Decisions, decisions (SIRI)

[abk33139]

So my SIRI is up almost 17% since I bought it. I had planned on keeping this stock long term. I'm not sure whether I should set a goal like 18 or 20% and then sell, hope it goes back down a bit, and re-buy, believing that it will go up more. If I do that, then at least my original investment, plus a nice profit, will be safe. Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Alison

[mrmarket]

So my SIRI is up almost 17% since I bought it. I had planned on keeping this stock long term. I'm not sure whether I should set a goal like 18 or 20% and then sell, hope it goes back down a bit, and re-buy, believing that it will go up more. If I do that, then at least my original investment, plus a nice profit, will be safe. Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Alison

this sounds like a mission for uncle Spike! Come on Spike, help the poor lass.

[spikefader]

So my SIRI is up almost 17% since I bought it. I had planned on keeping this stock long term. I'm not sure whether I should set a goal like 18 or 20% and then sell, hope it goes back down a bit, and re-buy, believing that it will go up more. If I do that, then at least my original investment, plus a nice profit, will be safe. Any thoughts?

Thanks,
Alison
Since you held throught the resistence, and it seems free and clear, I'd hold it now and target an upper channel. Move stop to even sit back with a smile on your face. Don't let emotion - i.e. fear of lost profits, cause you to exit on emotion and miss out on the really extraordinary profits a position like this one can deliver to you with a bit of patience.
Congrats!

[Websman]

$10 upper channel??? Are you serious Spike???

I don't know if I can handle that much cash in my portfolio!!!

This is great!!! That's like 300% for me!!!

[spikefader]

$10 upper channel??? Are you serious Spike???
I don't know if I can handle that much cash in my portfolio!!!
This is great!!! That's like 300% for me!!!
lol :D Deadly serious. That's where the regression channel has placed itself, so hold on for the fun run!

[Websman]

This is un-friggin-believable!!!

My account is looking good!!

If SIRI hits $10, I'm throwing a party! Beer's on the house!!!

[Websman]

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAHAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! !

I AM OVERWHELMED!!!!!

After a down day, news comes out that Mel Karmazin has been named CEO of Sirius. The #$%@ thing has shot up over a dollar after hours!

SIRI could go over $6 by tomorrow. My account is looking very good!

Congratulations to all those who were crazy enough to hold SIRI...

[abk33139]

Woo hoo! As I've said before, I bought this stock to stay in it for a long time - not just until it goes up "x" percent. I believe it will be a big winner long-time. However, last night I was wondering if I should sell and then re-enter if it drops again. After the Mel Karmizan news, I'm psyched that I stayed in. Go SIRI!

Alison

[spikefader]

Congrats on holding!
Check out the channel long today too. I was going to post this in my thread earlier but got distracted. And when it sat down near S2 all afternoon I was going to post it was a good spot to be buying :D

[dmk112]

Spike, you think its still a buy?

[abk33139]

So, SIRI is up another 10% today. That's almost 41% since I bought (wish I'd bought more than 400 shares ;-)). I keep thinking that if it hits 50% I should sell and then re-enter, but I don't know enough about this whole stock thing to make a decision (if you choose not to decide you still have made a choice). Having to pay $30 round trip for each entry/exit, makes me think I should stay in. Thoughts?

[spikefader]

Spike, you think its still a buy?
Sorry about the delay in responding. Didn't see this post til just now.
Bias is clearly bullish. Timing an entry is the tricky part. If I were long, I'd hold it and target 10.00 with stop to even. I probably wouldn't buy it up here though.

[spikefader]

So, SIRI is up another 10% today. That's almost 41% since I bought (wish I'd bought more than 400 shares ;-)). I keep thinking that if it hits 50% I should sell and then re-enter, but I don't know enough about this whole stock thing to make a decision (if you choose not to decide you still have made a choice). Having to pay $30 round trip for each entry/exit, makes me think I should stay in. Thoughts?
When in doubt, do nothing :D
At all times when trading, your actions must not follow emotion, but be logical. Don't close it out of fear of losing profit unless that fear is solely based on some logical rule that your system has. You may not think you even HAVE a system, and you may not, but everyone has a plan. Your plan was to hold it for a long time because you believe in the stock. Why sell it just because it's 41% higher, unless you see some reason to take your profits earlier than you said you would.
If it were me, I'd hold it long with a stop to even, and smile. The move is clearly impulsive, so it could very easily continue to rocket up. I see daily channel resistance at 6.50, which is a good target. I see weekly channel resistance at 10.00, which is an even better target.
And if you ARE going to take profit at this time, make sure you do it at intraday resistance. R2 is good. Selling at the pivot or S1 or S2 is bad. Don't do it. Remember that whatever you do, whether you swing trade, long-term trade or daytrade, you want to buy at support and sell at resistance (BASSAR theory) . See my chart that shows the resistance of yesterday's high. That was a good place to sell. A good place to sell now that you've missed that is a test of today's high. Where it is now at R1, that WAS resistance, but it's now support, so traders will buy the yellow support line.
Congrats on a good trade thus far.

[abk33139]

Thanks, Spikefader. You're right - I bought this stock for the long haul, and sticking with it is what I should do. I do think that if it ever hits $10, I'll sell, although I'm a woman and might change my mind. ;-) I don't understand one thing in your post (at least this time its only one thing - usually I don't understand most of the posts that have all this trading lingo) - you say if you're going to sell then to sell it at intraday resistance. First, what is that and second, I have the ability to tell my account that I want to sell at "X" dollars. So, does it matter when I sell as long as I sell it for, let's say, $10/share?

As always, thanks for the help.
Alison

[scifos]

Bias is clearly bullish. Timing an entry is the tricky part. If I were long, I'd hold it and target 10.00 with stop to even. I probably wouldn't buy it up here though.

Boy, watching it the past few days makes me really want to get in on it. But really, even with spike's 10 target and clearly bullish, I don't think this is the time to enter (definately the time to hold though!)

[Websman]

I'm in SIRI at $3.33. It closed at $5.97. SIRI is making up for all of the losing trades I've had this year.

I'm thinking of writing Howard stern and Mel Karmizin and thanking them for making me money!

[abk33139]

And, so, when will you sell? Just asking out of curiosity....

Alison

[Websman]

And, so, when will you sell? Just asking out of curiosity....

Alison

I swing trade a lot, but I'm in SIRI for a long term investment. I'm looking at the long term potential of satellite radio. Sure, there are going to be a lot of ups and downs but, in the long run, I think the upside potential is tremendous. The bick kicker for Sirus isn't Howard Stern or Mel Karmazin. What's going to really get this thing going will be factory car installs. Sirius will be going into Chrylsler, Dodge, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, Winnebago, Freightliner, and other vehicle lines.

Think about it...Would you rather put a Satellite radio in your car or have one already installed when you buy a new car? People are lazy. They won't use it unless it's already there.

You'll buy a car and it'll already be there. Some of them come with as few months free. Odds are that you'll be hooked and you will continue your subscription.

I've been telling everyone for the past year that this thing is going to be huge. It's just like if you would have bought Microsoft and AOL and held them for a number of years. You would have made a killing!

That's what I'm doing with Sirius, and it WILL make me a lot of money in the long run. It would be different if I traded for a living, but I don't. I have plenty of time to wait.

So...When will I sell my SIRI stock? Like I told Spike $200 per share or 2009, whichever comes comes first.

So, when are you selling yours?

Webs...

[Jaws57]

I bought this thing after my wife put it in her car. It is an awesome idea, I had thought about buying XMSR but I am glad I got SIRI my ave cost is 3.25.

I dont plan to sell unless I get convinced that sattelite radio is not going to be the next "cable TV".

Jaws57

[tokyojoeskid]

gaaaa, I was in siri at 1.07 back in the day man I wish I woulda held on to the thing. I ended up selling at around 2 for what I thought was a sweet double. I'm looking to re enter the stock for the long haul. I am a Sirius believer

[abk33139]

Hmmm. Not sure exactly when I'll sell. I like your idea of $200/share or 2009. That would mean my measly $1,600 investment would be worth $80,000. Now THAT would shock the heck out of me, considering it was the first stock I bought. I never thought I'd see anywhere near this kind of increase in less than a month. I just always assumed it would be something I'd hold for a few years before I saw any significant gain.

For now, I'll suscribe to the $200 or 2009 theory. :-)

Thanks,
Alison

[New-born baby]

Alison,

I don't think Webs is being serious (pardon the pun) when he says he'll hold until $200. Perhaps, since this is your first stock and we want you to do well, you might consider other opinions for a realistic target for this stock. Why not ask Spike for a target price, and a place to put a stop limit in so that this thing doesn't dive on you and you lose all your profit.

I hope this is the first of many winners for you.

[spikefader]

Well, that channel target I spoke about has been hit. Intraday R2 hit. SHS formation with neckline break is bearish. Watch this baby fall for a few days.....

[spikefader]

A closer look at the daily.

[spikefader]

Only fair I warn you I just went short at 6.60 with stop just over high of day. Risking 5.5% to gain 25%. Not bad r/r
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9353&postcount=1551

[mrmarket]

ok...spike...give us the real story..you have the Bear avartar when you are bearish and the Bull avatar when you are bullish, correct?

[spikefader]

ok...spike...give us the real story..you have the Bear avartar when you are bearish and the Bull avatar when you are bullish, correct?Yep, you got it. If I'm bearish on the market you'll see the bear, and when I'm bullish, you'll see the bull. And by now it's probably obvious that I change my bias pretty regularly.
Obviously, SIRI is the exception at the moment :D

[Websman]

Alison,

I don't think Webs is being serious (pardon the pun) when he says he'll hold until $200. Perhaps, since this is your first stock and we want you to do well, you might consider other opinions for a realistic target for this stock. Why not ask Spike for a target price, and a place to put a stop limit in so that this thing doesn't dive on you and you lose all your profit.

I hope this is the first of many winners for you.


I am serious...but being it's Alison's first trade, I would recommend following Spike advice, especially if a large portion of your funds are in it. Sure it may continue to go up, but it could drop just as hard.

For me, I have a small amount of my money in SIRI, so I can afford to stick it out.

[Websman]

Only fair I warn you I just went short at 6.60 with stop just over high of day. Risking 5.5% to gain 25%. Not bad r/r
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=9353&postcount=1551


I don't think SIRI is finished running yet...

[spikefader]

I don't think SIRI is finished running yet...
Plan firmly in place. Let the cards fall where they may, and I'll smile regardless.

[Websman]

Plan firmly in place. Let the cards fall where they may, and I'll smile regardless.

hmmm...Looks like we have a little game of Tug-o-war going here eh Spikester???

Let's place a little bet here Spike...How about, if SIRI goes up tomorrow, I buy you a beer. If SIRI goes down tomorrow you buy me a beer...assuming we meet up at a Mr Market get together one day...

I'll smile either way also. After all, I am up over %100!

[IIC]

"When in doubt, do nothing"...Spike

Let me tell you...I respect Spike's analyses and opinions...He is a very sharp guy(I guess he's a guy anyway?...Doesn't matter to me one way or the other)...but I have a different motto:

"When in doubt, get out"...I'd much rather miss a winner than hold a loser...not that I'm saying one way or the other whether or not this one is good or bad.

BTW: I joined Mr M the day after T-Giving last year...It has been a nice 12 mos. Hope everyone has a nice holiday...Best, IIC

PS: Speaking of beer...how 'bout we have a beer drinking contest? Don't know if I'll win...but it would certainly be fun.

[New-born baby]

Incredible volume! A daytrader's dream, perhaps. But just a friendly warning:

THIS THING HAS TO BE TRADING AT 1000 TIMES SALES. IT CANNOT BE WORTH ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE PRICE IS.

Why?
They only have 800,000 subscribers. And remember, XMSR has the two largest auto producers in the world using it: Toyota and GM.

Best investing to you all!

[Karel]

Well, if we multiply Q3 sales by 4, SIRI is at about 100 times sales now. They have to grow sales a lot if 6 is to become a stable level. So even slowing growth might become a danger signal. But what do I know. It certainly isn't a $$$Mr.Market$$$ stock.

Regards,

Karel

[spikefader]

hmmm...Looks like we have a little game of Tug-o-war going here eh Spikester???

Let's place a little bet here Spike...How about, if SIRI goes up tomorrow, I buy you a beer. If SIRI goes down tomorrow you buy me a beer...assuming we meet up at a Mr Market get together one day...

I'll smile either way also. After all, I am up over %100! :) you're on!
And yes, you can wear a big fat smile alright. Nice number that :D
I'll go get my icy cold beer mug out of the freezer for you :D

[New-born baby]

Better make that an A&W Root Beer.

[jiesen]

Spike,

Good call on the SIRI short!

[spikefader]

Better make that an A&W Root Beer. I like their 1948 bulls eye logo: (all in gest!!)

[Websman]

I just got home from work...It's looking like I going to owe you a beer Spike. I'm still happy, though!

[jiesen]

hmmm...Looks like we have a little game of Tug-o-war going here eh Spikester???

Let's place a little bet here Spike...How about, if SIRI goes up tomorrow, I buy you a beer. If SIRI goes down tomorrow you buy me a beer...assuming we meet up at a Mr Market get together one day...

I'll smile either way also. After all, I am up over %100!
Hmmm, the way I read this, Spike owes you the beer since SIRI is down today, no?

[spikefader]

Spike,
Good call on the SIRI short! Thanks! Now if will just give me that 25% gap fill then I'll get back to watching for a long entry, 'cuz I don't think it's finished it's bull run....it's just taking a breather :D
I just got home from work...It's looking like I going to owe you a beer Spike. I'm still happy, though! Thanks Webs. Yep, keep smilin'.
Hmmm, the way I read this, Spike owes you the beer since SIRI is down today, no? :) hehe If it fills that gap at 4.93 for me, I'll buy the whole forum a virtual beer!

[Websman]

Hmmm, the way I read this, Spike owes you the beer since SIRI is down today, no?


Your right! I wrote the opposite of what I meant though...lol

You still win! I owe you the beer...SIRI went your way today.


I don't like beer anyways....but I do like Smirnoff Ice.

[Websman]

Uhoh...Better cover your short Spike! SIRI is back up by .26 today. I wonder what Monday will hold?

I finally ordered my first Sirius Satellite Radio. I found a deal and got a free Sirius radio for the price of a one year pre-paid subscription.

[Websman]

Incredible volume! A daytrader's dream, perhaps. But just a friendly warning:

THIS THING HAS TO BE TRADING AT 1000 TIMES SALES. IT CANNOT BE WORTH ANYWHERE NEAR WHAT THE PRICE IS.

Why?
They only have 800,000 subscribers. And remember, XMSR has the two largest auto producers in the world using it: Toyota and GM.

Best investing to you all!

In Defense of SIRI... Vectorvest rates the value of SIRI at $1.14 and XMSR at $3.07. I would say that XM is also highly overvalued.

True SIRI has less subscribers, but XM got an earlier start.

XM may have Toyota and GM, but SIRI has Daimler/Chrysler, Dodge, Ford, BMW, Mercedes, Jaguar, Volvo, Winnebago, Freightliner...and the list keeps growing.

SIRI stands a very good chance at going into the Canadian market. XM would have to add Satellites in order to do so.

SIRI is working on the European Markets.

SIRI also is in the process of developing Video.

SIRI has, in my opinion, has a more aggressive and innovative managment team. ie...Mel Karmazin.

I'm placing my bets on Sirius.

Webs...

[spikefader]

Uhoh...Better cover your short Spike! SIRI is back up by .26 today. I wonder what Monday will hold?

I finally ordered my first Sirius Satellite Radio. I found a deal and got a free Sirius radio for the price of a one year pre-paid subscription. Ya, up on low volume! Warning longs :D
My stop stays where it is.

[New-born baby]

Webs,

I am writing this for your financial well-being, and I write out of concern for you and Alison.

You are correct when you say you are placing your bets on SIRI. My point is that SIRI is no way worth 100 years' worth of sales. Currently, SIRI is trading at 100 times sales. That means, all the current sales (that's sales, not profits!) for the next 100 years would be required to cover its market capitalization at this time. In other words, this thing is way overpriced. You are indeed betting on this stock.

J.P. Morgan downgraded this stock on Nov 24, 2004. J.P. said, "Dump SIRI and buy XM radio stock now. It is time to take profits."

Will this company be a success? Very possibly. Does that mean that the stock price will hit $200 per share? NO. Will the share price go up more? Maybe, but one thing I know for sure, you are operating in a bubble. And eventually, bubbles break.

TASR wasn't worth $128 per share, either. Alot of people made money off of TASR, and a lot of people lost money on TASR. You see, some had to lose in order for the others to gain. All of them invested hoping for higher and higher prices, but its bubble burst, and it has come down. Look at all the tech stocks of 2000. They have fallen 95% and more. It could happen here.

My point is I do not want to see Alison burned. It is her first investment; I hope she makes money. I'd hate to see her hang on looking for $200 when SIRI goes back to 20 cents. And if you've doubled your money, perhaps you'd be prudent to walk away for awhile and get back in later.

Webs, the very best investing to you. I hope you make LOTS and LOTS of money off of SIRI, and every other investment you make. I am just trying to say I think this thing is dangerous.

[billyjoe]

If SIRI goes to $200 or even $100 it would be worth the entire assets of several smaller countries , multiply it out.
billyjoe

[scifos]

If SIRI goes to $200 or even $100 it would be worth the entire assets of several smaller countries , multiply it out.
billyjoe

1.26 Billion Shares x $200 per share = 252 Billion dollars. That would make it the fourth largest company by market capitalization, behind General Electric(374.7B), Exxon Mobil(333.2B), and Microsoft(289.2B). And Just ahead of Citigroup(235.7B) and Wal-Mart(234.7B). These companies have been around for decades, how long will it take SIRI to get into this group?

[Websman]

1.26 Billion Shares x $200 per share = 252 Billion dollars. That would make it the fourth largest company by market capitalization, behind General Electric(374.7B), Exxon Mobil(333.2B), and Microsoft(289.2B). And Just ahead of Citigroup(235.7B) and Wal-Mart(234.7B). These companies have been around for decades, how long will it take SIRI to get into this group?


Once SIRI acheives CFBE and heads towards profit, the company should start buying back some of the stock.

[jiesen]

Once SIRI acheives CFBE and heads towards profit, the company should start buying back some of the stock.
Also, in the decade or two it should take SIRI to reach that level, market caps of each of those companies is likely to more than double (assuming just your regular 7% growth).

[lak]

I am new to this board but have been a lerker for months. I have a bunch of SIRI and am up nearly 90% still. Thinking of dumping it and thanks to all of you think it is the right move. Just hate to do so if it will hover here and move higher with a solid holiday season..........

[New-born baby]

LAK,

Here's an idea: sell one-half of your position to lock in profits. Set a stop under your other shares to ensure that they do not drop so much as to eat up your profit. IF SIRI advances, move the stop upwards.

Or sell 75%, and let the others run/drop as they will.

Congrats to you on a 90% move. I hope it moves more for you.

[lak]

I was thinking about the half holding sale........ probably do that to lock it in. It looks as if siri will lose ground today, so it might be time.

[MEA_1956]

NBB is right on == on his advice, I have been doing this for the last 1 1/3 yrs. Over all I'm up but have one that sold off more than 76%. ===> M.E.A.

[Websman]

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAH!!!!!

Up .18 on high volume again today!!!

I'll tell you what is driving this stock, and it's spelled...H-Y-P-E...
This hype is caused mostly by Howard Stern and Mel Karmazin along with the fact that Satellite radio is turning out to be a hot Christmas item. I'm still bullish until Christmas.

Someone pass me a beer!

[Websman]

I am new to this board but have been a lerker for months. I have a bunch of SIRI and am up nearly 90% still. Thinking of dumping it and thanks to all of you think it is the right move. Just hate to do so if it will hover here and move higher with a solid holiday season..........


If you have a large portion of your cash invested, I would take your profits while they're guaranteed.
If you're like me and have a small amount of your cash invested, you might be able to stay with it. Since I don't have any money that I can't afford to lose invested in SIRI, I'm riding it through Christmas.

I'm in at an average of $3.33.

Good luck!

[Runner]

SIRI has had a good run, IMO I think the party is coming to a halt. The big question is where does it go from here? While nobody knows for sure I think 4.20-4.50 area might be possible. Then again who has never been wrong?

[abk33139]

We're sooooooooo close to that 7.00 mark. Anyone have any ideas why we got a nice increase today? Is Basketball THAT big a deal?

