Stenzrob's specials

[mrmarket]

A little riskier than $$$MR. MARKET$$$ stocks but they have great fundamentals and are growth stories in the making with red-hot price momentum.

[stenzrob]

Thanks, Ernie. My very own little padded room.

For those who may not know, I use one simple screen to find stocks of small and micro-cap companies having solid fundamentals and high revenue growth that have relatively low price/sales ratio. Profitability not required, but progress toward profitability is required. P/E ratios are meaningless, I use price/sales ratio to judge valuation.

The screen only turns up candidates - I buy and sell from this list after doing additional research and chart study. I do not have a time limit or a sell target when I buy - I will cut losses if something changes, either with the company or the stock losing momentum. If the company continues to perform, and the stock keeps going up, I'll ride it for as long as I can.

As of today (9/26/03), the screen turns up 30 candidates.
The top 25 are:
GIGM, ESLR, SFCC, SYMM, GSIC, EWEB, ITXC, LENS, CRDN, FARO, CLZR, SWIR, GMAI, PRCP, QVDX, MSI, SNCI, EONC, CRIO, ECHO, MERX, TRCI, SMSC, CARN, ADEX

GIGM has been at the top of the list for a while now, and I bought it at $1.60 on August 5, 2003. Thom Calandra of cbs marketwatch was nice enough to feature it in his newsletter recently, and it is now jumping on heavy volume. I'm up about 75% on it in 6 weeks, but I believe it is not done yet, so I'm still in it. Calandra compared it to CHINA and SOHU.

HBIO was on the screen and I bought it for $6 about two weeks ago. It's up 25% since then, but it fell off the list when the price/sales ratio got above 3.0.

CRIO is another favorite of mine. Unlike some others, I trade it, trying to time the cycles as best I can. First bought it at $1.60 and rode for awhile, I have sold at $3.15, rebought at $3, sold again at $3.15, and just rebought it again today for $2.79.

I'm also currently long in QVDX, TRCI, and MTEX.


Since April 8, when I put some extra cash to work and starting using this method, my portfolio is up 146%, while the nasdaq is up 29.5%. That's an average of just under 4% a week.

[Anonymous]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

[Anonymous]

You might find it very hard to mimic stenzrob's picks, as he buys and sells the stocks quite often and it could be hard for you to replicate (keep up with the trades)---just a cautious note as the large number of ins and outs are very different from Ernie's.

[sbarclay8308]

Stenzrob.. The screening that you do, is it an automated process?

I am writing my MM Simulator in Micr$soft.Net for the WWW and
will be pulling data in to it .. Hoping to allow someone to come to
the site and tweak the parameters and get thier own picks..

Would you be interested in parting with your process so I could
do the same with it? By putting all the stock data into a local
database I feel I could make a few tools that everyone could
benefit from. I have the hardware/Disk storage and more CPU
capacity than NASA (pre 1987 of course)...

And yes for anyone reading this thread.. I am a geek.. :wink:

[stenzrob]

for sbarclay8308
- the screen is automated, but the buying and selling is not. I use msn moneycentral to screen for this:

Revenue Growth:
Rev Growth Qtr vs Qtr > 25%
Rev Growth Yr vs Yr = High As Possible

Momentum:
3 month Relative Strength > 85
Avg Daily Vol Last Month > 50,000
Avg Daily Vol Last Qtr > Avg Daily Vol Last Year

Valuation:
Price/Sales Ratio < 3.0

Financial Strength:
Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.3
Current Ratio > 1.3

Last Price > $1.5
Market Cap < $500M

Profitability is not a requirement, but I look at it.
Chart over the last 6 months should show strong advances on high volume and pullbacks on low volume, and it's on the pullbacks where I try to buy.

Today I bought more MTEX at $5.71 where a recent gap has filled.
It actually had fallen off my screen because the 3 month RSI is low, but everything else matches. 6 month and 1 year performance is very good.

[stenzrob]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

Well, bruce, let's look at last week, when the market was down.

My marketocracy fund that is not very actively managed, just a big basket of stocks from my screen, was down a lot more than the market.
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

Now, I know you have no reason to believe me, and I really don't care, but as you say, I trade a lot. That same week, my personal portfolio was essentially unchanged, because I bailed out of a few positions.

[mrmarket]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

Well, bruce, let's look at last week, when the market was down.

My marketocracy fund that is not very actively managed, just a big basket of stocks from my screen, was down a lot more than the market.
http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

Now, I know you have no reason to believe me, and I really don't care, but as you say, I trade a lot. That same week, my personal portfolio was essentially unchanged, because I bailed out of a few positions.

Stenzrob,

Your picks are great.

As some of you may remember, I had my issues with your risky ideas, and it is true that very few of your picks will ever make my screens. But I think this is a function of having different investment objectives rather than different ideas of what makes a stock a good pick. Furthermore, I am seasoned enough to know that there is more than one way to make money in the market. While your style is a little too risky for my tastes, you've certainly won over some fans in the Mr. Market legion.

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob,

Your picks are great.

As some of you may remember, I had my issues with your risky ideas, and it is true that very few of your picks will ever make my screens. But I think this is a function of having different investment objectives rather than different ideas of what makes a stock a good pick. Furthermore, I am seasoned enough to know that there is more than one way to make money in the market. While your style is a little too risky for my tastes, you've certainly won over some fans in the Mr. Market legion.

Thanks, Ernie. Different strokes for different folks, man.

There is occasionally some overlap between our picks - FARO made your screen, but not the final five. SFCC was a pick of yours that was on my list, too. What is more likely, I believe and hope, and I guess we'll find out in the years to come, is that my picks show up on your >100% up for the year screen about 1 year after they show up on mine.

[the_daqman]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

why would someone use the same strategy thru changing market environments :?:

[investing_fool]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

[Anonymous]

Stenzrob-I do believe what you say, and in fact do respect your picks and your passion for stocks.

[Anonymous]

It was just a subject to raise (how the picks perform in different environments---it is like when magazines rate funds and how they perform in different type of markets (bull/bear). As to your question on why stick with the same strategy, that is a great subject to discuss---Warren Buffett for instance does not change styles and I would say in general some investors do and some don't---just matters what you are comfortable with IMHO. :o

[stenzrob]

With such high octane picks, it might be interesting to determine how stenzrob's picks do in different market environments.

why would someone use the same strategy thru changing market environments :?:

dagman,
Since the screen looks for particular characteristics of both the company and the stock, the same strategy could indeed work through changing market environments. What would change is the industries in which those stocks are found.
It will be intersting to see how it works out as conditions change, as I have only been using this particular strategy since April.

$$$Mr Market$$$ was successful in finding momentum stocks through the downturn.

[mimo_100]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

I agree. I believe the next month or so could be pretty treacherous.
The good news is that stocks that remain strong, during this period, will be the ones to buy. The bad news, how does one identify them? :) :?:

Tim

[mrmarket]

Does anybody else get the feeling this market is going to roll over and die? (for a couple weeks or a month at least)

Decent rebound today for the techs, but heaviest days lately have been on the downside :?

I agree. I believe the next month or so could be pretty treacherous.
The good news is that stocks that remain strong, during this period, will be the ones to buy. The bad news, how does one identify them? :) :?:

Tim


earnings earnings earnings

[Anonymous]

That is why I am 100% cash---I think this is treacherous indeed. Food for thought---if Ernie is so hot on earnings, earnings, earnings (actually I am too) why does he stubbornly keep stocks that disappoint on earnings after he picks a stock? Could it be for ego reasons (the "streak")? Hmmm... I personally prefer not to be so rigid on stock management as Ernesto, buying on selling based on fundamentals, which are not rigid, but change as time goes by IMHO.

Stenzrob-I personally would suggest starting your own website. I think you could get a good following. I would bet that over the last quarter for instance that just ended your portfolio has trounced Mr. Market's---in fact, and you do not have to say, I would bet you have very few if any of Mr. Market's picks in your portfolio, especially not ones like NARA and WSB. Think about it---I may disagree with some of your posts at times, but you have a flair for this kind of thing. :D

[stenzrob]

First, I respectfully disagree with Ernie about "earnings, earnings, earnings". A company can boost earnings while revenues stagnate by cutting costs, R&D costs for tech companies for example, but this does not bode well for the longer term. Revenue growth is key, IMO.

Second, about how to identify stocks that can remain strong in the face of a treacherous market, in addition to the revenue growth, one must pay attention to price & volume. Stocks that can do well in a down market will be identified by the fact that people (and institutions) are buying it. Duh. Higher volume on up days than on down days, advances past resistance levels on heavy volume followed by consolidation at that level on low volume while moving averages catch up. Trendlines remaining intact. These are the true "momentum" stocks.

Third, about the next month or so being treacherous. Maybe yes, maybe no. The nasdaq is flirting with it's 50 day average, and it could go either way. On the one hand, stocks have done well for the last quarter, so people getting their mutual fund statements might be tempted to put more money in, and the funds are required to maintain positions so they will be buying. On the other hand, currency ratios may cause foreign investors to pull out of the US market causing a drop in the US markets. Margin levels are currently at levels even higher than in early 2000, so the beginning of a drop could trigger an avalanche that would take virtually everything with it. I will stay nearly fully invested but watch very carefully for signs of impending doom.

Finally, about starting my own website. I don't think so ... such things only attract too many kooks and critics, obviously.

[thebign1]

Hi Stenzrob, I think your picks are great and I was wondering if you are still using Accel Rev + Price screen?

