Jiesen tries to take over the world

[jiesen]

http://www.theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4049&n=1

Oh the humanity! See, Brain, this is why we have to take over the world today!

[billyjoe]

Once you go to the onion for news you'll never go back to the talking heads.
billyjoe

[jiesen]

OK, I'm gonna try to use this thread to (aside from taking over the world) disclose my equity trades to you guys, seeing how everyone else seems to be doing it...

I appreciate any comments, jabs or whatever else smack-talk you may have to say about my moves. It all helps me out- since I'm here trying to learn how to be a better investor, and the more information the better...

I'm selling the market today (<1% of port) by closing out an underperforming mutual fund.

To give perspective, here's an *approximate* breakdown of my positions:
25% cash&bonds
25% mutual funds
25% $$MM stocks
25% other stocks
other stocks include:
10% each in LJPC and XING
>1% each in MRK MSFT DRUG.OB SSRI
<1% each in MSPD CNXT
that's it.

I include in my $$MM stocks RRGB and WSB in addition to the stocks $$MM currently holds... Also, I have increased (at least doubled) positions in PRX BEL OFG GGI and NUS

[scifos]

>1% each in MRK MSFT DRUG.OB SSRI

Hmmm, I've taken several SSRIs and they all do terrible things to me :(

[jiesen]

Hmmm, I've taken several SSRIs and they all do terrible things to me :(
you mean prozac?

[jiesen]

actually LLY may not be a bad place to look for another drug stock... every analyst and their mother has downgraded it already, and with net assets around $10 and a 3% dividend, I wouldn't mind picking that up for around $50 or less... the drug companies are due for a comeback once this Vioxx debacle blows over. LLY should be trading at least at 70 by then. PFE is also a good buy now, IMO.

[scifos]

you mean prozac?
Celexa, Effexor, and Wellbutrin(which isn't an SSRI)

Thank god I'm not on any of them anymore and don't need to be.

[Websman]

http://www.theonion.com/news/index.php?issue=4049&n=1

Oh the humanity! See, Brain, this is why we have to take over the world today!


NARRRRFFFFFFFFFFFF!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thats un- - - - - - - Believeable!!!

IT'S TIME FOR ALL GOOD MICE TO RISE UP!!!!!!!!!!

I NEED A BEER!!!!

[jiesen]

Celexa, Effexor, and Wellbutrin(which isn't an SSRI)

Thank god I'm not on any of them anymore and don't need to be.
I'm glad to hear you're off of that junk. nobody should be taking any of it.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen, You're right , PFE could make us very well off depending upon how patient we can be with a stock. I don't think long term is very exciting holding a stock for a year is worse than watching paint dry. Most paints are completely dry in 24 hours or less, right? MRK is on my sh*# list this time for selling Zocor which is slowly killing me.
p.s. how about "jiesen's world" for a thread name
billyjoe

[jiesen]

nah, I think I like "Jiesen tries to take over the world" better. It may be a mouthful, but then again, you don't have to say it.

[Websman]

That's a pretty good mix of investment Jiensen.

I had a few mutual funds in my 457 account until I found that my stock picks were doing better, so I went all stocks and I'm doing better than ever. After closing out my SIRI position today, I'm up 24% for the year. I know funds are safer, but I would like to retire early. If I don't get to retire early I'll still be retired in 13 1/2 years at age 53, which is not too bad.

Even if I lost every dime of my account, I'd still be in good financial shape. My home is paid for and I have very little debt, so I'm willing to go out on a limb.

With the population getting older, I think medical stocks will continue to heat up. I can't wait until King of the Hill makes his next pick.

Bring on the Medical stocks!

[New-born baby]

Webs,

Why don't you get your world turning, too? We could call it, "As Web's World Turns" or some such a thing. Really, I would like to hear your next pick, your philosophy of picking, etc. Let the discussion begin!

[Websman]

Webs,

Why don't you get your world turning, too? We could call it, "As Web's World Turns" or some such a thing. Really, I would like to hear your next pick, your philosophy of picking, etc. Let the discussion begin!

I like that. I wonder if Mr Market would allow me to have my own thread? Am I worthy???

[jiesen]

I like that. I wonder if Mr Market would allow me to have my own thread? Am I worthy???
I second that... go for it Webs! We'll follow you like a Vulcan soap opera.

[Jaws57]

Go for it Webs, you got my vote!!!

Jaws57

[jiesen]

Bot XING (~1%) at 8.18 this morning. Looking for a quick trade- 0.50 cents up today and I'm out.

[Websman]

What are we going to do tomorrow Jiesen??? NARFFFFF!!!!!!!!

[jiesen]

Same thing we do every day Webs, try to take over the world!

(Actually, though, I am probably going to stock up on another HUGE $$MM pick tomorrow!)

[Websman]

Same thing we do every day Webs, try to take over the world!

(Actually, though, I am probably going to stock up on another HUGE $$MM pick tomorrow!)

You will surely profit with a Mr Market pick! A few more million $$$ in profits and we WILL take over the world!!!

[jiesen]

I dumped my short term XING shares for a $0.3 profit- not what I had hoped for, but then again, not a loss either. I was holding it longer than I wanted to, and I saw a pop today and decided to take it off the table rather than watch it drift back to 8.2 again... I might revisit that trade again if/when that happens, but for now, I'm looking around for other stocks I'm not already so heavy into.

[jiesen]

Just bought ACRG for 2.90 (a <1% position) If it pops, I'll roll the proceeds into CME, if not, I'll hang on for awhile... I'm planning to get 20-30% out of this.

[jiesen]

I added to my XING position today (about 1% of port) at 7.7. I'm planning to get about 15% from here within a week or so, but will cut a loss at around 5% on these shares. I believe a base has to form here around 7.6 or 7.5 at the lowest, and any slight pop will bring it back up to 8.5.

[mrmarket]

Just bought ACRG for 2.90 (a <1% position) If it pops, I'll roll the proceeds into CME, if not, I'll hang on for awhile... I'm planning to get 20-30% out of this.

ACRG has a mind of its own, and it keeps going UP UP UP!!

[jiesen]

yep, I'm at 15% already on this, but I don't think I'll sell yet, as it's on quite a tear.... At some point I will though, and put it back into either CME or CMN. (probably CME)

[jiesen]

can't wait for ACRG to hit, so in the meantime, I threw the dice and picked up an option for MAR230 CME for $1 ($100 for the contract). It's like the market's giving 30:1 odds against $$MM hitting his target in 2 months. I'll take those odds! 184 is just too low of a price for me to not jump at the chance.

[mrmarket]

can't wait for ACRG to hit, so in the meantime, I threw the dice and picked up an option for MAR230 CME for $1 ($100 for the contract). It's like the market's giving 30:1 odds against $$MM hitting his target in 2 months. I'll take those odds! 184 is just too low of a price for me to not jump at the chance.

Even if it doesn't get to 230, the option itself will increase in value if this thing ever gets turned around.

[jiesen]

no doubt. and if it's up just $10 from $230 by expiration, I'll be up 1000%. not a bad consolation prize...

by the way, my 3.74 limit for ACRG was just hit. I sold about 70% and let my 30% profit ride for a double, or triple. I was going to put the proceeds into CME but now that I have the option contract already, I'll take some more time to think about it... maybe it's going into the next $$MM pick, or maybe I'll short GMSV (just kidding about that)

[New-born baby]

can't wait for ACRG to hit, so in the meantime, I threw the dice and picked up an option for MAR230 CME for $1 ($100 for the contract). It's like the market's giving 30:1 odds against $$MM hitting his target in 2 months. I'll take those odds! 184 is just too low of a price for me to not jump at the chance.

Jiesen,

You've got guts! I looked into CME and noticed its $190 per share with a little $ .26 dividend every quarter, and my stomach won't take it. That's better than GOOG, but, after all, its just a sheet of paper. But I have to admit it makes a nice $2-4 move everyday, and if I knew where this beast was headed, it would make a good daytrade.

[jiesen]

Thanks NBB, though I'll have to disagree with you on the guts claim. I think CME at 184 was an obvious bargain, and if I really had the guts, I'd have just bought the stock when I knew it was cheap, instead of just buying a $100 option contract... having guts would have also got me into NGPS at 21.4 this morning. I'd probably have done a lot of stupid things, too, which could have wiped me out long ago. I'd like to say instead that I have patience. The direction of CME from now to March is obvious to me. Of course, what price we see tomorrow is anybody's guess. If I knew what someone would pay me tomorrow for ANY stock, it'd make a great trade, but unfortunately my crystal ball stopped working a loooong time ago.

by the way, CME stock is not just a piece of paper (technically, my piece is just a few bits on my broker's server), but a piece of a great business, with some very solid fundamentals... I suggest looking into it.

[bec1nj]

Jiesen-I am not much of a chartist, but it looks like CME might have a lot of support at 185 as it has been bouncing off that this week. Good luck!

[RL]

A friend of mine sent this. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was initially recommended on September 22 at 153, but the stock had been motoring higher before that time for more than a year. We saw big future potential from its myriad futures and options products, and the stock did perform well for a few months. But the market correction has been hard on CME, with the stock diving on big volume many times. Yesterday it fell through support around 190, and we think that's a sign that the Merc's run is over for now. So we advise selling; if you bought with us, your profit should be above 20%. SELL.

[jiesen]

thanks, Bruce. I'm no chartist either, but even I saw the price bottoming out at 184 on this dip. up 6% today, which isn't bad. just 3 more days of 6-7% increases and it's back over 230, and my call is in the money... not too inconceivable, is it? I'd sure like to see that $100 turn into $1000 (or more).

and RL, be sure to tell your friend that $$MM bought this at $225, so selling at $190 is bound to look pretty silly in 6-8 weeks.

[bec1nj]

Jiesen-I will be rooting for you; if you want another one (may be boring but who cares) that seems to have a pattern, I have a really good friend who says the chart for NLY is a classic up and down situation.
Bruce

[New-born baby]

Bruce,

What does "NLY has a classic up and down situation" mean?

NLY is a good stock with a nice dividend, and I'd like to grab a chunk below $18 if I could.

[bec1nj]

The reason my friend is so high on it (NLY) is that if you look at the graph of it over the last few years, it goes up to 20,down to 16, and keep bouncing up and down. I don't know that much about the company truthfully so can't recommend or not recommend this one---she is just looking at the chart pattern. Good luck no matter what you do!
Bruce

[RL]

Talked to my friend? Told me to dump cme didn't do It followed your thinking
sure am glad.

[jiesen]

Talked to my friend? Told me to dump cme didn't do It followed your thinking
sure am glad.

good choice. CME is announcing record futures volume today, exchanges in Euroland are being bid up in merger talks, I see 230 coming for CME right around the corner... let's wait and see for this one, eh?

by the way, thanks $$MM for finding this pick, it's almost as HUGE as you are!

[jiesen]

OK, I'm on the NGPS bandwagon. With my ACRG proceeds, I put a limit order in for 21.5 and it hit just now. I think this should turn around soon enough.

[stocks54]

I threw the dice and picked up an option for MAR230 CME for $1 ($100 for the contract).

Nice move jiesen,

I missed by 10 cents. Otherwise I would have made 200%. My bid was 10 cents less..

[jiesen]

Nice move jiesen,

I missed by 10 cents. Otherwise I would have made 200%. My bid was 10 cents less..

yep, that's what market orders are for. sorry you missed the ride. it's been fun so far!

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
I've been trying to research the amazing GMSV, but keep running into outrageous facts such as: has been sold under 5 different symbols before GMSV and 3 different symbols at the same time. Was once known as AFRT or was it FART? Apparently as their symbol changes so does their expertise. They once were the global leader of fire retardant chemicals. Now they are the global leader in materials and services. I guess that's what IBD means when they say "go with the leaders in the group".
billyjoe

p.s. they just bought out a real good company for 9.95 so there might be a big advance soon

[jiesen]

well, whatever they paid for it, they got a real steal, since they paid in GMSV stock! by the time the ink was dry, the stock had probably fallen another 50% or so.

anyway, I just sold my ~1% XING shares for 8.25 (felt bad about passing up the opportunity to sell at 8.6 yesterday morning), about a half dollar gain from where I got them. I put the money into NGPS, to double up at $20. I'm still convinced NGPS is going to pop back up any day now. Besides, it's a good thing for me to diversify my communications holdings, since I'm so overweight in XING right now.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,

Thanks for the info on NGPS. I wanted to ask you if you got stopped out of this stock because I know the buy point was 21.50, but I didn't want to be rude and ask.

Let me ask you this: what is your exit strategy if it falls to 18.50, or to 16.50? Will you still ride this thing down? I just would like your perspective on exit strategies to the downside.

Thanks!

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

Thanks for the info on NGPS. I wanted to ask you if you got stopped out of this stock because I know the buy point was 21.50, but I didn't want to be rude and ask.

Let me ask you this: what is your exit strategy if it falls to 18.50, or to 16.50? Will you still ride this thing down? I just would like your perspective on exit strategies to the downside.

Thanks!

Actually I'm still working on the exit strategy. I am sort of rushing into this, since the price is so good here. When I know enough about it to decide whether to put a stop in or not, I'll let you know. For right now though, I'm not selling NGPS without some serious bad news. FWIW, one of my tenants is a NVTL employee, and has given me some good info on this company, and I may try to hit him up for some more.

[jiesen]

I sold some XING today at the close (~1% position and at about breakeven for these) to reduce exposure a bit and free up some cash, since I think that the market may be getting ahead of itself. I'll probably use it to buy something else tomorrow or next week... or I'll just sit on the cash and wait for a large drop in prices that's sure to happen pretty soon, and pick up something on the cheap. I may just pick the shares of XING back up if it gets back down to the low 7's.

well, I'm rambling on a bit too much now, so I'll just shut up.

[MickyMouse]

I sold some XING today at the close (~1% position and at about breakeven for these) to reduce exposure a bit and free up some cash, since I think that the market may be getting ahead of itself. I'll probably use it to buy something else tomorrow or next week... or I'll just sit on the cash and wait for a large drop in prices that's sure to happen pretty soon, and pick up something on the cheap. I may just pick the shares of XING back up if it gets back down to the low 7's.

well, I'm rambling on a bit too much now, so I'll just shut up.

No, it is never too much. I enjoyed and learned a lot from your posts. Thx. Please keep going. What's the old saying? The more the merry.

Micky

[jiesen]

Well, I found a place for the XING money in LJPC today at 1.56.

[canaveraldan]

Amazon is down 16% at $35.

[jiesen]

Amazon is down 16% at $35.

I'd say go for it. AMZN makes money like like a mint. The 16% drop isn't justified by the reasons given in the latest news. Bezos knows what he's doing with the capital expendatures. They are the leader in the online sales of books, and probably next to Ebay for everything else. I don't think that's likely to change... if it does, then I'd think twice about AMZN. That said, I don't own any, since I don't really follow the company. Maybe I should, and if I had been paying attention to it, I may have bought AMZN today.

Anyway, that's just my opinion- please don't base any decision on what I say!

[jiesen]

sold NGPS today (half of my position) at 24.5. This is just under my target of 25-30, but it is much sooner than I was planning to get it, so I'm just taking it now while the offer's on the table. I'll get more out of the other half, I'm sure, but I'll rest easy knowing I already got my 20% out of these shares... even if we go sub 20 now, I'm still ahead on NGPS, and at that point, I may just reenter for another go.

[jiesen]

I just put the proceeds from the NGPS sale into AFT at 3.4. Trying to further diversify my communications holdings. Also, I like the 1000%+ revenue increase.

I think I need a stop on this one though, probably at 15-20%. I'll have to figure that out tonight.

[jiesen]

sold another ~1% position in XING today to further reduce my exposure to it...

[jiesen]

my limit of 4.3 just got taken out while I was at lunch. I just threw that out there just in case... wasn't really expecting it to hit, but shoot, 30% in a week... I'll take it! I don't know if I should hold onto the rest or not, since I could get 4.4 for it right now...

what to do? I like this kind of dilemma.

[jiesen]

I just bought back into NGPS, (doubling my position) for $20. I think this could easily go up to $30 and beyond, but I'll take $24 again if we get there soon enough...

[jiesen]

I just put ~1% position in DCS (a dividend & income fund) for long-term, probably at least 5-10 years unless something really unexpected happens. Got in at $19.1.

[jiesen]

I just bought another CME contract (Mar 230) for $1. I thought last month that CME would trade above 230 by March, and I still do now. I admit this is just gambling, but I still like these odds.

[jiesen]

Just bought back some XING (~1% position) at 7.08. Had the limit order out there, and wasn't really expecting it to hit, but it did... I'll probably sell this when it gets back to 8 or so. I am considering putting a stop on these shares around 6.5.

[Websman]

Good luck on XING. It looks like you're doing well so far this year.

Call me a chicken, but I'm staying out of the market for now.

[jiesen]

Good luck on XING. It looks like you're doing well so far this year.

Call me a chicken, but I'm staying out of the market for now.

Thanks, I might very well need it. Yes, my trades have been working out pretty well lately, but my overall port is another story... remember, XING and LJPC are (and have been for over a year) my largest stock holdings.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XING&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ljpc

If it weren't for $$MM here, I'd be having my ass handed to me by the other Mr. Market.

The market's always scary, but you have to be all in at the (seemingly) worst possible time if you want to make the most out of it. But everyone needs a break sometimes, so enjoy it now, I know you'll be back in it sooner or later!

[Websman]

You make a good point about getting in at the worst looking times. I think that now is the time to start buying oversold stocks. I'll be looking for bargains over the next week or so. It's time for me to quit daydreaming and get back to work...

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,

Here's an honest question: what to do with NGPS now? Its moving upwards today and may hit $20. Is your target still $30? Runner says it may be range bound at $24. What's your call? Anybody who can handle MRK like you did ought to know a lot more than I.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

Here's an honest question: what to do with NGPS now? Its moving upwards today and may hit $20. Is your target still $30? Runner says it may be range bound at $24. What's your call? Anybody who can handle MRK like you did ought to know a lot more than I.

My thought for now is to hold it. The price action is somewhat disappointing to me, dropping below 20, but I think investors are just spooked into selling right now, and it'll take more than a $2 drop to spook me out of NGPS. The CEO states that they're on track to make record profits, and I believe him. I don't see anything new since we were at $20 that would make me less likely to hold on for at least 25-30 near term. Long term, I expect to see this back to making new highs in the 50-60 range within a few years.

Sure, I'd rather be in the green on this than at $19, but when you consider that I moved money out of XING at $8+ to pick up NGPS at $20, I'm still ahead on the switch... I wish I had traded even more of it for NGPS! (I still might)

Anyway, that's my thought on NGPS. Right now, I'm taking a look at AGYS. What's your opinion on this one?

[jiesen]

closed the ~1% XING position at 6.5 today. It hit my mental stop, and I took some time to think about it, but had to suck it up and take the loss ($0.6). Of course the minute I did, XING moved back up to 6.6, but those are the breaks.

Anyway, I bought some Jun $10 calls for 0.3 just in case, so I won't be kicking myself too hard when this bounces back to $12 overnight.

[jiesen]

Bought a very small ELN position today at 5.6

I figure nobody else wants it right now, but it has to be worth something! When everyone else figures that out, I'll sell it back to them.

[New-born baby]

Bought a very small ELN position today at 5.6

I figure nobody else wants it right now, but it has to be worth something! When everyone else figures that out, I'll sell it back to them.


Jiesen,

I didn't think MRK was a good buy, and you made the big bucks off of it.
I don't like ELN at this time, so you ought to be able to retire off of it.

But my observation is that it has had huge volume this week, 150m shares on Monday, 99m Tuesday, 75m Wed and another 125m yesterday, plus todays 75m, and that screams [no whisper on this chart] to me that the institutions are leaving ELN. If Tysabri doesn't come back, they have nothing to sell. And their debt was downgraded yesterday.

Wishing all the best for your investment in ELN.

[scifos]

Tysabri will be back on the market for sure. Probably this year. Now, it's not what it used to be, but I think right now going long isn't a bad move. Just don't bet the farm.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

I didn't think MRK was a good buy, and you made the big bucks off of it.
I don't like ELN at this time, so you ought to be able to retire off of it.

But my observation is that it has had huge volume this week, 150m shares on Monday, 99m Tuesday, 75m Wed and another 125m yesterday, plus todays 75m, and that screams [no whisper on this chart] to me that the institutions are leaving ELN. If Tysabri doesn't come back, they have nothing to sell. And their debt was downgraded yesterday.

Wishing all the best for your investment in ELN.

I don't think they're leaving anymore. I think they've already left. But when Tysabri comes back on the market, or when the data's analyzed to show that risk/benefit is still acceptable, they'll be back, and ELN will be back to $20 again. $5.6 is a pure panic price- $7 might be fair for the time being. Any lower though, and I may panic too, since ELN is on shaky ground with their high debt- but also with the debt downgraded yesterday, that just means it's going at a discount now. But the show will go on, and the bills will get paid, I'm 51% sure of it.

Oh, and I haven't sold MRK yet, so I wouldn't say I've made big bucks until that chicken hatches, so to speak. The only thing I've made so far on MRK is a dividend, which isn't exactly huge money, but not too shabby either.

[jiesen]

got out today at 6.5. I am sure this will be higher eventually, but getting 15% just over one weekend will be enough for me right now.

I may get back in if it gets back under 6 (that was a pretty insane price I got). But for now I'll just be happy holding my profit.

Good luck with the short, Spike!

[New-born baby]

got out today at 6.5. I am sure this will be higher eventually, but getting 15% just over one weekend will be enough for me right now.

I may get back in if it gets back under 6 (that was a pretty insane price I got). But for now I'll just be happy holding my profit.

Good luck with the short, Spike!

Jiesen,

Is "Jiesen" German for "genius?" I wouldn't have touched ELN with a ten foot pole . . . .

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

Is "Jiesen" German for "genius?" I wouldn't have touched ELN with a ten foot pole . . . .

Well, it seemed like nobody would. But somebody had to, and it might as well be me!

[spikefader]

Nice trade on ELN! :)

P.S Thanks, but I'm not liking it short so much now. I'd like it to form it's flag pretty quickly and fall by eod Friday :D

[jiesen]

Nice trade on ELN! :)

P.S Thanks, but I'm not liking it short so much now. I'd like it to form it's flag pretty quickly and fall by eod Friday :D

Thanks, Spike! It was a risky play, I admit, which is why I only put a small chunk of change down. But I'm glad I did.

[jiesen]

Well, it seemed like nobody would. But somebody had to, and it might as well be me!

Ah, here's the idea I was going for:

"And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

Source, anyone? I think everyone should have read it by now.

[New-born baby]

Ah, here's the idea I was going for:

"And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful."

Source, anyone? I think everyone should have read it by now.

Jiesen,

You've just taken the fear out of me, and now I am greedy. Let's short this dog!

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

You've just taken the fear out of me, and now I am greedy. Let's short this dog!

Patience, NBB! There is a time to short this stock, but it isn't this time.

For me, a stock has to be severly overvalued, and people should be so raving mad about the stock you can see them foaming at the mouth when they talk about it (see Jim Cramer at his finest), in order for it to be a short candidate... not just a dog.

Here are 2 of my past shorts:

CNXT at 128 in 2000

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CNXT&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

TASR at 120 (30) in April 2004

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TASR&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Now those are my kinds of shorts. Which one do you think worked out best for me?

[New-born baby]

Patience, NBB! There is a time to short this stock, but it isn't this time.

For me, a stock has to be severly overvalued, and people should be so raving mad about the stock you can see them foaming at the mouth when they talk about it (see Jim Cramer at his finest), in order for it to be a short candidate... not just a dog.

Here are 2 of my past shorts:

CNXT at 128 in 2000

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CNXT&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

TASR at 120 (30) in April 2004

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TASR&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Now those are my kinds of shorts. Which one do you think worked out best for me?

Jiesen,

Must have been CNXT, although there was a good time to short TASR.

I do agree with you: best to short stocks Jim Cramer is foaming at the mouth about.

Just make sure you put up your next call on the board so we can learn something. And thanks!

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

Must have been CNXT, although there was a good time to short TASR.

I do agree with you: best to short stocks Jim Cramer is foaming at the mouth about.

Just make sure you put up your next call on the board so we can learn something. And thanks!

Nope, I made money on the TASR short, though technically, I didn't go short. I bought puts instead. I actually did short CNXT at 128, but I chickened out and covered at 132 for a loss. Shorting is serious business with potentially unlimited losses. Even when you're right, you can be bankrupted before you're vindicated. Had I bought puts at that time instead of shorting, I'd have capped any liability and would probably not have let the price fluctuation shake me out. I could have made a killing on that trade!

Don't worry, I'll put all of my calls on the board, but I warn you not to follow me, because doing so may be hazardous to your financial health.

[MickyMouse]

Don't worry, I'll put all of my calls on the board, but I warn you not to follow me, because doing so may be hazardous to your financial health.

Thanks for the warning label. These days we get a lot of from such as MRK maybe ELN.

Micky

[jiesen]

Just sold out of CNXT today at 1.66. I've decided that this one probably isn't going anywhere after all.

[jiesen]

I put the proceeds from the CNXT sale into LJPC at 1.2. Both are risky, but I think the potential payoff for LJPC is far better.

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

I didn't think MRK was a good buy, and you made the big bucks off of it.
I don't like ELN at this time, so you ought to be able to retire off of it.

But my observation is that it has had huge volume this week, 150m shares on Monday, 99m Tuesday, 75m Wed and another 125m yesterday, plus todays 75m, and that screams [no whisper on this chart] to me that the institutions are leaving ELN. If Tysabri doesn't come back, they have nothing to sell. And their debt was downgraded yesterday.

Wishing all the best for your investment in ELN.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ELN&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Hmmm, I guess 5.6 was an even better entry than I thought. Maybe I could have retired off of that...

[New-born baby]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ELN&t=5d&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
Hmmm, I guess 5.6 was an even better entry than I thought. Maybe I could have retired off of that...

Jiesen,

I told you: you're a genius with drug stocks. Anybody that can buy the bottom on ELN is a gutsy genius.

[jiesen]

http://www.centman.com/PDF/ValueInvDec2004.pdf

[jiesen]

Just bought AMLN at 21.4 looking for a quick buck or two. (about 2% position)

[jiesen]

in one more attempt to catch the bottom here, I'm adding to my XING (~1%) today at about $6.

