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mrmarket
04-12-2004, 07:36 PM
Our resident genius chartist candlesticks his way into your heart...

Websman
04-12-2004, 08:05 PM
Our resident genius chartist candlesticks his way into your heart...

I love this guy Spike!!! He will surely be a significant contributor to my future, enormous wealth and prosperity! I thank him! My children and grandchildren will thank him!
Thanks for giving Spike a chance $$$Mr Market$$$! You are truly Huge and open minded!

P.S. I just got back from a trip to Italy, Switzerland and France a few weeks ago. I think I will buy a castle over there when I retire! Yes my dreams will come true!

I love it!!! HA HA HA!!! :lol:

ForeverInvesting
04-12-2004, 09:14 PM
The technical analysis thread for Spikefader sounds very helpful. I am just starting to learn technical analysis so it will be helpful to have the technical analysis take on Mr. Market's great fundamental analysis of his stock selections since every dollar does count. Any other technical analysis on whatever Spikefader find interesting would be fine with me.

By the way, I bought 1000 shares of OFG today at $30.94, and, as you said Spikefader, I probably should have waited a little longer before buying. I know that the 38.2% 13-week Fibonacci price retracement level is $29.77, the 50% retracement is $28.79, and the 61.8% retracement is $27.81. What is the lowest price level do you see and what is the most probable downside price level do you see price level for OFG?

Thanks in advance, I am sure your answer will be insightful as always. I seen your comment on MAGS (good call), what price level do you do see as a “smart” long entry price level for MAGS? If any of the security stocks can be considered a “smart buy” given there huge price appreciation as of late. :)

Michael Taylor

scifos
04-12-2004, 10:46 PM
I really look forward to reading more on this thread

spikefader
04-12-2004, 11:14 PM
Our resident genius chartist candlesticks his way into your heart...
:lol: Certainly no genius, just a humble chartist looking for great entries for those gems discovered by Mr.Market's meats 'n cheese model, and any other hot stocks others can dig up.

Thanks for starting the thread Mr.Market, and I hope that any thoughts thrown around in here can be helpful to the quest for easy profits. May the gems your model uncovers be traded such that it will be like gently reaching down and picking diamonds from loose soil as opposed to digging dirty great holes :)


...surely be a significant contributor...
May it be so. But whatever this thread contributes, may all readers never forget that there is no holy grail, save for our own self-discipline in planning the trade and trading the plan.


...just starting to learn technical analysis so it will be helpful to have the technical analysis take on Mr. Market's great fundamental analysis of his stock selections since every dollar does count. Any other technical analysis on whatever Spikefader find interesting would be fine with me.

Yep - every dollar does count. And we all read about how great entries is what will lead to enormous profits. Wouldn't it be great to combine some simple technical principles to the outstanding prospects found by Mr.Market and others to achieve the 'great entries' that others in hindsight will regret not seeing.

Let the charting begin.

IIC
04-12-2004, 11:47 PM
Great Spike...Personally I use a lot of sites, DGO, TC2000, StockCharts...also some others geared towards technical trading...any sites you suggest???...THX, IIC

spikefader
04-13-2004, 12:02 AM
By the way, I bought 1000 shares of OFG today at $30.94, and, as you said Spikefader, I probably should have waited a little longer before buying. I know that the 38.2% 13-week Fibonacci price retracement level is $29.77, the 50% retracement is $28.79, and the 61.8% retracement is $27.81. What is the lowest price level do you see and what is the most probable downside price level do you see price level for OFG?

Thanks in advance, I am sure your answer will be insightful as always. I seen your comment on MAGS (good call), what price level do you do see as a “smart” long entry price level for MAGS? If any of the security stocks can be considered a “smart buy” given there huge price appreciation as of late. :)
Michael Taylor
Hi Michael.
The chart:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_long_entry_with_caution.jpg

Comments: The daily channel behavior change from yesterday to eod today suggests caution for longs, in that the channel widened slightly on the move down. It is a relatively low volume stock, so it can be jumpy at times, which could be the reason. Looking intraday, I see a little late buying after a weak day, but if it were me, I'd look to move my stop to break even as soon as possible and look to exit if today's low gets taken out. If that happens, there will be a better time to enter rather than hold on and watch it go back to 30 to test support.

As for lowest price I see, I always remember the Enron story, which is a great reason to never compromise stops. They will save you, so learn to love them. Right now, the most probable based on the chart today is that it will bounce here and test the upper red channel. But bad news for the stock, or bad market news can override that in a second, which is why stops are so important to all traders. Better to lose $200 via a stop than $2000 by compromising one.

Smart entry for MAGS is either the lower channel posted in the other thread or 38.2 or 50 retracement. With these high volatility movers, stops even more important.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 12:17 AM
Great Spike...Personally I use a lot of sites, DGO, TC2000, StockCharts...also some others geared towards technical trading...any sites you suggest???...THX, IIC

I've been spending more and more time watching the eminis these days, and less time looking for stock ideas, but when I'm looking I'll check out a few like:
Zeev http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1125
Mishedlo http://boards.fool.com/messages.asp?mid=20623860
and trenchrat's board http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?bid=113032
Otherwise, I'll just do a simple scan on stockcharts.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 01:22 AM
Just checked IB shortable stocks, but IPIX not available it seems. No options on it either.

Just have to watch this one and use it as an example and wait for the long opportunity:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/IPIX.jpg

spikefader
04-13-2004, 01:33 AM
what price level do you do see as a “smart” long entry price level for MAGS? If any of the security stocks can be considered a “smart buy” given there huge price appreciation as of late. :)
Michael, good point about the 'smart' buy given the bubble behavior. Real smart longs will probably wait for 50% retrace. Aggressive longs will attempt the channel play. It all comes down to having a plan you're comfortable with, and letting the cards fall as they may, and having the discipline to put your stop in and not move it.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_long_waiting.jpg

ForeverInvesting
04-13-2004, 02:02 AM
Thanks, Spikefader, I think I will go with the 50% retracement considering the huge gap up late week. Momo players buy hard when a stock is accelerating, but Momo players sell even harder when they start decelerating.

Michael

mimo_100
04-13-2004, 08:41 AM
Hello spikefader,

I posted this on the OFG thread then discovered this new thread.

Thank you for all of the great tech input.

I checked a couple of different sources regarding OFG's
historical prices. I show an interday high of 32.94 on April
1 and an interday low of 24.65 on February 4 versus your
33.06 and 24.52 on the chart at

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_Bullish.jpg

Why is StockCharts so different? :( Thanks.

Tim

Mi6op
04-13-2004, 09:01 AM
Hello Spike 2 questions:

1.) Could you give me your thoughts on PRFT

2.) What books or sources would your reccommend a person w/ very limited TA knowledge, gain a very good base and more?


Thanks

mi6

spikefader
04-13-2004, 09:52 AM
I'll continue discussion of NUTR mentioned in other thread here.

If you're long from y/day, here's the plan;

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_Take_profits.jpg

the threat of lawsuit no doubt caused that orange channel break, but if you got the good long entry, you're smiling with today's bounce. Would be wise to exit at 23.10.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 10:01 AM
Why is StockCharts so different?
Tim

There are often going to be different charts, as each site have their own data provider, and it's impossible to be exact, as odd trade transactions occur on one exchange and not on another - thus the reason for the difference.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 10:07 AM
The first spike up on a minute chart would have you short somewhere between 23 and 23.70 holding nicely now as she's falling.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 10:21 AM
Thanks, Spikefader, I think I will go with the 50% retracement considering the huge gap up late week. Momo players buy hard when a stock is accelerating, but Momo players sell even harder when they start decelerating.
Michael
Good plan. Channel action today suggests 25.00ish is channel support now. The way it is going, the small channel will expand soon and wipe out the long signal.

mimo_100
04-13-2004, 10:26 AM
Why is StockCharts so different?
Tim

There are often going to be different charts, as each site have their own data provider, and it's impossible to be exact, as odd trade transactions occur on one exchange and not on another - thus the reason for the difference.

Sorry for not being more precise in my question.

If you click on this,

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?OFG

the daily chart for OFG shows a high of 32.94 and a low of 24.65 around the first of February. How can StockCharts have two different values for
these days if they are using the same provider? Perhaps just a mistake,
but if we base fibonacci levels on wrong numbers, then we are in trouble
aren't we?

Thanks.

Tim

T

spikefader
04-13-2004, 10:35 AM
This one not looking too good technically.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_sell.jpg

spikefader
04-13-2004, 10:42 AM
Sorry for not being more precise in my question.
If you click on this,
http://stockcharts.com/gallery?OFG
the daily chart for OFG shows a high of 32.94 and a low of 24.65 around the first of February. How can StockCharts have two different values for
these days if they are using the same provider? Perhaps just a mistake,
but if we base fibonacci levels on wrong numbers, then we are in trouble
aren't we?
Tim

AH! Gotcha. I aplogise for my quickly created charts. I was obviously off with that FIB extension there. I'll point out now that my charts will be off here and there with FIB numbers. I'm not relying on the numbers being 'exact' to the penny, I'm simply using it as a tool to get a picture and don't need it precise for my purposes. Please excuse me for this.

Charts in this thread may, due to desire for speed in daytrading, be displaying FIB prices etc. that are not precise to the penny. Hope that's OK, I simply don't have time to make them perfect.

jiesen
04-13-2004, 01:25 PM
thanks for the insight, spike. I respect your opinion, but at the same time hope you're wrong!

The Photon
04-13-2004, 01:38 PM
Spike, What are your thoughts of a position in this stock? TRMM- Thanks The Photon

spikefader
04-13-2004, 01:55 PM
thanks for the insight, spike. I respect your opinion, but at the same time hope you're wrong!
Sure. Take the thread for what it is - technical search for perfect entries and logical exits. It'll be a thread probably more popular for those prepared to do more work on their entries and exits.

But while you bring up the concept of hope, my comment would be that if you are a serious trader and you want to be successful in ALL market conditions (bull, bear and range), you've got to get rid of hope. Hope has no place in trading and the disasterous consequences of hoping is seen in the faces of anyone holding Enron on the way down - hoping the whole time it would come back. Successful traders will tell you have a plan and trade it. If you are diversified and can afford one of your picks to die, or you're good at hedging, then cool. But if you're putting your eggs in only a few baskets, then hope will kill you in the end. Many will argue that the secret to successful trading is risk and money management combined with discipline. I agree 100 percent with that. The idea is to let your winners run, not your losers.

Bakxs
04-13-2004, 02:05 PM
Good Morning Spike.

Would you recommend a good website (or a book if none are available) that sums up many of the terms and theories you employ in your analysis.

I know some of them... but it would be nice to have a resource to reference.

Thanks again for your great feedback. And big props to $$MM$$ for making this all possible.

--Bakxs

jiesen
04-13-2004, 02:13 PM
point taken about the hoping bit.

But I do have a few reasons not to take your advice, and they are not in any way related to your analysis.

First, I am trying to stick to a plan in all of these picks, which consists of a simple strategy of buy and hold. This is purely based on the fundamentals that $$MM's screen uses, and which I understand, more or less. I figure most deviations from this plan, especially based on suggestions which I don't understand, would probably not benefit me.

Secondly, your TA is way over my head. It makes no sense to me, and that's only because I'm not educated enough in the area. Maybe with some work, or if I follow your ideas some more, I'll understand it, but for now, I can't justify acting on any TA, really... just don't trust my own skills there for it.

ForeverInvesting
04-13-2004, 02:17 PM
Spikefader,

I had set my limit order to sell OFG at $30.70 and, of course, my order did not get filled. My order probably was not filled because I placed a limit order. Stop orders are just as bad as limit orders. With stop orders, the problem is the bid-ask spread, especially with low volume securities like OFG.

My view is that I probably should hold OFG. What is your take, Spikefader?

I am not disappointed with missing the MAGS trade since it could have easily continued going down instead of rebounding back to the lower $30s. There is always a better trade, risk/reward wise, out there. The only problem is finding the better risk/reward ratio trades. I guess I learned something in school (I am a recent finance major) after all.

By the way, I subscribe to StockCharts.com as you do. Do you use the Scan Engine to find trading ideas? If you do, can you post or email me (at michaelt202@comcast.net), which ever you feel is appropriate, your Scan Engine trading screen?

Thanks,
Michael

spikefader
04-13-2004, 02:28 PM
Hello Spike 2 questions:
1.) Could you give me your thoughts on PRFT
2.) What books or sources would your reccommend a person w/ very limited TA knowledge, gain a very good base and more?
Thanks
mi6
Question 1:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/PRFT.jpg

Question 2: I've not bought one book believe it or not. Got everything I need online. Just get in to live chat stock trading rooms and watch the successful traders and ask questions. A good start is to either look through Stockcharts.com for TA stuff, or google for Elliott wave, FIBS, channels, patterns like bullflags, wedges, head and shoulders, support and resistence, where volume fits in. Just remember that there is no holy grail and nothing works perfectly. TA is only a tool to be used where you find a use for it. You need to find TA that suits your personality and trading style. Some people like to play momo and breakouts, others like to fade moves. Whichever TA tool you choose, you must build discipline around it so that it becomes your edge. The tool isn't your edge necessarily, but yoru discipline is. Whatever indicator or TA principles you blend into your trading, remember that risk management is integral in every successful trading plan. Control of emotion is the biggest hurdle to succes.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 02:48 PM
Spike, What are your thoughts of a position in this stock? TRMM- Thanks The Photon
I'd put an order in to buy it at today's low and look for a double bottom. Or, wait for 20.00 and buy it there. Channels at this stage say it could bounce well.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 02:51 PM
Good Morning Spike.
Would you recommend a good website (or a book if none are available) that sums up many of the terms and theories you employ in your analysis.
I know some of them... but it would be nice to have a resource to reference.
Thanks again for your great feedback. And big props to $$MM$$ for making this all possible.
--Bakxs
You're welcome. I listed a couple of websites earlier in the thread that have some very smart traders posting there. No books I could recommend, sorry.

spikefader
04-13-2004, 02:56 PM
point taken about the hoping bit....stick to a plan...simple strategy buy and hold.....purely based on fundamentals that $$MM's screen uses....deviations from plan, especially based on suggestions which I don't understand, would probably not benefit me...TA is way over my head..makes no sense to me....

Yep, and fair enough too. You've got your plan, and if you stick to it, then you can reward yourself no matter if the stocks rise or fall. That's the kind of discipline you need. If there is risk management in there, and it works for you, and at the end of the day, year or lifetime, you're profitable then you've done the right thing for you. TA isn't for everyone, and can only cause frustration when a person can't find anything consistent. It takes a LOT of hard work for sure.

Bakxs
04-13-2004, 02:56 PM
Thanks again.

I will take your advice and hopefully add to my box o' trading tools.

Good trading to everyone~

--Bakxs

spikefader
04-13-2004, 03:04 PM
limit order to sell OFG at $30.70 ... did not get filled...Stop orders are just as bad as limit orders. With stop orders, the problem is the bid-ask spread, especially with low volume securities like OFG.
My view is that I probably should hold OFG. What is your take?

By the way, I subscribe to StockCharts.com as you do. Do you use the Scan Engine to find trading ideas? If you do, can you post or email me (at michaelt202@comcast.net), which ever you feel is appropriate, your Scan Engine trading screen?


Ya, low volume stocks with stop orders can hurt you for sure. That's why it's a tricky business extricating yourself from some divers. You either bite the bullet and take the pain or you wait for a retracement. My view for OFG is per the last chart and may change again in 5 minutes time. all readers should remember that TA can turn on a dime so my stance will change more often than people consider worth the hassle. Right now, it's turned bearish to me. On that basis, I'm looking to exit any long I'd have - like at a logical resistence point, like 30.70, 31.10 or 31.40 are my intraday points I've got.

But consider this: You've riden it down to support and it looks like it's got potential to bounce from the price/volume area of 30. Thus far, itraday, it's lookin' bullish and could very well head up to recover and hit Mr.Market's target. Find what risk you have - put it in your plan, and trade that plan no matter what. Modify your plan certainly, but don't compromise a rule if you have one.

Websman
04-13-2004, 04:38 PM
Hey Spike...
How about some neighborly analysis on SGMS? I had a pretty decent profit until today. Looks like a sell off in heavy volume...not good. But, I'm still not over 8% down. Do you see any chances that this stock will rebound??? I hate to take a loss, but if I must I will.
My personal feeling is that it will form a base before breaking out again.

I'm am saddened by my potential loss...The market sucks right now :cry:

spikefader
04-13-2004, 06:43 PM
Hey Spike...
How about some neighborly analysis on SGMS? I had a pretty decent profit until today. Looks like a sell off in heavy volume...not good. But, I'm still not over 8% down. Do you see any chances that this stock will rebound??? I hate to take a loss, but if I must I will.
My personal feeling is that it will form a base before breaking out again.
I'm am saddened by my potential loss...The market sucks right now :cry:
Sure partner. I knew that poor volume at the channel touch was a good reason to pass on the long. Sorry you let a profit turn into a loss. Gotta love stops for that reason. Many say never let a profit turn into a loss and you can only do that if you're really disciplined.

You could hold out in hope that it's going to make a SHS formation (as in the pic below) or you might want to extricate yourself from it at the 4 day upper channel. Support at 19.70 failed today, which is now resistence. 20.20 is the next resistence I see intraday. I see no clear pattern intraday today to suggest a reason to buy it yet, such as head and shoulders or bull flag.

Anyway, the chart:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SGMS_todays_look.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SGMS_4_day_channel.jpg

spikefader
04-13-2004, 07:07 PM
Today's intraday patterns - only a weak looking SHS in the morning that gave buyers only enough reason to take it to the upper channel/moving averages. Simply not enough interested bulls to do it.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_intraday.jpg

Bakxs
04-13-2004, 09:22 PM
I was wondering what your charts come up with for MIDD & UWN.

If you are too busy, I fully understand & I'm sorry to be a bother. But after going over $$MM$$'s original Patriot Day Dump, these two stocks really stood out (along with FRN).

Thanks in advance.

--Bakxs

spikefader
04-13-2004, 09:44 PM
I was wondering what your charts come up with for MIDD & UWN.

MIDD and UWN - beautiful examples of patterns and stuff.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MIDD_Long.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/UWN_Long.jpg

ParkTwain
04-14-2004, 01:47 AM
I don't see you use the word "distribution" in your descriptions of chart activity. For instance, today was a distribution day (decline on higher volume than the previous up day). for MIDD.

mimo_100
04-14-2004, 07:26 AM
I don't see you use the word "distribution" in your descriptions of chart activity. For instance, today was a distribution day (decline on higher volume than the previous up day). for MIDD.


http://tinyurl.com/2hrbg

115.2 (today) vs. 194.8 (yesterday) :?:

spikefader
04-14-2004, 11:27 AM
I'd buy it right now anywhere between 49.00 and 49.20. Intraday triangle breakout.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MIDD_pullback.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MIDD_hourly.jpg

ForeverInvesting
04-14-2004, 03:54 PM
Spikefader,

It looks like the Nasdaq 100 Index may break (tomorrow perhaps) the 50 DMA at 1458. If it does, what price level would be a good short entry? Do you think it could go to the 200 DMA at the 1397 level?

Thanks,
Michael

spikefader
04-14-2004, 04:12 PM
The first spike up on a minute chart would have you short somewhere between 23 and 23.70 holding nicely now as she's falling.

Further to our sample "spikefade" trade setup for IPIX ...

A nice place to cover for here at 15.00 for +8.00 (had we been able to take the short - none on IB for me anyway). Covering end of day and around daily support as per previous charts.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/IPIX_cover.jpg

spikefader
04-14-2004, 04:43 PM
Spikefader,
It looks like the Nasdaq 100 Index may break (tomorrow perhaps) the 50 DMA at 1458. If it does, what price level would be a good short entry? Do you think it could go to the 200 DMA at the 1397 level?
Thanks,
Michael

I'm actually bullish on the market (and will remain so until my signals tell me otherwise), so it's hard to advise you on the short side. I think the smart money bought today's weakness and we will see new yearly highs over coming weeks.

If you were to short it, I'd be suggesting resistence at 1500ish with stops if it makes a bullish neckline break on the inverted head and shoulders the NDX is forming.

spikefader
04-15-2004, 10:17 AM
This one not looking too good technically.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_sell.jpg

Is today a day for OFG to bounce up from the gap area?

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_Gap_long.jpg

spikefader
04-15-2004, 10:35 AM
Spike, What are your thoughts of a position in this stock? TRMM- Thanks The Photon
I'd put an order in to buy it at today's low and look for a double bottom. Or, wait for 20.00 and buy it there. Channels at this stage say it could bounce well.

Did you take it long Photon?

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TRMM_daily.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TRMM_long.jpg

spikefader
04-15-2004, 11:15 AM
I'll continue discussion of NUTR mentioned in other thread here.

If you're long from y/day, here's the plan;

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_Take_profits.jpg

the threat of lawsuit no doubt caused that orange channel break, but if you got the good long entry, you're smiling with today's bounce. Would be wise to exit at 23.10.

Further to the above post and chart, and the NUTR chart posted in the other thread (here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=439&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start =30) here is the update. Perfect entry for the patient and nimble, and with new highs a very likely chance.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_update.jpg

billyjoe
04-15-2004, 12:45 PM
Spikefader, OK I'll admit I'm an idiot, but some of your graphs baffle me. I can understand a simple graph,chart,cup and handle and all that, but waves and oscillations on the same page with channels it's too much for me to comprehend. Could you explain some of it assuming I've no idea what it all means? Also does a bear market vs. bull market change your interpretation of the data .
Thanks billyjoe

ForeverInvesting
04-15-2004, 01:03 PM
What do think of GT? Long, short, neutral?

spikefader
04-15-2004, 01:24 PM
You have a gap fill, with a double bottom on QQQ. Now is a good time to buy - BASSAR theory. (Buy at Support, Sell at Resistence). Any long should have tight stops under LOD, that way if the setup fails, you don't get bitten. There will be better setups should the LOD fail.

EDIT: Forgot to mention a price :D Right here at 36.28 works for me, with stop at 36.20. How's that for a tight stop? :lol: The theory is, if the DB is valid, my stop won't get hit. If it gets hit, the DB is not valid.

spikefader
04-15-2004, 02:07 PM
You have a gap fill, with a double bottom on QQQ. Now is a good time to buy - BASSAR theory. (Buy at Support, Sell at Resistence). Any long should have tight stops under LOD, that way if the setup fails, you don't get bitten. There will be better setups should the LOD fail.

EDIT: Forgot to mention a price :D Right here at 36.28 works for me, with stop at 36.20. How's that for a tight stop? :lol: The theory is, if the DB is valid, my stop won't get hit. If it gets hit, the DB is not valid.
.08 stop out hit. Watching again for a perfect entry :D

grebnet
04-15-2004, 03:53 PM
I like your addition to the board.

