpeg compression programs.

[Websman]

Thanks for the writeup on HTRN Skiracer! I'll do some DD on it.

[MEA_1956]

Your vote of confidence thrills me. ===> M.E.A.

[Websman]

Your vote of confidence thrills me. ===> M.E.A.

Domt meshun it MEA. Im jest glad that yu no how to tak a joke.

I shudnt talk. My speling leafs a lot to be dezired.

Webz...

[skiracer]

My threads alway bring out the best in people. Actually I wish we all could just spell things the way we think we hear them sound and not have to think about grammatical correctness. Then no one would know who's smarter.

[skiracer]

I was a little anxious to make sure I got Htrn today because I missed Komg and the short on Ostk the other day so this morning I didn't adhere to my rule of waiting, not written in stone, until at least 10 am before taking a position to make sure any gaps up or down hold before entering a trade. I've been saying to approach with caution in these markets and that given the chance this market will make a liar or a fool out of you but only a fool doesn't listen to his own advice so I guess if the shoe fits then I should wear it.

I felt so secure in this issue that I threw caution to the wind and took 3000 shares at 10.80 and was as happy as a pig wallowing in mud at my good fortune of getting it before it crossed 11. It never reached 11 and 10.91 was as high as it got before turning down and down and down to around 10.19. If I had waited just a few minutes more I would have watched it go down and caught it much lower an instead of being down .30 on the 3000 shares (-$900) I could have been +.30 or so. Big difference in being patient for a few minutes an honoring your disciplines. Still stupid after all these years.

The market didn't help matters so I can't blame the stock or anything being the matter or changing with it overnight since yesterday's close. Another big reason to approach with caution. My target is still in the 12/13 range on this trade over the short term but we still need some help from the markets. I consider it a sign of strength when a stock takes a considerable drop on higher volume in the morning and then reverses to recoup a good portion of it's drop by the close. Having done this today I feel that much better about trade but still should have waited to have gotten it much cheaper.

Rdwr is still forming that handle and small drop today on even lighter volume, 54,316 shares traded today, which is exactly what I would like to see it do other than if it were to breakout for a 2 point gain. Check out the 15 min. chart to see the Bolinger bands really starting to tighten up.

Komg is down below 22 to close at 21.96. I like this stock even though it hasn't been able to hold on to it's gains over the last couple of days. I have to attribute that to the markets and not the stock. But that's still no cigar if you had bought it at 22.50 or higher. It's daily and weekly charts still look great an I will take a position in the early part of this coming week if we get some show of strength in the markets.

Ostk has fallen down and can't get back up. What a short to miss out on. This stock has dropped almost 7 points since I mentioned it earlier this week. Another 1.83 today. I'm really glad this week is over with. Speaking for myself I need a couple of days away from all of it.

If we get some help from the markets this coming week Htrn will be a great play and watch for Rdwr to come out of that handle.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer...good thread. Try to use ALL CAPS when you reference the tickers for your stocks(e.g. use HTM instead of Htm), then they will be more easily visible in your analysis and readers can immediately check out the stocks that also interest them.

[skiracer]

No problemo por favor.

[skiracer]

Here are a few images of a weekly report I get from Morpheus Trading Group. It's their weekly sector ETF report an is quite informative especially if you dabble in trading ETF's. Otherwise the way the sectors are trending can also give you a good look at where the strengths lie.

I had to upload it in 5 parts so each section as numbered follows the previous one to see the complete report. Just realized there is a 6th part but couldn't be included in this post because of limit of 5 attachments per post so see next post please.

[skiracer]

Here's the 6th part. Is there a way of getting this whole report into one copy and post? If anyone knows please clue me into it. Thanks.

[skiracer]

Not sure what I did there. Anyone know?

[skiracer]

Got stopped out of IPXL yesterday at 17.50 for a .50 gain. To much BS going on with the stock regarding earnings reporting and a couple of lawsuits. It's down farther today and I'll be looking for a re-entry point somewhere after the markets regain some assemblence of strength and IPXL gets a few things straightened out. The cheaper the better at this point.

Bailed on RDWR this morning at 25.45. Still like the stock but the market is weak with no backbone right now and I wanted to stop it before it gets worse. Looking to re-enter at a much cheaper price when it finds a bottom. Was in at an average of 26.07 on the 2000 shares so it becomes a .67 loss on the 2000 shares. The market is killing everything today. Always remember that todays leaders and strong stocks will be the first to rebound if and when that takes place but right now it's in the crapper and cash is probably the best avenue to be on.

KOMG has consolidated a bit from it's recent highs and will be presenting a great opportunity for entry now once it too finds a bottom.

I'm still in the position on HTRN. It's showing nice strength in light of the market today an right now is up a few cents on the day.

















Here's what Murphy's got to say today.

[skiracer]

Zack's highlighted KOMG as one of the stocks on the highly rated #1 list. The company has just raised guidance another .08 again today over their latest guidance of 1 month ago. Today's pullback was part of the big market drop today an is presenting us with a big opportunity here for another chance of entry at a lower price. The markets and stocks are nearing an oversold condition and there will be a pop of some sorts soon as a result of that oversold condition. The stronger stocks will be the first to regain their consolidations on that first pop. Check out this chart. Just be sure of how the markets will be trending that day as this stock will definitely be regaining any lost ground and will be a great setup for a day or swing trade of a few days. 24/25 range is plausible over the short term.

[Runner]

http://img209.exs.cx/img209/480/komg9bd.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

I'm glad it has consolidated some and will be watching it closely for an entry today as low as I can get it. Would love to see it drop down to the 21.50 area. Be patient if you're considering a play in anything at the present. Who knows what this market has in mind right now. Glad you liked the pick. Has great fundamentals right now also.

[Runner]

Caution is a wise thing in this current market. Remember many get caught in a bounce off the opening bell, but the bear likes to pull the rug out as the day moves on… Currently this market is at a major fork in the road and I’m still favoring day trading at this time.. Remember we don’t need to trade every day.

http://img236.exs.cx/img236/747/komg7yf.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://img43.exs.cx/img43/4150/komg9dl.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

http://i156.exs.cx/img156/2638/komg7kf.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Was looking for a further drop in Komg to under 22 in the am but it surprised me an opened a bit higher than the previous days close. Once it started to move up I took a position at 22.25 and thought it looked like it wanted to go off but the markets are holding almost everything back and it never really took off. Nice gain though to close at 22.86. I'm going to watch it this morning an maybe set a stop around 22.60 to insure some profits. I hate Fridays because most of the momo and swing guys usually take any profits out over the weekend an it makes it hard to sustain your gains. That's why I'm going to keep a short rein on KOMG today an if it drops below 22.60/.65 range I'm going to take the profits and re-enter on Monday.

Still holding HTRN. They are supposed to report April 3 an I believe from what I've been reading they are coming in above guidance. It's been trading in a narrow range between 10.30 and 10.75 over the last week or so. It seems to drop to around 10.40 in the am and then recoup back to the 10.70/.75 range near the close. I like the stock an it has been holding up close to my 10.80 entry point. 10.04 is my 7% point an immediate exit if it goes that way.

I think the markets are getting close to being a little oversold and we could get a bounce here shortly. I'm looking to the SMH for a quick swing trade on a bounce in the tech sector which has been in the crapper of late. Probably won't come today because of the weekend but Monday or Tuesday of next week looks good. Can only trade what you see and not what you think.

[skiracer]

There's a good possibility that we might get a positive bounce this coming week. Here's a chart of the S&P 500 (SPDR) which lends a little support to that.

I get stopped out of IPXL an it goes up .75 the next day. I still like the stock because of the number of generic drug apps. in it's pipeline, that large insider buy of 3.5 million shares, an drugs and medical issues are always going to be in demand with an aging society. Maybe I should have been in it for the long term instead of a short term play. What's good about all of this is that with the online brokerage you can get in an out in a matter of seconds if you wish and can re-enter any position if you see a momentum change. I'll be keeping a close eye on it and it remains on my watchlist of prospective plays for either a day or swing trade.

KOMG is a prime example of what these stocks will do regardless of their fundamental strengths. Drop one day and take off the next. That's why I feel that you have to be extremely flexible in your strategys and ready to go in any direction if you feel the indicators are in place for that direction. I'll be setting a stop on Monday at 23 which will guarantee a gain of .80 on my 1000 shares. This is how I play it an sometimes I think it is a matter of luck on getting stopped out or not and participating in a bigger move up or down. I live with my decisions and strategys an you can always re-enter if you feel the setup is still strong and merits it.

Here are a few other that I have been watching and waiting to setup.
ADBE - I missed this one after their earnings realease but they all usually consolidate and pullback some after that initial breakout. It has exhibited huge strength on the earnings report an should become one of the leaders if the markets turn up some. I'm waiting for it to pullback to the 65.50/66 range for a long side swing trade.
JBL - Another breakout Friday on hugh volume. Any consolidation near 27 would be a good entry for the long side swing trade.

AAPL - I keep waiting for it to breakdown an I still feel it will. I would short it on the next lower low below 41/41.50 range.

AMTD - If the markets turn up with a short term bounce this coming week AMTD could be a nice day or short term swing trade setup. It looks like it is forming a little double bottom but the right side bottom hasn't really bottomed out yet. It the right side can get below the left side low there is a distinct possibility it would turn and move back up the right side of the double bottom. It would be a nice entry to catch it for a move from 10.25/10.50 range to 11.50/12 area. There are a few variables which have to fall into place but it's worth watching.

RDWR - This stock has disappointed me in that it turned out to be a losing trade for me. -.67 on the position on my exit the other day and then it turns and goes back up .29 to close above my exit price. I still like the stock to do as I felt it would and come out of the handle of the double bottom it has been forming on lower volume days. The problem with these lower volume stocks is that it doesn't take much to move them one direction or another. MSN Money has a stock rating of 10 on RDWR. I'm keeping a close watch on it this week and would take a position if the markets give us a bounce an it follows the bounce. My opinion is that the good ones and leaders always tend to gravitate back to their recent highs and higher if nothing has changed with their fundamentals.

I have to mention this in respect to how I trade and play this game. I'm in to making money, gains, whatever you want to call it and to stopping my losses as early as I can. I have my own specifics on these an along with those specifics are my gut feelings which ofter override the specific ones prompting me to exit a position before it reaches a specific loss point of 7% which is mine. Sometimes this causes me to lose some profits as these fickle instruments we are dealing with turn back up on you.

Preserving capital and making gains are my two priorities. The next single most important part of my strategy are detachment or emotional detachment. Once the position is over that's it except for review and learning from looking back at the trade. My feelings are that there are going to be a continuing flow of setup an opportunities coming with each new day and being ready and flexible to operate within those parameters is my prime objective aside from profit, good money management, and capital preservation.

[Runner]

Skiracer, very interesting thread you have here. Your strategy makes sense to me. Flexibility is important to help stay on the right side of the trade along with proper money management. Since the market is doing so awesome my expectancy levels have decreased. I’ll look for stocks that have been oscillating between the 20-80 lines on the sto. I like to see this occur about 2 times and then I’ll buy the 3rd. Once it pops back down under 80 I’m gone. I have not yet flipped the stock and shorted it back to the 20 line, but I’ve noticed how this would have proven successful on stocks running this range, also not to mention the profit increase. In this kind of market I’ve learned greed can cause your profits to evaporate quickly. I feel as long as I sell into strength I’ll be fine with even a .50-.75 gain… Even on these pop and drops I’ll set a stop at break even just incase.

[skiracer]

Runner,
Recently I've become more interested in holding onto the gains and keeping the money into productive positions to the point that a 1/2 or 3/4 point gain bothers the hell out of me if I have it in hand and then watch the stock drop and the gain with it. Flexibility and the ability to get in an out with the rising and falling tides are more the norm with me lately. As I said if I set a close stop and get stopped out with a smaller net gain but at least hold onto a good portion of it then I would rather do that over an over and build a larger capital base that way for the time being under these market conditions.

You mentioned taking the gain and immediately taking a short position in the same stock if it has turned down. I've done that on occassions when I'm in the office an at the screens all day. It's really no trouble at all with an online brokerage as it takes only seconds to do it an, I haven't done this yet, but with Options Express you can preprogram a set of trades where one event triggers another. It can get complicated but is feasible if your broker handles those type of transactions.

I wanted to mention that I also use the fast and slow stockastic indicators on a daily basis. They are a good signal indicator for intraday setups. I think that being methodical and less greedy is a great attribute to making money in trading. There is no reason that with all the opportunities that present themselves any individual couldn't keep doing it over an over again and protecting their capital at the same time as long as they keep their focus on what they are doing an how they want to do it. Interesting dialogue. Good luck.

[skiracer]

Here's a brief update on the two positions I am presently holding and a few stocks that I am looking at an would enter if they consoldiate some to meet my target entry points.

HTRN: Made a decent move yesterday of .40 on twice normal volume. Hopefully it's starting to wake up. Earnings report coming on 4/3. Up on larger volume is always nicer than just up although I never kick being up out of bed even on lower volume. Nice day Wed. for HTRN in a crappy market.

KOMG: Set a stop at 23 on Tuesday am an immediately got stopped out right after the open. The markets are ruining most long plays and KOMG is on that list. I'm still high on the stock and if it drops anywhere below the 22.25 range I'll be looking to enter it again as cheap as I can get it. No change fundamentally with the stock. .75 gain on the trade. If it gets to my target entry today I'll do it again.

ADBE: These last two days will provide a great opportunity to take a position in ADBE on some consolidation of it's recent gains. Another crappy day an if it gets back under 65 or lower an I would take a postion at the cheapest point I can get once it crosses back under 65.

JBL: What a beautiful daily chart. Nice example of cup and handle on lower volume and then the breakout. Consolidatings some of the breakout gain due mostly to the market yesterday but that is to our advantage. Anywhere under 27.50 to 26 range would provide an excellent entry point. Keeping a close eye on it to catch it the lower the better.

AAPL: Yesterday's drop in the market shouldn't be taken as evidence that AAPL is going down further. I'm looking to short it but need further convincing evidence that it is just not following the market down. I would like to see it continue yesterday's slide and continue down through 42.50/42 range to get the downside momentum flowing. About a week ago it looked like it was weakening and wanted to fall but some
weak support came in for a few days and now with a weak market it wouldn't take much to shakeout last weeks money and continue the slide down. I think it could go to 40 or lower.

RDWR: The problem with these low volume stocks is that it doesn't take much to move them down on low volume. Take a look at the daily chart of RDWR and you'll see a decent double bottom with a handle formed off of lower volume. Not a classic example but decent. The market hasn't helped this stock but I still have confidence in it and am keeping a close eye on it for a strong move up after this recent consolidation. Two indicators that I like are the A/D and OBV lines. Both slopes are still definitely tracking up which is a good sign money is still coming into the stock moreso than leaving. I'm keeping it on my watchlist and would re-enter at the first signs of it reversing upward.

I'm looking at a few other possible setups which I'll post later today. Trade what you see, not what you think.

[skiracer]

Just thought I would post this chart on HTRN as I feel it is a good opportunity and setup for some appreciable gains over the next week or so. You'll have to make your own assumptions about what to do with it.
Check out the A/D and OBV lines.

[mrmarket]

Skiracer, this is such a good thread that I've asked Karel to make it a permanent staple on here..get ready for "Skiracer's stock slopes"

[Karel]

Done, as per $$$Mr.Market$$$'s suggestion. Skiracer, feel free to suggest a better title, alliterations preferred!

Regards,

Karel

[ninner]

yes this is a good thread....everyone can learn alot from skiracer!!

[skiracer]

If I can continue to just be myself and rant as I have been over the last few weeks then I'll just continue along the same path.
The name you've selected for the thread suits me fine. I just hope it's not going to be indicative of the way my trades turn out. I appreciate the thought of your doing this an I will try my best to keep it coming in the same fashion. Thanks.

[mrmarket]

skiracer...slopes go up. They do in this forum, anyway. Keep it coming.

[RL]

Glad to see you hope you will contribute to this site rather than bad mouthing It like the other day. On the IBD site I go by HITMLONG and had Invited Steve to take a look at us felt he would be great to have on board, but you and others began to shoot this site down. If nothing good to say say nothing.
Hope you will continue to post here and bring us winners GOOD LUCK.

[skiracer]

It seems of late that as much as I love trading and searching for stock setups when Friday comes I'm happy that the week is over. I don't know about the rest of you but I spend alot of time at this and then watching the screens most of the day becomes somewhat tiring. By the end of the week, even on up weeks, I need a rest from it. I guess I'm saying that I'm glad the markets are closed today an am looking forward to a long holiday weekend.

I had a decent week. Got stopped out of KOMG on Monday for about a .75 gain. Any gain is better that a loss in my book even when it isn't what you expected from the trade. HTRN is doing exactly what I expected it to do and doing it in a basically volitaile and crappy market. Have to be happy with the trade. Up .96 from my entry of 10.80.

Yesterday I was looking for a bounce of some sort from a pretty good oversold condition. So was everyone else an it looked good early on but the market stayed rangebound for the most part and into the close lost any steam it had going for itself. I call it the weekend bailout. Almost every swing and short term momo player takes what they have on the table an goes home for the weekend. With things the way they are throughout the world you never know what you're going to come back to on Monday. That's one reason why I very seldom take any new positions on Fridays.

Anyway here's a chart on the SPY and some thoughts about it to contemplate for over the long weekend. I think that next week is going to be a decent week with a decent bounce but not anywhere near a rally of sorts. Have a great and safe weekend over the Easter holiday everyone. Next week I'll have a couple of new picks that I've been watching which I'll post here on Sunday night. Trade what you see and not what you think.

[skiracer]

Aside from the one position I am now holding in HTRN, there are several stocks that I have on my primary watchlist. These are the ones which I like enough to take a position in if they hit my target entry prices.
I've included a chart on each one an a basic explanation of my feelings. The SOX and SMH both showed some strength at the end of the week on Thursday. My feelings are that we will get a bounce this week and that the tech sector will rebound somewhat and lead that bounce. Of course never make the trade until the confirmation of the move on the chart has taken place, never on what you think is going to happen because usually it never happens. That's why a plan, targetted entry and exit prices, are so important, especially if your going to do this on a swing trade type of strategy.

There are 7 of them on my list. Five are in the tech sector and two in the consumer staples sector although Avon Products could be placed in the cosmetics sector. Except for AVON all are long side trades with AVON being on the short side. In order of preference they are:
1. KOMG
2. ADBE
3. JBL
4. JCOM
5. NTAP
6. YUM
7. AVP

[skiracer]

I have to apoligize for the way I've written over the charts in my last post. Most of them aren't quite legible. I'm still experimenting with the whole process although I am making progress with it.

I've noticed that there isn't any thread or posting on anyone trading ETF's, holders, or iShares. It's something that I have had a good deal of success with over the last couple of years. The sector ETF's are great in that they allow you to play an entire sector or the basket of stocks that make up that sector as a whole instead of individual stocks in that sector or both.

Here's a portion of a weekly report I get for free from an outfit called Morpheus Trading Group. They run a hedge fund and aside from stocks trade ETF's regularly. It's a great way to open and widen your trading activities across a much broader scope. There are ETF's for sectors, countries, commodities etc. so it's a pretty varied and large area to trade within. Here's the portion of the article. It ties in with what my feelings are on what's going on with the tech sector (SOX & SMH).

[Runner]

A few that I keep on eye on BBH HHH OIH PPH RTH SMH SWH
I’m thinking short-term bounce may be setting up in retail (RTH). I’m also keeping my eye on semi’s (SMH)

[skiracer]

I started trading them a couple of years ago. I find them much easier to catch trends with than regular stocks an I'm usually always in one or two of them depending on which sectors are strong at the time. They are much easier to figure in my opinion. I'm watching SMH very closely right now an think that it is cheap and ready to bounce along with the tech sector this coming week.

That's another reason I subscribe to Stockchart's John Murphy's message alerts. He always is on top of which sectors are strengthening and weakening and the rotation in an out of them as the market cycles. As an example, I found it much easier to trade the OIH as energy strengthened rather than to try and catch individual energy stocks. I still would catch individual setups in energy related stocks but the sector ETF's are easier overall in my opinion. It's strange that they aren't used by that many smaller retail investors when they are as easy to track as they are. The more common market tracking ones, QQQQ, DIA, SPY are traded pretty heavily but I find that I don't use them as much as the individual sectors themselves. Good to see you use them.

[Runner]

RTH (retail) gave an expected bounce GPS HD WMT
SWH showing a little power in the afternoon

[Runner]

I’m watching some of these ETF’s to determine money flow and then tier 1 stocks for trading. I’ll keep these until the end of April.

This will be my huge list:
SMH (Semi’s)
RTN (Retail)
SWH (Software)
PPH (Pharmaceutical)
BBH (Biotech)
OIH (Oil)
HHH (Internet)

Stocks:
KLAC NVLS AMAT INTC
GPS MIK WMT HD
MSFT PSFT VRTS INTU ERTS ORCL
MRK BMY PFE
AMGN DNA
XOM CVX
EBAY YHOO AMZN

Most of these will be scalping trades using tech indicators for entry and exit points. . May also trade some of the ETF’s as well.

[skiracer]

I had set a stop on HTRN at 11.50 yesterday at the open. To be honest I was surprised that it took such a dive over the course of the day. Anyway I'm out of it for the time being. They report on April 3 an I'll have to wait to see what the next couple of days will bring.
Glad I wasn't holding any of the stocks in my portfolio of the week picks. Kind of got killed yesterday. The OIH etf looked great in the pre-market and was down over 1 point early on but what a reversal and also up big today. What a pick that was.
KOMG took a big hit yesterday on no news. I like the stock and bought 4000 shares this morning between 21.06 and 21.30 which is a larger position than my normal money management rules dictate but I really feel that this particular pullback is presenting a great opportunity to enter at a bargain price.
I'll be keeping a real close eye on this one just in case it goes the other way. I would be happy just to see it recoup to the 22 range where it started before it's recent runup. It reports earnings on April 27 and has raised guidance several times over the past couple of months.

[skiracer]

Exited KOMG between 21.15 and 21 for a small loss and wipes out any gain I had in HTRN. I'm all in cash at the moment. This week isn't turning out as I thought it would. I feel like I was beginning to try and force the issue which is the worst thing you can do. Is it me or does the market feel strange right now. Some real wide swings in prices intraday on the indices today. Might just be to volitaile to try and work within it.

[skiracer]

JCOM: I've fallen an I can't get up. We live in volitaile times when just the thought of something happening in the future can do this to a stock and the people who have positions in it. Strictly conjecture and yet devestating consequences. Fallen over 6+ points in less than 45 minutes or so. This type of crap is criminal and JCOM should have some type of recourse towards those that started it.

I don't own it but it was on my short list so I could have. Having a bad enough week already but this kind of thing makes me want to get my soapbox out.

[Websman]

JCOM: I've fallen an I can't get up. We live in volitaile times when just the thought of something happening in the future can do this to a stock and the people who have positions in it. Strictly conjecture and yet devestating consequences. Fallen over 6+ points in less than 45 minutes or so. This type of crap is criminal and JCOM should have some type of recourse towards those that started it.

Kinda makes me want to start trading commodities. What's the difference between a Pork Bellies contract and a volatile stock?
Of course, with the Pork Belly contract you CAN lose more than your intitial investment. That would really suck... Oh well, never mind. I'll stick with stocks.

[skiracer]

You never know with these markets and what's going on inside their heads. Yesterday was a reaffirmation of that for me. I'm in 100% cash right now and not to say that I'm not looking but I'm not going to press the issue either. Here are a few charts which are indicative of just how things are going. Not much good to say about any of them. I'm going to have to do them in 3 posts.

[skiracer]

Here is the 2nd one.

[skiracer]

And the 3rd.

[skiracer]

And the last. Like Spikefader said. Watchout this could get ugly. I also want to re-iterate that there is no risk in being in cash. It's completely safe and no reason to press the issue when the markets are acting and giving off the signals they have been this week. The charts don't lie. I've been wrong on plenty of occassions but am completely out of sync this week. Of course I can only speak for myself but just to chancy for me right now in either direction.

[skiracer]

Never fails to amaze me an always does this just when you go to cash and set your mind to sitting and watching for a few days. I wouldn't let myself fall into any traps and today's action could be one of them.
Aside from my anxious caution on any side right now I still like all of the same stocks that I have listed above but am sitting out the markets until next week except for a play in HTRN if it goes off. They're reporting on 4/03 and I would take a play there if I felt it were going off
Thursday or Friday. But I really hate to take anything on Friday for over the weekend.
Advancers outpaced decliners 2.9 to 1 but new lows continued to exceed new highs.
Tomorrow is the end of Q1 and the jobs report comes out Friday. So tomorrow could be one of those days where the uptrend could continue to follow thru with no pertinent news or reports to deal with.
I was looking at the QQQQ's as a possible short setup for this morning because after yesterday the daily chart on them looked great for a continuation of the current trend down but they opened up and never looked back. Another reason I like to wait until after the first half hour after the open before making any trades or taking any positions. Just to see if any moves or gaps up or down continue to hold. Another example of doing just the opposite of what they appear to look like on the chart.
JBL, JCOM, KOMG, ADBE all were good intraday trades and somewhat cheap after yesterdays drops. I watched them this morning before I had to leave the office and kept to my self-imposed sabatical until next week. I still think KOMG is real cheap and JCOM should never have lost that much ground on rumor about something that probably won't happen. Briefing.com had an explanation from the CEO about the rumor and the truth of the matter. JCOM is a fundamentally strong stock the has a large share of their market. They aren't going to go away or out of business and it could be years before the congress makes up it's mind about what it wants to do about the future funding of USF. Apparently there are 4 different proposals in front of congress. This drop could be a windfall if the stock moves back up to Wednesday's highs before the drop. It was a leader before the rumor hit and it's my belief it will return to those highs. Trade what you see and not what you think.

[skiracer]

Here's the article on JCOM from Briefing.com. As you'll see from reading the article that there is no reason for this drop other than mass hysteria and panic selling. Over the next few days this could present a great opportunity. Worth keeping an eye on for any further strong moves up.

[Runner]

Keying off 60 min charts looking to see if the following set up on the short side:
HHH PPH SMH SWH Also looking at the Nasdaq100 to see how it acts off R2

Focus stocks are YHOO AMAT short off R2. I have not traded any of these as I fine-tune a new system. In fact I’ll need more time to back test.

[skiracer]

I just feel that the markets are showing no clear sign of what they which way they want to go. I'm staying on the sidelines the rest of this week while it plays out.
This could be a dangerous time to be trying out new strategys in such a volitaile market. Personally speaking I have no idea which way it's going to track today but my feelings are that it will be down further by the close Friday. I'm keeping my eye on only one stock, HTRN, between now and Friday for a potential entry. Yesterday presented a great opportunity to grab it at the days low of 10.32 but I'm a little skitzy an didn't make the play. It ended up closing at 10.92 which would have been a nice intraday play. Good luck with the new system. Would like to hear what it is when you're ready to disclose that info.

