Stenzrob's specials

[mrmarket]

A little riskier than $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stocks but they have great fundamentals and are growth stories in the making with red-hot price momentum.

[stenzrob]

Thanks, Ernie. My very own little padded room.

For those who may not know, I use one simple screen to find stocks of small and micro-cap companies having solid fundamentals and high revenue growth that have relatively low price/sales ratio. Profitability not required, but progress toward profitability is required. P/E ratios are meaningless, I use price/sales ratio to judge valuation.

The screen only turns up candidates - I buy and sell from this list after doing additional research and chart study. I do not have a time limit or a sell target when I buy - I will cut losses if something changes, either with the company or the stock losing momentum. If the company continues to perform, and the stock keeps going up, I'll ride it for as long as I can.

As of today (9/26/03), the screen turns up 30 candidates.
The top 25 are:
GIGM, ESLR, SFCC, SYMM, GSIC, EWEB, ITXC, LENS, CRDN, FARO, CLZR, SWIR, GMAI, PRCP, QVDX, MSI, SNCI, EONC, CRIO, ECHO, MERX, TRCI, SMSC, CARN, ADEX

GIGM has been at the top of the list for a while now, and I bought it at $1.60 on August 5, 2003. Thom Calandra of cbs marketwatch was nice enough to feature it in his newsletter recently, and it is now jumping on heavy volume. I'm up about 75% on it in 6 weeks, but I believe it is not done yet, so I'm still in it. Calandra compared it to CHINA and SOHU.

HBIO was on the screen and I bought it for $6 about two weeks ago. It's up 25% since then, but it fell off the list when the price/sales ratio got above 3.0.

CRIO is another favorite of mine. Unlike some others, I trade it, trying to time the cycles as best I can. First bought it at $1.60 and rode for awhile, I have sold at $3.15, rebought at $3, sold again at $3.15, and just rebought it again today for $2.79.

I'm also currently long in QVDX, TRCI, and MTEX.


Since April 8, when I put some extra cash to work and starting using this method, my portfolio is up 146%, while the nasdaq is up 29.5%. That's an average of just under 4% a week.

[Anonymous]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

[Anonymous]

You might find it very hard to mimic stenzrob's picks, as he buys and sells the stocks quite often and it could be hard for you to replicate (keep up with the trades)---just a cautious note as the large number of ins and outs are very different from Ernie's.

[sbarclay8308]

Stenzrob.. The screening that you do, is it an automated process?

I am writing my MM Simulator in Micr$soft.Net for the WWW and
will be pulling data in to it .. Hoping to allow someone to come to
the site and tweak the parameters and get thier own picks..

Would you be interested in parting with your process so I could
do the same with it? By putting all the stock data into a local
database I feel I could make a few tools that everyone could
benefit from. I have the hardware/Disk storage and more CPU
capacity than NASA (pre 1987 of course)...

And yes for anyone reading this thread.. I am a geek.. :wink:

[stenzrob]

for sbarclay8308
- the screen is automated, but the buying and selling is not. I use msn moneycentral to screen for this:

Revenue Growth:
Rev Growth Qtr vs Qtr > 25%
Rev Growth Yr vs Yr = High As Possible

Momentum:
3 month Relative Strength > 85
Avg Daily Vol Last Month > 50,000
Avg Daily Vol Last Qtr > Avg Daily Vol Last Year

Valuation:
Price/Sales Ratio < 3.0

Financial Strength:
Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.3
Current Ratio > 1.3

Last Price > $1.5
Market Cap < $500M

Profitability is not a requirement, but I look at it.
Chart over the last 6 months should show strong advances on high volume and pullbacks on low volume, and it's on the pullbacks where I try to buy.

Today I bought more MTEX at $5.71 where a recent gap has filled.
It actually had fallen off my screen because the 3 month RSI is low, but everything else matches. 6 month and 1 year performance is very good.

[stenzrob]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

Well, bruce, let's look at last week, when the market was down.

My marketocracy fund that is not very actively managed, just a big basket of stocks from my screen, was down a lot more than the market.
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

Now, I know you have no reason to believe me, and I really don't care, but as you say, I trade a lot. That same week, my personal portfolio was essentially unchanged, because I bailed out of a few positions.

[mrmarket]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

Well, bruce, let's look at last week, when the market was down.

My marketocracy fund that is not very actively managed, just a big basket of stocks from my screen, was down a lot more than the market.
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

Now, I know you have no reason to believe me, and I really don't care, but as you say, I trade a lot. That same week, my personal portfolio was essentially unchanged, because I bailed out of a few positions.

Stenzrob,

Your picks are great.

As some of you may remember, I had my issues with your risky ideas, and it is true that very few of your picks will ever make my screens. But I think this is a function of having different investment objectives rather than different ideas of what makes a stock a good pick. Furthermore, I am seasoned enough to know that there is more than one way to make money in the market. While your style is a little too risky for my tastes, you've certainly won over some fans in the Mr. Market legion.

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob,

Your picks are great.

As some of you may remember, I had my issues with your risky ideas, and it is true that very few of your picks will ever make my screens. But I think this is a function of having different investment objectives rather than different ideas of what makes a stock a good pick. Furthermore, I am seasoned enough to know that there is more than one way to make money in the market. While your style is a little too risky for my tastes, you've certainly won over some fans in the Mr. Market legion.

Thanks, Ernie. Different strokes for different folks, man.

There is occasionally some overlap between our picks - FARO made your screen, but not the final five. SFCC was a pick of yours that was on my list, too. What is more likely, I believe and hope, and I guess we'll find out in the years to come, is that my picks show up on your >100% up for the year screen about 1 year after they show up on mine.

[the_daqman]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

why would someone use the same strategy thru changing market environments :?:

[investing_fool]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

[Anonymous]

Stenzrob-I do believe what you say, and in fact do respect your picks and your passion for stocks.

[Anonymous]

It was just a subject to raise (how the picks perform in different environments---it is like when magazines rate funds and how they perform in different type of markets (bull/bear). As to your question on why stick with the same strategy, that is a great subject to discuss---Warren Buffett for instance does not change styles and I would say in general some investors do and some don't---just matters what you are comfortable with IMHO. :o

[stenzrob]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

why would someone use the same strategy thru changing market environments :?:

dagman,
Since the screen looks for particular characteristics of both the company and the stock, the same strategy could indeed work through changing market environments. What would change is the industries in which those stocks are found.
It will be intersting to see how it works out as conditions change, as I have only been using this particular strategy since April.

$$$Mr Market$$$ was successful in finding momentum stocks through the downturn.

[mimo_100]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

I agree. I believe the next month or so could be pretty treacherous.
The good news is that stocks that remain strong, during this period, will be the ones to buy. The bad news, how does one identify them? :) :?:

Tim

[mrmarket]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

I agree. I believe the next month or so could be pretty treacherous.
The good news is that stocks that remain strong, during this period, will be the ones to buy. The bad news, how does one identify them? :) :?:

Tim


earnings earnings earnings

[Anonymous]

That is why I am 100% cash---I think this is treacherous indeed. Food for thought---if Ernie is so hot on earnings, earnings, earnings (actually I am too) why does he stubbornly keep stocks that disappoint on earnings after he picks a stock? Could it be for ego reasons (the "streak")? Hmmm... I personally prefer not to be so rigid on stock management as Ernesto, buying on selling based on fundamentals, which are not rigid, but change as time goes by IMHO.

Stenzrob-I personally would suggest starting your own website. I think you could get a good following. I would bet that over the last quarter for instance that just ended your portfolio has trounced Mr. Market's---in fact, and you do not have to say, I would bet you have very few if any of Mr. Market's picks in your portfolio, especially not ones like NARA and WSB. Think about it---I may disagree with some of your posts at times, but you have a flair for this kind of thing. :D

[stenzrob]

First, I respectfully disagree with Ernie about "earnings, earnings, earnings". A company can boost earnings while revenues stagnate by cutting costs, R&D costs for tech companies for example, but this does not bode well for the longer term. Revenue growth is key, IMO.

Second, about how to identify stocks that can remain strong in the face of a treacherous market, in addition to the revenue growth, one must pay attention to price & volume. Stocks that can do well in a down market will be identified by the fact that people (and institutions) are buying it. Duh. Higher volume on up days than on down days, advances past resistance levels on heavy volume followed by consolidation at that level on low volume while moving averages catch up. Trendlines remaining intact. These are the true "momentum" stocks.

Third, about the next month or so being treacherous. Maybe yes, maybe no. The nasdaq is flirting with it's 50 day average, and it could go either way. On the one hand, stocks have done well for the last quarter, so people getting their mutual fund statements might be tempted to put more money in, and the funds are required to maintain positions so they will be buying. On the other hand, currency ratios may cause foreign investors to pull out of the US market causing a drop in the US markets. Margin levels are currently at levels even higher than in early 2000, so the beginning of a drop could trigger an avalanche that would take virtually everything with it. I will stay nearly fully invested but watch very carefully for signs of impending doom.

Finally, about starting my own website. I don't think so ... such things only attract too many kooks and critics, obviously.

[thebign1]

Hi Stenzrob, I think your picks are great and I was wondering if you are still using Accel Rev + Price screen?

I have an online account with Sharebuilder and even though you can trade 4000 different stocks with them their are a lot of good ones that I can't buy. I've been looking into First Trade to open a second account.
Do you have any thoughts on this?

Thanks, Norm :D

[stenzrob]

Hi Stenzrob, I think your picks are great and I was wondering if you are still using Accel Rev + Price screen?

I have an online account with Sharebuilder and even though you can trade 4000 different stocks with them their are a lot of good ones that I can't buy. I've been looking into First Trade to open a second account.
Do you have any thoughts on this?

Thanks, Norm :D

Thanks, Norm. I have accounts at Schwab for an IRA and at ETrade. I have no opinion on those other brokers.

I am indeed still using Accel Rev + Price screen. I also look at some others, but that one seems to work quite well, at least when the overall market is doing well.

By the way, a friend who subscribes to it told me that GIGM was just highlighted by the Investment House newsletter, they see a cup & handle formation with a breakout point at 2.98. This on top of a recent recommendation by Thom Calandra's newsletter. Quite often, one or more of my picks will be highlighted by the IH newsletter a few weeks after I pick them and I'm already up 25% or more. (I'm currently up over 50% on GIGM) Some of my picks also show up some time later in $$$MM$$$'s dumps, like FARO has. I believe this is because my screen tend to pick up on accumulation even before the really juicy momentum gets going, probably because of my screens terms for increasing volume.

regards ... stenz

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, I also have a Schwab account for my Roth IRA but I don't do a lot of trading with it. I try to keep my long positions there. (FRED, NRI, NFB, etc....) But I like GIGM also, (#1 on your list) I just can't buy it with
Sharebuilder. Another thought would be to dump some of my EOP in my Schwab main account & grab a few thousand shares.

Regard, Norm 8)

[stenzrob]

Most of my holdings will be greatly affected by what the nasdaq does. They typically have betas much greater than 1.0. If the next few months are "treacherous", my portfolio could suffer a bit - but then, I have stops for that, not actually on the books at the broker, but in my tracking spreadsheet. (I put the stop prices in one cell, then use conditional formatting to have the current price turn color if it goes below the stop price.) From there, it's not automatic (but is very likely) that I would sell - it depends on volume.

The lower stops are based on either moving averages or drawing lines on a chart of the uptrends that give these stocks their high relative strength numbers. Unlike $$$MM$$$, who is indeed HUGE, I will sell the stock if it no longer fits the criteria - my criteria looks for revenue growth, I will sell if the growth stops or slows significantly; my criteria looks for momentum or accumulation, I will sell if the momentum turns.

As I posted earlier, the nasdaq could still go either way, and it is a losers game to try to predict it, IMO. If it gets above ~1850 with some volume and follow through, I would expect most of my stocks to take off like scalded apes, with some perhaps surging 50 to 100% in a matter of weeks. I would certainly not want to be 100% cash if that happens. On the other hand, if the nasdaq turns and heads back below it's 50 day average, again with some volume, my kind of stocks (barring any significant news) will head south in a hurry and those stops will cause me to sell; some newer positions at a loss, others at less profit than I'm sitting on now.

I have enjoyed 150% gain in my portfolio value in the last six months, not by sticking with losers that have lost their momentum and waiting a year and a half to get a 15% return out of it, or by sitting on cash, but by usually riding the winners however far they want to run, and usually cutting losses before they get large. Nobody can predict which way the market is going to go on any given day or week, and most stocks are affected by the overall market mood. Valuations and earnings can give you a warm, fuzzy feeling about a stock, but stock prices are not driven by these things alone, and nobody can predict how the market will react to anything. I have seen companies post great results, only to get sold off. I have seen stocks take off on no news and have no reaction to great or bad news. I like a warm, fuzzy feeling; that's why my screen produces candidates with strong revenue growth and reasonable valuation using one metric. But ultimately, it is buying in volume that drives a price up, and we, the retail outsiders, will never know exactly what may be behind it. We can only recognize and react to it.

I'm currently long CRIO, GIGM, HBIO, QVDX, and MTEX in my trading account and NTST, TRCI and HBIO in my IRA. I believe that any one of these could surge 50 to 100% in just a few weeks, or increase at about 5 to 10% a week for several months. HBIO is looking particularly ripe about now.

[stenzrob]

Posted on 10/1/03 -
That is why I am 100% cash--- :D

Since 10/1,
MTEX up 10% from $5.90 to $6.50
CRIO up 3% from $2.95 to $3.05
HBIO up 8% from $7.50 to $8.10

QVDX bouncing between $3.75 and $4.00
GIGM re-basing at $2.50

For the last six months, my portfolio has averaged about 4% return per week. Last week was no different. 100% cash? I don't think so.

!!!Stenz_ALERT!!!
- Watch HBIO for a possible breakout. The gap up day a few weeks ago closed at $8.12. A close above $8.12 on some decent volume in the next few days would be very bullish.

[stenzrob]

... NTST, TRCI and HBIO in my IRA...

TRCI >15% volume breakout today! Yeeha.
NTST +6.5% today, continuing after bounce off moving average
HBIO +5.1% today, moving toward breakout

[minni17]

Yo man you are HUUUUUUUUGE.

Bought some trci at 7.18 on Sept 3rd. Just saw it cross at 9.15 on triple average volume. That's 28% in 4 weeks and chart still looks awesome!

What kind of cheese goes with filet mignon?

Keep em coming

Minni

[stenzrob]

Yo man you are HUUUUUUUUGE.

Bought some trci at 7.18 on Sept 3rd. Just saw it cross at 9.15 on triple average volume. That's 28% in 4 weeks and chart still looks awesome!

What kind of cheese goes with filet mignon?

Keep em coming

Minni
Glad you liked it, minni.
I guess I've been living in the Philly area for too long now, I slice the filet mignon into thin slices, grill it with Velveeta and onions, slap it on a long roll and smother with ketchup.
I was born in North Tonawanda, but got over the roast beef on a Kaiser habit eventually.
28% in 4 weeks - what's that on an annualized basis, I wonder?

[ChrisZXWJ]

hey stenzrob...are you still holding on to TRCI after today's gain? I'm trying to talk myself into selling, but I can't quite do it. I'm up over 30% in the last few weeks myself. What do you think?

By the way, I'm living in North Tonawanda right now...I'm a grad student at UB.

Chris

[minni17]

WNY chapter...STENZROB fan club :D :D :D :D

I Live in Kenmore ( just south of North Tonawanda), graduated UB a long time ago, and still eat beef on weck.

Good to hear from ya guys in the area

Minni

[stenzrob]

hey stenzrob...are you still holding on to TRCI after today's gain? I'm trying to talk myself into selling, but I can't quite do it. I'm up over 30% in the last few weeks myself. What do you think?

By the way, I'm living in North Tonawanda right now...I'm a grad student at UB.

Chris
As I said in an earlier post, Chris, I'll ride as far as it wants to go, until something changes. I don't see why a "momentum" trader would sell when a stock breaks out on heavy volume. If I didn't already own it and had just found it because of the breakout, I might wait for a pullback to buy. But since I already have it, I'll just keep it until something changes - bad news or uptrend violated. Move up strongly, settle a bit on lower volume, repeat. I've seen stocks do this for months and months.

About NT - I lived on Jackson Ave near Payne Ave until age 5, then moved to the other end, on Christiana between Payne Ave and Christiana Park until age 11, then was dragged off to the Albany area. I never drove in NT, so I don't know my way around there very well. I really only knew my way from my house to the Elementary School and the comic book shop.

Good luck with your grad studies ... now stop hanging around here and do your homework, young man!

[ChrisZXWJ]

well, conveniently, I'm a MBA student with a concentration in finance...so I guess this could count as homework. I'm working with a few professors right now to try to "integrate" this whole process into an Excel spreadsheet, sort of like the one that was posted in the Yahoo group.

I'm not 100% confident in this whole momentum trading thing just yet. I do like how your model incorporates some fundamental valuation, which makes me more comfortable following a momentum trading strategy. So, I'm having a harder time determining when to sell using this method rather than just selling when I feel a stock is fully valued.

I'm not too familiar driving around the area yet myself. I just moved here at the start of the year after graduating from SUNY Albany. Small world, huh?

[tx_damnyankee0]

Sorry guys...no stock gems to talk about here are the moment.....just wishing for a beef on weck. I lived in Hamburg.....North Boston area. My best friend owns a restaurant in West Seneca.......I miss the area.

[carribean_mike]

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks
Mike, I don't remember telling you to sell. :cry:
Each stock has a characteristic trading pattern that it will usually follow in the absence of anything to disturb it. Look at how it's traded in the past to get a feel for how it might trade going forward. In the case of TRCI, it has several times now advanced like today to a new high on higher than average volume, followed through a little bit, then settled back on lower volume. Settled back to where? About to the previous high before the advance, somewhere between 20 day and 50 day moving average. So, one way to play it would be to assume it will do this again, and you might be able to pick it up for around $8 or so. Study a six month chart with some moving averages on it. Here's one -
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=trci,uu[l,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60]

But then, each time it does this "advance on high volume, retreat on low volume" routine, more shares get into the hands of either accumulating institutions or people like us who are looking for this kind of pattern, and/or the fundamentals that I also screen for, and don't part with their shares on every little 10% jump up, because we're looking for much bigger gains. This is what's behind my other strategy that I've posted about before, maybe it was on the old yahoo group. When I find a stock like this, it may be at that point in it's life where it will stop pulling back and just run, or [i]not. There's no good way to tell. So, I might buy half of what I'd really like to have of it. If it takes off arunnin', I'm in. If it pulls back on lighter volume as before, I buy the other half of what I wanted at wherever the support seems to be. If it pulls back on higher volume, though, or goes below where I think the bottom of the intermediate term uptrend is, I will sell it at a loss.

Good luck, however you decide to play it.

[stenzrob]

You might find it very hard to mimic stenzrob's picks, as he buys and sells the stocks quite often and it could be hard for you to replicate (keep up with the trades)---just a cautious note as the large number of ins and outs are very different from Ernie's.

I don't know where this typically inaccurate and distorted claim comes from, but it could be said that I am sometimes more active than the HUGE and sometimes HUGELY PATIENT $$$MR_MARKET$$$. I would think that it would be obvious to anyone but the mathematically challenged that if I have positions that are up 30%, 50% and more, that this would mean I am trading less often, not more.

TRUE: On 9/24 I sold CRIO at $3.13 before my profitable position went to the red, only to buy it back two days later for $2.79. And that was after I had sold a CRIO position that was up over 90% at $3.15, only to buy it back at $3. While it is true that it may have been difficult to follow all those trades to replicate my total performance, anyone who had bought CRIO when I recommended it would still be up over 50%. On 9/29, I added to my positions in MTEX and QVDX on dips. Several months ago, I owned GORX. Their report was disappointing and I sold at a loss, as both the revenue growth and the price momentum were now gone, without waiting another 18 months for it to recover. If this makes me a hyperactive trader, then so be it. (Six weeks later, GORX is still flatlined at the price where I sold it.)

FALSE: On the other hand; I bought NTST for just under $5 three and a half months ago. If Ernie had bought when I did, at $4.90 on June 19, he might have been out at >15% within four weeks. In fact, since this is up over 100% since I bought it, Ernie could have been in & out about five times with 15% gains. I bought GIGM for $1.60 eight weeks ago and have been holding it ever since. I would buy more here if I weren't already fully invested. Maybe somebody still in 100% cash could give investing a try for a change of pace.

In the last few years, an increasing amount of research has shown that PSYCHOLOGY and FINANCE go hand-in-hand in creating both unhealthy psyche and bad investment decisions.

Fear is the mindkiller.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris
No changes since Monday, in fact no changes since 9/29.

[stenzrob]

Revenue or earnings, which is more important?
According to Jim Jubak, it may depend on where in a business cycle you are.
Brief article at http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62865.asp
"After watching earnings climb steadily in the year's first two quarters as companies cut costs, Wall Street now wants to see signs that revenues are finally growing. The consensus among the pros is that the cost-cutting cycle is drawing to an end at most companies. Without strong revenue growth, businesses will be hard-pressed to produce the earnings gains that stocks need to keep rallying. Rising revenues flowing through these newly lean-and-mean cost structures is the only way that most companies can generate earnings growth that matches or exceeds current expectations of 20% growth for the third quarter."

[Garden Rose]

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR :D

[stenzrob]

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR :D
My laptop got wiped out by a security patch, and I lost all my cookies. Here's a screen that's probably slightly different than that earlier one, but the concept remains the same - solid financial condition, high revenue growth, plus momentum as indicated by high relative strength with increasing volume.
screen link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF234Z05L2000000000ZF116 Z04F118ZF115Z04L50000ZF307Z04L90ZF150Z04L20ZF151Z0 4L5ZF3Z04L1%2e3ZF137Z05L0%2e3ZF134Z04L1%2e3ZF138Z0 5L3Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice&Tickers=25)
*Stenzrob, I edited the link in your post, because it made the posts too wide for my screen. Karel

[stenzrob]

Bought LENS today for $11.56.

Sales are up 100% yr/yr and EPS up 80%. (stenz buying stock in a profitable company? wassup with that?)

Raised guidance in August - the stock jumped on heavy volume, pulled back to the 50 day and bounced. IMO, it is preparing to breakout again.

Recently profiled by Oberweis.

As always, do your own DD.

[mltlawn]

Closed today at $6.17. I'm up 98.3%. And still holding :D

[stenzrob]

GIGM was up over 17% today on very heavy volume, then continued to run after hours. Nobody knows why.

My GIGM position is up over 70% in two months, I have not bought anymore or sold any in all that time.

Three months ago, GIGM more than doubled in a week, then gave most of it back before beginning a more controlled climb. That's where I bought it, after the fallback. This is definitely one that falls into the "risky" category for some. It could double in a week, or suddenly drop 30%. I'm betting on the double, and even then the fun could be just beginning. Half of their business is very similar to NTES, SINA, SOHU, etc. Look at what they've done. The other half is record stores ("offline media" they call it), so it doesn't have the rich valuation of those others. They have no debt. What if they sold the slow growing record business and used the cash proceeds to expand their asian broadband services business? NTES went from 65 cents to 68 dollars in 18 months. Over 10,000% (though slightly less on an annualized basis). One or two stocks do that each year - those are the ones my screen is designed to look for: high revenue growth, low debt, low price/sales and early signs of momentum.

Good luck to all.

[stenzrob]

For anyone who might be quietly reading my monologue, but not posting ... I did not like the market action today. After the gap-up open, there was profit-taking all day on significant volume. So, I sold CRIO (again) for about a 6% profit from the last buy, and flipped LENS for a little under 4% gain since yesterday. I still like both of these stocks for the long term, and just hope to have the chance to buy them back again for less than I sold.

Holding MTEX, GIGM, QVDX, HBIO, NTST, and TRCI.

I've been tracking my total portfolio performance since April 8, and it's now up 164%, compared to 40.1% for the nasdaq, factor of 4.1x. I just fiddled around to get a more recent comparison, so I looked at it from 9/19, about a month ago when the nasdaq hit a short term peak - to now. Nasdaq up 1.73% peak to peak, stenz up 7.23% over the same period, or 4.175x. Then I looked at my minimally managed marketocracy fund of a big basket of stocks from my screen, and it has a beta of 4.09. The conclusion here could be that the screen does a good job of finding stocks with great potential, and my trading activity in my real account is adding very little to the total performance. I may also not be doing a very good job of selecting the very best picks from the screen.

Still workin' on it. I just started reading O'Neils book, maybe I'll learn something there. So far, he seems pretty obsessed with "earnings, earnings, earnings", but does say it has to be accompanied by revenue growth.

Regards ... stenz

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.
Yeah, Mike. I tweaked it a bit.
Try this, comments welcome -
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice&Ticker s=25

As for a sell strategy, my goal is to sell if either the momentum or the revenue growth falters. Shouldn't make any difference if that's at -15%, +15%, or +150%. I'm looking forward to reading what O'Neil says about it, but I think it's way out in Chapter 12.

[mrmarket]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

I think some of you guys need to be reminded that selling at 15% is not leaving anything on the table. By reinvesting, you compound your profits. After I sell at 15%, I buy a new stock which frequently goes up faster than the old one I just sold.

