Swing trading Mr.Market's latest Top Five Picks

[spikefader]

This thread is dedicated to swing trading Mr.Market's latest Top Five picks.

EDIT: For the benefit of new readers of the thread, please note that this thread is now dedicated to swing trading current Mr.Market Top 5 candidates solely by using the 50% Fibonacci retracement of a move from a significant low to the latest high. Target is 15%, no stop. Retargets will occur on every new 50% retrace signal given. The first post in this thread that introduces the 50% concept into this thread is here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=9452&postcount=7 and the first trade of the system was in mid Dec here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=10237&postcount=14

The original setup was discretionary and based on channel theory discussed in my Scientific thread and in this thread, I will not be taking any more channel signals; only the 50% retrace signal.

My original and opening post for this thread was as follows:
"THE SETUP
1. All trades based on technical analysis as already discussed in the Scientific thread.
2. Charts must be clearly bullish, based on daily regression channel interpretation. If one of the picks has a bearish channel condition, then it won't be traded.
2. Entries will be based on the interpretation of intraday patterns and/or Fib support/resistance (pivot, S1 or S2). Pattern will be such things as inverted Head & Shoulders formations with neckline breaks, double bottoms, wedge breakouts, and bullflags. Basic Elliott Wave theory may also be applied to entries, where possible.
3. Targets will be based on channel formations and/or price level resistance and/or gap resistance, with a view to exit at any significant upper channel hit, any significant price resistance, or any gap resistance on the chart.
4. Exits will be made at intrady R1 and R2 where possible, unless conditions warrant immediate exits based on intraday patterns.
5. Stops will be used with all trades. Stops will never exceed 4% risk, and will likely average 1% risk, as they will be placed under the low of day of the day entered and moved to break even when in good profit.

Let the fun begin."

[spikefader]

CME long setup.
Daily is clearly bullish.
Intraday S2 bounce today, with inverted SHS and neckline break. Long from 197.40 was the play.
Target is upper channel.
Stop is 196.20 (fantastically low 0.6% risk only!)

[spikefader]

Oh, I should mention that Mr.Market's latest Top Five list is here: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=557
ARLP CME CWTR MCRI MPX

[spikefader]

Hey, this new system might be OK! First position doing well.

[spikefader]

CWTR setting up.

[spikefader]

Late call, but the play is long from 24.62, stop under lod.

[spikefader]

As discussed in 'stops are for wimps', MM Picks seem to perform very nicely when basing swing entries on a 50% retrace support to target MM's 15% gain.

These will be my entry points for the Veteran's Day Top Five.
ARLP 63.85
CME 186.14
CWTR 23.41
MCRI 30.51
MPX 21.63
Alarms have been set and I'll post the entries when they happen.

[spikefader]

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9360&postcount=6
10% profit thus far and holding long from 24.62
Target is daily upper channel currently 30.00ish, which is about 22% and rising.

[spikefader]

re: CME http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9278&postcount=2
Out for +0.65 or 0.3%. Small, but better than a loss, which the channel turndown is warning of.
There will be better entries for this one :D

[spikefader]

Here's the play.

[spikefader]

of the others:

CME 50% entry location is 192.45
MPX 50% entry location is 22.72
CWTR still 23.41
MCRI still 30.51

[spikefader]

re this entry:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9360&postcount=6
Channel turn down today, exit at close 25.53 for +.91 or 3.7% profit.

[spikefader]

Well folks, the new list of top 5s is in! ACRG.OB ARLP CME CRDN MPX
New stuff to watch! see here for list (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10174&postcount=1)
I'll be watching these five now for nice swing trade set ups with channel entries. Also for 50% FIB entries and I'll holler when I see them.

Oh, and anyone with time and inclination to do it, pretty please track the 50% entries for the old Top 5 and give a yell when they hit? It will be well worth calling out to the forum! :D I'll watch the new Top 5 for 50% entries!

[spikefader]

ARLP 50% entry here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10036&postcount=10)while I was away is in about 6% profit and going strong.

[spikefader]

missed opportunity with CME:

[spikefader]

Example of 50% retrace giving 15% profit for CWTR.

[RL]

Looks Like My Dart Picked The Winner Of Mr Narkets Last Top Five

[spikefader]

Congratulations :)
Now nail the perfect entry for us!

[RL]

I,ll get to work on It tomorrow going to dinner right now

[RL]

don't have a clue.

[spikefader]

don't have a clue.LOL
OK, this is the perfect entry here at the blue arrow! Now we just gotta be patient and wait for it.

[RL]

I did enter this stock at 25.25 and sold at 27.25 did not understand what you where looking for.Duh

[spikefader]

RE: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10036&postcount=10
Out of trade for 14.6% profit from the 50% retrace area of 63.74.

[spikefader]

MCRI: missed this one.

[spikefader]

Well folks, one of Mr.Market's Top Five (MPX) has us long today. Taking it right here at 25.90 and looking for 15%.

[Runner]

I’m looking to see if it bounces off 24.40-24.89

[Runner]

How about an entry @ 24.60 entry with stop @ 24.50?

[spikefader]

How about an entry @ 24.60 entry with stop @ 24.50?With these 50% entries, I have no stop designed into the system, although if the 100% retrace area doesn't hold, one would be justified to take the loss and get out.

From the backtesting, it pays to give them some wiggle room. And naturally, ensure to diversify with the no stop loss rule!! Diversification is key. Don't put all eggs in one basket with Mr.Market's picks!

[Runner]

well that did not work

[spikefader]

MPX:
Headed for next 50%?

[Runner]

Spike, what ya think of the 24.40 area? I finally see a spike low stick.

[spikefader]

Spike, what ya think of the 24.40 area? I finally see a spike low stick.Try for 23.90 entry in anticipation of inverted SHS.

[spikefader]

23.70 is the 38% support area from the bigger daily move, so that should give some good support too.

[spikefader]

Thread update:

Channels and latest Top 5: Well, not much happening on the dailies. One could have chased the recent ARLP channel turn up and be smiling.......missed that one. Continuing to watch.

MPX: Current prices are below a 50% retrace and therefore a bargain! 29.79 is the target for the entry yesterday at 25.90.

[Runner]

Good call Spike on MPX

[spikefader]

Good call Spike on MPXThnx. Looks like it's ready to rumble again...

[spikefader]

Here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10842&postcount=1) are Mr. Market's latest Top 5:

ACRG.OB BSTE CMN CWTR NGPS.

ACRG closed today with a channel turn up. But talk about low volume! Anyway, the play is long at 3.06 at open.

[spikefader]

re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10847&postcount=37
Long at 3.06. Chasing the dragon it seems, but that's the play. :D

[spikefader]

re http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10847&postcount=37
Long at 3.06. Chasing the dragon it seems, but that's the play. :D Channel long day today.

[spikefader]

CMN: The latest of Mr.Market's picks.
Here is the 50% play I am looking for:

[Websman]

I have plenty of time. $33.13 sounds like a good entry to me!

[spikefader]

CWTR 50% entry today.

Long at intraday S2 and 50% retrace on the daily at 28.18.

Get on the bus people. Target is 32.51.

[spikefader]

MCRI 50% entry day.
Taking it long intraday here at 35.30.

[spikefader]

CME 50% long entry today.
Long at 210.60

[spikefader]

NGPS 50% long entry signal occurred late yesterday.

Taking long today on the morning drop at 33.49.

A 15% target from the 50% retrace calculates as actual 25% or 41.92 from this entry.

Lots of these 50% retrace entries lately with the market weakness. This is the time to exploit the weakness. Just do it!

[spikefader]

Thread summary - all trades.

Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 target 41.92
CME at 210.60 target 243.04
MCRI at 35.30 target 41.34
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.51
ACRG at 3.06 target 3.57
MPX at 25.90 target 29.90

All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit

To sum up, it's been a great start to the thread. 3 closed trades for no losses. Total profit 18.6%.

6 open positions with some very healthy targets. All but one of those trades are based on the 50% retrace entry theory, so if you are not in any of them and are looking for a good trade, purchasing any of these at further discounted prices is encouraged and highly recommended. Remember, based on backtesting, Mr.Market's picks do very well from the 50% retrace zones.

[yaoyao]

In a market like this. It may be better to use 61.8% retrace line, or simply sit out.

[spikefader]

In a market like this. It may be better to use 61.8% retrace line, or simply sit out.Frankly, it's this kind of emotional fear reaction that one must refuse to let into their trading decisions. The fact will ALWAYS be that it is wise to buy weakness at support in a bull trend. We are in a bull trend, the market is displaying weakness, prices are at FIB support. Buy it, don't fear it.

[spikefader]

BSTE 50% retrace entry. Long 57.28. Target 65.87.

All Top 5 are long now :D When their targets are met, don't say you weren't given the opportunity! :D

[yaoyao]

The thing is that I'm not sure that the bull trend will continue.

Do you have your stops set for these trade?

Thanks.

[spikefader]

The thing is that I'm not sure that the bull trend will continue.

Do you have your stops set for these trade?

Thanks. I accept you may be fearful that the bull trend may not continue. But why do you feel that way? The fact is nobody is ever SURE of anything when it comes to the market. The market will do what it's going to do regardless of our feelings. The only thing one can do is have a plan and stick to it. My plan in this thread (at least for these 50%ers) is buy weakness at Fib support and have no stops. You know me - I love stops. But for this system, it is without stops , as I've already mentioned along the way in the thread.

Knowing this, anyone following or trading based on these examples, you can set your diversification and sizing according to the risk you can tolerate. Take the trades you can tolerate. Set any stop that you can tolerate, or don't set one at all. Backtesting showed that stops with Mr.Market picks will NOT prove worthwhile. This 50% retrace system seems to show that some downside should be expected, while sometimes price bounces right at the 50%.

[yaoyao]

Thanks, Spike, as always.

I wish someday I could trade like you: stick to your plan and leave emotions out. I started trading over a year ago, and really love it. I spent a lot of time on it after work. I am still struggling finding a system that works better for me. The hardest thing for me is to leave emotions out. Sometimes, it even affects my sleep at night. I have to learn to overcome that.

I like this system better. I'll try a couple of trades using this system.

[yaoyao]

Spike, after reading your post, I bought MCRI at 34.84. It's up almost a point now, and is the best performer of my positions today. It works pretty well so far. I also have ACRG that I purchased several weeks ago at 2.98. Let's see how that goes.

[spikefader]

Thanks, Spike, as always.

I wish someday I could trade like you: stick to your plan and leave emotions out. I started trading over a year ago, and really love it. I spent a lot of time on it after work. I am still struggling finding a system that works better for me. The hardest thing for me is to leave emotions out. Sometimes, it even affects my sleep at night. I have to learn to overcome that.

I like this system better. I'll try a couple of trades using this system. You're welcome. Stick at it yaoyao! Discarding emotion becomes easier the more you succeed at following discipline. It helps with a few winners too, but even in times of frustration just keep reminding yourself that it's a marathon and not a sprint, that downside IS going to happen, so expect it - and as long as you're on the right side of an edge, the edge will make the difference over time. As far as I'm concerned, buying at support is a distinct edge. So is the patience to wait for it. And so is sensible money management. Combine all three of those with any system that you develop and you're on the right track. Learn from lessons and modify behavior where necessary and it's just a matter of time.

If your trades are affecting your sleep, then downsize to insignificant levels where you don't care. Do that for whatever length of time until you get into a zone and level of realistic confidence that you are 'prepared within yourself' to slowly raise the stakes a little at a time. Then when you've proven to yourself that you can be disciplined and remain effective, then go back to the levels you're doing now. Life is too short to lose sleep over money and the market! The market will always be there so you can stroll and enjoy the walk.

[spikefader]

Spike, after reading your post, I bought MCRI at 34.84. It's up almost a point now, and is the best performer of my positions today. It works pretty well so far. I also have ACRG that I purchased several weeks ago at 2.98. Let's see how that goes. Congrats on a decent entry! Always nice to not have to sweat it after it's open. I really dislike starting in the red, just like everyone else :D There's an overnight double bottom, and price remaining above it. Now all you have to do is stick to your plan and smile no matter what develops. Good luck!

[yaoyao]

Thanks, Spike. You are such a good advisor.

The market didnt close pretty today. Where is "January effect"?

[New-born baby]

FYI:

Wells Fargo downgraded CWTR today. It said it is over valued.

[spikefader]

FYI:

Wells Fargo downgraded CWTR today. It said it is over valued.Oh goodie!

I just looked at the weekly for CWTR....it sure has had a strong run, it's looking bearish rising wedgy, and the 50% entry I took isn't from where I would describe a 'significant' low....therefore, seeing the position is in profit, recommend erring on side of caution and stop to even or at 27.29.

Thanks for the heads up New-born!

[RL]

Spike NGPS droped more yesterday but good news this morning on contract I,m buying on open should be around $32.

[noshadyldy]

R U T ROOOO! I'm in this one deep. Spike? Comments? Prayers?????

[spikefader]

R U T ROOOO! I'm in this one deep. Spike? Comments? Prayers?????It's right at the 50% retrace of the start of the big move. Pretty good support expected, especially since it's got some nice volume by price support at current levels. Nice channel long today too - from the low in late October. Now is a good time to be buying.

[noshadyldy]

It's right at the 50% retrace of the start of the big move. Pretty good support expected, especially since it's got some nice volume by price support at current levels. Nice channel long today too - from the low in late October. Now is a good time to be buying.

Thanks Spike. I needed that.

[IIC]

R U T ROOOO! I'm in this one deep. Spike? Comments? Prayers?????
Shady...noticed your Goethe quote...reminds me of my fave poem from about 35 yrs ago..."Farewell to Hamburg"...Was that Goethe or Faust???...I can't seem to find it on the net...IIC

[RL]

Spike looking good bought more.

[RL]

What happened OUCH

[yaoyao]

It's painful to watch my positions these days. Spike, do you miss your stops?