[jiesen]

in one more attempt to catch the bottom here, I'm adding to my XING (~1%) today at about $6.

sold the 1% XING position today for $6, breaking even. I decided that I didn't catch the bottom after all, and that trying to do so on XING was probably not a good idea. I'll continue with my strategy of reducing my XING position, but definitely at higher prices than $6...

[jiesen]

hmmm, just when I cough back up the shares, XING finally finds some support at $6. maybe I did make a good call, and should have held on. oh well, it happens...

[jiesen]

Just bought AMLN at 21.4 looking for a quick buck or two. (about 2% position)

Damn, AMLN hit my mental stop today, so I sold out at 19.5. Lost 10% on that trade... ouch, that stings! I thought that AMLN would be a sure thing after finally getting approval after 18 years. Well that'll teach me.

[jiesen]

sold half of my NGPS at 19 today (cutting my losses from 20), decided to put it into the next $$MM pick instead.

[jiesen]

thought I'd mention that CGTK popped up on my radar, after dropping 50% today on a bad trial result. at 2.60 they're trading just .30 above cash on hand. may be worth a look at this level...

I am sure it's a technical nightmare, but from a value perspective... maybe?

[spikefader]

thought I'd mention that CGTK popped up on my radar, after dropping 50% today on a bad trial result. at 2.60 they're trading just .30 above cash on hand. may be worth a look at this level...

I am sure it's a technical nightmare, but from a value perspective... maybe?
LOL oh ya. Good one to learn from though. Never underestimate a channel break, and channel short. Look at the genius entry.

Just say you were long this stock, and you saw that channel break, and you were clever and you hedged with puts, both at the channel break, and at the channel short week, you would absolutely be laughing at your options profit, and if you loved the stock that much, you can take those profits, and add a new position to your existing one way down here, and ride it up for a gap fill opportunity. But if you didn't hedge, you'd be kicking the cat, the dog, the wall, and anything else that got in your way.

It's a jungle out there. Build a safehouse when you need to.

[jiesen]

LOL oh ya. Good one to learn from though. Never underestimate a channel break, and channel short. Look at the genius entry.

Just say you were long this stock, and you saw that channel break, and you were clever and you hedged with puts, both at the channel break, and at the channel short week, you would absolutely be laughing at your options profit, and if you loved the stock that much, you can take those profits, and add a new position to your existing one way down here, and ride it up for a gap fill opportunity. But if you didn't hedge, you'd be kicking the cat, the dog, the wall, and anything else that got in your way.

It's a jungle out there. Build a safehouse when you need to.

LOL! Great analysis, Spike!

[Websman]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...

[spikefader]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...I'll take that bet! :D

[jiesen]

I think ELN is going to bounce again...

if it bounces off of 2, you can bet I'll be riding it!

[jiesen]

buying the calls to cover a sale of a 1% position in XING, which I'll do either at 6.0 or 5.5, whichever comes first. I'm trying to lower my exposure to this stock, but keep my bases covered in case a good ER comes out by June. I still think this could be a $15 stock in a matter of days or weeks.

[jiesen]

XING blew past my 5.5 stop, so I ended up selling at 5.2. Actually could have gotten 6.0 last week but was too slow pulling the trigger and missed it! Should have put my limit in earlier... ah well.

[jiesen]

I just bought half of my AMLN position (about 1% of port) back at 19.2. Going for another shot at this big game of chicken before their approval "date" of April 30. I see the momentum has turned back up, and will probably keep going throughout the week as approval hopefuls pile in. I'll probably sell at 21 or 22... at 18 I *may* pick up more, but at 16 I'll cut bait and run away.

Changed my mind on my AMLN stop. I'm not selling at 16 with an approval in the bag! New target is 26, and will probably be moved up again on further clarification from FDA. It appears the approval was partial, but that will not stop AMLN from receiving full approval 6-8 months from now. They can still sell the drug in the meantime... the only difference is now they can only make $2B in the first year instead of $3B.

I'd be the last person anyone should listen to for investment advice, but I think this is the best opportunity I've seen in a long time for an approved drug at a discount. Drug is approved and stock drops 10%. Unbelievable!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050429/def012.html?.v=8

UPDATE 2-FDA OKs Lilly-Amylin drug for type 2 diabetes
Fri Apr 29, 2005 09:19 AM ET
(Updates share price, changes dateline from CHICAGO) By Toni Clarke

NEW YORK, April 29 (Reuters) - A drug derived from lizard saliva has been approved by U.S. regulators to treat diabetes in patients who have not responded to other treatments, the drug's developers, Eli Lilly and Co. (LLY.N: Quote (http://www.investor.reuters.com/FullQuote.aspx?ticker=LLY.N&target=%2fstocks%2fquickinfo%2ffullquote), Profile (http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyOverview.aspx?ticker=LLY.N), Research (http://www.investor.reuters.com/StockReports.aspx?ticker=LLY.N)) and Amylin Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AMLN.O: Quote (http://www.investor.reuters.com/FullQuote.aspx?ticker=AMLN.O&target=%2fstocks%2fquickinfo%2ffullquote), Profile (http://www.investor.reuters.com/CompanyOverview.aspx?ticker=AMLN.O), Research (http://www.investor.reuters.com/StockReports.aspx?ticker=AMLN.O)) , said on Friday.

The drug, exenatide, to be sold under the brand name Byetta, was approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration as a twice-a-day injectable add-on therapy for patients with type II diabetes -- the most common form -- whose blood sugar is not sufficiently controlled by two other treatments.

The drug is made from the saliva of the Gila monster lizard, which lives in the Arizona desert and eats just four times a year. Exenatide is the first of a new class of drugs known as incretin mimetics. It mimics hormones, released in the human gut in response to food, that help regulate glucose levels.

About 18 million people in the United States have diabetes, or 6.2 percent of the population. Diabetics are unable to produce enough insulin or cannot process their insulin properly, resulting in dangerously high blood-sugar levels, which can lead to heart disease, blindness and amputations if not treated.

The FDA did not approve the drug as a stand-alone treatment, which would have represented a bigger market. The agency said any additional data the companies present in order to win approval as a stand-alone therapy would be reviewed within six months.

Amylin shares fell 38 cents, or 2 percent, to $17.90 in pre-market trading on the Inet electronic brokerage network. Lilly's shares were unchanged at $58. (Additional reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago)

[jiesen]

with the market acting like it is, I decided to lock in gains on RRGB at 49 and maybe cut back some more in other stocks too... probably XING or PRX. OFG is depressing me but it's way too low to consider selling it now.

cash is definitely where to be- that's the only consolation I've got right now.

[jiesen]

I cut back on my XING once again at 5.1 (1% of port) and also sold out of AFT (also 1%) at 3.4. Instead I'm taking a 1% position in UTSI, to hopefully take advantage of a severe overreaction to the recent decline in revenues. The company is trading far below book value right now, and if they can keep above water through restructuring, they should have no problem bringing the stock price right back up to 20 or so. It's a big risk, though, so if it falls any further (below 7), I'll probably bail and put the money back in AFT, if that one's still trading in the 3's. The goal here is to spread some of my XING money around so I'm not overexposed to it anymore, but I want to stay in the telecom sector so I don't miss the inevitable rebound.

[Websman]

How about ELN? Do you think we could make a few bucks in it?

[jiesen]

How about ELN? Do you think we could make a few bucks in it?

yeah, I think there's a good chance to profit from ELN long-term from this price, but short-term is anyone's guess. at 3 it was the PERFECT time to get in, and I can't believe we just stood by and passed it up. I guess I was waiting for a 3rd shoe to drop or something, and I missed it. oh well, I'm not putting more into drugs right now, and actually that thinking is also part of what had me hesitate at 3.

anyway, if ELN is your thing, don't let me stop you from buying it just because I won't.

ELN has to figure out how to turn their 1.5B in cash into 2B before their debt is due. if they can do that, and get a decent pipeline, I think they'll be back to 20 or 30 again. Tysabri is pretty much taken out of the equation at this point. if they somehow do manage to get it back on track, we'll probably see 50 again, and that would just be icing on the cake. ELN is far more than just a 1-trick pony, imo.

[Websman]

I'll buy a few shares of ELN if it drops back some more.

[jiesen]

I just sold the shares of OFG I picked up after the big drop for a small loss, used the proceeds to double up in WSB instead. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get this for 9.15, and I wasn't quite feeling the OFG trade... perhaps there's more to fall on that one, but WSB is even more undervalued here, in my book, so if I put more back in OFG, it'll be after selling these WSB shares at 11-12.

[Websman]

I just sold the shares of OFG I picked up after the big drop for a small loss, used the proceeds to double up in WSB instead. I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get this for 9.15, and I wasn't quite feeling the OFG trade... perhaps there's more to fall on that one, but WSB is even more undervalued here, in my book, so if I put more back in OFG, it'll be after selling these WSB shares at 11-12.

I'll have to take a look at WSB.
I'm seriously considering buying some ELN while it's down. This could be a huge one.

[mrmarket]

LU may be restoring some shattered dreams as well.

[Websman]

LU may be restoring some shattered dreams as well.

I'm sure Jim Cramer is happy about LU making a .35 move.

[jiesen]

reduced my XING position again (~1%) and put it into WSB, since if $9 is a great price, $8 is even better. I'll start worrying if it hits 6.

C'mon, it's a bank! how can a bank with $50M in net assets earning $20M per year be worth less than $60M?

yeah, the bad construction loans are troubling, but they don't have ALL their assets tied up in them...

http://www.twsb.com/up_docs/10qjan.pdf

[spikefader]

careful dude; it's a jungle out there. trade what you see not what you think, and if you see it's bullish, then make sure you set a safety net. Good luck!
http://img159.echo.cx/img159/4716/wsbweek0ya.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

careful dude; it's a jungle out there. trade what you see not what you think, and if you see it's bullish, then make sure you set a safety net. Good luck!
http://img159.echo.cx/img159/4716/wsbweek0ya.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us/)

yeah, thanks for the good advice... i've been wrong before (just look at the XING I'm selling here) and it can get costly, but I'm calling this one like I see it, and it looks to me that someone is just dumping this stock and handing me a gift. I'm taking it.

And as for a net, I plan to hold this one as long as it takes. The assets in the bank will be my net.

[jiesen]

took a very small position (<1%) in GFCI today. the market's been boring me to tears lately, so I decided to give the pennies a shot, looking for at least double or nothing on this one.

[jiesen]

well, my GFCI double is almost here already... that was quick! hmmm, to stay to go? decisions, decisions.

[B.J]

Good job, Jiesen. You got nads of steel with those penny plays :D Glad it's paying off.

[Websman]

Good job, Jiesen. You got nads of steel with those penny plays :D Glad it's paying off.

I love penny stocks. It's a great way to make money quick, if you have nerves of steel...or are a Vulcan.

[jiesen]

I cut back on my XING once again at 5.1 (1% of port) and also sold out of AFT (also 1%) at 3.4. Instead I'm taking a 1% position in UTSI, to hopefully take advantage of a severe overreaction to the recent decline in revenues. The company is trading far below book value right now, and if they can keep above water through restructuring, they should have no problem bringing the stock price right back up to 20 or so. It's a big risk, though, so if it falls any further (below 7), I'll probably bail and put the money back in AFT, if that one's still trading in the 3's. The goal here is to spread some of my XING money around so I'm not overexposed to it anymore, but I want to stay in the telecom sector so I don't miss the inevitable rebound.

UTSI is finally acting like it should. it made 8 so far (I'm up about 10% now). may still have been better off sticking with AFT and/or XING at 3.4 and 5, but we'll see...

[jiesen]

Got out with a 15% profit. I'm sure it's still undervalued here, but I'm happy with my quick profit here, and am actually still more interested in owning some AFT, so I may put it back into that, or just hold onto my money for awhile. I'll see what the market does, and maybe take some time to think about it.

[jiesen]

I decided to stick the money back in AFT. I believe this one has the potential to be a huge gainer, so I'm going to step in here. today's news isn't bad either (300,000 phone deal in Sri Lanka). Saved some cash so if it drops further to the low 3's I may pick up some more, but if it doesn't I'll still be happy with what I have.

[jiesen]

took a very small position (<1%) in GFCI today. the market's been boring me to tears lately, so I decided to give the pennies a shot, looking for at least double or nothing on this one.

sold my GFCI today for about 140% gain in under a month.

can you do that? you, you, YOU?

that was fun, I plan on doing that again!

[Websman]

sold my GFCI today for about 140% gain in under a month.

can you do that? you, you, YOU?

that was fun, I plan on doing that again!


You are truly huge!

[B.J]

Pretty huge for a mouse :D

[jiesen]

man, if I had that kind of cash, I'd take over the world first, not try to ship it off by DHL.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/topofthehour.aspx?StoryId=3274

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/images/news/newspics/04-21-2005/fedbig.jpg 2 Brits nabbed with $3 trillion in fake US fed notes


The National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) on Thursday said it has arrested two British nationals with $3 trillion fake US federal bank notes in their possession, DZMM reported.

NBI Director Reynaldo Wycoco identified the suspects as Paul Edward John Flavell and Sam Beany. The two listed their address as Unit 305 CEO Apartments in Jupiter Street, Makati City.

The suspects were not physically present during the press conference called by Wycoco at the NBI office in Taft Avenue, Manila. Only the suspects' photographs were shown to reporters.

Wycoco said NBI agents have also launched a manhunt for two other British nationals involved in the syndicate.

The two other suspects are Seki Mehmet Bayram and Peter Whittkamp.

Flavell and Beany's arrest came following a tip from international cargo forwarder DHL Philippines Inc. on April 14, Wycoco said.

The tip was about a shipment consigned to two foreigners, which was pending at the company warehouse.

The forwarder said the cargo was bound for Zurich, Switzerland.

The NBI dispatched a team to the DHL office. The agents were able to chance upon the suspects as they were paying the airway bill amounting to P53,967.

Company records show the suspects paid using a credit card.

Wycoco said Flavell and Beany did not resist arrest after they were made to open the cast-iron boxes containing bogus federal bank reserve certificates.

[jiesen]

I bought some July XING calls today to replace the June calls that expired on me last week.

I don't want to miss out if the ER turns out to be huge... although I am cutting down my XING stake, I still want a piece of the upside, just in case.

[New-born baby]

Junkyard Dog,

Hey, SCHN is 50% off, and I have a bottom figured at around $22. Target is $28-$30. What do you think?

[Websman]

Junkyard Dog,

Hey, SCHN is 50% off, and I have a bottom figured at around $22. Target is $28-$30. What do you think?

I'd be afraid to buy SCHN up until it proves to me that it's no longer in a stage 4 downtrend.

[Websman]

I'd be afraid to buy SCHN up until it proves to me that it's no longer in a stage 4 downtrend.

But then again, Cashmaker is making some very good points about why it's a buy.
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=20940&postcount=145

[New-born baby]

I'd be afraid to buy SCHN up until it proves to me that it's no longer in a stage 4 downtrend.

Wow, Jiesen. You're a hard sell.

I guess I'll have to bring Perry Mason in here to prove to you that $22 is the bottom. I suppose you'll want Paul Drake to do some investigating for you. (Cashmaker isn't good enough). :D

Can you throw a chart up here and show me where the Junkyard Dog thinks the bottom is going to be? I would like to see your thinking.

And what kind of proof do you want?

[jiesen]

I actually have looked at SCHN a few times, since Cashmaker keeps bringing it up. So far it does look pretty cheap to me. I'm just not too interested though, but it's only because I'm just not generally interested in steel production. Maybe I should be....(take a look at MT for instance) anyway, I will look at it more closely tonight and let you know what I find.

[jiesen]

Wow, Jiesen. You're a hard sell.


um, that wasn't me. but yeah, I suppose I am a hard sell. I consider that a good thing.

[New-born baby]

um, that wasn't me. but yeah, I suppose I am a hard sell. I consider that a good thing.

I am looking forward to you give us the goods on SCHN.

[Websman]

um, that wasn't me. but yeah, I suppose I am a hard sell. I consider that a good thing.


How could you confuse a mouse and a Vulcan? :)

[New-born baby]

How could you confuse a mouse and a Vulcan? :)

It was easy; I just looked at the ears, and they seemed the same . . . .

[jiesen]

ok, well I didn't manage to do as much tonight as I had hoped on the SCHN research, but I'll tell you what I think of it so far:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SCHN

mostly I'm using data available from Yahoo! so you'll have to take it with a grain of salt... this stuff is usually pretty stale.

book value is what I'd look at first. it's a pretty good sign for me that P/B is 1.4, though I'd prefer it to be a bit lower, perhaps 1.2 (if you are Ben Grahm, that's the maximum), before I'd really want to buy it without looking at too many other factors.

debt seems to be quite under control, and the profitability is certainly there, with $5 EPS. The major question I would have is whether they can keep up that profitability, or even improve it. So far they've been doing great, with 20% profit margins, 30%+ rev growth, and almost a 100% earnings growth. But can they keep that growth up? Will high energy costs finally catch up with them? Those are the details I'd need to find out before I would put my money into SCHN at a 1.4 P/B. It may be different at 1.0 or 1.1.

I'd need to have a much better understanding of the steel industry to buy this at its current price. I couldn't tell you whether there will be a continuing demand increase for steel at these higher prices or not. I know the developing world can't get enough of the stuff, but how much will they be able to spend, really? The limit may be fast approaching, so you need to be careful investing in a company that is so sensitive to these issues... and maybe find out more about this market before sinking money into it.

It looks like earnings are due out for SCHN fairly soon. A good idea, imo, would be to wait for any decision on this until after earnings are out and you can see how the business is actually doing right now, with the increased energy costs. You need to remember that steel is a cyclical industry, and very dependent on the cost of energy. Since oil is at an all time high right now, it makes sense that profits here should take a hit. If somehow SCHN manages another quarter of increased revenues and profits despite these increasing costs, then I might think about buying... but I'd still demand a good price for this. I believe that the price you're seeing here, although it may look tempting, is lower than most companies with these stats for a reason-


from TMF:
----
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05051206.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y
Mr. Market is not a complete idiotI know, we give moody Mr. Market a lot of grief around here at the Fool. We call him irrational (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2003/commentary031002JF.htm), nearsighted (http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2000/foth001228.htm), and a thousand other derogatives. But he's not a complete idiot. He's been around a lot longer than you or I have. And over that time, he's developed a pretty good feel for how certain industries are affected by cyclical trends over the long term.

So poke fun at the market if you will (really, try it -- it's fun!). But at the same time, listen to what it's telling you when it prices companies such as Schnitzer Steel (Nasdaq: SCHN) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=SCHN), Ryerson Tull (NYSE: RT) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=RT), and Commercial Metals (Nasdaq: CMC) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=CMC) all at price-to-earnings ratios (P/Es) of less than 10. I mean, really, the average S&P 500 company is selling for a historically pricey 20 times earnings right now. Yet in the steel industry, year-over-year earnings increases in the hundreds (if not thousands) of percents merit earnings multiples of just half that? Something's up here, Fools. And that something is the market telling you that the steel earnings you see today are ephemeral, the relative increases over last year's numbers -- anomalies.

In short, through the language of earnings multiples, Mr. Market is whispering in your ear those famous words: "Don't believe the hype." A downturn is coming. These earnings will melt away and turn into losses. We may not know exactly when, but the cycle of boom and bust is eternal.

-----

I think they're giving a fairly accurate assessment there. They forgot to mention that

$$MR. MARKET$$ IS HUGE!!!!

but anyway, if I bought one, I'd make sure to get it on a good dip, set a wide stop, or none at all... and be prepared to ride it out through at least several years of a steel bust, since we've undoubtedly seen a huge steel boom over the last few years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SCHN&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mt+x

If you had to pick a steel play, you could definitely do worse than this one. Again, it would be prudent to wait for earnings first, and if they're good, and you get it right away, I wouldn't be surprised if you could scalp a quick 10-20% right away, but if not, then a buy and hold for this one might work out just fine.

It's tougher for me to pick a buy price for this, since I most likely wouldn't buy a stock like this to begin with, but if I had to, I'd say around $20-21 would be a good price to grab some SCHN. If somehow it did drop to that price, though, there may be a "what's wrong with it then?" thought going through my mind that'd make me want to look a bit harder at it first. If it happened after the earnings came out on the lower end, I'd be even more hesitant to buy. But if earnings are good, and someone wants to give away their stock at a 1.2 P/B and a P/E of 4, I'd say go ahead and buy it.

I'm sorry if my analysis is too bland or full of platitudes, but it's all I could come up with in the time I had to devote to it. It probably doesn't really help much, since it's mostly just obvious anyway... but please don't base any decision to buy SCHN on what I just posted, keep in mind that I'm far from qualified to analyze any company, let alone a steel company.

[New-born baby]

ok, well I didn't manage to do as much tonight as I had hoped on the SCHN research, but I'll tell you what I think of it so far:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SCHN

mostly I'm using data available from Yahoo! so you'll have to take it with a grain of salt... this stuff is usually pretty stale.

book value is what I'd look at first. it's a pretty good sign for me that P/B is 1.4, though I'd prefer it to be a bit lower, perhaps 1.2 (if you are Ben Grahm, that's the maximum), before I'd really want to buy it without looking at too many other factors.

debt seems to be quite under control, and the profitability is certainly there, with $5 EPS. The major question I would have is whether they can keep up that profitability, or even improve it. So far they've been doing great, with 20% profit margins, 30%+ rev growth, and almost a 100% earnings growth. But can they keep that growth up? Will high energy costs finally catch up with them? Those are the details I'd need to find out before I would put my money into SCHN at a 1.4 P/B. It may be different at 1.0 or 1.1.

I'd need to have a much better understanding of the steel industry to buy this at its current price. I couldn't tell you whether there will be a continuing demand increase for steel at these higher prices or not. I know the developing world can't get enough of the stuff, but how much will they be able to spend, really? The limit may be fast approaching, so you need to be careful investing in a company that is so sensitive to these issues... and maybe find out more about this market before sinking money into it.

It looks like earnings are due out for SCHN fairly soon. A good idea, imo, would be to wait for any decision on this until after earnings are out and you can see how the business is actually doing right now, with the increased energy costs. You need to remember that steel is a cyclical industry, and very dependent on the cost of energy. Since oil is at an all time high right now, it makes sense that profits here should take a hit. If somehow SCHN manages another quarter of increased revenues and profits despite these increasing costs, then I might think about buying... but I'd still demand a good price for this. I believe that the price you're seeing here, although it may look tempting, is lower than most companies with these stats for a reason-


from TMF:
----
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2005/commentary05051206.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y
Mr. Market is not a complete idiotI know, we give moody Mr. Market a lot of grief around here at the Fool. We call him irrational (http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2003/commentary031002JF.htm), nearsighted (http://www.fool.com/news/foth/2000/foth001228.htm), and a thousand other derogatives. But he's not a complete idiot. He's been around a lot longer than you or I have. And over that time, he's developed a pretty good feel for how certain industries are affected by cyclical trends over the long term.

So poke fun at the market if you will (really, try it -- it's fun!). But at the same time, listen to what it's telling you when it prices companies such as Schnitzer Steel (Nasdaq: SCHN) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=SCHN), Ryerson Tull (NYSE: RT) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=RT), and Commercial Metals (Nasdaq: CMC) (http://quote.fool.com/uberdata.asp?symbols=CMC) all at price-to-earnings ratios (P/Es) of less than 10. I mean, really, the average S&P 500 company is selling for a historically pricey 20 times earnings right now. Yet in the steel industry, year-over-year earnings increases in the hundreds (if not thousands) of percents merit earnings multiples of just half that? Something's up here, Fools. And that something is the market telling you that the steel earnings you see today are ephemeral, the relative increases over last year's numbers -- anomalies.

In short, through the language of earnings multiples, Mr. Market is whispering in your ear those famous words: "Don't believe the hype." A downturn is coming. These earnings will melt away and turn into losses. We may not know exactly when, but the cycle of boom and bust is eternal.

-----

I think they're giving a fairly accurate assessment there. They forgot to mention that

$$MR. MARKET$$ IS HUGE!!!!

but anyway, if I bought one, I'd make sure to get it on a good dip, set a wide stop, or none at all... and be prepared to ride it out through at least several years of a steel bust, since we've undoubtedly seen a huge steel boom over the last few years.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=SCHN&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=mt+x

If you had to pick a steel play, you could definitely do worse than this one. Again, it would be prudent to wait for earnings first, and if they're good, and you get it right away, I wouldn't be surprised if you could scalp a quick 10-20% right away, but if not, then a buy and hold for this one might work out just fine.

It's tougher for me to pick a buy price for this, since I most likely wouldn't buy a stock like this to begin with, but if I had to, I'd say around $20-21 would be a good price to grab some SCHN. If somehow it did drop to that price, though, there may be a "what's wrong with it then?" thought going through my mind that'd make me want to look a bit harder at it first. If it happened after the earnings came out on the lower end, I'd be even more hesitant to buy. But if earnings are good, and someone wants to give away their stock at a 1.2 P/B and a P/E of 4, I'd say go ahead and buy it.

I'm sorry if my analysis is too bland or full of platitudes, but it's all I could come up with in the time I had to devote to it. It probably doesn't really help much, since it's mostly just obvious anyway... but please don't base any decision to buy SCHN on what I just posted, keep in mind that I'm far from qualified to analyze any company, let alone a steel company.

Written up with the quality of a Mr. Market pick! Excellent work, Junkyard Dog!

[jiesen]

I've put a stop in my CME position today at the $$MM target, just to try something new. I already locked in the gain for 1/2 the position when it hit the target earlier, so I'll risk a gap-down overnight, since I think this run still may have enough legs to get me another 10% or so before the next HUGE pick comes. Of course, I fully expect my stop to get triggered today, but it'd be nice to see this run continue, and make some $$ on it at the same time!

[jiesen]

reduced my XING position again (~1%) and put it into WSB, since if $9 is a great price, $8 is even better. I'll start worrying if it hits 6.

C'mon, it's a bank! how can a bank with $50M in net assets earning $20M per year be worth less than $60M?

yeah, the bad construction loans are troubling, but they don't have ALL their assets tied up in them...

http://www.twsb.com/up_docs/10qjan.pdf

Sold the extra 1% in WSB for 9. I am thinking to move this to OFG, at its current rock-bottom price, or just add it to my purchase of the next $$MM pick, depending what it is.

[jiesen]

also, CME just hit my stop at 259, so I sold the rest of my CME. thanks again for the 15% gain, $$MM!!!

You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!