I have an online account with Sharebuilder and even though you can trade 4000 different stocks with them their are a lot of good ones that I can't buy. I've been looking into First Trade to open a second account.
Do you have any thoughts on this?

Thanks, Norm :D

[stenzrob]

Hi Stenzrob, I think your picks are great and I was wondering if you are still using Accel Rev + Price screen?

I have an online account with Sharebuilder and even though you can trade 4000 different stocks with them their are a lot of good ones that I can't buy. I've been looking into First Trade to open a second account.
Do you have any thoughts on this?

Thanks, Norm :D

Thanks, Norm. I have accounts at Schwab for an IRA and at ETrade. I have no opinion on those other brokers.

I am indeed still using Accel Rev + Price screen. I also look at some others, but that one seems to work quite well, at least when the overall market is doing well.

By the way, a friend who subscribes to it told me that GIGM was just highlighted by the Investment House newsletter, they see a cup & handle formation with a breakout point at 2.98. This on top of a recent recommendation by Thom Calandra's newsletter. Quite often, one or more of my picks will be highlighted by the IH newsletter a few weeks after I pick them and I'm already up 25% or more. (I'm currently up over 50% on GIGM) Some of my picks also show up some time later in $$$MM$$$'s dumps, like FARO has. I believe this is because my screen tend to pick up on accumulation even before the really juicy momentum gets going, probably because of my screens terms for increasing volume.

regards ... stenz

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, I also have a Schwab account for my Roth IRA but I don't do a lot of trading with it. I try to keep my long positions there. (FRED, NRI, NFB, etc....) But I like GIGM also, (#1 on your list) I just can't buy it with
Sharebuilder. Another thought would be to dump some of my EOP in my Schwab main account & grab a few thousand shares.

Regard, Norm 8)

[stenzrob]

Most of my holdings will be greatly affected by what the nasdaq does. They typically have betas much greater than 1.0. If the next few months are "treacherous", my portfolio could suffer a bit - but then, I have stops for that, not actually on the books at the broker, but in my tracking spreadsheet. (I put the stop prices in one cell, then use conditional formatting to have the current price turn color if it goes below the stop price.) From there, it's not automatic (but is very likely) that I would sell - it depends on volume.

The lower stops are based on either moving averages or drawing lines on a chart of the uptrends that give these stocks their high relative strength numbers. Unlike $$$MM$$$, who is indeed HUGE, I will sell the stock if it no longer fits the criteria - my criteria looks for revenue growth, I will sell if the growth stops or slows significantly; my criteria looks for momentum or accumulation, I will sell if the momentum turns.

As I posted earlier, the nasdaq could still go either way, and it is a losers game to try to predict it, IMO. If it gets above ~1850 with some volume and follow through, I would expect most of my stocks to take off like scalded apes, with some perhaps surging 50 to 100% in a matter of weeks. I would certainly not want to be 100% cash if that happens. On the other hand, if the nasdaq turns and heads back below it's 50 day average, again with some volume, my kind of stocks (barring any significant news) will head south in a hurry and those stops will cause me to sell; some newer positions at a loss, others at less profit than I'm sitting on now.

I have enjoyed 150% gain in my portfolio value in the last six months, not by sticking with losers that have lost their momentum and waiting a year and a half to get a 15% return out of it, or by sitting on cash, but by usually riding the winners however far they want to run, and usually cutting losses before they get large. Nobody can predict which way the market is going to go on any given day or week, and most stocks are affected by the overall market mood. Valuations and earnings can give you a warm, fuzzy feeling about a stock, but stock prices are not driven by these things alone, and nobody can predict how the market will react to anything. I have seen companies post great results, only to get sold off. I have seen stocks take off on no news and have no reaction to great or bad news. I like a warm, fuzzy feeling; that's why my screen produces candidates with strong revenue growth and reasonable valuation using one metric. But ultimately, it is buying in volume that drives a price up, and we, the retail outsiders, will never know exactly what may be behind it. We can only recognize and react to it.

I'm currently long CRIO, GIGM, HBIO, QVDX, and MTEX in my trading account and NTST, TRCI and HBIO in my IRA. I believe that any one of these could surge 50 to 100% in just a few weeks, or increase at about 5 to 10% a week for several months. HBIO is looking particularly ripe about now.

[stenzrob]

Posted on 10/1/03 -
That is why I am 100% cash--- :D

Since 10/1,
MTEX up 10% from $5.90 to $6.50
CRIO up 3% from $2.95 to $3.05
HBIO up 8% from $7.50 to $8.10

QVDX bouncing between $3.75 and $4.00
GIGM re-basing at $2.50

For the last six months, my portfolio has averaged about 4% return per week. Last week was no different. 100% cash? I don't think so.

!!!Stenz_ALERT!!!
- Watch HBIO for a possible breakout. The gap up day a few weeks ago closed at $8.12. A close above $8.12 on some decent volume in the next few days would be very bullish.

[stenzrob]

... NTST, TRCI and HBIO in my IRA...

TRCI >15% volume breakout today! Yeeha.
NTST +6.5% today, continuing after bounce off moving average
HBIO +5.1% today, moving toward breakout

[minni17]

Yo man you are HUUUUUUUUGE.

Bought some trci at 7.18 on Sept 3rd. Just saw it cross at 9.15 on triple average volume. That's 28% in 4 weeks and chart still looks awesome!

What kind of cheese goes with filet mignon?

Keep em coming

Minni

[stenzrob]

Yo man you are HUUUUUUUUGE.

Bought some trci at 7.18 on Sept 3rd. Just saw it cross at 9.15 on triple average volume. That's 28% in 4 weeks and chart still looks awesome!

What kind of cheese goes with filet mignon?

Keep em coming

Minni
Glad you liked it, minni.
I guess I've been living in the Philly area for too long now, I slice the filet mignon into thin slices, grill it with Velveeta and onions, slap it on a long roll and smother with ketchup.
I was born in North Tonawanda, but got over the roast beef on a Kaiser habit eventually.
28% in 4 weeks - what's that on an annualized basis, I wonder?

[ChrisZXWJ]

hey stenzrob...are you still holding on to TRCI after today's gain? I'm trying to talk myself into selling, but I can't quite do it. I'm up over 30% in the last few weeks myself. What do you think?

By the way, I'm living in North Tonawanda right now...I'm a grad student at UB.

Chris

[minni17]

WNY chapter...STENZROB fan club :D :D :D :D

I Live in Kenmore ( just south of North Tonawanda), graduated UB a long time ago, and still eat beef on weck.

Good to hear from ya guys in the area

Minni

[stenzrob]

hey stenzrob...are you still holding on to TRCI after today's gain? I'm trying to talk myself into selling, but I can't quite do it. I'm up over 30% in the last few weeks myself. What do you think?

By the way, I'm living in North Tonawanda right now...I'm a grad student at UB.

Chris
As I said in an earlier post, Chris, I'll ride as far as it wants to go, until something changes. I don't see why a "momentum" trader would sell when a stock breaks out on heavy volume. If I didn't already own it and had just found it because of the breakout, I might wait for a pullback to buy. But since I already have it, I'll just keep it until something changes - bad news or uptrend violated. Move up strongly, settle a bit on lower volume, repeat. I've seen stocks do this for months and months.

About NT - I lived on Jackson Ave near Payne Ave until age 5, then moved to the other end, on Christiana between Payne Ave and Christiana Park until age 11, then was dragged off to the Albany area. I never drove in NT, so I don't know my way around there very well. I really only knew my way from my house to the Elementary School and the comic book shop.

Good luck with your grad studies ... now stop hanging around here and do your homework, young man!

[ChrisZXWJ]

well, conveniently, I'm a MBA student with a concentration in finance...so I guess this could count as homework. I'm working with a few professors right now to try to "integrate" this whole process into an Excel spreadsheet, sort of like the one that was posted in the Yahoo group.

I'm not 100% confident in this whole momentum trading thing just yet. I do like how your model incorporates some fundamental valuation, which makes me more comfortable following a momentum trading strategy. So, I'm having a harder time determining when to sell using this method rather than just selling when I feel a stock is fully valued.

I'm not too familiar driving around the area yet myself. I just moved here at the start of the year after graduating from SUNY Albany. Small world, huh?

[tx_damnyankee0]

Sorry guys...no stock gems to talk about here are the moment.....just wishing for a beef on weck. I lived in Hamburg.....North Boston area. My best friend owns a restaurant in West Seneca.......I miss the area.

[carribean_mike]

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob, I bailed a week ago. How would you play it now - if you didn't have a position. On the bright side I did make a few bucks before I dumped it.

thanks
Mike, I don't remember telling you to sell. :cry:
Each stock has a characteristic trading pattern that it will usually follow in the absence of anything to disturb it. Look at how it's traded in the past to get a feel for how it might trade going forward. In the case of TRCI, it has several times now advanced like today to a new high on higher than average volume, followed through a little bit, then settled back on lower volume. Settled back to where? About to the previous high before the advance, somewhere between 20 day and 50 day moving average. So, one way to play it would be to assume it will do this again, and you might be able to pick it up for around $8 or so. Study a six month chart with some moving averages on it. Here's one -
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=trci,uu[l,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60]

But then, each time it does this "advance on high volume, retreat on low volume" routine, more shares get into the hands of either accumulating institutions or people like us who are looking for this kind of pattern, and/or the fundamentals that I also screen for, and don't part with their shares on every little 10% jump up, because we're looking for much bigger gains. This is what's behind my other strategy that I've posted about before, maybe it was on the old yahoo group. When I find a stock like this, it may be at that point in it's life where it will stop pulling back and just run, or [i]not. There's no good way to tell. So, I might buy half of what I'd really like to have of it. If it takes off arunnin', I'm in. If it pulls back on lighter volume as before, I buy the other half of what I wanted at wherever the support seems to be. If it pulls back on higher volume, though, or goes below where I think the bottom of the intermediate term uptrend is, I will sell it at a loss.

