View Full Version : URBN sold! ==> 50 consecutive winners for $$$MR. MARKET$$

02-05-2004, 11:29 AM
Today I sold URBN at 41.77. I had bought it at 35.95 on November 18, 2003. That’s a 16% gain in only 11 weeks. Can you do that? You? YOU? YOU??!!! Over the same period, the S&P 500 was only up 9%. Once again… I make the market my girlfriend. Once again… I am superior. That makes 50 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better. Who else has 50 consecutive profitable trades of 15% or better? Tell me! Tell me now???

This is very good news. This means that there will be a Valentines Day pick coming for all those who love $$$MR. MARKET$$$. If you want to hear my next pick, you must speak your opinion on $$$MR. MARKET$$$ for all to hear.

I live in the open seas.
I am a mammal.
I am not a fish.
I have baleen instead of teeth.
I like to eat plankton and krill.
I am HUGE, in fact, I am the biggest animal in all of the world.
I am $$$MR. MARKET$$$



Posted: 18 Nov 2003 07:49 pm Post subject: URBN ==> The $$$MR. MARKET$$$ end of soccer season pick

I’ve got hos
I’ve got hos
In different area codes (area)
Area codes (codes)
In different area codes (area)
Area codes (codes)

You know that Ludacris may be onto something here. If you’re gonna have hos in different area codes, wouldn’t it be proper for all those hos to be dressing mighty right?

Today I bought URBN (Urban Outfitters) at 35.95. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 41.65. Here is why I like URBN:

URBN stock is up 320% over the last 52 weeks. It’s r^2 for the same period is a steady 0.82. It’s r^2 for the last 6 months is a remarkable 0.92. Great great price momentum!

Now let’s turn to the ANALysts. Presently there are 12 analyst ratings on URBN, only six of which are "buys" and one of which is an outright "sell." Thus, there is upgrade potential, if and when URBN shatters their earnings numbers again. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ believes this will be a merry merry Christmas, too.

URBN primarily operates retail specialty stores under the the Urban Outfitters, Anthropologie and Free People names. Urban Outfitters has street prep and retro styles from the 80’s (I love the 80’s). Anthropologie sells sweaters but they can’t spell Anthropology correctly. Urban Outfitters is geared toward co-eds and those recently out of college, while Anthropologie targets affluent customers in their 30s (for the most part, focus on family, home and career). Anthropologie tailors its merchandise and inviting store environment to sophisticated and contemporary women aged 30 to 45. I guess that’s opposed to fat drunk and stupid men, like $$$MR. MARKET$$$, in the same age range.

How do I know about this Urban Outfitters? The company opened its first store in Philadelphia in 1970, near the University of Pennsylvania. Let’s go Quakers! Stores are located in large metropolitan areas, selected university communities, and enclosed malls, and accommodate a customer propensity not only to shop but to congregate with peers.

URBN's strategy is to provide unified store environments that establish emotional bonds with the customer. I really think they are trying to establish a bond with the customer’s wallet. Guess what? It’s working. URBN 3rd quarter earnings were well above analysts expectations ($0.35 vs. 0.2 including a 17% comp store increase. Net sales advanced by +29% to $142.3 million, fueled by a +23% increase in the number of stores in operation, a +17% rise in total company same-store sales, and a +48% jump in direct-to-consumer sales. The November comps are already exceeding their plan. All indications are that this is going to be a HUGE HUGE HUGE X-mas season for retailers. Expensive restaurants are getting booked, holiday parties are up. People have money to spend…Yippeee!

The stock market was crying because Wal-Mart recently missed their numbers. I got news for you. Wal-Mart missed their numbers because people aren’t buying cheap stuff now. They are shopping in the specialty boutiques. This trend will continue. URBN stores are set up to look like individual shops..not franchises. The seven Urban Outfitter mall stores are kicking major league butt. Expect to see more of these, as a result. The company initially chose to ignore malls for urban areas near universities and other schools. The reason: Its target customers weren't your typical mall rats. It's since changed its tune. That's in part because it's easier to open stores in malls than elsewhere.

