Runner's Rascals

[Runner]

I like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/6416/ufpire9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

JOYG is another candidate. Chart is a little loose and notice how it tightened up during the acceleration down from last base. This one needs to pull back more. I think this stock belongs around the 22.00 area
http://img91.imageshack.us/img91/5378/joyg11mp0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

I like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/6416/ufpire9.png (http://imageshack.us)

Runner,
It looks to be setting up like it did previously before this recent drop. Another bear flag could easily take it down to under $40. That would be a nice short if it does drift up a bit before the next slide down. Looks worth keeping a eye on for the next couple of days. I think it tanks just like you called it.

[Runner]

I got it loaded into my screen Ski. The group looks about the same. All in down trending mode. Not many in the group here is the list I show for comparison and group chart action. KOP LPX WY AERT AMWD MYS DEL POPEZ

[New-born baby]

Runner,
It looks to be setting up like it did previously before this recent drop. Another bear flag could easily take it down to under $40. That would be a nice short if it does drift up a bit before the next slide down. Looks worth keeping a eye on for the next couple of days. I think it tanks just like you called it.

Ski,
You are right. It seems to be working on a bear flag on the weekly, and if it busts current support ($50), then $40 minus seems to be the next stop. Nice call; I'll be watching it.

[Runner]

Pink line is the sub sector action for Lumber, Wood Production. Notice at point 1 how the sector puts in a mini double top. Action was confirmed in UFPI as well. Point 2 shows the sector in drift mode. Sector crashes with confirmation on UFPI. Point 3 shows sector possibly putting in a mini double top. This very well may act as R and send the group down for another leg out…
http://img142.imageshack.us/img142/6448/ufpi1ci8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

NB I put in last 5 days volume as well. Now these need Further investigation and many very well may not be ready yet, as they are still pulling back. I’m going into the groups this weekend and see how things look.
AA
ABAX
AEOS
AMT
AMX
ANDE
ARII
ARW
ASEI
ASTE
ATI
BAS
BRY
BVN
CAL
CAS
CCJ
CHAP
CMC
CR
DO
DRQ
ECA
ERF
FCL
FCS
GLG
GMRK
GMT
GOL
GSF
HERO
HSC
ICE
IVAC
KCS
LTM
MAN
MBT
MDTL
MRTN
MTLM
NDE
NEM
NEU
NOV
NSC
NSS
NUE
NWRE
OS
PBW
PD
PEIX
PJC
RIO
ROP
RTI
RUTH
RVI
SSRI
STLD
STT
SU
SWN
SWSI
TAM
TEX
TSO
TX
UNT
VLO
WPSC
X
XTO

I took the volume out because the post was a mile long...hehe
My random port is sucking wind with stop out on SWK. Follow up off master short list from back in May. Almost everyone on these guys triggered and fell down very well. June 5th and 6th sems to have been the huge trigger day!!

[dmk112]

I like this chart of UFPI. I would like to see the pullback drift up some more and get near the base. I think this stock belongs around the 36.00 area.

http://img157.imageshack.us/img157/6416/ufpire9.png (http://imageshack.us)

I like that one runner...

[Runner]

Dmk, long time hope all is well!!

Here is my updated list of potential shorts. I have one long in here OMCL… Most in pullback mode..

PEIX IIIN AIRM WFR RTI YHOO ASPV FWLT WSO LRCX CASY ECOL ISIL UFPI RYL HAL BHS SCSS KBH HOV BZH

[Runner]

Here a few I like BZH HOV and KBH all have the same set up taking place at the same time. In fact several in the Res Construction group look alike.

http://img239.imageshack.us/img239/9387/bzhet2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

My little experiment a few pages back on my test port is set up in a way I think is worth mentioning. Port value 10K and it has 10 positions. Most might think this is crazy and why would you buy 10 positions with only 10K? Here is what I’m interested in.
1. Risk
2. Size of position

Sure I’m risking 10% of the port if all got stopped out. This means I would loss 1,000 of the 10K. Now the actual risk per position is only 100. The size of the positions are based off the risk. You say wow why would one risk 10% on a position? Easy the position size defines my risk. Many do not understand this and simply plunk down the cash and buy as many shares as they can with out thinking about risk.

If you wanted you can size your position with as much risk as you want and still keep your 1-2% total risk tolerance of your position. 15-or 20% but here is what you should keep in mind. I’ll use my example port as an example. I’m risking 10% is this my R-multiple or R1. I’m looking for at least a R-multiple of 2 and ideally R3 or 30%. Each position is expected to increase to 20-30% or about $200-$300 remember I’m only risking 100. per position. I’ll then track the R-multiples for each position. Sure you might buy fewer shares, but you’ll not blow out your account. The experiment was also based on just a glance of the chart and that was it. I plan to run this experiment with my swing set-ups later.

First stop out is SWK with a little over R1 or 100.00
I think the huge trick with this is position allocation as to long or short. I’ve currently ran this port with a 30/70 or 30% long and 70% short. This is key in my mind.

[dmk112]

Dmk, long time hope all is well!!

Here is my updated list of potential shorts. I have one long in here OMCL… Most in pullback mode..

PEIX IIIN AIRM WFR RTI YHOO ASPV FWLT WSO LRCX CASY ECOL ISIL UFPI RYL HAL BHS SCSS KBH HOV BZH


Been out of the market for some time...it's been boring me. I found DXPE and it finally got me excited again :D
All is well...just busy with the 9-5 and my personal life.

[Runner]

Test Port had another R1 stop in ZMH and replaced it with UFPI short. I also took UFPI short in my real port. KBH did reach stop target and I pulled it due to weakness in the sector. Finally several are beginning to move in direction expected.