[New-born baby]

Sold the extra 1% in WSB for 9. I am thinking to move this to OFG, at its current rock-bottom price, or just add it to my purchase of the next $$MM pick, depending what it is.

Yesterday's spike in OFG resulted in today's sell off: down the same 75 cents it was up yesterday.

[jiesen]

Took the opportunity in today's market weakness to buy back half of my CMTL position (which I'd already sold for 15%) at a good discount here (32.2). I'll buy the other half back if it continues this slide to around 30. Also got my GFCI back for 0.41. Nothing has changed really since it was 0.80, and they've updated their production timeline to say that they're on schedule.... so as long as they earn 0.23-0.25 this year, like they're supposed to, then 0.41 has got to be a good value for this stock. I may pick up some more of this, also, if it drops to 0.35 or so, but for now I'm still keeping the position very small (<1%).

[skiracer]

Love CMTL at these prices. Nothing has changed with this stock fundamentally. Just watching right now for it to bottom and for the right entry point. As soon as I see that I'll be back into it. Be ready for an explosive bounce of 2 to 4 points once the momo guys start to pick up on it.
It's been one of the leaders in it's tech sector (telecom) and will return to be one of the leaders again if the markets cooperate at all. So much depends on the oil situation which looks to be worsening. It might be wise to hold off until you see a firm move up first.
It's hard to hold back with it trading at these prices but patience will pay off right now.

[jiesen]

yeah. I agree that I'm probably a bit early getting back into CMTL. I originally wanted to get it for 31, but decided to take half at 32 here, and get the rest if and when it gets down to 30. I like the fundamentals for this stock too much to let it get away, when it's priced at this level. I know it's going back to 38 eventually, and I'd hate to miss my second 15%+ opportunity on CMTL because I got too greedy waiting for another 3% discount...

[New-born baby]

yeah. I agree that I'm probably a bit early getting back into CMTL. I originally wanted to get it for 31, but decided to take half at 32 here, and get the rest if and when it gets down to 30. I like the fundamentals for this stock too much to let it get away, when it's priced at this level. I know it's going back to 38 eventually, and I'd hate to miss my second 15%+ opportunity on CMTL because I got too greedy waiting for another 3% discount...

Okay, look at this:
http://img159.echo.cx/img159/16/chart11nl.th.gif (http://img159.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart11nl.gif)
Click on chart; then click on chart again.

Now look at the weekly: gives a nice view, with a warning:
http://img159.echo.cx/img159/1291/chart14yn.th.gif (http://img159.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart14yn.gif)

[skiracer]

Interpretation of the chart is such an individual thing. A dozen people would see it a dozen different ways. One specific that I feel very seldom fails as an alert is when the stock touches or is about to touch the upper or lower channel lines. Touching the top channel line usually suggests a possible pullback and touching the bottom channel line makes me start to anticipate a bounce upward. CMTL's weekly is getting close to that bottom line as you pointed out on your chart.
Another phenomenom that always gives me that warm feeling about a stock that I have been following is when the price seems so cheap that friends start talking about how cheap it is an how good it's beginning to look to them at that price.
It just seems to me that at this level and with it just about touching the bottom channel line it is sending up a alert flag for a possible entry.
Another point I keep trying to answer for myself is why the big drop in price over the last few days. I can't seem to come up with an answer to that question other than profit taking, which is a normal function of all traders at some point in owning a position in any stock. Coupled with irrational emotional herd mentality and behavior it doesn't take much to get the domino effect rolling and the shorts will get it falling everytime. It's when it reaches that point where the price is ridiculously cheap that the sharks return to feed. I have a feeling that we are near that point after today.
Let me ask you this question? Does it seem very cheap to you at this level an if it were to go down a little farther would it be even more enticing. This is what drives the greedy day, swing, and momo guys. The whole deal is to be quick, ready, and nimble enough to realize when it is making that move and to make the trade at that time. You'll have to be watching it closely to catch it at that moment but if it gets close to 30 I think any entry around there is going to be a great play.

[New-born baby]

That red ink--like the smell of blood in the water to feeding sharks. This is what drives the greedy day, swing, and momo guys.

Hey! I'M a GREEDY MoMo GUY! :D
http://img88.echo.cx/img88/5708/chart43ek.th.gif (http://img88.echo.cx/my.php?image=chart43ek.gif)

Ski,
I like your posts. Why don't you throw up here some of your plays that I might consider copying? I mean, it wouldn't hurt you if I jumped in on top of you, would it?

[skiracer]

New-Born,
Two prime examples of what I was talking about. CMTL and NGPS. Just a matter of time before they got so cheap that the smell of blood brought in the sharks. Both good stocks with alot going for them fundamentally. Nothing changed with either of them fundamentally except for profit-taking last week. Beaten down and cheap enough now to look good enough again for all the short term guys to believe there is enough room for some more profit taking. Both up over a point today.
But what matters most is being tuned in to the move and to make the trade early enough to capitalize on the move.
Jiesen was right on top of the play with the realization that CMTL was pretty cheap at 32 and the best part about it was that he wasn't procrastinating about making the play that he believed in.
Knowing that you can always exit at any point to limit losses is the best protection plan available. Making the play you believe in takes some balls.

HTRN broke through 13 again. Not a bad play from last weeks low of around 11.80.

[jiesen]

New-Born,
Two prime examples of what I was talking about. CMTL and NGPS. Just a matter of time before they got so cheap that the smell of blood brought in the sharks. Both good stocks with alot going for them fundamentally. Nothing changed with either of them fundamentally except for profit-taking last week. Beaten down and cheap enough now to look good enough again for all the short term guys to believe there is enough room for some more profit taking. Both up over a point today.
But what matters most is being tuned in to the move and to make the trade early enough to capitalize on the move.
Jiesen was right on top of the play with the realization that CMTL was pretty cheap at 32 and the best part about it was that he wasn't procrastinating about making the play that he believed in.
Knowing that you can always exit at any point to limit losses is the best protection plan available. Making the play you believe in takes some balls.

HTRN broke through 13 again. Not a bad play from last weeks low of around 11.80.

hey thanks for getting my back, ski. if you'll notice, my GFCI pick is also up around 14% today.

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMLN&t=5d

AMLN train appears to be leaving the station... not too late to jump aboard!

[skiracer]

I was a little shocked to see CMTL and NGPS both fall the way they did. When they got as cheap as they did I knew it was just a matter of time before the momo guys would pick up on it. You beat them to the punch.
I actually thought that we would see them both fall a bit more before the feeding started. I caught them both early this morning. NGPS at 25.50 and CMTL at 32.20.
This type of action is so typical with these situations after big drops like both of these had, so I wouldn't be counting my chickens yet as both bounces occurred on lower than average daily volume. I'll be setting pretty close stops on both of them to insure some of the gains. I would feel more comfortable with the bounce if they had some volume behind the moves but without the volume the move becomes somewhat suspect. Regardless it's nice when it goes the way you figured it would.
With the low volume gain today I would protect the gain first as tomorrow could be a reversal of what we had today.
Just out of curiousity how do you come up with a stock like GFCI or did someone give you a tip? Not knocking it but just curious.

[Websman]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AMLN&t=5d

AMLN train appears to be leaving the station... not too late to jump aboard!

Dang! I hate it when the train takes off without me, but I did manage to jump on board with VPHM and EZEN. :)

[jiesen]

I was a little shocked to see CMTL and NGPS both fall the way they did. When they got as cheap as they did I knew it was just a matter of time before the momo guys would pick up on it. You beat them to the punch.
I actually thought that we would see them both fall a bit more before the feeding started. I caught them both early this morning. NGPS at 25.50 and CMTL at 32.20.
This type of action is so typical with these situations after big drops like both of these had, so I wouldn't be counting my chickens yet as both bounces occurred on lower than average daily volume. I'll be setting pretty close stops on both of them to insure some of the gains. I would feel more comfortable with the bounce if they had some volume behind the moves but without the volume the move becomes somewhat suspect. Regardless it's nice when it goes the way you figured it would.
With the low volume gain today I would protect the gain first as tomorrow could be a reversal of what we had today.
Just out of curiousity how do you come up with a stock like GFCI or did someone give you a tip? Not knocking it but just curious.

yeah, it was a tip (from a guy on the Yahoo! XING message board) that I started looking at when it was trading in the .30s. I saw it dip to .18, and my DD told me that was way below what it was worth so I picked up a bit of it. I sold it for a good profit at .44, and when I got news that they had begun shipping their product, I figured it was worth getting back in at a good price, so I waited for .41 and jumped back in. Admittedly, this is a bit more risky than the .18 buy, but they are targeting an EPS of .25 this year! So far, it sounds to me to be legit... but you never know, so do some DD yourself before you follow any of my moves.

[jiesen]

also, CME just hit my stop at 259, so I sold the rest of my CME. thanks again for the 15% gain, $$MM!!!

You are HUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE!

Woah! I know I shouldn't be looking back at what could have been, but would you look at CME go? Why did I have to get stopped out at 259? Oh well, at least GFCI is also up 10% today. A CME 230 call goes for about $7000/contract now. Now why didn't I wait until this month to buy one?

[jiesen]

XING is up nicely now also, ahead of earnings. I think this bodes well for the earnings release tomorrow. Maybe the ER will put my $10 calls in the money, and I won't feel so stupid for selling those shares in the 5's.

go XING!

[jiesen]

Damn, the ER was NOT what I was expecting. I sold most of my XING for between $6.2-5.8 and hold about a 2% position in it now. I am disappointed in the low revenues and profits for last year. I might buy back if it falls low enough on this disappointment, but I'm getting tired of following this company after what it's put me through.

[New-born baby]

Mr. Jiesen,

I need your assistance. I want to help out a friend. We need a good call on a low dollar stock that would be good for small gain this week. You are the expert. Please lay something down on the table for us. And Thank You.

[jiesen]

Mr. Jiesen,

I need your assistance. I want to help out a friend. We need a good call on a low dollar stock that would be good for small gain this week. You are the expert. Please lay something down on the table for us. And Thank You.

Ok, in short here are some ideas for low-dollar values:
My #1 holding and best rec (long term, though): LJPC
Quickest to profit, but riskiest: GFCI
Very stable, and great long-term value: DRUG
Controls $3B in revs with an $80M market cap: DRRA
Each should give great returns long-term, but whether next week will give a pop is anyone's guess. I'd say GFCI is the most likely to jump 20-30% in a week, but also the most likely to drop 20%. I hold all of these except DRRA (would have liked to get in at 3.50, but missed out on it)
I'm also holding BEL, AFT, and ACRG, all low-dollar stocks I believe are excellent values here.

So go ahead and take your pick. I don't know what's so special about a stock with a low dollar value though, since having a low price in absolute dollars per share isn't going to increase a stock's chances of going up next week. The charts will probably tell you more useful information about that than I ever could.

If you want my other, equally valid, opinions on stocks trading at prices above $10, I would highly recommend: MRK, TM, BRKB, WSB (not trading above $10 but it should be), all $$MM stocks, and of course one of my very favorites at $20-$21 AMLN (you cannot go wrong with this one right now!). I own all of these also, with the exception of BRKB, which I will buy again, as soon as one of my riskier plays hits pay dirt.

Again, I wouldn't promise that any of these will go up next week, but over the long term, I am sure that they will all (cumulatively, anyway) perform very well relative to the market (or else I wouldn't be putting my money in them).

If any of these recs interest you to the point of possibly buying one, let me know and I'll give you a long-term target for it. Short-term, you'll have to ask your friendly chart.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
I needed to pick your mind because my friend has a paltry account of $2,730.00. That's right; not even $3k for trading. I am trying to steer him into a couple of winners to get him over the $3k mark, then $5k, and hopefully one day, into the $10+k world. And I knew that the Junkyard Dog would know where to start. I figured that if you don't have at least 100 shares, you are almost wasting your time because a $1 move on a $90 stock nets only $28!

Now that you have the facts, which one of these beauties would you think offers the best play? And we don't have to have a 20%+ mover (although that would be very nice). We just have to have one that moves upwards of at least 50 cents.

I am going to sift through your post and come up with a chart (hopefully) of what I think will best fit the bill. Perhaps it'll be a winner for both of you.

Thank you, Jiesen!

[New-born baby]

Look at this one:
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8890/chart11uq.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart11uq.gif)

[New-born baby]

LJPC:
The chart says it could go up, it could go down. Tuesday is a wait and see day.
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/6531/chart15cc.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15cc.gif)

[New-born baby]

When I say BEL is gaining strength, you need to liken it to a man who
has been shot, and spent the last week in a coma. He's awake now, but
he's not walking just yet. But he is on the road to recovery.
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/6839/chart13om.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13om.gif)

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I needed to pick your mind because my friend has a paltry account of $2,730.00. That's right; not even $3k for trading. I am trying to steer him into a couple of winners to get him over the $3k mark, then $5k, and hopefully one day, into the $10+k world. And I knew that the Junkyard Dog would know where to start. I figured that if you don't have at least 100 shares, you are almost wasting your time because a $1 move on a $90 stock nets only $28!

Now that you have the facts, which one of these beauties would you think offers the best play? And we don't have to have a 20%+ mover (although that would be very nice). We just have to have one that moves upwards of at least 50 cents.

I am going to sift through your post and come up with a chart (hopefully) of what I think will best fit the bill. Perhaps it'll be a winner for both of you.

Thank you, Jiesen!

Well if you want to know what I think, from this information, my advice would be to tell your friend to scrape up another $50 and put it all into a share of BRKB. The number of shares is unimportant, it's the value and quality of the company that makes a difference. He isn't going to make it to $10k by daytrading his way up to it. The best way to get the $10k is by earning it and saving it. If $3k is all he has saved so far, I'd really suggest he stay away from most risky plays, and pick a well-diversified mutual fund or an index fund. BRKB is a good alternative, because it is a stock that comprises many diverse businesses, and will likely thrive though any market condition. Also, by watching what Buffett does with the money your friend entrusts to him, your friend can learn a lot about where to put his future investments.

Also, if the money is not in a Roth IRA, and he hasn't already maxed out his (and his wife's) 2005 contribution, I would recommend putting the money into one of those before making the investment. That's the best way to keep the money out the the government's hands when he cashes it in 20 years down the road after it's value has appreciated several times.

[jiesen]

Look at this one:
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/8890/chart11uq.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart11uq.gif)

ACRG is DEFINITELY one of the best values out there. I wouldn't sell mine for anything less than $6 right now. And depending how their earnings continue to play out, I just may hold this one forever.

[jiesen]

When I say BEL is gaining strength, you need to liken it to a man who
has been shot, and spent the last week in a coma. He's awake now, but
he's not walking just yet. But he is on the road to recovery.
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/6839/chart13om.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13om.gif)

I agree with that assessment of BEL. Whether he ever finds his legs again is a big question, but if he does, BEL will be HUGE!

[jiesen]

LJPC:
The chart says it could go up, it could go down. Tuesday is a wait and see day.
http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/6531/chart15cc.th.gif (http://img266.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart15cc.gif)

All I can say about LJPC is it's worth >$10 if it's worth a dime. But you won't know which by Tuesday.

[Websman]

I would recommend EZEN for a good low price stock with potential. It's one of Poorman's latest picks.

[New-born baby]

I would recommend EZEN for a good low price stock with potential. It's one of Poorman's latest picks.

Thank you, Webs, for trying to help us. Here's a chart of it, and you'll see it
has pluses and minuses. This thing may not yet have found the bottom. My gut says she needs to form an inverted s/h/s.

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/7817/chart13sp.th.gif (http://img86.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13sp.gif)
Note that she filled the gap of 25 April 2005.
I am not sure this thing is fully ripe, although it is probably not too far away from being ready. I think it needs another couple of weeks.

Thanks again, Webs.

[jiesen]

Thank you, Webs, for trying to help us. Here's a chart of it, and you'll see it
has pluses and minuses. This thing may not yet have found the bottom. My gut says she needs to form an inverted s/h/s.

http://img86.imageshack.us/img86/7817/chart13sp.th.gif (http://img86.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart13sp.gif)
Note that she filled the gap of 25 April 2005.
I am not sure this thing is fully ripe, although it is probably not too far away from being ready. I think it needs another couple of weeks.

Thanks again, Webs.

I'd give EZEN a thumbs up, fundamentally, from what I could see so far. What I like about it is that they've come back from losses a few years back to increasing profits lately, by paring down costs (oh yeah, and "look Ma, no long-term debt!"). The stock has picked up, too, as a result, and the momentum may help carry them on for the next few quarters at least. One thing I'd worry about is how much of a moat they could have, being in the business of teleconferencing hardware. Best to watch for shrinking profit margins with this one. But while the market is there, and they continue to make good profits doing it, I'd be happy owning stock in this company.

I also like that they can pull in $3M in revenues each quarter with just 35 employees (per Yahoo! maybe there are a few more since those figures tend to be quickly outdated). That, and the fact that they're looking to hire more tells me there's plenty of growth ahead for this company:

http://www.ezenia.com/careers.php

[jiesen]

Took the opportunity in today's market weakness to buy back half of my CMTL position (which I'd already sold for 15%) at a good discount here (32.2). I'll buy the other half back if it continues this slide to around 30. Also got my GFCI back for 0.41. Nothing has changed really since it was 0.80, and they've updated their production timeline to say that they're on schedule.... so as long as they earn 0.23-0.25 this year, like they're supposed to, then 0.41 has got to be a good value for this stock. I may pick up some more of this, also, if it drops to 0.35 or so, but for now I'm still keeping the position very small (<1%).

Finally, the news I've been waiting for came out for GFCI. I doubled up at 0.41 to about a 1% position. I have a near-term target of 0.69 for this, and long-term I'm thinking I can get .8-1.00. I expect earnings for this company to be 0.30-0.35/year going forward.


http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/050715/090935.html




Grifco Completes Production of 50 Jet Motors; Plans to Ship Within 5 Days
Friday July 15, 12:38 pm ET

HOUSTON, TX--(MARKET WIRE)--Jul 15, 2005 -- Grifco International, Inc. (Other OTC:GFCI.PK (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gfci.pk) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=gfci.pk)), a provider of oil and gas services equipment to the worldwide oil and gas industry, has completed production on its initial slate of fifty Jet Motor units and expects to begin shipping from its Texas facility within five days.

"Several of the major oil and gas companies, as well as large independents, have lined up to utilize this 'one of a kind' tool, knowing that a single Jet Motor will typically increase oil and gas production 15-25% per well, while saving money on workover costs," stated Jim Dial, President and CEO of Grifco International. "We anticipate that the rental units will be used continuously and repetitively by clients, shifting from well to well, for the life of the tool. The fifty Jet Motor units will generate approximately $2 million per month in rental fees with 75% utilization.


"As part of our quality assurance procedures, each tool will be tested on Monday and Tuesday at our test facility and we will begin shipping to our customers on Wednesday, July 20th," added Dial.

Coil Tubing Technology, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Grifco International, Inc., produces the "Jet Motor," a proprietary product for the oilfield drilling and production workover industry. The oilwell workover industry has long desired a downhole drilling motor that can operate on coiled tubing workover units with fluid or nitrogen wells up to 600 degrees Fahrenheit to effectively clean paraffins, sodium carbonates and barium in tubular production strings.

The design concept behind the Jet Motor was to provide the industry with a rotationally driven tool, independent of the workstring, without elastomers, and able to produce sufficient horsepower. The tool needed to operate on fluid or nitrogen and the tool needed to supply sufficient jet velocity and impact force to the nozzle. The Jet Motor solves this riddle by creating horsepower by injection of the fluid or gas used through an offset orifice while converting the horsepower to torque with a control tube that maximizes the torque to the drive system and provides useable drilling torque to the bit. There is no other product available in the industry that can hydraulically clean, mechanically drill with torque, utilized in fluid or gas, and able to operate in 550 degree F hole conditions. The Jet Motor represents the leading edge of oilfield drilling technology that will revolutionize the way drilling and workover operations are conducted while greatly reducing the cost of workover to the well operator.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
I like that GFCI.PK--would pick up some shares except Interactive Brokers says I cannot buy that stock via their firm. Have I got the correct symbol? Who is your brokerage firm?

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I like that GFCI.PK--would pick up some shares except Interactive Brokers says I cannot buy that stock via their firm. Have I got the correct symbol? Who is your brokerage firm?

I have Scottrade, and they've no problem buying those shares for me.

[IIC]

Sometimes at Scottrade you cannot buy via the Net...you have to call. I found that out one time when I wanted to buy QBID.pk...5,000,000 shares at $.0001...I was too lazy to call... It was early Jan '04......the thing goes to $.02...even with the spreads I woulda made a bundle...$100k...Such is life :(

[Websman]

I'm starting to like GFCI.PK. I may have to pick up a few thousand shares on Monday.

[jiesen]

Ok, in short here are some ideas for low-dollar values:
My #1 holding and best rec (long term, though): LJPC
Quickest to profit, but riskiest: GFCI
Very stable, and great long-term value: DRUG
Controls $3B in revs with an $80M market cap: DRRA
Each should give great returns long-term, but whether next week will give a pop is anyone's guess. I'd say GFCI is the most likely to jump 20-30% in a week, but also the most likely to drop 20%. I hold all of these except DRRA (would have liked to get in at 3.50, but missed out on it)


Damn, now I'm REALLY wishing I had picked up that DRRA at 3.50! Even 4.50 would have been great:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DRRA&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

By the way, what did your friend end up doing with the $$, NBB?

[Websman]

Damn, now I'm REALLY wishing I had picked up that DRRA at 3.50! Even 4.50 would have been great:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DRRA&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

By the way, what did your friend end up doing with the $$, NBB?

You should still be able to get back in at about $5.30, if it fills the gap. It looks like it might possibly have a good run.

[jiesen]

sold half of my NGPS at 19 today (cutting my losses from 20), decided to put it into the next $$MM pick instead.

Sold the rest of my NGPS today for about a 70% gain over 4 months. (guess it works out to more like 30% when you figure the 5% loss I took on half of the position). Still not too bad, eh? I still think this will go to 40, but it could still pull back to 20, so I'll take my chips off the table while I'm up, and maybe come back to this one when it's more attractively valued. In the meantime, I'll look to put the money into HANS or CMTL if they pull back, or the next HUGE $$MM pick.

[B.J]

Mucho congrats, Jiesen. Did you ever manage to get back into HANS?

[jiesen]

Mucho congrats, Jiesen. Did you ever manage to get back into HANS?

No, I was too stubborn on my $88-89 buy price, and let it get away from me today. I'll wait to see what it does next week, but if I can't get HANS, there are plenty of other fish in the sea...

AMLN is also at the top of my list right now, and if it pulls back another $1 or so, I may jump back in with both feet instead of just one.

[Websman]

Sold the rest of my NGPS today for about a 70% gain over 4 months. (guess it works out to more like 30% when you figure the 5% loss I took on half of the position). Still not too bad, eh? I still think this will go to 40, but it could still pull back to 20, so I'll take my chips off the table while I'm up, and maybe come back to this one when it's more attractively valued. In the meantime, I'll look to put the money into HANS or CMTL if they pull back, or the next HUGE $$MM pick.

Ahhh man, and it's just getting started. lol

Seriously though, congrats on the profits. Maybe we'll both get lucky and will be able to buy NGPS back at $20.

[B.J]

No, I was too stubborn on my $88-89 buy price, and let it get away from me today. I'll wait to see what it does next week, but if I can't get HANS, there are plenty of other fish in the sea...

AMLN is also at the top of my list right now, and if it pulls back another $1 or so, I may jump back in with both feet instead of just one.

Good plan! AMLN 200 DMA at 20.33. IMO that will be ideal.

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INSP&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

This one popped back into view for me, anyone else see any possibilities with this one at $24? Of course the last time I bought this it was at around $900 (split adjusted). Good thing I took my 5% loss and moved on, eh?

[Websman]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=INSP&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

This one popped back into view for me, anyone else see any possibilities with this one at $24? Of course the last time I bought this it was at around $900 (split adjusted). Good thing I took my 5% loss and moved on, eh?

Might be a possiblity. I'll have to research it this weekend.

I'm thinking that DHB might be a good buy, after the drop today.

[New-born baby]

By the way, what did your friend end up doing with the $$, NBB?

Sorry I missed this while on vacation. We put the money in Canada, and made about $414 on StormCat Energy. Then we put money into ENG and REGN. ENG paid off to the tune of about 11%, and we are up about $30 on REGN. The rest is in cash. Mr Market's picks are too pricey for this $2770 account. Considered buying BEL for $2.93, and am kicking myself for not doing so. Considered ALTI at $2.91. ZICA-put a limit order in for $2.55, but it didn't fill, and truthfully, I am not sorry (at this point). I want to consistently get base hits for this friend. Another friend I put into KBH today. I hope I am not sorry for it later.

Any other picks you'd like to throw up on the board?
God bless Jiesen.

[New-born baby]

AMLN is also at the top of my list right now, and if it pulls back another $1 or so, I may jump back in with both feet instead of just one.

I take it you did not buy any more AMLN. If not, I'd wait for the $16.50 mark, because I don't think it will be too long before she comes down to this level.

[jiesen]

I take it you did not buy any more AMLN. If not, I'd wait for the $16.50 mark, because I don't think it will be too long before she comes down to this level.

Actually, I did pick up more shares at $19.4 (mentioned it in the AMLN thread). I don't believe we'll see it fall quite that far. My stop is at 18, and I don't expect it to get hit. Monday may give us a better clue though, since more script data will be out then. Short position has increased from around 15M shares to around 25M, without the effect you would expect that to have. When they need to cover (and they will) AMLN will take off.

[New-born baby]

Actually, I did pick up more shares at $19.4 (mentioned it in the AMLN thread). I don't believe we'll see it fall quite that far. My stop is at 18, and I don't expect it to get hit. Monday may give us a better clue though, since more script data will be out then. Short position has increased from around 15M shares to around 25M, without the effect you would expect that to have. When they need to cover (and they will) AMLN will take off.

Jiesen,
I don't know just what to do about AMLN just yet. Probably I will just sit on this thing until it sorts itself out. I could double or triple my position, but would have to see a double bottom on the chart to do that. I am upside down in a big way on this one. Never liked being upside down very much.
Here's the chart anyway. Not pretty.
http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/3851/chart28bk.th.gif (http://img329.imageshack.us/my.php?image=chart28bk.gif)
AMLN will not go up in a reversal. I think she'll make a double bottom. You know, go up from $16.50 to $18, then back down to $16.50. We shall see. . . .