So what is being left on the table??? Don't fall in love with a stock. It doesn't know you own it.

[tx_damnyankee0]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.

[stenzrob]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.
yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

[mrmarket]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.
yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.
Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

[mrmarket]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.
Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

Kevin Kennedy (Coolcat895) and I go back almost 10 years to the AOL Poolhall stock discussion board. There are probably some lurkers out there now who are alumni of that fun board. Coolcat and I have had a number of interesting discussions online and we still keep in touch. I'm a big fan of his as he is a big fan of mine.

I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).

[Karel]

... I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).Yeah, right! This is a very complicated question, and you would also need to define how you are going to time your entry. <shudder>And then the backtesting.</shudder> Generally, MrMarket uses a very simple and laid back strategy. Stock picking is almost mechanical, and the rest is just: buy, set your target, and smile at the development of your portfolio. Occasionally you check what is causing the laggards to lag, and, when necessary, you clean them out.

The very simplicity and the low elbow grease requirements strongly suggest that this method could give better results when you work it harder. The most obvious way is to time your entries, but how? It is nice to note that when MrMarket buys an oversold stock it has a fair chance of becoming a real screamer, but waiting for a MrMarket stock to become oversold might very well get you in at a higher point (when the retracement wasn't quite due and not deep enough to get below his entry). Perhaps stenzrob could look at the price he buys his stocks and the price they had when he put them on his watch list. The case might be better there, because of the crazy volatility of quite a few of his stocks, but checking up is always a good thing.

And working MrMarket's method harder will always include a trade-off. Even if you set your aim so low as a 1% drop under MrMarket's entry, this will make you lose some of the real screamers. More ambitious targets will weed out more stocks. Your profit per stock might be greater, but total profit might drop.

I still have not seen a convincing argument for any change in MrMarket's strategy. Only, it is so very likely that it is possible to change it profitably. :)

Regards,

Karel

[mohitm73]

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

[stenzrob]

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo
You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

[the_daqman]

stenzrob Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2003 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Stenz

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

mohitm73 wrote:
Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:

[stenzrob]

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:
I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

[RCARTER528]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.

[stenzrob]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.
Everyone's goal is "beating the market".
Even better, and far more difficult, is "beating $$$MR_MARKET$$".
Good luck.

Hyperactive trading?
By selling CRIO and LENS positions for ~5% gains yesterday due to signs of weakness in the general market, my portfolio (which usually has as beta of about 4.0) was down 1.44% on a day when the nasdaq was down 1.94%. If I had held those positions, my portfolio would have been down 2.67%.

I also sold half of my NTST position for $11.97 today, for a 137% gain since buying it on a breakout in June. This stock was not on my screen when I bought it, it was just a sentimental favorite.

[the_daqman]

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:
I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

stenz

understood. i only posted bc i thought that the two of you might have been thinking of different screen versions or something.

ns2 :oops:

[tokyojoeskid]

stenz what you think about CYD, i ran it through my screener came up tops along with gigm. Lookslike it has a huge potential for growth in china as china builds infrastructure. They build diesel engines. trading at a 52 week high big qtrly rev growth, and as china prepares for the olympics in 08(more transportation) i can see no downfall in forward looking growth opportunities. more info here. . .
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031014/newamer_1.html

[stenzrob]

stenz what you think about CYD, i ran it through my screener came up tops along with gigm. Lookslike it has a huge potential for growth in china as china builds infrastructure. They build diesel engines. trading at a 52 week high big qtrly rev growth, and as china prepares for the olympics in 08(more transportation) i can see no downfall in forward looking growth opportunities. more info here. . .
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031014/newamer_1.html
CYD looks very good, IMO. I have no good excuse why I haven't already bought some.

[stenzrob]

You like earnings?
Check NTST's report today.
EPS up 667% over prior year quarter.
Margins up, backlog at record levels.

I sold half of my NTST position last week, will be looking for a good opportunity to get it back.

[vgbansal]

StenzRob,
what about CRIO?????any comments..................????
Earnings due on Oct'28....

[stenzrob]

Dude,
what about CRIO?????any comments..................????
Earnings dude on Oct'28....
You may not have noticed that I sold CRIO last week because I was getting nervous about the market in general, and CRIO wasn't getting any traction above $3. I posted it somewhere around here. I know I posted on the Yahoo CRIO board.

CRIO does look a little weak right now, but the volume is still much lower than it has been on many strong up days over the past six months.

Maybe the market isn't sure what to expect from earnings. I don't know what's driving it, we retail guys never do know what's going on until it's too late.

It dipped a month ago a lot like it is now ... do you feel lucky?

One final note - if a sudden 10% bump in the road really upsets you instead of getting you excited, you might reconsider following my picks. Having sold my CRIO a few days before a 10% drop, I'm having to hold myself back to wait for a sign of strength before jumping back in. I was down about 20% in my original position in MTEX when I more than doubled my position in it on a dip like this. The total position is now approaching breakeven.

Good luck.

[vgbansal]

Thanks..
I did bought MTEX at 7.09 and doubled it when at 6.00

[minni17]

Hey Stenz,

SFCC ( a MM pick from July) gets in on your screen.
What do ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz,

SFCC ( a MM pick from July) gets in on your screen.
What do ya think?

Minni
Minni,
Thanks for asking.
I like SFCC, and said so when it was a MM pick.
It's another of those on my screen that I like that I just don't have enough slots to buy them all.
Too many great stocks!

Of the ones I'm holding now (MTEX, NTST, HBIO, QVDX, GIGM, TRCI), I like QVDX's chances to explode after earnings report if they reach a certain threshold. I have posted about this on the Yahoo QVDX board, check it out. I'm currently down about 11% on my QVDX holdings, so this is your chance to "beat the stenz".

regards ... stenz

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, Do you have any "guesstimate's" if they will meet or beat their earnings on Wednesday?

I'm got in at $4.00 and I have a sell order for $4.75. Maybe it should be higher?

Regards, Norm :D

[stenzrob]

Hello Stenz, Do you have any "guesstimate's" if they will meet or beat their earnings on Wednesday?

I'm got in at $4.00 and I have a sell order for $4.75. Maybe it should be higher?

Regards, Norm :D
Norm,
I have no guesstimates, only a target that I'd like them to hit.

When they blew away the estimates in July, the stock gapped up and ran 28% in one day, then advanced another 25% in the month after that. I'm not saying this is going to happen again, only that it happened before.

A sell order already entered for a stock you're holding?
Apparently, you're not familiar with my philosophy.
I will let it run until it doesn't want to run anymore. I won't beat a dead horse, but I also won't jump off of a galloping one, I'll wait until it slows to a trot.

If you must set a target, set it at least at the bottom of where it was when it dropped off last July - $5.50. I would expect some resistance there, from long term holders who will finally have a chance to cash in.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qvdx,uu[h,a]daolyiay[de][pc50!a5.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

[stenzrob]

TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031022/225598_1.html

Stock is responding appropriately.

[minni17]

:lol: :D :lol: :D

HEY STENZ,

You are HUUUUGE.
I got on board at 7.00. Just saw a trade cross at 10.00
Up 43% in 6 weeks. Annualized that's about a gazillion%.
Incredible....I'll be having philly cheese steak to celebrate tonite with a pre-dinner toast to the stenz!

Thanx guy you and ernie are too huge for words

Minni

[stenzrob]

:lol: :D :lol: :D

HEY STENZ,

You are HUUUUGE.
I got on board at 7.00. Just saw a trade cross at 10.00
Up 43% in 6 weeks. Annualized that's about a gazillion%.
Incredible....I'll be having philly cheese steak to celebrate tonite with a pre-dinner toast to the stenz!

Thanx guy you and ernie are too huge for words

Minni
I'm very glad you're enjoying it, minni.
QVDX reports tonight. I'm hoping for something similar.
I may indulge in a bit of cheesesteak myself!

regards ... stenz

[Jason Monette]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?

[stenzrob]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?
No.
The screen may have been tweaked since you got it.
Try this.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice36&Ti ckers=25

[Jason Monette]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?
No.
The screen may have been tweaked since you got it.
Try this.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice36&Ti ckers=25

Ok, as you can see, I am new to this forum. Could you go over a step by step what you do afer you do the screen? What are you buy signals, sell signlas, etc?

[Garden Rose]

Know you made a wonderful gain on Stenzrob recommendation :?: , but on what stock???? Thanks.

[Gatorper]

stenzrob[/b]]TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

I sold TRCI for more than 15% gain. In at 8.85 on Oct 16 and out at 10.25 just this afternoon.

[stenzrob]

stenzrob[/b]]TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

I sold TRCI for more than 15% gain. In at 8.85 on Oct 16 and out at 10.25 just this afternoon.
Maybe we should start posting "I will sell in 4 to 6 DAYS for a 15% gain"
Minni is in TRCI, too, I believe.

QVDX just beat estimates with record revenue in report just issued.
Could be a lot of fun tomorrow. Bid inching up after hours.

[mrmarket]

I think your string of amazing successes has scared away all the market psychologists.

[stenzrob]

I think your string of amazing successes has scared away all the market psychologists.
That could just be the best possible reward, besides being a few steps closer to a very comfortable retirement.

Did you happen to see the QVDX report? I really like phrases like "We are outperforming our competitors and gaining market share." Guidance provided should lead to another round of estimate and price target increases.

I'm anticipating brief resistance at $6 on the way to $7.50. Could be another one to two month double here.

[Jason Monette]

not gonna answer my question?

[stenzrob]

not gonna answer my question?
Jason,
Your question was pretty open-ended, and I'm not getting paid as an investment counselor here. I saw your question "tell me everything you do, step-by-step" and didn't have time to really do it justice at any time during the last 6 hours or so since you asked it. Why don't we approach it this way ... go back and read a few of my earlier posts where I describe what I do with the candidates from the screen. If you have specific questions about something, ask and I will do my best to answer and/or direct you to a site where you can learn some great stuff. As we go along, I will comment from time-to-time on market conditions or on specific changes I'm making in my portfolio, and we'll all learn together about what works well and what doesn't.

Maybe you didn't intend it this way, but I found "not gonna answer my question?" to be petulant, demanding and disrespectful.

[Jason Monette]

I didn't mean like that at all. Sorry....

I just didn't know if you saw it or not.

[stenzrob]

No problem, Jason.
Start at the second post in this thread. That should give you a good general idea of what I do with the screen results.
Good luck.

regards ... stenz

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, HBIO and GIGM haven't be acting nicely the last week or so. I think that you are still holding them. Unfortunately my basis isn't as low as yours. If your basis was near current price - would you be adding or selling.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, HBIO and GIGM haven't be acting nicely the last week or so. I think that you are still holding them. Unfortunately my basis isn't as low as yours. If your basis was near current price - would you be adding or selling.
Mike,
I am still holding both of those. It's very important to look at price together with volume. Pullbacks on low volume are sometimes buying (or adding) opportunities. It's a real tightrope walk and even a bit of a contradiction to buy stocks that are going up when they pullback. Buy strong stocks in a moment of weakness.

I've actually been expecting GIGM to pullback to around 2.75. I would be adding here if I didn't just buy a boatload of QVDX yesterday.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid= 1600640698&mid=23806

HBIO's pullback has also been on very low volume compared to the advances. I would give it a little while to digest the advance of a month ago before deciding whether to add or sell. At this point it's a "strong hold".

[stenzrob]

Mike asked about GIGM and HBIO, but the one I was holding that has been making me nervous is MTEX.

I established a position at $7.30 just before it dropped some more, and more than doubled my position at $5.71. It bounced, but not on much volume, and there's been very little interest since then.

I sold all my MTEX today for $6.06, for a 17% loss on the original position and a 6% gain on the second buy.

I am TINY !!!

[stenzrob]

Why I like QVDX a lot -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600604485&tid=xcar&sid= 1600604485&mid=8901

[mrmarket]

Are any of these guys optionable??

[tokyojoeskid]

Hey Stenz quick question
own both of these stocks, obviously one just made a run i am in around 4(qvdx), gigm i believe is also about to take off. Got a little extra money on the side but will only be adding to one of these postions. what you think i should add to? can see great potential in both stocks. just bought some jan06 calls for utsi, what a great company unbelievable unfair market valuation, seems to be artificially held down, cant explain it but two years from now the kinks will be worked out, and i will look back with a big smile :lol: well back to the question at hand you think gigm or qvdx??
thanks for your opion in advance
tjk

[stenzrob]

Between GIGM and QVDX, I like QVDX more, but the answer in your situation depends on how much you already have in each. I also don't know how many total positions you have - I like to diversify into 4 to 6 positions. Sometimes the one I like the most isn't the one that takes off. Even in narrowing down from my screen to my actual positions, I see stocks from my screen that I didn't buy doing very well.

Ernie, I don't know if any of these are optionable. Typically, the small (micro) caps I mess with are not.

Currently long QVDX (overweight), NTST, GIGM, HBIO, TRCI.

[tokyojoeskid]

currentyl sndk(overweight since 15), long o6 utsi calls, nutr, hbio, gigm and qvdx. added to my qvdx postion so now gigm and qvdx are equal. got a little cas h on the side, may put the rest in gigm or run my screener and find a new one. was in cyd thought it had a climax top so i got out of it.
adios
tjk

[stenzrob]

currentyl sndk(overweight since 15), long o6 utsi calls, nutr, hbio, gigm and qvdx. added to my qvdx postion so now gigm and qvdx are equal. got a little cas h on the side, may put the rest in gigm or run my screener and find a new one. was in cyd thought it had a climax top so i got out of it.
adios
tjk
Those are some excellent positions there, tjk.
Care to share your screener criteria?
How did you identify sndk when it was $15?

[tokyojoeskid]

ive been in and out of sndk since 1999. thought was a great stock then but i didnt want to fall in love with it. they were so huge into flash memory and just looking around when i was in highschool with kids wanting to buy digital cameras and the possiblities of use of flash in cell phones then it happening. When i saw sndk trading near its book value along with the huge growth potential and its already huge growth, i had to take a big postion especially with the TA in it starting to turn around. my dad and i both bought in and he went extra with some calls. i also sold some puts with 20 strike jan 04's that are now worthless (.05) were 10 bucks at the time. its been good to me and Eli is the man. about my screener ill get back to you i gots to get to class Texas A and M maybe ill learn something.
tjk

[stenzrob]

Another quarterly report coming up -
First NTST on 10/20 (they since shot themselves in the foot with a warrant repricing) which ran from $12 to $13.50 in the five minutes following the surprise report
Then there was TRCI on 10/22, jumped from $8.50 to over $10 after theirs.
QVDX also on 10/22, gapped up and ran like crazy.

I'm still holding HBIO, too. They just announced they'll be reporting on 10/28. Will this be another 20% pop, or will my luck run out? Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As The Portfolio Turns"

Many more big gains, and I'll have to start shopping for a tin ceiling for my kitchen.

[tokyojoeskid]

wasnt with the stock before last earnings announcement, does it usually behave like this before earnings or is something leaking out, volume isnt off the charts or anything so im still holding on.
tjk

[stenzrob]

wasnt with the stock before last earnings announcement, does it usually behave like this before earnings or is something leaking out, volume isnt off the charts or anything so im still holding on.
tjk
I wasn't with HBIO before the previous earnings reports, so I don't know if this is normal or not. Trying to decide if this is a buying opportunity on a test of the 50 day and filling of the gap from a month ago and therefore healthy for the chart going forward, or a wake-up call. I was in it at $6, so I can still afford to hold. As you say, volume isn't unusually high.

[stenzrob]

I decided to take a chance on this being an opportunity to buy HBIO, and bought some more for $7. Fingers and toes crossed.

[Anonymous]

Have stayed out of it stenzrob as I realized I was hogging things up with the bec1wnbc66 posts (actually finally established a new moniker), but just wanted to say how impressed I have been with your success and hope you continue to do well with HBIO etc.

[stenzrob]

I decided to take a chance on this being an opportunity to buy HBIO, and bought some more for $7. Fingers and toes crossed.
Sold the new (bought yesterday for $7.00) HBIO position for $7.70; 10% in one day annualized is about 2.3 gazillion %. Still holding the original HBIO positions in both my trading account and IRA, just couldn't resist the quick profit.

CRIO (I'm currently out of it) is showing some interesting activity today.

[stenzrob]

CRIO just came out with their report. Revenue growth has slowed, this will drop it off my screen when the numbers finally get through to msn. If you're in it on my recommendation, I recommend getting back out.

Still waiting for HBIO's report.

GIGM popped nicely today, in keeping with the chart pattern, but is down after hours. The NTES report is dragging the sector down.

[tokyojoeskid]

well the results are in and from a first glance im definately impressed. Took some guts on your buy at 7 bucks but i definately wanted to do the same thing just had one problem, my pockets arent deep enough YET aarg. mrmarkets last two picks are looking pretty sweet, give the hairy man props for them. rev on hbio was over the 20 mil you hoped for, coming in at 21.1 million 65% rev growth, eps was .03 compared to .00.

on an off topic note Utsi, it is so unbelievable how they come in with great results but the market shuns them over and over. telling them they need to diversify more, but if they were purely a chinese company like a nte, sohu sina ect. their stock price would be through the roof. what gives my patience, i think not, im long with the jan 06 calls woot.

finally gigm blasts off but ntes has to shadow their explosion, three bucks plus would be a great new base.

last and final, never even knew about oneil's books reading both of them now, i really enjoy these things, my friends think im weird but i can live with that. whos going to prosper? those who have the smarts and the disipline.
peace

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, if you were buying a new stock tommorrow from the latest MSN screen what would you pick? I kinda like SWIR.

[stenzrob]

tokyojoe,
Thanks very much for your observations. I've been pretty lucky lately, guessing that QVDX and HBIO would report very good results and guidance and that CRIO would not. I enjoyed O'Neill's books and gained some additional perspective, but like anything, I don't follow it to the letter, just add it to the stew.

carribean_mike,
I haven't yet gone back to look at the complete list again, so this answer is not as well-informed as it should be. I am pleased with recent results and guidance by QVDX and HBIO, so I like those. I continue to hold GIGM, the best results there can be had by using TA. I also like LENS, despite having sold it a little while ago - considering getting back in. I was in SWIR from $8 to $12 from the end of August to early September, and I actually do not like the way the chart looks right now.

regards ... joisey_stenz

[stenzrob]

Somebody must be listening to me!

I said I liked LENS, and all of a sudden it breaks out to a new high on heavy volume. Who did that? Was it you, caribbean_mike? Or maybe it was minni... I picked some up for $12.88, more than the $12 that I had sold it for two weeks ago.

TRCI, which I am still holding, and several here sold for 15% profits already, also broke out to a new high on heavy volume today. My TRCI position is now up over 80% in two months.

[stenzrob]

HBIO featured on Motley Fool column:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/031029/1067439480_1.html

Some good historical background for anyone interested.

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, I didn't think that my buying would create such a buying panic :)

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenz, what does your current portfolio look like?

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, what does your current portfolio look like?
Trading portfolio, in order of position size:
QVDX, QVDX, LENS, NTST, HBIO, GIGM

IRA portfolio (usually a slower turnover), in order of size:
TRCI, HBIO, NTST

I am thinking seriously about switching some stuff around to eliminate the overlap between the two accounts.

Sure wish I still had the FARO that I bought at $6 and sold at $10.

[stenzrob]

Trading portfolio, in order of position size:
QVDX, QVDX, LENS, NTST, HBIO, GIGM

IRA portfolio (usually a slower turnover), in order of size:
TRCI, HBIO, NTST

I am thinking seriously about switching some stuff around to eliminate the overlap between the two accounts.

Just sold HBIO out of trading account for $7.57. That is a 25% profit since buying for $6.02 on 9/15, plus the 10% return on the extra intraday-dip buy at $7 that was sold the next day at $7.70. My trading account was 120% invested, anyway, so something had to go.

Still holding HBIO in my IRA, also bought at $6.

[MEA_1956]

Somebody must be listening to me!

I said I liked LENS, and all of a sudden it breaks out to a new high on heavy volume. Who did that? Was it you, caribbean_mike? Or maybe it was minni... I picked some up for $12.88, more than the $12 that I had sold it for two weeks ago.

TRCI, which I am still holding, and several here sold for 15% profits already, also broke out to a new high on heavy volume today. My TRCI position is now up over 80% in two months.
T R C I I HEAR YOU NOW BABY, THIS LITTLE PUMPKIN IS READY TO POP. Theirs room in life for a whole month of this type of a brake out. Just Say the WORD and we are ready to pull the plug. @ the present time we are at 62% . Thank you, And feed me more>>>>> MEA

[minni17]

OK Stenz,

TRCI has skyrocketed. You are HUGE.

Ran your screen, did some dd and came up with LCOR.
However stock has had a pretty good three day run and looks pricey.
They will report earnings on wed. Could be a popper ala TRCI and QVDX.
Have you considered this one? You seem to be chart reader...would you wait for apullback given recent up action?
What do ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Minni,
Please, don't call me HUGE. There is only one HUGE one here.

I haven't had the chance to look closely at LCOR, but I saw that it was on the screen. Medical IT, like NTST that I've been following for over a year, QVDX, and some other nice ones. A lot of these are running due to increased revenues. I guess the hospitals have money to spend.

As I've suggested before, if you really like it, you might buy some now and some more if it pulls back.

I just added a small chunk of API to my IRA, without waiting for a pullback.

[jay_why_dee]

((I just added a small chunk of API to my IRA, without waiting for a pullback.))

Hi Mr. Stenzrob, I don't understand why do you like this stock? I've never owned it but it appears to burn cash faster than it earns it. Maybe you have a gut feeling?

How do you feel about SIRI? They can burn some big bucks. Could be a 4 bagger by the end of next year......arf,arf

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why do you like this stock? I've never owned it but it appears to burn cash faster than it earns it. Maybe you have a gut feeling?

Why do I like API?
Revenue up 71% qtr/qtr, and they were profitable last qtr despite making acquisitions and closing/integrating manufacturing facilities. No debt.

From their latest report, "Although we retained the costs of operating the Garland facility for a portion of the quarter, we were successful in generating operating profit due to increased revenues and operating efficiencies related to the consolidation. Looking ahead, this consolidation will further lower our operating and SG&A costs as a percent of sales, to ultimately improve profitability and enhance shareholder value." This suggests earnings will grow rapidly in quarters ahead if revenues continue to grow.

He continued, "Our backlog is continuing to grow, due in part to increased demand in our military and medical segments, and we remain confident that we will achieve our objective of 40% growth in sales for the year." Well, there's the continued revenue growth, then.

On the technical side, recently broke out to new 3 year high, escaping a long-running trading range on the highest daily volume since somewhere around the the middle of 2000.

This could drop right back off again and be difficult to exit if interest wanes, but could double, triple or more in a hurry if interest continues. Institutional ownership is less than 10%, so there's still a lot of accumulation possible.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Just got rid of the rest of my CRIO and all of MTEX last week...so now I only have GIGM NENG QVDX and TRCI. API scares me a bit, but I might blindly jump in with a chunk of the profits some of your picks have already made me. Have any other bits of genius to share? At this pace, I won't have to take out any more loans for the rest of grad school :lol:

[stenzrob]

Just got rid of the rest of my CRIO and all of MTEX last week...so now I only have GIGM NENG QVDX and TRCI. API scares me a bit, but I might blindly jump in with a chunk of the profits some of your picks have already made me. Have any other bits of genius to share? At this pace, I won't have to take out any more loans for the rest of grad school :lol:
Looks like you're doing just fine Chris. Of the four that you're still holding, I would be most nervous about NENG. I'm liking LENS for a nice run after their earnings report whenever they get around to it. I just started looking at NICE, which just turned up on the screen.

As a warning example, MSI is still on the screen and somebody even asked about it here a few weeks ago(I never really liked it) but their report was not good (growth slowed considerably) and it dropped pretty hard today. This can happen to any stock, of course, and it happened to me with GORX a while ago. I got out of CRIO based on technicals just before their recent report and it happened to them. Hope you got out of it without much damage.

[Gatorper]

Stenzrob: Why do I like API?

API bid/ask too close... tighter than the space btwn my teeth
:shock:

[ChrisZXWJ]

Actually, I sold half of CRIO the day of earnings when it ran up big, and I sold the other half a day after earnings came out after it rebounded a little bit. So, the only damange was the profit I lost. Not too bad.

NICE is a bit too expensive for me price wise. I know, I know, it doesn't make a difference whether a stock rises from 3 to 6 or 20 to 40, but there's a psychological thing in it for me.

This may be a dumb question, but isn't a tight bid-ask usually a good thing?

[stenzrob]

API bid/ask too close... tighter than the space btwn my teeth
I'm with Chris - what's your problem with that? I dislike stocks where the bid/ask is larger than the space between my teeth.

[drchrislee]

Hey Stenz, have you considered putting up a table of your positions, price and date you got in on, etc, like the Huge one has on his home page? I think both of your methods are great, and I'd like to spend some time analyzing yours a bit further, but it's tough to compile your movements when they're spread over a bunch of threads.

