Stenzrob's specials

[peanuts]

This one seems to be working out OK so far. :)

Congrats on your 1000th post to your thread!!!

Wait... I thought we were suppposed to contribute to me reaching 2000...

hey, you wanna race? :D

[stenzrob]

Congrats on your 1000th post to your thread!!!

Wait... I thought we were suppposed to contribute to me reaching 2000...

hey, you wanna race? :D
You're way too prolific for me to compete, peanuts.
My thread has 1000 posts on 100 pages.
A numerologist could have a field day with that!
But hey, why does your thread have more posts, but mine has like 4 times as many "views" ?
I wonder if it counts if I keep hitting F5 to refresh, just to see if I have posted anything new while I wasn't looking.

[stenzrob]

bought some BLUD yesterday at $32.50

[Websman]

bought some BLUD yesterday at $32.50

Looks like BLUD may bounce off the 50 day MA at 30.78, before continuing up. I may join you, if that happens. I think you'll still come out ahead, if you're willing to hang on.

I'm holding RWC from 6.13...it's not looking great at this point, but could it could always turn around when I least expect it.

[stenzrob]

Looks like BLUD may bounce off the 50 day MA at 30.78, before continuing up. I may join you, if that happens. I think you'll still come out ahead, if you're willing to hang on.

I'm holding RWC from 6.13...it's not looking great at this point, but could it could always turn around when I least expect it.
I'm still holding that BLUD stake. It's still in an uptrend, although I didn't time it very well.

I am liking the IMOS action since the stock swapping deal with SPIL was announced. The drop that wasn't looking good was now, I believe, some kind of pre-announcement maneuvering on somebody's part. Another dime or so to $7.50 with the volume continuing could make this look very much like a breakout.

[stenzrob]

Looks like BLUD is just going to stand and wait for the 50 day to catch up to it.

IMOS, meanwhile, may be finally staging the breakout that I have been patiently waiting for almost a month now (let it not be said that I don't think long term!). Bought at $7.18 on 1/16 and same amount again at $7.00 on 2/06.

[stenzrob]

...Currently holding CRDN...
Bought this at $56.55 on 12/5/06. It peaked at $62 after raising guidance, and really looked like it was off to the races. Then it was downgraded by FBR. Bottomed under $52, and FBR switched their call, again, as I noted earlier. As of today, my position is back in the green, ever so slightly. Earnings report is Mon 2/26 pre-open. Could be interesting, since the short position is still pretty large at over 20% of the float.
regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

IMOS, meanwhile, may be finally staging the breakout that I have been patiently waiting for almost a month now (let it not be said that I don't think long term!). Bought at $7.18 on 1/16 and same amount again at $7.00 on 2/06.
Sold all my IMOS today at $7.67. Might be a mistake, but it has run into resistance at about this level so many times in the last few years that it just seems like the prudent thing to do. Looking over my list for something to replace it.
regards ... stenz

[peanuts]

Looking over my list for something to replace it.
regards ... stenz

Congrats on the profit!

When was the last time you looked at FTK?
Weekly Chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ftk&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=15&id=p53293197672)
Daily Chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ftk&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=5&id=p78609886459)

[stenzrob]

Congrats on the profit!

When was the last time you looked at FTK?
Weekly Chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ftk&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=15&id=p53293197672)
Daily Chart (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ftk&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=5&id=p78609886459)
Don't recall that I ever did look at that one, peanuts. Although I did trade FTEK for a while recently. Only one letter different!

FTK looks like it's hit a peak and is getting ready to roll over to me, volume decreasing as it approaches high. Maybe I'm missing something?

[peanuts]

Don't recall that I ever did look at that one, peanuts. Although I did trade FTEK for a while recently. Only one letter different!

FTK looks like it's hit a peak and is getting ready to roll over to me, volume decreasing as it approaches high. Maybe I'm missing something?

I mistakenly thought you were once an owner of some FTK stock, so that's why I brought it up. It was the ticker resemblance to FTEK that got me. It might be rolling over, or might be breaking out to new highs. I guess time will tell.

It's not a bad company, though. I do own a few shares that I picked up recently. I'm thinking of switching the funds to DWSN if the breakout doesn't happen with FTK. But even if it does, I wouldn't mind owning some DWSN on a bigger pullback, either.

[stenzrob]

just bought some AEIS at $20.30.
will explain more later.

[stenzrob]

Ran a screen looking for solid financials, rev growth, and increasing average volume with high 3 month relative strength. This screen currently throws out 21 matches:
DTAS, FORG, IO, ALO, CCBL, GOAM, AEIS, CXTI, HLEX, FCFS, RADS, RNO, SLNK, SPAR, GLDN, KALU, CRY, USAP, BITI, DWSN, LORL

A few of these were recently acquired (DTAS,SLNK), hence the increase in volume and relative strength. Some are cases of flatline for years with a recent extreme spike - those may be just as likely to crash as to continue up, in my opinion.

Then there are a few that look really interesting. CCBL's chart looks like a $$$MR_MARKET$$$ pick, and SPAR was on the Honest Abe final five. FORG has attracted a following on the POTW thread. Somebody mentioned DWSN recently as well. GLDN is on Doug's momo list for today. Something attracted me to AEIS.

AEIS has some analysts, and sports a PEG of less than 1.0 based on estimates of long term growth. The long term growth estimate is not inconsistent with proven growth - I have been burned in the past by companies for which future growth prospects were significantly higher than what they had ever done in the past, so that's worthg checking. Trading volume is decent and consistent (but higher recently, per the screen), and the recent rise in price and volume was triggered by a good report at the beginning of the month. Pulled back on lighter volume, then started to move up again. That's where I bought.

I'm no technical analyst, but I like the look of the chart for various time periods. The company is tied in to semiconductor manufacturing, so I will probably start watching some of the industry stalwarts a little more closely for sector clues. My screen turned up HOLX in this sector several years ago and I never bought it for some reason. It's done well, and recently broke out to a new high. It doesn't show up on my screen now due to price/sales ratio greater than my threshold of 3, it's over 5. If I reduce the threshold to 2.5, the screen list shrinks to 16. The 5 that drop off are in red font in the list above. Oddly, AEIS has the lowest 3 month relative strength of the 16 that are left. If I raise the 3 month relative strength threshold from 75 to 85, AEIS, HLEX and RNO drop off.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Forgot to also mention that one version of my Accel Rev + Price screen turns up only two hits: HURC and AEIS.
... stenz

[stenzrob]

Just bought some MKSI at $25.06. Same sector as AEIS - semi manufacturing. Also the same sector as WFR, mentioned elsewhere. This industry group has been moving up lately, and the $SOX chart is looking good with room to run.

MKSI made my screen today.
http://tinyurl.com/ytejds

Screen hits on 2/23:
DTAS, IO, ALO, MKSI, AEIS, HLEX, RADS, RNO, SPAR, USAP, DWSN

[stenzrob]

Bought CRDN at $56.55 on 12/5/06. It peaked at $62 after raising guidance, and really looked like it was off to the races. Then it was downgraded by FBR. Bottomed under $52, and FBR switched their call, again, as I noted earlier. As of today, my position is back in the green, ever so slightly. Earnings report is Mon 2/26 pre-open. Could be interesting, since the short position is still pretty large at over 20% of the float.
regards ... stenz
CRDN reports Monday before the market open.
They have a history of beating estimates.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Page=EarningsSurprise&Symbol=CRDN

[stenzrob]

CRDN reports Monday before the market open.
They have a history of beating estimates.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/invsub/analyst/earnest.asp?Page=EarningsSurprise&Symbol=CRDN
They have done it again. Blew away estimates yet again. Huge backlog, and good progress on diversifying into other areas. Moving up in premarket. This could get fun.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070226/earns_ceradyne.html

[stenzrob]

They have done it again. Blew away estimates yet again. Huge backlog, and good progress on diversifying into other areas. Moving up in premarket. This could get fun.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070226/earns_ceradyne.html
Incredible. CRDN blew away estimates, raised guidance during the CC, and yet the shorts have been attacking it since the gap-up at the open.

I am looking at CRY. No, I'm not going to cry about CRDN, it's another stock ticker.

[stenzrob]

I'm selling some stuff, loss or not. Market hits like this do not recover quickly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99148755185

Sold BLUD at 29.25 for 10% loss, CRDN at 51.80 for 8% loss, PTEN at 21.86 for 21% loss, and SIM at 11.20 for 23% loss.

Holding TSRA, AEIS, and MKSI ... for now.

[Websman]

I'm selling some stuff, loss or not. Market hits like this do not recover quickly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99148755185

Sold BLUD at 29.25 for 10% loss, CRDN at 51.80 for 8% loss, PTEN at 21.86 for 21% loss, and SIM at 11.20 for 23% loss.

Holding TSRA, AEIS, and MKSI ... for now.

I'm 100% cash for now. I won't do anything but day trade in a market like this.

[stenzrob]

I'm selling some stuff, loss or not. Market hits like this do not recover quickly.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99148755185

Sold BLUD at 29.25 for 10% loss, CRDN at 51.80 for 8% loss, PTEN at 21.86 for 21% loss, and SIM at 11.20 for 23% loss.

Holding TSRA, AEIS, and MKSI ... for now.
Sold the MKSI today at 23.36. Now at 90% cash.
Basically just waiting now for a bit of a bounce to unload the last two, no hurry. Looking over the ETF ultrashort funds like QID and SSG, may buy one of those. I think the nasdaq is headed to around 2200.

[Websman]

Sold the MKSI today at 23.36. Now at 90% cash.
Basically just waiting now for a bit of a bounce to unload the last two, no hurry. Looking over the ETF ultrashort funds like QID and SSG, may buy one of those. I think the nasdaq is headed to around 2200.

Cash is the only way to go. Shorting may soon be a very profitable strategy.

[stenzrob]

Agreed, webs. This is the way I see it.

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/9777/nasdaqcorrectionkx4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[Websman]

Great chart Stenz.

I say, why fight it. I'm already looking for short canidates.

[stenzrob]

Great chart Stenz.

I say, why fight it. I'm already looking for short canidates.
Thanks webs. And thanks to various folks here for turning me on to imageshack and giving instructions on how to post images. I know it's probably a stupid place to do this, but I also just started blogging a bit on myspace, where I also exchange quips with my son and his friends.
http://profile.myspace.com/jbowbee

[Websman]

I'll check it out!

[stenzrob]

Surprised to see a bit of a bounce in the SOX this morning. Took the opportunity to unload the remainder of my positions. Sold AEIS for $19.40 and a 4.4% loss, and TSRA for $39.05 and a miniscule 1.5% gain. TSRA was my only net positive bailout this week, from a just buy below $38.50 back on 1/29.

Now at 100% cash and pondering my alternatives. Sit and wait, or try one of those ultrashort ETF's. (Most of my play money is in an IRA, so I cannot short directly. Checking with Schwab to see if I can go long on a short fund with it.)

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

I have to play this the way I see it, and not by just sitting on the sidelines. Accordingly, I just bought some shares of QID at 56.90. For those who may not already know, QID is an "ultrashort" ETF that aims to inverse track 2x the QQQ (nasdaq 100).

According to the chart I posted above, the nasdaq is likely to fall at least another 10% over the next two to three months before reversing. If that happens, this would produce a gain of about 20% in QID. This is the first time I've tried this - we'll see how it goes. I considered SSG, 2xInverse of sox, but trading volume in that ETF is quite low. ProShares has a variety of ultrashort ETF's.

In previous market corrections, I have either stubbornly held my positions because I refused to believe the market could drag down the stocks of fundamentally sound and/or undervalued companies (wrong, stupid), or I would sell most or all and invariably jump back in prematurely after a bit of a decline. By holding a position on the short side, I can alter my psychology and join websman in reveling in the misfortune of others. As long as QID advances, I may feel no urgency about getting back in on the long side.

[stenzrob]

I am still short the market via the QID ultrashort ETF, still believing there's more to fall. Today, the markets opened higher, but hit resistance and volume was lower than the last several days. Volume picked up later in the day - as the day's gains were cut in half.

[stenzrob]

Volume running higher again today - on a down day. Just the kind of action that my market short position likes!

Having bought QID at about $56.90, I am still in the red, but the trend still looks right.

[stenzrob]

http://www.nj.com/news/ledger/index.ssf?/base/news-11/117350706462280.xml&coll=1

The family attends my church, two daughters quite often dropped off for Sunday School by the limo. If you google the name; in addition to articles like this one, and about SEC actions, you find various charitable and political contributions and boards of charitable "society-type" organizations, like the Philadelphia Youth Orchestra. A real wheeler-dealer player, until recently.

[stenzrob]

Yesterday looked like the beginning of a new rally attempt, but if you follow the handful of intraday updates that include relative volume (available online at a well known but her unnamed site), the volume was running much higher as the indices dove, then lightened up considerably as they bounced and ended higher. The market still looks like it's just waiting for any excuse to selloff again to me, so I will remain in my ultrashort position for now.

I noticed that Doug also pointed out last night that "If the technicals are right this will not be a pretty picture over the next week.". I agree.

regards .. stenz

[stenzrob]

... The market still looks like it's just waiting for any excuse to selloff again to me, so I will remain in my ultrashort position for now. ...
OOPS.
Market liked fed inaction and virtually no change in bias?

[stenzrob]

Bad news in housing well received by my QID ultrashort position. This could still payoff. In the meantime, I took a long position in DRAX last Thursday 3/22 at $6.18. It's in the green right now, and has been upgraded and/or had price targets raised by two analysts since then after their analyst and investor day that day.

These are my only positions right now.

[peanuts]

Bad news in housing well received by my QID ultrashort position. This could still payoff. In the meantime, I took a long position in DRAX last Thursday 3/22 at $6.18. It's in the green right now, and has been upgraded and/or had price targets raised by two analysts since then after their analyst and investor day that day.

These are my only positions right now.

Funny. They both started heading down right after you posted this.

Karma has a way of revealing itself in occasionally humorous irony

[stenzrob]

Karma has a way of revealing itself in occasionally humorous ironytouche, peanuts!

[stenzrob]

Bad news in housing well received by my QID ultrashort position. This could still payoff. In the meantime, I took a long position in DRAX last Thursday 3/22 at $6.18. It's in the green right now, and has been upgraded and/or had price targets raised by two analysts since then after their analyst and investor day that day.

These are my only positions right now.
Sold the DRAX for $6.28 for a negligible gain.
I'll see if I can pick it up cheaper on a pullback.