[New-born baby]

Tremendous $2 surge this morning. I'm still underwater . . . .

[jiesen]

Tremendous $2 surge this morning. I'm still underwater . . . .

My 19.4 position is now helping, rather than hurting. Because my initial position was 21, I'm also underwater, but not by much... Anyway, $2 up today must mean our Monday script number have come in higher than expected. I'll find out for sure and report back here.

[New-born baby]

My 19.4 position is now helping, rather than hurting. Because my initial position was 21, I'm also underwater, but not by much... Anyway, $2 up today must mean our Monday script number have come in higher than expected. I'll find out for sure and report back here.

Jiesen,
You are tremendous! Thanks. Now please get our KBH up out of the water. BMHC, TOL and KBH are all taking it hard today.

[jiesen]

They actually made some money this time! Now I remember why I bought this one...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050802/25341.html?.v=1

Axesstel Achieves Profitability
Tuesday August 2, 8:00 am ET
Revenues $37 Million, EPS $0.01, Gross Margin 12.2%

SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Aug. 2, 2005--Axesstel, Inc. (AMEX:AFT (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aft&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=aft)), a leader in the design and development of fixed wireless voice and broadband data products, today announced positive results for the second quarter of 2005. Revenues for the second quarter of 2005 were $37.0 million, an increase of approximately 369% compared to revenues of $7.9 million reported in the same period last year and an increase of approximately 27% compared to revenues of $29.0 million in the first quarter of 2005. The company reported net income of $.3 million or $0.01 per diluted share as compared to a net loss of $1.0 million or ($0.13) per diluted share for the same period a year ago, and a net loss of $1.4 million or ($0.10) per diluted share for the first quarter of 2005. Gross margin for the second quarter of 2005 was $4.5 million or 12.2% compared to $1.0 million or 12.4% reported in the same period last year and $3.6 million or 12.3% in the first quarter of 2005.

"We are very pleased to have reached a significant financial milestone in the second quarter by achieving profitability," said Mike Kwon, chairman and CEO of Axesstel. "Over the last year, Axesstel has accomplished major strategic objectives by expanding our customer base worldwide, diversifying our product portfolio, and enhancing our manufacturing capabilities. Going forward, we will strive to solidify our position as a leading provider of high-quality fixed wireless products by growing revenues through new product introductions, expanding current customer relationships and acquiring new customers in markets worldwide."

Significant recent developments include:



In July, Axesstel announced it will supply Tele Barta with the AXW-P1900 Fixed Wireless Phone to support the launch of their CDMA2000 1X fixed wireless network in Bangladesh.
In June, Axesstel purchased manufacturing capabilities in South Korea and moved volume manufacturing to China to reduce production costs, increase manufacturing efficiencies and expedite product introductions. The company also announced it will supply Suntel with the AXW-P800 Fixed Wireless Phone to support the launch of Sri Lanka's first CDMA2000 1X fixed wireless network.
In May, Axesstel strengthened its management team with the appointment of Clark Hickock as chief operating officer and built on marketing with the addition of Kim Haneke as senior director of marketing.
In April, Axesstel expanded a supplier relationship with Telecard Limited of Pakistan and opened a representative office in China.
Third Quarter and Full Year 2005 Guidance

The following statements are forward looking and actual results may differ materially. Please see the description of certain risk factors in this release and Axesstel's reports on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a more complete description of risks. Based on the current business outlook, Axesstel anticipates revenues for the third quarter of 2005 to be between $34 and $38 million. Full year guidance for 2005 revenues continues to be at the high end of $135 to $145 million. Axesstel continues to expect to generate an operating profit for 2005.

Conference Call

Axesstel will host a conference call today, August 2, 2005 at 10:30 a.m. PDT (1:30 p.m. EDT) to discuss the second quarter 2005 results. Participating in the call will be Axesstel's chairman and CEO, Mike H.P. Kwon, David Morash, president and CFO, and Patrick Gray, vice president and controller. To participate in the conference call, please dial the following number at least ten minutes prior to the scheduled conference call time: 800-862-9098. International callers should dial 785-424-1051. There is no reservation code required for this call. For those unable to participate in the call at this time, a replay will be available from August 2, 2005 through August 11, 2005. To access the replay, please dial 888-562-0853. International callers should dial 402-220-7338.

About Axesstel

Axesstel is a leader in the design and development of fixed wireless voice and broadband data products. Axesstel's product portfolio includes fixed wireless desktop phones, payphones, voice/data terminals and broadband modems for access to voice calling and high-speed data services. Axesstel delivers innovative fixed wireless solutions, currently based on 3G Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology, to leading telecommunications operators and distributors worldwide. Headquartered in San Diego, California with a research and development center in Seoul, South Korea, Axesstel is listed on AMEX: AFT. For more information on Axesstel visit www.axesstel.com (http://www.axesstel.com/).

[jiesen]

Just bought a few options on XING, just in case. I still think XING might pull it off, and wanted to give it a few more months before giving up, but I want to keep my downside limited, so options are the way to go for me.

[Lyehopper]

Just bought a few options on XING, just in case. I still think XING might pull it off, and wanted to give it a few more months before giving up, but I want to keep my downside limited, so options are the way to go for me.

Jiesen what do you think of PACT? .... technically speaking? .... It's one of my long picks in the contest, and I own it in my portfolio.

[jiesen]

Jiesen what do you think of PACT? .... technically speaking? .... It's one of my long picks in the contest, and I own it in my portfolio.

Hmm, interesting question, Lye. I try to stay away from TA mostly, but fundamentally I do have some opinion of PACT. Usually when I'm looking at PACT, it's in comparison to XING, since they're in a very similar market. That is, the macro factors that moves one up tends to move the other as well. I tend to gravitate toward XING, though, because there's much more meat, valuewise, to the stock. Management seems to be a bit shoddy with XING, and perhaps PACT is better-managed, thus deserving of the much higher multiples given it. But I still like XING for the fact that it's trading very near BV, whereas PACT is trading much higher, at about a 70 P/E! Both are in very lucrative Chinese markets, but PACT is actually a US corporation, and so is more readily analyzed by US investors. That doesn't necessarily make them better able to allocate capital, but it certainly makes it easier for them to obtain it.

But to get back to your question about the technicals, I'd have to say that PACT has shown a tendency to spike up pretty hard on its big contract announcements lately, and it's been awhile since it's happened, so you might be able to make out pretty big on this, if you just buy a little and wait for a pop. I'd sell a couple days into it, though, as it also tends to pull back pretty quickly. Also, if you do this, I'd recommend a pretty tight stop, since PACT is trading at a pretty rich multiple, and may drift quite a bit lower than you'd like to see if you entered now. The latest news from Thursday is encouraging, though, and the stock hasn't reacted much to it- not quite sure whether that's really a good thing or not- but if you got it here at 8, I'd say there's a pretty good chance you'll be able to get 12 for it within 3-6 months. Maybe if 7.5 gets hit first, though, take your bet off the table and try again to enter around 6-6.50. That's probably how I'd approach PACT, but then again, I'm still convinced XING is the better value of the two, so would be more likely to put my money in XING than PACT.

I was previously much more bullish on Chinese stocks, but seeing consistently disappointing financials coming out of XING (may just be a XING thing) has turned me off quite a bit, so I've reduced my position in XING from around 10% to just 2% now. With options, or on some decent quarterly info, I may try to re-enter, but I'm not focusing as much here as I used to.

Another good developing market telecom I like is AFT. I'd recommend checking into that one, and see if you like it- revenues are growing quite well with AFT, and they just announced their first profitable quarter. Plus they are headquartered just up the street from me, so I can run right over and bug them if I feel the need! (I've done it once, just to check that they actually exist and are hard at work.)

[jiesen]

Just took a small position (~1%) again in NGPS today. I was thinking to go back in all the way on CMTL but couldn't resist the value of NGPS here at 24 and change. Besides, now that I have both I'm more diversified, right?

Anyway, I plan to sell between 32-36 or wherever it happens to be (assuming it's up) when CMTL hits the 15% for another notch on the $$MM streak.

[Runner]

Just took a small position (~1%) again in NGPS today. I was thinking to go back in all the way on CMTL but couldn't resist the value of NGPS here at 24 and change. Besides, now that I have both I'm more diversified, right?

Anyway, I plan to sell between 32-36 or wherever it happens to be (assuming it's up) when CMTL hits the 15% for another notch on the $$MM streak.


I'll join ya off a 20 band slip!!

[jiesen]

cool, welcome aboard and good luck to us both!

[jiesen]

... but then again, I'm still convinced XING is the better value of the two, so would be more likely to put my money in XING than PACT.

I was previously much more bullish on Chinese stocks, but seeing consistently disappointing financials coming out of XING (may just be a XING thing) has turned me off quite a bit, so I've reduced my position in XING from around 10% to just 2% now. With options, or on some decent quarterly info, I may try to re-enter, but I'm not focusing as much here as I used to.

XING is tearing it up today, on a fairly rosy quarterly "update."

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050810/lnw004.html?.v=15

Who knows, those options just might pay off for me.

[Runner]

I'll join ya off a 20 band slip!!

Well that was short lived! lol

[New-born baby]

Well that was short lived! lol

Runner,
I think $20.50 is going to be the bottom. Look at the NGPS thread for my know-nothing chart. :D She finished very near the low of the day: bearish.
"Saved by the bell."

[Runner]

Runner,
I think $20.50 is going to be the bottom. Look at the NGPS thread for my know-nothing chart. :D She finished very near the low of the day: bearish.
"Saved by the bell."

NB, you very well may be right. Hey we win some and lose some, part of the game I guess.

[jiesen]

I just bought Jan 2006 $40 FNM puts (very small position) just in case we are seeing a housing market crash. The proceeds from this position should offset my losses in my housing sector stocks, should that actually occur. FNM may crater of its own accord anyway, just due to the recent financial statement woes. Of a total $26B book value, approximately $11B may have just disappeared! Just the worry about this could drive this stock under $40 in a few months. I don't believe that is necessarily going to happen, and I don't really think FNM will crumble when all is said and done, but I think this play makes for some good insurance against the worst-case scenario.

[New-born baby]

I just bought Jan 2006 $40 FNM puts (very small position) just in case we are seeing a housing market crash. The proceeds from this position should offset my losses in my housing sector stocks, should that actually occur. FNM may crater of its own accord anyway, just due to the recent financial statement woes. Of a total $26B book value, approximately $11B may have just disappeared! Just the worry about this could drive this stock under $40 in a few months. I don't believe that is necessarily going to happen, and I don't really think FNM will crumble when all is said and done, but I think this play makes for some good insurance against the worst-case scenario.

WOW! Is this a major triumph or what??!! MY FIRST CONVERT!! And that the wonderful FA analyst Jiesen!!!

I am getting to be a better preacher every day. And here's the proof!

[New-born baby]

NB, you very well may be right. Hey we win some and lose some, part of the game I guess.

Well, it's another 'finish-at-the-low-of-the-day' for NGPS. What do you think? Some high roller is shorting the close every day? Perhaps he's a peace-nik that doesn't like defense stocks. I just don't think this is the bottom.

[Websman]

Any thoughts on DHB? I'm wondering how far this thing can go down.

They have all kinds of contracts and business seems to be good, but the CEO sucks.

[jiesen]

Any thoughts on DHB? I'm wondering how far this thing can go down.

They have all kinds of contracts and business seems to be good, but the CEO sucks.

Well, just looking at book value and earnings, I'd say $3-4 would be a pretty safe entry for this one, since you have $2 in book and $0.7 EPS and growing. I'm sure it's really worth quite a bit more, though, as long as those earnings materialize as they're supposed to- but look what happened to BEL- there may be things you don't know about coming down the pike. I'd say if you don't like the CEO, then find a company whose CEO you do trust before putting up your money- or at least wait for a price damn near BV before you buy. Just remember that even the book value is potentially at risk- just look at ABRXQ today. $100M in BV as of the last statement, and a $5M market cap now- perfectly justified, too!

[jiesen]

Well, it's another 'finish-at-the-low-of-the-day' for NGPS. What do you think? Some high roller is shorting the close every day? Perhaps he's a peace-nik that doesn't like defense stocks. I just don't think this is the bottom.

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

[Websman]

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Yea, bring on the TA guys. I want to make some money from NGPS again. Will I still be able to buy it in the teens? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Websman]

Well, just looking at book value and earnings, I'd say $3-4 would be a pretty safe entry for this one, since you have $2 in book and $0.7 EPS and growing. I'm sure it's really worth quite a bit more, though, as long as those earnings materialize as they're supposed to- but look what happened to BEL- there may be things you don't know about coming down the pike. I'd say if you don't like the CEO, then find a company whose CEO you do trust before putting up your money- or at least wait for a price damn near BV before you buy. Just remember that even the book value is potentially at risk- just look at ABRXQ today. $100M in BV as of the last statement, and a $5M market cap now- perfectly justified, too!

It's amazing. Last year DHB was on a roll, then the CEO screws the shareholders by dumping a s#!tload full of stock.

[Runner]

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)


Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

[jiesen]

It's amazing. Last year DHB was on a roll, then the CEO screws the shareholders by dumping a s#!tload full of stock.

I think there's somewhat of a parallel here with what CMC's selling did to NGPS after that stock hit $50. If they had just kept holding, who knows where it'd be by now... probably in the $100's I would think. But these big guys throwing millions of shares into the market sure can put a stock into a good tailspin- which can make for great buying opportunities.

A big difference between these situations, though, is that CMC is finally out of NGPS, and their people on the board have resigned, so that chapter is done for NGPS. DHB still has the CEO in place, and as long as he's there, I'm sure he can find a way to keep printing shares for himself. Best to watch out for that! When people get a taste of money for nothing, it's kind of hard to stop them from wanting more of it.

[jiesen]

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

got back in at 24.4 earlier. and sure, all opinions help- even NBB's guaranteed $18 share price in 15.41 days. gives me a feel for what the market is thinking.

[spikefader]

Yea, bring on the TA guys. I want to make some money from NGPS again. Will I still be able to buy it in the teens? Inquiring minds want to know.P&F bearish target is 12.00.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?c=ngps,P

Sheesh if it goes to 12.00, I can see 9.00 pretty easy from there.

I think there's a bunch of better longs out there than this one. Put this one in the draw and inspect it from time to time to see how it's developing. And when it's ready, ambush it. And it's a long way from that right now. But Jiesen is the astute bottom picker here (that sounds aweful) so I'd follow his lead if you were gonna trade it.

[New-born baby]

So does today's NGPS close on an uptick mean it's now going to $40? Or do you wait until we're at $35 again to make that call?

(not trying to knock your TA, just hoping to spark up some more analysis from the gang)

Jiesen,
From a Dow Theory perspective, NGPS is working on a bear flag on pathetically low volume (the lower the volume, the faster the fall).
She's in the same category as KBH. They are headed South (IMO).

I thought that $6 drop in one day ought to, perhaps, put the fear of God in you when it comes to buying NGPS. But you are the best bottom fisher I have ever seen, so I defer to your knowledge.

Best to ya, Jiesen & Webs.

[IIC]

Well I don't have a clear picture on this one. In fact Most stocks have been difficult to read latley. I wonder why. One day market up and the next down, go figure. I’m Bullish on NGPS as long as the 200dma holding on the daily. Not sure where you entered but I like NGPS above 25.00 for now. Bet this really helped....lol

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

[New-born baby]

You are right...MOST have been difficult to read lately...that is a sign of a bad overall market...Doug(IIC)

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

[New-born baby]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

I think it already tanked, and 26 was a great time to buy. 30 is less attractive to me, and if I were looking to buy, I'd probably wait for a discount on a negative verdict, but I wouldn't expect it. I think MRK will walk from this one relatively unscathed. Fear is still pretty well priced into this, and anything less than a $10M verdict (which would get reduced to $2M eventually) will likely send MRK higher as the path to recovery clears up. Needless to say, I'm definitely not selling here, and probably won't sell until at least $40-$50 or so. I had considered buying the $30 puts for 0.3 this week, as that could protect from a truly bad verdict tomorrow AM, but I seriously doubt the jury would be so quick to condemn one of the world's leading producers of life-saving medicine. Jurors may be generally naive, but I give them at least that much credit.

MRK all the way, baby!

[IIC]

Did you note that the VIX was rising, but the VOX was falling? That means that the S&P 100 was falling (money leaving) while the S&P 500 is rising (money flowing in). Such a mixed signal suggests high volatility in the next few days--perhaps tomorrow on option expiration day.

No I didn't...thx

[New-born baby]

No I didn't...thx
Doug,
As you know, very volatile day this one. I look for some serious red today. Monday will be green, (I hope), but this one looks red to me at 4:49 a.m.

[jiesen]

Hey Jiesen!
Cashmaker been taking lessons from you? Did you see his latest?

Here's a slice for your enjoyment:
********
Watch out MRK, Vioxx case negative result from Jury. May tank a lot. Maybe it is a good time to buy after its tank.
********
What do you think?

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050819/vioxx_trial.html?.v=4

See? The jury is actually considering the evidence, and if they do that, rather than just consider a widow's grief to base their decision, it must be a verdict in favor of MRK. So, there's no verdict today, no MRK tanking...

We'll see what happens next week.

[jiesen]

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

[spikefader]

Weekly channel long today. Technical buy opp at the inverted SHS and neckline break at $28.10.

[New-born baby]

Ok, so I was wrong! I just sold out at $28. Too bad I didn't get back in from lunch 10 minutes earlier, or I would have sold it then.

253M for one heart attack without evidence? They're screwed.

We're screwed, too. There won't be any new medicines for another 50 years, I bet.

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

[Websman]

Yeah, well Cashmaker is buying shares by the truckload now. . . .

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.

[spikefader]

I'm thinking MRK may still be a good short.It's hard to deny the monthly and quarterly bear flag for it. Price is breaking down from it.

[jiesen]

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

[Websman]

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

I may consider some OFG myself this week. How can you turn down a bargain like that? :)

[jiesen]

I may consider some OFG myself this week. How can you turn down a bargain like that? :)

You can't! See, the CEO of OFG thinks so, too. He just bought last week, at nearly the same price I did:

http://www.snl.com/Interactive/html.asp?F=1912753.HTML&T=OFG&Y=4&D=8%2F25%2F2005&S=1&V=DMZ2

Now if the CEO buys stock in his own company, shouldn't that give you at least some sort of a clue that it's a bargain? Just looking at the balance sheet, you can see it's trading below book! C'mon, this is not a bank about to collapse. The CEO is putting up some of his own money to say just that.

[New-born baby]

Hey Jiesen!
You know your drug stocks. What do you think of Gennetech. They have a lot coming in the pipeline. Looks like a future winner. What think ye?

BTW, not only is Fording Coal hotter than a firecracker, but so is Arch Coal. I bought a load yesterday at $60.64 and sold the Oct $60 calls for $4. Its a great stock . . . a divy, and now if it would just gradually rise to $63.65 and stay there . . . I could keep the call and the stock :D I think it will get called away.

[jiesen]

Congrats on the coal success, NBB. I wish I'd taken your tip and switched out of ARLP into FDG, but hindsight is 20/20, and I'm sure coal will continue to be very profitable for both of these companies going forward.

Yes you could do worse than DNA. It's not exactly my kind of company, since it's a little late to be buying it, now that all of its success is laid out on the table. It seems a bit expensive to me, but then again, it always has, and as it turns out, there's never been a bad time to buy DNA. It's one of just a few biotechs that made it into a full-fledged pharma co. There's a myriad of products they have on the market, which also makes it tougher for me to guage its value, but I know they're growing like crazy, and hiring everyone in sight around here. I'm pretty sure that it's a lot more fully valued than some companies, which I am trying to seek out. But if you want a steady profitable drug company, DNA could be just what the Dr. ordered. Just remember, that like any other drug company you could wake up to see it down 30% on some terrible news about a recall, or a failed trial. So if you want to be smart about it, wait until AFTER one of these announcements to pick the stock up on the cheap, rather than buying it before and regretting your decision a month later.

[New-born baby]

DUH! Another bone head move. . . .
I sold the calls on ACI at $4. Should have waited until today even. Now selling for $4.70

[jiesen]

Well, just looking at book value and earnings, I'd say $3-4 would be a pretty safe entry for this one, since you have $2 in book and $0.7 EPS and growing. I'm sure it's really worth quite a bit more, though, as long as those earnings materialize as they're supposed to- but look what happened to BEL- there may be things you don't know about coming down the pike. I'd say if you don't like the CEO, then find a company whose CEO you do trust before putting up your money- or at least wait for a price damn near BV before you buy. Just remember that even the book value is potentially at risk- just look at ABRXQ today. $100M in BV as of the last statement, and a $5M market cap now- perfectly justified, too!

Hmm, looks like that "thing you don't know about" just came to the surface there, Webs.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050830/dhb_industires_zylon.html?.v=2

$4 may be here sooner than we expected. Not that I'd think about buying it in light of the latest development... (Maybe at $2-2.5 though)

[Websman]

Hmm, looks like that "thing you don't know about" just came to the surface there, Webs.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050830/dhb_industires_zylon.html?.v=2

$4 may be here sooner than we expected. Not that I'd think about buying it in light of the latest development... (Maybe at $2-2.5 though)

It might not be a bad plan to short DHB to that level.

[jiesen]

It might not be a bad plan to short DHB to that level.

Careful, though. Just because it could go that low, doesn't mean it will. There are a lot of better short opportunities out there, imo. But I do have to agree, if you must play DHB right now, short is the way to go- but do it with a tight stop, and if you make a quick buck off of it, take it quick and run. I think there's still some value to this company, and it could come roaring back anytime.

[Websman]

I just doubled up my position in OFG (to about 3% of port now) at 13.2. I may be overweighting myself in bank stocks (OFG, FRGB and CIB now are over 6% total portfolio) but I justify it with the slew of insider purchases of OFG over the past few months, the nice dividend, and a $2/shr EPS. If it drops any further, though, I'll admit I'm wrong and cut my loss at 12 or so, but I think OFG is finally showing a little life here, and probably has found bottom at 13. Besides, my other options (I was thinking about picking up more CMTL or AMLN) have already run away from me, and I don't want OFG to get away, too.

I just joined you in OFG. I couldn't resist the bargain price and the upcoming dividend!

I had to take my profit on NGPS to buy OFG, but it's looking like it may pay off.

[dmk112]

Why in the world would you guys consider OFG? jeez what a loser..

[Websman]

Why in the world would you guys consider OFG? jeez what a loser..

Watch and learn. :)

[jiesen]

MRK seems to be shrugging off that $253M verdict like it's nothing. Check it out:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MRK&t=5d

I guess the market expects them to come out of this all right after all. Go figure.... Well, that verdict, while likely to be overturned and/or reduced still makes it just too risky a bet for me to take. Oh well, at least I managed to get out of it with some profit intact.

[New-born baby]

Why in the world would you guys consider OFG? jeez what a loser..

DMK:
Well, OFG was selling for $13.30 earlier this week. It is now a $14 stock.
If you had picked up 1000 shares, you are looking at $700 in one week. And it'll probably see $15 before Sept 28. And the stock is cheap.

Need more reasons? Here's the chart: don't short this one.
http://img123.imageshack.us/img123/4318/chart12pp.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

I'm glad to see that the TA aligns with the FA on this one!

[Websman]

OFG goes up again. :)

[dmk112]

OFG may go to 15 and that is when I will short it :D

[New-born baby]

OFG may go to 15 and that is when I will short it :D

Wait until the record date is past, or else you have to pay the divy!

[dmk112]

Wait until the record date is past, or else you have to pay the divy!


Good reminder, I forgot about that little perk with dividends when shorting.. ouch!

[Websman]

Good reminder, I forgot about that little perk with dividends when shorting.. ouch!

After I take my dividend and collect my profits I may go short myself, if the price action looks weak. For now, my long position is looking good.

[Websman]

Hahaha! Watch OFG run!

[spikefader]

Hahaha! Watch OFG run!:D At last......a Vulcan's revenge on OFG!

[Websman]

:D At last......a Vulcan's revenge on OFG!

The time has come!

[New-born baby]

Dr. Jiesen, Calling Dr. Jiesen.
You are wanted on the FA floor. You are wanted on the FA floor.

Take a look at this one. The chart says, "Buy me; you won't be sorry."
What's the FA on this one? Another AMLN?
http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/9144/chart24qq.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

BFG - looks like a runaway gap to me, nice one!

[jiesen]

hmmm, looks like you found a pretty good one there, NBB...

FDA approval is always key to a biotech's success. And Biovail has just received approval for their pain medication. Hooray for them! The stock definitely deserves to get a premium now for this, but how much? The 25% they've got already yesterday may be all that drug is worth, considering they're already at a $3.6B market cap. But I guess it depends on the market size potential for the drug. It also depends on what else this company has going for it. The success with Tramadol is an indication that other successes will follow, and so makes a good case for a long-term investment here. If I were to buy this, though, I wouldn't go in right now (at least not all the way). I'd save some cash for a pull-back. If it comes back to $19 or $18, back to where it was before approval, then it's a screaming buy. Right now, you may want to wait until the novelty of the approval hype wears off a bit.

Fundamentally, though, the company seems to be doing ok. They're making a profit (usually) and they don't have to sell shares to keep the company afloat. The balance sheet shows about a $0 book value, which is unimpressive, but they also do have about $1B in intangible value, and that is important, if not intrinsically valuable. Because it's a pretty established company, you're paying quite a bit for it at $3.6B, and therefore the upside potential is rather limited. So I guess you'd want to play this for $3-5 swings at a time, if you wanted to maximize profits. You probably won't see this trading at $50 anytime soon. But if you sock away a few shares for a long time, who knows? It could play out very nicely. I haven't looked too deeply into this company, so I couldn't say whether it'll be another AMLN, but I seriously doubt it. Though the market for their products is no doubt huge, they're not exactly a one-of-a-kind or first to market in their category. So margins will be tighter and competition will be tough.

Overall though, it looks like a thumbs up so far on this one, but remember that it's still a biotech, and can pull an ABRX or AAII on you just as easily as any of them, so watch out, and if you haven't really done enough homework on it, stay out, or at least use a stop for safety.

Oh, and they're Canadian, eh.

[jiesen]

BFG - looks like a runaway gap to me, nice one!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OFG&t=5d

You mean OFG, right? Filling the gap down to 14? Looks like a nice place to pick up some shares, before it continues on with its run to 15. I think that OFG seeing 15 this month is a near certainty, unless of course it gaps up to 16.