[Runner]

Market signals are mixed and this period can get a lot of investors in trouble. I still only favor day trading and have been in this mode for some time now. I’m using smaller time frames and also shorter time for holding a position. I’m looking short term and basic set ups are off the 60,13,3 minute charts. For scalp plays I’ll also trigger off the 1-minute chart.

I’ll post results after move back testing has been done. My goal is rather simple in nature, but we shall see. I plan to ride the basic trend on the long side as well as short. If I’m long a stock and my indicators turn down I’ll flip it and go short. This may possibly also hedge a position. I’m mainly looking at STO and moving averages @ support of resistance.

Once conditions change I’ll adjust the time frames and look more at daily and weekly charts, but for now short term charting might be the way to go if one wants to play these current conditions..

[skiracer]

This was a rough week for me especially. Ended up taking a position in HTRN almost at the close today at 11. They report on Monday an I'm expecting an above guidance report.
Here's Stockchart's John Murphy's take on the markets. I had to do it in 4 parts.

[skiracer]

Here is part 2.

[skiracer]

And here is part 3.

[skiracer]

I'm not happy with the sizing. Still working on it. Very hard to read.

[skiracer]

I'm posting a section of a current chart of a stock I like. I was curious as to what different views on what the direction of the stock might be over the next week. The stock is HTRN just to be honest. I already have taken a position on Friday which I normally wouldn't do on a Friday but they are reporting on 4/04 an I wanted to get in ahead of that reporting.

From the channels I have drawn what would your synopsis of the next possible direction of the stock. This is a daily chart and goes from Friday's closing at 11 back 6 months or so.

[Runner]

Sorry wrong thread

[Runner]

I like the chart on HTRN I see short signal possibly failed off the 10.33 swing low. Monday may give better confirmation signal for direction, but 10.33-market structure low (MSL) is in tact. Also it appears to me that the Bears may be getting nervous off Friday’s price action. It does however need more volume to shake some shorts out.

[skiracer]

I'm prejudiced because of holding the position from Friday but I felt basically the same way you do about the stock. It held up well under the circumstances on Friday.

I like the S&P 500 and the SPY for tracking the markets over the DIA. Of course the Nasdaq can't be ignored for it's presence of technology stocks but the S&P is better suited and weighted with a more well rounded sorting of stocks than the DIA in my opinion. Most of the people I follow use it over the DOW.

I'm still waiting for some type of indication as to which way these markets want to track. So I'm still in cash except for one position in HTRN. Here are two charts of the SPY from last week. We're at a point where it could go either way but I'm seeing stronger signals that it will drop even farther to match last years lows rather than reverse and start a new trend up. Not a great time to be entering anything either long or short but I would be leaning towards the short side right now. It seems that direction would be easier if you had to trade something. Excersising control over that feeling is the best road right now.

Any breakthrough to lower lows will only reinforce the exiting of positions and the panic and hysterical selling that accompanies breaking of a 200 ma by a major indice. It that happens to the SPY or S&P 500 there are going to be plenty of short opportunities of current leaders where there is no underlying strength basically in the sectors or markets themselves.

[Runner]

I see a warning light flashing on HTRN. Looks to me as if it put in a structure high. Buying energy has been lacking. Seems that many charts I’ve been looking at have been doing the famous pop and drop. I’m in cash at the moment.

[skiracer]

I thought this morning was going to produce the breakout I was looking for. Had to leave the office early for a jobsite meeting and missed the open and never set a stop because it wasn't that far above my entry. I checked in with my broker around 10:30 am and it was around 11.90 or so. I had a bunch of things on my mind and never thought to set the stop. I wish I had of set a stop because I would have taken a good .5 point gain or more and got back in almost at my initial entry after the stop out. I'd like to think that it was profit taking on the momo and swing players because this is the 2nd time it has failed to hold this level. I'll hold it for the time being.

I thought they were supposed to report earnings on 4/03 but I was wrong and they won't be reporting until the end of the month.

[skiracer]

The SPY still hasn't been able to break through that downtrend line an until it does were in a horizontal range mode. Very choppy environment and probable better to sit it out in cash over trying to press any issues. Still not clear whether it's better on the long or short side yet.

I'm hearing whispering of a bigger drop in oil (OIH) which could be setting up for a short but in trying the play last week was a little early to the party. If oil does pull back then the airlines could be a good sector for a long play. I like Jet Blue (JBLU) which was up .86 today. Another stock which I have been watching is SRNA. Took a hit today but I'm looking at it as a decent opportunity to get into a position. Fundamentally very strong and can't figure what happened today with the big gap down. It had been trading in a horizontal line for days within tight bollinger bands an I was expecting a bounce but not in this direction and not as much as it did today.

[skiracer]

Looking for a rebound in SRNA today after yesterday's pullback. This one is worth keeping an eye on. Anywhere in that 21.50 range.

[Runner]

SRNA noted registration low n30 @ 21.05. Must have had some news or earnings.

[Runner]

http://img201.exs.cx/img201/4478/srna1li.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Here's a good example of Fibonnaci numbers at work citing resistance levels on the SPY. They always seem to work an using them to figure support and resistance levels will give a good idea of where a trend could be going or how high or low.

Very little working right now an it seems better and safer to wait it out for awhile. Last weeks leaders will be the stronger ones out of the gate if we do get a trend up
but I can't figure what it wants to do. The SPY needs to break through a few lines of resistance on some decent volume to show some signs of strength but it just can't seem to muster up whatever it takes to do that.

[Runner]

SRNA violated the reference low, Short trigger today!

[skiracer]

Did anything change as far as uploading charts etc. to this forum? I tried earlier to upload a couple of things and the uploads failed for a few reasons which I don't really understand. Yesterday everything was fine but after the maintenance work they did I'm having problems with the uploads. Anyone else having problems?

[Runner]

Skiracer, good call on HTRN!

[skiracer]

Runner,
Thanks. Still all on paper and nothing in the pocket yet. This one got a nice review on Briefing.com's news thing today an I tried to upload it to here but the upload failed. I didn't do anything different. Did anything change? Are you experiencing any problems with any of your uploads?

[Runner]

Skiracer, I’ve only posted one chart on this forum today and had no problems, everything worked as usual.

[skiracer]

On Monday I placed a stop at 11.75, just to insure my gains, on HTRN an sure as shit it drops to 11.71 and stops me out. Then reverses to close at 11.90 range where it has been bouncing around for the rest of the week.
A fellow I know uses this general rule for day and short swing trading. Whenever you see a strong bullish reversal day off a low that doesn't follow through with it's upside momentum within the first hour in the next session, that's usually a sign of weakness opening the door for a test of the prior days low. We needed some kind of follow through day after Tuesday's mini burst up after the Fed report, but what we got was -105 points on Wednesday an another -125 today on huge volume. Personally I consider that a strong signal that something is going on or coming up. Are we oversold? Perhaps we should consider that we were way to high to start with.
It sure looks as if there are some cheapo issues out there right now but then I thought that last week about a few I was looking at.
I'll be keeping my trading to a minimum for the time being while keeping an eye out for decent setups. Like the guy from Missouri said, "you'll have to show me".

[skiracer]

I need some help with this Image Shack site and uploading images from there to here. I went there and registered and tried to use the site to upload to here but without any success. I was able to copy the image to their site but couldn't get it over to here. Could someone please outline in simple steps what I have to do to get the images here.
After I get the image there where do I plug in the address they give to get it here? Appreciate any help with this. Probably something very simple but this isn't my strongest area. Thanks.

[skiracer]

I need some help in understanding how to get an image from Image Shack to here. Would appreciate anyone who knows how to do it to explain it to me. Can't seem to get it right on my own.

[skiracer]

Try this again.

[Runner]

Skiracer, I’ll try to help

1. save your pic to your hard drive.
2. Open Imageshack and clic on Browse

3. Select your picture and click host it

then copy and paste link
http://img213.echo.cx/img213/7717/ttttt6sh.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
Appreciate the hand. I've gotten to the point that you've illustrated but don't know how to paste it into my thread.
Once I start a reply and hit manage attachments then the upload window comes up for the attachment. How do I paste the URL from Image Shack into that box to upload. I've tried it several times and no cigar. What I've been doing is once I've uploaded to Image Shack I click on the box for forums 1 hotlink and hit CTRL + C. Then I right click and the popup box has paste in it. I left click on paste and then go to my reply on MM's site and right click on in the browse box and click paste. The URL address comes up in the box an I hit upload but it doesn't upload. I think I'm close to it but I must be doing something wrong. Hope this clearifies where I'm at in the process. Thanks for the help.

[Runner]

http://img168.echo.cx/img168/4034/bbbb5jr.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Thttp://img12.echo.cx/img12/5873/wagner0ie.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)ry this again.

[skiracer]

Runner,
Thanks for the help. I got it over here but the sample image was a compressed one that I used from the old way. I'll try a different new image. Thanks again.

[Runner]

Now it needs to be a little larger. Try the thumbnail link
http://img168.echo.cx/img168/5120/jm1eb.th.png (http://img168.echo.cx/my.php?image=jm1eb.png)

[skiracer]

http://img177.echo.cx/img177/4663/wagner28bb.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
Runner,
I guess I have it now except for a few fine tunings and to learn how to use the full capabilities of the Image Shack site. I wanted to bring this commentary over to the forum. It's from a pretty astute trader and fund manager that I subscribe to for ETF's. Thanks again Runner.

[Runner]

Now, ya got it!!!

[Runner]

I’ve never herd of Morpheus Trading Group before, but I agree with his comments on the current market conditions. I think a small bounce might be coming, but this may be where people sell out current positions. I’m thinking about staying on the sidelines during first rally attempt.

[Runner]

I should also mention many will short the next rally attempt!!

[skiracer]

Runner,
Take a look at this site, www.morpheustradinggroup.com. It's run by a guy named Deron Wagner. I know you're interested in ETF's and he puts out a daily letter, the Wagner Daily, that deals with just ETF's and his trading in them. You can subscribe for $49.00 per month or get them for free by going to the site and going into the archives to get them the next day. The site is full of good stuff and the reports are great for keeping up on what sectors, ETF's are ascending or descending. Just that much more ammo in your arsenal for free. I've been a subscriber for a couple of years an have done real well following his selections plus what I have learned from his insight. Definitely worth your time to take a look at the site.

[Runner]

Skiracer, I’ll check out the site, sounds interesting!

[skiracer]

Took a position in CMTL this am at 29.95/30 range. Sold off this pm at 31.25. Barchart.com in their opinion section of their menu has the stock rated as an average hold which isn't exactly spectacular. Decided to take the bird in the hand on the big gain today although that last graveyard candle on the daily could imply that a bullish reversal of the recent downtrend could be in the wind. Personally I don't think the markets are going to bust out to the upside and today was more like a big tug of war between the bulls and bears on some pretty heavy volume. I must say that it did give me a pretty good scare on the big run up and then the drop back to give back half of the gains before moving back up over 31.
Still not back into HTRN. Big tug of war going on there also. Had a chance at 11.70, the low of the day, but procrastrinated to long and missed the opportunity. I got stopped out at 11.71 last Monday and want back in at the price or lower. Thought it was going to do that for me today but stopped right at 11.70 as a low today and closed at 11.93. It is showing decent strength in this market and has been trading in the range of 11.90 to 11.95 for a few days now. They report on 4/28.
I've included an image of Barchart.com's opinion section on CMTL. It's a great site and offers alot of good technical statistics.

http://img156.echo.cx/img156/1194/barchart4pq.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Skiracer, you have a bunch of awesome web sites don’t you? I checked out Morpheus site and it is pretty cool. About the only site I’m on is stockcharts and yhoo. I found out that sometimes to much info would mess up my head.

I still favor sideline action or Day trades at this time. Expecting a bounce, but I’m a thinking the selling may not be over. Just need more direction. Like you stated looking at the charts it was a tug of war between the BULLS and the BEARS>>>

[skiracer]

Runner,
At Morpheus you can get a 1 month free trial to the Wagner Daily. It's his daily ETF report. He's a pretty sharp guy and swing trades the ETF's on a regular basis. It would be very educational and wouldn't cost you anything. I would be willing to bet that you would more than pay for the $49 subscription price, after the first month free trial, by just following a few of his ETF trades. Anyway I'm glad you took a look at his website. I hope you will look into the free trial. It would be very educational.
I wanted to thank you again for the info on getting me straight on the image shack site. It's much easier and simpler to use that the other ones that I was using to upload images although I like them to but this is much simpler and no compression variables to contend with.

[skiracer]

http://img243.echo.cx/img243/3807/barchart24mv.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Still not back in this yet but it's showing something but on low volume. My opinion is that it's earnings report on 4/28 is going to be pretty much above any guidance. These things get volitaile just before earnings and this is typical for it to show some gain on lower volume and then to pullback just before earnings only to breakout right after a good report. I'm back in on any pullback to the 11.75 range. It's one of the few issues that have held their own over the last 3 weeks in a crappy choppy market. Been under some institutional accumulation of late and I'm looking for it to go to 16/18 range in the intermediate term after earnings. Just my opinion but it has held it own. Thought today was going to go off but glad it didn't yet. Still some indecisiveness on retail investors. Barcharts.com likes the stock.

[skiracer]

http://img227.echo.cx/img227/7149/spy1ee.http://img143.exs.cx/img143/3449/stocks3khttp://img143.exs.cx/img143/5913/stocks21wo.jpgh.jpgjpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

HTRN has been pretty awesome. I did not trade this one, but been following it. Think short-term target of reference low will hit at open. Had I bot I’d trim some at my first target range.

http://img217.echo.cx/img217/8196/htrn8mh.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

I'm a little pissed off for letting myself get stopped out last week at 11.71. Initially I never set a stop until I get a decent gain going and then bring the stop up to what I feel is a safe range to protect my gains yet not to close to get stopped out. I knew at the time that the stock was swinging within a wide range intraday but was consistently closing back or above it's opening price of the day. I just got a little to protectionist an a little to close to it's swing range an got stopped out.
I still haven't gotten back into the stock yet and while waiting for it to pullback closer to the area where I got stopped out I may have missed the opportunity.
They are always somewhat volitaile just before reporting earnings an usually consolidate to a degree just before reporting. That's what I'm waiting for at the moment. It may not happen but if it gets any kind of a pullback from here to the 12/12.25 range I will re-enter. Something in my gut tells me that that may not happen because it has been holding it's own during the recent choppy market.
If you look at and follow channels you'll see that it is approaching the upper line of it's channel suggesting it could be due for a pullback. Friday's are always a good day for that after a couple of days of advancing.
I never tout or advise anyone to buy a stock but the proof is always in the pudding and to be honest I think this one is just beginning a pretty good run. I've had it twice from 10.75 or so and from 11 and got stopped out both times around 11.70/11.80 range so the stock doesn't owe me a think but still pisses me off that I got stopped out.
Keep an eye on it for a pullback in the next couple of days. It reports on 4/28.

[Websman]

It pissed me off when I was foolish enough to by LU, based on Jim Cramer recommending it...Jim sucks.

[Runner]

http://img201.exs.cx/img201/4478/srna1li.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

Follow up on SRNA
http://img259.echo.cx/img259/3083/srna7dv.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
SRNA was another stock that fit one of the patterns that I look for in certain markets and situations. This one didn't go the way I thought it would. So much for that but I didn't make the play anyway because of the way I've felt about the markets right now.
But I am keeping an eye on this one for the time being.

What is really on my mind of late is the current state of the markets. Pretty volitaile and very dangerous under these conditions. Wide swings like the last couple of days only lead me to believe it is safer to stay out of the water for the time being. No clear signals and really can't tell which way the markets or individual stocks want to go.
CMTL a prime example of what I'm talking about. Up 1.25 points on Thursday only to give it all back and more on Friday. Hard to trade those circumstances unless your able to sit at the computer screen all day watching your trades. Was wondering how anyone else felt about all of this?

[Runner]

Skiracer, I’m in cash and will remain this way until I get a better sense of what is happening. The whipping around is crazy. I’ll let the big dogs battle it out and go with the flow. I had a good indication that Friday was going to get slapped back. I’m sure many make a bundle on the short side Friday. I view this markets risk level right now as high. That means to me that cash is King!!

[skiracer]

I agree with you that cash is king and a safe harbor at the moment. I'm really waiting for a pullback of some sort in HTRN for an entry there this week before they report earnings. I might be pissing in the wind though. Briefing.com, who I rely on for a number of things, has a column called the Technical Take, which explains the technical side of what going on daily and weekly. These two charts are pretty good for giving you an idea of the main indices and their tracking stocks support and resistance levels. Just thought I would show them here for last week and this coming week.

http://img163.exs.cx/img163/3629/supportresistance29eu.jpg

http://img163.exs.cx/img163/3240/supres18eb.jpg

[skiracer]

I took a free 90 day subscription to this magazine about 1 1/2 yrs. ago. The name of the magazine is Stocks -Futures - Options.
It's got alot of great stuff in it and they are offering a free 1 yr. online subscription now so I thought I would put it up here.
After my 3 mo. trial ran out I kept up the subscription at $49.95 per yr. Now they are offering it online for a year for free so I took them up on it because sometimes it is easier reading and perusing through it online. Excellent articles on everything we are doing and worth taking a look at. They give the link in the capture.

http://img258.echo.cx/img258/6926/sfo5oe.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

You really should take a look at the SFO magazine. Lots of great educational stuff for traders of all disciplines.
Here is todays look at the markets by Briefing.com's Swing Trader. http://img202.exs.cx/img202/1006/swg13od.jpg

http://img202.exs.cx/img202/2171/swg25jt.jpg

http://img202.exs.cx/img202/7487/swg30bf.jpg

This guy provides me with alot of leads to research and consider plus since he is of the swing trader mentallity his take on the markets falls right in place with mine usually. His view right now is a small bounce up for the next couple of days or so, as I pointed out in what I posted yesterday about the b wave in the abc correction we are currently in. You never know what might transpire but look at what took place today although on lower volume again. More later.

[Runner]

Skiracer, what is your take on HTRN’s action last week?

[skiracer]

Runner,
I had an interesting week last week with HTRN. As I've posted previous to this I was stopped out at 11.71. Was waiting for it to reverse an pullback before earnings as they usually do for a re-entry point as close to 11.71 as I could but it never happenned for me. I didn't listen to my own preachings an on Tuesday afternoon I felt it was prepping to go an I took a full position at 12.75. It closed at 12.65 that day. Wed. it closed at 12.60. Thursday it reported after the close and was an uneventful day except right at the close it fell to 12.20. The earnings report used the word strong instead of record earnings and the report could have been misconstrued as below guidance but they have been clearing up a merger and the earnings had to be proportioned accordingly. They really did pretty good and increased their line of credit 3 fold and reduced debt big time over this last qtr. Anyway on Friday it opened at 11.95 and dropped to a low of 10.75. I was watching it all day and didn't have a stop in place just because I was planning on being in my office all day and watching the action.
I came real close to getting out an it did drop way below my 7% rule but I had a feeling the report was being taken the wrong way. I had the same thing happen with IPS an it went on to double after their report. I bought another 1000 shares at 11.00 and sold them that aftenoon at 12.25 and 12.30. Still holding the original position.
I like the stock an it is just beginning to come out of the merger and to benefit from what it will bring so I'm sitting on those shares for the time being. I like the stock to go to 16 or so over the short term. The one thing I really like is the show of strength in rebounding from 10.75 to 12.40 on almost triple the average volume. That's got to be indicative of some accumulation by the big money picking up shares cheap at the end of the afternoon. All the indicatiors that I look at are up on the daily and weekly charts.

[skiracer]

Briefing.com's daily sector watch report for today. Interesting stuff in that it gives you the best moving sectors. The ones that are moving are the ones to be looking in for setups. Not saying that you won't find them elsewhere but the chances are better in the ones that are moving.
http://img102.exs.cx/img102/4751/sectr10hz.jpg
http://img102.exs.cx/img102/356/sectr20ij.jpg

[Websman]

Skiracer, this is some good stuff you're posting. I hope you plan on hanging around here a while. I'm learning a great deal from you.

Thanks for everything!

[skiracer]

Had a pretty interesting week this week. At one time or another entered positions in all of my selections in the portfolio of the week game. So I had a decent week in general. Only holding one position as of end of trading today. HTRN is doing well and although we always want gains faster and larger sometimes the slower and steady gains are how they come and you can't complain about that. Here is a chart on how I see it shaping up for HTRN. I still feel that this area is a good point for entry as my target expectations over the intermediate term are for the 16/17 range. It has been banging up against 13 several times over the last few days and usually the more times a stock tests it's resistance the better the chances is will break through that resistance. Thought today was going to be that day but looks like the momo guys took their gains out right at the end today to keep it from breaking through 13.
http://img239.echo.cx/img239/2936/htrn1wh.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I got my target in place on HTRN @ 13.10. Nice find with this one SKI!!

[skiracer]

http://img154.echo.cx/img154/8302/swgtr6of.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img135.echo.cx/img135/3899/techtk11rw.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
http://img135.echo.cx/img135/5742/techtk25kn.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
http://img135.echo.cx/img135/699/techtk34gi.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
http://img135.echo.cx/img135/3288/techtk40xo.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
http://img135.echo.cx/img135/5956/techtk53va.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

At a point where a number of lines of resistance waiting for all indices to break through to confirm any rally or continuation of recent uptrend. Could be a little overbought right now so next week we could expect some consolidation or adjustment to these recent gains.
The jobs report today was a big surprise an a help in the total picture. I'm expecting a continuation of the uptrend after we digest some of these recent gains. Feeling more comfortable looking for long setups but not taking anything for granted from this recent uptrend. Jack be nimble, jack be quick, an you won't burn your ass on that candlestick.
Remember trade what you see and not what you think.

[Runner]

http://img177.echo.cx/img177/8306/htrn25sw.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
Not clear what you're saying here. Is this a 3rd wave in a set of 5 in an uptrend? Are you expecting a continuation of the uptrend? Please clearify your meaning. Thanks.

[Runner]

Skiracer what do you think of these weekly chart targets on HTRN?

http://img177.echo.cx/img177/3109/htrn34xx.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Runner,
Not clear what you're saying here. Is this a 3rd wave in a set of 5 in an uptrend? Are you expecting a continuation of the uptrend? Please clearify your meaning. Thanks.

Ski, if I got this right I think the completion of wave 3 should end around 14.72 from the market structure low that begin the 1st wave up. Total 5-wave completion of the run should occur around 20.21. Remember this info I’m pulling from a weekly chart. As you know nothing is set in stone, also understand I’m in the beginning phase of Elliot wave. But to answer your question yes I believe HTRN is in a 3rd wave up.

I think I posted a daily target on this stock a few weeks ago with a target of 13.01. Seems it was on the money. I’ll wait until that area has been taken with some power and jump back on board.

[skiracer]

Runner,
I would take that analysis and be happy with the trade if it goes that way. I also feel this is the 3rd wave of the recent uptrend. I hope things go the way we feel about the chart and waves. Thanks.

[skiracer]

http://img260.echo.cx/img260/8625/sect16yg.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)http://img60.echo.cx/img60/6341/sect20sa.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

The chart on the left are the best and worst performing sectors for Friday. All this comes from Briefing.com. As far as current news an everything else they offer for $24.95 for their Platimum subscription I don't see how the serious trader can do without this service. Not to offend anyone who is serious about their trading and doesn't subscribe to their service because I'm sure you can do well without it.

[ninner]

i think if you are serious about investing or trading....ibd and their tools are the way to go....the best there is ..hands down!!!

[skiracer]

I was more implying what they supply as far as up to the minute breaking news throughout the day, their reports, etc... not a discipline or strategy to trade by. I subscribed for years to the paper and was a participant on the forum for three years running. I wouldn't knock the canslim discipline nor the paper but it doesn't work for me. The paper is way behind what's going on and the forum, well I left it outright, enough said.

As far as being serious about trading I think that the process called trading has evolved, because of realtime technology and greed, into something that requires being up to the minute on all breaking news coming off the wires and a substantial base of info regarding stock info, daily reports on the markets and their conditions, and what is driving them. Briefing.com gives me all of that and more minute by minute throughout the day without any particular self-serving interests or extra bullshit to sift through. Not to much happens throughout the day that gets by me when I'm running my screens and have them up. But everyone should go with what works for best for them. Don't you think you might be better off equipped with that info on a daily basis if you were trading intraday or over the short term.

[ninner]

yah the forum is sometimes something to be desired but there are some good posters there...as well there are lots here too

cheers

[ninner]

ihave a question for ya....do you trade for a living....how hard is it to become profitable...and do you know any solid references

[skiracer]

I don't trade for a living. I work like a dog everyday either in the office or in the field banging nails and running a crew. Plus a real estate business my wife an I are in together. I spend way more time with the stocks than my wife would like me to and she's probably right but it's a release. I've been profitable for along time but my losing trades far outnumber my winning trades. You should develope and evolve into your own discipline which will be a blend of everything you absorb in trading and life.
Maybe you'll become profitable an always honor your strategys with some patience.

[skiracer]

http://img53.echo.cx/img53/7900/main7lw.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)http://img53.echo.cx/img53/1055/mainst5pg.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Here's one that I've been watching. I'm convinced that if it breaks above the resistance area at 3 it is clear sailing until 6 or so. Be sure to read the area on the right hand side of the chart. I don't know why it uploads like that but it gives a little info on the stock itself. An inexpensive little stock just ripening up for a decent gain.

[Runner]

thanks Ski another one to put on the radar screen..

[Runner]

Might MAIN be in a 3rd wave? Looking at a 5 year weekly

[skiracer]

http://img82.echo.cx/img82/4798/mainbarcht3fb.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Runner,
Explain what makes you think this could be a 3rd wave on the 5 yr. chart.
Barchart, who I always check for their opinion on a stock, an it changes everyday, rates this one pretty high at the present.

[Runner]

Ski, I’m away from my desk top and will post a chart latter. I can’t get my minor waves to match up right. Wow, Barcharts rates this stock very nicely. I’ve never used that site before. I normally try to drawl my own conclusions from what I see. I know at times my charts don’t make sense, but I’m careful about external noise. It is obvious that someone likes it based off the nice volume.

I don’t know how to do fundamental checks on a stock, but I do think MAIN is a stock with potential.

[skiracer]

Runner,
Barcharts is quite a good site for a number of things. You should check them out. Barcharts.com. You'll be impressed with what is available all for free. I use them alot for their scans etc.
I was just curious what you saw as the 3 rd wave up on that 5 year chart. Maybe when you get a chance just annotate your points for me. No big and no hurry.
I do like Main myself. I've been following it for a couple of weeks now and was going to mention it earlier but wasn't sure at the time that it was going to make the right side of it's cup the way it has. Now I'm getting ready for an entry this week if it breaks $3 which I feel it has a good chance of doing Monday morning.
What I really like about these low price issues is that you can really load up on them at these prices an a 1 point move is a substantial gain. A half a position entry for me would be about 4,000 shares so a half point or point move is nice and the total amount invested isn't that big of a deal. Of course I always keep them on a short leash and very seldom let them drop 7% without bailing. Can always re-enter.

