PCLN ==> The Arbor Day Winner

[mrmarket]

Since earnings will be released after close today, for full disclosure, I wanted everyone to know I just purchased Priceline - PCLN at 244.44. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 281.48.

My write up will be issued after the earnings release tonight.

[mrmarket]

http://www.trekweb.com/images/stories/4a5180865903e-1.jpg

[jiesen]

http://www.trekweb.com/images/stories/4a5180865903e-1.jpg
so are you saying that the Priceline PR people are prostitutes?

[jiesen]

what the heck, I feel lucky today... I'm in at 245. Now let's see what those PR whores have to say.

[billyjoe]

Since earnings will be released after close today, for full disclosure, I wanted everyone to know I just purchased Priceline - PCLN at 244.44. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 281.48.

My write up will be issued after the earnings release tonight.

Mr.Market,
A couple hours ago I was thinking the same thing. You wouldn't want to wait and be kicking yourself on this one.

-------------billy

[yosberk]

If my AH quotes are correct we are down over 10% to 222.00:mad:

[skiracer]

If my AH quotes are correct we are down over 10% to 222.00:mad:

i like this pick and stock. the only thing i dont like is the price. you got to put up a qtr. mil. to own 1000 shares. so im looking at the options for a play tomorrow after the dust clears. i dont know what triggered the after hours selloff because the report in general was way over and above everyones expectations. their forward guidance was lower than expected but the report was excellent. i think it is just a case of selling into strength in the AH. but it was a big risk buying before earnings and this is the proof of that right now. waiting until after the earnings report or tomorrow might have provided a much cheaper entry with either the options or the stock.

[skiracer]

Mr.Market,
A couple hours ago I was thinking the same thing. You wouldn't want to wait and be kicking yourself on this one.

-------------billy

and that is precisely the problem billyjoe. you dont know whether the earnings report is going to be what was expected or not. and when they do meet expectations a high number of times they tank afterwards anyway for whatever reasons. this was a great report. beat all expectations and yet still dropped over 20 + pts. after a great report. so what did it get you for being in before the report. nothing on the positive side and it was a gamble to start with. the sad part is that the stock will eventually end up meeting mm's criteria even after todays AH selloff. tomorrow will provide a nicer entry, especially with the options.

[mrmarket]

and that is precisely the problem billyjoe. you dont know whether the earnings report is going to be what was expected or not. and when they do meet expectations a high number of times they tank afterwards anyway for whatever reasons. this was a great report. beat all expectations and yet still dropped over 20 + pts. after a great report. so what did it get you for being in before the report. nothing on the positive side and it was a gamble to start with. the sad part is that the stock will eventually end up meeting mm's criteria even after todays AH selloff. tomorrow will provide a nicer entry, especially with the options.


Ski...it's like being around a craps tables with all your best friends, drinking Johnny Walker Blue and smoking a Partegas as long as your arm. Then some idiot throws a 7 and kills your mojo. No problem...keep rolling them. This is a great company. Write up to follow:

[skiracer]

Ski...it's like being around a craps tables with all your best friends, drinking Johnny Walker Blue and smoking a Partegas as long as your arm. Then some idiot throws a 7 and kills your mojo. No problem...keep rolling them. This is a great company. Write up to follow:

its been on my watchlist for a while now and i was waiting for the earnings report to come out before i got in. i know the feeling of wanting to make sure you dont miss out on getting in before a great earnings report sends it higher than what you could have gotten in at before the report. but it seems these reports dont mean a thing anymore and that they drop as often after a great report as not. i am looking at the july 10 $250 and $260 calls tomorrow a.m. the $250's closed today at $23.30 up $10.10 and the $260's closed today at $18.70 up $8.30. but tomorrow morning they both should be alot cheaper. i think the stock and the options go up from here. i dont understand what could have prompted this AH selloff today other than profit taking into todays strength.

[mrmarket]

For those of you who think William Shatner maxed out when he played James T. Kirk on Star Trek, think again. How could you have possibly forgotten TJ Hooker?:

http://www.trekweb.com/images/stories/4a5180865903e-1.jpg

And I am sure by now you are crediting your good health to Promise Margarine:

http://static-resources.goodguide.com/images/entities/all/226891.jpg

But most importantly, because of Bill Shatner, we all save money on hotels and airfares.

http://emol.org/travel/priceline/images/hdr_negotiator.jpg

That’s right. Never pay full price for a hotel. NEVER! Just go to Priceline and you can always get 20% off of a hotel room. Priceline is awesome. Not only is Priceline awesome, Priceline stock is even awesomer.