Alison <ducking because she's a football fan and not a basketball fan>

[jiesen]

We're sooooooooo close to that 7.00 mark. Anyone have any ideas why we got a nice increase today? Is Basketball THAT big a deal?

Alison <ducking because she's a football fan and not a basketball fan>
Sure, it's up because the whole market's up. The $$MM picks had a great day today as well- most of them are up 3-6% today...

[Websman]

SIRI is breaking all the rules and my account is looking better all the time!

[abk33139]

MCRI's not up. :-(

[jiesen]

yeah, casinos tend to move opposite to the rest of the market...

when markets bust, casinos boom! (it's all those folks going to Vegas to "make back" what they lost in the market)

[Websman]

I love Casinos, but I'm making a lot more by gambling on SIRI!!!

[abk33139]

Holy stock trading, Batman! Siri's edging towards $7.30 per share this morning!

Alison

[abk33139]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Almost $7.70 after a close of $6.98 yesterday! Websman must certainly be out celebrating! :-)

Alison

[Websman]

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Almost $7.70 after a close of $6.98 yesterday! Websman must certainly be out celebrating! :-)

Alison

WHO'S YOUR DADDY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!

[Websman]

$7.26 close!!! That's a .26 gain...that's not too bad.....

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! !!!!!

[Websman]

I'm off work, so I'll be checking on my stocks after I run a few errands. The pre-market action on SIRI is looking very encouraging. Could this be another big up day for the Websman portfolio?

[New-born baby]

$7.26 close!!! That's a .26 gain...that's not too bad.....

BWAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! !!!!!

Hey, I thought you cotton pickin' Vulcans didn't have any emotion. Just don't cry when SIRI comes back to planet earth.


Hey, I am saying this in a good-natured way. I hope the thing goes to $200 for you.

[Websman]

Hey, I thought you cotton pickin' Vulcans didn't have any emotion. Just don't cry when SIRI comes back to planet earth.


Hey, I am saying this in a good-natured way. I hope the thing goes to $200 for you.

Spock was only half Vulcan. The other half of him was human, so sometimes the emotions must take over!

Believe me, I know it's not going to $200, but I do believe it will top out around 2009. That's when the subscriber base should max out. that's why I say "$200 per share or 2009, whichever comes first".

I do feel as though the share price will take a plunge right after Christmas so I will lock in my profits before then and buy back at a lower entry point.

So, what are you trading now Newborn???

Webs...

[New-born baby]

Webs,

I am trading oil stocks in Canada. I did very well until about two days ago, and probably should have closed my positions and re-entered later. But I am hanging on now. The stocks are:

PMT.UN Paramount Energy Trust
NVG.UN Navigo Energy Trust
BTE.UN Baytex Energy Trust
VKR.UN Viking Energy Trust

These have done very well for me in the past 5 months. But now oil is sliding down, and the question is: How far down will she slide? Below $40 would be bad news for me.

As for SIRI, I do hope you make millions off of it. I haven't the guts to enter, because I know those piling on now are not buying a company, they are just gambling. Let's face it: those commercials with the dog are quite effective at getting stock holders!

Best investing to you, Webs, always!

[Thomrich]

Greetings new born baby,
The canroys have been getting manipulated by traders lately.PGH went from 16 to 21 in about a week,now down to 18.50.

I still believe buying post dist. and selling the runup is a good strategy..Looking to reenter PGH around 16ish and ride for a 1.00 delta before next dist.

Wish me luck. BTW I miss Spike.

cordially tom

[Websman]

As for SIRI, I do hope you make millions off of it. I haven't the guts to enter, because I know those piling on now are not buying a company, they are just gambling. Let's face it: those commercials with the dog are quite effective at getting stock holders!




That's the whole beauty of it all! It doesn't matter if they're buying it for the company or not, as long as they drive the stock price up. I have a big advantage over the hypsters, who are getting in right now, because I bought in at a much lower price. The dog is doing a great job!

Millions??? Hahaha!!! I wish! I'll settle with thousands!

Good trading!

Webs...

[Karel]

Well yes, but I still feel bad about this thread. I know people are making money on SIRI. That is OK. But it is weird to hear someone say, "I know it's not going to $200". The hype is not that $200 is a defensible valuation for SIRI: the current price level is already a hype level. Price is 120 times revenue already, as I write this. That is not a P/E of 120 (SIRI still operates at a loss), that is a P/S of 120.

OK, so this is a hype. But unlike a thing of beauty, or a dirty mind, a hype is not a joy forever. Owning a stock that has gone in hype mode is a mixed blessing, especially for people who are just getting their toes wet in investing. Perhaps people could discuss how to handle such a case? I would really like that better than the next post saying "another 26c today", and we might actually learn something. But whatever you like.

Regards,

Karel

[New-born baby]

Thomrich,

Great to hear from you. I wanted your advice, and I am looking at PWI for an entry. I think bottom has been hit--I hope so. Will probably enter Monday unless you advise otherwise. Thanks for writing. Great investing to you!

Talk to me about 1.00delta. What is it? And I won't wish you luck; I'll pray God blesses you. That's better than "luck."

[New-born baby]

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

[Websman]

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

Sure Karel. I'm open for any thoughts!

Webs...

[Karel]

Sure Karel. I'm open for any thoughts!
Well, I don't know that I qualify. I don't own SIRI and I don't own any other stock that currently is going hyperbolic. For stocks and ETF's that I do own for the longer term I like the "cream off your gains" routine. With those stocks, I will also add when the stock retraces, but that looks like a very bad idea with SIRI and its ilk.

I treat things very mechanically, as I can't afford to watch intraday charts. Something like: after an X% gain, sell Y% of your gains. With Y = 100, you sell 100% of your gains regularly, and you keep your exposure in $$$ the same. Rationale: if you wanted to risk that many $$$ down then, why would you want to risk more when the valuation becomes (even more) ridiculous? With Y over 1000 you will be gradually selling out of your position; with Y under 100 you will be accumulating, dollarwise (perhaps not a good idea with SIRI).

In my mechanical handling of such a position, I would calculate one or two sell points and put limit orders in for those points. Don't be a dick for a tick, and all that.

So: sell into the hype and leave those other suckers holding the baby.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

So: sell into the hype and leave those other suckers holding the baby.

Regards,

Karel

That pretty much sums it up in one sentence. I like the way you think Karel!

Webs...

[mrmarket]

Karel,

Please follow through on your suggestion. What do you think Webs, Alison and others should do? I would like to learn something, too. I would greatly appreciate your input.

You are so correct. The stock is worth .20 per share; all else is hype. Myself, and I say this respectfully, I'd be afraid to walk away from the computer without stops. I think this thing, with so many shares traded daily, might sag back rather slowly. But it might rocket down to $3 in one day, and $1.50 on the next. I don't know. But I am afraid of this stock.

All the best investing to you, Webs, and everyone on this board, including the HUGE ONE.

I would recommend stops for stocks such as SIRI or any other stocks with unreasonable valuations that cannot be justified by reasonable business modeling.

I don't use stops for MM stocks because I am confident the stocks I own are underpriced relative to their future cash flows.

That's right...$$$MR. MARKET$$$ is an advocate of stops.

[Websman]

That's right...$$$MR. MARKET$$$ is an advocate of stops.

Wow! I am shocked! The huge one has advocated a stop...Where's Spike when you need him. Are you feeling well Mr Market???

[Websman]

After reveiwing the chart and putting all, non-Vulcan emotions aside I'm leaning more towards caution. This thing has been screaming high tight flag for the past few weeks. I do see a little more upside but I would advise all fellow Sirians to be very careful and set a stop price. I don't use stops, but I will set a mental stop to unload my shares in the event that SIRI starts to take the plunge. I will sell and buy back in after it drops.
I still believe that SIRI is going to suprise a lot of people in the next few years. Satellite radio will do to FM radio what FM did to AM.

cautious but optimistic...that's the approach!

Webs...

[thebign1]

I do see a little more upside but I would advise all fellow Sirians to be very careful and set a stop price. I don't use stops, but I will set a mental stop to unload my shares in the event that SIRI starts to take the plunge. I will sell and buy back in after it drops.


cautious but optimistic...that's the approach!

Webs...

Hey Webs, Why sell on the way down? If my calculations are correct, you should be up 125%.....si or no....Don't be greedy!
I am selling a little less than half of my SIRI for a small profit (cash) and leaving the greater half (all profit) alone. I also sold those shares of NUTR that you sold me for a 15% gain on Friday.

Regards, Norm

[abk33139]

After thinking a lot about it, I decided to take the advice of some individuals on the board and I sold SIRI this morning. I sold for $7.84, which is exactly double what I paid. I feel that the stock will still go up, but I think I'll look for a re-enter point after the holidays when it goes down again. Thanks to everyone who's contributed to this topic. I really appreciate you sharing your knowledge with me. Now....what to do with all that money that's back in my account to spend.....

Alison

[abk33139]

Looks like I could have sold for more (SIRI's at $7.91 right now at 11 a.m.), but I'm still happy with my sell point.

What did other folks who are holding SIRI do today?

Alison

[Karel]

Yes, after such an abrupt decision, the stock may very well decide to continue its run for a while. We see it all the time with $$$Mr.Market$$$'s stock picks. After we cash in, the run just continues (in a lot of cases). But a double on one of your first stocks, without an idea, and without a plan ;), can't be bad. You might want to figure out how you could have played this one better, but it might be more profitable (truly!) to start thinking about: what plans are there ($$$Mr.Market$$$'s is one), which do I like/does fit my style, how about implementing it?

$$$Mr.Market$$$ outlines his plan on his personal website (http://hometown.aol.com/ebarsamian) (scroll down!) and on this forum you'll find my approximation (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showthread.php?t=3) of $$$Mr.Market$$$'s method, with ready made screens and a spreadsheet.

$$$Mr.Market$$$'s method is a pretty safe way to pick winners, although not an absolutely safe way. The current percentage is about 80% winners, but I think that's a bit worse than usual.

Regards,

Karel

[mrmarket]

Looks like I could have sold for more (SIRI's at $7.91 right now at 11 a.m.), but I'm still happy with my sell point.

What did other folks who are holding SIRI do today?

Alison

To that...I must add....

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

[scifos]

To that...I must add....

No one ever went broke taking a profit.

I should also like to add... No one ever made anything watching a stock they've sold.

I used to watch stocks I'd sold, but it just messed with my mind too much. Now I only check up on them when they turn up again in my screens/searches. My mentality is, once its done its done. That being said, its not really done until, like Karel said, you analize your performance and learn your lessons from the trade.

[Websman]

I'm still in SIRI. I set my sell point at $6.85 and have been very suprised that it hasn't dropped to that point.

If SIRI holds it's gains today, I may have to up my sell point a little. I'm going to be very shocked if it keeps running, but anything could happen.

[lak]

I am still holding my shares at 130% gain........ I too can't understand what is going on with this stock and watch it often since the rug could come out at any minute. I have set a mental stop/alert and it keeps moving up with the stock price. Here is my Stop question. I used to set them often and still do in some cases...... however I have heard of the horror stories of setting the stop and having someone 'reach' down and buy it. Is this really possible? I need to study stops move to get a real handle on them, and this is a good time as SIRI needs one imho.
As far as seeling....... like MR.Market said....... a gain is a gain. Bottom line. Staying even is even a gain sometimes! ha
I never look back after a sale....... why? Once you study what you did/didn't do right..... move on, unless you are selling into a slide and gonna jump in again soon.
Would love advice or info on the STOP myth.
good luck gang

[scifos]

I used to set them often and still do in some cases...... however I have heard of the horror stories of setting the stop and having someone 'reach' down and buy it. Is this really possible?

Never thought about that. Seems possible that market makers or specialists could do that though I don't know if it's legal or not. If a specialist uses their influence to lower a price simply to stop people out, buy the shares, and let it move back to the previous price, that would probably be market manipulation.

[abk33139]

What is going on with this stock! $8.13??????

Still happy with my sale...
Alison

[lak]

Never thought about that. Seems possible that market makers or specialists could do that though I don't know if it's legal or not. If a specialist uses their influence to lower a price simply to stop people out, buy the shares, and let it move back to the previous price, that would probably be market manipulation.


I just have heard stories of it happening......... and not just from the market price dipping quickly to something and jumping back up........ so I have been curious if this is possible or not!

[Websman]

I would love to have an emotional outburst over the closing price, but I will contain my human emotions...

It's looking like my mental sell stop will now have to be raised to $7.50.

As far as watching stocks after you sell them, I keep watching them and try to learn from them. I also keep a written record of all my trades whether I win or lose. I re-check all of my old trades to see what has happened to the price. I don't let it discourage me if I find that I would have made more. I think of it more as a learning experience. I have found that I tend to be impatient and have sold many stcoks before they reached their full potential. On the other hand, I have sold other stocks too late.

By keeping written records I can go back and see where I went wrong and where I went right. I am still learning a lot, but my trading has improved dramatically.

Webs...

[Runner]

This SIRI has baffled me for a few weeks. I’m amazed with the strength this thing has. My business partner is blowing my doors off. His first investment he made with his on-line broker was SIRI in the 3’s. Needless to say he is fired up big time. Good job for those of you that jumped on this train. Where does this thing go from here?

[mrmarket]

This reminds me of all of the people who bought $1,000 of Microsoft at its IPO in the 1980's and who all said that if they had held it, they'd all be millionaires.

The truth of the matter is that there is really only one person who holds a stock to its highest point and then sells it. Everyone else sells it on the way up. If you look back and see how high the stock went up, it if foolish to think that you wouldn't have sold it after a 100% gain, or 200% gain or 500% gain, etc.

As the altitude gets higher, people bail out of their positions. It's just market psychology.

[Websman]

This reminds me of all of the people who bought $1,000 of Microsoft at its IPO in the 1980's and who all said that if they had held it, they'd all be millionaires.

The truth of the matter is that there is really only one person who holds a stock to its highest point and then sells it. Everyone else sells it on the way up. If you look back and see how high the stock went up, it if foolish to think that you wouldn't have sold it after a 100% gain, or 200% gain or 500% gain, etc.

As the altitude gets higher, people bail out of their positions. It's just market psychology.


So, the question is...Which stock is the next Microsoft?

We need a good psychic.

[thebign1]

Tuesday it will hit $8.80....... and then it will close at $8.64

[Websman]

Tuesday it will hit $8.80....... and then it will close at $8.64

Nice prediction...you're making me rich!

[Jaws57]

This news should keep the snowball rolling!!!!!!!

Sirius Announces Post Production and Dealer Installed Options in Toyota, Lexus and Scion Vehicles Beginning February 2005
Tuesday December 7, 12:10 am ET (see Yahoo)

Jaws57

[Jaws57]

SIRI now is over 10B market cap! I am still long on this stock. I am trying to figure out a realistic potential for satellite radio. What is the market penetration of cable TV?? near 100%??? There are over 200 million cars on the road in the USA. SIRI has 800,000+ now and their breakeven is supposed to be somewhere past 3,000,000 subscribers. This scares me on one hand but if this thing takes off, look out.

Question is what is the profit potential? Lets say SIRI gets 20,000,000 subscribers @ 143.00 yr.
That would be 2,860,000,000 in sales. What would be the net on that?

Any ideas?

Oh yeah, there is a company called XMSR still out there.

Jaws57

[Websman]

My portfolio continues to grow...

[New-born baby]

Webs,

I don't see what you are so excited about with this SIRI stock. I got stopped out of it 3 times today alone. Of course, I sold it short each time . . . . lol.

Congrats to you on this hot, hot, hot stock.

Sometime it has to run out of buyers. This is the new TASR. No wonder Wal-Mart can't sell anything this Christmas season: people are buying shares of SIRI instead.

[Websman]

Webs,

I don't see what you are so excited about with this SIRI stock. I got stopped out of it 3 times today alone. Of course, I sold it short each time . . . . lol.

Congrats to you on this hot, hot, hot stock.

Sometime it has to run out of buyers. This is the new TASR. No wonder Wal-Mart can't sell anything this Christmas season: people are buying shares of SIRI instead.

Oh, SIRI isn't doing much for me...it's only doubled the value of my portfolio...lol

[dmk112]

How far can this stock go without earnings??? unbelievable!!

[Karel]

The trading in SIRI is completely gaga. One moment the stock is up here, half an hour later it is down 5% from that point, but buyers and sellers everywhere. When SIRI was low, I saw buys coming by at .30 higher than the ask; probably people who put in limit buys on a 20 minute delayed quote ...

[Websman]

It's crazy Karel. my ticker is going up and down like a yoyo.

[Websman]

I just saw a buy for $9.24, but it's trading at $9.00..????

[mrmarket]

Everyone in town is talking about SIRI stock. You know this is going the way of Krispy Kreme or Snapple.....but when???

[Websman]

Everyone in town is talking about SIRI stock. You know this is going the way of Krispy Kreme or Snapple.....but when???

I would agree that SIRI will take a sharp drop in the near term, but long term I don't believe SIRI will be like Krispy Kreme or Snapple. Satellite radio will be in millions of cars in the U.S. and Canada. It will do to FM what FM did to AM radio. I'd be willing to bet a six pack of beer on it.

[titanomega1]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

[Websman]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!


YEEAAAAAAAAAAA BABBBBBBBBYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WE'RE MAKING $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BRING ME SOME MEAT AND CHEESE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOW!!!!!!!!!

[thebign1]

Tuesday it will hit $8.80....... and then it will close at $8.64


Whoops! I was a little bit low.....lol

[thebign1]

I was at the pool in San Jose Costa Rico trying to decide if I should gamble, eat, or make the call. Of course if you go to the Del Rio you can do all three without getting out of your seat. Now the guy who organized this bacchanalia was spouting about SIRI and how he was accumulating all he could. So I picked up a few shares the day before Stern made the call. You You YOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

Same here......I got in @ $3.32 the day before the Stern announcement.

[Websman]

Whoops! I was a little bit low.....lol


What??? Did you only get 2 wheelbarrows to put your money in??? You should have got a least 4!

[billyjoe]

Can all you SIRI guys and gals spare me some $ so I can find a penny stock to make me rich? I promise I'll pay you back , just need a grubstake.
billyjoe

[lak]

Watching the trades today of SIRI was crazy......... I considered dropping my shares off when it hit the 9.30 area........ but held, and I hope it was the right decision. When I see those huge differences in bids and asks, that is a HUGE warning sign to me........ the rug might come out sooner than later.......
However, my gut still tells me until the end of the year this thing rolls........ I had a target of 9 for XMas, now I think 10 is more possible than ever before!

[Jaws57]

I am still trying to come up with a profit potential but let me throw this out;

There is a market potential of 350,000,000 subs when you add all the cars, trucks, RVs, boats, households, stores, business etc. Lets say SIRI pulls 20% of that, it would mean
70,000,000 paying subscribers making over 10B in sales. If they can net 10% or 1B in net profit times the industry PE of 36, a market cap of 36B would be reasonable. That breaks down to 28.57 per share. Not a whole lot considering the risks, but if the profit margin is higher, PE higher, market penetration higher???????????? Who knows.

A lot of IF's here but this what makes speculative investing fun!!!

GO SIRI!!!!!!!!!

Jaws57

[Karel]

OK Jaws, I'll throw in my calculation.

Currently, SIRI operates at a loss of .53/share. You said earlier that 3M+ subscribers would mean breakeven. I will assume 4M. Now suppose, conservatively, that SIRI needs all 4M to make good that .53 loss (in practice they will need less). So each 4M customers add .50 to earnings/share. Now it will probably take another year or three to get the first 4M (and break even).

Another three, four years bring the next 4M with a bit of luck, so then SIRI has positive earnings of .50, and the stock might be valued at $18, based on that industry P/E of 36. The current price requires only half as much earnings, and .25/share requires about 6M subscribers, say 5 years out from now. If SIRI adds less than 1M subscribers a year to its base, the valuations fade away farther in the future. I wouldn't know if 1M/year is realistic; it seems a tall order to me.

On these calculations people are hoping to double the current price in 7 years or so; a return of 10% annualized. (Assuming that valuations by then are more normal; and that P/E of 36 still supposes a lot of growth.)

Now to wait for the bumps in the road!

Regards,

Karel

[lak]

and there is the drop

[abk33139]

Websman - did you sell?

[lak]

I did and bought back in twice now too sell for small profits

[Websman]

and there is the drop

Yep, it dropped, but I got out with a profit of 111%!

I need it to drop back now so I can rebuy it.