[spikefader]

It's painful to watch my positions these days. Spike, do you miss your stops? I take it you mean do I miss my stops for this 50% retrace system? Of course not :D It ain't so bad. While MCRI, MPX and NGPS are underwater BSTE, CME, CWTR and ACRG are doing well enough ....

In any event, one has to have every expectation that downside could happen on this 50% entry system. Backtesting showed this happened often enough, but that for a statistically significant percentage of time, price turns up and plods on to it's target.

For my usual system in the other thread, I strongly urge the use of stops. For this one, stops don't seem to work well enough to employ them. So, all one has to do is set the size so one doesn't get stressed or upset when these stocks fluctuate.

Honestly, yaoyao, if it is painful watching, you are in too deep. Swim back toward shore a bit til you're not fearful. In otherwords, downsize my friend.

[jiesen]

Shady...noticed your Goethe quote...reminds me of my fave poem from about 35 yrs ago..."Farewell to Hamburg"...Was that Goethe or Faust???...I can't seem to find it on the net...IIC
Farewell

To break one's word is pleasure-fraught,

To do one's duty gives a smart;
While man, alas! will promise nought,

That is repugnant to his heart.

Using some magic strains of yore,

Thou lurest him, when scarcely calm,
On to sweet folly's fragile bark once more,

Renewing, doubling chance of harm.

Why seek to hide thyself from me?

Fly not my sight--be open then!
Known late or early it must be,

And here thou hast thy word again.

My duty is fulfill'd to-day,

No longer will I guard thee from surprise;
But, oh, forgive the friend who from thee turns away,

And to himself for refuge flies!


1797.




-THE END-
Johann Wolfgang von Goethe's poem: Farewell


http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&q=Farewell+Goethe&btnG=Search


great poem! a Google of "Goethe Farewell" does the trick...

[yaoyao]

I think you are right. I spend too much time watching my positions, and get nervous.

Besides 50% retrace line, do you still look at other technical signals? For example, MCRI dropped across 50MA in high volume. It should be a strong warning sign.

Thanks.

[diz]

I think you are right. I spend too much time watching my positions, and get nervous.

Besides 50% retrace line, do you still look at other technical signals? For example, MCRI dropped across 50MA in high volume. It should be a strong warning sign.

Thanks.

What I'm worried about is Monday morning when IBD100 reactions kick in and TZOO shoots up while NGPS takes a dive from moving down the list.

Anyone have a method of generating the IBD100 without waiting for it? Maybe a collection of criteria on msn stock screener... or even screener settings on IBD.

[spikefader]

Besides 50% retrace line, do you still look at other technical signals? For example, MCRI dropped across 50MA in high volume. It should be a strong warning sign. Thanks. Always looking at stuff, and if it warrants to be genuinely concerned about the price movement, I'd be open to reconsidering whether a stop is necessary or whether full exit is prudent. As you can tell, this is early days with the 50% thing. I'm open to changes certainly, and it's in its infancy. Thus far I'm happy with the way it's working - especially considering I'm still not bearish on the market yet.

[noshadyldy]

Shady...noticed your Goethe quote...reminds me of my fave poem from about 35 yrs ago..."Farewell to Hamburg"...Was that Goethe or Faust???...I can't seem to find it on the net...IIC
I see someone else beat me to the answer. But I'm confused on Faust. I always thought that Faust was a fictional character in a play written by Goethe.
Perhaps the Faust character is the one that orates the poem in the play.
But that's just conjecture.

(by the way, that's NO shady, ICC!)

[noshadyldy]

what do you think worst case scenario is regarding how low it can go?

[New-born baby]

Shady,

I am following ngps, too. I don't own any--yet. But I'll tell you what I am looking for. I am looking for the morning star. That's a good sign of a reversal pattern. If you are into candlestick charts, the doji star formation will indicate a strong reversal. And then I'll jump in.

Best investing to you in 2005.

[Runner]

I doubt anyone can say where NGPS is going. This market has been plain ugly. Maybe institutions will jump in off the 50dma? But who knows, we need a little help next week maybe we will see the shorts begin to cover and give us a little rally?

[noshadyldy]

Shady,

I am following ngps, too. I don't own any--yet. But I'll tell you what I am looking for. I am looking for the morning star. That's a good sign of a reversal pattern. If you are into candlestick charts, the doji star formation will indicate a strong reversal. And then I'll jump in.

Best investing to you in 2005.
Newborn baby, you're a doll! Maybe its that gummy jawline, or that Poindexter look you so easily achieve with your glasses, but you do it for me! (IIC, even you can't compete here!) By the way, I had a little monkey when I was a young girl. I really loved her.
Anyways, I don't know the morning star. Is it part of the candlestick method you mention? Please, steer me to where I can learn this morning star.
Also, yes, please cough up those other Canadian stocks with those great returns. I was unaware that you could buy on the Canadian side by calling in. I also am with Scottrade. Thanks so much, you handsome devil.
M

[noshadyldy]

I doubt anyone can say where NGPS is going. This market has been plain ugly. Maybe institutions will jump in off the 50dma? But who knows, we need a little help next week maybe we will see the shorts begin to cover and give us a little rally?
good point on the shorts. Lets hope your right.

[New-born baby]

NOShadylady,

Sorry, but I'm happily married. (Smile) And my wife, contrary to my appearance, is a real doll baby.

Let's talk first about the doji star, also called the morning star. If you go to stockcharts.com, they can make candlestick charts for you. Yahoo can, too. In any case, a morning star formation is a formation that signals a strong reversal. Stockcharts.com will even scan the market for doji stars. Most likely, [okay, hopefully] ngps will make one of these Monday or Tuesday next week.

The morning star forms after an obvious downtrend (e.g. ngps has shown us an obvious downtrend these last couple of days) and has three parts.
ONE: a long decline in one day (e.g. today's drop of $1.91 is a perfect example).

TWO: Perhaps Monday, ngps will drop some more and form the "star" part of the formation. What would happen is this: ngps will gap down, but the trading range will remain small for the day. This indicates indecision between the bears and the bulls.

THREE: If that happens, then on the next day we ought to have a gap up as the bulls jump in and take over the stock. That's when I want to jump in.

It may take a week or more for the stock to regain what has been lost. It probably won't happen the first day, but who knows?

What's happening is that the overall market is being sold down, esp. the NAZ. But I do not expect that to last too much longer. On the other hand, what do I know?

[New-born baby]

NOshadylady,

Okay, let's talk Canadian Royalty Trusts. I love them and have profitted nicely by them. I hope to offer some real help to you.

First, you'll need to call your local Scottrade office and request your broker to buy "units" for you on the Toronto Stock Exchange. There are about 200 royalty trusts, but I am interested only in the 12 cream of the cream trusts out there.

Here are what I consider to be the best of the best.
1. AE.UN Acclaim Energy pays 14%, as safe as a money market fund.
2. PMT.UN Paramont Energy Trust pays 15% and a good company.
3. AY.UN APF ENergy pays 16.4% and solid
4. BTE.UN Baytex Energy 14.7% For every dollar of Unit price, has $2 of oil in reserves.
5. NVG.UN Navigo--pays 18% and more risky. The risk is that the dividend will drop to 15% or some such figure. A good play if you wish to see appreciation in the stock price.
6. VKR.UN Viking==pays 15% and a good company.
7. NAE.UN--NAL Energy pays about 15% and excellent.

I am too lazy to mention the others. Besides, invest in these and enjoy.

I do or have owned all of these companies. They pay a monthly dividend in Canadian dollars. It is nice to get a check every month. These are the privatized Social Security system stocks of Canada. The companies have tax exemption as long as they pay out more than 50% of profits to the unitholders. If they drop below that figure, they are taxed heavily, so they must pay out the cash. When you receive your dividend check, the gov't will withhold 15% for capital gains tax, which you will receive back (up to $3k) under FOREIGN TAX CREDIT.

These investments are nice in nasty markets, like the USA market was March--Election time. Over the last five years, no investment has exceeded the Cans for profit, averaging about 27% per year (dividends and capital gains).

Now, let me tell you when I think you should buy. Buy two days AFTER the ex-date for the dividend. Go to TSX.com and punch in these symbols, and then on the right hand side you'll be able to find buttons to click on for charts, volume, news. News will tell you when the ex-date is. Buy on the 2nd day after the ex-date, about 10 a.m. EST will probably offer you the best price.

[noshadyldy]

Gosh NewBB, I never knew such wonders existed! I'm serious! I'm going to print your info out and put it on my list of things to tackle and learn.
As for the wife, well, if she ever stops keeping a tidy cage, or losses her touch for bugs sauteed lightly with bananas... you just let me know. (smile)

I caught the correction of my name. :)

[New-born baby]

NOshadylady,

If you want the ultimate in safety, buy AE.UN and enjoy 14% divys. (pays 50% of its income to unitholders). If gas price drops severely, can still maintain the .1625 per month per unit divy. If I were buying and didn't want to worry in the least about it, this is it. The Ultimate in Cream.

AY.UN will serve you well, but payout ratio is about 85%. They drilled 120 oil wells in 3q 2004 and hit oil 120 times. Excellent company. Pays .16 per month. And moving forward. I made a lot of money here. I'd buy this in an instant.

VKR.UN is cheap to buy, about $5 US, and is on the move forward with excellent management. Pays .08 per month. Buy this if you want to sell in three years for $10 US.

PMT.UN--made me a lot of money, and pays .20 per month. Divy may go to .22 per month in February. If so, unit price will go to $18CD, or whatever works out to 15% dividend.

I hope my spelling did not insult you. My wife reads this forum, too, and, well, let's just say she packs a pair of 45s-- to church no less.

Best investing to you. You should do well here.

NGPS--the statistics say that buying into weakness is much more profitable than buying into strength. NGPS has shown us alot of weakness. Sooner or later, it will bounce.

[noshadyldy]

"I hope my spelling did not insult you. My wife reads this forum, too, and, well, let's just say she packs a pair of 45s-- to church no less."

Good Heavens, No! I just like to tease people. Thank you so much for all the information too. You're a gem. Smart woman, your wife! ;)

[New-born baby]

NOshadylady,

You'll do very well with the Cans. Now, one last piece of info. IF you go with Interactive Brokers, you can buy these directly off your computer like you would any Dow stock. In other words, Interactive has a direct link to the Toronto exchange, and that has real advantages. If you have that possibility, then you should do it.

Consider this: if you buy a Can and the share price should drop, just hold it and let it pay you until you are even. Take PMT for instance. Pays .20 per month. If the price dropped a dollar, in five months you are even again. It is like trading with a parachute.

My wife had a good laugh off of the sauteed bananas. Now if you can tell me how to import an avatar, I'd change faces--for sure.

[spikefader]

what do you think worst case scenario is regarding how low it can go?Hi noshadyldy. Well, technically I would expect support at the arrows in the below chart. The volume is hinting that it's nearly over anyway.... you know capitulation :D

Let's face it, that bullish run in the last 4 months is very impressive and one might now think a correction was 'due'. The only thing one can do is have the plan and stick to it. The plan is 50% entries from significant lows, and be patient if it drops below it....give it time. The thing now in our favor is the volume and the speed of drop. Capitulation is an amazing thing. Just when a buyer/holder's fear levels reach extreme points, it's usually the time they sell only to see the thing bounce. Had I bought at the recent 50 high, my fear levels now would be extreme :D So this is good.

But having said that, I don't have a crystal ball, and I must always warn that if there is bad enough news for a stock, it can shake the mightiest looking chart and send it plummeting. It is because of just this type of drop that I love stops for my usual 'perfect entry' type system. This 50% retrace system obviously is based on different stuff. It might take a while to hit the target after some meandering around, some drop, some gain, and lots of emotional turmoil. All I recommend is if you trade these 50% retraces, prepare yourself for this type of journey and size accordingly.

[spikefader]

...Now if you can tell me how to import an avatar, I'd change faces--for sure. Here's how you do yer avatar:
Pick a photo you like, save it to desktop, use Irfanview (http://www.irfanview.com/)or similar program to resize it to 100x100 pixels or 4.9kb (whichever is smaller).
Then go to Mr.Market webite,
click "User CP" near the top of the page
edit avatar
browse
and choose your resized image on your desktop.
then save changes and yer done!

[Gatorman]

Read your advice to New-Born on Avatars and am trying it myself. Hope if works.
P.S. I enjoy your charts and analysis. Keep up the good work!

[New-born baby]

Thank you Spike! Look for the "new" (pardon the pun) me soon. . . .