Today I bought PCLN at 244.44. I will sell it in 4 to 6 weeks at 281.48. Here’s why I like PCLN:

First of all, look at this chart. It is ridiculous. Why is it going up so much? It’s going up because this company makes tons of money. Oodles and oodles of noodles.

http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/p/pcln?lang=en-US&region=US

Even though the stock has gone through the roof, its PE is still only 24.63. That means its’ cheap. Tonight the company reported earnings of $53.9 million, or $1.06 per share, on $584.4 million in revenue for the first three months of the year. That compares with earnings of $25 million, or 53 cents per share, on $462.1 million in revenue in the first quarter of last year. Excluding special items, Priceline posted earnings of $1.70 per share for the latest quarter. ANAL-ysts had expected the company to report a profit of $1.66 per share excluding items on $597.2 million in revenue

Now PCLN got crushed in after hours trading. Why? Because of the stupid volcano, that’s why. The volcano grounded lots of flights. If people don’t travel, they don’t use Priceline. Wow…how brilliant Sherlock. Priceline management said they weren’t going to hit their previous 2Q numbers. So of course everyone sold off after hours and $$$MR. MARKET$$$ gets stuck holding the bag. Boo hoo for $$$MR. MARKET$$$??? Of course not…unless this volcano keeps blowing its top for the end of time..which it won’t. What an amazing buying opportunity for all! Remember the movie 300? Someone has to take the arrows..might as well be me.

With the U.S. economy hurting, consumers are flocking to the discount Web site in droves, helping Priceline run rings around its rivals. Also,the shift in Europe away from booking travel with traditional agents and using online still has quite a ways to go, and Priceline has the lead in that market. They still don’t know how to cap that volcano though. Most of Priceline’s sales come from outside the US. (I didn’t know that, did you?).

The slowing U.S. economy and chaos in the airline industry have helped rather than hurt Priceline. Consumers are looking for more bargains. At the same time, airlines and hotels have more unsold inventory that can be unloaded in Priceline's blind bargain offerings that let consumers offer a price without selecting a brand. I use Priceline whenever I have to book a room for someone. What do I care where they stay, as long as I get a room cheap on my dime. About 80% of Priceline's gross profit comes from hotel bookings, most of it generated in Europe through its Booking.com property.

Something else you didn’t know:

· Last quarter earnings were up 54% from the same quarter a year earlier. And earnings growth has accelerated in recent quarters, with each quarter coming in higher than the previous quarter.

· Sales growth was 33% last quarter.

· The stock's return on equity is 42%.


Priceline thinks that travelers will find that summer airfares could be as much as 25% more expensive than last year, on average, and that's before factoring in extra fees for baggage, pillows, food and such. Travelers who want to save on air travel will need to plan ahead, be flexible and try different approaches to booking their trips.

Name Your Own Price continues to be a good choice for last-minute travelers who can't find an affordable fare. Despite the decrease in capacity, airlines are still flying with some empty seats, especially during off-peak travel days and times. Travelers are having success with last-minute priceline.com airline ticket bids that are up to 50% below the published fares. The deals are there. The key to finding the best deals is using Priceline's fare search tools to find the off-peak days and times where the bargains are likely to be. And the Priceline brand still resonates in the U.S., mainly from its pioneering name-your-own-price ticket service begun a decade ago when the firm was founded. Name-your-price continues to grow, especially in a weak economy as consumers look for ultra-low prices.

I only see blue skies ahead. Once that volcano is in the rear view mirror, we will be looking squarely at phenomenal earnings and revenue growth. ANAL-ysts projected EPS of $11.21 per share on revenues of 2.88 B. However, $$$MR. MARKET$$$ knows that PCLN will overcome this stumble and post earnings of $12.35/share on revenues of $2.95 billion. At the existing PE of 24.63, that projects to a share price of $304.18, which is well past my sale target.

Why trust me, listen to the boss:

The Company's worldwide businesses were able to maintain gross booking growth over 50% in the 1st quarter, powered by strong growth in hotel room nights, which increased 57% over last year," said Jeffery H. Boyd, priceline's President and CEO. "We believe all of our brands continued to gain share in hotel reservations during the quarter. International local currency bookings growth was 73%, representing continued high rates of transaction growth and stabilizing hotel room rates. Domestic growth at 16% came in at the high end of our range of guidance despite weaker results in opaque airline tickets and rental cars tied to reduced capacity in those markets."