Current standings 9 open positions 5 up and 4 down. Will look for another short position to keep the 30/70 allocations.

[Runner]

Here is an interesting link. I-watch is suppose to give you a better feel for what the big boys are doing as far as buying and selling pressure. Take today as an example. The Q’s price went up, but further look under the hood says big dogs were dumping. How do you figure this out into the volume bare for today’s action? http://thomson.finance.lycos.com/lycos/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=qqqq

[Runner]

Well another stop out @ R1 with KBH and this makes a total of 3. Random port is sucking wind and thus far this little 10K is down 440.33. Only positive positions after first week is NJR CBSS and BYD. The 30/70 mix did not pan out this week as far as the shorts. I can see where this can really move against you if on the wrong side of the market. I’ll continue to play this port out and see what happens. I’ll set up another one and this time instead of the random entries I’ll focus on set-ups I like and compare both ports.

[Runner]

Possible swing plays early next week.. I got a few shorts in the mix. I still don't see much on the long side. http://www.stocktickr.com/George/

[Runner]

I like WNR and instead of repeating my post I have my plan on this trade located on my blog thing... http://geoshorttermtrading.blogspot.com/2006/07/wnr.html

The fish that got away..haha
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/1082/wnr2oc7.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I’m finding a few possible swing opportunities in the following:
DIGE BVN EAC SM CEO DNR BKD UNT NBR BBG ALJ NGPS SWFT(short)

Independent Oil and Gas and Oil Drillers.

[Runner]

I like BVN as it put in a nice base and currently in first P/B.
SWFT- may be putting in a bear flag.
NGPS- is currently in First pullback from base
ALJ- Pull back out of base

[Runner]

SM-gives confirmation long off P&F chart
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/2453/smyv6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Current triggers:
SM ALJ SWFT

Few still in set up mode:
DIGE BVN ATRS

[Runner]

Current triggers:
SM ALJ SWFT

Few still in set up mode:
DIGE BVN ATRS

Triggers
DIGE=gap
BVN=trigger and comes back in
ATRS=triggers and comes back in

[Runner]

Here was the SWFT play…

http://img66.imageshack.us/img66/4336/swftok8.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

ALJ
http://img197.imageshack.us/img197/1852/aljsw5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

Here is this week’s new high/low list thus far this week. My database covers 8,000 stocks.

http://img107.imageshack.us/img107/1401/52weekhlrn4.png (http://imageshack.us)

[ParkTwain]

Does your chart show the number of distinct *stocks* making highs, or is each figure the number of *instances* (maybe the same stock hits a new high more than once this week?) of a new high being made?

[ParkTwain]

Runner, I've been using the StockCharts.com stock scan ( http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.scan ) named "Parabolic SAR Buy Signals" to watch for swings up for stocks that are close to making a new high. But almost all the Naz stocks found from this scan are steep downtrending stocks that happened to show a new upturn and thus are probably setting up for a new move down. Maybe you are watching for this kind of thing already.

There's so many sh*t stocks on the Naz anyway, that it must pretty easy pickings for putting on new shorts.

[Runner]

Park, I have a scan that I’ve set up that feeds me the individual stocks that made a new 52 week high. If it makes another high the next day it remains on the list. I’ve also got the same thing for 52 week lows. I then input this data into excel and keep tabs on what is going on. I also monitor several Indices and input stock up vs. down into excel. From this info I compile a pie chart that gives some info I like. For example this week thus far I’m showing Bears have a nice gain over the bulls. In fact the data come out tonight as 76% bear and 24% bull. This does not imply one to run out and short the market. It just gives me a market bias. I run a momentum scan that is very loose from the scans I either confirm or deny my data. I mentioned this before somewhere on this forum. My scans return anywhere from 1000 to 1500 charts. I simply hit my space bar to cycle through and flag anything that remotely looks interesting. From the flagged charts I’ll create a new watch list and then look under the hood at what sectors have the most weight on my list.

[Runner]

I think what I do is what they call the tops down or bottoms up approach. I like for 3 things to be working in harmony.
1. S&P
2. Sector action
3. Stock

Currently we don’t have the three elements working in harmony and so stock pickings according to my scans have been skimpy. Many might disagree with this but hey like MR. Market has said, “more then one way to make money in the markets”.

[Runner]

First chart compares this week’s stocks making new 52-week highs vs. lows.

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/3076/52weekhl8116rw2.png (http://imageshack.us)

This chart shows market bias as per Bull/Bear action. This chart simply shows where you stood the best chance of making money. Shorts did well this week.
http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/8243/portallocationfj2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Rob]

Runner, I'm confused by that second one. I mean I understand the pie chart bit well enough; but what is the significance of the plum-colored rectangle and of the lines connecting it to the pie chart?

[Runner]

Runner, I'm confused by that second one. I mean I understand the pie chart bit well enough; but what is the significance of the plum-colored rectangle and of the lines connecting it to the pie chart?

Rob, the plum-colored rectangle has zero purpose for the pie chart. I guess I selected the wrong pie chart.

[Runner]

Well looks like things have been developing in favor of the bulls. I’m beginning to see technology starting to show signs of life. Here are some of the major Sectors that I’ll be watching.
Application Software
Computer Hardware
Internet
MuliMedia & Graphics Software
Semi
Telecom
Insurance

Possible Set ups:
ATRS
MU
ATMI
INFY
NTLI

[ninner]

i think the short has been set up. I believe a dark cloud cover has occured at what i believe to be the trend line...LOOks good to me.

cheers

[Runner]

Ninner, XPRSA does appear to be drifting. Possible short off Fridays lows. Caution should she pop over 23.00. I'm not sure about cloud to ground lightning...