[Runner]

Not sure on the count Ski! This is a 5yr chart of MAIN

http://img114.echo.cx/img114/1820/main3nq.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

That's a pretty long cycle but I see your points. I'm generally looking at a year back with the stocks. Sometimes with commodities an other futures I'll look back up to 3 years or so. IIC had it on his momo list this morning. I love those coincidences where two people unknowingly come up with the same stock. Reassuring to some degree. Thanks for the 5 yr. chart. Keep a close eye on Main on Monday morning. I will be.

[skiracer]

http://img10.echo.cx/img10/7311/swng1pn.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
http://img10.echo.cx/img10/1766/swng28nz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

http://img63.echo.cx/img63/9474/main0dd.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Bought it today at 2.85. Took a full position. See that last candle. Right at resistance and the 200 ma. It's a doji and signifying a struggle between bulls and bears as to which direction the stock wants to go. If it can break resistance at 3 it could be clear sailing for a point or so. A little higher volume today than average in a crappy market today. So it held it's own. That resistance at 3 is important to what is going to happen with this stock.

[Runner]

Hey Ski good luck with Main. I’ll let it prove to me that it wants to clear 3.00. It has been in a nice little uptrend from the 2.17 bottom.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I hope you're right about MAIN. It was the only pick in the portfolio contest up and with +27% volume , CKCM and FORD were the only 2 down with significant + volume.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billy Joe,
I hope so too. It looked pretty good for a cheap stock in todays market. Especially being up the few cents on increased volume.
I'd love to see it break through 3.

[billyjoe]

Skiracer,
I hope MAIN's dip is just a blip on the chart generally heading up.
You offered to help on the Portfolio of the Week thread. Could you possibly take over for the next 3 weeks starting next Monday ? You can do anything you want with it. If you can't that's ok too. It kind of runs itself. People have been submitting picks without my asking. Let me know what you think. Thanks.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

No problem. I can take it over for 3 weeks or so and I'll do the best that I can as far as daily reporting as well as you have. Just explain the particulars as far as how much money we start with etc.
It's pretty basic now with just one pick each week. We can change it to whatever we want to each week just to add a little spice to the mix. I'm open for suggestions but I guess it's dealers choice as far as the restrictions on the number of picks and how we play it during the week. I know everyone is honest so maybe we can add a couple of new twists to it as far as maybe getting a chance to exit or add positions once maybe midweek. Suggestions please for this coming week. I'm up pretty late each night doing paperwork and stock stuff anyway so it won't be any problem keeping track with alittle help from our friends.

[New-born baby]

Skiracer,
I hope MAIN's dip is just a blip on the chart generally heading up.
You offered to help on the Portfolio of the Week thread. Could you possibly take over for the next 3 weeks starting next Monday ? You can do anything you want with it. If you can't that's ok too. It kind of runs itself. People have been submitting picks without my asking. Let me know what you think. Thanks.

billyjoe

BillyJoe,

Have a great & profitable season and hurry back! And God bless you and yours!

[billyjoe]

Thanks Skiracer and New-Born,
We just start with $10,000 each divided equally among each stock in a person's portfolio. Price is the opening each Monday until closing Friday. No after hours trading on Friday. It seems that all activity ends about 4:03 by my quotes. You'll do a great job ski , probably put me out of a job. Have fun.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billy Joe,
I'll take it for 3/4 weeks but I hope I don't put you out of a job. We'll have fun with it.
Are you going away or just going to be working a heavy schedule?

[skiracer]

http://img192.echo.cx/img192/1056/techtk6qc.jpg (http://www.imaghttp://img172.echo.cx/img172/4254/swngtrdr7eq.jpg

What I don't understand is why the upload comes out the way it does one time and not the same the next time. Sometimes they stack right over one another an other times it's side by side. Is there a specific way to upload this images or is it left just to chance?

[billyjoe]

Skiracer,
I'll be working 7 days a week until at least July4th. After June 15th , the greenhouse business slows considerably and I recuperate.

billyjoe

[Websman]

Skiracer,
I'll be working 7 days a week until at least July4th. After June 15th , the greenhouse business slows considerably and I recuperate.

billyjoe

I take it the snow shoveling is over with.

[IIC]

Yeah...I was thinking about that too...but I just figured Billy lives in Nome AK or something

[billyjoe]

Webs and IIC,
Last snow melted about May 1st , but it is back in the 40's here for a day or so. Spring avatar arriving shortly.

billyjoe

[Runner]

Follow up on SRNA
http://img259.echo.cx/img259/3083/srna7dv.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img41.echo.cx/my.php?image=snra7rg.png

[Runner]

Notice the nice gap fill on SRNA!

http://img132.echo.cx/my.php?image=snra23og.png

[Runner]

http://img261.echo.cx/img261/339/srna9ku.png (http://www.imageshack.us)


SRNA>
18.01 still holding for now as a market structure low with long trigger @ 18.87

[Runner]

earning hurt, new low recorded.

[skiracer]

I never took a position in the stock but I got the lead on it from Briefing.com's swing trader market technician. I thought at the time that technically it looked decent but was waiting for confirmation of a move up which never came so I never entered. I have kept an eye on it because they all bottom out sooner or later and when they do start back up the right side of their base it's a great time to catch a swing. I think, not exactly sure, they just reported either in line or slightly above earning estimates and got slammed because they revised guidance lower on their net for next qtr. or year. I love them when they do that because after the initial slam is over with there is usually a nice bounce and by that time everyone has usually forgotten that they are a good company and basically fundamentally sound so guys like me are patiently waiting in the shadows for that to come around. SRNA is one of those good companies that is going through that in their life cycle right now. Be patient and keep watching. What goes around comes around to those who are patient an in control of their money an emotions.

[Runner]

Ski, ya still in MAIN?

[skiracer]

Runner,
Still holding MAIN from 2.86. Not a bad day today. I thought it was going to go off today but pulled back and ended at 3.12. Still can't complain. Up .26 on a decent position.

HTRN was a rollercoaster today. High of 13.30 and low of 12.56. Always a wide range during the intraday. I haven't been in the office much lately and haven't been watching the screen all day. But this stock always seems to drop alot and then recoup. It would be making for a great play intraday if you were there all day to catch the swings.
SNRA up .78 but was as high as 1.63 intraday. Did I hit that one on the nose. A great play intraday today but you had to be there. The momo players picking up on it.

[Runner]

SKI, great job with MAIN, I missed it today. Lo
http://img16.echo.cx/img16/4899/main7ew.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

My sloppy chart of $spX
http://img16.echo.cx/img16/8938/spx0rm.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
I can't take all the credit for MAIN. I got the lead from Zack's research an one of their scans. It was one of two stocks that turned up in one of their analysts scans. Turning out to be a good selection. I think todays action was the result of some breaking news regarding this:http://img266.echo.cx/img266/9859/main4gv.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

http://img262.echo.cx/img262/5605/swgtdr29bq.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img71.echo.cx/img71/1553/swgtdr9yu.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img262.echo.cx/img262/4072/stkswth8pq.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Can anyone explain to me why it does this horizontally across the page instead of vertically?

I see where Ninner and New-Born were posting on GOOG. I would be looking to short before looking long for two reasons. One is the market looks to be alittle overbought as per the article above and the stock looks like it could be at a point where it would be a good point to consolidate some of it's recent gains. NUE looks great as it is way below it's recent highs and there is plenty of room to move up.

[New-born baby]

I see where Ninner and New-Born were posting on GOOG. I would be looking to short before looking long for two reasons. One is the market looks to be alittle overbought as per the article above and the stock looks like it could be at a point where it would be a good point to consolidate some of it's recent gains. NUE looks great as it is way below it's recent highs and there is plenty of room to move up.

I am with you, Ski. And I love that article you posted today. Keep 'em coming.

[skiracer]

http://img90.echo.cx/img90/4562/hurc4oh.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Here's a prime example of trading the news. This issue was up over 4.75 points in the early pre-market on just this news release that came over the Briefing.com's newswire service. Nothing else just this snip of news. Do you think a few retail guys are going to get caught in a trap today after the run-up and the momo guys bail with their gains. I caught news at 8:11 am an it was already up 4.75 points. What time do these guys get started trading. I wish it was me.

[skiracer]

New-Born was posting that he thought it would be a good idea to have a thread about chart analysis and the discussion thereof. These charts are from Briefing.com's market technician whom the call the Swing Trader Column. He usually posts everyday about his take on the market and what stocks he thinks might be setting up for either short or long plays. Best of all is that he gives his explanation along with it in a chart with annotations. His examples are the real mc coy and are the corrrect definition of whatever examples he puts up. It's a great way to learn exactly what different patterns are an how they setup. I subscribe to the service so it is no problem for me to upload them here for anyone who wants to learn abit more about TA from a true market technician. Here are todays:http://img273.echo.cx/img273/6711/spy251qh.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img273.echo.cx/img273/7748/secwth29dk.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img273.echo.cx/img273/7535/secwth24er.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Ski,

Keep it coming! Thanks!

[skiracer]

Meant to upload this with those other charts but made a mistake an uploaded one set twice. Sorry. Also why the hell are they lining up horizontally? Anyone know the answer an how to change it or fix it?

http://img265.echo.cx/img265/3825/secwth31dr.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

I'm holding both of these. Main from 2.86 and PTMK from 8.87. Both up and doing ok so far. Barcharts opinions on they as of today. First PTMK and second MAIN.

http://img265.echo.cx/img265/5423/ptmk255lj.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img265.echo.cx/img265/4707/main254vp.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

TEST test test

[Runner]

I found out why SKI!

[Runner]

test test test

[skiracer]

Runner,
Are you going to keep it from us or share it. Just kidding. What is the reason an how do I get it back to the regular size? Please, I can't stand the having to scroll across the page.

[Runner]

http://img262.echo.cx/img262/9568/test0as.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

If you post the link to your images next to each other it will expand it, at least that was what happened during my test. Give it a try!!

[Runner]

Ski, I'm waiting!1loloo

[skiracer]

Runner,
I tried it both ways an it's still happening to my posts. Sometimes it does it and sometimes it doesn't. I thought I had turned some enlarging view on but I've looked at everything closely and don't see anything. I wonder if it has anything to do with Image Shack and their upload?

[Karel]

The interesting thing is that the previous page looked alright in Firefox, and messed up in Internet Explorer. While this suggests an obvious solution, it is perhaps more helpful to show how you can avoid it.

When you paste an image link, you get something between [ URL ] ... [ /URL ] codes. Take care to separate these blocks from the text and from each other by one white line, like
blahblahblah
blahblah...

kdfkdvhnlkfjbnddfbj (fvbxdjfvxddf)

fv3e6ghng8idenfungk (kyjfnhgkmnfujtgk)
That should teach 'em!

[skiracer]

Thanks Karel, I'll try that.

[skiracer]

Karel,
You are the BOMB. How did you rearrange them like that please?

[Karel]

skiracer,

like I said: put every [ URL ] ... [ /URL ] block you copy from Imageshack on its own line (it will wrap, of course), separated from whatever else by a blank line (that blank line really is just to be sure you have them on their own lines). Just try it yourself!

Regards,

Karel

[skiracer]

Just an update on a a couple of positions I'm still holding:

HTRN: entry 12.75 close Fri. 12.72 down .03 My target is still 15/16 range and still confident of hitting it.

MAIN: entry 2.86 close Fri. 3.50 up .64 most likely will set a stop on this one at 3.35 to insure .50 gain on the trade. Looks as if it could be near hitting top of it's channel and due for some consolidation of it's recent gains.

PTMK: entry 8.87 close Fri. 9.26 up .39 no stop assigned yet. I took a little more interest in this stock when Runner posted on it because I have a friend who works for Pathmark and runs their meat depts. in a few of their north Jersey stores. We're in the process of putting a 2nd and 3rd floor on their summer home in Ortley Beach, NJ at the present time so I see alot of him right now. He knows of my love for trading and has been talking about Pathmark and some of the things which are going on with it. Ahold, which is a large conglomerate of food store holdings throughout the world, has just taken some kind of interest in Pathmark an infused about 200 million in the company. Apparently they have some plan in mind for the company. Chart still looks pretty good aside from the above info.

[Runner]

http://img278.echo.cx/img278/4614/ptmk6ye.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

Ski, my chart reading on PTMK is that it needs to hold the trend line. I did not trade this one last week. I may see how it acts here and might get in for a swing.

[New-born baby]

Ski,

Nice cup with handle, but the triple top is the source of some concern.
The handle is forming nicely, and if market cooperates, should breakout to your targets. For readers, don't buy in until HTRN busts the $13 resistance line with some volume.

Here's the chart:http://img48.echo.cx/img48/8531/chart15jb.th.gif (http://img48.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart15jb.gif)

[skiracer]

I have to agree with you on the point about waiting until it breaks 13 on some strong volume. My commentary is never meant to tout or pump any of these stocks. I would also like to see it break 13 on strong volume and hold it for the day at least. It has broken 13 several times since I've owned it but never been able to hold the gain. That in itself bothers me somewhat. What I also don't like are the down days, weekly chart, on higher than average volume. The institutional support has been holding steady so all I can think is that some funds/institutions have been getting out while others have been buying in. The A/D line and OBV lines have both been trending up. The On Balance Volume line tracks the volume coming in or going out. When it's an up day the volume gets added in to the average an on down days gets subtracted from the average. Thus the line either slopes up or down. HTRN's line has been sloping steadily up for quite awhile now and that's good.
Anyone considering this stock for a play should definitely know that there is risk involved and should make their own decisions rather than relying on what others have to say about the stock. It never seems to pan out when you play it that way.

[skiracer]

Just an update on a a couple of positions I'm still holding:

HTRN: entry 12.75 close Fri. 12.72 down .03 My target is still 15/16 range and still confident of hitting it.

MAIN: entry 2.86 close Fri. 3.50 up .64 most likely will set a stop on this one at 3.35 to insure .50 gain on the trade. Looks as if it could be near hitting top of it's channel and due for some consolidation of it's recent gains.

PTMK: entry 8.87 close Fri. 9.26 up .39 no stop assigned yet. I took a little more interest in this stock when Runner posted on it because I have a friend who works for Pathmark and runs their meat depts. in a few of their north Jersey stores. We're in the process of putting a 2nd and 3rd floor on their summer home in Ortley Beach, NJ at the present time so I see alot of him right now. He knows of my love for trading and has been talking about Pathmark and some of the things which are going on with it. Ahold, which is a large conglomerate of food store holdings throughout the world, has just taken some kind of interest in Pathmark an infused about 200 million in the company. Apparently they have some plan in mind for the company. Chart still looks pretty good aside from the above info.

Sold PTMK today at 8.97. Didn't like the earnings report. .02 less than Reuters consensus. +.10 on the trade.

Sold Main today at 3.30. +.46 on the trade.

Disappointed with PTMK and the earnings report. Thought it would come in better or at least at even rather than the -.02.

Bought another 1000 shares of VTIV at 19.55. Now own 2000 shares of the stock averaged at 1000 @ 20.20 and another 1000 at 19.55. Averages down to 19.88 on the 2000 shares. Love this stock and have been in an out of it several times over the last 6 months with great success. Those last two candles today look promising. Still I'm down .22 on the 2000 shares.

Market looks good and if it stays strong over the short term this stock will be a major player in the Healthcare sector.

How about that CMTL. Great call on the overreaction and a terrible call on exiting the position instead of setting a close stop and seeing what happened. Wouldn't have cost anything and wouldn't have lost any money while still maintaining the position and chance of more gains which it did without me. Still don't know why I do the things I do after all these years. But still made great gains with the last two trades in this stock. Still a battle to control my moves an emotions.

HTRN is still range bound but there are several things going on with the play. Institutional ownership increased again this week. They know what's going on and where to put their money. Patience. My original mindset was to hold for a longer period than my normal time period. So that's what I'm doing. +.02.

http://img86.echo.cx/img86/5425/htrn3cp.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Still don't know why I do the things I do after all these years. But still made great gains with the last two trades in this stock. Still a battle to control my moves an emotions.

I don't guess we'd be human if we didn't have emotions, yet the market does a darn good job of preying upon our emotions. I like Spikes idea of having an automated computer program to do your trades for you.

[skiracer]

I'm a simple hunter and trapper from the Pine Barrens of NJ. Grew up in the woods around Lakehurst, NJ. Love the computer stuff but to old now to learn to accept or rely to much on those type of programs. Like to be able to pull the trigger myself. Wish I was about 20/30 years later than I was. Would have missed Vietnam and all the great weed but would have been much more into the electronic stuff. Hard to teach an old dog to many new tricks.

[Websman]

You know Ski, I'm 39 and grew up with computers and such, but there are times when I wish I would have been born in the 1800's when life was much simpler. I know science has made great advancements and we're living longer, but sometimes I wonder if it's worth it.

[skiracer]

;-) The atmosphere around where I grew up was like the 1800's almost. Everyone was into hunting, fishing, and trapping. Alot of the people in Lakehurst ate what they killed or caught. Hunting season, whether it was small game or deer season, was a serious matter and alot of the old-timers filled their freezers with Striped Bass in the spring and fall runs and game during the winter hunting seasons.
Running a trap line was another way to make some money but was an ordeal and excrutiating work to be successful at it. It was definitely a slower way of life for us in the late 50's and early 60's. That all changed for me in the fall of 1965. Still like to bow hunt for deer and go surf fishing for the Striped bass during the spring and fall runs. But it's changed a whole lot from those days.

[B.J]

I see the "Freaky Friday" thing going on with Ski and Webs :D

You know, that movie where the mother and daughter want to trade places, then get their wishes.

[Runner]

Nice trading Ski, I have not looked into VTIV. The last time I looked at that stock it was in a nice down spin.

[skiracer]

Well it's dropped a pretty good deal over the last 3 days from my entry at 20.20. I guess it's all part of it. My own opinion is that you do what you think you want to do and learn from it. If you can do that and live with the results and not deceive yourself in the long run it will work out if you keep at it.

[skiracer]

I'd take 39 again if I could keep what I know now to take with me. That would be like a shark in a mullet pond.

[skiracer]

http://img53.echo.cx/img53/672/spy6mf.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img53.echo.cx/img53/7116/stkswth9iz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Well I'm sure this little tidbit which I just came across has helped to hold HTRN back from crossing 13 the last week or so. These guys are heartless sobs.


http://img91.echo.cx/img91/2599/htrninsdr6yk.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Maybe that explains this chart. Like you said before the insiders sell all the time.

http://img258.echo.cx/img258/4971/htrn57ty.th.png (http://img258.echo.cx/my.php?image=htrn57ty.png)
http://img258.echo.cx/img258/6706/htrn43cp.th.png (http://img258.echo.cx/my.php?image=htrn43cp.png)

[Runner]

Ski, I’m not sure VTIV is ready yet, but I hope I’m wrong and it moves over 22.00 mark!! This stock has been under heavy distribution and is flirting with the 200 DMA on the daily chart. Maybe the Bulls will try to give it a boost today..

[skiracer]

Maybe that explains this chart. Like you said before the insiders sell all the time.

http://img258.echo.cx/img258/4971/htrn57ty.th.png (http://img258.echo.cx/my.php?image=htrn57ty.png)
http://img258.echo.cx/img258/6706/htrn43cp.th.png (http://img258.echo.cx/my.php?image=htrn43cp.png)

Runner,
Your chart comes up but is so fuzzy that it's illegible. I don't know what is causing this phenomenom but I get the same thing with New-Born's charts. I wonder if it has anything to do with the smaller charts. Can't read this one. If it is no problem could you do those two charts over again an send them through regular size instead of miniturizing them. Just to see if they come through better that way. Thanks.


I've traded VTIV on several occassions where it had pulled way back from the mid 20's to under 20 an it has always come back to 22/23 area from those pullbacks. Nothing that I can see has changed with the fundamentals. I'm averaged out at 19.88 on the 2000 shares. Hope it does it again this time. Alot will depend on the market conditions.

I'm always checking to see if insiders have been buying or selling and missed these on HTRN. These were pretty recent sales and definitely played a part in holding it under 13 or so. They were selling off into it's strength. Then they issue themselves more stock, options, or warrants at a cheaper price and wait to do it all over again at our expense. Even with the insider sales the institutions have been acquiring more of it.

[Runner]

Ski, the chart on HTRN is no biggie; IT was just showing the CFM indicator. Not sure what I did with it I think I dumped it from my hard drive. Been up all night and I’m getting a little burned out right now. Heck I just checked HTRN and it is holding its ground right now!!

[skiracer]

This is a prime example of a lesson in adhering to your disciplines. VTIV averaged in at 19.88 on 2000 shares. 7% loss exit at 18.49. I haven't set a stop at this point but am watching the trade an if it hits 18.49/18.45 range it's sayonara baby with a 1.49 point loss on the trade and the 2000 shares. That's - $3000 on the trade which if it goes that way is going to knock out alot of some recent gains on other recent trades that went the right way. It sucks and feels like shit but consider that it is better at this point than wishing and hoping that it rebounds only to watch it drop further for a bigger loss. The only consolitation is to stop the bleeding now early enough and to preserve capital to catch it sometime later on when it does rebound or to enter other trades which hopefully will work out better.
It seems like alot of money an it is a decent amount but it's all just proportional to the amount that you're working with. The whole idea is to give your trade room to breathe within your particular tolerances so you gave it a chance to do what you thought it might do. When it doesn't then the point to preserve capital becomes the primary objective.
I'm working with a decent amount of capital in this trading account. The $3000 loss is not much of a dent in the total pile but don't think that it doesn't hurt just as bad to take a hit like this if it does go to the 7% loss point an I bail out. It takes a whole lot of will power to walk away from it when your emotions are screaming to hold it awhile longer in the hope it will recoup. They very seldom do in these situations and the loss only increases in size and you're left telling yourself that you knew this was going to happen and why did you let it which increases the frustration and confusion level. In this activity that is the last thing you need to happen to your mental processes. Much better to stick to your plan and take the loss to live to play another day.

In the meantime it's at 18.54 and getting down to the wire. I'm sitting here in my office watching the screen and the stock dive and thinking you have to be masochistic to even think about trading these markets.

[Runner]

Ski, I see the largest bid @ 18.39 right now

[skiracer]

Runner,
I'm out at 18.48, 18.46, an 18.45. Nice hit and a beautiful start to the weekend. Wiped out several nice gains over the last couple of weeks.
Take me off the grill I think I'm well done on both sides after this week.

[Websman]

Runner,
I'm out at 18.48, 18.46, an 18.45. Nice hit and a beautiful start to the weekend. Wiped out several nice gains over the last couple of weeks.
Take me off the grill I think I'm well done on both sides after this week.

That makes two of us. :(

I'll forget all about it, once I get out on the water this weekend.

Webs...

[skiracer]

It's only money. I'm 60 years old an am in primo physical condition and health. Could write a book about crap I've been through but none of it measures up to good health and family. I've been blessed with all of that and more. Like you said none of it will matter once you're out on the water. Great attitude Webs.
PS, I'm coming in for the ears transplant. One other point. MM site is far and away much more fun than the other one.

[skiracer]

This is just one of the things that subscribing to Briefing.com's platimum service provides for you. Got this early this am and was ready for the premarket before it even opened with a buy order. Turned into a decent play on the breaking news about the earnings report. Look at the time of the newswire. 6:25 am.

http://img53.echo.cx/img53/406/cmtl5fn.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

It's only money. I'm 60 years old an am in primo physical condition and health. Could write a book about crap I've been through but none of it measures up to good health and family. I've been blessed with all of that and more. Like you said none of it will matter once you're out on the water. Great attitude Webs.
PS, I'm coming in for the ears transplant. One other point. MM site is far and away much more fun than the other one.

Ski,

You holding any VTIV? I haven't watched it for two weeks until today, and saw it right at $18. What's the news?

Briefing.com did you well, didn't it?

[skiracer]

This is a prime example of a lesson in adhering to your disciplines. VTIV averaged in at 19.88 on 2000 shares. 7% loss exit at 18.49. I haven't set a stop at this point but am watching the trade an if it hits 18.49/18.45 range it's sayonara baby with a 1.49 point loss on the trade and the 2000 shares. That's - $3000 on the trade which if it goes that way is going to knock out alot of some recent gains on other recent trades that went the right way. It sucks and feels like shit but consider that it is better at this point than wishing and hoping that it rebounds only to watch it drop further for a bigger loss. The only consolitation is to stop the bleeding now early enough and to preserve capital to catch it sometime later on when it does rebound or to enter other trades which hopefully will work out better.
It seems like alot of money an it is a decent amount but it's all just proportional to the amount that you're working with. The whole idea is to give your trade room to breathe within your particular tolerances so you gave it a chance to do what you thought it might do. When it doesn't then the point to preserve capital becomes the primary objective.
I'm working with a decent amount of capital in this trading account. The $3000 loss is not much of a dent in the total pile but don't think that it doesn't hurt just as bad to take a hit like this if it does go to the 7% loss point an I bail out. It takes a whole lot of will power to walk away from it when your emotions are screaming to hold it awhile longer in the hope it will recoup. They very seldom do in these situations and the loss only increases in size and you're left telling yourself that you knew this was going to happen and why did you let it which increases the frustration and confusion level. In this activity that is the last thing you need to happen to your mental processes. Much better to stick to your plan and take the loss to live to play another day.

In the meantime it's at 18.54 and getting down to the wire. I'm sitting here in my office watching the screen and the stock dive and thinking you have to be masochistic to even think about trading these markets.

New-Born,
Took a nice hit on VTIV last week. Ended up exiting at 18.46 average for a 1.42 loss on the position. Made most of it back with an intraday trade on HTRN Monday and with CMTL today.
When I saw tidbit come across the wires this morning I immediately put a buy order in for the premarket and was filled at 36.40 range. Only a half position. Ended up exiting the trade at just under 39. So the VTIV fiasco is just about washed out with those two trades. Just luck with HTRN and the big spike up on Monday. Sold it over 14 and re-entered again in the pm at 13.12.

I love VTIV. I have traded it a number of times with good success so the stock doesn't owe me anything. I don't know what is going on with it at the present but I'm watching it closely for a bottoming out an another shot at it on the next bounce up. It looks pretty cheap to me right now. Fundamentally I don't see anything wrong with it and there hasn't been any bad news across the wires.

I can't really tell you how much of an edge Briefing.com's newswire affords me with the up to the minute realtime streaming breaking news all daylong. Plus all their other stuff that comes with the subscription. $24.95 per month. I made over $1000 on the trade today with CMTL and bought it just on the early morning news of it reporting .08 above consensus with it's earnings release this morning. Kind of pays for itself wouldn't you agree. I see so much of that type of breaking news everyday coming across their newswire.