[abk33139]

I'm curious - at what point will you re-buy? I'm trying to figure out the same thing.

Alison

[Websman]

I'm curious - at what point will you re-buy? I'm trying to figure out the same thing.

Alison

That's a good question. right now, I'm thinking of the $5 range, but it may not go that low. It could actually go back up tomorrow. I'll be watching it very close this afternoon. When I do buy back, I'll be buying more shares than I had.

Back to the ticker...

[Websman]

I never thought I'd be saying this, but...GO DOWN SIRI!!!!

[lak]

I never thought I'd be saying this, but...GO DOWN SIRI!!!!
.........saying the same thing..........

[Websman]

.........saying the same thing..........

SIRI could bounce back tomorrow, but I hope not. I think $5.75 would be a good target price, but I'll have to check the charts first.
What I am pretty sure of is that we will see another run up before Christmas.

Isn't amazing how the Wall Street Journal and a few Analyst can make a stock go down. I wish I had that power. I'd be filthy rich in no time.

I can't complain though. I got out with 111% profit! My protfolio is still looking huge.

[Websman]

Now that I have consumed a large amount of alcohol, I just want to express my emotions over my 111% gain on SIRI.

errrr...bwahahaaa...ha...ha...errrr...BWAAAAAAAAAA AHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Websman]

Now that I have consumed a large amount of alcohol, I just want to express my emotions over my 111% gain on SIRI.

errrr...bwahahaaa...ha...ha...errrr...BWAAAAAAAAAA AHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Now a message for SIRI - DROP YOU PIG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

uhhhh....I think I'm drunk... Would this be likr DUI...except we'd call it TUI???(typing under the influence)

Webs...

[dmk112]

Now that I have consumed a large amount of alcohol, I just want to express my emotions over my 111% gain on SIRI.

errrr...bwahahaaa...ha...ha...errrr...BWAAAAAAAAAA AHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I ROCK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Now a message for SIRI - DROP YOU PIG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

uhhhh....I think I'm drunk... Would this be likr DUI...except we'd call it TUI???(typing under the influence)

Webs...

ahhaha...you nut!

[dmk112]

Webs,

At what point are you looking to get back in? Or maybe I should ask this when you sober up... hehe

[MEA_1956]

Now the truth is comes out. I have finely found the reason everyone is so bitter about my spelling. TUI thats my story and I shall stick to it. ===>M.E.A.

[jiesen]

good one MEA.

[Jaws57]

Karl,
Thanks for the input, 50c per share every 4M subs would rock!!!
At 12M subs, $1.00 per share, $36.00 share price. From $7 today that would be over $500% over 5-8 years maybe?

I am not surprised at todays action, seem like the ANALysts will always downgrade a hot one, actually SIRI was due a pullback.

Still long

Jaws57

[lak]

I think we could see a drop early tomorrow with a slight bounce in the afternoon......... I will be watching it closely too. Congrats Websman!

[Karel]

My pleasure, Jaws. But while those HUGE prices certainly look nice, they might be years and years in the future. Far enough away anyway, and clouded by enough uncertainty, to demand a nice discount now (read: more than the 10% annualized growth perspective at 9, and perhaps the 14% at 7).

Regards,

Karel

[Karel]

And in this article (http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P101820.asp), Jon Markman cites John LaForge from First Albany as saying that the breakeven point for Sirius would be 10M originally, and after all those big, expensive deals more like 20M subscribers. That would change the computation rather drastically, even still assuming 10M for the breakeven. Growth however was forecast at 30% annually, so that would be better than I supposed, but not good enough in the first 10(!) years to compensate for the higher target.

Regards,

Karel

[lak]

And in this article (http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P101820.asp), Jon Markman cites John LaForge from First Albany as saying that the breakeven point for Sirius would be 10M originally, and after all those big, expensive deals more like 20M subscribers. That would change the computation rather drastically, even still assuming 10M for the breakeven. Growth however was forecast at 30% annually, so that would be better than I supposed, but not good enough in the first 10(!) years to compensate for the higher target.

Regards,

Karel


Thanks for the article!

[Websman]

All the estimates for breakeven on Sirius are forgetting one important factor...advertisement revenue. Sirius has ads on the talk channels now, while the music channels are still commercial free. The music channels could keep keep long ads off, but go with short sponsor announcements. There has already been talk of this.

Sirius will need more ads and will probably start sneaking more in.

[New-born baby]

Webs,

SIRI ads have the dog saying, "Commercials. That's why dogs ride with their head out the window. Get SIRIOS. No commercials." Well, if commercials are coming, then I think they will make a lot of people unhappy. Someone may just shoot the dog.

[Websman]

I want that dog to go down!!!!! I need a low re-entry price.

I have a Free Sirus receiver ordered. I got one for free with a one year pre paid subscription. You can get one at Sirius direct and use promo code # 070

[Websman]

SIRI is starting to tick me off! This thing has got to take another sharp drop. I think I'll go to the Yahoo board and start bashing it...

[Jaws57]

Thanks Karl,
At least it is good to see a prediction of 50M subscriptions. I think the breakeven will end up somewhere in between. I like Spike's analysis of it potentally hitting 13.00.

Jaws57

[MEA_1956]

Another one of those things I have not noticed in all of the advice offered on this threaded is to print out the stats on your purchases. This way you can see if things are going the way your plan has been layed out. It sure puts a stop to the guessing game. ===> M.E.A.

[Websman]

What do you think of SIRI now Spike?

I only made 111%...I need more.

[spikefader]

What do you think of SIRI now Spike?

I only made 111%...I need more. Bullish on it with a stop 6.57. Entry with good R/R is the tricky part. May I suggest an INTRADAY inverted SHS with neckline break as the entry. Chart here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10004&postcount=1633)

[Websman]

Here's an interesting story about the potential of SIRI

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round11/P103119.asp

[lak]

Bullish on it with a stop 6.57. Entry with good R/R is the tricky part. May I suggest an INTRADAY inverted SHS with neckline break as the entry. Chart here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10004&postcount=1633)

Thanks for the chart! That is a decent breakdown if you ask me.........

[lak]

Here's an interesting story about the potential of SIRI

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Stratlabs/Round11/P103119.asp

Great article Webs....... looking for a re-entry point myself........

[Websman]

Great article Webs....... looking for a re-entry point myself........


I'm thinking, forget the perfect entry point and just get back in. I've been waiting for two days with no success.

[tokyojoeskid]

Thats what I say WEBS, Im back in at 7.59, a lot higher than my first entry at 1.07 but it will work out in the long run.
TJk

[thebign1]

I'm thinking, forget the perfect entry point and just get back in. I've been waiting for two days with no success.

At this point I would wait until January.....IMHO the profit takers will sell off after the 1st of the year...thebign1

[Runner]

Has anyone noticed SIRI makes it big move of the day in Pre-market trading? Seems to pop prior to market open. I guess this works both ways up and down. Looks like about a .30-cent pop a day. What do you make of this action on SIRI? Last few days volume was lower as price was rising. I guess I’m cautiously optimistic on this one. I’d like to see it come down in price a little and turn sideways for a while.

[spikefader]

At this point I would wait until January.....IMHO the profit takers will sell off after the 1st of the year...thebign1The big thing that suggests that profit taking/short is wrong right now is the fact that it's had a clear impulse up, which often leads to the 5 wave move.

[Websman]

The big thing that suggests that profit taking/short is wrong right now is the fact that it's had a clear impulse up, which often leads to the 5 wave move.


Good point Spike. Might I add that SIrius is getting a lot of attention before Christmas and I believe if one were to wait until January to get in, he would be missing the boat. I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

[New-born baby]

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.[/QUOTE]

Webs,

Can you give us the lesson learned in one paragraph? I mean, if selling SIRI was wrong after a 25% drop,(or whatever the percentage was), where should one have placed the stop-loss? What selling rule, or holding rule, can you give me to learn from your mistake?

Yes, this is a pointed question, but it is also a sincere one. Teach me something! And the very best of investing to you!

[thebign1]

Good point Spike. Might I add that SIrius is getting a lot of attention before Christmas and I believe if one were to wait until January to get in, he would be missing the boat. I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

There’s little doubt that Sirius has farther to fall. Maybe not an absolute crash, but at least 20%.

The low dollar value of the stock, now at $8, conceals a valuation that would have even made the '99-era Internet companies blush. At the current price, Sirius commands a mind-blowing price-to-sales multiple of 188, which means you are paying $188 for every dollar of sales. That is much more than you'd normally pay for stocks of companies with a shot at curing cancer -- and triple the amazing 39 price/sales multiple of XM. Compare these to the most successful software stock of the past five years, Symantec (SYMC, news, msgs), with a sales multiple of 9.5. Apple gets a multiple of 3. It is unsustainable even at the top of the most optimistic analysts' expectations.

For the complete article:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P101820.asp

Regards, Norm

[spikefader]

I'm getting in for even more profit.

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week. Hope it IS profit for you, but profit OR loss on your next trade, whatever you do, make a plan and stick to it. Whether you profit or lose is not the important thing. It's sticking to the plan and electing to ignore emotion that matters. But you know all this anyway :D

Contemplating your entry, perhaps look for the completion of a C correction?? The big wave in the last month has a clear 5 wave move in it, which is often followed by an 'a' down, a 'b' up, and a 'c' down again, before commencing another 5 wave move up. So look for the 'c' entry!!! and not the 'b' entry, where it is now....

Good tradin' with it!

[Websman]

Trading is a neverending learning experience. I learned a valuable lesson when I abruptly jumped ship last week.

Webs,

Can you give us the lesson learned in one paragraph? I mean, if selling SIRI was wrong after a 25% drop,(or whatever the percentage was), where should one have placed the stop-loss? What selling rule, or holding rule, can you give me to learn from your mistake?

Yes, this is a pointed question, but it is also a sincere one. Teach me something! And the very best of investing to you![/QUOTE]


I would like to say that a stop would have helped, but in this case it wouldn't be true. The problem is that most of the price change occured after or before hours. I suppose the solution to this is to have the capability to trade after hours, which I do not. The main lesson for me is the fact that I had a plan to stick with SIRI for the long term, and I broke my rule. Even though SIRI did take a $2 drop, I was still way up, being I was in at a much lower buy point and had a lot of room to play with. I should have looked at the factors that were causing this sharp drop...that being the analysts downgrades and the Wall Street Journal article blasting SIRI. I hesitate to hint at conpsiracy theories, but this appeared to be a coordinated effort to drop the share price and it worked. The truth remanes that Sirius is turning out to be a hot stock for the Christmas season and many investors are buying it like there's no tomorrow.
1. Is this a bubble? Yes.
2.Is it way overvalued? yes
3.Does the price action and run up make sense? No It does not make sense. This is not a stock to try to rationalize and explain why it's not worth it. TZOO certainly isn't worth it's share price, yet the investors who traded it made a fortune.

What is driving the price is the high exposure and the enormous potential of this company. People laughed at me and told me I was crazy when I got in SIRI, but I ended up getting the last laugh. and...it's not over. I'll make plenty more on this stock before it's over. Watch and see.

webs...

[lak]

Yes a stop was useless on this one as by the time the market opened it had dropped like $1.25 already. That is a strange occurance with this stock, so much trading and movement prior to the open, but then a level off and nothing.......... clearly not a daytraders play. Actually it makes it very difficult to gauge anything as far as movement. I get the sense market makers are in there and playing in the morning, where I don't dare to go very often if ever, and then when the bell rings it sits tight at the 'pre' price.

Webs. Good luck on the jumping back in. I am thinking it needs more rest time. But if I see a solid move upward after the market opens....... I might step in. You are correct there is money to be made on this stock, short and long term I believe. Now just have to figure out when to get into the action.

SIRI makes little sense in a many ways....... but in others it is a clearly solid investment choice.

gl all

[Websman]

Yes a stop was useless on this one as by the time the market opened it had dropped like $1.25 already. That is a strange occurance with this stock, so much trading and movement prior to the open, but then a level off and nothing.......... clearly not a daytraders play. Actually it makes it very difficult to gauge anything as far as movement. I get the sense market makers are in there and playing in the morning, where I don't dare to go very often if ever, and then when the bell rings it sits tight at the 'pre' price.

Webs. Good luck on the jumping back in. I am thinking it needs more rest time. But if I see a solid move upward after the market opens....... I might step in. You are correct there is money to be made on this stock, short and long term I believe. Now just have to figure out when to get into the action.

SIRI makes little sense in a many ways....... but in others it is a clearly solid investment choice.

gl all

I layed out of work to watch SIRI today and possibly buy. Here goes the premarket runup again. I'll bet it does the same thing again...runup premarket and stay flat all day.

[lak]

Yep. Bet it does just that.

[lak]

Beginning to feel like I missed the boat again today...............

[Websman]

I might be crazy, but I'm back in with more shares than I had before. Forget what I said about wanting this dog to go down. This dog needs to run!

I still think the chart will be flatter than a pancake again today.

Webs...

[lak]

I bought in again too........... thinking it was a bad move now.

[Websman]

I bought in again too........... thinking it was a bad move now.

yup...bad move. I let you know what I do.

[lak]

i had a stop set and got out fyi

[Websman]

i had a stop set and got out fyi

me too...
I'm hitting burnout. I'm considering closing my trading out until Jan...lol

Update...I got back in at a lower price. I knew better than to get in during the first hour of trading. Yet another valuable lesson learned. I am now holding SIRI.

[spikefader]

..a stop was useless on this one as by the time the market opened it had dropped like $1.25 already. One clarification to be helpful to those who don't realize this, but there are 2 different kinds of stops - limit stops and market stops.

Lak is describing that a 'limit' order would have been useless in the situation. That's true, since had you used one, your position would have remained open while price continued falling.

A market stop order on the other hand would have worked perfectly, albeit making the exit much lower than the previous day, but that's beside the point. The point is the usefulness of stops. And strictly speaking neither kind of stop orderis useless, since they do exactly what they are designed to do - 100 percent of the time therefore they are perfect. Probably one of the few things that can be perfect in trading!

So the bottom line is if this: if you're using a stop, make sure you understand the consequences of the type of stop you're using, and pick the right type of stop for your trade. I use both kinds, and which one I pick depends on the type of stock I'm trading, it's volume, it's volatility etc. Thinly traded stocks can really bite you if you use a market order but the great thing about a market order is that you'll be out of the position and if it's a falling knife you'll preserve the capital that's left in the position.

On many occasions I'll often take an estimated risk that price will bounce on thinly traded stocks, so I'll choose a limit order, but I realize if I do that, there's no guarantee I'll get out of the position at that price. So this is why I watch my trades very closely, using alarms and alerts. And if price has fallen below my limit I reconsider if I should lower the order to chase the bid, or if I should hold it.

This is where it gets tricky, and emotion can enter the situation, which I really don't want. Emotion has caused me to hold and hope, and eventually give up hope :D I'm sure it's happened to most active traders - being proven wrong in a postion, refusing to admit the mistake and "taking their medicine", and holding until the stock is worthless or in low single digits, with no certainty that it will recover.

A classic example is BEL, one of Mr. Market's picks. There is a huge amount of hope at this board that it will recover. I hope it does and you all profit from holding it. But that hope is little consolation to a trader who wasn't diversified, didn't use a stop, and has retired from trading since their capital is gone.

[spikefader]

me too...
I'm hitting burnout. I'm considering closing my trading out until Jan...lol

Update...I got back in at a lower price. I knew better than to get in during the first hour of trading. Yet another valuable lesson learned. I am now holding SIRI. Oh boy. You're on an emotional rollercoaster my friend! I don't know why ya'll bought way above the intraday R2 this morning. You guys gotta learn some patience. Use a limit order to enter at intraday support - ANY support.....just NOT resistance! LOL Do that, and you'll smile more about your entries!!!

EDIT: see chart. The green support line at 7.81 (was resistance, but when broken it becomes support!!) would have you smiling!

[Websman]

Oh boy. You're on an emotional rollercoaster my friend! I don't know why ya'll bought way above the intraday R2 this morning. You guys gotta learn some patience. Use a limit order to enter at intraday support - ANY support.....just NOT resistance! LOL Do that, and you'll smile more about your entries!!!

EDIT: see chart. The green support line at 7.81 (was resistance, but when broken it becomes support!!) would have you smiling!


When will I ever learn...

[Runner]

I surely not a candlestick expert, but looks like SIRI closed in what is known as a evening star.

http://www.litwick.com/indicators/1211.html

[spikefader]

Yes, it's a high reliability reversal pattern.
So back to what I said earlier in the thread:
....look for the 'c' entry!!! and not the 'b' entry, where it is now....
Webs, if it were me, I'd not enter long today, but look to buy the next dip down to about 6.00! Anyway, the caution is duly administered!

[Websman]

How to Identify it

First day is a long white day
Second day is a doji that gaps in the direction of the previous trend
The third day is a black day
What it Means

In an uptrend, the market builds strength on a long white day and gaps open on the second day. However, the second day trades within a small range and closes at or near its open. This scenario generally shows an erosion of confidence in the current trend. Confirmation of the trend reversal is the black third day. The Evening Doji Star indicator is the fully realized bearish Doji Star pattern.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Time will tell...I have a lot of room to play with.

[Runner]

Since I have a day job I carry a PDA that has a gprs card. This allows me to access my trading account. I set my stops after the first 30 minutes of the market being opened. I choose to wait out the first 30 minutes because this is normally the most volatile time of the day. I use stops and so some might say I’m a wimp, but too me this just makes sense. I might even think of it as insurance, but to each his/her own. Yes I’ve been stopped out and then watched the stock rocket up, but things happen. I learned a valuable lesson on NTY about what could happen. We all have herd about hoping when we should be fearing.

[lak]

One clarification to be helpful to those who don't realize this, but there are 2 different kinds of stops - limit stops and market stops.

Lak is describing that a 'limit' order would have been useless in the situation. That's true, since had you used one, your position would have remained open while price continued falling.



I am aware of this but I am not sure which is which in my Trading app. When it comes to selling I have 3 options to place with: Market/Limit/Stop. So i am not sure how to make it a Market stop vs. a Limit Stop.

If I did I would definitely use the market stop, but wasn't and am not sure how to enter that.......... call me a freshman trader if you will. ;)

[lak]

Since I have a day job I carry a PDA that has a gprs card. This allows me to access my trading account. I set my stops after the first 30 minutes of the market being opened. I choose to wait out the first 30 minutes because this is normally the most volatile time of the day. I use stops and so some might say I’m a wimp, but too me this just makes sense. I might even think of it as insurance, but to each his/her own. Yes I’ve been stopped out and then watched the stock rocket up, but things happen. I learned a valuable lesson on NTY about what could happen. We all have herd about hoping when we should be fearing.

I usually never trade in the first half hour either.......... hate it. Sometimes I jump in because I am SO tempted and it usually bites me in the backside. ;)
Also use a PDA to trade........ kinda neat really, and my sidekick I use to check my port all day long......... kinda geeky too......

I don't think of stops as wimpy......... often times they are the smartest thing!

[lak]

Yes, it's a high reliability reversal pattern.
So back to what I said earlier in the thread:

Webs, if it were me, I'd not enter long today, but look to buy the next dip down to about 6.00! Anyway, the caution is duly administered!

$6 price to enter....... wow......... would love to get in at a price like that..... long as it heads back to $9 and not down to $5!

[lak]

When will I ever learn...


Ditto for LAK!

[Websman]

Here is an interesting bit of news on SIRI. Although it didn't affect the share price today, it will definitely help to make Sirius a more profitable company in the future.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
SIRIUS to Provide Real-Time Traffic Data to Vehicles
Tuesday December 14, 8:38 am ET
Satellite Radio Broadcaster Signs with NAVTEQ to Offer Customers Most Up-to-Date Traffic Information


NEW YORK, Dec. 14 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- SIRIUS Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI - News) today announced that it will provide real-time traffic data to vehicles over its nationwide satellite radio network. The company has signed an agreement with NAVTEQ (NYSE: NVT - News), the premier provider of mapping and traffic data reporting services, to offer consumers reliable traffic information in their vehicles.
(Logo: http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19991118/NYTH125 )
The new service will provide consumers with regularly updated traffic information, such as accidents, scheduled road closings, traffic flow data or other traffic-related incidents to help them select the best available route. Traffic information will be integrated into new in-car navigation systems combining route guidance and mapping with traffic. Initially, the service will cover 30 markets and is expected to expand to over 50 markets.