[Runner]

Initial punch list

AB
AGR
ALTR
AVCT
BID
BRCM
CERN
CY
EGLT
ESE
FILE
FORM
FSL
HDB
IDTI
INTC
ISE
KFI
KLAC
MSCC
NGPS
NTLI
NVDA
PWEI
RBAK
REDF
SNX
STP
SYNA
THQI
TRID
TWTC
TXN
VCP
VRNT
WFR

[Runner]

15 stocks on list come from Semiconductor groups
Broad line
Integrated circuits
Specialized

5 come from Business Software & Services

[Runner]

Several trigger of punch list

[Runner]

I consolidated my scans tonight of stocks still showing up as TRUE and looked over another batch. Thus far SEMI stocks still have the most out of my results. Here are the sector action showing the most possible set ups.

SEMI-BROAD LINE
SEMI-INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
SEMI-SPECIALIZED
SEMI-EQUIP & MATERIALS
Number of SEMI stocks=16

Second group is BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES
This group has 6 stocks

For the most part the rest are under 5 stocks in the group.

Punch List:
AB ADTN AGR AIRM ALTR AMD ASML AVCT BID BMC BOW BRCM BW CBRL CERN COHR CY EFII EGLT ESE FAF FDG FMER FORM FSL FTEK GOL HDB IDTI INFY ISE JBX JDAS KBAY KFI KLAC MBT MCHX MDCO MEDI MEOH MOS MSCC NOK NTLI NVDA PWEI RBAK REDF SNX STP THQI TRID TXN TZOO VCP WWGI WW

[Runner]

Only 2 swings open SYNA and NTLI.

[Runner]

Here is a simple candle chart of MDCO. Notice the simple horizontal lines plotted at key areas of support and resistance. Remember once resistance is taken it now becomes support. What I like about this chart is that it appears to be building a support area right here at current levels.

Notice the congestive area from back in July. It did test the resistance line and finally popped out and had a retest of line in Aug. Resistance successfully held as support as buyers propped price higher.

Current action indicates a little indecisiveness on the bulls and this one may bounce off this area here and move higher. For this chart you know you would be wrong if price fell much below current level.
http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/2980/mdcoag4.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

I consolidated my scans tonight of stocks still showing up as TRUE and looked over another batch. Thus far SEMI stocks still have the most out of my results. Here are the sector action showing the most possible set ups.

SEMI-BROAD LINE
SEMI-INTEGRATED CIRCUITS
SEMI-SPECIALIZED
SEMI-EQUIP & MATERIALS
Number of SEMI stocks=16

Second group is BUSINESS SOFTWARE & SERVICES
This group has 6 stocks

For the most part the rest are under 5 stocks in the group.

Punch List:
AB ADTN AGR AIRM ALTR AMD ASML AVCT BID BMC BOW BRCM BW CBRL CERN COHR CY EFII EGLT ESE FAF FDG FMER FORM FSL FTEK GOL HDB IDTI INFY ISE JBX JDAS KBAY KFI KLAC MBT MCHX MDCO MEDI MEOH MOS MSCC NOK NTLI NVDA PWEI RBAK REDF SNX STP THQI TRID TXN TZOO VCP WWGI WW

Following dropped off my scan as they left the mother ship:

TZOO NVDA MSCC MEOH AVCT

[Runner]

Scan return tonight was 1,027 stocks and done looking through each one…hehehe!!

[Websman]

Scan return tonight was 1,027 stocks and done looking through each one…hehehe!!


It's been scorching hot for the past few days...and you still feel like looking through 1,027 stocks? Man you must be tough...lol

[Runner]

The following have dropped off my scan;
BRCM STP NTLI CERN HDB KBAY AVCT ASML ADTN WW ALTR SNX AB CBRL

[Runner]

Updated stocks that dropped of
NVDA STP BRCM FTEK MSCC NTLI CERN HDB MEOH KBAY KFI AVCT ASML INFY JDAS SNX ADTN ALTR JBX WW BMC AB CBRL

Tonight’s scans does not return much a flip. Maybe a few in Silver..

[Runner]

It's been scorching hot for the past few days...and you still feel like looking through 1,027 stocks? Man you must be tough...lol

Webs it only takes about 30 minutes to view them all. I’ll give each one maybe a few seconds to flag or pass.

[Runner]

This list is about exhausted and here are the total stocks and percent gain/loss since hitting list. Trigger zone is over and I will now need another pull back in the market to receive set-up. This is pretty darn good if I say so myself.

NVDA 10.46%
FORM 9.23
AVCT 9.21
TRID 7.75
KBAY 7.67
MSCC 7.02
CBRL 6.82
ALTR 6.65
ADTN 6.48
GOL 6.17
STP 6.17
BRCM 5.57
FSL 5.55
FSL 5.55
ASML 5.41
MEOH 5.24
BW 4.68
BMC 4.66
AIRM 4.61
FTEK 4.59
JBX 4.59
KLAC 4.51
WW 4.46
MBT 4.34
EGLT 4.31
INFY 4.29
TXN 4.04
THQI 3.85
SNX 3.69
PWEI 3.55
KFI 3.43
FAF 3.19
WGII 3.14
CERN 3.12
NTLI 2.96
MDCO 2.78
IDTI 2.67
COHR 2.57
HDB 2.46
VCP 2.45
MCHX 2.42
CY 2.30
ISE 2.21
BID 2.19
JDAS 2.14
AGR 1.99
AMD 1.71
REDF 1.45
NOK 1.45
EFII 1.44
RBAK 1.32
AB 1.16
BOW 1.02
The following are negative:
ESE .69
FMER .78
FDG 1.04
MOS 1.41
MEDI 2.26
TZOO 5.43