[noshadyldy]

Thank you so much Fellas. I've printed off your information and it's going to be very valuable to me. Spike, my knuckles went white this morning. Such whipsaw action on NGPS, but I will learn to relax eventually. When I look back at so many trades that I bailed out of due to panic and now look at them, I want to VOMIT! Wonderful gains that I would have had if only I would have stayed the course.
And you NewBorn Baby, thank you so much for that incredible info, all of it, on those canadian deals. I will be looking for your thread and more from you in the future.
I was pulled into the hospital for the last several days due to a shortage and have been run ragged. I'm just now catching up on correspondance, hence the delay.
Thanks again,
Margie

[spikefader]

Thank you so much Fellas. I've printed off your information and it's going to be very valuable to me. Spike, my knuckles went white this morning. Such whipsaw action on NGPS, but I will learn to relax eventually. When I look back at so many trades that I bailed out of due to panic and now look at them, I want to VOMIT! Wonderful gains that I would have had if only I would have stayed the course.
And you NewBorn Baby, thank you so much for that incredible info, all of it, on those canadian deals. I will be looking for your thread and more from you in the future.
I was pulled into the hospital for the last several days due to a shortage and have been run ragged. I'm just now catching up on correspondance, hence the delay.
Thanks again,
MargieYou're welcome. White knuckles huh? Emotions sure are tough to ignore, certainly. But just make sure you're not overcommitted. If you are, the emotions may be just too high to beat. What you want to do is trade a size and amount of capital in any one trade that leaves you carefree....the commitment just isn't big enough for you to worry about. That way, it is EASY to fight emotion and follow logic, since emotion is much much smaller. You need the ability to follow the logic rather than then emotion. This is the only way a new trader will be able to succeed in my humble opinion. White knuckles is really telling you that it's currently very difficult for you to be calm and relaxed about the currently losing trade. Do you have an exit rule or plan in place? What was the rule before you opened the trade? If you didn't have one that you felt comfortable with then you should have delayed opening the trade. You see, whether you use no stop loss at all or a percentage stop or price support stop, it doesn't matter....just as long as at the time you open the trade you are absolutely comfortable with the risk you are about to open to your capital. If you're not comfortable with it, don't trade it. When you are comfortable with your risk and have a plan, then trade it and smile at the outcome win or lose. It's ok to fail, as long as it's failing within your predefined limits. Keep it within your limits and you are succeeding. Remember, it's the trader who manages her/his capital the best that succeeds. This includes managing the downside trades. If you do this by diversifying and not using stops, or by using tight stops like I usually prefer, the management is what is keeping you in control. If you leave the downside management to emotion, or leave it recklessless to the market to decide, then you're out of control, and that's what makes you want to vomit about those other trades, that you lost control of them, let emotion decide and in hindsight wanting to kick yourself. Anyway, I hope some of that is helpful. Trading is SO HARD and I will be the first person to admit that I have made many mistakes based on emotion. It is completely normal, and any trader who says that's never happened to them is either lying or is genetically devoid of emotion :D

[noshadyldy]

I know how to make it go up. I'll short it.

[spikefader]

I know how to make it go up. I'll short it.Yes, that should do it. Open a second account and short 1 share :D
Well, it's currently at the 61.8 fib retrace zone since the move from the October lows. It's also at intraday S2 at 25.58. Anyone out there that isn't long this thing, now is an absolutely fantastic place to be buying it :D at least from a technical perspective. I don't know the fundies, and I just checked and there's no news for it. Anyone open to dollar cost averaging, this would be a nice place to do it.

[noshadyldy]

Yes, that should do it. Open a second account and short 1 share :D
Well, it's currently at the 61.8 fib retrace zone since the move from the October lows. It's also at intraday S2 at 25.58. Anyone out there that isn't long this thing, now is an absolutely fantastic place to be buying it :D at least from a technical perspective. I don't know the fundies, and I just checked and there's no news for it. Anyone open to dollar cost averaging, this would be a nice place to do it.
Thanks again. What i've decided to do is take your advice from the prior post and resize my position. I cut it in half and put in a new buy order at 21. No available funds to average down at this time.
I'm also going to be away for almost a week as of wednesday and will sleep better.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I jumped on the bus with NGPS today at 25.85,intraday it looked to bottom out around mid morning,and tried to catch at 25,it shot so fast to 26 I thought it was off to the races,instead of leaving my buy at 25 and being patient,I raised to 25.85 and left for lunch,not really liking my chances of gettng filled.Well the rest is history,as it nosedived below 25.

I believe I know the reason for the sell-off,as of 12-30-04 CMC electronic,a holding company for NGPS had a sale of 3million shares,effectively doubling the float,which correspondingly cut 50% from the pps.

I figure Ill look for an easy exit asap,usually is the strongest in the morning.Would this affect your trading strategy at all?I couldnt understand the sharp selling pressure until I dug that up tonight.

cordially Tom

[New-born baby]

Thomrich,

I have been watching NGPS very closely, too. My thinking (I am not capable of much thinking) is that TODAY (1-11-05) NGPS might have finally hit bottom. Why? If you read my posts to NOshadylady, I said I'd be looking for a doji star. It is only 10 a.m. EST, but it APPEARS that today is the day that star might appear. If so, tomorrow will start an upswing for NGPS.

What I am looking for a doji star to form, is a day of big swings up and down, but a closing price just a little lower than the open. Today, we have had the swings, but it seems that the war between the bulls and bears is pretty near even, the stock being down just .35 or so when I write.

I write these things just to offer my 10 cent opinion and perhaps help you make a prudent decision with NPGS.

Best investing to you always!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
I dont think its done yet,its breaking into 22 range as I type,Im out for the duration ,as I think this whole market is setting up for a haircut.INTC will be the catalyst IMO.

Never try catching a falling knife could not be truer.

BTW ,I did a nice swing on PGH post dist.,in at 19.30,out at 20.30.in two days.
Thats 5 mos distributions in 2 days,and no 15% withholding.

cordially Tom

[noshadyldy]

NGPS is giving a nice scoop up but it's done this several times over the last 5 days on it's way down. Don't know if it's my woman's intuition or that last donut I just ate, but I've got an uneasy feeling in my stomach and I just don't trust it yet.
Newborn baby and spike, I'm checking in later to get your input if any.
Now back to comfort eating. oink!

[New-born baby]

Greetings,
I dont think its done yet,its breaking into 22 range as I type,Im out for the duration ,as I think this whole market is setting up for a haircut.INTC will be the catalyst IMO.

Never try catching a falling knife could not be truer.

BTW ,I did a nice swing on PGH post dist.,in at 19.30,out at 20.30.in two days.
Thats 5 mos distributions in 2 days,and no 15% withholding.

cordially Tom

PGH--
Hey, why don't you give me a heads-up and I'll jump in with you next time? I'd like that!

Why don't you give us your set-uo? For instance, are you looking to buy at $19, or what?

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
On PGH or any other canroy,I look after distribution date for a drop,usually to 50dma and see if it holds,then buy usually 1k shares.This past month it happened back to back days.Its a stable swing IMO because of the monthly dist.,it doesnt sink below 13% yield .

Ill be watching EENC for a similar play.

Its not huge moves like a SIRI,but its quick,and regular.

Now if I didnt bite on NGPS today Id feel much better.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
I jumped on the bus with NGPS today at 25.85,intraday it looked to bottom out around mid morning,and tried to catch at 25,it shot so fast to 26 I thought it was off to the races,instead of leaving my buy at 25 and being patient,I raised to 25.85 and left for lunch,not really liking my chances of gettng filled.Well the rest is history,as it nosedived below 25.

I believe I know the reason for the sell-off,as of 12-30-04 CMC electronic,a holding company for NGPS had a sale of 3million shares,effectively doubling the float,which correspondingly cut 50% from the pps.

I figure Ill look for an easy exit asap,usually is the strongest in the morning.Would this affect your trading strategy at all?I couldnt understand the sharp selling pressure until I dug that up tonight.

cordially TomHey Tom. lol "off to the races", yeah, I know that feeling. Thanks for the headsup on news for NGPS.

What will I do with this? Well, I'll stick to the plan and hold patiently. My size is appropriate to the risk and unless it breaks the 100% retrace zone (relative to the low I used) I'll not get worried. Should that 100% retrace occur, I'll modify my target based on the last valid 50% entry point and take 15% from there instead of my entry.

Right now, NGPS is making a lovely bullish intraday move, taking out the open and continuing. This should give us a nice daily candle to boost the spirits noshady :D

[New-born baby]

Greetings,
On PGH or any other canroy,I look after distribution date for a drop,usually to 50dma and see if it holds,then buy usually 1k shares.This past month it happened back to back days.Its a stable swing IMO because of the monthly dist.,it doesnt sink below 13% yield .

Ill be watching EENC for a similar play.

Its not huge moves like a SIRI,but its quick,and regular.

Now if I didnt bite on NGPS today Id feel much better.

cordially Tom

Tom,

Throw me a headsup next trade, a day or two in advance, if you will. Also, any other Cans you trade besides EENC and PGH?

My prognosis for NGPS is that it hit bottom today, and should move up Wednesday.

[New-born baby]

My prognosis for NGPS is that it hit bottom today, and should move up Wednesday.[/QUOTE]

NGPS--looking over the candlestick chart, it appears (re: "it appears") that NGPS may be set up today for a piercing pattern reversal. What that means is that yesterday's price action formed a pattern that signals a reversal in the trend. Of course, NGPS was downtrending (to say the least!) and a recognizable pattern formed that may (re: "may") signal a trend reversal.
What we need to do today is look for bullish confirmation that the "Piercing Pattern" is indeed a "Piercing Pattern." That means we should look for up price movement on increased volume. I think we might successfully trade the stock this way:

1. Wait at least 15 minutes. We don't want to get caught in a bull trap. A bull trap is when the stock surges upwards at the open, and then dives back down to lower than yesterday's close. ELN is famous for these, King!

2. Then if the volume is up and the price moves above yesterday's afternoon high, about $25.99, then I think we have confirmation. If we do not get the surge, we do not have confirmation.

At this time, this is a highly volatile stock. The market has been downtrending and probably has some more to go. (Bear suit on now,Spike! We were up over 500 points since the election). I myself would look to NGPS for a short term day or swing trade to capture $1 or $2. Get it and get out. "There's danger here, Cheri." And remember IIC's famous line,'WHEN IN DOUBT, GET OUT." I like it. If you get a $1 gap up and get greedy, don't forget to use trailing stops.

We will watch and see what happens today.

[Runner]

Very good points Newborn. In this type of market DT or Swing works well off reversals. I concur 100% in regards of expectancy on return. Take what you can get and pull out. Holding overnight in this current environment could be painful.

[New-born baby]

Runner,

I like your Eagle Eye. Great avatar for a tech trader like you.

NGPS DID NOT confirm this morning. It did not break out of yesterday's high at open, and has since dogged down again. Apparently, yesterday was just a temporary breather on another leg down.

Also, did you notice the bear trap this morning? Gapped up, then fell. A real killer.

My advice: stand back and let her fall.

[spikefader]

Now back to comfort eating. oink! LOL that really is funny when I think about it. Eyes fixed to the screen with a box of a dozen Krispy Creme donuts in your lap, reaching for your 10th donut as NGPS breaks yet another intraday support level. Maybe in 10 years you'll think back and laugh..... hey, ya gotta laugh otherwise you'd cry. Emotions really hurt when a plan doesn't work. It's alll great and wonderful when a plan comes together, but oh so hard to accept failure. We humans are so complicated when we don't prove ourselves 100% foolproof. It's hard enough to admit defeat to ourselves let alone to others!

Anyway, seriously on NGPS though, it's very close to forcing me to recalculate my exit. It's close to taking out the 100% retrace zone from my entry - I took the 50% calculation from 22.53, so if that breaks then it would be illogical not to reformulate the target based on the next significant 50% retrace, which is from the low of 12.00 back in October. So from 12.00 to 50.30 is the move, and 50% is 31.20 give or take a few pennies. So 31.50 + 15% = 36.22. From my entry, that is about 9% profit and one heck of an emotional ride to get it. If that 100% breaks, it goes back to the next low and so on.

Just to make it clear, I'll not close this one using a stop, but only at a logical 50% retrace + 15% point. This is as unemotional as anyone can get about it. And the way I see it, even if it goes back to the 50% retrace from the move from back at the 1.76 low in Oct 02, we're still looking at a target of 29.95, which is only 3 1/2 points in the red from my entry.

Sometimes logic calls for patience :) ............ and the ability to eat 12 donuts in one sitting :D

[spikefader]

ACRG update. Retargetting to upper channel at 3.75. Stop to even now.

[spikefader]

CMN 50% condition met today: Looking to open long tomorrow.

[mimo_100]

For those of you who like statistics,

Since 2001, the average MM closed out winning stock dropped 8% within the first 11 days after purchase

67% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 26 days


Over 90% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 41 days

It has been 29 days since MM bought CME at 224.74. Currently trading at 204.35,

That is a decline of just over 9 percent.

Tim:)

[spikefader]

For those of you who like statistics,

Since 2001, the average MM closed out winning stock dropped 8% within the first 11 days after purchase

67% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 26 days


Over 90% of the winners reached their lowest price within the first 41 days

It has been 29 days since MM bought CME at 224.74. Currently trading at 204.35,

That is a decline of just over 9 percent.

Tim:) Nice stats. Based on these, one would be unwise not to look for a discount on Mr.Market's entry price. Buying weakness gives you an edge. You just need patience!

[spikefader]

CMN split and how it affects the 50% entry.
New chart below.

[yaoyao]

How does your bear bias affect your trades here?

[spikefader]

How does your bear bias affect your trades here? For the 50% trades I’m not going to let my general market bias affect them. They don’t have stops, as originally designed, and I’ll let them ‘pan’ out over time. BUT, general market weakness may cause lower 50% retrace signals to occur for all of these trades. In spirit of cautiousness, I WILL retarget them where necessary – such as what NGPS did today. It broke the 100% retrace from my entry. So I’ll retarget that one based on the latest 50% signal. The new target lowers the profit, but it’s a logical thing to do imho.

And as far as other trades based on my own channel system with tight stops (eg. ACRG channel turn up entry) I will be more conservative I think. I will not be chasing channel turn ups, and I’ll take intraday entries based on bull flag/wedge breakouts, but rather stick to lower channel entries and double bottom/inverted SHS intraday entries. For shorts, I may increase my channel turn down and intraday bearish flag/wedge break entries more aggressively than if I had a bullish market bias. Seems the logical thing to do.

[spikefader]

MPX: Re this (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10757&postcount=25) entry, retargeting to 26.60 based on the new 50% signal.

[spikefader]

CME retarget re long here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11212&postcount=44)

New target is 235.15.

[spikefader]

NGPS re this (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11269&postcount=45)long retargeting to 33.85

[tokyojoeskid]

where would you put your stop at 19.95? Looks to me if this thing keeps falling and it cruises by 20 its going to 12.

[spikefader]

CMN long:
I'm not taking this entry, but this is the play. For the sake of the thread, I'll post this as a valid entry today at 22.08 with a target of 25.39.

[spikefader]

where would you put your stop at 19.95? Looks to me if this thing keeps falling and it cruises by 20 its going to 12. I take it you're speaking of NGPS. As per the system, I won't use stops for these system trades.