Thanks

[Risky]

Setting up a page with what you're doing would be very benificial Stenz. :wink:
Are you still looking at Crio around $2 range?
Deidra

[IamOrion]

Stenz,
Have you purchased any more QVDX since it's recent pullback under $5.00. Is your outlook still good on this one. I never got in but watch it. Thinking of getting in here under 5.

Thanks,
Orion

[stenzrob]

1. I'd like to summarize my trades and positions like MM has, just haven't gotten around to it.
2. CRIO - I'm not interested in CRIO at $2. I only think there may be technical support for it there.
3. QVDX - Haven't added to my position, yet. I'll have to look into it further. As you all should know, I'm interested in revenue growth and stock price momentum. RWAV revenue has been declining, the first question is why and is it something that can be fixed by QVDX. The second question is what the market reaction to it will be, and not just today. Whatever I might think of the business prospects of the acquisition doesn't matter if instiuitions and other big investors don't like it.

[tokyojoeskid]

might want to add a postion in utsi
finally getting some recognition it deserves
http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/stockscreen/index.cfm?story=20031028intro&afl=yahoo

[drchrislee]

I've taken the liberty of compiling all the trades you've mentioned in this thread and put them in a table. Excuse the weird html code and the funny values - it's an export from excel.

I've tried to treat every separate buy/sell as a separate item, even if they are in the same security. Feel free to tweak/use/modify/post whatever.

http://www.clpayne.com/sheet004.html

[stenzrob]

I've taken the liberty of compiling all the trades you've mentioned in this thread and put them in a table. Excuse the weird html code and the funny values - it's an export from excel.

I've tried to treat every separate buy/sell as a separate item, even if they are in the same security. Feel free to tweak/use/modify/post whatever.

http://www.clpayne.com/sheet004.html
Wow. That was a fair amount of research you did into my trades.
For completeness, perhaps not every trade was posted:

QVDX
Bought at $4.53 on 9/4/03, sold for $5.47 on 10/31/03
Bought more at $3.68 on 9/29/03, sold for $5.47 on 10/31/03
Bought (a lot) more at $4.16 on 10/22/03, still open

NTST
Bought (a lot) at $4.90 on 6/20/03, sold half of it for $11.98 on 10/17/03
Bought that half back at $10.83 on 10/24/03, still open
Bought some also at $12.86 on 10/20/03, still open

TRCI
Bought (a lot) at $6 on 8/26/03
Sold some for $7.95 on 9/19/03
Sold some for $14 on 10/30/03
Still holding some

API
Bought at $2.08 on 10/31/03, still open

HBIO
In addition to the trades you have, I still have some left bought at $6 on 9/15/03

MTEX
The ill-timed lot I paid $7.30 for was on 9/17/03

CRIO
Bought at $1.60 on 6/27/03, sold at $3.15 on 9/3/03
Bought at $3.00 on 9/8/03, sold at $3.13 on 9/24/03
Bought at $2.79 on 9/26/03, sold at $2.98 on 10/15/03

If you decide to take the time to fill in those blanks, I'll try to be more clear about my trades in the future. Or, you could e-mail me the spreadsheet, I'm at yahoo dot com.

[drchrislee]

I've updated the sheet with the new info Stenz provided, and for the benefit of all, have posted that as well.

http://www.clpayne.com/stocks2.xls

[stenzrob]

TRCI retrace/pullback on lower volume than the advance.
The lot that I sold for $14, I just now bought back for $12.32.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some SCKT for $3.79.
This was on my screen a while ago, but fell off as the price settled in and the 3 month RSI fell off. It broke out on record volume yesterday, and is showing some follow through today.

[tokyojoeskid]

UTSI

this stock is going to be beyond HUGE, buying more tomm at open even though that is not when i like too purchase stocks. finally the market got the diversification it was looking for when utsi announced another deal in australia and now the joint venture with panasonic for 3g phones the future of phones in china : http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031105/telecoms_utstarcom_panasonic_1.html

do your own DD but really please someone tell me that there is something wrong with this stock, just came off a double bottom also. just the same kind of info surrounding sndk when it was around 11, awesome product increasing revenues, increasing eps i could go on about it forever but unfortuantely i have to study and pack for my trip to pennslyvania the aggies are going to kick penn states and pittsburgh's ass this weekend. football you ask? no no my friend, Swimming

doubling up tomm on utsi
woot
tjk

[mrmarket]

UTSI

this stock is going to be beyond HUGE, buying more tomm at open even though that is not when i like too purchase stocks. finally the market got the diversification it was looking for when utsi announced another deal in australia and now the joint venture with panasonic for 3g phones the future of phones in china : http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031105/telecoms_utstarcom_panasonic_1.html

do your own DD but really please someone tell me that there is something wrong with this stock, just came off a double bottom also. just the same kind of info surrounding sndk when it was around 11, awesome product increasing revenues, increasing eps i could go on about it forever but unfortuantely i have to study and pack for my trip to pennslyvania the aggies are going to kick penn states and pittsburgh's ass this weekend. football you ask? no no my friend, Swimming

doubling up tomm on utsi
woot
tjk



If I had to buy a stock and bury it for a year, UTSI would be one of them.

[RL]

Hi Stenz,
Maybe you would like to look at this one not a mm stock but looks good tom. But what do I know. Just bought a bunch.

[stenzrob]

the one I was holding that has been making me nervous is MTEX.

I established a position at $7.30 just before it dropped some more, and more than doubled my position at $5.71. It bounced, but not on much volume, and there's been very little interest since then.

I sold all my MTEX today for $6.06, for a 17% loss on the original position and a 6% gain on the second buy.

I am TINY !!!
... and getting TINIER every day. After the LENS fiasco (which I'm still holding), I see now that MTEX reported very good results and is now up about 40% from where I sold it. Seemed like the right thing to do at the time. Live and learn!

[stenzrob]

Just bought some GMAI for $8.55. It's been on the screen for a while, I watched it run up, and it seems to be building a new base from which to launch.

[minni17]

Hey Stenz,

What's your take on API's earnings report?

Looked pretty good to me. I think the market will like and will respond accordingly? Whadda ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz,

What's your take on API's earnings report?

Looked pretty good to me. I think the market will like and will respond accordingly? Whadda ya think?

Minni
Minni,
API's report looks good to me, just what I like to see. Revenue growth is very strong, I also like that this is across several market areas. This is alos what I like about TRCI, by the way. As far as market reaction ... who the heck knows? The market perplexes me at times. I can only hope for an appropriate reaction.
regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.

[drchrislee]

Wow, very well done Stenz.

[tokyojoeskid]

stenz you still holdin gigm
I dont like its recent behavior I want to pull out but really not sure. Earnings coming up . . . what ya gonna do
tjk
im in at 2.73

[stenzrob]

stenz you still holdin gigm
I dont like its recent behavior I want to pull out but really not sure. Earnings coming up . . . what ya gonna do
tjk
im in at 2.73
I don't really like the recent action in GIGM, either. It fell out of the nice stairstep pattern on not insignificant volume. I'll wait and see if $2.50 provides some support.

I did buy some VLGC today for $2.01, just before it dropped off at the end of the day. Check revenue growth and progress toward profitability, then see that they have provided guidance for continued growth with a swing into profitability. Extremely volatile.

[stenzrob]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.
Right after I sold those, I put in a buy order to get them back at $15.80, where I had guessed it might drop momentarily to "fill the gap". I have no idea why gaps often fill, but they do, so I try to play it sometimes. It dipped alright, but only down to $15.90. Missed it by the proverbial thin dime. I have since removed that order and will just wait to see what happens with it.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey stenz...can I get another list of your open positions? Hard to keep track of your trades sometimes. I love VLGC, bought some this morning.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Hey stenz...can I get another list of your open positions? Hard to keep track of your trades sometimes. I love VLGC, bought some this morning.

Chris
Sure Chris. Not in any particular order,
LENS, NTST, SCKT, VLGC, QVDX, GIGM, API, TRCI, HBIO, GMAI

Looks like you got a better price for VLGC than I did.
TRCI is turning into a real adventure, it's been down 10%, up 10% and back again, all just today.

[The Kid]

I just picked up VLGC at $1.84 eight minutes ago. Good luck to all.

Be the Stenz you know you can be. :D

[stenzrob]

I just picked up VLGC at $1.84 eight minutes ago. Good luck to all.

Be the Stenz you know you can be. :D
Nicely done, Kid. Best of luck with it.

[tokyojoeskid]

what turned you on to this company? earnings out for toinght do they usually beat estimates? Rev growth looks decent no debt . . .
maybe big upside potential?
-the uniformed tjk

[stenzrob]

what turned you on to this company? earnings out for toinght do they usually beat estimates? Rev growth looks decent no debt . . .
maybe big upside potential?
-the uniformed tjk
Found it just messing around with my screen to see what might turn up. I have some mixed feelings about it, it's definitely one of the riskier and more volatile slots in my portfolio. From what I can see, there are no estimates, but there is some guidance from the company that indicates high confidence in continued strong revenue growth and accelerating profits in the next year.

[Tsevni98]

I first ran into you back when you owned TUNE between 9-14 dollars a share.


TUNE WAS supposed to be a great stock. I still dont know what happened to that one.

Happy to find you befriend Mr. Market and enjoy your board as your picks are cheaper plays, and you post more of a journal than mr. market does.

I unsuccessfully tried CRIO a couple months ago. And am thinking of trying a STENZ play again. Out of your holdings that you just posted, which do you like the most ? Please dont say TRCI as that has had quite a run.

thanks

TSEVNI

[stenzrob]

I first ran into you back when you owned TUNE between 9-14 dollars a share.

TUNE WAS supposed to be a great stock. I still dont know what happened to that one.
Overestimation of potential market led to overvaluation of TUNE stock (I bashed the heck out of it on the message board when it was priced at over 10x sales) followed by a series of blunders and screwups by management, that's what happened.

I unsuccessfully tried CRIO a couple months ago. And am thinking of trying a STENZ play again. Out of your holdings that you just posted, which do you like the most ? Please dont say TRCI as that has had quite a run.

thanks

TSEVNI
Just because it has had quite a run is no reason for it not to be my current favorite. Also, the idea of my portfolio is to hold several that might explode, on the idea that one 100% gainer balances out several non-performers, so just picking one of my picks may result in unsatisfactory results. Now that all the disclaimers are out of the way, the answer to your question is QVDX and SCKT. VLGC could also prove to be interesting, but is very volatile.

Good luck ... stenz

[The Kid]

Stenz,

You rock the house!! That goes without saying. Your stock picks have been very successful, so much so that even the Huge One has commended you. My question to you is this -- Is that a picture of you in your avatar?

Thanks,

The Kid

[stenzrob]

I bought SCKT for $3.79 after it broke out to a new 52 week high on higher than average volume about a week ago. After resting a bit, it did it again yesterday and is following through (so far) today, putting my position up over 16% in one week, but this is just the start for it, IMO. I have no idea what it might do day by day, but the price and volume trend along with the solid fundamentals to back it up tells me this stock could be a big winner. We shall see.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

You rock the house!! That goes without saying. Your stock picks have been very successful, so much so that even the Huge One has commended you. My question to you is this -- Is that a picture of you in your avatar?

Thanks,

The Kid
Thanks, Kid. That is not a picture of me in my avatar. That's what I'm planning to take to the plastic surgeon to use as a guide when I have made enough money to pay for the improvements.

[billyjoe]

I've always been amazed by those who buy and hold, never giving a thought to a small fast gain. Does anyone have a simple table showing the results over a period of time contrasting short gains of 5% - 10% per month compounded vs. yearly gains of 50%- 100%? I seem to have little problem picking breakouts, the problem is the reversal that usually happens within a week. Maybe a 3-5 day holding period would work. Most of the paperwork concerning IRS is eliminated by doing this in a self directed IRA. No capital gain worries. Billy Joe

[tokyojoeskid]

nothing seemed to exciting about earnings. looks like a selloff after hours. I think i may sell in the morning, one thing i like is they are going to concentrate on revenue growth, havnet looked into report this is just from first glance.
stenz what you thinkg?
tjk

[stenzrob]

tjk - The GIGM report is nothing to get excited about, IMO. Most of the sequential revenue growth was in offline, which has pretty low margins, and the previous quarter was cited as being particularly bad due to SARS. The broadband revenues were flat. Their burn rate is very low, and I think they're making the right moves. Downside is limited by the price being a small premium to book value.

I think there's still money to be made in this one, but it will take a while. As I mentioned to The Kid in his poll thread, I like to be in 5 or 6 positions that have the greatest chance (IMO) of explosive gains. I will probably be looking for an honorable exit. Since I bought at $1.60, I guess anywhere around here could be considered an honorable exit.

Looking back, I should have been quicker to sell as soon as the stairstep pattern was violated with some volume on Monday, as you yourself pointed out on Tuesday.

[stenzrob]

I will probably be looking for an honorable exit. Since I bought at $1.60, I guess anywhere around here could be considered an honorable exit.Out at $2.29, for a 43% gain after having been up over 100% at one point. Easy come, easy go.

[tokyojoeskid]

Well stenz unfortunately i didnt getout of gigmwhen ishould have andthe space bar atthe computer lab is a piece of 8***. dont know if i should wait for a short sypothy run before i sell, if that doesnt happen that just means ilose more money. Now if i do sell (bought at 2.70) just means im going to have to make 40% on my next pick, dont you love the market.. . ha oh well im young, next time i have to stick to my rule book. well what you think sell now? if you were in myshoes. i think i may sell half, watch the charts more careful and unload the rest if it hits 2.
thanks
tjk

[stenzrob]

Sorry to hear about that, tjk. What should you do with GIGM? Sometimes stocks that sell off like this will bounce in the short term, providing a way to exit with less loss. But, sometimes not. What you should do depends on your pain threshold and your goals.

Let me share bit of the stenz philosophy - maybe this will help, maybe not. (And note that very little of this is consistent with the $$$MR_MARKET$$$ method.)

1. You don't "have to" make 40% (or 15%) on your next pick, every trade should be as profitable as it will allow and you can make it, preferably in as short a time period as possible.

2. Every day is a new day, and it doesn't matter what's happened before except as it might serve as an indicator of the future (TA).

If you are holding $10,000 worth of stock and something terrible happens and it drops 20%, you now have $8,000 worth of stock. The $2,000 is gone - deal with it. You don't have $10,000 anymore, and the sooner you forget about the $2,000 and move on the better. The only purpose served by thinking about your loss at all is if you can learn something from it to prevent it from happening again. As I said, GIGM broke out of it's stairstep pattern before the report and that's when we should have sold. I was too slow. Believe it or not, I don't really care that I lost 10% on my GIGM position from yesterday afternoon to this morning. What bothers me more (meaning that I have something to learn from it) is the 9% that I lost from $2.75 when the pattern was clearly broken down to $2.52.

Now, what would would you do today if you had $8,000 to invest?

- Would you buy that very stock for the long term because you think the 20% hit was too much given the event that caused it? If so, hold it.

- Do you think that bargain hunters will cause a short-lived bounce that won't follow through in the longer term? If so, then hold until it looks like the bounce is fading or until you have another more compelling idea and then get out. Do NOT continue to hold because you hope it will get back to your purchase price - the stock does not care about your hopes, what your purchase price was, and does not listen to your prayers!

- Were you just as disappointed as the market seems to have been? If so, then just sell it and move on to your new best possible thing to do with $8,000.

None of this should involve any emotion (excitement, fear, greed, distress, panic) on your part, only a cold-blooded analysis of what the emotions of others might be.

3. Holding a stock is essentially the same as buying it. Holding a stock means you have decided not to buy something else. Every day that you hold a stock, you are not buying something else with the money you have tied up in it.

4. All of this applies just as much to a stock on which you're up, however much or little. Your position is up 15%? So what! Does the chart or valuation lead you to believe that it will continue going up, whether by price & volume, breakout, or R^2? Then keep it. Up 30%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 176% (like I currently am with TRCI)? So what! What is your best guess about the future direction - based on fundamentals, valuation, TA, whatever. And you must make this decision about every position every day, unless you're on vacation.

I'll tell you what I think Ernie's stock-picking method and mine have in common, even though we get completely different results.
A) There is something about the company's business (revenue growth and/or earnings growth) that says the company is doing well and improving.
B) There is something about the valuation (p/e and/or p/s) that says it ought to be priced higher.
C) Finally, there is something about the chart (relative strength, increasing volume, r^2) that says others are recognizing the first two things.
If you read the prospectus for a growth fund, you'll see that they look primarily at A, a value fund looks at B. Pure momentum traders look only at C.

Sorry I got a little long-winded.
Hope this helps ... stenz

[mrmarket]

Stenz...that was a friggin awesome post.

[tokyojoeskid]

It was a great post.
A lot of what you said I can see in the words of Oneil, very much appreciated the time you put into that.(did i just sound like yoda . . .weird)
I ended up selling the whole postion, I dont think there is much upside potentienal in the stock(short term) it def is not a A+ in my eyes so why should i keep holding it. there really is no point holding a stock going down "praying" it will go back up, so many people lost money this way 2000-2002. When looking at stocks you should only hold and keep holding the best stocks that fit your criteria.
I feel that yes my money can definately be put to work elsewhere and look forward to finding a great stock in the process of breaking out, wasnt my biggest holding so not a big deal but still had to swallow my pride for the loss, hindsight is always 20/20 but i will probably kick myself three times for not pulling the trigger earlier when it did break down.

watch nutr, if breaks 13 could be a quick couple points, some people try to compare it to a young usna. Only thing held over this stock is the distribution of shares by Bain(holdings) mostly finished for now though, good thing in the end more institutions can hold.

qvdx still looking solid, hbio finally gaining some ground.
man did anyone gobble up amd when it was around 10 was a no brainer but didnt have funds, itig ran up nicely in a week from 4-6.
On the look out for a winner, running the screen toinght hoepfully ill have time this weekend to find one, amist worthless homework/studying

Quick question to everyone out of college, do you use anything from your first four years of college???

[Karel]

Hi stenzrob, you like buying stocks that have run up and now might be pausing a bit for the next the run. This reminds me of Jon Markman's Flare-Out Growth, or FOG (http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P58082.asp) screen. In that article he mentions a timing component, no doubt because 'pausing' may get a very different meaning in a bear market, compared to the bull we are seeing right now.

Of course, your screen is much more articulated and you use Price and Volume to make your entries and exits, but perhaps this is still a thing to consider.

Regards,

Karel

[tx_damnyankee0]

It was a great post.
A lot of what you said I can see in the words of Oneil, very much appreciated the time you put into that.(did i just sound like yoda . . .weird)
I ended up selling the whole postion, I dont think there is much upside potentienal in the stock(short term) it def is not a A+ in my eyes so why should i keep holding it. there really is no point holding a stock going down "praying" it will go back up, so many people lost money this way 2000-2002. When looking at stocks you should only hold and keep holding the best stocks that fit your criteria.
I feel that yes my money can definately be put to work elsewhere and look forward to finding a great stock in the process of breaking out, wasnt my biggest holding so not a big deal but still had to swallow my pride for the loss, hindsight is always 20/20 but i will probably kick myself three times for not pulling the trigger earlier when it did break down.

watch nutr, if breaks 13 could be a quick couple points, some people try to compare it to a young usna. Only thing held over this stock is the distribution of shares by Bain(holdings) mostly finished for now though, good thing in the end more institutions can hold.

qvdx still looking solid, hbio finally gaining some ground.
man did anyone gobble up amd when it was around 10 was a no brainer but didnt have funds, itig ran up nicely in a week from 4-6.
On the look out for a winner, running the screen toinght hoepfully ill have time this weekend to find one, amist worthless homework/studying

Quick question to everyone out of college, do you use anything from your first four years of college??? A small smithering.....but nothing about trading.

[the_daqman]

Hi stenzrob, you like buying stocks that have run up and now might be pausing a bit for the next the run. This reminds me of Jon Markman's Flare-Out Growth, or FOG (http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P58082.asp) screen. In that article he mentions a timing component, no doubt because 'pausing' may get a very different meaning in a bear market, compared to the bull we are seeing right now.

Of course, your screen is much more articulated and you use Price and Volume to make your entries and exits, but perhaps this is still a thing to consider.

Regards,

Karel

since you mentioned the 'fog' screen i thought i would post a link to it in case anyone wants to play with it. i run it every month and put them on a list. every few months i look back to see how they are performing.

The FOG screen on Moneycentral (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF234Z04L1000000000ZF115 Z04L800000ZF121Z04L50000000ZF136Z04L0.1ZF156Z04L0. 1ZF157Z04L0.1ZF107F157SL3F156MSZ01&Name=Flare%2DOu t%20Growth%20%28Month%2DTrader%29&Tickers=10#TOP)
* edited to keep the URL from wrecking the layout. --Karel

ns2

[MEA_1956]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.
Right after I sold those, I put in a buy order to get them back at $15.80, where I had guessed it might drop momentarily to "fill the gap". I have no idea why gaps often fill, but they do, so I try to play it sometimes. It dipped alright, but only down to $15.90. Missed it by the proverbial thin dime. I have since removed that order and will just wait to see what happens with it.
TRCI has started a selloff. Am i missing something here, I see no bad news developing, at present time it is under your $15.80 mark are you thinking of picking up some more of this one or should we be considering an exit point. ===>MEA

[stenzrob]

TRCI has started a selloff. Am i missing something here, I see no bad news developing, at present time it is under your $15.80 mark are you thinking of picking up some more of this one or should we be considering an exit point. ===>MEA
It just looks to be taking a little break. I am planning nothing at present for TRCI - holding the remaining half of position, will not sell unless it begins serious selloff, will not buy more unless it establishes a new base and starts up again, or the price drops on low volume.

[stenzrob]

Quick question to everyone out of college, do you use anything from your first four years of college???
I use the diploma.
It covers an unsightly hole in the wall of my study.

[stenzrob]

Jon Markman's Flare-Out Growth, or FOG (http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P58082.asp) screen article.
The FOG screen on Moneycentral (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF234Z04L1000000000ZF115 Z04L800000ZF121Z04L50000000ZF136Z04L0.1ZF156Z04L0. 1ZF157Z04L0.1ZF107F157SL3F156MSZ01&Name=Flare%2DOu t%20Growth%20%28Month%2DTrader%29&Tickers=10#TOP)

Hey thanks, guys. I may play around with combining some of this stuff with my existing screen. If I come up with something, I'll let you know.

[The Kid]

Stenrob,

I thoroughly enjoyed your reply to TokyoJoe'sKid. As noted by others, it was a very good and insightful post. Thanks. :)

(I also appreciated your joking reply to me about the avatar. Sometimes I feel like people don't get my sense of humor over the internet. :( )

[wsucougz]

Looking like a good China related play. With strong government backing, their video encoding is now the standard for HDTV in China, this is for certain. There is also a big push by the Chinese government & industry to replace DVD in China with the homegrown standard EVD(Encoding provided by ONT), which has 5 times the image quality as DVD and the hardware is backwards compatible with DVD and VCD. This could be good for a quick double or more.

[The Kid]

Stenz,

It seems VLGC is building a base at around $1.85. Do you think this is a good sign?

The Kid

[stenzrob]

It seems VLGC is building a base at around $1.85. Do you think this is a good sign?
Yes, since this base would be just below the 52 week high. This stock has been seeing some serious volume in the last six months compared to the last three years, which corresponds with significant progress toward profitability in the last few quarters. (Note that I am not assuming cause & effect here, only a correlation.)

Extreme caution is warranted with this one - do not overweight it, IMO, unless you really like life on the edge. There is a large short position in it, and there seems to be high interest in selling out (or shorting more) every time it clears $2. On the other hand, if it manages to close above $2 and follow through with some real buying interest, it could move very fast.

[The Kid]

Stenz,

Thanks for the analysis. Although I do like 'living on the edge' a little with my stock picks, you have certainly given fair warning with this and earlier posts about the volatility of VLGC. I have a small position and will ride it out, ready for a roller-coaster. I appreciate your thoughts and comments on this, and the other stocks. Hopefully, we will get to chat about this one when it reaches $5. :D

the Kid

[stenzrob]

(I also appreciated your joking reply to me about the avatar.
Changed my avatar
- Now, "The Man Without Fear" swings high above the terrified crowds of Wall Street, using his superhuman stock radar to detect opportunity and danger without emotion!

[Uncle T]

In the last few years, an increasing amount of research has shown that PSYCHOLOGY and FINANCE go hand-in-hand in creating both unhealthy psyche and bad investment decisions.



Stenz, any particular book (or article) come to mind regarding psychology/finance connection?

I know there are several. I'm just wondering if one stands out for you.

Thanks,
Uncle T

[The Kid]

I think this new guy, Uncle T., has a rather uncanny resemblance to Don Knotts.

Stenz, I miss the other avatar. I was gettin' used to that guy. :lol:

[stenzrob]

Stenz, any particular book (or article) come to mind regarding psychology/finance connection?

I know there are several. I'm just wondering if one stands out for you.
Nope.