[dmk112]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OFG&t=5d

You mean OFG, right? Filling the gap down to 14? Looks like a nice place to pick up some shares, before it continues on with its run to 15. I think that OFG seeing 15 this month is a near certainty, unless of course it gaps up to 16.


No i actually mean BVF, I think I was looking at both and blended the symbols LOL

[New-born baby]

Men,
Here's OFG today. When is earnings coming out? And what is the ex-date for the divy? Can someone tell me?

This thing is primed for a surprize announcement. If it is good, it could pop $2.
http://img336.imageshack.us/img336/980/chart25yp.gif (http://imageshack.us)

On the other hand, if it is bad, it could fall down $2.

It doesn't like to get too close to that 50 day.

[Websman]

I'm still in stalking mode to rebuy OFG. I wouldn't mind a little more profit from it.

[jiesen]

AMLN scrip numbers:

Week ending 9/2: Byetta 8813 of which 7455 were new. Symlin: 1508 of which 993 were new.

That's an increase of 25% for Byetta scrips over last week.
This also means that revenue is up 20% this week.

http://members.cox.net/mystock/Amylin.htm

[jiesen]

Got out of NGPS at 27.8, about a 14% gain from where I bought it (24.4). Not quite as much as I wanted out of this one, but not bad either.

[jiesen]

my limit was hit this morning, and I'm out of CMTL with a 20% gain. I guess I should have left it at 38.9, since that also would have hit, but I'm not complaining about the result.

Thanks (again) for this excellent pick, $$MM! You are HUGE!!!

It's time to sell CMTL and make another notch in your belt!

[jiesen]

look at it go! what's up with this one?
:)

[New-born baby]

my limit was hit this morning, and I'm out of CMTL with a 20% gain. I guess I should have left it at 38.9, since that also would have hit, but I'm not complaining about the result.

Thanks (again) for this excellent pick, $$MM! You are HUGE!!!

It's time to sell CMTL and make another notch in your belt!

Do you know his phone number? You ought to call him and get out while he can!!!!

[dmk112]

Got out of NGPS at 27.8, about a 14% gain from where I bought it (24.4). Not quite as much as I wanted out of this one, but not bad either.


Suprised you got out of this one jiesen, especially that it was a nice bullish break of the symmetrical triangle.

[jiesen]

Suprised you got out of this one jiesen, especially that it was a nice bullish break of the symmetrical triangle.

Yeah, I kinda surprised myself with that move, too. NGPS wasn't a long-term hold for me this time anyway, but I guess I sorta chickened out and took the 14% rather than wait for my original plan to pan out. I was planning originally to wait until CMTL hit my target then sell both. If I would have waited to sell it today I could have had another $1/shr or so. Oh well, I still got my 15%+ from both if you average them out, so I'm fine with the results. I'll likely put it all back into $$MM's next pick after he sells CMTL tomorrow, or later this week, and continue on with the plan.

Probably the biggest factor for me was that I was getting tired of following it- nothing about NGPS made me sell it, just my own personal fatigue setting in. I had to install my new lawn this weekend, and I'm also starting to pull some pretty nasty hours at work, now that my boss has quit... sucks to be in biotech right now- working in it anyway.

[jiesen]

Just took a small position (~1%) again in NGPS today. I was thinking to go back in all the way on CMTL but couldn't resist the value of NGPS here at 24 and change. Besides, now that I have both I'm more diversified, right?

Anyway, I plan to sell between 32-36 or wherever it happens to be (assuming it's up) when CMTL hits the 15% for another notch on the $$MM streak.

In case you missed it this was my NGPS plan (bought with half of my CMTL position $$ that I didn't get filled the second time around, because I was waiting for $30). Came pretty close to following through on this, anyway. Didn't make as much as if I would have just bought CMTL at the market then, but I believe I did it with less risk by diversifying into two great stocks instead of just one.

[Websman]

sucks to be in biotech right now- working in it anyway.

You think your line of work sucks, you should try working in my line of work. I have to deal with some of the biggest piece's of convict $#it in the world.
It's amazing how many times I've heard one of these scumbags say that they were set up and that the system is out to get them. To them I say, "F--- you and the f------- horse you rode in on, you f------- maggot!". Talking about job stress!!! I've had it!!! SCREW WORK!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAA!!!!!

ahhh...it feels goog to let out a little steam occasionally. :)

[jiesen]

You think your line of work sucks, you should try working in my line of work. I have to deal with some of the biggest piece's of convict $#it in the world.
It's amazing how many times I've heard one of these scumbags say that they were set up and that the system is out to get them. To them I say, "F--- you and the f------- horse you rode in on, you f------- maggot!". Talking about job stress!!! I've had it!!! SCREW WORK!!! BWAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAA!!!!!

ahhh...it feels goog to let out a little steam occasionally. :)

good point... it could always be worse!

[jiesen]

Suprised you got out of this one jiesen, especially that it was a nice bullish break of the symmetrical triangle.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NGPS&t=5d

Guess I could still get back into NGPS for the same price as I sold it if I really wanted to... but I think I'll hold off on that. Though I would pick CMTL back up again if it gets back to 34 before it hits 39. Then I could go for a third round of 15% on this one!

[dmk112]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NGPS&t=5d

Guess I could still get back into NGPS for the same price as I sold it if I really wanted to... but I think I'll hold off on that. Though I would pick CMTL back up again if it gets back to 34 before it hits 39. Then I could go for a third round of 15% on this one!


Yea, i think you can get back into almost any stock that you sold 2 days ago at the same price... Not linking the action in this market...

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You claim to be a FA guy , well so do I. I'll admit to being a DA when it comes to TA. How about we challenge Spike, New-born and maybe 3 other TA guys to a 5 on 5 Fundy guys vs. Techy guys showdown . We could each pick a stock and see what happens (and none of this 2 hour in and out crap). Is IIC TA or FA or does he go both ways? What say you Jiesen?


billyjoe


What team are you on , fellow Mr.Mkt. members?

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You claim to be a FA guy , well so do I. I'll admit to being a DA when it comes to TA. How about we challenge Spike, New-born and maybe 3 other TA guys to a 5 on 5 Fundy guys vs. Techy guys showdown . We could each pick a stock and see what happens (and none of this 2 hour in and out crap). Is IIC TA or FA or does he go both ways? What say you Jiesen?


billyjoe


What team are you on , fellow Mr.Mkt. members?

Sounds good, Billyjoe- just name the venue and I'll be there. I say we do it in Monroe, WI, OK corrall style. Bring your stocks- whistling and tumbleweeds and all.

For the record, my pick would have to be TM in that fight.
....
Scratch that- I just took a look at AMLN's latest scrip numbers:

9/16 Wk Rx: Byetta 10,749, Symlin 1713 (http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7076553&tid=amln&sid=7076553&mid=145665)

both drugs are up over 30% this week- this stock will be at $40 within a month. Hands down best fundamentals of any stock I follow right now, sign me up for this one pronto, Tonto!

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
I am short TM at $89.03.

I have a piece of chocolate cheese right here that says I can pick up at least $2 off this one within a couple of weeks or less.

Hey, I'm up .05 already! Only $1.95 to go!

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I am short TM at $89.03.

I have a piece of chocolate cheese right here that says I can pick up at least $2 off this one within a couple of weeks or less.

Hey, I'm up .05 already! Only $1.95 to go!

Well, I have no doubt that TM will see $87 this week, based on the charts you've shown- it looked somewhat overextended to me as well... however, I would say within 1 year, we'll see TM setting an all-time high over $100/shr with gas prices well over $3 nationwide and Prius sales double what they are today.

I had my wife put her IRA 100% into TM about two years ago at $65, and her account has outperformed all of mine- I'm so jealous!

[spikefader]

Jiesen,
I am short TM at $89.03.
I have a piece of chocolate cheese right here that says I can pick up at least $2 off this one within a couple of weeks or less.
Hey, I'm up .05 already! Only $1.95 to go!NB, You nut!! lol :D

Forgive the greyscale! clicked the wrong button lol
http://img335.imageshack.us/img335/7507/tmsept26weekly0ip.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

billyjoe

Hey a combined teams TA/FA showdown would be fun. I'm in.

[New-born baby]

NB, You nut!! lol :D

Forgive the greyscale! clicked the wrong button lol
http://img335.imageshack.us/img335/7507/tmsept26weekly0ip.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

It's going to pullback before it move higher--I hope!

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
I am short TM at $89.03.

I have a piece of chocolate cheese right here that says I can pick up at least $2 off this one within a couple of weeks or less.

Hey, I'm up .05 already! Only $1.95 to go!

Covered at $87.60.

[jiesen]

Covered at $87.60.

Good job on the TM short!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050927/japan_auto_production.html?.v=3

First bad news from TM I've heard in awhile (besides recalls). Production is actually down 10% last month.

[New-born baby]

Good job on the TM short!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050927/japan_auto_production.html?.v=3

First bad news from TM I've heard in awhile (besides recalls). Production is actually down 10% last month.

I didn't hear the news. I just saw my chance, and took it.

[Runner]

No i actually mean BVF, I think I was looking at both and blended the symbols LOL

BVF looking pretty good!!

[jiesen]

I'm REALLY liking my FNM puts now:

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh1984 2_2005-10-04_21-54-54_wat004110_newsml

[dmk112]

Covered at $87.60.


Hey that's not $2! :D Good going...

[jiesen]

Getting as much as he did out of shorting this beast:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TM&t=3m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

was a miracle. Many other shorts lay along this road dazed and confused at what just hit them.

[jiesen]

with great numbers out today, and a near 10% dive, (20% off the $$MM price!) I figure FRGB is too good a deal to pass up right now. So I bought an additional ~1% position in FRGB at $73.

Read the FRGB financials posted today- they're fantastic!

[billyjoe]

You're right , Jiesen, however, fear of the future California real estate market must be strangling FRGB. Any other explanation?

billyjoe

[jiesen]

You're right , Jiesen, however, fear of the future California real estate market must be strangling FRGB. Any other explanation?

billyjoe

I agree, however fear=opportunity. FRGB will breathe again soon.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Sorry to bother you during another work break, but when this whole interest rate thing sorts out don't you see some other banking groups that will recover before FRGB and commercial real estate lenders?

billyjoe

[jiesen]

recover from what? FRGB is doing just fine. Just because the price drops doesn't mean FRGB is doing any worse right now. It just means investors are scared, because all they see right now are the housing bubble headlines. This will pass soon, and people will move on to new things to worry about.

Sure, there are probably plenty of banks which will do better, but I am sticking to my limited circle of competence in stocks I've done enough DD to buy.

[New-born baby]

with great numbers out today, and a near 10% dive, (20% off the $$MM price!) I figure FRGB is too good a deal to pass up right now. So I bought an additional ~1% position in FRGB at $73.

Read the FRGB financials posted today- they're fantastic!

Read the financials of HOV, TOL and KBH. They are fantastic, too. But I've been burned enough times to try to wait until I see a bottom on the chart. Double bottom. STO crossover at the 20 line.

OH NO! I FORGOT! YOU'RE A FA GUY!

Jiesen, I wish you the very best. You are a great guy, and a great bottom fisherman while on the clock :D

[New-born baby]

Jiesen--
You know such things:
MRKs chart is awful. Calls for a real shot; I am thinking of shorting this dog into oblivion. BUT today I hear MRK has found a drug for cervical cancer. According to the report, all cervical cancer is produced by a virus transmitted by the male to the woman. MRK says they have had a 100% cure rate in treating this virus. Stock is up .23 today. Not great new, apparently.

What does our FA and Drug stock and Bottom Fishing expert say?

Jiesen,
Did you catch the action today with MRK? I almost shorted it when it was up 58 cents. Held off. Then at the close, things got quite bloody. Look:

[jiesen]

it is great news! However, whether current investors in MRK will see profits from this breakthrough is debatable. The recent verdict against MRK forced me to sell my position, since I can no longer ignore the possibility that the lawyers will be able to eat MRK's lunch, including profits from this miracle cure or any other MRK is able to come up with in the future.

It's still a good shot that MRK will come through ok, but not enough for me to invest at this price. I wouldn't be shorting it here either, though. What if MRK actually wins one of these cases?

[Lyehopper]

recover from what? FRGB is doing just fine. Just because the price drops doesn't mean FRGB is doing any worse right now. It just means investors are scared, because all they see right now are the housing bubble headlines. This will pass soon, and people will move on to new things to worry about.

Sure, there are probably plenty of banks which will do better, but I am sticking to my limited circle of competence in stocks I've done enough DD to buy.

I posted this on the FRGB thread....

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/3269/frgb3rd.png

I realize my TA is not up to "Spike" standards but I think a quick 61.8% retracement of a fundamentally sound stock is worth noting.

[New-born baby]

I posted this on the FRGB thread....

http://img397.imageshack.us/img397/3269/frgb3rd.png

I realize my TA is not up to "Spike" standards but I think a quick 61.8% retracement of a fundamentally sound stock is worth noting.


Sure it is. Now the question: is that the only indicator you want to jump in?
You could look for an intraday pattern too. But let's check the chart out to see what else we might find:

http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/2438/chart12gu.gif (http://imageshack.us)

I wish you the very best. I am too scared to buy this one.

[New-born baby]

FRGB is up some at 10:06 EST. Last sale was $72.97. So the market maker moved the ask up to $73.97. That figure marks the neckline. What should happen is that $74. is touched and rejected.

[jiesen]

FRGB is up some at 10:06 EST. Last sale was $72.97. So the market maker moved the ask up to $73.97. That figure marks the neckline. What should happen is that $74. is touched and rejected.

NBB,

I think you've practically called the bottom there at 71.99. Your crystal ball may need some adjustment!

[New-born baby]

NBB,

I think you've practically called the bottom there at 71.99. Your crystal ball may need some adjustment!

You could very well be correct. If FRGB would close right now, she formed a tweezer bottom, a bullish reversal signal. Volume is low, but higher than normal for this stock.

Still, I am not bullish on her right now. I could very well be completely wrong, but I am not yet convinced I am.

Best to you, Jiesen!

[spikefader]

NBB,

I think you've practically called the bottom there at 71.99. Your crystal ball may need some adjustment!
heh, ya, NB, forgot all about the tweezer bottom. :D That one was only a penny off NB, and is a better example of one NB (as per our other converstion about tweezers).

But as to crystal ball, that's funny. And this is an example of why saying a stock WILL do this or that, and taking a rigid stance like NB does, can come back and make one look silly, but that's alright :D Gives us something to kid each other about.

But as far as my view, I see the major weekly channel long coincided with that tweezer double bottom, and that's as good a setup as you need to see to get firey bullish until yesterday's low breaks. So I'm firey bullish on it.

Great observations Lyehopper. A lot of people do 'believe' fibs and I'm one of 'em. They really are a fascinating phenomena. But it's not so much believing it, as merely playing one particular setup in the world of TA.

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/6643/frgboct71aj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Sure I'm dogmatic. I'm a preacher. FRGB is just another example of how a daily and weekly chart disagree. No channel long touch on the daily. Money flow is awful. "It is what it is until it ain't."

[spikefader]

Sure I'm dogmatic. I'm a preacher. FRGB is just another example of how a daily and weekly chart disagree. No channel long touch on the daily. Money flow is awful. "It is what it is until it ain't."LOL, well no-one can accuse you of being without conviction :D. But what IS it really? A weelky ALWAYS trumps a daily NB. :D Don't you think? You are basing your analysis on price action for only 2 months, and yep, short term it's been bearish. But fast short-term action into long-term heavy support (with such a great looking weekly chart, including money flow) down to great vol by price on both charts can't be ignored.

I think with this one, your read can't see the trees for the forest - heh, but hey!; from small things come grand creations. But right now, with that tweezer in place, and the weekly long, it IS bullish, and I think your bearish view is in trouble :D

[New-born baby]

LOL, well no-one can accuse you of being without conviction :D. But what IS it really? A weelky ALWAYS trumps a daily NB. :D Don't you think? You are basing your analysis on price action for only 2 months, and yep, short term it's been bearish. But fast short-term action into long-term heavy support (with such a great looking weekly chart, including money flow) down to great vol by price on both charts can't be ignored.

I think with this one, your read can't see the trees for the forest - heh, but hey!; from small things come grand creations. But right now, with that tweezer in place, and the weekly long, it IS bullish, and I think your bearish view is in trouble :D

Yes, Spike, my read may very well be in trouble. Charts aren't 100% accurate, and somebody like me makes them even less effective.

I am not quite ready to quit on this one for this reason: remember a few days ago, oil broke the neck on s~h~s formation? You posted that she'd fall to $58, perhaps $50. That very day she bounced back up above the neck. Then yesterday she fell through the neck again, and I do think oil will hit your targets. So what I am saying is this: today, everybody is up (save BMHC :D), and FRGB is in with the crowd. But we'll see what happens next week. I am thinking bearish thoughts on her. But hopefully she'll take out MMs target first.

If the weekly trumps the daily, (always, no less!), then DELL and WMT are definite shorts. WMT weekly (from 1999) calls for $20- bottom. Sam is dead and gone, and the chain is suffering from a lack of his leadership.

Thank you for the counterpoint. I'll certainly be instructed by what happens.

[Lyehopper]

Sure I'm dogmatic. I'm a preacher. FRGB is just another example of how a daily and weekly chart disagree. No channel long touch on the daily. Money flow is awful. "It is what it is until it ain't."
I'm watching and learning....

[spikefader]

...right now, with that tweezer in place, and the weekly long, it IS bullish, and I think your bearish view is in trouble :DOK, the tweezer has been taken out, so I'm on board with your bearish view NB! :D

[jiesen]

bought a small (<1%) position in IDWS today at .36. They're supposed to be announcing a minimum 0.37 dividend today.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
In the words of my grammaw "I never heard tell of such a thing"


billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Spike,
BHMC fell pretty hard today. Made all my calls look very nice. I hope BillyJoe is okay.

I have been out of the office all this week. Can only check in at nights. But I have this bit of news if anyone is thinking GM short: Dr. K wants to buy another large stake in the company, and get a seat on the board. Seems the SEC is going to okay the manuever. Might make a short pretty uncomfortable. Might make a long a nice move (collect the divy and the capital gains). I haven't been able to follow the posts so I am just posting. Sorry if I am being redundant to another's post.

Best to ya!

[jiesen]

bought a small (<1%) position in IDWS today at .36. They're supposed to be announcing a minimum 0.37 dividend today.

sold out of IDWS today at 0.47 for about a 30% gain (in 1 day). They raised the dividend amount to 0.87 or more today (instead of actually declaring it). Great, I'll take the profit now, and not bother to find out whether they're actually going to pay this or not. If it goes up another 30% from here I just might catch Spike in the POTW! Wouldn't put real money on that happening though...

[spikefader]

Spike,
BHMC fell pretty hard today. Made all my calls look very nice. I hope BillyJoe is okay.

I have been out of the office all this week. Can only check in at nights. But I have this bit of news if anyone is thinking GM short: Dr. K wants to buy another large stake in the company, and get a seat on the board. Seems the SEC is going to okay the manuever. Might make a short pretty uncomfortable. Might make a long a nice move (collect the divy and the capital gains). I haven't been able to follow the posts so I am just posting. Sorry if I am being redundant to another's post.

Best to ya!

Yes it did. And today too. Warning Will Robinson was 100% right! Once it lost 85.99 it was destined for disaster. It didn't even blink at the gap support and fell straight through it without much volume support at all.
The double top was sitting there, the failed bull flag, and the last two days are pure cream for your calls. Approaching support, so might be a good time to think about taking profits. Bid S2 or S1 prices and wait for the fill to maximize your profit, and if you're really bearish on her, sell more at the top of any 4 correction she makes.

Great trade on that NB, very nice indeed. Thnx for the tip on GM.

[jiesen]

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/17/bloomberg/sxdocomo.php

What if DCM picks XING? MSFT did!

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051109/cnw015.html?.v=1

[billyjoe]

Are you sure you're not really Wu Zhi Ziesen , CEO of XING ? We love our Chinese friends , you will be very wealthy man soon.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

Yeah, I will be if the market recognizes XING's true value before my Dec $10 calls expire... otherwise I'm only ~2% in XING right now.

[jiesen]

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/Health/Bird_Flu
you had your chance, now it looks like the BFB (bird flu bandwagon) has lost a wheel.

time to short VICL? (I'm actually not suggesting that, just throwing it out there for discussion)

[Lyehopper]

Yeah, I will be if the market recognizes XING's true value before my Dec $10 calls expire... otherwise I'm only ~2% in XING right now.
Mighty close to green now in the POTW Jiesen! Good pick here, what's your target? chart looks pretty good might see $10 afore long.

[spikefader]

.. (http://news.yahoo.com/fc/Health/Bird_Flu)
time to short VICL? (I'm actually not suggesting that, just throwing it out there for discussion)
I think so. Bearish candle, now a double top, and a sell signal on the 20-day chart psar/mfi. I don't think 3.00 is out of the question...

[Lyehopper]

http://news.yahoo.com/fc/Health/Bird_Flu
you had your chance, now it looks like the BFB (bird flu bandwagon) has lost a wheel.

time to short VICL? (I'm actually not suggesting that, just throwing it out there for discussion)
Funny you posted that Jiesen! I was just about to post a VICL chart on Webs short thread as a good "HYPED up" short prospect. I JUST sold my last shares this morning dude! You have one keen eye my friend!

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
I know I tease you about XING , the 8 ft. tall XING twins , and XING went the strings of Jiesen's heart, but please tell me you're still holding XING. Had trouble sleeping last night worrying about XING.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

just a small stake now. sure wish I hadn't sold so much already. at least I still have the Dec 10 calls, which could keep me from going totally berzerk if it really spikes.

I am still looking to sell, though. Despite the rosy forecasts, this company has consistently shattered expectations (to the downside), and I have other places in mind that I'd like to put the money.

[billyjoe]

You said you sold when earnings disappointed at 5.8. Was that around June 30th? I can't see any other time period with above average selling near that price. I'm always trying to figure a correlation between earnings reports and reaction time of the stock's price up or down. Also the time it takes to recover after a bad report or settle down after a great report.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

You said you sold when earnings disappointed at 5.8. Was that around June 30th? I can't see any other time period with above average selling near that price. I'm always trying to figure a correlation between earnings reports and reaction time of the stock's price up or down. Also the time it takes to recover after a bad report or settle down after a great report.

billyjoe

Yep, it was June 30th that the report came out and I sold the bulk of it. I just doubled-checked and it was actually at 6.2 that I sold. I had sold some smaller amounts around 5.2 earlier, and for some reason 5.8 stuck in my mind (maybe that's the price the stock hit when the ER came out initially). I'm sure if you go back in this thread you'll find the actual trades as I made them, but that's too much trouble for me, when I can just look at my account. :)

[jiesen]

Damn, the ER was NOT what I was expecting. I sold most of my XING for between $6.2-5.8 and hold about a 2% position in it now. I am disappointed in the low revenues and profits for last year. I might buy back if it falls low enough on this disappointment, but I'm getting tired of following this company after what it's put me through.

Ok, well I found the post anyway... says I sold at 5.8-6.2, and so I also checked my IRA account, and sure enough, there's another
(smaller) sale at 5.85. That's why I was thinking 5.8.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You don't work for Amylin , do you ? My psychic powers are picking up something about "inside information" or something like that , I'm usually pretty accurate , but the 2,357 mile distance is blurring the messages.

billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You don't work for Amylin , do you ? My psychic powers are picking up something about "inside information" or something like that , I'm usually pretty accurate , but the 2,357 mile distance is blurring the messages.

billyjoe

No, I don't. And I don't have any inside info, either. I used to work on an Amylin contract while at a contract lab a few years ago, though, and still have a few friends working there, which is why I'm more familiar with what they're doing than your average investor.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
That's a pretty good endorsement. Usually the more familiar a person is with a business and their employees , the less likely they'd be to invest. Another one to keep an eye on. Thanks. Any lab equipment manufacturers looking good to you these days?

billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
That's a pretty good endorsement. Usually the more familiar a person is with a business and their employees , the less likely they'd be to invest. Another one to keep an eye on. Thanks. Any lab equipment manufacturers looking good to you these days?

billyjoe

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIO&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=a,wat,bdx

I've always liked Bio-rad, but never bought it. :regrets:

[jiesen]

of all the companies making money off of my lab activities, though, I'd have to say Sigma-Aldrich tops the list:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SIAL&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[jiesen]

just bought some more AFT at .83, still under a 1% position. The news was rough, but still doesn't merit this kind of drop.

[jiesen]

just sold those shares for 0.94. didn't expect it to hit that quick, but had a limit order in place just in case. I might stalk it again in the low .80's but doubt it will come back far enough for me.

[jiesen]

bought an additional 1% position in GFCI today (total is still under 2%)

[spikefader]

http://img479.imageshack.us/img479/3235/amlndec131gl.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

holy crap, look at LJPC go!

[jiesen]

bought an additional 1% position in GFCI today (total is still under 2%)

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/051219/20051219005440.html?.v=1

see? Grifco's CEO also thought it was undervalued at 0.2! Now I'm up over 50% (on that purchase) in a week.

[jiesen]

just sold those shares for 0.94. didn't expect it to hit that quick, but had a limit order in place just in case. I might stalk it again in the low .80's but doubt it will come back far enough for me.

man, what was I thinking letting those $0.83 AFT shares go at 0.94? Coulda had another $0.40 out of it. Doh!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AFT&t=5d

[jiesen]

OK, I'm gonna try to use this thread to (aside from taking over the world) disclose my equity trades to you guys, seeing how everyone else seems to be doing it...

I appreciate any comments, jabs or whatever else smack-talk you may have to say about my moves. It all helps me out- since I'm here trying to learn how to be a better investor, and the more information the better...

I'm selling the market today (<1% of port) by closing out an underperforming mutual fund.

To give perspective, here's an *approximate* breakdown of my positions:
25% cash&bonds
25% mutual funds
25% $$MM stocks
25% other stocks
other stocks include:
10% each in LJPC and XING
>1% each in MRK MSFT DRUG.OB SSRI
<1% each in MSPD CNXT
that's it.