Looking forward, Mr. Boyd said, "We are pleased with the strong growth reflected in our 2nd quarter guidance despite the impact of several negative external factors. The Iceland volcano caused widespread disruptions in air travel which resulted in a significant increase in hotel room cancellations for our Booking.com business. Civil unrest in Thailand has substantially impacted hotel room reservations in Thailand, which is a key market for Agoda and Booking.com's Asia business. Lastly, sovereign debt concerns in Europe have resulted in a significant decline in the value of the Euro as compared to the U.S. dollar which adversely impacts our financial results as expressed in U.S. dollars."

"These external factors notwithstanding, we are pleased to see some improvement in hotel occupancy and average daily rates which are hopefully signs of improved consumer demand as we enter the summer travel season. We continue to focus on growing our global hotel business by expanding into attractive geographic markets, adding hotel supply and integrating supply across our businesses. We also concentrate on effective marketing to build our brands while continuously improving our service to customers by adding content and innovative functionality. We believe the company's worldwide hotel platform is well-positioned to build share in global online hotel reservations."

Alright alright, like trying to sneak out a wet fart, I gambled and lost getting in before earnings, but before long, I will be drinking Trania and laughing like Clint Howard in the Corbemite Maneuver. I am HUGE!!!

$$$MR. MARKET$$$

[squarepusher]

here here to Mr. Market!
________
MERCEDES-BENZ AXOR (http://www.mercedes-wiki.com/wiki/Mercedes-Benz_Axor)

[riverbabe]

YES! Love that face! Love that body! :) MrM you're the best!

[mrmarket]

based on the way it moved off of its bottom today, it seems to me that this stock still wants to go up! Yay!!

[skiracer]

i was watching it all day today looking for an entry but never felt comfortable with the trade. looking at the call options. preferably the july 10 $220 at $17.98 or the july 10 $230 at $13.10. if the stock makes a move back to anywhere near recent highs the july 10 $230 is going to be a very valuable option. and this last earnings report was great. their guidance for the next qtr was lower but their business is so strong and their share is so large that i would expect them to raise guidance at some point as conditions get better globally, especially in europe. those two call options have taken big hits along with the stock itself. the stock is to strong fundamentally to stay down at these levels for to long and really is a great buying opportunity.

[skiracer]

I am still watching the stock look for a bottom. i'm amazed that it has gone down this far. I'll will post a weekly chart a little later on today. when this pops it is going to be an explosion but exercising patience and waiting for a bottom right now is the best anyone can do. what i dont like is that on a day where the market is up 110 pts this stock is down almost 10 pts.

[skiracer]

here's a weekly chart on PCLN and some thoughts on what i think may happen or could happen with the stock over the next day or two. as i stated i'm waiting for a bottom and an entry. where or when is the question. i think there will be an explosive move up to previous highs around MM's entry once that bottom is put in. the stock is just to sound fundamentally and to large a market share to be kept down. i think the time element is going to happen quickly when it does reverse so if one were looking at the July 10 $220 strike call, which is now bid $16 / asked $16.20, and has 65 days left to expiration the time element would be room enough for the stock to get back to previous highs and maybe even time for it to get to ernies target price or some part of the way. with the options make sure you leave early enough to maximize the gains before the time decay element begins to take effect.
I am very confident that PCLN will make it back to MM's entry point. that alone will make that call option appreciate quite nicely.

http://img442.imageshack.us/img442/7837/pcln.png (http://img442.imageshack.us/i/pcln.png/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

I just bought the July 10 $220 call @ $16.30 on PCLN

[mrmarket]

I just bought the July 10 $220 call @ $16.30 on PCLN


Yay..ski is on my side!

[skiracer]

Yay..ski is on my side!

i liked the pick from the start. but the entry point has nothing to do with my liking the pick. i would say that i have liked 85/90% of all your picks but some of the timing in my opinion has been off. but the proof is in the pudding and the results. you never know really. you think you know but then they do what they want to do anyway. i thought i had the bottom this afternoon for sure and made the option trade with the july 10 $220 calls at $16.30 and as soon as i made my entry they dropped to $15.20 or - 1.10. but i liked the way it held up this afternoon. it could have rolled over at the close but didnt and actually strengthened by the end of the day. i think we're going to be in good shape for the rest of the week. i think the selling may be exhausted. anyway i bought 4 contracts @$1630 a each for $6520 and im down $440 already. so please dont anyone rely on me.