[Runner]

Results of tonight’s scans:

11 stocks from DRUG sector
11 from HEALTH SERVICES
10 from ELECTRONICS
8 from DIVERSIFIED SEVERCES

This leads me to think drugs; health services and Electronics might be the area to focus on next week.
Biotech
Diagnostic Substances
Drug Delivery
Drug Manufactures-Other
Health Care Plans
Med Instruments

[skiracer]

Results of tonight’s scans:

11 stocks from DRUG sector
11 from HEALTH SERVICES
10 from ELECTRONICS
8 from DIVERSIFIED SEVERCES

This leads me to think drugs; health services and Electronics might be the area to focus on next week.
Biotech
Diagnostic Substances
Drug Delivery
Drug Manufactures-Other
Health Care Plans
Med Instruments

Med Instruments - BVX - high on my watchlist for another entry this coming week.

[Runner]

Med Instruments - BVX - high on my watchlist for another entry this coming week.

I’ll check it out SKI. I have not gone through the stocks within the sectors yet and will do so this weekend..

Ski, I wanted to tell you awesome play on SONS. I hope it hits your target next week.

[skiracer]

Got a little of what I thought might happen this week. I think the uptrend will be stronger this coming week once it can clear $5 and hold that. I still in there holding.

[Runner]

Folks it has been a pleasure for me to have found MM’s forum. I’ve completed my quest here and in closing I shall say my findings in public.

First off posting ideas on a forum is meaningless. In that everybody has different thoughts and ideas as to a set-up or trading/investing methodologies. It appears posts on this forum have been lacking any substance. Do we all simply post to gather feedback of a certain idea? Or do we post –to- post? I view a difference of the two and this is how I view things. Those who post ideas are trying to get others to participate in the idea. This for the most part has not been occurring to any degree of useful information. I see posts simply being posts of what I view as popularity posts. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not here for any popularity contest. As my feeling will not melt if someone disagrees with an idea I’ve presented.

Without mentioning names I can count on one hand of those members who try to post any meaningful information that others may benefit from. Well having come to my senses I’m closing the runner thread and shall not post my thoughts on stocks. Like I stated it is meaningless and waist of one’s time. It appears to me as the forum has come down to popularity of forum members. I can honestly state my intentions of the info I’ve provided were good-natured. Was I looking for validation to my hundreds of lists? Yes, I think so. Was I trying to show that my ideas work? Yes, but then the light came on and I said why are you doing this? Could it have been insecurity on my part? Well it might. I thought maybe some lurker might make a profit on an idea I presented.

I wish each one of you success in your quest of the markets and that your goals become a reality.

George/Runner

[New-born baby]

Folks it has been a pleasure for me to have found MM’s forum. I’ve completed my quest here and in closing I shall say my findings in public.

First off posting ideas on a forum is meaningless. In that everybody has different thoughts and ideas as to a set-up or trading/investing methodologies. It appears posts on this forum have been lacking any substance. Do we all simply post to gather feedback of a certain idea? Or do we post –to- post? I view a difference of the two and this is how I view things. Those who post ideas are trying to get others to participate in the idea. This for the most part has not been occurring to any degree of useful information. I see posts simply being posts of what I view as popularity posts. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not here for any popularity contest. As my feeling will not melt if someone disagrees with an idea I’ve presented.

Without mentioning names I can count on one hand of those members who try to post any meaningful information that others may benefit from. Well having come to my senses I’m closing the runner thread and shall not post my thoughts on stocks. Like I stated it is meaningless and waist of one’s time. It appears to me as the forum has come down to popularity of forum members. I can honestly state my intentions of the info I’ve provided were good-natured. Was I looking for validation to my hundreds of lists? Yes, I think so. Was I trying to show that my ideas work? Yes, but then the light came on and I said why are you doing this? Could it have been insecurity on my part? Well it might. I thought maybe some lurker might make a profit on an idea I presented.

I wish each one of you success in your quest of the markets and that your goals become a reality.

George/Runner

Runner,
I hope that I have misread your post. I think I read that you won't be posting anymore. I sure hope not, because I value your opinion and viewpoint on positions taken. I have gained insight and grown in my investing philosophy from your posts. So from my point of view, I sure hope you'll stick around and give us your viewpoint. I want to learn something from you.

[skiracer]

Folks it has been a pleasure for me to have found MM’s forum. I’ve completed my quest here and in closing I shall say my findings in public.

First off posting ideas on a forum is meaningless. In that everybody has different thoughts and ideas as to a set-up or trading/investing methodologies. It appears posts on this forum have been lacking any substance. Do we all simply post to gather feedback of a certain idea? Or do we post –to- post? I view a difference of the two and this is how I view things. Those who post ideas are trying to get others to participate in the idea. This for the most part has not been occurring to any degree of useful information. I see posts simply being posts of what I view as popularity posts. I’ll be the first to admit I’m not here for any popularity contest. As my feeling will not melt if someone disagrees with an idea I’ve presented.

Without mentioning names I can count on one hand of those members who try to post any meaningful information that others may benefit from. Well having come to my senses I’m closing the runner thread and shall not post my thoughts on stocks. Like I stated it is meaningless and waist of one’s time. It appears to me as the forum has come down to popularity of forum members. I can honestly state my intentions of the info I’ve provided were good-natured. Was I looking for validation to my hundreds of lists? Yes, I think so. Was I trying to show that my ideas work? Yes, but then the light came on and I said why are you doing this? Could it have been insecurity on my part? Well it might. I thought maybe some lurker might make a profit on an idea I presented.

