Stenzrob's specials

[Michaelk005]

OOOOOO i Love LCCI and look at its after hours repsonse, up over 60 cents. The reversal that will start tomorow in my estimations will not stop any lower then $7.50 to $7.77

[stenzrob]

I am disappointed in the market response to the HBIO report.
But sometimes these things act a little funny after reports.
They met my expectations, so I will probably be holding it for at least another three months.

[stenzrob]

HBIO just announced another small, immediately accretive acquisition.

[stenzrob]

FYI - Just sold half my CPTV an the breakout resistance at $13.99, still holding the other half.

+11.8%, 2 months, 104% annualized

[stocks54]

Stenz,

Are you still holding QVDX?

Regards,

[Tsevni98]

Stenz I think you missed the bottom on this one by 1 day. Still ever since you bought it It has been nothing but upward. It has an IBD Composite rating of A+. If it can chop thru these teens IBD is sure to give it more attention.

[Mi6op]

Is there any where to find IBD ratings besides getting the Paper or buying the website? I dont' have the time to hit the library up too often.

[stenzrob]

Greetings to all from Madrid -
- I was sold out of QVDX at $5.35 for less profit than I had been sitting on, but still netted 28% since Oct 22 (91% annualized). I had set a stop a nickel below the previous low. This stock has not taken off like I thought it would. Maybe it will now that I have given up on it.
- I was sold out of EONC at $3.00 for a 20% loss (-75% annualized). Had a stop on this one, too, since the last report was a bit lackluster and it's down to expectations now, and I tend not to trust expectations.
- HBIO continues the long climb back, my knife-catching act at $9.30 only hurt for a few days.
- WITS and SNCI continue to do well.
- I am considering dumping a few other poor performers.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Well, Madrid has certainly been an interesting place to be lately. I travel by taxi. Expecting some tight security at the airport on Monday for my flight to Amsterdam.

The CPTV that I bought for $12.50 and sold for $13.99 ... bought it back yesterday for $12.50.

[mrmarket]

Stenz...be cool and be safe.

[stenzrob]

Stenz...be cool and be safe.Thanks, Señor ENORME.
Maybe I should change my signature line to "Travelling without Fear" ?

[Karel]

Well, Madrid has certainly been an interesting place to be lately. I travel by taxi. Expecting some tight security at the airport on Monday for my flight to Amsterdam.Hmm, that brings you about 125 km from my home town, Nijmegen! it is really a pity that I am awfully busy at the moment. (Witness my late reaction.)

Anyway, I hope you have a nice and safe trip, and enjoy your stay!

Regards,

Karel

[stocks54]

Wow. Look at AH. Am I glad to be out of this stock few days back. It was major portion of my portfolio. I guess I learned (for time being) the lesson to put the money equally ditributed in few positions...

[tokyojoeskid]

when something like this happens what are your suggestions. I was going to sell this thing since it has been going through a downward distribution , but i reluctantly never did.

So do I wake up tomm at 830am and sell? It is really unfortunate that this had to happen, I am only 21 but losing 30% in one day after a company fudged a big proportion of their numbers is really troubling. Any suggestions . . anything would help as I am in a sour mood.
thx
TJK
:evil:

[stocks54]

Hello tokyojoeskid,

Sorry to hear about that. I also am beginner as far as investing goes. What troubled me was:

1) it went below 50 day moving average
2) lately market has been down but the way it was going down (volume & price ) something looked wrong.

this is the time where I wish Stenz would have been here to answer your question.

Once Stenz returns from his Europe tour I am going to ask him few questions regarding stop orders in that way if something goes wrong & I am not watching the market I can bail out.

Good Luck,

[ChrisZXWJ]

when something like this happens what are your suggestions. I was going to sell this thing since it has been going through a downward distribution , but i reluctantly never did.

So do I wake up tomm at 830am and sell? It is really unfortunate that this had to happen, I am only 21 but losing 30% in one day after a company fudged a big proportion of their numbers is really troubling. Any suggestions . . anything would help as I am in a sour mood.
thx
TJK
:evil:

if it makes you feel any better, I took it up the ass too. In fact, I even bought more the other day :) On the other hand, I don't think the news is awful news and so far today the recovery off of the lows seems to indicate that. Just looks like my short term investment strategy just turned long term...

[stenzrob]

Greetings from Amsterdam - (Karel, so close and yet so far!)

Glad I got stopped out of QVDX when I did.

Setting stops is based on TA, it's not foolproof, but it limits losses - refer to my comment when I said I'd been stopped out of QVDX - "I had set a stop a nickel below the previous low". Any stock will fluctuate, small caps sometimes quite a bit. A stock with good prospects should be in an uptrend, which means the proverbial higher highs and higher lows. Qvdx dropped and bounced after their last report. I didn't entirely understand why, but that's what it did. I just figured that if it went below where it had sold off to after the report, it was all over.

I was also stopped out of EONC - had set the stop at $3. Same basic reasoning.

Since then, I have also been stopped out of CTRA at $3.40.

My portfolio has been going nowhere lately, but that's not too unreasonable given what the market has been doing the last few weeks.

As far as what to do with QVDX now - we've discussed this here a bit in the past. I sold LENS for around a 30% loss at around $10 after they disappointed in November, it's now at $6. 30% may not be a pleasant loss, but it's a lot better than watching your remaining position dwindle even more.

Best of luck to all ... stenz.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Got stopped out of QVDX...oh well, I guess that'll offset the taxes on TRCI :)

Just wanted to get everyone's opinion on MGIC. I owned this a long long time ago and made in excess of 300%. Not quite sure if I see that potential again, but maybe 50%. What does everyone else think?

[allnewin01]

Stenz,

Hope you're enjoying the Netherlands. I've heard that there is alot to enjoy. I wish I could be there.

Anyway, have you ever tried to purchase the entire basket of stocks that you're screen comes up with. I mean don't even look at the fundamentals or technicals and just buy the whole thing in equal amounts.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

Hope you're enjoying the Netherlands. I've heard that there is alot to enjoy. I wish I could be there.

Anyway, have you ever tried to purchase the entire basket of stocks that you're screen comes up with. I mean don't even look at the fundamentals or technicals and just buy the whole thing in equal amounts.I'm back. No, I never tried that. I'd like to think that my research adds value to the screen. I may be delusional, but that's what I like to think, anyway.

[Truth4Honor]

Stenz,

Did you see CRIO's latest run the past week? Another nice swing trade for me. We still could not sustain run and set a new high, but check out the volume. It shouldn't be too long before it we break $4 IMHO.

Regards,

[Tsevni98]

STENZ Abandoned his board. HE posts regularly on the Yahoo NTST and HBIO board. In fact he posted there several times today. 3/26

STENZ why are you ignoring the HUGE one??

STENZ - I am not a stalker I promise. Just a have no life lurker.

[MEA_1956]

TRCI is looken mighty fine at this point. there just may be 15% in the near furture here. Any input on this topic ===> MEA

[stenzrob]

STENZ Abandoned his board. HE posts regularly on the Yahoo NTST and HBIO board. In fact he posted there several times today. 3/26

STENZ why are you ignoring the HUGE one??

STENZ - I am not a stalker I promise. Just a have no life lurker.Not a deliberate boycott. I simply have had nothing to add, having made very few changes lately. Some of my holdings are up, some down. I have been active on the NTST board for almost two years now, though I have no current position in NTST. HBIO is currently my largest holding, and I just think that continuing comments about HBIO are more appropriate for the HBIO board. Also, I have been extremely busy since returning from Europe, having accepted new responsibilities as a result of meetings on that trip.

best regards to my HUGE friends ... stenz

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz,

I've decided what I'm going to do in terms of researching your screen. I'm going to backtest 10 years to see how an equally weighted portfolio of the stocks selected by the screen would have performed relative to the S&P and other benchmarks on a yearly basis. Not very involved, but it should be good enough for a 10 page paper. Do you have any suggestions/ideas? One problem I see is trying to weed out the stocks on the relative strength aspect. I'm not quite sure how I'm going to do that just yet.

Chris

[lindsayleeds]

Stenz,

You wanna turn around your bad start this year? It is PRZ time! PRZ has been increasing revenue at a rapid pace the last two years, but I believe earnings this April will start showing the profitability. Management is predicting .30 EPS this year. It is currently trading about a P/E of 40-50. However, even if that slows to a P/E of 30 * .30 EPS that gives us a target price of $9 for early 2005. At the current price of $2.94 per share, that's a triple waiting to happen.

The management has been very successful at doing what they say they are going to do. I really have confidence in them.

See my posts on the Yahoo! forums for more info.

My ADNW is rocking the house right now. But my BEL just got a 30% slap in the face. I really think BEL is a good buy right now. The market overreacted to the bad news. The company is still solid and has a great track record.

Good management makes a good stock. Bad management makes for a bad stock (QVDX).

Well it hasn't been a great year for me either. But at least I'm still in the black for the year. I really strongly recommend PRZ to y'all.

Lindsay

[stenzrob]

Appreciate your concern, but PRZ just doesn't look attractive to me.

This has not been the greatest quarter for me, but I survived it OK. Narrowly escaped some real ball-busters like QVDX by setting stops. Also took advantage of some short term weakness in otherwise strong stocks that still look good to me over the longer term, like HBIO. I believe that tokyojoeskid is also pleased with picking up some additional HBIO when it was down a bit.

At the end of this quarter, (relative to January 2), my portfolio is up 1% while the nasdaq is down 0.5%. Certainly nothing to write home about, but my kind of stock picks are historically more likely to outperform by a wide margin in a bull market. If I can just keep from losing my shirt when the market is flat to down, I'm OK with that. I was down for the quarter almost 10% just a week ago - with HBIO rebounding, and WITS and SNCI showing some strength, it came back pretty quickly.

I'm currently holding PDEX, HBIO, WITS, HSKA, and LCCI and about 35% cash. Took some profits temporarily in CPTV and SNCI, but I still like these as well as looking at some others.

If the nasdaq doesn't clear and hold the 2000 level with some volume pretty soon, I will start carefully unloading before it returns to 1500.

[tokyojoeskid]

Thats right I also thought Hbio was attractive and doubled up at 7.90. Looking for a quick 20% pop will prolly sell that lot at around 9.50. Seems like hbio swings like mad and yes i would love to see the thing just keep going but I would also like to secure some gains.

I am in about 30%cash just waiting on the sidelines to see where the market decides to go.

UTSI is killing me. This company is UNDERVALUED, I just cant see the reason its being held down like it is, someone tell me something negative about the company!! patience patience patience

TJK

[mrmarket]

Thats right I also thought Hbio was attractive and doubled up at 7.90. Looking for a quick 20% pop will prolly sell that lot at around 9.50. Seems like hbio swings like mad and yes i would love to see the thing just keep going but I would also like to secure some gains.

I am in about 30%cash just waiting on the sidelines to see where the market decides to go.

UTSI is killing me. This company is UNDERVALUED, I just cant see the reason its being held down like it is, someone tell me something negative about the company!! patience patience patience

TJK

I no longer own UTSI but I am amazed at how poorly the stock has done given its earnings and future prospects. This is a takeover waiting to happen if the stock does not reflect the company's superior performance. Management better get out to Wall Street and start beating a drum or they will be unemployed soon!

[Mi6op]

Stenz do you no longer hold HSKA? The stock took a dive a few weeks ago but is slowly coming back. Still the strong fundamentals as before.

[billyjoe]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

[lindsayleeds]

Stenz,

To hear you talking about the NAZ holding 2000 with volume I would think maybe you are a CAN-SLIM type investor. Wouldn't simply holding the 2000 mark with heavy volume be days of distribution by mutual funds? I would understand that as a CAN-SLIM sell signal unless the NAZ was advancing steadily during that heavy volume.

[mrmarket]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

[IIC]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

Here is 33 of them:
DYIIE
QLGC
RYAAY
SRDX
ACAI
ESI
HNT
ODSY
ELX
CSLMF
FRED
KKD
TEU
UTSI
AMGN
ABC
BBI
CVCY
FHCC
OVRL
SYNF
ABCO
EPIQ
FLB
MANT
NAVG
SBKC
BSTE
CIA
CP
FISV
FOX
MYL

However, I prefer to keep tabs on what I call UNDISCOVERED GEMS...Lo RS and great current EPS and Projections(not IBD EPS rank)...Here is my current list:

CCRD
EXLT
MESA
NTGR
PKTR
TLGD

BTW: Don't know if this discussion belongs on Stenz's thread...If you want to discuss this further...You know where to find me billyjoe...Sorry Stenz...IIC

[stenzrob]

Stenz do you no longer hold HSKA? The stock took a dive a few weeks ago but is slowly coming back. Still the strong fundamentals as before.I still hold my original positions that are under water, having bought at $3 and $2.50. When it dropped to $2, I bought some more, and sold that chunk for $2.40 a week later.

As you say, the story is still the same, that's why I continue to hold the core position. I just took the opportunity for a few bucks into my pocket on the dip.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,

To hear you talking about the NAZ holding 2000 with volume I would think maybe you are a CAN-SLIM type investor. Wouldn't simply holding the 2000 mark with heavy volume be days of distribution by mutual funds? I would understand that as a CAN-SLIM sell signal unless the NAZ was advancing steadily during that heavy volume.I only meant that I wanted to see an accumulation day - not a rise above 2000 on low volume, which would be doomed to be reversed, and not a spike above 2000 only to settle below it again with volume. Something like yesterday was what I was looking for to make me less nervous about impending doom. CAN-SLIM? Not exactly, I just observe the index to keep from trying to swim against the current, that's all.

[stenzrob]

Mr. Market and others,
UTSI has an earnings per share rating of 98 and a relative strength of 6! There can't be many stocks in this category. Can anyone name another? If so wouldn't it be an interesting group to track. Have any of the MM group ever done this research? Thanks for any information.
billyjoe

In bear markets I have bought stocks with very low RS ratings and very high EPS ratings....basically it tells you to buy cheap oversold stocks. It works, but you have to be patient. Using my model is more fun.

Here is 33 of them: <deleted>

However, I prefer to keep tabs on what I call UNDISCOVERED GEMS...Lo RS and great current EPS and Projections(not IBD EPS rank)...Here is my current list: <deleted>

BTW: Don't know if this discussion belongs on Stenz's thread...If you want to discuss this further...You know where to find me billyjoe...Sorry Stenz...IICNo problem. I've had some occasional success in the past with some high EPS low RS stocks. MSN has a predefined screen called "Great Expectations" that often has some interesting prospects. This is where I first found SCLD, for example (which I am currently not in). The key to the undiscovered gems type of stock is to be badly undervalued relative to projections for healthy growth, and then to meet or exceed those projections. They're undervalued (undiscovered) because nobody really believes the projections. I also pay little attention to analyst estimates - the real undiscovered gems in my book are those that have no published analyst estimates, but the companies provide their own guidance, meet or exceed slightly that guidance, and have provided recent guidance that shows more growth ahead. Finding such companies is difficult, and also can require patience. PDEX falls into this category.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Hey Stenz, what's the current portfolio look like?

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, what's the current portfolio look like?
Holding HBIO, WITS, HSKA, LCCI, PDEX.
Also just added some LIFC today for $8.00.

p.s. I also have some BRHI I bought for $0.72, but this has nothing to do with my usual selection criteria.

[ChrisZXWJ]

ah, I was wondering why you haven't mentioned GMAI's recent runup.

Do you have a lot of cash, or just a lot in a few positions? seems like you had 10 or so before

[stenzrob]

ah, I was wondering why you haven't mentioned GMAI's recent runup.

Do you have a lot of cash, or just a lot in a few positions? seems like you had 10 or so beforeA little of both, Chris - I currently have 7 positions, and about 27% cash in each account. Probably going to pull the excess cash out of my non-IRA to pay cap gains taxes for 2003 and cover a planned 2 week Danube river cruise with my family, who are upset that I keep going to Europe without them (the whiners).
http://www.uniworld.com/trip_overview.asp?Cruise_ID=423

The cash in the IRA is just waiting for a good opportunity.

I missed the recent GMAI runup, add it to the ever-lengthening list of stenzblunders!

[Tsevni98]

Added HURC today it has been on the move lately.

SOmetimes it shows up on your screen Stenz it was between 5.50 and 6.00 forever. Now it is knocking on 9. It fell of your screen this time because the avg volume has been to low. These last couple of days should solve that problem/


Long HURC. NAII had a nice move today. It is also on your screens often.

[craigmoosh]

Stenz - Nice call on LIFC!! I bought it this morning and I'm already up 10% in 6 hours. Not bad!

HBIO has also been flying the past week, but that thing likes to sell off after big run-ups. I've done fairly well playing the swings, though.

I really like WITS, but I sold it at $14.28. I'm hoping to buy back in the low 13's (which could put a nice handle on the cup, btw), but I wouldn't be all that surprised if it doesn't ever see that level again.

Thanks for all the great picks!

Craig

[stenzrob]

Added HURC today it has been on the move lately.

SOmetimes it shows up on your screen Stenz it was between 5.50 and 6.00 forever. Now it is knocking on 9. It fell of your screen this time because the avg volume has been to low. These last couple of days should solve that problem/


Long HURC. NAII had a nice move today. It is also on your screens often.I like HURC, it's on my watchlist.

[stenzrob]

Dumped LCCI for a 16% loss at $6.20.
Bought SNCI back at $11.00.

[tokyojoeskid]

Thats weird I ran my screener a week ago and one near the top of my list was snci. I will be joining you at 11, actually I got mine for 10.999 ha
Looks like an interesting company too, and seems like they are really growing, hopefully they can keep it up. nice pick stenz
tjk

[stenzrob]

My timing on LIFC was pretty good, bought just before a breakout - I continue to hold it, up about 14% in one week.

Timing has been slightly less good on SNCI lately - first bought for $9.50 on 2/13, and after a few weeks it took off, and I took the 25% profit at $12 on 3/18. Had been out of it looking for some short term weakness to buy back in, thought I got a good deal last Friday at $11. $10 today would have been a better deal, I guess. If there is continued weakness, I will buy more of this- 49% sales growth last year, more of the same projected, with rapidly increasing profitability, yet price/sales is only about 2.5, so the price could possibly double from here - EPS was 0.02 this year, guidance from the company is for greater than 0.28 next year, that's over 1000% earnings growth - what should the PE be for that? Right now, it's selling for 36x estimated 2004 EPS.

HBIO has sure been a lot of fun. Originally bought in my IRA for $6, I neglected to sell on any of the spikes. Bought some more for around $9.25 sometime in January or February, and again failed to sell on any of the spikes. Bought some for my cash account at $9.30 as it was selling off in late February, making this position very overweighted in my total portfolio, and bought still more at $8 a few weeks ago. This was starting to make me a bit uncomfortable being so overweight (no HUGE jokes, please), so I have sold the newer positions as they have become profitable, the $8 position was sold for $9 and a 12% profit a few days later, half the $9.30 position was sold for $9.55 and a small profit a few days after that, and the rest of it for $10 last Thursday. That left only the IRA positions, and I sold the $9.25 position for $10.10 today. A fair amount of profits in my pocket for riding the coaster, and I still have the original position, bought at $6 last September and still up over 60%. I plan to continue holding the original position, and might add to it again if the opportunity arises.