[microchips]

i liked the pick from the start. but the entry point has nothing to do with my liking the pick. i would say that i have liked 85/90% of all your picks but some of the timing in my opinion has been off. but the proof is in the pudding and the results. you never know really. you think you know but then they do what they want to do anyway. i thought i had the bottom this afternoon for sure and made the option trade with the July 10 $220 calls at $16.30 and as soon as i made my entry they dropped to $15.20 or - 1.10. but i liked the way it held up this afternoon. it could have rolled over at the close but didn't and actually strengthened by the end of the day. i think we're going to be in good shape for the rest of the week. i think the selling may be exhausted. anyway i bought 4 contracts @$1630 a each for $6520 and I'm down $440 already. so please don't anyone rely on me.

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL:D

[skiracer]

Ski,
In the interest of Anglo/American relations and the special friendship between the two countries and people i decided to have a go at PCLN and got in today with July $220 calls for $1440 YEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA...LOL:D

i was looking for a better performance today chips but no cigar. thats a cheaper entry you got for yourself. good luck to us all.

[microchips]

Ski.
Down to $13.10 at the moment but AH they went to over $215 now back to original like you say should do well on them. Just to cheer everone up the winds around the UK and a lot of Europe are beginning to come from the South which means the airports are open and PCLN should start picking up more trade!!

[microchips]

Now AH $217.88 go baby go!!!!!!!!

[tiedyed1]

The PCLN fundamentals are solid and while environmental incidents (natural and man made) have screwed with our travel industry PCLN is the leader and with a significantly better sentiment than 6 months ago summer travel reservations are being made now.

Friday's have more than ever become the automatic pullback day as there are valid fears going into a weekend; however, I am taking the position that there are high probabilities of solutions and good news forthcoming rather than another catasrophic event.

With that said I picked up 2 contracts of PCLN July 220's for 10.50 this morning as the bottom is in or near and the next weeks is bound to have some positive pops to bring PCLN back to in the money levels.
Also, with PCLN volatility and not getting greedy, these Jul 220 may actually be a good place to trade and something to pop in and out of over the next 3-4 weeks.

Thank you Ernie for the great write up and as with most of your picks I am loving PCLN.

Keep On Keepin' On!

[tiedyed1]

uh, Jazz?
are you on the right board?

[mystiky]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

[skiracer]

looks like PCLN is now below that $200 - that's not a good sign. Also, its now below 200-day.

Also, Mr. Market, you should think about how the US$ strength is going to hurt their earnings in the exchange rate.

I dont think we see $250 for a very long time. Sorry to be a bad-news carrier.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[skiracer]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
__________________

[microchips]

I didnt get my price at the end of the day on the $6 bid for the 220's but tomorrow is another day. i thought $8 was a deal but i was wrong there again. what was a small play of 4 contracts originally has now risen to 12 contracts at an average of around $12.30.
__________________

Ski.
The 210 calls look pretty good at $9.20 if not a bit expensive. like i said earlier i think i will stop at 21 contracts cos i hate to see my account in the red although it shouldnt be for too long!!!!! As for holidays a lot of people i know are going long haul ie: USA,Mexico,Australia etc or staying home because Europe at the moment is a rip-off and is full of Russians and the old communist block tourists.

[mrmarket]

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

[skiracer]

Very cogent analysis Ski. I think (and hope) you are right.

thanks ernie. i hope so to. i've got a few sheckles in it now myself. but this recent correction has been as poignant as almost any that i have seen in such a short time frame. it's a great company with a solid business model, strong market share, and definitely a player in the travel realm. i would be surprised if it didnt come back. owning the stock and owning the call options are two different animals though and the time constraints / time decay with the calls will be a factor in my play. i thought today started out great and my optimisim was high but no cigar. i'm somewhat perplexed though and looking at it's charts i keep anticipating where i think it should put a bottom in at but i havent been right yet with it. im still optimistic and believe in the stock and the trade but this has been one hell of a correction in a short time frame.