[tokyojoeskid]

Thinking of joining you on this one stenz, teacup maybe forming, today up on pretty big volume around triple the avg, closed at intraday high. Breaks ten and change could see a good run with little resistance. Although would like a little more rev growth an almost promised 40% inc for next quarter year over year is nice, and up from the most recent quarter.
thoughts are welcome
tjk

[stenzrob]

Thinking of joining you on this one stenz, teacup maybe forming, today up on pretty big volume around triple the avg, closed at intraday high. Breaks ten and change could see a good run with little resistance. Although would like a little more rev growth an almost promised 40% inc for next quarter year over year is nice, and up from the most recent quarter.
thoughts are welcome
tjk
I like the way this one is forming up, tjk. Bollinger's got tight and it broke to the upside on good volume, as you saw. A breakthrough to new high with volume could set it off nicely.

[stenzrob]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.
Right after I sold those, I put in a buy order to get them back at $15.80, where I had guessed it might drop momentarily to "fill the gap". I have no idea why gaps often fill, but they do, so I try to play it sometimes. It dipped alright, but only down to $15.90. Missed it by the proverbial thin dime. I have since removed that order and will just wait to see what happens with it.
TRCI has started a selloff. Am i missing something here, I see no bad news developing, at present time it is under your $15.80 mark are you thinking of picking up some more of this one or should we be considering an exit point. ===>MEA
Just bought those shares back for $14.16. Maybe I should have waited until it bases, but it has a tendency to move more than it stands still.

[tokyojoeskid]

Past three higher than avg volume days have been down days including today, i guess if i took a postion in this one i would wait to see where it closes today . . . near the low or a decent comeback into the close. Althogh all two and maybe today the stock runs back about half of its interday low. The fundamentals look good but i trade ta + fund. so I will wait.
Maybe youll get lucky and buy at the bottom stenz, more risk though.
good luck
tjk

[stenzrob]

Past three higher than avg volume days have been down days including today, i guess if i took a postion in this one i would wait to see where it closes today . . . near the low or a decent comeback into the close. Althogh all two and maybe today the stock runs back about half of its interday low. The fundamentals look good but i trade ta + fund. so I will wait.
Maybe youll get lucky and buy at the bottom stenz, more risk though.
good luck
tjk
Your observations are entirely accurate, tjk.
There is more risk my way, but that is why I am now "The Man Without Fear"!

[ChrisZXWJ]

I just sold my NENG for a 50% profit and bought more TRCI at 12.50. It's got to stop falling sometime, right? :roll:

[tokyojoeskid]

too many days of heavier volume and down days, waiting for trci to find a base. . . before i find my postion.
sit tight enjoy the weather 8)
tjk

[SuperVoy]

Check out the Yahoo TRCI board.
Humbling experience for me. :cry:

[stenzrob]

Check out the Yahoo TRCI board.
Humbling experience for me. :cry:I see nothing from you on the Yahoo TRCI board, unless you're in a different disguise there.
It's a roller coaster - no doubt about it! YEEHA!

regards ... stenz aka "The Trader Without Fear"

[SuperVoy]

This is what I was talking about when refering to the Yahoo board:

CEO files to sell 100,000 shares of TRCI

TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH (TRCI)
The company's chief executive, Robert Wiggins, registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission his intention to sell 100,000 of his company's shares.

http://www.amtddj.inlumen.com/bin/djstory?StoryId=Cp72B0aebqLqWmdqWnZq

Good luck to longs!

[stocks54]

Hello Strenzob,

Recently I went to couple of seminar - to name one WizeTrade...For 2 day seminar they are asking $900..any recommendation as to whether they are worth it? I am small investor...trying to make some money on side...

Thanks for you insight.

Regards.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz, you've been awfully quiet lately. What gives? I usually like hearing your opinions...are you just not seeing anything you like lately?

Just out of curiousity, what do you do?

[MEA_1956]

Boy was that a long breather or what. when TRIC steps back into the ring it"s best to bar the doors. 11.99% now thats worth loggen on to see. Let's just hope that this shortweek that is not supose to have no excitement, keeps up at the current rate. Yes Sir the water is fine. ===> MEA

[The Kid]

Stenz,

You know I think you are the stenziest of all the stenz's on this site and I value your opinion. :) First, I would once again like to thank you for turning me onto to VLGC, which I bought at $1.84. It has has had a very nice run-up today and I am up more than 15%. I know that the fifteen percent figure is Huge One's number and not yours, but I am just wondering how far you think this rocket will sail. I liked the mini-base it built around $1.85. Thoughts on this highly volatile stock?

Respectfully yours,

The Kid

[stenzrob]

You know I think you are the stenziest of all the stenz's on this site and I value your opinion. First, I would once again like to thank you for turning me onto to VLGC, which I bought at $1.84. It has has had a very nice run-up today and I am up more than 15%. I know that the fifteen percent figure is Huge One's number and not yours, but I am just wondering how far you think this rocket will sail. I liked the mini-base it built around $1.85. Thoughts on this highly volatile stock?

Respectfully yours, The Kid$6.95 ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Stenz, you've been awfully quiet lately. What gives? I usually like hearing your opinions...are you just not seeing anything you like lately?

Just out of curiousity, what do you do?Chris, I'm just waiting for my long positions to take off. I haven't run across anything more compelling than what I'm holding:
QVDX, VLGC, NTST, LENS, SCKT, TRCI, HBIO, API, GMAI.
I am also watching NGPS and a few others.

VLGC setting new high today on very strong volume.
Others also have good looking charts.

Until my portfolio reaches the level where I can retire, I spend most of my day as an engineering project manager.

[Cyberacorn]

Stenzrob,

I saw your name over on TRCI's board and recognized it from over here. You must be getting famous.

I bought TRCI, along with about three others, just because it hit IBD's 100. Not real strict DD, but it's fun. Then, I suffered through the big drop. After some DD, the company looks like it has potenial for growth with new products. Are you holding because of your gains and there isn't something more compelling, or do you still see upside potential?

JH

[stenzrob]

I see more upside possible in TRCI, but there might be some choppiness while a new support base builds. It sure ran up a lot in a hurry, and that will take some time to digest. I'm actually considering getting out of the holding mode and try to trade the volatility for a while.

GMAI is looking very good, and VLGC is continuing it's breakout. QVDX and SCKT will also breakout and run again eventually, IMHO.

[ChrisZXWJ]

QVDX needs a swift kick in the ass. It doesn't seem to want to get past $5.

My question for today is SFCC. I made a bunch in a runup from 25 to 35 a few months ago, but it's settled down lately. Think it's worth the value now?

[tokyojoeskid]

joined you today stenz in gmai at 10.20, chart looks awesome looks like a breakout is goin down. Passed couple breakouts in gmai looks like once it passes resistance it gets a nice pop. am in vlgc at 1.83 action looks great
good work stenz.
tjk

[stenzrob]

joined you today stenz in gmai at 10.20, chart looks awesome looks like a breakout is goin down. Passed couple breakouts in gmai looks like once it passes resistance it gets a nice pop. am in vlgc at 1.83 action looks great
good work stenz.
tjkGMAI does look like a breakout in the making. LENS is recovering nicely from post earnings drop. How come everybody got to buy VLGC for less than I did (some bought LENS for less, too)? That's not fair! I have got to work on my timing, I guess.

In answer to earlier question about SFCC - I haven't been following it very closely. Seems cheap, may have bottomed, but I don't understand why it dropped like a rock after Ernie sold it. Hmmm.

Also, SWIR is looking interesting on this dip, I am just watching it for now.

[mrmarket]

Stenz...did you like WSBK..my last pick?

[stenzrob]

Stenz...did you like WSBK..my last pick?Yes, your HUGENESS, I do. I'm not going to buy it, because it's only likely to keep moving very smoothly upwards, which is not my style, but it looks like a winner to me for sure.

[mrmarket]

Stenz...did you like WSBK..my last pick?Yes, your HUGENESS, I do. I'm not going to buy it, because it's only likely to keep moving very smoothly upwards, which is not my style, but it looks like a winner to me for sure.

Stenz...I'm surpised you are a beer drinker...based on your stock picks I would think you drink Red Bull and Vodka.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...I'm surpised you are a beer drinker...based on your stock picks I would think you drink Red Bull and Vodka.LOL! Actually, I'm not really a beer drinker - more a single malt scotch kind of guy.

I'm off to Madrid for all of next week, not likely to even get a chance to check on positions. My portfolio will be on auto-pilot while I'm out, I just hope it doesn't melt down or anything.

Have a great holiday and a great week.

regards ... stenz

[mrmarket]

Stenz...I'm surpised you are a beer drinker...based on your stock picks I would think you drink Red Bull and Vodka.LOL! Actually, I'm not really a beer drinker - more a single malt scotch kind of guy.

I'm off to Madrid for all of next week, not likely to even get a chance to check on positions. My portfolio will be on auto-pilot while I'm out, I just hope it doesn't melt down or anything.

Have a great holiday and a great week.

regards ... stenz


Stenz...have a safe trip. I'm going to reward your thread with a sticky (not that you need one) while you are away.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...have a safe trip. I'm going to reward your thread with a sticky (not that you need one) while you are away.Ooooh, Ernie, you make me sooo .... sticky.
:wink:

[stenzrob]

joined you today stenz in gmai at 10.20, chart looks awesome looks like a breakout is goin down. Passed couple breakouts in gmai looks like once it passes resistance it gets a nice pop. am in vlgc at 1.83 action looks great
good work stenz.
tjkYou're pickin' the cream of the crop there tjk. VLGC is turning out to be a lot more fun than it looked the first few days after I bought it, that's for sure. You're up over 45% in a week, if you didn't already jump off the ride.

[tokyojoeskid]

45% is correct sir.
maybe exiting shortly just such a big gain so fast, wish i could do that every week. Its only a small position which is why i may be a little patient to see if this baby keeps rolllin.
happy volatile days

are you really in till 6.95 and if so why did you set that goal?

[stenzrob]

45% is correct sir.
maybe exiting shortly just such a big gain so fast, wish i could do that every week. Its only a small position which is why i may be a little patient to see if this baby keeps rolllin.
happy volatile days

are you really in till 6.95 and if so why did you set that goal?I'll have to see how it goes, but yes, my target is $6.95, plus or minus $0.25.

Reason #1: VLGC IPO in late Spring of 2000 was at $7. It peaked at $24 that summer, then came down with the rest of the market, with $7 looking first like support, then like resistance, in early 2001. Look at a chart of the entire history of the stock. I see some resistance at $4, then $7.

Reason #2: My screen is used to identify BUY candidates. I especially like stocks with qtr/qtr revenue growth >35% just moving into profitability (which excludes them for the HUGE dump) and price/sales < 2. The majority of my holdings have qtr/qtr revenue growth higher than yr/yr (simple acceleration). But then, having bought, when do you sell if things go well? I haven't been as methodical about this as $$$M_M$$$, but the stocks that my screen has selected that have done very well for me, and in some cases went running on without me, like SWIR, FARO, ANIK, IFLO, seemed to run out of steam when the price/sales reached about 6.0. 8.0 would make me really nervous. Back in the bubble of early 2000, some stocks I followed sold at price/sales of 20 or more. This was insane. Without another reporting period in the interim, VLGC will reach a price/sales ratio of 8 when the price is $6.70.

By the way, someone posted this link on the GMAI board, and it has some good stuff in it - http://www.oberweis.net/octagon.htm

For a stock that's done well, here's a strategy that I will sometimes use, though it seems a little conservative for me - after the stock doubles or more, sell half your shares, the rest are free. A philosophical discussion about this strategy could occupy us all for months, I'm sure.

[mrmarket]

[quote=tokyojoeskid]45% is correct sir.

For a stock that's done well, here's a strategy that I will sometimes use, though it seems a little conservative for me - after the stock doubles or more, sell half your shares, the rest are free. A philosophical discussion about this strategy could occupy us all for months, I'm sure.


Oh goodie...I love being occupied for months...I guess losers like us have lots of time to discuss this stuff. :D :lol:

[puffmoon]

Any thoughts on EMBT...embarcadero tech... :P :idea:

[kingofthehill]

MY PICK IS DUKE REALITY ....DRE

[IIC]

Hi Everyone...My name is IIC...some of you may know me from the net??? I am glad to join your group!!!...I have followed some of you and Ernie for quite some time and I think you've come up with some good NEW IDEAS as I like to call them. Don't know how much time I will have to post...but I certainly intend to check in regularly. I am a long time Canslimmer from the late '70's who started making adjustments in mid '00...Currently, I would call myself a Short-term Momentum Trader also looking for tight bases on drying up volume...My current holdings are:
FDRY
BIT
DTAS
PWN
EGHT
LRCX
EGOV
ISSI

Best To All...IIC :)

[mrmarket]

LRCX made my last dump....The rest look like Stenz or Liz picks....welcome aboard!!!

[IIC]

LRCX has been a good one...owned it 3x recently with good results...so far anyway. Can't always be right though...SLD NTPA early today and then it goes up 9%...Well, nobody's perfect :oops:

I read LIZ but have not participated...cool group...good ideas there too...THX for inviting me...Best, IIC

[ParkTwain]

Using this list at MSN Money:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/deluxestockscreen.aspx?query=New+5-Year+Highs

I notice that these stocks have the most recent breakout action:

HRB
NKE
SCRI, STR, STU, STZ

Take a look at the charts for all the stocks on the 5-year list and notice in each case what the stretch or more or less unbroken price appreciation was after the price surpassed its previous multi-year high!

I'm also looking at these chart setups showing a breakout from a previous (less than 5-year) high:

CACC (more speculative), CATS
SAM
WMAR

Here are other attractive "distant resistance" chart setups:

AUDC
CDN, CRNT
IBIS
PER
RETK (some recent weakness)
SEAC, SNWL
TLRK

Happy hunting!

[IIC]

I'm not really sure if this is the appropriate Topic to post this in...Pls. let me know if I should post it somewhere else in the future...THX

My Weekend Watchlist mostly(but not all)consists of companies that have tight bases with drying up vol. Typically, I will watch them for a breakout on vol...See IBD Investor's Corner 10/20/03. Sometimes I buy and wait; e.g. BIT...I also look for good companies that have corrected and are coming back on volume. I don't worry too much about past EPS...more concerned with current and future EPS.

FINL, DY, MSS, CBK, ASPT, IGT, NENG, MSTR, INTV, HELE, MTXX, ODSY, AV, DNA, FORM, HILL, MVSN, SNIC, TRCI, MOBI, RFMI, LCUT, TSAI, NETE, ALDN, CBA, LFL, NTST, SGDE, ADEX, CAMD, AUGT, TTMI, MOBE, NCI, CLST, NICE, NITE, VSAT, GES, INSP, SLNK ... Note, the Analyst projection for the current qtr is wrong at DGO on NTST

And my WEEKEND FLYER LUNCH MONEY play...AXYX

Best To All...IIC

[mrmarket]

I'm not really sure if this is the appropriate Topic to post this in...Pls. let me know if I should post it somewhere else in the future...THX

My Weekend Watchlist mostly(but not all)consists of companies that have tight bases with drying up vol. Typically, I will watch them for a breakout on vol...See IBD Investor's Corner 10/20/03. Sometimes I buy and wait; e.g. BIT...I also look for good companies that have corrected and are coming back on volume. I don't worry too much about past EPS...more concerned with current and future EPS.

FINL, DY, MSS, CBK, ASPT, IGT, NENG, MSTR, INTV, HELE, MTXX, ODSY, AV, DNA, FORM, HILL, MVSN, SNIC, TRCI, MOBI, RFMI, LCUT, TSAI, NETE, ALDN, CBA, LFL, NTST, SGDE, ADEX, CAMD, AUGT, TTMI, MOBE, NCI, CLST, NICE, NITE, VSAT, GES, INSP, SLNK ... Note, the Analyst projection for the current qtr is wrong at DGO on NTST

And my WEEKEND FLYER LUNCH MONEY play...AXYX

Best To All...IIC


IIC.....you obviously have much to say..Why don't you start a new topic with a brand new thread? Then people who are interested in your selections can communicate with you in this new thread so that Stenz' fans can stay on topic here.

Think that can work?

[IIC]

That's why I asked...Unfortunately I am at office right now trying to catch up...that's the price I pay for watching my streamers at work...I will delete the post and transfer it to a new topic tonight...THX...IIC

[mrmarket]

That's why I asked...Unfortunately I am at office right now trying to catch up...that's the price I pay for watching my streamers at work...I will delete the post and transfer it to a new topic tonight...THX...IIC

No need to delete it...just copy and paste a new one.

[kingofthehill]

duke is up DRE

Key Statistics Get Key Statistics for:




Data provided by Multex, except where noted.

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday): 4.32B
Enterprise Value (2-Dec-03)³: 6.95B
Trailing P/E (ttm): 30.50
Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-04)¹: 12.25
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected)¹: 1.65
Price/Sales (ttm): 5.46
Price/Book (mrq): 2.00
Enterprise Value/Revenue (ttm)³: 8.93
Enterprise Value/EBITDA (ttm)³: 14.05


FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends: 31-Dec
Most Recent Quarter (mrq): 30-Sep-03


Profitability
Profit Margin (ttm): 25.50%
Operating Margin (ttm): 22.30%


Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm): 3.65%
Return on Equity (ttm): 6.57%


Income Statement
Revenue (ttm): 952.63M
Revenue Per Share (ttm): 5.341
Revenue Growth (lfy)³: -7.80%
Gross Profit (ttm)²: 579.63M
EBITDA (ttm): 494.49M
Net Income Avl to Common (ttm): 140.89M
Diluted EPS (ttm): 1.041
Earnings Growth (lfy)³: -26.90%


Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq): 931.00K
Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 0.01
Total Debt (mrq)²: 2.26B
Total Debt/Equity (mrq): 0.849
Current Ratio (mrq): N/A
Book Value Per Share (mrq): 15.59


Cash Flow Statement
From Operations (ttm)³: 357.44M
Free Cashflow (ttm)³: -6.94M



View Financials (provided by EDGAR Online):
Income Statement - Balance Sheet
Cash Flow

ADVERTISEMENT


TRADING INFORMATION


Stock Price History
Beta: 0.252
52-Week Change: 23.27%
52-Week Change (relative to S&P500): 7.66%
52-Week High (14-Nov-03): 31.30
52-Week Low (27-Jan-03): 24.25
50-Day Moving Average: 29.71
200-Day Moving Average: 28.13


Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month): 334,727
Average Volume (10 day): 302,000
Shares Outstanding: 135.98M
Float: 128.70M
% Held by Insiders: 5.36%
% Held by Institutions: 57.04%
Shares Short (as of 10-Nov-03): 1.06M
Daily Volume (as of 10-Nov-03): N/A
Short Ratio (as of 10-Nov-03): 3.389
Short % of Float (as of 10-Nov-03): 0.83%
Shares Short (prior month): 1.11M


Dividends & Splits
Annual Dividend: 1.84
Dividend Yield: 5.89%
Dividend Date: 28-Nov-03
Ex-Dividend Date: 12-Nov-03
Last Split Factor (new per old)²: 2:1
Last Split Date: 26-Aug-97


More from Multex
Multex offers more in-depth Company Research, Stock Screening, and Hottest Stocks and Industries on over 10,000 U.S. Equities.








-Dec-03 30.80 31.25 30.79 31.25 442,600 31.25
28-Nov-03 30.40 30.80 30.30 30.80 189,900 30.80
26-Nov-03 30.25 30.25 30.03 30.24 232,600 30.24
25-Nov-03 29.84 30.25 29.77 30.25 307,800 30.25
24-Nov-03 29.72 30.07 29.72 30.07 248,300 30.07
21-Nov-03 29.86 29.93 29.40 29.86 299,600 29.86
20-Nov-03 30.02 30.06 29.48 29.81 353,500 29.81
19-Nov-03 30.03 30.40 30.01 30.16 330,600 30.16
18-Nov-03 29.95 30.06 29.86 30.00 322,000 30.00
17-Nov-03 29.80 29.95 29.75 29.95 297,200 29.95

[Mi6op]

Whatever happend to Stenz? I havn't seen him in while.

[stenzrob]

Whatever happend to Stenz? I havn't seen him in while.I'm on a business trip in Madrid, just got a chance to check in here. What is all this stuff on my thread ?!

HBIO, NTST, and VLGC all breaking out, TRCI is all over the place. Sold half of my VLGC at 2.90 this morning for a 44% gain in 3 weeks, still holding the other half. With the recent advance, it had become my largest holding, and I'm still reserving that dubious honor for QVDX. My portfolios are at all-time highs, and outpacing the nasdaq at more than 4.5x rate in the last few weeks.

Buenos dias ... stenz

[Cyberacorn]

Stenz,

My limit price hit today so I'm out of TRCI. I was surprised to see it tank in late afternoon. I think I'll stay away from it for a while. I'm still holding MOBI, but I'm not crazy about it. Are you looking for a strong run in January?

JH

[ChrisZXWJ]

So, I thought it would be fun to sell all of my TRCI and try my first short of my life. Stupid idea. Good thing I'm a wuss and only lost a bit on the short sale. Anyway, with the money I did make off of TRCI (I had A LOT of shares...almost 40% of my portfolio at the time I sold...and no, I didn't sleep well at night)...I have plenty of cash available for new picks.

ZILA interests me...but I'm reluctant about it, I need to read some more into it. Any comments or other suggestions?

[milan47]

hi stenz

your results are pretty impressive. As I said before your town will be eventually renamed Stenz Hill,NJ.
I was running your screen as follows:



Revenue Growth:
Rev Growth Qtr vs Qtr > 25%
Rev Growth Yr vs Yr = High As Possible

Momentum:
3 month Relative Strength > 85
Avg Daily Vol Last Month > 50,000
Avg Daily Vol Last Qtr > Avg Daily Vol Last Year

Valuation:
Price/Sales Ratio < 3.0

Financial Strength:
Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.3
Current Ratio > 1.3

Last Price > $1.5
Market Cap < $500M

I was probably doing something wrong because the screen spilled out only the following:

isec nice imos jbss mtex prft lynx tiii ccbc vtiv

Is something wrong with my criteria or did I commit a different mistake??

Thank you for your time.

milan47 :(

[allnewin01]

You're formula looks right. But I just ran it and got 27 stocks.

HLEX ISEC CPTV CMTL HBIO BFLY API CLZR SWIR NICE SAFE IMOS GMAI JBSS IPAR EONC WITS MTEX MERX PRFT SMSC LYNX TIII CCBL INOD AINN VTIV
:?

[puffmoon]

Bought TOL today, seems like a good play.. good industry, announcing on wed....
:shock:

[stenzrob]

Doubled my SCKT position today at $3.51. Had gone to about 30% cash a week ago, now back to 14% cash.

SCKT -7.4% on first half
VLGC +40%
LENS -11%
QVDX +12%
NTST +190% on half, +30% on half
API +13%
TRCI +205%, not counting extra in&outs
HBIO +33%
GMAI +28%

For those who asked: Some of those above don't currently show up on my screen.
VLGC TRCI SCKT price/sales are >4,
QVDX recent weakness has dropped RSI to <85,
NTST revenue growth is below threshold, but EPS growth is outstanding.

Portfolio performance continues to outpace the nasdaq by about x4.5 over any several week period.

CMTL took an interesting dive today ahead of report in the morning. I'm watching it for a possible opportunity.

best regards to all ... stenz

[tokyojoeskid]

Picked up some prox today at 1.90 volume is incredible, looking for a quick pop and a quick exit.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031209/0931000822_2.html

provides broadband, or high-speed, wireless access products and access cards both in the United States and internationally

just signed a big contract with china unicom

what do you think?

[stenzrob]

Picked up some prox today at 1.90 volume is incredible, looking for a quick pop and a quick exit.
http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/031209/0931000822_2.html

provides broadband, or high-speed, wireless access products and access cards both in the United States and internationally

just signed a big contract with china unicom

what do you think?Good luck with it tjk. It's not for me - despite the juicy contract. Current liabiliities are higher than current assets, meaning a setback could send them scrambling for cash. Book value is negative. Revenue and earnings have no consistent pattern of growth, it's all over the place. I don't want to have to pay that close attention and lose sleep worrying, there are much safer wireless plays, IMO. It could do great for you, or you could get stuck holding the bag.

[stenzrob]

My mama told me there'd be days like this:

Today's action in my portfolios at this time -
QVDX -3.0%
SCKT -8.0%
LENS -4.8%
VLGC -1.8%
NTST -3.1%
API -7.8% (I just bought some more)
TRCI -13.7%
HBIO -3.7%
GMAI -4.6%

I'll call the Bentley dealer and tell them they can sell that Continental GT to someone else this year.

[milan47]

stenzrob

nasdaq needs some rehab soon.. played some fast game on EGHT yesterday and got out today basically breaking even..

[ChrisZXWJ]

Bought some EONC and API today...stenz, what do you think of EONC?

[stenzrob]

Bought some EONC and API today...stenz, what do you think of EONC?I like EONC. I think it's a very good choice.

[stenzrob]

API -7.8% (I just bought some more)
TRCI -13.7%
Paid $2.02 for additional API earlier today.

Got my trading shares of TRCI back for $14.90. Continuing to hold half of the original $6 position, have bought and sold the other half several times now.
Sell $14.00 (+133%),
Buy $12.32, sell $17.49 (+42%)
Buy $14.16, sell $17.00 (+20%)
Buy $14.90. fingers crossed.