Does VTIV look cheap to you at this range?

[jiesen]

New-Born,
Took a nice hit on VTIV last week. Ended up exiting at 18.46 average for a 1.42 loss on the position. Made most of it back with an intraday trade on HTRN Monday and with CMTL today.
When I saw tidbit come across the wires this morning I immediately put a buy order in for the premarket and was filled at 36.40 range. Only a half position. Ended up exiting the trade at just under 39. So the VTIV fiasco is just about washed out with those two trades. Just luck with HTRN and the big spike up on Monday. Sold it over 14 and re-entered again in the pm at 13.12.

I love VTIV. I have traded it a number of times with good success so the stock doesn't owe me anything. I don't know what is going on with it at the present but I'm watching it closely for a bottoming out an another shot at it on the next bounce up. It looks pretty cheap to me right now. Fundamentally I don't see anything wrong with it and there hasn't been any bad news across the wires.

I can't really tell you how much of an edge Briefing.com's newswire affords me with the up to the minute realtime streaming breaking news all daylong. Plus all their other stuff that comes with the subscription. $24.95 per month. I made over $1000 on the trade today with CMTL and bought it just on the early morning news of it reporting .08 above consensus with it's earnings release this morning. Kind of pays for itself wouldn't you agree. I see so much of that type of breaking news everyday coming across their newswire.

Does VTIV look cheap to you at this range?

it does to me. not quite cheap enough that I'd buy it though. If I were looking for another health care industry stock, I would consider it... CGTK is at the top of my list though right now, in that category.

[Runner]

http://img103.echo.cx/img103/4353/vtiv9am.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

it does to me. not quite cheap enough that I'd buy it though. If I were looking for another health care industry stock, I would consider it... CGTK is at the top of my list though right now, in that category.

Let me know when this one goes to a complete pile of junk. I'll jump in there with you, Jiesen!

Chart Runner posted says bottom is $17, although I think I posted about three weeks ago she's headed lower. . . .

[skiracer]

I'm keeping a close eye on it now with it breaking below 18. I would be surprised to see it go below 17 from this point but stranger things have happenned. That would be a real bargain to me below 17 but I don't think we'll see it go that low.
Past history shows it dropping and then strong bounces to previous levels. This is one of those stocks that you will have to be there watching the intraday action to catch it when it starts another move up. When it does it is usually with a strong decisive move up for a couple of days. I thought that at this level it is starting to look cheap, but I don't want to buy and hold on waiting for it to go off. I want to see the move begin at the open or on some news an embrace the move.

[Runner]

Newborn, I plotted fist wave target off the 26.70 high @ 18.65. Wave potential I come up with is 13.67. Of course we all know how targets can be missed. I do like the Doji that has formed on the weekly chart!!

[skiracer]

If it goes to 13.67 I'll be buying a load of it and sitting on it until it presents a couple of points gain.
Can't imagine it going that low. I saw the same candle (doji) on the weekly and liked it myself. I think it will bounce pretty soon and be ready for it and don't procrastinate!!

[mystiky]

I have a feeling that SMH did a double-top today with a "fake" breakout.
Seems to me like its due for a correction.

Any comments?

P.S. I am hooding June $35 puts as of todays close

[New-born baby]

I have a feeling that SMH did a double-top today with a "fake" breakout.
Seems to me like its due for a correction.

Any comments?

P.S. I am hooding June $35 puts as of todays close

Well, you'll know more tomorrow. The chart says that it needs to move higher tomorrow in order to confirm the $39 target. The chart has been real nice up to now, but look at the weak MACD. Notice the histogram shows distribution?
A warning of weakening. But the RSI still shows money flow into the SMH.
Tomorrow if she moves higher, and I think it will, then believe the chart and head to $39. A pullback tomorrow might signal a top, but I'd have to look at tomorrow's action to see.
http://img253.echo.cx/img253/8818/chart13dg.th.gif (http://img253.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart13dg.gif)

[Runner]

http://img93.echo.cx/img93/3318/smh0st.th.png (http://img93.echo.cx/my.php?image=smh0st.png)

Could be possible some bulls bot off the top trend line. It will need more volume on the Bulls part. Notice the double tap retest. Bulls have been keeping SHM up, at least for now!!

[jiesen]

Let me know when this one goes to a complete pile of junk. I'll jump in there with you, Jiesen!

Chart Runner posted says bottom is $17, although I think I posted about three weeks ago she's headed lower. . . .

there's no guarantee this is going to hit my buy target, but I'll definitely post it to this forum first thing, if and when it does (I have posted each of my equity trades on this forum since starting my thread, btw). I'm also waiting to see a decent ER from XING soon, which could get me some extra cash to gamble with- but this is also not guaranteed.

[Runner]

Just pulled up a weekly chart on SMH
http://img176.echo.cx/img176/1931/smh8le.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Mystiky,
It broke through short term resistance yesterday at 35.20 range and the next real resistance could be around 39/40 to 45 range. Yesterday was not a fake or failed breakout. It looks to be the real thing with a lower low at the open to reverse an close on a higher high which signals bullish action.
I think that there is some gas left in it's tank and will probably go up from here.
What puzzles me is your buying June 35 options so close to the expiration date. Just not enough time in my book for that play. If you're betting it goes down why not take a short position? Especially if it's the short term that you're looking at. You probably will get some pullback or consolidation of it's recent gains, because that's natural after a longer period of gains like it has, but I would have gone the short side play in that case. Hope it works out for you but with the June 35 option play it is going to have to go down from here to realize a decent gain on the options before expiration. With the options time is also your worst enemy.

[mystiky]

Skiracer and others....

Thanks for the charts and opinions....

I dumped those June $35 puts today at .50 cents

Made .15 on each one..... not a big deal, but I agree that SMH looks to be in an uptrend but I felt that INTC numbers would create some profit taking.

[skiracer]

Mystiky,
What bothers me the most is that you politely ask for comment and you get it from sincere but like yourself people who only know their own opinions. Then you react to how you feel + their thoughts and sometimes it changes the outcome of what your initial game plan was. Always seek others opinions but remain true to your own first.
Hope what I posted was not to authoritative or swayed you from what your original intentions were.

[New-born baby]

Mystiky,
What bothers me the most is that you politely ask for comment and you get it from sincere but like yourself people who only know their own opinions. Then you react to how you feel + their thoughts and sometimes it changes the outcome of what your initial game plan was. Always seek others opinions but remain true to your own first.
Hope what I posted was not to authoritative or swayed you from what your original intentions were.

SMH was down some .80 today--pretty big profit taking. Now these puts, what are they worth now? Were they naked puts? That is, did you sell the put, hoping you wouldn't have to buy SMH? If the price had gone up, they would have been worthless, correct?

[skiracer]

New-Born,
I would think the puts would increase in value if SMH were down .80 today. Options are funny and sometimes don't act as you think they would because of the time element of that particular instrument. I'm sure Mystiky would have increased his gain if he had held on longer into the day.
I was just hoping that I didn't help to sway him into unloading.

[jiesen]

SMH was down some .80 today--pretty big profit taking. Now these puts, what are they worth now? Were they naked puts? That is, did you sell the put, hoping you wouldn't have to buy SMH? If the price had gone up, they would have been worthless, correct?

I think you misunderstood, NBB. He sold the put to close out his position (he had bought a put previously). Buying a put and selling it is a very reasonable way to capitalize on a stock you think is going down, since liabilty is capped, whereas shorting it leaves you exposed to possibly unlimited losses (or naked). But even opening a position by selling a put wouldn't really be considered naked, imo, since the potential liability there (although it may be large) is still capped at the price where you'd be stuck buying the stock.

Yeah, he could have made money hanging onto that SMH put, but sometimes a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush- it could easily have gone the other way. I wish I had cashed in with my CME 230 call when it went from $1 to $5 in a week. I got greedy and it expired worthless. Next time I have a 400% profit in my hand, I'm going to take the money and run.

[skiracer]

At least half.

[jiesen]

At least half.

well, you can't sell half when you only buy one contract... but yeah, selling half can usually work, too.

[mystiky]

My original message

I have a feeling that SMH did a double-top today with a "fake" breakout.
Seems to me like its due for a correction.

Any comments?

P.S. I am hooding June $35 puts as of todays close

your reply

Mystiky,
What bothers me the most is that you politely ask for comment and you get it from sincere but like yourself people who only know their own opinions. Then you react to how you feel + their thoughts and sometimes it changes the outcome of what your initial game plan was. Always seek others opinions but remain true to your own first.
Hope what I posted was not to authoritative or swayed you from what your original intentions were.

What exactly are you accusing me of? I clearely stated that I thought that SMH was overdone and that the INTC would not be as good as many thought. I then posted the fact I was holding the puts and asked for some of you that know charts much better than I ever will for some opinions.

How did I mis-represent anything? After I was out of the trade, I clearely stated when and at what price.

Just puzzled why you wrote such a comment. By the way, I am very thankful that there is a free forum for people to help folks out like I, so in no way am I looking for "rub it in" or "prove that you guys were wrong" or etc...

Have a great weekend everyone!

[mystiky]

SMH was down some .80 today--pretty big profit taking. Now these puts, what are they worth now? Were they naked puts? That is, did you sell the put, hoping you wouldn't have to buy SMH? If the price had gone up, they would have been worthless, correct?

Actually, I just bought those June $35 puts and had no underlying securities or anything. Of course I sold them at .55 and now I see it at .75.

So basically I could have even doubled more my profit if I was a little more patient!

[skiracer]

Mystiky,
Please don't take my post the wrong way. I was just saying that I hoped my thoughts on the matter didn't sway you from holding onto the options. In no way was I accusing you in any way of anything. I was hoping our opinions, mine in particular, didn't cause you any harm. That's all but now that I went back and read my post I could see how someone could interpret it the other way. I'm sorry about that.

[skiracer]

Here's some food for thought on a strategy for gaps up or down at the open. As always a plan or any plan is usually better than no plan at all.


http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/9771/gaps7wz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/1730/gaps21nb.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img139.imageshack.us/img139/3946/gap35fd.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[B.J]

Excellent stuff, Ski. I've been burned a time or two getting stopped out at the open. Probably shouldn't even watch the market until 6:50 (9:50).

[skiracer]

BJ,
Me too before I came to know this outfit. It started to make sense to me once I read their take on it and started to watch the number of times that it did exactly as they are talking about. Now I wait an excerise some patience and restraint. It's just another item to have some kind of strategy to apply if it comes up which in this case is alot.

[skiracer]

IBM looks like it is ready for a decent bounce after testing resistance at 77/78 range three times before finally blasting through. Look for it to fill that gap between 80 and 85 and could go higher if we get a continuation of this recent uptrend.
Big point is that the NAS has finally broken through 2100 an seems to be holding it. Any help from the markets and IBM will be one of the leaders further up.
Excerise patience and watch for it to make a move from the open. If it still holds the move at 10 am it's a go and I'm in for a full position. I'm looking for 85 here.

http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/3664/ibm5rm.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Exited NGPS and CMTL today. NGPS at 31.00 for a 5.20 gain and CMTL for a 2.02 gain. Was holding 500 shares of each. Freeing up some capital for IBM. Bought 1000 shares of IBM today at 78.60. I hate buying any stock above $35/40 because it's alot of money on one position. Only my own personal feelings on it. Actually this trade took up two positions under normal conditions total money wise. Bought IBM today right around it low of the day when it turned back up. Been tracking up all of last week and pullback today provided a great entry. Up .36 on the trade today. Tech sector, SOX and SMH very strong today and over the past week. IBM up pretty good last week and building on the right side of it's base now. Strong SOX and SMH will be very good for the position.

[Websman]

[QUOTE=skiracer] I hate buying any stock above $35/40 because it's alot of money on one position. Only my own personal feelings on it. [QUOTE]

My feelings as well. I'm working with limited capital so I tend to look for lower priced stocks.

[skiracer]

John Murphy from StockCharts is feeling bullish on the SOX and SMH. If the NAS and the tech sector keep this up we will have a nice uptrend in the works.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/6804/sox16sk.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/9001/sox20lx.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I was feeling that TEcH might just be getting started. Nice charts SKI and best with IBM!

[skiracer]

Exited NGPS and CMTL today. NGPS at 31.00 for a 5.20 gain and CMTL for a 2.02 gain. Was holding 500 shares of each. Freeing up some capital for IBM. Bought 1000 shares of IBM today at 78.60. I hate buying any stock above $35/40 because it's alot of money on one position. Only my own personal feelings on it. Actually this trade took up two positions under normal conditions total money wise. Bought IBM today right around it low of the day when it turned back up. Been tracking up all of last week and pullback today provided a great entry. Up .36 on the trade today. Tech sector, SOX and SMH very strong today and over the past week. IBM up pretty good last week and building on the right side of it's base now. Strong SOX and SMH will be very good for the position.

Just an update on a couple of things. Glad I took the profits in CMTL and NGPS the other day. Both are showing signs of weakness today. Just lucky to some degree in selling them off just to free some money to get into IBM. Always better to take the profits no matter what drives you to do it.

IBM up pretty good from my entry. I'm setting a stop first thing in the morning at 81.35 which is real close to today's close. The position is up 2.85 an I'm protecting those gains. My honest feelings are that it is going to consolidate and pullback from here tomorrow. If it goes back under 79 it could be a nice spot for an entry. So much depends on the timing and what the SOX and markets are going to do.

HTRN had a nice day going for itself until near the end of the day when it went from 14.27 to 13.70 in a matter of minutes. It recouped the drop in a matter of minutes and closed today at 14.01 depending on what service you watch. The big thing here is that it had a big buy in the AH of around 804,000 shares at 14.16.

http://img285.imageshack.us/img285/6346/htrn8cw.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

The stock is reporting earnings on July 27 after the bell. The position is up 1.51 after today. No stop set on it yet. Big swings in this thing on an intraday basis an I don't want to get stopped out after holding the position as long as I have on this most recent entry.

I'm still holding VPHM from 8.70. Glad I procrastinated and couldn't make up my mind about what to do on the reversal the other day. Up 1.35 on the trade as of close today. I'll be setting a stop on this one around 9.70 just as a precaution. I don't know what brought on that big bounce in the afternoon today but I think this one could pullback some after todays gains. Those last two candles aren't exactly positive. A doji and a small selloff to end the day.

They made a mistake on the volume amount on big trade AH an I made a mistake relying on them. The actual trade was for 4000 shares @ 14.16 and not 804,000 shares @ 14.16. The SOB's had my heart pounding.

[skiracer]

http://img293.imageshack.us/img293/1186/swngtrdr0vd.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

I have to agree with this guy's take on the markets over the last few days. Last week he, John Murphy of Stockcharts, and Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group, were all talking up how good the SOX, SMH, and the tech sector in general were looking. Somewhere out of those three I got the lead on IBM. I wasn't necessarily watching IBM but once the seed was planted an I started looking at the chart the chart and sector the setup began to look good to me.

In at $78.60 and closed today at $82.42. Up 3.82 in less than a week. I put a stop on it this morning at 81.35. I was actually thinking I was going to get stopped out because it has had a pretty nice bounce an I thought it was going to consolidate. Fooled again in a positive fashion. The tech sector has been strong over the last couple of weeks but I haven't seen hardly any posts about the sector or any of the bigger or lesser name tech stocks. There have been a few nice moves in the sector. Was wondering if anyone else had made the play on IBM or any of the other better known names in the tech sector. Does anyone else watch the strong sectors primarily to find the stocks which are in the hot sectors and those setups. I mentioned this one a couple of days before the runup but not a word on it from anyone except Runner who wished me luck with the trade. Just curious to see if anyone else even looked at or considered this one. I raised the stop this afternoon to $82.25. Almost 5% in less than a week and still hanging in with the trade. This runnup and the markets in general are in need of a small correction before considering any long setups but not advising anyone to jump into anything short because of it. Of course if something jumps out at you like HANS did intraday today for MTM it's a nice bone.

[Runner]

Way to go Ski with IBM. I did not trade it. As for tech I’ve noticed the increase in the RSI in the sector and I often look at the sector charts from stockcharts. I like to try to figure out rotation and then attempt to find set-ups in that sector.

Over the last 5 sessions RSI standings:

Tech +5.9
Consumer Staples +5.8
Financials +5.9

Energy –7.4
Utilities –4.6

[skiracer]

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/836/amln2nm.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/8435/goog2ew.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/1729/goog7nx.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Picked these little tidbits up from the Briefing.com newswire. I know there are a few people out there interested in these names. Hope it provides a little more insight about the stock and possible trades. Nothing to do with my feelings or anything. Just passing on info.

[New-born baby]

Picked these little tidbits up from the Briefing.com newswire. I know there are a few people out there interested in these names. Hope it provides a little more insight about the stock and possible trades. Nothing to do with my feelings or anything. Just passing on info.

Thanks, Ski. Hey, I'm a big boy now. I can handle hearing a contra post about the garbage I've been trading. :D (AMLN :D)

I appreciate any and all info you throw up on the board. Keep it coming!

[New-born baby]

Ski--
While you're working on a bloody nose :D
Any news on HANS or TOL?

[skiracer]

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/5130/swgtrd7xz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/4011/stkstowth16ev.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img337.imageshack.us/img337/2674/stkstowth21vv.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Briefing.com again and a few stocks to keep an eye on.

[New-born baby]

Ski--
While you're working on a bloody nose :D
Any news on HANS or TOL?
http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/8421/chart15lx.th.gif (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15lx.gif)
He didn't like my stock picks, either.

[skiracer]

NB,
Actually like AMLN and am keeping a close eye on it. Webs and you were talking about it an brought it to my attention. I thought there might be something there looking at the weekly chart this past week. Didn't know much about the stock other than the chart and then saw the tidbit about the Byetta drug and didn't know that there was so much hinging on it's acceptance. Wasn't knocking the stock but just hoping to pass on something that I came across which might help us out.
As far as GOOG goes. I was way off base on my take on it. $300 for a stock just amazes me yet people just keep buying it an it just keeps going up. You saw something there I didn't and glad you got it.
I posted the double tidbit on GOOG by accident an wasn't trying to be sarcastic. Actually the 3rd little tidbit was on MCD and was for Webs. He's been talking about it and the comment on Briefing.com was a positive remark. I didn't realize I posted the one on GOOG twice so I'll post the one on MCD below now. I love the avitars you put up. Also will keep an eye out for anything that comes across on HANS or TOL.
http://img332.imageshack.us/img332/5601/mcd0ai.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Thank you for another fine post, Ski. Seriously, I was just playing with you. You know, the old Mr. Market humor thing. I love the Briefing.com posts. I think those guys know what they are talking about.

AMLN--I'm down on it, and I don't like it. I foolishly bought at $23.40--above support. Good thing Spike is on vacation in the basement or he'd give me a well-deserved sermon on 'buying at support; selling at resistance." I could kick myself a million times over for that blunder. And I probably will have many opportunities to do so. I just hope it doesn't pull a BEL on me and take me down with it.

Having said that, I bought the stock for the earnings growth. Jiesen says he'll eat his hat if it goes to zero. Easy for him to say; he doesn't even own one. So the earnings need to grow. And then you post saying they are not going to grow. DOH! What I really need is Jim Cramer to pump this thing so I can dump my shares. Where is that guy when you NEED him?

Oh yeah, if you like AMLN, I hope it is SHORT. :D For your sake.

[skiracer]

I actually liked it long. Right now you're .02 above -7% from your entry so strategically you're still above a 7% loss point if that were your discipline. Looking at the weekly I wish I could be more optomistic but the daily looks a little better to me than the weekly with that last candle being a doji you just might get a turnaround this coming week. These news articles bring out the anxiety in traders and it could cause a bigger drop from here but there's nothing you can do between now and Monday so gather your thoughts and be prepared to act. Hope it goes in your direction.

[New-born baby]

I actually liked it long.

Let's look at this devil. Here's the daily for the last 90 days:
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/6161/chart17zf.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart17zf.gif)

Look at those support levels. The first one is weak as a kitten. The second one is stronger, but the real support comes down (~choke here~) around $16.

If $21.30 doesn't hold, no question in my mind, she's falling to $20. Then she'll bounce and hit her head on the $21.30 mark, and fall down again with the old shoulder~head~shoulder thing. That virtually assures a $16 or lower stock.

One way to handle it is to sell it short. If it is going to fall, ride her down. Monday will tell us alot. $21.30 has got to hold--

(Statements like that last one evince sermons on "hope"--the investors enemy when a stock is falling. Watch out!)

Now here's the weekly:
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/7852/chart25kz.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart25kz.gif)
You're right: it doesn't look as good as the daily.
Now compare shooters:
http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/6421/chart32bz.th.gif (http://img339.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart32bz.gif)
Ugh!

[New-born baby]

If I had a financial advisor showing me a chart of AMLN and telling me to buy it now, here's what he'd look like.
http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/8421/chart15lx.th.gif (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15lx.gif)
No, I'm not down on the stock. I am realistically appraising it. You know, with Vulcan self-control. ;)

[skiracer]

In that case I'm positive that you're going to be alright regardless of what happens. It's only money an only one trade.

[jiesen]

Having said that, I bought the stock for the earnings growth. Jiesen says he'll eat his hat if it goes to zero. Easy for him to say; he doesn't even own one. So the earnings need to grow. And then you post saying they are not going to grow. DOH! What I really need is Jim Cramer to pump this thing so I can dump my shares. Where is that guy when you NEED him?

Oh yeah, if you like AMLN, I hope it is SHORT. :D For your sake.

Um, there was nothing in Ski's post saying AMLN would not grow their revenue. It's practically impossible for them NOT to grow revenue with 2 new drugs adding sales at 40% growth per WEEK right now. Yes, currently sales are low (only $1-$2M per month) but in a few months at the current prescription growth rate you'll see $10-$20M in monthly sales. Check the June earnings, then check again when September's numbers come out, and tell me then that earnings haven't grown. I'll eat your hat.

Also, don't freak out when a stock you buy drops 7% the first week. People writing stories like the one Ski posted (AMLN stock won't go up if the revenue estimates are lowered) are playing into such fears, and will buy your AMLN stock from you exactly when you sell it at $19.5. If you can't overcome this fear, or you don't know enough to buy a stock with the confidence that you've made a good decision, then don't buy it- or sell it if you've already made that mistake, rather than waiting for the price to drop to the point where you'll make a worse mistake and sell for the maximum loss you can take.

[skiracer]

I was just passing on an article that came across the Briefing.com newswire and wasn't in any way giving a prognosis or opinion of what the earnings or trend of AMLN were going to be. As I said in an earlier post I liked the stock and kind of still do. I said I would be keeping a close eye on it from this point because deep down I think the stock will present an opportunity at these lower prices for a trade. I always try to catch theses particular situations when the stock in question has dropped to a low point where the sharks realize that the opportunity and setup merits a position because of the cheap price. AMLN seems to be approaching that area in price where it might be a worthwhile trade setup. That's my reasoning behind this dialogue.

Your specific strategys and discipline are what drives exit strategys. Since I am basically a short term swing trader it's important to me to have a pre-determined exit strategy. Mine is 7%. I very seldom violate that discipline and when I do it seems I always end up regretting it. In the case of AMLN I was speaking in general terms to New Born as I saw his position. There wasn't any suggestion of exiting the position only stating the obvious % drop from his entry in the trade. Otherwise I agree with all the points you made in your post. Knowing your own limitations and strategys is the key to all of this an I'm certain New Born knows his. Getting caught in a falling position because of a news article some nit-witted so called analyst puts on the newswire can happen to anyone holding any stock at any moment. ELN is a prime example. It's a shame but it does happen to many times. Your right though about people grabbing those shares that anxious traders sell off because they don't know their limitations or have a discipline. That's why I always push knowing that concept. Containing your emotions in following those strategys and disciplines, regardless of what they are, is usually most traders weak spot an is what most of us should consider in our trading.

[skiracer]

http://img305.imageshack.us/img305/9431/amlnda4ak.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img305.imageshack.us/img305/7987/amlnwk2am.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Daily and weekly charts giving possible different signals. That last candle on the top chart, daily, could suggest reversal of drop. Shrinking volume also suggests sellers losing strength and battle.
Weekly chart, bottom, last candle gravestone doji suggests possible reversal of the uptrend but volume still hanging in there.

Perplexing situation between the two charts and the news release on the Byetta drug maybe already being factored into earnings.
These news releases often do temporary damage only and provide a lower entry as a result of it. Before that the uptrend was looking pretty good and strong. I'm going to use it in my picks in the game this week and will be looking for a possible entry if it drops much lower. My own feelings are that it is a good stock and will provide more uptrend once this news wears off.

[B.J]

Thanks for the charts/analysis Ski. Very good...

Like any candlestick formation, upcoming confirmation is needed. You point out conflicting daily/weekly, so that probably indicates that the "moment of truth" is imminent.

My personal opinion: If the current level of about 21.5-22 fails, it should see strong support at about 20. I only have a less than half position at 22, so if I complete it at 20, I'll have an average purchase of 20 and change. My stop would then be under 20 because it gets REAL THIN then.

[New-born baby]

I am not going to average down on this one. Certainly not at $20. $16 is in the realm of possibility. My plan is to just hold on until she turns profitable for me. That's right: no stops.

[New-born baby]

Hey, SKI

What's the prognosis on BPT? We have a dividend paying stock here, to the tune of $6.13 per year. Currently priced at $71.60 or so. I'd like to know what the Dr. says. :( ;) :D :)

[Runner]

I like AMLN off 38 fib line. It could even run up from current price. friday was the first day the price dropped below the bull line on the daily chart.

http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/9901/amln9dy6ap.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

I like AMLN off 38 fib line. It could even run up from current price. friday was the first day the price dropped below the bull line on the daily chart.

Runner,
That 38 fib is $20, which is where I think it is headed once it breaks the $21.30 mark. What's your target for AMLN from here? From $20?

[Runner]

NB here is a possible target with stop on AMLN

http://img336.imageshack.us/img336/2427/tgt3rp.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Runner,
Thanks. I needed that.
http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/8421/chart15lx.th.gif (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15lx.gif)

Thanks for the target. Where did you get the fib calculator? I'd like to pick one up myself :D

[Runner]

I use this
http://img315.imageshack.us/img315/5714/cal7mw.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

then I go to Nasdaq.com for the other calculator

[Runner]

Remember that is simply just my target. We all know how these targets could fumble on the field. Max pain would be set in stone and I’d give it only 2.6%. I’ve been burned playing with my stops and now they are set in stone as for me.