Any thoughts on NOK announce tomorrow could be due for an oversold bounce.....or continue its plunge

spikefader
04-15-2004, 07:20 PM
Spikefader, OK I'll admit I'm an idiot, but some of your graphs baffle me. I can understand a simple graph,chart,cup and handle and all that, but waves and oscillations on the same page with channels it's too much for me to comprehend. Could you explain some of it assuming I've no idea what it all means? Also does a bear market vs. bull market change your interpretation of the data .
Thanks billyjoe
Hey billyjoe. LOL you think my stuff is hard to comprehend, you should check out detailed EW charts out there! Seriously, my stuff ain't no rocket science - just a blend of some common things every trader should have a basic understanding of.

Do me a huge favor and do some reasearch at stockcharts.com or even google terms you don't get. That would be a lot better than me taking up space in this thread teaching TA. I'd really prefer the thread remain more focussed.

For those saying it's too confusing to bother, I'll say this: in my humble experience, there is no one indicator that will work consistently all the time. BUT it's pretty cool when you blend some common stuff like wave theory, channels, patterns and fairly common indicators, like CCI divergences, and throw in support and resistence and volume, and come up with a plan of attack and make it work.

Consider this: I might use a regression channel to look for good entries, but it'd be silly if I ignore the likelihood that after a 5 wave move up people are going to take profits - based on EW theory. Or it'd be silly if I ignore the fact that volume is declining on a bullish move and heavy resistence is above. All I got time for now.

L8r

spikefader
04-15-2004, 09:31 PM
What do think of GT? Long, short, neutral?

Long if I had to choose, but I'll pass for better ones mentioned recently.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GT_long_perhaps.jpg

spikefader
04-15-2004, 09:44 PM
I like your addition to the board. Any thoughts on NOK announce tomorrow could be due for an oversold bounce.....or continue its plunge
Thanks. Hope I can save a few bucks for people by avoiding bad entries.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NOK_pass.jpg

scifos
04-16-2004, 12:05 AM
Spike: what's your opinion on a good entry point for ASDK? I was thinking about at 32.10

spikefader
04-16-2004, 12:46 AM
Spike: what's your opinion on a good entry point for ASDK? I was thinking about at 32.10
Hey scifos.
Wow, ASDK amazes me. Look at all the gap ups! While it is true that the trend is your friend, that's only true until it isn't. This puppy has been impressive since August and looking at the chart, I'd suggest caution with it. Channels set up right now for a long at current prices, but if it were me, I'd not tolerate it turning against me by much at all.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ADSK_weekly.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ADSK_daily.jpg

Bullshooter
04-16-2004, 08:26 AM
Spikefader,

I want to thank you for responding to my post a few days ago and for what you are doing here. The time and effort you are expending to help your fellow investors is admirable and demonstrates your generous nature. I know we're all sending you good karma.

I am long in only three stocks presently, SCHN, SAFM and OMNI, and I hoped you might share your thoughts. Fundamentally, all three appear to me to be very sound, nor do I think these are particularly interest rate sensitive, but from a TA perspective I do not know how to interpret Wednesday's plunge on SAFM (I bought more shares near the low, although I know many say averaging down is a mistake.) There was what I believe is a false alarm sell-off regarding an FDA warning letter regarding handling of chicken feed at one of the company's operations, but the company had already responded and the issue appears to have been resolved satisfactorily. Even the FDA said that the concern was not serious.

SCHN has formed a double bottom, but is now sitting at $31.93, just off of its 50 DMA, and below what I would see as a pivot point of $34.33. Do you see this pattern breaking down, or just forming a handle?

RE: OMNI, breakdown, or high handle?

Thank you for sharing any thoughts,

Bullshooter

P.S. Thanks again for your last suggestion, I am now using Bollinger bands and RSI's and am researching channels and Elliott waves. BigCharts on Ameritrade and Daily Graphs Online from IBD do not seem to offer all of the features of StockCharts and I am considering subscribing there as well.

grebnet
04-16-2004, 09:28 AM
RE NOK
Your techs were right. Fortunately all my $ was tied up yesterday else I would have bought hoping for a trade figuring they had already warned and had gotten trashed since..

stocks54
04-16-2004, 03:17 PM
Spikefader,

Thank you very much for your TA analysis. Any comments on HBIO?

Regards,

scifos
04-16-2004, 03:46 PM
re: ADSK, that blue midline is near the 31.10 entry I was estimating, still haven't decided if I'm going to buy or not. might wait to see that DB

Websman
04-16-2004, 04:26 PM
Spike!!!
You are awsome man!!!
Thanks for all you are doing. I hope none of us on here ever take you for granted. Your help is greatly appreciated.

And...thanks to $$$MR Market$$$ for being open minded and giving you an area to post in.

Rock on!!! :lol:

ForeverInvesting
04-16-2004, 04:32 PM
Spikefader,

SUNW missed there quarterly revenue and EPS targets yesterday and going forward it does not look good for SUNW. Would you short SUNW if it falls to $3.89? I see that there is a low price volume area under $3.89 on the daily chart. I would assume you would cover at the 52-week low at $3.13.

Thanks,
Michael

spikefader
04-16-2004, 06:03 PM
Spikefader,
I want to thank you ... I am long ... SCHN, SAFM and OMNI...
Thanks Bullshooter. Glad you're getting something out of it.
Check the charts out.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SCHN.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SAFM.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OMNI.jpg

spikefader
04-16-2004, 06:06 PM
RE NOK
Your techs were right. Fortunately all my $ was tied up yesterday else I would have bought hoping for a trade figuring they had already warned and had gotten trashed since..Glad that happened then! That NOK gem is buried deep and I'm not digging for it!
Just a passing comment on the "hoping for a trade figuring" words there. Replaced them with "planning for a trade calculating" and it sounds better :D

spikefader
04-16-2004, 06:14 PM
Spikefader,
Thank you very much for your TA analysis. Any comments on HBIO?
Regards,
Sure.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HBIO.jpg

spikefader
04-16-2004, 06:18 PM
Spike!!!
You are awsome man!!!
Thanks for all you are doing. I hope none of us on here ever take you for granted. Your help is greatly appreciated.
And...thanks to $$$MR Market$$$ for being open minded and giving you an area to post in.
Rock on!!! :lol:
Thanks bro. Yep, good on Mr.Market. Good to see interest out there on the topic of charting. It ain't perfect, and there will be plenty of failed setups, but that's where money management will save ya.

stocks54
04-16-2004, 06:27 PM
spikefader,

Thanks for your comments on HBIO.

Regards,

spikefader
04-17-2004, 01:57 AM
Spikefader,
Would you short SUNW if it falls to $3.89? low price volume area under $3.89 on the daily ... assume you would cover at the 52-week low at $3.13.
No I wouldn't. I don't think that level for SUNW is significant enough. Were it the Oct 02 support of 2.34, I'd consider it, but 2.34 is pretty low price-wise for my liking. I'd also be watching the futures to see what they're doing and might let them lead me. I will occasionally take a trade on a simple break of support in the right circumstances - like if the support is really significant, and there is a good pattern to go with it, like a really good intraday bear flag and the break of support was with good volume. In the right circumstances, that can work really well.

But what I really like is to wait for a condition to be met (most cases channel breakdown) and then look to enter the short after a bit of strength rather than weakness. For eg, a return up to a channel, then a rising intraday wedge breakdown or at intrady resistence levels, or intraday double top, or a break of an intraday SHS neckline, or a 20 day hourly upper bollinger band. That kind of entry really gives you an extraordinary edge than simply shorting a break of support. By doing that, you can set nice tight stops and improve your R/R. Shorting a break of support can be tricky stop-wise. Too often for my liking, price will break support, then the breakdown will be bought and take your stop out, or if you don't have a stop, finish the day nicely in the red. I prefer to start the trade with the best possible chance of immediate success, at a point where if the setup fails, it wasn't valid anyway, and then patiently wait for the next alert to go off.

Websman
04-17-2004, 09:53 AM
Spike
Whats your take on MAGS? Everyone seems so hyped up on this stock because of what happened to TASR. I, for one, am a little concerned about all this excitement and am staying out for now.
I am not a great chart reader like you yet, but what I'm seeing right is a possible, drastic drop in priced and a lot of people getting slammed to the floor. Could I be wrong??? Could MAGS really be the next TASR??? Could we all buy 10,000 shares and be filthy, stinking rich in 4 weeks???
Hmm....time will tell.

spikefader
04-17-2004, 12:10 PM
Spike
Whats your take on MAGS? Everyone seems so hyped up on this stock because of what happened to TASR. I, for one, am a little concerned about all this excitement and am staying out for now.
I am not a great chart reader like you yet, but what I'm seeing right is a possible, drastic drop in priced and a lot of people getting slammed to the floor. Could I be wrong??? Could MAGS really be the next TASR??? Could we all buy 10,000 shares and be filthy, stinking rich in 4 weeks???
Hmm....time will tell.
Last chart I actually posted relative to a long position was here waiting for the long entry at the lower channel:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_long_waiting.jpg
Can't recall if I posted this one or not; it's a snapshot outlining the reasoning for taking long on April 13 at an intraday triangle breakout at 28.00ish.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_long_April_13.jpg

My view currently is in this:
28.00ish was the long entry, with a logic stop below LOD on April 13 (26.80 was LOD). If you missed the entry, then put a limit order in at 26.85 and stop out on a break of 26.80, based on BASSAR theory. Otherwise, wait for another long entry at lower channel.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_review_April_17.jpg

Websman, re your question containing words like "concerned" "excitement", I'll say this: Control of any fear or exhuberance is essential. Don't listen to the crowd and get concerned or excited. As with ALL trades, calculate your max. stop, or pain based on support levels you see, and leave the stop in place and be disciplined and let them get taken out. Fact is, many gaps get filled and many stocks experience sharp drops, too often without warning and gap downs. This is why trading is risky. Know your own level of acceptable risk and act accordingly. There is no reason to fear MAGS, or TASR or any other stock for that matter, in fact there is no reason to let any emotion into your trading. Emotion is a no-no. Have a plan, and trade it without emotion and the success will come. Fear will only prevent you from entering valid setups, and lead you to take profits early. The second great emotional enemy, 'hope', will only cause you to let your losers run. A third bad emotion is exhuberence or excitement; it will only cause you to let a great profit turn into a stop out at even or worse. Trade a plan and don't have a regret if the stock turns out to quadruple from your exit. Be happy that you traded your plan, because it's the losers that CAN'T. Good trading! :D

noshadyldy
04-18-2004, 08:28 PM
Spike,
Do you think MACE was a flash in the pan, givin that they are not as largely in defense as the jump would have us believe?
Thank you for input.
Margie

spikefader
04-18-2004, 09:26 PM
Spike,
Do you think MACE was a flash in the pan, givin that they are not as largely in defense as the jump would have us believe?
Thank you for input.
Margie
Yep - MACE looks to me like a reaction jump to the hype. I'd steer clear of it completely, unless you want to short it at some point at resistence, because I think there is more chance that we see a full 100% retracement of the move. I'll do a chart for it later, gotta fly.

spikefader
04-19-2004, 04:08 PM
....long....OMNI...breakdown, or high handle?
Bullshooter,
Thought I'd throw a FYI at you re OMNI.

Long entry today from 5.83, with pretty tight stop discussed here: http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=466
Reason for tight stop - channel expansion and I read that as a break, so it's worth giving the long a chance, but the break is actually bearish and if the long runs up, then I'd close the trade on the touch of the next channel.

Websman
04-19-2004, 05:57 PM
Spkie,
Once again, thanks a lot for all of your great advice. I am now trying to remain unemotional. Kinda like Spock, from Star trek. Spock was very unemotional and would have made a great stock trader.
Of course, Spock may just have traded stocks from his quarters, aboard the Star Ship Enterprise and may have retired filthy rich. How would we know? He would have never mentioned his great trades to Capt. Kirk or any of the rest of us. I admire Spock for his great restraint and emotional unattachment.
Yes I must strive to be more Vulcan like. I can be a great Vulcan trader and make lots of Vulcan dollars. Then I'll buy a huge Vulcan yacht and lots of other great Vulcan stuff. I will not only be a great Vulcan trader, I will be the greatest Vulcan trader in the Vulcan Federation.
On second thought, I don't believe I'll buy that Vulcan Yacht and other stuff. I'll just turn my Vulcan profits back over into my trading account and be richer than Vulcan Bill Gates. Then I will buy a Vulcan beer for $$$Mr Market$$$ and yourself. You both will Vulcan deserve it for being part of the reason for me being so Vulcan wealthy.
Yes...I will trade like Spock. There's no Vulcan way I can lose like that...

I am not excited or overwhelmed...I am unemotional...

Oh, by the way, now that I am finished explaining my new approach to trading, Have you look at the charts for SIRI. I have been looking at it this week. Although I don't care much for stocks priced this low, the chart looks very interesting to my untrained Vulcan eye. What's even more interesting (not exciting) is the potential future of sattelite radio. This would definitely be a long term hold. Sirius radio will be an option in all Chrysler, Jeep and Mercedes cars, starting with the 2005 models coming out this fall. They will offer a one year, free subscription also. The price and chart may not be so hot, but I can see an interesting new technology beginning to catch on.
A point it would seem logical that the demand for this product will increase and the stock price will rise to higher levels.

Do you have any unemotional thoughts or technical analysis spike?

spikefader
04-19-2004, 06:25 PM
...a great Vulcan trader and make lots of Vulcan dollars...so Vulcan wealthy... :lol: :lol: :twisted: That's a great analogy! Trade like a Vulcan.

....SIRI....unemotional thoughts or technical analysis Sure do - what do you call a Boat in the distance? A Vulcan shame is what. I wouldn't chase from here. There will be another time for SIRI perhaps a new channel break soon, so long at the next channel after that.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SIRI.jpg

scifos
04-19-2004, 06:41 PM
Spike, any comments on ROV? Chart seems very bullish, but I'm new to charts and would like your opinion. Also, i've been eyeing IMCL and wondered if I had missed the boat so to speak.

spikefader
04-19-2004, 06:47 PM
Spike,
Do you think MACE was a flash in the pan, givin that they are not as largely in defense as the jump would have us believe?
Thank you for input.
Margie
Yep - MACE looks to me like a reaction jump to the hype. I'd steer clear of it completely, unless you want to short it at some point at resistence, because I think there is more chance that we see a full 100% retracement of the move. I'll do a chart for it later, gotta fly.
Inside day today - breakout soon up or down.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE.jpg

spikefader
04-19-2004, 07:19 PM
Spike, any comments on ROV? Chart seems very bullish, but I'm new to charts and would like your opinion. Also, i've been eyeing IMCL and wondered if I had missed the boat so to speak.

ROV's had a nice run up. The gap support/lower channel buy was the play, so boat is gone.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ROV.jpg


http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/IMCL.jpg

Michaelk005
04-19-2004, 08:55 PM
Hey spike, when your free, chart TK..
My TA is showing another spike in price to about $67 or $69

spikefader
04-19-2004, 09:32 PM
Hey spike, when your free, chart TK..
My TA is showing another spike in price to about $67 or $69
Might spike up, since just had a weekly lower channel buy signal, but the daily is showing weakness.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TK_weekly.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TK_Daily.jpg

spikefader
04-19-2004, 11:46 PM
FRN Update: Buy signal today. Long tomorrow as per instructions in graph. Suggest stop just below today's LOD of 18.15.

NB: Although the channel looks like today was the 3rd clear day above midline, that is because the reg channel has moved to show that. On those days, price still hugged the midline. Today is the first day to actually clear it and this show of strength can be bought aggessively at S1 or S2 (intraday support levels 1 or 2) with stops under today's LOD and targeting 24.50.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/FRN_Long.jpg

mimo_100
04-20-2004, 10:49 AM
Spike,

Here are some nice looking ones that were recently bypassed

As you noted, FRN looks higher.

Also, OTL from 3/26.

In addition, HZO, recently sold, continues on. :)

Tim

FundaMental1
04-20-2004, 12:12 PM
Spikefader,

I've beening following WFII for some time now and watched it swing between $12 and $18 per share for an extended period of time. It's currently sitting in the $10.50 range and it's fundamentals are solid (40% top line growth, 32x LTM PE, 23x forward PE) and it's in a great space. thinking about entering at these levels (earnings are on the 27th of this month however which makes me skittish). what do you think of the stock's technicals? as always, thanks for your analysis.

spikefader
04-20-2004, 01:24 PM
Here are some nice looking ones that were recently bypassed. As you noted, FRN looks higher. Also, OTL from 3/26. HZO continues on. :)
Tim
Yep, all three lookin' strong.

ForeverInvesting
04-20-2004, 02:00 PM
Spikefader,

I have seen your most recent update on MAGS. Do you think it will hold $30 which is the 38% retracement level? It looks like $30 may hold. Is your TA for MAGS the same as in your last update?

Thanks,
Michael

spikefader
04-20-2004, 04:41 PM
Took a position long CDE at $5.40. Stop is at 5.06.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_Long.jpg

spikefader
04-20-2004, 05:08 PM
Spikefader,
I have seen your most recent update on MAGS. Do you think it will hold $30 which is the 38% retracement level? It looks like $30 may hold. Is your TA for MAGS the same as in your last update?
Thanks,
Michael
Hey Michael. Latest thoughts on MAGS. The aggressive long position from 28.00 did GREAT!
This morning there was a logical exit at the upper channel for a very handsome 33% gain.
I don't know if it will hold 30. If you are long, I would bail on it if the red line doesn't hold. It would make NO sense to hold on with hope only, as you watch it retrace to look for support at the 50% or worse, 61.8%.
If you're considering a position, I would hold off until there is a bullish channel break, and look to enter at a lower channel.
My experience is that after the kind of moves we've seen, the stock will get jumpy as it oscillates to a point of equilibrium as the hype dies down. There are better longs out there right now.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_-_long_exit_today.jpg

spikefader
04-20-2004, 05:12 PM
I've beening following WFII for some time now and watched it swing between $12 and $18 per share for an extended period of time. It's currently sitting in the $10.50 range and it's fundamentals are solid (40% top line growth, 32x LTM PE, 23x forward PE) and it's in a great space. thinking about entering at these levels (earnings are on the 27th of this month however which makes me skittish). what do you think of the stock's technicals? as always, thanks for your analysis.
I'd pass on WFII.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WFII.jpg

carribean_mike
04-20-2004, 06:09 PM
Spike your chart analysis is impressive. I continue to study your charts to learn. I am curious as to how you develop your watch list. With so, many stocks in the universe - how do you zero in on potential buys.

I noticed that you purchased CDE. What is your current thinking of Gold and Silver? Maybe you can do a chart on the HUI. Thanks

spikefader
04-20-2004, 06:20 PM
FRN: Didn't give me the entry I wanted today so I passed on it. Looking at the daily candle, I suggest waiting for lower channel entry.

spikefader
04-20-2004, 11:39 PM
Spike your chart analysis is impressive.
Thank you :)

I continue to study your charts to learn.
Hope you get a lot out of it. It's pretty much the same stuff each time; a blend of channel behavior, volume by price, volume by movement, support resistence, common patterns, FIBs and EW. Throw in some sensible trade management and there you have it. Not everyone's cup of tea, but that stuff helps me greatly.

I am curious as to how you develop your watch list. With so, many stocks in the universe - how do you zero in on potential buys.
Well, I don't spend a lot of time looking. I've noticed that this site throws a lot of good ones around. I also check out Zeev's board at http://www.investorshub.com/boards/board.asp?board_id=1125 and sometimes the boards at http://www.fool.com/. I'll do simple scans at stockcharts.com and sometimes look at strong performing stocks at http://www.equitytrader.com. I like trading the eminis these days so I devote a lot of time to them.

I noticed that you purchased CDE. What is your current thinking of Gold and Silver? Maybe you can do a chart on the HUI. Thanks
Well, the recent selloff is a bit unexpected actually - or at least the pace of it. Today's precious metals selloff obviously linked closely to Greenspan comments and the USD bullishness. The USD chart looks pretty bullish, so what precious metals will do from here will be interesting. Here's a chart of HUI for you.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HUI.jpg

spikefader
04-20-2004, 11:46 PM
MACE update:

Surprise surprise 8)
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE_the_start_of_the_end.jpg

spikefader
04-21-2004, 12:08 AM
NUTR update from http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=456&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start =45
Can ride this with breakeven stop until signals take us out or target reached.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_hold_long.jpg

noshadyldy
04-21-2004, 01:22 AM
I just want to thank you spike for your insight on Mace. I got a little burned on it before but hope to make it back on shorting it a bit. I really appreciate your expertise.
margie

Michaelk005
04-21-2004, 01:25 AM
I am a big gold trader in case you didnt know spike. I have owned CDE more times then I can count.. If your are interested in a few reversals that are in perfect wave count and fibbonnoci sequence.. Try DROOY and WHT
For my thoughts on the recent slide in gold.. Traders are not sure about what type of gold bull run they are on.. They are comparing what is happening to the last bull run of the early 80's.. Therefore any news that is not in parrallel with there current mind set leads to a sell off. Todays Greenspan news on Deinflation should do nothing but support golds current bull status, Todays dip was nothing more then scared traders. GOld will bounce to $410 before next tues..

spikefader
04-21-2004, 08:35 AM
I just want to thank you spike for your insight on Mace. I got a little burned on it before but hope to make it back on shorting it a bit. I really appreciate your expertise.
margie
You're welcome. Good luck on a short if your broker has it available. I'd suggest only shorting at resistence today, with tight stops that won't burn. That way if your setup is wrong, you admit it quickly and get back in the hunt for the perfect entry again without any pain.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE_short.jpg

spikefader
04-21-2004, 08:55 AM
For lovers of OFG, now is a logical entry point.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_another_long_entry.jpg

noshadyldy
04-21-2004, 09:00 AM
thanks again Spike. I'm glad you're here.

margie

spikefader
04-21-2004, 09:16 AM
I am a big gold trader in case you didnt know spike. I have owned CDE more times then I can count.. If your are interested in a few reversals that are in perfect wave count and fibbonnoci sequence.. Try DROOY and WHT
For my thoughts on the recent slide in gold.. Traders are not sure about what type of gold bull run they are on.. They are comparing what is happening to the last bull run of the early 80's.. Therefore any news that is not in parrallel with there current mind set leads to a sell off. Todays Greenspan news on Deinflation should do nothing but support golds current bull status, Todays dip was nothing more then scared traders. GOld will bounce to $410 before next tues..
Thanks for the info! Hey, what are your thoughts on speculation that silver has been manipulated for years and that there could be an enormous short squeeze sometime?

spikefader
04-21-2004, 09:32 AM
SPF Update:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SPF_Update.jpg

spikefader
04-21-2004, 10:15 AM
CDE update: Exited at 5.06 for -.34.
Re-entered long 5.08.
Reasoning: This morning's USD price action suggests weakness which should will help CDE, and PAAS (Silver mining co. that tends to lead) bullish break of inverted SHS neckline.

