Worried Traders Diary

[billyjoe]

This story starts out backdated , but will end up almost in real time. I hope the ending is more exciting than Geraldo Rivera's opening of Al Capone's vault.Everything is true . Just wish me a happy ending .

Wednesday Dec.8th A charting service I found through Google said to watch PLMO Palmone. If it hits 41 on volume it's going to break out. Closed today at 38.13

Thursday Dec. 9th PLMO closes at 37.55 I'm still watching this one.

Friday Dec. 10th It is advancing on double volume closing at 39.56. Watch out for Monday

Monday Dec.13th 8:30 am CNBC shows pre-market trading of PLMO up over 42. Well I missed 41 am heading out for my 40 minute morning walk. I'm back and hit the computer. It's at 42.365 on massive trading and I buy 300 shares. During the day it keeps going up 43 , 44. It ends at 44.50 up 4.94 today and I'm up $639, not bad.

Tuesday Dec.14th It opens at 44.63 and continues to climb, maybe I can retire a year earlier than planned maybe it'll run to 100 or higher another TASR or TZOO. It's up to 46.65 and I'm up $1275 in little more than 24 hours life is sweet! Wait a minute something is wrong, no! it's going the wrong way. Down to 42.75 why I don't know .My profit has shrunk to little over $100. Hey it's going back up whew . It closes at 44.60 up 10 cents and I'm up $669.

Wednesday Dec.15th Earnings come out tomorrow after closing. A good report is worth probably $1000 to me a bad report will cost me my $669 plus another grand. Pre-market is down 2.65 to 41.95 I'm in the hole, what's wrong.Some analyst from Lehman Bros. has downgraded PLMO to "equalweight" whatever that means. It opens at 42.15 , but rallies to close at 43.69 and I back ahead $390. I've decided to hold on to see what the earnings report says. Maybe I'm a fool. Everybody will know before tomorrow night. This story continues in the morning.
billyjoe

[IIC]

I never worry...IIC

[jiesen]

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10199346.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

I worry about FNM. This news is not good. Fotunately, I listened to W.E.B. when he said these derivative schemes would catch up to them, and never bought any stock in them...

anyone out there own FNM?

[lak]

Keep the head up.........

[scifos]

I never worry...IIC

Smart investors develop a system, and a specific plan for each stock. Worry shouldn't be part of it. Stick to the plan, what happens happens.

[billyjoe]

Thursday morning Dec.14th 6:49am There's a conference call about PLMO's earnings tonight at 5:00pm. Best Buy announced a 20%+ increase in earnings so it might be a sign of good things to come. People seem to be holding off on buying clothing , but spending instead on electronics especially HD tv, including LCD, Plasma, and flat screen. Just so they also pick up a nice hand held computer by palmone to fill out the basket.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Thursday morning 8:27 pre-market PLMO 44.18 up .49 what does the pre-market crowd know that I don't? They're probably guessing just like the next guy. A recap , in the last 48 hours I've been up as much as 10% at 46.65 and down as much as 2.6% at 41.26. Currently am up 4.3% at 44.18.
While on my morning walk dodging snow and ice I figured my odds are 60-40 that PLMO will beat estimates. They missed last quarter and dropped 36%. They beat estimates the quarter ending in May and went up 18%.

[billyjoe]

Thursday morning 9:46 PLMO opened at 44.40 so far so good . If it misses earnings it will drop fast , have to sell as soon as possible.

[Gatorman]

As I watch now, PLMO is 44.50 after being up as high as + 1.21.
Enjoy your posts and have seen some of your posts on IBD forums. Am new to this forum and am having a bit of difficulty navigating the site. Am trying to get a handle on Mr Markets style and am putting some of it together. It appears he advocates buying at a 50% pullback point and selling at +15%. Is that close? Where on the site should I go to learn more and see his recent "hotlist" that I saw mentioned somewhere but I don't remember where? Thanks

[billyjoe]

Gatorman, Actually the 50% pullback is part of spikefaders thread on swingtrading Mr. Market's picks , just another method being tried. Go back and click on Mr. Market's personal portfolio which will direct you to his website that explains his model . It will become clearer after a little study.
Nobody attacks anyone hear . It is a much friendlier site than IBD. We actually have senses of humor here and admit we aren't all experts.
billyjoe

p.s. the hotlist is probably the "college bowl top 5" click on that thread

[Gatorman]

Thanks. New websites are a bit difficult for me to navigate until I get used to them. I have noticed that there are no attacks like IBD seems to favor. That is definitely refreshing. Will wander about the site and see what I can learn. May even have a thing or 2 to post in the future.