I include in my $$MM stocks RRGB and WSB in addition to the stocks $$MM currently holds... Also, I have increased (at least doubled) positions in PRX BEL OFG GGI and NUS

A year later, and it's time to reflect on my portfolio again, to see how it's been working out (or not). This year has not been very spectacular for me. Though I'm not up at all, I'm not down much either (down perhaps 5% overall). Both of my major holdings this year (XING and LJPC) took major hits, and I all but closed out my XING near its low at around $6. I've continued to buy LJPC(D) automatically (as I do bonds and mutual funds) through my retirement plan (guess where I work) so while it's down over 50% for the year, most of what I've bought this year is still worth 15% more than I paid for it (I get a 15% discount to market). While the returns from these two positions alone would be enough to make me cry, these poor returns were nearly balanced out by decent returns from the rest of my portfolio: $$MM stocks returned around 15-20%, mutual funds ranged from about 6-12% and cash/bonds paid 2-4%. So, my portfolio ended up looking much like it did last year, with:

(approximately)
25% cash&bonds
25% mutual funds
25% $$MM stocks
25% other stocks
other stocks include:
15% in LJPC
1-2% each in XING MSFT AMLN GFCI.PK SSRI
<1% in DRUG.OB MSPD AFT

Also, in the 25% $$MM stocks, I still count my overweight positions in PRX BEL OFG and NUS (GGI was sold, as was RRGB) and still own a small position in WSB. I have also picked up small positions in ARLP and ACRG.OB (a $$MM top 5 stock) along the way, and still expect more than 100% out of each of those.

[Websman]

I gave up on mutual funds when I found out that I could do much better on my own. I guess I'm a control freak.

[jiesen]

I found some pretty good reading, in case anyone's bored. It's good to take your eye off the ball for a minute sometimes, and look at the bigger picture:

http://www.oid.com/public/html/excerpts/CenturyMgmt2004/CenturyMgmtExcerpt2004.pdf

[jiesen]

I'm moving about a 2% position out of mutual funds into bonds today. I believe from this point, a 5% return is likely to do better than the overall market- at least in the short run. We could easily see another large correction (I'm pretty sure that one will occur before the NAS gets to 2500), and if we do see a 10% correction this year, I'll put the money back to work again. Until then, I'll be happy with my 5% on this chunk of change.

[jiesen]

Took a 2% position in USG at 91.1- saw Spike take it long in the POTW. The asbestos settlement should keep this running for at least a couple more days, so I figure I'll try to use Spike's TA to scalp a few bucks off of the run. Of course the minute I buy it, I see he's flipped over to the short side. oh well! the news still says this stock goes up this week. But I won't argue with the chart either on this one, and if it drops to 85 I'm out.

[spikefader]

USG man, what a pop today huh. That was Creme of the Crop Superstock ya know - just closed it Friday and missed that 20% pop today lol

I saw it makes a c long and then a little triangle breakout and it looked set to continue booming on the daily and weeklies. I actually got very aggressive with my long entry and got caught in a bulltrap Doh! Then the 'c' failure and my -4% stop, so I figured shoo, that ain't a good sign - so did the old spikefade play looking for intraday pivot of 79.65. Not sure if I'll close it there or not yet, but that'll give me green POTW which I need lol

Good luck with it long dude. If you're lookin' to add, I'd suggest 86.00 price support, then 79.65, then yesterday's low. Under there, I wouldn't be holding a long for it myself.

[jiesen]

thanks for the TA input, Spike! And for bringing this to my attention in the first place. Win or lose on this one, I'm going to learn something- that's for sure.

[jiesen]

just sold at 94.4. Was hoping to get a good $5 or $6 out of it by the end of the week, but with $3 profit already in hand, why risk holding it overnight if I don't have to? I'll be happy with this, and not whine tomorrow when it's over $100.

Thanks again, Spike. I'm going to ponder this trade tonight to figure out exactly what was going through my head when I did it...

[jiesen]

An interesting tidbit about Buffett and USG:

http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7080974&tid=brka&sid=7080974&mid=314492

This a.m. USG announces it has reached settlements on its asbestos issues with everybody involved and will be out of bankrupcy soon. Berkshire gets a $100M fee for "backstopping" USG's $1.8B "rights offering." BRK's 6.5M shares of USG are also up $9/share to $89/sh so far in pre-market. Buffett bought USG for ~$15/sh a few years ago. So it's now worth close to $600M. Just your typical six-bagger.

As the usual amazing Buffett twist, WEB bought his entire position in USG for about $100M. Now, a few years later, Berkshire gets a $100M FEE from USG this morning for backstopping its rights offering.

[ParkTwain]

Buffett has behaved as an "insider" type investor (a "control investor" a la Marty Whitman's books) since the early 1960s, I believe. He gets access to information inside the target company that the typical "outside passive minority investor," or OPMI (a la Marty Whitman's books), like you and me doesn't have access to. (That's why I've felt for some time that the financial journalists are doing the individual investor a great disservice by encouraging "copying" Buffett's investing modus operandi.) He had all these terms arranged at the time of his investment in USG. He was buying "damaged goods" and knew how to make arrangements that made for a high probability of a successful transition of the business to become "worthful goods."

Here is an EXCELLENT synopsis of Whitman's book "Value Investing: A Balanced Approach," including why it's just great <cough> to be an OPMI:
https://www.traderslibrary.net/moreinfo.asp?item=10491&SID=OZDEQTFXPOUE70BC279778536725DBDE&excerpt=yes&lc=cart

(For best results, print this article in landscape orientation.)

This synopsis is much easier to read than the book itself. Very high-caliber stuff. Whitman is not the greatest writer, but his ideas and knowledge are first rate and world class. Any serious investor should read everything ever written by Martin J. Whitman, one of the supreme value investors of all time. Anyone can let him do most of the work by placing funds in one of the Third Avenue Funds (http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/taf/index.html).

[jiesen]

great link, there, PT! I'm replying so briefly only because I'm too busy reading this synopsis...

[jiesen]

I'm down to about a 1.5% position in XING now. Happy to get 7.6 for this sale. I'm planning to put this into BBD, when it looks too cheap to pass up.

[New-born baby]

I'm down to about a 1.5% position in XING now. Happy to get 7.6 for this sale. I'm planning to put this into BBD, when it looks too cheap to pass up.

Calling Jiesen, the Fundamental Analysis Genius. Calling Jiesen: the Fundamental Analysis genius . . .

Okay, tell me why I should buy BBD--and when. :D Sure, MM had a great write up. Anything you could add?
Thank you!

[jiesen]

Calling Jiesen, the Fundamental Analysis Genius. Calling Jiesen: the Fundamental Analysis genius . . .

Okay, tell me why I should buy BBD--and when. :D Sure, MM had a great write up. Anything you could add?
Thank you!

Great questions, NBB! You'll really make me do my homework on this one. I like that. And yes, $$MM's writeup was fantastic. In fact it covered everything I knew and loved about BBD plus much more. So I'm digging deeper tonight to find out more about this one before I add to my position.

I'm finding a lot of good info summarized in their latest 4Q05 Conference Call:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060222/spw099.html?.v=2

So far, I haven't been able to get the sound working (I'll try again from a different computer later) but the charts and figures in the presentation speak pretty much for themselves. Check it out.

With a book value around $10 and earnings of $2.5 last year rising to $3 this year, there's a very hard floor to support the stock price in case the market decides to dump it into the basement. If they continue to execute like they have been (and I expect they will) they will be increasing the BV by 25%-30% per year. Growth in the earnings should continue to be rewared by an expanding P/E multiple from the current 14, and as time goes on, the floor of BV will continue the steady march up, eventually forcing the stock price higher, just by the value of the assests behind the company.

Now as for your question about when to buy, I'd say if you don't own this stock, now is as good a time as any to buy it. By the fact that it's passed $$MM's screen into the top 5, it's likely to be one of the best stocks that you can own right now- and of these 5, it looks to be the safest, most likely stock to hit the 15% target. By virtue of its being a large bank, the numbers are very easy to examine and compare to other banks, and the plans are drawn out clearly enough for maximum comfort with this investment.

If you've got some already now, like I do, then putting a target for a second or even third position in the $30-35 range may be a good idea, just in case the market gives us a really great deal on this stock. I'll probably pick up another third to half of my position somewhere in that range if it gets down that low, though I'm not holding my breath for that- and may just add some more right here around $37-38. It'll depend somewhat on how much I like what I read about the business plan, and where I see this company headed. So far, I'm liking what I see very much.

[New-born baby]

Jiesen, you are a genius! Thank you so much.

I have not entered this stock just yet. The reason for that:
Chart did not say "enter now."

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support. HHmmmm. If you buy here, you must put the stops in here because there is no option chain to save you. I'd say support holds for one hammer stroke for sure; maybe twice. She cannot be hammered three times and hold. The chart formation makes me wonder if some insider knows things are not right inside the numbers. Your bullish writeups and this chart don't agree. Sure, it could be some Brazilian drug lord taking his cash out in order to expand inventory . . . but we will have to wait and see. What we need is a volume jump off of support.
So if you want to add to your position, look for volume at the neckline. If the neck breaks, we could see $28-30.
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4157/file11qq.png (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

Thanks, NBB. Despite your insistence to the contrary, XING is sure making me feel like a moron today... I could have probably sold today for 10% more at the 52-wk high!

Oh well, them's the breaks. At least I'm still holding onto another piece of it.

[jiesen]

Jiesen, you are a genius! Thank you so much.

I have not entered this stock just yet. The reason for that:
Chart did not say "enter now."

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support. HHmmmm. If you buy here, you must put the stops in here because there is no option chain to save you. I'd say support holds for one hammer stroke for sure; maybe twice. She cannot be hammered three times and hold. The chart formation makes me wonder if some insider knows things are not right inside the numbers. Your bullish writeups and this chart don't agree. Sure, it could be some Brazilian drug lord taking his cash out in order to expand inventory . . . but we will have to wait and see. What we need is a volume jump off of support.
So if you want to add to your position, look for volume at the neckline. If the neck breaks, we could see $28-30.


Ok, well let's see if we get a lucky triple-hammer neck-break, so I can load the boat at $30! That'll more than make up for my poorly-timed exit from XING, with the extra 33% profit in the end.

[Rob]

Here's the daily chart. What is now forming is a head and shoulders top--or maybe not. You see, what is required is that BBD break the pink neckline in order for it to be a head and shoulders top. That neckline coincides with a support level--if support holds it is a beautiful buying opportunity. But the support level is pretty thin right there--weak support.
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/4157/file11qq.png (http://imageshack.us/)Newborn, allow me to cross-examine your analysis please. First, I know only a little about technical analysis, and so I'm in no way attempting to make anyone think I'm some T/A guru. While I do like looking at charts and patterns and trying to determine what recent price and volume trends are saying—if they're saying anything—my take is colored almost exclusively by what my own wits and intuition tell me, because I've done only marginal reading on the subject.

So now to my question. In this chart you point out on the price-by-volume overlay that there is very little volume at the neck line and reason that this indicates little support at that level. Now my own instinct is saying to me: The reason there is so little volume there is because the price shot right past it so fast there was hardly any time to accumulate a lot of volume there. But look at all the volume above that level! How can you discount all that buy interest?

If you look at a 2-year daily (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39785526698) on BBD, there was a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that formed between ealry Feb. and late March of '05, and it proceeded to blow it out of the water! Looking at that same chart, though, look at how the stock repeatedly finds support at the 50-day SMA. To me that support at the 50-day is pretty hard to ignore. As Bill O'Reilly likes to say, "Am I wrong?"

[jiesen]

Just sold most of my GFCI at 0.22 (a 1% position- cost basis around 0.24) and I am keeping just a small piece (about 1/5) just in case it takes off, and I can get my small loss back. I was sort of feeling screwed by this company's lack of transparency. But I guess that's what you get when you buy into a pinky. At least I didn't panic and dump it at .13 yesterday.

I'm thinking about putting this $$ into MFLX.

[New-born baby]

I'm thinking about putting this $$ into MFLX.

As a friend and an admirer, I would suggest waiting another day to invest. If you check the chart, MFLX never takes a huge hit like today and recover anything the next day. The next day is also red.

Even worse, Jiesen, is that today's action is forming a bearish engulfing candle on MFLX. bearish engulfing candle spells trouble (http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/interactivebrokers-com/html-newsandcommentary.asp?symb=MFLX&pWidth=400&c=340)

[jiesen]

thanks for the input, NBB, but I went ahead and picked up an additional 1/3 of my position at 59.4 (surprisingly, it hit my limit). I might reassess this purchase over the weekend, but I think I just picked up a great bargain.

[New-born baby]

thanks for the input, NBB, but I went ahead and picked up an additional 1/3 of my position at 59.4 (surprisingly, it hit my limit). I might reassess this purchase over the weekend, but I think I just picked up a great bargain.
You are a good investor and you know what you are doing. I am looking at the computer generated PnF and it says "$53" or less before MFLX recovers. I know I have been wrong before--MRK come to mind--but I would rather have seen you sell those $55 puts ($1) and let somebody pay you to buy the stock at $55 than here with no assistance. You could sell the $60 calls (APR $2.45) and collect the premium as MFLX drops, and cover (or let them expire worthless, depending upon the time frame) when she bottoms.

I have no intention of upsetting anyone who owns MFLX. I am giving advice about how to protect yourself against loss. MFLX has a very nice option chain, and you can collect premiums as long as she is diving. Then you can cover and make 50% off of her if you wish. I'd suggest MM types ought to take the free money.

Very best to you, MM and all who are on board the MFLX train.

[Adam]

Just hoping that train keeps a rollin in the right direction!!!

[jiesen]

You are a good investor and you know what you are doing. I am looking at the computer generated PnF and it says "$53" or less before MFLX recovers. I know I have been wrong before--MRK come to mind--but I would rather have seen you sell those $55 puts ($1) and let somebody pay you to buy the stock at $55 than here with no assistance. You could sell the $60 calls (APR $2.45) and collect the premium as MFLX drops, and cover (or let them expire worthless, depending upon the time frame) when she bottoms.

I have no intention of upsetting anyone who owns MFLX. I am giving advice about how to protect yourself against loss. MFLX has a very nice option chain, and you can collect premiums as long as she is diving. Then you can cover and make 50% off of her if you wish. I'd suggest MM types ought to take the free money.

Very best to you, MM and all who are on board the MFLX train.

Thanks for the helpful analysis, NBB. I probably won't be buying any options on MFLX, and I think I'll probably stay away from options in general for awhile, as I believe that's a bit out of my league still. (doing my taxes always puts things in perspective- like seeing 9/10 option trades end up in losses)

It's always nice to hear your take on a stock I'm considering/buying. It gives me some perspective on the rationale that the market can use to move stocks in ways that seem to defy value. I'm taking note of the $53 target and look forward to buying more under that, if such an opportunity presents itself without any major fundamental change in this company's earnings prospects.

[New-born baby]

Thanks for the helpful analysis, NBB. I probably won't be buying any options on MFLX, and I think I'll probably stay away from options in general for awhile, as I believe that's a bit out of my league still. (doing my taxes always puts things in perspective- like seeing 9/10 option trades end up in losses)

It's always nice to hear your take on a stock I'm considering/buying. It gives me some perspective on the rationale that the market can use to move stocks in ways that seem to defy value. I'm taking note of the $53 target and look forward to buying more under that, if such an opportunity presents itself without any major fundamental change in this company's earnings prospects.

Jiesen,
Anything you do is fine with me because it is your money, and you are a very good investor. May I kindly make this observation--as a friend? You already own the stock today at $59.40. You sell the APR $60 calls at $2.45 and you have profit if the stock is above $60 APR 21. If the stock is $59.99 on APR 21, you still have the stock and the $245. If the stock is $53, you have the stock and $245 extra. It guarantees you $62.45 for a $59.40 stock--that's 5% profit--if the stock is above $60 on expiration. The only thing you could possibly lose are: (1). excess profits above $62.45, and (2). the bragging rights to saying "I made more than 15% on this stock."

In short, you can't really lose on this trade, imo. :D

[jiesen]

Thanks for the kind suggestion, NBB. I think I'm still a few years away from selling covered calls, though. Your plan makes a couple of assumptions about my account size/type that unfortunately aren't true (my MFLX is in a cash only IRA account). Now, if you want to loan me $6000-12000 I'll gladly make just that trade in my margin account tomorrow, and split the profit with ya. But for now, I'm laying off the options, as well as margin.

[New-born baby]

Thanks for the kind suggestion, NBB. I think I'm still a few years away from selling covered calls, though. Your plan makes a couple of assumptions about my account size/type that unfortunately aren't true (my MFLX is in a cash only IRA account). Now, if you want to loan me $6000-12000 I'll gladly make just that trade in my margin account tomorrow, and split the profit with ya. But for now, I'm laying off the options, as well as margin.

Okay. I am not too well versed on IRA accounts, but my understanding is that covered calls are permitted in IRA accounts because they are so safe. If you own the stock, you need no margin--should the stock be in 100 share increments.

What do I know about IRAs? Nothing.

Best to you, ya Genius Jiesen!

[DSteckler]

<< my understanding is that covered calls are permitted in IRA accounts because they are so safe. >>

They're permitted not because they're safe but because there's no margin involved with a covered call.

[jiesen]

thanks for the input, NBB, but I went ahead and picked up an additional 1/3 of my position at 59.4 (surprisingly, it hit my limit). I might reassess this purchase over the weekend, but I think I just picked up a great bargain.

That $59 MFLX buy isn't looking so bad now, after all, is it? (nor is my BBD pick at 35.5)

Looks like I'd have been better off sticking with GFCI though... ah well, coulda shoulda woulda. But I am trying to avoid pinkies from here on out.

[New-born baby]

That $59 MFLX buy isn't looking so bad now, after all, is it? (nor is my BBD pick at 35.5)

Looks like I'd have been better off sticking with GFCI though... ah well, coulda shoulda woulda. But I am trying to avoid pinkies from here on out.

Jiesen,
Yes, it looks pretty good today. Of course you understand that we are expecting a rebound today, and the formation of a right shoulder. For your sakes I hope we are wrong about the formation of a shoulder. If MFLX moves above the previous high of $68, we are wrong. That's what you need to void the pattern. For me I could have bought MFLX long today and ride it higher with a stop.

I don't have anything in MFLX at this time, although I came within a whisker of buying some the first time it tumbled. I hope you cash out with an excess of 15%! :D

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
Today is an excellent day to sell a covered call on this one if you plan to hold. Big volume dry up, and that PnF still says $47--I expect MFLX to round off right here and form that head and shoulder. It is acting textbook perfect . . . .

[New-born baby]

Here's the dope on how a head and shouders forms. NOTE THE VOLUME>




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) ******Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again.******* Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. (Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.) New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.) (Chart examples of head and shoulders patterns using commodity charts.) (Stock charts.)

[spikefader]

Newborn, allow me to cross-examine your analysis please....So now to my question. In this chart you point out on the price-by-volume overlay that there is very little volume at the neck line and reason that this indicates little support at that level. Now my own instinct is saying to me: The reason there is so little volume there is because the price shot right past it so fast there was hardly any time to accumulate a lot of volume there. But look at all the volume above that level! How can you discount all that buy interest?.....As Bill O'Reilly likes to say, "Am I wrong?"
Hey, Rob, excellent question dude....and it prompts some thoughts I'll share.

My humble observation on volume by price is that it's just another whisper from a chart, to be given the weight it is due. And that comes back to it is what it is until it isn't.

Vol by price, plus any other method of discerning where support or resistance volume might be, OR any other support/resistance idenfication method, no matter what the system, is all relative to majority market bias that leads to price discovery......the market can remain irrational for longer than we can remain liquid in stubborn opposition to it. With the bull, resistances will just keep getting smashed and supports will just keep holding with large support bids. Alternatively, with the bear, supports keep failing and high volume is selling at resistances that impressively hold.

Price discovery mechanics in the market is a hugely complex thing, hardly dependant on a single indicator or chart observation or even the most brilliant TA plan or bias that is saying X, because if the market wants Y, then the TA is simply going to fail. Thus is speculation. The combined action of the majority market participants is what decides whether TA is proven valid or not. It just boils down to whether "it" "they" "them" want to "listen" to a vol by price whisper from a chart, and even if it appears they are listening to it, it may all be just coincidental. There's no way to prove that any TA was the leading cause for price movement, in the same way that one can never really prove whether volume has led price (massive market orders) or whether price has led volume (massive limit orders that are more orderly driving price). The difference between those two what makes the difference between panic in the streets or bubbles in the air, or simply a good trend day up or down. The problem for us traders and investors is that no-one can ever really know for sure what is happening, because no one really knows who the lead dog is, and who’s got the biggest play on the table, or how deep their pockets are, the level of risk, and the dollar value of that risk, or whether an issue is even being traded in such a way. How can one know for sure if there are big pockets unloading into strength in a manipulated short play? Can one truly rely on time and sales to know such a thing? No. What about tape-reading? How reliable or easy is that to judge? It isn’t easy. Sure, watching that stuff helps, but deception is often very well hidden and not clear until after the fact. That’s just normal speculation to drive price discovery. Top dog is gonna usually win right? And then throw in unexpected newsworthy fundamentals and it becomes truly and amazingly difficult to ‘get it right’; this whole volume/support/resistance stuff. But it’s worth trying to get; for those 3 things are the be all and end all of speculation. Indicators schmindicators dudes. They are just another way to express those 3 things. They are just a graphical representation of oscillations and averages and smoke and daggers that will blind you if you let them. Bottom line is that volume on a chart, and where the support and resistances area, is all you need to know to be able to form a plan to trade well, and it’s by putting the r/r numbers on your side that you will do well in the long run.

So when you’re looking at a chart, try to look at what the volume is doing relative to the support and resistance. Which is it; the bull or bear volume leading price by with market orders, or a more orderly move with limit orders and flashing bids of size that is slowly moving to chase price? Does it even make a difference? I say it does. It goes to intent. It helps identify motive at a given price, and arguably where true support is going to leave or resistance is going to break.

To your observation of high volume that can't be discounted on the bullish side, I would suggest that if you have a top-heavy volume by price chart, and vital supports up there fails, then the potential for volatility multiplies exponentially. The massive volume up top is going to be more inclined to follow price initally, perhaps in an orderly fashion, trying to get the best price they can, to try to get a breakeven exit first. Then chasing asks at resistance exists after that, then panic selling when major support fails, where panic hits the Street, where there are massive market orders hitting the bid to just “get out”. When that happens, that’s clearly volume driving price. Panic sets in, and more and more supports fail, and all of a sudden, VOLUME is leading to a crash or massive discount in the price of an issue….and there is true blood in the streets. Blood in the streets isn’t gonna happen when you have orderly price decline in a trend day.

It's a fascinating subject and I love thinking about the concept. Because if you can drill down on direction and get volume following your price bias, that's where you're gonna make a fortune. This is why I look at vol by price, because I think it's VERY relevant to the question of support and resistance, and directional price bias.

Yes, ultimately a truly bullish stock will ignore thin volume by price below its current high and impressively north-bound price. But let me assure you; when the bull disappears and profit-taking commences and sellers step up to the plate, volume by price is very much relevant to the question of support failure reaction, for if an issue is "thin" underneath, and top heavy, and support leaves, then price tends to fall fast toward those "thin" areas. That's a quiet and measured observation I've happily come to accept from the years I've followed vol by price. It's not a perfect rule, just a whisper that one should consider. Watch it for several months and I'm sure you'll see what I'm talking about.

Best to ya.

Gee; that's a long post! lol I might have to make that a feature of my Psychology Blog hehe

[New-born baby]

Newborn, allow me to cross-examine your analysis please. First, I know only a little about technical analysis, and so I'm in no way attempting to make anyone think I'm some T/A guru. While I do like looking at charts and patterns and trying to determine what recent price and volume trends are saying—if they're saying anything—my take is colored almost exclusively by what my own wits and intuition tell me, because I've done only marginal reading on the subject.

So now to my question. In this chart you point out on the price-by-volume overlay that there is very little volume at the neck line and reason that this indicates little support at that level. Now my own instinct is saying to me: The reason there is so little volume there is because the price shot right past it so fast there was hardly any time to accumulate a lot of volume there. But look at all the volume above that level! How can you discount all that buy interest?

If you look at a 2-year daily (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBD&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39785526698) on BBD, there was a clear head-and-shoulders pattern that formed between ealry Feb. and late March of '05, and it proceeded to blow it out of the water! Looking at that same chart, though, look at how the stock repeatedly finds support at the 50-day SMA. To me that support at the 50-day is pretty hard to ignore. As Bill O'Reilly likes to say, "Am I wrong?"

Rob,
I completely missed your post! I apologize for this. I in no way meant to ignore you. :(

Back to price by volume: support is where people have purchased the stock. When the price rises past the purchase point, and then retraces to that same point of purchase, people often add to their positions right there. Perhaps they had bought at $20, sold at $25, and now that the stock has retraced to $20, they buy it again. Now if the price by volume is thin, that shows that the support at that price level is thin, too. And if a stock is swamped with sellers, there are few buyers at this level. Thus the stock can fall through that price area rather quickly.

[jiesen]

I exited my MSFT position today for about what I paid minus dividends received over the couple years I've held it, but I sold it to my wife, so there's no transaction cost. :)

I needed funds for the bonus pick, and my wife wanted to buy what I wanted to sell, so why not?

I'm still bullish on MSFT long-term though, I'll just buy the shares again on the open market in 4-6 weeks, but 15-20% more of them.

[IIC]

Hey Spike...Could you please explain that again in one sentence or less?...IIC

[New-born baby]

I looked that chart over today. I have to say that is quite a long tail upstairs. It dropped from $25 to close at $23.50 or so. That's a big move for this stock. On the positive side, the RSI is so oversold that the chart almost has hit zero. the STOs suggest that you could enter here. Sooner or later Gates has to run out of sellers, I would think. And believe it or not the PnF thinks this stock has $39 potential. (That thing lies from time to time :D). Negatively I do not see a lot of growth potential in this stock. Jiesen knows what he is doing, so I will not criticize, but it is not a stock a want at this time.

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/2258/chart15ih.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

I don't doubt that MSFT will be at $39 sometime in the future, but I think it'll take awhile for the market to get over the major disappointment with the recent guidance revision. I believe I'll still be able to get it in the $20's for several months to come... but not forever. I could be wrong, and I'd hate to have lost these shares to the open market, but if my wife makes money off of my mistake, I've no problem with it.

[jiesen]

got out of my SSRI position (~2%) today at 24.0. Roughly doubled my money in this one over about 2 years. I hear Buffett's no longer in silver, so I guess it's probably not the value it used to be a few bucks ago.

[jiesen]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

[Lyehopper]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....
woah!.... Join the crowd dude. I had PARL crap out on me today too.