"This new data service will complement SIRIUS' First Traffic audio service by providing a visual representation of current traffic conditions specific to each link of roadway. Over time, additional features will be added to help determine estimated drive times on a given route, based on historical traffic patterns," said Jim Meyer, President of Operations and Sales for SIRIUS. "Combined with an in-car navigational system, consumers will be able to accurately determine the most direct routes through the mapping function, while being continuously informed about potential delays or incidents that could disrupt their travel plans."

According to company officials, SIRIUS automotive and retail partners have shown a high level of interest in the new service, and plan to offer it as a product upgrade for their upcoming navigational systems. The service is also expected to provide an additional revenue stream for SIRIUS, which the company believes will have a positive effect on its average revenue per user (ARPU) when implemented.

"This agreement with NAVTEQ is an excellent example of the types of data services SIRIUS plans to offer to provide even more benefits to our subscribers," added Meyer. "Along with our commercial-free music, plus news, sports and talk shows, you have an unbeatable combination of entertainment and services for drivers across the country."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

[scifos]

I like your new sig

Vulcans make great traders...no emotion. But I'm not a #@$% Vulcan!!!

[Websman]

Thanks! ....

[thebign1]

Yes, it's a high reliability reversal pattern.
So back to what I said earlier in the thread:

Originally Posted by spikefader
....look for the 'c' entry!!! and not the 'b' entry, where it is now....

Webs, if it were me, I'd not enter long today, but look to buy the next dip down to about 6.00! Anyway, the caution is duly administered!

Great advice Spike! I'll place a limit order for $6.00/sh. with all the funds
I had with SIRI before plus the profits. If it goes I'll be averaging up but I'll also have more shares!

[spikefader]

Great advice Spike! I'll place a limit order for $6.00/sh. with all the funds
I had with SIRI before plus the profits. If it goes I'll be averaging up but I'll also have more shares! Also like the 68% retrace zone. This significant FIB support would match up nicely with a 'C' wave correction AND the gap fill........so 3 solid reasons for support in one zone. This area is the bargain basement price and the smart entry. If it doesn't come to it, then doors will open in the future.

[lak]

Also like the 68% retrace zone. This significant FIB support would match up nicely with a 'C' wave correction AND the gap fill........so 3 solid reasons for support in one zone. This area is the bargain basement price and the smart entry. If it doesn't come to it, then doors will open in the future.

Sometimes I am more aware how new I am to this than others........ thanks for that tip!

[Websman]

Uh...Spike and Runner...I'm not so sure SIRI will retrace to $6. It's looking very likely that Sirius may blow out their subscription projections. These things are flying off the shelves. There's also a big rumor about Apple and Sirius announcing a Ipod and Sirius combined unit.

I guess the question is, which will rule this time...the chart or "news hype".
We shall soon see.

Webs...

[Jaws57]

Part of me wants SIRI to fall back............So I can buy more!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jaws57

[lak]

Uh...Spike and Runner...I'm not so sure SIRI will retrace to $6. It's looking very likely that Sirius may blow out their subscription projections. These things are flying off the shelves. There's also a big rumor about Apple and Sirius announcing a Ipod and Sirius combined unit.

I guess the question is, which will rule this time...the chart or "news hype".
We shall soon see.

Webs...

The apple rumor has been around for a while........ even talked about on cnbc since early last week. Supposed to come true around CES. I will be at CES, curious to see if it is true or not.
I feel like this company is doing everything right this year........ I really do, and their subscriptions are going to take off over the holidays.
I would love to get back in long like I was before, but still think it can drop another .25 -.50.

[lak]

SIRI continues the selloff........ We might see 7 by the end of the week.

[spikefader]

Looking at SIRI today, the fact is there is that channel long I spotted earlier. I'm bullish on a C entry and speculated it could come back to 6.00 to complete that C wave. But there is nothing stopping the C from completing above that channel long day...is there?? So it seems to me logical to look for the C entry at all times during the C wave. That means we should be looking for that long now.....and so I am looking keenly at the intraday pattern to justify an entry. Right now, while it looks weak with price falling under intraday S2, there is a double bottom opportunity today at 7.10. It may bounce well off that.

Thefore, I am recommending a buy at 7.15, and should the low fail to hold - say on a closing 5 minute candle, I would recommend looking to exit that long position at the first opportunity with a break even limit order. Then get back in the hunt for looking for another pattern to enter on, since we're looking for the C entry and C has to end sometime. Pray for a simple and classic and perfect pattern formation that is bought. That will become the perfect entry for a ride to new highs. Who has the discipline out there?!

[spikefader]

Charts posted here (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=10430&postcount=1714)

[Websman]

Thanks a bunch for going long Spike! I was wondering if I should sell, but you have convinced me to stay in. I still have a lot of profit on SIRI, but don't want to lose it...lol

SIRI sold off after investors found out that there wouldn't be a deal with apple. It's amazing how the charts always seem to work!

I still say that SIRI will surpass the million subscriber mark by a long shot.

Webs...

[spikefader]

Thanks a bunch for going long Spike! I was wondering if I should sell, but you have convinced me to stay in. I still have a lot of profit on SIRI, but don't want to lose it...lol

SIRI sold off after investors found out that there wouldn't be a deal with apple. It's amazing how the charts always seem to work!

I still say that SIRI will surpass the million subscriber mark by a long shot.

Webs... You're welcome :)
Remember, I'll close this long if today's low doesn't hold....you know me, the hunter of perfect entries :)

[Websman]

You're welcome :)
Remember, I'll close this long if today's low doesn't hold....you know me, the hunter of perfect entries :)

So if SIRI drops to $7.10 tomorrow, we sell. I'm with you on this one Spike. I am far from having a loss, but I would like to preserve my huge profits.
We've already had three down days in a row and SIRI debuts on the QQQQ's tomorrow so the odds are in our favor, though never guaranteed.

I hope you make as much on SIRI as I have Spike!

Webs...

[Websman]

After hours trading on SIRI is very encouraging.

[lak]

I am loving this analysis Spike! Thanks!
Was looking to get in around 7.... Friday might be the time....

[Websman]

I am loving this analysis Spike! Thanks!
Was looking to get in around 7.... Friday might be the time....

I hope you got in today. It's time for this dog to get some revenge on the shorts! Look at it climb after hours...

Spike timed this one just right.

Webs...

[lak]

I hope you got in today. It's time for this dog to get some revenge on the shorts! Look at it climb after hours...

Spike timed this one just right.

Webs...

Sadly I did not.......... kicking myself for this one.
I was not able to get to it, as I was shooting all day.
Hope that on monday it keeps jumping for ya!

I will wait for the next dip or another nice solid entry point....... which could be 8. ;-)

[Websman]

Sadly I did not.......... kicking myself for this one.
I was not able to get to it, as I was shooting all day.
Hope that on monday it keeps jumping for ya!

I will wait for the next dip or another nice solid entry point....... which could be 8. ;-)

Hang in there and you'll make it back in. The way it's looking, Sirius is going to far surpass the 1 million subscriber mark.

I've been enjoying my Sirius receiver. The only problem is that I now have too many channels to choose from. Have you ever tried to drive and change channels when you have 120 of them? It's not easy...lol

Webs...

[lak]

[QUOTE=lak]Sadly I did not.......... kicking myself for this one.
I was not able to get to it, as I was shooting all day.
Hope that on monday it keeps jumping for ya!

I will wait for the next dip or another nice solid entry point....... which could be 8. ;-)[/QUOTE

Hang in there and you'll make it back in. The way it's looking, Sirius is going to far surpass the 1 million subscriber mark.

I've been enjoying my Sirius receiver. The only problem is that I now have too many channels to choose from. Have you ever tried to drive and change channels when you have 120 of them? It's not easy...lol

Webs...

Yep, my girlfriend has sirius and LOVES it.......... I do a lot of driving and am going to get it too. Had xm and didnt' like it that much........ better choices with sirius.

SIRI is getting daytraded like crazy......... volume and the jumps it is making, it is like another RHAT or Taser right now.

Good Luck with it!

[Websman]

I went to Sirius Direct to try to buy another receiver for a gift and it said, "because of spectacular demand, we are out of inventory. Visit one of our fine retailers."

I went to Radio Shack in Pensacola. They were sold out. They said they would have to order it. I'll look again today.

This is a very good sign for the Sub #'s. Hold on to your shares guys. The next subscription announcement will send SIRI straight up.

Webs...

[lak]

Agreed........ they are having a HUGE quarter.

[lak]

The real questions is, do I move back into SIRI in the next day or two......... I just can't seem to decide on this one. I won't put as big a stake as I had in the 2-3$ range that I bought before........... pehaps half the shares I had in the past.

Just thinking outloud.

[Websman]

The real questions is, do I move back into SIRI in the next day or two......... I just can't seem to decide on this one. I won't put as big a stake as I had in the 2-3$ range that I bought before........... pehaps half the shares I had in the past.

Just thinking outloud.

Who knows, you could catch a dip tomorrow.
Good luck...

[Websman]

New Sirius deal...

Go to Sirius direct at www.sirius.com Use promo code #111 and you can get a Sirius Sportster receiver for $49.95. All it requires is prepaying for 6 months service. Not a bad deal at all.
This deal probably won't last long as it's the only thing they have left to sell. I bought one for a Christmas present. (I sound like a Sirius ad, don't I?)

I was going to buy one at Radio Shack, but all the stores in my area were out of stock. I finally found a few units at K-Mart. The Guy at Radio Shack said that they had sold a pile of Sirius radios.

I repeat my prediction - Sirius will blow out their sub predictions and the stock will go higher.

Webs...

[MEA_1956]

Yo Webs... the short time that you were out of SIRI would you have been up or down during that time frame.

[Websman]

Yo Webs... the short time that you were out of SIRI would you have been up or down during that time frame.


Up, unfortunately. But that's ok, I increased my positon to make up for it. So far it's working.

It's looking good again today!

[dmk112]

Up, unfortunately. But that's ok, I increased my positon to make up for it. So far it's working.

It's looking good again today!


At what point did you get back into SIRI?!!? I know you ssold on that big drop....I"m also thinking of getting in b4 the year end

[Websman]

At what point did you get back into SIRI?!!? I know you ssold on that big drop....I"m also thinking of getting in b4 the year end


I'm embarrassed to say that I got back in at $7.99. I should have listened to Spike. I'm already sitting on a pretty good profit, so I'm not complaing too much. It'll go back over my buy price.

Sirius appears to be selling out everywhere. When the number of subscription is announced in January, it's going to start a buying frenzy.

This time, I'm going to listen to Spike when it comes time to get out and in. He's been right more than he's been wrong on this one.

You rock Spike!

[lak]

Yeah....... he was RIGHT ON with that call........
gl

[Runner]

http://img98.exs.cx/img98/6302/siri2df.jpg

Looks like a pop might be coming in SIRI.

[Websman]

Looks like a pop might be coming in SIRI.

I have a feeling that a lot of Sirus receivers are sitting under Christmas trees around the country. Sirius will be swamped with new activations next week. I repeat my prediction that the one million mark will be shattered.
I spend a lot of time driving and have enjoyed my Sirius radio. Once you try it, you'll never go back to regular radio.

[Jaws57]

[QUOTE=Websman]I have a feeling that a lot of Sirus receivers are sitting under Christmas trees around the country. .[/QUOTE

I hope my wife has one under the tree for me, I just bought a new(used car but new to me) that has an "ordinary" radio in it.

If not, I will have to cash in some of MM's profits to buy one!!!

Jaws57

[Websman]

I hope my wife has one under the tree for me, I just bought a new(used car but new to me) that has an "ordinary" radio in it.

If not, I will have to cash in some of MM's profits to buy one!!!

Jaws57

I hope you have a very merry Sirius Christmas Jaws! Hohoho!!!

[lak]

http://img98.exs.cx/img98/6302/siri2df.jpg

Looks like a pop might be coming in SIRI.

So you are seeing a pop around 8?

As I said before Webss....... I agree with the subs number being destroyed!

Still not back into it yet..... but might be soon........

[Websman]

So you are seeing a pop around 8?

As I said before Webss....... I agree with the subs number being destroyed!

Still not back into it yet..... but might be soon........


You better hurry!!!

We're going to be rich!!!! BWAAAAAAAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!

[lak]

You are a SIRI PUSHER! haha
I will be getting in before the end of the year...... at least that is what is on the play book.......

[spikefader]

You are a SIRI PUSHER! haha
I will be getting in before the end of the year...... at least that is what is on the play book.......LOL The hype and emotion is everywhere! And that's great!..........

Just do one thing: Ignore the hype and follow logic. I'm sure you'll make your entry a wise one - buying into weakness at support and not chasing strength at resistance. It will make the difference!

[Websman]

LOL The hype and emotion is everywhere! And that's great!..........

Just do one thing: Ignore the hype and follow logic. I'm sure you'll make your entry a wise one - buying into weakness at support and not chasing strength at resistance. It will make the difference!

Great advice Spock....uh, I mean Spike.

[lak]

Webs...... they passed the one mill mark..........

[lak]

LOL The hype and emotion is everywhere! And that's great!..........

Just do one thing: Ignore the hype and follow logic. I'm sure you'll make your entry a wise one - buying into weakness at support and not chasing strength at resistance. It will make the difference!

Tell me about it! Great advice!
Sadly being as new to Active Investing as I am....... I have chased one to many times...... I think I learned my lesson 2 weeks ago. Finally.
I spent a bunch of days last week retooling, if you will, my system. Hopefully it will pay off in 05!

[Websman]

Webs...... they passed the one mill mark..........


Wait until the total, for the year comes in!

I'm finally back to making a profit!

[canaveraldan]

Yesterday I sold SIRI at 8.26 and used the money to buy into DHB at 20.65. My rational is as follows: SIRI is too risky. Its price increase is due mostly to the expectation of Howard Stern’s arrival in 2006. This gives SIRI a single point failure. What would happen to SIRI’s stock price if Stern (for whatever reason) announces sometime in 2005 that he isn’t going to SIRI in 2006? DHB on the other hand is a very profitable company and is well managed. I think there is money to be made buying DHB on the dips and selling on the peaks without the risk of the company going belly up. Comments?

[abk33139]

Canaveraldan - interesting analysis. I'm actually in both stocks. I got in to DHB yesterday and am planning on holding by SIRI stock (after selling a few hundred shares for a 100% profit) for a while. I'm hoping both stocks will turn out to be winners!

Alison

[spikefader]

Yesterday I sold SIRI at 8.26 and used the money to buy into DHB at 20.65. My rational is as follows: SIRI is too risky. Its price increase is due mostly to the expectation of Howard Stern’s arrival in 2006. This gives SIRI a single point failure. What would happen to SIRI’s stock price if Stern (for whatever reason) announces sometime in 2005 that he isn’t going to SIRI in 2006? DHB on the other hand is a very profitable company and is well managed. I think there is money to be made buying DHB on the dips and selling on the peaks without the risk of the company going belly up. Comments?I don't think you'll go wrong with DHB. Your timing was pretty good, since the channel turn up last week, and catching the entry near lod. I think you're out of SIRI too early - looks to me there's an impulse up left in it - a 5 wave move to form a larger 5th. But you took profit on it, and have your reasons/plan to exit, so congrats.

[spikefader]

Siri entry at S2 levels now for those that want to hop on. Not a bad spot :D

[Websman]

The ANALysts are too funny. Banc of America has set their target price for SIRI at $5.25. Yea right...

[Websman]

Yesterday I sold SIRI at 8.26 and used the money to buy into DHB at 20.65. My rational is as follows: SIRI is too risky. Its price increase is due mostly to the expectation of Howard Stern’s arrival in 2006. This gives SIRI a single point failure. What would happen to SIRI’s stock price if Stern (for whatever reason) announces sometime in 2005 that he isn’t going to SIRI in 2006? DHB on the other hand is a very profitable company and is well managed. I think there is money to be made buying DHB on the dips and selling on the peaks without the risk of the company going belly up. Comments?

Congratulations on your profit!

The only reason Howard Stern may not come to Sirius is if he dies, and I'm sure Sirius has a lot of life insurance on him in case that were to happen. He's staying true to his present contract, so it's not likely that he'll try to screw Sirius.

I agree that DHB is a good investment and may get back in, if it gets beat down a little more.

[Runner]

Looking @ SIRI it appears to have closed in a morning star candlestick, also it is sitting right at the 20 dma. We will see what happens, but I’m bullish on this chart pattern. Using the channels I see off the 7.09 bottom that 7.29 appears to be the channel low? From the 9.43 high I see SIRI is currently sitting at the mid line. I’d say a move up from current point would be bullish and any move down would give me a bearish signal. Comments on this?

[Runner]

Well it looks as if SIRI is set to gap down at the open. We’ll soon see what happens. I think the talking heads has set a little panic in the shareholders minds. Most investors holding are retail and they are easy scared into a panic state. I view gap downs as a sign of weakness and my bias on this stock is changing from bullish to bearish. The action the last few days appear to have shown some churning near the top with sentiment being uncertain. We will all soon see what occurs next.

Best trading,
Runner

[Gatorman]

Well it looks as if SIRI is set to gap down at the open. We’ll soon see what happens. I think the talking heads has set a little panic in the shareholders minds. Most investors holding are retail and they are easy scared into a panic state. I view gap downs as a sign of weakness and my bias on this stock is changing from bullish to bearish. The action the last few days appear to have shown some churning near the top with sentiment being uncertain. We will all soon see what occurs next.

Best trading,
Runner
You are sure right about the talking heads. On Squawk Box this morning, it was interesting to note the analyst who was so much in favor of shorting SIRI reluctantly admitted he also shorted AMZN last year despite all contrary indications and "lost his shorts." It seems emotions rage strongly in "experts" as much or more than it does with we mere mortals and they, more than us, hate to admit when they are wrong.

[spikefader]

Well it looks as if SIRI is set to gap down at the open. We’ll soon see what happens. I think the talking heads has set a little panic in the shareholders minds. Most investors holding are retail and they are easy scared into a panic state. I view gap downs as a sign of weakness and my bias on this stock is changing from bullish to bearish. The action the last few days appear to have shown some churning near the top with sentiment being uncertain. We will all soon see what occurs next.

Best trading,
Runner Channels showning still no reason to panic. Just another buying opportunity today at 7.30 at S2. If we get a channel turn down, I'll be exiting.

[Websman]

Channels showning still no reason to panic. Just another buying opportunity today at 7.30 at S2. If we get a channel turn down, I'll be exiting.

I'll be exiting with you if it turns down, but so far, it's holding.

[Websman]

CNBC keeps bashing SIRI down. It makes you wonder what ther motive is and how far their bashing can influence the stock price.

[Runner]

Hey webs it makes me wonder if they now are on the short side and trying to rake in some big bucks? After all how many people watch these guys? Just a thought…… A few months back I could tell they did not like SIRI and were just waiting for the right time to bash it..

[Websman]

Hey webs it makes me wonder if they now are on the short side and trying to rake in some big bucks? After all how many people watch these guys? Just a thought…… A few months back I could tell they did not like SIRI and were just waiting for the right time to bash it..

According to Spike, the charts don't lie. People lie.
I believe the CNBC guys will do whatever it takes to bring SIRI down as far as they can. I now understand what Spike means. I know that a lot of the chart guys don't even watch the news. I'm starting to think that I need to quit watching CNBC.

I'm going by the chart on this one. Screw CNBC! LOL

Webs...

[Websman]

I thought it might be a good idea to remind you guys of Spikes original plan. I believe his sell price is $6.55. I will have to sell if SIRI drops below $6.95, in order to keep my original SIRI profits. I'm posting the link to Spikes original chart.

http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=242

[billyjoe]

Does anyone on this thread believe SIRI will go below 7 soon?
billyjoe

[Websman]

Does anyone on this thread believe SIRI will go below 7 soon?
billyjoe

I believe it will. The question is when?

[Websman]

I believe it will. The question is when?

Oh yea...I also liquidated my SIRI position. I decided to protect my excellent gains, I've already made.

I am now in cash.

[spikefader]

Guys I see today that there was a channel short :-( and there is the channel turn down. I am moving stop to even now and will look to exit at R2 intraday. There will be better times to be long SIRI. Just not now.

[Runner]

This is my chart check up on SIRI. Blue arrow long would have been the best play, but several other buy signals were given along the run. Notice the RSI as it surged into overbought territory. Just like many stocks the ADX has been getting weak for some time. I think it may be possible for a bounce off current prices bases on STO showing a hook-up. Todays action will give better signal. I would become bullish on this stock if it can close above 7.80.
Any comments on this check-up?
http://img97.exs.cx/img97/9571/siri1qt.png

[lak]

Oh yea...I also liquidated my SIRI position. I decided to protect my excellent gains, I've already made.