I wish each one of you success in your quest of the markets and that your goals become a reality.

George/Runner

Runner,
I feel the same way on occassion when I think I post something of value and it goes by without any comment or acknowledgement that it was even posted. You're not alone in wanting or needing some type of acknowledgement of your expertise or worth within the group. It's human nature and no fault on anyone's part to feel that way. You as much as anyone have always contributed 110% and have been genuinely sincere in the info you have provided in your posts. As far as the content of the dialogue on the forum of late it does seem that it is lacking substance to some degree from what we have had in the past. The only way to make that change is for each of us to try their best to elevate the level of our dialogue and subject matter. In doing that perhaps we will push each other to offer up more of what it takes to keep this place interesting and keep people like yourself wanting to stay. You're an integral part of this forum and have been here for quite awhile. Loosing your input and interaction is going to be a big loss to each and every one of us and the forum in general. Just wanted to let you know that everything that you put up here has been a positive effect for the forum an appreciated by all of us. Perhaps you might reconsider or over time your present feelings will subside and you'll begin posting again. It has been a good trip and I'm going to miss your posts and all around imput. Good luck to you Runner.

[spikefader]

Runner,

First, I want to say thanks for your contributions. Many of your posts have prompted me to think about things I may not have though of alone, and you've encouraged and promoted technical analysis from interesting angles, and you've also promoted sensible risk control and position sizing, all the while with a mature and friendly demeanor. You're one of the good guys around here in my book and I wish you success in all your goals and dreams. Sorry for not being more interactive in this thread, and not actively giving the recognition I think you're due.

Hope you'll still stick around and throw your opinion at stuff where you get the chance.

Best to ya!

[Rob]

Hey, Runner. Here's my "diagnosis," for what it's worth. You're suffering from Message Board Burn Out Syndrome, or MBBOS. Recommendation: cut back for a while, and if that doesn't work, cease MB activity altogether for a predetermined amount of time. Upon resumption go slowly at first. Find a comfort level and do not exceed it.

Seriously, I also like your contributions to the board and would like to see you stick around. I only wish you'd include volume bars on the charts you post! :)

Whatever you ultimately decide to do, best to you, dude.

[ParkTwain]

I can understand that you have stopped to consider what is the point of your participation on the board. There is not much structure in how this board is organized, and the participating individuals obviously take differing approaches to making $$$ in the markets. However, as you have learned, there are several basic and fundamental truths that come into play for a trader regardless of the specific techniques used to find opportunities on a daily basis, and you have posted often about several of them. That has lots of value to the board because each of us brings incomplete knowledge to the board and different paths followed for the experience each of has gained to date. So there is a good amount each of us can learn from any of us. People participate in the markets while having such differing life situations and money-making goals, that it's not surprising to me that there would be perhaps a relatively low intersection of needs about what to communicate to each other on a daily basis.

I think there is value in posting each person's own progress about how we are understanding and refining our own investing techniques. It is up to the individual to see the value in another person's point of view and techniques, and when something of more generally applicable value has been posted, or when any of us can see a practical benefit from another person's posts, it helps the robustness of the board to take the time to post and say so. This is a "fellow travelers" kind of situatiion with perhaps not a lot of intersection among board participants about specifics.

For instance, I think there could be a lot of value in discussing the relevance and usefulness of the various technical indicators. But that discussion is necessarily going to be affected by the assumptions of each trader, each trader's risk/return preferences, available capital, time available to spend doing research, computer savvy, etc. That's a lot to work through asynchronously among a large group of participants in an unstructured way.

So the result it that we learn to lower expectations of what can be accomplished informally among even the friendliest of fellow travelers. Out there in the universe of traders, I would say it's not that easy to find the fellow travelers except using these extended virtual networks that are made possible by the internet and various kinds of collaborative software.

The emphasis of your posts lately has been on fine-tuning a given rational approach to managing a portfolio of stocks chosen based on certain selection or set-up criteria. That has value in itself, given certain personal goals, but just as a for instance it's not exactly my own preferred approach right now. I see portfolio management in general as a wealth CONSERVATION practice, whereas I see myself as being in a wealth ACCUMULATION (more aggressiveness is preferred in taking individual positions) phase. Over the course of an individual's life and practice, there can be a place for both. (That is just one aspect where two board participants might diverge in their orientations to the markets.) But assuming one has success in wealth accumulation, then there will definitely be a time to want to practice wealth conservation. You could provide me with feedback about my perception about that if I am missing something.

[peanuts]

Runner,

Your information is good. Your charts are good... Your posts are good. I read them. Other people read them. We all get knowledge from them. We should give you more feedback, but when you are complete in your thoughts and structure, it is hard to add to it, or refute it, so the result is lower responses. Maybe if you dumbed down the posts, more participation would happen.

Keep posting, dude. I enjoy your thoughts. :)

Take a little break, but come back.

[Lyehopper]

Runner.... Your Hits to Posts ratio is one one the highest here at over 23.... That's right 23 or more members read every post made here. What more do you want dude?.... More popularity? Only NBB is more popular here and you ain't "preacher material" dude.... :p

I for one will really miss the thread. Please reconsider.

[New-born baby]

Runner,
I love your work, and I sure hope you reconsider. But what I'd like to see from your posts is a little more 'why we should buy/sell' a stock. What I mean by this is that you say things like, "Here are 15 stocks I found." Okay, how did you find them? What makes them attractive? Tell me why.

Another example: you wrote "these left the mother ship." Please tell me why. When Peanuts says, "Maybe if you dumbed down the posts, more participation would happen," this is what he is referring.