[Runner]

NB here is a link from Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/07/15/genentech-amylin-biotechnology-0715markets07.html?partner=yahootix

[skiracer]

I don't own any of the Canadian Oil Trust stocks and probably should for the dividend payouts but here's what I think purely T/A without any basic fundamental knowledge of them.
I have to put up 3 charts that are very much relative to one another and present quite a phenomenom when you see how closely they track and perform together. The first two are OIH, the oil services Holder, XLE, the Energy Select Services SPDR, and last BPT. They are all the weekly charts but the daily and the 15 min. for each are remarkably the close to being the same trending track.

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1605/oih4gg.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/3164/xle8yz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/5619/bpt5mn.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

If oil, energy, goes up or down BPT will certainly track almost exactly the same path that the Holder and the SPDR do. Will oil go up or down from here is the question.
On both charts of the HDR. and SPDR look at the last candle on the weekly charts. Indicative of sellers not being able to keep their momentum over the course of the week and they are saying that buyers are coming back into them both. Both are at all time highs right now and this last week they both sold off. But all three are in the handle formation stage of a cup with handle base with BPT the lesser of the three. My opinion is that oil is going to start back up soon as the Fall and Winter heating season is coming up. Add that to the volitaile geo-political situation in the Mid-East regions and the chances of a terroristic act happenning and oil could easily go off the scale.
Technically speaking I think oil is going to go back up in the short term and definitely over the longer term. BPT will definitely follow their lead. Take a minute and look at the daily and the 15 min. charts for all three. Amazing how close all three charts are to one another.

[New-born baby]

NB here is a link from Forbes. http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/07/15/genentech-amylin-biotechnology-0715markets07.html?partner=yahootix

Runner,
Thanks for the link. Forbes likes it--that's good. If she hits the $20 as I expect, BJ probably will be looking strong if he doubles up.

[New-born baby]

Ski,

Incredible! BPT and the XLE charts are basically indistinguishable. I hold BPT, and it has a nice divy. I'd like to see some nice price appreciation to $75+.
I do not think oil is going down much lower than $58.

[skiracer]

I agree. I don't think that oil is going to go below 58 range from this point. Don't OIH and XLE look to be forming a handle. Not classic handles but the early stage of a handle on both. I thought all 3 were remarkably the same. Hope it does well for you. I think it will go up. Boy that's a nice divey.

[New-born baby]

Boy that's a nice divey.
Better divys across the border. 15-17% divys are common. This one is only 8.57%.

[skiracer]

Just came across this site today. You have to check this out. www.chartfilters.com.

[nwinvestor]

Just came across this site today. You have to check this out. www.chartfilters.com.

The site address is www.chartfilter.com ------no 's' on filter.

[skiracer]

Sorry about that. Didn't realize I added the s. My mistake. Did you get a chance to look at that site. I thought it was pretty good and took the two week trial just to feel it out and see how it flys.

[skiracer]

Drutzen, MTM, and Runner have sent me private messages an I never answered them or read them because I didn't know that I had received them. This morning for some reason I saw the private message link under the Welcome Skiracer thing and clicked it for the hell of it. I didn't know this option was available. I must apologize for not responding to those messages as I didn't understand that they were there until this morning. Sorry guys, I would never do that on purpose. Thanks for taking the time to do that for me. I'll be watching for them from now on. I'll still have to learn how to respond to them which I'm sure is quite simple for me since I must look like a simpleton after this. Thanks again.

[drutzen]

Ski,
No worries, it is kind of hidden at the top.
Dru

[skiracer]

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/3248/swgtdr1ch.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7665/stkstowtch17ki.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/8114/stkstowtch20wy.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/8409/stkstowtch33yv.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

I'm going to try to post these everyday that he, the swing trader from Briefing.com, gives some picks and how they are doing. Some he enters an others don't trigger for whatever reasons. The best thing here, if your strategys are short term trading (swing) are the charts an his analysis. By seeing his take and why he feels that way will over time provide a great education in charting and T/A by a pro. By keeping a loose track of his picks will provide a clear picture of specific setups an the ones that turn out the way he thinks they will and the ones that don't. Also provides a number of good picks to play but you must keep an eye on them to see if they setup the way he feels they will. This guy is good an I have made alot of money following his leads.
You guys are going to get them for nada. So use them as you please. Also should be good for some decent dialogue if you're of that mindset.

[Runner]

Hey ski, awesome stuff. I missed the entire day today but looks like this guy likes one I was eyeing last Friday. I had entry about 18.52. I’ll be keeping a close eye on AQNT tomorrow..


http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=22581&postcount=751

[skiracer]

Runner,
He's a pretty sharp guy. I like him because I can study his charts and learn and better understand the setups with his explanations.
I was looking at AQNT myself the other day after he mentioned it and then you posted on it. I kind of like it myself although didn't make the play.

[skiracer]

Boy talk about missing a great move. I placed a pretty close stop on the position I had in IBM last week mainly because I had 3.75 or so gains and wanted to protect them. I was right because the players took out their profits an it fell back to the 81 range stopping me out at 82.25 on the way.
But I should have kept a closer eye on it because I knew they were getting ready to report earnings and the prognosis was good. I missed the boat on this one. They report .08 over consensus and yesterday in the AH and this morning in the pre-market they are up almost 4 points. Bad for me for missing the boat but good because this should give the market a further boost as IBM is an integral part of the tech sector and that drives the markets. Today should be a good day for most stocks and we could see a nice bounce in the NASDAQ. Good trading.

[B.J]

Oh shoot, sorry Ski... here I was in the Portfolio thread congratulating you on IBM. Didn't realize you had sold.

[skiracer]

BJ,
Actually got stopped out at 82.25. Wasn't really paying attention to it after I was out of it. Knew the earnings were coming up but just wasn't paying attention. It's having a nice day so far.

[skiracer]

Today was a great day. You could have bought almost any bluechip and made a half point or more without any problem. All of this on IBM earning report after hours yesterday.

Also got stopped out of HTRN at 13.50 around 3.30 pm today. God I've been stopped out 3 times on this stock. 1 point gain realized this trip. Will be watching this one close for big pullback now. Earning on July 27 so they always seem to pullback just before the report for the big guys to shove all the little anxious guys out before earnings. I believe they are going to give a great report. Looking for a re-entry point once the dust settles after today. This will make alot of people very nervous so it could go a bit farther down.

[skiracer]

http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/8849/htrn23im.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
This comes across the wires first thing this AM and HTRN gaps up over 14 to start the day. Reaches 14.24 and what they give they take back because early in the PM this comes across the wires and it loses .70 in no time to close at 13.42 or so.

http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/1641/htrn6fk.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Here's a little ditty on ELN. It's amazing how news items will effect the intraday activity of a stock.
http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/2473/eln0od.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/2473/eln0od.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[B.J]

Ski, were you able to add to VPHM this morning? Got down to 10.14 (so my quote says).

[dmk112]

Ski, were you able to add to VPHM this morning? Got down to 10.14 (so my quote says).


Yea I saw that, I thought it was a misprint but then looked at the chart and it looks like it went down there for a second or two so if you had a limit order sitting at that price you may have got some cheap shares.

[skiracer]

I'm ending up with alot of these shares. No I didn't have any kind of a limit order in or anything but got back to the office at around 11/11:30 am and caught it right at the time it was recouping the gap down from this morning. I liked the way it was moving and bought 1000 shares at 11.80. Thought for sure it was going to go off. Then watched it turn and drop to 11.20 range. I bought another 1000 shares at 11.20 this afternoon. I now own 2500 shares at an average of 10.94. There goes my 3 point gain. I still believe the stock is good for 20 range although days like today test your mettle.

[skiracer]

Sold off the 2500 shares in VPHM today at 11.50/11.60 range for an average gain of .66. Decided to take take the small gain and see which way this thing is going to go.
Had high expectations on this stock but really not acting the way I thought it would. I'll be keeping a close eye on it for a re-entry.
Took a position in SIRI for a short term swing today in the after hours at 6.98. Agree with Spike's analysis on the ripe entry time. The coincidence of my liking the stock at this time and Spike's feelings about this point for an entry pushed me into the trade. Not looking for the world here but somewhere around the 7.75.8 range would be nice.

[B.J]

Ski, take it from someone who knows (because I've done it a lot too), but, IMO you broke just about every rule of averaging up in the book on VPHM. 2000 shares over 11 vs. 500 under 9; should be opposite. Plus, I'm not sure you were patient enough with your 11.80 buy. Far from support levels. It's easy to get excited on a rebound, but my experience is to either let it go, or buy a much smaller stake if you feel that good about it.

But, hey, you still profited on it! That alone merits praise.

Today was actually very bullish, except for the very weak volume. American Bulls actually claims a Morning Star. If there's another up day tomorrow on higher volume, I'll keep holding. Probably too late to buy any more right now.

I screwed up too. Slept at the wheel. If I had it to do all over again. I'd have looked at the gap and figured it was ripe to fill sooner or later. That's why it went down to 10.14 that day. BTW, I don't think it completely filled. If I did end up getting the low 10's buy, it probably would have been for about 1/3 of a stake and no more.

[B.J]

The last example of my buying poorly was on July 1. CMT hit a channel long off its low of 8.75. Well, you know what Spike says about those. The price was 9.25 by the time I saw it, so I jumped in. On the 5th, it corrected again, stopping me out, then going on to well over 11.

The fact that I didn't want no part of it today is neither here nor there :D

[skiracer]

BJ,
I liked the stock a whole lot and was anxious to get more of it but didn't really think it was going to pullback the way it did.
I came back to the office that afternoon just a little bit after it had reversed and was heading back up from the 10.14 low you mentioned. I never saw that low but when I looked at the 15 min. chart that afternoon I felt it was going to go off. I watched it go through 11.60 to 11.80 and bought the 1000 shares at 11.80. I wasn't thinking of the position as averaging up or down but just the position and trade from 11.80. It really surprised me when it reversed again from 11.80 and started back down. I bought the 2nd 1000 shares at 11.20 where it stopped for the day.
My feelings were that it was finished with the drop but was also wrong on that call. I wasn't thinking of cost averaging up or down but just getting back into the stock before it went off. It turned out to be a bad trade an a undisciplined one on top of it all from my handling of it the way I did. I was very lucky to escape the way I did with the gains I ended up with. One of the reasons I bailed on the position today was that I was feeling alittle out of control with the trade from what went on with it and just wanted to get out of it. It happens on occasion, not often, but occassionally an I hate it when I lose my focus and stray from my plan. Like I said, I lucked out with the bounce today an ended up in the black with the trade. I'm out of it now and intend to keep a close eye on it for re-entry.
My feelings about the re-entry are that regardless of the entry price the trade starts at that point and the target is from that point so if the stock is moving up and you get in at 12 and your target is 13.50 that is your new plan from the setup and whatever happenned before that is in the past and over and done with.
I have to be honest with the numbers and what I do and the trade did look to be pretty unreasonable and stupid on my part regardless of how it worked out today.

[skiracer]

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/8569/stkstowtch4vl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/3554/recpks17cq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img175.imageshack.us/img175/782/recpks25ty.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Here are a few to consider. Like CAT alot from here and the setup. Will be looking for an entry tomorrow somewhere between 50.50 and 51. The recent picks are doing well as you can see. Some pretty nice gains on his selections.

[Runner]

SKI, you got mail!!

[skiracer]

SIRI just might take a fall today on the earnings report early this morning. Be careful and watch it closely that first half hour. That report looked kinda good but there are a few things in there that could be negative. Also issueing 400 million of new senior notes. Stock is down .01 in pre-market which is no big deal.

[skiracer]

Out of SIRI at 6.86. -.12 on the trade. I really thought it was going to go off. Holding one position right now. STGN. Anyone take a look at this stock.

[New-born baby]

Out of SIRI at 6.86. -.12 on the trade. I really thought it was going to go off. Holding one position right now. STGN. Anyone take a look at this stock.

My view: bullish
http://img170.imageshack.us/img170/9540/chart14ig.th.gif (http://img170.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart14ig.gif)
Buy over $10 and ride. Probably will bust resistance today.

[skiracer]

TOL this morning on Briefing.com.

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/1102/tol9hi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

TOL this morning on Briefing.com.

http://img73.imageshack.us/img73/1102/tol9hi.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This news might just give MM the boost he needs to take 15% out the front door.

[skiracer]

http://img275.imageshack.us/img275/1663/tol27ez.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Food for thought. I'm back looking at their puts a few months out.

[skiracer]

I thought this might be interesting. It's self-explanatory. Very pragmatic approach to risk and money management by a professional trader and hedge fund manager who consistently beats the markets.


http://img33.imageshack.us/img33/2023/morpheus8zx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[mystiky]

I would not be going on much stuff right now...

volume low and maniuplation high...

[skiracer]

Exited STGN at 9.95/10 area the other day after the earnings release. Really a pretty good report but not enough for the instant gratification that is necessary to put it over the top these days. Decent trade though and took a 1.25 gain. Took CMVT long this morning at 25.78/25.85 range. Looked good to me this morning and it had my heart pounding there for a minute. Looked to be going off but staggered and fell back to below my entry. Recouped in the pm and finished up. Daily looks decent but I like the weekly better. So much depends on the general market right now. Nice to see Spike so bullish.

[skiracer]

http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/1690/swg18tj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)


http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/2369/swg20ui.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/4038/swg39gb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/8500/swg44sz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)


http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/9189/swg57yk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I'm not married to this guy but his charts, picks, and analysis are usually right on the money.

[New-born baby]

I'm not married to this guy but his charts, picks, and analysis are usually right on the money.

Beautiful post, Ski! A stance on the market with evidence to back it up! Beautiful post!

It may not take the entire market down, but it surely will hurt those sectors your post mentioned.

[skiracer]

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/9647/murphy17hb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/3820/murphy22ar.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/383/murphy36vx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

These are from messages John Murphy of Stockcharts. He emails two or three of these a day. The message alert service is 19.95 per month. The best part about the service isn't so much the alerts an his take on the markets but his charting. He is considered one of the best market technicians out there an it's an education in itself getting his charts and perspective on the markets.

[skiracer]

Here's some interesting reading on oil and one man's perspective. It's a long read, 13 pages, but a somewhat radical line of thought an interesting. To access it go to Google search and plug in "hubbert's curve".

[skiracer]

Since we were talking on options last week or so I took this from Options Express on options and their implied volitaility.

http://img234.imageshack.us/img234/1698/volitalilty1hb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img258.imageshack.us/img258/4166/pricingoptions1yu.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/9735/pricingoptions24rz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img109.imageshack.us/img109/9735/pricingoptions24rz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img352.imageshack.us/img352/9131/pricingoptions48vp.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img359.imageshack.us/img359/5637/pricingoptions57ir.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Too many images in post. Last part of this below in next post.

[skiracer]

and the final part on Pricing Options:

http://img283.imageshack.us/img283/448/pricingoptions61on.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

SKI-
Your posts on options would be priceless to me, but I only get a box with an "x" on it. I punch the "x" and I get Imageshack, but no chart. What do I need to do?

I am very much interested in your options charts. Thank you for posting!

Here's what I am seeing:
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/8721/chart15vv.th.png (http://img5.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15vv.png)

and here's what Imageshack looks like:
http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/3962/chart27mk.th.png (http://img5.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart27mk.png)

Thank you Ski! You're the man!

[skiracer]

NB,
I'll re-do the info on the options that I posted yesterday morning. Sometime yesterday afternoon I was cleaning up my Imageshack file and didn't realize that by removing them from the file it automatically removed them from the forum site. They weren't charts but info on options volitailiy and options pricing which is always good to have in your knowledge base. There are a number of great sites where you can get this info free and much more about options if you're that interested.

[skiracer]

http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/6608/volitalilty7jy.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/5026/volitaility26sc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img361.imageshack.us/img361/3318/volitaility31hf.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This was the first part. The second part is on the pricing of options. Next post.

[Lyehopper]

I just started looking at your thread and I'm very interested in it. Problem: I can't open any of your imageshack links posted prior to today's post.

[skiracer]

Lye,
New-Born asked me the same thing. I was cleaning up my Imageshack file yesterday afternoon and didn't realize the full impact of that cleanup. Apparently it removes the images fromt the forum site when you remove it from your file there. I re-posted the entire post from yesterday just a few minutes ago. Sorry about the miscue.

[Lyehopper]

I just started looking at your thread and I'm very interested in it. Problem: I can't open any of your imageshack links posted prior to today's post.

CAN open post#318's links but none earlier

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
New-Born asked me the same thing. I was cleaning up my Imageshack file yesterday afternoon and didn't realize the full impact of that cleanup. Apparently it removes the images fromt the forum site when you remove it from your file there. I re-posted the entire post from yesterday just a few minutes ago. Sorry about the miscue.

Thanks Ski .... good work!

[Lyehopper]

Ski I'd love to read the info you had on post #312.

[skiracer]

http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/8851/pricingoptions4vr.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/6189/pricingoptions26hj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/9498/pricingoptions38sl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/8649/pricingoptions43co.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/6724/pricingoptions51fv.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img212.imageshack.us/img212/2554/pricingoptions68dk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This is the rest of what I posted yesterday. If you're interested in options and learning more the best site I could recommend is www.888options.com. I got the above info from Options Express where I trade which is also very good regarding options.

[New-born baby]

NB,
I'll re-do the info on the options that I posted yesterday morning. Sometime yesterday afternoon I was cleaning up my Imageshack file and didn't realize that by removing them from the file it automatically removed them from the forum site. They weren't charts but info on options volitailiy and options pricing which is always good to have in your knowledge base. There are a number of great sites where you can get this info free and much more about options if you're that interested.

Ski,
I AM interested, and I think you are a great guy! Thanks for posting for us all here! I read everything you put up on the board. :D

[skiracer]

New-Born,
Thanks for your appreciation. It's no big deal on my part. Just trying to be a positive factor.

[New-born baby]

Ski,
Could you post a possible option trade on any underlying stock that you might possibly trade? For instance, is there a trade that you are considering making tomorrow that you'd care to post for our consideration? I'd like to see it.

After your first post, I made an option play. I noticed that the GooG chart was saying lower prices for GooG. At the time, the stock was $290. So I sold two August $310 calls. The GooG chart had a shoulder~head~shoulder on the daily chart, and I anticipated the neckline break. GooG fell just like the chart said. If I held the calls until next Friday, I would have received the full amount. But when GooG rebounded Friday, I decided to trade out of my position. I sold the calls at .75 and covered at .25 for a .50 profit in two days.

Yes, that was a naked call on GooG. You may call the shrink to check my sanity.

[New-born baby]

New-Born,
Thanks for your appreciation. It's no big deal on my part. Just trying to be a positive factor.

You are a positive factor :D

[skiracer]

Ski,
Could you post a possible option trade on any underlying stock that you might possibly trade? For instance, is there a trade that you are considering making tomorrow that you'd care to post for our consideration? I'd like to see it.

After your first post, I made an option play. I noticed that the GooG chart was saying lower prices for GooG. At the time, the stock was $290. So I sold two August $310 calls. The GooG chart had a shoulder~head~shoulder on the daily chart, and I anticipated the neckline break. GooG fell just like the chart said. If I held the calls until next Friday, I would have received the full amount. But when GooG rebounded Friday, I decided to trade out of my position. I sold the calls at .75 and covered at .25 for a .50 profit in two days.

Yes, that was a naked call on GooG. You may call the shrink to check my sanity.

NB,
I used to gamble for a living years ago. I would bet it all on anything I thought was a good bet. I don't do that anymore. Work to hard for it now but have alot more now than ever did then.
I don't buy options on a regular basis and when I do it's only a simple call or put to either hedge a position for protection or if I see an out of the money option that I feel is real cheap and is going to be moving towards in the money as the stock goes up. Of course it helps if you really like or own the stock with the calls. Usually with the calls it provides me with a longer term hold in a position while I'm a short term trader. So I can trade the stock either way while I feel it will be trending up over the longer term.
I know plenty of friends, wise guys, who have lost a lot of big money trying to sell calls or puts or the rest of that super imaginative option stuff. You really have to know what you're doing an in all honesty I'm not that well versed in the imagination end of it. Keep it to simple calls or puts otherwise it becomes gambling and you really have to stay on top of it intraday or you'll get wacked very easily.
Understanding volitaility an how to price options is a must to really trade in them. I would advise studying that first to get a handle on it. You can lose just as much, more, and faster with them as you can with stocks. If I see anything I feel is worthwhile I'll post it for you but please be careful.
I'm a little skittish with the long side right now and feel this correction isn't over with yet. I like CMVT and have a position in it from $25.78. I don't know what the option chain looks like right now but I was thinking of a possible longer term option on it and the tech sector in general. I don't know if I would buy that tomorrow but I like the tech sector a little farther out from here. I also like Spikes selection, SNAK, from his post earlier today. It looks very good to me an would buy it at the current closing price today, 5.35, because I like it that much but am being patient and cautious because of the markets an would like to get in at $5.10 if it pullsback tomorrow. I wasn't impressed with the action or the small bounce today. The bigger money was selling this afternoon while the retail guys were thinking it was a trend reversal off of the last 3 days correction. I don't know if there is an option available on SNAK.

[skiracer]

This is exactly how I feel about the market in general right now. Cautious on the long side and except for SNAK and CMVT am looking for shorts and other breakdowns if they setup. Here's what the Swing Trader says:
http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2512/swg17ke.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7954/secwct14tn.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7383/secwct29qa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7473/secwct38at.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

These are all examples of bearish patterns and the last three are bear flags. That top one below the SPY daily chart, SCQ media index, is not an ascending triangle an although not exactly bearish could fool you into thinking that.

[New-born baby]

Ski,
Thanks for the option advice. I'll take it into careful consideration.
As for market direction, yeah, I'm a little skittish just like everyone else. They call it "mild fear." Now Spike says we need to buy into "Wild fear." I'll post whenever that happens. :D

[Lyehopper]

Ski, No options on SNAK....

Have you seen PETS? you can trade options on PETS

[skiracer]

Lye,
I took a look at PETS and I was surprised at how good it looks on both the daily and weekly. Although on the daily it seems to be indicating a pullback of some sort having recently touched the top channel line. It has been steadily trending up for sometime now and some consolidation is good for the next leg up which it should continue to do.
That last earnings report was terrific and their guidance is forecasting even better sales and a bigger customer base the remainder of this year and the upcoming qtr. I would be patient with this one if you don't already own it and look for an entry at around 10.25/10.40 area.
This is the type of situation I was talking about with options. Pretty basic stuff. The Dec. 12.50 calls are out of the money and kind of cheap. They closed yesterday at $.85 which coupled with the closing price of $10.71 yesterday = $11.56. Their $.96 out of the money, strike price of $12.50, and 3 1/2 months left till expiration. Plenty of room to grow. I like that play an it does seem that the stock will appreciate in value over that period of time. Personally I would make that play on both the stock, short term swing after a pullback, and the option also after the pullback but don't wait to long on the option as time is your enemy with them. I like the option play here better that the stock. Out of the money, $.85 per share or $85 to control 100 shares, great earnings report last time, definitely trending up, great guidance for next qtr. and remaining year. For around $850 + comm. you could control a 1000 shares, 10 contracts, in a very good r/r situation. I'll be watching this one.

[New-born baby]

SKi,
Nice option call. Now some questions:
$12.50 calls + .85 cost=$13.35 to break even on the stock.
Now the price of the option will increase with the uptrending stock (I don't know what the delta is), but that would increase in price, too.

The question: would you expect to be calling the stock, or are you simply looking for the increase in option price to profit?
Thanks!

And here's a chart so others can see: has been very bullish! Nice formations.
http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/9177/chart13nr.th.png (http://img120.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13nr.png)

[mystiky]

trying to see when is a good time to short CPTV and NGS - they are running up on the IBD numbers but so overbought here!

And also, SPIR will probably pop alot today, but it has always retraced....

thanks!

[spikefader]

Nice options discussion going. Ski is right on the money imho when he suggests waiting for a pullback to 10.25. That's how I'd play it. It's an agressive play, but the chart is looking for the 5th.

And just for the assistance of newbies, (and I haven't looked to see the options volume with PETS), options market-makers can be very tough and somewhat sneaky and manipulative with low volume stocks. I've had situations where I've had in the money current month puts and stock price has dropped over 10% yet the puts barely moved in my favor. Much depends on the time to expiration, volume of the stock and the options, the type of price action involved (i.e fast drop or spike on light stock volume, or steady heavy vol sell off) how long it stays where you are targeting, and the fear by those selling the options to you. Supply, demand, and fear all play an integral role.

And perhaps by understanding the intricacies of options one can steer clear of the dangers. But study hard people; options are an entirely different animal. Paper trade them for a while, and be realistic about whether your price really would have been filled. In fact, when papertrading them, take the ask price and sell at the bid price, and if after a bunch of options trades you've proven to yourself that you can make money, then you're on to something. And I'd stick with one or two contracts for a while. Things get mighty emotional when you've got a large handful of them and you're stuck holding the bag.

[spikefader]

PETS chart:

http://img343.imageshack.us/img343/4273/petsaug167vx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Ski, ya still in MAIN?

MAIN been on a tear!!

[skiracer]

MAIN been on a tear!!

Been out of it from when it was about 3.25 I think or somewhere near that range. I don't know what has been going on with it but at this point is would have been a double. I have been watching it and didn't do a thing with it. Great fundamental numbers though.

[Runner]

slop chart of main
http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/9582/main8zu.th.png (http://img3.imageshack.us/my.php?image=main8zu.png)

[skiracer]

Still stalking SNAK and PETS. I'm rethinking my strategy on SNAK and will enter the trade on the next decent pullback. Doesn't look like it will get back to 5.10 area an if it keeps the momentum of today then this might be the entry point. Certainly didn't exhibit any weakness over the last three or four days in this recent consolidation of the markets. I wouldn't take today's small bounce as enough volume or strength to merit an entry an was probably just traders who were tired of waiting, impatient souls who had to buy it or do something, anything with their money. I don't want to be classified as part of that group.

PETS is getting to where I think it will have consolidated enough to make the play. I thought originally that 10.25 to 10.45 was going to be the bottom but looking back at the daily chart and Spike's take on it I see Spike's bottom of 10 area as a more realistic point. Take a look at the daily. Anyway the options took a hit of -.25, the first day I posted on it after Lye brought it to our attention, from the previous day's close of .85 to close at .60 bid on a drop in the stocks price of .15 cents from 10.71 to 10.56. Today the stock closed at 10.26, a drop of .30 or .15 more than the previous days drop of .15 but the option closed at .55 bid or just a .05 drop on the .30 drop in the stocks price. So the stock dropped more today than the previous day but the option only dropped .05 as compared to .25 the previous day on less of a drop in the stocks price. Do you see what I think I am getting at proportionally. The option dropped less today on a larger drop in the stocks price than it did yesterday on a smaller drop in the stocks price. Just an observation but worthwhile noting. I've still got the fever for the stock and the option but am going to remained composed and patient and wait it out for the lowest entry possible. I still am very confident that this is only a consolidation of recent gains and that the fundamentals of the stock are still great and will merit a price of $15.50 to 16.75 range.
Also look at the volume coming into the stock, the money flow, A/D line, OBV line, and MACD remain well above their 0 lines on the daily. Just waiting for the targetted entry point for the option and the stock. Honestly like the Dec. 12.50 call option moreso than the stock from here but I do believe both will do well from here.

http://img351.imageshack.us/img351/9764/pets9wl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

BTW nice stock Lye.