I am now in cash.

The Evangelest is out! Head for the Hills! ;-)

[Websman]

The Evangelest is out! Head for the Hills! ;-)

Yes, I have backslid...I am no longer faithful to SIRI. I believe SIRI is in for a correction, before it goes back up.

GO DOWN SIRI..........GO DOWN!!!! BWHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!

[Jaws57]

I think it may be possible for a bounce off current prices bases on STO showing a hook-up. Todays action will give better signal. I would become bullish on this stock if it can close above 7.80.
Any comments on this check-up?


Looks like we got the bounce, but with the good news from Ford I would have thought more upside and more volume, on the other hand it was up on a decidedly down day for the market.
I am already in long but I am not going to add anything right now.

Jaws57

[Runner]

Not for sure, but looks as if SIRI has set up off an inverted head and shoulders?
http://img147.exs.cx/img147/2175/siri1fi.png

[Runner]

Oh well that did not work right. I thought that we may have been getting a bounce in the market...

[New-born baby]

Webs,

Well, where are all the buyers? Drudge reported today that SIRI is going to incorporate video into their units in 2006. Time to invest?

Have a great year in 2005.

[Websman]

SIRI definitely has some great news and a very bright future. This is going to be a huge and successful company. I fully expect Sirius to surpass XM in subscribers, because of the fact that they are much more innovative company. SIRI will eventually be hugely profitable.
All I need is a good correction and I'll get back in. I still think it's overbought at this point.

BTW...I now have 2 Sirius receivers and haven't listened to FM radio since I've had them.

[spikefader]

I notice a very small and insignificant channel long yesterday. Wondering whether we should buy that..... If we were to, the pivot today at 7.57 would be the play. Maybe I'll just watch it and contemplate more. Maybe wait to chase a channel turn up???? It's just hard to be aggressive right now. I prefer to enter on weakness.....give myself an edge.

[Websman]

Webs,

Well, where are all the buyers? Drudge reported today that SIRI is going to incorporate video into their units in 2006. Time to invest?

Have a great year in 2005.

Ever heard the saying, "buy on rumor, sell on news"? I say it's overbought. I'll buy SIRI at $6.

[Websman]

Ever heard the saying, "buy on rumor, sell on news"? I say it's overbought. I'll buy SIRI at $6.

...or $7 lol

[Websman]

I notice a very small and insignificant channel long yesterday. Wondering whether we should buy that..... If we were to, the pivot today at 7.57 would be the play. Maybe I'll just watch it and contemplate more. Maybe wait to chase a channel turn up???? It's just hard to be aggressive right now. I prefer to enter on weakness.....give myself an edge.


Watch those emotions Spike!...lol

[spikefader]

Watch those emotions Spike!...lolEvery day! :D
Looking closer at it, there ISN'T a channel long!! I will chase the next channel turn up then. Whew, glad THAT's settled :D

And the weekly channel from the recent top is clearly bullish. This thing is whispering it's going higher! Go SIRI.....time to rock.

[Runner]

I was thinking the weekly chart on SIRI seems to be looking pretty good. Despite the sell off these last days this stock has held it’s ground.

[billyjoe]

I've been snow/ice bound for 2 days so am watching business tv. For all SIRI fans, Mel Karmazin will be on CNBC at noon est today.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Karmazin projects a very credible image . I detect little b.s. and no flim-flam.
It was also reported today that Howard Stern was removed from several more stations for using the "s" word and the word was sirius.
billyjoe

[Websman]

It is possible that I get on board with the Big Dog soon. I remain with my prediction that Sirius is going to be bigger tham XM.

[ytown12]

XMSR has about a 7 bill market cap. SIRI even after the past few weeks still has a 9 bil market cap.

[spikefader]

It is possible that I get on board with the Big Dog soon. I remain with my prediction that Sirius is going to be bigger tham XM. Caution caution with SIRI. I'd wait for a channel long day! Two channel turndowns today.....

[New-born baby]

Ever heard the saying, "buy on rumor, sell on news"? I say it's overbought. I'll buy SIRI at $6.

You may have your chance REAL soon!

By the way, take a look at TASR this morning. Down about $4.35 as I write, or about 22% in one hour . . . . OUCH!!!

[spikefader]

You may have your chance REAL soon!

By the way, take a look at TASR this morning. Down about $4.35 as I write, or about 22% in one hour . . . . OUCH!!!TASR - good spot to be lookin'!

[New-born baby]

Spike,

TASR-bad news for them. They are being investigated for their over reporting of sales, and also the effect of their stun guns. That's why the drop.

Yes, I've been watching it for a possible entry!

[spikefader]

Spike,

TASR-bad news for them. They are being investigated for their over reporting of sales, and also the effect of their stun guns. That's why the drop.

Yes, I've been watching it for a possible entry!intraday chart looking slippery. I'd wait for 21.50 entry, but if she breaks, I'd be out to look patiently for intraday 5 wave completion entry.

[Websman]

It would be great if SIRI dropped tp $5 a share and TASR went to $15. I love bargains.

[New-born baby]

WEBS,

LOOKOUT BELOW! SIRI is in serious trouble. XMSR came out with NEWS today that has led XMSR shares higher, and sent SIRI plummetting. XM is going to counter SIRI's Howard Stern, video, and all the promos, by introducing a new POLKA CHANNEL. That's right, XMSR is going to polka your world. SIRI for $5 is a real possibility. The big dog is in real trouble now.

[jiesen]

look no further, IMO...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XMSR&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=siri

The next market to be penetrated by these two companies will be the toilet paper market. That's right, 2005 or 2006 will see many butts wiped clean with these stocks. (Just my worthless opinion of course)

What I based this on is a quick glance at the finances of XMSR, which showed that last year while they sold over $200M worth of stock to the hungry masses, they racked up over $300M in administrative charges (these don't usually go away) on less than $200M revenue (but this often does). Something just doesn't add up... or have they already figured out that they're selling $30 pieces of TP?

[Websman]

look no further, IMO...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XMSR&t=2y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=siri

The next market to be penetrated by these two companies will be the toilet paper market. That's right, 2005 or 2006 will see many butts wiped clean with these stocks. (Just my worthless opinion of course)



The best part about it Jeisen, is that I'm the one who sold them the toilet paper!!! LOL

[spikefader]

The best part about it Jeisen, is that I'm the one who sold them the toilet paper!!! LOL :) You a smart guy!

I may have posted this before, but good for review anyway.

[df21084]

I heard on the Fox program Cashin' In yesterday that SIRI was the stock to buy on Monday morning.

I'm curious to see what SIRI does tomorrow.

Regards.

[spikefader]

I heard on the Fox program Cashin' In yesterday that SIRI was the stock to buy on Monday morning.

I'm curious to see what SIRI does tomorrow.

Regards.Ya, just when it's starting to look weak they pump it up :D Now I know for sure it's time to wait for better prices.

[df21084]

Ya, just when it's starting to look weak they pump it up :D Now I know for sure it's time to wait for better prices.

You're right. If that's not a signal not to buy, I don't know what is. :D

[New-born baby]

df,

You'll know SIRI is dead, dead, dead, when you see Jim Cramer recommend it . . . . .

[df21084]

df,

You'll know SIRI is dead, dead, dead, when you see Jim Cramer recommend it . . . . .

SIRI down 10% in early morning trading. Maybe a good buying opportunity is coming soon.

[spikefader]

SIRI down 10% in early morning trading. Maybe a good buying opportunity is coming soon.6.00 gap filled. That was the play. See how that gap support can really hold. Now trading 6.54! I will wait for another day.

[Websman]

6.00 gap filled. That was the play. See how that gap support can really hold. Now trading 6.54! I will wait for another day.

I will wait in the bushes for a good buying opportunity to pounce on...SIRI under $6? Tomorrow will tell.

[spikefader]

I will wait in the bushes for a good buying opportunity to pounce on...SIRI under $6? Tomorrow will tell.I'll be watching for the usual :D

[Websman]

I'll be watching for the usual :D

That would be UNDER $6...sounds good to me.

[Runner]

Looks like SIRI is running in pre market. Tasr still getting slapped in pre-trading 19.30

[Runner]

Forget about last post on SIRI it just got slapped from +.30 to +.08 oh well market look weak going into the open

[Websman]

I have two Sirius receivers in my vehicles and love them, but that doesn't mean I wouldn't buy stock in the competitor, XM radio.

Take a look at XMSR. It looks to be bouncing back from a couple of weeks of selling pressure. XMSR gapped up today, so I'll be looking for a quick gap fill tomorrow, before it continues up.

[Websman]

Everybody is losing interest in SIRI, including myself. I think we'll see it drop below $6, before it starts up again. I will buy again when the time is right.

[Michaelk005]

I am buying a nice chunk of SIRI below $6. I think this is a perfect time, as you stated Webs, intrest has been lost. HOlding and waiting for a nice piece of news should have a nice reward behind it...

[spikefader]

This is a good play to wait for:

[CabrioM3]

Spike fader can you please Explain for us laymen... Trying to learn what I can.

Thanks,
John

[dmk112]

That's what happens when a stock get bought on popularity...this thing can go back down to $3 in no time...

[spikefader]

Spike fader can you please Explain for us laymen... Trying to learn what I can.

Thanks,
John
Gaps act as very good support and resistance, depending on which side price is on. If price is below a gap, the gap will resist price when it rises to it. If price is above a gap, the gap will support price when price drops to it. Why do they act this way? Perhaps the self-fulfilling phenomenon is the reason. If traders have a common belief that gaps act act this way, the result is that a sensible trader using good judgement will sell out of a position at resistance, and buy into a position at support. A gap is just the line in the sand where many people make a decision. If there is no support at a gap when price drops to it, then it's simply support being insufficient to hold price above it....and that knowledge about a 'supposed' good support area is a bearish thing. Same thing with a gap not resisting price when it rises to it....it means a supposed good resistance point doesn't have enough sellers at it to keep price down, so this is a bullish thing.

Same thing with the Fibonacci retrace lines and the regression channel I've drawn. These lines are generally accepted as good support lines. They are good places to buy in.

If you don't employ Gap theory in your trading, I suggest you learn all about them. They are very useful and should not be underestimated.

[CabrioM3]

Gaps act as very good support and resistance, depending on which side price is on. If price is below a gap, the gap will resist price when it rises to it. If price is above a gap, the gap will support price when price drops to it. Why do they act this way? Perhaps the self-fulfilling phenomenon is the reason. If traders have a common belief that gaps act act this way, the result is that a sensible trader using good judgement will sell out of a position at resistance, and buy into a position at support. A gap is just the line in the sand where many people make a decision. If there is no support at a gap when price drops to it, then it's simply support being insufficient to hold price above it....and that knowledge about a 'supposed' good support area is a bearish thing. Same thing with a gap not resisting price when it rises to it....it means a supposed good resistance point doesn't have enough sellers at it to keep price down, so this is a bullish thing.

Same thing with the Fibonacci retrace lines and the regression channel I've drawn. These lines are generally accepted as good support lines. They are good places to buy in.

If you don't employ Gap theory in your trading, I suggest you learn all about them. They are very useful and should not be underestimated.

Thanks, So the chart you provided shows possible support around 5? Am I reading it correctly?

Any books on gap theory you can suggest, websites?

I sold my Siri holdings for an 84% gain, that stock with this market looks
pretty scary to me! I'll pick up my postion later, I am sure at a much cheaper pps.

Thanks
John

[spikefader]

Thanks, So the chart you provided shows possible support around 5?........Any books on gap theory you can suggest, websites?...sold my Siri holdings for an 84% gain...
Yep, support around 5.00 - combined gap, FIB, and channel support. The more technical support, the more likely there is for a good and tradeable bounce. No guarantees of course, and do your own DD. I'll be looking to trade it, and I'll be using a tight stop with it to minimize pain if I'm wrong. I won't be a long-term bagholder of SIRI.

Oh, and nice trade!

[Websman]

Boy am I glad I cashed out my SIRI profits! I'd be kicking myself if I would have held on.

Let's get this baby down to $5 so we can make more money!

[spikefader]

:D Ya, good job Webs. Wisdom and excellence!
Here's just a couple thoughts for today on SIRI. I'll be waiting for it to prove itself before I put my toe in the water.

[Gatorman]

:D Ya, good job Webs. Wisdom and excellence!
Here's just a couple thoughts for today on SIRI. I'll be waiting for it to prove itself before I put my toe in the water.
It sure does look like it headed for a gap fill around $2.79 doesn't it!

[Websman]

It sure does look like it headed for a gap fill around $2.79 doesn't it!
I have a buddy that's holding 5,000 shares. I hope for his sake it doesn't go down that far. But, I hope for my sake it does, so I can buy 5,000 shares for myself.

[New-born baby]

Spike and Spock,

Let's change your perspective on SIRI from Long to Short. This has to be the safest stock in the world to short. WHY?

1. No dividend to cover.
2. Price to Sales at about 800! That's lunar in scope! It can't stay up there forever.
3. The cute little dog commercials that got all those working women to invest in SIRI have quit playing. Christmas is over. This thing ought to report "losses" very soon, shouldn't it?

Webs, you are a great guy, but a SIRI long position makes me shudder for you. I'd rather see you invest in Jim Cramer's advice. Remember MM's mantra: earnings, earnings, earnings. As a friend let me suggest that you don't buy stocks that don't have them.

[Runner]

I like this SIRI chart!

http://img158.exs.cx/img158/9344/siri5mw.png

[Websman]

I would not attempt to short SIRI. It may keep going down, but any little bit of good news will send this dog shooting straight back up. I will keep watching and waiting.

We're going to see phenominal growth for Sirius this year. Especially towards the end of the year. Howard Stern will bring in tons of young freaks who will pay good money to hear his filth. Of course, I must admit that I kind of like Howards junvenile nonsense myself, especially his show on E-TV. Also Ford and Daimler/Chrysler will be doing factory installs. It's just a matter of time before Sirius exceeds XM in subscribers. Sirius is quickly becoming the hippest and hottest gadget, next to the IPOD for the under 30 crowd. Just watch and see what happens.
I have a friend who sold his SIRI shares when he found out that Stern was coming onboard and he missed the great profit he would have made. His portfolio was flat for 2004, while my returns went ballistic and I became huge. He let his personal disgust of Stern get in the way of his chances of making a profit. Look for another big run on SIRI again towards the end of the year.

For now though...I want to see this dog drop to $3!

[CabrioM3]

In a bear market situation, like we are in today, this stock has nothing to offer! What is a stock but a buble anyway especially when companies go broke, exec's go bad, and the market picks up momentum to the downside, taking all stocks with it?

Are not all stocks bubbles? Some like Siri more than others? Okay Howard Stern, NFL(which turned out to be a big non event) and oh nothing else big! So we should expect this stock to go to the moon like Google or Tasr? Come on folks at least they have cash and profits out the roof! And Siri --- can't even pay they're employees!


Reality check

[spikefader]

In a bear market situation, like we are in today, this stock has nothing to offer! ............ Reality check
Here's a reality check for SIRI bears. This chart whispers higher prices to me. It's just a matter of when. Sure, things can get ugly, like my previous chart, but let's not underestimate the potential that is possible. Sure it's possible it can go broke, but sure it's possible something magical and unexpected will happen. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happens. Bubble? Sure, why not. That's a wonderful phenomenon of the market. Why not exploit it? Bubbles are great! :D

[Websman]

I have already exploited SIRI and will do it again! All I need is a good entry price.

[New-born baby]

Webs,

I came very near to shorting SIRI at the open. It bounced up to 5.80, and I thought about shorting 1000 shares for a quick daytrade. It didn't have all that bad a day, though. It did drop down to about 5.63 or so, so I could have picked up about $155 after commisions. But I have to say it looked healthier today that I thought it would.

[CabrioM3]

Here's a reality check for SIRI bears. This chart whispers higher prices to me. It's just a matter of when. Sure, things can get ugly, like my previous chart, but let's not underestimate the potential that is possible. Sure it's possible it can go broke, but sure it's possible something magical and unexpected will happen. Wouldn't be the first time such a thing happens. Bubble? Sure, why not. That's a wonderful phenomenon of the market. Why not exploit it? Bubbles are great! :D

I cashed out 25000@6 this week, purchased for an average price of 3.11.
I am totally optimistic on this product, have it in my home and cars listen to it everyday. But as a stock I don't think it has bottomed and won't bottom till the market bottoms. And what if the market does not come back anytime soon?

Last summer it hit its low on or about August 17th, the same date the market bottomed!

I think a continued free fall is very possible. I understand that over 70% of its holders are individuals and not MM's, thus individuals are unstable like cattle and can stampede at any moment.

I can't say I am a blind Siriun follower nor can I say I am a bear! but instead I am trying to be realistic! :wink:



John

[New-born baby]

Webs, et al,

Well the talk now is SIRI and XMSR are going to merge. Read it on the Drudge report.

[Runner]

http://img32.exs.cx/img32/8099/siri2oh.png

What the SIRI is going on???

[Runner]

Is this thing trying too stair step up???

[CabrioM3]

I am waiting to see if we get the after earnings dip.

Anythoughts on buying Siri?

John

[Runner]

http://img182.exs.cx/img182/8019/siri5ib.png

Wonder if it will hold??

[Websman]

The only thing that concerns me is the lack of volume on SIRI today.
Teach me a lesson Spike. Do you consider this an issue?

Webs...The naive young Vulcan.

[Runner]

Very good observation Webs, I think your right, my timeframe in this market is reduced and I’m mainly looking @ 5-60 min. intraday charts. I have noticed the past few days reversals have been working… I’m still playing the DT thing, but the low volume on SIRI is something I’d be a little concerned about. Lets see what tomorrow brings….

[CabrioM3]

I have noticed that each days volume has been less then the day before since its Recent bottom in the $5's. The only high day was yesterday when its pps was down, of course that was a CC day.

I Wonder if the Merger Rumor was started to obscure some basic questions relating to: Greater losses, more cash burn and further Dilution? ...hmmm

I saw no particular reason to throw money at Siri after this CC?

John

[Runner]

Well from a daily perspective on SIRI I’m Bearish the volume has decreased again today and it appears too be setting up in an evening star candlestick…. Best intraday play I’ve been able to see was 6.10-6.15. Very tricky set up on this stock..

http://img177.exs.cx/img177/3971/siri9gl.png

[CabrioM3]

"Evening Star Candlestick" ---please explain!

Seems to me like we might see a downward drift. Siri likes to build to a yearly year end top!

CC over -with wider losses, Holiday excitement gone, Upside Volume disintigrating, Can't see MM's wanting a piece of Siri yet.


John

[New-born baby]

John,

Yes, it looks like the "sun is setting on SIRI" with that evening star formation! But everytime I write this thing off as a piece of junk, about 35 million buyers step up and move the price higher. So what do I know?

[Runner]

CabrioM3 maybe this link will help explain what a evening star is http://www.litwick.com/indicators/1252.html

[CabrioM3]

John,

Yes, it looks like the "sun is setting on SIRI" with that evening star formation! But everytime I write this thing off as a piece of junk, about 35 million buyers step up and move the price higher. So what do I know?

I know what you mean, you could imagine how I felt this week! Having sold out at 6 weeks ago, I had indigestion this week as it climbed to 6.5!

I have been trying to learn about adding candlesticks to my charting, in fact I am going to spend this cold gray weekend in the books!

I was just wondering how the evening star was identified, I cannot see it in the books exactly like he shows on the thread.



Thanks to all for sharing!
John

[CabrioM3]

Okay he said it "appears" to be setting up, I see the star, and the volume concurs. Would this be what the book calls an "Evening Doji Star"


John

[Runner]

John, candles are cool when they work, but many times they can fool ya. I’d say the evening star is a pretty good indicator. If I see one of those babies I’ll close out my swing position. Now I have done this and the stock continues to climb, but more times than not the price drops…


Edit: Candle link http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/CandlestickDictionary.htm

[CabrioM3]

Runner, Thank you, I went back six months on siri(I am using siri while I study through candlesticks) and can't see any other stars and it looks to me like there was another one on 1/21?