For those that may be curious:
this leaves me with WITS as my largest holding, HBIO, HSKA, SNCI, LIFC, PDEX, and a mini-position in BRHI. 37% cash in the IRA, and 20% cash in the other account after pulling out over half of my profits from 2003 as mentioned before for taxes and a bit of recreation.

I have sat and watched a few stocks from my screen take off without me (QUIN, for example) while I continue to sit on some of the ones that used to be moving, until I bought them. Ernie sells after hitting his target to get on a "faster horse", but maybe the same argument should apply when sitting on a dead horse, which several dissidents have pointed out about some of Ernie's holdings. I think Ernie should do what he wants to do, and I'm not interested in suggesting that he do otherwise. Who am I to suggest such a thing, anyway? Kevin Kennedy has said something like that if the stock doesn't set a new high in three months, then lose it. That would apply to my holdings of PDEX and HSKA. But then, it also applied to GMAI, I got tired of it and dumped it shortly before it made another run. Just thinking out loud here - my portfolio is still beating the nasdaq year-to-date and this stock trading is a fun hobby.

regards ... stenz

[IIC]

FWIW...WITS is my largest holding too...BOT the day before it appeared in New America last week...I like it as a long term hold...but you know me...LTH usually means a week or two :D

[Dave]

Anyone tag along on IPIX? Huge surge up on what can only be described as insane volume. I re-routed some cash to that one and rode it from 17 to 26 yesterday over a span of about an hour. Insane. Going to keep an eye on this one for the rest of the week.

-Coach

[stenzrob]

HBIO has sure been a lot of fun ... I plan to continue holding the original position, and might add to it again if the opportunity arises.

I have sat and watched a few stocks from my screen take off without me (QUIN, for example)...
Glad I liquidated the excess HBIO in the $10 area. Patiently waiting for an opportunity to get some of the excess shares back, but I solemnly vow not to get as overweighted in it as I once was. It seems to turn on the stochastic moreso than on the MACD. Maybe I'll just wait for that.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=hbio,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60]&pref=G

Picked up some QUIN for $12.75 today. I kept looking at it, thinking I should buy some, then all of a sudden it dropped about $1 on negligible volume. I took that as an engraved invitation. Find out tomorrow if it was an invitation to a party or to my funeral.

Still at 40% cash in my IRA.

To answer Dave's question - I had no part of IPIX. The whole surveillance security business has been going crazy the last week or so, and this kind of momentum can turn around and bite you just as quickly. I just don't have the time or inclination to play those games, though I'll tip my hat to anyone who can [i]consistently play it profitably. I will continue to play my game - find some stocks I like, hold some and trade some.

And IIC - it's worth something to me that you're also in WITS. As with others, I continue to hold my original position and trade a second position. I'm looking for some action like in March, a slow drift on decreasing volume back to the 50 day, then a reversal.

[Bakxs]

The whole surveillance security business has been going crazy the last week or so, and this kind of momentum can turn around and bite you just as quickly. I just don't have the time or inclination to play those games, though I'll tip my hat to anyone who can consistently play it profitably. I will continue to play my game - find some stocks I like, hold some and trade some.


MACE has tripled in the last two days.

CRAZY~

--Bakxs

[stenzrob]

MACE has tripled in the last two days.
TBUS was $2.50 on April 2, trading volume was averaging less than 10k shares per day for years.
It just peaked at over $16 yesterday on almost 20 million shares traded.
~CRAZY indeed.

[Bakxs]

...is anyone playing these high-flying "defense" stocks (MACE, TBUS, etc...)?

--Bakxs

[FundaMental1]

Hey Stenz & Tokyojoekid,

I'm a new poster to this board and wanted to get your thoughts on SNCI.
I have just started to do my own DD on the company and think the potential growth prospects for the company are huge, however I am worried about SNCI's ability to further penetrate its markets.

This excerpt from an article on yahoo highlights a huge risk here, the Company's ability to increase market share versus bigger, more established players even though SNCI has a better (and more expensive) product:
"The guys who are bigger than us - in my humble opinion - don't have great technology," Raguskus said. "But they have very powerful distribution, they have good customer relations, good marketing. They've taken very good care of their customers for many years."
So Raguskus keeps preaching the gospel of technology. He's quick to point out that Sonic is the only company with clinically proven results that show its hearing aids improve speech understanding in the presence of background noise.

So SNCI's technology is superior, however that doesn't necessarily imply that it will succeed in the long run. Can either of you please give your thoughts on the expected direction of the stock in the short-term and the long-term prospects for the Company? also, i saw that you both got in around $11 and the stock is currently in the low $10s. what do you think is a good entry point? thanks.

[stenzrob]

please give your thoughts on the expected direction of the stock in the short-term and the long-term prospects for the Company? also, i saw that you both got in around $11 and the stock is currently in the low $10s. what do you think is a good entry point? thanks.I thought $11 was a good entry point. Short-term is anybody's guess and I won't hazard a guess.

This is what I'm looking at - revenue was 57M in FY'01, 68M in FY'02, 88M in FY'03 and recent guidance from the company is for over 100M in FY'04. So annual revenue growth varies from 15 to 30%. Can they penetrate the market and gain share in the face of their more well-established competition? Apparently so. Since they are just now breaking into being consistently profitable, earnings should grow much faster than revenues for the next several years. In fact, estimates are for going from essentially breakeven in FY'03 to 0.28 in FY'04 and 0.40 in FY'05. At $10, the PE on the estimated FY'04 earnings is only 35. Pretty reasonable. Price/sales ratio is around 2.5, also very reasonable.

Now about the stock itself. In January, it broke through to new multi-year high on much higher than average volume. Some retrace and/or volatility is to be expected. See this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=snci,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
Also, institutional ownership is about 35%. That's a sweet spot - not so small as to be unrecognized, not so much so that the only institutional activity would be selling.

Long term, I believe SNCI could go to $20 or more in six to twelve months, or I wouldn't be holding it.

[stocks54]

Hello Stenz,

Do you think HBIO is a good buy at $8.50 or do you expect it might go down a bit?

Regards,

[FundaMental1]

Stenzrob,

Thanks for the info, I always appreciate well thought out responses. A 35x PE seems reasonable for a company that is rapidly ramping up its EPS numbers, but my only concern is that it is a forward PE and investors may not give the Company credit for much more than that multiple (until of course the company reports another quarter or two of great earnings/top line growth). I agree though, that this could be a $20 stock in a year if they continue to execute, i guess it's all about april 27th and their next earnings release. Do you have any thoughts about the next earnings release, it always makes me nervous to buy so close to earnings? Thanks.

[tokyojoeskid]

You could probably get to the 7.75-8 range before it starts another run up to 10. Seems like its stuck in a rut, easy money? who knows good luck
tjk

[stocks54]

Thanks tokyojoeskid,

I have been riding it up and down for last couple of months and looks like a good strategy would be to hold core position and trade extra position...Like Stenz suggested....

Thanks,

[stenzrob]

Do you think HBIO is a good buy at $8.50 or do you expect it might go down a bit?
After selling the last of my short term HBIO at over $10, I entered a limit order to get some back again at $8.50, which filled today. I picked that number earlier this week because it was the top of the $8-$8.50 range it had been stuck in for a week during the weakness last month. Glad to have those extra shares back.

I had also lightened up on WITS at $14, and a limit order at $12 replenished those shares today, too.

[stenzrob]

... looks like a good strategy would be to hold core position and trade extra position...Like Stenz suggested....
I learned that from wormsmall, who dropped by here briefly a few months ago - just giving credit where it is due.

[stenzrob]

A 35x PE seems reasonable for a company that is rapidly ramping up its EPS numbers, but my only concern is that it is a forward PE and investors may not give the Company credit for much more than that multiple. That's exactly why valuation is only part of the story, and to gauge sentiment, all we have to go on is technicals.

Do you have any thoughts about the next earnings release, it always makes me nervous to buy so close to earnings? Thanks.I have no real thoughts about the next earnings release, and you should always be nervous about them. I have held through earnings on many stocks - been pleasantly rewarded by gaps up on some, beaten with a stick on others (see LENS for one of my wrongest and most painful guesses).

[stocks54]

... looks like a good strategy would be to hold core position and trade extra position...Like Stenz suggested....
I learned that from wormsmall, who dropped by here briefly a few months ago - just giving credit where it is due.

wormsmall, stenzorb ----- thank you both. SNCI looks good as well

[stocks54]

Hello Stenzrob,

Of all you holding do you for see anyone will have similar pattern as TRCI. I did not buy TRCI but it sure was fun to see it ride up and down... will definately like to capitalize on any opportunity like that.....

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Of all you holding do you for see anyone will have similar pattern as TRCI. I did not buy TRCI but it sure was fun to see it ride up and down... will definately like to capitalize on any opportunity like that.....I would love it if more of my holdings behaved like that one did. That was a LOT of fun!

How did I select it? By using my screen for high revenue growth, reasonable valuation, and good relative strength with increasing volume. Look at a one year chart, better yet a two year chart - what did TRCI look like back then?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=trci,uu[h,a]daolyiay[de][pc50!d20,2.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
Under $5, volume seldom over 100k until it was approaching and then breaking through $5. Repeated bounces off the 50 day ema all the way from $2 to $20.

Looking at my current holdings and my current gain/loss position in them, it's probably a little hard to believe that they look now like TRCI did a year or more ago, but they do (in various stages).

PDEX - I bought this at $3, and it's close to $2 now.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=pdex,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
But, look at the volume that drove it to $2, then to $3, compared to the volume it's been dropping on. Look at a three year weekly chart -
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=pdex,uu[h,a]waolyiay[df][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
This is what TRCI was doing a year ago. (Sort of - one difference is that TRCI had a multi-year base.)

Look at the fundamentals - nearly 30% revenue growth, no debt, PE is 35, p/s is 1.35. This is where TRCI was a year ago. The revenue growth continued, and the p/s went to 5. Makes for huge gains.

Look at institutional ownership. TRCI is currently showing 29% inst. ownership, at 1,645,663 shares, an increase of 1,236,160 during the quarter ended 12/31/03, with a lot of new holders. So up to last September, inst ownership was less than 10%. As I've said here before, if institutional ownership is low, pretty much the only thing that institutions can do is buy. Current institutional ownership in PDEX? only 5%, and that's an increase from the previous quarter.

It is left as an exercise for the reader to do similar comparisons for my other holdings - some will look very similar, some less so. SNCI also looks very good to me. Some will be turned off by the high PE, but as I've said before, PE is useless as a company is breaking through to profitability - look at revenue growth, gross margin, and price/sales for a better handle on valuation.

Using this selection criteria, some stocks will have HUGE returns like TRCI, some more quickly than others, and some will go nowhere. Last year, I had returns of over 100% on several stocks, and some that I gave up on too soon (like GORX and MTEX) went on to score that well without me. I am convinced that my selection criteria works very well on a statistical basis - a large percentage of the picks go on to very large gains, eventually, IF nothing goes wrong with their execution. QVDX slipped up on execution but I escaped before the shit hit the fan, LENS slipped up on execution, and was my largest loss last year.

The other important point about my incredible profits in TRCI is that I did not sell the original $6 position at a 15% profit, or even at 150%, but held until my price/sales target was reached, which also coincided with an earnings report that showed a deceleration in revenue growth.

[stocks54]

Thanks Stenzrob,

I have core position in PDEX. I will be adding additional position now and then when opportunity arises....

Regards,

[stenzrob]

HSKA also looks very similar to PDEX. In fact, the three year charts are almost identical.

By the way, as Ernie knows, my method is derived from reading several articles by Kevin Kennedy, aka Coolcat. I believe his method is almost entirely technical, looking for high relative strength and new highs on high volume, with a buy point on lower volume pullbacks of 25 to 30%. Something like that. I added to that my revenue growth, financial stability and valuation criteria to give me a warm fuzzy, and to provide a reason for the price strength. I also play around with other criteria. The question was raised earlier here about my 6 month RSI criteria being higher than the 3 month - and the answer is that the pullbacks tend to kill the shorter term RSI. So unless I made a note of those stocks before the pullback knocked them off the list, I would be unaware of them at exactly the time when I should be looking at them.

The one thing that stuck with me from those articles though, was the very basic concept of looking for common characteristics of stocks that made the biggest gains in the previous year and then using that to try to identify the next ones. (Ernie follows the same kind of process to identify stocks with a very high probability of returning 15% in four to six weeks. The process is very similar, but the objective of the search is different. This is why my picks and Ernie's are seldom the same) When I first read those articles about a year ago, a few of the examples used for the year prior were SOHU and NTES. And what have those two done this year? - nothing much. The reason I mention this again now is that it is perfectly appropriate for us to look back at TRCI, what made me select it and what convinced me to sell it. I continuously revisit my past trades, successful and not, to try to learn from them. Constantly asking myself, what did I miss about stocks that did poorly, why did I sell that other one too early, why, why, why? Not because I'm beating myself up over them or suffering from investor angst, but to learn. I've only been doing this since January 2000, so what I've mostly learned is fear, though last year was an exercise in balancing the fear with the greed.

regards ... stenz

[stocks54]

Thanks Stenzrob,

I agree...reviewing the previous transaction would give better understanding.

It’s the part were you need patience that kills me…. like most I want the stock to shoot up quickly….I hope I can control that emotion…

Regards,
Dev

[tokyojoeskid]

hey stenz did yahoo take our posts off the hbio board, for some reason i swear i posted something about ah and you replied and i just looked at the board a second ago and they are both gone???
hmmm
might just be my old computer playing tricks on me
tjk

[stenzrob]

hey stenz did yahoo take our posts off the hbio board, for some reason i swear i posted something about ah and you replied and i just looked at the board a second ago and they are both gone???
hmmm
might just be my old computer playing tricks on me
tjkStill there for me. Your post #1500, my reply #1501.

[tokyojoeskid]

man snci is getting rocked, i didnt take a big postion but this hurts. Stenz are you going to hold your entire postion through earnings or take some off the table??
tjk

[stenzrob]

man snci is getting rocked, i didnt take a big postion but this hurts. Stenz are you going to hold your entire postion through earnings or take some off the table??
tjkHolding SNCI. Checked revenue and earnings growth and estimates, checked price/sales, checked guidance, I see no reason to take any off the table. If revenue and earnings meet my targets, I'll be looking to add.

I bought some LINK this morning. Looks like an opportunity to me.

[stenzrob]

Holding SNCI. Checked revenue and earnings growth and estimates, checked price/sales, checked guidance, I see no reason to take any off the table. If revenue and earnings meet my targets, I'll be looking to add.
Just added some SNCI at $8.41. Gap closure? No fear ...

[ChrisZXWJ]

hey stenz...my computer crashed (again) and I lost the bookmark to the screener...could you be so kind as to post it again, please? :)

Ps...I was unable to do any backtesting on the screener as my school's financial databases wern't capable of doing it. Nothing like paying $80,000 for a useless database.

[stenzrob]

hey stenz...my computer crashed (again) and I lost the bookmark to the screener...could you be so kind as to post it again, please? :)

Ps...I was unable to do any backtesting on the screener as my school's financial databases wern't capable of doing it. Nothing like paying $80,000 for a useless database.Here's what I'm currently using: http://tinyurl.com/28b2e

Too bad about the backtesting, I was really looking forward to the results.

[stocks54]

Stenz,

I missed 15% ON SNCI. I had a buy order at $8.00. Missed it.... I am seriously getting tired of HBIO...it's going nowhere...The day I sell I will see 20 % jump......

Regards,

[tokyojoeskid]

Play the stock like stenz and I have been doing if your tired of the stock. Hbio seems to be trading in quite a predictable range goes to 8-8.50 up to 9.7-10.50. I still like Hbio in the long run, if you dont like it sell it and never look back
tjk

[stenzrob]

Just sold half my WITS again, for $14.05. Bought this chunk for $12 about a week ago. Still holding the original position bought at $11. If it drops to the bottom of the range or the 50 day, I'll pick it up again. If it breaks out, I've still got a decent position.

Since you mentioned HBIO - After having been WAY overweighted in this a while ago and unloading it on the way up the last runup as I discussed before, I'm back down to only the original position bought at $6 a very long time ago (September). Expecting the Q1 report sometime soon, that will tell me whether to give it up and move on or continue trading it.

It just seems to be getting harder for anything to run in this market, anything I've bought recently that appeared to be at support levels has broken down and I'm just sitting on them - SNCI, HSKA, LINK, etc. QUIN was looking real good, then they announced a secondary and killed the momentum. I'm sitting on about 30% cash at this point, and wishing it was more, but I just don't feel like flushing any of my positions away.

[lindsayleeds]

If anyone is listening, I strongly suggest you enter PRZ tomorrow morning with any cash you have. The conference call today was just amazing. They are on track for $.30 EPS this year and forecast revenue and earnings growth of 50% for the next five years. Stock is just $2.95 a share right now.

I will be posting again saying "I told you so" when this puppy reaches $6 which will be before the year ends.

Selling some of my parents' PDEX tomorrow to buy them more PRZ. Since my personal portfolio is already 80% PRZ...

This management team is amazing. Go to http://www.paincareholdings.com/ and hear the conference call.

Speak up and tell me anything you don't like about this company. I am ready to answer any and all questions.

[stocks54]

Thanks guys,

I propably got tired because I could not time my entries properly. Picked up HBIO at $8.60. If HBIO follows it's regular course will sell the same for quick 15%. I have been holding HSKA and it's definately not going anywere... it could be that overall market is in sell mode..will wait and watch. I still have to learn how to time {to some extent} my buy and sell....

thanks for your views/suggestions

Regards,

[ChrisZXWJ]

If anyone is listening, I strongly suggest you enter PRZ tomorrow morning with any cash you have. The conference call today was just amazing. They are on track for $.30 EPS this year and forecast revenue and earnings growth of 50% for the next five years. Stock is just $2.95 a share right now.

I will be posting again saying "I told you so" when this puppy reaches $6 which will be before the year ends.

Selling some of my parents' PDEX tomorrow to buy them more PRZ. Since my personal portfolio is already 80% PRZ...

This management team is amazing. Go to http://www.paincareholdings.com/ and hear the conference call.

Speak up and tell me anything you don't like about this company. I am ready to answer any and all questions.


Tell me what this means (from the yahoo board)...I don't quite follow:

The .30 projection is based on dilution if the stock price were to remain at $2.95 the remainder of the year. If the stock price goes up, the .30 projection goes up, and if down, dilution goes higher and the projection goes down.

[lindsayleeds]

Tell me what this means (from the yahoo board)...I don't quite follow:

The .30 projection is based on dilution if the stock price were to remain at $2.95 the remainder of the year. If the stock price goes up, the .30 projection goes up, and if down, dilution goes higher and the projection goes down.