Good luck, however you decide to play it.

[stenzrob]

You might find it very hard to mimic stenzrob's picks, as he buys and sells the stocks quite often and it could be hard for you to replicate (keep up with the trades)---just a cautious note as the large number of ins and outs are very different from Ernie's.

I don't know where this typically inaccurate and distorted claim comes from, but it could be said that I am sometimes more active than the HUGE and sometimes HUGELY PATIENT $$$MR_MARKET$$$. I would think that it would be obvious to anyone but the mathematically challenged that if I have positions that are up 30%, 50% and more, that this would mean I am trading less often, not more.

TRUE: On 9/24 I sold CRIO at $3.13 before my profitable position went to the red, only to buy it back two days later for $2.79. And that was after I had sold a CRIO position that was up over 90% at $3.15, only to buy it back at $3. While it is true that it may have been difficult to follow all those trades to replicate my total performance, anyone who had bought CRIO when I recommended it would still be up over 50%. On 9/29, I added to my positions in MTEX and QVDX on dips. Several months ago, I owned GORX. Their report was disappointing and I sold at a loss, as both the revenue growth and the price momentum were now gone, without waiting another 18 months for it to recover. If this makes me a hyperactive trader, then so be it. (Six weeks later, GORX is still flatlined at the price where I sold it.)

FALSE: On the other hand; I bought NTST for just under $5 three and a half months ago. If Ernie had bought when I did, at $4.90 on June 19, he might have been out at >15% within four weeks. In fact, since this is up over 100% since I bought it, Ernie could have been in & out about five times with 15% gains. I bought GIGM for $1.60 eight weeks ago and have been holding it ever since. I would buy more here if I weren't already fully invested. Maybe somebody still in 100% cash could give investing a try for a change of pace.

In the last few years, an increasing amount of research has shown that PSYCHOLOGY and FINANCE go hand-in-hand in creating both unhealthy psyche and bad investment decisions.

Fear is the mindkiller.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenzrob...have there been any updates/changes to your portfolio since Monday? I've held everything so far...I'm trying not to get too trigger happy.

Chris
No changes since Monday, in fact no changes since 9/29.

[stenzrob]

Revenue or earnings, which is more important?
According to Jim Jubak, it may depend on where in a business cycle you are.
Brief article at http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P62865.asp
"After watching earnings climb steadily in the year's first two quarters as companies cut costs, Wall Street now wants to see signs that revenues are finally growing. The consensus among the pros is that the cost-cutting cycle is drawing to an end at most companies. Without strong revenue growth, businesses will be hard-pressed to produce the earnings gains that stocks need to keep rallying. Rising revenues flowing through these newly lean-and-mean cost structures is the only way that most companies can generate earnings growth that matches or exceeds current expectations of 20% growth for the third quarter."

[Garden Rose]

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR :D

[stenzrob]

I believe it was you that posted a stock screen @MSN while we were at the Yahoo board. Thank goodness I kept it in my favorites, I must say, that screen certainly picks up some good stocks. Will you be able to post your screen on this board, I think the members would really appreciate it. I know I'm makin money NOW. Thanks, GR :D
My laptop got wiped out by a security patch, and I lost all my cookies. Here's a screen that's probably slightly different than that earlier one, but the concept remains the same - solid financial condition, high revenue growth, plus momentum as indicated by high relative strength with increasing volume.
screen link (http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/finder/customstocks.asp?Query=SV1QF234Z05L2000000000ZF116 Z04F118ZF115Z04L50000ZF307Z04L90ZF150Z04L20ZF151Z0 4L5ZF3Z04L1%2e3ZF137Z05L0%2e3ZF134Z04L1%2e3ZF138Z0 5L3Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice&Tickers=25)
*Stenzrob, I edited the link in your post, because it made the posts too wide for my screen. Karel

[stenzrob]

Bought LENS today for $11.56.

Sales are up 100% yr/yr and EPS up 80%. (stenz buying stock in a profitable company? wassup with that?)

Raised guidance in August - the stock jumped on heavy volume, pulled back to the 50 day and bounced. IMO, it is preparing to breakout again.

Recently profiled by Oberweis.

As always, do your own DD.

[mltlawn]

Closed today at $6.17. I'm up 98.3%. And still holding :D

[stenzrob]

GIGM was up over 17% today on very heavy volume, then continued to run after hours. Nobody knows why.

My GIGM position is up over 70% in two months, I have not bought anymore or sold any in all that time.

Three months ago, GIGM more than doubled in a week, then gave most of it back before beginning a more controlled climb. That's where I bought it, after the fallback. This is definitely one that falls into the "risky" category for some. It could double in a week, or suddenly drop 30%. I'm betting on the double, and even then the fun could be just beginning. Half of their business is very similar to NTES, SINA, SOHU, etc. Look at what they've done. The other half is record stores ("offline media" they call it), so it doesn't have the rich valuation of those others. They have no debt. What if they sold the slow growing record business and used the cash proceeds to expand their asian broadband services business? NTES went from 65 cents to 68 dollars in 18 months. Over 10,000% (though slightly less on an annualized basis). One or two stocks do that each year - those are the ones my screen is designed to look for: high revenue growth, low debt, low price/sales and early signs of momentum.

Good luck to all.

[stenzrob]

For anyone who might be quietly reading my monologue, but not posting ... I did not like the market action today. After the gap-up open, there was profit-taking all day on significant volume. So, I sold CRIO (again) for about a 6% profit from the last buy, and flipped LENS for a little under 4% gain since yesterday. I still like both of these stocks for the long term, and just hope to have the chance to buy them back again for less than I sold.

Holding MTEX, GIGM, QVDX, HBIO, NTST, and TRCI.

I've been tracking my total portfolio performance since April 8, and it's now up 164%, compared to 40.1% for the nasdaq, factor of 4.1x. I just fiddled around to get a more recent comparison, so I looked at it from 9/19, about a month ago when the nasdaq hit a short term peak - to now. Nasdaq up 1.73% peak to peak, stenz up 7.23% over the same period, or 4.175x. Then I looked at my minimally managed marketocracy fund of a big basket of stocks from my screen, and it has a beta of 4.09. The conclusion here could be that the screen does a good job of finding stocks with great potential, and my trading activity in my real account is adding very little to the total performance. I may also not be doing a very good job of selecting the very best picks from the screen.

Still workin' on it. I just started reading O'Neils book, maybe I'll learn something there. So far, he seems pretty obsessed with "earnings, earnings, earnings", but does say it has to be accompanied by revenue growth.

Regards ... stenz

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.
Yeah, Mike. I tweaked it a bit.
Try this, comments welcome -
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20Rev%2bPrice&Ticker s=25

As for a sell strategy, my goal is to sell if either the momentum or the revenue growth falters. Shouldn't make any difference if that's at -15%, +15%, or +150%. I'm looking forward to reading what O'Neil says about it, but I think it's way out in Chapter 12.

[mrmarket]

Stenz, I was a little surprized when you purchased LENS. I ran your screen using the link in an earlier post and LENS wasn't selected. Have you tweaked your parameters? I am still looking for a simple sell strategy. Mr. Market's 15% rule seems to leave too much on the table.

I think some of you guys need to be reminded that selling at 15% is not leaving anything on the table. By reinvesting, you compound your profits. After I sell at 15%, I buy a new stock which frequently goes up faster than the old one I just sold.

So what is being left on the table??? Don't fall in love with a stock. It doesn't know you own it.

[tx_damnyankee0]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.

[stenzrob]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.
yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

[mrmarket]

Ernie I agree with you. I have begun selling at 16% and then I put an alert on them just in case they drop for me to snatch up for another fun run. The problem I have is putting a stop of 10% under my buy price. I am new to this game but I am learning fast.
yankee, $$$MR_Market$$$ does not put a stop of 10% under the buy price. He will hold until the 15% profit is realized.

No disrespect intended, Ernie, but it appears you only fall in love with a stock if it treats you badly, and get rid of it only if it treats you well. (I've known some women that were that way, too.)

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.
Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

[mrmarket]

Stenz...over the years, the ones I hold DO come back. Well over 80% of them do within a year.

The point I don't want obscured though is the fact that selling after a 15% gain is not selling too soon when you are capable of easily finding another winner moving up at a faster rate.
Your HUGE picks are certainly solid enough to have confidence that they will come back. Theoretically, what you say is irrefutable, and I do the same thing in a way. Have you or Karel ever looked to see if your new picks do indeed move up at a faster rate than the ones just sold? Just curious. Again, your record is indisputably HUGE, and I sincerely mean no disrespect.

We have a basic difference in goals which leads to a difference in method. O'Neil of IBD and Kennedy of the Coolcat Report have both studied the early characteristics of stocks that have made the most amazing gains, and will accept the risk of batting less than 1.000 to have a shot at being in the next big winners. This is my goal, and I can't have gains of 100% or more if I sell after 15%. O'Neil relies a lot on earnings and consistency, while Kennedy is more of a pure momentumist. Kennedy primarily looks at price & volume, I added revenue growth and valuation to that. O'Neil emphasizes EPS, but Kennedy has found the greatest gains in emerging small caps that may be just moving into profitability. Combining those two approaches, I came up with the infamous stenzrob screen.