[Runner]

Hey ski, what is your take on PETS weekly chart?

Here is what I see from a intra day perspective

Overlapping support
60 min chart 5ma 10.21
15 min chart 5ma 10.24 15ma 10.22
5 min chart 5 ma 10.26 15ma 10.24
I like the overlapping support in the 10.20-10.26 area.

Overlapping resistance:
60 min 15ma 10.52
15 min 200ma 10.33 ( expect volume increase in this area.)
5 min 200 ma 10.56

Watch the 10.50-10.56 area if price moves near it. I expect increase in volatility near the 200 hr ma.

I also see a fractured set up when looking at my different time frames. I like the 3 lane highway like the one VPHM just put in. This set up is the most forgiving. Simple my STO’s all heading up. On PETS the 5 min is heading down from the 80 band, but never know when looking at different time frames things could change real quickly.

[skiracer]

Runner,
The weekly isn't to much different from the daily but the daily shows a clearer picture an a better breakdown of what's been going on with the stock. That's why I used it instead of the weekly, but I rely more on the weekly for decision making if it's not a quick intraday daytrade. I don't use alot of the smaller minute charts but use the 15 min. almost exclusively for intraday. I do agree with you on the overlaps of the ma's in the 10.20/10.26 area and my own feelings are it's near a bottom for the time being. As far as resistance I see it more in the 10.60 to 10.70 range which is close to what you see, but with the smaller time frames it can change very quickly. Below is my take on the weekly which is very similar to what I see in the daily. I also included a tidbit from MSN Money about the earnings an outlook for the next qtr. Like you I'm more of a TA guy but when the earnings and guidance outlook are this good going out it makes me feel more secure in the play. That's why I think the Dec 12.50 call is a decent play. Everything looks good for continued increases in building client base, sales, an earnings.
http://img351.imageshack.us/img351/531/pets28su.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img351.imageshack.us/img351/5733/pets34oa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

SKI, was not today a channel long on PETS?

[Runner]

Oh I just wanted to thank ya ski for posting large charts. I now find it much easier to do this when I’m surfing through my hundreds of charts per night. Well maybe not hundreds..lol

[skiracer]

Runner,
I bought the stock today right near the low of the day. My entry was at 9.55. I also placed a limit order for the Dec. 12.50 calls at $.40. The options today were bid at .40 and asked .65 when it hit the low of the day at 9.50. The asked price went from .60 to .85 as the stock moved up and that specific call didn't make a trade all day. 0 volume on the 12.50 call today. I was watching it all day and couldn't believe it went that low. The peculiar thing was that the option really didn't follow the stock down as much as the stock dropped proportionally. The option closed today at bid .40 and ask .85. I'm sitting comfortably at 9.55. I'd be happy to see it go back to 10.71 where it was when Lyehopper first mentioned it but I really think it will go much higher. I still like the Dec. 12.50 call and think that it's a better play than the stock with almost 120 days until expiration if you can get it at the right price. I would buy the option tomorrow at .50 if I could get it at that but I think the specialist knows or feels that the stock is a pretty good bet to go up from here. Definitely hit the channel long today which is a good thing for the long entry. Much lower than what either Spike or I thought but I'll take it.

[skiracer]

Food for thought:

http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/8849/morpheus9qq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/2559/morpheus22db.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img376.imageshack.us/img376/9380/morpheus31fa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This is an example of a perfectly planned strategy, setup, entry, and exit, plus the gain wasn't bad either. These guys do this every week.

http://img367.imageshack.us/img367/34/morpheus45gl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img367.imageshack.us/img367/8625/morpheus57sc.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

MAIN been on a tear!!http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/3778/main2pg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Hey Ski thanks for the info on MAIN. The chart really looks good for a low price stock.

Back into stalk mode on MAIN!

[skiracer]

Runner,
It's been on my list since I first mentioned it an owned it but I see it everyday and watched it go up but never once did I think to re-enter. Next thing you know it's over 6 and you brought it back to my attention. I haven't looked at it's chart in awhile but it is beginning to look good. Today's low just touched 5.50 which was where it was at 5 days ago just before it went over 6. There was a little gap up right there. I was just looking at the 15 min. chart. If it fills that gap or lower I think it might be a worthwhile play. Boy the daily and the weekly also look pretty good. I put the RAFF channels on the daily an it looks like it hits the lower channel right at 5.50. Check it out. It needed to consolidate some of these recent gains. If it hits that lower channel at 5.50 would that be a channel long play at that point?

[Runner]

Ski, I saw the same thing on the 15 min chart. I've got this one on my priority list now. The weekly looks like it put in a market structure high and in fact today confirmed my thinking. I did not trade this one but had it saved in one of my files. I happened to stumble across it the other day and thought about Ski. I remember we had a little dialogue about good old MAIN. I think it was a good while back.

Ski,
Looking at the 60 min chart it appears buyers did not step in on the C wave. So my thinking is that it may need to correct some more. I like MAIN better under 5.00, but at this point and in the wild market who knows. Not sure about the 5.50 channel long. Current chart does not meet my buying criteria.

[skiracer]

Do you think it could go under 5? That would be a steal in my opinion.

[Runner]

Do you think it could go under 5? That would be a steal in my opinion.

Yes, I think it is possible, but who knows? Here is my take on it. Simple chart

http://img379.imageshack.us/img379/6937/main0qm.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Not sure on the count Ski! This is a 5yr chart of MAIN

http://img114.echo.cx/img114/1820/main3nq.png (http://www.imageshack.us)


Ski, this is why sometimes looking back in time can help out. Watch out if MAIN clears the BLUE LINE!!!


http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/2285/main4zu.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Real nice charts Runner. What price is the blue line set at. Would you call that around 7 area?

[skiracer]

Who are you?

[Karel]

Who are you?
Sorry skiracer, but as that person was banned (by $$$Mr.Market$$$), we will probably never know the answer to that question.

Regards,

Karel

[Lyehopper]

Sorry skiracer, but as that person was banned (by $$$Mr.Market$$$), we will probably never know the answer to that question.

Regards,

Karel

Hey Ernie, Want me to take a couple of the "boys" over there and break a few limbs?

~Lye

[Thomrich]

Greetings Ski,

I have been patient watching SNAK,slowly raising my bid,it looks very strong to me.Could be another HANS in the making.Sooner or later its got to drop to support,right now it looks about 5.20 and rising.

One of these days Ill buy with a market order,so you guys can grab at support,Ill let you know when my patience has run out.

BTW that MAIN chart looks very tempting without even knowing what they do.

cordially Tom

[skiracer]

Thomrich,
I've been waiting on SNAK myself for a decent entry. MAIN is in the food and restaurant business. They also look good.
Currently holding PETS from 9.55. Waiting to get in on their Dec. 12.50 call options but haven't been able to get my entry price with them either. Be patient especially with this market as indecisive as it is right now. Good trading.

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

I post this with the hope of others learning from my folly.Watching SNAK today,had a bid in at 5.40,price held up all morning.Aroung lunch a surge,my emotions kicked in thinking this was the wedge break,thought I could get in at 5.70 with a market order.Filled at 5.85,price came back to 5.74 at close.
In hindsight I should have just bought around 5.30,now Im in,and looking at the chart,it hit the upper channel,and bounced right down.

To all looking to get in,I suspect support will now be tested in the low 5s.I like the chart,and these funds are in my IRa,so I will hold on like a pit bull.Emotion will kill profits every time.

cordially Tom

[skiracer]

Thomrich,
They'll do it to you everytime you give them a chance. Now that you own it from 5.85 your patience is really going to be tested. I don't think there will be a problem holding it if it does pullback somewhat and you could always add some to the postion to bring the entry down alittle.

http://img400.imageshack.us/img400/4909/snak5qv.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Do you think it could go under 5? That would be a steal in my opinion.

Ski,
looks like MAIN is under 5.00. The Restaurant group has been taking a nice beating as of lately. In fact it has fallen 7.79% since the beginning of Aug.

[billyjoe]

Skiracer,
A blast from the past. I just found a post of yours from about 18 months ago on a forum that will remain unnamed. It was referring to natural gas stocks, you mentioned NJR , a NG distribution stock. I think we've got a small window in which to cash in on nat. gas distribution stocks or even more promising, U.S. or Canadian nat. gas exploration and producers. Some that stand out are ATLS CHK and GMXR. They may appear somewhat extended, but a year from now we'll be kicking ourselves for hesitating. Any thoughts on this? Thanks ski.

billyjoe

p.s. wonder whatever happened to bruzcru ? would like to see him on Mr.Market's forum

[Websman]

I wonder if Ski is on vacation with IIC? He hasn't been on here since Aug 31.


Come back Ski...

[Runner]

I wonder if Ski is on vacation with IIC? He hasn't been on here since Aug 31.


Come back Ski...


Ya, where is SKI. I need some input on MAIN

[Runner]

This is exactly how I feel about the market in general right now. Cautious on the long side and except for SNAK and CMVT am looking for shorts and other breakdowns if they setup. Here's what the Swing Trader says:
http://img167.imageshack.us/img167/2512/swg17ke.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7954/secwct14tn.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7383/secwct29qa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img226.imageshack.us/img226/7473/secwct38at.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

These are all examples of bearish patterns and the last three are bear flags. That top one below the SPY daily chart, SCQ media index, is not an ascending triangle an although not exactly bearish could fool you into thinking that.


CMVT has been doing well!

[Runner]

Nice range pop on CMVT

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/4102/cmvt9vq.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

Still holding PETS?

[skiracer]

Lye,
Just laying back and reading and listening to the posts for awhile. Had a big computer malfunction an everything, except my handheld, was shut down for a couple of weeks from the end of August to Sept. 17. Just got everything back to normal. Had no backup whatsoever on anything on my harddrives and lost all of it. Had to reconfigure everything new to the new hard drive. Talk about a pain in the ass.

I'm holding 20 of the Dec. 12.50 call contracts on PETS. I'm averaged in at .69. Thought it was going to go off on this past Tuesday but it stalled and had a big drop on Wed on bigger volume. Recouped a big part of the drop yesterday and the channel on the daily chart looks like it is coming up to a channel long.

I got alittle anxious on the first buy on the options and bought the first 10 contracts at .85 an it immediately fell to around the .40/.45 range right after I bought them. I bought another 10 contracts at .55 and am holding. I think it showed decent strength this week bouncing back after the drop on Wednesday. Still stalking SNAK and waiting for it to make up it's mind on what it wants to do.

[New-born baby]

Lye,
Just laying back and reading and listening to the posts for awhile. Had a big computer malfunction an everything, except my handheld, was shut down for a couple of weeks from the end of August to Sept. 17. Just got everything back to normal. Had no backup whatsoever on anything on my harddrives and lost all of it. Had to reconfigure everything new to the new hard drive. Talk about a pain in the ass.

I'm holding 20 of the Dec. 12.50 call contracts on PETS. I'm averaged in at .69. Thought it was going to go off on this past Tuesday but it stalled and had a big drop on Wed on bigger volume. Recouped a big part of the drop yesterday and the channel on the daily chart looks like it is coming up to a channel long.

I got alittle anxious on the first buy on the options and bought the first 10 contracts at .85 an it immediately fell to around the .40/.45 range right after I bought them. I bought another 10 contracts at .55 and am holding. I think it showed decent strength this week bouncing back after the drop on Wednesday. Still stalking SNAK and waiting for it to make up it's mind on what it wants to do.

Ski,
That hand held--a quote tracker? Do you like it? Would you buy another? What advice have you got for someone considering buying one?

What's your take on BMHC?

[skiracer]

Ski,
That hand held--a quote tracker? Do you like it? Would you buy another? What advice have you got for someone considering buying one?

What's your take on BMHC?

No, it's an ealyier Dell handheld that I had on my ISP broadband setup. It's outdated and isn't wireless which is the only way to go today. I'm looking at the new Blackberry's with eSignals Quotetracker program. Haven't bought it yet.
Regarding BMHC. I like it and think it will continue up but I wouldn't buy the stock. To pricey and to much money on the line to make a couple of thousand. Plenty of other good and lesser priced issues out there to play.
The options, out a few months, might be worth looking at. Something out of the money and with a strike of around 100/105 might be worthwhile speculating with.

[skiracer]

http://img353.imageshack.us/img353/7826/lens4wq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Been watching this one and lost track of it for a few weeks with my systems being down. Some insiders have been buying big chunks recently.

[skiracer]

There might be a few shorting opportunities in the oil patch this coming week if Rita doesn't live up to expectations.

http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/5159/oil18bo.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/7315/oil26mw.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/979/oil33te.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img390.imageshack.us/img390/1707/oil49lz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

LENS could get interesting if it gets out of the trading range.

[skiracer]

Something is going on there. That's not alot of money or shares but these trading groups don't throw their money around or away unless there is a good reason to do so. It's so easy to pick up 10,000 shares of something like this and if it goes up .25 to 1.00 or so it makes a nice payday. Purely speculative though.

[Runner]

Ski, this pink line shows money flowing into LENS... Wonder if this thing is about to pop big time???

http://img192.imageshack.us/img192/1800/lens5bc.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
Are you running TC2000 or TNet? The pink line is a money flow line like the Chalkin Money Flow or something else. I almost bought it today but have this thing with buying on Fridays just before the weekend. I'll be looking at this one on Monday. The pink line is definitely tracking up bigtime.

[thebign1]

Hey Guys, Becareful with LENS......Stenzrob posted this one a year & a half ago. Check out Stenzrob's thread for details.
Regards, Norm

[skiracer]

theBign1,

I'm looking at the weekly chart and thinking that this one is ready to start making a move up the right side of it's cup. The driving force here is that there is alot of insider money and money in general flowing into the stock at this time. Purely speculative situation but the kind of speculative position that can become a big gainer moreso than a big loser from this point. Usually something going on when the insider money starts flowing into the stock after it has bottomed out like LENS. Thanks for the info an I always try to be as careful as possible under the circumstances I'm working with.

[skiracer]

http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/7859/energy17hk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6968/energy26ob.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/6789/energy39ho.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/7513/energy41ps.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Runner,
Are you running TC2000 or TNet? The pink line is a money flow line like the Chalkin Money Flow or something else. I almost bought it today but have this thing with buying on Fridays just before the weekend. I'll be looking at this one on Monday. The pink line is definitely tracking up bigtime.


Ski, I still got stockcharts, but have been playing with tc-2005. I like the layout a lot better then stockcharts. I’m thinking about changing to tc net. My back fill from Medved has been messing up lately. Not sure what the heck is going on, but it has been a pain in the butt.

I agree with your report about energy being a possible short play. I’m seeing a whole bunch of oil stocks that have popped up in my short scan this weekend.

[skiracer]

I've been using Stockcharts for quite awhile now but I used TC2000 for quite some time before that. I always liked them and they are cheaper but Stockcharts does give some things that TC2000 doesn't like the point and figure charts. Everytime I see one of your charts it reminds me of them. They are a good charting service plus their watchlists are real good.
I think we could see oil dropping alittle from here. I would think that any oil related stock could provide a good short term shorting opportunity if it does go that way. Have to keep a close eye of which way the wind blows tomorrow morning.

[skiracer]

http://img298.imageshack.us/img298/9168/swtdr12ks.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
I don't think today was anything more than a dead cat bounce. The markets have been in a funk of late and there really hasn't been anything that has happenned to make for a true rally at this time. That 62% fib retracement at 123.10 and the 50 dma on the SPY will act as a strong resistance line tomorrow an it will take some doing to bust through that and hold it. I've always found that after short periods of trending down that the markets will respond with a bounce. I like to watch for these things an have noticed that Thursdays always seem to be a good day for dead cat bounces. Mostly because it gives the retail traders some optimism and draws their money into the trap for Friday morning when everyone will be feeling great after Thursdays gain. Friday morning will start off strong and then the bottom falls out as the hedgies and momo guys suck off their gains selling into the mornings strength. Of late it's been one step forward and then two steps backward.
Regarding BHMC, TOL, KBH or any of the other homebuilders, just took them as an example because they had a pretty good day today, but would any of you buy them tomorrow for a short term trade at todays closing prices?
The paragraph at the top isn't mine and came from Briefing.com's Swingtrader column tonight. Here are 3 picks, strictly for daytrades, tomorrow. You really have to be glued to the screen to play these tomorrow otherwise you could easily get caught in the switch.
http://img298.imageshack.us/img298/4701/swtdr24vq.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img298.imageshack.us/img298/9038/swtdr39xz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img298.imageshack.us/img298/6141/swtdr41ok.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Bought another 2000 shares of SNAK today between $4.90 and 5.00. I'm now averaged down around $5.05. To be honest I'm amazed that it has pulled back to this level from it's recent highs above 6.

[New-born baby]

Bought another 2000 shares of SNAK today between $4.90 and 5.00. I'm now averaged down around $5.05. To be honest I'm amazed that it has pulled back to this level from it's recent highs above 6.

Ski,
I noted yesterday that she bounced off the $4.91 fib ($4.86 lod). You may have pulled off a coup here.

[skiracer]

NBB,
I could use one. Lately I haven't been able to hit the floor if I fell out of bed. I do like the stock and the the price falling to this level is surprising to me. I can't see anything wrong with the stock and except for profit taking on the recent run up I would expect it to climb back to above $6. After yesterdays buy I now have a rather large position in it. Funny but $4.83 was my 7% loss exit price an as I sat watching it fall yesterday morning I was real close to pulling the trigger on bailing and then it turned and started back up. In my exhuberance I added to my position.

[Runner]

Very good job SKI. I think your positioned very well with SNAK. I like the ABC corrective wave. Almost a text book set up. I hope your rewarded nicely for your efforts!!

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/5923/snak7ix.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Very good job SKI. I think your positioned very well with SNAK. I like the ABC corrective wave. Almost a text book set up. I hope your rewarded nicely for your efforts!!

http://img165.imageshack.us/img165/5923/snak7ix.png (http://imageshack.us)
Runner,
Thanks for the support. I could use a good one.

[Runner]

Nice pop in SNAK today Ski!!!!

[skiracer]

just trying to see if I got the avatar loaded.

[skiracer]

And The Yankees Winnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's Go Yankees!!!!!!!!

[dmk112]

And The Yankees Winnnnnnnnnn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's Go Yankees!!!!!!!!


Yea!!! eeehhh yoooooo !!

[skiracer]

Yea!!! eeehhh yoooooo !!
DMK112,
I was hoping that last post would bring another fan or two out of the woodwork. You must have watched that game last night huh? Exciting season and playoffs so far. To bad for Boston though getting swept by Chicago. Some defending champions. Couldn't win the division and couldn't defend their title and get past the initial playoff series. I was only hoping
Schilling would get a chance to pitch and get blown out to end it for them. You know there are a few loyal Red Sox fans up there in New England who post here and are true Yankee haters. Well they still have last year to gloat over but this is the PRESENT!
THE YANKEES WINNNNNNN!!!!!!! THE YANKEES WINNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
GO YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[skiracer]

I;ve been holding the Dec. 12.50 calls on Pets for about a 5 weeks. They report on Oct. 24 an everything is pointing to a decent report. The stock has been up an down between 10 and 11.25 but has kind of held it's own around 10.40/10.60 but no breakout yet. Any thoughts on this chart and pattern.
http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/7177/pets7ve.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

DMK112,
I was hoping that last post would bring another fan or two out of the woodwork. You must have watched that game last night huh? Exciting season and playoffs so far. To bad for Boston though getting swept by Chicago. Some defending champions. Couldn't win the division and couldn't defend their title and get past the initial playoff series. I was only hoping
Schilling would get a chance to pitch and get blown out to end it for them. You know there are a few loyal Red Sox fans up there in New England who post here and are true Yankee haters. Well they still have last year to gloat over but this is the PRESENT!
THE YANKEES WINNNNNNN!!!!!!! THE YANKEES WINNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!
GO YANKEES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Well, officially A-ROD sucks! Grounds out for a double play in the 9th I was so pissed, they need to trade him.

[skiracer]

Well, officially A-ROD sucks! Grounds out for a double play in the 9th I was so pissed, they need to trade him.
DMK112,
I got back to you on the POTW thread by mistake.

[skiracer]

Just an update on Pets. Any thoughts?
http://img288.imageshack.us/img288/193/pets19ls.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Ski, here is a quick look at the weekly group chart. Appears that it is trying to bounce off a little support area and thus far is working. Only 9 stocks that make up the group. Group chart is currently down 4.73% from 07/29. Top performers lately has been OCR-MHS-PETS.

PETS- bumping up against resistance
OCR-just hit new highs a few weeks ago. Nice looking trend
WAG- recently broke down and trying to recover some.
PSMT- running sideways in a range last 18 weeks
RAD- breaking down
LDG- recently hit highs and pulling back some.
MHS- seems to be trying to put in a base
CVS- break down
ECMV-

http://img434.imageshack.us/img434/4149/drugstores9cv.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here is a Comparison chart between PETS and OCR. The purple line is OCR. This is a daily chart

http://img414.imageshack.us/img414/7601/pets9jp.png (http://imageshack.us)

Here some numbers if you can figure then out. EPS percent change latest year:

LDG 71
PETS 48
RAD 26
WAG 15
MHS 13
CVS 7
OCR -6

[New-born baby]

I;ve been holding the Dec. 12.50 calls on Pets for about a 5 weeks. They report on Oct. 24 an everything is pointing to a decent report. The stock has been up an down between 10 and 11.25 but has kind of held it's own around 10.40/10.60 but no breakout yet. Any thoughts on this chart and pattern.

Ski,
The PnF target for PETS is $16.80 or so. That's a nice bump for current levels. The weekly chart looks much prettier than the daily. Has met, as Runner posted, a lot of overhead resistance. Somebody or some institution has been selling her down every time she moves up. The daily shows a complex head and shoulders pattern--heavier volume on the left shoulders than the right, two heads, three shoulders on each side.

Some areas of concern for me:
1. This sector has fallen since July 29 a whopping 5%. Certainly not a leading sector at this time.
2. Cup with handles often fail in bearish market conditions (like we have at this time).
3. Bearish markets often 'sell the news'--even if the news is incredibly good.
4. Who is selling PETS down every time it moves up? The individual investor is too small. It has to be a big boy. And will that big boy sell her down with good news?
5. If one goes long here, they are going long into a major moving average: the 50 day. Usually a no-no.
6. The last two days PETS has moved up on low volume: a bearish signal.
7. The $10 mark is quite strong support. She moved up over it today. I would say that Tuesday is quite critical, and will give you a signal whether PETS is going to move up or not. If PETS cannot hold the $10 line, I look for her to fall much lower. I would not want to own her below $9.70, because support is much thinner below that level.

My point is that the daily is quite choppy, and an explosion to the upside is not guaranteed by the chart. Your calls may very well turn out to be a winner, but perhaps some consideration should be taken for an alternate plan should plan A not pan out as expected.

Best wishes to you, Ski.

Here's the daily:
http://img306.imageshack.us/img306/4738/chart11xg.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Thanks guys. I'm still holding the Dec. 12.50 calls an last Thursday I bought some at $9.35. I was watching the screen and the stock was selling at around $9.25 to $9.30 range an I was thinking about what to do when I caught a news release on the MSN Money site that an analyst, Ethel Hill at Ladenburg Thalmann initiated the stock with a buy rating and a target of $14 over the next 12/15 months. The stock started to move up almost immediately an I took a half position in the stock. Still holding the stock and the options and do like it but have to agree with everything that NB said in his post. It seems everytime it starts to run someone starts selling off into the strength. It was up over 11.30 about 3 weeks ago and the Dec. 12.50 options hit around .85 bid and 1.00 asked but never held that level. Perplexing. The daily does look like crap but I like the weekly much better. Looks like a nice cup and handle and hit a channel long last week probably around Wed./Thurs. Right now I don't have an alternate plan if it goes the wrong way. I own 20 contracts at .69 average and 500 shares of the stock at $9.35. I was thinking I could be on shakey ground if I held onto the stock shares with the report coming on 10/25. Right now I could sell the stock with almost $500 profit at todays close and buy the Dec. 10.00 puts for somewhere between .60 bid and .90 asked which would limit my downside if the report was not up to par. Or I could just hold what I have and buy the puts as insurance tomorrow and ride it out until the report. Like NB said in this type of market even a good report might not mean anything. What would you guys do? The calls were up .05 today on 7 contracts. The has been some interest in the calls over the last week with about 300 contracts traded.

[New-born baby]

Thanks guys. I'm still holding the Dec. 12.50 calls an last Thursday I bought some at $9.35. I was watching the screen and the stock was selling at around $9.25 to $9.30 range an I was thinking about what to do when I caught a news release on the MSN Money site that an analyst, Ethel Hill at Ladenburg Thalmann initiated the stock with a buy rating and a target of $14 over the next 12/15 months. The stock started to move up almost immediately an I took a half position in the stock. Still holding the stock and the options and do like it but have to agree with everything that NB said in his post. It seems everytime it starts to run someone starts selling off into the strength. It was up over 11.30 about 3 weeks ago and the Dec. 12.50 options hit around .85 bid and 1.00 asked but never held that level. Perplexing. The daily does look like crap but I like the weekly much better. Looks like a nice cup and handle and hit a channel long last week probably around Wed./Thurs. Right now I don't have an alternate plan if it goes the wrong way. I own 20 contracts at .69 average and 500 shares of the stock at $9.35. I was thinking I could be on shakey ground if I held onto the stock shares with the report coming on 10/25. Right now I could sell the stock with almost $500 profit at todays close and buy the Dec. 10.00 puts for somewhere between .60 bid and .90 asked which would limit my downside if the report was not up to par. Or I could just hold what I have and buy the puts as insurance tomorrow and ride it out until the report. Like NB said in this type of market even a good report might not mean anything. What would you guys do? The calls were up .05 today on 7 contracts. The has been some interest in the calls over the last week with about 300 contracts traded.

Okay, if I read your post correctly, you are up $500 on the stock, and down about $800 on the options. Objective: to get out of this pinch without any loss. Personally, I have no confidence in this stock via reading the daily, and wouldn't want to trade it myself. So I wouldn't want to stick around. I would just want out.

Plan A: if the stock moves up at all tomorrow, say $.35, that's another $150 to the good on your shares. That also moves up the Dec calls a little bit, and you might be able to cash out on the even.

Plan B: I always figure that if I can't make money here, I can make it somewhere else. I seek to find a better play and take as few lumps here that I have to, but I sure don't want to be a bag holder. Losing $300 is better than losing $1500, or more . . . .

