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View Full Version : Mr.Market Beats Can-slim Without Using Stops!



billyjoe
12-13-2004, 12:21 PM
I challenge anyone to prove that stocks meeting IBD's canslim requirements could have outperformed Mr.Market's 76 picks since January 2002.
82.9% of Mr.Market's picks in the last 36 months were sold for a 15% or greater gain , yet virtually all would have been eliminated by canslim standards. 41 would have been sold at a stop/loss of 8%.This includes the 13 current open positions. 4 others thrown out for low initial price (under 15).
Here's how IBD would reject most of the remaining 31
1. Price was too extended (5% or more above pivot
2. Improper base pattern or length of base
3. Daily volume average too low ( under 100,000 shares)
4. Many weren't in the top 40 industry groups
5. If they were in a top group they weren't #1,2,or3
6. Ownership by mutual funds wasn't increasing
7. The market wasn't in a confirmed uptrend at the time of purchase

Mr.Market's picks cover a 36 month period. There are months when no stocks qualify for purchase according to canslim. How many IBD picks could have passed their test since January 2002?
I monitored "Breakouts" on the IBD forums several times in 2004 and honestly state that at least 50% fail.
Remember that Mr. Market's 28 winners eliminated by stops would not only lose all gains ,but would also have the 8% loss tacked on .

Here is a list of the 28 that weren't stopped out due to the Huge one's wisdom followed by their annualized gain, in order of their purchase.

1. GNWR 61%
2. ODFL 66
3. AVD 26
4. QSII 119
5. JFBC 44
6. HITK 207
7. OHB 20
8. ACMR 13
9. FRED 12
10. MDC 13
11. NARA 70
12. DKS 72
13. WRLD 72
14. GRMN 35
15. CLSR 233
16. AMHC 45
17. AXL 10
18. CCBI 82
19. HELE 60
20. URBN 75
21. DHI 61
22. CFC 61
23. SAFM 60
24. HAR 36
25. CHKE 8
26. DECK 71
27. WSB 13
28. SPF 25

A memorable quote from Mr.Market " As they taught me when I received my MBA from Wharton , diversification is a much better risk avoidance strategy than are stop losses".


Here are 6 great picks from Mr. Market and how far they ran from his purchase price. No stops were ever needed on these.

DHOM 15.30 - 40.34
RYL 100.35 - 222.00
LEND 13.75 - 48.50
MBT 48.50 - 155.90
WLS 54.10 - 93.75
JBSS 28.37 - 55.82
billyjoe

mrmarket
12-13-2004, 12:58 PM
wow...BJ..you are amazing!

Websman
12-13-2004, 01:59 PM
The proof is in writing, but you still couldn't convince some of the the folks on the IBD boards. They have their heads stuck in the sand.

Good job!