CDE stop is now 5.05

EDIT: PAAS bullflag intraday, so the new entry looks like it might be perfect.

spikefader
04-21-2004, 10:41 AM
OFG: Should be long 28.50 for another perfect entry, with stops to breakeven now 8)

jiesen
04-21-2004, 12:20 PM
you did say 28.5, didn't you?!

Should I just call you Mr. Genius now? I think I will.

chopper77
04-21-2004, 01:50 PM
Spike-

I love your analysis, please keep it up I'm learning a helluva lot. I was never to big on TA.

What do you think of GGI right now?

spikefader
04-21-2004, 02:01 PM
CDE stop is now 5.05


Obviously CDE stopped out for another -.03. Small losses at logical points of failure while occasionally frustrating are a necessary evil and it's who loses the best in this game that wins the best :)
Today's action is long-term bearish for precious metals IMO, but I'll not be chasing short now. Perhaps channels down the road.

spikefader
04-21-2004, 02:05 PM
you did say 28.5, didn't you?!
Should I just call you Mr. Genius now? I think I will.
:lol: Well, don't get too excited. They don't all work out perfect as you can see :) Again, OFG is cautious long, so I'm not expecting great things from it yet - I'll let the chart talk to me.

spikefader
04-21-2004, 02:07 PM
Spike-
I love your analysis, please keep it up I'm learning a helluva lot. I was never to big on TA.
What do you think of GGI right now?
Glad to hear that my thoughts are contributing in a positive way. This isn't the perfect methodology - there isn't one imo, but it's workable and can be held accountable. TA can really be a good timing tool for good FA (which I'm not big into). That's why I thought people on this board would maybe appreciate it considering there are some outstanding FA calls here.

Re GGI, here is what I posted on these boards a few days back highlighting the caution for longs http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GGI_wait.jpg
Today
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GGI_update.jpg

Iggy
04-21-2004, 02:52 PM
Any comments on today's action in FRN? Just fell right off a cliff this morning.

mmaarrkk88
04-21-2004, 02:54 PM
Spiketrader,
Thanks for the insights. Any comments for EPEX & CRR?

spikefader
04-21-2004, 03:04 PM
Any comments on today's action in FRN? Just fell right off a cliff this morning.
I hope you saw my last entry here (bottom of the page) http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=456&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start =75&sid=9d41f47bcc0e39cba536b25e29bbfdbf
Usually a good idea to be cautious with a candle like that one yesterday. Didn't give me an entry so I thought I'd pass on it, especially after yesterday's market conditions. Movement recently is illustrative of why stops tight stops are so important!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/FRN_update.jpg

scifos
04-21-2004, 04:04 PM
Spike, dare I say I am learning more from you than Mr. Market? Of course I am, but still, he has helped me make more money :) Thanks for all the insightful work you do, and so prompt!

scifos
04-21-2004, 04:17 PM
Spike, VIP has been in a bit of a decline. Could you help me out on figuring out the 38.1% retracement level (I think thats the right fib number) and also where the channels are, and how you figure out where the channels are? Thank you so much. I know I should read a book for questions like that, but most of those things are in greek.

spikefader
04-21-2004, 04:23 PM
Spike, dare I say I am learning more from you than Mr. Market? Of course I am, but still, he has helped me make more money :) Thanks for all the insightful work you do, and so prompt!Thanks for the positive feedback :) Glad to be of help.

spikefader
04-21-2004, 04:35 PM
Spike, VIP has been in a bit of a decline. Could you help me out on figuring out the 38.1% retracement level (I think thats the right fib number) and also where the channels are, and how you figure out where the channels are? Thank you so much. I know I should read a book for questions like that, but most of those things are in greek.
VIP - the long from 70 as you can see, was the one to take.
38.2 fib is 89.36 from the move on the chart.

Re channels and how I figure out where they are, if you mean how do I figure out where to start them from, the answer is pretty self-explanatory - from nearby highs/lows to get a picture of the bigger movement. I put them whereever they seem logical. If however, you mean how do I work out the width of the channel lines, I don't figure that out, the regression channels do that themselves. You don't need to have a paid subscription with stockcharts.com to draw them. Just go to http://stockcharts.com/ and put a ticker code in, then when the chart appears, click the 'annotate' option under the chart, and it will open up a chart with tools. Click reg channel button and then click and drag the channel, and it will draw the channel for you, and it will change with each new day. They are not fixed, but they adjust on a daily basis, which is why they are helpful in spotting trend changes.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/VIP.jpg

scifos
04-21-2004, 05:13 PM
Re VIP, seems to be falling through a low volume price range, but the 38.2% retracement level is where volume picks back up, it will be important to see if it falls past that or trends back up with volume.

Thanks for the pointers, I made a chart that looked similar to yours!

spikefader
04-21-2004, 09:33 PM
BEL UPDATE:

For those long this stock, I'm rooting for a recovery for you all. Here is the setup I see for tomorrow:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_update.jpg

par3bo
04-21-2004, 10:09 PM
Spike,
I am too new to begin to understand your charts.

Can you suggest a web site that may give me a start on an education?


Bo

par3bo
04-21-2004, 10:09 PM
Spike,
I am too new to begin to understand your charts.

Can you suggest a web site that may give me a start on an education?


Bo

spikefader
04-21-2004, 10:12 PM
Spiketrader,
Thanks for the insights. Any comments for EPEX & CRR?
Sure.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/EPEX.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CRR.jpg

yaoyao
04-22-2004, 12:25 AM
Spike,

I really like your charts, especially the comments. Thanks for your time on this.

I owned DRAX for three months now (entered at 3.70). Watched it to hit 5.90 and dived to 3.81 as today. I kicked myself for letting 50% profit slipping away. Could you help me to analyze this stock to see if I should still hold it and wait it to bounce back, or completely out of position. It does have very strong EPS and RS rating.

Thank you very much.

spikefader
04-22-2004, 01:30 AM
Spike,
I really like your charts, especially the comments. Thanks for your time on this. I owned DRAX for three months now (entered at 3.70). Watched it to hit 5.90 and dived to 3.81 as today. I kicked myself for letting 50% profit slipping away. Could you help me to analyze this stock to see if I should still hold it and wait it to bounce back, or completely out of position. It does have very strong EPS and RS rating.
Thank you very much.
Thanks, and you're welcome.

You've got yourself a frustrating one there; sorry to read you let that 50% get away from you. We've all done it, so join the club.

In hindsight, this chart shows you that you had 2 warning signals up around 5.00; the channel turndown and the hole in volume by price. That was the place to close it for 35% profit, and maybe look to reenter down the road.

If it were me, I'd close tomorrow or set breakeven stop. Don't hold it and watch it turn into a LOSS!!!!! I'd wait for the red channel touch. Once it touches, you wait for a pattern to enter. You might just nail a perfect entry :)
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DRAX.jpg

spikefader
04-22-2004, 10:21 AM
SPF Update:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SPF_Update.jpg
The perfect entry could have been achieved yesterday at any of the black circles. Logical stop is under low on the day Ernie entered.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SPF_intraday_Wed.jpg

yaoyao
04-22-2004, 10:38 AM
Thanks for your advice on DRAX. THere was news coming out last night about an aproved drug. I'll hold on it for now. I'll definitely use the chart to determine my exit ooint next time.

Another question. how often do you examine the charts for a particular stock? It doesnt look like change much as long as there is no big price/volume move.

Thanks.

spikefader
04-22-2004, 11:00 AM
Thanks for your advice on DRAX. THere was news coming out last night about an aproved drug. I'll hold on it for now. I'll definitely use the chart to determine my exit ooint next time.
Another question. how often do you examine the charts for a particular stock? It doesnt look like change much as long as there is no big price/volume move.
Thanks.
Alright then, good luck with it. Whatever you do, don't let a great profit turn into a loss - please put stop to even! You WILL regret it later if you don't do it, trust me. FYI, today it has already failed once at intraday R1 (resistence 1) at 4.01 (which also happens to be the 20 day reg channel midline, so that R1 is strong. The pivot is 3.91, so if that pivot fails, it's not good. Also remember that news often gets sold. I think you're holding a stock with more chance of going down than up right now. But if you are following your rules, then good for you!

To you question, if I'm long or short a particular stock, I'll always either have an eye on the chart or have alarms in place if I'm not.

yaoyao
04-22-2004, 12:02 PM
Thanks for your advice on DRAX. THere was news coming out last night about an aproved drug. I'll hold on it for now. I'll definitely use the chart to determine my exit ooint next time.

Another question. how often do you examine the charts for a particular stock? It doesnt look like change much as long as there is no big price/volume move.

Thanks.

spikefader
04-22-2004, 12:29 PM
Déjà Vu or there's an echo in here :D

spikefader
04-22-2004, 12:32 PM
MACE update for short:

further to this chart:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE_short.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE_intraday_entries.jpg

spikefader
04-22-2004, 12:51 PM
BEL UPDATE:

For those long this stock, I'm rooting for a recovery for you all. Here is the setup I see for tomorrow:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_update.jpg
BEL double top today is what the smart shorts are waiting for. Today's daily channel action signals bullish breakout, so I'd give this short one attempt short right here at 13.48, with stop at 13.51 and if it fails, walk away from it completely.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_double_top.jpghttp://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_stopped.jpg
Stopped out for -.03 and no significant damage, yet gave a really valid setup a chance for a perfect entry. All you BEL longs can breath a sigh of relief, because this could head north now, with a failed short setup like that one. The next real resistence will be the gap.

spikefader
04-22-2004, 01:40 PM
GGI update: no longer bearish!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GGI_update2.jpg

noshadyldy
04-22-2004, 02:39 PM
Thanks for posting the update on MACE for shorts. I've been short since 5.90 and 6.16. (Actually, i've been short since the 1950's but we won't go there) :lol: Good things in small packages, no?
Anyway, I think i'll hold onto those shorts of mine for awhile, since I know as soon as I let go of them, there will be no more available. Also my brokerage doesn't allow shorts under $5.
Also, I'm going nuts with MAGS. I couldn't decide today whether it was a long or a short. Well, it's tanking alright but not without taking me with it. RATS! Shall we short that too? How far?
Thanks.
Margie

spikefader
04-22-2004, 02:54 PM
Thanks for posting the update on MACE for shorts. I've been short since 5.90 and 6.16. (Actually, i've been short since the 1950's but we won't go there) :lol: Good things in small packages, no?
Anyway, I think i'll hold onto those shorts of mine for awhile, since I know as soon as I let go of them, there will be no more available. Also my brokerage doesn't allow shorts under $5.
Also, I'm going nuts with MAGS. I couldn't decide today whether it was a long or a short. Well, it's tanking alright but not without taking me with it. RATS! Shall we short that too? How far?
Thanks.
Margie
Nice. Good luck with it.
for MAGS:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MAGS_short.jpg

spikefader
04-22-2004, 03:02 PM
Mace bear flag today. And below blue support is good :)
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MACE_intraday_bear_flag.jpg

IIC
04-22-2004, 06:38 PM
Spike...Could I trouble you for one of your famous charts/analyses on my largest holding...WITS...up over 6% A/H on eps/guidance...THX in advance...IIC

spikefader
04-22-2004, 07:31 PM
Spike...Could I trouble you for one of your famous charts/analyses on my largest holding...WITS...up over 6% A/H on eps/guidance...THX in advance...IIC
Lookin' good for you! Target is 21.42 - had you been watching and got the 10.80 entry on the intrady SHS break, and say it hits target, that's 98% return :D
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WITS_weekly.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WITS_today.jpg

noshadyldy
04-22-2004, 07:31 PM
Thanks Again, Spike. Much appreciated.

margie

IIC
04-22-2004, 07:57 PM
Thank you very much Spike...Best, IIC

spikefader
04-22-2004, 08:05 PM
And for the disbelievers on having a reason to enter intraday:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WITS_intraday_entry_reason.jpg

Websman
04-22-2004, 08:28 PM
Spike,
Once again, I can not praise you enough! You have taught me a lot of great lessons. So far, everything you have said has made sense.
Because of you I did not take a long position in MAGS and I am now glad I didn't. Boy has it dropped!
Now, if I can manage to learn some of your chart reading techniques and combine that with $$$Mr Markets$$$ fundamental stock picking skills, I will truly become a great Vulcan like (non emotional) trader and turn my trading account into a multi-million dollar portfolio!
Someone may have already asked, but where do you get your candlestick charts from?

You are truly wise. I can only hope that you will hang around awhile on this board. Thankyou! :wink:

spikefader
04-22-2004, 09:59 PM
Spike,
Once again, I can not praise you enough! You have taught me a lot of great lessons. So far, everything you have said has made sense.
Because of you I did not take a long position in MAGS and I am now glad I didn't. Boy has it dropped!
Now, if I can manage to learn some of your chart reading techniques and combine that with $$$Mr Markets$$$ fundamental stock picking skills, I will truly become a great Vulcan like (non emotional) trader and turn my trading account into a multi-million dollar portfolio!
Someone may have already asked, but where do you get your candlestick charts from?
You are truly wise. I can only hope that you will hang around awhile on this board. Thankyou! :wink:
Great! Glad you're picking some useful stuff up and avoided that bad entry.

Yes, I agree, combining great fundamentals with some thoughtful chart reading that can snag you those perfect entries is what we should all strive to achieve.

My intraday charting is Quotetracker ( www.quotetracker.com ). Thanks for the compliment.

grebnet
04-23-2004, 02:40 PM
Any TA thoughts on AMCC ?

spikefader
04-23-2004, 03:08 PM
Any TA thoughts on AMCC ?
Sure.
Here's a chart I drew a while back http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/AMCC_neutral_to_bullish.jpg
And here's today's:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/AMCC_update.jpg

grebnet
04-23-2004, 03:20 PM
Thanks I will watch , I have read some on TA but didnt come away with anything close to your fund of knowledge and am finding it hard (i have looked) to find a good intro boof to TA. I know you mentioned online sites as a source but I need a book to carry around and read.Any suggestions ?

spikefader
04-23-2004, 06:45 PM
Thanks I will watch , I have read some on TA but didnt come away with anything close to your fund of knowledge and am finding it hard (i have looked) to find a good intro boof to TA. I know you mentioned online sites as a source but I need a book to carry around and read.Any suggestions ?
Sorry, never bought or borrowed a single book on TA, so I can't recommend one. But I've read plenty on the Net. If you have a thirst for TA knowledge, it's amazing what you can find on the Web. Just surf and read, and spend time in chat rooms discussing TA. But the most important thing about trading (separate from a good technical setup) is learning to control your emotions - with entries, targets and stops. Different emotions for each situation, and that's something that you'll only fully appreciate when you actually trade with real money. I'm sure there are outstanding books worth reading; I just don't know what they are, so you're better off asking someone else. Sorry for not being more helpful.

IIC
04-23-2004, 10:48 PM
I am a 20+ yr Canslimmer who turned more technical...I am not going to say I know anywhere as much about T/A as Spike...But I know more than many. I suggest a very easy read for investors who are just beginning to learn T/A...I have the original 1962 version and I found that it was a good starter....Worth the $$$ for those just getting into T/A:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/stocks/education/bookreviews/bom.cfm?th=109&id=119

You'll even learn that O'Neil didn't discover the Cup w/ Handle...He just changed the name from Saucer w/ Platform.

It won't make you an expert but it is a start...Best, IIC

spikefader
04-23-2004, 11:44 PM
Not TA, but still Hightly Recommended Free Online Reading:
http://www.webtrading.com/phantom/chapter5.htm
This covers Rule 1 of Phatom of the Pits. This rule will save you from ever falling into hope and becoming an Enro-like casualty.

"IN A LOSING GAME SUCH AS TRADING WE SHALL ... ASSUME WE ARE WRONG UNTIL PROVEN CORRECT....POSITIONS MUST BE REMOVED UNLESS THE MARKET PROVES THE POSITION CORRECT. Most traders plan only for the probability side and that to them is always what they consider the winning side. This is the biggest mistake you can make in trading. You must plan for the losing side."

spikefader
04-24-2004, 12:05 PM
If you are bearish on the market, resistence of the neckline is the place to enter short, but a break of the neckline is bullish, so be warned.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/key_point.jpg

spikefader
04-24-2004, 12:46 PM
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_Weekly_bullish.jpg

rickg777
04-25-2004, 08:34 AM
What are your thoughts on WIRE? I bought a around 34. and Friday it hit a new high, but on a candlestick chart it shows that even with the high volume and wide trading range, the bears won out. Is this the time to bail out before a reversal?

spikefader
04-25-2004, 09:33 AM
What are your thoughts on WIRE? I bought a around 34. and Friday it hit a new high, but on a candlestick chart it shows that even with the high volume and wide trading range, the bears won out. Is this the time to bail out before a reversal?
Weekly saying caution. Daily saying breakeven stop (or stop tucked tight under 34.00 - lod from 3 weeks ago) with a chance for higher highs. You got a frustrating one there: a profitable trade that could stop you out because of that very light volume spike up on Thursday night. Thursday there was a nice intraday triangle that broke bullish and then that spike up AH, was there news? Anyway, the light volume gap up (low vol itself a warning to take profits) got sold and in hindsight, it's easy to see a logical place for you have exited intraday on Friday was just under the failed double bottom at 38.50. That would have locked you in for 4.5 point gain and had you exiting for a logical failure of pretty important support - DB after a gap up that fails, usually will scare the crowd to exit longs and send it searching for support lower. Anyway, it's tested the Thursday highs and formed a triple intraday bottom on Friday, so it might get bought from the bell on Monday, but that weekly candle has put some doubt in the chart. Whatever you do, don't let it turn into a loser. There will be another perfect entry for it if you're watching it.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WIRE.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WIRE_weekly.jpg

rickg777
04-25-2004, 10:31 AM
Thanks a million for the nice analysis. I will set the stop at breakeven. The news out Thurs. evening was an earnings release of record sales and income. Qtly. net sales +137%. (copper wire business) I'm familiar with the MACD, but what is the CC you are using?

spikefader
04-25-2004, 11:08 AM
Thanks a million for the nice analysis. I will set the stop at breakeven. The news out Thurs. evening was an earnings release of record sales and income. Qtly. net sales +137%. (copper wire business) I'm familiar with the MACD, but what is the CC you are using?You're welcome. Good luck with it. CCI is commodity channel index.

carlton02
04-25-2004, 05:35 PM
Spike
Can you please look at these two and provide an expert chart as to there possibilities/

I dearly like them both.
thanks a million ......

carlton

motyeh
04-26-2004, 01:24 AM
Spike,

Could you take a look at NFLD and ARTX for me. I'm a newbie (that may be obvious after you look at the charts) and I just can't figure out where they're going.

NFLD has a long-lasting, disease free, artificial hemoglobin that can be administered to anyone regardless of blood type, to be used in emergency (accident, military, rare blood type) situations that appears to be holding up well in Stage III trials. ARTX has shifted its market focus to security, with improving fundamentals, its first quarter of profits, $25 mill backlog of orders, etc., and jumps like a rabbit on any news. Any clarification would be greatly appreciated.

By the way, what would be on your required reading list for Technical Analysis?

Thanks Much
Tom

carribean_mike
04-26-2004, 07:40 AM
Spike, Would you mind doing a chart on the QQQ on a regular basis? I don't know if daily is too much, but at least weekly. Many of us follow NASDAQ stocks and seeing a chart on a regular basis would be very educational. Thanks for all of your hard work.....

Websman
04-26-2004, 06:19 PM
Spike,
I looking at the chart for WITS and My human side is saying, "Get in now before it runs further!" , but my Vulcan side is saying, "Don't be a Vulcan fool. Wait for a pullback. Good Vulcans don't chase spaceships after they leave orbit."

Has anyone else been looking at WITS with lustful human eyes like I have? I must quit letting my human side make desicions. Does anyone have any suggestions. I wonder what the great chartmaster, known as Spikefader would do in a situation such as this. I am guessing the answer would be... Wait for a pulback young Vulcan!

scifos
04-26-2004, 10:25 PM
Spike, any comments on an entry point for AUO? After the move it made today I might have to wait for a dip.

noshadyldy
04-26-2004, 10:35 PM
Spike,
I looking at the chart for WITS and My human side is saying, "Get in now before it runs further!" , but my Vulcan side is saying, "Don't be a Vulcan fool. Wait for a pullback. Good Vulcans don't chase spaceships after they leave orbit."

Has anyone else been looking at WITS with lustful human eyes like I have? I must quit letting my human side make desicions. Does anyone have any suggestions. I wonder what the great chartmaster, known as Spikefader would do in a situation such as this. I am guessing the answer would be... Wait for a pulback young Vulcan!


Websman, WITS was addressed two pages back on page 9. WITS looks great . I'm in.

spikefader
04-26-2004, 11:17 PM
Spike
Can you please look at these two and provide an expert chart as to there possibilities/
I dearly like them both.
thanks a million ......
carlton
AMED looks pretty good. I'd look for the next channel entry long 28.40ish at the moment.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/AMED.jpg
EPEX chart a few days ago:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/EPEX.jpg
and today:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/EPEX2.jpg

spikefader
04-26-2004, 11:35 PM
Spike,

Could you take a look at NFLD and ARTX for me. I'm a newbie (that may be obvious after you look at the charts) and I just can't figure out where they're going.
NFLD has a long-lasting, disease free, artificial hemoglobin that can be administered to anyone regardless of blood type, to be used in emergency (accident, military, rare blood type) situations that appears to be holding up well in Stage III trials. ARTX has shifted its market focus to security, with improving fundamentals, its first quarter of profits, $25 mill backlog of orders, etc., and jumps like a rabbit on any news. Any clarification would be greatly appreciated.
By the way, what would be on your required reading list for Technical Analysis?
Thanks Much
Tom
NFLD looks good. Came close to perfect channel entry couple days back...just keep waiting for a channel entry.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NFLD.jpg
ARTX, maybe in the process of 1 to 5 wave move, but channels not setting up for this one yet...
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ARTX.jpg
already discussed required reading earlier in thread.

spikefader
04-26-2004, 11:37 PM
Spike, Would you mind doing a chart on the QQQ on a regular basis? I don't know if daily is too much, but at least weekly. Many of us follow NASDAQ stocks and seeing a chart on a regular basis would be very educational. Thanks for all of your hard work.....
Sure thing mike, maybe weekly or any time I see significant moments. Thanks for the thanks :)

spikefader
04-26-2004, 11:43 PM
Spike,
I looking at the chart for WITS and My human side is saying, "Get in now before it runs further!" , but my Vulcan side is saying, "Don't be a Vulcan fool. Wait for a pullback. Good Vulcans don't chase spaceships after they leave orbit."
Has anyone else been looking at WITS with lustful human eyes like I have? I must quit letting my human side make desicions. Does anyone have any suggestions. I wonder what the great chartmaster, known as Spikefader would do in a situation such as this. I am guessing the answer would be... Wait for a pulback young Vulcan!
Yes, you got it ... wait for a pullback young Vulcan. The emotion associated with fear of missing the train can lead to insane decisions...and then regret.....and then hope....and then depression bla bla bla. Keep your emotions in check and use that Vulcan reasoning to patiently wait for logical entries when there is momentary weakness. Haggle with the seller. Make the seller chase you. She'll come down on a simple retracement for whatever reason, and when she does, that's when you move in calmly and push the button. That earlier intraday chart for WITS was the absolute perfect entry. Weakness, support channel level, intraday pattern, breakout, boom. That's what you need to search for.

spikefader
04-27-2004, 12:06 AM
Spike, any comments on an entry point for AUO? After the move it made today I might have to wait for a dip.
tricky one. EDIT: in chart I say 'red channel', should read 'pink channel'
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/AUO.jpg

spikefader
04-28-2004, 12:47 PM
This is simple pattern trading. And it's a perfectly logical place to buy. SHS on daily, with SHS intraday. Long 36.40, stops tucked under low of day.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/qqq.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/qqq_intraday.jpg

spikefader
04-28-2004, 02:22 PM
And another bigger inverted SHS.
EDIT: Should be stopped out for only -.21. The setup was not valid, and no pain. Got to love those stops. :lol: 8)
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/qqq_intraday2.jpg

spikefader
04-28-2004, 03:56 PM
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_yet_another_long_entry.jpg

bigheart_md
04-29-2004, 10:33 PM
Spike,

What do you think of TASR?? Is the momentumn gone??
Garry Smith on Cashin' in predicted that TASR will be 1/2 of Friday's price by October.