[tokyojoeskid]

sold prox for a small loss, joined the crew on sckt at 3.12 almost picked some up around the low of the day yesterday, looks like there is plenty of support around three, any idea why it got beaten up?
tjk

[stenzrob]

sold prox for a small loss, joined the crew on sckt at 3.12 almost picked some up around the low of the day yesterday, looks like there is plenty of support around three, any idea why it got beaten up?
tjkGlad to see someone else willing to take a small loss if they don't feel comfortable with their position, for whatever reason. Why SCKT got beaten up, I haven't a clue. Almost everything on my watch list was down yesterday, several by double digit percentages. That's OK - my repurchase of TRCI shares is up over 10% since yesterday. No fear!

[grebnet]

Take a look at PPHM and WHT these might be up your alley.

I just picked up API at 2.02 to try the ride. Are you trading this ? if so what kind of short term target ?

I have had PROX for a month at 1.50.

Been beat up in LENS since mid 12s but hangin on.

[stenzrob]

I just picked up API at 2.02 to try the ride. Are you trading this ? if so what kind of short term target ?No, I'm not trading API, and I have no short term target. I originally bought just above $2, rode it up and back down, and doubled my position just above $2. Please read the last quarterly report if you haven't already. Revenue and earnings already growing rapidly, but I especially like the parts about "on course to achieve our 40% sales growth objective for fiscal 2004" and "several new projects that will begin shipping later this fiscal year and into fiscal 2005". My current plan is to play this one like I have TRCI, sell half after it more than doubles, and hold the rest.

[Michaelk005]

Im in Api at 2.04, good feed back i like the report, stenz.. you think its going to double from $2?

[stenzrob]

Im in Api at 2.04, good feed back i like the report, stenz.. you think its going to double from $2?At least.

A better day today than yesterday for my portfolios, glad to have the rest of my TRCI shares back again for now, NTST set a closing high on good volume. I'll start cleaning up my garage this weekend to make room for that Bentley. http://www.motorbar.co.uk/bentleygt1.htm

[Mi6op]

Stenz I ran a screen I have that is compriable to yours and came up w/ 2 companies SAFE and FCFS. FCFS though has been more intriguing to me, in their last Q Rev was up 25% (29 mil to 37) due to the increased loan and check cashing rev's from their new businesses. SSS up 15% as well with a significant increase in merchanidise sales as well.

All seems well and they seem to be aggressivly growing in the process. Any thoughts?

For what it's worth I ran the company's intrinsic value and came up at $81

[drchrislee]

Nice, I used Stenz's screen to pick EONC...up almost 8% since I bought it today. Too bad that I was using my "spare change" investment money, and not some more dollars (damn commissions eating up most of the profit). Oh well, let's see if it can continue upwards!

[tokyojoeskid]

sckt does bluetooth right
http://www.investors.com/editorial/tech01.asp?v=12/12

i dont know how heavily involved though

[stenzrob]

SCKT is heavily involved in Bluetooth, but it's not their only area. They're diversified into several kinds of things to stick in your laptop or PocketPC (is that a socket in your pocket?), like barcode scanners (like for warehouse inventory), memory, serial ports, etc.. Their last 4 or 5 PR's have been about Bluetooth.

[ChrisZXWJ]

what exactly is bluetooth? I'm far too lazy to look it up.

[stenzrob]

Bluetooth is a wireless technology.
Cheaper but lower bandwidth than Wi-fi, aka 802.11. 802.11 has several versions with different capabilities, too.

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/bluetooth2.htm

If you're too lazy to click a link to get a one page summary, CYD is a good investment. They make big diesel engines.

[ChrisZXWJ]

I like big diesel engies. Especially when they make me money.

Just out of curiousity, do you still like QVDX? and why? it bores me...but I'm still holding it.

[stenzrob]

Yes, I still like QVDX, and for my usual reasons. Revenue is growing rapidly, and they are approaching profitability. No debt, low price/sales and price/book values. The street was apparently unimpressed with the RWAV acquisition, so it may take some time for the stock price to recover, but when it does, there is potential for very nice gains. With the exception of the one day selloff on the acquisition news, it has reasonable money flow.

NTST was pretty boring too this summer when I loaded up on it.

[tokyojoeskid]

looking through and came across icad. approaching profitability just aquired cadX I believe, they do mamograms and such. The management seems overly excited for a usual monotone group of guys. what you guys think?
tjk

[stenzrob]

looking through and came across icad. approaching profitability just aquired cadX I believe, they do mamograms and such. The management seems overly excited for a usual monotone group of guys. what you guys think?
tjkYou must be screening only for momentum to find that one, tjk. Revenue and earnings are very inconsistent, I don't see steady growth or steady progress toward profitability. Price/sales ratio is over 20, price/book over 8. The current ratio is 0.7, which means they have more current liabilities than current assets. Unless I'm missing something here, this should be headed back down. But then, I though LENS would be going up, so WTFDIK?

[ChrisZXWJ]

How about GORX? Noticed it on the screen today....seems a bit too good to be true.

[MEA_1956]

Bluetooth is a wireless technology.
Cheaper but lower bandwidth than Wi-fi, aka 802.11. 802.11 has several versions with different capabilities, too.

http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/bluetooth2.htm

If you're too lazy to click a link to get a one page summary, CYD is a good investment. They make big diesel engines.


Now I Know Why, When a car passed by my moms house the Overhead door would open or close, now I can answer Bluetooth did it.

[stenzrob]

Volume is strong, new high today.
Bought at $2.01 on Nov 11, now up over 60% and counting.
Others have had the opportunity to buy for less.

[tokyojoeskid]

just came across icad scanning news and things, then listened to their conference call. Seems after their current aquisition which they were lucky to complete because a large shareholder wanted to sell their shares and they got them for a deal, the aquisition and management feels confident predictiing profitablitly in 04. Management sounds like they have a great group full of talent. just another one to watch . . ..

man guess i should have held on to vlgc, but hey 50% in five days wasnt bad:) and maybe ill find a spot to jump back in.

looking at hlex and once again cyd, what are a couple of your favs right now stenz? (either holding or just watching)

tjk

[stocks54]

Hey Strenz,

After a long time of loosing money in stock market I will be making some profit (VLGC). Thanks for nice picks. I hope it's time LENS starts its run.....

Regards

[stenzrob]

Hey Strenz,

After a long time of loosing money in stock market I will be making some profit (VLGC). Thanks for nice picks. I hope it's time LENS starts its run.....

RegardsHappy to hear you're doing better now. LENS has been a little frustrating, but they sometimes do this, even for his HUGEness.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I dumped all my SCKT today at $3.14 for an average loss of 14%.

Two reasons:
1) End of year is a good time to take the loss to partially offset other ridiculous gains. Others may do the same.
2) Price/sales ratio is high by my standards, I now think there are better prospects.

Considering doing the same with my ill-fated LENS position, but only reason #1 would apply. LENS revenue growth is higher than SCKT's, and the price/sales is lower, and LENS is profitable by some measures.

This doesn't mean anyone else should do the same - remember, I dumped GORX for a loss, too, and it's done well ever since!

[stocks54]

With merger deal completed it's time QVDX makes it's run...

[stenzrob]

Dumped the LENS position today at $9.98 for a 23% loss. I don't understand why this stock hasn't done better than it has, but I have learned not to argue with the market. Losses taken in the cash (non-IRA) account before the end of the year to decrease taxes. Profitable positions in this account (VLGC +70%, QVDX +18%) will be held at least until after the new year, unless something really unusual happens. This account is now at over 50% cash, so I am perusing the candidates generated by my screen for a couple of buys. EONC is high on the list, for one. I'll post my decisions here, of course.

Certainly I am hoping that QVDX may start a move up now that the RWAV merger is complete.

[Mi6op]

I'm going to hold on to LENS, fortunately i got in at 10.08 and have not much to lose at this time. However, speaking of dogs I'm uncertain as to dump CBK or not and my 25% loss with it what is your take?

I've tried to find message boards to discuss a stock I'm really interested in but to no avail so I thought i'd just mention it here to get feedback, it's a penny stock of a company called SHEP Technologies (STLOF).

SHEP is an acronym for its product it is developing (Stored Hydraulic Energy Propulsion). It is aimed at using the power created from using ones brakes in an automobile, truck, etc and after storing that energy releasing it to accerate the vehicle, thus decreasing fuel consumption, engine wear, environmental emissions, etc.

SHEP has the attention of Ford and their prototype should be done by July.

The website has a good graphic explaining what it does as well as other info and figures. http://www.shepinc.com/

If anyone knows where I can find more info about this company as well as any feedback you may have I would really appreciate it.

Thanks,

Nate

[stenzrob]

Bought some EONC today - this is a classic setup, IMO. Meets all my screen criteria for revenue growth, financial stability, etc. Average volume is steadily increasing over the last several quarters, with up days on higher volume than down days. Down today on light volume, I picked up a starting position at $3.40. EONC and I actually go way back, I bought this back in July for $1.60, and sold it in August for $2.60.

GMAI broke out again on higher than average volume. My original position is now up 46%. (Actually, I sold the original $8.55 position for $11.10 just before they pre-announced next quarter report, duh, and was lucky enough to get it all back for $11.05 before it broke out.)
HBIO continues to climb stealthily toward a breakout. If the two year chart of this isn't a cup w/handle, then there is no such thing at all! My position is already up 40%, but there's more to come.
VLGC continues to climb, while the short interest keeps growing. This is a great candidate for a squeeze. If this breaks past $4, it could run to $8 before even slowing to take a breath. My position is up over 70% by NOT selling it all on the first pop, only half.
NTST and TRCI still look strong, but I sold about half of each to free up some cash in my IRA in case of an end-of-year or beginning-of-the-year opportunity. My original positions are up about 205% and 175% in these, plus I've traded more shares in each one several times profitably, buying on dips and selling on rallies, while holding a core position through thick and thin, mostly thick.
API is back near $2 support area again. I initially bought this at $2.08, and accumulated some more at $2.02. If I see another intraday dip, I'm considering buying it again, this time with the intent of selling the final 1/3 for a small gain like 25 or 30%.

Currently at 25% cash in my IRA and 35% cash in non-IRA. The end of the year and the beginning of the next year quite often brings on some interesting opportunities. Perhaps more weakness from weak or flat stocks at the end of the year from loss-taking to minimize taxes, and perhaps pullbacks on strong stocks at the beginning of the year, as people wait to take profits until the year is over. I will continue to be interested in the same stocks for the same old reasons, and just try to capitalize on any opportunity.

Good luck to all and happy holidays, feliz navidad! ... stenz

[SuperVoy]

I've tried to find message boards to discuss a stock I'm really interested in but to no avail so I thought i'd just mention it here to get feedback, it's a penny stock of a company called SHEP Technologies (STLOF).

SHEP is an acronym for its product it is developing (Stored Hydraulic Energy Propulsion). It is aimed at using the power created from using ones brakes in an automobile, truck, etc and after storing that energy releasing it to accerate the vehicle, thus decreasing fuel consumption, engine wear, environmental emissions, etc.


That stuff reminds me of this:

http://www.prnewswire.com/mnr/wavecrestlabs/10740/

,this: http://www.wavecrestlabs.com/technology/adaptive_motor.html

and this: http://www.wavecrestlabs.com/applications/automobiles.html#

http://www.wavecrestlabs.com/images/wc_adaptive_motor.gif

http://www.wavecrestlabs.com/images/applications/auto_i2_large.jpg

[stenzrob]

I'm going to hold on to LENS, fortunately i got in at 10.08 and have not much to lose at this time. However, speaking of dogs I'm uncertain as to dump CBK or not and my 25% loss with it what is your take?

Thanks, Nate
Personally, I see no reason to be in CBK. Growth wasn't that outstanding to begin with, and then they guided down. Almost all of the time, I maintain that it really doesn't matter if your current position is up, down or whatever. If you have reason to believe the stock will go up from here, hold it or buy it. If you think it will go down or nowhere from here, sell it if you own it and just ignore it if you don't. Near the end of the year is a good time to allow your current position to influence your decision.

[Mi6op]

That stuff reminds me of this:


That seems like a battery powerd car from what I see or something similar. SHEP will be used on autos with internal combustion engines. Their system would just be integrated into an auto somehow. Which I think Auto Manufacturers will embrace before a battery or power cell model. I also think the Trucking industry would be really interested as how they probably have a lot of engine wear/ diesel usage just from stopping and starting all the time. Also think of all that exhaust you see shot into the sky when a semi goes from complete stop to moving again. Now I'm no environmentalist by any means but I still understand the small impact that may have on the environment.


This website/Magizine did a test run of a prototype car http://www.ioreport.com/archive/listserv/20030221-1.html

Here is a quote of what Shep does and what Ford thinks of it from the article:

We were astounded when we actually had the opportunity to drive Ford's "Proof of Concept" Navigator and experienced SHEP working first hand. In a shopping mall parking lot directly across from a top secret Ford facility in Dearborn, Michigan, we drove the SUV. After achieving a speed of about 35 miles per hour, our editor brought the vehicle to a stop. The computer screen which had been rigged up between the driver and passenger seats showed the hydraulic pressure building in the accumulator system during braking.

When accelerating from a dead stop, the tachometer did not move above idle speed until the Navigator was already traveling about 25 miles per hour, meaning the engine had not engaged. It was simply idling. At about 25 MPH the tachometer jumped from 1100 to about 3000 RPMs, indicating the engine was now moving the vehicle. The transition was quiet and seamless; virtually unnoticeable if you weren't aware of it.

Since the engine is not used during the start up phase, Ford has determined the SHEP system as fitted on the Proof of Concept Navigator yields the following result:

38% improvement in fuel economy.
32% faster acceleration from a stop.
51% less pollution.
77% longer brake life.

[stenzrob]

EONC down again today, looks like I may have been a bit early to this party, and I have to help set up the chairs. My newest position, and the only one down for the day.

GMAI continues up on higher than average volume. Still selling at a PEG ratio of less than 1.0, this could still double from here, IMO.
HBIO continues to climb steadily toward a breakout.
VLGC is simply amazing. I'm up 83% in six weeks.
NTST and TRCI still steady, recovering from high volume peaks.
API moved up off the $2 support again, and I never got around to picking up more like I wanted. I may just have to buy more on the way up.
QVDX closed above $5 for the first time in six weeks. Like stocks54 said, "With merger deal completed it's time QVDX makes it's run..."

Happy holidays to all in the HUGE clan! ... stenz

[stocks54]

Happy Holidays to everyone. I am holiding VLGC QVDX and LENS. I am very happy to see VLGC make the run. I probably should sell other positions and invest some in HBIO or probably GMAI?? This is where I feel I need to have more money...

[tokyojoeskid]

glad i held onto it and didnt bail up 18% today, the chart looked like it was ready to pop, might look to sell around 4 but well see what post holiday brings.
Happy Holidays
Tjk

[IIC]

I like HBIO too...one of the members here mentioned it to me on 12/17...my trading partner BOT it the same day...if the mkt cooperates I'd rate it a Buy...Best, IIC

[tokyojoeskid]

added to my postion at 9.63 today cup and handle looks great,
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=HBIO,uu[m,a]waolyyay[pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9]&pref=G

my original pos at 6.54 is up 65%
def going to hold for a while

nano plays are doing well today

[IIC]

Nice call on HBIO

[Coop]

for the heads up on VLGC. Nice ride (so far) to 35% gain. Happy and prosperous New Years to you!

[stenzrob]

for the heads up on VLGC. Nice ride (so far) to 35% gain. Happy and prosperous New Years to you!Glad you're liking it Coop. By the way, I used to live in Phoenixville before moving over the river to New Jersey. Happy New Year! ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Nice call on HBIOThanks man. After taking two years to develop a nice cup and handle, the HBIO breakout went too fast. I was on holiday and missed the opportunity for a quick out&in, but the trend is still up, so I'll stick with it.

EONC is going well enough, looks like another breakout in the making.
I bought some MTRX today at $18.01 and $17.30. There may be better buy points coming up, but I wanted to get a piece of it, anyway.

2003 was sure a lot of fun.
My portfolio was up 63% in Q2, 54% in Q3, and 21% in Q4.

Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous 2004, whether following the HUGE one, or pursuing your own path.

regards ... stenz

[stocks54]

Hey Strenz,

Good to see you back. "After taking two years to develop a nice cup and handle" is this some kind of pattern that you look in chart (excuse me if I sound silly)? If you can please guide me as to where I can get more information on this?

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Hey Strenz,

Good to see you back. "After taking two years to develop a nice cup and handle" is this some kind of pattern that you look in chart (excuse me if I sound silly)? If you can please guide me as to where I can get more information on this?

Regards,Thanks. It's good to be back, and you do not sound silly. I look for chart patterns for an extra clue after identifying good stocks with my screen. For more information about the "cup with handle", try this:
http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/cupHandle.html

Browse around the stockcharts "Chart School" section. It's all about technical indicators, chart patterns, etc. I still believe that the best gains are to be had with stocks of companies with strong revenue growth and prospects for more, that are reasonably valued in terms of price/sales ratio. But it sure can't hurt to understand what technical traders are looking for ...

[stocks54]

Thanks Strenz. I will check out the URL you mentioned. I read your discussion on LENS board and it's kind of ironic how some people on board would just attack rational people when they no clue what they are talking about...

Regards,

[stenzrob]

I read your discussion on LENS board and it's kind of ironic how some people on board would just attack rational people when they no clue what they are talking about...Are you talking about me, or the other guy? LOL!

[stocks54]

Strenz,

I was talking about "marvelreb".

[drchrislee]

Just FYI, used your screen stenz to pick up ABMC on friday...looked like it fit the cup and handle nicely I think...up almost 10% so far. :)

Anyway, had a question regarding your sale points....you mention you like to ride the stocks out until they have no steam left, but how do you determine that? Is it a subjective feeling, or are there other more substantial indicators?

Thanks!

[stenzrob]

Just FYI, used your screen stenz to pick up ABMC on friday...looked like it fit the cup and handle nicely I think...up almost 10% so far. :)

Anyway, had a question regarding your sale points....you mention you like to ride the stocks out until they have no steam left, but how do you determine that? Is it a subjective feeling, or are there other more substantial indicators?

Thanks!Glad to see someone applying what I've been talking about to stocks they find. ABMC looks good. I had modified my screen to require qtr/qtr rev growth > yr/yr rev growth so I missed that one.

RE: Sale point - partly subjective, mostly based on price and volume.

I bought more HBIO today at $8.41
Also bought some PDEX for $3.03

My IRA is now 99.9% invested in GMAI, HBIO, TRCI, NTST and API. I'm planning to trade in & out of TRCI and NTST as the opportunity arises.

My non-IRA is 120% invested in MTRX, QVDX, EONC, VLGC, PDEX.

regards ... stenz

[Michaelk005]

Whats your Interest in pdex? Just the sector its in or you like the earnings, personally i think the stock is overpriced. Would like to hear your take, thanks.

[Mi6op]

Hey Stenz, I know there is a link you have to the screen you use in this thread somewhere, but I have scoured it to no avail. Please repost a link to the screen you use.

THanks

[Karel]

Hello stenzrob, a happy new year to you!

Perhaps you could start a thread in reference with a link and an xplanation of your method. The discussion should perhaps stay here, to leave the reference section uncluttered.

Regards,

Karel

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Questions for you:

1) When there is an increase in stock price in short term (for example HBIO), there will be some pull back. How do you decide the new entry point if you want to add to your position?

Regards,

[stenzrob]

I finally sold the last of my original $6 TRCI today for $21.50, +258% in five months. I posted about it on the TRCI board. Also sold the last of my $4.90 NTST yesterday for $15.20, +210% in seven months. I said a few days ago that I would start trading these, which I will do until I decide on something that I want to hold again.

Sold the extra $8.41 HBIO from a few days ago for $9.31, just over 10% in two days. Still holding the other half, and will buyback on a good opportunity.

Those were all IRA positions, leaving the IRA temporarily at 44% cash.

Last Friday, I bought two chunks of MTRX on a low volume pullback, one chunk on margin, making my non-IRA 120% invested. That popped nicely this morning, so I sold the more expensive chunk for $19.50, for an 8% gain in two days and I'm back off of margin.

The PDEX I bought for $3.03 wasn't timed very well. For Michaelk005 who asked what I liked about PDEX: the same stuff that I always look for; revenue growth, solid financials, and increased average trading volume with high relative strength over the last three to six months. It could be considered overvalued if you look at the PE, but I don't really look at PE. A small cap just moving into profitability may have a very high PE. That's why I look at price/sales ratio. By that measure, it's reasonably valued. By the way, this stock is currently the smallest position in my portfolio.

I love VLGC, VLGC loves me. Now up over 90% since November 11th.

Screener link at Moneycentral (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF 136Z00F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L 70ZF307Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1% 2e5ZF234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice 36&Tickers=25)

Please keep in mind that this is a baseline screen. I play around with it from time to time, if it produces too few or too many candidates. Or requiring higher 3month RSI and lower 6 month. I've even started looking into using some calculated values, like (Price/Sales Ratio)/(Rev Growth).

regards ... stenz

link edited by Karel

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz,

Do you ever short? I'm strongly tempted to try again with TRCI...I managed to only lose $75 last time I tried, so I'm thinking tomorrow (or relatively soon, if it holds up tomorrow) might be a good place to make a few points if it floats back down to 19ish. What do you think...or anyone else, for that matter? No one really seems to talk about shorting or options around here.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Stenz, Do you ever short? ... No one really seems to talk about shorting or options around here.No, I don't short. I just got a book about options and started reading it, haven't done that yet, either.

[drchrislee]

Sold ABMC for 14.5% gain in 4 days (including weekends).
Sold EONC for 9.76% gain in 3.5 weeks (I waited too long; could of had it at 15%..oh well).

Thanks Stenz!

Now I just need to wait for the funds to settle to jump back in!

[stenzrob]

QVDX finally took off from it's $5 base, advancing about 10% to a new high on record volume, most of it in about ten minutes from 3:30 to 3:40 today.

Meanwhile, VLGC had a bit of a meltdown, dropping almost 10% during the last half hour. I was up 100% on this momentarily yesterday, now up only 73% since Nov 11 when I bought. Trying to decide whether to take the profits and run, or to buy more on the weakness. Volume today was lower than many of the recent advancing days, but that will mean nothing if there are not going to be any more advancing days.

I sold the rest of the MTRX that I bought just last Friday, for a 10% gain. They're reporting in the morning, and I have been burned a few times lately by early morning reports. I'd rather miss a possible gap up for profit than get hit by a gap down for a loss.

regards ... stenz

[tscanlon]

Stenz,

I'd appreciate your take on VLGC. I'm only in recently so this late afternoon swoon pulls me into a loss.

Thanks,
T

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

I'd appreciate your take on VLGC. I'm only in recently so this late afternoon swoon pulls me into a loss.

Thanks,
TThe drop was on low volume. My guess is that it will bounce back to at least $3.75. But it's just a guess...

[tscanlon]

Thanks Stenz.

I'll think I'll hang on unless it when't down another 5% from here.

T

[stenzrob]

Thanks Stenz.

I'll think I'll hang on unless it when't down another 5% from here.

TThis is why I try to stay pretty much evenly diversified in 5 or 6 positions. QVDX was standing still while others, like VLGC, were taking off. Today, QVDX made up for weakness in others. I will overweight something occasionally, but usually not for very long. Good luck to you, whatever you decide to do with VLGC.

[stenzrob]

I sold the rest of the MTRX that I bought just last Friday, for a 10% gain. They're reporting in the morning, and I have been burned a few times lately by early morning reports. I'd rather miss a possible gap up for profit than get hit by a gap down for a loss.MTRX missed and guided down for second half, pre-market trading is down a buck. Sometimes I feel like Neo in The MTRX, dodging bullets that appear to be in slow motion.

[stocks54]

Strenz,

What's the word on VLGC? Are you still holding it?

Regards,

[drchrislee]

Got in to TIII at $2.28 yesterday. CKCM at $5.58 today. Picked out from stenz's screen...looks like it may be on the rebound. We'll see!

[stenzrob]

Strenz,

What's the word on VLGC? Are you still holding it?

Regards,Yup, still holding it.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Strenz,

What's the word on VLGC? Are you still holding it?

Regards,Yup, still holding it.

So, in your own words, that means you don't have any better investments and you expect this one to recover? I got stopped out a while back for a decent gain, but I was still a bit pissed/jealous that it went higher. So, maybe in more than 4 words, you could explain why you think it'll recover?

Chris

[stenzrob]

So, in your own words, that means you don't have any better investments and you expect this one to recover? I got stopped out a while back for a decent gain, but I was still a bit pissed/jealous that it went higher. So, maybe in more than 4 words, you could explain why you think it'll recover?

ChrisI am seldom faulted for not being verbose enough, Chris.

I think VLGC will recover based on fundamentals and technicals.
For fundamentals (revenue, earnings), look at this page:
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/results/hilite.asp?Symbol=vlgc
Note how revenue is steadily increasing, and progress has been made in the last several quarters toward profitability.