If you're asking me a logical place to put a stop if I used one, then I'd be putting it at 21.39, below today's low. Today's channel long and intraday inverted SHS sets up nicely for long opportunity. As far as my usual channel system, if it were to fail to hold 21.40 then I'd be stopped out at 21.39 and I'd not take it long again.

[noshadyldy]

I take it you're speaking of NGPS. As per the system, I won't use stops for these system trades.

If you're asking me a logical place to put a stop if I used one, then I'd be putting it at 21.39, below today's low. Today's channel long and intraday inverted SHS sets up nicely for long opportunity. As far as my usual channel system, if it were to fail to hold 21.40 then I'd be stopped out at 21.39 and I'd not take it long again.
Hi Spike,
Are you saying that if NGPS fails at 21.40 we should dump it and forget it? I've got a big loss to recoup. I bought in at 31.50. OUCH!

margie

[spikefader]

Hi Spike,
Are you saying that if NGPS fails at 21.40 we should dump it and forget it? I've got a big loss to recoup. I bought in at 31.50. OUCH!

margie Noshady, you misunderstood what I said. Apologies for any ambiguity on my part.

Let me make it clear. I am long NGPS from 33.49 and I am NOT using a stop for this position.

As said earlier in the thread, I will only close these 50% retrace trades at a target calculated by the last 50% retrace signal + 15%.

When I said, “…I’d be putting it at 21.39…” I was merely giving Tokyo the logical stop location I’d put a stop IF I weren’t trading this retrace system on Mr. Market’s Top 5 and IF I were using stops. But I’m NOT using stops, and won’t start now, since that was not my original plan. In my other thread I always use stops and am religious about them. And it’s just for this reason: trading without stops is dangerous and you open the door to significant downside. If you are trading without stops, then you must understand this.

Reading your words, “I've got a big loss to recoup. I bought in at 31.50. OUCH!” weighs heavily, and I truly hope that you are not unwisely positioned (size-wise) and not putting your eggs in one or a few baskets based on buy or sell recommendations posted on a forum such as this one. I trust you are not, and that your current loss is within tolerance of your overall trading plan. But if you ARE overcommitted or are relying on forum recommendations without a) doing your own due diligence and b) being prepared for the consequences, then please reconsider your trading strategy and reconsider the risk to which you are exposing your capital.

This applies to anyone reading this thread or any post made here at Mr. Market forums. If you cannot do a) or b) and sensibly manage your capital then don’t trade until you can.

Personally, I am diversified, I am not “putting my eggs in one NGPS basket”, the position size I have is sensible and well within limits, and what has happened to the position is not out of the scope of my original plan. I was fully prepared for any or all of these posted 50% retrace entries to drop in price and meander around, and perhaps even do as poorly as NGPS has done now. The overriding motive is to see the average of these entries be profitable. This 50% retrace system for Mr. Market picks has not been tested by anyone before, is in its infancy, and may be shown to be completely unprofitable in current market conditions. Anyone reading this thread from start to finish (and the thread titled “stops are for wimps” to which I refer to in this thread) should understand this, but if it hasn’t been clearly highlighted, then consider this post as an appropriate warning. :D

God bless you, Noshady and all readers, and may all your trades make you smile, win, lose or draw :)

[New-born baby]

NOshadylady,

If NGPS hits $6, will you still hold? By that time there would be no reason to sell. One might as well hold.

One of the men in my church has a stock once worth $80 share, now selling for $2.90. He has held hoping she'd come back. It happens to the best of stocks. AT&T ("the stock for widows and orphans") was $104 in 1998. Its an $18 stock now, and has been as low as $14. Oh, since 1998 it also had a 1:10 reverse split to boot, in effect making it a $1.80 stock. That's more pain than I want to handle.

That's why Spike says we ought to use stops, wimps or not. I'd rather lose 5% than 99% (like AT&T has done).

How low will NGPS go? Well if someone on this board is correct in saying that it effectively has 3 million new shares to dilute the profit with, you might take earnings and divide it by (number of shares +3 million) to calculate the p/e. Then figure that the p/e is going to be lower than the industry average, and that might give you a rough idea about where it will land. Then you can calculate if you can take that much/little pain.

It is not necessary to earn your money back by NGPS. All that counts is that you get your money back somehow.

Question: if you sold now and bought a Can paying 15%, how long before you are even again? If less than two years, I'd advise you to consider doing so.

It isn't any business of mine. Do as you see best. Just a suggestion about how you might work out of a tight place.

[billyjoe]

New-born,
I may have this wrong , but I believe AT&T was spun off into a bunch of smaller companies that still hold some value. I have an aunt that inherited AT&T stock that has been in the family since the 1920's passed down as each owner died without selling . She was complaining several years ago about the amount of paperwork. I guess you could write a book about AT&T, it's probably already been done.
billyjoe

[noshadyldy]

Two nicer fellas I don't think I'd find anywhere. You give so much of yourselves simply to help others. Consider yourselves cyberhugged. (and if either of you are ever a patient of mine, you will get my best!)

Now, when I said I've got a lot to recoup, I mean that it's more than I care to lose, not more than I can stand to lose. I'm like a dog with a bone; I just hate giving it up! And Yes, I did scale back to under half my original position back at the $25 mark. However, I certainly recognize that you, Spike, (and you too, NBB, for that matter) are far more educated and experienced in these matters than I. Having said that, when you speak, I listen up since You are more likely to be right. One thing I will say though about me, and this has played out numerous times, is that I get this feeling in my gut (not a donut this time) that I don't trust often enough. When I looked at the chart for NGPS i could see it fall down around 20 nothing flat (when it was up at $32) yet I didn't trust the feeling and went with the technical. :(
I do believe its a very good company and have no reason to think that eventually it wouldn't recoup (although I would be surprised if it hit it's prior high anytime soon at all), which is why I did a double take when I thought you said, you'd throw in the towel if it broke under $21something.
Knowing that there is so much that I don't know, I worried that I must be wrong.
Thanks again for all your help. I'll shut up now.

[New-born baby]

NOshadylady,

Thank you for your kind remarks. No doubt Spike, MrMarket, and all on this board agree with me: we want everyone here to make money with no losses! Unfortunately we are not always right, but I do feel comfortable offering Can advice because it is a great place to get back what one has lost.

Best to you and NGPS. And I should say that I was too lazy to figure out for you the projected bottom of this stock. Maybe I'll do that today . . . . . .

[spikefader]

Thanks noshady. Cyberhug backatcha. I know exactly what you mean about that gut feel about taking action or not, and I know I've struggled with it in the past, and still do to less of a degree. The hard thing is distinguishing it from a) just plain old fear of the unknown and b) fear based on a logical and perceptable reason.

Maybe the answer is making that gut feeling accountable in some way, so that one could appropriately respond to it and avoid the errors based purely on unreasoned emotion/fear of unknown.

Bottom line I guess is that there will always be a surprise or unexpected move in a position we hold and that we're going to feel negatively about it. The only thing we can do is to control the things we CAN control, and give the stress and negative 20/20 hindsight thoughts to the big fella upstairs to handle for us. Worrying about it isn't productive, in fact, its destructive to our states of well-being.

The only thing we can do is contemplate all potential risk, imagine the likely emotions during the ride and pass on the trade if it's going to ruin our sleep or affect our state of well-being. The reality of this is that if one is trading without stops the potential 'worst case scenario' scares the bajingies out of me, and if I pondered that deeply enough I'd probably choose never to trade without stops ever again. This is exactly the reason I love stops. I'm setting the boundaries, I'm in control of my risk, and not leaving it up to Mr. Market (and I don't mean Ernie).

New-born is spot on. I want everyone on this forum to make money and minimize the losses - especially if I post a chart and rec it only to see the dumb thing make me look stoopid :D But you know what? Another desire of mine is that everyone rate their level of success not on a + or - profit, but rather whether they have made a logical plan within their tolerance limits, and stuck to that plan. That's a true measure of success in my book. Good fortune, and dumb-luck timing, in the face of knuckle-headed foolishness, can make money in the market if one happens to be lucky enough. But to demonstrate you made money because you were smart, disciplined, patient, emotionally in control, systematic, accountable and resourceful.....now that's something worthy of respect and admiration.

[spikefader]

Mr. Market's latest top five list is here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12083&postcount=1)

ACRG.OB
ARLP
FRD
IAIA
IIG

I'll post some charts on the 50% retrace locations later.

I'll note that ACRG is long from 3.06 as per channel turn up entry posted earlier in the thread here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10941&postcount=38) .

[spikefader]

ARLP has a 50% retrace entry today off the daily, and good spot down near intraday S2. System long from 70.02 or anything under 70.25 and target 70.25 + 15% = 80.79

EDIT: Note that I've already done ARLP 50% play successfully :D

[bec1nj]

Spikefader-Just want to thank you for your great posts.
Bruce

[spikefader]

Spikefader-Just want to thank you for your great posts.
Bruce
You're welcome, and thanks for the thanks. :D

[spikefader]

ACRG retarget to 3.85

[noshadyldy]

did you see that BEAUTIFUL 2 week reverse head & shoulders pattern with the right shoulder just a tad deeper????????????????

[noshadyldy]

oh by the way, i love the bear! I'm a critter lover for sure!

[New-born baby]

Jiesen,

Well, if you missed NGPS a couple of days ago at 21.34, you may get it here in the last hour. It's droppppiiiiinnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggggggggggg !

Volume is LOW today, less than half a million shares. Been running 2-3 million per day. What does that mean?

[spikefader]

What an example!
This is one of Mr.M's current Top 5.

[New-born baby]

Spike,

I'll expect you to post a "hot pick of the day" tomorrow that's as easy as 1-2-3.

[spikefader]

did you see that BEAUTIFUL 2 week reverse head & shoulders pattern with the right shoulder just a tad deeper????????????????
Post what you're seeing, cuz I'm struggling to pick it out.

[spikefader]

oh by the way, i love the bear! I'm a critter lover for sure!
:) Ya, critters are cute. Not sure how bears come to have tongues this long...maybe to get the honey out? lol

[spikefader]

Spike,

I'll expect you to post a "hot pick of the day" tomorrow that's as easy as 1-2-3.
lol oh ya, I've got 'em on a string. No prob :D
I failed to set an alarm for IIG otherwise I would have posted it!
IIC, it's close enough to your name, how come you didn't spot it! :D

[Thomrich]

Jiesen,

Well, if you missed NGPS a couple of days ago at 21.34, you may get it here in the last hour. It's droppppiiiiinnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggggggggggg !

Volume is LOW today, less than half a million shares. Been running 2-3 million per day. What does that mean?


I wish I knew,Im tepted to buy here also,but SWIR has me paralyzed.BTW short interest declined 17% in Jan on NGPS,not sure if thats a good sign.
Any help Spike,

cordially Tom

[jiesen]

Jiesen,

Well, if you missed NGPS a couple of days ago at 21.34, you may get it here in the last hour. It's droppppiiiiinnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggggggggggggggg !

Volume is LOW today, less than half a million shares. Been running 2-3 million per day. What does that mean?

yep, yep. got it already at 21.5... sometimes crappy markets give us a lucky break!

[New-born baby]

Tom,

NGPS jumped up today. Nice day to get out of the way of that knife.

If short interest declines, that just means buyers left the market.

[noshadyldy]

well today was a bummer of a fakeout!! I got lured back in only to have it sink below my entry. CRAP!!! sure do wish i had gotten into DCAI instead.

[spikefader]

Re this trade (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11758&postcount=112) for MPX. (Long 25.90)

The target (retarget) was hit today. Out at 26.60 for +.70 or 2.7% - not huge, but it's stickin with the rules.

[spikefader]

LOL Webs.

See this entry (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11703&postcount=109) we were contemplating. Today was just shy of the 15% target already. These 50% entries do ok :D

[spikefader]

Thread summary - all trades.

Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 target 33.85
CME at 210.60 target 210.81
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.05
ACRG at 3.06 target 3.50 (channel turn down, so justify an exit tomorrow)
BSTE at 57.28 target 65.87 retarget 62.78
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79

All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%

IIG (not taken) nets 15% in 2 days! http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=12631&postcount=133 (http://showpost.php?p=12631&postcount=133)
CMN (not taken) just shy today of it's 15% :D
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11703&postcount=109

(http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11703&postcount=109) Total profit 21.3% in 4 trades.
Counting IIG it's 36.5% in 5 trades.
Counting CMN it's 51.5% in 6 trades.

On the whole, the thread is showing that trading the 50% entries is a nicely profitable venture. No losses yet, and MCRI will be the first one and will only be -3.2% whenever the target is hit.

Go the 50%s! :D

[New-born baby]

Spike,

Beautiful. Just simply beautiful work. Thank you so much.

[noshadyldy]

You're the best, Spike!

Ngps looks better too. Alot of mention of it on some other boards as well. (while not a top 5, I also like HURC)

[Gatorman]

Spike:
Glad to see you lost the bear suit. Think we all like you more as a Bull!

[spikefader]

MCRI: Re this entry, http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11211&postcount=43

retarget was 34.16 based on lower 50% signals. So out at 34.16 this morning for -3.2%. The system's first loser out of 7 completed trades. 6 from 7 for 85% strike rate - not bad.

System profit total to date (total cumulative % assuming all signals) is 48.3%.

[spikefader]

ACRG 50% entry for those interested. Long 3.30, target 15% or 3.80.

[spikefader]

Based on that 50% signal for ACRG, and my own bullish market stance, I'll retarget the open ACRG position to 3.80.

[spikefader]

Re this BSTE long (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11275&postcount=49), target (retargetted from original 65.87 to 62.78) was hit today. So out for +$5.50 or +9.6% in only 4 weeks. Not too shabby :D

[spikefader]

Thread summary - all trades.

Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
CME at 210.60 retarget 210.81
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.05
ACRG at 3.06 retarget 3.80
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79
ACRG at 3.30 target 3.80

All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16 -3.2%
IIG (not taken) nets 15% in 2 days!
CMN (not taken) nets 15%
BSTE at 57.28 retarget 62.78 + 9.6%

Total system profit 57.7% in 8 trades. Average is 7.21% per trade.

[New-born baby]

Spike,

This is a great thread! Thank you.

[jiesen]

Spike,

This is a great thread! Thank you.

holy cow, Spike- what great results!

[spikefader]

Thanks guys. Results look good enough to put faith in :D

[spikefader]

Re CME long here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11212&postcount=44
Original target of 242.19 was retargetted to 210.81 due to lower 50% signal given after entry. This new target was met today, so closing the position for a tiny gain of .21c or .1%. But better than a loss :D

[canaveraldan]

I bought into CME at 195. I'm a little woried about its rise on lowering volumn. I am hoping to ride it up to 220. Do you have any words of caution?

Thanks
Dan

[spikefader]

I bought into CME at 195. I'm a little woried about its rise on lowering volumn. I am hoping to ride it up to 220. Do you have any words of caution?

Thanks
DanNo, I think you're good to 225 (upper channel from the 183.50 low). Channel turn up from 215.78 is a bullish thing. Only resistance I see is 217.50 (channel from the top). Hopefully it'll bust and expand that channel for you. If it doesn't and the channel resists, I'd hop off it. Good luck with it.

[spikefader]

The FRD 50% retrace is 12.79 - almost hit it this morning. If she comes down to it that will be a great entry point.

[spikefader]

ACRG retargeted to 3.50 based on new 50% signal.

[grebnet]

Wow yesterdays sale at 15.75 was better than I thought. I reentered today at 13.20. Ill either look like a genius or an absolute fool. (at least in my own mind)

[spikefader]

OK folks. Another 50% entry today.
Long FRD 12.50, targeting 14.71.

[Runner]

Nice entry Spike, got it on my screen but missed best entry point!!

[Runner]

http://img159.exs.cx/img159/4756/frd8mh.png

Possible entry coming

[Runner]

The Spread is crazy on FRD

[Runner]

Spike what ya think of FRD? Looking to see if it finds support around 11.30-11.60 area. If that does not hold looking @ 50dma around 10.81 or possible gap support. I think FRD reports earnings soon, might someone know something?

[Runner]

http://img158.exs.cx/img158/7733/frd2sq.png
FRD

[spikefader]

Spike what ya think of FRD? Looking to see if it finds support around 11.30-11.60 area. If that does not hold looking @ 50dma around 10.81 or possible gap support. I think FRD reports earnings soon, might someone know something?I like it long from current levels. Nice candle on Fri at good vol by price.

[spikefader]

Another great result for the thread. ACRG 3.50 target hit yesterday. :D
Closed both positions for +14.4% and +6%.

Thread summary - all trades.
Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.05
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79
FRD long 12.50, targeting 14.71

All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16 -3.2%
IIG +15%
CMN +15%
BSTE at 57.28 retarget 62.78 + 9.6%
CME at 210.60 retarget 210.81 +.1%
ACRG at 3.06 retarget 3.50 +14.4%
ACRG at 3.30 target 3.50 +6%

Total system profit 78.2% in 11 trades. Average is 7.1% per trade.

[spikefader]

FRD almost got there, but for all those that missed the entry, it comes back for another bite at the cherry!

[billyjoe]

Spike,
Could you give us a refresher course on 50% retrace support to target MM's 15% gain. I lost you somewhere along the line. I can recognize the basic chart patterns, but overall am not good on technicals. Thanks.
billyjoe

[spikefader]

Sure Billyjoe.

I should mention up front that this thread started out as something other than the 50% entries, and it wasn't until post 7 here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9452&postcount=7 that I decided to trade the 50% system, after discussion in another thread. Since then this thread has virtually been dedicated to the 50% system. I think I'll keep it that way too.

No rocket science here. Just a matter or finding a significant low anywhere on the chart and extend the FIB to the top. If price comes back to the 50% there's your entry. Target 15% from your entry. No stops. If price falls to a lower 50% entry point retarget 15% from wherever that point is. Hold for your 15% or til the company goes broke :D Obviously you want to diversify and not put all eggs in one basket. Take every signal regardless of market conditions. It's worked well so far and it's worth trading in my opinion. I like the retarget condition that forces you to lower your target if price action weakens.

[New-born baby]

Spike,

I really like your system, and I want to trade it. Thanks for posting.

I guess I'd have to say I think you may know a little something about the market . . . .

BPT: you said $59, or better. It hit $64 today.
FRO: nice call on the channel long day. $44 to $49 in four days is nice!

Thank you so much!

[billyjoe]

Thanks Spike,

Great quote "No rocket science here. Just a matter of finding a significant low anywhere on the chart and extend the FIB to the top. If price comes back to the 50%, there's your entry. Target 15% from your entry. No stops. If price falls to a lower 50% entry point, retarget 15% from wherever that point is.Hold for your 15% or til the company goes broke."


I like this strategy. If you'd post it on IBD forums, I think they'd have a meltdown. That wouldn't be a nice thing to do, would it?


billyjoe

[spikefader]

Spike,

I really like your system, and I want to trade it. Thanks for posting.

I guess I'd have to say I think you may know a little something about the market . . . .

BPT: you said $59, or better. It hit $64 today.
FRO: nice call on the channel long day. $44 to $49 in four days is nice!

Thank you so much!
Hey, you're welcome :D And thanks. I must say Kudos to Mr.Market for his "Top 5" picks too! Every one of these 50%ers is with the Top 5 of the day, and so this system may well be an utter failure without his legendary model!

Ya, BPT continues to impress. What a lovely move the last 4 weeks!

[spikefader]

Thanks Spike,

I like this strategy. If you'd post it on IBD forums, I think they'd have a meltdown. That wouldn't be a nice thing to do, would it?

billyjoe
:) Ya, we better keep it a secret then lol

[New-born baby]

Ya, BPT continues to impress. What a lovely move the last 4 weeks!

Spike,

If you were a REAL friend you would have MADE me buy BPT. (lol)
I still don't see what the attraction is. Perhaps some insider is buying shares.

[spikefader]

Spike,

If you were a REAL friend you would have MADE me buy BPT. (lol)
I still don't see what the attraction is. Perhaps some insider is buying shares.hehe Ya, well you were pretty hesitant! :D

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
It would appear to me that FRD has touched 50% retrace from 6.00 today at 11.30.

Also is at 50sma according to stockcharts.

On top of that,looks to be at support by significant volume on a 6mo chart.

Im going all in on this in my IRA,looking for that target of 14.75 or better.

wish me luck,
cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
It would appear to me that FRD has touched 50% retrace from 6.00 today at 11.30.

Also is at 50sma according to stockcharts.

On top of that,looks to be at support by significant volume on a 6mo chart.

Im going all in on this in my IRA,looking for that target of 14.75 or better.

wish me luck,
cordially Tom

Also appears to be a 2.6% div coming next week.

[Thomrich]

Also appears to be a 2.6% div coming next week.

Sorry ,
That was last month,payout is next week.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
...FRD has touched 50% retrace from 6.00 today at 11.30...Im going all in on this in my IRA,looking for that target of 14.75 or better.
wish me luck,
cordially Tom
Good luck!

[noshadyldy]

Thanks to Stenzrob i was directed to a marketwatch article (#832 post on his board) in which Navelier posted NGPS as a January buy!!!! hmmmmmmm

[noshadyldy]

""Greetings Spike,
...FRD has touched 50% retrace from 6.00 today at 11.30...Im going all in on this in my IRA,looking for that target of 14.75 or better.
wish me luck,
cordially Tom""


Spike and Tom, if I'm doing stockcharts right, I see the bottom channel (over two months) to be $10, which it hit twice today and so far bounced up nicely. If it ends this way today, channel long, right??? Am I seeing this right, Spike?
Thanks.

[spikefader]

Yep, you're seeing that perfectly.

[Thomrich]

""Greetings Spike,
...FRD has touched 50% retrace from 6.00 today at 11.30...Im going all in on this in my IRA,looking for that target of 14.75 or better.
wish me luck,
cordially Tom""


Spike and Tom, if I'm doing stockcharts right, I see the bottom channel (over two months) to be $10, which it hit twice today and so far bounced up nicely. If it ends this way today, channel long, right??? Am I seeing this right, Spike?
Thanks.

Greetings,
Ill defer to Spike on that one,Im thankful my order at 11.30 didnt get filled friday.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
Well Im admitting here and now I know zero about TA.What I thought was support for both NGPS at 19.75 and FRD at 11.30 are toast.

Luckily none of my orders filled last week.

Definitely sticking to canroys for now until I know what Im doing.

Hope others are doing well on the short side.

cordially Tom

[noshadyldy]

UNBELIEVABLE day out there today. Downright spooky!

looks like FRD was still a falling knife. you'd think NGPS would've taught us not to try to catch'em. I don't care what retracement it is, I'm waiting for a turn up in price.

[New-born baby]

UNBELIEVABLE day out there today. Downright spooky!

looks like FRD was still a falling knife. you'd think NGPS would've taught us not to try to catch'em. I don't care what retracement it is, I'm waiting for a turn up in price.

FRD=$9.25
NGPS=$18.55 and looking more like ESMC every day.

Spike:

Looks like a channel long on OFG tomorrow? $27.20 now.

[yaoyao]

Well, I'm not as lucky as Thomrich. My order didn't get filled at 11.20 last week, but got filled today. Yeah, it was a GTC order. Well, I still like its fundamental, hope it will bounce back soon.

[noshadyldy]

Re: Why no talk about the insiders?
by: seer_two (http://profiles.yahoo.com/seer_two/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7079886%26tid=frd% 26sid=7079886%26mid=1948&lg=us) 02/22/05 04:48 pm
Msg: 1948 of 1958
Mr. Crow made himself a fine chunk of Tezas sized change by selling a few shares. As did the VP. Note the options exercisable next year to replace them at $3.13.

Anyone getting a clue yet?


Ok, I picked this off the yahoo FRD board. What do you think? Also, where can I find this information myself? (I don't do options, don't know anything about them.)

[spikefader]

Looks like a channel long on OFG tomorrow? $27.20 now.
Yep, approaching a good channel to watch for a long. On the weekly 26.50ish looks the zone currently.

[Thomrich]

Re: Why no talk about the insiders?
by: seer_two (http://profiles.yahoo.com/seer_two/?.src=prf&.done=http%3a//finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs%3f.mm=FN%26action=m%26board=7079886%26tid=frd% 26sid=7079886%26mid=1948&lg=us) 02/22/05 04:48 pm
Msg: 1948 of 1958
Mr. Crow made himself a fine chunk of Tezas sized change by selling a few shares. As did the VP. Note the options exercisable next year to replace them at $3.13.

Anyone getting a clue yet?


Ok, I picked this off the yahoo FRD board. What do you think? Also, where can I find this information myself? (I don't do options, don't know anything about them.)

http://www.form4oracle.com/company?cik=0000039092&ticker=frd

Here you go NSL,its somewhat late with info.By the time its on the site,the stock is already been worked over.At least it explains the drop.

DHB
NGPS
FRD

All have in common insider sales that absolutely murder a rally.I guess the logical thing to do is go with the flow and short as soon as you can.I need to get with a broker that is short friendly.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

It's 50% retrace time for IIG today! 18.87 is the 50%, but waited and got a discount :D

Long 18.14, targeting 18.87+15% = $21.70.

[spikefader]

FRD forced retarget based on new 50% signal from the move from 4.50 to 16.56. New target now 12.13, which will be a 2.96% loss on the position.

This will only be the 2nd loss out of 12 system trades.

ARLP looking to make up for this though. It is looking particularly bullish with a wedge forming while consolidating above nice volume by price support. Threatening a wedge break today.

[spikefader]

UPDATE on positions:

System anticipating 2 more 15% wins soon, with 1 break even if we're lucky, 1 small 3% loss, and IIC disaster will be happy to get out with -11% if she strengthens. But as a system, it is still shining and it's hard not to feel a sense of pride when those positive targets get hit :D

More detail:

IIG long at 18.14: getting a hammering. Retargeting lower, based on lower 50% retrace. New target is 16.10, which will be a loss of about 11 percent on the position. The first IIG position you will recall made 15% very quickly.

NGPS long at 33.49. After some funny poetry by noshadylady NGPS perked up and showed it's first real bullish pattern for the year - a big fat bull flag late in the day today. We'll be happy to take break even :D

CWTR long at 28.18 target 32.05; triangle breakout today that looks set to take the position to it's 15% target!

ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79: triangle breakout has it shooting for the sky toward its 15%.

FRD long 12.50, retargetted to -2.96% no is showing promise, but we won't profit from it.

[spikefader]

Another system result today!

ARLP hit its 15.4% profit target of 80.79 this morning :D

Total system profit 93.6% in 12 trades.
Average is 7.8% per trade.
Mr. Market's Top 5s are huge!!!!!


Thread summary - all trades.
Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.05
FRD long 12.50, targeting 12.13
IIG Long 18.14, retarget 16.10 (the system's worst performer to date)

All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16 -3.2%
IIG +15%
CMN +15%
BSTE at 57.28 retarget 62.78 + 9.6%
CME at 210.60 retarget 210.81 +.1%
ACRG at 3.06 retarget 3.50 +14.4%
ACRG at 3.30 target 3.50 +6%
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79 +15.4%

___________________________________

[RL]

Fantastic Great Work Spike

[noshadyldy]

If omni clear 2- 2.05, it could be a run away.
MACD turning up nice, OBV looking better, barchart direction turning.
JMO though.
spike?

[New-born baby]

Spike,

What a beautiful system you and the Huge One have going here! MM, when's the next pick?

[spikefader]

If omni clear 2- 2.05, it could be a run away.
MACD turning up nice, OBV looking better, barchart direction turning.
JMO though.
spike?OMNI weekly looks omin - ous! :D I'd not trade that one due to the weekly bearish channel break in Jan this year.