Plan C: When we know which direction for sure: if not long, then short. Should $9.70 fail I'd jump on the bandwagon and short her down. At least check the option chain and perhaps sell a covered put, or sell the Jan 06 calls and take the free money to cover your losses.

Reminder: the PnF chart says it should move up to $16.80 or so. But
I just don't believe it.

Lastly, PETS has been up three days in a row. Check the chart and see how many times PETS has been up four days in a row . . . .







That's right: only twice in the last six months. And that was when PETS was on the move up. So I would expect a down day on Tuesday.

[spikefader]

Here's my read on it ski. I really like it long while Thursday's low holds. That's the weekly channel long you spotted. I think you'll get a pink b up to price resistance (or it could have done the 'b''c' and the green channel long coincides with a c long and red 'a' completion. It's also right at vol by price support and could pop from this area nicely. Forget about how many up 4 up days it's had in a row (with respect); it's at a very key area here, and focus on the chart as it is presenting itself to you. I think it's ready to move up to 12.50 where it will have a shot at the title. That volume is very nice, as is the money flow. On the daily, there is no channel resistance until 11.00ish, and I'd give it every chance to bust it if it were me. Good luck with it.

http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/3946/petsoct189jx.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Thanks for your take on it guys. It's always interesting to get a few other points of view on these things. In this case two almost completely opposite views from NB and Spike. I know I'm prejudiced but still emotionally rationale and agree more with Spike's take on it as I really like the stock and although when looking back on it over the course of the last 5 weeks or so I do feel that I paid too much for the options and could have gotten them much cheaper if I had exercised more patience at the time of initial entry but then they would have skyrocketed for sure. Initially I liked the chart and what was going on with the stock an bought the options to have a position in what I thought was going to go off and didn't have to put alot of money up front to control a decent amount of shares. It didn't go the way I thought it would as fast as I thought it would so I waited it out to see what would develope since I didn't have that much money at risk. Spike's take is what I've felt about the weekly chart all along an is what seems to be developing now. I really like the channel long setup from last week and that signal is what is making me feel more comfortable being in it now. After last week I now have more money at risk an am somewhat more concerned because of that but feel more comfortable with the realization that Spike sees a decent chance for some light at the end of the tunnel. Thanks again for your takes on it. All the years I've been doing this I never really got into the Elliot Wave Theory thing with the 5 waves and ABC corrections. I really have to get more into that in developing my analysis base. Spike, what time zone are you in. Get some sleep buddy. That last post was 3:19 am. Thanks again guys.

[New-born baby]

Ski,
I for sure want you to profit from this (and every) trade you make. Spike is almost always right. What I do like about your question and our answers is that we can now watch PETS and see how it plays out, and hopefully learn something in the process. Like you, I don't have the Elliott skills down, and I think they take a little more than a causal perusal to pick up. At least that's why I haven't acquired them as of yet. Perhaps that is where I need to spend some time very soon.

You have DEC calls. Spike was right to look at the weekly chart instead of the daily. I was thinking too short term. The announcement is the 24th of Oct, three trading days away. December is two full months. One needs to trade off of a chart that is 8-10 times longer than his expected hold time. Spike chose the correct chart; I was thinking too shortterm--the next three days.

Spike, feel free to correct my thoughts here. Your comments are welcome and I (hopefully) am not too pig-headed to take correction. After all, on MM's forum, "its all good." :D (A principle that I wholly endorse).

[skiracer]

NB,
Here's a site I found that offers a free 4 part course on Elliot Wave Theory and Fibronacci Retracement and how they interplay with one another. Very thorough an I just started it the other night. You move at your own pace and takes the beginner from the start through it all. Perfect for the beginner to pick up on Elliot Wave Theory. www.worldcupadvisor.com/wcu.asp. No need to explain yourself. I know your only thinking positive thoughts and praying for us all to go good.

[dmk112]

Ski, may be to your interest....

http://img477.imageshack.us/img477/3189/petshs6bo.png

[skiracer]

DMK,
Always appreciate anyone keeping an eye out for me. Thanks. I've been holding these Dec. 12.50 call options for 6 wks. now and PETS reports this coming monday morning at 8 am. That chart is a week past and the stock has shown some strength since then although on lower volume. Also own the stock from around 9.35 so I'm up 1 point on the 500 shares right now. Up again today on lower volume in a bad market. I'm dying to see what the report is on Monday. So I'm holding for the time being. Thanks for looking out and watching my back though an I always give these things due consideration. Thanks again.

[New-born baby]

NB,
Here's a site I found that offers a free 4 part course on Elliot Wave Theory and Fibronacci Retracement and how they interplay with one another. Very thorough an I just started it the other night. You move at your own pace and takes the beginner from the start through it all. Perfect for the beginner to pick up on Elliot Wave Theory. www.worldcupadvisor.com/wcu.asp. No need to explain yourself. I know your only thinking positive thoughts and praying for us all to go good.

Ski,
That was might kind of you to give me this link. I'll use it! Thank you.

[skiracer]

NB,
Did you try it yet. I'm going through the videos myself. Thought it was real good, especially for the novice at Elliot Wave Theory.

[dmk112]

No prob bob. I mean ski. :D

[Gatorman]

NB,
Did you try it yet. I'm going through the videos myself. Thought it was real good, especially for the novice at Elliot Wave Theory.
Ski:
Am going thru the videos. They are well presented and highly instructive. Appreciate the link.

[skiracer]

Gatorman,
That's great. Glad it's helping you out. I'm not up at all on the Elliot Wave Theory stuff so I'm a novice trying to educate myself about the concepts of the theory behind it. I happened on the site by chance and thought it would be good to share it here. We'll all be Elliot Wave technicians after these videos. LOL. Good luck.

[billyjoe]

This is so technical. If these guys (instructors) are correct , they undoubtedly are multi-millionaires independent of any monies made teaching and distributing their materials . Wouldn't you agree? If not , this is all speculation and they have an out. They seem to have two outcomes for every scenario , if X happens it will lead to a positive result. But if Y happens it will lead to a negatve results. Either way they are correct. That's why I question TA. Show me percentages and not after the fact. I'm a doubting Thomas . Mr. Market does it. That's what attracted me to this site.

billyjoe

[spikefader]

This is so technical...
billyjoeYes, it sure is. Which is why I abbreviated my EW to 12345abc!! hehe.

....If these guys (instructors) are correct , they undoubtedly are multi-millionaires independent of any monies made teaching and distributing their materials . Wouldn't you agree? ...
billyjoeNo billyjoe; it still comes down to this: EW is just another tool in the world of TA. It is not a perfect system, and there is a LOT of intuition involved in timing entries. What may look like a perfect EW count may turn out to be something different and EWers modify the count as needed. EWing is no different than any other TA tool. It still requires a trader applying great r/r and being disciplined. Without those 2 and you'll go broke. With them, you have an edge.

....They seem to have two outcomes for every scenario...Either way they are correct. That's why I question TA. Show me percentages and not after the fact. I'm a doubting Thomas . Mr. Market does it. That's what attracted me to this site.

billyjoe
It's not so much either way they are correct, but EWing (and any TA method for that matter) is about being fluid and adaptive, and integrating that fluidity into your trading plan. EW is just another way to identify potential setups, based on unique patterns of human behavior and cyclicality. The 12345abc move occurs very very often in the market, and it's worth using IMO.

But it boils down to this: EW simply spots areas where you have a reason to enter a trade, and you add a downside plan if you are wrong, and an upside plan if you are right. You can question all TA in your own mind, but it's not the TA tool that is the problem; it is the person using that tool, and how well they use it. "It's a poor carpenter who blames his tools".

There is no perfect TA tool, and anybody trying to sell one is a shyster!

Show me people/sites that can teach real solid trading principles, integrated with accountability and control, and discipline and sound money management and risk/reward and I'll endorse those people as clever traders.

[billyjoe]

Spike,
I agree that the key is to determine what controls human behavior and the cyclicality of that behavior. Being in retail sales for 26 years with direct contact with the consumer , I often wondered why a product that stayed on the shelf untouched for weeks would suddenly sell like hotcakes for no apparant reason. Was it sunny weather, a change in barometric pressure , a news story that attracted customers ? Once I stocked a perennial plant that Martha Stewart was touting on her show and magazine for months. The result ? Nobody knew what it was or even requested it. They were dumped. I think someone will figure it out someday , maybe the Fibonacci and Elliot Wave boys will be the ones.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

I'm not sure I understand the point that either of you are trying to get across. Could you explain please what it is? Is it about the site I posted on or just about EWT and TA in general?

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I'm a skeptic by nature . What I'm reading into Fibonacci and Elliot Wave Theorists is this : here's how it is done , if you're unsuccessful you've made a mistake because the Waves are always correct . Only a philanthropist on the scale of a Mother Theresa or Spike would give away valuable free information without expecting a return much greater , yet why would anyone who's such an expert need any $$. They would have so much by using their technical knowledge for gain already. I'm sure a taste of the free information leads to advanced learning seminars etc. that cost quite a bit. Give me picks in advance and let me know the success rate and I'll change my tune. Anyone out there post ten picks based on TA and we'll all be able to see the results. Mr. Market does it with over an 80% success rate. Why can't anyone else?
I'm not trying to make enemies just start a discussion. Everybody on this forum is helpful and not trying to profit from his/her fellow poster , but I'm getting mail everyday that will make me rich .It hasn't happened yet.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Billyjoe,
That's only because you haven't invested in this toll bridge that I have for sale. I'll be sending you an everyone else here on the forum a prospectus on it soon. It's located in West Virginia in a coal mining region at the end of a highway they never completed but are getting ready to start up work again and finish next year once they get the union labor negoiations straightened out and the railway tracks laid. It's a great deal an I'm only letting a few friends an associates in on it.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Count me in especially if it connects Ohio and West Virginia . That's the kind of old school money making opportunity I'm talking about . How many shares are you allocating for each Mr.Market member ? Ray Long said he'd give me rights to his portion for a case of liquid refreshment.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Get him a case of that white lightning moonshine they're famous for down there.
I think Lyehopper has got a hidden still making it out back of his machine shop. You know the machine shop is only a front for his bootlegging operation.
Getting back to the original thought I don't think it is at all a bad idea to keep an open mind to anything which may increase your knowledge base an give you an edge to help move the odds in your favor in finding those winning setups. I'm not a fundamental strategist but I've studied MM's formula for picking stocks and have learned from it an a few other FA guys, including yourself, here at this site. Life is a continous learning experience and in specific areas like trading stocks anything that increases your knowledge base will have a positive effect over the long run.
In all the years that I have been doing this I never really got into the Elliot Wave Theory except for whatever tidbits I picked up on different forums here and there an in some readings on TA but I really never used it in my analysis or in finding setups until I came here and started reading the posts of several guys posting here an began to see the advantage of incorporating it into my own discipline. Now I see that it does give an additional insight to interpreting charts. It's not perfect and 100 % reliable but it does work. The same for Fibonacci lines. They are one of the most significant mathematical formulas that mankind has discovered and are found in every aspect of our lives in many forms. They work in technical analysis an are one of the most important aspects of charting. Every market technician uses them on a daily basis moreso than Elliot Waves or anything else. They have been found to be phenomenally accurate and almost exactly right on the money everytime when applied to predicting retracements an advances of stocks or when analyzing, tracking, and predicting the direction of the market indexes.
Regardless of your feelings towards TA as a discipline or strategy it would be taking away from yourself and compromising your edge not to have a decent understanding of both of these tools. If you can get a more comprehensive understanding of them for free it makes it that much more fulfilling. Personally I think that anyone in this would be much better off with at least a basic working understanding of both of these tools whether they use them in their everyday analysis or occassionally to help justify their strategys an analysis whether it be fundamentally or technically orientated. But no one is trying to push anything on anyone and the whole idea is to share ideas an opportunities with each other in the hope that we can increase our positive developement in trading and life in general. Now that I've finished this rant I'm going to sit down an take on some of that liquid refreshment myself.

[Websman]

I have an Uncle who's a bootlegger in Kentucky. If you ever need some good moonshine let me know.

[RL]

WAZZZSUP, Billy you can throw darts at waves I think

[skiracer]

Webs,
I knew that moonshine would get your attention. Not a post all day and the scent of that shine brought you out of the woodwork. I would love a taste of the real stuff. Was stationed in Fort Know for awhile and got my first good taste of the real thing down there. It's dangerous stuff.

[dmk112]

Is moonshine like absinth??

[Lyehopper]

Is moonshine like absinth??

Makes me absinth-minded....

[Runner]

Here is a book on EW that might be worth your time if your into learning EW
http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0471988499/qid=1129944130/sr=2-1/ref=pd_bbs_b_2_1/102-3545265-8366514?v=glance&s=books

[skiracer]

Thanks for the lead on the book Runner. Right now I'm concentrating on these free video seminars on EWT and Fibonacci lines on that site I posted.
Here is Morpheus Trading Groups take on last week with a one of the stocks they are stalking for a setup and entry this week. This is a play which they haven't entered yet but are looking at closely. It gives all the info which they provide subscribers on their setups.

http://img452.imageshack.us/img452/9013/morph18mw.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img476.imageshack.us/img476/9092/morph29ox.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

This is one of the setups they are looking at for this week: as you can see they have a trigger price, stop, target, and the reasoning behind the play. Personally I always follow the play exactly as they have it laid out if anyone is considering looking or entering this setup.

http://img487.imageshack.us/img487/6198/morph31qa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Hey Ski, nice info from your morpheus site. Makes me feel good that some of the experts feel the same way as I about the market. Still in cash and may stay here until earning season is over or at least some leadership finds direction. This whipsawing is for the birds and can be dangerous for ones account unless one allows much wiggle room. In this market if played I’d be using tighter stops, but oh well.

I like the set up he has posted on MOT. The volume looks great off your chart, but it still is lacking in direction as I see it in the candle. He has given it soon wiggle room to reach the trigger line and this is a pretty good trigger point IMO. Many try to get the bottom of a stock that has not changed direction and end up with a quick lose. I often think it is better to let the stock prove the direction then enter, but just me. Best with MOT

[Runner]

Having looked at MOT on my chart I see the set up triggered last Thursday buy a few pennies. Using EW would you think it just completed the ABC corrective wave and is currently in a B?

http://img412.imageshack.us/img412/6747/mot9ji.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Runner,
I'm not real familiar or good with determining the stages of Elliot Waves but I would have to agree with your chart on the wave count. Deron's trigger point is 21.26 so if I were going to go along with the trade and setup I would place a buy limit order in at that number with the stop as he stated. I haven't been posting any of his setups for whatever reasons, I stated how I felt about doing it in an earlier post, but since Spike asked my to include one or two of his setups I thought I would put up a couple. Again I won't touch this until it hits that trigger point which in that case would be an indication of a move up.

I'm in your camp on the markets an although am now in 3 stocks with long positions I will be very cautious with anything else right now. I'm keeping a close eye on the one's that I am currently holding and am waiting for Monday to see which way the wind blows.

It'll be interesting to see how MOT turns out this coming week.

[Runner]

I hear on that SKI. Best with your current positions. Having plotted my target on MOT I come up with 22.42 as being TGT 1. I’d like to see the b wave retrace a little more or even move sideways for a little. We know how much the market could care what I want... If target gets hit take profits and trail the rest with tight stop.

My target is plotted off 19.45 using fib 1.618 from 21.49
Key concern areas looking off chart 22.07 to target

[spikefader]

Thanks for including the MOT setup, ski. Good luck with it.
My humble and completely unrequested thoughts :D :
http://img470.imageshack.us/img470/2662/motoct234rt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Spike,
Actually one of the reasons I put it up was to get anyone's opinion on the setup which actually will not become a trade until it triggers at 21.26 if it ever gets to that number. Another point is that if after a couple of days of putting it up on his stalk sheet it doesn't materialize he will let it go and tell you that he is letting it go. So he doesn't wait to long for them to reach his trigger because then the circumstances change as you know. Anyway I was looking forward to your's, Runners, NB's an anyone else who wants to discuss how they see it. Always welcome and respect your opinion Spike an it would be hard to disagree with your take on it right now but with a touch or break of the lower channel it could prove to be a worthwhile setut but that might take a day or two to materialize. He might or might not wait it out before letting it go.
Because of the indecisiveness of the markets in general it is kind of hard to count on anything right now so we'll all have to wait it out to see which way the wind is going to blow for the time being.

[spikefader]

....will not become a trade until it triggers at 21.26 if it ever gets to that number...yep, I should have said good luck if it triggers and you take it.
..was looking forward to your's, Runners, NB's an anyone else who wants to discuss how they see it. Always welcome and respect your opinion Spike.....:D backatcha.
..because of the indecisiveness of the markets in general it is kind of hard to count on anything right now ...You've got that right. Indecisiveness in the market really is a downer ya know and it makes trading so much more choppy and difficult. It sure tests the patience and emotions. Good moves followed by full retraces will drive you nuts.

[dmk112]

I'm a bear on MOT. I actually missed the short on Friday morning, I had it on my short list. Here's what I see:

daily: http://img358.imageshack.us/img358/2495/motdaily1023054ny.png

intra: http://img358.imageshack.us/img358/6306/mot102305intradaybear4by.png

[skiracer]

DMK,
That sell point that you indicated on your chart. Was it the same channel short signal, same point, as the one on Spike's chart? Couldn't tell but looks like it was the same point. It would have been a good time to take it short at that intraday signal. So you think it will continue down from this price level? What would your target be from here an if you did short it tomorrow morning where would you place a stop on the trade.

[RL]

your all asking each other what Is going on? Just set back have a cold one and let your money ride MOT Is a winner.

[skiracer]

Ray,
Well in that case since we got the thumbs up from you Ray count me in tomorrow morning. Do we sound like a bunch of women sitting around in a sewing circle sharing gossip and talking through our asses. By the way TA could stand for tight asses. I'm with you Ray an I hope it does turn out to be a winner although I'll sit and watch it until it gets to that 21.26 level. My wife an I just had a couple of thick steaks on the grille and a couple of Yuengling Lagers with it. Now I'm ready for a glass or two of Port to take the edge off of the day while I sit back and watch the ballgame. Maybe she'll abuse me.

[RL]

your my kinda guy and your choice of lager could not be better. Where abouts do you live? I'm up In the Buffalo area and we started getting It little over a year ago LOVE IT. Don't let your bride take advantage of you.

[skiracer]

Ray,
I'm in Toms River, NJ. That's just about in the middle of the state an about 10 minutes from the ocean. We've had Yuengling Black and Tan and Yuengling Lager for as long as I can remember and now there is a Yuengling Light which I like but not as much as the lager. The black and tan is just a little to thick for me but the lager goes down real nice. That's what I usually keep stocked up in the refrigeratior. I was hoping she would or at least let her think she is.

[dmk112]

DMK,
That sell point that you indicated on your chart. Was it the same channel short signal, same point, as the one on Spike's chart? Couldn't tell but looks like it was the same point. It would have been a good time to take it short at that intraday signal. So you think it will continue down from this price level? What would your target be from here an if you did short it tomorrow morning where would you place a stop on the trade.


I'm not sure if it is the exact point since mine is a intraday chart. I am shorting there with the anticipation of the breakdown of the bear flag. The target using the measured move would be in the 16's but I'm going to target in 18.50 as it has some support there. If I shorted it tomorrow I would place a stop above the high of 21.29. But if you shorted right at the top of the trendline the R/R is much better.

[skiracer]

DMK,
What about your entry. Would you take it right at the open or wait for a different trigger point? Not trying to grill you but just curious about your setup. I'm not sure but I'm thinking this thing could go either way.

[dmk112]

DMK,
What about your entry. Would you take it right at the open or wait for a different trigger point? Not trying to grill you but just curious about your setup. I'm not sure but I'm thinking this thing could go either way.


I usually don't chase, so once I missed it, I either wait for a pullback to the trend line or move on. So to answer your question I would wait for the pullback, but that's just me. Some people would rather wait unitl that channel is broken (lower trend line) to take the trade.

It is true it can go either way but there is a higher probability it does go to the downside. If that resistance line is breached, the bear flag is invalidated, hence your stoploss if you're short.

[skiracer]

We've been looking at the daily chart on MOT an I don't know if anyone has looked at he weekly on it. The weekly gives a different picture as there is no channel short signal but the last candle for last week is a perfect doji. Even more indecisiveness. I wouldn't touch it until it breaks the trendline and hits 21.26 for a long, but if I were to give an opinion I like it to the upside. So much will depend on the market tomorrow morning. I really don't see a clear signal stating this thing is going down but it could and probably will if the markets head further down. Anyway nice imput on it today.

[dmk112]

You're right it does have to do alot with the market, especially with the Semi's. We'll see, but right now it has a bearish bias.

[RL]

I hit It with the dart at 20.14 watching closely?

[skiracer]

Good for you Ray. I'm still in the stalk mode waiting for that 21.26 breakout level. Ray you've got a nice gain going, are you watching it closely or have you placed a stop on it. It's showing strength but the market is up 151 so far today so that's carrying it along in it's rip tide to a large degree. Don't let those gains get away. You can always re-enter on any pullback.

[RL]

Ski thanks for your concern I'm ready to get out If It starts down I felt today should have been a bigger move.

[skiracer]

Ray,
Lighter than average volume today by 6 million shares. Not so much a real concern but would have been nicer to see a big volume day to validate some strength. Just a suggestion, but you could bring a stop up to around Fridays close of $20.65/20.70 range and see what tomorrow will bring. Big day today for the markets an it would be nice if tomorrow was a follow thru day or a light down day on lower volume or you could just watch it closely and see what the open brings. I was happy to see it go like it did today. I really think it will challenge the $23/24 levels. If I were to get in at $21.26 an it hit $23 I would bring a stop up real close and be happy with the 1.84 gain if I were to get stopped out at around $23 but that's just my own feelings about it. If I do make the trade I would be buying a full position,1000 shares, so that would be $1800 or so. I'd by real happy with that an if I didn't get stopped out then whatever it runs up to would be that much extra. But one thing for sure is that I wouldn't let to much of those gains get away, not in these markets. Last week we had a triple digit gain one day and gave a triple digit loss back the next day so you can't rely on anything right now. Good luck. Glad it turned out the way it did.

[skiracer]

Here's another setup from Morpheus along with their weekly report on the market.

http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/1555/mtg13hl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/7184/mtg22pp.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/4733/mtg37uk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Here is the setup. It's a short and as the last one on MOT all the specifics are listed as having to be in place to trigger the trade. Please feel free to give your take on the play whether you agree or disagree with the setup. But the reasoning behind your feelings would be a prerequisite just as they have provided all the specifics for their logic.
If anyone is thinking of taking this trade I would advise on using the same triggers and stops as are listed otherwise you're on your own which you are anyway. Nothing is written in stone. If the trade triggers I will be in it and will post on whatever stop or trailing stops are set as the trade developes.
http://img480.imageshack.us/img480/5639/mtg49wv.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Just an update on a couple of positions that I've been holding recently:

PETS reported today an it was a very good report. Above estimates and revenues up over 50% qtr. over qtr. Stock was up $1.15 today on about 3 times average volume. The position is up 1.80 points from my entry on the stock. The Dec. 12.50 calls actually lost .05 today to close at .35. 89 contracts traded on the calls today which amazes me with the stock being up 1.15 and the options losing .05.

SNAK up .15 to close at $5.04. I lost a few cents on the original position first time around but am in now from $4.45/4.50 range. So the position is up approx. .50.

ABAX reported this afternoon an it was a stellar report. .06 above concensus. Stock closed today at $14.46. I'm in at $13.10. The stock was up 1.41 to 15.87 in the after hours so tomorrow could be a breakout day for it.
Not a bad day but the markets being up 169 points today didn't hurt anyone. But PETS and ABAX did exactly what I thought they would do with the earnings. Every dog deserves a bone now and then.

[RL]

I'm out of your league on the number of shares have 500 but after your talk of 21.26 I'm going to sell CBI and put It In mot at that time.However I think It can run to 25 to 26 ? but will sell on 12/15 no mater where It Is at. Thanks again Ski.

[Lyehopper]

Hey, didn't I turn you onto PETS?

BTW... I'm holding (Dougs pick) IRIS too.... looking nice right now what's your take on it?

[skiracer]

Lye,
I did pick up PETS from one of your posts an so far it has turned out to be a decent trade. I'm waiting for those calls to get moving. Stock was up real good today on big volume and the calls dropped .05. I'm feeling real good about the stock going up to the 12.50 range and the calls should follow the move up in the stocks price 57 days left in the calls so there is room yet.
It will be interesting to see what ABAX does in the morning. Glad you got on board. Poorman, from the IBD forum introduced me to a friend of his named Jim Schfield, who was the best fundamental investor I ever met, and he would pick a stock and buy it and hold it forever. He made a zillion in the markets and lived real good off the dividends he made on stocks he owned. He lived down in Texas near Dallas somewhere. Anyway he gave me Abaxis about 4 years ago an I made a really big score off it. He gave it to me around 10/11 area an I held it to around 19/20 so this is the second time around for me. I used to call him and email him on a pretty regular basis an one night I called him and there was no answer and for about a week or 10 days I kept calling him with no answer. Finally Poormans or someone called the police and they went in a he had been dead for awhile. He lived alone with no relatives. What a way to go. I don't know who got the money but there was alot of it.
I sent you that info. You never told me if you got it or not.

[skiracer]

I'm out of your league on the number of shares have 500 but after your talk of 21.26 I'm going to sell CBI and put It In mot at that time.However I think It can run to 25 to 26 ? but will sell on 12/15 no mater where It Is at. Thanks again Ski.

Ray,
I really like MOT and will definitely be in at 21.26 and do exactly as I said with the trade if it triggers at that, but please don't do anything on my sayso. If I'm in at 21.26 my first stop will be placed exactly at 7% or 19.77. That's absolutely for sure with me regardless of what Morpheus would set their stop at. They are a little more liberal than me. At 19.77 I'm risking 1.48 to make 2.00. That's a r/r of .74 which is high but that's the bottom line. The stock could go higher, like you're expecting to 25/26 range, which would be great and would lower the r/r considerably but I would be happy with 23.25 range. I've made alot of money with this outfit so I usually follow their lead but not without due dilligence on my part. I've said this before about this outfit. They have more losers than winners but they cut the losers off short and let the winners run out until they stall or get stopped out. That insures a winning %. Another thing with them is that they always take some off the table at some point in the trade, usually 40/50% after they have captured a certain amount of gains in the position. Sometimes I will do that and sometimes I'll let it ride but 99% of the time I will not let the gains go after I have them at a specific point in the trade. Today was a great day for the markets in general and tomorrow could easily be just the opposite. Good luck.