Also, O'Neil recommends buying on breakouts (at pivot points) and Kennedy buys on pullbacks. My pitiful attempts at buy/sell timing are sometimes like one, sometimes the other, because I lack discipline. I'm considering consulting an investment psychologist. Do you know any?

Kevin Kennedy (Coolcat895) and I go back almost 10 years to the AOL Poolhall stock discussion board. There are probably some lurkers out there now who are alumni of that fun board. Coolcat and I have had a number of interesting discussions online and we still keep in touch. I'm a big fan of his as he is a big fan of mine.

I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).

[Karel]

... I never try to time the market or time an entry point. When I see something I like, I grab it because I KNOW it's going to go up.

Karel may be interested in doing the math on that one. I tend not to look in the mirror (at least until football season is over).Yeah, right! This is a very complicated question, and you would also need to define how you are going to time your entry. <shudder>And then the backtesting.</shudder> Generally, MrMarket uses a very simple and laid back strategy. Stock picking is almost mechanical, and the rest is just: buy, set your target, and smile at the development of your portfolio. Occasionally you check what is causing the laggards to lag, and, when necessary, you clean them out.

The very simplicity and the low elbow grease requirements strongly suggest that this method could give better results when you work it harder. The most obvious way is to time your entries, but how? It is nice to note that when MrMarket buys an oversold stock it has a fair chance of becoming a real screamer, but waiting for a MrMarket stock to become oversold might very well get you in at a higher point (when the retracement wasn't quite due and not deep enough to get below his entry). Perhaps stenzrob could look at the price he buys his stocks and the price they had when he put them on his watch list. The case might be better there, because of the crazy volatility of quite a few of his stocks, but checking up is always a good thing.

And working MrMarket's method harder will always include a trade-off. Even if you set your aim so low as a 1% drop under MrMarket's entry, this will make you lose some of the real screamers. More ambitious targets will weed out more stocks. Your profit per stock might be greater, but total profit might drop.

I still have not seen a convincing argument for any change in MrMarket's strategy. Only, it is so very likely that it is possible to change it profitably. :)

Regards,

Karel

[mohitm73]

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

[stenzrob]

Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo
You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

[the_daqman]

stenzrob Posted: Fri Oct 17, 2003 6:29 am Post subject: Re: Stenz

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

mohitm73 wrote:
Looked at your link yesterday and must say thats a great job of picking out growth and momentum together. I have a question on the RS part of your selection (and I may be wrong cause I'm new to investing, correct me if thats the case). You select 6 month RS higher than 3 month RS... shouldn't it be the other way round to indicate increasing RS.

Would appreciate clarifying

Thanks,
Mo

You're absolutely right that 3 mo > 6 mo indicates increasing RS. For the screen to produce candidates, these are just minimum requirements, and you can manually pick the ones you like better. The same concept applies to revenue - I prefer the qtr/qtr revenue growth to be higher than yr/yr, just as O'Neil prefers qtr/qtr EPS higher than yr/yr EPS growth. Also, a pure momentum screen (like the one built into moneycentral) looks for last month avg volume higher than last qtr, but I just set a minimum threshold and look to see if it's still increasing. I also only display ROE and don't use it as a criteria, but I look at it.

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:

[stenzrob]

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:
I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

[RCARTER528]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.

[stenzrob]

Something I've recently been trying, with some success, is putting all of MR Market's final 5 in a watch list. I assume that all 5 are quality picks (I do weed out the very low volume stocks), and wait for one of them to fall back. If I get a drop of 10% or more, I buy it. I did quite well with FINL with that method, and am currently in appx. We'll see how it works.
Everyone's goal is "beating the market".
Even better, and far more difficult, is "beating $$$MR_MARKET$$".
Good luck.

Hyperactive trading?
By selling CRIO and LENS positions for ~5% gains yesterday due to signs of weakness in the general market, my portfolio (which usually has as beta of about 4.0) was down 1.44% on a day when the nasdaq was down 1.94%. If I had held those positions, my portfolio would have been down 2.67%.

I also sold half of my NTST position for $11.97 today, for a 137% gain since buying it on a breakout in June. This stock was not on my screen when I bought it, it was just a sentimental favorite.

[the_daqman]

stenz
i think what mohitm73 was referring to is:

3 month rs > 70
6 month rs > 85

which is what i get when i click that last link you posted the other day.

ns2 :?: :idea:
I knew what was referred to. Look at it this way: since I like to buy strong stocks on low volume pullbacks or near the end of new bases, the 3 month RS might be lower than the 6 month RS. Referring to Kennedy (coolcat) again, he has said that stocks in the early stage of great gains will break out on large volume, then pullback by 20% or more. My screen only produces candidates, and I try to reach a balance in it between being overly restrictive and producing too long a list. The final selection of which of those I will buy, and when, is done by looking at the price&volume chart. I also look at technical indicators like MACD, stochastics, bollinger bands, etc., but mostly it's price & volume.

Look at GIGM, for example. For some time after the surge and retreat in July, the 3 month RS was pretty weak, while the 6 month was still strong. Looking at price&volume told me this was likely to advance some more. I'm sitting on a 75% gain, and the 3 month RS is now looking good again.

Hope that helps.
Only the screen is automatic, the rest of the stenzrob method is not, and it's not entirely clear even to me how the rest of it works.

stenz

understood. i only posted bc i thought that the two of you might have been thinking of different screen versions or something.

ns2 :oops:

[tokyojoeskid]

stenz what you think about CYD, i ran it through my screener came up tops along with gigm. Lookslike it has a huge potential for growth in china as china builds infrastructure. They build diesel engines. trading at a 52 week high big qtrly rev growth, and as china prepares for the olympics in 08(more transportation) i can see no downfall in forward looking growth opportunities. more info here. . .
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031014/newamer_1.html

[stenzrob]

stenz what you think about CYD, i ran it through my screener came up tops along with gigm. Lookslike it has a huge potential for growth in china as china builds infrastructure. They build diesel engines. trading at a 52 week high big qtrly rev growth, and as china prepares for the olympics in 08(more transportation) i can see no downfall in forward looking growth opportunities. more info here. . .
http://biz.yahoo.com/ibd/031014/newamer_1.html
CYD looks very good, IMO. I have no good excuse why I haven't already bought some.

[stenzrob]

You like earnings?
Check NTST's report today.
EPS up 667% over prior year quarter.
Margins up, backlog at record levels.

I sold half of my NTST position last week, will be looking for a good opportunity to get it back.

[vgbansal]

StenzRob,
what about CRIO?????any comments..................????
Earnings due on Oct'28....

[stenzrob]

Dude,
what about CRIO?????any comments..................????
Earnings dude on Oct'28....
You may not have noticed that I sold CRIO last week because I was getting nervous about the market in general, and CRIO wasn't getting any traction above $3. I posted it somewhere around here. I know I posted on the Yahoo CRIO board.

CRIO does look a little weak right now, but the volume is still much lower than it has been on many strong up days over the past six months.

Maybe the market isn't sure what to expect from earnings. I don't know what's driving it, we retail guys never do know what's going on until it's too late.

It dipped a month ago a lot like it is now ... do you feel lucky?

One final note - if a sudden 10% bump in the road really upsets you instead of getting you excited, you might reconsider following my picks. Having sold my CRIO a few days before a 10% drop, I'm having to hold myself back to wait for a sign of strength before jumping back in. I was down about 20% in my original position in MTEX when I more than doubled my position in it on a dip like this. The total position is now approaching breakeven.

Good luck.

[vgbansal]

Thanks..
I did bought MTEX at 7.09 and doubled it when at 6.00

[minni17]

Hey Stenz,

SFCC ( a MM pick from July) gets in on your screen.
What do ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz,

SFCC ( a MM pick from July) gets in on your screen.
What do ya think?

Minni
Minni,
Thanks for asking.
I like SFCC, and said so when it was a MM pick.
It's another of those on my screen that I like that I just don't have enough slots to buy them all.
Too many great stocks!

Of the ones I'm holding now (MTEX, NTST, HBIO, QVDX, GIGM, TRCI), I like QVDX's chances to explode after earnings report if they reach a certain threshold. I have posted about this on the Yahoo QVDX board, check it out. I'm currently down about 11% on my QVDX holdings, so this is your chance to "beat the stenz".

regards ... stenz

[thebign1]

Hello Stenz, Do you have any "guesstimate's" if they will meet or beat their earnings on Wednesday?

I'm got in at $4.00 and I have a sell order for $4.75. Maybe it should be higher?

Regards, Norm :D

[stenzrob]

Hello Stenz, Do you have any "guesstimate's" if they will meet or beat their earnings on Wednesday?

I'm got in at $4.00 and I have a sell order for $4.75. Maybe it should be higher?

Regards, Norm :D
Norm,
I have no guesstimates, only a target that I'd like them to hit.

When they blew away the estimates in July, the stock gapped up and ran 28% in one day, then advanced another 25% in the month after that. I'm not saying this is going to happen again, only that it happened before.

A sell order already entered for a stock you're holding?
Apparently, you're not familiar with my philosophy.
I will let it run until it doesn't want to run anymore. I won't beat a dead horse, but I also won't jump off of a galloping one, I'll wait until it slows to a trot.

If you must set a target, set it at least at the bottom of where it was when it dropped off last July - $5.50. I would expect some resistance there, from long term holders who will finally have a chance to cash in.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=qvdx,uu[h,a]daolyiay[de][pc50!a5.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

[stenzrob]

TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/031022/225598_1.html

Stock is responding appropriately.