For instance, they are buying three practices in the next three weeks for $7 million cash and $7 million stock. If the stock price is $3, they issue 2.33 million shares to buy the practices. If the stock price is $4, they issue 1.75 million shares to buy the practices. The lower amount of shares issued would mean less dilution and a higher EPS. It won't be a large effect, but it could swing it a couple pennies +/- .30.

If you have $9 million / 36 million avg shares out, you get .25 EPS.
If you have $9 million / 30 million avg shares out, you get .30 EPS.
If you have $9 million / 27 million avg shares out, you get .33 EPS.

The effect of a higher share price on dilution would probably only be 1 million shares difference max. So the resulting difference would be much less pronounced than above.

[Mi6op]

How many of you guys here hold HSKA besides Sten and myself? Wish I had more money to put in to this stock right now.

Stenz what kind of time frame do you put on it to start moving upward again? This is one stock that I'm down in but not worrying though, as they report strong numbers and of all the Vets I've consulted about this stock have nothing but positive things to say about it.

[vgbansal]

Stenz,
Any thoughts on these two???
Regards

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
Any thoughts on these two???
RegardsI basically like both of them (VLGC and CPTV, for those who don't read the subject line), and have owned them in the past. I continue to watch for any significant developments, I would be willing to buy either of them again at some point.

[Websman]

I'm croosing my fingers on snci. It's good to see it making a comeback, especially since I bought in at $9.38.

Any thoughts on where it may go next. I would be nice to make a profit for a change. This market has put a hurtn' on me the last few months....

[bigheart_md]

HSKA is oversold!
I just read the earning release again and it looks very good to me. I don't see the reason for the drop in the stock price.
Small and micro cap stocks tend to drop harder when the market goes south. They will follow shortly after the generals turn up first. This is the
only thing I can see.

"We are pleased to once again report a record quarter to our shareholders," said Robert Grieve, Heska's Chairman and CEO. "2003 was clearly Heska's best year as a public company with record revenues, gross margin on product sales and our lowest net loss since our 1997 IPO. We are excited about our potential to improve on this performance in 2004."


The CFO purchased at $2.88 at the end of Feb.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HSKA

[Mi6op]

I think I'm going to throw some money at these high $1 levels that will significantly lower my position. Its almost like stealing

[stenzrob]

FYI - I dumped PDEX for a 30% loss today. Put this one in the lessons learned column. Revenue growth reversed, nothing left but promises for the future, and I just don't gamble when the price is goiung down.

Did I mention that I bought some PHMD yesterday? The price/sales is above my usual threshold, but the prospects for high revenue growth seem pretty good. I think I may be starting to lose my discipline, need to go meditate...

[stenzrob]

Another one bites the dust.
HBIO posts disappointing earnings.
This will be hit, hard. Expect it to open below $8 and head quickly to $7.50 or less.
Easy come, easy go.

Very glad that I lightened up on this one a while back.
All I have left at this point is my original $6 position.

[stocks54]

I added PDEX and HBIO few days back with intention of trading them ---- now I probably will not have to look at both the stocks for some time... My portfolio is definately not liking the current market trend.....

I guess it's time for more patience and re-evaluation.....

[Websman]

Don't feel bad. A lot of us are getting hit.

I'm up on SNCI, but that's it so far.

I'm looking at DHB right now. The earnings was out of sight. It should do very well...I think. The market is hard to go against.

[tokyojoeskid]

HBIO
Burned again, first qvdx now hbio what is the deal were the numbers really that bad. Stenz whatcha gonna do
tjk

[ChrisZXWJ]

I think he bought more...judging by his posts on yahoo. I actually sold the other day because I was bored with it and I'm far too lazy to trade...but I also have an order in at 5 to get my original shares back and then some. Seems way overblown to me...

[stenzrob]

Yeah, I bought a little more HBIO down here. If you remember, I had escaped the carnage on QVDX. I had also lightened up on HBIO, so I'm not doing as bad as some of my picks would indicate.

I think the reaction to HBIO results is way overdone. I was disappointed in the results, and the long term momentum will be dead for a while, so I will probably get out of it altogether in the not-too-distant future, but first I'll see if I can play any bounce to milk a few bucks out of it.

This is a dangerous game, for sure.

[MEA_1956]

Do I detect a little fear in this post or am I not reading this correctly.

[IIC]

Stenz...Just curious...Do you still hold WITS? Maybe you posted but I must have missed it. I held through the big drop...It is my largest holding...Best, IIC

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz...Just curious...Do you still hold WITS? Maybe you posted but I must have missed it. I held through the big drop...It is my largest holding...Best, IIC

now I'm curious, what big drop? I'm sitting on 22% with room to ride (in my opinion). Right now, I think it's the best thing in my portfolio...granted, I'm something like 60% cash right now ;)

[IIC]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wits

It was at 10.46 Intraday not to long ago

[ChrisZXWJ]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wits

It was at 10.46 Intraday not to long ago

so it was, but you're up now, no? either way, I personally feel it's one of the stronger Stenz stocks right now. I like the way it's held up to the overall market.

[IIC]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wits

It was at 10.46 Intraday not to long ago

so it was, but you're up now, no? either way, I personally feel it's one of the stronger Stenz stocks right now. I like the way it's held up to the overall market.

I'm not up right now...BOT in the 14's...but I like it Intermediate Term and possibly Long Term. The technicals don't look all that great right now...but I attribute that to the market:
http://trimurl.com/G

[stenzrob]

The technicals don't look all that great right now...but I attribute that to the market:
http://trimurl.com/GI'm still holding my core position in WITS, absolutely. I actually like the technicals - trend is still up, average volume still increasing, consistently moves up from moving average with volume. This is my holding that has performed the best over the last few months.

[stenzrob]

Bought some AUO today for $21.25.
Added to SNCI position at $8.30.

Had been at almost 40% cash, now down to 10% cash.
Counting on the market turning back around soon.
We'll see ...

[stenzrob]

I continue to be amazed at the hapless misfortunes that continue to befall two of my former picks, LENS and QVDX.

QVDX was in an uptrend for most of 2003 and the first couple of months of 2004. All available info showed rising revenues, the CEO was winning awards for leadership, etc. This was once my largest position and I felt pretty good about it, but I sold for a nice gain when it appeared that the uptrend was failing. That was at $5.31. Since then, they said they'd have to restate, the CEO has resigned, the SEC is investigating, and the price is now $1.29.

LENS also turned into a disaster. I sold for a loss when they missed estimates. That was at $10. Then they guided down, senior execs have left, the company is in turmoil, and the price is now $2.68.

As far as I know, there was absolutely no way to have anticipated either of these train wrecks, just as there was no way to have anticipated such a severe selloff in HBIO for slightly lackluster performance in some divisions in one quarter. I am hoping that HBIO doesn't turn into another QVDX or LENS. No fear, no regrets, I only review these cases as proof of the wisdom of diversification. Also, that one can only learn from mistakes if they admit they are mistakes.

regards ... stenz

[ridemhigher]

Stenz,
Any opinion on an old choice of yours, GORX? It is looking good to me so I bought in yesterday with a fraction of my MGPI profits. Also took a position in VTIV ... this one came up in my MM screens. Any opinion on that one?

TIA,
ridemhigher

[stenzrob]

No opinion on VTIV. GORX may actually be a timely choice, since Krispy Kreme recently said that the popularity of low-carb diets was affecting their results, and this is one of GORX's specialities.

[stenzrob]

Bought some AUO today for $21.25.
Added to SNCI position at $8.30.

Had been at almost 40% cash, now down to 10% cash.
Counting on the market turning back around soon.
We'll see ...Added to WITS position yesterday. Now essentially 100% invested.

[Mi6op]

Hey Stenz, did I read that right that the stock has plumeted to $2.50 on news of Ira and Sr. Mgmt's leaving the company? That doesn't make sense to me as the management for that company is probably the worst I'll see in my lifetime right behind Kozlowski. They stuffed shirts paid themselves salaries ranging from 3.5 million down and did nothing to benefit the company and their golden parachutes just weighed down earnings as well.

Glad I got out a long time ago as well. What a mess.

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, did I read that right that the stock has plumeted to $2.50 on news of Ira and Sr. Mgmt's leaving the company? That doesn't make sense to me as the management for that company is probably the worst I'll see in my lifetime right behind Kozlowski. They stuffed shirts paid themselves salaries ranging from 3.5 million down and did nothing to benefit the company and their golden parachutes just weighed down earnings as well.

Glad I got out a long time ago as well. What a mess.Mi6, I had not seen that news, but you're absolutely right about it being a mess, and about the management team.

[stenzrob]

I've just been going back over my portfolio, revisiting revenue and earnings growth, valuations, etc. and AUO is sticking out like a sore thumb as being undervalued and going places, even compared to some of my other holdings that I also feel very good about. It's also the largest cap stock I think I've ever directly held. If someone sees something I don't, please point out my error.

Revenue growth: Sales in the last quarter were up 138% over the year ago quarter, and this was not some one-time deal, this was a steady quarter by quarter ramp from $0.5 billion to $1.25 billion on increasing sales of large HDTV flatscreens. More ridiculous growth is forecast, like "low-teen" sequential. Does anybody think the market for flat widescreen HDTV and computer monitors is saturated, or even close to it? How about the market for LCD monitors in cars, planes, and trains worldwide?

Earnings growth has been even more ridiculous, but will be moderated during the coming year due to $11.8 billion investment in next generation manufacturing plant. Gross margin is 49%, return on equity and return on capital both over 20%. Debt is pretty low for a manufacturing operation of this magnitude, but with profits flowing in by the billions, I'm not really surprised. Barriers to entry? How many companies can shell out $11.8 billion for a manufacturing plant?

Valuation: Given this kind of growth, what the heck is the PE ratio doing at 11.2, price/sales at 2.44, and price/book at 3.39?

Institutional ownership is only around 10% so there's plenty of room for more big buying. Insiders own 30%, so they are highly motivated.

Warning: Volatility due to being Taiwan based. Every time the mainland says something belligerent about Taiwan, I would expect a setback. Currency exchange rates are also reflective of the geopolitics.

Average daily volume ratcheted up a notch at the beginning of the year driving it past $15 to almost $30 before backpedaling to $20. Looking at this from a $$$M_M$$$ perspective, the stock is up about 300% since last June, earnings are positive and growing, yet the PE ration is 11.2.

I bought AUO for $21.25 on May 13. Four to six weeks out, I have no idea where this will be. If this works out as I'd like, I will start trading half my position when it hits $50 before the end of the year. Everybody here knows I'm no TA expert, but it looks to me like the MACD and stochastics and recent push back through the 50 day average are pointing to a nice run if the market sentiment doesn't turn sour. As good as I feel about this one, it is still 20% of a well-balanced basket of five stocks in my non-IRA account, which also includes a few really wacky hard-to-justify speculations.

[ChrisZXWJ]

which also includes a few really wacky hard-to-justify speculations.

which ones? I like wacky, hard-to-justify speculations.

Oh, and I also really like AUO too, I think it's just gotten less exposure from being foreign and the relatively crappy overall market. I had a limit order in at 20 and I was very very very lucky to get it at 19 the other day on the open. 50 sounds good to me too...

[IamOrion]

Stenz,

I started looking at AUO, back when IMOS was on one of your scans. I owned it from about 14 to 19 and then again from about 20 to 24. Coming from a chart stand point its looking real good. I don't really get into the channels and that stuff, but the CCI is about cross over the zero line and the MACD is about to crossover as well. Also, on my chart it crossed and closed over the 50dma. Seems technically all signs point to a go. I jumped back in at 20 ish, before it bottomed at 18 ish. Hopefully we run from here.

Good Luck

[stenzrob]

Orion, Thanks for the input on this.
AUO was one of those that showed up on my screen and I watched it go up without me. When it had the pullback, I tried to be patient, but also bought around 20-ish before it bottomed at 18-ish. Our 20 something entrance could look very well-timed on any time scale longer than a week or two.
regards ... stenz

[IamOrion]

Was AUO, on your screen when IMOS was? I don't remember seeing in on there, maybe it was after IMOS had popped up.

[grebnet]

AUO was my pick for the NCAA basketball tourney........Bought it 3/9/04 at 18.71 , but sold too soon for miniscule profit................ :x

[noshadyldy]

which also includes a few really wacky hard-to-justify speculations.

which ones? I like wacky, hard-to-justify speculations.

Oh, and I also really like AUO too, I think it's just gotten less exposure from being foreign and the relatively crappy overall market. I had a limit order in at 20 and I was very very very lucky to get it at 19 the other day on the open. 50 sounds good to me too...



I'm for wacky too! And hard-to-justify??? Hey, right up my street on that one! Do tell, Mr. Stenz.

:D Margie

[stenzrob]

Wacky and hard-to-justify:

BRHI: Never profitable, low revenues. Recently transitioned from development stage to commercial, and has great partnerships and already installing systems for both GM and Ford.

SDGL: Can' decide what business they're in. All the PR is about biometrics and secure shipping, but most of their revenue is from multimedia production. Reporting this morning.

[noshadyldy]

Wacky and hard-to-justify:

BRHI: Never profitable, low revenues. Recently transitioned from development stage to commercial, and has great partnerships and already installing systems for both GM and Ford.

SDGL: Can' decide what business they're in. All the PR is about biometrics and secure shipping, but most of their revenue is from multimedia production. Reporting this morning.


Y U C K ! ! ! ! those ARE wacky and hard-to-justify. hahahha :lol: (only teasing, haven't even looked at them yet.) Thanks Stenz.
Margie

[stenzrob]

Dumped QUIN for a loss. With 3M shares at $10.50 in the secondary offering, this could be stuck for a while. Bought some APTI at $12.41 to replace it. I've liked APTI for years, since I was doing some high power RF design, and the lead times for their stuff, which was the only suitable stuff, were long. Recently revised guidance up, forward PE is much lower than their projected growth rate.

Largest positions are now WITS, AUO, and APTI.

[stenzrob]

I was confused today by AUO, but I think I've got it figured out now. Some charts showed it up, some down for the day. There was a stock and cash dividend for which the cutoff was yesterday. Stock dividend was essentially a small split, 50 shares for each 1,000 already owned. Some charting sites didn't account for this properly. Plus, a cash dividend of NT$1,200 for each 1,000 Taiwan shares owned, but AUO is an ADR, each AUO share is 10 shares of the Taiwan stock. NT$1,200 = US$35.85 on each $2250 worth of stock, or about 1.6%.

PHMD had a nice bounce off the 50 day average thanks to a buying flurry in the last five minutes. Technically, I think this looks very nice now. But, what do I know about technicals? Not much.

[jesloc25]

Can i ask what is your cost bases for your top three holdings.

thanks.

[stenzrob]

Can i ask what is your cost bases for your top three holdings.

thanks.
AUO bought at $21.25, but with the recent stock dividend, cost basis is $20.24

WITS first bought at $11, additional in low 13's, total cost basis $12.16

APTI at $12.41

[ChrisZXWJ]

I was confused today by AUO, but I think I've got it figured out now. Some charts showed it up, some down for the day. There was a stock and cash dividend for which the cutoff was yesterday. Stock dividend was essentially a small split, 50 shares for each 1,000 already owned. Some charting sites didn't account for this properly. Plus, a cash dividend of NT$1,200 for each 1,000 Taiwan shares owned, but AUO is an ADR, each AUO share is 10 shares of the Taiwan stock. NT$1,200 = US$35.85 on each $2250 worth of stock, or about 1.6%.

PHMD had a nice bounce off the 50 day average thanks to a buying flurry in the last five minutes. Technically, I think this looks very nice now. But, what do I know about technicals? Not much.

so that still leaves me confused. I was actually looking to double up on my AUO on a pullback...this really isn't a pullback, right? Any idea when shares/cash will post to our accounts?

[stenzrob]

so that still leaves me confused. I was actually looking to double up on my AUO on a pullback...this really isn't a pullback, right? Any idea when shares/cash will post to our accounts?
No idea when shares/cash will be posted to our accounts. As far as a pullback, I found that intraday charts at cbs marketwatch are not accurate, but the daily charts are. Also, the charts at stockcharts were properly adjusted.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=auo,uu[h,a]daolyiay[dc][pc50!d20,2!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G

[IamOrion]

I sold my auo today, the chart started to turn bearish to me. I locked in the small profits I had and will wait for re entry. I still really like the company, but I we may be able to get it back under 19.00. JMO. Good luck

Orion

[ChrisZXWJ]

I sold my auo today, the chart started to turn bearish to me. I locked in the small profits I had and will wait for re entry. I still really like the company, but I we may be able to get it back under 19.00. JMO. Good luck

Orion

now I'm really confused, how could today's action be considered negative if it was just an adjustment for the stock dividend? Wanna explain Stenz?

[stenzrob]

I sold my auo today, the chart started to turn bearish to me. I locked in the small profits I had and will wait for re entry. I still really like the company, but I we may be able to get it back under 19.00. JMO. Good luck

Orion

now I'm really confused, how could today's action be considered negative if it was just an adjustment for the stock dividend? Wanna explain Stenz?The action today is not an adjustment.

The stock dividend should be viewed like a stock split. In the case of a 2:1 stock split, for example, the stock closes one day at say $20, and opens the next day at $10, but you've got twice as many of them. All charts are adjusted to show split-adjusted prices, showing it closed at $10 and opened at $10. In the case of AUO, the adjustment is 5%, it's basically a 105:100 split. You can kind of see how this works (if they haven't fixed it yet) by looking at a 10 day intraday chart at cbs marketwatch, then at a one month daily chart.

Looking at the intraday chart, AUO reached almost $24 on Wednesday the 26th. Since the ex-dividend date is the 27th, the 1/1.05 adjustment should be made on the 27th to all historical prices before the 27th. So, the peak price on the 26th would be just under $24/1.05 or about $22.85. If you look at a 1 month daily chart at the same site, or at stckcharts, that's exactly what you'll see. So, the adjustment is already shown in most charts.

On the 27th, the price closed lower than it opened, and it dropped again today. This could be considered "turning bearish", I suppose. The way I figure it is this: Since I bought AUO at $21.25, my position is up 5% if the price returns to $21.25 since I now have 5% more shares than I did before the stock dividend. Plus, there was a cash dividend of about 1.6%. The trick is, neither the cash nor the shares have shown up in my brokerage account yet. Let's say I have 200 shares, and 10 more to be awarded due to the stock dividend. I should be able to sell the 200 shares right now for a small profit, and sometime soon, the cash dividend should be posted to my account, and also 10 new shares.

Personally, I don't see the logic in a 5% stock dividend. It messes up everyones bookkeeping and causes confusion. The number of shares outstanding increases, so all estimated EPS have to be recalculated. I understand the rationale for splits, but this is just an annoyance, IMHO.

Hope that helps ... stenz

[jesloc25]

Thanks for your cost basis and all the info you share!!!!