Sometimes you do tell me why. You wrote, "I wouldn't buy CEO now since is dropped 4% after the breakout. That tells me there is a trend change." Excellent!

But I would beware of just posting a chart without comments because I (for one) am too ignorant to grasp the meaning. I need an explanation.

I think you have lots and lots to offer this board, and I sure want to read it, as do Rob, Ski, Peanuts, Spike and others who have posted their dissappointment at your leaving. Besides that there are many lurkers out there who do not post, but do enjoy the reading. You have so much to offer. I just wish you'd stick around and offer it, and with a careful explanation.

[jiesen]

Runner,

NBB wants more feedback from you, you want more feedback from everyone, and I'm sure everyone wants to get as much as possible out of this forum. While there's always room for improvement, I know and you know that we're all busy people and can only contribute to a forum like this on an as-possible basis.

So, while I appreciate to an extent your frustration at not getting what you'd want (in a perfect world) from this group, and at the same time concede that I'm the first head that your TA flies over, I also want to say that your contribution here is very much appreciated by everyone, even those who are left speechless by the charts.

In other words: Runner, please don't go!

Rather than simply stop at that, I'll make a suggestion or two for you. While your ideas may not get the kinds of response that you desire here, that doesn't make posting them a bad thing. Perhaps you can adjust a few things to make it a more positive experience for you. Firstly, you can post the ideas that you have here, just as a journal for yourself- this is useful for your own introspection. It's also the main reason I keep up my thread here. I realize most here (or most that post) are TA experts and love discussing the finer points of EW or SHS formations, and have little use for my FA opinion on things- and likewise you should realize that your brand of TA is likely different enough from others' that they just might not know where to start in a discussion on it. That doesn't mean that at some point someone wouldn't strike up an invaluable discussion with you about it, given enough interest in your thread. I guess what I'm saying is, keep it up, but keep it real, w/r/t expectations. And remember that the one to benefit most from your posts *necessarily* is you.

[skiracer]

Runner,

NBB wants more feedback from you, you want more feedback from everyone, and I'm sure everyone wants to get as much as possible out of this forum. While there's always room for improvement, I know and you know that we're all busy people and can only contribute to a forum like this on an as-possible basis.

So, while I appreciate to an extent your frustration at not getting what you'd want (in a perfect world) from this group, and at the same time concede that I'm the first head that your TA flies over, I also want to say that your contribution here is very much appreciated by everyone, even those who are left speechless by the charts.

In other words: Runner, please don't go!

Rather than simply stop at that, I'll make a suggestion or two for you. While your ideas may not get the kinds of response that you desire here, that doesn't make posting them a bad thing. Perhaps you can adjust a few things to make it a more positive experience for you. Firstly, you can post the ideas that you have here, just as a journal for yourself- this is useful for your own introspection. It's also the main reason I keep up my thread here. I realize most here (or most that post) are TA experts and love discussing the finer points of EW or SHS formations, and have little use for my FA opinion on things- and likewise you should realize that your brand of TA is likely different enough from others' that they just might not know where to start in a discussion on it. That doesn't mean that at some point someone wouldn't strike up an invaluable discussion with you about it, given ,
enough interest in your thread. I guess what I'm saying is, keep it up, but keep it real, w/r/t expectations. And remember that the one to benefit most from your posts *necessarily* is you.

Jiesen,
You should seek a position as an arbitrater. Nicely put. I would also like to see more FA on anyone's part. Never know when you might just find something worthwhile from somewhere that you don't usually look.

[Runner]

(2/2/7)List will change often. The stocks mentioned here are for the most part momentum stocks with high historic volatility. Please do not buy these stocks unless they fit your style. Never buy any stock unless you do your own homework. Selection of stocks are only taken from a chart and I do not look into earnings for these potential plays.


Possible P/B plays:

None


Possible First P/B set ups out of base:


NONE


Possible new trend forming off Bow Tie:


NONE










Possible Short Plays:

None



1. What is the stock doing?

a. trending
b. sideways
c. accelerating

2. What is the sector doing and is this stock in rhythm with sector?

3. What is the S&P 500 doing?

4. What is the plan of execution?

5. Where do I get out if wrong?

6. Position size 1%

7. Initial Profit target (IPT)

8. Trail stop

Batch 1 Jan 19 2007 32.66% SPWR MNST WAT CBG WAT AMP LCAV HLEX

[Lyehopper]

Wow you guys are a tough bunch. Every one of you have prompted me some thoughts that I failed to pick up on. I know deep down that each one of you wish to do that right thing. I think Rob hit the nail on the head. I’m in burn out mode. I’ve always wanted to through out my crazy ideas in hope that maybe one person might benefit from something I wrote. Guys this is not the first time on this forum I’ve reached the burn out mode..

I thank each one of you that expressed your point of views and I value the time it took for you to do so. I’ll just chill out for a while and take it from there. Looking into my brain I see the frustration and have been doing some much needed soul searching. I simply got out of balance with my life. Yea I know this sounds deep. I was letting the markets consume every fiber of my being… Crazy right? I’ve even had sleepless nights and I’d get up and look over charts all night then go to work... and chase fireflies.. This went on for three days straight with zero sleep…heck I thought I was back in Iraq for a minute.. I kid you not as GOD is my witness.. Well I think it is time for a vacation from the grind and recharge my brain and try to get back in balance with life. Key word is BALANCE…

It was some of the things you people said right here that made me realize what was happening with me. I had not a clue until I read your posts…

Guys I sincerely thank you !!
Runner.... Speaking from experience I can honestly say that I am a "stock market junkie" or SMJ.... I have had to "reel myself in" more than once over the years.... Like anyone who deals successfully with an addiction you must identify it and admit it first.... Being a SMJ can result in bad things in ones life. Precious time can be wasted, money can be risked, family can be neglected, one's job or business can suffer due to this obsession or addiction. A forum like this is just part of the addiction....