[minni17]

:lol: :D :lol: :D

HEY STENZ,

You are HUUUUGE.
I got on board at 7.00. Just saw a trade cross at 10.00
Up 43% in 6 weeks. Annualized that's about a gazillion%.
Incredible....I'll be having philly cheese steak to celebrate tonite with a pre-dinner toast to the stenz!

Thanx guy you and ernie are too huge for words

Minni

[stenzrob]

:lol: :D :lol: :D

HEY STENZ,

You are HUUUUGE.
I got on board at 7.00. Just saw a trade cross at 10.00
Up 43% in 6 weeks. Annualized that's about a gazillion%.
Incredible....I'll be having philly cheese steak to celebrate tonite with a pre-dinner toast to the stenz!

Thanx guy you and ernie are too huge for words

Minni
I'm very glad you're enjoying it, minni.
QVDX reports tonight. I'm hoping for something similar.
I may indulge in a bit of cheesesteak myself!

regards ... stenz

[Jason Monette]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?

[stenzrob]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?
No.
The screen may have been tweaked since you got it.
Try this.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice36&Ti ckers=25

[Jason Monette]

one stock....

MKTG

is this correct?
No.
The screen may have been tweaked since you got it.
Try this.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/finder/finderx.asp?Query=SV1QF150Z04L25ZF151Z04L10ZF136Z0 0F138Z05L4ZF115Z04L50000ZF116Z04F118ZF253Z04L70ZF3 07Z04L85ZF137Z05L0%2e2ZF134Z04L1%2e4ZF3Z04L1%2e5ZF 234Z05L5000000000Z&Name=Accel%20RevQY%2bPrice36&Ti ckers=25

Ok, as you can see, I am new to this forum. Could you go over a step by step what you do afer you do the screen? What are you buy signals, sell signlas, etc?

[Garden Rose]

Know you made a wonderful gain on Stenzrob recommendation :?: , but on what stock???? Thanks.

[Gatorper]

stenzrob[/b]]TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

I sold TRCI for more than 15% gain. In at 8.85 on Oct 16 and out at 10.25 just this afternoon.

[stenzrob]

stenzrob[/b]]TRCI just issued a very nice report for the quarter.
Revenue up 57%, EPS up over 300%.

I sold TRCI for more than 15% gain. In at 8.85 on Oct 16 and out at 10.25 just this afternoon.
Maybe we should start posting "I will sell in 4 to 6 DAYS for a 15% gain"
Minni is in TRCI, too, I believe.

QVDX just beat estimates with record revenue in report just issued.
Could be a lot of fun tomorrow. Bid inching up after hours.

[mrmarket]

I think your string of amazing successes has scared away all the market psychologists.

[stenzrob]

I think your string of amazing successes has scared away all the market psychologists.
That could just be the best possible reward, besides being a few steps closer to a very comfortable retirement.

Did you happen to see the QVDX report? I really like phrases like "We are outperforming our competitors and gaining market share." Guidance provided should lead to another round of estimate and price target increases.

I'm anticipating brief resistance at $6 on the way to $7.50. Could be another one to two month double here.

[Jason Monette]

not gonna answer my question?

[stenzrob]

not gonna answer my question?
Jason,
Your question was pretty open-ended, and I'm not getting paid as an investment counselor here. I saw your question "tell me everything you do, step-by-step" and didn't have time to really do it justice at any time during the last 6 hours or so since you asked it. Why don't we approach it this way ... go back and read a few of my earlier posts where I describe what I do with the candidates from the screen. If you have specific questions about something, ask and I will do my best to answer and/or direct you to a site where you can learn some great stuff. As we go along, I will comment from time-to-time on market conditions or on specific changes I'm making in my portfolio, and we'll all learn together about what works well and what doesn't.

Maybe you didn't intend it this way, but I found "not gonna answer my question?" to be petulant, demanding and disrespectful.

[Jason Monette]

I didn't mean like that at all. Sorry....

I just didn't know if you saw it or not.

[stenzrob]

No problem, Jason.
Start at the second post in this thread. That should give you a good general idea of what I do with the screen results.
Good luck.

regards ... stenz

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, HBIO and GIGM haven't be acting nicely the last week or so. I think that you are still holding them. Unfortunately my basis isn't as low as yours. If your basis was near current price - would you be adding or selling.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, HBIO and GIGM haven't be acting nicely the last week or so. I think that you are still holding them. Unfortunately my basis isn't as low as yours. If your basis was near current price - would you be adding or selling.
Mike,
I am still holding both of those. It's very important to look at price together with volume. Pullbacks on low volume are sometimes buying (or adding) opportunities. It's a real tightrope walk and even a bit of a contradiction to buy stocks that are going up when they pullback. Buy strong stocks in a moment of weakness.

I've actually been expecting GIGM to pullback to around 2.75. I would be adding here if I didn't just buy a boatload of QVDX yesterday.
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600640698&tid=gigm&sid= 1600640698&mid=23806

HBIO's pullback has also been on very low volume compared to the advances. I would give it a little while to digest the advance of a month ago before deciding whether to add or sell. At this point it's a "strong hold".

[stenzrob]

Mike asked about GIGM and HBIO, but the one I was holding that has been making me nervous is MTEX.

I established a position at $7.30 just before it dropped some more, and more than doubled my position at $5.71. It bounced, but not on much volume, and there's been very little interest since then.

I sold all my MTEX today for $6.06, for a 17% loss on the original position and a 6% gain on the second buy.

I am TINY !!!

[stenzrob]

Why I like QVDX a lot -
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600604485&tid=xcar&sid= 1600604485&mid=8901

[mrmarket]

Are any of these guys optionable??

[tokyojoeskid]

Hey Stenz quick question
own both of these stocks, obviously one just made a run i am in around 4(qvdx), gigm i believe is also about to take off. Got a little extra money on the side but will only be adding to one of these postions. what you think i should add to? can see great potential in both stocks. just bought some jan06 calls for utsi, what a great company unbelievable unfair market valuation, seems to be artificially held down, cant explain it but two years from now the kinks will be worked out, and i will look back with a big smile :lol: well back to the question at hand you think gigm or qvdx??
thanks for your opion in advance
tjk

[stenzrob]

Between GIGM and QVDX, I like QVDX more, but the answer in your situation depends on how much you already have in each. I also don't know how many total positions you have - I like to diversify into 4 to 6 positions. Sometimes the one I like the most isn't the one that takes off. Even in narrowing down from my screen to my actual positions, I see stocks from my screen that I didn't buy doing very well.

Ernie, I don't know if any of these are optionable. Typically, the small (micro) caps I mess with are not.

Currently long QVDX (overweight), NTST, GIGM, HBIO, TRCI.

[tokyojoeskid]

currentyl sndk(overweight since 15), long o6 utsi calls, nutr, hbio, gigm and qvdx. added to my qvdx postion so now gigm and qvdx are equal. got a little cas h on the side, may put the rest in gigm or run my screener and find a new one. was in cyd thought it had a climax top so i got out of it.
adios
tjk

[stenzrob]

currentyl sndk(overweight since 15), long o6 utsi calls, nutr, hbio, gigm and qvdx. added to my qvdx postion so now gigm and qvdx are equal. got a little cas h on the side, may put the rest in gigm or run my screener and find a new one. was in cyd thought it had a climax top so i got out of it.
adios
tjk
Those are some excellent positions there, tjk.
Care to share your screener criteria?
How did you identify sndk when it was $15?

[tokyojoeskid]

ive been in and out of sndk since 1999. thought was a great stock then but i didnt want to fall in love with it. they were so huge into flash memory and just looking around when i was in highschool with kids wanting to buy digital cameras and the possiblities of use of flash in cell phones then it happening. When i saw sndk trading near its book value along with the huge growth potential and its already huge growth, i had to take a big postion especially with the TA in it starting to turn around. my dad and i both bought in and he went extra with some calls. i also sold some puts with 20 strike jan 04's that are now worthless (.05) were 10 bucks at the time. its been good to me and Eli is the man. about my screener ill get back to you i gots to get to class Texas A and M maybe ill learn something.
tjk

[stenzrob]

Another quarterly report coming up -
First NTST on 10/20 (they since shot themselves in the foot with a warrant repricing) which ran from $12 to $13.50 in the five minutes following the surprise report
Then there was TRCI on 10/22, jumped from $8.50 to over $10 after theirs.
QVDX also on 10/22, gapped up and ran like crazy.

I'm still holding HBIO, too. They just announced they'll be reporting on 10/28. Will this be another 20% pop, or will my luck run out? Stay tuned for the next exciting episode of "As The Portfolio Turns"

Many more big gains, and I'll have to start shopping for a tin ceiling for my kitchen.

[tokyojoeskid]

wasnt with the stock before last earnings announcement, does it usually behave like this before earnings or is something leaking out, volume isnt off the charts or anything so im still holding on.
tjk

[stenzrob]

wasnt with the stock before last earnings announcement, does it usually behave like this before earnings or is something leaking out, volume isnt off the charts or anything so im still holding on.
tjk
I wasn't with HBIO before the previous earnings reports, so I don't know if this is normal or not. Trying to decide if this is a buying opportunity on a test of the 50 day and filling of the gap from a month ago and therefore healthy for the chart going forward, or a wake-up call. I was in it at $6, so I can still afford to hold. As you say, volume isn't unusually high.