[IamOrion]

Stenz,
Nice little boost in WITS today, I have been watching it on and off. Do you think this could be the next leg up and maybe a new high coming? The chart looks real good. Too bad I missed this one. Any price target in mind?

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
Nice little boost in WITS today, I have been watching it on and off. Do you think this could be the next leg up and maybe a new high coming? The chart looks real good. Too bad I missed this one. Any price target in mind?My target is around $30, but I will watch for any fundamental or technical developments.

[IIC]

Stenz,
Nice little boost in WITS today, I have been watching it on and off. Do you think this could be the next leg up and maybe a new high coming? The chart looks real good. Too bad I missed this one. Any price target in mind?My target is around $30, but I will watch for any fundamental or technical developments.

I added on the pullback

[stenzrob]

Volatile day for WITS.
APTI looking good, also PHMD still ripening for a breakout, IMHO.

[ChrisZXWJ]

I added on the pullback

me too...doubled up at 13 just now.

[stenzrob]

Well, at least it wasn't just another dull day for WITS.
The WITS message board used to have about a dozen messages a week, today it was a dozen every ten minutes.

Set a new 3 year high on very heavy volume in the first half hour then got whacked repeatedly over the course of the day. The last time it acted like this was back in January settling at $9, just before making a move up.

This will be fun to watch, especially as this is still my largest holding.

[Websman]

I added on the pullback

me too...doubled up at 13 just now.

This is what I've been waiting for. :shock: I'm in, first thing in the morning...

[IIC]

I added on the pullback

me too...doubled up at 13 just now.

This is what I've been waiting for. :shock: I'm in, first thing in the morning...

Make it a LARGE buy...we could use a boost here

[IamOrion]

With the volume being as high as its ever been and then selling off, what do you make of that? Seems like there may be some manipulation going on here. I was going to take a postition today, but all the short term chart indicators point to it poss. going lower. Any thoughts on the volitility?

[stenzrob]

With the volume being as high as its ever been and then selling off, what do you make of that? Seems like there may be some manipulation going on here. I was going to take a postition today, but all the short term chart indicators point to it poss. going lower. Any thoughts on the volitility?All that volume on a day when it set a new 3 year high, and all the trash talking on the message board (indicating a possible short attack), and all it did was fill a gap from April?
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=wits,uu[h,a]daolyiay[db][pc50!a12.5!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G
There may be some manipulation going on, and it may also have something to do with the registration of additional shares a few months ago. That kind of stuff is beyond my understanding.

[Websman]

I'm officially in now. I love the trash talk on the Yahoo board. Lot's of bashers means profits.

[stenzrob]

I'm officially in now. I love the trash talk on the Yahoo board. Lot's of bashers means profits.Don't forget to recommend my posts on the WITS board!

[Websman]

I'll go do that now!

[Websman]

Stenzrob, you are the man!

Recommending your post on Yahoo must have worked. I am now in the green on WITS! I love it when a plan comes together. Let's hope it continues this way.

[stenzrob]

Dumped QUIN for a loss. With 3M shares at $10.50 in the secondary offering, this could be stuck for a while. Bought some APTI at $12.41 to replace it. ...
Largest positions are now WITS, AUO, and APTI.APTI at another new high over $14. Anybody else liking this breakout?

[grebnet]

I'm lovin it for you. I however missed it and nowcantpull the trigger. I had a buy order on friday and didnt fill trying to get a lower price. pennies versus dollars :cry:

[IamOrion]

Grabbed a small starting positon again at 19.00.

[ChrisZXWJ]

Stenz,

Got rid of my old POS computer and got a new one...could you post your most recent screener link again? (for the 12th time)...

Thanks,
Chris

[Karel]

No doubt Stenz will oblige, but we do have a search function on this board. Click Search (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/search.php) at the top of the screen and enter "screener link". Don't forget to "Display results as:" Posts (bottom lefthand corner; otherwise you just get Stenzrob's enormously long topic), and there you are.

HTH, Karel

[ChrisZXWJ]

No doubt Stenz will oblige, but we do have a search function on this board. Click Search (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/search.php) at the top of the screen and enter "screener link". Don't forget to "Display results as:" Posts (bottom lefthand corner; otherwise you just get Stenzrob's enormously long topic), and there you are.

HTH, Karel

well that's true, but he also modifies it from time to time, so I wanted to make sure I had the most up to date Stenzian screener ;)

[stenzrob]

Here's what I'm currently using: http://tinyurl.com/28b2e

[ChrisZXWJ]

Man, it kills me to see HANS on that screen. That was one of the first stocks I ever owned (around age 14)...bought at 3 1/2 and sold at 4 1/2 and was thrilled to pieces...too bad no one ever told me about buy and hold investing :(

[MEA_1956]

Chris, my first stock was HDI, held it for three years thru the anniversary and all that hoppla, sold it for a small lose. the very next month it started its upward turn and kicken myself in the rear every time I hear the call letters. Win some and lose some and don"t want to talk about that one. It's kinda funny how you remember thos types of things. ===> MEA

[IamOrion]

Nice little rip in AUO today, I was not watching it closely and missed my chance to get more. Long with 500 at 19.00... GO AUO

[Websman]

WITS???

Could tomorrow be the beginning of the surge upward?

:?:

[IIC]

WITS???

Could tomorrow be the beginning of the surge upward?

:?:

That would make me pretty happy...I also BOT VASC today in anticipation of a big move on vol...The vol has just dried up lately...Can't tell you when that's gonna happen...but I really don't see a big risk here.

[Tsevni98]

number 1 on Stenz gross margin screen for the past couple of days, now number 4.

CHeap Price per sales, zero debt, insiders buying like crazy plus new CEO. The CEO is the best part, as he is from another successful company that was recently acquired.


Long BABY

[IamOrion]

Got stopped out of AUO. Had it at 19. This one is frustrating.

[stenzrob]

Got stopped out of AUO. Had it at 19. This one is frustrating.Agreed. I'll hang in there for a while.

[IamOrion]

Downgraded this morning.

[stenzrob]

Downgraded this morning.Oh well, it's always something. Some days I seriously consider just moving all my money into a mutual fund and forgetting about it.

[New-born baby]

Strenzrob,

Have you ever checked out the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX)? The TSX offers some oil and natural gas royalty trusts that are paying a 17%-18% dividend, of which, depending on the trust, 60% or more is tax-free.

For example, on Google search, type in Acclaim Energy Trust (AE.UN). AE.UN on the TSX sells for $9.23 per share, and the 15.4% dividend is 100% tax free this year. That beats a mutual fund, doesn't it?

I own some Paramount Energy Trust (PMT.UN on the TSX), and 22% of the 17.4% dividend is taxable, the rest is non-taxable. That beats this crummy market, doesn't it? Paramount sells for about $8.09 US per share.

How do you buy it? Very simple.
1). Type in TSX.com on google and punch in the symbol to get the Canadian price.
2) On XE.com, you can get the exchange rate, US for Canadian dollars. The rate changes minute by minute, but is currently .732728 US per C$.
3) Call your broker and have him put in an order for you at your US dollar price.
Scottrade charges $17 per broker assisted order.

You can check out the charts and historical prices for these stocks on TSX.com under their charting feature.

Here's what I own and/or consider the best ones: (check out on TSX.com)
BTE.UN 15.3% dividend ($1.80) This company's stock price is only .46 cents for every dollar of oil reserve they have in the ground! Compare Exxon Mobil whose stock price is $1.53 per every $1 reserve! Exxon only pays 27 cents on $44 share price, with not much upside in stock price.

AE.UN 15.4% dividend ($1.95) I own this one.
AY.un 18.% dividend $2.175 per share on a $11.61 stock (C$) I own this one.

NVG.UN 18% I put in an order today but not filled.
PMT.un 17.4% I own this one.

VKR.un 17% on a $4.23 stock! I am buying this one for my children.

EIT.un pays only 12.5%, but is diversified and earns $2.63 per share, dividend is only 84 cents per share.

Just something to think about when the market is flat.

The US energy trusts only pay 7%.

Another blessing: you can reinvest your dividends through the drip program and purchase new shares at 94% of the stock price. Not bad!

Best investing to you always.

[Mi6op]

I dont' understand why these dividends are any different than say mutal funds or just random stock dividends which are taxed. Please elaborate.

[New-born baby]

Mi6op,

Acclaim Energy is non-taxable under Canadian law. That is because the distributions are classified as "return of capital," and not as a dividend. The Trust functions like this: they take the money they need to run the trust, and return to share holders the excess--and you still own the shares! Would you like to see this with your own eyes? Type into Google search "Acclaim Energy." On their webpage, click on Investor Relations, and then "Distributions," and you'll see their distributions and that 100% are listed under "return of Capital" (ROC) and that 0% are listed under "Income." Acclaim, as far as I can see, has never had a taxable dividend, and they are currently paying 15.5% What's wrong with that? :D

Other trusts are currently a mixture of ROC and Taxable income. For example, I think Paramount Energy Trust is 22% taxable, 78 % non-taxable ROC this year on a 17.4% dividend. And remember, these guys pay monthly. And you can drip them at 94% of the stock price! :shock:

APF Energy Trust is 15% non-taxable, 85% taxable this year. But they pay a 19% dividend.

Want to see more? Look under "Investcom.com" On their home page look for "List all income trusts." There are some 200 of them, but I have listed the best of the best below. The worst ones pay 6%. The best ones are all paying 17-18%, much of which is tax-free.

The best: (check out the homepage of Paramount Energy Trust, get a stock quote for any/all of these on the TSX)

BTE.un
NVG.un
VKR.un
PMT.un
AE.un
AY.un
EIT.un pays "only" 12.5%, but earned $2.63 per share, and pays $.84.

Why gamble on a failed breakout?

Check out the exchange rate at XE.com. If, after you buy the shares, the dollar weakens, you gain. Greenspan/Congress/Bush is printing money. Even the Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffet, is betting the dollar drops in value. He says he sees no bargains in the US stock market. He is dealing in currencies right now.

Hope this helps. Best investing to you always, :D

[Gem]

Got stopped out of AUO. Had it at 19. This one is frustrating.Agreed. I'll hang in there for a while.

I always follow your thread and thoughts its a good idea to understand your insight into AUO

Can you / others give me a perspective from fundamental point of view on AUO. I am thinking its a good "buy" at this level. But frankly I am still trying to figure out the impact of patent case, faling LCD prices and LG IPO to decide when should I be jumping in.


Gem

[stenzrob]

It's always something. First AUO gets hit by patent thing, now SNCI has just reduced their Q2 revs and earnings estimate.

Well, at least HBIO is bouncing a bit and APTI still looks good.

[Websman]

now SNCI has just reduced their Q2 revs and earnings estimate

Now I'm glad I decided to get out of SNCI. I actually sold at break even and had wondered if I did the right thing.

I've been playing IPIX and have made some good money on it. I know it's nothing but a hyped up stock, but if it's making me money, that's all that matters. I seem to be having much better luck trading like this. The market is still a little crazy.

[stenzrob]

...now SNCI has just reduced their Q2 revs and earnings estimate.Can I pick 'em or what ?! SNCI down about 40% today on massive volume. What a freakin' disaster. Put this on the list with QVDX, LENS, and HBIO as the world's worst stock picks. Apparently, I only have "no fear" because I'm not bright enough to know any better.

[Websman]

Can I pick 'em or what ?! SNCI down about 40% today on massive volume. What a freakin' disaster. Put this on the list with QVDX, LENS, and HBIO as the world's worst stock picks. Apparently, I only have "no fear" because I'm not bright enough to know any better.

Hang in there and don't get discouraged Stenzrob. You're not the only one having bad luck. Look at the drop in NUTR today. And that's one of Mr Markets picks.

I actually just started trading this year and was down around 25%. I was getting very discouraged and even switched some of my funds into low risk mutual funds. I thought it was hopeless until I bought into IPIX and DHB. Man what a turnaround in my portfolio! If my streak continues, I will be in profit within a few days. I'm kepping a close eye on IPIX as I know it's very volatile, but I think DHB should go to at least $20.

Hey, I an amatuer and I made a comeback! A pro like you...you'll rebound in no time.

Don't beat yourself up, stay positive and you WILL win!

[stocks54]

Strenz,

I am also hit by QVDX, LENS, HBIO and now SNCI. I have bigger poisition in HSKA which is also going south....

[Indicates I am your big time follower...]

Unfortunately I didn't get into TRCI, WITS and other positions which had great profits...

you win some you lose some...

[tokyojoeskid]

Man followed you in on this one also, gosh it hurts. I got out of qvdx but am staying in hbio, I like where they are going but I think I am going to dump snci tomm. I just dont see where they are going with new products and the future looks too blurry for me. Stenz you gonna be patient with SNCI?

Check out HDWR I think this will be a good one. Good fundamentals and good technicals.

UTSI still looks like a great SAFE play, with an explosive future hopefully


TJK

[IIC]

I like to check in on this and Spikes thread for new ideas/info...Anyway, Stenz...You still holding WITS??? I am and I added at 14.00 on the failed B/O day...I don't usually consider gut feelings as a good reason to buy and/or hold a stock...I prefer technicals combined with fundies...But I have a good feeling about WITS right now.(Call me Mr. Optimistic)

I will admit though...I have a larger % of my portfolio in WITS than is prudent...But if it goes up over 16...this could be a very good year instead of the mediocre one it is(for me anyway)...Best to all...IIC

[stenzrob]

Thanks to all for the therapy session!

SNCI - Yes, I plan to be patient with this one. Even with the hit in Germany, even with the downward revision, revenue and earnings are still growing yr/yr. The only thing that bothers me is how this seems to have blindsided SNCI management. There are a couple of decent short articles out there for perspective.

WITS - Yes, I still own it. Still my largest position. But, this is one of the few times that the amount of insider selling has made me nervous. I sold my PDEX because of the sheer amount of stock that Coss had put on the market. In the case of WITS, it is several officers selling day after day after day. The good news is that the stock price has held up to it.

ANIK - This is the one of the first stocks that I bought using my screen method, bought in May 2003 for $2.35. Traded extra chunks in & out a bit and sold the last of it for $4.32 on July 31, 2003, for an 84% profit. Have not owned it since. The stock just recently cleared $15. You never know when one may hit.

[stenzrob]

I like to check in on this and Spikes thread for new ideas/info...Anyway, Stenz...You still holding WITS??? I am and I added at 14.00 on the failed B/O day...I don't usually consider gut feelings as a good reason to buy and/or hold a stock...I prefer technicals combined with fundies...But I have a good feeling about WITS right now.(Call me Mr. Optimistic)

I will admit though...I have a larger % of my portfolio in WITS than is prudent...But if it goes up over 16...this could be a very good year instead of the mediocre one it is(for me anyway)...Best to all...IIC
Just now picked up some more at $12.85.
Hope our guts are right, IIC.

[IIC]

I like to check in on this and Spikes thread for new ideas/info...Anyway, Stenz...You still holding WITS??? I am and I added at 14.00 on the failed B/O day...I don't usually consider gut feelings as a good reason to buy and/or hold a stock...I prefer technicals combined with fundies...But I have a good feeling about WITS right now.(Call me Mr. Optimistic)

I will admit though...I have a larger % of my portfolio in WITS than is prudent...But if it goes up over 16...this could be a very good year instead of the mediocre one it is(for me anyway)...Best to all...IIC
Just now picked up some more at $12.85.
Hope our guts are right, IIC.

I was tempted...but I've already averaged down once...usually not my cup of tea to do that...Will just hold...IIC

[stenzrob]

QUIN - On April 13, I bought some QUIN at $12.75. Sold it a week later on April 20 for $13.36 and a small profit, only to buy it back the next day for $12.10. Everything looked right - all my screen criteria were met, and it was advancing on high volume and falling on lower volume. Some good trading opportunities on volatility with prospects for healthy gains longer term. On April 27, the price closed at $14. After the close, earnings were released and looked good enough for continued long, but they also announced a secondary offering. Whether it was the earnings report or the secondary offering, I'll never know, but it opened the next morning at under $13 and was close to $10 a few days later. My small profits had evaporated. On May 25, they finally divulged the price of the secondary of $10.50, and of course the market price immediately went to $10.50 and has basically been there ever since. I sold at a loss at $10.42 on May 27.

APTI - I bought this on May 27 at $12.41, to replace the QUIN position. It's been up & down a bit, but I'm currently up over 7.5% at todays closing price of $13.36. Rising on high volume, falling on lower, everything in alignment for potential healthy gains. Guess what? They announced a secondary offering today at 3:26pm. I just cannot believe this. Check an intraday chart - the price was over $14 briefly, settling in at about $13.70, then the announcement came out and dropped immediately to $13.25.

Like I said, I don't know if it was the secondary or the earnings report that killed QUIN, but I'm not taking any chances this time. I just sold APTI after hours, which I seldom do, for $13.50 and just over an 8% profit. I don't know why the after-hours bid was higher than the close, and maybe I will miss a pop, but I would feel really stupid if I saw the same thing happening that had hit me before and just stood there watching it happen again.

[MEA_1956]

Do I detect a little FEAR in your last post or is that WISDOM speacking. ===> MEA

[stenzrob]

Do I detect a little FEAR in your last post or is that WISDOM speacking. ===> MEAAny number of analogies come to mind here. Let's say you don't know what a train is, or if being hit by one would hurt. You're standing on these metal rails one day and a train comes along. You think, "Hmmm, that's interesting, I wonder what it is." Whap! "Ouch" After your recovery, you're out playing on the tracks again one day, and something is coming. You're not exactly sure if it's a train or not, it looks a little different than the one that hit you before. Is it fear or wisdom that causes you to decide to step off the tracks to watch it go by?

Of course, the analogy breaks down in that there appears to be no reason to be out playing on the tracks again. Where's the benefit? If there's some reason for you to be on the tracks, some possibility of benefit, then if you give up the potential benefit by never returning to the tracks, that's fear. Staying on the tracks for as long as possible before the train comes, that's "trading without fear".

[IamOrion]

Stenz, are you still holding AUO?

[stenzrob]

Stenz, are you still holding AUO?Short answer: Yes, I am.

Long answer: I see that AUO priced a secondary offering at $16. I am really getting chewed up lately by successful and growing companies whose stock shoould continue going up issuing more stock. Just as in QUIN and APTI, it's not the dilution that bothers me, it's just the sheer weight of all those shares coming on the market. I'm very glad I jumped out of APTI ASAP when they announced their secondary. I got out at $13.50 within an hour of their announcement with an 8% profit, and the stock has now headed straight down for the last two days to below my original purchase price. One difference in AUO's case is it may have the trading volume to work it off quickly, so I will just hold on. I hereby resolve to watch more closely for filings or announcements of secondary offerings in my holdings in the future.