URBN should expect to drive 22% store growth into 2005 as the Anthro and Urban stores have not come near their market saturation point yet. URBN has seen its earnings grow 20% or more for nine straight quarters. Nine!

Anthropologie and Urban also sell home accessories - rugs, candles and other knickknacks. Makes a great party gift! This protects against the cyclical nature of clothes, as home goods tend to be less dependent on fashion preferences. Home furnishings range from furniture, rugs, lighting and antiques to table top items, bedding and gifts. Lava lamps…hey man did you steal my Pink Floyd album?

Urban opened three locations last quarter, now they have 98. They will keep growing well into the 300’s and the new stores will boost operating margins. It plans to open about 13 to 15 new stores in the remainder of FY 04. New stores will boost operating margins as excited buyers foolishly overpay at these new stores so they can walk out with those big bags that say “Anthropologie” on them.

Anthropologie is rocking with a 12% same-store gain. URBN tries to make the shopping environment fun with novelty items and toys to play with. It entertains the customer and keeps them in the store longer. Trust me, the only thing that would keep $$$MR. MARKET$$$ in one of these stores is beer and nude models.

Don’t forget about those X-mas catalogs. Circulation of the Anthropologie catalog rose to 2.3 million from 1.8 million in the past quarter. Ok OK…I do like looking at the catalog models a little….ok..a lot.
Alright… enough of the marketing mumbo jumbo. Let’s look at some hardcore financials. Revenues have grown at a rate of 25% per year for the last 5 years. This is not a carnival, URBN is here to stay. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ expects them to do 160 million next quarter which should translate to quarterly earnings of $0.42/share. At the high P/E this specialty retailer commands, that would yield a stock price of $43.09, which exceeds my sell target. Don’t get excited yet…..$$$MR. MARKET$$$ thinks FY 2005 should generate earnings of $1.60/share which will propel the stock price to $59.20/share.

URBN has no long term debt. They’ve been able to grow their business with internal cash flows, the cheapest source of rocket fuel. Return on assets has grown to 11.6% while ROE is a very solid 14.8%

The boss is being modest and is keeping his cards close to the vest. "Our Retail brands and Direct businesses produced truly
outstanding results in the third quarter," said Richard A. Hayne,
Chairman and President. "Sales were strong in all regions where we
operate stores; and Direct sales, particularly over the internet,
continued their meteoric growth. Most gratifying, however, was
delivering 16.5% operating margins. This is the highest quarterly rate
in the last seven years."

SO what does this all mean? It boils down to a giant bet. $$$MR. MARKET$$$ has the feel that X-mas will be really big for specialty retailers. People are spending money again and it’s only one month until Christmas. Soon they will spend all their monies. Gimmeee monies.

I am HUGE! Bring me your finest meats and cheeses.

- $$$MR. MARKET$$$

02-05-2004, 12:19 PM
Two to honor #50

The ladies gathered 'round to view
His 15% compounded
The Huge One did it 50 times
They dropped their jaws, astounded

If he's a sage or guru
of that I cannot say
but Market's an URBN legend
on Big Apple's streets today


02-05-2004, 12:59 PM
Yet another winner, this time the big #50...

Wow. You are so HUGE, when you go the beach, you're the only one who gets a tan. (apologies to Wierd Al)

Can you make it another 50? I can't wait to see that, as I'm sure everyone else here is thinking, too.

Much meat and cheese to you, $$MM!

02-05-2004, 02:01 PM
VEry nice, a solid straight line winner, now i sit back and wait for BEL to become 51 or 52.

02-05-2004, 03:03 PM
"No more floozies only high priced whores" MM allows me to live like a king! Mo picks.

02-05-2004, 08:28 PM


Oh yeah ... HUGE.

02-06-2004, 08:40 AM
Hmm, let's take a look at these (http://www.cetacea.org/whales.htm), to see if we can find $$$MrMarket$$$ there. The blue whale has the wrong color, but it is the biggest, and a blow of 9 meter high sounds about right. :)


02-07-2004, 08:06 PM
I knew this one would be a winner when Mr. Market quoted ludacris. Simply Brilliant.