[stenzrob]

I decided to take a chance on this being an opportunity to buy HBIO, and bought some more for $7. Fingers and toes crossed.

[Anonymous]

Have stayed out of it stenzrob as I realized I was hogging things up with the bec1wnbc66 posts (actually finally established a new moniker), but just wanted to say how impressed I have been with your success and hope you continue to do well with HBIO etc.

[stenzrob]

I decided to take a chance on this being an opportunity to buy HBIO, and bought some more for $7. Fingers and toes crossed.
Sold the new (bought yesterday for $7.00) HBIO position for $7.70; 10% in one day annualized is about 2.3 gazillion %. Still holding the original HBIO positions in both my trading account and IRA, just couldn't resist the quick profit.

CRIO (I'm currently out of it) is showing some interesting activity today.

[stenzrob]

CRIO just came out with their report. Revenue growth has slowed, this will drop it off my screen when the numbers finally get through to msn. If you're in it on my recommendation, I recommend getting back out.

Still waiting for HBIO's report.

GIGM popped nicely today, in keeping with the chart pattern, but is down after hours. The NTES report is dragging the sector down.

[tokyojoeskid]

well the results are in and from a first glance im definately impressed. Took some guts on your buy at 7 bucks but i definately wanted to do the same thing just had one problem, my pockets arent deep enough YET aarg. mrmarkets last two picks are looking pretty sweet, give the hairy man props for them. rev on hbio was over the 20 mil you hoped for, coming in at 21.1 million 65% rev growth, eps was .03 compared to .00.

on an off topic note Utsi, it is so unbelievable how they come in with great results but the market shuns them over and over. telling them they need to diversify more, but if they were purely a chinese company like a nte, sohu sina ect. their stock price would be through the roof. what gives my patience, i think not, im long with the jan 06 calls woot.

finally gigm blasts off but ntes has to shadow their explosion, three bucks plus would be a great new base.

last and final, never even knew about oneil's books reading both of them now, i really enjoy these things, my friends think im weird but i can live with that. whos going to prosper? those who have the smarts and the disipline.
peace

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, if you were buying a new stock tommorrow from the latest MSN screen what would you pick? I kinda like SWIR.

[stenzrob]

tokyojoe,
Thanks very much for your observations. I've been pretty lucky lately, guessing that QVDX and HBIO would report very good results and guidance and that CRIO would not. I enjoyed O'Neill's books and gained some additional perspective, but like anything, I don't follow it to the letter, just add it to the stew.

carribean_mike,
I haven't yet gone back to look at the complete list again, so this answer is not as well-informed as it should be. I am pleased with recent results and guidance by QVDX and HBIO, so I like those. I continue to hold GIGM, the best results there can be had by using TA. I also like LENS, despite having sold it a little while ago - considering getting back in. I was in SWIR from $8 to $12 from the end of August to early September, and I actually do not like the way the chart looks right now.

regards ... joisey_stenz

[stenzrob]

Somebody must be listening to me!

I said I liked LENS, and all of a sudden it breaks out to a new high on heavy volume. Who did that? Was it you, caribbean_mike? Or maybe it was minni... I picked some up for $12.88, more than the $12 that I had sold it for two weeks ago.

TRCI, which I am still holding, and several here sold for 15% profits already, also broke out to a new high on heavy volume today. My TRCI position is now up over 80% in two months.

[stenzrob]

HBIO featured on Motley Fool column:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/031029/1067439480_1.html

Some good historical background for anyone interested.

[carribean_mike]

Stenz, I didn't think that my buying would create such a buying panic :)

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenz, what does your current portfolio look like?

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, what does your current portfolio look like?
Trading portfolio, in order of position size:
QVDX, QVDX, LENS, NTST, HBIO, GIGM

IRA portfolio (usually a slower turnover), in order of size:
TRCI, HBIO, NTST

I am thinking seriously about switching some stuff around to eliminate the overlap between the two accounts.

Sure wish I still had the FARO that I bought at $6 and sold at $10.

[stenzrob]

Trading portfolio, in order of position size:
QVDX, QVDX, LENS, NTST, HBIO, GIGM

IRA portfolio (usually a slower turnover), in order of size:
TRCI, HBIO, NTST

I am thinking seriously about switching some stuff around to eliminate the overlap between the two accounts.

Just sold HBIO out of trading account for $7.57. That is a 25% profit since buying for $6.02 on 9/15, plus the 10% return on the extra intraday-dip buy at $7 that was sold the next day at $7.70. My trading account was 120% invested, anyway, so something had to go.

Still holding HBIO in my IRA, also bought at $6.

[MEA_1956]

Somebody must be listening to me!

I said I liked LENS, and all of a sudden it breaks out to a new high on heavy volume. Who did that? Was it you, caribbean_mike? Or maybe it was minni... I picked some up for $12.88, more than the $12 that I had sold it for two weeks ago.

TRCI, which I am still holding, and several here sold for 15% profits already, also broke out to a new high on heavy volume today. My TRCI position is now up over 80% in two months.
T R C I I HEAR YOU NOW BABY, THIS LITTLE PUMPKIN IS READY TO POP. Theirs room in life for a whole month of this type of a brake out. Just Say the WORD and we are ready to pull the plug. @ the present time we are at 62% . Thank you, And feed me more>>>>> MEA

[minni17]

OK Stenz,

TRCI has skyrocketed. You are HUGE.

Ran your screen, did some dd and came up with LCOR.
However stock has had a pretty good three day run and looks pricey.
They will report earnings on wed. Could be a popper ala TRCI and QVDX.
Have you considered this one? You seem to be chart reader...would you wait for apullback given recent up action?
What do ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Minni,
Please, don't call me HUGE. There is only one HUGE one here.

I haven't had the chance to look closely at LCOR, but I saw that it was on the screen. Medical IT, like NTST that I've been following for over a year, QVDX, and some other nice ones. A lot of these are running due to increased revenues. I guess the hospitals have money to spend.

As I've suggested before, if you really like it, you might buy some now and some more if it pulls back.

I just added a small chunk of API to my IRA, without waiting for a pullback.

[jay_why_dee]

((I just added a small chunk of API to my IRA, without waiting for a pullback.))

Hi Mr. Stenzrob, I don't understand why do you like this stock? I've never owned it but it appears to burn cash faster than it earns it. Maybe you have a gut feeling?

How do you feel about SIRI? They can burn some big bucks. Could be a 4 bagger by the end of next year......arf,arf

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why do you like this stock? I've never owned it but it appears to burn cash faster than it earns it. Maybe you have a gut feeling?

Why do I like API?
Revenue up 71% qtr/qtr, and they were profitable last qtr despite making acquisitions and closing/integrating manufacturing facilities. No debt.

From their latest report, "Although we retained the costs of operating the Garland facility for a portion of the quarter, we were successful in generating operating profit due to increased revenues and operating efficiencies related to the consolidation. Looking ahead, this consolidation will further lower our operating and SG&A costs as a percent of sales, to ultimately improve profitability and enhance shareholder value." This suggests earnings will grow rapidly in quarters ahead if revenues continue to grow.

He continued, "Our backlog is continuing to grow, due in part to increased demand in our military and medical segments, and we remain confident that we will achieve our objective of 40% growth in sales for the year." Well, there's the continued revenue growth, then.

On the technical side, recently broke out to new 3 year high, escaping a long-running trading range on the highest daily volume since somewhere around the the middle of 2000.

This could drop right back off again and be difficult to exit if interest wanes, but could double, triple or more in a hurry if interest continues. Institutional ownership is less than 10%, so there's still a lot of accumulation possible.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Just got rid of the rest of my CRIO and all of MTEX last week...so now I only have GIGM NENG QVDX and TRCI. API scares me a bit, but I might blindly jump in with a chunk of the profits some of your picks have already made me. Have any other bits of genius to share? At this pace, I won't have to take out any more loans for the rest of grad school :lol:

[stenzrob]

Just got rid of the rest of my CRIO and all of MTEX last week...so now I only have GIGM NENG QVDX and TRCI. API scares me a bit, but I might blindly jump in with a chunk of the profits some of your picks have already made me. Have any other bits of genius to share? At this pace, I won't have to take out any more loans for the rest of grad school :lol:
Looks like you're doing just fine Chris. Of the four that you're still holding, I would be most nervous about NENG. I'm liking LENS for a nice run after their earnings report whenever they get around to it. I just started looking at NICE, which just turned up on the screen.

As a warning example, MSI is still on the screen and somebody even asked about it here a few weeks ago(I never really liked it) but their report was not good (growth slowed considerably) and it dropped pretty hard today. This can happen to any stock, of course, and it happened to me with GORX a while ago. I got out of CRIO based on technicals just before their recent report and it happened to them. Hope you got out of it without much damage.

[Gatorper]

Stenzrob: Why do I like API?

API bid/ask too close... tighter than the space btwn my teeth
:shock:

[ChrisZXWJ]

Actually, I sold half of CRIO the day of earnings when it ran up big, and I sold the other half a day after earnings came out after it rebounded a little bit. So, the only damange was the profit I lost. Not too bad.

NICE is a bit too expensive for me price wise. I know, I know, it doesn't make a difference whether a stock rises from 3 to 6 or 20 to 40, but there's a psychological thing in it for me.

This may be a dumb question, but isn't a tight bid-ask usually a good thing?

[stenzrob]

API bid/ask too close... tighter than the space btwn my teeth
I'm with Chris - what's your problem with that? I dislike stocks where the bid/ask is larger than the space between my teeth.