It is wise (in my opinion) to realize the addiction and decide to control it for a change. Do you have to quit "cold turkey"? Well, that's up to the individual. Some can drink alcohol on a controlled level and some decide to quit altogether if it's a disruptive force in their lives. Nothing wrong with walking away and coming up with a plan.

Here's what I have recently realized about myself.... I love the action of active trading. I LOVE to make a big gain on a well thought out trade, it gives me a "rush".... The problem with a fella like me is this.... While I can make some awesome trades from time-to-time and when I'm "on my game" I think I'm invincible, then I get hammered by a few trades and get mad with myself. Here's what I have done to combat this addiction that I so dearly love. I have set up a much smaller account that is just for active trading. The bulk of my money is parked in safer 'vehicles" and longer term stocks. This seems to work for me as I am not ready to give up the addiction all together.... I have also decided to cut back on my forum activity. I read what I can and I enjoy it very much but I have too many other things that I need to be doing. So I guess what I'm saying is this.... I feel your pain as a fellow SMJ dude!.... :)

[skiracer]

Runner.... Speaking from experience I can honestly say that I am a "stock market junkie" or SMJ.... I have had to "reel myself in" more than once over the years.... Like anyone who deals successfully with an addiction you must identify it and admit it first.... Being a SMJ can result in bad things in ones life. Precious time can be wasted, money can be risked, family can be neglected, one's job or business can suffer due to this obsession or addiction. A forum like this is just part of the addiction....

It is wise (in my opinion) to realize the addiction and decide to control it for a change. Do you have to quit "cold turkey"? Well, that's up to the individual. Some can drink alcohol on a controlled level and some decide to quit altogether if it's a disruptive force in their lives. Nothing wrong with walking away and coming up with a plan.

Here's what I have recently realized about myself.... I love the action of active trading. I LOVE to make a big gain on a well thought out trade, it gives me a "rush".... The problem with a fella like me is this.... While I can make some awesome trades from time-to-time and when I'm "on my game" I think I'm invincible, then I get hammered by a few trades and get mad with myself. Here's what I have done to combat this addiction that I so dearly love. I have set up a much smaller account that is just for active trading. The bulk of my money is parked in safer 'vehicles" and longer term stocks. This seems to work for me as I am not ready to give up the addiction all together.... I have also decided to cut back on my forum activity. I read what I can and I enjoy it very much but I have too many other things that I need to be doing. So I guess what I'm saying is this.... I feel your pain as a fellow SMJ dude!.... :)

Basically it comes down to that it is gambling but in an educated sort of way if you can control it and make it that. I'm sure all of us here have experienced exactly what Lye has posted. You'll feel better after getting the next two or three winners under your belt.

[Lyehopper]

Basically it comes down to that it is gambling but in an educated sort of way if you can control it and make it that. I'm sure all of us here have experienced exactly what Lye has posted. You'll feel better after getting the next two or three winners under your belt.
LOL!.... Let-er-ride!!!! Baby needs a new pair of shoes!

Ski.... I really hate to use the "G word" here. Technically you could say that being in business for oneself or raising Beef Cattle is "gambling in a controlled sort of way" as well.

I'd rather refer to my active trading addiction as "investing in an aggressive sort of way"....:p

[Runner]

Here is todays buy signals. I've not yet tweeked the volume filter yet and code is set up for pullback buys. Still in development stage.

http://img299.imageshack.us/img299/6811/swingwi9.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Tatnic]

[QUOTE=Runner;63367]Folks it has been a pleasure for me to have found MM’s forum. I’ve completed my quest here and in closing I shall say my findings in public.

I'm having a hard time following your true meaning here. Did you say you had hundreds of profitable ideas and that no one acknowledged them? If its true that you had hundreds of profitable ideas then I missed out and I'm sorry.

One thing I've noticed over the years is that there are so many styles of investing and trading that its quite rare to find someone who matches your style perfectly and will benefit from it. For every profitable idea that pops up on this forum I can usually find 3 or 4 better ones and I don't bother posting them because I know most in here won't either comprehend them or care about them because they have their own set of eyes and experiences that influence their trading/investing choices. To be honest I've never even checked one of your suggestions because for some reason I just don't think its worth the effort.

[Runner]

Tatnic, it took me a while to understand your point. I'm over it now. It is so very true we all have different ideas and styles...

[Tatnic]

Tatnic, it took me a while to understand your point. I'm over it now. It is so very true we all have different ideas and styles...

good luck to you George...and watch your back in this market going forward

[peanuts]

Possible new trend forming off Bow Tie:

HLEX- I like how this stock has been in a nice downtrend and currently showing new signs of life.

HLEX's chart does look like it wants to take off. I think it will at least test the resistance at $25 based on the recent strength. Nice crossover of 20 day EMA and 50 day MA. The sector also seems to be strong.

GHDX may have put in a bottom on Friday. It has bounced off of the 50 day MA before. It might do it again...

[Runner]

Peanuts, here is a chart of GHDX and I’ve highlighted some of my study pertaining to Wide bar days. It also is tightly related to volatility.