[noshadyldy]

oops! posted on the other spike thread. so here's a synopsis.

RATS RATS RATS RATS!!!!!!! It went up 33% today with me out running errands!
It may be a crappy stock but I still think it's gonna float when the tide rises.

[spikefader]

YET ANOTHER system result today!

CWTR long from here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11209&postcount=42) (8 weeks ago) hit its 15% profit target of 32.51 this morning :D

Total system profit 109% in 13 trades.
Average is 8.38% per trade.

******************************************
Thread summary - all trades.
Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
FRD long 12.50, targeting 12.13
IIG Long 18.14, retarget 16.10 (the system's worst performer to date)
All previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16 -3.2%
IIG +15%
CMN +15%
BSTE at 57.28 retarget 62.78 + 9.6%
CME at 210.60 retarget 210.81 +.1%
ACRG at 3.06 retarget 3.50 +14.4%
ACRG at 3.30 target 3.50 +6%
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79 +15.4%
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.51 +15.4%
___________________________________

[billyjoe]

Spike,

This is a great thread. Thanks for your work. In the case of IIG I believe it will prove to be an Enron or World Com situation on a much smaller scale. Therefor, it shouldn't be used in compiling the returns in the swing trading portfolio. It also appears in one of my screens, but will be thrown out in compiling my data on gains after earnings announcements. This is just my opinion, time will tell . The truth will come out.

billyjoe

[dmk112]

Spike, did you long FRD at 12.50 and your target is 12.13? did you mean to say short?

[spikefader]

Spike,
This is a great thread. Thanks for your work. In the case of IIG I believe it will prove to be an Enron or World Com situation on a much smaller scale. Therefor, it shouldn't be used in compiling the returns in the swing trading portfolio. It also appears in one of my screens, but will be thrown out in compiling my data on gains after earnings announcements. This is just my opinion, time will tell . The truth will come out.

billyjoeThanks for the feedback, Billyjoe! And the info on IIG. That's a worry.

[spikefader]

Spike, did you long FRD at 12.50 and your target is 12.13? did you mean to say short?No, I meant long. It just dropped to another 50% retracement zone and forced me to retarget. In FRD's case, and IIG's, their respective retargets are now going to be losses. But that's OK, because the system has had so many winners! :-)

[New-born baby]

Spike,

Great thread! And I am hopeful for NGPS that tomorrow she shows some real life. Volume has been very, very low of late. Earnings out, and maybe she'll start climbing for you.

[dmk112]

Oh ok I see! Well great track record anyway... What's the next pick?

[spikefader]

Oh ok I see! Well great track record anyway... What's the next pick?Thanks.

When's next pick? Well now that you mention it :D..............

ARLP gives another 50% fib retrace entry today at 73.37. Target is 84.38. Bargain hunters can snatch it up at a lower price right here at 72.38, which is what I'm doing.

Go the FIBS!

[spikefader]

CWTR gives 50% retrace entry today at 29.62. Target is 34.06.

[spikefader]

Just realized CWTR isn't on the latest Top 5 list, but the veteran's day top 5 list here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=8865&postcount=1
I still really like the chart though, and this 50% retrace seems a good one. I'll keep it in if there are no objections :D

OPEN TRADES UPDATE:

Current open trades:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85
FRD long 12.50, targeting 12.13
IIG Long 18.14, retarget 16.10 (the system's worst performer to date)
ARLP long 73.37. Target is 84.38
CWTR long 29.62. Target is 34.06.

[New-born baby]

Spike,

Is CWTR worth a long right now?

FRD: this horrible stock just keeps diving! I haven't studied it out, but it is very sick, and I wonder if it isn't like BillyJoe was speaking about IIG and Enron. It seems to drop .50-.75 per day. If it weren't for IIG and FRD, this system that you've devised would be just about perfect! I even think NGPS is going to turn around for you.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Is CWTR worth a long right now?

FRD: this horrible stock just keeps diving! I haven't studied it out, but it is very sick, and I wonder if it isn't like BillyJoe was speaking about IIG and Enron. It seems to drop .50-.75 per day. If it weren't for IIG and FRD, this system that you've devised would be just about perfect! I even think NGPS is going to turn around for you.
I reckon it is. The chart is very similar to that of ARLP's. Statistically, the system's great % win numbers put the odds in favor of a successful trade for a stock with a chart similar to any of the Top 5s.

That's actually an interesting concept right there: i.e. similar charts. I think if we can find other charts out there that are strikingly similar to any of the current Top 5, it might be worth watching them to see their performance relative to the system. A lot of work though to flip through charts in the hunt.

But back to your point about the poor performers, I have been giving some thought to a stop tucked under the full 100% retrace zone of the signal given. So that would be entering the long at the 50, and stopping at at say 101% full retrace. If I did that with IIG, I'd be stopped out already for a 40% loss on that trade, which brings the system numbers down to average trade win of 4.9% each position, effectively cutting the percentages in half. Still positive numbers, and it gives you an escape for any stock that will go to zero and wipe out the full position or spend an eternity in the abyss ahold of trading capital that could otherwise be used elsewhere. But I think I may be tempted to risk the 60% of the position that's left in IIG to see a bounce to the retarget for a loss of 11%, saving 29% loss. So the question is is it worth risking 60% to save 29% on a stock that's tanking. It seems unlikely that I would actually, and probably would just take the hit.

Anyone got input on that generally? Or on the 101% auto hard stop?

[Hany]

Oh my lord, FRD is diving .......

What the heck is wrong with this stock?

I'm so sure that the earnings of this stock will be so good when they come out in a couple of months but can some insiders selling some stock cause this stock to tumble like this?

FRD, I hate you.

[spikefader]

:) Hany.

I've examined FRD closely and come to the conclusion it's acting relatively normally, as far as the rollercoaster ride the stock market usually delivers :D

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
I was considering a modification to the system,using the 50% as an initial signal,and put the stop at 68%,to avoid possible dead ends.

In theory a healthy stock should bounce from 50%?If it continues to fall it may be not so healthy?I realise some may retrace to 68%,and then bounce,but Im not sure weve seen one yet in the system?

just an idea.

cordially Tom

[noshadyldy]

I have a few thoughts on this. I like the idea of a stop "somewhere" and 68% seems reasonable. Reentry can always happen later to take back the money. Of course this can always be an individual thing too. 101% seems mighty "hive inducing" to me. We are also free to make up our own retracement number, for example a split between the two - 80%.

Also, and I apologize if this has been addressed, but are we waiting for a "buy" signal with these 50% pullbacks or just that they are at 50%. NGPS proved to be a falling knife. If that's what's happening, then how about a "buy" signal after 50% pullback? (channel long, break in downtrend, goodlooking oscillators or whatever.)
Just my 2Cents worth.

[spikefader]

OK, interesting suggestions, but let's not forget that the system is working fantastically, so let's not get too carried away with tweaking it.

I'll go back and double check price movement after the entries, but my initial reaction to the 68% stop is I don't like it. I think it's going to lead to a proportion of stop outs that will turn the system into an unprofitable one. This is ground we've covered before in another thread.

Remember, with the current average of 8% win per trade, the system can be profitable even in the unlikely event that 1 out of 13 stocks trades gets wiped out. And really, what are the chances that 7% of total system trades are going to zero? We are talking stocks that fit Mr. Market's model and are showing earnings, right? So it's very rare that we will see big unanticipated fundamental changes, but at the same time, we're expecting it's possible, like BEL for example. So diversification is key. If you're going to trade this system, it's not for a trader committing a huge amount of capital to a random one of the many signals; it is for a trader prepared to trade every signal, to commit a chunk of capital to, and use only 10%-20% of that total system capital with each signal. This way you have the protective edge of diversification.

The way the system stands now, even in the cruddy event that IIG or FRD were to goes to zero, the system will only then be back to a break even system. If they end up going to their current targets, that will be -14% for those two trades, with a system total of +95% after 15 trades, and an average of 6.3%, which is still very nice. In fact, it's awesome. Since this system started in late Nov 04 the S&P500 is up only 2.9%. Currently the system averages out to +8.4%, virtually threefold better than market performance! This is why I don't want to throw in tight stops!

[dmk112]

FRD - This is a good stock I don't know what is going on.... although the whole steel sector is getting hit...inluding SIM....eeeeeeyyyyy

[spikefader]

Also, and I apologize if this has been addressed, but are we waiting for a "buy" signal with these 50% pullbacks or just that they are at 50%. NGPS proved to be a falling knife. If that's what's happening, then how about a "buy" signal after 50% pullback? (channel long, break in downtrend, goodlooking oscillators or whatever.)
Just my 2Cents worth.
The 50% IS the entry point. You'll notice that I held off several entries and got an intraday discount, but the target is always calculated as 15% on top of the 50% number. This is how some of the positions generated slightly over 15% - due to the lower entries taken.

Yes, NGPS was a falling knife. And it sucks. But, it's OK. I can accept it. The system is robust enough to live through them - at least do date it is. Time will tell if it continues to perform. And time will tell how this system does in a bear market.

But for now, I'm prepared to say ces la vis about NGPS.

Yep, it's frustrating to watch it. Yep, wouldn't it be great if there's a system that removes those knives. Yep, I'm dreaming to think it's possible. Fact is, knives and shocks, and speed bumps, and disappointments will happen in this life. That is life. Reminds me of the Serenity Prayer:

"God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change;
the courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference."

The knives we can't change,
the courage is changing how I feel about the knives,
and the wisdom is knowing that diversifying Mr. Market's model effectively deals with the knives to still remain profitable.

I'm ranting now, so I'll zip it. :D

[grebnet]

I traded FRD quite a bit and am now all out. Their last statement ending 12/31 had a few worrisome statements :

1.Coil product segment sales increased approximately $8,859,000 during the 2004 quarter. This increase was related primarily to an increase in the average per ton selling price of approximately 136%. Tons shipped declined from approximately 38,000 tons in the 2003 quarter to 27,000 tons in the 2004 quarter

2.Tubular product segment sales increased approximately $9,597,000 during the 2004 quarter. This increase primarily resulted from an approximate 72% increase in the average per ton selling price. Tons shipped remained relatively constant during both quarters at approximately 35,000 tons

heres the link
http://biz.yahoo.com/e/050214/frd10-q.html

My concern was there growth is all pricing not production growth.

They also discuss that some of their suppliers are troublesome.

the next statement release will set the course.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Spike,
I look forward to your post daily.

As the Scripture says "A double minded man is unstable in all ways".

I would appreciate your comment on a few topics.

On turtletraders site they do not reccomend buying dips,such as fib retraces,as they feel a drop of 50% warrants possible change in trend.Since I am in Limbo between brokers,Ive been reading alot on TTs site.The more I read,the less I feel I can make a decent return in the market.After reading the Zerosum article,it appears the market will eventually take away profits if trading is continued,unless you have a distiguisable edge from the masses.

In your opinion,someone like myself,with limited chart abilities,quick trigger buys and sells ,with poor timing,and a fear of losing capital,am I in the wrong gameIYO?

If you were to pick an investment that required little maintenance,without the emotional highs and lows that are involved in trading stocks,what would be your preference?

I find myself restless from the fear of taking a position,to the fear of that position falling,thinking its not alotof fun watching the market constantly,with absolutely zero control over price action.

In short ,what are thet odds of someone beating the market?

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings Again,
Warren Buffetts comment that "A chart is the most important thing to have,if you run out of toilet paper."kind of struck me off guard.

I realise Buffett is not really a buy and hold investor that everyone thinks he is,what is your opinion ,if any of his investing strategy?obviously its worked so far.

As far as my future trading strategy,I am thinking of moving from CANROYS to US based trusts,
Money seems to be flowing there,since Canada is taking 15% of dist.'

PBT ,BPT,ang HGT all on my screen if I decide to trade.

cordially Tom

[dmk112]

Spike,

Just saw the chart on CWTR, and it retraced to 61.8% it looks like. Was that the proper entry point?

[dmk112]

Spike,

Another Q, I'm really getting interested with this Fib stuff!!

Take a look at TOPT, was it a buy when it hit the 62.8 retrace?

[spikefader]

Greetings Spike,
I look forward to your post daily.
........turtletraders site they do not reccomend buying dips,such as fib retraces,as they feel a drop of 50% warrants possible change in trend....the more I read, the less I feel I can make a decent return in the market. After reading the Zerosum article,it appears the market will eventually take away profits if trading is continued,unless you have a distiguisable edge from the masses.

In your opinion,someone like myself,with limited chart abilities,quick trigger buys and sells ,with poor timing,and a fear of losing capital,am I in the wrong gameIYO?

If you were to pick an investment that required little maintenance,without the emotional highs and lows that are involved in trading stocks,what would be your preference?

I find myself restless from the fear of taking a position,to the fear of that position falling,thinking its not alotof fun watching the market constantly,with absolutely zero control over price action.

In short ,what are thet odds of someone beating the market?

cordially Tom
Hey Thomrich. Thanks. They don't recommend buying dips? Well, what can I say about that one? :D

Generally speaking, I think dip buying is a good thing and an edge to be exploited. But I don't think that for every stock, and I need to clarify that statement. Leaving the Mr.Market 50% system aside for a minute (since that is a very unique system, dependant wholly on Mr. Market's model and therefore not indicative of general dip or 50% retrace buying), let's just think about dips and where they fit into a change in trend. If a dip is to a channel, or other point of great support, then it's a great time to buy. But if a dip breaks a channel or price support then it's a bad time to buy. This is why it's so important to know where your stock fits into its larger trend. A channel is one way to measure a trend, and I use them, and they work for me. There are other trend defining indicators out there, and I'm sure if used wisely they work too. The secret isn't a magic indicator, but rather how you use those indicators relative to your routine/system/practice, in addition to your risk reward and diversification strategy.