I saw a double top break down yesterday.

Mr. Market, what do you think? Thanks.

Thank you.

spikefader
04-30-2004, 12:26 AM
Spike,
What do you think of TASR?? Is the momentumn gone??
Garry Smith on Cashin' in predicted that TASR will be 1/2 of Friday's price by October.
I saw a double top break down yesterday.
Mr. Market, what do you think? Thanks.
Thank you.
Momo gone?? Maybe...maybe not. Depends on your definition of momentum I guess, and whether you like to short. I think there will be some good momo in it, but it'll be likely South. I think it will be tricky and choppy for a couple months as it makes a right shoulder and then breaks the neckline, comes back up for a trendline kiss of death maybe, and then perhaps some quick selling. I would recommend people steer clear of it, unless you are nimble.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TASR_possible.jpg

Michaelk005
04-30-2004, 12:42 AM
I think your poosibility is correct, the neckline also makes for an A, B ,C formation after your 5th. and it is followed by a large correction. Simple wave count, 90% possible

yaoyao
04-30-2004, 11:53 AM
Spike.

What would be your pick among Mr. Market's top5 based on chart study: cach, mpx, deck, hubg, nutr. cach is definately not my pick a this time based on its action today. I like nutr, but would like to wait to see how it acts around 50MA. Thanks.

Yaoyao

FundaMental1
04-30-2004, 12:00 PM
Hey Spike,

I only call you when i need you :)

I am thinking of a taking a position on JMAR (a nano play) at $2 or below. it's currently at 2.18. it seems like the last time it hit $2.00 it popped to $3.50 in the next month and has begun a trend down again from that level. what does the chart say about taking a long position at $2 or below (or do you think it will even get to $2)?

as always thank you for your charting guruness!

chopper77
04-30-2004, 03:25 PM
Spike you are the man!

Any thoughts on CAG?

Kind of a boring company, but they have been running lately! Thanks for the help man.

bka58
04-30-2004, 04:32 PM
Spike,

Can to offer your thoughts on MMs recent top 5?

Websman
04-30-2004, 05:34 PM
Spike,

What do you think of the market direction and do you trade in poor market conditions? I've already asked Mr Market for his thoughts on this, but I value your thoughts as well.
I am still on the lookout for good buying opportunities, but I will scrutinize them much more carefully.

Live long and prosper, oh great Chartmaster.

bigheart_md
04-30-2004, 09:44 PM
Spike,

Thank you for taking the time to help me. You are great!

Mi6op
05-03-2004, 02:36 PM
Hi Spike, Thanks for your responses in the past. My question again is PRFT. It just dropped about 8% today as of 2:40 EST. I'm looking to double up and am curious of what is a good entry point at this time.

Thanks in advance.

nate

spikefader
05-04-2004, 01:42 AM
sorry folks. been hectic, but will try to answer a few tomorrow.

scifos
05-04-2004, 11:54 AM
sorry folks. been hectic, but will try to answer a few tomorrow.

Dude, no problem. You've been awesome and havve answerd tons of questions quickly. Go ahead and take a break.

Websman
05-04-2004, 05:39 PM
sorry folks. been hectic, but will try to answer a few tomorrow.

Spike,
I'm suprised you don't charge for your great advice. I just want to let you know that you are greatly appreciated and I hope none of us ever takes you for granted.

:wink:

noshadyldy
05-04-2004, 05:54 PM
Yes, Spike and others like him on this board are a great asset to many of us. However, care needs to be taken not to choke the geese that lay the golden eggs.

IIC
05-07-2004, 11:45 PM
Spike...Where the HECK are you???...I really enjoy reading your posts and I especially like those charts/comments...Very enlightening IMO...Hope all is well, Best...IIC

spikefader
05-08-2004, 12:06 PM
Spike...Where the HECK are you???...I really enjoy reading your posts and I especially like those charts/comments...Very enlightening IMO...Hope all is well, Best...IIC
:D Hey IIC. Apologies for the dissappearing act. Last week was pure madness and didn't have much free time. This weekend is the same, so I'll be back into the swing on Monday. Great weekends all!

spikefader
05-08-2004, 12:15 PM
ELN update
Channels say short soon, and could be a bull flag with 5th wave up completion. Remember the gap!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_update.jpg

noshadyldy
05-09-2004, 09:25 AM
From: carl_xxxxx May 7 2004 8:03PM
Title: Who would ever thunk? (Long Recommendation)

Who would ever thunk? Gold is at the 500MA, but the 400MA has not crossed below it. Is this a buy or what? Gold is where we want it to be. RSI shows oversold. MACD to me is silly but confirms. No dead crossings, beautiful set up. Regardless what you have heard entry into gold related stocks is now! God! This is Great, or what. Recommending ABER, GFI, GLG PAAS, and SSRI. Is this not like shooting ducks in a barrel? OMG. Has making money been so easy. Setting stop at 12% under current price. Recommending: ABER, GFI, GLG, PAAS, and SSRI. Just one e-mail. Thank You.

Spike, the above was taken from the clearstation boards. Is this fellow on to something (or just ON something)?

Thanks for any input.

Margie

spikefader
05-09-2004, 10:34 AM
Spike.
What would be your pick among Mr. Market's top5 based on chart study: cach, mpx, deck, hubg, nutr. cach is definately not my pick a this time based on its action today. I like nutr, but would like to wait to see how it acts around 50MA. Thanks.
Yaoyao
My quick thoughts: I like MPX the most. Not the best bunch to pick from really. I'd look for better charts. NUTR long entry previously mentioned in this thread still has a chance, but chart weakening.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CACH.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MPX.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DECK.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HUBG.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_update2.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 11:29 AM
ELN update
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 11:43 AM
There are better entries for a long down the road. That's is a fact.http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_update2.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 11:53 AM
Hey Spike,
I only call you when i need you :)
I am thinking of a taking a position on JMAR (a nano play) at $2 or below. it's currently at 2.18. it seems like the last time it hit $2.00 it popped to $3.50 in the next month and has begun a trend down again from that level. what does the chart say about taking a long position at $2 or below (or do you think it will even get to $2)?
as always thank you for your charting guruness!
sorry for the delay Funda!
Here's what I see.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/JMAR.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 11:58 AM
Spike you are the man!

Any thoughts on CAG?

Kind of a boring company, but they have been running lately! Thanks for the help man.
Looking for long today - but cautious with it. Wait for intraday pattern
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CAG.jpg
might want 28.40
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CAG_daily_bbands.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:02 PM
Spike,
Can to offer your thoughts on MMs recent top 5?
Finally got around to it on the w/e. sorry for delay - see a few posts back.

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:15 PM
Spike,
What do you think of the market direction and do you trade in poor market conditions? I've already asked Mr Market for his thoughts on this, but I value your thoughts as well.
I am still on the lookout for good buying opportunities, but I will scrutinize them much more carefully.
Live long and prosper, oh great Chartmaster.
Hey Websman.
Thoughts on current market direction. I am no longer bullish on market. I now have short bias. Whoever asked me the other day about a possible entry for NDX, I sure hope you got in around that 1500 area I recommended - cuz it never broke the neckline for the stop out. That's why they say sell at resistence. The neckline was resistence....I was anticipating a break of the neckline since I had signals saying bullish. Ces la vis. That's why a tight stop on the qqq long I took got me out with not pain. Had I held it, look where I'd be now. THIS is why stops are essential. It's a reasonable point to admit you were wrong, take your medicine and walk away with plenty of time to look for another gem. You know....those gems laying in loose soil rather than the ones buried deep under ground.
Anyway, to answer your question, yes, I trade in all market conditions. Conditions are only 'poor' if you have one stance on the market. If you're bullish, then recently, market has been poor....but it's been rich for the bears. This is why I like to keep an open mind on the market, and switch suits (bear/bull) where necessary. Buy and holders have to pick the times they trade, and that could mean many months without taking a position.
As far as roadmap for short term, it seems the market is looking for a correction since the bullish move since Oct '02. maybe a 38.2 or 50 fib - would take NDX 1200 to 1260ish. Only time will tell.
My suggestion for bulls is if you take a long, then use tight stops even more than you normally would. If you are currently long, seriously consider where your stop is - and if you don't have one, seriously consider hedging with otm puts or leaps. Or maybe throw some funds into silver mining stocks. Silver maybe DB on daily after panic selloff recently. Some bullflags out there today. Could be overdue trendchange for precious metals.
If you're going to be adding to longs on the way down, then really try to add at significant points of support. Trade like a vulcan! tm :D :D

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:22 PM
Spike,
Thank you for taking the time to help me. You are great!
You're welcome bigheart. Anytime!

New perspective TASR.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TASR_update.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:38 PM
Hi Spike, Thanks for your responses in the past. My question again is PRFT. It just dropped about 8% today as of 2:40 EST. I'm looking to double up and am curious of what is a good entry point at this time.

Thanks in advance.

nate
Doesn't look good if 3.50 doesn't hold. I'd add at dark blue channel. It may test 2.50ish, so hold out until there.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/PRFT_add.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:51 PM
sorry folks. been hectic, but will try to answer a few tomorrow.
Spike,
I'm suprised you don't charge for your great advice. I just want to let you know that you are greatly appreciated and I hope none of us ever takes you for granted.
:wink:
Thanks webs. Maybe one day I'll charge for one-on-one mentoring should anyone ever be interested in it and suggest it to me, but I'm not selling anything here. All of this stuff in the thread is purely for the benefit of folks out there who haven't found their feet yet and to maybe help people avoid becoming bagholders. If I can help someone out then I'm blessed for it. I guess the purpose of posting at all is not for glory and hype, but to convey the message that there is absolutely a way to be profitable, provided one accepts that one of the ingredients of success is admitting failure at some point - and not only recognizing that failure is okay, but acting despite what emotion tells you to do. By acting, I mean entering a stop and letting your position be taken out and biting the bullet.

No doubt it's tough to time the market. But putting in the time and being prepared to change behavior can lead to rewards. There are better traders out there than me, I'm sure. And if I can just keep focussed and be disciplined and unemotional, then that's personal success in my books.

spikefader
05-10-2004, 12:58 PM
Yes, Spike and others like him on this board are a great asset to many of us. However, care needs to be taken not to choke the geese that lay the golden eggs.
:lol: that's a good one.

But actually, anyone can throw questions on the board. I'll get to each one. Usually, it'll be a fast response...but sometimes I'll be gone and it'll be slow.

I think by now, people following the thread have enough to throw up a free stockcharts annotation chart and do some simple channels, and see where their stock is relative to my usual channel/fib/waves thoughts.
In fact, it would be great to see a few people posting annotated charts the way I do for the exceptionally good looking stocks. But make sure it's a gem ready and ripe for the picking. Otherwise the thread may get out of hand with charts all over the place. Let's try a few anyway if people want. And if not, I'll just throw mine up there.

spikefader
05-10-2004, 01:04 PM
CAH long $28.88 - ||EDIT that's supposed to rad CAG. And LOD of yesterday broken, so the position stops out for less than a quarter pain||
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CAG_intraday.jpg

spikefader
05-10-2004, 01:21 PM
From: carl_xxxxx May 7 2004 8:03PM
Title: Who would ever thunk? (Long Recommendation)

Spike, the above was taken from the clearstation boards. Is this fellow on to something (or just ON something)?

Thanks for any input.

Margie
Hey Margie.
Well, spot on rec that was. The gap down today has been bought. Silver and Gold have potential DBs. Some gaps up higher too, so I say we're going to see another bullish run up in precious metals. As mentioned earlier, some bull flags in mining companies, with very strong action and nice volume. I think we have a trend change here for them.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/Silver_DB.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/Gold_DB.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SSRI_bullflag_intraday.jpg

noshadyldy
05-10-2004, 02:44 PM
Thanks Spike. I'm hoping to recover some recent losses by capturing a run in the PMs. Would hate to have to go back to my night job. I hear the girl that took over my corner is rough :evil: and probably won't give it back without a fight. :shock: So you see, you've saved me. :D

(please... don't anyone take that seriously :wink:


Margie

MEA_1956
05-11-2004, 01:15 AM
Whats wrong with saying [b]I'ved Been Spiked.....[b]

noshadyldy
05-11-2004, 07:18 AM
That's cute, MEA. Yes, I've been spiked, quite nicely too, I might add. :wink:
(now watch, we'll one day find out that spike is a 12 year old genius and we've corrupted him.) :shock:



Margie

"after much soul searching, introspection and struggle for personal and spiritual evolution, I have come to the conclusion that I am still confused.
BUT, I believe that I am now confused on a much higher level and about more important things."

spikefader
05-11-2004, 11:23 AM
[quote="noshadyldy"]That's cute, MEA. Yes, I've been spiked, quite nicely too, I might add. :wink:
(now watch, we'll one day find out that spike is a 12 year old genius and we've corrupted him.) :shock:
quote] :D :shock:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/kid.jpg

spikefader
05-11-2004, 11:25 AM
CAG not a gem and closed this a.m for less than a quarter pain.

spikefader
05-11-2004, 11:43 AM
NUTR update:
Channels not indicating a reason to exit the long from 20. Stops should be tucked under 20.53.

spikefader
05-11-2004, 11:55 AM
QQQ update - channels say down. I also see a bearish SHS in there too. Looking for a neckline break in the next few weeks.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_May_11.jpg

IamOrion
05-11-2004, 05:38 PM
Spike,
If its not to much trouble, was wondering if I could get your analysis of OSTK. I currently have a short position. Seems as if it has run out of steam and has further to fall.

Thanks,
Orion :D

spikefader
05-11-2004, 06:54 PM
Spike,
If its not to much trouble, was wondering if I could get your analysis of OSTK. I currently have a short position. Seems as if it has run out of steam and has further to fall.
Thanks,
Orion :D
Hey Orion,
Nice short candidate. The neckline broken with volume. Where did you catch it from?
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OSTK.jpg

IamOrion
05-11-2004, 07:20 PM
I have had it on my short list for awhile and I was gonna short it on Friday of last week, seeing how the market was acting. I caught it premarket on Monday AM at 35.80. I covered some of my position at 30.30. Any other thoughts on where it might be going. I think it is headed further south. They are offering another 1.5 mil. shares in a sec. offering. Seems way overvalued even at 33.41.

IamOrion
05-11-2004, 07:25 PM
What is the blue channel support zone? Is it the lower blue line? Also, what is the signifigance of the zero line in the MACD indicator? I think the instituions may be pulling out of this thing.

IamOrion
05-11-2004, 08:27 PM
and thank you very much for your fast chart response. It is very much apprieciated.

Orion

spikefader
05-11-2004, 08:33 PM
I have had it on my short list for awhile and I was gonna short it on Friday of last week, seeing how the market was acting. I caught it premarket on Monday AM at 35.80. I covered some of my position at 30.30. Any other thoughts on where it might be going. I think it is headed further south. They are offering another 1.5 mil. shares in a sec. offering. Seems way overvalued even at 33.41.
Nice trade. I'd be looking at any of the blue channels to act as support. How it reacts at that point will give some indication on whether it's headed lower.

spikefader
05-11-2004, 08:36 PM
What is the blue channel support zone? Is it the lower blue line? Also, what is the signifigance of the zero line in the MACD indicator? I think the instituions may be pulling out of this thing.Any of the blue lines - that's why I worded it zone.

Zero line for indicators is viewed by many to be a point of significance. You will often see zero line rejects, which are bounces off the zero line. Nice moves often follow that. Same with a clear cross of the zero line - many take that as a reason to exit a trade. Might be CCI, MACD, RSI. It's just something to throw in as another reason to watch for movement. I don't trade a zero line cross or bounce by itself, just something to add to the overall picture.

yaoyao
05-12-2004, 12:32 AM
Spike.

What's your opinion on APPX? By looking at volume by price chart, the price range now should be a strong support. Do you think it's a good long entry point? Thanks.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-12-2004, 01:23 AM
Spike.

What's your opinion on APPX? By looking at volume by price chart, the price range now should be a strong support. Do you think it's a good long entry point? Thanks.

Yaoyao
I'm watching it for the perfect entry long. I will wait for a bullish channel break or channel turn up first. Then I'll aim to time the entry on a pullback to a channel, and make sure intraday there is a valid reason to take it. I guess you could call it a 3-step process. First, the channel direction change signal, second is the channel entry zone at the lower channel, third is the intraday reason to take the trade and pull the trigger. Better make that a 4-step process: the 4th step is setting stop and taking the Dr's medicine should it turn out to be sick.

So to answer your question (good long entry point), I say 'not yet', there is still reason to wait. If I happen to forget about it, and you see the things that you know I look for, give me a yell, because this looks like a pretty good stock to trade, action-wise.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/APPX.jpg

IamOrion
05-12-2004, 03:00 AM
Spike,

What is an SHS formation and what does it mean? What is its signifigance? Can you give any classic examples. Just trying to learn and get some insight.... Thanks for the exp. about the zero line.

Thanks,

Orion

yaoyao
05-12-2004, 10:00 AM
Spike,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I have a couple of questions about the 3-step process. How do you determine the channel break (reliably)? Do you think the step 2 will surely occur?

Thanks

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-12-2004, 10:47 AM
GT update:
ForeverInvesting raised GT on page 4 of this thread http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=456&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start =45

Just noticed there was a long entry the other day, and if you're bullish on the stock, current price of 8.00ish is a valid entry point, based on things I look at. Currently at intraday Support 1, and at bullflag support from 2 days ago.
The one problem I see with it is the SHS target is under the gap and it could be looking for a gap fill, then SHS target hit. I'd recommend stop at 7.96 which is least amount of pain possible.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GT_daily.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GT_intraday1.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GT_intraday2.jpg

spikefader
05-12-2004, 12:23 PM
If you're into precious metals. CDE has valid long entry right here. Grabbed some myself
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_long_at_support.jpg

yaoyao
05-12-2004, 12:43 PM
Thanks. I'm in too. Do you usually set stop for these long positions? If so, what's the good stop price.

spikefader
05-12-2004, 12:55 PM
Thanks. I'm in too. Do you usually set stop for these long positions? If so, what's the good stop price.
Sorry, should have specified. Yes, always use stops. I think I'll give this one a little wiggle room and make it 4.10. That's under the inverted left shoulder. If it hits 4.10, that makes the SHS invalid.

spikefader
05-12-2004, 12:59 PM
Spike,

What is an SHS formation and what does it mean? What is its signifigance? Can you give any classic examples. Just trying to learn and get some insight.... Thanks for the exp. about the zero line.

Thanks,

Orion
There are some good examples earlier in the thread. Check out http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/headShouldersBottom.html

spikefader
05-12-2004, 01:05 PM
Spike,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I have a couple of questions about the 3-step process. How do you determine the channel break (reliably)? Do you think the step 2 will surely occur?

Thanks

Yaoyao
You're welcome. I take a channel break, as price hitting a channel and causing it to expand suddenly. Often price will hit the channel and bounce without expanding it. That's not a break. If the price hits the channel and expands it, that's a channel break in my book. Regression channels are different to general channel trend lines. Readers should take particular notice of this. A fixed line channel is something I don't pay as much attention to as a regression channel, that positions itself differently. Check out annotated charts at stockcharts.com and draw a few and you'll see how they move, and look at how that expand.

Regarding step 2, no, there is no guarantee that it will take place. If it doesn't and I miss a move, so be it. The step 2 is the haggling part of the equation. You're trying to buy a bargain - a retracement to the channel. This is an edge, and to trade without that edge would be unwise.

spikefader
05-12-2004, 02:13 PM
LRCX short (missed it, but a good example of what I'm looking for) As to the stop.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LRCX_bearish.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LRCX_intraday_entry.jpg

Bullshooter
05-12-2004, 07:47 PM
Spikefader,

Thanks for your recommendation to research TA on Stockcharts.com. I joined this service and have been studying various technical indicators.

I wondered if you would share how you go about copying and posting a chart from stockcharts into the body of a post?

Thanks,

Bullshooter

spikefader
05-13-2004, 10:07 AM
AACE for those with this look :shock: on their faces.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/AACE_a_reason_to_sell.jpg
I note a SHS there too!

spikefader
05-13-2004, 10:14 AM
Spikefader,
Thanks for your recommendation to research TA on Stockcharts.com. I joined this service and have been studying various technical indicators.
I wondered if you would share how you go about copying and posting a chart from stockcharts into the body of a post?
Thanks,
Bullshooter
Good for you!
OK, to post a pic:
When you reply you type your comments. Then click the 'Img' button paste the link to your picture then click Img again. That's it.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/posting_a_picture.jpg

yaoyao
05-13-2004, 12:31 PM
Spike,

How do you determine your exit point? I know you always use stops, but how you decide when to take profit? Do you completely rely on your charts, or use some percentage rules like Mr. Market? Also, how do you determine the channel turn? How long does it take to make the turn?

Really appreciate your help.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-13-2004, 01:30 PM
Spike,
How do you determine your exit point? I know you always use stops, but how you decide when to take profit? Do you completely rely on your charts, or use some percentage rules like Mr. Market? Also, how do you determine the channel turn? How long does it take to make the turn?
Really appreciate your help.
Yaoyao
Let 'em run as long as possible and exit on a reverse signal or some other significant level, such as 5 wave completion or a heavy point of resistance I see such as an upper channel line. I don't use percentage targets. Having said that, sometimes I will close a trade at intraday resistence and then reenter at a support level, especially after an unusually fast move that is likely to retrace some.