Currently I see the expansion phase pushed this stock from 16’s to 24. This is a huge run. I think the compression phase is needed here before any huge run again. Notice my red lines indicating areas I feel are key.
http://img330.imageshack.us/img330/4825/ghdxlb2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Runner]

entire bow scan as of 1030 today

AAPL
ABC
AIV
ALEX
ALK
ASN
BBBY
BBH
CCE
CGNX
CHRW
CKR
CLUB
CMCO
CY
CYNO
DF
DIGE
DJUSSC
DSPG
ENDP
ENL
ESS
EVV
EVVV
FORM
FRED
GAP
GCF
GHCI
GYMB
HCC
HR
ID
INTC
ISCA
JOE
JOSB
KIM
LCAV
LCRD
LIFC
LRCX
LTM
LUV
MAPS
MCHP
MG516
MG716
MG831
MSTR
MW
NYB
OLA
PBI
PETM
PFCB
PGNX
PLSB
PRFT
PSI
QSFT
REGN
RI
RUTH
RWR
SBAC
SMH
SRR
TGT
VECO
WOOF
XTXI

[Runner]

Well it took a while but HLEX does not disappoint..

[peanuts]

Well it took a while but HLEX does not disappoint..

excellent! I'll have to add this to my watchlist. Any idea what kind of fair value you might put on it?

Chart says $30 is attainable, with resistance at 26.50 and 28

[Runner]

excellent! I'll have to add this to my watchlist. Any idea what kind of fair value you might put on it?

Chart says $30 is attainable, with resistance at 26.50 and 28

I agree on high 25's as possible R. I do view the slight gap as bullish

[Runner]

I like LCAV in the 37's.. with tgt near 200dma

[skiracer]

Runner,
I've been holding that gold ETF (GLD) since back in May/June of 2005. Up over 100 points since my entry. I think we'll see it over 600 or more by the end of 2006.

Still holding the position and now up 42 points. almost a double. this estimate seems conservative now but i think it could go to 1000 at which point i would have to take the money and run. Up over 40,000 gain with the trade. Hard to believe.

I've started to look at some longer term plays. I like DO & CME & TASR. I'm in TASR from 8 and am now considering buying again in this market pullback. this will provide a real good entry. looking for TASR to go over 30. Chicago Mercantile Exchange is one that is going to be involved in all the commodities that everyone uses everyday and is the closest thing a fund of all the products that are involved in our economy. Everytime someone makes a trade in the futures markets on commodoties and money they are in the action.
Diamond Offshore is a major player in the oil patch.

I am still swing trading but have been feeling more comfortable with the longer intermediate to long term trades driven by sales and earnings. Still am basing alot of the decisions on the technical aspects of the charts and but starting to look more into the fundamental areas of sales, earnings, and product. Less work holding for the longer term and finding the gems that will evolve into those big winners.

[IIC]

Still holding the position and now up 42 points. almost a double. this estimate seems conservative now but i think it could go to 1000 at which point i would have to take the money and run. Up over 40,000 gain with the trade. Hard to believe.

I've started to look at some longer term plays. I like DO & CME & TASR. I'm in TASR from 8 and am now considering buying again in this market pullback. this will provide a real good entry. looking for TASR to go over 30. Chicago Mercantile Exchange is one that is going to be involved in all the commodities that everyone uses everyday and is the closest thing a fund of all the products that are involved in our economy. Everytime someone makes a trade in the futures markets on commodoties and money they are in the action.
Diamond Offshore is a major player in the oil patch.

At the rate we are going it seems like we are going to have to carry an ounce of gold around with us so we can buy gas

[skiracer]

At the rate we are going it seems like we are going to have to carry an ounce of gold around with us so we can buy gas

if things continue as they are and oil keeps climbing it will ruin our economy and consumer spending will dry up and you know what that will do to this country and our economy.

[billyjoe]

Ski,
I've been against gold since it first went to 800 years ago and then back below 300. I never invisioned the dollar going down the toilet which means gold isn't the highly speculative commodity it's been all these years.

-------------billyjoe

[IIC]

if things continue as they are and oil keeps climbing it will ruin our economy and consumer spending will dry up and you know what that will do to this country and our economy.

To be honest...I really don't know what it will do. But I do know that a lower USD will allow US companies that export to sell more products overseas.

I believe that one of the problems is the idea of a New America and I posted this many years ago when WON came up with that term...I think it is a "New World"

Of course I want America to be the LEADER in the New World Economy...But not the Imperialist though.

[IIC]

Ski,
I've been against gold since it first went to 800 years ago and then back below 300. I never invisioned the dollar going down the toilet which means gold isn't the highly speculative commodity it's been all these years.

-------------billyjoe

Gold is a piece of shiny metal...It is only worth what people think it is worth...There are many uses for gold...just look at my back molars...But why do people want it or why do they think it is so valuable?

Heck...maybe we should have a Saffron based economy

[skiracer]

Gold is a piece of shiny metal...It is only worth what people think it is worth...There are many uses for gold...just look at my back molars...But why do people want it or why do they think it is so valuable?

Heck...maybe we should have a Saffron based economy

maybe it's because of it's scarcity, availability, how hard it is to find and mine out of the ground. it's not exactly like you go out and find it everywhere and just pick it up. there are other precious metals that cost more and are more scarce.

[mrmarket]

Group list for Friday:
ALKS
AOS
ARNA
CEPH
CLZR
CRM
CTRN
DAKT
FOSL
GFI
GLG
GPRO
HOV
IMCL
IPS
LI
MNTA
MTXX
MW
NDSN
REGN
RGLD
SERO
TEK
TOA
VIVO

http://img70.imageshack.us/img70/1654/watch0113067ag.png (http://imageshack.us)

Looks like Runner found FOSL well before I did..where did Runner go?

[jiesen]

Yeah, he also found GPRO right before I started working at the place! Wish he'd come back and tell us what he's been up to.