For technicals (increasing price & volume), look at this 3 year weekly chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vlgc,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
Note the 10 week (50 day) moving average. Look at that same chart for stocks that have done incredibly well over the last year, like FARO, TRCI, MOBE, NTST, MTRX, IFLO, or any others you can think of.

My trading is a combination of long term and short term thinking, patience and decisiveness. Long term, I'm looking for stocks that can double, triple, or more over a period of six months, plus or minus a few months. I've done this with NTST, TRCI, and VLGC (so far). Stocks where the overall trend is intact, I will not flinch on declines over a few days like VLGC has had, or I will use it to buy extra trading shares. If VLGC breaks down again below $3 with volume, I might bail out to look for a better reentry, otherwise I am looking for somewhere between $6 and $8. Short term, I will sell immediately at a loss, small gain, whatever, based on news or trading activity, as I have done with CRIO, or recently MTRX.

Hope that helps ... stenz

[Mi6op]

I will sell immediately at a loss, small gain, whatever, based on news or trading activity,

What kind of trading activity would prompt you to sell premature?

[Mi6op]

I will sell immediately at a loss, small gain, whatever, based on news or trading activity,

What kind of trading activity would prompt you to sell premature?

[stenzrob]

If you're one of those that are nervous about the swings (potential for loss) in VLGC, today might be a good time to take your profits - bounce has been on lower volume than the recent selloff days ... stenz

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz,

You scare me when you're quiet. What's up?

Chris

[stenzrob]

Chris,
My portfolio has gone just about nowhere in the last several weeks. Gains in QVDX offset by losses (so far) in new positions in PDEX and CPTV. These both still have all the right characteristics, IMO, it's maybe just my timing that needs work. I sold out of NTST and TRCI near their peaks, don't know how much either of these has left in them. TRCI p/s is now over 5.0, a yellow flag for me. I sold VLGC the day I posted that it would be a good day to do that (+90% in 2 months). I might get back in it if the conditions were right, but that p/s ratio is also over 5 now. I also sold half my GMAI. HBIO continues to be a bright spot, I love the HBIO chart.

Basically, I'm just playing around with the same old positions waiting for something to cut loose. It is worth noting that several stocks from my screen that I didn't buy have taken off - NICE and IPAR in particular. Also, selling MTRX seems to have been a good idea, and taking the loss on LENS when I did saved a lot of additional pain.

Current positions: CPTV, PDEX, QVDX, EONC, API, HBIO, GMAI
I'm keeping one eye on ABMC that drchrislee took a nice profit on.

My IRA is currently almost 60% cash. Why? Because I observe that the nasdaq, after surging all the way to 2100 last Thursday on over 2.5B shares traded, has flattened out. Basically going up and down every other day with the down days on higher volume than the up days. I am just hoping for some good opportunities in stocks I like if there is a pullback in the overall market. My non-IRA account is almost fully invested, because if there are some opportunities, I can use margin there if I want to to take advantage.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$COMPQ,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pb40!d20,2!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

One last amusing note. Before I started using the screen I use now, I had set one up looking for new 52 week highs on increased volume, along with increased institutional ownership in the previous quarter. Based on this, I bought DDN, a trucking company, for $2.50 on 9/17/02. I sold it on a pop to $2.80 two days later for a 12% gain. At this point in time, my philosophy was different. I thought hitting quick 10 to 15% gains was the way to go. For the rest of the story, look at this chart, you'll see the pop I sold on there at the bottom:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=ddn,uu[h,a]waolyiay[de][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

[mrmarket]

Good to see Stenz back in action, I thought he was wondering what the HELE happened!! LOL!!!

[lindsayleeds]

I took a position in PDEX at $2.50 today. I couldn't bring myself to buy it at $3.00, but I believe $2.50 is reasonable. If it would drop to $2.25 I might sell off some BLTI to pick up some more.

I'm also long in BLTI, BDY, NTST, and PRZ. I like them all to double in a year.

Stenz, if you see anything hot, please do post. I'm always willing to sell a good company for a better one :)

[ChrisZXWJ]

Now that's more like it.

Kinda sucks on that one stock you sold early...but what would that annualized gain be? ;) I bought Foot Locker last year based on a research report I did for a class and made a quick 50% on it, only to look at it again a few days ago to find it almost double where I sold it at. Oh well. We've all done that.

Now, you feel the nasdaq is basing? I've been rather surprised that it keeps going up, I almost shorted QQQ when the nasdaq broke 2050...glad I didn't.

As far as individual stocks, I really don't have any new ideas and I'm getting antsy sitting on all the cash in my account. Good thing Casino Niagara's just a quick drive across the boarder...

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Thanks for your explanation on LENS. I decided to close the position with small loss. .

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Thanks for your explanation on LENS. I decided to close the position with small loss. .A small loss is much better than a large loss, which is what this would have turned out to be. Boy, did I call that one wrong! We both saved a bundle by taking the small loss that time. Live to trade another day.

[stenzrob]

What I like about PDEX -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077194&tid=pdex&sid=707 7194&mid=983

The last time I made a speech like this on a message board, it was TRCI when it was about $9. I made a similar speech about IFLO when it crossed $5 and people there were saying it had "gotten ahead of itself".

Glad to see you in both places, lindsayleeds. Hope I haven't steered you wrong on this one, but it looks like you've certainly done your homework on it. Some around here have had some rather unpleasant experiences on some of my picks. I never promised you a rose garden.

[stocks54]

Hey Strenz,

I am making good profit on VLGC, HBIO, and QVDX. Holding PDEX from $2.90. I probably will get more....

One more question though: In near future will you conside LENS again? Even if the price comes down to $4 rang?


Thanks for all your picks.

Regards,

[dblonde58]

ALVR Let me know what you think!

Diane

[thebign1]

Posted: Sat Jan 17, 2004 2:36 pm Post subject: Stenz.. what do you think of this one...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALVR Let me know what you think!

Diane


Hello Diane, ALVR looks like it has great potential! (7.95% increase Friday. Profit taking??) You should also check out MNDO and PTNR. I've seen all three posted on Lizard Kings Trading Post and they are all located in Israel.

Regards, Norm

[dblonde58]

I was out of Mr. Market stocks and stuff for about a month. My dad has Alzheimers and have been traveling out of state off and on to visit mom and help. I had told Ernie that I was following Lizards pics and that I had kind of changed my stock strategy BUT, I realized what an open mind Ernie has and how he loves to see others post other types of things on his board. It's refreshing to see such an open-minded type of person. I appreciate someone who shares and is not in this for his own gain. It's so refreshing! (speaking of Ernie of course!)

I am ALSO in PTNR AND MNDO

We might want to share more with one another! It appears we like the same type of stocks!

Regards!

Diane

[wsucougz]

This has to be a Stenz style pick --- GORX. Any insight? Anyone, anyone?

[thebign1]

Posted: Sun Jan 18, 2004 11:41 pm Post subject: GORX

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This has to be a Stenz style pick --- GORX. Any insight? Anyone, anyone?


wsucougz, If you run Stenz's "Accel RevQY+Price36" with the MSN Deluxe Screener GORX is on the list. You will find the link for it if you search back in one of his posts. After you run it you can save it for future reference. GORX is an excellant choice.

Regards, Norm

[dblonde58]

on ALVR or MNDO or PTNR please?

Diane

[thebign1]

Hello Diane, I currently own MNDO & PTNR. I think MNDO has the potential to triple in my opinion plus it pays a divie. I will keep adding to both of these. As for ALVR I would wait for a dip to get in if possible. What do you think caused the stock to gain 7.95% on Friday for no apparent reason? What's the next resistence?

Regards, Norm

[thebign1]

I just went back and checked the next resistence on Barcharts.com

Price Support Pivot Point Resistance
13.98 12.35 13.72 15.09

Also: Overall Average: 96% - Buy

This is good!

Regards, Norm

[dblonde58]

Which stock are you speaking of, norm?

diane

[thebign1]

Hello Diane, I was speaking of ALVR....Regards, Norm

[dblonde58]

Was just a huge "buy" sign for me on Friday. Hubby researched this WIMAX and knows a LOT about it. We agreed that it's a current trend.

Best wishes,

Diane

[drchrislee]

Well, CKCM finally broke through today...a nice 10% gain today. Earnings on thursday, expected to be very good, so hopefully that one will appreciate nicely.

Still holding TIII, which I should have let go a week ago, when it was up 17%, but I held onto it too long and watched it fall back to where I bought it, and then rise back up 10%...if only I had jumped out and then back in...oh well. :) I'm expecting this one is a good one to hold onto anyway.

*raises a glass to Stenz*

[stenzrob]

A nice way to start the short week -
EONC +16.58% to a new high on heavy volume
QVDX +6.10% to a new high on heavy volume

To answer some other earlier posts -
ALVR looks interesting, certainly has the momentum, but the price/sales ratio is over 6, so I will not be buying.
I had a position in GORX a while ago and took a loss on it back in August, I sure messed up there.

[drchrislee]

Wow...missed EONC...looks like I got out too early.

That's what I love about Stenz's method, it picks solid winners, not just random stocks that are on a run.

[stenzrob]

comments on ALVR or MNDO or PTNR please?Diane,
What I'll often do when someone mentions a stock I hadn't ever heard of before (because it hadn't ever shown up on my screen) is to run the screen at MSN, then put that ticker in the compare field, where I also keep some that have fallen off the screen or I picked up on for some other reason or from some other screen. This will pretty quickly point out why it wasn't on my list.

As $$$MR_MARKET$$$ said to me when I ran a few of my picks past him a long time ago, this doesn''t mean it's not a good stock, and you could do very well with it. It only means it doesn't fit a model that's consistently done very well for me (mostly) and I feel comfortable with.

ALVR has the qtr/qtr revenue growth I look for, but the yr/yr growth is negative. Strike 1. Also, as I mentioned before, the price/sales ratio is high by my standards. Strike 2.

MNDO, by the numbers I look at, is similar to ALVR. Growth is only a recent development, and the price/sales ratio is even higher.

PTNR has qtr/qtr revenue growth below my threshold, and the debt/equity ratio is over 10! They owe 10 times more than the market cap, and the current ratio is only 1.20. The earnings growth is amazing, but the risk of a default or a big dilution in exchange for capital to eliminate the debt is just too great for me.

Keep those ideas coming! ... stenz

[stocks54]

How do you do it man? I follow almost all your picks. I missed EONC and paid the price... :cry: Missed nice jump.

Nice ride with QVDX. Are you still holding the $12 price on QVDX?

Thanks for all your nice picks.

Regards,

[stenzrob]

How do you do it man? I follow almost all your picks. I missed EONC and paid the price... :cry: Missed nice jump.

Nice ride with QVDX. Are you still holding the $12 price on QVDX?

Thanks for all your nice picks.
How do I do it? You should know, my friend. I understand that was a rhetorical question, but I'll answer it anyway, with the concise stenz method -

Screen for revenue growth (35 to 40% qtr/qtr), solid financials (low debt), and momentum (increasing volume and high RSI). Price/sales ratio less than 3. Buy there.

Growth slows or price/sales ratio gets over 5. Sell there.

EONC and QVDX can each still double from here. Price/sales ratios are both about 2.5, qtr/qtr revenue growth for each is 35 or 40%. That would be about $12 for QVDX and $9 for EONC, unless their growth continues the next quarter and the numbers get recalculated. The best gains come from riding simultaneous revenue growth and price/sales ratio expansion.

Some stocks may continue to go up to higher price/sales ratios. Most do not. Stocks that do not meet one or more of my criteria could also do very well. The important thing for me is that the majority of the stocks identified by my screen WAY outperform the market.

[ChrisZXWJ]

If QVDX and EONC double from here, I just might have to name my first kid after you.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Actually, on a more serious note, I may "borrow" your ideas for a research project I have to do for one of my finance classes. I'm going to try to do some backtesting and see if I can find any past correlations or whatever, basically :) haven't really thought too much about it, but I like the whole idea of combining momentum with value...and I think it's the kind of stuff my professor will like.

I know you've done it before, but if you could, would you please post a link to the current version of your screener? I have three versions bookmarked right now, each producing slightly different results.

[stenzrob]

I know you've done it before, but if you could, would you please post a link to the current version of your screener? I have three versions bookmarked right now, each producing slightly different results.As well you should. The concepts remain the same, but you should play around with it to see if any particular screen is missing something really compelling. Here is a link to the one I have used most recently. The most interesting variation here is the addition of a minimum gross margin. This was actually triggered by some comments made by lindsayleeds on the PDEX board.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=7077194&tid=pdex&sid=707 7194&mid=971

Whenever I consider adding some new term, first I set it to "display only" and see what it looks like for the stocks currently discovered by the screen. I look to see if I really like anything that would be eliminated by setting a threshold. For example, this screen without the gross margin requirement, turns up JBSS, one of the $$$MR_MARKET$$$ picks, kind of a nutty pick.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L5ZF136Z00 F138Z05L3ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L85ZF30 7Z04L50ZF137Z05L0%2e3ZF134Z04L1%2e3ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF2 34Z05L10000000000ZF163Z04L30Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bP rice%20high3mo&Tickers=25

[stenzrob]

Growth slows or price/sales ratio gets over 5. Sell there.
...
Some stocks may continue to go up to higher price/sales ratios. Most do not.
TRCI is becoming a textbook ("Techni-momentu-mental Investing" by stenz) case. I sold when the price/sales ratio got over 5. They reported yesterday a sequential decline in revenue. Growth has slowed and the price/sales ratio just went up in a step function. Down 13% today at this hour. If anyone here is still holding TRCI, run, don't walk, to the nearest exit.

Is it possible that the price will bounce? Sure, maybe.
Is it probable that the stock will go on to new highs and stenz-like returns? I doubt it.

[stenzrob]

CPTV making a move.
Triple average volume reversal last Wednesday.
Triple average volume approach to resistance yesterday, where I bought some more, again at 12.50.

Today - above average daily volume before 11 am, approaching 52 week high.

[stenzrob]

I just bought some XTND for my IRA, for the usual reasons. Paid $6.02. It's possible that it could still have a pullback to the 20 or 50 day moving average, about 15 to 20% down from here. If this happens on lower volume than the recent advance, I will buy more. If this happens on roughly the same volume or more, I'll reconsider. Target is about $10, +66%. We'll see.

CLZR, which is on my screen but I never bought, jumped today on an FDA approval.

[tokyojoeskid]

everything about pdex looks great and Im thinking of jumping in with you, the only thing that worries me is the avg volume and it not being over 30k
but maybe I can get over that problem and purchase some,

aslo right now im fullyvested and about 5% on margin, Im a student but have a decent portfolio value and was wondering your take on how much you should look into going into margin?
I currently hold 6 postions and really dont want to sell any of them
qvdx in at 4 and 4.6, gmai in at 10.20, sndk in at 17(sold half today), utsi in at 34 (aslo 04 calls at 10.50), nutr in at 13.5, and hbio in at 6.50 and 9.65.
right now in those postions I would most willingly sell gmai.
understandly in a bull market margin is the best way to make a lot more money, but there is also more risk involved

nutr is treating me well its been unstoppable in the past week with a p/e of just 10 it still looks attractive.

[drchrislee]

I've noticed a lot of people posting regarding stenz's holdings...awhile back I started collecting this data (and made a post on it). So here is a spreadsheet updated with the most recent info on stenz's current port and closed items back to June or so of last year (the current prices on some stocks may be off - I haven't checked them all).

[drchrislee]

Doh, forgot the board won't let me post attachments. Here's a link:

http://www.clpayne.com/stocks2.xls

[stenzrob]

everything about pdex looks great and Im thinking of jumping in with you, the only thing that worries me is the avg volume and it not being over 30k
but maybe I can get over that problem and purchase some,

aslo right now im fullyvested and about 5% on margin, Im a student but have a decent portfolio value and was wondering your take on how much you should look into going into margin?
I currently hold 6 postions and really dont want to sell any of them
qvdx in at 4 and 4.6, gmai in at 10.20, sndk in at 17(sold half today), utsi in at 34 (aslo 04 calls at 10.50), nutr in at 13.5, and hbio in at 6.50 and 9.65.
right now in those postions I would most willingly sell gmai.
understandly in a bull market margin is the best way to make a lot more money, but there is also more risk involved

nutr is treating me well its been unstoppable in the past week with a p/e of just 10 it still looks attractive.PDEX volume is low but increasing. Just barely met my screen threshold. I can see why this gives you pause, but I think it will pan out.

I use margin on special occasions, but never for more than a few days.

Not familiar with all of your positions, but of mine, GMAI is the one I'd be tempted to sell, too. The reason: lowest gross margin.

[stenzrob]

Doh, forgot the board won't let me post attachments. Here's a link:Thanks again, doc. You can be my "Karel".

I sold all the NTST for $15.20 on 1/5/04
I sold all the TRCI for $21.50 on 1/6/04
I sold all the VLGC for $3.85 on 1/12/04
I bought additional PDEX for $2.50 on 1/15/04
I bought CPTV for $12.51 on 1/8, and again for $12.52 on 1/20.

Current holdings: CPTV, PDEX, QVDX, EONC, XTND, API, HBIO, GMAI

[drchrislee]

Thanks stenz...I guess I missed some. The spread sheet is updated.

[stenzrob]

Thanks for the spreadsheet, doc.
For my use, I added annualized gain to the current holdings.
One final correction/update -
There's still a piece of TRCI shown as open, I dumped ALL of it.

Posted about it on the TRCI board -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687572&tid=trci&sid=468 7572&mid=1619

[mrmarket]

Thanks for the spreadsheet, doc.
For my use, I added annualized gain to the current holdings.
One final correction/update -
There's still a piece of TRCI shown as open, I dumped ALL of it.

Posted about it on the TRCI board -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=4687572&tid=trci&sid=468 7572&mid=1619

Don't you know that there is no such thing as ANNUALIZED GAIN?? Do I have to ask Dr. Bruce to give us another lesson on investment arithmetic??

yeeeeeeeshhhh

[stenzrob]

Don't you know that there is no such thing as ANNUALIZED GAIN?? Do I have to ask Dr. Bruce to give us another lesson on investment arithmetic??

yeeeeeeeshhhhLOL, MM!
It can be calculated, therefore it must exist.
Please, please, do not ask Dr. Bruce.

[Tsevni98]

I am looking to pick up a stock tommorrow. CPTV does look interesting.

I was just wondering which Position you like the best

[stenzrob]

I am looking to pick up a stock tommorrow. CPTV does look interesting.

I was just wondering which Position you like the bestMy largest holding is QVDX, but I like them all. I try to stay balanced between them. Look at the last few days, for example. Yesterday, EONC and QVDX were up big, and CPTV and PDEX went nowhere. Today, QVDX and EONC retreated a bit and PDEX and CPTV were up. The net result is that the portfolio as a whole just keeps advancing. HBIO also just keeps chugging along. CPTV could be a good choice if you have to pick just one. The chart looks like it could be setting up for a breakout. As usual, my answer is longer and less clear than you were probably hoping for.

My method works on statistics, really. The kinds of stocks I pick will sometimes crash, but as long as over 80% of them do outstandingly well, and I limit the losses, the occasional clunker or bad timing doesn't get in the way of market-trouncing results. Check the spreadsheet that drchrislee posted. You'll see an occasional loser there, and I certainly hadn't intended for there to be any losers. I cannot lay claim to any kind of unbroken streak, unlike our gracious and sagacious host.

[stenzrob]

I just bought some XTND for my IRA, for the usual reasons. Paid $6.02. It's possible that it could still have a pullback to the 20 or 50 day moving average, about 15 to 20% down from here. If this happens on lower volume than the recent advance, I will buy more. If this happens on roughly the same volume or more, I'll reconsider. Target is about $10, +66%. We'll see.
Changed my mind - sold the XTND for 5.95. Doing additional research, I find XTND embroiled in lengthy and contentious patent battle with PUMA. News flow on the case had been slightly favoring XTND, but news out this morning leans the other way slightly. I decided I wouldn't live with the uncertainty and just got the hell back out before any serious damage was done.

[George]

Hi Stenz
I have been following your writings regularly since early August '03, but unluckily, had only invested in GORX where I did take a loss.

However, today I have taken a position in CPTV at 13.00. I also intend to put some money in your other picks in the next week. Hope works out this time.

Finally, I would like to ask you, if I have to choose only three more stocks which ones you believe they should be out of the remaining six. Or would you suggest to wait a bit for some new opportunities to appear.

Regards

[stenzrob]

Hi Stenz
I have been following your writings regularly since early August '03, but unluckily, had only invested in GORX where I did take a loss.

However, today I have taken a position in CPTV at 13.00. I also intend to put some money in your other picks in the next week. Hope works out this time.

Finally, I would like to ask you, if I have to choose only three more stocks which ones you believe they should be out of the remaining six. Or would you suggest to wait a bit for some new opportunities to appear.

RegardsGeorge, I hope CPTV works out better for you than GORX. If we had just had the patience to hold onto GORX, it wouldn't have been a loss at all. That would have been the $$$M_M$$$ strategy. But for every GORX where I take a loss and could have had a gain, there is a LENS where I take a loss that could have been a disaster. It might be an interesting exercise to add to drchrislees spreadsheet a column for current price on closed positions, to see if I got out near the top, escaped disaster, or goofed up completely. (This would be a little misleading in the case of TRCI, where I kept selling at a profit and rebuying the same bunch of shares for less again.)

I would rather not give advice on which 3 out of 6 would be better. I discussed the concept of statistics on my portfolio. They all look good to me. As far as waiting, I belive that my record clearly shows that my stock picking ability is awesome, and my timing is often sub-optimal, to put it mildly.

[stenzrob]

Sold ABMC for 14.5% gain in 4 days (including weekends) ... Doc, What's going on with ABMC, man?

[drchrislee]

Sold ABMC for 14.5% gain in 4 days (including weekends) ... Doc, What's going on with ABMC, man?

Well, not sure...earnings will be announced mid Feb, maybe people got scared, maybe a lot of big investors were taking profits. Anyone else have info?

Everything still seems to be the same...but with today's action the chart doesn't seem to fit stenz's pattern anymore I think. I'd be wary of this one for a bit.

[Tsevni98]

in at 6.15 . Hopefully it treats me right .

Looks like earnings are due on 2/2 . Hopefully it will be in the 7s by then.

[stenzrob]

Sold ABMC for 14.5% gain in 4 days (including weekends) ... Doc, What's going on with ABMC, man?

Well, not sure...earnings will be announced mid Feb, maybe people got scared, maybe a lot of big investors were taking profits. Anyone else have info?

Everything still seems to be the same...but with today's action the chart doesn't seem to fit stenz's pattern anymore I think. I'd be wary of this one for a bit.
The stock drops big on very heavy volume, and then the announcement comes at the end of the day that the CEO, who's been on the job since all the way back in October, 2003 was summarily canned. Hmmmm ...

[stenzrob]

WITS, which I am watching since it comes up on my screen, just posted a reasonably nice report tonight, and was up after hours. They compete with NICE, which is also on my screen. I don't own either one ... yet.

I really wish that WITS was a $$$MR_MARKET$$$ pick, just to see what kind of commentary we'd get for it. "Can I get a witness?"

[stenzrob]

in at 6.15 . Hopefully it treats me right .

Looks like earnings are due on 2/2 . Hopefully it will be in the 7s by then.I hope so, too, tsevni. I really like QVDX.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600604485&tid=xcar&sid= 1600604485&mid=9209

[Tsevni98]

Hi just ran the screener that you posted up top:

http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L5ZF136Z00 F138Z05L3ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L85ZF30 7Z04L50ZF137Z05L0%2e3ZF134Z04L1%2e3ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF2 34Z05L10000000000ZF163Z04L30Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bP rice%20high3mo&Tickers=25


QVDX does not show up. Why is this? Is it because QVDX latest earnings have not been released?

THanks TSEVNI

[stenzrob]

Hi just ran the screener that you posted up top:

QVDX does not show up. Why is this? Is it because QVDX latest earnings have not been released?
Several of the stocks I'm holding no longer show up on the screen results. In order to see why, or to see how any other tips that you might get from other sources compare, enter the ticker into the "Compare With:" box and click "Add". If the stock doesn't show up because of weak revenue growth, high debt, low gross margin, or high price/sales, I would be concerned. In QVDX's case, it fell off the screen because the 3 month RSI is currently only 72. If you go back far enough, you'd see that when I owned NTST, I pointed out that it was not on the screen only because of a weak 3 month RSI, but I really liked the companies performance. That was before the stock tripled. The screen criteria are more like guidelines than rules, as Capt. Barbosa would say.

Hope that helps ... stenz

[stenzrob]

WITS, which I am watching since it comes up on my screen, just posted a reasonably nice report tonight, and was up after hours. They compete with NICE, which is also on my screen. I don't own either one ... yet.
Bought some WITS this morning for $9.50. Market reaction to what looks to me like very nice resluts isn't always what I expect, so I had placed an order for it at $9.10, but it never got down there. I kept raising my bid, chasing it a bit, which I don't normally do, but it looked some serious volume coming in.

[stenzrob]

Bought some HSKA today at $3.02. It filled in lots of little chunks, some odd-sized.