John

Thanks for the link

[Runner]

John, I guess I named the candle incorrectly. Friday was an evening doji or a sign of indecision on behave of the buyers and sellers. I think SIRI might drop Monday and it will be interesting to find out. I come to this conclusion from the volume. The circles on the chart indicate a evening star and morning star. Notice what happens after this? The candle I see on 1/21 indicates a hammer. When I see these I think Hammer it up. Remember nothing is set in stone and SIRI very well could made a liar out of me…lolo

http://img197.exs.cx/img197/2701/siri4ms.png

[New-born baby]

Runner,

From my candlesticking study, I'd say you are right on .

Fundamentally, SIRI is not a stock I'd stick money into. I might short the thing, but long, with price/sales in a lunar orbit...too much for me. Another gripe I have with SIRI is that most of its movement is before/after hours. It only moves a couple of cents during the regular sessions. Too risky. Moves too much when I am not watching it.

[CabrioM3]

John, I guess I named the candle incorrectly. Friday was an evening doji or a sign of indecision on behave of the buyers and sellers. I think SIRI might drop Monday and it will be interesting to find out. I come to this conclusion from the volume. The circles on the chart indicate a evening star and morning star. Notice what happens after this? The candle I see on 1/21 indicates a hammer. When I see these I think Hammer it up. Remember nothing is set in stone and SIRI very well could made a liar out of me…lolo

http://img197.exs.cx/img197/2701/siri4ms.png

Runner I'm sorry I referred to the wrong date, I meant 1/24, is it a star?
Okay I see fridays Eveniing Doji star.


John

[CabrioM3]

Wow good stuff! Lit wick and stokcharts!

Do either of you belong to these for your charting services?
I have nothing now that will produce candlestick charts other then msn money, and am not sure if they show candlesticks real time.

I wont hold you to your opinions of where you think this may go, thats the nature of the beast, for both siri and stocks in general, all we can do is learn more and try to detect trends... so no disclaimers needed!
Nothings more humbling





John

[Runner]

John, I have a subscription with stockcharts. I do like the scan feature they have, also like the amount of charts I can save and view latter.

[CabrioM3]

Been messing around with it today and I think I can cancel some other subscriptions elsewhere as this site looks quite comprehensive, its got bollingerbands and countless other tools. Thanks


John

[CabrioM3]

How does after market activity affect Candlesticks? As an example siri on Thursday the 27th, Appears to be an up day but really is down from the previous close! Only cause it retraced some of its lose does it appear white or empty. So does this get reflected by a gap? And New born Baby I suppose this is exactly what you meant about the activities outside the trading day.


I am currently reading Steve Nison's books.

John

[Runner]

Watching to see if SIRI turns here or not!!
http://img101.exs.cx/img101/3112/siri0hp.png

[Runner]

Oh well too much pressure on this thing, looks to be falling like a knife!!

[Runner]

Now I'm wondering if this spike low was a temp bottom?
http://img37.exs.cx/img37/9046/siri2kv.png

[New-born baby]

Runner,

On another forum they are shorting SIRI with a bottom near 5.38. Their viewpoint is that they love the runnup on lower volume, and buying on emotion and commercials instead of fundamental news. We'll see. As I said before, it is a very safe short because it has no profits. You could hold your short a long time and make it pay. And its a long time until next Christmas.

[spikefader]

Runner,

On another forum they are shorting SIRI with a bottom near 5.38. Their viewpoint is that they love the runnup on lower volume, and buying on emotion and commercials instead of fundamental news. We'll see. As I said before, it is a very safe short because it has no profits. You could hold your short a long time and make it pay. And its a long time until next Christmas.
I dunno, but I don't think it's gonna fall that far. I'm still seeing an inverted SHS on the daily, with R shoulder forming now. Maybe 6.00 or so?? The door of opportunity is still wide open for a strong run up and gap up island reversal leading to test of Dec highs and maybe beyond. That's the positive view anyway :D

[Websman]

[I will buy if it drops back below $6.

[New-born baby]

Runner,

On another forum they are shorting SIRI with a bottom near 5.38. Their viewpoint is that they love the runnup on lower volume, and buying on emotion and commercials instead of fundamental news. We'll see. As I said before, it is a very safe short because it has no profits. You could hold your short a long time and make it pay. And its a long time until next Christmas.

Spike,

The target is 5.31 (I incorrectly stated 5.38) because that is just above recent lows (support).

If it were to fall that far, it would take probably 3-5 days. The thing about shorters is that every one is a guaranteed buyer of the stock. And buying pushes the price upwards.

[Runner]

Pre M long off 6.15 also support intraday channel touch @ 6.15

[CabrioM3]

4 doji in a short time frame! So what would one deduce from that? Is this a sign that the bulls have about lost it here? I know one can't predict and I don't expect a prediction. I happen to be in the middle of Nisson's books so am just trying to identify general patterns and notice this


BTW I joined stockcharts: great, excellent ...etc
Thank you, Runnner!


John

[Runner]

John, I hope you like stockcharts. I really like how you can save all your charts. Also you will find the candle glance view will allow you to search through hundreds of charts in very little time. I picked up a bullish move on SIRI yesterday off intraday charts, but who knows if it will hold. SIRI currently fails one of my rules with the 10,20 EMA on the daily chart!!

Example of the 10-20-30 ema, Notice the turn points off the 30
http://img211.exs.cx/img211/5420/siri2jc.png

[lak]

[I will buy if it drops back below $6.
Ditto that call!

[Runner]

I was just wondering if it hit bottom @ 6.10?

[lak]

Perhaps......... it is turning

[Runner]

http://img67.exs.cx/img67/1913/siri4om.png

[Runner]

Bot it @ 6.12 Stop 6.05

[Runner]

Not sure if I should hold overnight or not....

[Runner]

Closed it @ 6.16

[Websman]

Ditto that call!

The volume is still weak. We may see SIRI go under $5 before summer...

[New-born baby]

The volume is still weak. We may see SIRI go under $5 before summer...

The Queen of the Vulcans must have been talking some sense to you. I still say 5.31 . . . . the short is still in place. Volume is low, as you say.

[Websman]

The Queen of the Vulcans must have been talking some sense to you. I still say 5.31 . . . . the short is still in place. Volume is low, as you say.

I love my Sirius Radio, but I'm in this game to make money, and I see SIRI going down during the first part of the year. I think we'll get our best price in June and we'll see SIRI make a good run towards the end of the year. This is pure speculation of course.

[spikefader]

The volume is still weak. We may see SIRI go under $5 before summer...I've seen plenty of stocks actually rise significantly after weak volume. In fact, check out SIRI's chart and you'll see the same thing. I'm remaining bullish while the recent channel long day remains intact and the channel stays upwards.

[Websman]

I've seen plenty of stocks actually rise significantly after weak volume. In fact, check out SIRI's chart and you'll see the same thing. I'm remaining bullish while the recent channel long day remains intact and the channel stays upwards.

I won't rule out going long yet, but I would like an entry below $5.

[CabrioM3]

I did a three month chart on siri and see an interesting pattern:
Ever since it hit the $9 range it is has created a series of downward "Rounded humps" with each step down.
Don't know if it means anything but i thought it looked interesting.


John

[lak]

I think, like the articles that were released today, people have lost interest in Sat Radio as a whole. That SIRI buzz is needed to make it fly again.........

[spikefader]

..but I would like an entry below $5.you bargain hunter you! :D

[Websman]

you bargain hunter you! :D

Thanks! I can be patient...

[scifos]

Webs, you may be interested in this: Sirius recievers in iPods
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6a72ab42-7ac1-11d9-a8c9-00000e2511c8.html

[Websman]

Webs, you may be interested in this: Sirius recievers in iPods
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/6a72ab42-7ac1-11d9-a8c9-00000e2511c8.html


Thanks! Very interesting. With Mel at the wheel, Sirius is going to be huge.

[Websman]

I wanted a price below $5 on SIRI, but after reveiwing the chart and possible news, I'm thinking that now is the time to get back in at $6.
I may consider placing a buy order in the morning with a limit of $6.05.
I don't like having to set limit orders, but going to work is a neccessity. Would anyone want to consider donating a few million bucks to my Paypal account so I could stay home for a while???

[Websman]

Spike, It looks like SIRI is has finally stabilized and has formed a base. The Bollinger Bands are also sqeezing tighter. It looks to me there should a big move, either up or down, in the near future. I'm thinking up.
What do you think? Are you still bullish?

[CabrioM3]

The 2nd week of november is it gave a head fake at the end of the squeeze. According to Bollinger, "Once a headfaker always a headfaker".

At the end of june it had a squeeze, but went down, although the whole market went down too.





John

[Websman]

The 2nd week of november is it gave a head fake at the end of the squeeze. According to Bollinger, "Once a headfaker always a headfaker".

At the end of june it had a squeeze, but went down, although the whole market went down too.





John

So, I'm assuming that you mean by "headfake", SIRI should do the opposite of what the normal reaction would be.

Enlighten me. Are you saying that you think SIRI should go down further? I'm not that familiar with the whole Bollinger theory. I need to study it some more.

[CabrioM3]

So, I'm assuming that you mean by "headfake", SIRI should do the opposite of what the normal reaction would be.

Enlighten me. Are you saying that you think SIRI should go down further? I'm not that familiar with the whole Bollinger theory. I need to study it some more.


Websman,

A headfake is where at the end of the squeeze the stock will go in one direction for a session or two then take off in the other direction.
In november siri went into the Bollinger band squeeze for many sessions around 3.91 then did a quick dip to around 3.84 and then shot upward. Look at the November 04 chart and you'll see how it faked like it was gonna fall then bursted up.

John Bollinger says that if a stock does a headfake once in a squeeze it will do it each time.

Sorry about adding in June/July's movement, I just brought it up as an example of a squeeze that ended bearish.

I have no idea where siri is going! A squeeze means low volatility: Low volatiliy leads to high volatility, in either direction. Your correct, its gonna move big one way or the other!


John :-?

[spikefader]

Spike, It looks like SIRI is has finally stabilized and has formed a base. The Bollinger Bands are also sqeezing tighter. It looks to me there should a big move, either up or down, in the near future. I'm thinking up.
What do you think? Are you still bullish?
I'm neutral on it. Channel turn down from the low at 5.28, and a channel short day today. It's vulnerable where it is. Also, the larger potential SHS with recent neckline break targets 2.60, so that's a problem. Better times to be long for sure.

[CabrioM3]

I'm neutral on it. Channel turn down from the low at 5.28, and a channel short day today. It's vulnerable where it is. Also, the larger potential SHS with recent neckline break targets 2.60, so that's a problem. Better times to be long for sure.

Spike,

Take a look at XMSR charts. Now that "earnings excitement" is past it seems to be losing volume and going flat.

Do you see anything on the XMSR chart that may give some insite into these two "Sister" stocks overall?

Also can you please tell me the Shoulder right, and the Shoulder left price points?

Thanks,
John

[spikefader]

Spike,

Take a look at XMSR charts. Now that "earnings excitement" is past it seems to be losing volume and going flat.

Do you see anything on the XMSR chart that may give some insite into these two "Sister" stocks overall?

Also can you please tell me the Shoulder right, and the Shoulder left price points?

Thanks,
John
John,
Neutral on XMSR today. It had a weekly channel long recently, but today the daily is producing a channel short day. If it breaks the channel then I'd change my stance to bullish, with a view to attempting to enter at intrday pattern/support somewhere.
The R shoulder for SIRI is at 6.70 and the L is 4.29 with the SHS creating over the last 5 months. The pattern would lose it's credibility if 6.70 gets broken.

[CabrioM3]

Spikefader, many thanks! You're really helping me to learn.


John

[spikefader]

Sure, anytime.

[IIC]

SEC Probing Possible Insider Trading In Sirius -Report

NEW YORK-The Securities and Exchange Commission has launched an insider-trading probe of shock jock Howard Stern's deal to join Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI), the New York Post reports Saturday.

In the two weeks running up to the blockbuster announcement last October, Sirius stock soared nearly 40%.

The SEC is looking to determine if someone who knew the deal was coming started buying up stock in anticipation of shares skyrocketing when the news got out, the Post said.

Friday, New York gossip journalist Chaunce Hayden, a frequent guest on the Stern show, received a subpoena from the SEC, the Post said.

He was told he needs to appear before the SEC on Wednesday to answer questions about what he heard in Stern's studio around the time of the Oct. 6 announcement that Stern was leaving free radio for Sirius.

The subpoena is seeking information about "trading in securities of Sirius Satellite Radio," according to a copy obtained by the Post.

Hayden told the Post an SEC official told him the agency was investigating allegations of insider trading.

A Sirius spokesman told the newspaper: "We have no reason to believe this matter involves Sirius or any actions of its officers, directors or employees, and neither Sirius nor any of its officers, directors or employees have received a subpoena in this matter."

An official for the SEC declined comment. A representative for Stern was unavailable for comment, the Post said.

[spikefader]

I'm neutral on it. Channel turn down from the low at 5.28, and a channel short day today. It's vulnerable where it is. Also, the larger potential SHS with recent neckline break targets 2.60, so that's a problem. Better times to be long for sure.
SEC Probing Possible Insider Trading In Sirius -Report
Here's the chart for SIRI today. The blue and gray channel turn downs are the whisper of lower prices. The news IIC reports to us could be a fundamental reason for price to fall to fill the volume by price void, and to test pink channel support, possibly leading to gap fills and/or SHS targets.
Warning to SIRI longs.

[CabrioM3]

Its a little late for the warning! It could be like the perfect storm, the technicals look bad, Christmas cheer is over and now we have the SEC!

I may get my wish after all -- to buy back all the shares I had using only the profits I made from it last fall!



John

[IIC]

Its a little late for the warning! It could be like the perfect storm, the technicals look bad, Christmas cheer is over and now we have the SEC!

I may get my wish after all -- to buy back all the shares I had using only the profits I made from it last fall!



John

Sorry...If I could, I'd watch news headlines all day...or maybe 1 min charts??? But, I posted it within a coupla mins after I saw it since I knew that there are a number of people here who are interested in SIRI...IIC

[spikefader]

Its a little late for the warning!
JohnLOL never too late for a warning! Not for anyone long here at close price at 5.87 and it's about to fill the gap under 3.00! :D

[CabrioM3]

Sorry...If I could, I'd watch news headlines all day...or maybe 1 min charts??? But, I posted it within a coupla mins after I saw it since I knew that there are a number of people here who are interested in SIRI...IIC


IIC,

I did not mean you were late, I meant that by the time the stock opens this week the longs will already be down because of all the premarket activity. If I were long I'ld have insomnia.

I appreciate your posts and I learn from reading your threads. In fact one of the reasons I sat out Siri was because of the information you guys posted here. I am Sorry if I came across in the wrong light.

John

[New-born baby]

LOL never too late for a warning! Not for anyone long here at close price at 5.87 and it's about to fill the gap under 3.00! :D

Spike,

Looks like my call for 5.38 is too high. Under $3? That short might make more money than I thought.

Hey, I wonder if you could do us a favor? That chart you posted on SIRI needs a little background music. Do you think you could install some? I would suggest a song like: "The party's overrrrr, and the hard part begins."
Or how about, "I'll be short until the last tear drop falls."

[spikefader]

lol Nice idea, but I don't think I can attach music, and I don't know if the accepted formats will play with music.

Good call on the short side SIRI!

[New-born baby]

SIRI shorters:

She's hit my target of $5.38, but showing so much weakness that it appears Spike's chart trumps my first target. Stand back! Let her fall!

[spikefader]

SIRI shorters:

She's hit my target of $5.38, but showing so much weakness that it appears Spike's chart trumps my first target. Stand back! Let her fall!
Yup :D Nice to be on the right side of it. The channel short day at 6.18 was the genius.

[CabrioM3]

It broke the January 20 low of 5.28, We'll see it if it closes below that.


John

[Websman]

Close at $5.15...It feels great to know that I made lots of money on SIRI and then got out before it tanked....BWAAAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Now if it'll drop to $4, I can rebuy it with the profits I made on it! HAHAHA!!!

I'll be playing with the houses money!!! I love it!!!

DROP SIRI....DROP LIKE THE DOG YOU ARE!!!!

[New-born baby]

Close at $5.15...It feels great to know that I made lots of money on SIRI and then got out before it tanked....BWAAAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Now if it'll drop to $4, I can rebuy it with the profits I made on it! HAHAHA!!!

I'll be playing with the houses money!!! I love it!!!

DROP SIRI....DROP LIKE THE DOG YOU ARE!!!!

Hey Webs,

Why wait? Why don't you just sell it first, then buy it below $4? Shorts are fun.

[jiesen]

Shorts are all fun and games until someone gets their margin poked out on a sharp gap up.

[Websman]

I like to wear shorts since I have awesome looking legs, but I don't short stocks because I lack the experience and it might get ugly.

[CabrioM3]

Close at $5.15...It feels great to know that I made lots of money on SIRI and then got out before it tanked....BWAAAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Now if it'll drop to $4, I can rebuy it with the profits I made on it! HAHAHA!!!

I'll be playing with the houses money!!! I love it!!!

DROP SIRI....DROP LIKE THE DOG YOU ARE!!!!


Hey websmen I'm doing the same thing! That is re-enter with only house money! Its great to be us!

SIRIUS SUCKS! Till I buy it back of course, Then it'll be the best damn thing since sliced bread <wink wink>


John

[dmk112]

Close at $5.15...It feels great to know that I made lots of money on SIRI and then got out before it tanked....BWAAAHAHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!

Now if it'll drop to $4, I can rebuy it with the profits I made on it! HAHAHA!!!

I'll be playing with the houses money!!! I love it!!!

DROP SIRI....DROP LIKE THE DOG YOU ARE!!!!

its goin to 2 imo

[Websman]

its goin to 2 imo

I certainly hope it drops to $2, but I doubt it'll go that far down. The trend should be down for the next couple of months, so we will see where it goes.

[CabrioM3]

Just for laughs, I'll say 2.8

Heres why I think that, it spent sometime in the 8.48 area, I am throwing out the $9's because it was a fleeting Island.
So I think it will be a bad correction of around 67%, which off 8.48 is 2.8.
My original purchase was at 3.11 so I'ld be jumping off the walls!



John

[New-born baby]

Just for laughs, I'll say 2.8

Heres why I think that, it spent sometime in the 8.48 area, I am throwing out the $9's because it was a fleeting Island.
So I think it will be a bad correction of around 67%, which off 8.48 is 2.8.
My original purchase was at 3.11 so I'ld be jumping off the walls!



John

SIRI is hot on the news that XMSR raised their rates to equal SIRI: $12.95 per month from $9.95 per month. XMSR was up on the news, and SIRI was up both yesterday and very hot this morning. WHHHEEEEEE DDDDOOOOOGGGGIIIIEEEESSSSSSS! (as Jed Clampett would say).

[spikefader]

Channel break today. Siri wants to impress me, but it'll have to give me a good channel long day first :D

[skiracer]

Have to agree with you that there is nothing in the chart to make you want to buy this stock. The first thing I do in the mornings is open Briefing.com's site and the Live In Play column looking for any news. UBS upgraded both xmsr and siri before 7am this morning and Siri started up right off the bat. It looked like it was going to go off an I bought a 1000 shares at 5.81 in the premarket. It kept going an I took another 1000 at 5.98 after the open and that must have been enough to stop it because it never got higher than 5.99. I think the UBS upgrade might give it some fuel and their target is 6.75. Alot of momentum players in it, playing it and taking profits when they can which makes it harder for it to sustain it's gains. I think if it makes it's forecasted 2.5 million subscribers this year this will be the last time you'll see it at these prices. Suprised Webs didn't take a flyer on this one this morning instead of DHB.

[skiracer]

Forgot to mention that it traded over 1 million shares after the bell today at 5.93/5.94.

[skiracer]

Another 646,000 at 5.92 at 6.39 pm. That makes it close to 2 million after the close.

[spikefader]

re this chart (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14552&postcount=384), there was a nice channel long yesterday. Today's double bottom is a great entry I feel. Took a nibble here :D

[New-born baby]

Webs, Spike, et al

Mel K. (whatever his name) announced today that Sean Hannity will be on SIRI. Check out the Drudge report and see the news. SIRI on the move!

[Websman]

I don't know Spike. SIRI closed at the low of the day. I'll have to see what it does after hours. If it holds AH, I may try a little SIRI tomorrow.