[stenzrob]

I've been following QID and SDS, ultrashort ETF's for nasdaq 100 and S&P 500. They did not perform as well today as they should have, and I noticed that there was about a 0.5% jump in both of these at a time when there was no correlating jump in the indexes that they (inversely) track, right at the beginning of the day. Here are two day one-minute charts.

Over two days, the nasdaq has fallen about 0.6%, but the QID is not anywhere near +1.2%, in fact it's down. There's a funny blip there between yesterday and today, but what really killed the short term performance of QID is that the nasdaq dropped about 0.25% right at the open, and QID just picked up from where it finished yesterday, which was down 0.75% while the nasdaq was flat for the day. SO, my QID dropped when the nasdaq was flat, and way underperformed what it's supposed to do today with the nasdaq down.
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/6297/qidvsnasdaqed9.jpg

Likewise, over two days, the S&P500 is down about 0.5%, but SDS is not anywhere near +1.0%.
http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/707/sdsvssp500tn9.jpg

Of course, the prospectus says that the use of derivatives, increased volatility, blah, blah, blah, => we don't guarantee anything. But still, I'm a little disappointed that a pretty bad day in the markets doesn't get me the gains it should in these ETF's.

I wouldn't pay this much attention to them if I didn't have a position, so it's been an interesting experiment in inverse market timing, but I probably won't be doing this again.

[riverbabe]

I knew I read something about QID today, so went back and found it:

"The ProShares Ultra Short QQQ (QID - commentary - Cramer's Take) trades inversely to the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on a 2:1 ratio. This ETF has been trading in a sideways channel from late November through February. But the late-February breakout did not follow through. Instead, it fell back into the trading channel. However, the last couple of days of strength might mark the end of the pullback. If you're long, try setting a tight stop on this."

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/7197/qidib2.png

[stenzrob]

Thanks river. I'm really not sure what to read into volume variations in this, since as I understand it, the performance is supposed to be independent of activity in the shares. Rather than watch technicals for the ETF itself, I think it's better to study the technicals for the index it (inverely) tracks while standing on my head. Or, while doing this:
http://img252.imageshack.us/img252/250/apolloinversiontableys0.jpg
By the way, this is not me - my chest is hairier but less lumpy.

[IIC]

My take:

The Ultra's such as QLD and QID "Attempt" to match 2x the Naz 100 using sophisticated methods that I never bothered to try to figure out...But and this is a BIG but...Unlike the Naz 100 which merely reflects a weighted move of all the 100 stocks, the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves...Sentiment can play a part in interest either way on these.

Take a look at the Ultra ETF's that have not developed much volume yet...they can be way off.

And actually I have seen many times intraday where both the QLD and QID are both red or green.

I believe that if all goes well at Proshares you will see that the QID and QLD will be real close to 2x over the intermediate and longer terms.

Take a look at this chart...looks pretty close to me:

http://img488.imageshack.us/img488/714/scep0.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

Unfortunately...I'm real busy right now, but I took a quick comparison view of the charts from July 17th through today:

Naz 100 +21%

QID -31%

QLD +32%

So, it appears that the movement has only been 1.5x instead of the targeted 2x. However, I believe the charts I was looking at do not take into account the $5.00+ QLD distribution made in December...If they don't then QLD is actually up closer to 40%.

[stenzrob]

Unfortunately...I'm real busy right now, but I took a quick comparison view of the charts from July 17th through today:

Naz 100 +21%

QID -31%

QLD +32%

So, it appears that the movement has only been 1.5x instead of the targeted 2x. However, I believe the charts I was looking at do not take into account the $5.00+ QLD distribution made in December...If they don't then QLD is actually up closer to 40%.I'm seeing about 1.5X over that time period as well.

I'm curious, though, about what you said earlier that "the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves". Are you saying that if there is demand for QID, for example, this will force up the price of QID, regardless of whether the index that it's designed to mirror moves?

[IIC]

I'm seeing about 1.5X over that time period as well.

I'm curious, though, about what you said earlier that "the real mover on these types have to do with supply and demand of the ETF's themselves". Are you saying that if there is demand for QID, for example, this will force up the price of QID, regardless of whether the index that it's designed to mirror moves?

Yes...exactly...if nobody wants to buy the shares then the price either goes down or if the sellers won't budge, it doesn't trade. Mirroring is only a goal. Same thing for the Q's themselves, although the Q's fund is much simpler...I've seen the Q's green and the Naz 100 red or vice-versa periodically but over the long run they are very close.

Let's take The RUT and its ETF (non-ultra) tracker, IWM. Today the RUT was down .81% but IWM was only down .49%. Over 3 years the RUT is up a little more %-wise than IWM. Happens a lot...especially when you see the bid/ask on a lo vol ETF like SDD...and they are not close to the last trade...sometimes you have a rather long wait.

As far as me...I've only been trading QLD and QID since October...have not traded the other Ultras but I watch some of 'em.

[IIC]

Right now QID is 3x the inverse NDX ...Could sentiment be negative?

[peanuts]

I mistakenly thought you were once an owner of some FTK stock, so that's why I brought it up. It was the ticker resemblance to FTEK that got me. It might be rolling over, or might be breaking out to new highs. I guess time will tell.

It's not a bad company, though. I do own a few shares that I picked up recently. I'm thinking of switching the funds to DWSN if the breakout doesn't happen with FTK. But even if it does, I wouldn't mind owning some DWSN on a bigger pullback, either.

Hey Stenz,

Two winnas in one post! How's that for luck?

My TA view on FTEK looks like this is a great place for an entry at $22:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/charts/big.chart?symb=ftek&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=5&maval=20%2C50&uf=0&lf=268435456&lf2=2&lf3=4&type=4&size=3&state=8&sid=7005&style=330&time=7&freq=1&comp=NO%5FSYMBOL%5FCHOSEN&nosettings=1&rand=3170&mocktick=1

[peanuts]

didja get the FTEK at $22?

I see FTK is exploding today, and DWSN is hanging in there as well.

[stenzrob]

My adventure in the inverse fund was interesting. I was short the market during one of the best few months of all time. Bailed out of that a little while ago and have been dabbling in a few small companies.

I bought some AEIS this morning. Had owned this earlier, and sold at a slight loss to buy the QID inverse index after 2/27 when it looked like the china syndrome would cause a meltdown.

Just before noon today, there was a Forbes article posted that mentions AEIS.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/06/01/movil-transocean-energy-pf-ii-in_mr_0601watch_inl.html?partner=yahootix

"Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts (http://www.newsletters.forbes.com/servlet/ControllerServlet?Action=DisplayPage&Locale=en_US&id=ProductDetailsPage&SiteID=es_764&productID=10293700&OfferID=1400609&pgm=101000), says that if you want to beat the market for the rest of 2007, Advanced Energy Industries (nasdaq: AEIS (http://finapps.forbes.com/finapps/jsp/finance/compinfo/CIAtAGlance.jsp?tkr=AEIS) - news (http://www.forbes.com/markets/company_news.jhtml?ticker=AEIS)- people (http://www.forbes.com/peopletracker/results.jhtml?startRow=0&name=&ticker=AEIS)) is his favorite pick. Advanced Energy has got a hand in several tech trends. The Fort Collins, Colo., company's power conversion and control systems wire flat-panel displays, solar cells and semiconductors. Analysts are looking for 20.3% annual long-term earnings growth, and Advanced Energy stock trades for just 12.4 times trailing earnings.

"He says a key profit driver is that the company's been lowering costs by moving its production to China; it recently announced that it would shutter a German facility to shift even more to the Far East. Moroney, who picks investments with a proprietary "Quadrix" system that ranks stocks based on growth, value and momentum, also notes that the company trades at a 12% discount on forward earnings to the rest of the semiconductor industry. "

[stenzrob]

Just bought some VDSI again, also, at $23.09.
It seems to be breaking out yet again.

[stenzrob]

Bought some BLUD as it started to move this morning, then saw that the FDA approved their new device.

Also bought into SCLD again. Their last quarters report showed on track with turnaround plan under new management, and today they announced a new secure server for blackberry mail. At current prices, it's selling for less than revenue.

[stenzrob]

... bought into SCLD again. Their last quarters report showed on track with turnaround plan under new management, and today they announced a new secure server for blackberry mail. At current prices, it's selling for less than revenue.
This has worked out well so far.

[stenzrob]

...Also bought into SCLD again.
Something's going on here.
Don't know what, exactly, but I like it.

[stenzrob]

I was holding VDSI, BLUD and AEIS as they all reported recently.
AEIS disappointed, but the other two did nicely enough.

I shoulda' dumped AEIS as soon as they reported, finally got around to it today.

Plan to hold the other two for at least another quarter. Also still holding SCLD.

[stenzrob]

I was holding VDSI, BLUD and AEIS as they all reported recently.
AEIS disappointed, but the other two did nicely enough.

I shoulda' dumped AEIS as soon as they reported, finally got around to it today.

Plan to hold the other two for at least another quarter. Also still holding SCLD.
Sometimes it's best to just stop the bleeding. When I sold AEIS on 7/31, it was for a 28% loss at $17.82. Since then, it's down another $2.00, or a bit more than 10% from where I dumped it. I get the tax writeoff on my loss, and if I feel like it after 30 days, I should still be able to pick it up for less than I sold.

VDSI and BLUD are both up about 10% since then, and SCLD still has the potential to take off again.

[stenzrob]

I love VDSI.

[Nummerkins]

I love VDSI.

Same here. Sold today for a 17.1% gain. I exceeded my 15% target so I cashed out. I'm sure it had more growth potential as it was breaking the 52-week high for the better part of the day and they seem to be snapping up bank customers left and right. There's always money to be made elsewhere :)

[stenzrob]

Same here. Sold today for a 17.1% gain. I exceeded my 15% target so I cashed out. I'm sure it had more growth potential as it was breaking the 52-week high for the better part of the day and they seem to be snapping up bank customers left and right. There's always money to be made elsewhere :)
I keep learning the same lesson over and over about letting winners run. I first bought VDSI back in Dec 2006 at $12.00. Sold that in January 2007 at $14.35, a 19.5% gain. Bought again on June 1 for $23.09, having missed quite a bit of the run, and am currently up just over 34%. If I had just held the original position, I would be up 158%. When I sold, there was no good reason to, other than that there was money to be made elsewhere. Some of those "elsewhere's" worked out for me, some not so much.

[Nummerkins]

And I've just had my first lesson in this. Before I read your reply I re-purchased this morning and I'm up 1.5%, but I missed out on close to 4% simply because I sold.

[stenzrob]

Sold BLUD today for about a 7% gain.
It just looks like it's run out of steam.

[peanuts]

I keep learning the same lesson over and over about letting winners run.... If I had just held the original position, I would be up 158%. When I sold, there was no good reason to, other than that there was money to be made elsewhere. Some of those "elsewhere's" worked out for me, some not so much.

Sold BLUD today for about a 7% gain.
It just looks like it's run out of steam.

Nice trade! What's next? I kinda liked your BLUD long position.... I was envious of your entry and told myself that it might be worth a shot. Just my thought, but it might still have some steam to rise at least to the old highs if can't make a new one.

What do you think of HANS?

[stenzrob]

Nice trade! What's next? I kinda liked your BLUD long position.... I was envious of your entry and told myself that it might be worth a shot. Just my thought, but it might still have some steam to rise at least to the old highs if can't make a new one.

What do you think of HANS?
HANS looks good, peanuts. Not ridiculously overvalued, and nearing a high after a year of basing.

BLUD was starting to look like a head and shoulders to me. It just hasn't followed through well after that recent jump. What's next? I'm not sure yet, gonna' have to run through some screens and such. I am still holding VDSI and SCLD.

[stenzrob]

Sold my VDSI position today at $31.40.
The VDSI chart looks like a climax peak, just as the market is getting really volatile. Now I'm only holding SCLD and $cash.

[stenzrob]

Sold my VDSI position today at $31.40.
The VDSI chart looks like a climax peak, just as the market is getting really volatile. Now I'm only holding SCLD and $cash.Well, in hindsight, 8/9 seems like a good day to have gone mostly to cash.

VDSI, sold at $31.40, is now down to $27.45. <-12.6%>
It's nice to do something right every now and thin.

This partially makes up for my misadventure with QID back in late February. As panicy as the market looks right now, I have no intention of betting against it again via an inverse fund like QID.

[stenzrob]

Well, in hindsight, 8/9 seems like a good day to have gone mostly to cash.

VDSI, sold at $31.40, is now down to $27.45. <-12.6%>
It's nice to do something right every now and thin.

This partially makes up for my misadventure with QID back in late February. As panicy as the market looks right now, I have no intention of betting against it again via an inverse fund like QID.
Couldn't resist. Got a piece of VDSI back at $26.15.
Either it will bounce off the 50 day, or it won't.

[stenzrob]

Couldn't resist. Got a piece of VDSI back at $26.15.
Either it will bounce off the 50 day, or it won't.
Back out at $27. Pocket change.

[stenzrob]

Bought some OMCL today at $24.30.

[stenzrob]

Bought some AOB today at $9.40.

[stenzrob]

Bought some OMCL today at $24.30.
Executed a few small flips on OMCL the last few days, selling at $24.55 on Tuesday, buying it back again at $24.24 on Wednesday, and sold again today at $24.49. I was bored.

The difference is enough to cover commissions plus the short term cap gains tax, and I sometimes get back in just a smidge cheaper.

Each in/out trade has been for only 1%. But, the original buy was at $24.30, and it closed today at $24.36 (+0.25%). Meanwhile, my two trades have netted +2%.

[stenzrob]

Executed a few small flips on OMCL the last few days, selling at $24.55 on Tuesday, buying it back again at $24.24 on Wednesday, and sold again today at $24.49. I was bored.

The difference is enough to cover commissions plus the short term cap gains tax, and I sometimes get back in just a smidge cheaper.

Each in/out trade has been for only 1%. But, the original buy was at $24.30, and it closed today at $24.36 (+0.25%). Meanwhile, my two trades have netted +2%.Back in again on Friday at $24.04. While I am quite happy to keep netting some little gains and reduce my purchase price, I am also expecting (hoping?) this one to make a move up sometime soon, and I don't want to be out of it when it does. The chart looks good for a nice move up, IMHO.

[stenzrob]

Back in again on Friday at $24.04. While I am quite happy to keep netting some little gains and reduce my purchase price, I am also expecting (hoping?) this one to make a move up sometime soon, and I don't want to be out of it when it does. The chart looks good for a nice move up, IMHO.And right back out again at $24.95. Another short term 3.79% gain.