The WITS and the HSKA are in my IRA, which had been sitting at over 50% cash for the last several weeks since liquidating positions in NTST and TRCI. Still at 35% cash, positions in that accout are roughly equally split between WITS, HSKA, HBIO, GMAI and API. Current thinking is to keep that cash position in case of an opportunity.

[stenzrob]

Well, CKCM finally broke through today...a nice 10% gain today. Earnings on thursday, expected to be very good, so hopefully that one will appreciate nicely.

*raises a glass to Stenz*Congratulations, doc. CKCM was higher on the percentage gainers list today than my WITS, and I didn't even get into WITS quite at the bottom. Hope you were still holding CKCM for the gap up.

*raises a glass to drchrislee*

[Tsevni98]

I bought HSKA a couple of months ago after REv SHark called it a CANSLIM stock., I guess with 50% y o y revenue growth that can happen.

We will see what the earnings have in store next month.


I also own DITC which I am prepared to dump once it pops on the move through key resistance of 25.

Maybe I can getta WITS then.

[puffmoon]

Hey guys.... How much consideration do you put on the VIX and VXN (volatility index)... The VIX has been falling for some time as the market has been rising... Wat do you think?
I think there should be a correction, but good stocks will do well (that is the earnings winners)... I have over half my portfoliio in cash just waiting... But I did grab some wits and hska today. Also I own some HOTT and some ohi and ies and pdex.

[Tsevni98]

The presentation attached below explains why HSKA is a hidden gem.


The presentation is from a conference they did in November. There used to be audio that explained every slide not sure what happened to it.

I found the presentation really showed how under valued this company is. HSKAs growth plan is breathtaking.

To start:

Heska Announces Q3 Results - 50% Product Revenue Growth

Gross Margin on Product Sales Increase; 61% Bottom Line Improvement

heres the link to the presentation:

http://www.corporate-ir.net/ireye/ir_site.zhtml?ticker=hska&script=10959&layout=-6&item_id='http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/NSD/hska/presentations/InvestorPres121103.pdf'

[jay_why_dee]

Tsevni98

Posted: Thu Jan 22, 2004 2:51 am Post subject: Stenz what is your largest holding?

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I was just wondering which "POSITION" you like the best



"Doggie" style.......arf,arf

[drchrislee]

Congratulations, doc. CKCM was higher on the percentage gainers list today than my WITS, and I didn't even get into WITS quite at the bottom. Hope you were still holding CKCM for the gap up.

*raises a glass to drchrislee*

Thanks stenz. They had a very good earnings report, which pushed them through. I'm sitting on about 40% gain now...tempting to sell, as I'm eyeing WITS, but I may stick around with it. :)

[drchrislee]

Got into HSKA myself today at $2.88. Here we go!

[stocks54]

Guys,

Any idea what's up with PDEX? Dropped quite a bit with close to twice the average volume.

[drchrislee]

Guys,

Any idea what's up with PDEX? Dropped quite a bit with close to twice the average volume.

Well, PDEX normally has a pretty small volume, so one or several large holders could have swayed things pretty drastically by selling off I guess. I haven't heard any other news on it.

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, I am still holding some VLGC because I got in way to late.
The stock jumped 7.89% near the end of the day & they announced their earnings call (Feb. 10) after the close. I think I should bail before earnings. This would give me just about a 15% gain w/out the cost of the trade. I don't think this stock has gotten a second wind. Any opinion would be helpfull. (I should be happy to make 15% on any stock) :D

As for QVDX, I think this horse needs to run. I was in at $4 & out @ $5.35
then back in at $5 (I bought more the second time) This stock should at least double from hear. :D

TIA...Regards, Norm

[stocks54]

QVDX took a blow today. Not sure if it's due to approaching earning date...

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, Today I sold VLGC @ $4.35 :D & doubled my shares of QVDX @ $5.74 :D So that makes my average price for QVDX $5.37.

Regards, Norm

[tscanlon]

Stenz,

What are your thoughts on VLGC? I'm up 18% but still seems to be moving nicely. Not sure I want to hold through earnings (in two weeks) though, I have seen too many stocks get crushed for meeting or barely missing earnings targets.

I appreciate your comments.

T

[stocks54]

Guys,

Any idea what's up with PDEX? Dropped quite a bit with close to twice the average volume.

Well, PDEX normally has a pretty small volume, so one or several large holders could have swayed things pretty drastically by selling off I guess. I haven't heard any other news on it.

I am thinking of taking a loss on my position and get out of it. not sure what's going on with PDEX. Pric down close to 18% (including after hour drop.)

[SuperVoy]

Hey guys.... How much consideration do you put on the VIX and VXN (volatility index)... The VIX has been falling for some time as the market has been rising... Wat do you think?



I got this excerpt from a Money.com article (http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/26/commentary/bidask/bidask/index.htm) about the VIX:

What implied volatility really measures is how much of a premium
investors are willing to put on options, which give them the ability
to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a stock or index at a set
price. The more options cost, the more investors expect prices to
move. Hence implied volatility -- which differs from actual (or
realized) volatility.

The favored way of measuring implied volatility is what used to be
the Chicago Board Options Exchange's volatility index, or VIX. (The
CBOE rejiggered it recently, so now we watch the old VIX while we
wait for the new one to get a bit more history behind it.) In recent
years, whenever the VIX fell below 20, Wall Streeters would start to
worry that investors weren't worrying nearly enough -- and that the
market was vulnerable as a result.

The VIX hasn't been above 20 since November. Friday, it closed at
14.87, the lowest it's been since April 1997.

But here's where it's important to remember that what the VIX really
measures is what options cost -- not fear and not even, when it comes
down to it, how volatile investors think the market is going to be.
Because it turns out that there is a big factor that could be pushing
options prices: A big jump in the issuance of convertible bonds.

Convertible bonds are bonds that give investors the option of
converting them into stocks at a predetermined price. Put the
emphasis on "option" -- they are, in essence, not all that different
from call options. Low interest rates have made them a favored method
of raising capital among companies in recent years and investors who
like their yield characteristics have been gobbling them up.

In 2003, according to Thomson Financial, convertible issuance skipped
up to $96 billion from $60 billion in 2002. There is, as a result, a
bigger supply of call options floating around the market. When supply
rises, prices fall. This pushes the VIX lower.

[stocks54]

Stenz,

You scare me when you're quiet. What's up?

Chris

I don't know about you but now I am scared when I don't see Stenz's comment on this board or on yahoo board...

[ChrisZXWJ]

I wasn't going to say anything this time...but I do wonder where he is.

[tokyojoeskid]

Stenz what do you think about selling gmai and buying hlex, hlex earnings looked great and they kept their forecast in line to meet or exceed next quarter. For some reason hlex just got rocked
thanks
tjk

[tokyojoeskid]

sold gmai for 11.92 about an 18% gain, bought hlex at 10.17
tjk

[stenzrob]

I don't know about you but now I am scared when I don't see Stenz's comment on this board or on yahoo board...
My father-in-law passed away early Tuesday morning. The funeral was yesterday, and I am now relaxing at my sister-in-law's house in Houston. Until today, I had no idea what my stock positions were doing, and it really didn't seem to matter much. I'll be back into it next week. It seems like y'all have things pretty much under control here.

regards ... stenz

[tscanlon]

Stenz,

Sorry to hear about your father-in-law.

Did anyone see PDEX, up 20% today in advance of earnings with 4X average volume? Not sure if I should bail before earnings or not.

Stenz if you check in, give us your thoughts.

T

[drchrislee]

I'm terribly sorry to hear that Stenz..best of luck.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

Sorry to hear about your father-in-law.

Did anyone see PDEX, up 20% today in advance of earnings with 4X average volume? Not sure if I should bail before earnings or not.

Stenz if you check in, give us your thoughts.

TThanks to all for the condolences received.

I sure as heck noticed PDEX today. Before I left last Tuesday morning, I put in some stop loss sell orders on some positions and some lowball buy orders on others. Believe it or not, I actually bought additional PDEX for $2.30 last Wednesday afternoon, and didn't even realize it until today.

Bail before earnings? I'm not planning to on this one. You never know what might happen, though. I should have bailed before LENS reported, and I'm glad I did on MTRX and TRCI, but have also had some very pleasant gaps up on others at times when I held through the report. So let me say this about that ... you should have in mind revenue and earnings targets that if the company produces keeps the growth trend in place. What kind of revenue and earnings would make for a favorable qtr/qtr comparison? If the company meets or beats your expectations, hold or even buy more (or buy back if you bailed before the report). If the company does not meet your expectations, sell if you didn't bail before, and if you already bailed, breathe a sigh of relief. Whatever the decision, know your criteria ahead of time and make the decision quickly and without regret. I have done this in the past for several stocks with good result. In some cases, I have seen a report come out for a company I was holding, didn't like it, sold immediately (after-hours) and had the stock open the next morning 20% below where I sold. Note: This usually only works for companies reporting after the close, since after hours liquidity is still almost reasonable. The reason I bailed out of MTRX a while back before their report was that the report was due the next morning, and pre-open liquidity is much worse for some reason. This burned me big time on LENS, and would have again on MTRX if I hadn't pre-emptively sold.

Is it possible for the market reaction to be different than yours to whatever the results are? Definitely. In fact, if the results aren't what you expect, and the price goes up, you get to sell for more. If the results are what you were looking for and are not well received, you can buy on the weakness. Watch the volume, though. You don't want to attempt the "catch a falling knife" trick.

Another thing to consider here is the valuation, and correlates to my sell target of price/sales ratio over 5.0. A high valuation indicates that the market is expecting continued strong growth. The phrase "priced for perfection" is often used here. At the time of TRCI's last report, the p/s was already over 5. Anything less than continued or accelerating strong growth would be met with a selloff, and that's what happened. PDEX is selling for p/s of 1.71, and a fairly low price/book ratio. Not much inflated expectation to disappoint there.

[stenzrob]

Believe it or not, I actually bought additional PDEX for $2.30 last Wednesday afternoon, and didn't even realize it until today.Just sold that extra PDEX lot for $3.20. +39%, one week.
Still holding my original PDEX position from $3.03.

[tokyojoeskid]

Stenz you think eonc is a buy at these levels and why the bounce, oversold?
tjk

[stenzrob]

Stenz you think eonc is a buy at these levels and why the bounce, oversold?
tjkI'm not sure what's going on with EONC. It might be a buy at these levels, but I'd rather see it going up than down. I already have some that I'm holding, I'm not buying more right now.

I did just sell my WITS for $11.60 that I bought for $9.10 a couple of weeks ago. +22% in two weeks. I might be leaving some on the table here, but I was just feeling the need to sell something.

[drchrislee]

I'm not sure what's going on with EONC. It might be a buy at these levels, but I'd rather see it going up than down. I already have some that I'm holding, I'm not buying more right now.

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss. :(

[stenzrob]

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss. :(Somebody said that on the Yahoo message board, I put no value on it. I'm having a bad week - response to PDEX, CPTV and GMAI reports were not very favorable. The EONC plunge hurts, but I am still holding.

[stenzrob]

I heard this morning that they missed the quarter, though it's not official news yet, so take with a grain of salt. The stock is plummeting...I may just get out of this one while I can and take a loss. :(Somebody said that on the Yahoo message board, I put no value on it. I'm having a bad week - response to PDEX, CPTV and GMAI reports were not very favorable. The EONC plunge hurts, but I am still holding.drchris, Did you catch the new theory on the Yahoo EONC board about ChinaVest distributees liquidating? If that's the reason, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals or the latest quarter, then the current plunge in EONC should be seen as a buying opportunity - once it stops, which we'll recognize by a dropoff in the selling volume.

The good news is ... EONC is becoming a smaller portion of my total portfolio with each passing day!

I've had a pretty bad week overall, but I try not to worry about 1 week. From 8 Jan to 3 Feb, my portfolio was up 7%, while the nasdaq was flat or down a few %. From 3 Feb to today's close, I gave it all back, while the nasdaq is down a few more %. Overall, I'm still beating the market, by a lot when it's up, by a little bit when it's down. I'm OK with that.

I read a lot of good investment philosophy recently at fredhager.com, I recommend starting at this link, and just keep clicking the "next" links at the bottom. Fred's selection criteria is almost completely different than mine, but some of the philosophy is right on, in my opinion. One area where his philosophy and mine definitely agree is about looking for consistently high revenue growth.
http://www.fredhager.com/index.cfm?CategoryID=44&ContentID=319

[stenzrob]

GMAI profiled here today - target $20.
http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?column=The+Guru's+Corner&siteid=mktw

"In 2004, investors who invest in market leaders delivering high growth rates at a reasonable valuation will be the real winners."

Exactamundo!

[Mi6op]

Stenz and everyone else what do you think of PRFT I found it running Stenz's screen. Rev's growing at 4x%, P/S under 2, good PR just came out about them volume growing. Seems like a good number of positives.

[stenzrob]

Stenz and everyone else what do you think of PRFT I found it running Stenz's screen. Rev's growing at 4x%, P/S under 2, good PR just came out about them volume growing. Seems like a good number of positives.This looks pretty good, mi6. In my extensive ten second research, the only negative I see is that the company's guidance for Q1'04 is for less revenue than any of the quarters of '03. ?

[Mi6op]

I agree I think i'm going to put in a buy order for 3.75 or somethign like that and see if I can get some shares.

[rensz]

I am interested in this company. It is currently profitable. Revenue increases sequentially 5% to 8% in the recent 4 quarters. The last quarter revenue (44.3M) is 28% higher over the same quarter prior year. Company anticipated the next Q will be 44.5 to 46M and earnings 9 to 10 cents. Its current price just $8 and price to revenue ratio is around 1 and p/e around 20. What do you guys think? Any comments are appreciated (both pro and con). Thank you.

[Mi6op]

Are you talking about PRFT? If so the price is 4.00 at close today not 8.

[rensz]

Beside PRFT, I also interested in INVX (Innovex). It seems a value play to me at $8. I am going to take a position soon. Any opinions?

[Mi6op]

looks like prft is up to 4.10 already in early hours. Hope my limit goes through as I am wary of jumping early anymore I seem to always buy at the peaks.

[drchrislee]

drchris, Did you catch the new theory on the Yahoo EONC board about ChinaVest distributees liquidating?

Yup, I watch that board more than this one! While it doesn't change fundamentals, it may adversely affect business. Potentially scary...but I'm holding on. I'm realizing now that I probably should have waited a bit longer to get in on EONC, as it's a very good buy now.

I took a beating this week too. :(

[stenzrob]

Bought some more GMAI this morning for $11.34.
Looks like it could be coming around for another run.
We'll see.

[tokyojoeskid]

bought atvi today mostly based on technicals. Fundamentals dont look to shabby either, but chart looks great.
what you guys think
-tjk

btw stenz before you made the post about gmai i also picked some up:) I did want to see more volume on this run but oh well

[stenzrob]

bought atvi today mostly based on technicals. Fundamentals dont look to shabby either, but chart looks great.
what you guys think
-tjkATVI looks very good. As usual, I quickly compared this to all the criteria in my screen, and the only thing keeping it out of the results section is the 3 month RSI being slightly low. Everything else is there - revenue growth, increasing volume, good gross margin, no debt, etc. They just announced a deal with Marvel, that could help out, too. Technically, it's got a nice trend going for the year.

The test of whether this pays off big time or not will be at about $23, where it turned around and collapsed in late spring '02. There might be some resistance there - people who've been holding for years waiting to breakeven. Does that strategy make sense? Heck, no, but it's what a lot of people do. Or maybe the resistance will be 15% above the high of a few years ago - some people will hold onto a losing position for years waiting to get a 15% return. LOL!

[tokyojoeskid]

that last bit gave me a good laugh
stenz you a funny man
tjk

[mrmarket]

bought atvi today mostly based on technicals. Fundamentals dont look to shabby either, but chart looks great.
what you guys think
-tjk. Or maybe the resistance will be 15% above the high of a few years ago - some people will hold onto a losing position for years waiting to get a 15% return. LOL!

That may be true but one of us is thirsty and the other one is delivering the brew...need I say more?

[tokyojoeskid]

YOU ARE THE MAN
but toinght we drink 40's and some stones need I say more
come join the party in Collegestation
onward atvi, gmai, utsi, qvdx, hlex, hbio, nutr
by the way wsbk seems to be unstoppable and thats why your picture is on this website and not mine.
-a very healthy tjk

[ChrisZXWJ]

have to admit, I found that last little bit quite amusing too. I don't think I've ever held on to a losing position that long, but I held on to a breakeven position for well over a year (HANS) only to see it shoot up 100% a few months after I sold...

[stenzrob]

That may be true but one of us is thirsty and the other one is delivering the brew...need I say more?I think that about covers it.

[stenzrob]

I did just sell my WITS for $11.60 that I bought for $9.10 a couple of weeks ago. +22% in two weeks. I might be leaving some on the table here, but I was just feeling the need to sell something.
Got my WITS back this morning.
Will wait here for snide remarks about that!

[tokyojoeskid]

my hlex purchase from last week at 10.1 is looking "swell" as my finance professor would phrase it

atvi still looks like a great buy

tjk

[Coop]

Yo Stenzrob..
I cleaned house last week but still holding onto QVDX (up 31%.)
What are you bullish on this week?
Another great one for me - EQIX (up 40%). They are well positioned in internet infrastructure, and will benefit greatly as broadband continues to expand. Check it out. (This was a George Gilder pick.)
All the best,
Coop

[tokyojoeskid]

is it too late to buy?
excellent quarter very healthy volume the past three days.
tjk

[stenzrob]

Yo Stenzrob..
I cleaned house last week but still holding onto QVDX (up 31%.)
What are you bullish on this week?
Another great one for me - EQIX (up 40%). They are well positioned in internet infrastructure, and will benefit greatly as broadband continues to expand. Check it out. (This was a George Gilder pick.)
All the best,
CoopThis week - PDEX looking pretty ripe. Of course, I continue to like QVDX.
I did a very quick check on EQIX. Revenue acceleration looks very good, but the debt load is high, and the current ratio is about 1.0. This means they are just barely meeting their bills.

[stocks54]

Strenz,

Any comments on QVDX price movement? It's unable to cross the 6.30 resistance level. PDEX is all set for nice jump...

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Any comments on QVDX price movement? It's unable to cross the 6.30 resistance level. PDEX is all set for nice jump...
QVDX - give it time, I believe it will pass that resistance, just as it has other resistance points.
PDEX - I agree.
CTRA - I just bought some of this for $4.35.

regards ... stenz

[ChrisZXWJ]

hey stenz, are you still holding API? I'm getting bored of it.

[stenzrob]

hey stenz, are you still holding API? I'm getting bored of it.
Yes.
Me, too.

[tokyojoeskid]

qvdx earnings tomm

[stenzrob]

qvdx earnings tomm
QVDX revenue up 68% over the year ago quarter, gross margin improved, forward guidance is excellent. Read the report. Price is moving up immediately in after hours trading after the report was issued. This could seriously accelerate my early retirement plan, in a good way.

[stocks54]

WOW!!! stock already trading at 6.50 AH. If they maintain the pace, price will be in double figure very soon.

AS always thanks STENZ for great pick... You are the man....

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Every now and then, one pays off ... I hope you'll excuse me when I say "YEEHA!"

From InPlay -
"4:52PM Quovadx beats by $0.01, guides higher (QVDX) 6.00 +0.03: Reports Q4 (Dec) loss of $0.01 per share, $0.01 better than the Reuters Research consensus of ($0.02); revenues rose 68.6% year/year to $26.3 mln vs the $23.0 mln consensus. Company sees Q1 EPS of $0.01-0.03 vs consensus of $0.02 on revenues of $30-32 mln, consensus is $26 mln. For Y04, company sees EPS of $0.17-0.20 vs consensus of $0.14 on revenues of $130-135 mln, consensus is $117.6 mln."

Expecting analyst upgrades and perhaps some new coverage in the next few weeks.

Possible 12 month targets by my calculation
- EPS 20 cents x PE 60 = $12.
- Rev $130M x PS 4.0 / 33M shares = $15.75

These are not sell targets - the high gross margin with crossover to profitability next quarter means that if the revenue growth continues, the EPS will be rising very very fast.

This one will go far, I think. $12, $15, $20, etc.

[ChrisZXWJ]

bye bye api, hello more qvdx :)

[ChrisZXWJ]

actually, maybe not...the API report wasn't bad at all...I just don't think it's getting any attention. As I mentinoed before, I held a stock that was producing amazing reports, but not getting any attention and therefore not going anywhere. Then I sold..and it went up 120%. :evil: ...so Stenz, if you were to sell one of the following to buy more QVDX, which would it be?

API GMAI HBIO HSKA ...or I could piss off my mom and sell some of the ETF's I promised I wouldn't sell :D

What do you think?

[stenzrob]

actually, maybe not...the API report wasn't bad at all...I just don't think it's getting any attention. As I mentinoed before, I held a stock that was producing amazing reports, but not getting any attention and therefore not going anywhere. Then I sold..and it went up 120%. :evil: ...so Stenz, if you were to sell one of the following to buy more QVDX, which would it be?

API GMAI HBIO HSKA ...or I could piss off my mom and sell some of the ETF's I promised I wouldn't sell :D

What do you think?Ooh, that's a tough choice, Chris. I'd have to pick GMAI out of that group. The API report was pretty good, projecting healthy growth ahead. The stock has shown very good support at $2. I'd hate to sell it here, only to have it pop suddenly. Out of that list, I'd probably pick GMAI to sell.

[thebign1]

Hey Stenz, Thanks for QVDX, :D I'm glad I got back in. I have one question, where did CTRA come from, I don't see it in your screen?

Regards, Norm :D

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, Thanks for QVDX, :D I'm glad I got back in. I have one question, where did CTRA come from, I don't see it in your screen?

Regards, Norm :DYou're welcome, Norm. CTRA showed up on my screen about a month ago, I liked it and added it to my watchlist, and just, uh, watched it. Then it fell off the screen due to drop in price resulting in low 3 month RSI. I bought it when it looked like it was starting to move up again off the support it had found just above $4. I had been hoping to pick it up for around $4, and actually had a buy order in at $4.01 for about a week. The press release about the partnership with SAP made it unlikely that I was going to get it that cheap, so I "bought on the news". It's working out OK so far.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I just dumped all my API for $2.11 and all my GMAI for $11.52.

[moemaynard]

I sold off my BEL today...was tired of it doing nothing. I am looking into QVDX, PMTI, and even VLGC again. What do you think of these three right now and what would you reccomend? I need a winner!!

[drchrislee]

FYI - I just dumped all my API for $2.11 and all my GMAI for $11.52.

Mind if I ask why? Looks like GMAI did well for you, but API got between 1 and 5% gain. What triggered?

[stenzrob]

FYI - I just dumped all my API for $2.11 and all my GMAI for $11.52.

Mind if I ask why? Looks like GMAI did well for you, but API got between 1 and 5% gain. What triggered?Dumped both for the same basic reason in a way, and it has nothing to do with how well they did for me in the past - I don't think they're going much of anywhere from here.

API's last report was acceptable but not noteworthy, trading volume has trailed off, I just no longer had much confidence in it. I would be willing to buy this one again as a value stock, but it just has no momentum.

GMAI's last report was very good, but it seemed to have very little effect on the stock. Technically, it's looking ready to break down through the 50 day and have a correction. I have mentioned this one several times as the one to sell out of the current holdings if you had to make a choice, due primarily to low gross margins.

After my last few buys - getting the WITS back, and buying CTRA, I was close to 100% invested in my IRA and over 100% in the non-IRA. GMAI and API both came out of my IRA to generate a cash position to be able to move on any opportunity that might arise with something on my watchlist.

[drchrislee]

Dumped both for the same basic reason in a way, and it has nothing to do with how well they did for me in the past - I don't think they're going much of anywhere from here.

Interesting.. I'm feeling the same way about TIII and a little about EONC and HSKA. HSKA I'm waiting for earnings on. The thing that bugs me about TIII is that when I got in it was a good momentum play and I should have sold it, but it dropped and since then has done nothing.

Btw, do you mind saying how much you got your WITS back for? I didn't see it in your post.

[stenzrob]

Interesting.. I'm feeling the same way about TIII and a little about EONC and HSKA. HSKA I'm waiting for earnings on. The thing that bugs me about TIII is that when I got in it was a good momentum play and I should have sold it, but it dropped and since then has done nothing.

Btw, do you mind saying how much you got your WITS back for? I didn't see it in your post.Average of $10.98

[stenzrob]

By the way, it's really not worth mentioning or tracking and doesn't have anything to do with my long term view, but in the interest of full disclosure, I've been trading a small chunk of PDEX. Holding a core position, and using limit orders to trade the small chunk. I've been in&out a few times in the last couple of weeks - selling at $3.20 or $3.15 and buying at $3.00 or $2.85. You may have noticed by now that most of my positions I hold for at least several months, but in order to qualify for ETrade's PowerETrade service, including a nice level 2 streamer with streamlined order entry, I need to make 25 trades per quarter. This is how I do it, and generate a little extra return.
I'll do this with stocks like TRCI that was swinging wildly, or with stocks that may be establishing a base. If I'm watching the trading activity anyway to get a feel for whather it's time to load up or unload, I may as well capitalize.