[mystiky]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.

mystky,
it all depends on how you look at it. today the euro / usd closed at 1.22. which is about .25 cheaper than what it was a couple of weeks ago. so if it costs us less to buy the euro then we or anyone else gets more for their buck when they go to europe. do you think more europeans come to the US to visit or do more of the rest of the world go to visit european countries. and will priceline benefit more because of their business model, "name your own price and haggle over it", if the euro is cheaper or higher? the cheaper it is to go to europe for everyone worldwide should only increase priceline's bottom line. the more bang you get for your currency vs the euro should increase the number of those deciding to vacation and/or travel to europe and priceline will get their share of that increase in volume which should increase their bottom line. i dont think a decrease in value of the euro vs the usd is going to hurt priceline. european exporters will benefit in closer parity with the usd because it will be cheaper for them to export their goods and cheaper for others worldwide to buy their goods. but i dont see where a cheaper euro is going to hurt priceline's bottom line.

[mrmarket]

I urge you amd Ernie to read the following article.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-10/priceline-com-rally-is-at-risk-amid-crisis-in-greece-update3-.html

With all do respect (been on here for 5+ years), I think you guys are falling in love with a company and not the stock. Therefore, you have to understand what this big shift means.


Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

[skiracer]

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

mystky,
your article does bring out some significant points and i wont try to deny them because they are valid. but i do believe that this volcanic ash situation and the Greece bailout will pass as everything does and things will return to normal. personally i like to see the euro falling against the dollar. that alone will entice a larger number of people and businesses to visit Europe. a lower euro will provide more bang for your buck which is the fuel that feeds travelers and vacationers thinking about going there or anywhere for that matter. believe me when i say that i am not in love with Priceline or any other stock. like ernie, i believe this is a temporary situation that will provide alot of investors with a great entry point in the stock. to back up your feelings you should buy some puts or maybe short the stock itself. i would be interested in where you feel the bottom is.

[mystiky]

Gosh, I am really sorry to see this thing go lower and lower. I think that 160 is a possibility now, and if that doesn't hold, the 140 gap looks, gulp, realistic.

The markets are oversold now, and we could see a squeeze to the 195-200 level. But I doubt this see 220 anytime soon.

mystky,
i would be interested in where you feel the bottom is.

[skiracer]

Gosh, I am really sorry to see this thing go lower and lower. I think that 160 is a possibility now, and if that doesn't hold, the 140 gap looks, gulp, realistic.

The markets are oversold now, and we could see a squeeze to the 195-200 level. But I doubt this see 220 anytime soon.

you just might be right mystiky. i thought it would have put a bottom in way before this. i was looking at the weekly myself filling that gap at the 140 level could be given valid consideration. 160 is definitely plausible. i'm hoping not though. the S&P upgraded it yesterday with a target of 220. i think 220 is also feasible. whether its more feasible than 160 remains to be seen as it is just about in the middle of the two right now. there has been alot of selling and yesterday was a killer. maybe we'll get a bounce today.

[skiracer]

Well if you owned PCLN in any way except for puts or a short position you had to feel better for the way it finished the week. Back over $190 after being at $250.40 on May 11th and dropping to $176.77 on May 21st. That's $73.63 pts. or 29.4% in 10 days.
It closed today +$10.24 or up 5.6% but still down $58.90 or 23.5% from it's May 11 high. Here's a couple of charts on the recent action and what we might expect next week. The 1st chart is the 60 minute and it will give a pretty good picture of what has transpired from the high of $250.40 on May 11 to the low of $176.77 on May 21.

http://img163.imageshack.us/img163/7837/pcln.png (http://img163.imageshack.us/i/pcln.png/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

the 2nd chart is the weekly and I will point out some levels of resistance and support after today action and what could be expected from the technical aspects of the chart.

http://img404.imageshack.us/img404/5787/pclnweekly.png (http://img404.imageshack.us/i/pclnweekly.png/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

What to expect in the coming week? so much depends on the markets and how they track. if they track further upward the chances that PCLN will follow the market are good that it will move with the market. on the other hand if the markets continue down then expect PCLN to move down. Today was an exceptionally good day as it showed that there is still interest, belief, and strength in the stock itself. I was happy to see that the stock kept it's strength all day and didn't whipsaw up and down or sell off at the close. It closed at it's high of the day range which is a big positive for what might be expected next week. Alot is going to depend on the markets and what is going on in the world, especially Europe and Greece this coming week. The democrats,"financial reform" has passed and I think the selling from that is probably already built into the markets and stocks in general. Today was a good day built on investors, institutions, and hedge funds picking up some great bargains on good stocks. PCLN being one of them. It was a good day and offered reinforcement for those that believe there is some strength on stocks and the markets in general. I didn't buy any more calls but it would have been a good time to dabble with some more of those July 10 / $220 calls. There still might be time early Monday a.m.