The problem with trading a stock that appears to be in a trading range is that if I buy near the bottom of the range and sell near the top of the range, then I could be caught out of the stock when it finally breaks to the upside (not too bad), or stuck in it if it breaks to the downside (undesirable). On the other hand, I have made between 5 and 6% gain on this one stock while it has, so far, gone up less than half of that since my original buy.

[stenzrob]

I may have outclevered myself on OMCL, just as described in the prior post. I sold at the top of the range just as it was breaking out of the range. Waiting to see if it will settle back down again.

In the meantime, picked up some of an old holding again - PTEN. This one always looked undervalued to me, and oilfield service is picking up again. Chart looks like a nice recovery pattern, with some heavy volume in the turnaround. Bought this at $22.90 today.

Also sold DRAX today for a small profit. At the end of the day, it ran up to $5.30 and I sold it at $5.29. A little more than 1% gain from my buy at $5.23.

Also sold AOB today. It looked like it was going to take a bit of a rest, so I was out at $10.29. That was about a 9.5% gain in about a week.

That leaves me with only PTEN (the resurgent oilfield service) and SCLD (dark horse).

Why was I so quick to sell and take profits today? ... For such a big gain, volume was low on the exchanges. Despite such a big gain for the day, most of the indexes are coming up to their 50 day averages. It's at least as likely as not that the indexes (and most stocks) will be down tomorrow, and I might have an opportunity to reload the same stocks again for less.

[stenzrob]

...sold AOB today. It looked like it was going to take a bit of a rest, so I was out at $10.29. That was about a 9.5% gain in about a week.Back into AOB at $10.13. PEG is 0.32, ROE over 20%. Stocks that I find like this I often mess up on the timing, but can go on to post very large gains.

[stenzrob]

Into BLUD again today at $35.60.
Does this look like a cup/handle to anyone?

[skiracer]

Into BLUD again today at $35.60.
Does this look like a cup/handle to anyone?

only in answer to your question regarding is this a cup and handle pattern. definitely fits the shape and look of a double bottom cup. I think it should be longer in length in forming the cup from side to side. a minimum of 8-10 weeks duration in forming the cup. the handle should be much more gradual and gently sloping downward rather than as steep a slope and the best case scenario would be to slope gently downward on diminishing or lessening volume. the reliability of the pattern performing as it should percentage wise relys mainly on how close it is to the definition of what compromises a cup and handle pattern by some acknowledgeable source. everyone has their own opinions and some work and others don't. there is a mathematical percentage of times that it should breakout if it fits the true definition. if you play percentages, like lefties will be more successful against right handed pitchers or visa versa or 60% of all walked batters will eventually score, then you will appreciate the percentage of reliability when it fits the true definition.

http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/7048/bludto5.png (http://imageshack.us)

[IIC]

BLUD...Is it a CwH? Well, if you want Ski's "Acknowledgeable Source" Definition....NO it is not....Although if it breaks out I wouldn't be surprised to see them claim it b/o from a CwH.

You want the Mr. Breakout opinion...YES it is.

Geez...I would sure like to know what the percentage of breakouts is from the Acknowledgeable Source....In all my years of following this pattern (Over 35) I've never seen the percentage of breakouts number.

[skiracer]

BLUD...Is it a CwH? Well, if you want Ski's "Acknowledgeable Source" Definition....NO it is not....Although if it breaks out I wouldn't be surprised to see them claim it b/o from a CwH.

You want the Mr. Breakout opinion...YES it is.

Geez...I would sure like to know what the percentage of breakouts is from the Acknowledgeable Source....In all my years of following this pattern (Over 35) I've never seen the percentage of breakouts number.

i think if you take a look at Bulkowski's book on chart patterns he gives a percentage rating for every type of chart pattern he defines. i'm pretty sure that cup and handle patterns are included in there as are numerous other patterns that are either bullish or bearish. his explanation is that if the chart pattern in question performs close to what he describes as reliable or close to what he feels is correct then the percentage he quotes is quite reliable. but the patterns have to be close to what he defines. I consider Bulkowski a reliable source. I don't consider you or your definition of what you describe as a cup and handle formation reliable for trading purposes. Bulkowski has monitored thousands of charts and recurring patterns and has written a book, which many consider the defining source for chart patterns, that goes into great depth describing what he has found to be patterns that will perform a specific way a reliable percentage of the time. but you already know that.
i really have no problem with you or anyone else adjusting what has been accepted as the true definition of any specific pattern to suit their plan or strategy. i guess if they work for you and everyone who listens to your take and uses those parameters then the proof is in the success of the trades. it is as simple as that. i find it suprising how many people will accept what you post here as the definition of the pattern because that is as far as they go. they're either lazy or don't know how to look for other info. i think there should always be two sides to look at regarding any of this.

[stenzrob]

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

[IIC]

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

The reason that jumped right out at me that it was not a "Classic" is that the "acknowlegeables" say the handle should be at least 5 days

[stenzrob]

The reason that jumped right out at me that it was not a "Classic" is that the "acknowlegeables" say the handle should be at least 5 days
No time to annotate a chart right now, but I was looking at the cup from 4/16/07 to 9/13-14/07, and handle 9/14 to 9/20.

[stenzrob]

Sold my VDSI position today at $31.40.
The VDSI chart looks like a climax peak, just as the market is getting really volatile.
I would like to thank the analyst who downgraded VDSI, since after my uncharacteristically timely decision to sell ... it came back, broke out and appeared to be running away without me.

[skiracer]

Thanks very much ski and doug, for your observations on BLUD.

In any case, today sees it with a slight gap open, setting new all-time highs and trading close to average daily volume in the first ten minutes of trading. I would call this a breakout.

that's all that counts Stenz. hope it holds the move and good luck with the trade.

[IIC]

I would like to thank the analyst who downgraded VDSI, since after my uncharacteristically timely decision to sell ... it came back, broke out and appeared to be running away without me.


Don't feel too bad...I sold JRJC for pocket change last week

[stenzrob]

Don't feel too bad...I sold JRJC for pocket change last week
I sold DECK for a LOSS at $20 in October 2005.
Doh!

[billyjoe]

I sold DECK for a LOSS at $20 in October 2005.
Doh!

Oh Yea? Well I sold PCU at 60 , CME at 193 , and GOOG at 290 all in the same year.

----------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Oh Yea? Well I sold PCU at 60 , CME at 193 , and GOOG at 290 all in the same year.

----------billyjoe
Somebody was looking a while back for a losers thread ... looks like this is it!

[jiesen]

I sold DECK for a LOSS at $20 in October 2005.
Doh!

I sold VDSI for about $3.

DOH!

[billyjoe]

I worked all my life to make my first billion only to find you need 1.3 billion to make the Forbes list.

----------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Post-sell returns

DECK: 110/20 = 5.50
PCU: 120/60 = 2.00
CME: 545/193 = 2.82
GOOG: 560/290 = 1.93
VDSI: 35/3 = 11.67
JRJC: 23/14 = 1.64

I think we all deserve special LOSER awards.

Stenz: Not only did this bonehead miss out on over 500% gain, but the gains started coming just after he bailed out for a loss.
Jiesen: In absolute terms, this approaches being the single biggest error in history. Up to 300% gains were missed in the first year alone, along with another quadruple opportunity passed up in the last 15 months.
Doug: Not so large a mistake in absolute terms, but if the math were extended to include the time factor, the idiocy of exiting just before explosive gains becomes clearer.
Billyjoe: No single statistic stands out here in terms of magnitude of blunder or in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, but Mr. Consistency seems to be making a habit out of stepping into the water just as the boat is leaving.

[skiracer]

the weekly looks better than the daily chart regarding a cup and handle formation. check out my thread for some info on cups and handles from Bulkowski.

http://img294.imageshack.us/img294/5624/bludoy2.png (http://imageshack.us)

[skiracer]

BLUD...Is it a CwH? Well, if you want Ski's "Acknowledgeable Source" Definition....NO it is not....Although if it breaks out I wouldn't be surprised to see them claim it b/o from a CwH.

You want the Mr. Breakout opinion...YES it is.

Geez...I would sure like to know what the percentage of breakouts is from the Acknowledgeable Source....In all my years of following this pattern (Over 35) I've never seen the percentage of breakouts number.


doug,

check out my thread for some percentages regarding cups with handles.

[stenzrob]

Into BLUD again today at $35.60.
Does this look like a cup/handle to anyone?
Was not seeing the kind of follow through I was looking for here. Exit at $36.04.

Also sold half of my SCLD position today at $1.33 (bought at $1.20 and $1.22).

So, still holding some AOB, a little bit of SCLD, and PTEN.

[stenzrob]

Was not seeing the kind of follow through I was looking for here. Exit (BLUD) at $36.04.Amazing luck. I saw the after hours bid in BLUD at $35.18, so just for the hell of it, I put in a buy for 100 shares at $35.20 before heading home for the night. Somebody filled it! So, I bought this at $35.60, sold for a small profit at $36.04 when the breakout didn't follow through, and had it handed back to me at $35.20. Sometimes the gods do smile down.

I also bought some WFR today at $61.70, not a great price intraday. This has been on my undervalued growth screen for quite a while, and I just hadn't gotten around to buying any. It was featured in the Saturday IBD, so this may help to move it off the 6+ month base it's been building.

[stenzrob]

Amazing luck. I saw the after hours bid in BLUD at $35.18, so just for the hell of it, I put in a buy for 100 shares at $35.20 before heading home for the night. Somebody filled it! So, I bought this at $35.60, sold for a small profit at $36.04 when the breakout didn't follow through, and had it handed back to me at $35.20. Sometimes the gods do smile down.Stopped out at $35.50. Enough for a meager gain, since the buy price was a gift.

[stenzrob]

Back into AOB at $10.13. PEG is 0.32, ROE over 20%. Stocks that I find like this I often mess up on the timing, but can go on to post very large gains.Stopped out of this, too, today at $10.95 for an 8% gain.

[stenzrob]

Sold PTEN today at $23.08 for a small gain (+0.8%).
Sold WFR today at $62.50, also for a small gain (+1.3%).

Now holding nuthin' but cash and a few thousand shares of SCLD.

[stenzrob]

Sold PTEN today at $23.08 for a small gain (+0.8%).
...

Got back in PTEN today at $22.72. This looks to be in an uptrend, and I'm just playing around a bit, trying to catch the tops and bottoms of the trend.

[stenzrob]

Also playing with WFR and BLUD in the same way. Taking profits and trying to get back in for less than I paid the previous time. If they run away from me, I do not chase ... like OMCL, where I took profits several times and then it took off without me.

[stenzrob]

Bought BLUD again for $35.09 at about the time I picked it in the POTW this afternoon.

They just announced record revenues and esrnings, and at 25 cents exceeded the 22 cent estimates.

Seems to be moving up a bit here in response after hours.

[stenzrob]

Also playing with WFR and BLUD in the same way.
WFR:
Bought 9/25 at $61.70, sold 10/2 at $62.50. (+1.3%)
Bought 10/3 at $61.75, sold 10/4 at $63.05. (+2.1%)

So far, so good, just hope it doesn't break out and run away like OMCL did.

I think I'll just hold the BLUD that I bought yesterday for $35.09 for a while.

[stenzrob]

Got back in PTEN today at $22.72. This looks to be in an uptrend, and I'm just playing around a bit, trying to catch the tops and bottoms of the trend.
Shoulda' just stayed out of this while I was ahead. NBR warning put the nail in this coffin, so I bailed out of PTEN today at $22.10 for a loss of 2.7%. Taking this thing off my list altogether. Also sold SCLD today at $1.38.

That leaves me with BLUD and a warchest. OK, so it's more of a skirmish chest. Will be looking for fresh blood to go with the BLUD.

[stenzrob]

Bought some EXAS at $4.06 this morning about the time I picked it for the POTW. It has run up nicely in the hour or so since then, so I entered a 5% trailing stop loss order (in real life, Rob/Peanuts won't let me do this for POTW).

As I type this, the trailing stop loss is at $4.33. So, I'm guaranteed about a 6.6% return.

I know very little about EXAS. I went to marketwatch at about 10:00, to the screen for new nasdaq highs, started going down the list and picked this one.

[IIC]

Bought some EXAS at $4.06 this morning about the time I picked it for the POTW. It has run up nicely in the hour or so since then, so I entered a 5% trailing stop loss order (in real life, Rob/Peanuts won't let me do this for POTW).

As I type this, the trailing stop loss is at $4.33. So, I'm guaranteed about a 6.6% return.

I know very little about EXAS. I went to marketwatch at about 10:00, to the screen for new nasdaq highs, started going down the list and picked this one.

You are probably safe...but there really are no guarantees

[stenzrob]

You are probably safe...but there really are no guaranteesStop is up to $4.46. Of course, it could halt, gap down, any number of things could go wrong. But as you know, I am "trading without fear", and sometimes also without a clue!

[stenzrob]

Stop was hit, executed at average $4.482.
Just over 10% gain in a few hours, that was fun.

[IIC]

Stop was hit, executed at average $4.482.
Just over 10% gain in a few hours, that was fun.



Nice one Stenz

[stenzrob]

Back into AOB again at $12.68 and WFR at $63.95.
It was a mistake to set myself up to get stopped out of these two.
Still also holding BLUD.

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG today, some at $8.17 and some at $8.00.
Showing some momentum in price and volume here, and a quick look shows they are expanding the business, with a low PEG.

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG today, some at $8.17 and some at $8.00.Another lucky pick here, and I don't want to lose all of it if it turns around and heads down while I'm not watching. Safety first. Entered a stop loss at $8.50, which would still be about a 4% gain. If it clear and holds $9.00, I'll change the stop to a trailing 5 or 6%. (This stop applies to the shares bought at $8.17)

[stenzrob]

Entered a stop loss at $8.50, which would still be about a 4% gain. Maybe I set it too tight - they took me out.

[stenzrob]

Maybe I set it too tight - they took me out.Must not have been too tight, dropped like a rock for a bit after this, along with just about everything else. Anyway, this position is back in at $7.82.

10/09 Buy $8.17
10/11 Sell $8.50 (+4%)
10/11 Buy $7.82

[stenzrob]

Stop was hit, executed at average $4.482.
Just over 10% gain in a few hours, that was fun.This was about EXAS, which appeared to be running away without me ... until this morning.

[stenzrob]

trading WATG
10/09 Buy $8.17
10/11 Sell $8.50 (+4%)
10/11 Buy $7.8210/18 Sell $8.23 (+5.2%)
Still holding, for now, another block bought at $8.00.