[skiracer]

I bought 2000 shares at an average cost of 5.90 on Tuesday and bailed this afternoon at 5.82 for a .08 loss on the 2000 shares. It looks to me like it wants to fill the gap from tuesday to around 5.60 area. I would enter again at that area if it finds some support there but it just didn't have enough juice to break an hold above that 6 resistance line this time around. I think it's going to have to show more in the line of earnings and subscriber strength to break above that an hold it. It seems that signing on big names isn't going to cut it right now an that the big money is content to watch for the time being and want to see the beef and the money before committing. I thought that the gap up on Tuesday was going to propel it up but no cigar right now. Sooner or later it will go off but todays drop, even on the much lighter volume, brought out the realist in me. I'll be keeping a close eye on it for a quick entry if it does but right now I think playing the waiting game might get you a better and lower entry price. It's down even a little more in the AH on close to a million shares or so.

[Websman]

I still think SIRI will drop close to $4 again, before it goes back up.

[New-born baby]

Ski, Webs,

What moves the stock price of SIRI is not earnings, don't you agree? They don't have any. Kinda like one of those dot.com/dot.bomb stocks of 2000.

What moved SIRI's spike the last couple of days was the news that XMSR was going to raise its rates to match SIRI's monthly subscription of $12.95. Nothing fundamentally changed within SIRI.

Conclusion: the Spike is short-lived, and the shorters are now ready to pounce.

[Websman]

At this time, SIRI runs on news and the prospect of future business.
I've looked at it, but have decided to let Spike go it alone this time. I'll buy SIRI again, when the time is right for me.

Good luck Spike!

[spikefader]

re siri long here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14763&postcount=388
out this morning for a push. Channel long day not responding. I'll watch a reaction to a gap fill at 5.60 and might reenter.

[New-born baby]

Here's my view of my favorite short stock:

http://img81.exs.cx/img81/6448/chaart16yj.th.gif (http://img81.exs.cx/my.php?loc=img81&image=chaart16yj.gif)

Click on image to enlarge. Then click on image again to enlarge.

[spikefader]

SIRI: She's goin' down...........
BTW: Nice Chartin NewBorn!!!!!!!!!! :D

[New-born baby]

SIRI: She's goin' down...........
BTW: Nice Chartin NewBorn!!!!!!!!!! :D

Spike,

All the chartin' I ever learned came from you, Dad.

[Websman]

Hahaha!!! It looks like SIRI may drop to $4.20 or so! Yes!!! This means I should be able to pick up some cheap shares soon...

[Websman]

SIRI seems to have formed a base and should pop one way or the other soon. I'm thinking bull.

Who's ready to go long on SIRI? Spike are you ready to change your mind yet?

[spikefader]

SIRI seems to have formed a base and should pop one way or the other soon. I'm thinking bull.

Who's ready to go long on SIRI? Spike are you ready to change your mind yet?No, it's not ready yet.

[spikefader]

SIRI channel turn down yesterday. It's worth chasing in anticipation of the decending triangle breakdown.

[scifos]

Spike, do I have the decending triangle drawn right?
http://img218.exs.cx/img218/2748/siri9db.jpg

[spikefader]

Spike, do I have the decending triangle drawn right?
I'd actually call that a triangle.

[Jaws57]

I am no expert on MACD charts, but from what I have read and picked up from this board, the price has been dropping but the MACD has been rising.
This is a good thing right? Add the triangle thing maybe we are ready to roll?

[New-born baby]

WEBS!

Martha Stewart and Howard Stern have a new relationship going! That's right! Martha signed on with SIRI to host a MS Living radio program for the next four years. Share price should rocket tomorrow.

[Websman]

WEBS!

Martha Stewart and Howard Stern have a new relationship going! That's right! Martha signed on with SIRI to host a MS Living radio program for the next four years. Share price should rocket tomorrow.

I don't think Martha will have much impact on the share price.

I do, however, feel much better knowing that, because of my Sirius receiver, I will now be able to experience the vast wealth of knowledge and entertainment that only Martha Stewart can offer. This will afford me the opportunity to escape an otherwise dark and dreary level of conscienceness, commonly known as reality. My only fear is that I will become socially superior to others through my new found sense of style and etiquette.

[dmk112]

I think SIRI is going to $2 if we go into a bear market

[B.J]

This will afford me the opportunity to escape an otherwise dark and dreary level of conscienceness, commonly known as reality. My only fear is that I will become socially superior to others through my new found sense of style and etiquette.

Naaah... not me. That snobby dinner party shit is strictly my wife's department :D

[billyjoe]

Websman,
Excuse me while I search for my hip boots.

billyjoe

[Websman]

Naaah... not me. That snobby dinner party shit is strictly my wife's department :D

Don't beat around the bush B.J. Just come out and say what you really mean. lol

[New-born baby]

I don't think Martha will have much impact on the share price.
My only fear is that I will become socially superior to others through my new found sense of style and etiquette.

I don't think you have anything to fear, Webs. It is going to take decades to give you any sense of etiquette. :)

[B.J]

Don't beat around the bush B.J. Just come out and say what you really mean. lol

Maybe a bit harsh, and I obviously have plenty of my own faults...

It's just that, when I volunteer to help her out, and set the table, the last thing I want to see is her following me with a Martha Stewart rulebook and a whistle :D

I'm just saying...

[Websman]

Maybe a bit harsh, and I obviously have plenty of my own faults...

It's just that, when I volunteer to help her out, and set the table, the last thing I want to see is her following me with a Martha Stewart rulebook and a whistle :D

I'm just saying...

I deal with the same things...and to make matters worse, I live close to places called "Seaside", "Watercolor" and "Rosemary Beach". There are a lot of Martha freaks that live there. Everything has to be perfect.

Whatever happened to putting down a few brews and chunking the can out in the yard???

[Websman]

Yes! SIRI closes below $5.

I may get my low entry price after all. Maybe $3...Who knows? It could happen.

[spikefader]

Just posted a chart in your thread Webs. It's just a matter of time until SIRI wanders within ambush range :D

[Websman]

Jim Cramer is saying to sell SIRI. That usually means it's getting ready to go up.

[lak]

Jim Cramer is saying to sell SIRI. That usually means it's getting ready to go up.

HAHAHAHAHAHA
that is classic!

I was just thinking about hopping back in on Siri..... I haven't purchased any since my last sell in January or so.........

[Websman]

HAHAHAHAHAHA
that is classic!

I was just thinking about hopping back in on Siri..... I haven't purchased any since my last sell in January or so.........

Yea...Last week Jim was saying to buy SIRI. I'm waiting for it to drop back now.

I've owned it twice in the past month and did pretty good both times.

[lak]

Yea...Last week Jim was saying to buy SIRI. I'm waiting for it to drop back now.

I've owned it twice in the past month and did pretty good both times.

So you are playing it in short spurts? I was thinking of doing the same thing, but need it to drop to at least 5.25 before I enter at all. There is a lot of Bears on it with Sterns stuff now...... could see the drop next week?

[dlb53151]

I am in SIRI deep at 6.98. I held on through the recent pullback and it is starting to rebound into the upper 5's nicely. Hold on tight, as this sucker will be at 8 before you know it!!!

[spikefader]

hmmmmmmmm

http://img264.echo.cx/img264/7459/poll6cx.jpg

[Websman]

hmmmmmmmm

http://img264.echo.cx/img264/7459/poll6cx.jpg

Hopefully down so I can get some cheap shares.

[lak]

I missed out on the new round of purchases I think. Not picking any up now I will wait for a pull back........... Good luck to the holders!

[spikefader]

Hopefully down so I can get some cheap shares.
http://img264.echo.cx/img264/7459/poll6cx.jpgWell if it falls, will you buy this one? And if so, where? Draw on there where and why. In fact, everyone do it! I'd like to see what ya'll think of this chart.

[New-born baby]

Well if it falls, will you buy this one? And if so, where? Draw on there where and why. In fact, everyone do it! I'd like to see what ya'll think of this chart.

Here's my bile:

http://img73.echo.cx/img73/4568/owen7ba.th.gif (http://img73.echo.cx/my.php?image=owen7ba.gif)

[spikefader]

:) did everyone realize this is an inverted SIRI chart?
Yep, good thoughts Newborn, but the neckline is in the wrong place. It has to be drawn so that the 2 shoulders are clearly shown, each one finding support and bouncing off the neckline. And if this happens, seeing it's inverted, then price will rise for bulls. :D

[Websman]

:) did everyone realize this is an inverted SIRI chart?
Yep, good thoughts Newborn, but the neckline is in the wrong place. It has to be drawn so that the 2 shoulders are clearly shown, each one finding support and bouncing off the neckline. And if this happens, seeing it's inverted, then price will rise for bulls. :D

Hmmm...trying to trick us huh?

[spikefader]

Hmmm...trying to trick us huh?lol not really. My intention was to draw an honest opinion from anyone interested in doing it, and then see how they 'felt' about their opinion when they realized it was an inverted SIRI chart.

[skiracer]

Spikefader,
A shark in a minnow pond. I was looking at the chart an it didn't dawn on me what you were talking about until just a moment ago. A double negative. An inverted inverted head and shoulders would certainly be bullish. That's a proverbial "heads up" on your part Spike. WTG!!

[Runner]

Notice the retest on SIRI it flagged a few entry points!!
http://img124.echo.cx/img124/1738/siri19ko.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Websman]

SIRI is really getting on my last nerve. I think I'll go bash it on the Yahoo boards. :)

[Runner]

haaa, Webs why is it getting on your nerves?

[Websman]

haaa, Webs why is it getting on your nerves?

Because I'm waiting for a dip to buy back in.

[Websman]

If you own GOOG it might be time to sell. Cramer just listed it as his #1 stock pick.

[jiesen]

If you own GOOG it might be time to sell. Cramer just listed it as his #1 stock pick.

yeah, his recent raving about GOOG was my #1 reason for picking it short this week... but who knew? like a stopped clock, even Cramer can be right sometimes.

[Websman]

I still like to watch Cramer. His show is always good for a few laughs!

[B.J]

Because I'm waiting for a dip to buy back in.

The way it looks, it won't go any lower than what is indicated by Runner's slope.

[Websman]

The way it looks, it won't go any lower than what is indicated by Runner's slope.

Which should be about $5.80. Good point. I may pick some up around that range.

[Runner]

http://img132.echo.cx/img132/3640/siri20uz.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Yet another good point by Runner. Nothing would please me more than for SIRI to drop back below $5.

[Runner]

Last post on Siri for awhile, I need to take a chill from these charts. This gives a better perspective from a closer time range..

http://img132.echo.cx/img132/191/siri37ly.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Last post on Siri for awhile, I need to take a chill from these charts. This gives a better perspective from a closer time range..

http://img132.echo.cx/img132/191/siri37ly.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

Descending triangle: very bearish! Coming back to $5.70 or lower. Gap fill seems very likely.

[Runner]

http://img132.echo.cx/img132/3640/siri20uz.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

Window closed and bounce off major line.

[Websman]

$5 would be a great price to get back in at.

[New-born baby]

$5 would be a great price to get back in at.

Webs,
Doesn't look like sub-$5 anytime soon. Today we had a gap fill and a channel long signal! The party continues!

Here's the chart:http://img183.echo.cx/img183/570/siri4tz.th.gif (http://img183.echo.cx/my.php?image=siri4tz.gif)

[Runner]

Touch and go off retest line!
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=20014&postcount=440

[lak]

This is one of those stocks that I wish I was in on more days than not........ but I don't like any of the entry points that I see that much.

[dmk112]

Well SIRI has been creeping up and up since 4.36 low in May, Webs you in this??

[Websman]

Well SIRI has been creeping up and up since 4.36 low in May, Webs you in this??

Like a fool, I day traded it for some quick gains. I would have made much more if I would have bought and held. :(

[spikefader]

hmmmmmmmm

http://img264.echo.cx/img264/7459/poll6cx.jpg
Remember the above inverted SIRI chart. That glaring SHS and gap were the whisper. And thus, here you have it:
http://img290.imageshack.us/img290/2031/sirijune67tt.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Anyone looking for a good technical based entry, the time is ripe for SIRI.


http://img244.imageshack.us/img244/8296/sirijuly255hd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Spike,
I've been watching this one for the last couple of weeks and bought 2000 shares this afternoon in the after hours at 6.98. Already up .02 as it closed today at 7. It held it's own today in a close range. What is your target from an entry at around 7 on a short term swing trade? I'm realistically looking for 7.75/8 range. I would be happy with a realization of that price. Did you take a position?

[spikefader]

Spike,
I've been watching this one for the last couple of weeks and bought 2000 shares this afternoon in the after hours at 6.98. Already up .02 as it closed today at 7. It held it's own today in a close range. What is your target from an entry at around 7 on a short term swing trade? I'm realistically looking for 7.75/8 range. I would be happy with a realization of that price. Did you take a position?Hey ski. Man, I'm really bullish on SIRI, despite it being in a crappy sector and group. I'm talking long term too. I didn't buy it today; got busy with other things, but thought the chart would be helpful to others watching it.

Technically, the chart has so much potential. This is the type of chart that can really reward. It's been beaten up so bad, and now on the weekly chart there is a really good buy signal and fantastic upper channel target. Check it out below. 5 year monthly chart target of 28.00 and falling; 4 year weekly chart target of 11.40 and rising; 3 year weekly of 9.20 and rising fast. 6 month weekly target of 7.50 and rising moderately. I've also attached my usual 3 year weekly stockcharts channel target of around 10.50, and the falling channel from the recent high, currently 8.30 and falling, but good potential for that channel to turn up before price hits it, which green lights a hold for rising upper channel. This is the sort of chart that if you are rewarded with a perfect entry, fast run up then you'd be well positioned to hold it long term for that 28.00 target. If that's too far for you, then certainly until that 13.00 price resistance.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5787/sirilongtermtarget7tu.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/6282/siritarget4dk.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Webs, isn't it amazing what time can do. A stock can be like great wine; it takes time to mature. Are you feeling as bullish about SIRI as you did when it jumped up for you? The charts look so good for it right now. I think it's definately worth buying tomorrow morning at 7.00ish, and worth chasing the channel turn up from the 7.49 high should it occur. I'm expecting the big money to flow into SIRI now, and it should pop nicely.

[B.J]

Moreover, Spike, isn't that an ascending triangle between the horizontal 7 resistance, and the 6.5 low? Coming to a point now?

[spikefader]

Moreover, Spike, isn't that an ascending triangle between the horizontal 7 resistance, and the 6.5 low? Coming to a point now?Yes! You're a genius :D
And another bullish view is with EW!
Check this out. Green c minor count (plus Blue C major count) is getting bought now! I'm even more bullish than I was 10 minuts ago! lol
Train at station............All Aboard!! hehe

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5619/siricountjuly256li.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Moreover, Spike, isn't that an ascending triangle between the horizontal 7 resistance, and the 6.5 low? Coming to a point now?
Here's what B.J refers to (good spotting :D))

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5455/siri20daychartjuly258xj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Ya know folks, if ever there was a chart screaming long, and screaming long-term long, it's SIRI right now. This is the type of setup I encourage looking for; multiple time frames pointing north. It's so ripe it's about to fall off the tree. You just have to reach out and catch it as it falls. Oh, and by the way, it's poking its head up through the weekly 200 EMA with rising green money flow :D

As with all things, plan for failure and keep any downside within sensible r/r limits and all is well. There are never 100% guarantees, but SIRI looks about as good as it's going to for a long term entry.

[Peter Hansen]

Here's what B.J refers to (good spotting :D))

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5455/siri20daychartjuly258xj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Ya know folks, if ever there was a chart screaming long, and screaming long-term long, it's SIRI right now. This is the type of setup I encourage looking for; multiple time frames pointing north. It's so ripe it's about to fall off the tree. You just have to reach out and catch it as it falls. Oh, and by the way, it's poking its head up through the weekly 200 EMA with rising green money flow :D

As with all things, plan for failure and keep any downside within sensible r/r limits and all is well. There are never 100% guarantees, but SIRI looks about as good as it's going to for a long term entry.


My computer program "Stock Signal Pro" said to go LONG SIRI at $6.90 and immediately set STOP LOSS at $6.60! Had a buy for $6.90 0n 7/25/05 but it never activated at the $6.90 price!

[skiracer]

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/815/sire1nz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Big tug of war going on yesterday and today. Bolinger bands getting real tight. Two doji's in a row yesterday and today. It looks like the stocks wants to go up and is just exhausting the remainder of the sellers at this level. They tried to force it down today but the bulls showed their strength and kept it in a tight range at 6.96 to 7.01.
I'm prejudiced right now holding a long position but feel that the strength after today is definitely in the bulls camp.

[Peter Hansen]

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/815/sire1nz.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Big tug of war going on yesterday and today. Bolinger bands getting real tight. Two doji's in a row yesterday and today. It looks like the stocks wants to go up and is just exhausting the remainder of the sellers at this level. They tried to force it down today but the bulls showed their strength and kept it in a tight range at 6.96 to 7.01.
I'm prejudiced right now holding a long position but feel that the strength after today is definitely in the bulls camp.

Ski have made and lost money on with this one, but overall ahead.....The only trouble with this stock is that it has such a large float.....it takes a Tsunami to have any affect on it. I wll watch closely tomorrow .and will probably take a small position in it.......but of course will then place a tight stop on this one.!

[spikefader]

.....it takes a Tsunami to have any affect on it...
A Tsunami is forecast to hit SIRI any day now!!!
Ascending triangle break outs can be powerful dude.
I'm expecting at least 8.20 within 3 weeks. But hey, what do I know... :D

[lak]

A Tsunami is forecast to hit SIRI any day now!!!
Ascending triangle break outs can be powerful dude.
I'm expecting at least 8.20 within 3 weeks. But hey, what do I know... :D

I will watch the weather channel all night tonight........ if I see one coming, I will be heading straight into it! :)

[skiracer]

A Tsunami is forecast to hit SIRI any day now!!!
Ascending triangle break outs can be powerful dude.
I'm expecting at least 8.20 within 3 weeks. But hey, what do I know... :D

Well you know what a good chart and setup looks like. Bring on the big wave.

[Peter Hansen]

Based on Spike's and your input and a gut feeling I bought 1000 shares of SIRI at $6.95 on 6/27/05......I am making 20 dollars already whoopie ..but hopefully the BIG DOG (SIRI) will take me to pie in the sky. Remember if you don't run with the lead dog.......the view is always the same. Not to throw caution to the wind I set my stop at $6.60.

[spikefader]

OK, guys, good news. Channel turn up today. Getting ready for blast off. If 7.00 cracks with volume, I think it's up up and away.

BUT, as with all ascending triangles there comes an apex where if price hasn't broken out bullishly but rather price begins to drop, then it can fall fast and hard. Recall ZICA's ascending triangle that failed and fell relentlessly from 6.70 or something down to 2.17 in the space of 4 months. This is where discipline counts; if the bull fails to show up, then I'll be the first to leave the party early before the ugliness shows up. That SHS targets 5.80 if the neckline is broken, so careful out there.

The logical stop now is either under the ascending line/neckline, so I'll be using a 6.79 stop. The alternative and tighter stop is tucked in below the hourly PSAR trend indicator, around say 6.90.

OK, that's the plan. I'll pick some up in the morning at $6.97 and I'll be risking 2.5% for a target of 86% ($13.00 resistance). That's a R/R of 31.6!!!! lol OK, so I'm aiming high.....but ya never know :D


http://img284.imageshack.us/img284/354/sirijuly283sa.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

Based on Spike's and your input and a gut feeling I bought 1000 shares of SIRI at $6.95 on 6/27/05......I am making 20 dollars already whoopie ..but hopefully the BIG DOG (SIRI) will take me to pie in the sky. Remember if you don't run with the lead dog.......the view is always the same. Not to throw caution to the wind I set my stop at $6.60.

Peter,
Good play. On the risk side you can only lose the difference between the entry price and your stop price, but the reward side looks very enticing from this point. Like Spike stated, if we can break 7 with some volume we might see a very nice breakout bounce. The last three days have been a fight between the bulls and bears but it has held it's range on less than average volume.
Only time will tell which way the wind is going to blow here but we seem to have a big edge on our side with this particular setup. Can't ask for more than that going for yourself.
I set a stop at 6.75 so I can only lose .23 from this my entry. Good luck.

[Peter Hansen]

Ski and Spike thank you for your detailed analysis. I don't think SIRI will be on Mr Market's Top 5 list, but if you are careful, money can be made here. According to Yahoo history prices........ Siri traded for 38 cents back in March 03 and hit $60.66 in February of 2000......definitely not one for the faint of heart. Pregnant nuns, women and children are advised not to have SIRI in their portfolios....LOL!

[spikefader]

The big guy upstairs must be on my side today; got busy with some other things and didn't buy SIRI and I see the drop today and it's already below my stop point so I'll reassess the chart and post it.