[New-born baby]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....

Who knows? You'll probably find out in a few days, but it actually fell $9.96. Dow Theory says you can add another $10 onto that for the bottom. Check out the option chain and sell a few $55 calls. If I recall, you bought the first load at $60, and now $50, so you have $55 in it. Most likely she dips down into the $30's, so a little extra income might make you feel a little better until she recovers.

this isn't the only stock where the news was good and the selling was strong. CCJ split 2:1, and when that news came out, $15 was lopped off of the price. It split at $70 ($35 per), and now had become about a $45 stock. Still don't know why the selloff on such good news.

[Lyehopper]

picked up another 1% of MFLX at 50.0 in AH today. don't know why the stock should drop $9 on this earnings report....
Nice read there "J"....

[jiesen]

thanks, Lye! we'll see how it plays out...

[New-born baby]

Nice read there "J"....

First you say you like the charts, and you are going to start believing them. Then you say this. Tisk, tisk.

[jiesen]

added 1% more to my MFLX position (now at 5% total). The price just keeps getting better and better! This is all I'll add, though, unless we do see Spike's $21 target someday...

Nothing has changed fundamentally, since the merger was announced, and I don't the market for Razrs will disappear so fast that this drop could be justified. MFLX is still a HUGE buy imo.

[jiesen]

I just finished my first (and likely only) marathon today (~4:25) so I'll stop being as busy and stressed out as I have been lately, and it'll hopefully leave me a lot more time for analyzing, trading, and all that good stuff. Ok, now let's make some money, shall we?

[peanuts]

I just finished my first (and likely only) marathon today (~4:25) so I'll stop being as busy and stressed out as I have been lately, and it'll hopefully leave me a lot more time for analyzing, trading, and all that good stuff. Ok, now let's make some money, shall we?

WOW!!! congrats... have a seat and check out some stocks

[jiesen]

I'm moving about a 2% position out of mutual funds into bonds today. I believe from this point, a 5% return is likely to do better than the overall market- at least in the short run. We could easily see another large correction (I'm pretty sure that one will occur before the NAS gets to 2500), and if we do see a 10% correction this year, I'll put the money back to work again. Until then, I'll be happy with my 5% on this chunk of change.

I'm buying back a 1% position of the fund I sold. The market has corrected about 5% from when I sold it in Jan, and my bond fund got a nice 1% bounce this past week, so I'm putting half of this bond position back into the equity market now, and plan to get the other half back in if the market drops another 5-10%. It'd be nice to catch the bottom, but I'll just be happy if my plan executes.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You're another step closer to world domination as XING goes nuts.
------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You're another step closer to world domination as XING goes nuts.
------------billyjoe

yes. but I'd be two steps closer if I'd actually loaded up again on XING last week...

[jiesen]

exited my position in AFT today at 1.47. Not interested in following this company anymore. There seems to be a revolving door in their executive office. I'm giving up and cutting my losses of ~60% on a <1% position.

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060707/laf047.html?.v=50

I still have a few shares of this little monkey. Let's see if it can jump 20x from here...

[IIC]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060707/laf047.html?.v=50

I still have a few shares of this little monkey. Let's see if it can jump 20x from here...

I hope they do...But things are not always as they first seem...best, Doug(IIC)

[jiesen]

I hope they do...But things are not always as they first seem...best, Doug(IIC)

Very true, Doug. If this makes it to $1, I'm selling. Bird in the hand, etc...

Hard to say with these guys what's true and what's not. According to the last few PR's early July was supposed to see 2 shares of CTBG spun off, and I'm still waiting for those... financials have been missing/late forever as well.

[jiesen]

well, GFCI did manage to triple today from about 0.1 to 0.3. Unfortunately that just puts me at about even for this one. Let's see if it can make it to 0.5 tomorrow. Around 0.6 I'll start think about selling... $1 and I'm out for sure.

[IIC]

well, GFCI did manage to triple today from about 0.1 to 0.3. Unfortunately that just puts me at about even for this one. Let's see if it can make it to 0.5 tomorrow. Around 0.6 I'll start think about selling... $1 and I'm out for sure.


'Ya know...when I first read that article I thought to myself..."Something doesn't sound right" ...But I didn't try to figure out what it was...But a triple in one day...not bad in anybody's book...I'd sell now...Best, Doug(IIC)

[jiesen]

Thanks, Doug. Always good to have another perspective on things, one that isn't clouded by owning the stock in question. You're probably right... if I wait too long the excitement from this bogus offer will die down, and it'll likely end up right back at 0.1 or lower.

I'll watch to see what it does in the morning, but I'll probably end up exiting this week, whether it hits my target or not.

[IIC]

Thanks, Doug. Always good to have another perspective on things, one that isn't clouded by owning the stock in question. You're probably right... if I wait too long the excitement from this bogus offer will die down, and it'll likely end up right back at 0.1 or lower.

I'll watch to see what it does in the morning, but I'll probably end up exiting this week, whether it hits my target or not.


I wish you the best J...Tough to tell what is REALLY going on here IMO...If I owned it I'd delve into more...But there are some pretty misleading PR's out there as I'm sure Dave and Jack could attest to...Good Luck...Doug

[jiesen]

closed out my GFCI position today. already regretting it... now watch it be a 10 bagger from here.:p

[jiesen]

call me stupid but I took a 1% position again in GFCI at .21

[jiesen]

I'm buying back a 1% position of the fund I sold. The market has corrected about 5% from when I sold it in Jan, and my bond fund got a nice 1% bounce this past week, so I'm putting half of this bond position back into the equity market now, and plan to get the other half back in if the market drops another 5-10%. It'd be nice to catch the bottom, but I'll just be happy if my plan executes.

The market has rallied recently, so I'm selling that 1% again for cash (gained about 8% on this btw), and I'll go back in when it's cooled off a bit. Can't complain about collecting 4.5%/year while I wait for it.

[jiesen]

Exited my BRR position today at 6.44. That's about 120% above where I bought it (2.90). I figure I've made enough on this one, and it's giving me a headache trying to justify holding it any longer. So screw it, I'm taking the money off the table while I can.:D

[Lyehopper]

Exited my BRR position today at 6.44. That's about 120% above where I bought it (2.90). I figure I've made enough on this one, and it's giving me a headache trying to justify holding it any longer. So screw it, I'm taking the money off the table while I can.:D
HUUUUGE!!!! Jiesen HUUUUGE!!!!

Might have sold too soon, it looks like it's just gettin' started good to me dude! jejeje

[peanuts]

Exited my BRR position today at 6.44. That's about 120% above where I bought it (2.90). I figure I've made enough on this one, and it's giving me a headache trying to justify holding it any longer. So screw it, I'm taking the money off the table while I can.:D

STUNNING!!!!! Great Trade, Jiesen, GREAT TRADE.

You are $$$HUGE$$$

[spikefader]

Ya nice trade J. Huge congrats!!!

TA justification to hold it but shoo, you don't need no stinkin' TA! hehe

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/1010/brrtasupportbb6.gif

[jiesen]

Thanks guys! Figures the TA would say hold it, but what the heck, I made money. Maybe I could have had more, but you know: a bird in the hand...

I want to find the next 120% gainer, rather than try to squeeze another 12% out of this one. What to buy next? That's the question now.

[jiesen]

looks like I got out in the nick o' time. probably would have been good to get out of a bunch of other stocks yesterday as well, but hey- that's life, right?

BTW, what the heck just happened to AXR? Is all this new oil going to make everything - including housing - cheaper? KBH, TOL, HOV, MTH, SPF all down big, too.

[Lyehopper]

looks like I got out in the nick o' time. probably would have been good to get out of a bunch of other stocks yesterday as well, but hey- that's life, right?
Hey Jiesen.... I'll bet you a buck that BRR will pop up again and move on higher shortly after that 5.95 gap fills. That would be my buy target $5.95, heck I might even pick me up some there.http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/images/icons/icon14.gif I think it'll go to $9.

[jiesen]

ahem... lets bump this to the top, shall we?

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,
Did you see the road sign on the way to AMLN?

"BLACK HOLE AHEAD."

Yup, AMLN looks for all the world to be a $31 stock. Really. Can I interest you in some puts?

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
Did you see the road sign on the way to AMLN?

"BLACK HOLE AHEAD."

Yup, AMLN looks for all the world to be a $31 stock. Really. Can I interest you in some puts?

nope. I'm perfectly happy owning the stock. It'll be worth $100+ in a year.

[Websman]

nope. I'm perfectly happy owning the stock. It'll be worth $100+ in a year.


I've got to buy some soon...jejejejeee

[New-born baby]

nope. I'm perfectly happy owning the stock. It'll be worth $100+ in a year.

I understand your viewpoint, although I don't subscribe to that kind of trading style. But I thought you might want to know what to expect. My question for you: what would be wrong if you held the stock and bought some puts for the extra cash? For example today I bought $40 OCT puts for $.75 per share. I noticed that I wasn't the only one; they did a huge volume today. Usually trades about 30 contracts per day; today it did nearly 2k. In any case the puts will pay for any drop below $40, and I'd say a drop below $40 could very well be imminent.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
If anyone would know about this stock it's you. NNBP :OTC , Nanobac Pharmaceuticals. There's a buzz about this stock in hospital labs in Ohio. Heck, their earnings are only -.01 . Market cap 40.6 million. This could be the one to make us all rich . When that happens I'm going to throw out my disposable razors after one use. Yee Ha !!!

------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
If anyone would know about this stock it's you. NNBP :OTC , Nanobac Pharmaceuticals. There's a buzz about this stock in hospital labs in Ohio. Heck, their earnings are only -.01 . Market cap 40.6 million. This could be the one to make us all rich . When that happens I'm going to throw out my disposable razors after one use. Yee Ha !!!

------------billyjoe

first glance: these guys have nothing but a hope and a dream.

P&D. Beware! I wouldn't touch this one.

I will look a little closer, though, and let you know if I change my mind.


edit:
How about investing in Schick instead?

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ENR&t=5y

[jiesen]

I understand your viewpoint, although I don't subscribe to that kind of trading style. But I thought you might want to know what to expect. My question for you: what would be wrong if you held the stock and bought some puts for the extra cash? For example today I bought $40 OCT puts for $.75 per share. I noticed that I wasn't the only one; they did a huge volume today. Usually trades about 30 contracts per day; today it did nearly 2k. In any case the puts will pay for any drop below $40, and I'd say a drop below $40 could very well be imminent.

Absolutely nothing wrong with it. I just don't have the bankroll, expertise, nor the time necessary to figure out a good option strategy for AMLN, or any other stock for that matter. I would love to be able to some day, though. So thanks for the tip- I will continue to learn about this stuff.

I don't believe AMLN will drop to $31. But if it does, I'll probably be happily buying more shares, not worrying about the price where I once could have sold it.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Are you familiar with SNMX biotech? Cramer is a big fan . Sees potential for 100's of millions in royalty deals with Coke and Campbell Soup.

-----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

yeah, a bit. SNMX is right down the road from me, and a pretty solid company. not like most biotechs, though. I see a lot less upside, but less downside as well for this one. probably be a good idea to wait for weakness to buy - definitely dont pick it up on a cramer pump! :cramersmiley: :eek: :cramersmiley: SNMX is not making anything life saving or super-profitable imo, but the products will sell and nobody will sue them for a bad flavor, so I think long-term this one could be a steady money-maker. I dont think SNMX is my cup of tea right now, but it could be interesting down the road... thanks for pointing it out, though!

[jiesen]

well, my limit order was hit today at a bit under $17 for half of my XING shares. I'm down to about 1.5% in XING now, from about 10% a couple years ago. I plan to hang on to the rest for a while, and am glad to have mostly gotten out with my skin intact on this one- what a wild ride it's been!

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
Sorry to keep bothering you but all these companies seem to be from your neck of the woods. Have you ever had dealings with SAIC ? Impressive company from what information I've gleaned. Saw that they started in La Jolla and it made me think of you and LJPC. Put a limit order in for 16.95 and doesn't appear that it will fill. However did get some for 17.75. The employee/owners are going to do very well here getting a 15.00/ share special dividend and who knows how many shares they'll continue to hold. If you divide the total special div, by #employees = $57,000 each.

------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
Sorry to keep bothering you but all these companies seem to be from your neck of the woods. Have you ever had dealings with SAIC ? Impressive company from what information I've gleaned. Saw that they started in La Jolla and it made me think of you and LJPC. Put a limit order in for 16.95 and doesn't appear that it will fill. However did get some for 17.75. The employee/owners are going to do very well here getting a 15.00/ share special dividend and who knows how many shares they'll continue to hold. If you divide the total special div, by #employees = $57,000 each.

------------billyjoe

Not at all, billyjoe! Im only sorry that I cant provide the responses your questions deserve at the moment... vacation is being very good to me now. Im glad not to be at work now, especially given the latest development at LJP. (Ill expand a bit more on that after my vacation is over and I catch up on some things...like the POTW etc)

But yeah, I do have a few friends at SAIC right now, and although I havent dealt with them (completely different industry) I did apply for a job there once. I think this could turn out to be a fantastic investment.　they sure do know how to make money. Hopefully that doesnt change after they turn into a public company. I would probably want to see a few quarters worth of statements and earnings trends before putting my money in SAI, but the ipo is always an exciting and tempting place to get in, eh? ;)

$57k/employee is quite a lot, isnt it? Though in actuality, they probably get more like $20k-30k of that for the rank and file, where the bigwigs will get millions each. just the way it works, i think. at any rate, thats still a lot of money flowing into the san diego area. SD real estate is likely to get a boost from that as thousands of SAIC employees are finally ready to make their down-payments just as the market for housing has softened...

[Websman]

So, you're still in Osaka Jeisen? :) Cool!

I got back home yesterday and have to go to work first thing Monday morning. :(
I'm thinking of going to London or Switzerland for a week in March though. :)

[jiesen]

So, you're still in Osaka Jeisen? :) Cool!

I got back home yesterday and have to go to work first thing Monday morning. :(
I'm thinking of going to London or Switzerland for a week in March though. :)

yep. still here! im here till friday, then back to work the next monday. so the POTW cumulative results will be a week late or so... but oh well, thats how it goes, eh? sorry your vacation is over already- but glad mine's not!

went mountain hiking yesterday, had an awesome time!

Europe will be great, Im also planning on a trip to Spain, Switzerland, maybe Prague in a year or so, whenever I can get the time free to go. London is excellent for a trip- never been to Switzerland, though.

[jiesen]

well, I'm back at work... sucks with the jet lag, but I did notice the market is floating into the sky. So I further reduced my market exposure here, by selling off about a 1.5% position in an equity fund.

[Websman]

well, I'm back at work... sucks with the jet lag, but I did notice the market is floating into the sky. So I further reduced my market exposure here, by selling off about a 1.5% position in an equity fund.

Mushi mushi!
Welcome back to the USA Grasshopper!

[jiesen]

Thanks, Webs! It's good to be back, though I am wishing I could still be on vacation.... it was really nice not to have to think about work for so long.

[jiesen]

I will most likely be making a significant investment in GPRO next week... stay tuned for details (but please comment on this, I want to hear your opinions):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GPRO&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

[jiesen]

Just started my second week at the new job today (I now work for Gen-Probe) and have deposited my last shares of LJPC bought through the employee program- bringing my total exposure to LJPC to about 20%. I think this is the last purchase I'll be making for a while of LJPC. Of course, I will be buying stock (and receiving options) in my new employer now, and so I should get a better balance in my portfolio eventually, and not need to sell any stock to do it. I still think LJPC will be a 10-bagger eventually, just a matter of whether it gets to $1 or $30 first in the next 3 years. It'll depend totally on the results of the ongoing trial though, which breaks down like this: (this is great, I finally get to talk about my ex-employer)

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061106/lam053.html?.v=69

82 patients enrolled so far
27 were enrolled about a month ago
65 sites operating (enrolling patients)

At this rate (about 45-50 patients/month) it would take 10-11 months to get the remaining ~500 patients enrolled, but by increasing the # of sites to 120, they should shorten this to 6-8 months, depending on how fast they can do that. Since the trial ends one year after the last patient is in, that means 18-20 months until completion, and maybe another 3-6 months before results are known.

Two things have to happen in order for this stock to take off:
1) the trial has to run to completion- this means they will need to raise money next year (significant dilution here)
2) the results must be good

I put #1 as a better than 50/50 bet, and #2 (assuming #1) about a 50/50. So that's a better than 25% chance of a big payoff. Of course, there's a good chance of failure, too, and if #1 or #2 don't work out, the stock will be toast. So if you have a few bucks you want to throw on a risky biotech for 2+ years, this could be a fun long-term play for you.

Milestones to look for:
1) Funds raised for remainder of trial (needs to be within 1 year)
2) Trial completed (should be within 2 years)
3) FDA approval (could be in about 4 years)

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
GPRO is sure bigger than LJPC. Don't get lost in the crowd. I see GPRO is rated an excellent place to work and their stock looks good too. Good luck in the new job.

-----------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Thanks, Billyjoe. I will try not to get lost in the crowd... but it is definitely a more secure job than my previous one. Benefits are excellent as well. I would expect the stock to double within 4-5 years. If this happens, the options they have given me would be worth around 50% of my portfolio as it stands now. GPRO got dinged on the last earnings report for giving out too many options... I don't care, though, as I'm on the receiving end of it! Besides, lots of options (plus rising stock price) = happy employees.

[jiesen]

call me stupid but I took a 1% position again in GFCI at .21

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

[peanuts]

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

ouch, sorry to hear this.

I have one OTCBB that I like to cheer for: UCPJ I try to keep OTCBB and Pinksheet listings out of my portfolio.

AMLN looks good today. Maybe we'll get a nice bottom right here...

One of these days, you will rule the world. Probably the same day you stop buying pinky's :o

[Websman]

ouch, sorry to hear this.

I have one OTCBB that I like to cheer for: UCPJ I try to keep OTCBB and Pinksheet listings out of my portfolio.

AMLN looks good today. Maybe we'll get a nice bottom right here...

One of these days, you will rule the world. Probably the same day you stop buying pinky's :o

I'm still holding my UCPJ shares...jejeje

Go UCPJ!!!

[ParkTwain]

Mr Jiesen, since you work in the bio-pharm sector, could you take a look at this week's news re: HTI (another San Diego-based company) and give us your opinion.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061205/nytu166.html?.v=69

[jiesen]

Mr Jiesen, since you work in the bio-pharm sector, could you take a look at this week's news re: HTI (another San Diego-based company) and give us your opinion.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/061205/nytu166.html?.v=69

My opinion: FANTASTIC!

This is a great deal for HTI. They're getting between 20M and 100M from Roche to develop their delivery technology (and possibly a whole lot more, if it actually works), as well as a 5% equity purchase. This gives them an enormous benefit in having that partner to back them up along the way. Of course a lot of that is reflected in the jump in price from $2 to $6, but the price is still climbing, and it may be worth a stab at riding it up to the next level (8 or 10?). I don't think I'd put any long-term investment in HTI just based on this PR, but definitely wish I'd heard about this earlier, like Wednesday... I still might look at this as a potential play for next week. Thanks for bringing it to my attention, Park!

The company itself seems a bit on the light side- just 37 people according to Yahoo... I bet that's changed or will change shortly with the new money coming in. For a 40 person company there do seem to be quite a few of them making some decent pocket change (at least 4 at 200k+ listed):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HTI

But at least they appear to be financially sound, only losing a couple million or so each quarter in cash, with about $20M left in the bank. As long as they keep the stock price up, they should be able to keep the lights on for a long time- and the Roche deal should be just the ticket for them.

[ParkTwain]

Mr. Jayy-yyy, I'm looking at HTI todayyyy-yyy. What do I have to do around here to get the recs.

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
I don't know if you're familiar with Beckman Coulter. My wife's hospital lab just bought a piece of diagnostic equipment from them for 1 million dollars and B/C got the lab a bucket of KFC . I told her it should have been worth at least 2 buckets.

------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Mr. Jayy-yyy, I'm looking at HTI todayyyy-yyy. What do I have to do around here to get the recs.

Mad props to you, Park! I did notice your HTI up 10% or so in a day, and am sure kicking myself for wasting my time in pinkyland while a real pick like this one goes whizzing by yet again...

damn, when am I going to learn?

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
I don't know if you're familiar with Beckman Coulter. My wife's hospital lab just bought a piece of diagnostic equipment from them for 1 million dollars and B/C got the lab a bucket of KFC . I told her it should have been worth at least 2 buckets.

------------billyjoe

Yeah, the cheap bastards! Of course I'm familiar with them... I've bought my share of pH meters and maybe a UV/Vis from them in my past equipment-intensive days.

Beckman also bought up the original SD biotech- Hybritech- after it fell apart. Here's an interesting (albeit old) article mentioning this, where almost all of my employers for the past 8 years are mentioned:

http://www.sandiegometro.com/1999/apr/biotech.html

[billyjoe]

I think old man Beckman invented the ph meter and lived to be almost 100.

--------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Mr. Jayy-yyy, I'm looking at HTI todayyyy-yyy. What do I have to do around here to get the recs.

Park,
What do you mean by recs?

[ParkTwain]

Park,
What do you mean by recs?

"recommendations" or kudos or "feeling the love"

[riverbabe]

Jiesen,
I don't know if you're familiar with Beckman Coulter. My wife's hospital lab just bought a piece of diagnostic equipment from them for 1 million dollars and B/C got the lab a bucket of KFC . I told her it should have been worth at least 2 buckets.

------------billyjoe

Oh my God, does that bring back memories! Way back, when I was a beginning med tech, our hematology lab had the first Coulter counter model to count RBC. Everything else we did by hand, including all the wet chemistry. There now, I've gone and really dated myself! Does your wife remember those good old days?

[billyjoe]

River,
She's been a Med Tech since 1976 I think . We met in '81. She worked at Toledo Riverside for 6 years.

----------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

River,
She's been a Med Tech since 1976 I think . We met in '81. She worked at Toledo Riverside for 6 years.

----------billyjoe
Everything was automated by then, with round-the-clock staff. No more on-call emergency cab rides in the middle of the night from home to the hospital. I moved on in 1974 to bigger and better things, except for a 3-year consulting contract in 1981-83 to supervise an immunology lab and bring the blood bank at a Cleveland hospital up to AABB standards. Apologies to Jiesen. Must get back to STOCKS! River :o

[jiesen]

Everything was automated by then, with round-the-clock staff. No more on-call emergency cab rides in the middle of the night from home to the hospital. I moved on in 1974 to bigger and better things, except for a 3-year consulting contract in 1981-83 to supervise an immunology lab and bring the blood bank at a Cleveland hospital up to AABB standards. Apologies to Jiesen. Must get back to STOCKS! River :o

No worries, River! With discussion being relatively tame on my thread as of late (my fault for being busy), the OT posts are more than welcome here, too. Just so long as it doesn't head towards religion or politics, I'm happy!

[billyjoe]

River and Jiesen,
Have either of you ever owned BEC? It's been between 50-60 all year and I see earnings growth is down 51%

-----------billyjoe

[riverbabe]

River and Jiesen,
Have either of you ever owned BEC? It's been between 50-60 all year and I see earnings growth is down 51%

-----------billyjoe
Billyjoe, BEC has never popped up on my screens, and I have never owned it. It seems to be growing by acquisitions, not organic. I usually stay away from stocks that have just issued more debt, even though they are using some for stock buyback. Looks like there has been some heavy accumulation in the last week, but overall I agree it has been in a trading range for a long time. I probably personally wouldn't buy it now, but it's worth keeping an eye on. River

[jiesen]

never owned it myself either... and probably won't.

[jiesen]

I will most likely be making a significant investment in GPRO next week... stay tuned for details (but please comment on this, I want to hear your opinions):

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GPRO&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Here are the latest analyst reports for GPRO in case anyone is interested...

Piper Jaffray:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/467325/

Bank of America:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/9f3256/

Merrill Lynch:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/382652/

Lehman Bros:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/4dce5a/

[jiesen]

that was stupid after all, but I'm gonna make it all back by buying another 1% today at 0.057 on a 5M share buyback announcement. just you watch. After this I'm swearing off the pinks forever... (yeah right)

Just sold these shares for 0.067 today. That's a one penny gain (or 17.5%). Not enough to make up for my original position, which is underwater from 0.21, but enough to make me glad I took the extra plunge into GFCI.

Never again, though- that was more than enough pinky excitement for me!

[peanuts]

Just sold these shares for 0.067 today. That's a one penny gain (or 17.5%). Not enough to make up for my original position, which is underwater from 0.21, but enough to make me glad I took the extra plunge into GFCI.

Never again, though- that was more than enough pinky excitement for me!

but, but, but... I've got this great little Florida scuba company that you would just love.... :cool:

[Tatnic]

River and Jiesen,
Have either of you ever owned BEC? It's been between 50-60 all year and I see earnings growth is down 51%

-----------billyjoe

one youse guys might like or at least put on your radar is TMO. Its way over done at these levels, but I know alot of you guys here like to chase these high fliers.

[jiesen]

but, but, but... I've got this great little Florida scuba company that you would just love.... :cool:

you know, I just might swing by it after I'm through checking out some of the hot real estate prospects over there... I hear wetlands are all the rage!

[riverbabe]

one youse guys might like or at least put on your radar is TMO. Its way over done at these levels, but I know alot of you guys here like to chase these high fliers.

Wow! Fisher Scientific was bought in November? Did not know! Now, that's always been a great company! Will definitely keep this one on my radar. I also have a family and professional connection to FS. Agree it's way high now. Will do some DD and watch the chart for a technical entry if the DD is positive. Thank you Tatnic! Riverbabe

[Tatnic]

Wow! Fisher Scientific was bought in November? Did not know!

TMO is another great Massachussetts company..one thing they sell alot of is bird flu test kits, which may explain the strong chart, in part.

[jiesen]

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BIO&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=a,wat,bdx

I've always liked Bio-rad, but never bought it. :regrets:

of all the companies making money off of my lab activities, though, I'd have to say Sigma-Aldrich tops the list:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SIAL&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=SIAL&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=bio

hmm, now exactly why didn't I ever buy these again??? I sure gave out some good advice a year ago... why didn't I just listen to it?

Sometimes the best ideas are just staring you right in the face, but you push them out of the way so you can focus on the shiny things just out of reach.