[drchrislee]

Hey Stenz, have you considered putting up a table of your positions, price and date you got in on, etc, like the Huge one has on his home page? I think both of your methods are great, and I'd like to spend some time analyzing yours a bit further, but it's tough to compile your movements when they're spread over a bunch of threads.

Thanks

[Risky]

Setting up a page with what you're doing would be very benificial Stenz. :wink:
Are you still looking at Crio around $2 range?
Deidra

[IamOrion]

Stenz,
Have you purchased any more QVDX since it's recent pullback under $5.00. Is your outlook still good on this one. I never got in but watch it. Thinking of getting in here under 5.

Thanks,
Orion

[stenzrob]

1. I'd like to summarize my trades and positions like MM has, just haven't gotten around to it.
2. CRIO - I'm not interested in CRIO at $2. I only think there may be technical support for it there.
3. QVDX - Haven't added to my position, yet. I'll have to look into it further. As you all should know, I'm interested in revenue growth and stock price momentum. RWAV revenue has been declining, the first question is why and is it something that can be fixed by QVDX. The second question is what the market reaction to it will be, and not just today. Whatever I might think of the business prospects of the acquisition doesn't matter if instiuitions and other big investors don't like it.

[tokyojoeskid]

might want to add a postion in utsi
finally getting some recognition it deserves
http://yahoo.smartmoney.com/stockscreen/index.cfm?story=20031028intro&afl=yahoo

[drchrislee]

I've taken the liberty of compiling all the trades you've mentioned in this thread and put them in a table. Excuse the weird html code and the funny values - it's an export from excel.

I've tried to treat every separate buy/sell as a separate item, even if they are in the same security. Feel free to tweak/use/modify/post whatever.

http://www.clpayne.com/sheet004.html

[stenzrob]

I've taken the liberty of compiling all the trades you've mentioned in this thread and put them in a table. Excuse the weird html code and the funny values - it's an export from excel.

I've tried to treat every separate buy/sell as a separate item, even if they are in the same security. Feel free to tweak/use/modify/post whatever.

http://www.clpayne.com/sheet004.html
Wow. That was a fair amount of research you did into my trades.
For completeness, perhaps not every trade was posted:

QVDX
Bought at $4.53 on 9/4/03, sold for $5.47 on 10/31/03
Bought more at $3.68 on 9/29/03, sold for $5.47 on 10/31/03
Bought (a lot) more at $4.16 on 10/22/03, still open

NTST
Bought (a lot) at $4.90 on 6/20/03, sold half of it for $11.98 on 10/17/03
Bought that half back at $10.83 on 10/24/03, still open
Bought some also at $12.86 on 10/20/03, still open

TRCI
Bought (a lot) at $6 on 8/26/03
Sold some for $7.95 on 9/19/03
Sold some for $14 on 10/30/03
Still holding some

API
Bought at $2.08 on 10/31/03, still open

HBIO
In addition to the trades you have, I still have some left bought at $6 on 9/15/03

MTEX
The ill-timed lot I paid $7.30 for was on 9/17/03

CRIO
Bought at $1.60 on 6/27/03, sold at $3.15 on 9/3/03
Bought at $3.00 on 9/8/03, sold at $3.13 on 9/24/03
Bought at $2.79 on 9/26/03, sold at $2.98 on 10/15/03

If you decide to take the time to fill in those blanks, I'll try to be more clear about my trades in the future. Or, you could e-mail me the spreadsheet, I'm at yahoo dot com.

[drchrislee]

I've updated the sheet with the new info Stenz provided, and for the benefit of all, have posted that as well.

http://www.clpayne.com/stocks2.xls

[stenzrob]

TRCI retrace/pullback on lower volume than the advance.
The lot that I sold for $14, I just now bought back for $12.32.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some SCKT for $3.79.
This was on my screen a while ago, but fell off as the price settled in and the 3 month RSI fell off. It broke out on record volume yesterday, and is showing some follow through today.

[tokyojoeskid]

UTSI

this stock is going to be beyond HUGE, buying more tomm at open even though that is not when i like too purchase stocks. finally the market got the diversification it was looking for when utsi announced another deal in australia and now the joint venture with panasonic for 3g phones the future of phones in china : http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031105/telecoms_utstarcom_panasonic_1.html

do your own DD but really please someone tell me that there is something wrong with this stock, just came off a double bottom also. just the same kind of info surrounding sndk when it was around 11, awesome product increasing revenues, increasing eps i could go on about it forever but unfortuantely i have to study and pack for my trip to pennslyvania the aggies are going to kick penn states and pittsburgh's ass this weekend. football you ask? no no my friend, Swimming

doubling up tomm on utsi
woot
tjk

[mrmarket]

UTSI

this stock is going to be beyond HUGE, buying more tomm at open even though that is not when i like too purchase stocks. finally the market got the diversification it was looking for when utsi announced another deal in australia and now the joint venture with panasonic for 3g phones the future of phones in china : http://biz.yahoo.com/rc/031105/telecoms_utstarcom_panasonic_1.html

do your own DD but really please someone tell me that there is something wrong with this stock, just came off a double bottom also. just the same kind of info surrounding sndk when it was around 11, awesome product increasing revenues, increasing eps i could go on about it forever but unfortuantely i have to study and pack for my trip to pennslyvania the aggies are going to kick penn states and pittsburgh's ass this weekend. football you ask? no no my friend, Swimming

doubling up tomm on utsi
woot
tjk



If I had to buy a stock and bury it for a year, UTSI would be one of them.

[RL]

Hi Stenz,
Maybe you would like to look at this one not a mm stock but looks good tom. But what do I know. Just bought a bunch.

[stenzrob]

the one I was holding that has been making me nervous is MTEX.

I established a position at $7.30 just before it dropped some more, and more than doubled my position at $5.71. It bounced, but not on much volume, and there's been very little interest since then.

I sold all my MTEX today for $6.06, for a 17% loss on the original position and a 6% gain on the second buy.

I am TINY !!!
... and getting TINIER every day. After the LENS fiasco (which I'm still holding), I see now that MTEX reported very good results and is now up about 40% from where I sold it. Seemed like the right thing to do at the time. Live and learn!

[stenzrob]

Just bought some GMAI for $8.55. It's been on the screen for a while, I watched it run up, and it seems to be building a new base from which to launch.

[minni17]

Hey Stenz,

What's your take on API's earnings report?

Looked pretty good to me. I think the market will like and will respond accordingly? Whadda ya think?

Minni

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz,

What's your take on API's earnings report?

Looked pretty good to me. I think the market will like and will respond accordingly? Whadda ya think?

Minni
Minni,
API's report looks good to me, just what I like to see. Revenue growth is very strong, I also like that this is across several market areas. This is alos what I like about TRCI, by the way. As far as market reaction ... who the heck knows? The market perplexes me at times. I can only hope for an appropriate reaction.
regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.

[drchrislee]

Wow, very well done Stenz.

[tokyojoeskid]

stenz you still holdin gigm
I dont like its recent behavior I want to pull out but really not sure. Earnings coming up . . . what ya gonna do
tjk
im in at 2.73

[stenzrob]

stenz you still holdin gigm
I dont like its recent behavior I want to pull out but really not sure. Earnings coming up . . . what ya gonna do
tjk
im in at 2.73
I don't really like the recent action in GIGM, either. It fell out of the nice stairstep pattern on not insignificant volume. I'll wait and see if $2.50 provides some support.

I did buy some VLGC today for $2.01, just before it dropped off at the end of the day. Check revenue growth and progress toward profitability, then see that they have provided guidance for continued growth with a swing into profitability. Extremely volatile.

[stenzrob]

I love TRCI, TRCI loves me back. But anyway, I just sold the half of my position that I had bought back at $12.32 on 11/5 for $17.49, for a 42% gain in 5 days. Letting the original $6 position run, and looking for a pullback to get the second half back again.
Right after I sold those, I put in a buy order to get them back at $15.80, where I had guessed it might drop momentarily to "fill the gap". I have no idea why gaps often fill, but they do, so I try to play it sometimes. It dipped alright, but only down to $15.90. Missed it by the proverbial thin dime. I have since removed that order and will just wait to see what happens with it.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey stenz...can I get another list of your open positions? Hard to keep track of your trades sometimes. I love VLGC, bought some this morning.

Chris

[stenzrob]

Hey stenz...can I get another list of your open positions? Hard to keep track of your trades sometimes. I love VLGC, bought some this morning.

Chris
Sure Chris. Not in any particular order,
LENS, NTST, SCKT, VLGC, QVDX, GIGM, API, TRCI, HBIO, GMAI

Looks like you got a better price for VLGC than I did.
TRCI is turning into a real adventure, it's been down 10%, up 10% and back again, all just today.

[The Kid]

I just picked up VLGC at $1.84 eight minutes ago. Good luck to all.

Be the Stenz you know you can be. :D

[stenzrob]

I just picked up VLGC at $1.84 eight minutes ago. Good luck to all.

Be the Stenz you know you can be. :D
Nicely done, Kid. Best of luck with it.

[tokyojoeskid]

what turned you on to this company? earnings out for toinght do they usually beat estimates? Rev growth looks decent no debt . . .
maybe big upside potential?
-the uniformed tjk

[stenzrob]

what turned you on to this company? earnings out for toinght do they usually beat estimates? Rev growth looks decent no debt . . .
maybe big upside potential?
-the uniformed tjk
Found it just messing around with my screen to see what might turn up. I have some mixed feelings about it, it's definitely one of the riskier and more volatile slots in my portfolio. From what I can see, there are no estimates, but there is some guidance from the company that indicates high confidence in continued strong revenue growth and accelerating profits in the next year.