I also used to scoff at worries about insider selling as expressed so eloquently by some on the Yahoo message boards, until PDEX hit a wall with Coss filing a very large quantity to sell. There just wasn't the volume to absorb it and it dropped steadily and hasn't really recovered yet. He filed to sell 400,000 shares on March 8, average daily volume is below 50k. The stock was at about $2.75. I was down a little bit when it was $2.75 and lost a lot more before finally getting a clue and bailing out at $2.05 in early May. It has fallen all the way to $1.75 and rebounded slightly, and closed today at $2.05. He wasn't able to unload the whole 400k before the time expired (90 days), so has just filed again to sell 95k shares. Meanwhile, the average daily volume is now down to around 20k shares, because nobody is buying as long as this jerk keeps trying to sell way more than the market can bear. If I had been paying closer attention, I should have sold for the small loss the minute I saw a filing to sell almost ten times the average trading volume. Insiders exercise options and sell, this is part of their compensation. I understand this and I'm not opposed to it. But if they are trying to sell a significant portion of the trading volume, the market price will suffer. I resolve to watch more closely for filings by insiders to sell large quantities of stock relative to the trading volume for my positions.

I'm actually getting a little concerned about WITS in that regard. Directors, the president, chairman, senior VP's, all are selling thousands of shares a day, ever since the price cleared about $11 back in February, which is where I first bought it based on the momentum and valuation, my usual criteria. From last October to February, the price ran from from under $5 to over $11. Revenues growing like crazy, earnings moving into the positive realm, good looking chart. Then all the officers started cashing in, but there has been enough demand to have it continue up a bit more. But if these %^#$ insiders don't stop their constant unloading soon, they will manage to turn it right back around again, and I do not want to be left holding the bag. I'm actually starting to get a bit jaded about this - if they cash in at between $11 and $14 enough of their options issued when the stock was $2 or $5, not only do they get to pocket the cash, they can actually turn the stocks momentum around, causing the stock price to fall to a very undervalued level, where more options will be awarded. It's all perfectly legal. And the institutions are no dummies, they know this could happen, so they might just join in the party as well. When the price stops falling and the volume finally dries up from all the retail dupes finally giving up, they start buying again, and the cycle repeats.

Sorry, I got a bit carried away. Really, I used to laugh at these kinds of conspiracy theories. I'm really starting to wonder, though ...

[Websman]

Stenz,
I got out of wits at the same time as snci. I made a very small profit on wits and broke even on snci. As far as conspiracies and insider selling, I'm also starting to think that it makes sense.

It's looking like we've got to start changing our way of thinking and try to stay ahead of the madness in the market.

[New-born baby]

Gentlemen,

Paul's Breakout section on the IBD message board was talking about WITS just yesterday, and how they urged people to dump it more than two months ago. In any case, what about this idea: when the insiders sell, you sell too, as in short the stock. In other words, join the conspiracy. :twisted: Remember, the trend is your friend . . . . and don't argue with the market.

[jiesen]

I don't suppose they expense any of those options that are keeping this company's stock price down despite the 'positive earnings'. Of course it's not like they REALLY cost anyone any money, right? (just the investors who believed the earnings were what the option holders said they were)

[Websman]

Gentlemen,

Paul's Breakout section on the IBD message board was talking about WITS just yesterday, and how they urged people to dump it more than two months ago. In any case, what about this idea: when the insiders sell, you sell too, as in short the stock. In other words, join the conspiracy. :twisted: Remember, the trend is your friend . . . . and don't argue with the market.

so...where do we track the insiders?

[IIC]

To be honest...I'm not all that worried about what the insiders are doing...What kind of options are they getting now?

In my searches, I ran across some kind of expensive insider info site this week...but for the life of me I cannot remember the addy...Sorry

[New-born baby]

Websman,

Insider sales/buy info is available for a price. I get a service email that sends out alarms for insider buys and sales. I'll notify you the next one I get. For the life of me, I cannot remember the service's name or web address. "spy glass" something or other. I am not paying any attention to insider moves right now because I am not on any momentum plays.

I would say that Wm. O'Neil says "don't argue with the market." And when these guys dump stock, I don't argue with them either. Remember NoShyLady's post about AACE (I think that's the company she mentioned) and the insider dumps. Disaster followed quickly.

You could buy AY.un (on the Toronto Stock Exchange) for $8.75 US and get a 17.7% dividend (that's $2.175 C$ or $1.60 US) and you are paid monthly (13.333 cents US per share per month). Oh, and only 40% is taxable. It's an oil & NG trust. And you don't have to worry about insider sales because the gravy is so thick nobody wants to sell. 8)

[New-born baby]

Websman,

If you want to know what the insiders are doing, and how many shares, and at what price, the place to go is INSIDER MOVES.COM. They have a weekly newsletter for free, and for serious info, you can pay for the premium service.

The best investing to you always,

[lindsayleeds]

I'm very glad I jumped out of APTI ASAP when they announced their secondary. I got out at $13.50 within an hour of their announcement with an 8% profit, and the stock has now headed straight down for the last two days to below my original purchase price.

I agree with your sentiment about jumping out on secondaries for the most part. I jumped out of BDY immediately when they announced a secondary of 40% of their float. They dropped from $31 to $22 very quickly. Most of the time stocks go down on secondaries because investors don't trust management will use the money wisely or fear it will dilute the EPS for the next year before capital investments kick in and they are short term investors, like I am. Secondaries almost always hurt short term EPS, and introduce uncertainty about the use of the funds.

I am heavily invested in PRZ which routinely raises cash on bonds convertible to stock. The stock actually goes up when this happens, because the shareholders have seen management wisely use this capital to increase revenues 50% for every 10% dilution. So it mostly comes down to what kind of confidence do you feel the market will have in management and will the extra cash from a secondary help the EPS quickly.

Most of the time, the street has little confidence in management and I feel it is best to sell immediately on the secondary announcement and wait for the price to settle and then buy back in if you feel the company is still a good bet long term.

I own a bit of PDEX too and feel your pain. The mantra of most investors is ignore insider selling, but pay attention to significant insider buying. We need to add a new clause that says except when the planned selling is largely in excess of average daily volume. Of course realistically, most small caps I have been following/buying have been killed since January. AOBO, DAAT, etc. Then I didn't really considering buying any of LETH, but it has been slaughtered too.

Good luck with it Stenz.

[lindsayleeds]

Dumped my PDEX for $2.69 this morning. Looking at the press release and trying to decide if I want back in. Some people on Yahoo are saying they have .07 per share more cash than they did last quarter. If they are going to report earnings of .07, I definitely want back in. Anyhow, more research is needed.

[stenzrob]

Just wanted to let everyone know I'm still alive so you don't worry. The market has been going not much of anywhere, and my portfolio has just been sliding, with a few exceptions that decided to plunge rather than slide. I continue to think that most of my holdings are healthy growing companies and undervalued. Clearly, none of them have any momentum characteristic left.

Considering the gains we saw across the boards in 2003, I'm actually a little surprised at how well the averages have held up as well as they have so far in 2004.

Currently holding WITS, HSKA, LINK, HBIO, SNCI, SINT, PHMD, AUO, and my two unjustifiable picks BRHI and SDGL.

regards ... stenz

[Websman]

Good to hear from you Stenz!

I'm holding DHB and, my "wild card pick" SIRI.

DHB is looking good and SIRI is questionable.

Good luck...

[IIC]

Yeah...I was wondering where you were Stenz...I still have WITS too :cry: ...This is a real traders mkt...which is the way I prefer to invest...but due to work commitments since April I have not been able to Swing...Hopefully, things are back to normal w/ my job now...but now I need to use up 4 weeks vacation by the end of the year...Maybe I should just take some days off for trading?...Best, IIC

[IIC]

Good to hear from you Stenz!

I'm holding DHB and, my "wild card pick" SIRI.

DHB is looking good and SIRI is questionable.

Good luck...

I had to drive down to San Diego today...but I see DHB did very well on vol. today....guess it won't be filling the gap...Best of Luck on it...could be very good if it moves over 16 on vol...I like the way it has basically hugged the 20 dma...IIC

[jesloc25]

Did AUO give shares out? I have several shares in my portfolio. I cant remember the last time I owned them (so many trades ago).

It has been out of my radar, but it looks awful cheap? Good time to buy?

[ChrisZXWJ]

Did AUO give shares out? I have several shares in my portfolio. I cant remember the last time I owned them (so many trades ago).

It has been out of my radar, but it looks awful cheap? Good time to buy?

Yup...long time ago...that was actually nice to see....but after looking at the price I'm glad I sold a while ago...don't think I'd recommend buying now.

[lindsayleeds]

Did AUO give shares out? I have several shares in my portfolio. I cant remember the last time I owned them (so many trades ago).

It has been out of my radar, but it looks awful cheap? Good time to buy?

The P/E ratio of 4 is staggering. Their problem seems to be the falling price of LCD technology under increasing competition eroding profit margins. Worse than expected secondary offering recently. A friend of mine just owned them from $18 down to $13 :( Ouch!

I tend to like stocks that I am optimistic about more than stocks that just seem cheap, so I'd probably recommend you to buy something else based on that philosophy. However, if you are planning on holding for 2+ years, it looks awful tempting to pick up some at the current price.

[stenzrob]

AUO: The trailing PE is ridiculous, the forward PE even more so. The stock has clearly been sliding, Merrill Lynch downgraded them recently, but they have just announced quarterly results that exceeded expectations and still show very healthy growth and profitability.

[jesloc25]

Taking a chance here and buying some. I figure since they gave me 25 shares, and volume seems to be strong today, why not.

Bought at 11.85. I can hold on for awhile.

[stenzrob]

WITS bouncing. Just a bounce, start of renewed momentum? Anyone's guess is as good as mine.

Report yesterday was good - exceeded estimates on healthy growth, and raised fiscal year guidance.

[IIC]

Where is everyone here???

Stenz...I still got WITS...but I'll tell 'ya...This is the last time I put so much $$$ in one stock...Of course I said that about SCVL a coupla years ago too...worked out OK but too dangerous.

I have over 30% of my portfolio in WITS now...not wise...But it should work out OK this time too...IIC

[stenzrob]

Where is everyone here???

Stenz...I still got WITS...but I'll tell 'ya...This is the last time I put so much $$$ in one stock...Of course I said that about SCVL a coupla years ago too...worked out OK but too dangerous.

I have over 30% of my portfolio in WITS now...not wise...But it should work out OK this time too...IICDiversification is indeed important. I was overweighted in QVDX and escaped with a profit just before it crashed. I was overweighted in HBIO and lightened up considerably just before it crashed. Most of the time when I take the risk, I get out OK, but it's just not smart to get too much into one stock.

I think WITS will work out just fine. But I have proved time and again that I have no special knowledge.

regards ... stenz

[IIC]

Yeah...But Stenz...You may not be as good looking as me...but you can jump over buildings with a single bound or web... :lol:

Anyone on this thread ever wonder if Mel Gibson's friends tell him...."HEY MEL...You look a lot like IIC"

The converse is true...LOL

[stenzrob]

Yeah...But Stenz...You may not be as good looking as me...but you can jump over buildings with a single bound or web... :lol:
I am SO good looking that I have to wear this mask to keep from having women melt on the sidewalk when I walk by. By the way, I swing around using my cane, not a silly web.

regards ... stenz

[Websman]

Yeah...But Stenz...You may not be as good looking as me...but you can jump over buildings with a single bound or web... :lol:
I am SO good looking that I have to wear this mask to keep from having women melt on the sidewalk when I walk by. By the way, I swing around using my cane, not a silly web.

regards ... stenz

I need to find an identity....Maybe an old photo of John Belushi would do the trick. :shock:

[IIC]

Yeah...But Stenz...You may not be as good looking as me...but you can jump over buildings with a single bound or web... :lol:
I am SO good looking that I have to wear this mask to keep from having women melt on the sidewalk when I walk by. By the way, I swing around using my cane, not a silly web.

regards ... stenz

I need to find an identity....Maybe an old photo of John Belushi would do the trick. :shock:

Webs...I actually have a photo of you and John Belushi...but for the life of me...I can't tell which one's which :roll:

http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:TT_ABxqsyHgJ:www.roseberrybooks.com/me%2520and%2520skeleton.jpg

[stocks54]

Currently holding WITS, HSKA, LINK, HBIO, SNCI, SINT, PHMD, AUO, and my two unjustifiable picks BRHI and SDGL.

regards ... stenz

Hello Stenz,

Any comments on HSKA. It seems to be loosing 10 cents every week... I have seen it go from $2.68 to $1.05.

Regards,
stocks54

[Websman]

Webs...I actually have a photo of you and John Belushi...but for the life of me...I can't tell which one's which :roll:

http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:TT_ABxqsyHgJ:www.roseberrybooks.com/me%2520and%2520skeleton.jpg

I just now saw this post...

I like it! I laughed my --- off when I saw it!

[IIC]

Webs...I actually have a photo of you and John Belushi...but for the life of me...I can't tell which one's which :roll:

http://images.google.com/images?q=tbn:TT_ABxqsyHgJ:www.roseberrybooks.com/me%2520and%2520skeleton.jpg

I just now saw this post...

I like it! I laughed my --- off when I saw it!

I was wondering when you would get around to seeing it...IIC

[stenzrob]

Any comments on HSKA. It seems to be loosing 10 cents every week... I have seen it go from $2.68 to $1.05.
It hasn't gone per my plan, for sure. I see nothing wrong with the company, so I will hold.

[stenzrob]

Nice bounce today on most of my holdings.
There is hope, after all.

Just today ...
WITS +10.91% (back in black on buys at $11 and $13.30)
HSKA +15.00%
AUO +9.88%
HBIO +8.12%
SDGL +7.81%
PHMD +6.34%
SINT +3.93%

[MEA_1956]

Bounce Hell, It almost looks like a GRAND SLAM!!!!!!!!!! GRATE JOB

Do you use T/A,,,, OR ,,,, do you use K/Y

Sure showed us who was BOSS today.

I must admit, It sure is nice when this happens. Can't wait to run my weekly % cheack this week. Keep on, getten along, little dadoggy. ===> MEA

[stenzrob]

Much as I'd like to claim being the BOSS, the recent activityis still either just a bounce, or could be a turnaround. Those one day numbers were great, but this is my current return (as of this moment) on those stocks, since the various buy dates:

WITS +7.65%
HSKA -55.85%
AUO -37.57%
HBIO -16.98%
SDGL -29.89%
PHMD -39.18%
SINT -13.12%

It's going to take a few more days like that to get back to even for the year.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I bought WITS at $11 and again at about $13.30.
I just sold the $13.30 shares for a very small profit for $13.55.

I still like WITS, but it had become 40% of my IRA portfolio and I had no cash there to take advantage of anything else.

[stocks54]

Glad I did not close my position - already up 35 % in last 7 days....(still down 46% from purchase price)

[ChrisZXWJ]

Much as I'd like to claim being the BOSS, the recent activityis still either just a bounce, or could be a turnaround. Those one day numbers were great, but this is my current return (as of this moment) on those stocks, since the various buy dates:

WITS +7.65%
HSKA -55.85%
AUO -37.57%
HBIO -16.98%
SDGL -29.89%
PHMD -39.18%
SINT -13.12%

It's going to take a few more days like that to get back to even for the year.

Hi Stenz, it's been a while. I took the summer off from investing because I've been too busy to keep track of things as well as I would have liked. I see lots of red there, so maybe I did myself a favor. If you were to start all over, what would you pick going forward?

Chris

[stenzrob]

Hi Stenz, it's been a while. I took the summer off from investing because I've been too busy to keep track of things as well as I would have liked. I see lots of red there, so maybe I did myself a favor. If you were to start all over, what would you pick going forward? Taking the summer off was probably a good idea, Chris. I wish I had. I'm still holding those positions, and I like them going forward. They don't have much momentum at this point, but I see nothing I like that does have momentum.

Just to reiterate a little of my philosophy: In my mind, it doesn't matter whether a holding is currently up or down. Only going forward matters. So, it's not inconsistent for me to have sold something like LENS at a loss if I have no confidence in the company going forward yet hold onto HBIO and others when they're down. I don't sell at a 15% gain if I see something continuing up. Like $$$MM$$$, once I buy a position, I will hold until the gains materialize. Unlike $$$MM$$, I will sell if I think the company has gotten into trouble and will experience further losses before turning around.

[stenzrob]

SNCI today
- 50k shares traded in the first hour, 1/2 the average daily volume.

One has to wonder what's up? I'm sure that with fair disclosure and all, nobody knows anything that isn't already public.

[stenzrob]

LINK - Decent news flow. One deal (discussed on LINK board) with no PR. New PR this morning in another area of their business. Technicals look decent, with a several week long upswing from a test of support in the $7.50 area.

All of which means nothing to me now, because they announced a secondary offering yesterday, and I sold it all.

If you remember, I applied my experience with QUIN secondary to APTI when the same thing happened. No matter how much I may like LINK, I just don't see how buying pressure is going to move a stock up when the average daily volume is under 50,000 and they are going to put 1,750,000 shares on the market. That's over a months worth of demand!

[IIC]

Go WITS

[stenzrob]

Go WITSAmen, brother!

[stenzrob]

Go WITSWill WITS finally break out of the trading range and run like a scalded dog? The volume is certainly there to support it. There is an interesting link in the WITS news section at Yahoo calling for large (~22%) annual market gains for WITS products from now through 2010. The link does not show up at other financial portals.

I had a lot more of this at one point and lightened up, but still holding the original position bought at $11 back in February, and it's still my largest holding. Used the proceeds from WITS-lightening to add to position in SINT.

SNCI also looks to be rebounding a bit. Still holding original position that's way underwater, and trading it a bit.

[IIC]

Where the heck are you Stenz??? We should be dancing in the streets.
http://pages.prodigy.net/rogerlori1/emoticons/REDDANCE.JPG

I put over 50% of my wife's IRA in WITS in early April and I added in other accounts on 6/1...To be honest, in retrospect, it was stupid of me to go in so heavy w/o cutting losses...but now I don't feel so bad(dumb luck)...I should've sold and watched...and Bot back.

Anyway, WITS has closed up 11 of the last 12 months and 16 of the past 19 months. Looking at monthly charts it looks like a good B/O.

[stenzrob]

I had a bookmark directly to the forum that broke when the site was changed.
That, plus I have been out dancing in the streets! (grin)

SINT and WITS have been very strong lately. Looking for AUO to breakout soon to around $15. Nice pennant pattern going there.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I bought some SMTI today.
Profitable and growing, setting new highs on steady volume, PE much lower than growth rate.

WITS maybe getting ready to run again. Still holding the original $11 position.
HSKA running out of the basement lately. I bought in a few chunks on the way down, the recent advance puts it just above my last, lowest price entry.

Best of luck and regards to all ... stenz

[IIC]

Stenz...I decided to declare myself an Independent Stock Analyst yesterday...I posted my first action all over the Net last night(no kidding).

I initiated WITS with my TOP Rating:

SUPER DUPER ULTRA DELUXE STRONG BUY

Why do you think it went up today?