[jiesen]

A year later, and it's time to reflect on my portfolio again, to see how it's been working out (or not). This year has not been very spectacular for me. Though I'm not up at all, I'm not down much either (down perhaps 5% overall). Both of my major holdings this year (XING and LJPC) took major hits, and I all but closed out my XING near its low at around $6. I've continued to buy LJPC(D) automatically (as I do bonds and mutual funds) through my retirement plan (guess where I work) so while it's down over 50% for the year, most of what I've bought this year is still worth 15% more than I paid for it (I get a 15% discount to market). While the returns from these two positions alone would be enough to make me cry, these poor returns were nearly balanced out by decent returns from the rest of my portfolio: $$MM stocks returned around 15-20%, mutual funds ranged from about 6-12% and cash/bonds paid 2-4%. So, my portfolio ended up looking much like it did last year, with:

(approximately)
25% cash&bonds
25% mutual funds
25% $$MM stocks
25% other stocks
other stocks include:
15% in LJPC
1-2% each in XING MSFT AMLN GFCI.PK SSRI
<1% in DRUG.OB MSPD AFT

Also, in the 25% $$MM stocks, I still count my overweight positions in PRX BEL OFG and NUS (GGI was sold, as was RRGB) and still own a small position in WSB. I have also picked up small positions in ARLP and ACRG.OB (a $$MM top 5 stock) along the way, and still expect more than 100% out of each of those.

The year flew by, and it seems I've sort of been running in place- at least the results would indicate so. Although last year I ended up down a bit, I did make that back up, and am now about even from where I was two years ago (maybe up 1% or so) in overall investment performance. I owe the upside mostly to a rising market, and the decent interest rate (of about 4%) my cash/bond position is paying. The cash and mutual funds have outperformed my individual stocks as a whole, and as a result of that, and the fact that I've added more to cash than my other investments, my overall portfolio now looks like this:

~30% cash&bonds
~25% mutual funds
~25% $$MM stocks
~20% other stocks
other stocks include:
~15% LJPC, 1-2% each in XING and AMLN. <1% each in DRUG.OB, GFCI.PK, and MSPD.

I'm planning to put maybe 5-10% cash position to work back in stocks and funds, but hopefully at a better valuation than the market offers right now. Also, my position in $$MM stocks now includes quite a few stocks which are no longer held in the actual $$MM port. They amount to about a 5% position in (from biggest to smallest position) PRX, WSB, CBK, ARLP, and BEVFF.PK. So I guess I should include these in the "other" group going forward.

Owning $$MM stocks has benefitted my portfolio, and by $$MM's analysis his stocks have done better than the 15% the S&P has returned. While mine include a few others, I'll assume that at least a basic 20% of my port has returned about 15%. My mutual funds have also returned around the 15% that the market has risen. Here are my two largest fund holdings (each is about 5-6% of my port) in comparison to the index:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEICX&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=hwlcx,%5EGSPC

Which leaves the "other stocks" responsible for the overall mediocre performance- mainly my large position in LJPC, which has dropped from about $4 to $3 this year. I wouldn't have minded that as much, though, had I just held onto my 10% XING position through the trying times, but that's over and done with now. Dabbling in the pinks and .OB stocks (GFCI and DRUG.OB) has hurt me this year, and the stellar performance of AMLN in 2005 was not to be found in 2006, so pretty much all of my own picks in my port are in the toilet right now. But I do remain optimistic that in the end I will be vindicated in most, if not all, of these positions.

Another pattern I've noticed from looking back, is that all of the positions I sold this year have turned out to be sold too soon... check this out:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XING&t=1y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=ssri,aft

So maybe a little more patience is required for success. Anyway, I'll stick my nose back to the grindstone now... Happy New Year everyone!

[jiesen]

One other thing I should add is that I now have a position in GPRO options which, due to a recent 5% rise in GPRO, would represent about a 4% position for me, if it were fully vested (this will happen over 4 years, though, so it's not necessarily appropriate to include as part of the port yet).

Don't count your chickens until they hatch, right? My LJPC options (from up to $33) will all expire this month worthless, with the exception of a few pennies on the few options I have under $3.

[Websman]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

[IIC]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

Geez...Nothing has traded yet this year and it already sucks???...Not a good sign for the VTP Webs

[Websman]

Geez...Nothing has traded yet this year and it already sucks???...Not a good sign for the VTP Webs

Always the smart ***... But the Vulcans still like you! :)

[jiesen]

Don't give up Jiesen. The Vulcan portfolio had a 32% gain last year, but this year sucked....no big losses, but real gains either.

2007 will be huge though. Stick around you'll see....

Thanks for the encouraging words, Webs. No, my underperformance is not going to keep me down for long. I am only learning to be better, and in time hope to trounce even your HUGE 32% gain one of these days.

If it seems that I've defocused from the market lately, that's because I have. I believe that now is not the right time to be putting too much cash into the market, and I'm averse to (and uneducated in the art of) shorting, so I'm trying to do more study into the fundamentals of companies I might choose to buy when the time is right (and price is low).

[peanuts]

Thanks for the encouraging words, Webs. No, my underperformance is not going to keep me down for long. I am only learning to be better, and in time hope to trounce even your HUGE 32% gain one of these days.

If it seems that I've defocused from the market lately, that's because I have. I believe that now is not the right time to be putting too much cash into the market, and I'm averse to (and uneducated in the art of) shorting, so I'm trying to do more study into the fundamentals of companies I might choose to buy when the time is right (and price is low).

I began to make short plays last year. All but 1 were profitable. I think the fact of my inexperience and constant babysitting of the position helped me to make a profit. I was so scared to be wrong, that the moment that I thought I was too right, I closed the position. I could have made even more on some of those positions.

[jiesen]

My first short was CNXT at 128. As amazingly good of a call it was, I still managed to lose money, when I covered in a panic at 132. (I didn't want to lose money, either!)

Imagine the coulda should woulda I felt when CNXT made it to sub-$1 territory.

[stenzrob]

I began to make short plays last year. All but 1 were profitable. I think the fact of my inexperience and constant babysitting of the position helped me to make a profit. I was so scared to be wrong, that the moment that I thought I was too right, I closed the position. I could have made even more on some of those positions.
peanuts, Your statement here, about being so scared to be wrong that you closed the position when you thought you were too right, is a classic quotable quote. This attitude doesn't apply only to short positions, either. I have made some great stock picks (long) and sold WAY before they peaked for about the same reasons.

regards ... stenz

[Websman]

peanuts, Your statement here, about being so scared to be wrong that you closed the position when you thought you were too right, is a classic quotable quote. This attitude doesn't apply only to short positions, either. I have made some great stock picks (long) and sold WAY before they peaked for about the same reasons.

regards ... stenz


Good to hear from you Stenz!

[stenzrob]

Good to hear from you Stenz!
Thanks webs - unlike Dave, when I get tired of it all, I just leave without resigning. Saves a lot of trouble signing up again when I come back !

[jiesen]

Welcome back, Stenz! Nice to see you hanging out here again!

[jiesen]

added to my LJPC position today at 3.06. Together with the options I'm exercising at the end of this month (strike price of 2.2-2.4) I'm adding approximately 1% of my port at about $2.8/shr. These were use-it-or-lose-it options, so I might as well.

[jiesen]

added another 1% today to my LJPC position. I think that's going to be enough for me at this price. If it gets down to $2.5 or so I might pick up some more again, though.

[jiesen]

I sold the last of my XING today (about a 2% position) at $18. Finally done with this one now. Farewell, XING, old buddy!

[jiesen]

Here are the latest analyst reports for GPRO in case anyone is interested...

Piper Jaffray:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/467325/

Bank of America:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/9f3256/

Merrill Lynch:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/382652/

Lehman Bros:
http://www.filefactory.com/file/4dce5a/

http://www.sharebigfile.com/file/85946/analystnotes-zip.html

Here are the latest analyst reports for GPRO. Looks like the older ones are no longer hosted though.

[jiesen]

Took a 2% position in NFI today, looking for a quick 20-30% return out of this one. It's just gotta be oversold right now. There's still about $6 in dividends to be paid from 2006 in the share price right now, and the company has to be worth at least $4 or $5 after that, even with no profits until 2011... right? I mean, c'mon, BV is $15!

If there isn't any dead-cat bounce though, I'll probably cut it loose again for $9.5 or so before it bleeds me for too much. There could always be more bad news around the corner.

[jiesen]

just sunk another 2% into this sucker. hopefully I don't end up getting hosed on this one. I already missed my stop-out point, so I'm going to make up for it by doubling up. Not always a wise move, I know... c'mon 9.5! get me outta this jam!

[jiesen]

just sunk another 2% into this sucker. hopefully I don't end up getting hosed on this one. I already missed my stop-out point, so I'm going to make up for it by doubling up. Not always a wise move, I know... c'mon 9.5! get me outta this jam!

I'm beginning to see that the subprime mortgage sector is like a coal mine with a gas leak, and I just bought the canary as it started to look a bit tepid. Probably wasn't such a good idea to buy another one.

[jiesen]

http://www.sharebigfile.com/file/85946/analystnotes-zip.html

Here are the latest analyst reports for GPRO. Looks like the older ones are no longer hosted though.

At least my employer had some good news today:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b99F53119-C997-47F9-A3B6-C7965D563D72%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Maybe my stock options will go back in the money again this month...

[IIC]

At least my employer had some good news today:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b99F53119-C997-47F9-A3B6-C7965D563D72%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Maybe my stock options will go back in the money again this month...

Next time I get West Nile Virus I'll give you a call...Doug

[jiesen]

Next time I get West Nile Virus I'll give you a call...Doug

just give me 1cc of your blood, and in under 8 hours I can tell you whether you've got it. (or AIDS/HCV/HBV for that matter)

[IIC]

just give me 1cc of your blood, and in under 8 hours I can tell you whether you've got it. (or AIDS/HCV/HBV for that matter)



I bet you are FUN at parties

[jiesen]

I'm beginning to see that the subprime mortgage sector is like a coal mine with a gas leak, and I just bought the canary as it started to look a bit tepid. Probably wasn't such a good idea to buy another one.

Not today! I just doubled up on NFI to a 5% position, at 5.07. Please wish me luck...

[billyjoe]

Jiesen,
You and Mrs. billyjoe might get along well. The first thing she notices about a person is their veins. It gives me the creeps. Ironically, most phlebotomists regard me as not drawable. They were close to putting an IV in my neck which almost put me in shock, just the thougfht of it.

---------------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Jiesen,
You and Mrs. billyjoe might get along well. The first thing she notices about a person is their veins. It gives me the creeps. Ironically, most phlebotomists regard me as not drawable. They were close to putting an IV in my neck which almost put me in shock, just the thougfht of it.

---------------billyjoe

Hey Billyjoe,

Well, notice I said "give me 1cc of your blood" instead of "let me take" it. I'm as good as any lab tech with a pipet, but I'm no phlebotomist, and the thought of sticking a needle in someone else gives me the creeps, too. Anyway, I'm sure Mrs. Billyjoe and I would get along just fine, nonetheless!

[jiesen]

Not today! I just doubled up on NFI to a 5% position, at 5.07. Please wish me luck...

What was I smoking this morining??!? Sometimes I need to just step away from the computer, nice and slow...

[IIC]

Hey Billyjoe,

Well, notice I said "give me 1cc of your blood" instead of "let me take" it. I'm as good as any lab tech with a pipet, but I'm no phlebotomist, and the thought of sticking a needle in someone else gives me the creeps, too. Anyway, I'm sure Mrs. Billyjoe and I would get along just fine, nonetheless!

I hate to be one to start rumors...But it sounds to me like J and Mrs. BJ may be running off to Antigua or somewhere???

[jiesen]

I hate to be one to start rumors...But it sounds to me like J and Mrs. BJ may be running off to Antigua or somewhere???

Nah, man. Too many mosquitos there. I'd be afraid of catching the West Nile Virus. :p

[billyjoe]

The Mrs. did recently have a chance to go to the Los Angeles area as the guest of a pharmaceutical company. I could have trailed along but didn't want to spend my time watching Jerry Springer in a hotel room , while she dined on lobster and dom perignon with the hoy falloi (sp.?).

--------billyjoe

[jiesen]

Finally! Some good news out of La Jolla. Still a ways to go for approval, but this definitely says that they are on the right track now.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/lath046.html?.v=88

La Jolla Pharmaceutical Announces Positive Interim Antibody Results From Riquent(R) Lupus Phase 3 Trial
Thursday March 8, 7:00 am ET
Data Support Ability of Higher Doses to Further Reduce Antibodies to Double-Stranded DNA


SAN DIEGO, March 8 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company (Nasdaq: LJPC (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ljpc&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=ljpc)) today announced positive interim antibody results from its ongoing double-blind, placebo-controlled randomized Phase 3 trial of Riquent® (abetimus sodium), its drug candidate for systemic lupus erythematosus ("lupus" or "SLE"). Analyses of interim antibody data indicate that patients treated with 900 mg or 300 mg per week doses of Riquent had greater reductions in antibodies to double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) than patients treated with 100 mg per week or placebo. The results showed a significant dose response when comparing all Riquent-treated patients to placebo-treated patients (p < 0.0001), and each Riquent dose group to the placebo dose group (p < 0.0015 for 100 mg, p < 0.0001 for 300 mg and 900 mg).

We are very excited by these results. The higher the dose, the greater the reduction in antibodies to dsDNA, and the relative magnitude of these reductions is greater than we have seen in previous studies, which used lower doses of Riquent. Higher doses also appear to result in a larger percentage of patients having greater and more consistent antibody reductions over time," said Deirdre Y. Gillespie, M.D., President and CEO of La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company. "In addition, preliminary assessment of the data indicates that Riquent is being as well tolerated at all doses in the ongoing Phase 3 study as in our previous studies. We believe that the greater reductions in antibodies to dsDNA observed with these higher doses of Riquent imply a greater probability of obtaining positive clinical results from the Phase 3 trial."

"These data definitely show an increased biological effect. This will improve the likelihood of detecting clinical effects of the treatment," said Joan Merrill, M.D. of the Oklahoma Medical Research Foundation. "Furthermore," said Jill Buyon, M.D., Professor of Medicine at New York University School of Medicine, "these are highly encouraging data which should attract attention from the lupus community since a reduction in antibodies to dsDNA is a biomarker we associate with clinical improvement."


Dose Dependent Antibody Reduction
The analyses assessed the impact of treatment with Riquent on reducing antibodies to dsDNA in 101 patients by measuring the percent of antibody reduction from baseline compared with placebo following weekly treatment with 100 mg, 300 mg or 900 mg of Riquent or placebo. All demographics and baseline characteristics were comparable across dosing groups and there were 16 to 30 patients per treatment group.


Following eight weeks of treatment, the median percent reduction in antibodies to dsDNA for Riquent-treated patients compared with placebo-treated patients was 36% (100 mg), 48% (300 mg), and 66% (900 mg). Antibody reduction for each dose group was significantly better than placebo. Approximately three times as many patients treated with 900 mg of Riquent (38%) had at least a 50% or greater antibody reduction at week 8 compared with patients treated with 100 mg (13%). Patients reached their maximum reduction after four weeks of treatment at which time separation between doses was also seen.


Consistent Antibody Reductions
Published data from earlier La Jolla studies indicated that maintaining antibody reductions over time in individual patients was associated with a significantly reduced renal flare rate. The current data indicate that the higher the Riquent dose, the greater the consistency of response and the greater the magnitude of this response. While more than twice as many 900 mg-treated patients (58%) as 100 mg-treated patients (25%) had a consistent 20% reduction, six times as many 900 mg-treated patients (39%) had a consistent 40% reduction, compared with 100 mg-treated patients (6%). Twice as many patients on 900 mg as 300 mg had a consistent 50% reduction, but no patients on 100 mg or placebo achieved this level of consistent reduction. A consistent reduction is defined as a patient whose percent antibody reduction exceeded a specified level at weeks 4, 6 and 8.


Tolerability
To date, Riquent has been well tolerated in the ongoing Phase 3 study. The adverse event profile for all patients in the study, including those treated with the 300 mg and 900 mg doses, does not appear to differ from that seen in previous studies where 100 mg of Riquent was the treatment dose.


Conference Call
The Company will host a conference call on Thursday, March 8, 2007 at 8:00 a.m. Pacific Time/11:00 a.m. Eastern Time. If you would like to listen to the conference call, please visit La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company's website at www.ljpc.com (http://www.ljpc.com/).


An archived version of the conference call will be available the day of the call at the Company's website www.ljpc.com (http://www.ljpc.com/) and will be archived for several weeks. In addition, a replay of the conference call can also be accessed for one week by dialing (888) 286-8010 (US) or (617) 801-6888 (International). The passcode for the replay is 33112152.
These data will be presented at the 8th International Congress on SLE in Shanghai in May 2007.


Phase 3 Study Design
The Phase 3 study is designed to assess the ability of Riquent treatment to prevent or delay the time to renal flare in lupus patients with a history of renal disease and with antibodies to dsDNA. A lupus renal flare is a potentially life-threatening increase in inflammation targeting the kidney. A renal flare often requires treatment with immunosuppressive agents which can have severe side effects.


The global study is expected to enroll approximately 730 patients who will be treated weekly with Riquent or placebo. Equal numbers of patients will be treated with 300 mg per week, 900 mg per week or placebo for 12 months. Patient enrollment in this international study recommenced in the third quarter of 2006 and completion of enrollment is targeted for around the end of 2007.


About Riquent
Riquent is being developed to specifically treat lupus renal disease by preventing or delaying renal flares, a leading cause of sickness and death in lupus patients. Riquent has been well tolerated in all 13 clinical trials, with no serious Riquent-related side effects identified to date. Riquent's only known biological activity is the reduction of circulating levels of anti- dsDNA antibodies. Increases in these antibodies are associated with an increased risk of renal flare. Although clinical benefit has not yet been proven, Riquent treatment has significantly reduced these antibody levels in all clinical trials where they were measured.
About Lupus


Lupus is a chronic, potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease. About 90% of lupus patients are female, and many are diagnosed with the disease during their childbearing years. Approximately 50% of lupus patients have renal disease, which can lead to irreversible renal damage, renal failure and the need for dialysis, and is a leading cause of death in lupus patients. Latinos, African Americans and Asians face an increased risk of serious renal disease associated with lupus. The current standard of care for lupus renal disease often involves treatment with high doses of corticosteroids and immunosuppressive drugs that can cause severe side effects including diabetes, hypertension and sterility, and may leave patients vulnerable to opportunistic infections. To date, no lupus specific drug has been approved in the U.S.


La Jolla Pharmaceutical Company is dedicated to improving and preserving human life by developing innovative pharmaceutical products. The Company's leading product in development is Riquent. The Company has also developed small molecules to treat various other autoimmune and inflammatory conditions. The Company's common stock is traded on The NASDAQ Global Market under the symbol LJPC. More information about the Company is available on its Web site: http://www.ljpc.com (http://www.ljpc.com/).

[riverbabe]

Wow, Jiesen, this is HUGE!!!

See U.S. Patent No. 7,081,242

http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PALL&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.htm&r=1&f=G&l=50&s1=7081242.PN.&OS=PN/7081242&RS=PN/7081242

and U.S. Patent Application Publication No. 2006/0229270

http://appft1.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?TERM1=20060229270&Sect1=PTO1&Sect2=HITOFF&d=PG01&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsrchnum.html&r=0&f=S&l=50

Are you involved with La Jolla Pharmaceutical?

[jiesen]

I worked there for 4 years developing and qualifying analytical methods, but now my only involvement with LJP is as a stockholder. Yes indeed, this is HUGE news, especially for me!

(and don't forget, you heard it here first!)

[riverbabe]

I worked there for 4 years developing and qualifying analytical methods, but now my only involvement with LJP is as a stockholder. Yes indeed, this is HUGE news, especially for me!

(and don't forget, you heard it here first!)


Hope you make a ton of money on it. I'm going to pay attention to it too.

[jiesen]

Hope you make a ton of money on it. I'm going to pay attention to it too.

Thanks River! And for the sake of the millions of Lupus patients around the world, I hope I make a ton of money on it also.

[stenzrob]

WOW
(news well received)

[jiesen]

Not today! I just doubled up on NFI to a 5% position, at 5.07. Please wish me luck...

Well, as it turns out this one worked well for me, since I got a 20% return out of it. Of course, I'm still down 25% or so on the other 3%, but at least I'm not so heavily exposed to NFI anymore...

[Websman]

Well, as it turns out this one worked well for me, sice I got a 20% return out of it. Of course, I'm still down 25% or so on the other 3%, but at least I'm not so heavily exposed to NFI anymore...
Congrats! I wish I would have bought some yesterday...

[jiesen]

Congrats! I wish I would have bought some yesterday...

I wish I had had the balls to buy more when I saw it trading at 3.3!

[Websman]

I wish I had had the balls to buy more when I saw it trading at 3.3!

I wish I would have had the balls to buy at all. LOL

[jiesen]

and took the cue from Spike's POTW entry to buy some NEXC on a pure daytrade/TA joyride. I put 2% in at 10.3, and will sell this today for either a 3% loss or a 10% gain. That's the plan, anyway, but I'm wide open for suggestions, especially from Spike! :rolleyes:

[jiesen]

and took the cue from Spike's POTW entry to buy some NEXC on a pure daytrade/TA joyride. I put 2% in at 10.3, and will sell this today for either a 3% loss or a 10% gain. That's the plan, anyway, but I'm wide open for suggestions, especially from Spike! :rolleyes:

cutting and running here for a breakeven. I gave it a chance, but it's not happening.

[jiesen]

Sold a 2% position in LJPC at 7.0. That still leaves over 30% of my port in it, though. I'm considering putting this 2% into NFI again either here or at maybe a bit closer to 4.

[jiesen]

Picked my 2% NFI position back up (now I'm at about 5% NFI) here, looking for a quick 10-20% on this, or if not, I'll hold out for at least 40% long-term. Whatever happens, though, I'm not getting stopped out on this one... It could go to 2, but it'll be back.

[jiesen]

At least my employer had some good news today:

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b99F53119-C997-47F9-A3B6-C7965D563D72%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Maybe my stock options will go back in the money again this month...

Maybe tomorrow will bring some movement in the stock just in the nick of time for that call...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070329/genprobe_product.html?.v=1

News was just released stating that GPRO's PCA3 test does indeed better diagnose Prostate Cancer than traditional methods. (We've believed that for a while, but now the data is in.)

[jiesen]

sold a 3% position (about half) in one of my biggest mutual fund holdings today, thinking to take some off the table when the market is hot. I'll likely deploy this again when the market is back in the tank next month or next year.

By the way, this fund has made me about 68% over 6 years or so, for about a 9%/year gain. This beats the S&P's 0% gain over that time!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEICX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC

[jiesen]

Picked my 2% NFI position back up (now I'm at about 5% NFI) here, looking for a quick 10-20% on this, or if not, I'll hold out for at least 40% long-term. Whatever happens, though, I'm not getting stopped out on this one... It could go to 2, but it'll be back.

Sold this 2% (about half of my NFI) at 5.5 today, about 10% above where I bought it.

[jiesen]

cutting and running here for a breakeven. I gave it a chance, but it's not happening.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NEXC&t=5d

Guess I shoulda held out for a couple more weeks. Doh!

[jiesen]

got back in here at 5.1 again, bringing my total NFI back up to 5% or so.

Now I wouldn't mind it if they sold out next month for 8 or 10, but a recovery back to 20 or 30 would be even nicer. Or a $4 dividend this year would keep me from hating them if none of the above were to happen.

[jiesen]

got back in here at 5.1 again, bringing my total NFI back up to 5% or so.

Now I wouldn't mind it if they sold out next month for 8 or 10, but a recovery back to 20 or 30 would be even nicer. Or a $4 dividend this year would keep me from hating them if none of the above were to happen.

Sold these shares for 5.6 today, about 10% above where I got 'em last week.

[Tatnic]

sold a 3% position (about half) in one of my biggest mutual fund holdings today, thinking to take some off the table when the market is hot. I'll likely deploy this again when the market is back in the tank next month or next year.

By the way, this fund has made me about 68% over 6 years or so, for about a 9%/year gain. This beats the S&P's 0% gain over that time!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MEICX&t=my&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=%5EGSPC

9% is pretty marginal, eh? Of course its better than zero or negative which is what the cubes have returned over that same period. One thing you can try which is better/easier than trying to time the markets is to keep a portion of that fund but add some diversity with other index funds. I'm pretty sure you could do much better than 9% without the hassle of trying to be perfect on your timing, at least that's what I've found.

[jiesen]

9% is pretty marginal, eh? Of course its better than zero or negative which is what the cubes have returned over that same period. One thing you can try which is better/easier than trying to time the markets is to keep a portion of that fund but add some diversity with other index funds. I'm pretty sure you could do much better than 9% without the hassle of trying to be perfect on your timing, at least that's what I've found.

Sure, Tatnic, there are numerous ways to beat 9%, but I have found they are much easier to spot in hindsight. But thanks for the advice, I'm glad to get it. In a way, I am doing just what you are suggesting. By selling half of this position, I'm diversifying my mutual fund holdings, since this was one of the largest of my holdings overall (about 25% of my portfolio is in mutual funds, mostly in chunks of about 2-3% in each). When I reinvest that money, I'll put it back into another fund or stock, which may be similar, but it won't be in the same investment, so I'll have less tied to that one particular fund.

Back to the 9% though, that's one of my better-performing funds overall. Most which I've held for a while have appreciated on average between 6-8%, which is just about what typical market returns have been. I'd have done better to just stick it all in an index fund, and avoided paying the 1% fees to the mutual fund managers. And in fact, that's partly what I've started to do. The funds I invest in automatically now through my 401k are mostly either bonds or large-cap funds which will pretty much do what the S&P does.

I know it must sound lame to those of you who can easily beat the market by 5-10% consistently each year, but I know I'm not capable of doing that yet. I'd love to be able to, and that's why I'm here every day trying to learn as much as possible, but I have to be realistic in my expectations. If I could be sure of making 10% every year, I'd be able to retire tomorrow. Heck, I would then just keep borrowing at 7% and pretty soon I'd have more money than I'd ever need.

[jiesen]

Sold these shares for 5.6 today, about 10% above where I got 'em last week.

darn! I guess I should've held out for 6!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NFI&t=5d

[jiesen]

darn! I guess I should've held out for 6!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NFI&t=5d

or 7... Doh!

[jiesen]

Added another 2% of AMLN to my portfolio today at 41.4. I'm now up to 4% AMLN.