[mrmarket]

Thanks. New websites are a bit difficult for me to navigate until I get used to them. I have noticed that there are no attacks like IBD seems to favor. That is definitely refreshing. Will wander about the site and see what I can learn. May even have a thing or 2 to post in the future.

This is my site. If people don't play nice, they have to deal with my 19" biceps. We have not seen any unfriendly behavior. People are smart.

[Gatorman]

This is my site. If people don't play nice, they have to deal with my 19" biceps. We have not seen any unfriendly behavior. People are smart.
As you probably know, there is no middle ground concerning your methods and strategy over at IBD. With that kind of emotional reaction in something that should be as free of emotion as possible, it became a MUST that I come over here and see "what's the fuss all about."
I look forward to learning a bit.

[jiesen]

welcome aboard, Gatorman!
jump on in, the water's fine.

http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/a/alligator.asp
http://www.thejump.net/alligators-etc/1-alligator-pic-3/etc-13.htm
btw... may I suggest an avatar? (I like the Gator PI myself)

[Gatorman]

welcome aboard, Gatorman!
jump on in, the water's fine.

http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/a/alligator.asp
http://www.thejump.net/alligators-etc/1-alligator-pic-3/etc-13.htm
btw... may I suggest an avatar? (I like the Gator PI myself)
Thanks for the welcome. Will wander around and see if I can learn anything. Probably will have alot of questions in the future. Look forward to future conversations.

[billyjoe]

Thursday morning 11:47 PLMO is hovering around the opening price. Volume is up some , but not crazy like the last couple days. I don't think anyone knows what earnings will be. The volume and price action look like cautious optimism to me. Conference call in 5 1/2 hours.

[billyjoe]

Thursday afternoon 2:08pm PLMO is down to my purchase price no profit left why didn't I just buy MSO (Martha Stewart) she knows how to run a company. Less than 3 hours till earnings. Are the big guys trying to get rid of us little guys before a run up? Is it a voice from beyond warning me to GET OUT! No, I'm not listening . Profits will be mine!
billyjoe

[Dave]

My semi-theory on earnings reports is this: it is very risky to hold through them. If you sell before the CC, and it is positive enough, you can always buy back in and get in on some upswing. If it is negative, you have sold, and don't take the hit. If its neutral, you can figure the stock may be dead money and put the cash somewhere else. That being said, if I have confidence in the company beatings earnings, I hold through. If they have a history of beating, and have not said anything that might foreshadow lower earnings, then its worth a bit of risk. One thing I never do except in extremely rare cases, is trust pre-market trading. Anywho, its all about confidence in the company, which comes from a bunch of research...

Yesterday the President and a Director dumped some shares, are they confident?

How confident are you???

-Dave

[billyjoe]

Thursday afternoon 3:09 pm The stock is down to 41.65 and I'm down $225. Volume is picking up. Are people panicking thinking earnings won't be met? wwmmd What would Mr.Market do? If he believed in the company he'd hold on and that's what I'm doing. This may just be a coincidence but the current price is right at the pivot point on Dec.13th when all the action started. Let the chips fall where they may.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Thursday afternoon 4:17 pm PLMO closed at 42.55 putting me up 50 some dollars. After hours trading is at 38.50 with more sell orders than buy orders, but I notice the buy orders are for greater quantities more 1000 share lots and even 5000 lots. Maybe institutions are after bargains. Earnings announcement in 38 minutes.
billyjoe

[Dave]

Down on fairly heavy aftermarket volume, but look for a good rebound. My prediction would be, at this point, you might be about even at the open tomorrow, or at least not down much. I still don't like the insiders dumping right before earnings, even if it is not a large number of shares.

Go PLMO!