My TP is 18...then I go from there.

[stenzrob]

I don't know how far WITS can go. I'll get nervous when price/sales gets above 5, which is currently at around $27.50. I like your top rating.

SNCI goofed again. I was willing to accept the German setback last quarter, but now they're just whining. Sold out for a loss today at $4.20.

Take a look at SMTI, let me know what you think.

[stocks54]

Stenzrob,

Any comments on price movement for AUO in short term. Price move in SINT surprised me.

Thanks in advance for your response.

Regards,

[IIC]

I don't know how far WITS can go. I'll get nervous when price/sales gets above 5, which is currently at around $27.50. I like your top rating.

SNCI goofed again. I was willing to accept the German setback last quarter, but now they're just whining. Sold out for a loss today at $4.20.

Take a look at SMTI, let me know what you think.
SMTI was a good one for me in early January...in fact, it is one of my highest % gainers this year. I went in prior to the flat base b/o and added at the open on the day it broke.

Right now, I like the technical side intermediate term. On the short term I'd rate it a hold.

[thebign1]

Mike asked about GIGM and HBIO, but the one I was holding that has been making me nervous is MTEX.

I established a position at $7.30 just before it dropped some more, and more than doubled my position at $5.71. It bounced, but not on much volume, and there's been very little interest since then.

I sold all my MTEX today for $6.06, for a 17% loss on the original position and a 6% gain on the second buy.

I am TINY !!!

Hey Stenz, Have you looked back on this one lately??
It looks real good now.
Regards, Norm

[stenzrob]

Hey Stenz, Have you looked back on this one lately??
It looks real good now.
Regards, Norm
No, Norm, I hadn't looked at it lately. It is looking good, breaking out to higher ground.

Check out SMTI, this looks ready for a nice run. Read the last quarters report, where they discuss the regularly rising revenues, increasing margins, and outlook for 2005 of more of the same. The next quarters report should read nicely if they're still on track - comparison to the year ago quarter could look very nice, with revenue growth at around 50% or more.

My PC has goofed me up lately, I can't run my screen. Lost the MSN Deluxe plug-in, and when I try to download and reinstall, Internet Explorer crashes.

[stenzrob]

SMTI is still looking good, Q1 report is coming out next Tuesday. This stock can move very quickly. New closing high today. By the way, since I am currently not able to run my screener, I am finding some new buy candidates by looking at the nasdaq new highs list and investigating the stuff I'm interested in for any of those between about $5 and $20. This is how I found SMTI, also SIMC in the same industry. It showed up on the list after 9/29, I bought some for 13.55 on the 30th and again for 13.06 on Oct 1.

SDGL is showing signs of life. They preannounced another profitable quarter with steady rev growth, and that the CEO is buying shares. Someone on another board said that Peter Leeds (who runs a subscription penny stock letter) selected it as a hidden gem with a target of 75 to 95 cents. I bought this at 46 cents and more again at 30 cents. Today, the 30 cent position became profitable.

My non-IRA brokerage is:
- up slightly since January 1.
- down 22% since April 14, when I yanked a good portion of it to pay for the Danube cruise coming up the 1st week of November, and rebaselined my tracking.
- reached a low point on August 12, down 43.5% from April 14. Correlates to nasdaq low point, not surprisingly. Nasdaq down about 12.5% over the same time period. My beta relative to nasdaq for that period = 3.45
- up 38% from that August 12 low point to today. Nasdaq up about 11% over that same time period. My beta relative to nasdaq for that period = 3.45

The obvious conclusion here is that I am not yet smarter than the market, just wilder. Yeeha.

Looking back, I made a couple of big mistakes that contributed a large amount to the gross underperformance from 4/14 to 8/12. (I'm not beating myself up, I'm just trying to learn from my mistakes.) Without these mistakes, the results would have been quite a bit different. Also, three of my current positions are down about 35% from where I bought - BRHI, PHMD, and AUO.
1. I had shares of PDEX that I had bought at $3 that I somehow managed to sell for just over $2, which turned out to be near the low. The weakness was due to insider selling and the perception of that, not anything that the company did or didn't do. I should have been more patient.
2. Took a small loss on QUIN by not selling immediately when they announced a secondary offering. The losses could have been worse if I didn't sell when I did, the price still isn't back to where I sold it, and I used this lesson to minimize losses later in LINK, which is now dead in the water.
3. I actually managed to lose some money on a trade in WITS. I got overexcited and bought quite a bit on margin in June, then got nervous when it started heading down in July and took a loss selling at $11.45. Still have quite a bit of this in my IRA, and the profits there have more than made up for the loss, but it still hurts to mistime it that badly.

regards ... stenz

[IIC]

Hi Stenz...you made a comment about not being "Smarter Than The Market"...Heck...Nobody is...But it is sure fun trying to "OUTSMART" it...And, personally, I believe that for one to do well... one has to enjoy the battle...and I think you and I, along with a number of others around here, do enjoy it...Best, IIC

[thebign1]

By the way, since I am currently not able to run my screener, I am finding some new buy candidates..........

regards ... stenz

Hey Stenz, I can run the screener for you and post it. Just let me know which one you would like me to run. I believe I have most of the one's that you posted.

Regards, Norm

[Websman]

Hi Stenz...you made a comment about not being "Smarter Than The Market"...Heck...Nobody is...But it is sure fun trying to "OUTSMART" it...And, personally, I believe that for one to do well... one has to enjoy the battle...and I think you and I, along with a number of others around here, do enjoy it...Best, IIC

I must enjoy the battle also because I'm sure not winning it.

[stenzrob]

I must enjoy the battle also because I'm sure not winning it.
Never give up! Never surrender!

[Websman]

Never give up! Never surrender!


The battle WILL be won!!! (just not today...)

[stenzrob]

SMTI posted Q1 results this morning. Nice.

[IIC]

SMTI posted Q1 results this morning. Nice.
Saw that...thought of you...BTW: WITS reports A/H on 10/21...they had a feature in Call Center magazine this month too

[stenzrob]

Saw that...thought of you...BTW: WITS reports A/H on 10/21...they had a feature in Call Center magazine this month too
How sweet of you to think of me. I'll see where SMTI goes for a while. Of course, I already knew when WITS would report. That one is a long term hold as far as I'm concerned, unless they mess up somewhere along the line. Looking for around $30 in one year. Checking out BABY right now. Actually would have bought some if it had pulled back to the 20 day average, but it advanced again instead. Oh, well.

[thebign1]

Originally Posted by stenzrob
By the way, since I am currently not able to run my screener, I am finding some new buy candidates..........

regards ... stenz

Hey Stenz, I can run the screener for you and post it. Just let me know which one you would like me to run. I believe I have most of the one's that you posted.

Regards, Norm

[stenzrob]

Norm,
Thanks, but I am now able to run on another computer, just not the one I usually use.

[grebnet]

Hey Stenz......Still holding this one :)

[stenzrob]

greb - That was an interesting pop & fade on PRFT. I had not been following it closely, although I did remember it had been on my screen. Since you posted, I went and took another look. With the recent guidance revision, this looks a bit undervalued to me. I picked some up today for $4.01.

Thanks for the reminder ... stenz

[IIC]

AMEX to open options trading on 22 securities including WITS.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041018/nym220c_1.html

Witness Systems, Inc. options will open with position limits of 3,150,000 shares. The options will trade on the March expiration cycle. The specialist will be TANSTAAFL Research & Trading, LLC. Witness Systems, Inc. provides business-driven multimedia recording and analysis software.

[billyjoe]

IIC, Is this a good thing for WITS? Looking good today.
billyjoe

[IIC]

IIC, Is this a good thing for WITS? Looking good today.
billyjoeI don't know...I thought it would be good...but pretty big drop A/H...Stenz...or anyone else???

Meanwhile, I'll ask around

[stenzrob]

I don't know...I thought it would be good...but pretty big drop A/H...Stenz...or anyone else???

Meanwhile, I'll ask around
Let me tell you everything I know about options and how they affect the underlying stock price.
.
.
.
.
OK. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, my guess is that this would be good for WITS. It gives institutions a way to protect their positions. Let's say someone wanted to take a significant position. With no options to insure a safe exit, they may be reluctant.

I've heard it said many times that some institutions won't touch anything below $15. That makes no sense to me, but what does make sense is that they won't touch anything they can't insure using options. It may also be the case that no MMs bother covering a stock with options until after it reaches and looks to hold that level, also that there is sufficient trading interest.

This is all conjecture on my part. I am most definitely an amateur.

[IIC]

Yeah...I sort of heard the same thing...should peek the hedge fund's interest...IIC

[IIC]

One last look before I either retire...or get a second job ;)
http://trimurl.com/K2

[stenzrob]

According to MSN Money pages, WITS is currently selling for price/sales of 3.13 and (half year) forward PE of 49.3 x FY'04 earnings. This valuation assumes continued healthy, not necessarily stratospheric, growth. In order for the share price to continue to appreciate, they will have to meet or beat the revised guidance they provided in July, and either confirm or raise guidance for FY'04.

For the guidance provided in July, see
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/ticker/sigdev.asp?Symbol=WITS

Each report may be either an excuse to start selling off or a catalyst for more gains. We'll see what's in store for WITS after the close tomorrow.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I sold half of my original $11 WITS position from February today at $16.60. Just over 50% return in about 8 months. Wish they all did that. Looks like some people are nervous about earnings. I actually tried to sell it all, but it dropped off before they could take it all.

I went back and looked at the last several quarters and at the guidance for Q3 (report out tonight). If the guidance is met, it will still look very good year-over-year, but revenue would be almost flat sequentially. After the report, I will be looking for an opportunity to either get those shares back for continued run or dump the remainder.

Good luck to IIC or anyone else that might be holding WITS.

[stenzrob]

They took the rest going into the close.
I now have no WITS.

[stenzrob]

I posted on the WITS board. Though earnings growth will be good for the next year, revenue growth has leveled out. I will most likely not be looking to get back in.

[Websman]

Congratulations Stenz!

I sold WITS early on for a smaller profit. I should have stuck it out with you.

[stenzrob]

Thanks Websman - I didn't get the kind of returns I always hope for from WITS, but I have learned that if it's not going to happen, you can't make it so by continuing to wish for it. My old friend wormsmall used to call this "cold-blooded trading".

I will probably replace the WITS position with more PRFT. I'd like to thank grebnet for calling my attention back to that one that had been on my screen quite a while ago. Revenue growth looks very strong there.

I'm already a bit overloaded with SMTI, that's a good one also, IMHO. grebnet showed up on the SMTI board asking about the debt level, nice to see some serious DD going on there. This was one I picked out of a new 52 week high list when I couldn't get my screen to work. As grebnet noted in his post there, everything looks good except the high debt.

[Websman]

I picked up DHB again today. This is the 4th time I've bought it. There should be some upside for the rest of the year. We will soon see.

[stenzrob]

I picked up DHB again today. This is the 4th time I've bought it. There should be some upside for the rest of the year. We will soon see.
See my post #30273 on the Yahoo NTST board for a caution.
There are some DHB fans there among my 'friends'.

[grebnet]

Hey Stenz
You asked about changes to your screen. I cant pull it up at work. but will send a link to you eventually . Would you buy SMTI at these levels ? Grebnet

[stenzrob]

I would be buying SMTI here, if I wasn't already holding a boatload.
Take your time with those changes, I'm just curious.

Glad I took the profits in WITS when I did, it remains to be seen if it bounces or if today is the first day of a massive reversal.

[grebnet]

todays volume is 0 zero, whats up with that ???????

[tokyojoeskid]

stenz you still holding snci and hbio?

[stenzrob]

stenz you still holding snci and hbio?
Dumped SNCI on the second fumble; I understood the German co-pay setback and I continued to hold; but then they said essentially "we've fallen behind in technology and hope maybe we'll catch up later". I dumped immediately.

Still holding HBIO.

[stenzrob]

BRHI is one that I called "unjustifiable". I started watching this one several years ago, and just liked it for some reason. It does not fit my screen, or any other screen of which I am aware. Revenue stream has been long in coming, despite some good strategic partnerships. There have finally been two PR's this week. I bought this on an upsurge in price and volume that followed a string of PR's back in March. Hoping for a similar surge following these new PR's, perhaps even some more PR's. This one can move fast, and can drop off again just as fast. It's in my portfolio mostly for the amusement value.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Pleasant little bounce for BRHI today.

[stenzrob]

You can see my sorry excuse for TA on WITS here:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600604483&tid=wits&sid=1600604483&mid=3410

I am looking for an argument.

[IIC]

You can see my sorry excuse for TA on WITS here:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1600604483&tid=wits&sid=1600604483&mid=3410

I am looking for an argument.
You know...I wouldn't worry about it if I were you. And I also would not pay attention to what people say on the Yahoo boards...mostly it is a bunch of BS. Groups and Chats...are much better IMO.

The only reason I ever go to Yahoo boards is to see if there is some news item I missed or to rabble-rouse.

You seem like a good guy...I wouldn't waste my time if I were you...Best, IIC

[stenzrob]

You know...I wouldn't worry about it if I were you. And I also would not pay attention to what people say on the Yahoo boards...mostly it is a bunch of BS. Groups and Chats...are much better IMO.

The only reason I ever go to Yahoo boards is to see if there is some news item I missed or to rabble-rouse.

You seem like a good guy...I wouldn't waste my time if I were you...Best, IICI'm not worried at all. I enjoy the rabble-rousing. Some boards are better than others. I actually "hang out" on the NTST board, having made some virtual friends there. We seldom discuss NTST, it's just where we ended up.

[stenzrob]

Back from a week of vacation, cruising the Danube through Central Europe. I see that most of my positions have gone nowhere while the nasdaq, etc. have been surging ahead. Oh, well. At least I sold WITS near the peak, BRHI is issuing one PR after the other, and SMTI (now my largest position) announced new contracts and had a good report.

regards ... stenz

[MEA_1956]

With GIGM now traveling above there 200 MA ($1.28) and the 50 MA ($1.36) do you feel there may be a reentry on this stock or has it left from your sight all togeather. ===> M.E.A.

[stenzrob]

With GIGM now traveling above there 200 MA ($1.28) and the 50 MA ($1.36) do you feel there may be a reentry on this stock or has it left from your sight all togeather. ===> M.E.A.A reentry here might be reasonable. Price/sales < 1.0, no debt. Considering accumulating at the bottom of the uptrending channel that seems to be forming.

[IIC]

Back from a week of vacation, cruising the Danube through Central Europe. I see that most of my positions have gone nowhere while the nasdaq, etc. have been surging ahead. Oh, well. At least I sold WITS near the peak, BRHI is issuing one PR after the other, and SMTI (now my largest position) announced new contracts and had a good report.

regards ... stenz
WHAT??? WITS has not even come close to the peak!!!...So you take your WITS profits and go to Europe...Mine are going to take care of me in my "Golden Years"... ;)

Actually, I was just talking to a buddy today...I said, I think this one still has a long way to go...but...I'm fairly certain I could have made a lot more on day or swinging all the $$$ we have in this one since April and added on 6/1...IIC

[stenzrob]

... I will probably replace the WITS position with more PRFT. I'd like to thank grebnet for calling my attention back to that one that had been on my screen quite a while ago. Revenue growth looks very strong there.

I'm already a bit overloaded with SMTI, ... I bought PRFT back in October at $4.01 and $4.30, it's setting a new high on healthy volume today, my positions there are up over 25% and 17%. I will continue to ride it to $10 or more, unless there is a slip up.

I'm still ticked about SMTI being acquired for a puny premium. I was looking for more. Bought at $13.55, $13.06, and $12.60. Acquisition to be completed in Q1 is for between $14.20 and $15. Sold half my position on the pop when the acquisition was announced, holding the other half probably to completion.

In the last few weeks, dumped AUO, BRHI, and PHMD for losses to partially offset other gains this year. Doing this in November, so that I might be able to pick them back up if I want to in December when others decide to take tax loss and drive them down further. Or, pick up something else instead.

Bought some SWIR last week for $19.20. The analysts all seem down on it, we'll see how it goes.

[tokyojoeskid]

Remember EONC whew it had quite a day. Never owned it but this defense approval will push the stock up on hype most likely.

[stenzrob]

Remember EONC whew it had quite a day. Never owned it but this defense approval will push the stock up on hype most likely.Saw that. Only because I still had some in my intermittently managed marketocracy fund.

GIGM is another of my old picks that has come back to life, though I don't have any of that anymore, either. Also check out GORX today. I actually sold that for a loss quite a long time ago.

Oh well, my two largest positions currently are SWIR and PRFT.

[MEA_1956]

GIGM yes it is on the move and it has been making me quit happy. As Spike has stated, He dosen't have to go out looking, there is enought of the good ones right here at Mister Market .com. ===> M.E.A.

[stenzrob]

GIGM is another of my old picks that has come back to life, though I don't have any of that anymore, either. Also check out GORX today. I actually sold that for a loss quite a long time ago.

Oh well, my two largest positions currently are SWIR and PRFT.GIGM ran up just before earnings, fell back again afterwards, still watching it. GORX popped big time on an FDA approval that it turns out their PR was wrong about in some way, now they're getting sued by a class action vulture.

My two largest positions are still SWIR and PRFT. PRFT in particular is looking ready for a serious run.

[stenzrob]

PRFT continuing to set new highs on healthy volume.
My positions from $4.01 and $4.30 are up 38% and 29%, but this ride is just beginning.

[Websman]

PRFT continuing to set new highs on healthy volume.
My positions from $4.01 and $4.30 are up 38% and 29%, but this ride is just beginning.


Stenz, I made money on WITS and SNCI with you. PRFT may be next.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, I made money on WITS and SNCI with you. PRFT may be next.Are you in it yet, webs? I posted on the Yahoo PRFT board why I believe it will go to $12 to $15, but we all know that even if that turns out to be true, it won't go straight up. If I were not already in it, I might be tempted to get in with a position on this breakout, then add more on an appropriate pullback, whether that occurs higher or lower than where it is now. But since I already have quite a bit, the play is slightly different. I may be looking for a short term peak to sell half my position and try to buy it back on the same appropriate pullback.

[Websman]

I'll have to free up some cash before I can get in. Once I get some cash, I'll look for a pullback before i get in.

I think PRFT may make you some profit!

[Mi6op]

Hey Fellas glad to see my PRFT is finally getting a move on

[MEA_1956]

GIGM===== I will hold until it crosses the $1.75 line and at that time I shall depart and wait for round two. There just dosen't seam to beeeeeee as many seller this time around. With the last hours up ticks there may be some support at this point. ===> M.E.A.

[New-born baby]

Strenz,

In one post, would you mind listing all the stocks that you'd be interested in buying right now. Would you also post an entry, a reason to buy (e.g. 'earnings up 55% last quarter), and a target.

Why do I ask? I am trying to learn something.

I like the way you seem to have been able to buy these $5 stocks and milk them successfully. I like $5 stocks because I can get a handful of them at once.

Thank you!