As to the channel turn, look at the examples in the thread and you'll get the idea of where I take the channels from. I click and drag the channel. If it's a channel from a low and when I drag it, it turns down, that's the bearish turn. If it's a channel from a high point and it turns up, that's the bullish channel turn. Get it? As to how long it takes to make the turn, it'll be up one day, and then all of a sudden, due to action on one day it might turn down. You'll see channels move from being upward, to levelling off, to turning over. It only takes 1 day for a flat channel to turn down. Know what I mean?

yaoyao
05-13-2004, 06:11 PM
Thanks, Spike. It seems like the channel trends also depend on the time frame you use. Some good stocks will drop a lot for a day but shoot up the next day and forward. That would be channel trend changes involved.

What do you think about CDE now? SHS might become invalid if the price keeps dropping.[/quote][/list]

Websman
05-13-2004, 08:22 PM
Greetings Spike,

Have you noticed the great earnings report on DHB. It's getting a lot of attention, but I've held off so far. Everyone thought it was going straight up after the earnings announcement, but my newly trained Vulcan eye knew better. It actually dropped. Now it's climbing again, with some volume. I happen to think it will tank, once more, before a run up happens.
Spike, I'm getting better at chart reading but I still could use your expert advice....Tell me...am I right about this stock, or...am I wrong?

spikefader
05-13-2004, 08:45 PM
Thanks, Spike. It seems like the channel trends also depend on the time frame you use. Some good stocks will drop a lot for a day but shoot up the next day and forward. That would be channel trend changes involved.
What do you think about CDE now? SHS might become invalid if the price keeps dropping.
The channels will depend on where you take it from, but should be pretty similar between time frames. The shorter the time frame, the closer the view, so it might just look different. It's good to sometimes zoom out to longer time frames to get an idea of the bigger picture.

CDE - frustrating. My last two trades of it haven't given me that perfect entry I like, but I expect a good number of failed setups - it's part of the game. I really took the trade off that 20 day chart I posted. The closing hourly candle above the bollinger band caught my interest - an indication that prices have a potential to go higher. Add to that the daily bounce off that support area, and I had enough reason to take the entry as valid. But it's not reacted well, and could be looking to fill more volume on the daily at lower prices. In hindsight, it would have been more prudent to wait for a channel entry day on the daily. This chart shows a channel turn down today, so I'll exit at intraday resistence tomorrow and would recommend you do the same. There will be better entries for it.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_May_13_zoom.jpg

spikefader
05-13-2004, 08:57 PM
Greetings Spike,

Have you noticed the great earnings report on DHB. It's getting a lot of attention, but I've held off so far. Everyone thought it was going straight up after the earnings announcement, but my newly trained Vulcan eye knew better. It actually dropped. Now it's climbing again, with some volume. I happen to think it will tank, once more, before a run up happens.
Spike, I'm getting better at chart reading but I still could use your expert advice....Tell me...am I right about this stock, or...am I wrong?
Red channel turn up has the long zone in light blue. Interesting action in this stock - and good example of a technical bounce. I have long bias, but haggle over price and look for 8.50ish WITH an intraday reason to enter.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_May_13.jpg

nkjoe
05-14-2004, 08:55 AM
Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning

nkjoe
05-14-2004, 08:55 AM
Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning

spikefader
05-14-2004, 10:44 AM
Spike
I am still new to reading charts and even newer to some of your terminology. Could you explain the red channel and long zone for me. It's hard to tell if you like this stock for further advances beyond $10 or not. Sorry for the ignorance, still learning
Sure.
I drew a channel from the candle with a high of 10.65. Because it's from a high, the channel would normally start by angling downwards, indicating a bearish channel, which it did for the next 2 days. But on the 3rd day (2 days ago) the channel turned up. That action is a bullish signal in my books, which is why I'm saying 'long zone'. By that, I mean that I am bullish on the stock, with interest it entering if it comes back to the lower light blue channel. Supporting reasons for bullishness are the good bounce off volume by price support, satisfaction of the SHS target, and penetration of volume by price resistence just under 10.00. So yes, I see higher prices for it at the moment. BUT - be cautious with it, since you've got a SHS / triple top on the daily. I will wait for return to the light blue channel and ALSO look at an intraday pattern to enter (such as inverted SHS or double bottom). Hope that clarifies it for you.

yaoyao
05-14-2004, 11:57 AM
Spike,

I sold CDE at 4.27 before a meeting (a little too soon, it seems to become support now). PM stocks are doing pretty well today. I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-14-2004, 12:14 PM
Spike,

I sold CDE at 4.27 before a meeting (a little too soon, it seems to become support now). PM stocks are doing pretty well today. I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?

Thanks.

Yaoyao
Patience grasshopper. I'm waiting or R1 to be tested, which is where I've got my sell order.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/cde_intra.jpg

spikefader
05-14-2004, 12:17 PM
Spike,
I also hold wht. What's your opinion on that?
Thanks.
Yaoyao
Channels say bullish, I recommend you hold that with stop around 2.43ish.

spikefader
05-14-2004, 02:51 PM
Gonna fade the spike

Short ELN 21.95 - stop over HOD

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_daily.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_intraday_short.jpg

spikefader
05-14-2004, 03:08 PM
Cover for a dime's worth of pain. Next.

yaoyao
05-14-2004, 03:29 PM
Thanks, Spike. I'm still new to the game. It's a good learning experience for me. The problem is that I have a daily job, and couldnt sit in front of a computer all the time. Intraday play is almost impossible for me. What i'm doing now is to study charts after work, and determine what my next step is. Is there any better strategy? Thanks.

spikefader
05-14-2004, 03:33 PM
ELN looking for another entry short
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_15min.jpghttp://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_daily2.jpg
but the bullflag is something to realize can be very powerful. Could well get a bullish channel break, in which case, I'm back on the Field of Dreams Team teamhttp://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_bullflag.jpg

spikefader
05-14-2004, 03:36 PM
Thanks, Spike. I'm still new to the game. It's a good learning experience for me. The problem is that I have a daily job, and couldnt sit in front of a computer all the time. Intraday play is almost impossible for me. What i'm doing now is to study charts after work, and determine what my next step is. Is there any better strategy? Thanks.
Nope, with a day job that's what you need to do - make your plan and stick with it. You just miss out on the opportunity for the absolutely best entries and therefore, the least risk. You just need to use wider stops is all. Have your plan, and give it some reasonable wiggle room and see what the market gives you.

spikefader
05-14-2004, 04:06 PM
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_cover.jpg

Websman
05-14-2004, 04:53 PM
Alright, OFG is getting hammered still. I keep thinking it'll bottom out, but I'm not so sure anymore. In fact, I'm thinking that it's headed back to around $22. At least I didn't take a large position, but I do have a small loss and I'm thinking of bailing out Monday.

Any Thoughts Spike or anyone else? I'm totally lost on this one.

:roll:

spikefader
05-14-2004, 05:29 PM
Alright, OFG is getting hammered still. I keep thinking it'll bottom out, but I'm not so sure anymore. In fact, I'm thinking that it's headed back to around $22. At least I didn't take a large position, but I do have a small loss and I'm thinking of bailing out Monday.

Any Thoughts Spike or anyone else? I'm totally lost on this one.

:roll:
I'm real sorry for your pain Webs. If you've got no reason to stay in, then get out. Like that old classic song goes,
"You've got to know when to hold 'em,
know when to fold 'em,
know when to walk away,
and know when to run".

The time to run was when it failed at 30.00 and then this setup failed http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_yet_another_long_entry.jpg
Now had you taken your pain/medicine at that logical point, then you'd have the funds to throw into good setups, instead of hoping for a recovery. Hope kills traders.
Peace man.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_hammering.jpg

Websman
05-14-2004, 05:48 PM
Thanks Spike!

Your analysis is appreciated once again.
I should have listened the first time, but I only bought 65 shares, so I'll be OK and I did learn a very important lesson.
I really was using OFG as a test trade and I failed the test miserably.

Oh well, life goes on. I think I'll take the boat out this weekend and catch a few Red Snapper and Grouper, That always clears my mind.

New-born baby
05-14-2004, 06:56 PM
Spike :shock:

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it? :cry: Incredibly, I sat in front of the screen this morning and could not pull the trigger. I put in a couple of limit orders that they smoked past before I could get 'em filled. :shock: It must have been some kind of institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart driving the market higher . . . or maybe he's reading this thread and decided he'd show us a thing or two.

In any case, I think you should have held your short. It'll be back down enough to cover Monday morning. But I'm not betting it is going to stay down there. Somebody with an institutional-sized wallet must have decided that the drugs are going to be FDA approved.

I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?

Websman
05-14-2004, 07:56 PM
Spike :shock:

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it? :cry:
I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?

Hmm... :shock: sounds like you and I are having the same kind of luck New-born. I did the same thing with SGMS a week ago.

yaoyao
05-15-2004, 09:58 AM
Spike,

What do you think about DRAX now. It looks like a SHS bottom to me. I owned this stock for several months. It was a big lesson to me. I let 50% profit get away and sold it for a small loss. I still like the stock, and would like to enter it at a good price. Thanks.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-15-2004, 12:51 PM
Spike,

What do you think about DRAX now. It looks like a SHS bottom to me. I owned this stock for several months. It was a big lesson to me. I let 50% profit get away and sold it for a small loss. I still like the stock, and would like to enter it at a good price. Thanks.

Yaoyao
My earlier chart is http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DRAX.jpg
which was waiting for that lower channel entry. There was a second long entry on it since that channel entry too, but would have been closed. The first channel entry would still have you long.
Yes, there appears to be the formation of a SHS. I'd maybe consider a long entry if the neckline breaks, but there are better setups out there.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DRAX2.jpg

spikefader
05-15-2004, 01:03 PM
Spike :shock:

Yeah, I sold 2k ELN yesterday for 19.37 @ share. Seems like a bargain, doesn't it? :cry: Incredibly, I sat in front of the screen this morning and could not pull the trigger. I put in a couple of limit orders that they smoked past before I could get 'em filled. :shock: It must have been some kind of institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart driving the market higher . . . or maybe he's reading this thread and decided he'd show us a thing or two.

In any case, I think you should have held your short. It'll be back down enough to cover Monday morning. But I'm not betting it is going to stay down there. Somebody with an institutional-sized wallet must have decided that the drugs are going to be FDA approved.

I'm going to try to collect my nerve and buy on the dip again Monday. How about you?
So are you saying you're short from 19.37 and didn't cover? Or that you were long and closed it there? If it's the first, we need to talk! :shock: :lol:
Actually, the suggestion that it was an institutional buyer who couldn't read a chart, well, as I pointed out over at http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=270&start=75&sid=556f39cdae14b3f22 bd6addea46add06 there was a valid long setup, based on the inverted SHS, and intraday action was classic bullflag action. So maybe they can read a chart.
Anyway, I'll consider another short entry based on Monday's action. There might be a strong run up in the morning, which breaks out of my channel and gives a stage 1 long signal. There might be a double top or SHS before that happens, in which case I'll short it. Either way, trade 'em as you see 'em, and look for perfect entries 8)

New-born baby
05-15-2004, 03:52 PM
Spike :shock:

I was long on ELN at 19.37 and closed it out Thursday morning. I was a little nervous about how that conference call might turn out, and thought I'd not take the risk of sour grapes ruining my day.

What is the best chart reading textbook that you might recommend to us neophytes out there? I'd like to submit some information for your consideration, but I'd first want to be up to snuff before I offer a suggestion.

Do you consider the Directional Movement Index when you think about buying a stock?

spikefader
05-15-2004, 05:27 PM
Spike :shock:

I was long on ELN at 19.37 and closed it out Thursday morning. I was a little nervous about how that conference call might turn out, and thought I'd not take the risk of sour grapes ruining my day.

What is the best chart reading textbook that you might recommend to us neophytes out there? I'd like to submit some information for your consideration, but I'd first want to be up to snuff before I offer a suggestion.

Do you consider the Directional Movement Index when you think about buying a stock?
Whew! :D

People have asked for a reference to a good chart textbook several times in the thread, but unfortunately I can't recommend one to you. All the stuff I've learnt has been through on-line research. Google is your friend :D

No, I don't ever look at DMI index, but I know about it and it is an interesting indicator.

spikefader
05-15-2004, 05:32 PM
BEL bullish
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_bullish.jpg

yaoyao
05-15-2004, 10:23 PM
Spike,

Could you look at SWIR's chart? Does it look like a double bottom to you? I'm still trying to learn the charts.

Thanks

Yaoyao

yaoyao
05-15-2004, 10:54 PM
Spike,

Just want to say that I really really appreciate your time and effort to answer each of my questions. I feel so lucky to find this site and this thread. It makes my learning much faster and more efficient. Thanks.

Ying

spikefader
05-16-2004, 01:16 AM
Spike,
Could you look at SWIR's chart? Does it look like a double bottom to you? I'm still trying to learn the charts.
Thanks
Yaoyao
Sure. Yep, it's a double bottom.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SWIR.jpg

Spike,
Just want to say that I really really appreciate your time and effort to answer each of my questions. I feel so lucky to find this site and this thread. It makes my learning much faster and more efficient. Thanks.
Ying
You're welcome. Glad you're getting something out of the thread.

IIC
05-16-2004, 04:56 PM
Hey Spike...Let me say that I really appreciate your charts and analyses too!!!

Any thoughts on RELV???

http://trimurl.com/2M

spikefader
05-16-2004, 09:54 PM
Hey Spike...Let me say that I really appreciate your charts and analyses too!!!
Any thoughts on RELV???
http://trimurl.com/2M
Thanks IIC, appreciate the feedback.
Here's what I'm seeing with RELV. Omitted to put FIB on there, but there's a nice bounce off the 50% retrace of the move from 5.05 to 11.89. A reasonable projection target is 16.00, which fits well with the size of the channel.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV.jpg

yaoyao
05-16-2004, 11:11 PM
Spike,

How would you know that a double bottom would not turn into a trible bottom? In other words, how to determine entry point when you see a double bottom formation? It looks like that MAGS is heading the 3rd bottom. Will SWIR do the same?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-17-2004, 10:00 AM
Spike,

How would you know that a double bottom would not turn into a trible bottom? In other words, how to determine entry point when you see a double bottom formation? It looks like that MAGS is heading the 3rd bottom. Will SWIR do the same?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

You wouldn't KNOW. That's why it's called speculation. You can only prepare for the two possible outcomes and act accordingly. There are no guarantees in the stock market. There are plenty of potential double bottoms that turn out triple bottoms/complete failure at support, simply because support disappeared. They only become double bottoms when there are buyers to make it so. You can never know for sure whether there WILL be buyers. But a good point of entry for anticipating a possible DB is at a good support level, whether that be a channel line, reg channel, FIB, vol by price, 20 day hourly Bband, intraday S1 or S2 etc. Then all you can do is wait and see if support comes. If it doesn't, the DB will fail, and you will exit the trade and move on.

MAGS: maybe. SWIR: perhaps. The answers are always going to be the same. Chart reading will never give you the certainty many people want. Chart reading will only give you an 'edge', nothing more. Use the edge to plan your reaction to what the market does. That's the only thing you can control: yourself.

spikefader
05-17-2004, 10:55 AM
QQQ
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_May17.jpg

carribean_mike
05-17-2004, 02:59 PM
Thanks for the update on the Qs. Sub- 30 is going to hurt unless you are on the right side. I am starting to get more comfortable on the short side, so we are probably near the bottom.

Any thoughts on SMH?

IamOrion
05-17-2004, 09:34 PM
Spike

Check out ESMC when you get a chance for a short, got in today after being long. Went long for about .75 sold today and went short at 19.10. The chart looked like it could have went either way, I thought it would go higher, I was wrong and the then the chart started to deteriorate and I went short. Any thoughts would be nice.

Thanks,

Orion

IIC
05-17-2004, 09:44 PM
Spike

Check out ESMC when you get a chance for a short, got in today after being long. Went long for about .75 sold today and went short at 19.10. The chart looked like it could have went either way, I thought it would go higher, I was wrong and the then the chart started to deteriorate and I went short. Any thoughts would be nice.

Thanks,

Orion

I know you are looking for Spike's response...But let me throw something in here...At the close Friday, ESMC had a Bullish MACD crossover...Of course that went down the drain today on news http://trimurl.com/3C

How about MATK?...news killed that one today too.(Fire)

IamOrion
05-17-2004, 10:24 PM
It never crossed over on the chart I was looking at, and it is about to crossover to the downside of the zweo line. It also has a CCI sell signal on my chart. What parameters do you use for your MACD? Not to mention it was IBDs #1 for weeks on end. MATK looks good as well, its a little to expensive for me on a per share basis right now. Thanks for the heads up.


Orion

IIC
05-17-2004, 11:34 PM
It never crossed over on the chart I was looking at, and it is about to crossover to the downside of the zweo line. It also has a CCI sell signal on my chart. What parameters do you use for your MACD? Not to mention it was IBDs #1 for weeks on end. MATK looks good as well, its a little to expensive for me on a per share basis right now. Thanks for the heads up.


Orion

I saw the crossover on Stockcharts over the weekend...it was even on their scan list.

evilarya
05-18-2004, 11:00 PM
Hey spike any thoughts on GGI, thanks in advance

yaoyao
05-19-2004, 12:19 AM
Spike,

How do you figure out intraday support (s1, s2) and resistance (r1,r2)? Could you project these from stock movements for the previous days?

also, any thoughts on IPIX?

Thanks.

Yaoyao

spikefader
05-19-2004, 11:34 AM
Thanks for the update on the Qs. Sub- 30 is going to hurt unless you are on the right side. I am starting to get more comfortable on the short side, so we are probably near the bottom.

Any thoughts on SMH?
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SMH2.jpg

spikefader
05-19-2004, 11:42 AM
Spike

Check out ESMC when you get a chance for a short, got in today after being long. Went long for about .75 sold today and went short at 19.10. The chart looked like it could have went either way, I thought it would go higher, I was wrong and the then the chart started to deteriorate and I went short. Any thoughts would be nice.

Thanks,

Orion
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ESMC_2.jpg

spikefader
05-19-2004, 11:47 AM
Hey spike any thoughts on GGI, thanks in advance
Don't know if you saw this earlier chart I posted, warning of bearishness.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GGI_update.jpg
Here are today's thoughts:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GGI_update_3.jpg

spikefader
05-19-2004, 11:53 AM
Spike,

How do you figure out intraday support (s1, s2) and resistance (r1,r2)? Could you project these from stock movements for the previous days?

also, any thoughts on IPIX?

Thanks.

Yaoyao
S1, S2, R1, R2, Pivot, are all automatically projected and drawn by my charting (quotetracker), so I don't have to calculate them. Yes, they are projections based on previous days price action.

IPIX:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/IPIX_cover.jpg would have been a nice hold :D

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/IPIX_update.jpg

evilarya
05-20-2004, 11:47 AM
Hey spike oh wise one, even though there is uncertainty with NT what do the charts say about it.

spikefader
05-20-2004, 01:36 PM
Hey spike oh wise one, even though there is uncertainty with NT what do the charts say about it.
Not lookin' good.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NT.jpg

New-born baby
05-20-2004, 03:33 PM
Spike :shock:

You can't possibly mean it when you say it doesn't look good for NT, can you? "Say it ain't so, Joe. Say it ain't so". This is one of the big recommends of Jim Cramer--you know, the one you pay for him to tell you what he buys and sells. :twisted: He really pushed NT in March, 2004. (His other picks for March, 2004 included Halyburton and El Paso. Just think of it: three stock picks in one week where the CEO and the CFO of each could draw unemployment together). He also pushed CHTR that week (and several weeks thereafter).

Here's good advice you won't have to pay for: don't take Jim Cramer's advice. My only regret is that the price is so low, you can't sell NT short anymore.

spikefader
05-20-2004, 03:39 PM
My only regret is that the price is so low, you can't sell NT short anymore.
Well I've got good news for you. You can still short NT - at least interactivebrokers.com has it on the list of shortable stocks. I've shorted sub-$5 stocks many times. No reason NT should be excluded :D

Websman
05-20-2004, 04:51 PM
Wassup Spike!
Check out TZOO. :shock: I hate it when I miss a move like that, but now that I have become an unemotional, Vulcan trader, I am sitting and watching the interesting action in this stock.
Would this be a high tight flag formation? If so it should fall just as hard as it went up. It seems highly illogical to me that it would just keep climbing. It's a vulcan shame to miss a move like this. :roll:

Live long and prosper Spike.

IamOrion
05-20-2004, 08:51 PM
Hey spike that ESMC short worked out pretty well for me, thanks for taking the time to look at it for me. Any thoughts on a Long Pos. in CNLG.

Thanks again

IamOrion
05-20-2004, 08:53 PM
Looking for an entry around 4.80-5.00 range...

IamOrion
05-20-2004, 09:01 PM
Sorry spike, scratch CNLG. Want no part of it long or short.

Thanks

spikefader
05-20-2004, 10:25 PM
Wassup Spike!
Check out TZOO. :shock: I hate it when I miss a move like that, but now that I have become an unemotional, Vulcan trader, I am sitting and watching the interesting action in this stock.
Would this be a high tight flag formation? If so it should fall just as hard as it went up. It seems highly illogical to me that it would just keep climbing. It's a vulcan shame to miss a move like this. :roll:
Live long and prosper Spike.
Fat lady hasn't warmed up yet - might give an entry on the long side. Or might be a spikefade setup eventually. Maybe, maybe not. Let's haggle for longs, and be patient for a short.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TZOO.jpg

spikefader
05-20-2004, 10:31 PM
Hey spike that ESMC short worked out pretty well for me, thanks for taking the time to look at it for me. Any thoughts on a Long Pos. in CNLG.

Thanks again
Congrats!
Just some quick thoughts:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CNLG.jpg

spikefader
05-20-2004, 10:35 PM
Looking for an entry around 4.80-5.00 range...
If it gets that low that would be a channel turn down, and I'd be waiting for better times to enter. If it were me, assuming the channel doesn't turn down, I'd consider an entry just above the red channel entry the other day, with a stop below the low on that day.

spikefader
05-20-2004, 10:35 PM
Sorry spike, scratch CNLG. Want no part of it long or short.

Thanks
LOL alrighty then....

New-born baby
05-20-2004, 10:39 PM
Spike :shock:

You gotta look at PHRM's chart. Gapped up--huge hole!--over $8! :shock: And as you say, "gaps like to be filled." I can just see you putting this one on your watch list, and fading the spike for big $$$. :twisted: Just alert me when the time comes, okay?