-Coach

[billyjoe]

Thursday 5:40 pm Things aren't looking good . This quarter met estimates at .53 , but next quarter may be lower, however, total for the year remains unchanged. Afterhour trading is down around 36.50 , not good ,but I'll not panic yet, maybe tomorrow.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Thursday evening 7:26pm Geraldo is about to open the PLMO vault. They bought the building from the Alexander Graham Bell estate. He invented the first smart phone. Geraldo "I'll just pry open this door and shine my flashlight in. There's a big pile of ............. is it money? No it's bullcrap." It'll be bagged and weighed. We'll determine the amount tomorrow around 9:30 am
billyjoe

[MEA_1956]

I'll Be Bagged and Weighted, I Like That. Are you from the potatoe country.

[billyjoe]

Mea, No, but I've dabbled in both fertilizer and produce.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Friday morning 7:00 am PLMO down over 15% in extended trading
" I"ve gambled with my life
and now I"ve lost my will to fight
Oh! these chains are so tight"*

* a forgotten group from early 70s
billyjoe

[Dave]

Pre-market doesn't look that great, but it could just be MMs working some cheap shares. Just keep in mind that pre-market is only retail suckers like us, and generally does not mean much. I wouldn't panic until later today. Give people some time to digest the 10Q and the CC.

-Dave

[billyjoe]

Friday morning 10:11am My last post was mysteriously deleted. PLMO down 19.8% from my purchase . I was up $1275 or 11% on Dec.14th now am down $2500 or 19.8%. What about "let your winners run, especially if they go up 10% in one day hold for at least 8 weeks it could double or quadruple." Well this winner became a big loser in 2 hours it ran into the ground. Maybe "sell immediately at 8% loss" works better in this situation.
My next selection will have the characteristics sure to produce $$$. The CEO will be a convicted felon preferable currently in the slammer (MSO) It will produce a great product then let it become outdated and showing little potential (AAPL), and it will produce a product that seriously injures or kills hundreds or thousands of its customers (MRK). All PLMO did was meet quarterly concensus .53 , but lower expectations for next quarter while meeting the yearly expectations. This is unforgiveable. Sorry about this rant.

Dave, thanks for your support. PLMO will be placed in the "Phoenix" portfolio where it will arise from the ashes.
This will be the final entry in The Worried Traders Diary unless something unexpected happens in the next few days.
billyjoe

[Dave]

This is an interesting situation. I would consider this a bit of an over-reaction and a good entry point for PLMO on the long side. If one of my stocks gets into a situation like this, I usually pick a good spot and double, or more than double, down. I have only had it happen twice, once with NCEN, and once with UTSI. Both times it was a huge over-reaction, and I made a ton more than if I had just held the initial buy and waited for my 15%. The 15% eventually came, but it also came along with a 45% gain on my NCEN double, and I am near 100% on my UTSI double and holding for more like 400% on that one.

I think the over-reaction with PLMO was caused mainly by insiders selling one day before earnings, and then the analyst downgrades afterwards. Note that a few analysts reit their buy on PLMO, one actually increasing estimates for 2006. My guess on this one is it will base here at around 24, then sit for a bit and move back up slowly. If I were holding I would expect to have to wait at least 6 months to score the original 15%, but I would carry along about a 45% double-down.

Good luck with it!

-Dave

[billyjoe]

Dave,
PLMO has advanced over ten points on four occasions in less than a thirty day period this year. It probably is an excellent long , but hard for me to think of it in that way now. They produce an almost unique state of the art cutting edge technological product with few competitors. They won't just fade away.
billyjoe

[Dave]

I have to agree. There main competitor looks to be Blackberry, and we use those at work. We have 15 of them, and 7 had to be sent in for service within 5 months, with VERY light use. They are crap. PLMO's lineup of products are very nice, and they enjoy wide distribution channels. While most companies are going for the normal handset market, PLMO continues to innovate in the tiny-computer-thing area. I read a recent report on worldwide trends in cell phone handsets, and a HUGE percentage gain is expected in the "smart device" category. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the projected growth over the next 3 years was supposed to be something like 800% or more. I keep up with that stuff because of my heavy UTSI investment, and I was reading the article in regards to a new UTSI(via Audiovox) smart device that runs the Windows OS for tiny-computer-things.

At this point, if I had funds, I would be looking to buy PLMO sometimes early next week, again, expecting about a 6 month hold.

Dave