[stenzrob]

10/18 Sell $8.23 (+5.2%)
Still holding, for now, another block bought at $8.00.Sold the other block, too, at $8.23 for measly 2.9% gain. Hoping it will drop to $7.75 again to reload.

[stenzrob]

Back into AOB again at $12.68 and WFR at $63.95.
It was a mistake to set myself up to get stopped out of these two.
Still also holding BLUD.
Was just reviewing these long positions, again.

AOB's PEG is 0.4, ROE is over 20%, virtually no debt, trending up, highly rated by that daily newsthingy, and ... still about 11M shares short. Also worth noting large insider stake. The most volatile of the 3, but with the best chance of a short term (3 to 6 month) double.

BLUD PEG is 1.72, ROE is over 33%, no debt, trending up, also highly rated by IDK (I Don't Know), and ... about 4M shares short as of 9/11. Actually, this may have been reduced somewhat after the last report, when price popped on 4M shares traded. Blood testing; it's not trendy china something or alt energy, but it's moving in the right direction. According to some of the metrics I usually look at (PEG, P/S), it's not undervalued, but that won't matter as long as they keep growing. This will take longer to double.

WFR PEG is 0.62, ROE is over 43%, no debt, not trending anywhere, highly rated, but no significant short position. This should be moving better with solar stocks, but just isn't. Despite being undervalued IMHO, this would be the one that I am most likely to get annoyed eventually at the lack of price movement. Then, of course, it would jump.

[stenzrob]

Bought some AVAV today at $23.85.

Saw this when it spiked to a new high on 10/9 on news of a fast charge for electric vehicle demonstration. They have a steady revenue stream from unmanned aerial reconnaisance vehicles, and developed the fast charge technology for that application. ALTI also spiked on that news, but it's much more speculative. I'm thinking about trying to trade that one.

PEG is only 1.1, ROE is over 25%, no debt, and high insider ownership at about 45%. Motley Fool likes it, too: http://www.fool.com/investing/small-cap/2007/10/19/why-this-stock-is-a-winner.aspx

I'm expecting this to show up on the MM screens in about a year for having doubled but still reasonably valued.

[stenzrob]

... ALTI also spiked on that news, but it's much more speculative. I'm thinking about trying to trade that one.Bought some ALTI for $4.03.

[stenzrob]

Bought some ALTI for $4.03.
Nice luck here.
Just entered a trailing stop for 15 cents below.
With the stock at $4.50, the stop is currently at $4.35, which would still be an 8% gain.
If it spikes up and falls back, or just falls back, I'll be out of it.

[stenzrob]

Nice luck here.
Just entered a trailing stop for 15 cents below.
With the stock at $4.50, the stop is currently at $4.35, which would still be an 8% gain.
If it spikes up and falls back, or just falls back, I'll be out of it.
Just stopped out at $4.78, an 18.6% gain from my purchase at $4.03 last Friday.

[stenzrob]

Sold AOB and BLUD today, both for small profits.
Neither one seems to be doing much of anything, maybe the medical sector is not currently in favor.

So, I am left with positions in AVAV and WFR.
AVAV position is up about 4% from my buy at $23.85.
WFR position is down a few percent from my buy at $63.95.

Will be looking for some new short term positions.

[stenzrob]

... I am left with positions in AVAV and WFR.
AVAV position is up about 4% from my buy at $23.85.Sold AVAV this morning for $25.00 (+4.8% from last Friday).

My guess is that the market will get whacked today and it will be hard for anything to stay up, so I am playing it safe and completing my shuffle to the sidelines and see what opportunities arise. I really like AVAV, though, and will be looking to get back in again.

Still holding WFR for now.

[stenzrob]

Bought VOCS for $33.60.
Noticed it as a new high, waited for brief intraday pullback.

[stenzrob]

Bought VOCS for $33.60.
Noticed it as a new high, waited for brief intraday pullback.
This caught an updraft after I bought, so I set a 25 cent trailing stop.
Stop currently at $34.10, should be good for a minimum of a few percent gain, more if it keeps running. Just want to hit&run in this nasty market.

[stenzrob]

This caught an updraft after I bought, so I set a 25 cent trailing stop.
Stop currently at $34.10, should be good for a minimum of a few percent gain, more if it keeps running. Just want to hit&run in this nasty market.Already triggered the stop and executed at 34.194.

[stenzrob]

My small single position cash account is actually up 37.8%, including commissions, in the 2+ weeks since October 8 when I started trying this new daytrading thing where I just look at new highs moving on volume in the first hour, buy one of them and then set a trailing stop. This is a dangerous game, and possibly I need to work a bit on setting the trailing stop not so tight. Using this as my blog and review, what has happened?

10/8 buy EXAS $4.06
10/8 sell EXAS $4.46 (+9.85%)
This one eventually went to $6 on 10/16 before opening the next morning at $3.50 on some nasty news. Any reasonable trailing stop would have taken me out at a loss. It's now back at $4.25. A good reason not to ever hold overnight?

10/9 buy WATG $8.17
10/11 sell WATG $8.48 (+3.79%)
10/11 buy WATG $7.82
10/18 sell WATG $8.23 (+5.24%)
The trailing stop worked just right on the first exit, allowed the much lower second buy price. Got lucky to get the second exit, this was not a trailing stop, and took a week. This stock now appears to be dead again.

10/19 buy ALTI $4.03
10/23 sell ALTI 4.78 (+18.6%)
Half of my gains of the last few weeks came on this one. The new high (over $5) was actually back on 10/9, so the entrance was a bit delayed, but the trailing stop worked perfectly.

10/24 buy VOCS $33.60
10/24 sell VOCS $34.19 (+1.76%)
Missed a lot of the advance on this one. With a couple of glitchy intraday swings, almost any trailing stop designed to prevent a sudden big loss would have taken me out somewhere along the way. The only solution would have been to manually adjust a static stop, but that's not what I'm trying to accomplish.

If anyone is reading this, good luck trying to find a method that can actually be followed in any routine fashion, and thanks for stopping by!

[MEA_1956]

Trading Without Fear. But still using stops. A MAN with a plan, with hopes of conquering the world.

Ha Big Guy, Yours, is one of hte most important theards and most read, by me. Keep up hte good posts. Marlin

[stenzrob]

Thanks Marlin. Good to know someone finds this of any use, mostly it's psychotherapy for myself.

Bought NUVA this morning at $40.30.

[stenzrob]

Bought NUVA this morning at $40.30.50 cent trailing stop, currently above $40.75. I just hope this doesn't trigger too early again, but I can't watch it today. Que sera, sera.

[stenzrob]

Bought NUVA this morning at $40.30.Stop triggered, out at $41.6018. (+3.23%)

[stenzrob]

Bought some ALTI at $4.69.
Plan to hold for at least a few days, we'll see.

[stenzrob]

Back into ... WFR at $63.95.WFR report today after the bell looks good to me, and seems to be generating some after hours buying interest. I think this should run to $100 or so, but what I think means nothing, we'll see what the market thinks about this one.

[stenzrob]

WFR hitting $67 after-hours after closing at $59.34.
There's sure to be a pivot point around here somewhere.

[stenzrob]

Dodged bullet with BLUD investigation causing a hit.
WFR looks like a keeper.
Just bought ZRAN at $25.80.

[stenzrob]

Dodged bullet with BLUD investigation causing a hit.
WFR looks like a keeper.
Just bought ZRAN at $25.80.
I'm going to try to hold ZRAN for maybe a few days if it will cooperate. Still working out this new "new high momentum" strategy. Ideally, each position would be held for at least 3 days, and I'm targeting an average 2% per day gain. (It's good to have goals, regardless of how unrealistic!)

For this account on these kinds of trades, the most important thing for me is to not take a loss, especially once the position is up by a few percent. I'm willing to give away the few percent, but not at all interested in holding if it means the position goes negative after having been positive, no matter what I may think about the prospects for the stock going forward. (That kind of thing is a different strategy, and is the reason I held the WFR position while it was down for me by as much as 10% at some points) Obviously, I would certainly be interested in enjoying larger gains if it continues to run. That's why I'm trynig to get a trailing stop to work for me instead of guessing that the price has peaked, which I have done in the past just before it runs up even further.

So, I entered a stop limit for ZRAN at $25.95.
This should prevent a loss, unless it gaps down Monday morning.
Not using a trailing stop yet. I'd like to set a trailing stop at least 50 cents to prevent premature evacuation, but that wouldn't be enough right now to prevent a loss.

Since I started trying this new method a few weeks ago, I have been lucky enough to have every position run up enough shortly after buying it that I could set either a stop loss or trailing stop. It will be interesting to see what I do if the position starts to go down before having moved into safe territory yet. I really should think about that before it happens.

[stenzrob]

AAAARGH. At about 3:30, they brought the price down just far enough to trigger my stop limit. I had this set for a stop of 25.96, limit 25.95 - i.e. "if there is a transaction at 25.96, post a limit sell for 25.95". It was at 25.96 for such a short time that by the time the brokers computer placed a limit order for 25.95, it got executed at 26.04. Goshdarn it. I really wanted to hold onto this one, too.

[stenzrob]

Bought NTWK this morning for $4.29 about when I posted it as my POTW.

Still holding WFR from $63.95, now about +15%.
Still holding ALTI from $4.69, now about +7%.

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
ZRAN is #5 on my best stock list.

-------------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
ZRAN is #5 on my best stock list.

-------------billyjoeThanks billyjoe. I'm looking for a good opportunity to get back in it, possibly below $26. I figure if they can run it down under $26 to take out my stop, they can run it down there to let me back in. Seems fair enough to me.

So, where is your best stock list - I can only find your 10 under $10 list. And why is it on the list?

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
I don't publicize my best of list except for the under $10 , but since you asked, here's my top 25 in order: MOS SPWR VIP FLIR ZRAN MTL SCHN AXYS DECK SID STP KGC MBT DCO RIMM FCX BG MDG TQNT GGB IDP SLW EXPO NDAQ AAPL.

--------------billyjoe

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
ZRAN is on my list for many reasons.
1. Recent deals with Samsung, Sony, and SanDisk
2. Quarterly ROE up sharply
3. Income and sales growth
4. High gross and net profit margins
5. High institutional ownership
6. Increased future growth estimates (30%)
7. Growth to p/e ratio of 1.33
8. Volume increasing
9. High analyst ratings
10. Not known to be prone to long or large price declines
11. Well above 20,50,and 200 DMA
12. A bunch of technically positive short, medium, and long term indicators

-------------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Looks like AOB may be breaking out, so I bought some a few minutes ago at $13.25.

Holding NTWK from $4.29, now about +6%, 25 cent trailing stop currently at breakeven.
Holding WFR from $63.95, still about +15%, stop limit at $71.50 (+12%).
Holding ALTI from $4.69, now about +8.5%, stop limit at $4.93 (+5%).

[stenzrob]

ZRAN is on my list for many reasons.
-------------billyjoebillyjoe, Have you compared ZRAN to SIGM?

[stenzrob]

Into WATG again, at $8.75.

[stenzrob]

Looks like AOB may be breaking out, so I bought some a few minutes ago at $13.25.

Holding NTWK from $4.29, now about +6%, 25 cent trailing stop currently at breakeven.
Holding WFR from $63.95, still about +15%, stop limit at $71.50 (+12%).
Holding ALTI from $4.69, now about +8.5%, stop limit at $4.93 (+5%).Put in 30 cent trailing stop on AOB, currently at $13.63 (+2.9%).
I'm not greedy, my optimistic goal is to average 2% per day.
That would be 5000% in 200 trading days.

[billyjoe]

billyjoe, Have you compared ZRAN to SIGM?

Stenz,
SIGM somehow flew under my radar. I just ran the numbers and it's real good, awesome earnings, and would have finished at #24 just above NDAQ.

---------------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

I went to a meeting just before 3:00, and came back at 4:10 to find that stops had triggered to sell NTWK and AOB in my cash (+margin) account, and ALTI in the IRA. The IRA does not support trailing stops, that only works in my cash account.

NTWK: Buy on 10/29 at $4.29, sell on 10/30 at $4.36 (+1.6%)
AOB: Buy on 10/30 at $13.25, sell on 10/30 at $13.6533 (+3.0%)
ALTI: Buy on 10/25 at $4.69, sell on 10/30 at $4.94 (+5.3%)

Still holding WFR from $63.95, now about +14% at $72.97, stop set at $71.50
Still holding WATG from $8.75, now about +4.9% at $9.18, no stop set yet.

Gain in the cash account is now +45.9% since 10/8, 9 trades over 12 trading days, varying from +1% on ZRAN to +18.6% on ALTI.

I'm going to stop posting my trades, etc. now, unless something unusual happens to learn from.

[TNtrader]

I find your thread useful. Please don't stop posting your trades!

[stenzrob]

I find your thread useful. Please don't stop posting your trades!OK, I will continue, thanks for reading TNtrader.

The technique for now remains the same; Buy something that's moving up, hope like hell it moves high enough to allow setting a stop that prevents any loss. If it moves up enough, switch to a trailing stop that will automatically get me out when it reverses after topping out. It's working so far.

Tell me, have you made any trades on the stocks that I have posted? Made any trades on other stocks using this technique?

[TNtrader]

I sure have.

I bought WFR at $66.01 and am still holding. I also use trailing stops.

I appreciate the heads up on WFR and your willingness to continue posting your trades. My only other positions at this time are the following, in case you're interested.

Short PRXI at $14. The bottom fell out of this one!
Long QTM at an average cost of $3.76

Thanks again!

[stenzrob]

Bought LUNA for $7.24.

[Odysseus]

Yes please stenzrob, keep the posts coming. I'm trying to make just 5% a week and was doing great, but have made some sloppy errors since.

Only been at this since August and trying to narrow down my mistakes since I have so little to play with. I've been studying anything I can find, ChartSchool.com was great.

Currently going long with

VDSI
FRX

I lost big on VDSI and FRX, but am nearly breaking even with FRX finally. I was doing so well shorting YBTVA, WYNN, and CMC, now I've lost all my gains from these 2 stocks above.

[stenzrob]

Yes please stenzrob, keep the posts coming. I'm trying to make just 5% a week and was doing great, but have made some sloppy errors since.

Only been at this since August and trying to narrow down my mistakes since I have so little to play with. I've been studying anything I can find, ChartSchool.com was great.