Best of trading to ya,

spikefader
05-20-2004, 10:49 PM
Spike :shock:

You gotta look at PHRM's chart. Gapped up--huge hole!--over $8! :shock: And as you say, "gaps like to be filled." I can just see you putting this one on your watch list, and fading the spike for big $$$. :twisted: Just alert me when the time comes, okay?

Best of trading to ya,
Yep - one to watch for sure. Now if I can just remember to check up on it every now and then ... lol

IIC
05-20-2004, 11:07 PM
I went into RELV finally at 11.16 today...still waiting for WITS to do something(largest holding)...HANS, added in the low 19's...avg buy low 17's...HURC doing well :)...Now, what the heck will happen with GMAI??? No need to respond, I'm just blowing off steam...THX, IIC

PS: Keep up the good work Spike!

spikefader
05-21-2004, 12:13 AM
I went into RELV finally at 11.16 today...still waiting for WITS to do something(largest holding)...HANS, added in the low 19's...avg buy low 17's...HURC doing well :)...Now, what the heck will happen with GMAI??? No need to respond, I'm just blowing off steam...THX, IIC
PS: Keep up the good work Spike!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV2.jpg

can't recall where you entered WITS, but it's lookin' like it needs a vacation :D I looked at the previous charts I had for the entry back at 10.80, and had I jumped on there, I'd be close to closing. A channel turndown would seal it. It better do something soon or people will bail.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WITS2.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HANS.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HURC.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/GMAI.jpg

IIC
05-21-2004, 12:21 AM
Cool Spike...THX...IIC

PS...I got in WITS in the 14's the day it hit 15.06

yaoyao
05-21-2004, 12:54 AM
Spike,

I'm holding one of MM's last five picks: MPX. What's your thought on this? It was doing ok after the gap down, but it's turning down again.

BTW, you use red channel a lot. What' the time frame you use to draw the red channel? What's difference among channels in different color (just time frame?)

Thanks.

Ying

yaoyao
05-21-2004, 01:00 AM
Spike,

I'm holding one of MM's last five picks: MPX. What's your thought on this? It was doing ok after the gap down, but it's turning down again.

BTW, you use red channel a lot. What' the time frame you use to draw the red channel? What's difference among channels in different color (just time frame?)

Thanks.

Ying

spikefader
05-21-2004, 08:11 AM
Back on page 3 of this thread I looked at SGMS and anticipated possible R shoulder formation.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SGMS_todays_look.jpg

Today:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SGMS_in_review.jpg

spikefader
05-21-2004, 08:34 AM
Spike,

I'm holding one of MM's last five picks: MPX. What's your thought on this? It was doing ok after the gap down, but it's turning down again.

BTW, you use red channel a lot. What' the time frame you use to draw the red channel? What's difference among channels in different color (just time frame?)

Thanks.

Ying
Yes, for each new channel I will pick a new color. Other than that, the colors of the channel have no meaning and are random just to make it easier to read. I think I often use red for downward channels or turn ups.
MPX:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MPX_2.jpg

spikefader
05-21-2004, 10:04 AM
Further to BEL
There are dreams out there. Just don't know how likely this is. But hey, it looks good :D
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_bullish.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/BEL_dreams.jpg

yaoyao
05-21-2004, 12:51 PM
Spike,

Thanks for your reply.

Any update on APPX? Do you think it'll continue its down trend?

Yaoyao

New-born baby
05-21-2004, 04:20 PM
Spike :shock:

I apologize for wearing you out, but I think this thing is too hot to ignore. PHRM shot up $12.29 on Thursday, May 20 , but with a huge $8 hole. Friday PHRM lost $1.55 of those gains, and I am thinking that we are just one roadside bomb in IRAQ from making this thing pay us the upside down $8. So please consider this a friendly request to glance at PHRM's chart each day next week, as I think we are going to see a long red skid mark in the not too distant future. (Then maybe we can take it long from there).

spikefader
05-21-2004, 05:03 PM
Spike,

Thanks for your reply.

Any update on APPX? Do you think it'll continue its down trend?

Yaoyao
APPX a buy today! :D

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/APPX_channel_long.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/APPX_intraday_entry.jpg

Websman
05-21-2004, 05:05 PM
Seems to be a little interesting action in stocks such as TZOO and PHRM. Could this be the beginnings of a new rally at hand? :D

Or, could this just be a few stock that are just going against the trend? :cry:

If I were a conspiracy buff, I would say that there will be a strong rally this summer, just in time for the presedential election. I would also say that this rally would be supported artificially by a shadow government and that the world is actually ran by extraterrestrial beings that are using us for there own sick scientific experiments. I would also say Elvis is not dead and is running the whole operation.

But... I'm not that big on conspiracies so I'll just say that I think we'll see a rally this summer because of the economy improving, but time will tell.

spikefader
05-21-2004, 05:13 PM
..apologize for wearing you out, but I think this thing is too hot to ignore.....I am thinking that we are just one roadside bomb in IRAQ from making this thing pay us the upside down $8...friendly request to glance at PHRM's chart each day next week, as I think we are going to see a long red skid mark in the not too distant future. (Then maybe we can take it long from there).
Sure, I'll watch it whenever I can.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/PHRM.jpg

spikefader
05-21-2004, 05:23 PM
I dunno about a new rally webs. I still see short side for the general market. Always will be those standouts that you mention.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_weekly_update.jpg

New-born baby
05-21-2004, 06:45 PM
Websman,

I want to comment on your comment about a possible summer rally.
I have been reading that the market is headed for a 9500 DOW right now. Why? Because the market would be correctly valued at 9500 if we had a 6% interest rate, according to the Federal Reserve's model, and it appears that a 6% interest rate will be here in 2005 (possibly quite early in 2005). The market leads the economy by six to nine months (so says Wm. O'Neill and others). Therefore, I think that the there will be no rally before we hit 9500 or lower. At least that is how I am planning my investing strategies.

I wish you all the best, 8)

Websman
05-21-2004, 06:51 PM
You guys may be right and thats why I'm being cautious for now.
The market could, very well be headed further down.

Where is Nostradamous when you need him? :shock:

MEA_1956
05-22-2004, 05:32 AM
I'm without friends over here in the HOWLING and would like to take this time to invite you back to post a pick that no one has requested. A man of your wisdome has surely got a pick or two up your sleve that is just waiting to get out and dance in front of a new crowd. See you there. ===> MEA

New-born baby
05-22-2004, 08:20 PM
OPEC just announced that it is not going to up production. :shock: You can count on that shaking the market Monday (5-24-04). Look for short positions. And if you know of any good ones, list them here!

I wish you all the best,

New-born baby
05-23-2004, 04:38 PM
:shock:

New-born baby
05-23-2004, 04:39 PM
Spike :shock:

Here's one for you :idea: --I think it has potential for a short because:
1. It was down Friday on large volume.
2. It dropped below its 50 and 200 MA.
3. It has a gap underneath it between $38 and $41.04, while its current price is $43.06.

What do you think?

Thank you!

spikefader
05-23-2004, 10:07 PM
ENR not ready for short. Recently had a long channel entry and channel from that point is still upward. No short signal yet with my setup.

spikefader
05-24-2004, 10:39 AM
QQQ good r/r now short
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_short_now.jpg

spikefader
05-25-2004, 02:39 AM
WITS- next few days will be pivotal

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/WITS_update.jpg

spikefader
05-25-2004, 02:46 AM
a good reason to use channels as exit points :D

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV_update.jpg

New-born baby
05-25-2004, 09:51 AM
Spike :shock:

Did you see PHRM hit the skids this morning? Yesterday down another $.50 to the gap, and this morning, she is starting to slide down through the gap, down $1.50/

spikefader
05-25-2004, 10:39 AM
Spike :shock:

Did you see PHRM hit the skids this morning? Yesterday down another $.50 to the gap, and this morning, she is starting to slide down through the gap, down $1.50/
But frankly, without a technical reason to enter long or short at the moment all you can do is watch it. There will be a right time to enter it, but now is not that time.

Gem
05-25-2004, 05:42 PM
Hey Spike,

Your analysis is really educative..Any thoughts on CADA?
Long CADA..
Gem

jiesen
05-25-2004, 07:03 PM
Hey Spike,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OFG&t=5d

Was this the entry you were looking for with OFG? I remember you predicted this downdraft from $32. Looks to me like it's headed back up, what do you think?

spikefader
05-25-2004, 09:59 PM
Hey Spike,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=OFG&t=5d

Was this the entry you were looking for with OFG? I remember you predicted this downdraft from $32. Looks to me like it's headed back up, what do you think?
Hmmm....perhaps a correction up, but still has that SHS target....
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_May25.jpg

spikefader
05-25-2004, 10:10 PM
Hey Spike,
Your analysis is really educative..Any thoughts on CADA?
Long CADA..
Gem
Great!

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CADA.jpg

Gem
05-25-2004, 10:47 PM
Thanks Spike for your prompt response. I appreciate it.

Gem

jiesen
05-26-2004, 02:41 AM
hey thanks for the OFG update. Doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies on my position, but I can live with that. What exactly does the SHS mean?

spikefader
05-26-2004, 08:21 AM
hey thanks for the OFG update. Doesn't exactly give me the warm fuzzies on my position, but I can live with that. What exactly does the SHS mean?
Sure. 8)
http://www.stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/headShouldersTop.html
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm
http://www.chartpatterns.com/invtdheadandshoulderschrts.htm
SHS is a trend reversal pattern. A pretty reliable one too. But not 100%, just like everything else. There are often failed SHS setups, which is why patterns are an edge, not a certainty. Put the edge in the best possible risk reward entry and use an acceptable stop loss and you'll live to play another day.

spikefader
05-27-2004, 10:37 AM
QQQ update -- might wait for a short had the upper pink channel.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_May_27.jpg

kingofthehill
05-27-2004, 10:37 AM
spike give me an ELN reading

IamOrion
05-27-2004, 05:56 PM
Spike
Any thoughts on LSCP Long.

TIA Orion

stocks54
05-27-2004, 06:42 PM
Mr. Spike,

Any comment on STX?

Regards,

jiesen
05-27-2004, 06:47 PM
dang, 3 requests in one day. You're getting mighty popular around here!

IamOrion
05-28-2004, 01:41 AM
His chart annotations are excellent. I have learned alot since his arrival. Been trying some on my own recently. Thanks for all the education.

spikefader
05-28-2004, 03:25 AM
spike give me an ELN readingleft the latest thoughts in your thread. As per that intraday chart I put there, an entry long at the pivot today would be working now :-) I did not take it - I will wait for lower channel entry. But bias is long.

spikefader
05-29-2004, 12:03 PM
Having some PC probs this weekend. I had just about finished charting LSCP for you IamOrien, but lost it before saving! grr. I'll have to fix this prob first.
Good weekends all!

IamOrion
05-29-2004, 02:44 PM
No problem. Whenever you got the time my man.

Thanks

Websman
05-29-2004, 05:16 PM
Well folks,
I've been on vacation and haven't watched my stocks for over a week now.
I just checked my portfolio and discovered that I have made a nice little profit on SNCI during my recess time. It also appears to me that SNCI may be setting up a possible S-H-S formation. I'm sure the great Spike could either confirm or unconfirm this.
If this is what I think it is, it should drop a little as it forms a handle and then should build volume and run up. the buy point would be around $10.50.

So spike... Am I right or wrong? Bull or Bear??? :?:

New-born baby
05-30-2004, 09:25 PM
Spike, :shock:

Do you like? ECSI has a double bottom with handle. Do you like what the tea leaves read?

Websman
05-30-2004, 10:45 PM
Spike, :shock:

Do you like? ECSI has a double bottom with handle. Do you like what the tea leaves read?

Looks interesting... :idea:

Websman
05-31-2004, 09:44 PM
Having some PC probs this weekend. I had just about finished charting LSCP for you IamOrien, but lost it before saving! grr. I'll have to fix this prob first.
Good weekends all!

Don't be so cheap Spike. :shock: Go buy a new computer. Heck, with your superior abilities, you should have enough $$$ to buy a whole truck load full of Dells finest PC's.

Now that I think about it, I should be buying you a new PC. After all, your lessons have been worth much more than that. :lol:

Michaelk005
06-01-2004, 05:26 PM
hey spike
Take a quick look at ORCL, due for a nice reversal tomorow.

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:23 PM
Spike
Any thoughts on LSCP Long.

TIA Orion
not sure about this one.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP.jpg

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:29 PM
Mr. Spike,

Any comment on STX?

Regards,
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/STX.jpg

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:31 PM
His chart annotations are excellent. I have learned alot since his arrival. Been trying some on my own recently. Thanks for all the education.Great to hear! If these charts provoke some thought and learning then it's worth it.

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:42 PM
Well folks,
I've been on vacation and haven't watched my stocks for over a week now.
I just checked my portfolio and discovered that I have made a nice little profit on SNCI during my recess time. It also appears to me that SNCI may be setting up a possible S-H-S formation. I'm sure the great Spike could either confirm or unconfirm this.
If this is what I think it is, it should drop a little as it forms a handle and then should build volume and run up. the buy point would be around $10.50.

So spike... Am I right or wrong? Bull or Bear??? :?:

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SNCI_update2.jpg

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:50 PM
Spike, :shock:

Do you like? ECSI has a double bottom with handle. Do you like what the tea leaves read?
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ECSI.jpg

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:52 PM
Vote time:
PM me with preference on chart quality that I post. Would you rather 600x800 (the poorer quality one) or the original?
Me: I prefer the original.

spikefader
06-01-2004, 10:59 PM
Don't be so cheap Spike. :shock: Go buy a new computer. Heck, with your superior abilities, you should have enough $$$ to buy a whole truck load full of Dells finest PC's.

Now that I think about it, I should be buying you a new PC. After all, your lessons have been worth much more than that. :lol:
LOL no way I'd buy a dell, or a gateway or any of those second-rate PCs. I build my own and this one rocks! Can do SuperPi 1M in 38 seconds, which isn't too shabby. The problems I get are usually self-inflicted 'cuz I'm always tweaking :D
Glad to hear you're valuing the contributions!
To Vulcan trading this week!

spikefader
06-01-2004, 11:07 PM
hey spike
Take a quick look at ORCL, due for a nice reversal tomorow.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ECSI.jpg

stocks54
06-01-2004, 11:32 PM
Spike,

Thanks for your comments on STX. Took 50% loss....looks like hard disk industry is getting into more fierce price war....

Any comments on WITS/NT.

Regards,

IamOrion
06-02-2004, 02:57 AM
Spike,

Thanks for the LSCP insights. I made just about 3 points so far and I will look to sell tomorrow. I prefer your original chart. They seem to be a little easier to read.

Took a short position in SAFM today also. Hopefully I can get a few points out of that as well.

Thanks again,
Orion

Websman
06-02-2004, 09:01 AM
SNCI, Short entry??? :shock:

I must be way off on my analysis. :cry:

Oh well, time will tell...


Thanks again, Spike!

It's good to know that someone out there has time and actually builds there own PC. For me, I'll stick with my cheap Dell. lol :lol:

jiesen
06-02-2004, 12:58 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AACE&t=5d

what does this chart say is in AACE's near future? are we in for a major run now or what?

TIA

spikefader
06-02-2004, 01:25 PM
SNCI, Short entry??? :shock:

I must be way off on my analysis. :cry:

Oh well, time will tell...


Thanks again, Spike!

It's good to know that someone out there has time and actually builds there own PC. For me, I'll stick with my cheap Dell. lol :lol:
Post a chart with what you see for the bullish picture. Or is it fundamentals? Remember, price often enough moves against any interpretation, which is why I use tight stops. If I'm wrong, it's no big deal and I'm in and out. SNCI could go up - I just wouldn't buy it right now, and I have a bearish bias if anything. That'll change with the next bullish channel movement.

spikefader
06-02-2004, 01:28 PM
Took 50% loss....Regards,
Ouch. Hope it was a small position only.

spikefader
06-02-2004, 01:35 PM
Any comments on WITS/NT.

WITS, I'd close any long position today or at next upper channel, based on channel turn down.
NT looks weak, but has recent channel turn up and is looking for a long at the next lower channel from the low of 3.01.

spikefader
06-02-2004, 01:39 PM
Spike,

Thanks for the LSCP insights. I made just about 3 points so far and I will look to sell tomorrow. I prefer your original chart. They seem to be a little easier to read.

Took a short position in SAFM today also. Hopefully I can get a few points out of that as well.

Thanks again,
Orion
I'd hold on to it. That channel turned up today. If it stays up, you should hold it. Nice 3 points. Hope you can keep 'em! :D and some. Yeah, I agree re the charts.
SAFM? Looks strong that one. What made you short it? I just looked at my previous chart indicating good place to take profits, with pigs looking for the upper black channel. Shorting is dangerous now - just had a channel turn up.

spikefader
06-02-2004, 01:44 PM
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AACE&t=5d

what does this chart say is in AACE's near future? are we in for a major run now or what?

TIA
well, right now, it looks like it might test 28.00 upper channel so shorters will consider there. You've had a savage neckline break from SHS, so I'd be cautious on the long side.

jiesen
06-02-2004, 01:57 PM
ok, thanks for the input!

Websman
06-02-2004, 02:22 PM
Remember, price often enough moves against any interpretation, which is why I use tight stops. If I'm wrong, it's no big deal and I'm in and out. SNCI could go up - I just wouldn't buy it right now, and I have a bearish bias if anything. That'll change with the next bullish channel movement.

I'll set my stop tight.

I was going by Canslim criteria....or so I thought. I guess I need to keep working on my charting skills.

Oh well, time to hit the books again. :oops:

grebnet
06-02-2004, 03:14 PM
Any thoughts on TOMO ?????????????? Thanks

IamOrion
06-02-2004, 03:39 PM
I'd hold on to it. That channel turned up today. If it stays up, you should hold it. Nice 3 points. Hope you can keep 'em! and some. Yeah, I agree re the charts.
SAFM? Looks strong that one. What made you short it? I just looked at my previous chart indicating good place to take profits, with pigs looking for the upper black channel. Shorting is dangerous now - just had a channel turn up.



I doubled down at 32.00 today and I sold it all at 33.89. Wow, what a day. I shorted SAFM because it looks to be getting over extended. I shorted near 48.00, actually 47.90ish. Well see how it works out. I took a very small position, less than 500 shares. I also bought some AMED two days ago for 26.05. Man, things have just been really clicking lately. What are your thoughts on the NAZ turning over here soon. Looks like it is getting overbought for the short term.

I have to you give alot of credit spike, just looking at your charts and then applying to some of my stuff has really given me a different take on how I analyize a stock. I cannot thank you enough

Orion

IamOrion
06-02-2004, 03:54 PM
Just bought some more after selling it all got back in at 32.25. I took a small position this time. Might give a little more back before it continues higher. If we go lower I pick up some more.

stocks54
06-02-2004, 04:38 PM
Took 50% loss....Regards,
Ouch. Hope it was a small position only.

It wasn't that big...

Thanks for your input on WITS/NT. Got some NT....

Regards,

spikefader
06-03-2004, 12:33 AM
Any thoughts on TOMO ?????????????? Thanks
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TOMO.jpg

spikefader
06-03-2004, 12:49 AM
I doubled down at 32.00 today and I sold it all at 33.89. Wow, what a day.
Nice intraday exit there 8) The way the daily candle looks, I'd be glad I'm out :D


I shorted SAFM because it looks to be getting over extended. I shorted near 48.00, actually 47.90ish. Well see how it works out. I took a very small position, less than 500 shares.
Cool. Just be disciplined and don't let it get away from you.


bought some AMED two days ago for 26.05. Man, things have just been really clicking lately. What are your thoughts on the NAZ turning over here soon. Looks like it is getting overbought for the short term.

Very nice on AMED!
NAZ, just had a channel turn up today (channel from 1499.4). Should test 1500. Reaction there will be interesting.


I have to you give alot of credit spike, just looking at your charts and then applying to some of my stuff has really given me a different take on how I analyize a stock. I cannot thank you enough
Orion
That's great to hear. Thanks for the feedback. Hope your streak continues :D Are you now using channels, or just patterns? Daily/intraday? Support/resistence?

spikefader
06-03-2004, 12:53 AM
Just bought some more after selling it all got back in at 32.25. I took a small position this time. Might give a little more back before it continues higher. If we go lower I pick up some more.
Today's action on LSCP was a bullish channel break up. If I were going to add lower, I'd wait until a lower channel touch.

IamOrion
06-03-2004, 10:13 AM
Spike,

I have started using channels, and looking for key support and resistance levels. I use three indicators and look for certain formations and candlstick patterns. I have Identified a certain set-up that has yet to fail me. Not saying that it will work every time, but it has treated me well both long and short. My first big wins with it were a reveral long on OSTK and my ESMC Short.

Thanks again. I have a ton of server space and message board set-up if you would like to start posting more charts that are larger. Just and idea, I might launch it myself soon with some of my ideas. It will be open to everyone and free.

Thanks again
Orion

spikefader
06-03-2004, 10:23 AM
This is on my watchlist!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OSTK2.jpg

spikefader
06-03-2004, 10:28 AM
Spike,
I have started using channels, and looking for key support and resistance levels. I use three indicators and look for certain formations and candlstick patterns. I have Identified a certain set-up that has yet to fail me. Not saying that it will work every time, but it has treated me well both long and short. My first big wins with it were a reveral long on OSTK and my ESMC Short.
Thanks again. I have a ton of server space and message board set-up if you would like to start posting more charts that are larger. Just and idea, I might launch it myself soon with some of my ideas. It will be open to everyone and free.
Thanks again
Orion
LOL what a coincidence. I had just uploaded OSTK this morning on my watchlist. The last chart I posted for it had watching for a short, but had a channel turn up before it granted an entry. Bias currently is long, with potential entry point short at the upper channel. Gotta love shorting into strength in the right setup, such as this one. Because if it does work and you get a neckline break, you get a real nice move.
When your site is set up post a link.

IamOrion
06-03-2004, 10:32 AM
I will post the link.

OSTK I remember I brought this one to you for a short candidate a couple weeks back. I made great money down and then reversed it for the ride back up. I sold to early at about 35.25

My SAFM short is lookin good so far. Approaching a 1 point profit this morning.

spikefader
06-03-2004, 10:34 AM
....and my ESMC Short.

My previously posted ESMC chart was waiting for the neckline break. That happened nicely :D
Lookin' good so far. Nice target. You still holding?
I'll consider a short based on intraday pattern for this one.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ESMC3.jpg

spikefader
06-03-2004, 10:39 AM
Hmm, ESMC not available for shorting with interactivebrokers.com bummer. Who's your broker?