[Lyehopper]

Lye,
I did pick up PETS from one of your posts an so far it has turned out to be a decent trade. I'm waiting for those calls to get moving. Stock was up real good today on big volume and the calls dropped .05. I'm feeling real good about the stock going up to the 12.50 range and the calls should follow the move up in the stocks price 57 days left in the calls so there is room yet.
It will be interesting to see what ABAX does in the morning. Glad you got on board. Poorman, from the IBD forum introduced me to a friend of his named Jim Schfield, who was the best fundamental investor I ever met, and he would pick a stock and buy it and hold it forever. He made a zillion in the markets and lived real good off the dividends he made on stocks he owned. He lived down in Texas near Dallas somewhere. Anyway he gave me Abaxis about 4 years ago an I made a really big score off it. He gave it to me around 10/11 area an I held it to around 19/20 so this is the second time around for me. I used to call him and email him on a pretty regular basis an one night I called him and there was no answer and for about a week or 10 days I kept calling him with no answer. Finally Poormans or someone called the police and they went in a he had been dead for awhile. He lived alone with no relatives. What a way to go. I don't know who got the money but there was alot of it.
I sent you that info. You never told me if you got it or not.
Sorry Ski.... I got it dude, Thanks. I'll be sending you some return info soon. I'll give you a "heads up" when It's on the way.

Hey, Ski, how bout some thoughts on IRIS? I'm hot on that thing.

[skiracer]

Hey, didn't I turn you onto PETS?

BTW... I'm holding (Dougs pick) IRIS too.... looking nice right now what's your take on it?

I wish I was holding it after today. Here's what I think. Today was a great day for the markets and most stocks followed the market direction up. Tomorrow might be a different story so I would PROTECT my gains.
It was giving off a few signals but I don't think I would have caught this one although it had been mentioned and posted on several times recently. MSN Money had this on it which I just found when I was checking it out on their site. Glad you had it. Make sure you don't give it all back. I would also prepare myself for a pullback or consolidation of some sort as it is getting close to the upper channel line after todays gains. They don't continue up forever and you can always get back in after the pullback as it will continue the uptrend in normal fashion with alittle help from the markets which you got today. Remember 50% of them follow the market direction regardless of their fundamental strengths so you have to play it accordingly in my opinion.

http://img455.imageshack.us/img455/7851/iris3oe.jpg (http://imageshack.us)http://img455.imageshack.us/img455/8643/iris23mt.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img381.imageshack.us/img381/6595/iris37oj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Lye,
I did pick up PETS from one of your posts an so far it has turned out to be a decent trade. I'm waiting for those calls to get moving. Stock was up real good today on big volume and the calls dropped .05. I'm feeling real good about the stock going up to the 12.50 range and the calls should follow the move up in the stocks price 57 days left in the calls so there is room yet.
It will be interesting to see what ABAX does in the morning. Glad you got on board. Poorman, from the IBD forum introduced me to a friend of his named Jim Schfield, who was the best fundamental investor I ever met, and he would pick a stock and buy it and hold it forever. He made a zillion in the markets and lived real good off the dividends he made on stocks he owned. He lived down in Texas near Dallas somewhere. Anyway he gave me Abaxis about 4 years ago an I made a really big score off it. He gave it to me around 10/11 area an I held it to around 19/20 so this is the second time around for me. I used to call him and email him on a pretty regular basis an one night I called him and there was no answer and for about a week or 10 days I kept calling him with no answer. Finally Poormans or someone called the police and they went in a he had been dead for awhile. He lived alone with no relatives. What a way to go. I don't know who got the money but there was alot of it.
I sent you that info. You never told me if you got it or not.

Nice job on your holdings SKI. You’ve been rewarded nicely for your patience...

[skiracer]

Runner,
Boy these few positions have been an exercise in patience. Thanks for noticing that. I did believe in them though but there were times when they pushed me to the wall.

[spikefader]

...calls actually lost .05 today to close at .35. 89 contracts traded on the calls today which amazes me with the stock being up 1.15 and the options losing .05 ..It amazed me the first time I witness such apparent insanity. It's inexplicable one might be forgiven for thinking. I've experienced the same nonsense and not profited from a good 10% drop in a low volume stock I held puts for. And of course the GOOG play where I profited extremely well, from no "when all is said and done" move in the stock price. Options are nuts.

But congrats on the bone Dog! :D

[skiracer]

Spike,
That's one apparent reason why I don't play with them to much. Never have done really well with them over the long run except to hedge a position and even then, like insurance, you pay, pay, pay, and then they don't pay you for the claim if you have one.
PETS and ABAX had really nice reports but I think a large part of yesterdays move up was on the new Fed. chief appointment. Be nice to see it hold and we get a follow thru on some volume but I really have my reservations. I'm going to be real cautious for the time being. But thanks. I felt like I was bleeding out there for awhile with these three but yesterday was like a qt. of blood.

[spikefader]

... Be nice to see it hold and we get a follow thru on some volume but I really have my reservations. ....
What I see anyway. Looks ready to rumble.
http://img491.imageshack.us/img491/6938/petsoct255jy.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Spike,
Thanks for your take on it. Another up day on higher than average volume to close up .36 at 11.58. Finally got a plus on those options although not much.
Up .05 to .40 bid .60 asked and not a single contract trade on the Dec. 12.50 calls. I'm just sitting on them in a waiting mode and the same with the stock. Although with the stock I placed a stop at $11.00 I feel the same as you being bullish on the stock and feel confident it will go to 12.50 over the short term. Looks like the markets are going to give some help. Hypothetical question for you. If the stock does go to 12.50 and the 12.50 call becomes "in the money" wouldn't the call have to go up? I mean could the call possibly not go up even if the stock were to go over the strike price of the call? Still 51 days left in the option.

[skiracer]

Ray,
I really like MOT and will definitely be in at 21.26 and do exactly as I said with the trade if it triggers at that, but please don't do anything on my sayso. If I'm in at 21.26 my first stop will be placed exactly at 7% or 19.77. That's absolutely for sure with me regardless of what Morpheus would set their stop at. They are a little more liberal than me. At 19.77 I'm risking 1.48 to make 2.00. That's a r/r of .74 which is high but that's the bottom line. The stock could go higher, like you're expecting to 25/26 range, which would be great and would lower the r/r considerably but I would be happy with 23.25 range. I've made alot of money with this outfit so I usually follow their lead but not without due dilligence on my part. I've said this before about this outfit. They have more losers than winners but they cut the losers off short and let the winners run out until they stall or get stopped out. That insures a winning %. Another thing with them is that they always take some off the table at some point in the trade, usually 40/50% after they have captured a certain amount of gains in the position. Sometimes I will do that and sometimes I'll let it ride but 99% of the time I will not let the gains go after I have them at a specific point in the trade. Today was a great day for the markets in general and tomorrow could easily be just the opposite. Good luck.

Ray,

I placed a buy order for MOT this morning at 21.26 an it triggered so I'm in the trade. I like the market right now and think that will play a major factor in how MOT will trend. As I stated in an earlier post I would be setting a stop at 7% below my initial entry which would put the stop at 19.77. The daily and weekly chart both look good to me with the weekly giving a channel long signal recently. If the markets keep this upward trend it will definitely increase MOT's chances of hitting my target range. I'll keep you abreast of how I'm playing it.

[billyjoe]

Ski and Ray,
MOT does look good and we all deserve at least a minor boom after the torture of the past few months. That's one reason I'm staying in the game so when it happens I won't be on the sidelines. Let's hope MOT is the beginning.

billyjoe

[Runner]

Ski took a look at MOT’s weekly and was wondering if it might try to form a S/H/S off 22.00 area? What is your take on this? I know this is pure speculation but I thought it might be worth bringing up..

http://img455.imageshack.us/img455/5525/mot4gm.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Ski sorry about the mix up. Chart above is a daily... longg dayy

[RL]

Thanks Ski sure do APPECIATE your guidance.

[spikefader]

Spike,
.....Hypothetical question for you. If the stock does go to 12.50 and the 12.50 call becomes "in the money" wouldn't the call have to go up? I mean could the call possibly not go up even if the stock were to go over the strike price of the call? Still 51 days left in the option.From my experience yes, once she's in the money both interest in them and traded volume should rise, and price will be more in line with expectations. You've still got time on your side, but once it gets inside a month that premium disappears pretty quickly, especially the more out of the money it is. Those low vol options can be a nightmare if you're out of the money. And the low vol stocks that are jumpy and spikey you may expect a certain price of the option to match the jump/drop in stock price, but due to the low interest in them the option price just sits there and you're left kicking the cat. It pays to trade in the money options for those low volume stocks. I see weekly resistance at 12.50 to 13.00 from last year, so choosing that strike option is probably a mistake, since price will resist that area and if it does hit 12.50 it may not stay there long enough for the options to move.

[spikefader]

MOT has some work to do :(

http://img460.imageshack.us/img460/7002/motoct274bb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Spike,
You're probably right with the PETS call options. My rationale in the beginning was that the stock was growing strong revenues and eps and felt that would be the driving factor behind the option going up but you logic does seem to hold water. Still 50 days or so in the time frame so I'm sitting it out awhile longer.
I got stopped out of the stock position yesterday at 11.00 so that's over an done with. Decent gain but I'm still disappointed with what I perceived as a decent stock with great potential for growth and price appreciation. Like you said these low volume issues are hard to judge sometimes.
Out of SNAK with anothe loss. Foolish on my part to hold into earnings. Really felt great about the company and where it was going but no cigar. Had removed the stop on it and was doing a physical thing with it to let it have some breathing room on earnings day and got caught in the rush to get out. Someone knew the report wasn't going to be up to snuff and the rush started way earlier than when the report was to come out. I was away from the screen and the next thing I knew it was under $4. Another example of not doing what you tell other people to do yourself and trading what you think and not what you see. Still doing that on occasion after all these years.
Sold off ABAX just because of the market conditions. Had a real decent gain on it from 13.10 an at the end of the day was just fed up with these markets. I really thought things were looking up at the end of yesterday but again couldn't have been farther from the truth. Took the gains an except for the call options and MOTam now in cash.
The business has been so busy an even mediocre help so hard to find that I have been away from the screens alot of late and it's hard to trade under those conditions. I feel that I've been in a fight over the last few weeks and need some time away from it all so I'm going to sit on the sidelines and just watch for a bit and let those two positions play themselves out.

Ray,
MOT is a good stock but without alittle help from the markets it doesn't have a chance to reach the target range we have talked about. I placed a stop at $19.77 but if the markets continue to fall through support areas I am probably going to bail much earlier. When the writing is on the wall and directly in front of you it pays to listen to what it is saying. Very disappointed with how the markets are playing out right now and the best mindset is not to try to buck what looks to be apparent more each day. We may get a boucne or two but it looks like it's one step forward and two steps backward right now. Good luck with it.

[RL]

SKY I sure agree with you, a real disappointment In MOT can not believe my loses this month got killed on CBI thats why I should not be doing this but I'm addicted.almost all cash just MOT and UNH.

[Lyehopper]

SKY I sure agree with you, a real disappointment In MOT can not believe my loses this month got killed on CBI thats why I should not be doing this but I'm addicted.almost all cash just MOT and UNH.

This is like AA for stock-trade-aholics Ray.lol.... I actually made pretty good returns in October. Thanks to a few good short trades, and Ski's ABAX long. I'm out of ABAX now though.... I'm mostly in cash right now too but I have a nice short list here waiting to go. Why don't you try a few (short term) short trades Ray, you'll like it.... It's like switching from beer to moonshine! Hey, if you're gonna be addicted.... why not go all the way.lol

[RL]

Ski, should I be In MOT or time to cut no movement on a big up day In the market

[skiracer]

Ray,
I would definitely stay in MOT for the time being. I posted the other day on the "Market Watch", thread that I was bearish on the markets in general and was looking for them to go down much farther. I didn't mean that tomorrow the bottom was going to fall out, an I could be dead wrong with those feelings, but I felt MOT showed decent strength through all of last week and Friday wasn't that bad of a day for the stock. I'll post a couple of charts later on after dinner on why I still like the position on MOT an how I'm playing it.
You're in from around $20.16 or so aren't you so protecting your gains to date and not giving back to much of them while giving the trade a decent chance to breathe an materialize into reaching your target is the priority right now. Remember you're in the drivers seat an ahead of the position right now so there is no need to become anxious. Developing a plan to protect what you have going with the position in this market is the priority.

[RL]

Thanks Sky, just the market dose not have a good feel

[spikefader]

Yeah RL, Ski is probably right. While I posted earlier what MOT faces I must observe this: You have MOT coming off a weekly channel long a few weeks ago. Price is threatening to take out that channel short on the daily, and that intraday triple top pattern. I'm bullish on the broader market from here, so I'm expecting MOT to do the work it needs to and get over the hump. Weekly channel long out-trumps the daily pattern, so you should stay quietly confident, and just worry about following the plan you've got.

[skiracer]

Thanks Sky, just the market dose not have a good feel
Ray,
It's Skiracer, but in all honesty I like Sky much more than Ski. I'm going to change it to Skyracer. Thanks for the inadverdent miscue Ray. I like the way you put it much better.

[skiracer]

Ray,
I would definitely stay in MOT for the time being. I posted the other day on the "Market Watch", thread that I was bearish on the markets in general and was looking for them to go down much farther. I didn't mean that tomorrow the bottom was going to fall out, an I could be dead wrong with those feelings, but I felt MOT showed decent strength through all of last week and Friday wasn't that bad of a day for the stock. I'll post a couple of charts later on after dinner on why I still like the position on MOT an how I'm playing it.
You're in from around $20.16 or so aren't you so protecting your gains to date and not giving back to much of them while giving the trade a decent chance to breathe an materialize into reaching your target is the priority right now. Remember you're in the drivers seat an ahead of the position right now so there is no need to become anxious. Developing a plan to protect what you have going with the position in this market is the priority.

Ray,
Nothing is for sure an you know that. Here's a couple of things on the daily and weekly charts which have prompted my feelings on MOT. The NASDAQ market and SMH Holders, which tracks the tech stocks, have both been weak and since MOT is in that sector it is heavily influenced by the direction that both of them trend. The two charts speak for themselves an I have annotated my feeling on both. It seems that the $20.70 range has been holding up as a low the last couple of weeks. I have placed my stop at $19.77 but am going to bring it up to around $20.50 tomorrow to keep a close rein on the position. I'm not advising you to do anything except protect your gains in a volitaile market while giving the stock room to prove itself. If you place your stop around $20.50 an were to get stopped out at least you have protected yourself from a loss an insured some of your gains. If it were to go through a stop placed at $20.50 then it could go to $20 or lower an that would wipe out any profits. This is a great stock but as always it like the rest of them is influenced by the general market trend and that has been volitaile to say the least. If the NASDAQ and SMH do recover and strengthen it will be one of the leaders in that sector. Remember you can always re-enter anytime after the fact. PROTECT YOUR GAINS AND CAPITAL ABOVE ALL ELSE. Also Spike is feeling a little better about the stock and that is reassuring. Good luck.

http://img489.imageshack.us/img489/6373/mot17xa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img411.imageshack.us/img411/7429/mot28fb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[RL]

SKI [notice I have It right] thanks for your time you have given me In regards to MOT I truly do appreciate It.

[RL]

A clean breakout any thoughts on this one?

[RL]

The catalysts to move MOT to 25 and beyond by X-mas are:

* Telsim is sold around 5 December 05 for approximately $5B and MOT receives another $500M in cash in December - in addition to the $500M received on 28 Oct 05

* New products such as the CDMA RAZR, Moto Q and SLVR are officially launched in the US in time for the X-Mas selling season (Note - MOT has a great opportunity to take advantage of RIMM's Blackberry troubles by getting the Q out ASAP)

* The auto unit is sold for $1B in December of this year (Note - by selling the auto unit MOT will automatically raise its margins by a couple of percentage points, which will be very pleasing to Wall Street)

* Q4 is historically MOT's strongest quarter with the highest unit sales and strongest cash flow generation - over $1B

* All of the factors above will lead to MOT management and Wall Street increasing its earnings guidance for Q4 which should lead to upgrades and higher stock price

* With the sale of the auto unit, settlement and sale of Telsim, new product introductions, and strong Q4 economics, MOT will generate an additional $3B in new cash flow in Q4.

* Year end rally.

[skiracer]

Ray,
I raised my stop in MOT to $21.26 this morning which is breakeven for me as that was my initial entry point. Position now up .96.

PETS had a hugh breakout move today as it rose 1.50 points on huge, 1,858,528 shares traded today, volume which is about 1.4 mil. over average. Finally saw some movement in the options as the bid is now .55 asked 1.00. The Dec. 12.50 call options are now in the money with 45 days left to expiration. Last trade today in the options was 1.00 and there were 78 contracts traded.

Here is Morpheus's take on the recent market action an another trade setup to consider. I'm posting this setup up basically just for the opinions on it. I very seldom trade stock this high in price. Just to much money to take a full 1000 share position in something that's trading over $70 dollars a share. But I welcome the dialogue on the setup and their logic on it. As mentioned below the CCRT setup never triggered and for fairness sake the stock went almost 4 points in the wrong direction. Talk about being wrong, but the great thing about having a plan for entry, exit, stops , r/r etc. is that you don't enter or chase any setup unless it triggers at your prearranged target entry either on the long or short side thus limiting your downside trades dramatically.

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/8738/mtg12ti.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/3750/mtg24cb.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/8531/mtg32py.jpg (http://imageshack.us)


I actually like this setup an think it will break the recent downtrend line which it did today and actually did trigger before closing at $71.88 or .08 off the initial entry of $71.96. I just don't like putting up that much money when you can get so many other good setups under $30/40 range. Anyway I would be interested in hearing what you think on the setup.

[URL=http://imageshack.us][IMG]http://img111.imageshack.us/img111/1858/mtg42fg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Lyehopper]

VICL.... Rockin dude. what do ya think?

[jiesen]

I'll say! Very nice pick, there Lye? What was it that turned you on to VICL? I have some friends who work there, maybe I should ask them what's up?

[Lyehopper]

I'll say! Very nice pick, there Lye? What was it that turned you on to VICL? I have some friends who work there, maybe I should ask them what's up?

Jiesen, I read a little associated press blurb in the local newspaper (p.10) early Monday morning about a new (potential) bird flu vaccine. I looked up the company mentioned and sure enough they were publicly traded. I noticed the freakin CEO had been buying up his own shares at the current price so I piled onboard Monday morning and played the stock in the POTW. they announced earnings yesterday lost their A$$ yet the stock moved upward.... I bought more!.... by the close yesterday the volume exploded.... JACKPOT!

[jiesen]

Well, I must say it's a great catch. I knew they did vaccines for salmon, but I guess birds are next!

But it just makes sense, really. Like mad cow, and low-carb, bird flu is just the next big thing for those paying attention (like you) to find an opportunity somewhere and ride it for a while. Especially when the government just stepped in with $7B to throw at it.

[Lyehopper]

Well, I must say it's a great catch. I knew they did vaccines for salmon, but I guess birds are next!

But it just makes sense, really. Like mad cow, and low-carb, bird flu is just the next big thing for those paying attention (like you) to find an opportunity somewhere and ride it for a while. Especially when the government just stepped in with $7B to throw at it.

LOL... Yeah, all ya gotta do is read p.10 in the newspaper!

They have a patented process, listen to their CC from yesterday Jiesen. DNA Vaccines.... Their CEO is a very sharp dude and handled the question session like a master, he even used curse words in the CC.lol.... An Indian fella.... Vijay is his name, I like this dude!

[skiracer]

Just an update on the positions and trades that I have posted on over the last 4/5 wks. some which were my own picks and a few others that were Morpheus Trading Groups selections.

Mine:

ABAX: entry; $13.10 exit; $16.99/17.00 +3.90 or 30% gain
SNAK: entry average: $4.77 (two trades) exit average $4.75 or .42% loss
PETS: entry on stock; 9.35 stopped out at $11.00 +1.65 or 18% gain
entry average on Dec. 12.50 call options/20 contracts @ .69 still open an holding: close today $1.50 +.81 or 117.39% gain gain
Total gains/losses: average gain: 41.14 % gain

Morpheus Trading Group

MOT: entry $21.26 sold half position at $23.00 half position still open; close today at $23.00 +1.74 gain or 8% gain
Genz: triggered at $71.96 ( I didn't make the trade and don't own it) closed today at $74.37 +2.41 or 3.34 % gain
Total gain/losses: average gain 5.67%

I don't know if anyone has been reading or following these setups much less taking positions in any of them. It hasn't been a bad month for my own trades and Morpheus Trading Groups trades have been solid with two out of three triggering and both of those making decent gains. They are consistently in the money with their picks and cut their losers short before any real damage can take place thus insuring a winning %. I'll keep posting on Morpheus's setups and how they manage the trade while in it. You will be amazed how the winning % will consistently be much higher that the losers over the course of a few months.

As an example of the cost vs the return on the subscription costs here is what it is for this month: $149.00 cost of both Wagner Daily (ETF report) and Stock Stalker report combined. + $870 on 1/2 position of MOT with 1/2 position still open. $870 gain / $149 return on subscription investment not counting GENZ position which I did not trade = 584% return over cost of susbscription. If that was included the return would be: $870 + $2410 (1000 share full position @ $2.41 gain to date) / $149 = 2201% gain on the subscription price for the 1 month. These totals do not include the several other ETF/Holders and stock trades which I did not post on an are for subscribers only. Their record of both types of trades are available at their site so you can see what their total gains vs losses are on all their trades by just visiting their site. It's all real and there for anyone who is interested in checking out their overall numbers.

[Websman]

Very immpressive returns Ski!

[skiracer]

I got lucky with the call options on PETS, Lyehopper was where I got the stock initially, but it did what I thought they would do with the solid fundamental base the stock was an is exhibiting only moreso than I expected in all honesty. ABAX was a decent TA call based solely on the chart analysis and some strong fundamental things going on there. MOT and GENZ are setups that came from the Morpheus group. I do examine their picks before making the trade but they have been going like this for the past two years that I have been subscribing an anymore I usually just go along with the program and set my stops accordingly to protect the trade and limit the losses. I actually don't even subscribe myself anymore but share the subscription with 3 other friends that I turned them on to and made believers out of so we're splitting the $149 4 ways out of 1 subscription. It would be hard to believe but the numbers are actually better than what I have posted in that I have only posted the setups that they give out for free as an inducement to gain subscribers every week. The real picks are for paid subscribers only and there are several more of them every week. They don't all trigger.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
Really liked your charts on AOB over on Webs thread . They are very clear and easy to understand . My question is how do you know what chart to go by to determine a purchase point? Yours were daily and weekly , but some people (we won't mention names) insist on a minimum 8 week base . What if the daily looks great but the weekly stinks or visa versa. Does it depend on the time frame you plan on holding? Those are the best charts yet and keep up the good work.

billyjoe

[skiracer]

Ski,
Really liked your charts on AOB over on Webs thread . They are very clear and easy to understand . My question is how do you know what chart to go by to determine a purchase point? Yours were daily and weekly , but some people (we won't mention names) insist on a minimum 8 week base . What if the daily looks great but the weekly stinks or visa versa. Does it depend on the time frame you plan on holding? Those are the best charts yet and keep up the good work.

billyjoe

Billyjoe,
I try to keep it simple but underneath there is alot going on when I try to make a determination on taking a position. I'm a TA strategist but always look at the fundamental side of a stock to see what's going on etc..
When I'm watching the screens during the day I have on the 5/10/15 minute charts to catch any intraday movement or breakouts. You can't catch them all but it does happen and those 3 time frames are what I use intraday for a short scalp or daytrade. Sometime the momentum of a scalp or daytrade will remain strong an I'll take the position overnight or for a few days.

When I'm initially checking out a setup or looking for them I like the daily chart. Everyone will have a different opinion on this for their own reasons. I like the daily for the immediate short term view of what a stock has been doing. The daily and weekly almost always show a different picture. As with AOB the daily clearly showed an ascending triangle but the weekly was a completely different picture with more of a cup base and small handle.
The daily usually is what catches my attention in the first place. I then go to the weekly, which I feel trumps or overides the daily, when making a determination. It gives a clearer picture of what has been going on over a longer period of time. Especially with volume and chart patterns.
Entry points are usually driven by what I interpret from the chart and the indicators that I regularly use like RSI, MACD, A/D, volume, CCI. I'm now trying to learn Elliot Wave Theory to add to my arsenal.
It's kind of hard to explain how I develope a strategic plan for taking a position. I look for high and low points and higher highs and lower lows over a period of time. You develope a feel for how and what you like to see in a chart that developes into a plan for entry, exit, and stops. Again these are based on trend lines, Fibonacci lines, my indicators, etc. and when they fall into place I get that warm feeling in my gut an then I know or think I know.
The time frame I will hold a position is usually determined by what the stock does after my entry. I always have a basic idea of how I would like or expect the stock to trend but they have a mind of their own an you have to adjust to their action accordingly. Like anything it really boils down to doing it over a long period of time and learning, hopefully, from your positive and negative experiences.
I spend alot of time going over a large number of stock charts everyday. After awhile certain patterns will start to stick out. I've said this and Spike has said it hundreds of times. The stops and cutting the losses short, plus once you're out, letting it go whether the outcome was positive or negative are two important factors on the TA side of things.
One other thing is that there is nothing wrong with a nice long base. I'm not saying that you should wait for 8 wks. to make a play. You would be limiting yourself in my opinion by doing that, but if it is there, like with AOB on the weekly chart, it makes for a much stronger case for the stock if the base is the right type of base like that cup in AOB. But nothing is written in stone an only trying to make a bigger edge for yourself is the best you can do.
One other thing I advocate, but am not trying to push on anyone, is to take a subscription to something like Briefing.com just to get the insight and educational value from the two guys that write their Swing Trader and Technical Take columns. It will provide you with a great education in chart analysis from another professionals point of view plus open a whole new area of how they use indicators in their analysis. I have my own that I like and I think that it's a good idea. There are hundreds out there but finding the legitimate ones that fit your needs and give the most for the money is the hardest part. I like Briefing.com, John Murphy from Stockcharts, and Morpheus Trading Group.

[skiracer]

Ray,
Are you out there Ray? Just a shout to see if you're still holding MOT. I'm thinking now that $25/26 is not impossible or improbable. Sold off half my position the other day at $23 an am letting the remainder ride it out. Brought my stop up to $22.50. The NASDAQ looks to be strengthening and that is good for MOT. Let me know if you're still in it.

[RL]

Ski still In holding untill Dec.15th. Unless some bad news. Thanks for your concern.

[RL]

Ski sent you a message back on 11/1 about Mot. page 49

[skiracer]

Ray,
I read that post Ray. MOT's got alot of strong fundamental stuff going for it. That's one of the reasons why it will do well. Just glad that you're still in it. Was wondering if you had placed a stop or were just holding on to it and watching it closely. I feel now that it will reach $25/26 range. Hopefully before Dec. 15 for you. What's going on with Dec. 15 anyway? Do you own options on it?