Currently going long with

VDSI
FRX

I lost big on VDSI and FRX, but am nearly breaking even with FRX finally. I was doing so well shorting YBTVA, WYNN, and CMC, now I've lost all my gains from these 2 stocks above.I've only been doing this since early 2000, and still trying to figure out how the heck this stuff works. I think that in trading, you learn a little about the market and a little about yourself as well. I thought I would approach this as a patient investor ... but my attention span has been steadily decreasing. Having read about all the classic stupid mistakes, I found that I made pretty much every one, and it is a constant struggle to make myself not make them again and again. One thing that I think I may have learned (and how many places did I read this, and how many times did I do it anyway?!) is to not let a profit turn into a loss, or to even give up a significant piece of it. Hence, my newfound fascination with stop loss and trailing stops. I was stopped out of both WFR and WATG today, and both are now sitting above where I was thrown out of them. That does not bother me in the least. Stopped out of WATG for a small profit, and while it certainly looks now like it would have been better to hold, it could just as well have kept going the other way, leaving me sitting on a loss hoping for it to get back above water. I hate that feeling. Stopped out of WFR at 71.50 for an 11.8% gain.

The only position I still have now is the LUNA I bought this morning.

I did discover a downside to the daytrading ... my broker told me today that having made 4 daytrades in 5 days, I qualify as a pattern daytrader. Since the account does not have $25k, I may be restricted now to only buying with settled funds. Why it takes 3 days to settle a trade in this day and age, I don't know.

[IIC]

I've only been doing this since early 2000, and still trying to figure out how the heck this stuff works. I think that in trading, you learn a little about the market and a little about yourself as well. I thought I would approach this as a patient investor ... but my attention span has been steadily decreasing. Having read about all the classic stupid mistakes, I found that I made pretty much every one, and it is a constant struggle to make myself not make them again and again. One thing that I think I may have learned (and how many places did I read this, and how many times did I do it anyway?!) is to not let a profit turn into a loss, or to even give up a significant piece of it. Hence, my newfound fascination with stop loss and trailing stops. I was stopped out of both WFR and WATG today, and both are now sitting above where I was thrown out of them. That does not bother me in the least. Stopped out of WATG for a small profit, and while it certainly looks now like it would have been better to hold, it could just as well have kept going the other way, leaving me sitting on a loss hoping for it to get back above water. I hate that feeling. Stopped out of WFR at 71.50 for an 11.8% gain.

The only position I still have now is the LUNA I bought this morning.

I did discover a downside to the daytrading ... my broker told me today that having made 4 daytrades in 5 days, I qualify as a pattern daytrader. Since the account does not have $25k, I may be restricted now to only buying with settled funds. Why it takes 3 days to settle a trade in this day and age, I don't know.


I always read your thread Stenz.

As far as the number of trades...My cash account is not a problem...But we also have 3 separate tax accounts...keeping the 3 separate allows me more dt's per week in the tax accounts if necessary.

[IIC]

Yes please stenzrob, keep the posts coming. I'm trying to make just 5% a week and was doing great, but have made some sloppy errors since.

Only been at this since August and trying to narrow down my mistakes since I have so little to play with. I've been studying anything I can find, ChartSchool.com was great.

Currently going long with

VDSI
FRX

I lost big on VDSI and FRX, but am nearly breaking even with FRX finally. I was doing so well shorting YBTVA, WYNN, and CMC, now I've lost all my gains from these 2 stocks above.

First of all...WELCOME!!!

Second of all...I suggest that you lower your goals to a more realistic level. 5% a week compounded for 52 weeks is over 1100% a year.

I'm all for setting high goals...but that should be at least set at a level that might be attainable.

Best,

Doug(IIC)

[Odysseus]

First of all...WELCOME!!!

Second of all...I suggest that you lower your goals to a more realistic level. 5% a week compounded for 52 weeks is over 1100% a year.

I'm all for setting high goals...but that should be at least set at a level that might be attainable.

Best,

Doug(IIC)

Yeah, I've recently taken a step back and have made my first goal to try and learn more, and hope to make +% for the end of the year. Then I'd be happy. And my wife would not criticize my trying ;)

Thank you by the way, glad to be here. I've been searching the web for a stock forum that has good folks, who offer critiquing without the utter smackdowns I see a lot on the Yahoo message boards.

Stopped out of WATG for a small profit, and while it certainly looks now like it would have been better to hold, it could just as well have kept going the other way, leaving me sitting on a loss hoping for it to get back above water. I hate that feeling. Stopped out of WFR at 71.50 for an 11.8% gain.

Yeah stenzrob, I did the same thing with CMC. Just to show how green I am, CMC dropped to my stop loss of 12%. I had no idea that their Earning Report was the next day and was supposed to be a good report, supposedly. Along with the divident payout. Had I kept it, I would have easily made 20+% instead.

It was good that I took the profit, but.... :mad:

I have the discipline, just not the knowledge

[stenzrob]

Just to show how green I am, CMC dropped to my stop loss of 12%. I had no idea that their Earning Report was the next day and was supposed to be a good report, supposedly. Along with the divident payout. Had I kept it, I would have easily made 20+% instead.

It was good that I took the profit, but.... :mad:

I have the discipline, just not the knowledgeDiscipline is worth more than knowledge, IMHO. The market is filled with too much apparent irrationality for knowledge to be of much use, especially in the short term. If it is generally expected that an earnings report will be a good one, then the price may be bid up prior to the report, and then even one that exceeds the official estimates can be met with selling because it did not exceed by as much as was really expected, or because the guidance is fuzzy, or that as good as the results were, it is now believed that they can't keep up that pace, etc. etc.
CMC dropped to your stop loss and you acted on your discipline. Sure, looking back now, you could have made 20+%, but you could just as easily be sitting on a loss. I seek a balance between not letting selective hindsight get in the way of sticking to the discipline and learning from what has worked well or not in past trades.

Looking back over my recent stopped-out exits; EXAS, WATG, ALTI, ZRAN, NTWK, AVAV, AOB, and WFR are all lower now than where I was stopped out. Only VOCS and NUVA are slightly higher (but I made more money trading others than if I had held either or both). Could I have predicted which of these would continue up or reverse? I don't think so.

Where could I have made more money, sometimes significantly more, than when I sold? When I sold because I thought it wasn't going to go any higher. When have I lost big money in the past year? When I thought the stock (or QID) should come back. So I decided to stop thinking so much, other than to think about how best to not think. (LOL!) Lest I think too little of myself, my previous approach was profitable and beating the market, which I track. But, I continuously seek to learn how to do better. My initial goal was to have positive return and beat the market. 2000 was an interesting time to start trading. I had positive returns in 2002, and have beaten the market every year since then. So, it is time to adjust my goal. I'm still working on what it should be.

[stenzrob]

Bought SIGM $60.

[stenzrob]

Bought AVAV $24.06.

[stenzrob]

Bought ININ at $27.

[stenzrob]

Into AOB again at $12.65.

Current long positions:
LUNA $7.24 (-9.3% at $6.57)
AVAV $24.06 (+2.5% at $24.67)
ININ $27.00 (-0.7% at $26.82)
SIGM $60.00 (-0.3% at $59.80)
AOB $12.65

[stenzrob]

LUNA report after the close today looked good to me, I'm glad I have held this one through a bit of paper pain.

46% revenue growth, increasing gross margins, decreasing burn (loss).
Beat estimates/guidance by a small amount, and upped guidance for next quarter. This company IPO'd in June 2006 at $6, was down to half of that, then started announcing deals. Several large volume spikes and a nice run later, it finally passed the IPO price a few weeks ago, has tested that level and is now poised to make a run, I think. This stock is pretty volatile and a bit more thinly traded than I usually like, so I don't plan to use any auto stop.

LUNA has held up well over the last few days of market nastiness, and was up slightly in the after hours after the report.

[stenzrob]

This was not the reaction to LUNA's report that I was looking for.

[stenzrob]

nasdaq: 11/6=2825, 11/14=2678, (-5.2%)

Current/buy long positions:
LUNA 6.10/7.24 (-15.7%)
ININ 25.66/27.00 (-4.9%)
SIGM 59.28/60.00 (-1.2%)
AOB 12.20/12.65 (-3.6%)

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.

LUNA hasn't worked out, yet.
Not ready to take the loss, yet, either.

I have no stop loss orders entered for any of these.

[stenzrob]

AVAV trend
http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/5571/avav111407uc3.jpg

[New-born baby]

nasdaq: 11/6=2825, 11/14=2678, (-5.2%)

Current/buy long positions:
LUNA 6.10/7.24 (-15.7%)
ININ 25.66/27.00 (-4.9%)
SIGM 59.28/60.00 (-1.2%)
AOB 12.20/12.65 (-3.6%)

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.

LUNA hasn't worked out, yet.
Not ready to take the loss, yet, either.

I have no stop loss orders entered for any of these.

AOB has a target of $7.50.
LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50.
SIGM: a move above $60 points to $68.50; a move below $52.50 points to $45.00
ININ: targets $47.00

[stenzrob]

AOB has a target of $7.50.
LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50.
SIGM: a move above $60 points to $68.50; a move below $52.50 points to $45.00
ININ: targets $47.00Thanks newborn. Are these targets based on point&figure charts (which I simply do not understand), or what?
Clearly, some of your targets sound good to me, others not so good.

LUNA will spike on the next big news, if it doesn't just run away first due to mounting interest.

[New-born baby]

Thanks newborn. Are these targets based on point&figure charts (which I simply do not understand), or what?
Clearly, some of your targets sound good to me, others not so good.

LUNA will spike on the next big news, if it doesn't just run away first due to mounting interest.

targets based on Dow Theory and/or Point and Figure charts. Chas. Dow invented both, so they are not so very different, although they do sometimes differ in targets.

LUNA: what is this company about? And what is YOUR target for it? Nice move today, too. Congrats. I thought about buying some the other day at $5.05 but didn't. I like the chart . . . .

[New-born baby]

Here's a play for you:
SHORT the CAT at current price, $70.22
SELL the NOV $70 PUT for $0.70.
IF CAT is below $70 by Friday close, you make $92.
IF CAT is above $70 by Friday close, CAT still has target of $60.

[New-born baby]

RIMM looking vulnerable these days . . . .

[stenzrob]

LUNA: what is this company about? And what is YOUR target for it? Nice move today, too. Congrats. I thought about buying some the other day at $5.05 but didn't. I like the chart . . . .
LUNA is tied in close with developments at University of Virginia, their job is to commercialize technologies. They recently got FDA clearance for an ultrasound-based instrument that measures air bubbles and clots in the bypass line during cardio surgery, and have partnered with a bigger company to market and distribute. They also have an agreement with Intuitive Surgical to develop ultrasound-based navigation probes for ISRG's instruments. They have patents in nanotech also, I'm expecting an announcement about a partnership with some pharma biggie for an improved MRI contrast agent. They also have gov't r&d contracts. Their last qtr report highlights the fact that a rapidly growing percentage of their revenues are coming from product and license revenues, as opposed to gov't grants.

Each HUGE spike on the chart in the last 6 months correlates to an announcement or something - May=FDA clearance, June=ISRG deal, July=ISRG qtr report. After each spike, it settled back quite a bit. What I find interesting is that the advance on a bit more sustained volume in late October doesn't correlate to anything. Somebody has just been buying. It will be interesting to see institutional ownership as reported in January for the quarter ending 12/31.

With all the irons they have in the fire, any of which could hit bigtime, their price/sales at just over 2 is way too low. My target is somewhere around $20, but I'll see how things develop. If it spikes 35 to 50% on a press release, I'll jump out and look for another opportunity to get back in.

[stenzrob]

... LUNA is working on a symmetrical triangle. If it breaks above $7.10, targets $9.50. If if falls below $5.50, targets $3.50. ...Newborn, I hope you're right. $9.50 would be nice. LUNA broke above 7.10 this morning to new 52 wk high, finally getting the kind of response that it should to the qtr report from 11/8. Volume is looking pretty good for this time of day, too.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some CRDN at $42.10.

It has done nothing but go straight down for about a month now, from $75 to here. Volume today is particularly high, but the intraday showed some strong volume buying at the bottom. This suggests to me a combination of capitulation and institutions stepping in. Also, the company has announced today an update call for next week, the outline of topics all sounded positive - reiteration, and positive news on several fronts.

I have a mixed history with this stock.
Bought this on 12/20/05 for 43.75, and sold on 2/3/06 for 56.75. (+29.7%)
Bought again on 2/6/06 for 52.40, and sold on 7/6/06 for 54.63. (+4.3%)
Bought again on 7/19/06 for 49.00, and sold on 9/1/06 for 44.43. (-9.3%)
Bought again on 12/5/06 for 56.55, and sold on 3/1/07 for 51.80. (-8.4%)

Then I sat out of it while it ran to over $80 and back down almost to $40.

[stenzrob]

just sold LUNA at $7.98. (+10.2% from buy on 10/31)

Why?
Got in it for the momentum, sat through some underwater time, was lucky enough for it to move back up nicely. I was beginning to really like the company, etc. and to think about future potential ... in other words, I was falling in love with it, and that wasn't why I bought it.

[stenzrob]

Bought VDSI at $21.04.

50% cut on 2 cent miss is overdone, as a result it's had three analyst upgrades in the last 2 weeks.
It will be a long time before it gets back to $44, but from here it's not far to $25, which would be almost 20%.

I decided to stop using my 52 week high momentum method while the market is in correction and instead am looking at bargains, like CRDN and VDSI. Each has technical features that also may be signalling a reversal (or could just be a trap!).

[stenzrob]

Bought VDSI at $21.04.Sold this at $21.67 for a quick 3%. Just want to see if I can either get this back for less or find something else. The climb out of the hole may go more slowly than I would like.

[stenzrob]

AVAV trend
http://img240.imageshack.us/img240/5571/avav111407uc3.jpg
An update to this chart, if I had time to do one, would show AVAV back near the lower end of the declining channel. I'll wait a bit longer before giving it another shot.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some CRDN at $42.10.Had some good luck on this one so far. $42.10 is looking like pretty darn close to the bottom, I didn't catch a falling knife, I picked it up off the floor just after it stuck! At the current $50.80 price, my position here is up over 20%. Still holding for now, looking for at least $65.

[stenzrob]

Bought SIGM $60.Finally ... the report. I have sat through some underwater time on this one for almost a month. It had gotten down to $50 briefly, over 15% down for my position. But, it showed support there, reversed, climbed back to almost breakeven today. Then, it screamed upwards after hours today to $66 after their report and guidance. Now I have to recalculate value and decide whether to continue to hold it.

[stenzrob]

Sold CRDN at $50.75 , SIGM at $67.50 , ININ at $27.20

CRDN 50.75/42.10 = +20.5%
SIGM 67.50/60.00 = +12.5%
ININ 27.20/27.00 = +00.74%

Current long positions:
AOB 11.55/12.65 = -8.7%

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG at $8.87.