[ChrisZXWJ]

What do you pay in commissions with that fancy ETrade stuff? I have to admit, I was a little reluctant at first, but I'm loving Freetrade. It's nice to take $5000, make 2% and sell in a day with no commissions. Makes me happy :)

[stenzrob]

What do you pay in commissions with that fancy ETrade stuff? I have to admit, I was a little reluctant at first, but I'm loving Freetrade. It's nice to take $5000, make 2% and sell in a day with no commissions. Makes me happy :)$9.99 per trade. It doesn't hurt much.

[stenzrob]

What do you pay in commissions with that fancy ETrade stuff? I have to admit, I was a little reluctant at first, but I'm loving Freetrade. It's nice to take $5000, make 2% and sell in a day with no commissions. Makes me happy :)Freetrade looks interesting, Chris. I've gotten used to having level 2, so that would cost me $14.99/month at FreeTrade, compared to $139.90 in commisions I paid last month to ETrade. But if I have a problem, I can call someone on the phone.

[Tsevni98]

any idea how long it takes for moneycentral to pickup QVDX earnings? Waiting for it to show back up on your screener.

[Mi6op]

Now that you've free'd up some money now Stenz what are your plans now? I just ran a screen comperable to yours and PRFT comes up 4th on the list I like this stock and especially under $4 I have a buy at 3.85 but think that is wishfull thinking, however it is flirting with $4 which I think is a possible support level from this week's actions.

Rumaging through the stocks that have turned up I must say that this is the only one that trips any triggers off hand.

[moemaynard]

I just checked it out and I am going to do this!! My only question is how long does it take to settle a trade and can you sell a stock you bought with unsettled funds before the settlement date?

Do you have a margin account? This looks like a traders dream!!

[puffmoon]

Stenz-
I've been using freetrade for sometime now. It's pretty good and the execution is decent, I think it's the same as ameritrade. I just use limit orders for everything. They also have ach deposit and withdrawl, which is nice. I've never had trouble shorting anything as well. The only downside (which i think is anywhere), is this... If you make more than 4 trades in 5 days they label you a "pattern daytrader" and want you to keep $25G in the account. ...

[moemaynard]

Is that 4 trades or 4 buy and sells?

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz,
To be honest, the only time I've ever had a problem, I e-mailed them and got a response within 10 minutes...maybe even faster than I would have calling someone on the phone. Needless to say, I was pretty impressed. I've managed to avoid being labeled a "pattern day trader"

Moemaynard,
All accounts are margin accounts...and you can trade anything you want. Although, there are commissions for options. Only stocks are free/really cheap. I'm not 100% sure about how the trading works, I don't trade that often or really have all that much money to trade, but I'm sure if you e-mailed them, they'd give you a quick response. Like I said, I've been more than happy with communicating via e-mail and having everything automated online...especially after I save $100 a month in comissions :)

Chris

[Truth4Honor]

Stenz,

Miss you on the Yahoo CRIO post. Looks like you've been busy! Do you still keep an eye on CRIO? I'm stubborn and still stuck waiting for a rebound. Broke my own rule and did not set a stop. Anyway, can you save me some time and point me to your latest screen results?

Best regards,

[puffmoon]

The email I got said 4 trades in 5 days. So I assume a buy and sell is 2 trades...[/quote]

[stenzrob]

Now that you've free'd up some money now Stenz what are your plans now? I just ran a screen comperable to yours and PRFT comes up 4th on the list I like this stock and especially under $4 I have a buy at 3.85 but think that is wishfull thinking, however it is flirting with $4 which I think is a possible support level from this week's actions.

Rumaging through the stocks that have turned up I must say that this is the only one that trips any triggers off hand.I'm just waiting for a good opportunity or something. I don't mind sitting on a little bit of cash for a few days.

PRFT does look good, mostly. The one thing that's bothering me, and I mentioned it here before, is the guidance. If you check PRFT at MoneyCentral and click on "Key Developments" and compare recent guidance to the past years results, it looks like they're guiding for negative growth for the next year. If someone here will clear up my misunderstanding, if that's what it is, then I'd be looking to buy some. If not, good luck.

[stenzrob]

I took a vacation day last Friday because the school had a day off.
Apparently, I bought some SNCI for $9.50, while I was in the attic wiring up a new ceiling fan.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Yesterday and today, HBIO is moving up on unusually large volume.

[George]

Hi Stenz,
Apparently buying SNCI ?
can u explain please ?

[stenzrob]

Hi Stenz,
Apparently buying SNCI ?
can u explain please ?I placed a limit order where I thought there should be some support, around the 20 day moving average, and it executed.

[stenzrob]

EONC news out at 11:00 today about business win in China.
The long wait here could be over.

[moemaynard]

would you still be buying at 3.90?

[drchrislee]

would you still be buying at 3.90?

Hehe, I don't know if I necessarily would, but in the interest of driving up prices, I say you should buy as much as you can. ;-)

[stenzrob]

would you still be buying at 3.90?Since I think it will go to $6 to $8 in the next three to six months, I'd have to say yes.

[moemaynard]

obkb...I got in at 3.88.

I've been watching this stock for awhile now and didn't pull the trigger at 3.5...my fault. Let's see how it reacts to the big 4.0

[ChrisZXWJ]

would you still be buying at 3.90?Since I think it will go to $6 to $8 in the next three to six months, I'd have to say yes.

personally, I'm excited that I chickened out and sold for a 5% profit. Oh well, ya win some ya lose some...congrats to the rest of you.

[drchrislee]

Since I think it will go to $6 to $8 in the next three to six months, I'd have to say yes.

Stenz...as I mentioned on the yahoo board I don't really have any guidance on EONC...but I'm wondering how you figure a $6 to $8 target. Just wondering what that's based on.

Thanks

[stenzrob]

I'm wondering how you figure a $6 to $8 target.
Method 1: Price/sales is now 2.31 at $4. Price/sales of 5.0 gives target of over $8.
Method 2: EPSxPE - EPS last four Q's were -0.04, +0.01, +0.02, +0.03. Extrapolating EPS growth for the next two quarters to 0.05, 0.07 gives a TTM EPS in six months of 0.17, x PE 50 = $8.50.
Method 3: Current trend - Price was $2 last June, $3 last September, $4 this January, extrapolating $5 in March or April, $6 by June or July.
Method 4: Long term resistance - In May 2000, price dropped on heavy volume from $9 to $6 and bounced to $8 before continuing slide on decreasing volume.
Method 5: Dice

[drchrislee]

Method 1: Price/sales is now 2.31 at $4. Price/sales of 5.0 gives target of over $8.
Method 2: EPSxPE - EPS last four Q's were -0.04, +0.01, +0.02, +0.03. Extrapolating EPS growth for the next two quarters to 0.05, 0.07 gives a TTM EPS in six months of 0.17, x PE 50 = $8.50.
Method 3: Current trend - Price was $2 last June, $3 last September, $4 this January, extrapolating $5 in March or April, $6 by June or July.
Method 4: Long term resistance - In May 2000, price dropped on heavy volume from $9 to $6 and bounced to $8 before continuing slide on decreasing volume.
Method 5: Dice

Thanks - that was very helpful. I had forgotten your price/sales ratio of 5 that you look for. To hear your techniques is very useful - I'm learning from you almost every day. :)

[stenzrob]

Thanks - that was very helpful. I had forgotten your price/sales ratio of 5 that you look for. To hear your techniques is very useful - I'm learning from you almost every day. :)Glad it was helpful. Discussing helps me, too. Don't forget method 5. You'll notice I seldom buy stocks that are over $12.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

Miss you on the Yahoo CRIO post. Looks like you've been busy! Do you still keep an eye on CRIO? I'm stubborn and still stuck waiting for a rebound. Broke my own rule and did not set a stop. Anyway, can you save me some time and point me to your latest screen results?

Best regards,Truth, I haven't really been watching CRIO.
Try this screen, and I heartily recommend messing around with it, and putting any other stocks you like for other reasons into the compare box to see how they stack up to these criteria. To reiterate some points I made earlier -
1. Stocks not on this screen also go up
2. Not all stocks on this screen go up
3. This screen only produces candidates for further DD
I have not made a study of this, but my impression is that the majority of candidates produced by this screen do go up ... a lot. I think ChrisXZJGQW is doing a thesis or something on this.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF 136Z00F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L 70ZF307Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1% 2e5ZF234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice 36&Tickers=25#Big

[IamOrion]

Is this the only screen you use?

[stenzrob]

Is this the only screen you use?No, but all the screens I use are similar - all look for growth of some sort, valuation by some metric, financial stability, and momentum over some period of time.

[IamOrion]

I see that you own some CTRA, I do not own any myself, but was thinking of jumping in here on some weakness, any new thoughts on this one.

[stenzrob]

I see that you own some CTRA, I do not own any myself, but was thinking of jumping in here on some weakness, any new thoughts on this one.No, no new thoughts. Still like it and still holding. This one may take some time, since normal trading is light with sudden high volume bursts. I wouldn't want this to be my only or my biggest position. By the way, my three largest positions are HBIO, QVDX, and WITS.

[stenzrob]

I did just sell my WITS for $11.60 that I bought for $9.10 a couple of weeks ago. +22% in two weeks. I might be leaving some on the table here, but I was just feeling the need to sell something.
Got my WITS back this morning.That was bought at average price of $10.98.
WITS had another good day, now up 16% since I bought it back 9 days ago.
I'm having trouble coming up with a target price, since it's over $12 and I only have two dice.

[ChrisZXWJ]

I think ChrisXZJGQW is doing a thesis or something on this.

my lazy ass hasn't even started, so don't expect anything earth shattering anytime soon :) it's due on the last day of class and that's probably when I'll have it done...

Good call on WITS, I like it too...made me a little less bitter about selling EONC.

[moemaynard]

why do I have the feeling like earnings are going to miss? Why would there be this much selling after such good news from China? Suspicious...

[stenzrob]

why do I have the feeling like earnings are going to miss? Why would there be this much selling after such good news from China? Suspicious...It is healthy to be suspicious, but this selling is on very low volume. I was concerned about the volume of the drop in the first week of February followed by lower volume bounce that stopped at around $3.50, and was very close to pushing the "bailout" button when the China news came out. I will hang in for a while yet.

[stenzrob]

Interesting day today - I picked up some more WITS for under $12, and started a new position in LCCI at $7.20.

That does it for me, I'm probably done buying for now.

[ChrisZXWJ]

so what does the current portfolio look like?

[stenzrob]

Current portfolio, in decreasing order of position size, bold indicates position in IRA, 5 positions in each account with no overlap, (IRA value is 50% greater than the other, so the positions tend to be larger):
WITS, HBIO, QVDX, LCCI, HSKA, SNCI, PDEX, CPTV, EONC, CTRA

I have been tracking the performance of my non-IRA portfolio more closely, because I need better records there anyway for tax purposes. I reset my relative performance on Jan 2. Since then, the non-IRA portfolio is up 8.75% while the nasdaq is up 2.15%, right on my target of 4x the nasdaq, but short of my other target of 31.6%/quarter (200%/yr). I maintain and track to both targets to see if over time, I'm more likely to have consistent returns, or to only consistently outperform the market.

Exactly 1 week ago, I was close to on track for the quarterly return target, up 13.6% in six weeks. It occurs to me that if there were some way to reliably pick stocks that would go up 15% in four to six weeks, I could beat my quarterly return targets. Is anyone aware of such a magic method?

[stocks54]

Stenz,

Do you think WITS will have greater return compared to QVDX?

[lindsayleeds]

Anyone here checked out ADNW? One of my co-workers bought 24,000 shares yesterday. The P/E ratio of 10 for a company with a 10 fold revenue increase and six fold earnings increase is a screaming buy to me.

This is the first bulletin board stock I have ever bought. I don't routinely trade them.

What do you think Stenz?

Background:

First read what my friend Dyno said:
"Automotive Data Networks is a provider of software and real time data services to the worldwide automotive industry.
This stock looks very interesting.
It has been basing for quite awhile as the news from the company gets better and better.
The recent quarter revenues came in at 6.2 million compared to 475,000 thousand and earnings of 6 cents compared to 1 cent.
I think it is only a matter of time (one to four months) and we can get a double on this one.
Thanks to Iceman for bringing this one to my attention.
Dynodino"

ADNW helps auto dealerships sell financing and insurance, by giving them the software and legal expertise necessary to do it. Management seems attentive to shareholder needs, mainly increasing the value of the stock so they can raise more money to grow the company. A forward P/E of 10 for a company growing this fast is ridiculous.

[stenzrob]

Do you think WITS will have greater return compared to QVDX?No, not necessarily. As I said, I have 5 positions in each account, and the IRA positions tend to be larger becaues the IRA simply has more in it.

[stenzrob]

Anyone here checked out ADNW?I know very little about ADNW, but I have heard of them. You might find out a lot about it if you ask your question on the NTST board, several people there have studied it. Why on the NTST board? Because the Investor Relations guy, listed at the bottom of every NTST press release, is also the IR guy for ADNW - also BIV and a few others. He could tell you more, too, just e-mail or call him. I found him to be very responsive and informative. If you contact him, tell him I sent you. He even knows my real name.

regards ... stenz

[Rob]

Anyone here checked out ADNW?

Hi lindsay.

ADNW just might be a winner, so I am not trying to downplay it, but let me raise to you the question that occurred to me as I investigated their products. What is the possibility that their services to dealerships will come under legal fire for facilitating price-fixing?

I don't know how the anti-trust laws work in Jolly Olde England, but I got a huge $$$MR. MARKET$$$-sized burn on a stock I owned on a company here in the states when it was dealt an anti-trust blow by the Federal Trade Comm. The kicker is, I don't even believe they were in violation of the law. It was a bogus charge. But it didn't matter, because the high and mighty feds decided this company was just too profitable, (no, I don't mean MSFT) and that was unfair to their struggling and inefficient competition.

I'd better leave that issue right here, because I can taste the vitriol welling up in my throat.

Anyway, I just was curious if anyone involved with ADNW had considered that question. Also, if you're the type who likes to throw "mad-money" at penny stocks--you know, the "Hail Mary" approach to stock investing--I'll give you one to check out: RCO. It even trades on the AMEX.

I am huge! Send in the dancing virgins.

[lindsayleeds]

In reply to:

"ADNW just might be a winner, so I am not trying to downplay it, but let me raise to you the question that occurred to me as I investigated their products. What is the possibility that their services to dealerships will come under legal fire for facilitating price-fixing?"

They help dealerships evaluate credit, set up loans using a computer, and also help the dealership sell its own car insurance. Those things all have so much competition no one can price fix.

Price fixing is more an issue where you have 90% of a market, or have illegally cornered a market. Say the record industry, who still charge $16 a CD even though they cost 25 cents. Or Microsoft charging $500 for an office suite. Or drug companies charging $300 for the pills I need to keep my stomach acid under control. Now that is price fixing!

RCO, couldn't find any 10Q's or anything else on it. The less information available, the more nervous I get. I diversify. Diversity is the friend of risky investor. Like Stenz, he owns ten different stocks. That way if you are shooting the moon on a couple, it is not as big a deal.

ADNW is not a shoot the moon stock though. It has real earnings and revenue growth. A shoot the moon stock would be one of these drug companies hoping to get FDA approval for a drug.

Lindsay

[stenzrob]

Diversity is the friend of risky investor. Like Stenz, he owns ten different stocks.
This could be the first time I've been held up as an example of moderation and prudence ... in anything.

[moemaynard]

Stenz...
What should we be looking for with EONC earnings? Can you post estimates? I haven't liked the action recently but its just been tracking the overall market. We need a good earnings repot for a major boost.

[ChrisZXWJ]

What's the word on CTRA? Down big on big volume....my smallest position just got a lot smaller :)

[stenzrob]

What's the word on CTRA? Down big on big volume....my smallest position just got a lot smaller :)I have no idea, Chris. Clearly, the market is going through some kind of correction. My portfolio has taken some big hits lately. Easy come, easy go.

[ChrisZXWJ]

yup, I definitely lost about 5% overall in the last two days...oh well :) Good thing I have my gambling addiction to fall back on when my investing addiction has a setback...

[stocks54]

Stenz,

Overall market is down with a heavy hit on technical stocks.. This could be a time to buy some stocks....BUT it's like a falling knief...how do you determine when to get into some position?

Regards,

[mrmarket]

Stenz,

Overall market is down with a heavy hit on technical stocks.. This could be a time to buy some stocks....BUT it's like a falling knief...how do you determine when to get into some position?

Regards,


I'd buy stocks with rising revenues and earnings and are trading within 5% of their new highs ...damn the torpedoes..full speed ahead!

Every day there are HUNDREDS of stocks setting new highs, no matter what happens in the overall market. The stock market is, in reality, a market of individual stocks. How soon we forget.

[moemaynard]

Hate to say I said so but if it looks like a rat, smells like one, then it probably is. Good news all week and the stock is tanking. And they accuse Martha Stewart of Insider Trading? Bullshit. I sold luckily yesterday at 3.60 right before the close and was glad I did. Too bad I lost 10% which sucks but its better than 25%!! Are you still holding this thing Stenz?

As Mr Market says, its all about Earnings Earnings Earnings and this company did have any this quarter. Future looks better but how much better is the question.....

Who's got a real pick for me? :)

[mcole74]

Hey, Stenz,
I was blessed enough to pick up HBIO in Sept '02 on a really down day... up over 200% now.
I see that you are still holding HBIO. So, I assume you feel that it's got room to grow? Just wondering about your thoughts on HBIO and what your reasons are for holding onto it. I am looking to free up some money in the portfolio, but can't find anything I'm ready to sell... I'm trying to decide if HBIO has room for significant growth or if my $$ would be better placed elsewhere....

[stenzrob]

Hate to say I said so but if it looks like a rat, smells like one, then it probably is. Good news all week and the stock is tanking. And they accuse Martha Stewart of Insider Trading? Bullshit. I sold luckily yesterday at 3.60 right before the close and was glad I did. Too bad I lost 10% which sucks but its better than 25%!! Are you still holding this thing Stenz?

As Mr Market says, its all about Earnings Earnings Earnings and this company did have any this quarter. Future looks better but how much better is the question.....

Who's got a real pick for me? :)Yes, I am still holding. IMHO, the future looks great. I first started playing EONC back at $1.60, got out and back in again. I see no reason to bail out at this point.

[stenzrob]

Hey, Stenz,
I was blessed enough to pick up HBIO in Sept '02 on a really down day... up over 200% now.
I see that you are still holding HBIO. So, I assume you feel that it's got room to grow? Just wondering about your thoughts on HBIO and what your reasons are for holding onto it. I am looking to free up some money in the portfolio, but can't find anything I'm ready to sell... I'm trying to decide if HBIO has room for significant growth or if my $$ would be better placed elsewhere....You found it way before I did - nice work. I am still holding it, and think it has room to grow, yes. I have a found only a few that seem more compelling by my criteria, and I own them, too. They are all small caps, and most have above average volatility. Sometimes that's good, and sometimes bad. When I have time, I play with the volatility, and when I don't have the time, I will just ride them. Lately, I haven't had time. I'll be in Europe again almost the whole first half of March and mostly out of touch, so I have to feel pretty confident about my holdings. I might set a few stops to prevent total disaster, but other than that the portfolio will be on auto-pilot.

From the Q3 report - "Since implementing this strategy in March of 1996, our compounded annual growth rate has been approximately 40% in revenues and 24% in pro forma earnings per share. We expect this trend to continue in 2004."

Given the magnitude of your gains, you might consider this - sell half and keep half. Buy something else with the half you sell.

[George]

Hello Stenz,

You say,
......I might set a few stops to prevent total disaster, but other than that the portfolio will be on auto-pilot......

If it is possible, would you please share your stops with us ?

Best wishes,
George

[stenzrob]

Hello Stenz,

You say,
......I might set a few stops to prevent total disaster, but other than that the portfolio will be on auto-pilot......

If it is possible, would you please share your stops with us ?

Best wishes,
GeorgeStop smoking.
Stop working so much.
Stop being rude to others.

[ChrisZXWJ]

I'll be in Europe again almost the whole first half of March and mostly out of touch, so I have to feel pretty confident about my holdings.

noooooo...I'll have to find someone else to blindly follow :)

[stenzrob]

I'll be in Europe again almost the whole first half of March and mostly out of touch, so I have to feel pretty confident about my holdings.

noooooo...I'll have to find someone else to blindly follow :)You're not making "blind" jokes, are you? Please see my avatar - do you know who that is?

[ChrisZXWJ]

spiderman? was he blind? I had to admit it, but spiderman was a bit before my time....so I'm unfamiliar :)

and no, it wasn't really a joke...I've been fairly busy with school lately and haven't had a whole lot of time to do a lot of research, so I've been following a lot of the picks you've posted.

[jiesen]

uh, it's Daredevil man. and yes, he is blind.

[ChrisZXWJ]

uh, it's Daredevil man. and yes, he is blind.

I didn't see that movie, and if there was a comic, that was even farther before my time...then again, I never really had a "time" when it came to comics. My bad :)

[stenzrob]

uh, it's Daredevil man. and yes, he is blind.I had a subscription to the Daredevil comic back in the early 70's. The recent movie didn't even mention it, I think, but the comic logo was always "Daredevil ... the man without fear". Hence, my ssignature line, "trading without fear".
http://www.manwithoutfear.com/

[grebnet]

Stenzrob
Have you ever looked at PRFT , It came up on a screen of mine and i bought on last thursday and again today. Looks good to me ....seems like your style.

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob
Have you ever looked at PRFT , It came up on a screen of mine and i bought on last thursday and again today. Looks good to me ....seems like your style.Yes, I have looked at PRFT briefly. mi6op brought it to our attention, I think, but I don't think he's the only one here interested in it. Everything looks good to me except one thing - looking at the last few years of revs and earnings, and at the guidance for next year, it appears to me that they have guided for a year of revenues lower than the year just finished. If I have misinterpreted something, I wish somebody would fill me in, because I like everything else about it. I put some PRFT in my marketocracy portfolio, because it's not really actual money, and it's way more widely diversified than my real portfolios.

[ChrisZXWJ]

I had a subscription to the Daredevil comic back in the early 70's.

Not to date anyone or anything, but I was born in 1982 :wink:

I got bored the other day, sold API, SPY and QQQ positions, doubled up on CTRA, HSKA and PDEX for gains of 15%, 13% and 22% respectively in the last few trading days. As us youngin's like to say...bling bling. :D

[grebnet]

I see their guidance but I will have to see if I can look at prior guidance as a clue. I do see yhat last quarter they had guided 6-6.3 mill and reported 8.0 mill. If they repeatedly guide conservatively then 1st qtr may beat prior yr 1st qtr of 7.6 mill.

here is cut and paste from guidance

The company expects its Q1 2004 services and software revenue, net of reimbursed expenses, to be in the range of $6.5 million to $6.9 million, comprised of $6.1 million to $6.5 million in services revenue and $0.4 in software revenue. It is the company's practice to include in its revenue guidance only those software sales actually booked as of the guidance date. The forecast range of services revenue would represent services revenue growth of 6% to 13% over the first quarter of 2003

[wormsmall]

Stenz, I just wanted to tell you that I bought the big dipper on the close as I posted on the Yahoo board PDEX. Glad I did!! I now have a very nice position buys at 2.50 2.78 2.80 2.90 3.07.

For those that don't know, to me the big dipper is when a good stock gets cleaned out on heavy volume, many stops are taken out and then the stock holds some support position. This is actually a positive signal.
This can be a good time to buy or a disaster to come.
Trading with out fear is a big help!
Good DD and TA knowledge helps to keep the stomach churn down.

Stenz, Europe again!
If you go to A-Dam How much is that Doggie in the window?
If you are going to Spain keep your butt away from the Bulls, remember I want a new boat.

I also like PRFT and I did not buy it already because of your comments about guiding lower.
Of course I do remember a few years back I think you were once wrong. (LOL)

I do not like the action in the Nas trading higher on lower volume. The last few times it has failed and it served only quick trades or shorts who wanted to get a higher short position.

Buying Sub on the bottom selling pops

Worms

[stenzrob]

WITS heading for a breakout, SNCI already in progress.
Both undervalued and ripe for big gains, IMHO.

HBIO is slowly recovering from recent selloff, which was twice as deep as I anticipated, earnings report due out tonight.

[stenzrob]

LCCI just announced a very large deal with the Saudi's.
Could get interesting, it might even get back to my purchase price if there's enough excitement about it, and no market headwind.

[Mi6op]

Yes I'm still interested in PRFT and actually acquired a position since we talked last as my 3.85 order filled unbeknownced to me a few weeks ago.

I was especially glad to see the significant move fo 10%+ on Friday on much higher than usual volume, also today there was a lot of buying of late, wich I feel may coincide with the IBM show they presented at and that they one top honors there. At least that's what the word on the Street is.

Also there was a news article released today about what was going on at the show and it seems that PRFT is working on marketing some products with/through IBM.

So no bad news out lately at the very least.