[spikefader]

OK, here's the new plan: It still sets up bullish. Ascending triangle still there, and the neckline of the SHS hasn't broken yet.

Just took a long SIRI 6.84, in anticipation of a small R shoulder and neckline break to follow. Didn't want to wait for 6.81 since it's only 3 pennies, and the L shoulder price is offering support here.
My stop 6.69.

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/8937/sirijuly295qd.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[B.J]

Well, I've been stopped out already. CRAP! :(

[spikefader]

Well, I've been stopped out already. CRAP! :(

Bad luck B.J. :(

Here's what I'm seeing intraday now. This is a good Silver medal entry at 6.91 I think; but the stop is the tricky thing now. I got a gold entry so I'm using a stop under low of day now.

http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/5951/sirijuly28intra3ts.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[B.J]

Thanks for the chart Spike. I'm giving it SIRIUS thought (boooo bad joke)

[spikefader]

Thanks for the chart Spike. I'm giving it SIRIUS thought (boooo bad joke)LOL good one harhar.
You're welcome. Silver entry only 1% worse than the Gold today. Both are valid on a technical basis. Both are disciplined entries. But as always, even Gold and Silver entries are not guarantees of success; just guarantees that you're following discipline if you take them when they show up :D

Good luck!

[B.J]

Back in but only half as much as before. I'll commit more when I'm sure the latest triangle support holds.

Of course, if the neck (and triangle) fails, all bets are off.

[Thomrich]

greetings,

In with ya at 6.90,missed HANS at 95 today,someone else got filled

Thanks for your dedication.

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings again Spike,

At your convenience could you peek at ERF?Im in at 38.40,and I see a channel target of 42ish?Am I anywhere close?

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Greetings again Spike,

At your convenience could you peek at ERF?Im in at 38.40,and I see a channel target of 42ish?Am I anywhere close?

cordially TomNice entry. I see 44.20ish as upper channel on a 1-year chart. That would fit nicely with a 5th wave completion off the daily or better yet, the alternate count is it's about to start the 1st of another series after an c completion 38.01 which happens to be the beautiful channel long day last week. I prefer that second count actually. The 38.01 looks like a 2 completion and you're about to get the 3. And on the weekly, it looks like it's headed for 60.00 in it's bigger 5th. You've got the bullflag formation from 32.00, so you're good to rock and roll :D Nice pick!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Thanks for the analysis,its great having you here more often.

Ive noticed HANS seems to give buying opps. in the AM,Ill wait to see if I can snag one tommorow.

cordially Tom

[spikefader]

Revised intraday count and thoughts:
http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/8125/sirijuly28intra23sg.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Thomrich]

Greetings again,

LEXR looks to have touched lower channel today,with earnings being released after hours.Sandisk reported upside and was rewarded,will LEXR do the same?Seems to have bounced off 5.15.

Any thoughts ?

cordially Tom

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Concerning LEXR,down big after hours,could be a repeat of last earnings,which provided a run from 4.40 to 6.00.

After doing some chart work ,both a P+F and a measured move from the wedge break,target 8.50 on SIRI,sound plausible?

BTW your call on ERF sounds great,and checking on a P+F it targets 57.Unfortunately on ZICA it targets 0,I was stopped out at 2.75,and now feel somewhat lucky,your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?

cordially Tom

[Websman]

I admit that I love SIRI, especially since I doubled my investment from it last year, but I don't have a lot of faith in a big run up this year. I honestly think that most of the big news is already priced in.

Also you have to consider the large number of outstanding shares SIRI has. It'll take a lot of action to make it move big. I can see a move to $8.50, but that's about it.

Just my opinion...

[spikefader]

Greetings again,

LEXR looks to have touched lower channel today,with earnings being released after hours.Sandisk reported upside and was rewarded,will LEXR do the same?Seems to have bounced off 5.15.

Any thoughts ?

cordially TomLEXR yep channel long today, perhaps 4.92 double bottom? While 4.73 holds, it's OK. But stop under that since the bigger channel, while bullish is so wide, and the channel from the recent top is downward. Bulls gotta step up now! :D Good luck.

[spikefader]

Greetings,

Concerning LEXR,down big after hours,could be a repeat of last earnings,which provided a run from 4.40 to 6.00.

After doing some chart work ,both a P+F and a measured move from the wedge break,target 8.50 on SIRI,sound plausible?

BTW your call on ERF sounds great,and checking on a P+F it targets 57.Unfortunately on ZICA it targets 0,I was stopped out at 2.75,and now feel somewhat lucky,your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?

cordially TomYes, today provides a bargain entry on this gap down. It's a valid long here with great R/R!

ZICA is a frustrating stock. I'm still bullish on it, but gee I wish it would hurry up :D To your stop out, good discipline dude. Go back to your entry and there's your answer as to what went wrong. Once you miss a move, know when you've missed it and be patient for the next. Best to ya.

[spikefader]

..your thoughts on P+F charts,along with ZICA and LEXR?
cordially Tomoh, and P&F, I don't trade off them, but occasionally look at them as a piece in the larger puzzle.

[Peter Hansen]

SIRI scheduled to release results Tuesday......Analysts expect revenue to rise 278% to $50.1 million while its pro forma loss rises to 15 cents per share from 11 cents. Hopefully Siri wii beat Analyst's figures, or we could be in for a drop .......set your stops!

[Thomrich]

Greetings,

Stop set for 6.73,it bounced off of 6.81 all day,with next week being the start of a new month,I look for a rally on monday.

Does anyone know when Howard Stern is moving to SIRI?


cordially Tom

[skiracer]

Here's what B.J refers to (good spotting :D))

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/5455/siri20daychartjuly258xj.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

Ya know folks, if ever there was a chart screaming long, and screaming long-term long, it's SIRI right now. This is the type of setup I encourage looking for; multiple time frames pointing north. It's so ripe it's about to fall off the tree. You just have to reach out and catch it as it falls. Oh, and by the way, it's poking its head up through the weekly 200 EMA with rising green money flow :D

As with all things, plan for failure and keep any downside within sensible r/r limits and all is well. There are never 100% guarantees, but SIRI looks about as good as it's going to for a long term entry.

Regarding the ascending triangle definition according to Bulkowski's book there are a few things in the chart of SIRI that I overlooked and probably do alot because when I'm looking at a chart and see a pattern it's a toss up whether or not I go to the book and read up on exactly what constitutes a true chart pattern. In this case SIRI. When I first looked at the chart an saw the ascending triangle all that I saw was the horizontal top line and the up-sloping bottom line. I never paid any attention in this case to the definition of what it should contain and by doing that missed a couple of points that could make a difference. Here are a few observations after the fact which I've noted on the chart.

http://img349.imageshack.us/img349/9522/siri15vh.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I'm still holding the position with a stop at 6.75. I'm going to be watching this one very closely Monday AM to see which way the wind will be blowing.
Thomrich made an interesting statement about Monday being the beginning of a new month and the hedgies an institutional guys like to put their money into play in the beginning of the month so there might be a bounce just on that.
The fact that it has gone lower from last weeks entry, for me 6.98, on lower volume as it moves closer to it's apex, where the converging top and bottom lines intersect, on lower volume is normal and should not be misconstrued as a failure yet but what stocks do when in this type of chart pattern. So still holding and watching. Except for the price crossings between the top and bottom lines at least twice the pattern looks to be real good. Only time will tell. Honor your stops. You can always re-enter later. Just like MM stated in an earlier post today or yesterday, the gain is the main thing regardless whether it is from 10 to 15 or 20 to 25 etc.... Just as long as you realize the gain.

[Runner]

The way I see SIRI is 6.77 offered a buy signal with stop just below 6.50.

If you bot at 7.00 you bot right into resistance. But heck who on earth knows this stocks fate is? The more I try to figure this out the more this market proves how foolish I am.

As for SIRI my view is still bullish down to 6.50, if the market structure low is violated then I would not wish to hold these shares...

[skiracer]

The way I see SIRI is 6.77 offered a buy signal with stop just below 6.50.

If you bot at 7.00 you bot right into resistance. But heck who on earth knows this stocks fate is? The more I try to figure this out the more this market proves how foolish I am.

As for SIRI my view is still bullish down to 6.50, if the market structure low is violated then I would not wish to hold these shares...

Runner,
Check your mail please.

[Runner]

Runner,
Check your mail please.

Ski, I got your e-mail last night. Did you send another one?

[spikefader]

Yes Ski, some interesting stuff there. That chart (and the ascending triangle) has obviously failed with Friday’s price action. I intended to chase the channel turn up early but thankfully got called elsewhere so I didn’t take it until 6.84 after I reassessed the chart and posted here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=23280&postcount=470

At that time it was clearly bullish, and the intraday pattern that developed later was bullish too: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/showpost.php?p=23290&postcount=480

I'm still bullish while that neckline holds. Price is at the neckline, so it's do or die. Who knows; the market might gap up, SIRI takes off gaps up and we're all happy. I know one thing is certain. I'll be watching SIRI as soon as premarket trade opens in the event it sells under the neckline.

On your thoughts on the ascending triangle, here’s what I think:
You're trying to nail down exactly what makes for a pure ascending triangle. That's OK. Go for it. Make it as complicated or as simply as you want. Making reference to books and other chartist's opinion is cool.....never too old to learn a new good rule, ya know?! I'm certainly not 'the authority' on ascending triangles. My views might be childishly simplistic and laughable to Mr. Bulkowski and others. I'm sure my counts give purist EWers quite the chuckle :D

But bottom line is that I prefer to keep things simple; very simple. Obviously, there are many times that my simple interpretations are proven incorrect. Some may even suggest it's because I'm too childish in my charting; I'm not studying all 'the rules'. But on the other hand, many times I correctly interpret and anticipate a move and I make some nice money. Whether it's luck or good charting God knows. I like to think that I have some interpretive charting talent, but it's actually not that important in the grand scheme of things I think. I think the edge is having the discipline to manage risk and reward really well, and to use sensible money management.

That is what will help more than any study of someone else's interpretation of ascending triangles and what makes them really perfectly 'valid'. Frankly, their opinion isn't going to make the trade successful. Your own discipline will do that; and nothing else. And that is whether it's a winning trade or a stop out loss. It's what I'm always harping on about, and I'll do it until I keel over and die. If a stop out was part of the plan, and you stopped out, then you’re a legend and you’re on your way to success. In hindsight, I would much rather have really appreciated that point FIRST, then learnt about profit generating setups. It took me a long time to learn that discipline is the most important thing in trading; not finding a good system. For without great discipline, there will be no long-term victory. Look at Mr. Market. If he wasn’t so wonderfully disciplined with his model and his trades, he’d be an utter failure. He certainly wouldn’t have 71 consecutive winners. Whether you’ve got a model like MM and you’re a long-term trader who uses no stops, or you’re a short-term trader who uses stops every day, DISCIPLINE is the key to victory and glory.

The fact is that surprises happen every day. We must plan for it, and have no regrets when we are surprised. Even the perfect pattern or perfect chart can fail; it happens all too often. The market CANNOT be perfectly predicted. There are forces going on in every single issue that is traded that we don't see, hear about, and certainly don't understand. Whether it's a basic fundamental change in an issue, or some unexpected piece of news, there is danger of sudden price movement against any one of our trades. I've had sudden movement against enough of mine; and I don't like it by the way! :D And as a short-term trader it's those moves that have made me really appreciate the concept of discipline. It is through pain that we grow in this business.

Seriously dude, the nature of the market is such that the unexpected will always happen; a perfect chart setup will fail, an imperfect chart setup will succeed. Knowing this, I don't need to search for perfection, but just a better than average setup and great risk reward. Then I can smile in the knowledge that one HAS to lose some battles in order to win the war. Limit the casualties, pick the battles well, manage emotions like a Samurai, and be honest with myself about the risk I took, and whether it was a statistically worthy thing to do.

If I stop out of SIRI on Monday I'm not going to beat myself up over it, and nor should anyone else who traded it. It was a speculative trade, just like all of them, it was planned out, it was a valid long setup (on multiple time frames mind you), it was executed, it was watched, and it came to conclusion. The risk will be within limits, and I know that by making sure that IS within limits, I will live to fight another battle, perhaps even the war :D If I stop out, I deserve a pat on the back, and not a reference to an author I've not heard of who says my trade was never going to win! :D haha ~BG~

Best to ya Ski!

[skiracer]

Spike,
It took you a long time to get to that last sentence when you could have said that right from the beginning. The point is that you missed entirely the idea of what I was trying to convey. The farthest thought from my mind was correcting your analysis or knocking it in any way. I had bought the stock before I read your post an after seeing that you liked the stock and trade also made me feel better about the trade.
There was so much talk about ascending triangles afterwards that I went back to Bulkowski's book to read up on them because at the time I didn't know the true definition of their chart pattern. I was only trying to pass on some info for everyone, nothing negative towards you or anyone else.
One thing I'm sure of is that the closer you get to the true definition and meaning of a chart pattern the better chances the result will come out the way you're hoping an expecting them to.
I'm sorry you missed the point and never once said or implied anything negative about your analysis before or after the fact or whether or not the trade was going to be a winner or not.
But I have to thank you for that last statement because it certainly has provided me with the answer to something that has been floating around inside my head for awhile now. BTW Bulkowski is a pretty well known and respected authority on chart interpretation an percentages of how specific chart patterns will turn out so it not like he has no credentials. Best to ya Spike and good trading.

[spikefader]

Gee Ski, I put a big grin and a smiley, and a haha in there....it was a joke!! I was attempting to be light-hearted. I blame that second glass of red wine for its failed delivery. :D haha

I know you weren't knocking - but rather contributing info. Forgive the failed joke attempt and what surely you perceive as misguided 'ranting' in the face of your helpful supply of tech info on that pattern. I went off on the discipline tangent for whatever reason, and I obviously came off as defensive and self-righteous. Like I said, I'm no expert on ascending triangles. I've always said I can't recommend 'texts' to people. All I have learnt is from experience and net research. Bulkowski may be a respected authority, but I've not read him. There are many patterns I like and use (bullflags, head and shoulders, EW) and every one of them have 'rules' defined by so-called experts who have written a book about it. If I choose to integrate part of their theory into my trading without applying all the rules, and if I can do it effectively, then I'm happy. Say I take a SHS pattern, but it doesn't have what experts like to see in it, such as volume decline in the shoulders and head, if I happen to trade it well, despite the missing ingredient then that's OK. I guess my point in the rant was it doesn't matter what others are doing successfully that is the trick, but it's doing what YOU do successful that is important, whether that is bastardizing someone elses rules or not. I bastardize them and make it work. And the reason is the great R/R and the fact that I don't let the bad ones get away from me.

I really hope I don't come off as sounding like an arrogant defensive ass, because I don't think I am. That last cryptic thing about your floating question leaves me at a loss, but anyway it doesn't matter dude. It's all good, and I just wanted to say that. Thanks for all you add to the boards Ski, and just tell me to shut up with a grin when I'm a raving lunatic. Sometimes I go off on a tangent about stuff that I really believe with all my heart will help people trying to learn trading.

[jiesen]

Gee Ski, I put a big grin and a smiley, and a haha in there....it was a joke!! I was attempting to be light-hearted. I blame that second glass of red wine for its failed delivery. :D haha

I know you weren't knocking - but rather contributing info. Forgive the failed joke attempt and what surely you perceive as misguided 'ranting' in the face of your helpful supply of tech info on that pattern. I went off on the discipline tangent for whatever reason, and I obviously came off as defensive and self-righteous. Like I said, I'm no expert on ascending triangles. I've always said I can't recommend 'texts' to people. All I have learnt is from experience and net research. Bulkowski may be a respected authority, but I've not read him. There are many patterns I like and use (bullflags, head and shoulders, EW) and every one of them have 'rules' defined by so-called experts who have written a book about it. If I choose to integrate part of their theory into my trading without applying all the rules, and if I can do it effectively, then I'm happy. Say I take a SHS pattern, but it doesn't have what experts like to see in it, such as volume decline in the shoulders and head, if I happen to trade it well, despite the missing ingredient then that's OK. I guess my point in the rant was it doesn't matter what others are doing successfully that is the trick, but it's doing what YOU do successful that is important, whether that is bastardizing someone elses rules or not. I bastardize them and make it work. And the reason is the great R/R and the fact that I don't let the bad ones get away from me.

I really hope I don't come off as sounding like an arrogant defensive ass, because I don't think I am. That last cryptic thing about your floating question leaves me at a loss, but anyway it doesn't matter dude. It's all good, and I just wanted to say that. Thanks for all you add to the boards Ski, and just tell me to shut up with a grin when I'm a raving lunatic. Sometimes I go off on a tangent about stuff that I really believe with all my heart will help people trying to learn trading.

Spike, I fully understood and appreciated your point there. And I fully agree with you on it. Believe us, you have earned the right to rant on here as much and as often as you feel like it, even after a glass of wine or two. In fact, you're as much an expert as anyone out there, and if someone went and compiled a collection of your best posts, and sold it as "Spike's Rants" it'd probably be a bestseller! Keep up the good work, man.

[skiracer]

Gee Ski, I put a big grin and a smiley, and a haha in there....it was a joke!! I was attempting to be light-hearted. I blame that second glass of red wine for its failed delivery. :D haha

I know you weren't knocking - but rather contributing info. Forgive the failed joke attempt and what surely you perceive as misguided 'ranting' in the face of your helpful supply of tech info on that pattern. I went off on the discipline tangent for whatever reason, and I obviously came off as defensive and self-righteous. Like I said, I'm no expert on ascending triangles. I've always said I can't recommend 'texts' to people. All I have learnt is from experience and net research. Bulkowski may be a respected authority, but I've not read him. There are many patterns I like and use (bullflags, head and shoulders, EW) and every one of them have 'rules' defined by so-called experts who have written a book about it. If I choose to integrate part of their theory into my trading without applying all the rules, and if I can do it effectively, then I'm happy. Say I take a SHS pattern, but it doesn't have what experts like to see in it, such as volume decline in the shoulders and head, if I happen to trade it well, despite the missing ingredient then that's OK. I guess my point in the rant was it doesn't matter what others are doing successfully that is the trick, but it's doing what YOU do successful that is important, whether that is bastardizing someone elses rules or not. I bastardize them and make it work. And the reason is the great R/R and the fact that I don't let the bad ones get away from me.

I really hope I don't come off as sounding like an arrogant defensive ass, because I don't think I am. That last cryptic thing about your floating question leaves me at a loss, but anyway it doesn't matter dude. It's all good, and I just wanted to say that. Thanks for all you add to the boards Ski, and just tell me to shut up with a grin when I'm a raving lunatic. Sometimes I go off on a tangent about stuff that I really believe with all my heart will help people trying to learn trading.
Spike,
That cryptic thing that I mentioned is strictly about my own personality. A few of my trading buddies are always saying that I come off as to authoratative and strong and sometimes a little to sensitive to disagreement when I'm trying to get a point across. I'm beginning to think they might be right to some extent and that maybe I should keep my mouth shut and tone it down some. No problemo Spike and thanks for backing up a little for my benefit. I always take what you post as informative an useful an appreciative of what you do for this forum. Jiesen's last post is as close to the truth of the matter as you can get. As far as your rant on strategy and discipline I couldn't be more tuned in to your line of thought. We should all have that drilled into our heads everyday whether we need it or not. Thanks Spike.

[Websman]

Spike,
That cryptic thing that I mentioned is strictly about my own personality. A few of my trading buddies are always saying that I come off as to authoratative and strong and sometimes a little to sensitive to disagreement when I'm trying to get a point across. I'm beginning to think they might be right to some extent and that maybe I should keep my mouth shut and tone it down some. No problemo Spike and thanks for backing up a little for my benefit. I always take what you post as informative an useful an appreciative of what you do for this forum. Jiesen's last post is as close to the truth of the matter as you can get. As far as your rant on strategy and discipline I couldn't be more tuned in to your line of thought. We should all have that drilled into our heads everyday whether we need it or not. Thanks Spike.

Where else but here at Mr Market's forum, can traders can debate a point, yet remain professional and courteous. :) If this were the IBD board, this would have escalated into a full fleged war.

Spike and Ski, you guys are top notch! I enjoy learning from both of you.

[B.J]

I blame that second glass of red wine for its failed delivery. :D haha

Lightweight :D

[Websman]

Lightweight :D

Yep, that is lightweight, but red wine has antioxidants, which can help to lower cholesterol and helps fend of heart disease.