[Websman]

Newborn, they can bash $5 stocks all they want, but it's amazing how much money you can make in a little time with them. Of course, you can lose too...lol

[Websman]

Stenz, have you been watching NGEN? I've got to get some cash free and get into NGEN or PRF. These stocks are rocking!

Here's my watch list - PRFT, LOUD, NGEN, CMGI, MPWR, GIGM, JRJC.

My IPO favorites are - BBW, DPZ

[MEA_1956]

Just a quick note hear on your IPO list, WEB. ONE to stop and consider, BBG is being compaired to POG,KWK,UPL. Now that is a tall order, for an IPO. To be placed in the ranks of such grate peirs. As you will find out during your DD that they have been there and done that with great sucess and this must be why they want to start it all over again. ===> M.E.A.

PS GIGM is back and on the move again this week. COME ON IN THE WATERS FINE. Already flooded the area with SHARK repallent. Looking for at least $2.72 by weeks end. Moved up after close again and closed at $2.10.

[Websman]

I'll look at BBG. Thanks MEA!

[stenzrob]

Another opportunity missed - HURC has been on my screen for some time, but I never bought any. Just announced great results and will open gapped up today.

[grebnet]

Hey Stenz

Using my perversion of your screen I bought HURC at 8.15 and 14.86 , sold it all happily at 16.50:) , coulda shoulda made more but either way made a bunch.

Sold 1/2 of my PRFT for 4.72:mad: for a healthy profit , hoping to buy back in but it ran off. So Im liking the pull back to refill the position.

Have you looked at ANTP ,? my newest addition and FRD ??

[stenzrob]

Nice work, greb.
I have not looked at ANTP or FRD.
Will when I get a chance.

[stenzrob]

PRFT continues it's happy march upwards. Still my largest holding.
WITS just had a climax and the chart is now broken, IMO. I wonder if IIC is still in it or not, I was out 2 months ago.
Anyone notice SPEA today? Up five thousand to eight thousand percent, depending on when you look. Too wild for me.

[stocks54]

Stenz,

Happy to see PRFT march upwards. I might add some more to my current holding.

Thanks for the link to interview with CEO (from PRFT msg board).

Regards,

[grebnet]

Hey Stenz did you ever look at these two as I mentioned several posts ago?????

[stenzrob]

greb, I did take a brief look at those over the weekend.
ANTP is too small for my taste. Anything could happen. Also, long term growth is negligible, I would look for it to continue. I'm not saying there's not an opportunity here, just that it isn't my cup of tea.

FRD looks good, though.

By the way, PRFT (my current favorite) made another smart acquisition, and is now 1 year ahead of plan for reaching $100M revenue.

[grebnet]

I sold my last bit at 6.20 and am waiting to get back in . got some back last week at 6.03 . I am a believer too , Just like to take profits .

[Mi6op]

Stenz I'm thinking of doubling up at this point. I've seen your thoughts of this being a $12 stock. Long story short, what doyou think.

[stenzrob]

Stenz I'm thinking of doubling up at this point. I've seen your thoughts of this being a $12 stock. Long story short, what doyou think.My current plan is to double up if it dips to and bounces off the 50 day or previous resistance at around $5. I am only willing to be that patient because it is already my largest position.

[Thomrich]

greetings Stenz,
I met you about 2yrs ago from CRIO,
That stock has moved nicely from about1.25,now at 1.95,
They still cant make a profit,but do have a large cash per share ratio,people speculating a buyout.
Any thoughts?

cordially Tom

[stenzrob]

greetings Stenz,
I met you about 2yrs ago from CRIO,
That stock has moved nicely from about1.25,now at 1.95,
They still cant make a profit,but do have a large cash per share ratio,people speculating a buyout.
Any thoughts?

cordially TomI remember you, Tom. I took a very quick look again at CRIO, and still find nothing to like. I found financials at cbs marketwatch that show $7.4M in cash and $7.0M in long term debt. That's a wash, but there is also about $21M in securities. The long term debt is new over the last year, because they haven't ever found a way to be profitable and were running out of cash. When CRIO was on my screen, they were growing revenues, advancing toward profitability, and had no long term debt. I sold when the revenue and earnings trajectory stopped moving forward. Since then, the revenue growth has stopped entirely, losses have started to accelerate, and they've taken on the new debt. There may be an opportunity to make money trading it, but I have no interest in it. I really believe there is not a workable business model there. Those are my thoughts.

[Thomrich]

I remember you, Tom. I took a very quick look again at CRIO, and still find nothing to like. I found financials at cbs marketwatch that show $7.4M in cash and $7.0M in long term debt. That's a wash, but there is also about $21M in securities. The long term debt is new over the last year, because they haven't ever found a way to be profitable and were running out of cash. When CRIO was on my screen, they were growing revenues, advancing toward profitability, and had no long term debt. I sold when the revenue and earnings trajectory stopped moving forward. Since then, the revenue growth has stopped entirely, losses have started to accelerate, and they've taken on the new debt. There may be an opportunity to make money trading it, but I have no interest in it. I really believe there is not a workable business model there. Those are my thoughts.

Yeah I agree,
Ihad a buy order at 1.50 about a month ago,never got filled ,I think it missed by .02,would have been nice to ride to 2.00.,they just cant seem to mke a profit,the ever elusive turning point never happens.

I love PRFT,looking to enter in low 6 if possible.

cordially Tom

[Websman]

Hey Thomrich, are you still in DHB?

[Tsevni98]

I think money central changed a bit.

My link doesnt work anymore

Thanks James

[ridemhigher]

Stenz,
Congrats on this pick. You (we) had a HUGE day today!!!

[Websman]

Stenz,
Congrats on this pick. You (we) had a HUGE day today!!!


Why didn't I buy PRTF???? Why...why...why....ohhh the agony!!!

Great pick Stenz! Maybe next time I'll join you.

[Mi6op]

Heh I should be happy I've been in for a year and I'm up %150+ now. But I just dropped extra cash into my Scottrade account last week to double up on PRFT. Now it does THIS to me!!

I know you all feel sorry for me hehe. Actually I want to find another stock like this one but since I bought it a year ago and took a 6 month stock hiatus, I kind of forget what screening perameters I used. I'm pretty sure it was a Stez Spinoff. So I'm asking kind Stenzrob, could you post a link to the screener you use or something close?

Thanks

[IIC]

I was fortunate enough to be bored for a little while today and was just watching headline news when I saw the PRFT guidance...I just went ahead and BOT w/o thinking...Worked out as a cool 10 min trade. Think I'll call it a year now...LOL

[stenzrob]

PRFT is not done yet. I am still waiting for $12 to $15.

[Websman]

PRFT is not done yet. I am still waiting for $12 to $15.

I'll keep watching for a buying opportunity.

[stenzrob]

I'll keep watching for a buying opportunity.This was it, webs. I just bought some more at $7.70.
Pop from $6.50 to $9.25, 50% retrace to $7.75.

Good luck.

[stenzrob]

greb, I did take a brief look at those over the weekend.
ANTP is too small for my taste. Anything could happen. Also, long term growth is negligible, I would look for it to continue. I'm not saying there's not an opportunity here, just that it isn't my cup of tea.

FRD looks good, though.

By the way, PRFT (my current favorite) made another smart acquisition, and is now 1 year ahead of plan for reaching $100M revenue.Hey grebnet - what's up, or rather down, with FRD today?
A buying opportunity?

[grebnet]

Hey Stenz

I'm hoping.....that its the same for FRD as PRFT , just some profit taking after good runs. I'm still holding both.I own plenty of both so feel its wise for me to ignore any "buying opp."

What about ANTP???? I made a great profit of 70%:) , but coulda made another 100% if I held on longer:mad: ....Oh well ...Better to have sold and be sorry than to not sell and be sorry. . Valuation seem outta control now.

Not doing much of anything until the dust settles.

[stenzrob]

I'm still very bullish on PRFT, have an overweight position there. With the advance from $4 to over $7, price/sales inflation knocked it off my screen, but the screen is to identify new buy candidates, and is not a criteria for holding or buying more once something gets going.

My current Screener lists on MLK Jr. day:
NANO, SYXI, DIOD, MTEX, NTGR, SINT, MDKI, DECK, CREAF, RECN, NCI

This is my current screener:
http://tinyurl.com/4wcqf

[bec1nj]

Stenzrob-Just wanted to congratulate you from a reformed and humble admirer.
Bruce

[stenzrob]

Thanks Dr. Bruce.

[bec1nj]

I am rooting for you, Stenzrob, as the company is run it looks like by some young, really smart professionals. Nice research and continued best of success.
Dr. B (Bruce)

[stenzrob]

PRFT just came back onto my screen. After being dropped from the screen due to the price advance making the price/sales above 3.0, it has returned to the list. Rapidly growing revenues with good margins, increased average trading volume on 6 month relative strength of 99. It hasn't looked like a momentum stock for the last several weeks, but a longer time frame shows a different picture.

Chart looks like a "flag" to me - see http://stockcharts.com/education/ChartAnalysis/flagPennant.html

A cooperative market turn (having suffered enough downtime in January), combined with a good earnings report on 2 Feb, could send PRFT flying past $10 in a hurry.

[bec1nj]

Good luck on the February 2 earnings report and conference call, stenzrob.

[stenzrob]

Good luck on the February 2 earnings report and conference call, stenzrob.Thanks Bruce. I need PRFT to really cook to make up for the SWIR fiasco.

[Thomrich]

Greetings Stenzrob,
I feel for ya with SWIR,Spike save me on that.It looks like PRFT may balance it out for you.I checked short data on SWIR,and it increased substantially Dec.-Jan,while the price dropped,its looks suspicious to me.Class action suits on the way?

BTW did you see CRIO got bought out at 2.82 per share by IBM.Spike liked the chart back in Nov at 1.50,I should have listened.

cordially Tom

[stenzrob]

Greetings Stenzrob,
I feel for ya with SWIR,Spike save me on that.It looks like PRFT may balance it out for you.I checked short data on SWIR,and it increased substantially Dec.-Jan,while the price dropped,its looks suspicious to me.Class action suits on the way?

BTW did you see CRIO got bought out at 2.82 per share by IBM.Spike liked the chart back in Nov at 1.50,I should have listened.

cordially TomHey tom, Nice to hear from you.

I did notice about the CRIO buyout. I played that one from June through October 2003, first buying at $1.60 and last selling at $3. I missed the later run to $4.50, but also missed the fall to just over $1. The buyout price is still less than where I sold out of it.

If there's a class action suit on SWIR, I'll sign up. The guidance for the next quarter was so totally out of line with previous statements, and strong selling preceding the announcement, somebody should pay me back! Mea culpa, though, for not taking the loss earlier on the technical weakness.

I bought SWIR for just under $20 in November, sold it after hours yesterday for $9.85. Better than where it is now, and much better than where it's going. Sometimes it's best to just admit the mistake, take the loss, and move on. No point in wishin' and hopin'.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Helpful hint - How to rate this thread:
At the upper right, click "Rating", select the "Excellent" button, then "Vote Now".

[ChrisZXWJ]

hmm...got quiet here. how come?

[jiesen]

everyone's still trying to catch their breath... wow, what a roller coaster ride this week has been!

[stenzrob]

I've been quiet for two reasons - out of town a few times on business, and I haven't been trading. I've run my screen a few times, haven't seen anything new that really gets me juiced, although I am watching SYXI and NTGR. Meanwhile, I continue to hold a very large position in PRFT. PRFT is currently 137% of my cash account and 48% of my IRA. To heck with diversification - I can't find anything not to like and have placed my bet. I will lighten up on it if and when they make a mistake.

[stenzrob]

I've been quiet for two reasons - out of town a few times on business, and I haven't been trading. I've run my screen a few times, haven't seen anything new that really gets me juiced, although I am watching SYXI and NTGR. Meanwhile, I continue to hold a very large position in PRFT. PRFT is currently 137% of my cash account and 48% of my IRA. To heck with diversification - I can't find anything not to like and have placed my bet. I will lighten up on it if and when they make a mistake.OK, so I lied. Just to play around, I sold 20% of my PRFT position today at $7.94, since it looked like it wasn't breaking through the $8 barrier this week. I have an order in to get those shares back at $7.30, which is a guess at where the lower trendline will be as this gem circles around for another assault on the gates.

[bec1nj]

Glad to hear all is going well in Cherry Hill, stenzrob, and I am rooting for your PRFT!

Dr. Bruce

[ParkTwain]

I'm liking the PRFT chart also for a specific reason. Take a look at this 6-month chart that also shows the Wilder DMI plots.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=PRFT,uu[h,a]daolyyay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb14!Ll14]&pref=G

Notice that the -DI line (red) is never moving above 20 level. This is very bullish sign. There are no sellers of this stock, so the price is being supported and it jumps up every time the buyers show up. The sellers are IN CHARGE of this stock!

I saw this pattern also with RIV over the last 4 to 5 months.

[stenzrob]

OK, so I lied. Just to play around, I sold 20% of my PRFT position today at $7.94, since it looked like it wasn't breaking through the $8 barrier this week. I have an order in to get those shares back at $7.30, which is a guess at where the lower trendline will be as this gem circles around for another assault on the gates.Got those shares back today at $7.30 as planned.

[tokyojoeskid]

A loser for the both of us stenz has shown some recent strength, I wonder what's up with Qvdx

[stenzrob]

A loser for the both of us stenz has shown some recent strength, I wonder what's up with QvdxUnless my memory is failing, I never actually lost money on QVDX - I sold on some technical weakness after much less profit than I had been fantasizing about, shortly before the crash. It does look to be recovering, but I probably won't spend any time looking at it.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some ACU for $17. Lower average volume than I usually look for.
Also bought some TCOW recently for $1.00.

[Tsevni98]

i dont see those on your most recent screener http://tinyurl.com/4wcqf

where did you come up with those two??

thanks

[stenzrob]

i dont see those on your most recent screener http://tinyurl.com/4wcqf

where did you come up with those two??

thanks
Got ACU from an article by Peter Brimelow on marketwatch comparing results of Coolcat (Kennedy) and Louis Navellier newsletter results.
http://tinyurl.com/3kwku

Got TCOW from a list of new 52-week highs a few weeks ago, and watched for a pullback.

[noshadyldy]

Got ACU from an article by Peter Brimelow on marketwatch comparing results of Coolcat (Kennedy) and Louis Navellier newsletter results.
http://tinyurl.com/3kwku

Got TCOW from a list of new 52-week highs a few weeks ago, and watched for a pullback.

Thanks Stenzrob! I like the look of the ACU chart. Also, i went and read that article and interestingly enough, NGPS, our old nemesis heartbreaker, is a BUY!

[stenzrob]

Thanks Stenzrob! I like the look of the ACU chart. Also, i went and read that article and interestingly enough, NGPS, our old nemesis heartbreaker, is a BUY!Also ANTP, which someone here mentioned before, and DECK, one of $$$MR_MARKET$$$'s picks a while back.

PRFT is moving up this morning, apparently this was mentioned on CNBC by Bjurman, Barry manager yesterday, though I did not see it.

[noshadyldy]

Also ANTP, which someone here mentioned before, and DECK, one of $$$MR_MARKET$$$'s picks a while back.

PRFT is moving up this morning, apparently this was mentioned on CNBC by Bjurman, Barry manager yesterday, though I did not see it.

Stenz,
In being interested in his "january" pics, I'm assuming that this Navelier is a 'holder" at least for a while, not a rapid trader???

[noshadyldy]

Stenz,
In being interested in his "january" pics, I'm assuming that this Navelier is a 'holder" at least for a while, not a rapid trader???


hmmmmmm... don't know if I'm too impressed with this Navelier. I took a closer look at his pics for January. Providing they came out the very beginning of January (or end Dec.) he's had a couple of real stinkers in there. For example, he called NGPS and ANTP RIGHT BEFORE THEY TANKED! Not saying he doesn't pic good solid stocks, but his timing really rots!

[billyjoe]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoe

[noshadyldy]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoe

Well that was a short romance. Ugh!

[stenzrob]

noshadyldy,

I checked out some Navelier picks a couple years ago and tracked them for a month or two. They were so bad it was shocking. Not joking, you couldn't do worse if you tried. Lots of major tanks. A name I'll remember.

billyjoeRead the whole article I posted the link for, it mentions the risk and volatility of both Navellier and Coolcat. Going WAY, WAY back, perhaps even to the Yahoo group version of this site, I clearly stated that my screen was based on an article or two that I had read about Coolcat's picking and timing technique. Long term, Navallier's (and Coolcat's) results blow away all averages, according to the analysis done by Brimelow over a long period.

This is further argument for both diversification and for holding something unless the premise on which you bought it becomes invalid. Right now, for example, I'm down 5.5% on ACU, down 11% on TCOW, but up over 80% on PRFT so far. If you go back over my picks, you'll find some real clunkers, as well. You'll also find 200 to 300% gains on several. I'm hoping to learn from every success and every failure.

Any opinions on either ACU or TCOW?

[jiesen]

Read the whole article I posted the link for, it mentions the risk and volatility of both Navellier and Coolcat.

This is for those of you too lazy/busy to spend the 5 minutes signing up for Marketwatch.com's nifty service and free offers.

Cats, hares -- and steady hares

By Peter Brimelow (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/mailto.asp?siteid=mktw&x=112+98+114+105+109+101+108+111+119&y=Peter%20Brimelow&guid=%7BF8DA2896%2DBAA1%2D4CF7%2DA418%2DDBE2ABA8E1 63%7D), CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jan. 13, 2005
NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- Does fast and steady win the race?

Recently, I named Louis Navellier's MPT Review as Investment Letter of the Year.

(See my Dec. 27 column) (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B81C99643%2D65EB%2D4DB7%2D9AE2%2D 98A70EE3E0F5%7D&siteid=mktw)

He promptly renamed it Emerging Growth.

A reader asked how Navellier compared to Kevin Kennedy's Coolcat Explosive Small Cap Growth Stock Report.

This was an excellent question.

Not only do the two letters use a form of momentum approach and take a lot of risk, but they also both broke the curve of long-run investment appreciation.

Mark Hulbert's monitoring of investment letters over nearly 25 years suggests that 15 to 20 percent annualized is the very most you can expect.

But even as late as last year, Coolcat's average portfolio growth since 1999 (when the HFD started following him) was an amazing 40.7 percent annualized.

But 2004 was hard on Coolcat -- down 1.6 percent vs. the dividend reinvested Wilshire 5000's 12.6 percent gain.

That brought his overall average portfolio appreciation down to a mere 35.5 percent.

Phooey!

Louis Navellier Emerging Growth/MPT has an average portfolio growth since Mark Hulbert started monitoring it in 1984 of 20.5 percent. Through November of last year alone, he was up nearly 24 percent.

The key difference between the two letters: Navellier never times the market. He is always fully invested.

But Kennedy tries to do everything. He not only tries to pick stocks way out on the risk frontier -- he also tries to time the market.