I've not read much of TT stuff, but if it's hurting your psyche and confidence, then perhaps it would be wise to quit reading it :D ~jk~ seriously though, whatever is happening, it might not be a bad thing. Sometimes things have to get worse before they can get better. Perhaps the foundations have to be demolished and replaced with bigger more reliable ones. I think as long as those foundations contain the principles of diversification and/or sensible risk and money management and logical targeting rules then they are good ones. As far as indicators, methods of timing and triggering go, it matters less of what those methods actually are, and more of whether they fit your personality and style to the point of feeling/seeing/accounting for a positive potential. If something has potential, then combining that potential with a disciplined strategy (that embraces the foundations I mentioned above) is the precursor or catalyst to not only identifying potentially wonderful trades, but also handing you a mathematically definable method of timing your entry to make the most of the potential you see. Something might have great fundamental potential at any general point in time, but market forces and technicals are such that actually nailing a well-timed entry is near impossible. And further, if it wasn't for your protective risk/money management, you'd be forever stopping out, or consistently become a bag holder. You see, the edge we all seek doesn't take the form of a single fantastic indicator or screening tool, or combination of them, but it DOES take the form of absolute control over the things we CAN control within ourselves, within limits we define, accepting that it is always speculation, with no guarantees, no safety nets but for the ones we set for ourselves. The market is brutal, can destroy portfolios, and it will ALWAYS be so. How can we ever feel confident that a bull market is going to save our butts? If anything taught us this lesson, 9/11 did. Life is so fragile, and so unpredictable, and wonderfully spontaneous, and terrifyingly vulnerable that I'm tempted to say that if we all had our heads screwed on right we'd never have the courage to speculate in the market at all :D But I'm an optimist by nature and believe the glass is half full. I have faith that, among other things, there is light after darkness. I believe in my potential to do smart things and the certainty of blessings. I like a challenge. I believe in the market. I believe in me. :D For these reasons, I think I'll always be a speculator and buy into weakness at smart points.

To answer your question, are you in the wrong game? I don't think you're in the wrong game, as long as you know the rules of the game, remember that there is a loser in the game, that the big fish eat little fish, and if you're going to be a little fish, then you've got to learn how to and when to move out of the way of the jagged teeth and deep bellies, or if you don't move, that like a chess game, a pawn can be sacrificed without hurting your chances of reaching checkmate in your favor. ELN was a big fat dangerous short shark. I saw the short potential in the chart, but didn't get the timing right, and thankfully my methods kept me away from shark feeding time completely. Was that luck? Maybe. Did if have something to do with my 'system'? I'm very confident it did. Will I always be so lucky? God knows. But the way I trade, being fussy and looking for perfect entries, I'm fairly certain that I'm avoiding sharks as much as I possibly can. I think this is an additional edge. King was very unfortunate on ELN and took a hit. I pray he doesn't suffer over ELN any further. I pray his emotions are not ruling his decisions, for I know with certainty and from experience, the destination of that path. Hindsight is 20/20, but I like my foresight to be as close to 20/20 as possible. I am very picky and very cautious. I always remember now that downside potential is ever present. One must protect against this as best he/she can. Nope, won't always do this correctly, but at least it's a top priority, and that fact alone will avoid most dark caves where predators hunt.

Back to your question: with limited charting abilities, quick trigger, poor timing, fear, yes, in the wrong game. BUT - if you know these are your limitations and have the ability to change yourself and OVERCOME them, then it's the right game. Success is absolutely possible, but like most things in life, it's obtained less by changing your environment or controlling those around you, and more by searching within for faults and limitations, and really changing yourself to control your weaknesses. It's much like the game of golf, really. If you let your emotions rule your game, you will take big risks and go for low percentage shots for the glory of ego, reckless of the odds against you, you'll swing fast and hard, beyond your physical limits of balance and control, cuss in anger when you fail, and scream in self-indulgent glee, riding the dragon and loving it. Where does it get you after 18 holes? The bottom of the leader board usually. It's the player who can play low risk, high percentage shots, not going for glory shots, taking medicine and hitting sideways from rough to fairway, swinging well within himself/herself, controlling rhythm, tempo, negative thoughts, susceptibility to distractions, who is the one that at the 18th hole is likely to be the winner. It's got nothing to do with your opponent or environment, and EVERYTHING to do with yourself.

Anyway, I'm raving again, but thanks for the post that has prompted these thoughts. I really feel they are close to truth and helpful to others. I say this with humility and generosity, and hope others get something out of them.

To finish off and quickly respond to you other questions: a low maintenance investment with low emotional ride, sheesh, I guess low return guaranteed vehicles, but truly, you're asking the wrong person. Anyone else?

The odds of beating the market? LOL I guess measured in the universe of all market participants, pretty slim long odds. Measured in a smaller 'world' that takes the form of helpful forums like this one, pretty good odds. :D

Later!

[jiesen]

wow, Spike, what a fine post!

I always love reading what you have to say, but this was exceptional.

[skiracer]

I have to agree that this is one of the best and most sincere posts I have read. Also the truth in every aspect. Well put.

[billyjoe]

Spike,

Last week the charts of many of the stocks on my watchlist look as though they fell off a cliff. These stocks have been doing decently for at least 8 weeks . It's very noticeable when going through the charts quickly , the same pattern again and again. If the market rallies there must be many 50% retrace candidates now.

billyjoe

[New-born baby]

Spike,

Last week the charts of many of the stocks on my watchlist look as though they fell off a cliff. These stocks have been doing decently for at least 8 weeks . It's very noticeable when going through the charts quickly , the same pattern again and again. If the market rallies there must be many 50% retrace candidates now.

billyjoe

BillyJoe,

Why not post the list here? Or throw them on "Hot Pick of the Week" and we'll TA them over there. "Share the gravy."

[New-born baby]

Tom,

I am responding to your question to Spike about beating the market: what's the odds? Biblically speaking, God tells you to invest, diversify 7 or 8 ways, and that it will be profitable. God doesn't guarantee that every investment will pay off. He does say that investing, in the long run ("after many days") does pay off. Read Ecclesiastes 11:1-6. [Be careful about getting me going: I have a whole sermon on this text!].

I wouldn't read that TT stuff if it is full of negativity. The truth is that the market HAS paid off--even in the 1920's,1930's, and the worst decade of them all that no one speaks about as being bad: the 1970's. Yup, the 1970's was the worst of 'em all.

95% of all investors are losers because they don't study. The market is work. But I do love it. It beats digging ditches for a living.

Best to you all,

[Thomrich]

Greetings,
Thanks for the reply Spike,and NBB,

I got rattled after seeing ELN,and reading on TTs site while awaiting new brokerage.

It was kind of nice to be on the sidelines,it gave me a different perspective.I did some research on other investments,and the old rule still applies,The less risk the less reward.

cordially Tom

[skiracer]

Won't try to talk you out of that concept but can't say I agree with you on it. Managed risk vs reward is just as profitable depending on the stocks price, and how many shares you have. Of course a lower priced stock can double easier that a much higher priced one but points are gains regardless an a planned and timed entry with low risk vs high reward is much better imo.

[spikefader]

Spike,
Another Q, I'm really getting interested with this Fib stuff!!
Take a look at TOPT, was it a buy when it hit the 62.8 retrace?
Apparently it was :D

Just for the record, this thread and the Mr.Market Top 5 Fib retrace system is a very unique system. I can't speak for actual results using the 62.8 Fib retrace alone for entries. I haven't done testing on it. Maybe others have. But it IS a level of support, and I would consider it in the bigger picture of potenial movment.

The 50% retrace method in this thread seemed like a 'bright' idea when I was contemplating entry triggers. Call it dumb luck or stroke of genius, but it's working with the Mr. Market current Top 5 - touch wood.

The 62.8 retrace on TOPT was from a signicicant low to high, so it's likely to offer great support. As to how long that remains so, now that's the $64,000 question.

[Thomrich]

Won't try to talk you out of that concept but can't say I agree with you on it. Managed risk vs reward is just as profitable depending on the stocks price, and how many shares you have. Of course a lower priced stock can double easier that a much higher priced one but points are gains regardless an a planned and timed entry with low risk vs high reward is much better imo.

Greetings,
I was referring to low risk investments like treasuries,as compared with traded shares of anything.

I saw a rep from Elliotwave international recently,and he still is touting short term 90 day treasuries right now.

they must see a correction coming I assume.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings ,
Excellent read on FRO Spike,very happy for you,are you targeting recent top of around 50?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings ,
Excellent read on FRO Spike,very happy for you,are you targeting recent top of around 50?

cordially TomThanks!! Excellent would have been getting the perfect entry. But patience is beginning to reward now (whew), and with the bullish channel break now, I will target the upper weekly channel, currently at 65.00.

[spikefader]

update:
re CWTR long here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=15213&postcount=211
There was 3 for 2 stock split a couple days back. Recalculating entry and target based on this: long price is 29.62/3x2=19.75. Target is 19.75x1.15=22.71.

OPEN TRADES UPDATE:
NGPS at 33.49 retarget 33.85. Looking pathetic.
FRD long 12.50, targeting 12.13. Silly stock.
IIG Long 18.14, retarget 16.10 (the system's worst performer to date). Double bottom on daily and intraday ascending triangle breakout yesterday. Target possible.
ARLP long 73.37. Target is 84.38. Working nicely.
CWTR long 19.75 (29.62 pre split). Target is 22.71 (34.06 pre split). Hanging in there.

[spikefader]

[QUOTE=spikefader]
Checking FIBS and latest 50% retrace signals for open positions here are some changes to targets and eventual profit loss for each position assuming they are met:

ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit

Assuming these targets are all met, system total will be 78.54% in 18 trades. Average will be 4.36% per trade. These retargets have put a dent in the average profit of 8+% per trade, but thems the breaks. It will take a string of say five or six winners to put that average back over 8%.

Speaking of winners, the Spring Break Top 5 came out on Friday. You guys didn't even remind me. Is anybody even reading this thread?! :D OK, I'll look at them in the next post.

[Websman]

Spike,
OFG has got slaughtered over the past week or two!

I would still like to get a Vulcans revenge on this one, but it isn't looking too good...

[spikefader]

Spring Break Top 5 here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=16060&postcount=1

The candidates are:

BMHC CMTL FORD HBP SEB

Alarms set for 50% retrace entries! Stay tuned :D

[spikefader]

Spike,
OFG has got slaughtered over the past week or two!

I would still like to get a Vulcans revenge on this one, but it isn't looking too good...
Hasn't it! Your revenge was on the short side, as posted here:
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=638&stc=1

Significant lower channel is at 21.30, so that is the time to look for a long.

[spikefader]

New Top 5 entry occurred today.

SEB: Long 1076.54 targeting 1238.02.

OPEN POSITIONS:

ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
SEB - Long today 1076.54 targeting 1238.02 or 15% profit

[casinoboy3]

Hey Spike,
Any thoughts on a good entry point for CMTL, MM's last pick?
Thanks.

[spikefader]

Hey Spike,
Any thoughts on a good entry point for CMTL, MM's last pick?
Thanks.
I've got alarms in place for 41.80 for the system long, but that'll likely change with price hitting new highs today. I'll move it according to what the top is.

As far as suggestions aside from the system in this thread, the daily channel turn up yesterday green lighted a long at the closing price yesterday; 50.57, and that would have you smiling today. You missed that bus. There's now a double top on intraday basis, so that justifies tightening any stop on an open position. If price were to come back to 50.57 I don't think I'd take it long. Bottom line, you've missed the ideal time today, but perhaps S1 or S2 over coming days....

[spikefader]

Further on CMTL:
There's been a 5 wave completion up after the ascending triangle break up. There is still plenty of room to the upper channel, but still no 'C' correction entry after the 5 waves. The channel turn up has been good so far, but honestly, I see a distinct possibility that it gets sold here at 52.00. It is forming what looks like a 2-day bull flag, but there is intraday double top, and if the bull pattern fails, it could have a hard and fast 'C' correction to maybe 48.00.

Now that C entry will be worth waiting for I think. Let's cross that bridge when it comes. For now, protect profit and capital if you're currently long. Let it prove it can beat 52.00. Smart people sell at resistance, which is where it is. Then be a smart buyer down the road.

[casinoboy3]

Thanks, Spike. I'll wait to see if it drops before I obtain a position in CMTL.

[spikefader]

HBP system entry today at 10.44. 15% target is 12.00.

[casinoboy3]

Further on CMTL:
There's been a 5 wave completion up after the ascending triangle break up. There is still plenty of room to the upper channel, but still no 'C' correction entry after the 5 waves. The channel turn up has been good so far, but honestly, I see a distinct possibility that it gets sold here at 52.00. It is forming what looks like a 2-day bull flag, but there is intraday double top, and if the bull pattern fails, it could have a hard and fast 'C' correction to maybe 48.00.

Now that C entry will be worth waiting for I think. Let's cross that bridge when it comes. For now, protect profit and capital if you're currently long. Let it prove it can beat 52.00. Smart people sell at resistance, which is where it is. Then be a smart buyer down the road.

May have been to early, but I'm in today around $50. Guess we'll see what happens from here.

[spikefader]

Gotta love taking system profits! :D

Another system target hit today; and the full 15% too :D
SEB system long posted here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=16194&postcount=244)has cruised to it's target without any trouble at all. Long 1076.54 closed today at 1238 +15%

And for people saying, SEB is way too expensive to buy shares; consider this: it's the same % profit as any other stock. PLUS you benefit from the low commissions for the lower number of shares you need to buy if you use a broker like IB.

SYSTEM TOTAL TO DATE: Total system profit 124% in 14 trades.
Average is 8.86% per trade.

OPEN POSITIONS:
ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit

[spikefader]

May have been to early, but I'm in today around $50. Guess we'll see what happens from here.split adjusted, you're entry was/is about 33?? I see price falling the last couple days. Alarm in place for 29.20 for the system.

[spikefader]

FORD system long today at 12.20. Target is 14.03.

http://img224.echo.cx/img224/416/ford50entry8bo.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

.....
SYSTEM TOTAL TO DATE: Total system profit 124% in 14 trades.
Average is 8.86% per trade......