[Tsevni98]

I first ran into you back when you owned TUNE between 9-14 dollars a share.


TUNE WAS supposed to be a great stock. I still dont know what happened to that one.

Happy to find you befriend Mr. Market and enjoy your board as your picks are cheaper plays, and you post more of a journal than mr. market does.

I unsuccessfully tried CRIO a couple months ago. And am thinking of trying a STENZ play again. Out of your holdings that you just posted, which do you like the most ? Please dont say TRCI as that has had quite a run.

thanks

TSEVNI

[stenzrob]

I first ran into you back when you owned TUNE between 9-14 dollars a share.

TUNE WAS supposed to be a great stock. I still dont know what happened to that one.
Overestimation of potential market led to overvaluation of TUNE stock (I bashed the heck out of it on the message board when it was priced at over 10x sales) followed by a series of blunders and screwups by management, that's what happened.

I unsuccessfully tried CRIO a couple months ago. And am thinking of trying a STENZ play again. Out of your holdings that you just posted, which do you like the most ? Please dont say TRCI as that has had quite a run.

thanks

TSEVNI
Just because it has had quite a run is no reason for it not to be my current favorite. Also, the idea of my portfolio is to hold several that might explode, on the idea that one 100% gainer balances out several non-performers, so just picking one of my picks may result in unsatisfactory results. Now that all the disclaimers are out of the way, the answer to your question is QVDX and SCKT. VLGC could also prove to be interesting, but is very volatile.

Good luck ... stenz

[The Kid]

Stenz,

You rock the house!! That goes without saying. Your stock picks have been very successful, so much so that even the Huge One has commended you. My question to you is this -- Is that a picture of you in your avatar?

Thanks,

The Kid

[stenzrob]

I bought SCKT for $3.79 after it broke out to a new 52 week high on higher than average volume about a week ago. After resting a bit, it did it again yesterday and is following through (so far) today, putting my position up over 16% in one week, but this is just the start for it, IMO. I have no idea what it might do day by day, but the price and volume trend along with the solid fundamentals to back it up tells me this stock could be a big winner. We shall see.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

You rock the house!! That goes without saying. Your stock picks have been very successful, so much so that even the Huge One has commended you. My question to you is this -- Is that a picture of you in your avatar?

Thanks,

The Kid
Thanks, Kid. That is not a picture of me in my avatar. That's what I'm planning to take to the plastic surgeon to use as a guide when I have made enough money to pay for the improvements.

[billyjoe]

I've always been amazed by those who buy and hold, never giving a thought to a small fast gain. Does anyone have a simple table showing the results over a period of time contrasting short gains of 5% - 10% per month compounded vs. yearly gains of 50%- 100%? I seem to have little problem picking breakouts, the problem is the reversal that usually happens within a week. Maybe a 3-5 day holding period would work. Most of the paperwork concerning IRS is eliminated by doing this in a self directed IRA. No capital gain worries. Billy Joe

[tokyojoeskid]

nothing seemed to exciting about earnings. looks like a selloff after hours. I think i may sell in the morning, one thing i like is they are going to concentrate on revenue growth, havnet looked into report this is just from first glance.
stenz what you thinkg?
tjk

[stenzrob]

tjk - The GIGM report is nothing to get excited about, IMO. Most of the sequential revenue growth was in offline, which has pretty low margins, and the previous quarter was cited as being particularly bad due to SARS. The broadband revenues were flat. Their burn rate is very low, and I think they're making the right moves. Downside is limited by the price being a small premium to book value.

I think there's still money to be made in this one, but it will take a while. As I mentioned to The Kid in his poll thread, I like to be in 5 or 6 positions that have the greatest chance (IMO) of explosive gains. I will probably be looking for an honorable exit. Since I bought at $1.60, I guess anywhere around here could be considered an honorable exit.

Looking back, I should have been quicker to sell as soon as the stairstep pattern was violated with some volume on Monday, as you yourself pointed out on Tuesday.

[stenzrob]

I will probably be looking for an honorable exit. Since I bought at $1.60, I guess anywhere around here could be considered an honorable exit.Out at $2.29, for a 43% gain after having been up over 100% at one point. Easy come, easy go.

[tokyojoeskid]

Well stenz unfortunately i didnt getout of gigmwhen ishould have andthe space bar atthe computer lab is a piece of 8***. dont know if i should wait for a short sypothy run before i sell, if that doesnt happen that just means ilose more money. Now if i do sell (bought at 2.70) just means im going to have to make 40% on my next pick, dont you love the market.. . ha oh well im young, next time i have to stick to my rule book. well what you think sell now? if you were in myshoes. i think i may sell half, watch the charts more careful and unload the rest if it hits 2.
thanks
tjk

[stenzrob]

Sorry to hear about that, tjk. What should you do with GIGM? Sometimes stocks that sell off like this will bounce in the short term, providing a way to exit with less loss. But, sometimes not. What you should do depends on your pain threshold and your goals.

Let me share bit of the stenz philosophy - maybe this will help, maybe not. (And note that very little of this is consistent with the $$$MR_MARKET$$$ method.)

1. You don't "have to" make 40% (or 15%) on your next pick, every trade should be as profitable as it will allow and you can make it, preferably in as short a time period as possible.

2. Every day is a new day, and it doesn't matter what's happened before except as it might serve as an indicator of the future (TA).

If you are holding $10,000 worth of stock and something terrible happens and it drops 20%, you now have $8,000 worth of stock. The $2,000 is gone - deal with it. You don't have $10,000 anymore, and the sooner you forget about the $2,000 and move on the better. The only purpose served by thinking about your loss at all is if you can learn something from it to prevent it from happening again. As I said, GIGM broke out of it's stairstep pattern before the report and that's when we should have sold. I was too slow. Believe it or not, I don't really care that I lost 10% on my GIGM position from yesterday afternoon to this morning. What bothers me more (meaning that I have something to learn from it) is the 9% that I lost from $2.75 when the pattern was clearly broken down to $2.52.

Now, what would would you do today if you had $8,000 to invest?

- Would you buy that very stock for the long term because you think the 20% hit was too much given the event that caused it? If so, hold it.

- Do you think that bargain hunters will cause a short-lived bounce that won't follow through in the longer term? If so, then hold until it looks like the bounce is fading or until you have another more compelling idea and then get out. Do NOT continue to hold because you hope it will get back to your purchase price - the stock does not care about your hopes, what your purchase price was, and does not listen to your prayers!

- Were you just as disappointed as the market seems to have been? If so, then just sell it and move on to your new best possible thing to do with $8,000.

None of this should involve any emotion (excitement, fear, greed, distress, panic) on your part, only a cold-blooded analysis of what the emotions of others might be.

3. Holding a stock is essentially the same as buying it. Holding a stock means you have decided not to buy something else. Every day that you hold a stock, you are not buying something else with the money you have tied up in it.

4. All of this applies just as much to a stock on which you're up, however much or little. Your position is up 15%? So what! Does the chart or valuation lead you to believe that it will continue going up, whether by price & volume, breakout, or R^2? Then keep it. Up 30%, 50%, 75%, 100%, 176% (like I currently am with TRCI)? So what! What is your best guess about the future direction - based on fundamentals, valuation, TA, whatever. And you must make this decision about every position every day, unless you're on vacation.

I'll tell you what I think Ernie's stock-picking method and mine have in common, even though we get completely different results.
A) There is something about the company's business (revenue growth and/or earnings growth) that says the company is doing well and improving.
B) There is something about the valuation (p/e and/or p/s) that says it ought to be priced higher.
C) Finally, there is something about the chart (relative strength, increasing volume, r^2) that says others are recognizing the first two things.
If you read the prospectus for a growth fund, you'll see that they look primarily at A, a value fund looks at B. Pure momentum traders look only at C.

Sorry I got a little long-winded.
Hope this helps ... stenz

[mrmarket]

Stenz...that was a friggin awesome post.

[tokyojoeskid]

It was a great post.
A lot of what you said I can see in the words of Oneil, very much appreciated the time you put into that.(did i just sound like yoda . . .weird)
I ended up selling the whole postion, I dont think there is much upside potentienal in the stock(short term) it def is not a A+ in my eyes so why should i keep holding it. there really is no point holding a stock going down "praying" it will go back up, so many people lost money this way 2000-2002. When looking at stocks you should only hold and keep holding the best stocks that fit your criteria.
I feel that yes my money can definately be put to work elsewhere and look forward to finding a great stock in the process of breaking out, wasnt my biggest holding so not a big deal but still had to swallow my pride for the loss, hindsight is always 20/20 but i will probably kick myself three times for not pulling the trigger earlier when it did break down.

watch nutr, if breaks 13 could be a quick couple points, some people try to compare it to a young usna. Only thing held over this stock is the distribution of shares by Bain(holdings) mostly finished for now though, good thing in the end more institutions can hold.

qvdx still looking solid, hbio finally gaining some ground.
man did anyone gobble up amd when it was around 10 was a no brainer but didnt have funds, itig ran up nicely in a week from 4-6.
On the look out for a winner, running the screen toinght hoepfully ill have time this weekend to find one, amist worthless homework/studying

Quick question to everyone out of college, do you use anything from your first four years of college???

[Karel]

Hi stenzrob, you like buying stocks that have run up and now might be pausing a bit for the next the run. This reminds me of Jon Markman's Flare-Out Growth, or FOG (http://