If the numbers on Yahoo are right, then the PEG is less than 0.5 and the ROE is over 29%.

Major new contract announced recently, and the announcement included some rough guidance for ~40% revenue growth in 2008, while the PE is less than 20 (hence the PEG under 0.5).

Plus, the chart looks good. The ideal case would have this flat through tomorrow, so that it doesn't help spike in the POTW contest :p , then break out and run starting Monday.

[stenzrob]

Sold AVAV today for $24.85 (+3.28%)
Still like the company, but the trend just does not look right.Put AVAV back in my portfolio again today at $23.40.
Bought on 11/1 for 24.06,
sold 11/14 for 24.85,
bought 11/28 for 23.40.

Seems like I do something with this one every two weeks, and so far, making a bit of spare change even while it is in a slight downtrend. If I had the patience, I wouldn't mind holding this one, but where's the fun in that?

[stenzrob]

Maybe I'm just seeing what I want to see.
AVAV reports next Tuesday after the close.

http://img409.imageshack.us/img409/3986/avav112807kf0.jpg

[stenzrob]

bought some SDTH for $8.22

[stenzrob]

Current positions:
WATG: 9.44/8.87 = +6.4% since 11/29/07
AVAV: 24.05/23.40 = +2.8% since 11/29/07
(both too thinly traded to use any stop)

SDTH: 8.16/8.22 = -0.7% since 11/30/07
AOB: 11.70/12.65 = -7.5% since 11/06/07
- 11/06 ?! I'm at risk of turning into a long term investor!

Price movement after some recent sales:
ININ: sold at 27.20 for +0.7% on 11/29, now at 26.12 (-4.0%) :)
SIGM: sold at 67.50 for +12.5% on 11/29, now at 65.07 (-3.6%) :)
CRDN: sold at 50.75 for +20.0% on 11/29, now at 49.44 (-2.6%) :)
VDSI: sold at 21.67 for +3.00% on 11/27, now at 22.44 (+3.6%) :(
LUNA: sold at 7.98 for +10.2% on 11/20, now at 9.13 (+14.4%) :( :(
- where's the darn LUNA pullback I wanted?
This stock may just take off and end up with me chasing after it.
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x76/stenzrob/DSC00535.jpg

[stenzrob]

just sold the WATG position for 9.70, +9.36% since last Thursday.

Taking another look at LUNA, which took a bit of a corrective dive today. Also looking again at NTWK, which I bought & sold as a momo play about a month ago, and seems to be making a new base.

For now though, only continuing to hold AVAV, AOB and SDTH.

[stenzrob]

bought some RGEN for $5.25

[stenzrob]

back into CRDN again at $48

[stenzrob]

bailed out of AVAV at 23.62 for a very slight gain.

The chart doesn't look all that great, the volume is low, and they report tonight and I'm not really all that confident about what they're going to say.

[New-born baby]

bailed out of AVAV at 23.62 for a very slight gain.

The chart doesn't look all that great, the volume is low, and they report tonight and I'm not really all that confident about what they're going to say.

You're a smart guy.

[stenzrob]

You're a smart guy.Thanks newborn. I've been lucky lately holding through earnings with several, including BLUD, WFR, and SIGM. I was pretty confident about each one. Better safe than sorry. I am "trading without fear", but not entirely "without a clue".

[stenzrob]

bought NTWK at $3.03
bought WATG again at $10.55
... both in the account where I'm not looking for quick turnaround gains

All funds currently back at work now.
CRDN, AOB, SDTH, WATG, NTWK in slow account where I focus more on on undervalued.
RGEN in the fast account for momos. No, I said momos.

In the "aw, shoot" column ... Several days ago, while the market was down, I was looking for fresh highs, noticed SOLF and considered buying it at $18, but wasn't quick enough and decided to wait for a pullback to buy. Snooze -> lose.

[stenzrob]

bought NTWK at $3.03Well, this is working out nicely so far.:)

[stenzrob]

SDTH is challenging highs today on decent volume.
Over $9 puts my position from $8.22 firmly in positive territory.

[stenzrob]

bought some RGEN for $5.25
This has gone in the right direction.
Just placed a 25 cent trailing stop order for this, which should be outside the normal volatility.
When entered, the stop is at $5.32, enough for over 1% gain.

Also entered stops for NTWK at $3.10 (+2.3% from my $3.03 buy yesterday) and SDTH at $8.60 (+4.6% from $8.22 buy on 11/30).
This account doesn't have the trailing stop feature, so I will have to adjust as needed.

Simply protecting profits.

[stenzrob]

SDTH stop triggered, and executed at $8.65.
Bought at $8.22 a week ago, +5.2%.

[stenzrob]

RGEN stop triggered, executed at $5.3703.
Bought at $5.25 on Tuesday, +2.3%.

[stenzrob]

Back into ININ again, at $27.50.

[stenzrob]

Back into ININ again, at $27.50.and some more ININ at $26.95.

[stenzrob]

SDTH stop triggered, and executed at $8.65.
Bought at $8.22 a week ago, +5.2%.
Well, this turns out to have been unfortunate.
Oh well ... as they say "you can't go broke taking profits".
Using stops has saved my bacon at least as many times as it has thrown me out of a position that then reverses and turns up, I think.

[stenzrob]

bought WATG again at $10.55
WATG took a hit this morning on news of a private placement of 10M newly issued shares, priced at $8.65. For the long term, I find it encouraging that some institution(s) are interested in investing a large chunk in WATG.

Note to self: Once you have hundreds of millions of dollars, don't buy stock on the open market, negotiate a deal to buy at a discount.:rolleyes:

[stenzrob]

Stops triggered by post-fed announcement market plunge.
CRDN at 48.45, for +0.9% gain since 12/4.
AOB at 11.65, for -7.9% loss since 11/6.
NTWK at 3.10, for +2.3% gain since 12/5.

Maybe the market will just rebound after the knee-jerk selloff, maybe not. I don't know and I'm not going to try to guess. Using the stops limits my downside in case it doesn't.

Leaves me holding only ININ and WATG, both currently in the red.

[stenzrob]

Pulled the plug on ININ today at $25.40, taking the 5.75% and 7.64% loss for the two positions from 27.50 and 26.95.

Only holding WATG now, mostly in cash.

The three that I got stopped out of yesterday are all lower right now than where I got thrown out, which is oddly comforting.

[skiracer]

Pulled the plug on ININ today at $25.40, taking the 5.75% and 7.64% loss for the two positions from 27.50 and 26.95.

Only holding WATG now, mostly in cash.

The three that I got stopped out of yesterday are all lower right now than where I got thrown out, which is oddly comforting.

That's what the stops are for Stenz. You can always re-enter after protecting your position. I am certain that the larger percentage of occassions a well placed stop will save you money and protect your gains.

[stenzrob]

All funds currently back at work now.
CRDN, AOB, SDTH, WATG, NTWK in slow account where I focus more on on undervalued.
RGEN in the fast account.
What a difference a week and some stop loss orders makes.

Slow account now holds only WATG.
That account is up 4% since 10/5.

Fast account is currently in cash.
That account was up 78% since 10/5 until the loss I took today in ININ, now up about 65%.
The loss taken today is, unbelievably, the first actual losing trade since 10/5 when I abandoned PTEN (at 22.10, it's now at 20) and started looking mostly at new highs for quick trade candidates.

Ticker sell/buy (notes)
EXAS 4.48/4.06 (peaked over $6, now at $3)
WATG 8.48/8.17
WATG 8.23/7.82
ALTI 4.78/4.03 (biggest % gainer, now at $4.20)
VOCS 34.19/33.6
NUVA 41.6/40.3
ZRAN 26.04/25.8
NTWK 4.36/4.29 (also traded in the other account, now under $3 again)
AOB 13.65/13.25 (also traded in the other account, now under $12 again)
LUNA 7.98/7.24 (longest time held, at 3 weeks)
VDSI 21.68/21.04 (now at $27. Of all these trades, this is the one of only two I should've held, in hindsight)
WATG 9.7/8.87
RGEN 5.38/5.25 (now above $6, the other one of two)
ININ 25.4/27.5

Thinking out loud:

So, what did I do wrong to end up with a losing trade in this account?
Other than the excuse that the market turned to crap after the Fed announcement (this ININ position was actually in the black by maybe 0.1% just prior to that), I fell back into old habits! I was attracted to ININ when it was setting new highs, so it was on my watchlist. I saw it drop by over 5% one day and saw it as a buying opportunity. This may be a reasonable thing to do, but it is not what got the 78% return in two months in this account. On the other hand, I sat through some virtual red ink on LUNA before it turned around to a profit, and it worked out to buy WATG again on a drop after selling higher. Maybe I just wasn't patient enough with ININ. Gotta' admit, though, it feels OK being mostly in cash right now.

[skiracer]

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.

[stenzrob]

I think it is a very volitaile market right now and not good for trading. You have no idea which way it is going go with no definite trend to gauge your trades.Absolutely, ski. I have no problem sitting in cash while a new trend develops, but I am also looking at a few candidates to trade anyway. Will continue to use stops to protect myself.

Looking at incy, ansr, resp, hrbn, emkr, oxps, rsti. These are all recent new highs, and meet my minimum volume requirements. I know almost nothing about any of them.

[stenzrob]

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.

[stenzrob]

Bought CYBS for $17.38

[stenzrob]

Bought QID at $38.55. Tried this once before with bad results, wanted to give it another try.

I think that between inflationary pressure and the subprime mess, a recession is likely, and the market will be headed generally down for a quarter, maybe two - hence the QID position.

Meanwhile, some stocks will manage to swim against the current, and I'm going to try to locate them.

Current holdings:
Fast account - EMKR (12.35)
Slow account - QID (38.55), WATG (10.55), CYBS (17.3)

[stenzrob]

Bought EMKR for $12.35.
Would probably have bought lower, closer to the open, but had non-stop meetings from 8:30 to 11:30.
Trading must generate lots more cash before I can give up the day job.Good stuff about EMKR here:
http://www.stockhouse.ca/mediascan/news.asp?newsid=9799004

[skiracer]

When trading for the short term (swing trades of 2/3 to 7/10 days I think there must be an identifiable trend, whether it be an uptrend or downtrend, in place and recognizable before you can make a trade and expect it to perform as expected based on some techinical analysis off a chart or a fundamental characteristic like increased sales or earnings. I stay out of the markets and trades when I cannot make an identifiable determination. It then becomes gambling to me which I don't want to do when trading. I want to know as closely as possible that what I expect to happen will have a good chance and an edge for me in happening the way I expect it to. There is no edge in forcing the issue in markets where the trend is unidentifiable.
I think the INDU is moving into a 5th wave up right here and that would be good for longside trades and the chances of EMKR following the market up right here. Good luck.

http://img156.imageshack.us/img156/8743/indump6.png (http://imageshack.us)

[stenzrob]

3 things I though I'd mention:

1. EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.

2. Ran across an interesting book excerpt about wall street analysts.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/12/10/stocks-mcclellan-bull-books_1211bookexcerpt.html
The underperformance of analyst picks is mind-boggling.

3. Also ran across an interesting ETF for alternative energy today: PBW. Holds stocks of companies involved in solar, batteries, etc.

[stenzrob]

... EMKR announced today that they will report results on Monday, before the open, with the conference call a day later. I've decided to hold the position through the report. Wish me luck.This news just came across the wire -
"Emcore to delay 10-k for fiscal year in NT 10-k
5:17 PM EST December 14, 2007"

So, I dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.

[stenzrob]

dumped this as fast as I could for $12.50 after hours before everyone found out about it. Snooze -> lose.
Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x76/stenzrob/MatrixDodge.jpg

[stenzrob]

Currently holding QID, WATG, CYBS.

QID position is profitable so far, 39.5x/38.55, but there's no telling what kind of news or whatever may turn the ship around, so I set a stop at 39.10 for today. I figure that as long as the market is headed down, I can stay in this, and if my stop is triggered, it might be time to go long in one of the stocks on my list.

WATG is about -10%, CYBS about -12% from my buys.
WATG is thinly traded, was whacked by news of private placement, but I believe it is still way undervalued, so I'm holding it with no stop and no plan to set a stop.
CYBS tried a breakout and failed and is now testing the 50 day, but pullback has been on light volume, so I am also holding this. No stop set yet, but I am looking at the chart to see where a breakdown might lead to likely further losses. This is not so undervalued as to warrant holding through hell or high water.

[billyjoe]

Now under $12 after hours.
Dodged a bullet that time!
http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x76/stenzrob/MatrixDodge.jpg
Stenz,
Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe

[skiracer]

Stenz,
Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoe

It's gambling Billyjoe.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
(EMKR) Now 11.70. I must have not read your thread closely. EMKR was on my hot list. If it made the earnings it was cash in the bank. Lucky for me it was only a POTW loss. I've learned that holding a stock for an expected development usually backfires.

-----------billyjoeAs it turns out, I could have gotten out higher for about half the day today. The late filing that prompted me to bail out probably had much less effect then the general market mood. The general market mood has been good to my QID, though, currently up 5.8%. I adjusted my QID stop up to $39.50, so if it triggers, I'll only be up 2.5% on it.

I should say that it serves you right for not reading my thread more closely. :confused:

[stenzrob]

Another interesting ETF, for those who may think that the Chinese market is in a bubble
- FXP: UltraShort FTSE/Xinhua China 25

ProShares also has ETF's that short or ultrashort other international indices.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/new-etf-lets-investors-profit/story.aspx?guid=%7B225CDEB1%2DACBD%2D4A6D%2D84CD%2 DADF393307D9F%7D&dist=TQP_Mod_mktwN

[stenzrob]

After the initial strong market open this morning, I tightened the stop on QID to 39.90.

If traders are selling rallies, then the opening should be the market high for the day (and the low for QID) as bears remain in control. If bulls are taking over, then after an initial attempt to drive the strong open back down, the market could head up again beyond the opening, driving QID back below the opening price.

[stenzrob]

After the initial strong market open this morning, I tightened the stop on QID to 39.90.Tightened it again to 40.75, which has now triggered.
40.75/38.55 = +5.7% since last Thursday.

[stenzrob]

EMKR up strong today after conference call this morning.
Oh, well. You can't go broke taking profits, as they say.

It looks like WATG has just been determined to get down to where the private placement was priced at $8.65. Maybe that level will provide some support.

I bought some LUNA this morning at $8.81.