And for those interested in how the system has performed relative to the market since December 2004, here are the figures:
S&P500: -2%
This system +8.86% (soon to be 9.2% if FORD can manage another 2% up move in the next few days)

:D Maybe we should patent this and sell it as a subscription service Ernie! :D

[casinoboy3]

split adjusted, you're entry was/is about 33?? I see price falling the last couple days. Alarm in place for 29.20 for the system.

Yup, $33.66 to be exact. ARLP and CME are what's killing me though, both down about 20% from where I bought.

[spikefader]

ARLP and CME are what's killing me though, both down about 20% from where I bought.:( I trust you're diversified and not overexposed to those.

[casinoboy3]

:( I trust you're diversified and not overexposed to those.
Well currently I've only got CMTL, ARLP, and CME, each about 1/5 of my IRA. The rest has been sitting in cash. I started contributing to a Roth IRA about a year and a half ago (I'm 19), so I don't have alot of money in my account to diversify sufficiently. I'm debating whether or not I should even contribute more this year because my account value is currently lower then the total amount I've contributed after what will be going on two years. Frequent trading would also hurt me since I'm not buying or selling in large amounts. Either way, I have plenty of time to wait for these stocks to rebound (hopefully). Did get 15% from CMN though before that fell too.

Thanks.

[Iggy]

Always contribute to your Roth if you can afford it - my suggestion would be to get into a mutual fund where you can put in $100.00 here and there when you have it, and save up until you CAN be diversified and not paying a large percentage of your money on buy / sell fees. Good job getting in so young - I'm 23 myself and have been contributing for three years now.

[dmk112]

Spike,

When doing FIBs shouldn't u wait until the previous days ghihgs are taken out to confirm the FIB retracement bounce?

[spikefader]

FORD 15% target reached today :D

Here was the entry http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=17262&postcount=253
and today's action has been huge
http://img9.echo.cx/img9/7414/fordmove1yy.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

SYSTEM TOTALS:
Total system profit 139% in 15 trades.
Average is 9.27% per trade.

OPEN POSITIONS:
ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%

(if all these open positions meet their targets, the system average profit per trade will be +5.88%)

[spikefader]

Spike,

When doing FIBs shouldn't u wait until the previous days ghihgs are taken out to confirm the FIB retracement bounce?Not a rule I've built into the system, but if you like, have a look and see if it would have made a difference.

[dmk112]

Yea not in that case, but it usually does I believe.

[spikefader]

SEB system long today @ 890, based on a solid and signficant 50% retrace.
Target is 1030.

ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%
SEB - long 890 target 1030.

[Websman]

Spike, if I've never told you before...You Rock!!!

Thanks once again for all the priceless info!

[B.J]

Ditto, Webs. Thanks, Spike. In addition, SEB touched 200 DMA and channel (dating back to 5/10/04) touch. Not certain what it all means, but it may be as good a place as any to buy.

Also an island worth of volume action between 834 and 957.

[spikefader]

SEB system long today @ 890, based on a solid and signficant 50% retrace.
Target is 1030.
System target hit today for SEB for 15.7% profit. That was quick! :D
SYSTEM TOTAL:
Total system profit 154.7% in 16 trades.
Average since inception is 9.67% per trade while S&P -3.3% over the same time frame.

OPEN POSITIONS
ARLP - retarget to 77.75 or 5.97% profit.
NGPS - retarget to 29.97 or -10.5% loss
FRD - retaget to 10.79 or -13.68% loss
IIG - retarget to 15.64 or -13.78% loss
CWTR - retarget to 20.05 or 1.53% profit
HBP - target 12.00 or 15%

[noshadyldy]

anyone out there shorting NGPS??

[spikefader]

anyone out there shorting NGPS??:( how NGPS made it into the Top 5 I'll never know....
Or FRD and IIG for that matter......
3 pitiful candidates that haven't helped the system. But even despite their pitiful retargets, and assuming they hit them, it's not going to threaten the system's profitability. It'll still be outperforming the S&P by a very healthy margin.

[spikefader]

Just doing the numbers, if all open positions hit their targets, the system average will be +6.3% per trade.

[spikefader]

OK, time for some number crunching for the system. Next post will be looking at win/loss rates and win probability and I'll throw some equity curve calculations in the thread so we can see whether this MM Top 5 50% retrace system is worth continuing.

Next post will highlight that, as far as equity curves go, the system appears very robust and arguably quite profitable for long-term trading.

More to follow......

[spikefader]

OK, let's review the trades list first.

Previous trades (closed):
ARLP Long 63.74 out 73.05 for +14.6% profit
CWTR Long 24.62 out 25.53 for +3.7% profit
CME Long 197.40 out 198.05 for +0.3% profit
MPX at 25.90 target 26.60 +2.7%
MCRI at 35.30 retarget 34.16 -3.2%
IIG +15%
CMN +15%
BSTE at 57.28 retarget 62.78 + 9.6%
CME at 210.60 retarget 210.81 +.1%
ACRG at 3.06 retarget 3.50 +14.4%
ACRG at 3.30 target 3.50 +6%
ARLP long 70.02 target 80.79 +15.4%
CWTR at 28.18 target 32.51 +15.4%
SEB 1076.54 target 1238.02 15% profit
FORD 12.20. Target 14.03. 15% profit
SEB 890 target is 1030. 15.7% profit

OPEN Trades
CWTR 19.75 (29.62 pre split). Target is 22.71 (34.06 pre split) or 15%
NGPS 33.49 retarget 33.90 or 1.2%
FRD 12.50, retarget 11.96 or -4.3%
IIG 18.14, retarget 18.75 or 3.36%
ARLP 73.37 target is 76.76 or 4.6%
HBP 10.44 target is 12.00 or 15%

Equity Curve analysis
How do these results perform in the equity curve generator??
Well, there are 3 different equity curve calculations I can make:

1) Closed trades only (not a realistic representation of the long term)
2) All trades at final targets (a realistic representation)
3) All trades (with open trades calculated at today’s closing prices for open positions)(not a realistic representation)

Scenario 1:
Closed trades only (closed trades performance is outstanding but rather ‘rose-colored’ view)
win/loss = (154/15)/(3.2/1) = 10.26/3.2 = 3.206
win probability = 15/16 = 0.9375
http://img201.echo.cx/img201/4158/closed8dr.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)*******************
Scenario 2:
All trades PLUS open trades (assuming they reach their targets)
win/loss = [(154.7+39.16)/20]/(7.5/2) = [193.86/20]/(7.5/2) = 9.69/3.75 = 2.585
win probability: 20/22 = .91
http://img201.echo.cx/img201/1596/targets5ss.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)*******************


Scenario 3 (the most unlikely and unfair interpretation I could make for it):
All trades PLUS open trades where they currently stand today (not a realistic summary of system potential since open trades are yet to mature and finalize) NOTE that even with the enormous downdrafts currently experienced by the three dogs of the portfolio; NGPS, FRD, and IIG, the system still generates an average positive equity curve!!! (from 9 random generated samples)
win/loss = (154.7/15)/(137/7) = 10.31/19.57 = 0.5268
win probability = 15/22 = 0.682
http://img201.echo.cx/img201/8531/todaysvalue8cl.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)*******************

SUMMARY:
It seems this system is producing very attractive positive equity curve growth results. But how much capital should one even consider throwing at a system like this one?

Well, conservative guidelines recommend no more than three percent of your total capital on any one position. That means if you're thinking of throwing a grand at each of these signals, you'd want to have 30K capital. So if this system has a half dozen open positions at any one time, that's still only allocating 20% of your total portfolio in a pretty unique and very impressive system trading activity. That leaves 80% of your capital for other grandios schemes :D That way, in the event a few of these signals turn out to be dogs, then you're not over-exposed to the positions. I would strongly discourage people from trading this system in a discretionary way, and throwing a large chunk of cash at one or even a select few MM Top 5 stocks. Diversification is key. If you don't have the capital to trade something like this, then you'd be better off trading more secure vehicles like the indexes or iShares that don't get hit hard with devastating news and big institutional sellers that can ram a stock down hard like what happened to NGPS. Or the other alternative if one has limited capital and looking to trade this type of system, then buy call options instead of the stock. They are cheap if you buy out-of-the-money, you have limited downside risk, and they are volatile enough to really give you some nice returns - often more than the 15% targeted in this thread.

Anyway, I think I'll take a break from new positions and just report on any targets hit and eventually get around to a final system summary to warp the thread up when they've all closed out. It's been a fun exercise and hopefully it's give people a few things to think about.

[Karel]

...

SUMMARY:
It seems this system is producing very attractive positive equity curve growth results. But how much capital should one even consider throwing at a system like this one? ...
Interesting, very interesting! Nice results, nice curves. But about: how much money, the analysis gives a hint. It is the Kelly value, but things are a bit more complicated. If you know the win/loss ratio and the win probability, and you gamble throw for throw, the Kelly value indicates how much to place on each bet, percentagewise. But as we are not "gambling" throw for throw, we have a maximum number of open positions, and taken together, that investment may not exceed the Kelly value for optimum risk/reward. Say you want to allocate 100K to this strategy. In scenario 1 you always keep 8.2% at the side (initially 8200). In scenario 2 that amount is 12.5% ($12,500), in scenario 3 it is 92.2% ($92,200!).

This says nothing about how much you should allocate per stock. Take an allocation guideline of, say, 5% of your portfolio total per stock and say you use this strategy exclusively. In scenario 2, 12.5% has to remain at the side at all times. So you allow for a maximum (and optimum) number of postions of 87.5 / 5 = 17.5. If you dedicate only a percentage of your portfolio to this strategy, the number of stocks is accordingly lower.

One word of warning: In the third scenario, the Kelly value effectively says that there must be better ways to spend your money. This marked difference with the other two scenarios should make anyone pause. Not that this condemns the strategy, but it is certainly an indication that there are not enough data points to make a reasonably safe conclusion.

I also did a "third scenario" analysis for the current 66+2 winners and 12 losers of $$$Mr.Market$$$:

http://img89.echo.cx/img89/2327/mmih6ho.gif (http://www.imageshack.us)

Now the Math expectation has me worried: on average you gain 27c on every dollar you invest. But the numbers used had a maximum return of 15%, or 15c. The reduction of individual gains/losses to a win/loss ratio seems to do strange things to the simulation. Looking back at the expections of spike's analyses, I see returns of $2 and more for every dollar. Which never went into the calculation. When I see them coming out of it, I very much wonder what is going on.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

Interesting stuff there Karel. Have you worked out what is going on yet?

[spikefader]

:D CWTR's retarget of 1.5% profit was hit today. Another one bites the dust. The retarget was obviously due to the sell off in March and April. Glad to be out of this for some reason.
entry here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=15213&postcount=211)
split and recalc of numbers here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=15811&postcount=239)
and the afternoon 'spike' today to close the position:
http://img89.echo.cx/img89/9243/cwtrspike0xo.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[mmm]

CWTR has eps reporting..think it spiked into the eps.
Probably smart to sell in front of them but I think they were
expected to be pretty good.

[spikefader]

Guess what!!! The system is still rocking!

HBP 15% target of 12.00 was hit on 17 June!!
ARLP 4.6% target of 76.76 was hit recently on July 12!
NGPS 1.2% target was hit today! Hooray! That was a long time coming.....it's actually looking very bullish right now, so anyone long should be feeling very good about it.

FRD 11.96 target still open....current price is 6.85. Boo hiss.
IIG 18.75 target still open....current price is 11.17.

SYSTEM TOTALS:
Total system profit 177% in 20 trades;
an average of a healthy 8.85% per trade.
The S&P over the same period can boast only 4.9%. So this system performs slightly over 80% better! Not bad!

And it should be noted that the S&P has been on a bullish run the last few weeks. Had I taken the S&P reading 10 trading days ago the system would be outperforming the market by over 350%!!! (S&P was a mere +2.5%)

Bottom line is that despite the extremely bullish nature of the market of late, it still can't compete with MM's Top 5 picks. MM's model rocks as far as I'm concerned!

[dmk112]

Spike, what ever happened to this thread? Did you give up because you were up a measly 177%??? Is that the best you can do?? LOL

Spike, seriously you should start a fund. I'll be the 1st in line to drop it in my 401K.

[spikefader]

Spike, what ever happened to this thread? Did you give up because you were up a measly 177%??? Is that the best you can do?? LOL

Spike, seriously you should start a fund. I'll be the 1st in line to drop it in my 401K.
lol thanks for the vote of confidence! :D Hedge fund would be too much stress I'm sure! I'll stick to trading individuals' portfolios thanks.

And for this thread no I didn't give up, was just getting very short on time so decided to take a break from new positions as per this earlier post:
.....Anyway, I think I'll take a break from new positions and just report on any targets hit and eventually get around to a final system summary to wrap the thread up when they've all closed out. It's been a fun exercise and hopefully it's give people a few things to think about.

But I do wonder how the recent Top 5 picks would have fared. If I ever get time I may look. As for the open positions of the ones I was tracking I see they remain open, IIG is currently trading 6.45 (target is 18.75) and FRD is trading 6.08 (target is 11.96). IIG actually looking OK from here while the 6.00 low holds. Don't know about FRD... But these two have been a couple of dogs.
Good example of why diversity is essential for this type of system.

[spikefader]

FRD recent weekly booming action suggestive that it has a strong chance to hitting that 11.96 in a couple months, and IIG has inverted weekly head and shoulders that targets 12.00 resistance. I shall close that position there since it's such heavy resistance and then do a final tally of the numbers and do a final equity curve on the numbers to see where in reality this experiment sits and assess just how good the 50% retrace entry method for MM's Top 5 picks can be....

[spikefader]

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/3233/iigfeb266jl.gif (http://imageshack.us)
http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/3172/frdjan265wi.gif (http://imageshack.us)