Websman
06-03-2004, 10:46 AM
Spike,
I have started using channels, and looking for key support and resistance levels. I use three indicators and look for certain formations and candlstick patterns. I have Identified a certain set-up that has yet to fail me. Not saying that it will work every time, but it has treated me well both long and short. My first big wins with it were a reveral long on OSTK and my ESMC Short.
Thanks again. I have a ton of server space and message board set-up if you would like to start posting more charts that are larger. Just and idea, I might launch it myself soon with some of my ideas. It will be open to everyone and free.
Thanks again
Orion
LOL what a coincidence. I had just uploaded OSTK this morning on my watchlist. The last chart I posted for it had watching for a short, but had a channel turn up before it granted an entry. Bias currently is long, with potential entry point short at the upper channel. Gotta love shorting into strength in the right setup, such as this one. Because if it does work and you get a neckline break, you get a real nice move.
When your site is set up post a link.

This is unreal!
Two charting experts on one board! The Vulcan gods must be shining on me.

Orion, I would love to know when you get your board going.
I'm still charterly illiterate, but am working as hard as I can to become more proficient. I figure that if I can learn Mr Markets superior fundamental analysis skills and Spikes fantastic charting techniques, I can eventually reach my goal of aquiring a very large sum of money.

IamOrion
06-03-2004, 11:03 AM
Spike I coverd on that awhile ago. I jumped in and out for about a total of 6 points. It is not a short candidate for me any longer. I played it from about 20ish down to its current levels. I use Scottrade currently, how is Interactive brokers, the only reason I keep scottrade is because of there scottrade elite software.

spikefader
06-03-2004, 12:20 PM
Spike I coverd on that awhile ago. I jumped in and out for about a total of 6 points. It is not a short candidate for me any longer. I played it from about 20ish down to its current levels. I use Scottrade currently, how is Interactive brokers, the only reason I keep scottrade is because of there scottrade elite software.
6 points :D Very nice
Interactive Brokers is awesome. Once you've tried it you won't look back. It's direct access and fast fills. Plus the fees are great. A penny a share, which is great. Not so good for real cheap stocks, you'd be better with scottrade with a fixed fee. But IB is very reliable and very rarely has problems. They are not known for hand-holding and their service is brusk and not the best I've experienced, but what do you expect for the price :D As far as the platform (Trader Workstation) goes, it's awesome. Would recommend you try it.

carribean_mike
06-03-2004, 08:30 PM
Spike,

I don't do alot of shorting, but I am a pretty good one now. Shorted DAL at $6.63. What do the charts say?

Thanks

Websman
06-03-2004, 09:06 PM
:shock: HA HA HA!!!........... :lol: :roll: 8)

Yes....Websman is a very happy Vulcan trader today! His human side is taking over and he is overcome with Vulcan joy and excitement!

What a Vulcan ride I took on IPIX today. Because of IPIX, I have become a little more wealthy. This was a great play with capital that I could have lost and still had $$$ to trade with. But now I have more $$$!!!
I usually couldn't have traded this one, but I'm off work this week and thought I would experiment with a little momentum trading. I got lucky. Next week it's back to regular trading.

This stock is nothing but pure hype and will drop out of sight after it finishes it's quick run. I personally don't care about the true value of IPIX as long as I made money.

Soooo.... Spike...Dude!



What is your take on IPIX? How bad is the chart on this one? I can tell you my analysis that it aint good. It only ran up because of Tom Rodge mentioned it in a speech. The chart is crazy and doesn't look good to me. I'll be up, first thing in the morning ready to pull the trigger and cash out my profits. :twisted:

Websman
06-03-2004, 09:08 PM
Tom Rodge???

Uh, I meant Tom Ridge.

IamOrion
06-03-2004, 09:14 PM
Those sec. stocks are gettin played something fierce lately. I made some decent money on MAGS lately. Keep an eye on MAGS for a short soon....

Nice job on IPIX. When you get a day like that it makes it so darn fun.

Websman
06-03-2004, 10:04 PM
Thanks!

I just gotta make sure to get out in time to protect my profits. thats the real trick.

spikefader
06-04-2004, 01:05 AM
Spike,

I don't do alot of shorting, but I am a pretty good one now. Shorted DAL at $6.63. What do the charts say?

Thanks
Just quickly without a chart, DAL has had a bullish channel break 10 days ago, and three trading days ago it came very close to the perfect channel long entry, but it didn't actually hit the channel, so maybe more downside yet.
But it may be forming an inverted SHS too, but not a very classic shape. You could argue it's got a double bottom on the daily. I would be cautious with short DAL. I would definately move my stop to even if I were in at 6.63.

IamOrion
06-04-2004, 10:19 AM
Spike,
Did you grab any ESMC, nice call.

carribean_mike
06-04-2004, 05:51 PM
IBD100 #1 stocks are snake bit. Some after they are dropped from #1. Others while they are #1 like ESMC. MIDD is the next one. Spike what does your charts say about shorting MIDD.

thanks

spikefader
06-04-2004, 05:56 PM
NUTR - remember long from back at 20.00. A couple of nice targets too.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_update_2.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_intraday.jpg

spikefader
06-04-2004, 05:59 PM
Spike,
Did you grab any ESMC, nice call.
No I didn't, wasn't available when I checked but nice move! Charts don't lie.....only people do :D

spikefader
06-04-2004, 06:38 PM
IBD100 #1 stocks are snake bit. Some after they are dropped from #1. Others while they are #1 like ESMC. MIDD is the next one. Spike what does your charts say about shorting MIDD.

thanks
Midd is a nice long at current levels :D But there is possible 5 wave move, so tight stops naturally. Closed right at S2 intraday support, so long there is good.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MIDD_Long3.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MIDD_Long2.jpg

IamOrion
06-04-2004, 07:09 PM
I checked through Scottrade, and they didn't have any either. How often you come across stocks that you cannot short through Interactive brokers? I see alot of nice short set-ups and I would say atleast half the time Scottrade does not have the shares...

IamOrion
06-04-2004, 07:14 PM
Covered my SAFM for about a dimes worth of profits. :?

kingofthehill
06-04-2004, 07:35 PM
SPIKE , how is my baby ELN looking... i smell a new leg up starting

spikefader
06-04-2004, 11:34 PM
I checked through Scottrade, and they didn't have any either. How often you come across stocks that you cannot short through Interactive brokers? I see alot of nice short set-ups and I would say atleast half the time Scottrade does not have the shares...
Too often! :D Actually, it's not so bad. It's usually the less traded/lower volume stocks. It's not so bad if there are put options to trade. I've never called to ask for a broker to look for shares to borrow, but I know people who have, and their broker has gone and found some to borrow for them. Make a call and see if they'll do it.

spikefader
06-04-2004, 11:36 PM
SPIKE , how is my baby ELN looking... i smell a new leg up starting
I'm smelling it too. No recent lower channel entry yet, but I'm watching :D

Websman
06-05-2004, 07:29 PM
SPIKE , how is my baby ELN looking... i smell a new leg up starting
I'm smelling it too. No recent lower channel entry yet, but I'm watching :D

Since I missed the boat on NUTR, I guess I'll be watching ELN with You guys. 8)

IIC
06-05-2004, 07:38 PM
SPIKE , how is my baby ELN looking... i smell a new leg up starting
I'm smelling it too. No recent lower channel entry yet, but I'm watching :D

Since I missed the boat on NUTR, I guess I'll be watching ELN with You guys. 8)

Well, Maybe you missed NUTR(me too)...but I am holding onto RELV...same group...Won't be the next USNA or TASR but I still like it...IIC

spikefader
06-05-2004, 07:56 PM
Speaking of RELV. Hope you don't mind it being a case study IIC, but there's a good lesson on a common reaction at significant channel resistence. By the way, the channel from 12.24 turned up and gave another lower channel entry 4 days ago! Looking bullish, so your hold has paid off.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV_update_channel_resistence.jpg

IIC
06-05-2004, 09:05 PM
Speaking of RELV. Hope you don't mind it being a case study IIC, but there's a good lesson on a common reaction at significant channel resistence. By the way, the channel from 12.24 turned up and gave another lower channel entry 4 days ago! Looking bullish, so your hold has paid off.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV_update_channel_resistence.jpg

Spike...I know you are right...But I'm in it for the Long Term now...LOL :lol:

This market has been CRAZY this year...not for the faint of heart IMO

spikefader
06-07-2004, 04:15 PM
Yep - but market's always nuts :D
Long term for RELV huh? Well, I hope my fears don't come to fruition. It's had a 5 wave move, got an ugly SHS, channels proving resistence. Three good reasons to be careful on the long side.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV_channel.jpg

IIC
06-07-2004, 05:29 PM
Here's another one of mine that doesn't look so hot...I may take profits early if it doesn't head up tomorrow:

http://www.arborwood.com/awforums/data/attached_files/1160/22679.1.lton0607.gif

spikefader
06-07-2004, 05:40 PM
LTON: The channel from the recent high at 15.24 turned up and remains up at eod today. Also an inverted SHS (but with a gap in it), with an unmet target on the upside. Solid support at 11.00ish and above the gap......But not sure on the long side. The chart is too young and scary :D

To the short side, you've got a dirty fat gap down there. It's fallen into the bottom half of the channel from the low at 7.37.

New-born baby
06-07-2004, 05:54 PM
Spike :shock:

Just a head's up on CDE. Harry Dobash of MSN Money rates it a certified doomed stock in today's Money section. He's not reading charts; he's reading debt, p/e, price to sales, debt to equity, and cash flow.

Wouldn't want you to look like this :shock: because of a sudden revelation.

Websman
06-07-2004, 06:10 PM
Well folks,
I Thought I had missed the boat on NUTR, but it came screaming back to the dock at full throttle! :shock:

Fascinating indeed...

I guess I could get in, but I think I'll wait another day or two and see if this boat smashes the dock to pieces and head south into town. Being it's a Mr Market pick, I feel confident it will be a winner in the long run. It may take a few extra days though.

spikefader
06-07-2004, 06:25 PM
Spike :shock:

Just a head's up on CDE. Harry Dobash of MSN Money rates it a certified doomed stock in today's Money section. He's not reading charts; he's reading debt, p/e, price to sales, debt to equity, and cash flow.

Wouldn't want you to look like this :shock: because of a sudden revelation.
Thanks for that, but I got out back at page 17 at 4.38. I posted an intraday chart at resistence.
But looking at it today, it sure is an interesting chart. Maybe short from 7.00 is what to look for?
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CDE_short_at_7.jpg

spikefader
06-07-2004, 06:29 PM
Well folks,
I Thought I had missed the boat on NUTR, but it came screaming back to the dock at full throttle! :shock: I guess I could get in, but I think I'll wait another day or two and see if this boat smashes the dock to pieces and head south into town. Being it's a Mr Market pick, I feel confident it will be a winner in the long run. It may take a few extra days though.
Wait for a channel entry:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_update3.jpg

Websman
06-07-2004, 08:32 PM
Spike, My Vulcan logic tells me that you is... :shock: ...uhhh, I mean, you ARE right about waiting for a Channel entry on NUTR.

NUTR is up 13 pennies after hours, but I've learned not to read too much into that. This price action is quite intriguing indeed.

Thanks Spike!

spikefader
06-08-2004, 12:30 AM
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/OFG_a_vulcans_revenge.jpg

New-born baby
06-08-2004, 09:04 AM
Spike :shock:

Let's be brutally honest: doesn't NUTR look like a decent short for today (8 June 2004)? Hammered yesterday after that $1 gap up at the open, and now looking like another possible down day to (gulp!) $21?? NUTR is setting on imagination if you look at the price by volume side of things. It could very easily break through (IMO). That statement of your "wait for channel entry" is reflecting the possibility of a fall to the $21 channel, is it not?

Just for fun you may want to view the chart on RGC. Horrible fall through a $5 gap.

Best investing to you,

spikefader
06-08-2004, 09:38 AM
...brutally honest yes, let's do that always :D

...a decent short for today (8 June 2004)?
Well, maybe it is. But in my book 'real' decent shorts are executed into strength and not weakness. Sell at resistence after a run up, and look for intraday pattern to confirm your entry. That puts the edge in your favor.
But having said that, a decent short can be after weakness, but you've got to be careful chasing sell offs. Timing is everything. I wouldn't short NUTR today. If anyone WAS going to, I'd suggest doing it in a disciplined fashion - say a double top formation, with a stop above hod, or at R2 intraday.

...statement of your "wait for channel entry" is reflecting the possibility of a fall to the $21 channel, is it not?

Yes - absolutely the possibility. But I still think the edge remains on the long side until there is a channel turn down or break, which there hasn't been yet. So my long call from 20.00 remains open.



Just for fun you may want to view the chart on RGC. Horrible fall through a $5 gap.
yowza :D that drop shows a weekly channel break on a long-term weekly chart on the down side. I'd suggest waiting for a bounce - and shorting into strength at a channel for that one. One to watch - channel short could occur anywhere between where it is now and 21.00.

Websman
06-08-2004, 06:19 PM
OFG Vulcan revenge??? :evil:

YES!!! That be very satisfying to get back at this piece of #@%* stock. :twisted:

The Vulcans will wait in shadows and will attack this evil menace when the time is right. Yes, victory will be sweet and is forthcoming. Paitence is a virtue.

Websman
06-08-2004, 06:22 PM
Paitence is a virtue.

uhh...patience not paitence.

I need a full time proofreader.

Websman
06-08-2004, 09:47 PM
BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...er...BWAAAAAAAAAAHA!!!!

It's going to tank!!!!! All gloom and doom!!!! DISASTER!!!!

BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!


Excuse me, but I noticed we don't have any bashers here like they do on the Yahoo boards, so I thought I try my hand at bashing.

What stock am I bashing you might ask? Hmmm...I'm not sure. Pick one you don't like and we can bash it together.

Ok. Everyone ready. On the count of 3.

1....2....3! BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHAHA!!!!!

spikefader
06-09-2004, 10:26 AM
:lol: Websman. I'm wondering whether you've got a headache this morning from the alcohol I suspect you consumed around the time you wrote that! :lol:

jiesen
06-09-2004, 10:41 AM
just be careful what you wish for...

mention the devil one too many times, etc.

tokyojoeskid
06-09-2004, 12:06 PM
Spike help me out with a little TA on HDWR. I think if it breaks through 25 it could easily run to 27.5. Is this a long or a short, fundamentals look great
thanks
TJK

kingofthehill
06-09-2004, 02:49 PM
good entry point right now on ELN, its down $1.30 today for no reason..whats your chart say spike

spikefader
06-09-2004, 03:29 PM
Spike help me out with a little TA on HDWR. I think if it breaks through 25 it could easily run to 27.5. Is this a long or a short, fundamentals look great
thanks
TJK
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/HDWR_2.jpg

spikefader
06-09-2004, 03:35 PM
good entry point right now on ELN, its down $1.30 today for no reason..whats your chart say spike
getting close.... I'm estimateing 21.80 is the channel, so I'd like it to test 21.80.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_close_to_long.jpg

spikefader
06-09-2004, 04:08 PM
Sets up perfectly here: Stop should be tucked under LOD. This intraday entry is based on inverted SHS with the entry anticipating the shoulder. If it trades lower than LOD then the setup is proven wrong and you're out with a shaving nick and not a cut or deep wound :D
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_long_at_channel.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_intraday_entry.jpg

spikefader
06-09-2004, 06:30 PM
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NUTR_entry_June_9.jpg

Websman
06-09-2004, 07:15 PM
:lol: Websman. I'm wondering whether you've got a headache this morning from the alcohol I suspect you consumed around the time you wrote that! :lol:

Hey, you how it goes Spike. Sometimes you've got to drink a few and relieve stress!
I'm feeling much better now, thanks.

Now to serious business.

DHB. They've just won a $239.4 million contract with the government yesterday. Trading was halted before the big news, then it shot up over $3 AH, but it was flat today and closed at $12.54. This flatness today is good news to me as it still allows me a chance to profit.

So, the news looks fantastic for huge profit potential, but...what about the chart??? :shock: Should we look at achart for this one? If so, what's your opinion oh Great Chartmaster Spikfader?

Any thoughts from anyone else would be very welcome also.

Websman
06-09-2004, 07:33 PM
OOPS...:shock:

Scratch the flat on DHB. I was looking at an intraday chart. It actually gapped up $3.24.

spikefader
06-09-2004, 07:53 PM
DHB
Here is the chart from earlier in the thread. http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_May_13.jpg
Was a couple days after the perfect entry and there hasn't been a channel entry since then. This is an example of why you have to be the early bird to get these perfect entries. A combination of patience, with quick execution at the right time. When you snag a perfect entry like this one, you breath easy from the get go.

And here we are today:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_nice_move_up.jpg

IIC
06-09-2004, 08:30 PM
Hey Spike...Maybe it is my imagination???...But do you seem to think(in general) that there are good opportunities to buy(Everything else being good) on days that stocks take a big intraday dip but bounceback strong on the same day?

Maybe I'm being too simplistic here...but I've noticed that on at least a few of your charts, which I really like BTW, you have a buy point indicated on days like that...THX...Keep up the helpful work...IIC

spikefader
06-10-2004, 01:06 AM
Hey Spike...Maybe it is my imagination???...But do you seem to think(in general) that there are good opportunities to buy(Everything else being good) on days that stocks take a big intraday dip but bounceback strong on the same day?

Maybe I'm being too simplistic here...but I've noticed that on at least a few of your charts, which I really like BTW, you have a buy point indicated on days like that...THX...Keep up the helpful work...IIC
Yes, sure do. Not your imagination :D
But only where price hits a channel. That is key. And in that case, 2 conditions must be met for me to feel good about buying a selloff day.
1. The chart must show a reason to look for a channel entry, ie. a daily chart pattern like an inverted SHS with neckline break, or anticipating a shoulder, or a channel break, or a channel turn up.
2. A nice intraday pattern to enter, ie. double bottom, wedge, bullflag, inverted SHS.

If 1 and 2 happens, then it absolutely is worth buying a big intraday dip. Buying into apparent weakness with a valid technical reason, with tight stops, and if the stops get taken out, not much is risked but reward can be great.

Same deal with those spiker fade setups - where you have a valid reason to short into that strength like a 5 wave move up and nice intraday pattern to enter.

These kinds of setups have pretty attractive risk/reward ratios, which is probably the best reason to like them. A couple of good trades can make up for a dozen stop outs. Ya just got to be patient and take what the market gives.

IIC
06-10-2004, 01:42 AM
Good explanation...THX

IamOrion
06-10-2004, 11:38 AM
Spike
Any thoughts on NMHC.

Thanks,
Orion

spikefader
06-10-2004, 12:17 PM
Spike
Any thoughts on NMHC.

Thanks,
Orion
Looking at 6 month chart, channels set up for a short just under the 40.00 area, as of today's channel anyway. Naturally, if it gets there today, look for an intraday pattern to confirm your entry point.

If you're wanting it to be a long, I'd suggest waiting to see what it does at the upper channel. Perhaps there will be a channel break or channel turn up from that high at 41.72. If that happens, then wait for a lower channel entry from the low at 32.43. Volume price looks bullish though. No distinct patterns that jump out at me.

IamOrion
06-10-2004, 12:27 PM
Yeah, I'm not getting alot from the chart either, I'll just watch for a bit. Got stopped out on my second LSCP position and its really getting pounded today.

spikefader
06-10-2004, 01:26 PM
Yeah, I'm not getting alot from the chart either, I'll just watch for a bit. Got stopped out on my second LSCP position and its really getting pounded today.
Just looked at the previous chart for LSCP in the thread. http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP.jpg Short was the bias :) sets up for short til the lower channel, then flip long.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP_short.jpg

IamOrion
06-10-2004, 01:40 PM
Yeah, I should have listened to you. I have my finger on the trigger its tempting to buy right here, but I will see what the last hour brings us. I also grabbed some OSTK short today at 36.10.

IamOrion
06-10-2004, 01:55 PM
When you do your annotations in Stockcharts how do you get them to look the way they do. The way I have been doing it is print screening the annotation then pasting it into paint, then saving it as a bit map or jpeg, but it stll has all the crap from the printscreen, like the tool bars and such. I would like to get mine to look like yours for my website.

Any pointers would be helpful
thanks

orion

spikefader
06-10-2004, 01:58 PM
When you do your annotations in Stockcharts how do you get them to look the way they do. The way I have been doing it is print screening the annotation then pasting it into paint, then saving it as a bit map or jpeg, but it stll has all the crap from the printscreen, like the tool bars and such. I would like to get mine to look like yours for my website.

Any pointers would be helpful
thanks

orion
I use snagit. When you take a snapshot it gives you some editing options like text and pointers and highlighting etc.

IamOrion
06-14-2004, 07:25 PM
Covered my ostk today at 34.00. Started to bounce on the 15 min and 10 min chart, so may look to reenter short when these charts top. Looking for further down side.

New-born baby
06-14-2004, 07:38 PM
Spike :shock:

PVX is a Canadian Oil Royalty trust that is traded on the NYSE. Yesterday (June 14) PVX was down to $7.90 on 3x normal volume. June 16 is the ex-dividend date for this month's dividend of $.0865 per share. Four times in the past 12 months PVX has bounced off of its support at $7.85.

My question: will it bounce a fifth time? Or do you see it breaking through support to fall all the way to the floor? If it will bounce, 15 June is a great day to buy it. But if not . . . . the floor is so hard! :twisted:

As always, thank you and the best investing to you!

Websman
06-14-2004, 07:57 PM
The market has been very generous to Websman the past couple of weeks. It is hard to control my human emotions, but I must let the Vulcan side stay in control as I become wealthier and My portfolio grows at an enormous rate. Yes I will suppress my emotions as this would lead to overconfidence and then carelessness.

My question of the week to Spike....

IPIX. Wild stock, yes. Has made me lots of money, oh yeah! Will continue making me huge piles of $$$, not sure, so I'm keeping a close eye on it.

Spike, do you ever trade crazy, hyped up stocks like IPIX or do you prefer not to get so wild and dangerous?

Personally, I enjoy the unemotional rush? It's kinda like riding a Hog on the open roads with a bunch of hell raising, long haired, rejects from the local state penitentary and consuming large amounts of Wild Turkey while I'm doing it.

spikefader
06-15-2004, 01:15 AM
Covered my ostk today at 34.00. Started to bounce on the 15 min and 10 min chart, so may look to reenter short when these charts top. Looking for further down side.That's a real nice area to cover. Looks like a 5 wave move down over the last several days, so to cover there is wise. The lower channel on the daily I see at 33ish, so might go a little lower before the support will consider.

spikefader
06-15-2004, 01:21 AM
Spike :shock:

PVX is a Canadian Oil Royalty trust that is traded on the NYSE. Yesterday (June 14) PVX was down to $7.90 on 3x normal volume. June 16 is the ex-dividend date for this month's dividend of $.0865 per share. Four times in the past 12 months PVX has bounced off of its support at $7.85.