Though I may have made a premature entrance, I'm liking the way CYBS is behaving, it looks like cup w/handle to me. My entrance was at $17.38, on what now appears to be the right side of the base.
http://img171.imageshack.us/img171/5210/cybscwhwz9.jpg

[stenzrob]

Bought SDTH at 9.85.

[stenzrob]

Bought SDTH at 9.85.Was lucky enough to grab this on an intraday pullback.
Recent news on patent, PEG about 0.6.
http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/1011/sdthcwhgi3.jpg

[stenzrob]

WATG came up nicely off the 50 day average today.
I'm trying to find a pattern to follow to trade this better than I have been.

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/4618/watgnextstepmo2.jpg

[stenzrob]

Tightened it again to 40.75, which has now triggered.
40.75/38.55 = +5.7% since last Thursday.Glad to be out of the QID position, I don't like hoping the market will be in a long term downtrend. Well, that, plus QID is already back below where I bought it. After-hours trading following RIM's results indicate another probably up day tomorrow as well.
http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/aspx/extendedTrading.aspx

[stenzrob]

Bought SDTH at 9.85.
Holy SDTH, batman!
No wonder this was #1 on the IIC100.
Now over 11.80, this is up about 20% in two days.
I placed a stop at 11.40, which if triggered will still be over +15%.
On vacation next week, but will be trying to escape the family for a few minutes each day to check in to see what's up with this and others.

If the stop triggers, I'll be looking for a lower re-entry,
and if it continues to move up, I will adjust the stop as needed.

[stenzrob]

Holy SDTH, batman!
No wonder this was #1 on the IIC100.
Now over 11.80, this is up about 20% in two days.
I placed a stop at 11.40, which if triggered will still be over +15%.
On vacation next week, but will be trying to escape the family for a few minutes each day to check in to see what's up with this and others.

If the stop triggers, I'll be looking for a lower re-entry,
and if it continues to move up, I will adjust the stop as needed.
SDTH is incredible. I adjusted stop to 11.90.
It went up $1 on a half day of trading,
but I only adjusted the stop by 50 cents.

[billyjoe]

Merry Christmas , Stenz. May we all find a bunch of SDTH's in 2008.

---------billyjoe

[skiracer]

SDTH is incredible. I adjusted stop to 11.90.
It went up $1 on a half day of trading,
but I only adjusted the stop by 50 cents.

Great play by both you and Doug Stenz. Protect those gains!

[stenzrob]

SDTH is incredible. I adjusted stop to 11.90.
It went up $1 on a half day of trading,
but I only adjusted the stop by 50 cents.
Stopped out of SDTH today, executed at 11.90.
+20.8% since 12/19.
I will be looking for another pullback to consider a re-entry.

Meanwhile,Piper Jaffray raised their target on WATG today.
"Piper Jaffray reiterates Buy. Target $12 to $15. Piper raises their ests and target to $15 from $12 after the co announced a 3-year $32 million export contract win. Firm says the contract win continues to solidify the co's position as a global supplier of auto parts, and they believe that future contract wins with global OEMs will provide positive catalysts for the stock"
I bought WATG on 12/5 at $10.55, now at about $11.50 (+9%), but this move may bring more attention.
This one is too thinly traded to use a stop.

[IIC]

Stopped out of SDTH today, executed at 11.90.
+20.8% since 12/19.
I will be looking for another pullback to consider a re-entry.

Meanwhile,Piper Jaffray raised their target on WATG today.
"Piper Jaffray reiterates Buy. Target $12 to $15. Piper raises their ests and target to $15 from $12 after the co announced a 3-year $32 million export contract win. Firm says the contract win continues to solidify the co's position as a global supplier of auto parts, and they believe that future contract wins with global OEMs will provide positive catalysts for the stock"
I bought WATG on 12/5 at $10.55, now at about $11.50 (+9%), but this move may bring more attention.
This one is too thinly traded to use a stop.


Yesterday I actually tried to bail on the final 1/4 stake I have in SDTH at 13.85 but computer at work froze up and the market closed...Today I tried a few limits but nothing...So I still have some.

[stenzrob]

I entered a stop for CYBS at $17.75 (for now). That is enough to keep about a 2% gain if it triggers. The CYBS chart still looks really nice, with good buying volume even yesterday when the volume on everything was way down.

Yesterday I actually tried to bail on the final 1/4 stake I have in SDTH at 13.85 but computer at work froze up and the market closed...Today I tried a few limits but nothing...So I still have some.
Doug, SDTH is going to do fine over time, I think. Still undervalued, but there had to be profit taking sometime, whether it was with a general market selloff or not. I protected mine by setting the stop rather than trying to guess when it would come. I have a lowball buy order entered, and may adjust it as things play out.

[IIC]

I entered a stop for CYBS at $17.75 (for now). That is enough to keep about a 2% gain if it triggers. The CYBS chart still looks really nice, with good buying volume even yesterday when the volume on everything was way down.


Doug, SDTH is going to do fine over time, I think. Still undervalued, but there had to be profit taking sometime, whether it was with a general market selloff or not. I protected mine by setting the stop rather than trying to guess when it would come. I have a lowball buy order entered, and may adjust it as things play out.



Geez...What are we...TWINS???...I own CYBS too...although I paid lo 19.30's yesterday...I'm not too worried about it...Take a look at BRKR...I bot it last Friday.

Only other one I own is BEAS...I expected another buyout offer that didn't happen...Yet anyway...Guess I didn't pay attention to my motto on that one...

[stenzrob]

Bought some IDRA this morning at $12.72.
Much better than the price at the open, which is why in real life I never make a market order, especially at the open.

Currently holding only LUNA and now IDRA.

Sold out my WATG and CYBS positions on 12/28.

WATG was bought at 10.55 on 12/5,
sold at 11.05 on 12/28 (+4.7%).

CYBS was bought at 17.38 on 12/13,
sold at 18.33 on 12/28 (+5.5%).

[stenzrob]

Bought some COIN (Converted Organics) for $5.05.
This is a speculative play, half my usual position dollar amount, and I'm willing to hold it for a while if it doesn't do well in the short term.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some AXTI for $6.44.
It is challenging record highs today, in the face of a nasty market.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some AXTI for $6.44.
It is challenging record highs today, in the face of a nasty market.
Seems to be breaking out on heavy volume.
Life is good sometimes.

[stenzrob]

Bought some COIN (Converted Organics) for $5.05.
This is a speculative play, half my usual position dollar amount, and I'm willing to hold it for a while if it doesn't do well in the short term.
As it turned out, it did well in the short term, I am out at $5.92 for a 17% gain on the day. I'll continue to watch it.

[stenzrob]

Bought some IDRA this morning at $12.72.I think this biotech stock is still largely undiscovered. A deal was signed with Merck in December that pays them $40m upfront and up to $381m in milestone payments as they proceed with development of their cancer drugs, yet the market cap is less than $300m. Analyst estimates for revenue have not been adjusted to reflect this.

But, stenz, you don't go for the story, you go for the momentum now.
Wassup' wit dat?

After the announcement, the weakness of early December was stopped in it's tracks and volume has been steadily above average until it hit my radar yesterday on the new 52 week high (breakout). Made this my POTW pick, thinking it would open under $13 and rise to around $13.50. Everything went according to plan, except that some idiot must have placed a market buy order this morning which the brokers were happy to fill at over $13.40 before it settled down to 12.70 to 12.80 within about 10 minutes.

As usual, I have no idea how far it might run, or even if it will run at all, I will only watch to see what it does. Already up over 4%, provides a bit of breathing room.

[stenzrob]

bought some HRBN at 27.02
bought some CYBS at 18.17

AXTI was doing just fine until some analyst downgraded it, saying that everything is fine, really, they just want to buy it cheaper.

[stenzrob]

I'm gettin' hammered in this market downturn, but still holding.
LUNA down 12%, HRBN and AXTI down about 10%, CYBS 7%, and IDRA is up slightly.

Another stock that has been on my watch list has an interesting lesson today about analysts - INCY was downgraded on Friday 1/4 to hold, fell from 10 to 9.4 on that downgrade, spend one more day there, and after pre-announcing positive test results this morning is now up to almost $12.

My AXTI position was doing fine and breaking out to new highs until it was downgraded "on valuation concerns". This looks to be finding support and I am expecting it to return to being a profitable position for me in the next few weeks.

[stenzrob]

bought some REXX for $12.95, for no reason other than a new high.

[stenzrob]

This market is nasty, and could get worse, so I am liquidating a few positions.

Sold HRBN at 21.25 for a 21% loss.
Sold REXX at 11.60 for a 10% loss.
Sold IDRA at 12.06 for a 5% loss.

Holding AXTI, currently -24%. Stop limit set.
Holding CYBS, currently -13%. Stop limit set.
Holding LUNA, currently -20%.

S&P500 50 day ema has crossed below the 200 day, and has closed below the 400 day ema and not recovered very quickly. This is the kind of persistent weakness that was seen in 2000.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43666580611

[stenzrob]

Removed the stops from AXTI and CYBS and just sold them outright.
AXTI at 4.90, 24% loss. CYBS at 15.62, 14% loss.

[stenzrob]

Replaced 4/5 of the sold positions with a dose of QID at $45.10.

[stenzrob]

Replaced 4/5 of the sold positions with a dose of QID at $45.10.Intel's miss should be good for QID: INTC is down over 10% and QID up about 3% after hours.

[stenzrob]

Sometimes taking the loss to prevent further loss turns out OK.
I only wish I'd been quicker.

On 1/15, I went on a stock liquidation spree and bought QID.
This is the result from the two days since then:

Stock , Sell price , 1/17 close
HRBN , 21.25 , 19.90 (-6.35%)
REXX , 11.60 , 10.13 (-12.67%)
IDRA , 12.06 , 11.17 (-7.38%)
AXTI , 4.90 , 5.00 (+2.04%)
CYBS , 15.62 , 13.23 (-15.30%)

QID , bought at 45.10 , now 48.02 (+6.47%)

Major stenz pronouncement:
My view is that we are now in the early stages of a serious bear market that will last another 6 to 18 months. The bull market that started in early 2003 is over :( . All the indices (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq) peaked in October 2007. I will watch to see if I'm wrong, but right now, my crystal ball is saying that this is not just another correction. There will be bounces along the way, and I will attempt to trade them, but basically the market is toast until sometime in 2009.

This major trend turn is what I have been waiting to see if I would recognize ever since I was burned (like so many) in 2001 and 2002.

It's pointless to debate fundamentals or economics. Trends maintain themselves. As the losses start to mount up, more and more regular folks will start to pull their money out of stock funds. The fund managers will have to sell the stocks from their portfolios whether they are undervalued, great long term growth stories, or whatever, in order to satisfy the redemptions.

Fund reallocation
After selling individual stocks and buying QID in the self-directed portion of my IRA on 1/15 as discussed above, I also calculated new allocations for the mutual funds portion last night and placed the orders to make the adjustment. Over the past year, the stock funds had grown to several percent above (and bonds below) their targets, so reallocation was about due anyway. The self-directed portion has outperformed all other allocations (except international) - was 4.5% a year ago and is now over 5.5%, but that is not subject to reallocation. The agreement I made with my wife when we transferred a bunch of loose IRA's and 401k's into single IRA's for each of us and reallocated about a year ago, was that 4.5% of the total at that time was what I could play with. There is a virtual wall around it - no money goes from mutual funds to self-direct or vice versa. I can only sell shares in a mutual fund if the proceeds go directly to another mutual fund as part of a reallocation. The only way that I get to actively trade/manage a larger portion of our retirement funds is to grow it myself into a larger portion. This way, if I suck at it, the losses are contained.

These allocations are designed to be significantly higher than average risk with a retirement timeframe of about 10 years.

Normal allocation:
Bonds 15%
SmlCap 15%
MidCap 15%
LrgCap 25%
Internat 25%
StenzPicks 5%

Bear Allocation:
Bonds 25%
SmlCap 10%
MidCap 10%
LrgCap 20%
Internat 20%
BEARX 10%
StenzPicks 5%

I'm no economist, and have done enough trading based on my own analysis to know that I'm no genius either. Since my pronouncement that we have just begun a major bear market could very well be flat-out wrong, the adjustments to my portfolio are what I would call incremental. Increasing bond allocation only makes the portfolio as a whole more conservative, and the portion that is specifically geared toward a bear market is only the 10% in BEARX, and that StenzPicks is likely to be in and out of an ultrashort ETF like QID until this bear is over.

[skiracer]

at least you have taken the time to try and develope a plan Stenz. better than just floundering.

[stenzrob]

Thanks ski. It's sad to see the same old stuff on the yahoo boards that was rampant in late 2000 and early 2001. Please note I only look at yahoo boards for amusement and to observe human (anti-social) behavior patterns.

"This stock can't possibly go below $xx because a) that's where support is b) that's where the P/E would be too low"

"This stock won't go down much further because this companies growth will be unaffected by the recession"

Many of those people are real people, who will be losing real money in the months to come (if my bear call is right). Some will use this "buying opportunity" to max out their margin accounts. It is useless to make any attempt to even moderate their wildly optimistic views.

[stenzrob]

Stimulus package won't help much, but has the futures up.
I took a look at pre-market trades in QID and set a stop limit at 46.50.

Taking my Audi to the shop today, leaving in a few minutes and might not be back until the afternoon. Set the stop because even during bear markets, rallies can be sharp and severe. Again, taking my cues from staring at the charts from late 2000.

[stenzrob]

Well, the market tried just hard enough to rally this morning to trigger my stop, which executed at 46.55. Still, the QID position still gained 3.2% while the market has tanked. I'll probably wait a few days before trying anything again, mostly because I don't want to be caught in anything, short or long, for more than a day right now.

[stenzrob]

Tuesday morning should see a significant gap down at the open.

Glad I adjusted my mutual funds, but it's a shame that I got stopped out of QID.

This is the update on futures on marketwatch today:
"March contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average traded 522 points lower to 11,584 as of 11:30 a.m. Eastern.

"Futures contract don't move in complete lockstep to the underlying indexes, but by comparison, the Dow industrials fell 382 points on Sept. 20, 2001, just days after the terrorist attack on the Twin Towers, and by 387 points on Aug. 9, 2007, shortly after the recent credit crunch first emerged.

"S&P 500 futures fell 60 points to 1,265.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures fell 76 points to 1,773.25."

[stenzrob]

back into QID at $50.
I'm thinking this bounce won't last.

[stenzrob]

AAPL's outlook should drive the market lower and QID higher tomorrow.
After hours, AAPL is down over 10%, and QID up about 3%.
The fun is just beginning.