[skiracer]

C is another stock that I am watching. I mentioned that I had bought June 10/$4 puts a couple of weeks ago on the premise that I thought the govt selloff would pull the price down and I was looking for a bottom somewhere around $3.25 / 3.50 range. Well it got as low at $3.54 yesterday and recouped .26 of that with today's bounce. Will it hold this level is another question? I think the govt selling will continue to effect the downward pressure and will bring the stock further down but if the markets continue with today's strength and move farther up this coming week it will slow the downward slide in C considerably and the govt might get all their shares out over that period of time which would then give a green light to get back on board. Realistically C is a major player and it is very cheap right now if you think about it. Initially I was looking for $3.50 for a long entry and I still think I will get that. Maybe not $3.25 though and $3.50 is really cheap for this stock so if I see $3.50 or so I wouldn't want to miss out on that price waiting for another .25 to $3.25. $3.50 would be real good. Here's a 60 min chart showing the action over the past 11 days and the continuing drop in price.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/1958/c60min.png (http://img59.imageshack.us/i/c60min.png/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

And here is the weekly showing some support and resistance points

http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5190/cweekly.png (http://img408.imageshack.us/i/cweekly.png/)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us (http://imageshack.us)

[dmk112]

ski, you didn't buy today??

[skiracer]

ski, you didn't buy today??

not yet dmk. i'm waiting to see what it does on monday. but i think the govt sellling is close to coming to and end. but i do like it to the long side once that selling is finished.

[microchips]

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.

[mrmarket]

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.


For a bonus pick, who can pronounce the name of the volcano?

[skiracer]

Ski.
Just watched a live feed on the Icelandic volcano seems its stopped dead in its tracks and is now steaming, good news really coz the last time it went off it went on for two years this means all flights and airports are back on again so with that and a bit of luck from the markets PCLN might just continue its trek back up. Hope you have all had a good w/end and the best to all for the coming week.
Nick.

this recent volcanic action was like a gigantic orgasim. now it's spent and just wants to have a smoke and lay back.

[mrmarket]

this recent volcanic action was like a gigantic orgasim. now it's spent and just wants to have a smoke and lay back.


LOL...feeling like a good cabernet right now myself.

[billyjoe]

I was just doing some research on Priceline and it turns out my memory does not serve me well. I remembered that Wm. Shatner was paid in company stock over 10 years ago for doing PCLN commercials and that PCLN reached over 450/share in 1999 but plummeted below 25 by Nov. 2001.
Wikipedia says Shatner sold out before the crash and made millions. I thought he held on and made his money back. He's probably got another fortune in the stock this time around.

---------------billy

[mrmarket]