My question: will it bounce a fifth time? Or do you see it breaking through support to fall all the way to the floor? If it will bounce, 15 June is a great day to buy it. But if not . . . . the floor is so hard! :twisted:

As always, thank you and the best investing to you!
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/PVX.jpg

spikefader
06-15-2004, 01:30 AM
...do you ever trade crazy, hyped up stocks like IPIX or do you prefer not to get so wild and dangerous?
Personally, I enjoy the unemotional rush? It's kinda like riding a Hog on the open roads with a bunch of hell raising, long haired, rejects from the local state penitentary and consuming large amounts of Wild Turkey while I'm doing it.
lol unemotional rush! You bet I trade 'em. But always with a game plan, and always stick to it. Wild and wooley stocks can bite pretty hard if you let them get away from you.
IPIX is a long right now, going into resistence on 3 channels from here to 20.00ish. But the channel long entry was 7 trading days ago. No chasing here. Been trading the eminis lately and not focusing on stocks as much. Speaking of which, you want an unemotional rush then trade ES. That takes a vulcan mentality for sure.

Websman
06-15-2004, 09:19 AM
IPIX is a long right now, going into resistence on 3 channels from here to 20.00ish. But the channel long entry was 7 trading days ago. No chasing here. Been trading the eminis lately and not focusing on stocks as much. Speaking of which, you want an unemotional rush then trade ES. That takes a vulcan mentality for sure.

Yes, it is very satisfying knowing that I got in IPIX at the right time. Now I'm just watching my bank account grow.

Eminis huh? Fascinating indeed. I'm not very familiar with those, but I will have to look into it.

I banged in to work today :shock: and it's raining, so I'm going to use today to study the markets and soak up all the knowledge I can.

Good trading all!

IamOrion
06-16-2004, 11:22 AM
Spike whats your take on ISSC.

TIA
Orion

spikefader
06-17-2004, 12:36 AM
Spike whats your take on ISSC.

TIA
Orion
Hey. Too late to do a chart but it looks bullish to me, but I'd be looking for a channel entry down around 18.00ish. Gotta turn in, I'm beat.

IIC
06-17-2004, 12:42 AM
Got some upward movement on VASC today with a little more vol....Lucked out on the GMAI announcement too.

spikefader
06-21-2004, 10:12 AM
QQQ update

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/QQQ_update.jpg

spikefader
06-21-2004, 10:20 AM
Spike whats your take on ISSC.

TIA
Orion
Here ya go.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ISSC.jpg

spikefader
06-21-2004, 10:43 AM
Got some upward movement on VASC today with a little more vol....Lucked out on the GMAI announcement too.VASC a tough channel read with that gap up back in March. Support is clearly at 10.00, and I'd look for a gap fill if 9.62 fails. Almost looks like a SHS formation, but it's not a very classic shape.

GMAI on a tear for ya :D

spikefader
06-21-2004, 11:07 AM
ELN short today at 21.98. EDIT: Stop 22.29 - above high of the channel signal day and give this a little wiggle room.
For those interested in options, I'd buy a couple of Aug 22.50s for 2.40
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_short_daily.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_short.jpg

IIC
06-21-2004, 11:26 PM
Got some upward movement on VASC today with a little more vol....Lucked out on the GMAI announcement too.VASC a tough channel read with that gap up back in March. Support is clearly at 10.00, and I'd look for a gap fill if 9.62 fails. Almost looks like a SHS formation, but it's not a very classic shape.

GMAI on a tear for ya :D

Well Spike...Ya win some and Ya lose some...As long as you make more on your winners than you lose on your losers...Not worried about VASC yet...But RELV???...Thinking(Wishful, I know)...that investors got confused with the REV news today...not likely.

But overall, my main concern is WITS right now...Shoulda had a better plan I guess...But nobody is perfect...THX for your take...I always like to hear it...Best, IIC

spikefader
06-22-2004, 08:48 AM
Well Spike...Ya win some and Ya lose some...As long as you make more on your winners than you lose on your losers...Not worried about VASC yet...But RELV???...Thinking(Wishful, I know)...that investors got confused with the REV news today...not likely.

But overall, my main concern is WITS right now...Shoulda had a better plan I guess...But nobody is perfect...THX for your take...I always like to hear it...Best, IIC
Ya got that right.
Ya, RELV lookin a bit skittish. Sets up for a long though, with stop under yesterday's low. Intraday perhaps cup with handle bullish?? WITS - didn't like over 15.00 did it! Disappointing that is. Was looking good with bullish break of the wedge then fell on it's face....
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/RELV_June22.jpg

equity488
06-22-2004, 09:04 AM
Spike what about Dhb and Nvec, thanks in advance!!!

evilarya
06-22-2004, 01:31 PM
New Marketocracy Picks are

MCIA TXI and DDS

Just wondering what everyones thoughts on these are

spikefader
06-22-2004, 05:51 PM
RELV: extreme caution advised on the long side. Sorry IIC :(

IIC
06-22-2004, 07:00 PM
RELV: extreme caution advised on the long side. Sorry IIC :(

Geez...How much further can it go?

But not too concerned...I am in light.

The only ones I am in heavy are WITS, LTON

Moderate in GMAI

The rest are all light...It's still $$$ though...so I'm not nonchalant about it...THX

Michaelk005
06-22-2004, 08:39 PM
Spike,, what do you think of ORCL right now. I bought today at $11.12 and hoping to sell in the next few days for $11.50, anythoughts, my charts say perfect time for a reversal.

Websman
06-22-2004, 09:37 PM
Spike what about Dhb and Nvec, thanks in advance!!!

DHB you say??? :shock:

HA HA HA!!! Yes, Websman is very happy with DHB! 8) I have made significant gains on DHB and IPIX. I will take a profit on IPIX tommorrow, but I will hold DHB for larger gains. DHB was up in strong volume today.

I'm guessing that Spike will say that the entry point on DHB is gone for now and to look for another channel entry. But...hey..what does Websman know? Spike may say something something totally different.

spikefader
06-23-2004, 04:43 PM
EEFT: Had posted in another thread about this one the other day and thought it worth a review.....
post 1 was a warning for longs, but the next day a nice channel entry got a nice move happening: http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/EEFT_long_warning.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/EEFT_case_study.jpg

kingofthehill
06-23-2004, 10:59 PM
..WELL TRADERS HAVE BEEN MAKING $$$ WITH ELN.. i still love this stock huge news coming.. read it at www.tixx.com/elan.htm

hey spike it looked real good for longs today

kingofthehill
06-24-2004, 09:49 AM
TAKE A LOOK eLAN IS TAKING OFF $22.84

tokyojoeskid
06-24-2004, 10:54 AM
Spike whats your take on SNDK, it looks like it bounced off of 20 which seemd to be a major resistance point. Do you think it will have trouble moving ahead.? Looks like its going to be a big volume day

TJK

kingofthehill
06-24-2004, 11:40 AM
I smell breakout .. FINALLY .. $23.26 ..day high so far $23.40


3 weeks till the FDA announces if ELAN get fast track approval for ANtegren

www.tixx.com/elan.htm

take a look..please due your own DD ..

spikefader
06-24-2004, 01:33 PM
my apologies for the lack of replies. been sick, so i'll get to them when i'm able..

ya king, congrats! eln overcoming the bearish technicals I saw - good for ya. this is why i keep stops tight - cuz when my entries are wrong they can turn out very wrong. i just take my medicine and move on 8)

IamOrion
06-24-2004, 09:00 PM
hey Spike
I started using Snag it and it works great. Workin on getting my site up and running. Thanks for the heads up on that great piece of software. Hope you are feeling better.

Orion

kingofthehill
06-25-2004, 11:03 AM
spike if you better, give me a read on ELN please...

jiesen
06-25-2004, 02:03 PM
Spike, can you give me a read on today's pop in XING? (If you have a chance)

Thanks!

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:01 PM
Spike what about Dhb and Nvec, thanks in advance!!!
OK, I'm back from a case of meningitis and a night in hospital :( that was no fun at all.

DHB:
well, this thread has followed DHB since mid April: http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_May_13.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_nice_move_up.jpg

Today's glance:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DHB_long.jpg

NVEC:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/NVEC.jpg

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:20 PM
New Marketocracy Picks are

MCIA TXI and DDS

Just wondering what everyones thoughts on these are
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/MCIA.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/TXI.jpg

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/DDS.jpg

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:28 PM
Spike,, what do you think of ORCL right now. I bought today at $11.12 and hoping to sell in the next few days for $11.50, anythoughts, my charts say perfect time for a reversal.
Well done. Your plan worked out. You still long? Channel turn up suggests it could head higher. There is also a nice base there. Only problem is it's approaching a resistence channel.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ORCL_long.jpg

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:30 PM
Spike what about Dhb and Nvec, thanks in advance!!!
I'm guessing that Spike will say that the entry point on DHB is gone for now and to look for another channel entry.
You're spot on Websman. The train's left the station for me.

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:31 PM
..WELL TRADERS HAVE BEEN MAKING $$$ WITH ELN.. i still love this stock huge news coming.. read it at www.tixx.com/elan.htm

hey spike it looked real good for longs today
Ya, ELN just refused to go down. Ignoring those short setups so it's looking good enough to have a break out, which I know will make you very happy :) I'll wait for a channel entry at 23ish though.

Oh, and the channel from the high at 24.09 just turned up! :D

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:41 PM
Spike whats your take on SNDK, it looks like it bounced off of 20 which seemd to be a major resistance point. Do you think it will have trouble moving ahead.? Looks like its going to be a big volume day

TJK
Perhaps you meant 20 seemed to be major support?? Anyway, I'd wait.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SNDK.jpg

Websman
06-26-2004, 12:43 PM
I hope you're feeling better Spike!

I would have sent you a book to read or something, but I couldn't figure out which room you were in. It's good to have you back!

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:43 PM
hey Spike
I started using Snag it and it works great. Workin on getting my site up and running. Thanks for the heads up on that great piece of software. Hope you are feeling better.

Orion
Yes, it's a good program!
Thanks. Still weak and sore but improving :D

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:52 PM
spike if you better, give me a read on ELN please...
Channel turn up on Friday is good for you. And channel wise, 42 is certainly a possibility..........just as 10 is :D That hole at the gap up through 10 is always on my mind.
But for now, I'm bullish on ELN and will wait for another channel entry.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_target1.jpg

spikefader
06-26-2004, 12:59 PM
Spike, can you give me a read on today's pop in XING? (If you have a chance)

Thanks!
Looking strong with a nice inverted SHS target there, and a channel break up, but of course as usual, I love those channel entry days. The patience is rewarded with the best r/r. If your risk tolerance is higher than mine, you could look to buy any intraday support, but I'll wait.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/XING.jpg

spikefader
06-26-2004, 01:01 PM
It's good to have you back!
Thanks. It's good to BE back.

jiesen
06-26-2004, 09:28 PM
Spike,

Thanks for the TA on XING. Much appreciated![/u]

tokyojoeskid
06-27-2004, 02:02 PM
For the TA on SNDK

Perhaps you meant 20 seemed to be major support?? Anyway, I'd wait.

yes i did mean support, just wrote to fast
glad you feelin better
TJK

equity488
06-28-2004, 03:40 AM
Hey spike question? I shorted 11000 shares of Dhb the past couple of days at a avg of 14.32, do I run for cover or remain patient and wait for a pullback? I have seen a ton of institutions buying, I was debating wether to buy or short. Upon researching the company on the internet I found out Brooks(their Ceo) was involved in a sec scandal in 1992, that is the sole reason why the Naz rejected him with flying colors. I bought Dhb @ 10.15 and sold it at 13.20 before so made a nice profit. But I felt it can't go much higher at these prices without more contracts espicially with a Ceo with less then better integrity and being listed on Amex where a ton of manipulation goes on. So Spike what would be your advice to me? I don't want to see it hit 20 and lose a ton of money here.

spikefader
06-28-2004, 10:54 AM
Hey spike question? I shorted 11000 shares of Dhb the past couple of days at a avg of 14.32, do I run for cover or remain patient and wait for a pullback? I have seen a ton of institutions buying, I was debating wether to buy or short. Upon researching the company on the internet I found out Brooks(their Ceo) was involved in a sec scandal in 1992, that is the sole reason why the Naz rejected him with flying colors. I bought Dhb @ 10.15 and sold it at 13.20 before so made a nice profit. But I felt it can't go much higher at these prices without more contracts espicially with a Ceo with less then better integrity and being listed on Amex where a ton of manipulation goes on. So Spike what would be your advice to me? I don't want to see it hit 20 and lose a ton of money here.
There is a time to be short DHB, but I'm afraid for me, now is not that time. If it were my money on the table, I'd take my medicine and run for cover. Here's the cons of holding:
1. You have a possible runaway gap that could take several months and a journey to 20 or higher before it fills
2. There is no clear 5 wave movement up, so that's a possibility.
3. The big gap up from below 10 was from a wedge - a signal that volatile move up could continue.
4. The channel from the recent 15.15 high has now turned up.
5. The upper channel from the low at 5.05 today sits at 18.88 and rising every day, so 20 is quite possible.
Good luck.

equity488
06-28-2004, 11:12 AM
Well I covered today Spike at 15.50 and it hurt like a Mofo, what prices do you suggest buying/shorting again?

spikefader
06-28-2004, 11:17 AM
Well I covered today Spike at 15.50 and it hurt like a Mofo, what prices do you suggest buying/shorting again?good job. yep - pain hurts :( I think you feel better to be out though. lower channel long is the play, so on the watch list. Short when I get a signal.

equity488
06-28-2004, 11:19 AM
Is 15.80 a good entry point?

IamOrion
06-28-2004, 11:59 AM
Spike whats your take on SFCC

Thanks orion

spikefader
06-28-2004, 12:56 PM
Is 15.80 a good entry point?good for neither long or short imo.

If you want perfect entries, or at least the chance for a perfect entry, with good risk/reward, wait for a channel entry setup. I fear that your emotions may be tempting you to get revenge on DHB now that it has bitten you. My advise is to cool off a few days, and patiently wait for your revenge.

There is a time I will like this stock long or short. Now isn't the time. While I'm bullish on it, based on previous charts and comments, my conditions to enter are very strict. Why? To reduce risk. Those opportunities for good r/r can take as short as 1 day or as long as 90 or more.

spikefader
06-28-2004, 01:26 PM
Spike whats your take on SFCC

Thanks orion
Has had a nice run. Perhaps at resistence and time to take some off the table if you're long. Buy a channel to reenter.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/SFCC.jpg

equity488
06-28-2004, 01:43 PM
Well I entered today at 15.70, set my stop though at 15.40. Worse case scenario I lose very little. Support seems to be basing around 15.50.

kingofthehill
06-28-2004, 01:49 PM
spike, would the 2 year old chart showing ELN going to $40.00 mean anything at this point or is that too long ago ??

Websman
06-28-2004, 04:49 PM
Well I covered today Spike at 15.50 and it hurt like a Mofo, what prices do you suggest buying/shorting again?

OFG hurt me like a MoFo so I feel your pain bro. :shock:

The market is a strange place. I've stayed long on DHB and am smiling while you went short and are probably not smiling. I hope you get revenge on DHB though. Just let me know so I can get out and take my profit before it tanks.

Have you looked at IPIX as a short canidate? It seems to be slowing down.

equity488
06-28-2004, 05:55 PM
Ipix is iffy to short, while they haven't made a cent yet they have potential. I wouldn't take either position. I went long on Dhb at 9-10 and sold in 13's. Then went it went to 14's I shorted while it pulled back to 13. I was stupid and didn't cover and it soared to 15.50. But right now with funds gobbling up shares and Ibd coverage to come I strongly beleive it will be 20-25 dollars by end of July. The only thing I am very iffy and skeptical about is David Brooks who has been in trouble with the sec in 1992. That's a guy I don't want running my company.

Websman
06-28-2004, 07:08 PM
But right now with funds gobbling up shares and Ibd coverage to come I strongly beleive it will be 20-25 dollars by end of July. The only thing I am very iffy and skeptical about is David Brooks who has been in trouble with the sec in 1992. That's a guy I don't want running my company.

True, this brooks guy sounds a little shady, but what I like about DHB is the fact that they have a great product with contracts in place. I'm sure a large number of CEO's are crooked. I think the only difference between him and others is that he got caught and they didn't. Kinda like Clinton compared to other Presidents. They probably banged their interns too... :shock:

spikefader
06-28-2004, 09:43 PM
spike, would the 2 year old chart showing ELN going to $40.00 mean anything at this point or is that too long ago ??History repeats itself, so I don't see why it couldn't race to 40.00 and beyond. On the other hand, the regression channel from the low at 1.03 back in Oct 02 has widened so much that it's flipped over in an amazing fashion, so it could just as fast go back to 10.00. As always, stocks never cease to amaze, so be prepared for the unexpected. That way you'll never be surprised. 8)

IIC
06-29-2004, 12:17 AM
Hi Spike...Do you follow Groups or Sectors???...I like the Retail Clothing/Shoes group right now...CLE, as I mentioned on my thread, has a nice tight base...Any thoughts???...THX

spikefader
06-29-2004, 09:48 AM
Spike whats your take on ISSC.

Here's the chart showing where it was when the question was asked: http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ISSC.jpg

Yesterday was the channel entry. So long today is wise, based on intraday pattern, or at S1, S2, or pivot point. My intraday chart showing it's opened higher and is just through R1, so look to buy a pullback. Stop underneath yesterday's low, or 16.75 if you like wider stops.
EDIT: Pivot is at 18.25 - a nice place to go long.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ISSC_long.jpg

spikefader
06-29-2004, 10:13 AM
LSCP short:
This stock was mentioned earlier in the thread. It's at another good short point now:

I took this short today at 27.60 (just above intraday pivot) and have a target of 20.00. Stop is 28.65 at this stage. Will tighten this up after today.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP_short2.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/LSCP_short_intra.jpg

IamOrion
06-29-2004, 10:35 AM
thanks for the updates spike.

spikefader
06-29-2004, 10:42 AM
Hi Spike...Do you follow Groups or Sectors???...I like the Retail Clothing/Shoes group right now...CLE, as I mentioned on my thread, has a nice tight base...Any thoughts???...THX
I will rarely glance at groups and sectors. Sometimes to get an idea of the bigger picture. But I don't do it regularly enough to say that it influences my trading much.
I like CLE on the long side from current levels. Recent channel entry and a nice target.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CLE_long.jpg
EDIT: Just fell through 21.72, so I suggesting waiting for a test of the lower channel again - at 21.50ish - it's pretty close now....

spikefader
06-29-2004, 01:07 PM
The perfect place to look for a double bottom. If LOD doesn't hold, look for that failure to be the head of SHS.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CLE_channel_long.jpg

spikefader
06-29-2004, 05:42 PM
And the plan worked :D Long at 21.45 with a stop tucked under LOD at 21.34.
Let's see what the market gives us. Targetting the upper daily channel around $30, while risking only 11 cents. Very nice r/r.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/CLE_the_plan_worked.jpg

IIC
06-29-2004, 06:39 PM
THX Spike

Websman
06-29-2004, 07:23 PM
Spike you are truly amazing! Good job on CLE. I hope it goes your way.
As for me, I'm doing very well with DHB. :D

I'm a little slow, but I'm starting to get a grasp on your techniques. My only problem right now is the fact that I have to work for a living until I build my trading account to a high enough level where I can take an early retirement and spend more time on trading. I would have like to have been retired before I reached 40, but being I'm about to turn 39, I don't think that's going to happen. :(

Oh well...I'll make it one day. 8)

spikefader
06-29-2004, 09:44 PM
THX SpikeNo, thank you for the heads up on a stock that was ripe for the picking. Hopefully this is one of those loose-soil gems....

IIC
06-30-2004, 01:22 AM
Spike you are truly amazing! Good job on CLE. I hope it goes your way.
As for me, I'm doing very well with DHB. :D

I'm a little slow, but I'm starting to get a grasp on your techniques. My only problem right now is the fact that I have to work for a living until I build my trading account to a high enough level where I can take an early retirement and spend more time on trading. I would have like to have been retired before I reached 40, but being I'm about to turn 39, I don't think that's going to happen. :(

Oh well...I'll make it one day. 8)

Webs...Heck, I'm 51 and I still have a job...IIC

IamOrion
06-30-2004, 05:26 PM
What is your take on Urban Outfitters. Looks like a great short opp.

spikefader
06-30-2004, 11:22 PM
What is your take on Urban Outfitters. Looks like a great short opp.Still looks pretty strong at first glance. Channel-wise, there's nothing pointing short yet. What a run it's had!

jiesen
07-01-2004, 03:24 AM
looking back at your XING chart, it appears your pink SHS line pretty much called the top of today's trade at around $15. (if I'm reading that chart right). Unfortunately for me, I was not paying attention at that particular moment when the ER was released, and I didn't exit at 15, which I very much would have liked to have done. I did lighten up some at 13.5, but unfortunately it fell back after that, partly because the AP changed their minds an hour after releasing a report saying "XING reports a profit" and instead replacing it with "XING reports a loss". those dorks, can't tell a profit from a loss, even!

At any rate, that was an amazing TA call on your part.

Websman
07-01-2004, 09:06 PM
Has anyone been watching TZOO? Incredible!!! :shock:

I've kept an eye on it but never got in. This one scares me more than the sound of soap dropping at the local prison.

IIC
07-01-2004, 10:12 PM
Has anyone been watching TZOO? Incredible!!! :shock:

I've kept an eye on it but never got in. This one scares me more than the sound of soap dropping at the local prison.

TZOO is a Daytraders dream IMO...I never BOT...But, I've been asking around the last week..."Has anyone ever actually used TZOO"?...No one I can find.

kingofthehill
07-02-2004, 08:11 AM
Spike ELN was up yesterday when all Biotech got killed including its Antegren drug partner BIIB, the short interest was 20million at last month

I think the shorts are covering ahead of the drugs approval and more news events..what does your chart say ?

Websman
07-02-2004, 06:10 PM
HAH!!!
I knew TZOO was doomed to go down...but only a nickle. :shock:
I'm still confused.

And what about TASR? What is this, another Microsoft???

Hey but everythings ok. DHB climbed again. Looks like it might hit the IBD 100. I don't know if thats good or not, but we'll see.

Thats Websman's take on the market today.

Have a great Holiday weekend...uh I almost forgot...this is an international board...Karel, you have a great weekend too!

spikefader
07-02-2004, 07:06 PM
looking back at your XING chart, it appears your pink SHS line pretty much called the top of today's trade at around $15. (if I'm reading that chart right). Unfortunately for me, I was not paying attention at that particular moment when the ER was released, and I didn't exit at 15, which I very much would have liked to have done. I did lighten up some at 13.5, but unfortunately it fell back after that, partly because the AP changed their minds an hour after releasing a report saying "XING reports a profit" and instead replacing it with "XING reports a loss". those dorks, can't tell a profit from a loss, even!

At any rate, that was an amazing TA call on your part.LOL Just checked out the chart. She really spiked up after that news didn't she! ....then a consistent sell-off since then. A good example of SHS targets being good resistence though. Thanks for the feedback.