[stenzrob]

Again, needed to hold that QID position for 3 days to prevent more serious trading restrictions on my account. This is very inconvenient, and meant that I was not able to exit intraday yesterday, but was able to escape this morning near the open at 50.32, with a measly 0.6% gain since Tuesday.
I will probably stay in cash for a few days until this rally starts to sell off again, which I still believe it will. I am looking for the nasdaq and qqqq to reverse at the 200 day ema.

[stenzrob]

Again, needed to hold that QID position for 3 days to prevent more serious trading restrictions on my account. This is very inconvenient, and meant that I was not able to exit intraday yesterday, but was able to escape this morning near the open at 50.32, with a measly 0.6% gain since Tuesday.
I will probably stay in cash for a few days until this rally starts to sell off again, which I still believe it will. I am looking for the nasdaq and qqqq to reverse at the 200 day ema.Couldn't resist, got back into QID again at 49 just before the close yesterday. Out of touch until a few minutes ago, I see it opened at 47 today and has been headed up ever since. Now comfortably back in the green again. QID is the only position I feel comfortable trading right now.

[stenzrob]

Set a stop no QID at 50.40.

Bought some ZRAN at 15.36, a bit slow on the trigger
Saw some demand for it at the open, and then saw that it was upgraded, also reporting after the close today.
Now I'll go see if I can find out the rationale for the upgrade.
Metrics look good, price/sales, price/book, PEG are all low and showing ZRAN to be undervalued here.

[stenzrob]

Set a stop no QID at 50.40.Well, that didn't take long. Out of QID for now.

Holding LUNA and ZRAN.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIGM for $46.00.

Now about 40% invested in a few long positions, also considering some SDTH. If the rally continues, these should do well, and if not, I'm prepared to dump them and go back into QID.

[stenzrob]

ZRAN's outlook sucks. Down a few dollars after hours. Oh, well.

[IIC]

Tough market

[stenzrob]

Just bought a bunch of QMAR at $21.75.
Unless there's something I'm just not seeing, this looks like free money.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIGM for $46.00.
SIGM seemed to be holding up alright, but dropped this morning. Chatter on the yahoo board (90% of which is noise, but there are nuggets to be found) says some institutions might be pissed off due to option repricing, so I checked the SEC filings. Sure enough, officers were awarded options back in November with strike prices of $58.37. 4/A's filed yesterday repriced those options on 1/25 to $45.83. Why? I've got to admit that I'm a little pissed off about this, too.

[stenzrob]

Due probably partially to being pissed about the option repricing, I dumped SIGM this morning at $42.40 for a 7.8% loss from my buy point at $46. At the time, it looked like the market was just bouncing from the low open, and for all I could tell, everything including SIGM would fizzle and run down. This didn't turn out to be the case, and SIGM is now back up nicely to around $45.50. You know what, though? I'm still glad to be out of it, because I now do not trust the execs to act in the best interests of the shareholders.

QMAR has continued up. My position from $21.75, even having bought well after the acquisition announcment, is now up over 10.5%. But most of it seems to be because all the dry shippers are up strong (QMAR, EXM, DRYS, DSX). QMAR is still selling at a 17% discount to the value of the acquisition if it closed today.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%. Yesterday, QMAR rose by less than 0.4084 off EXM's rise, and today QMAR is down by more than EXM's pullback. Since I am not understanding this, I decided to lighten up.

I sold 1/3 of the position that I took at 21.75, for 23.15 (+6.4%).

This, along with untimely sales of ZRAN and SIGM, also serves to raise cash for an expected re-entry into QID (or some other ultrashort ETF) in a day or two. If I sit on the cash for a few days, it gives me the flexibility to exit a position if it goes wrong without triggering trading restrictions in the account.

[stenzrob]

Bought some COIN at $10.

[stenzrob]

Bought some NTWK at $2.66.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%. Yesterday, QMAR rose by less than 0.4084 off EXM's rise, and today QMAR is down by more than EXM's pullback. Since I am not understanding this, I decided to lighten up.

I sold 1/3 of the position that I took at 21.75, for 23.15 (+6.4%).Sold another 1/3 at $23.45. That leaves me with a "normal sized" position in QMAR (20% of self-directed portion of IRA), rather than triple my usual position.

Holding QMAR, COIN, NTWK and 40% cash in the IRA.
Also LUNA in the other account.

[Clarkstondude]

I was in QMAR for a few days but cashed out and didn't go back in. Everything was pointing up but the markets make all rules, charting, tech analysis and just plain luck obsolete. Wasn't even near its resistance levels yet...:confused: Hoping my STP opens on a gap up to recoup some late afternoon loss but I wouldn't be surprised to see slippage either.

[stenzrob]

Clarkstondude, I plan to hold my remaining QMAR until the acquisition is completed or the price gets within 5% of the deal formula. There is always the risk that it will fall through, but this seems like less of a risk than the risk associated with any other stock.

[stenzrob]

The last time that the S&P500 50 day ema crossed below the 400 day ema was December 2000. It might be an interesting year or so ahead.

http://img172.imageshack.us/img172/750/spx50100400day20080205kt5.jpg

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG today at 9.43.
Tried to get some for 9.20, but "they" started playing games with me.

[Clarkstondude]

QID is going crazy in after hours! Glad I didn't cash out today :D

[stenzrob]

I'm out of QID and long a few other things right now, none of which are doing very well, I have to admit.

Longer-term I'm bearish and QID is a great way to play that trend.

Shorter term, though, I expect that "bargain hunting" will hold or drive up the indexes to either the 50 day or 200 day moving averages, which they are currently well below. The kind of action I expect is similar to market behavior in early 2001.

[stenzrob]

I don't understand why QMAR continue to sell at a discount to the deal price, discount varies from 17 to 20%.With QMAR holding up better than EXM over the last several days, the QMAR discount to deal closing price relative to EXM's current share price is now down to 14%.
($13 + 0.4084 x 32.90 = $26.44)

I plan to hold QMAR until the discount is less than 5%, unless EXM falls enough to drive the deal closing price below my QMAR buy price.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SDTH at 14.19.

[stenzrob]

Bought some COIN at $10.
More news from COIN today, regarding trading emissions credits.
So, their business model is:
- get paid to accept organic waste,
- use it to create fertilizer,
- get paid for the fertilizer, and
- get paid for preventing the waste from sitting in landfills.
Welcome to the 21st century.

[stenzrob]

Out of COIN at $12.90. (+29.0%)
Out of SDTH at $11.22. (-20.9%)

[stenzrob]

Due probably partially to being pissed about the option repricing, I dumped SIGM this morning at $42.40 for a 7.8% loss from my buy point at $46. At the time, it looked like the market was just bouncing from the low open, and for all I could tell, everything including SIGM would fizzle and run down. This didn't turn out to be the case, and SIGM is now back up nicely to around $45.50. You know what, though? I'm still glad to be out of it, because I now do not trust the execs to act in the best interests of the shareholders.
SIGM execs now claiming they are having to sell because there is a narrow window between option vesting and expiring. I have not read all the details of the SEC filings, etc., but this just smells to me. Glad that I dumped this for that reason, and also that it's now down to around $30.

[IIC]

Out of COIN at $12.90. (+29.0%)
Out of SDTH at $11.22. (-20.9%)


COIN is a day traders dream altho I've only traded it once.

SDTH...#1 on the IIC 100 to off the list...Actually, I knew that would happen and I probably should've posted that altho it probably wouldn't have made a difference...Sorry about that if you were looking at the list

[stenzrob]

COIN is a day traders dream altho I've only traded it once.This makes twice for me. I really don't want to get stuck on the wrong side of this one.

SDTH...#1 on the IIC 100 to off the list...Actually, I knew that would happen and I probably should've posted that altho it probably wouldn't have made a difference...Sorry about that if you were looking at the listNo problem, Doug. I wasn't looking at the list.

[IIC]

No problem, Doug. I wasn't looking at the list.


Geez...Over 30,000,000 investors looking at the list each week...and you missed it...I'm hurt;)

Actually, I know ahead of time which ones will be gone or have major changes in the ranking...But it is not a paying job so I don't post nightly updates

[skiracer]

Geez...Over 30,000,000 investors looking at the list each week...and you missed it...I'm hurt;)

Actually, I know ahead of time which ones will be gone or have major changes in the ranking...But it is not a paying job so I don't post nightly updates

if over 30,000,000 are viewing your list every week you should be actively marketing it as a subscription service. 1000 out of 30,000,000 at $20-25 a month would make you comfortable. half that would be a big plus to your yearly income. that's a big number Doug. are you absolutely sure of that 30,000,000?

[IIC]

if over 30,000,000 are viewing your list every week you should be actively marketing it as a subscription service. 1000 out of 30,000,000 at $20-25 a month would make you comfortable. half that would be a big plus to your yearly income. that's a big number Doug. are you absolutely sure of that 30,000,000?


Oop's...my 00000 key got stuck

[skiracer]

Oop's...my 00000 key got stuck

i know the feeling. i suffer from the same keyboard malfunction at times.

[stenzrob]

Bought some EXAC at $26.90.

[stenzrob]

Bought some WATG today at 9.43.
Tried to get some for 9.20, but "they" started playing games with me.Dumped this at $9.45 for fractional gain before commissions.
Just seems to be going nowhere and volume is drying up.

[sirtuck]

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

[stenzrob]

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtucksirtuck, I don't know about ski, but I wouldn't. Even if they meet, estimates look to be for steadily decreasing revenue and earnings.

[stenzrob]

I've been raising a little cash yesterday and today in anticipation of an opportunity to jump into QID again for another leg down in the indexes. Hence the dumping of WATG, COIN and SDTH. Still holding a small position in NTWK, plan to be patient with it, and some QMAR until it gets within 5% of the acquisition algebra. The EXAC bought today doesn't seem to follow the overall market.
Anyway, the point is, I'm looking for the market to take another beating soon, and I wanted to raise cash a few days early if possible, so there won't be any trading restrictions on it.

This is a nasdaq chart that I marked up about a week ago.
The idea here is that the index is forming a symmetrical triangle with likelihood of a break to the downside once everyone realizes that it's not going to rally.

http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/8536/compqbreakdownpredictioax2.jpg

[skiracer]

Skiracer, would you hold GEHL thur earning u know they had a negative surprise last earnings. Sirtuck

their overall estimates are higher than last qtr and last year peaking in the qtr ending this june and decreasing after that thru 2008 but still higher than last year. estimates for 2009 are higher than 2008.
to be honest it was a bottom play off the developing cup base formation. i like to catch them there. i was in earlier about 5-6 wks ago and got stopped out. was premature and to early. waited for a re-entry until after it broke thru it's 50 sma. re-entered yesterday at 18.20 after it broke thru the 50. clear sailing until the 100 sma as far as i can see on the daily which is at 22.46 and corresponds almost exactly with the top of the left side of the cup base. that's my target area 22 -22.50 level where i would expect the handle to start forming. that would be my exit point anyway because no sense holding in front of the handle and the drop accompanying that.
i'm going to be watching it closely between now and then. to answer you question about holding thru earnings. not sure which will come first. reaching the 100 sma at 22 and my target or the earnings report. i don't think i would hold thru earning if i'm close to the target level. if i get another point or two between now and then i would be happy with the trade. if it gets that far and the earnings report is decent and doesn't screw things up i would wait for the handle to form and then look to catch the breakout. alot would have to fall into place.

[stenzrob]

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.

[IIC]

Just found an interesting page at marketwatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/industry/

This shows which industriy sectors are doing best and worst over a time period that you can select. For three months, there are some top performing industries that didn't surprise me, like precious metals, coal, mining, etc. The one that surprised me a bit, though, was Home Construction Index, up 36.8% in the last 3 months.

Clicking through to the components of the index, all the usual names are there - Pulte, Horton, Hovnanian, Ryland - all up 40% or more in the last 3 months.

Could it be that this is the time to be buying homebuilders? If the market looks 6 months out as it has been said, then all the news out right now about continuing price drops and slow sales could be signalling the bottom for the homebuilders. I gotta' go look at some numbers, but if anybody is reading this and thinks that now is the time to be buying the homebuilders, I'd like to hear from you.


I wouldn't touch a homebuilder

[stenzrob]

Bought some EXAC at $26.90.
EXAC report due out after the close tonight, conference call tomorrow morning.

[stenzrob]

I wouldn't touch a homebuilder
Thanks for the input, Doug. I just saw this up on marketwatch, and plan to read it tomorrow while my son takes the SAT.
http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/496/marketweekendmx0.jpg

[IIC]

Well...I can think of no reason why homebuilders would do any good in the foreseeable future...Extended loans are only gonna prolong the agony...Reduced prices will raise a little cash...But I don't see much good here until AT LEAST 2010...Maybe longer.

[stenzrob]

EXAC report due out after the close tonight, conference call tomorrow morning.
Out of EXAC at 27.23 for +1.23%.
Looking to maybe buyback at the bottom of the rising trendlines.
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/8158/exac030308lq3.jpg

[stenzrob]

Bought some QID today, my guess is that the little bounce of the index off the test of January low is not going to hold. The markets are headed for new lows, IMHO, and so I bought some QID at $52.80.

Also bought a little bit of penny stock QTWW at $0.94,
more like gambling than anything else.

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
Good move with the QID buy. I wouldn't trust this market as far as I could throw a brick sh#@house. And that's what they'll be operating out of before long if this keeps up.

---------billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Billyjoe, The annoying thing is, I had this pegged before the big drop, but I wasn't able to move fast enough to take advantage of it. See my earlier post on 2/27 with an annotated nasdaq chart where I was getting primed to get back into QID.

[stenzrob]

Last friday, I sold out everything I had been holding ... except QID.

[IIC]

Last friday, I sold out everything I had been holding ... except QID.

Glad to hear it...Doug

[stenzrob]

Out of COIN at $12.90. (+29.0%)
Out of SDTH at $11.22. (-20.9%)
Had been kickin' myself over COIN as it continued to run, but it may finally have run out of "bigger fools" today when someone pointed this out at seeking alpha. I feel lucky to have traded it profitably several times during it's run, and never lost a dime on it.

[IIC]

Had been kickin' myself over COIN as it continued to run, but it may finally have run out of "bigger fools" today when someone pointed this out at seeking alpha. I feel lucky to have traded it profitably several times during it's run, and never lost a dime on it.


I sold COIN last Monday from a buy the previous Friday...Made some nice COIN but it kept going and my wife gave me a hard time...UNTIL TODAY!!!

I also dt'd it today for +.12...Heck...I'll take it on the 1 min. techs...After that I was busy all day.

Watch CCC