Priceline.com Reports Financial Results for 2nd Quarter 2010




Press Release Source: Priceline.com Incorporated On Tuesday August 3, 2010, 4:01 pm
NORWALK, Conn., Aug. 3 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Priceline.com Incorporated (Nasdaq:PCLN (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=pcln) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=pcln)) today reported its financial results for the 2nd quarter 2010. Gross travel bookings for the 2nd quarter, which refers to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of all taxes and fees, of all travel services purchased by consumers, were $3.4 billion, an increase of 43.3% over a year ago.
Priceline.com had revenues in the 2nd quarter of $767.4 million, a 27.1% increase over a year ago. The Company's international operations contributed revenues in the 2nd quarter of $322.6 million, a 63.3% increase versus a year ago (approximately 68% on a local currency basis). Priceline.com's gross profit for the 2nd quarter was $445.3 million, a 45.9% increase from the prior year. The Company's international operations contributed gross profit in the 2nd quarter of $321.8 million, a 63.6% increase versus a year ago (approximately 68% growth on a local currency basis). The Company's operating income in the 2nd quarter 2010 was $173.2 million, a 58.3% increase from the prior year. Priceline.com had GAAP net income for the 2nd quarter of $115.0 million or $2.26 per diluted share, which compares to $67.0 million or $1.38 per diluted share in the same period a year ago.
Pro forma EBITDA for the 2nd quarter was $204.2 million, an increase of 61.8% over the prior year. Pro forma net income in the 2nd quarter was $158.2 million or $3.09 per diluted share, compared to $2.02 per share a year ago. First Call analyst consensus for the 2nd quarter 2010 was $2.65 per diluted share. The section below entitled "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" provides a definition and information about the use of pro forma financial measures in this press release and the attached financial and statistical supplement reconciles pro forma financial information with priceline.com's financial results under GAAP.
"Second quarter performance by the Priceline group of companies was once again driven by strong growth in our global hotel reservations, where we believe we gained market share for another quarter," said Jeffery H. Boyd, Priceline's President and CEO. "The group achieved a combined 48% year-over-year growth in hotel room nights booked. International gross travel bookings increased by 59% compared to prior year, or 67% on a local currency basis, due to increasing travel demand and an improvement in room rates. Domestic gross travel bookings grew by 20% driven by strong growth in hotel reservations. Growth in airline tickets and domestic rental car days was modest as our Name Your Own Price® airline and rental car services were hampered by reductions in capacity by suppliers."
"In May 2010, we acquired TravelJigsaw, a growing international car hire service, which has contributed $43.9 million of gross travel bookings in the 2nd quarter since acquisition. The TravelJigsaw business showed continued growth in the second quarter and we look forward to working with the team to build the business."
Looking forward, Mr. Boyd said, "We are pleased with the hotel transaction growth we are seeing worldwide, which we believe is being driven by geographic expansion, solid execution in promoting improved conversion on our websites and benefits of group-wide cooperation on integration initiatives. These factors, combined with growing Internet commerce and travel in some of our newer markets, resulted in resilience in the face of economic volatility and periodic travel disruptions, and we believe provide a foundation for growth over the long-term."
The Company also reiterated its expectation that gross travel bookings growth rates would progressively decline in the second half of 2010 as it compares to periods of relatively stronger business performance in the 2nd half of 2009.
Priceline.com said it was targeting the following for 3rd quarter 2010:


Year-over-year increase in total gross travel bookings of approximately 33% - 38%.
Year-over-year increase in international gross travel bookings of approximately 46% - 51% (an increase of approximately 57.5% - 62.5% on a local currency basis).
Year-over-year increase in domestic gross travel bookings of approximately 13%.
Year-over-year increase in revenue of approximately 29% - 34%.
Year-over-year increase in gross profit of approximately 43% - 48%.
Pro forma EBITDA of approximately $327 million to $337 million.
Pro forma net income of between $4.78 and $4.98 per diluted share.



Pro forma guidance for the 3rd quarter 2010:


excludes non-cash amortization expense of acquisition-related intangibles,
excludes non-cash stock-based compensation expense,
excludes non-cash interest expense and gains or losses on early debt extinguishment, if any, related to cash settled convertible debt,
excludes the impact, if any, of charges or benefits associated with judgments, rulings and/or settlements related to hotel occupancy tax proceedings,
excludes non-cash income tax expense and reflects the impact on income taxes of certain of the pro forma adjustments,
includes the additional impact of the pro forma adjustments described above on net income and loss attributable to noncontrolling interests,
includes the anti-dilutive impact of the "Conversion Spread Hedges" (see "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below) on diluted common shares outstanding related to outstanding convertible notes, and
includes the dilutive impact of additional shares of unvested restricted stock, restricted stock units and performance share units because pro forma net income has been adjusted to exclude stock-based compensation.



In addition, pro forma EBITDA excludes depreciation and amortization expense, interest income, interest expense, equity in income and loss of investees, net income and loss attributable to noncontrolling interest, income taxes and includes the impact of foreign currency transactions and other expenses.
When aggregated, the foregoing adjustments are expected to increase pro forma EBITDA over GAAP net income by approximately $121 million in the 3rd quarter 2010. In addition, the foregoing adjustments are expected to increase pro forma net income over GAAP net income by approximately $38 million in the 3rd quarter 2010. On a per share basis, the Company estimates GAAP net income of approximately $4.06 to $4.26 per diluted share for the 3rd quarter 2010.

[mystiky]

Maybe...but it's temporary. I will wait this one out.

Looks like PCLN may hit that $281+ sooner rather than later. But I still think that a revisit SPX to under 900 is coming. Taking profits in this market ain't a bad idea.

Good job to those whole held on. Even better to those who bought under $180.

[jiesen]

you're right, stiky, and I'm out at 278 with a 14% gain. Not gonna risk it for an extra buck or two... I'm very happy with 14%!

Thanks for the awesome pick, $$MM!!! You are HUUUUUUUUUGE!

[mystiky]

Congrads Ernie! I hope your 281.48 sell got filled :)