He even goes short, unlike Navellier. Successful shorting extended his winning streak during the market break in 2002. (See my Aug. 8 2002 column) (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0934C5E0%2D493D%2D4561%2DBA3F%2D D5296CE03CE7%7D&siteid=mktw)

Kennedy's winning streak extended a long time. Remember, overall he's still up that 35.5 percent annualized over the past five years -- and five years is our rough threshold for taking letters seriously. (The total return Wilshire was down just over 1 percent annualized.)

And Coolcat is significantly ahead of Navellier, who had a (relatively) hard time in the bear market -- up slightly more than 10 percent annualized.

In fact, as of now, Coolcat hasn't even had the dramatic downswings of OTC Insight, a very similar letter to MPT Review, but riskier. It has been bouncing back and to from our top 10 best performers and top 10 worst performers for several years. (See my Dec. 23 column) (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B712213A9%2DFCAB%2D48E2%2D86CD%2D 2C1D60587693%7D&siteid=mktw).

And yet OTC Insight's record by Hulbert Financial Digest count is cumulatively strong over the long term.



It may be that Coolcat won't suffer what might appear to be the usual wages of risk.

After all, another letter editor burst on the scene with a curve-breaking performance, them settled down to being merely outstanding -- Louis Navellier, 20 years ago.

Conclusion: Coolcat may land on all four paws -- possibly involving some giddy gyrations.

Conversely, it's not that Navellier doesn't take risk. The Hulbert Financial Digest estimates that his portfolios have been over 90 percent more volatile than the market. But Coolcat has been more than 180 percent as risky.

In the long run, over many years, Navellier's use of risk just seems to have been consistently judicious.

So it's not a question of hares and tortoises. Navellier is a hare too -- but a steady one.

Navellier has 50 stocks on his current buy list. These are the ones he added in January.

Acme United (ACU (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=ACU&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ACU&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ACU&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ACU&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Cummis (CMI (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=CMI&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=CMI&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=CMI&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=CMI&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Deckers Outdoor (DECK (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=DECK&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DECK&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DECK&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DECK&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Dialysis Corp of America (DCAI (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=DCAI&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DCAI&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DCAI&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=DCAI&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Friedman Industries (FRD (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=FRD&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=FRD&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=FRD&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=FRD&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

G Willi-Food (WILCF (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=WILCF&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=WILCF&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=WILCF&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=WILCF&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Ipsco (IPS (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=IPS&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=IPS&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=IPS&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=IPS&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Nordic American Tanker Shipping (NAT (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NAT&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NAT&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NAT&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NAT&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Novatel (NGPS (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=NGPS&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NGPS&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NGPS&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=NGPS&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Phazar (ANTP (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=ANTP&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ANTP&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ANTP&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=ANTP&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Rotonics Manufacturing (RMI (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=RMI&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=RMI&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=RMI&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=RMI&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Sun Hydraulics (SNHY (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/detail.asp?view=detail&symb=SNHY&siteid=mktw&dist=mktwstoryquote): news (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/news.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=SNHY&dist=mktwstorynews), chart (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/intchart.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=SNHY&dist=mktwstorychart), profile (http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?siteid=mktw&symb=SNHY&dist=mktwstoryprofile))

Editor's note: The most recent edition of the Hulbert Financial Digest is available by e-mail or regular mail. Highlights include:

Honor pays: The HFD 2005 investment newsletter honor roll
Performance table: Newsletter grades in up and down markets
Profiles: Richard E. Band's Profitable Investing, Sound Advice and Standard & Poor's Outlook

[stenzrob]

Thanks jiesen. Some may be too lazy/busy to get there, I was just too lazy/busy to cut&paste it!

[stenzrob]

ACU bounced off the 50 day moving average again. If the future can be predicted from the past, there should be healthy gains in the next few weeks.

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)

Finally bought some SFCC, after MM already made his money on it long ago, it's been on and off my screen for probably a year or more. Looks good for another 50% gain from here. Paid $41.50 for it.

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)Once again, my timing is impeccable, NOT. The very next day after I lighten up a bit, PRFT jumps over 5% on heavier than usual volume for the morning hours. Oh well. One time I sold on what appeared to be a stall and bought back again almost 10% lower, then sold it again before it took off. I still made more on the sell, buy, sell round trip than I have not made on this morning's pop.

[stenzrob]

PRFT setting a new high today.
My $4 buy is now up over 125%.

This makes up for the occasional faux pas, and is the nature of my game.

[stocks54]

AUSTIN, Texas--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 7, 2005--Perficient, Inc. (NASDAQ: PRFT - News), a leading information technology consulting firm in the central United States, today announced the filing of a registration statement with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a proposed public offering of 5,032,600 shares of its common stock, of which 4,250,000 shares will be offered by Perficient and 782,600 shares will be offered by certain non-affiliate selling stockholders. The registration statement also covers the underwriters' option to purchase up to 267,390 additional shares of common stock from the company and up to 487,500 shares to be offered by certain stockholders, some of whom are affiliates of the company, to cover over-allotments, if any.


- Stenz what's your take on the seconday offering?

Regards,

[stenzrob]

- Stenz what's your take on the seconday offering?
I generally don't like secondaries. They can really kill a good run. The only time I saw a stock do well in the several months following one was SINT. Usually when a company announces a secondary, I dump it and never look back. PRFT clearly intends to use the proceeds for more acquisitions to fuel their rapid growth.

I sold a little over half of my remaining PRFT for $8.41 this morning. I still like PRFT a lot, and will be watching to see how it behaves. Check my post #10706 on the Yahoo PRFT board.

[stocks54]

Stenz,

Thanks for your comments.

Regards,
Stocks...

[stenzrob]

Made a bit of an adjustment today - lightened up on PRFT, now only 40% of my total portfolio, was 60%. (not exactly a paniced dash to the exit)

Finally bought some SFCC, after MM already made his money on it long ago, it's been on and off my screen for probably a year or more. Looks good for another 50% gain from here. Paid $41.50 for it.
Well, this turned out to be an exciting few weeks. I lightened up on PRFT, just before it broke out. Then PRFT filed for a secondary offering and has taken a hit. I diversified out of PRFT into SFCC, who just filed today for a secondary offering. As soon as I realized it, I bailed out of SFCC immediately for about a 4% loss.

I hate secondaries. These can really kill a run.

[stocks54]

I sold all my PRFT shares at $7.32. I wish I could have sold shares day after the secondary announcement, could have made more profit. I got greedy HOPING that this secondary would be different than others.

Regards,

[stenzrob]

I sold all my PRFT shares at $7.32. I wish I could have sold shares day after the secondary announcement, could have made more profit. I got greedy HOPING that this secondary would be different than others.

Regards,I got out higher than that, but also had been thinking that this time might be different, and delayed a little bit. It was not. Apparently, this is the year that the market has chosen to teach me the lesson about secondaries, and whack my knuckles with the ruler anytime I give the wrong answer.

In all cases but one (SINT), the effect of a secondary on stock price has been the same. I have been nailed by this on APTI, LINK, SFCC, and PRFT. Most of these I made a profit on, because I had been riding them up for at least several months prior to the announcement, but the drop on the secondary took some off the top. My policy is now to sell immediately on any such announcement. No questions, no further thought, nothing - secondary announced => sell.

[stocks54]

Next time any stocks that I am holding files for secondary I will sell my position right away.

Any plan of getting into SFCC? I know NTGR is in your watch list. Any plan of opening a position.

As always thank for your helpful & detailed posts.

Regards,

[stenzrob]

Next time any stocks that I am holding files for secondary I will sell my position right away.

Any plan of getting into SFCC? I know NTGR is in your watch list. Any plan of opening a position.

As always thank for your helpful & detailed posts.

Regards,Waiting for a 30 day wash on SFCC - I missed the looming secondary, and took a small loss when I discovered it. Then I will take another look at it. NTGR is indeed on my watchlist, but it hasn't really fired my imagination and I don't have a plan to open a position. I keep watching it, though.

I did actually open 3 new positions in the last few days - since dumping PRFT and SFCC positions, I have actually been at almost 80% cash for the last several weeks, and I think it's time to get back in.

The 3 new positions are: SYXI, EFJI, and LCRY. All have shown up in the not too dustant past on my screen and I jad been just watching. SYXI looks about ready to break out to me, EFJI is consolidating after a strong pop - I remember PRFT doing this also before advancing strongly before shooting itself in the foot with the secondary.

LCRY is another story altogether. This had shown up on my screen, and I'm familiar with the products and company from a previous life. Just another ticker on the watchlist. Then, all of a sudden, it broke down and I have really no idea why. I watched with morbid curiosity as it dropped through every moving average. It broke down through 50 day a few weeks ago at $23, and accelerated after breaking through the 200 at $20. My take is that this bottomed on the desperate race for the exit yesterday, bouncing cleanly and convincingly to me off $15. Picked it up at $17 yesterday afternoon. Either something is seriously wrong here that's not public, or this is a great opportunity. The company has been growing steadily, and making the occasional strategic acquisition. They showed a loss on paper last quarter due to one-time accounting for recent acquisition, but the plummet of the last few weeks has put them at price/sales of 1.5 and price/book of 2.0. I'm not going to hold this forever. I'm already up a few percent, so I'll set a mental stop at breakeven and if it starts to drop again, I'll bail out.

regards ... stenz

[skiracer]

Stenzrob,
Just noticed that you're from Cherry Hill, NJ. I'm just down the street, the street being Rt. 70, from you in Toms River. Many pleasant memories of Cherry Hill, NJ. There was a time when I was at Garden State Racetrack everyday. It was like my office. My mother an Uncle Paulie were big fans of the races an I would take her everyday to meet him at the track during the season. My dad worked at Boeing aircraft in Ardmore, PA and would meet us at the track for the last 3 races everyday during the season. I'd like to have a nickel for every show I went to at the Latin Casino, especially after a winning day. I guess I just dated myself, but those were some of the best days of my life. Had alot of great friends from South Phila. area and that was our regular meeting place during the summer racing season at Garden State.

[stocks54]

Purchased some EFJI at 8.89.

Regards,
Stocks...

[stenzrob]

Stenzrob,
Just noticed that you're from Cherry Hill, NJ. I'm just down the street, the street being Rt. 70, from you in Toms River. Many pleasant memories of Cherry Hill, NJ. There was a time when I was at Garden State Racetrack everyday. It was like my office. My mother an Uncle Paulie were big fans of the races an I would take her everyday to meet him at the track during the season. My dad worked at Boeing aircraft in Ardmore, PA and would meet us at the track for the last 3 races everyday during the season. I'd like to have a nickel for every show I went to at the Latin Casino, especially after a winning day. I guess I just dated myself, but those were some of the best days of my life. Had alot of great friends from South Phila. area and that was our regular meeting place during the summer racing season at Garden State.I moved to Cherry Hill only about 5 years ago - by then the Garden State racetrack had become a flea market with an empty building. Now it's a hige expanse of nothing but dirt.

[skiracer]

Then I guess you're not really familar with the history of the area back in those days.
The track was a beautiful place and the Latin Casino got all the big name performers of the day. Sinatra, Martin,Davis, Mathis etc.

[stenzrob]

Great article that came originally from Forbes, now on Yahoo Finance.
http://biz.yahoo.com/fo/050324/7c24d9694f94a129c9a6057aea23057a_1.html

If you believe that hybrids or electrics will come to dominate auto drivetrains, Ixys (SYXI) is one good play.

[stenzrob]

Greetings, old friends. Any news of my demise is greatly exagerated, or possibly just wishful thinking.

ACU may be coming back around for another run up. I originally bought this at $17, bought some more at $14 after it bounced off the 200 day. Motley Fool just did a brief write-up on it, check the news links on the Yahoo ACU board. I'm just accumulating a bit at a time for a $25 target in six months to a year.

Patience required in this market. All my positions are currently down by varying amounts - CRDN, EFJI, ACU, TCOW, SYXI. Sitting on enough cash for one more good position.

PRFT still hasn't announced their secondary price, so I continue to wait for the inevitable drop. I hate secondaries.

regards ... stenz

[IIC]

You must be psychic Stenz...I was just wondering what the heck happened to you yesterday...BTW...I'm still heavy WITS...for better or worse...EPS after the bell Tuesday...IIC


Greetings, old friends. Any news of my demise is greatly exagerated, or possibly just wishful thinking.

ACU may be coming back around for another run up. I originally bought this at $17, bought some more at $14 after it bounced off the 200 day. Motley Fool just did a brief write-up on it, check the news links on the Yahoo ACU board. I'm just accumulating a bit at a time for a $25 target in six months to a year.

Patience required in this market. All my positions are currently down by varying amounts - CRDN, EFJI, ACU, TCOW, SYXI. Sitting on enough cash for one more good position.

PRFT still hasn't announced their secondary price, so I continue to wait for the inevitable drop. I hate secondaries.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

You must be psychic Stenz...I was just wondering what the heck happened to you yesterday...BTW...I'm still heavy WITS...for better or worse...EPS after the bell Tuesday...IIC
I still have one eye on WITS, unlike some of my other earlier picks, which I stopped watching altogether. I'll check the WITS report and decide if I like it again.

EFJI was a Forbes Streetwalker prospect in an article on March 22, after I had bought it.
http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/03/22/cz_ag_032205streetwalker9.html

CRDN, is noted in another Streetwalker blurb today.
http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/04/26/cz_ag_0426streetwalker14.html

ACU is a Motley Fool hidden gem.
http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05042212.htm

I selected each of these on my own, but it's nice to see an occasional write-up by a third party.

Does IIC have any opinion on IIG ?

[stenzrob]

EFJI in another streetwalker article.

http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/05/03/cz_ag_0503streetwalker2.html

PRFT pulled their secondary, will use debt instead to fund future acquisitions. Share price jumped on the news, I will wait for it to settle down. Despite having no fear, I also find it prudent not to attempt to jump onto moving objects.

[IIC]

I still have one eye on WITS, unlike some of my other earlier picks, which I stopped watching altogether. I'll check the WITS report and decide if I like it again.

EFJI was a Forbes Streetwalker prospect in an article on March 22, after I had bought it.
http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/03/22/cz_ag_032205streetwalker9.html

CRDN, is noted in another Streetwalker blurb today.
http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/04/26/cz_ag_0426streetwalker14.html

ACU is a Motley Fool hidden gem.
http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2005/mft05042212.htm

I selected each of these on my own, but it's nice to see an occasional write-up by a third party.

Does IIC have any opinion on IIG ?

Sorry about that...I forgot to answer...IMO IIG is a possibe long Intermediate type...Right now though...I am concentrating on DT's only...Best, IIC

[stenzrob]

EFJI in another streetwalker article.

http://www.forbes.com/strategies/2005/05/03/cz_ag_0503streetwalker2.html
EFJI quarter report is out - 75% increase in net income. Trailing PE (not including this report) is around 15. By my calculations, a conservative fair value is at least $12.50.

[B.J]

PRFT pulled their secondary, will use debt instead to fund future acquisitions. Share price jumped on the news, I will wait for it to settle down. Despite having no fear, I also find it prudent not to attempt to jump onto moving objects.

Kind of between a rock and a hard place for them. IMO secondaries are better than debt when rates are high (not that high yet, but rising fast). But, when the stock pummels on the news, they can't win then, either.

[stenzrob]

Kind of between a rock and a hard place for them. IMO secondaries are better than debt when rates are high (not that high yet, but rising fast). But, when the stock pummels on the news, they can't win then, either.Thanks for you input on this, BJ. PRFT has to keep acquiring in order to fuel growth ... organic growth rate is only about 20%, hard to justify a PE of 35 to 40 on that. Secondaries may be better for the companies finances in the long run, but the stock price always gets whacked. I have been burned on several secondaries this year. In every case, it has turned out to be best to bail out as soon as it is announced.

[thebign1]

Helloooooo, Has anybody seen Stenzrob? He's been gone for at least 2 month's.

[IIC]

Helloooooo, Has anybody seen Stenzrob? He's been gone for at least 2 month's.

Well. after he bailed on WITS...Who knows???...BTW...I am still watching your RADS

[mrmarket]

I miss Stenz

[IIC]

I miss Stenz

So do I...I liked his take/analyses...Doug(IIC)

[jiesen]

Yeah, I miss him, too. I hope he comes back soon, and I hope that wherever he is now, he's doing very well.

[stocks54]

I read his comments on NTST message board.

[stenzrob]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

[jiesen]

hey stenz, long time no see! Welcome back! I remember checking out VTIV from 20-24 maybe a year ago. Looked good to me then, but I never took the plunge. How's it coming along nowadays? The revenues and profits seem to be coming in pretty good, any sign of it picking up more from here?

[IIC]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

Good to see you Stenz...I still have WITS...sort of dragged down my overall performance last year as it was only up 19%. You mention CRDN...I bot that one last month...In at 45.02...My target is 50.

You ought to drop by more often...It seems we are getting some sharp new blood around here...Best, Doug(IIC)

[skiracer]

Hey guys. Just thought I'd drop by again, it's been a while.

My current favorite and largest holding is VTIV. Also in CRDN, RIO and CFK, and just posted on another thread about a small position I've had in TCX for quite a while.

best regards to all ... stenz

Stenzrob,
I've been in an out of VTIV on several occassions over the past 6 months and really do like the stock. A leader in their sector and group. What mystifies me about the stock is that it can't seem to hold above that $27.50 /28 range. I have caught spikes up on earnings reports and other good news but it never seems to be able to hold those levels. Where are you in from? I'm not in it at the moment but have been watching it of late for a move up.

[stenzrob]

I'm in VTIV from $21. It has been frustrating, one of those that I know is worth more, but the market hasn't caught on yet. It was on the IBD100 for a while, but fell off. I believe there is some confusion about growth due to tax benefit, which was accelerated. I posted about this a few times on the VTIV Yahoo board. This was a good thing for their financials, but leaves it looking like there is zero growth going forward. I am confident about the undervaluation and their prospects for real growth, so I will hold until it is realized, and hopefully get out near the top of the next cycle for this industry.

Also, the industry group fell from somewhere near the top of IBD list to near the bottom. I believe that the SFCC soap opera has hurt the industry in the eyes of institutions. If you're not familiar with the SFCC story, I suggest you look into it. It's a story of how a street favorite can fall from grace.

In other not-so-late breaking news, I was in HURC at $15 and sold at $18. Was looking to trade on a swing and botched it bigtime. Yet another argument for NOT selling at 15% gain point.

But, it's not all bad.

From my holdings ...
CFK breakout today.
CRDN breakout today.
RIO breakout today.

[stenzrob]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning. It rebounded. My reasoning was that poor Alcoa results would cause institutions to move out of metals, weakening the whole group.

Sold CFK on the pop yesterday, looking to trade it.

Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale. It also rebounded, so far the switch is a wash.

Bought SPIL on weakness today, which may have been due to Merrill Lynch downgrade. I have not seen the downgrade, but the text of it was posted by someone on the Yahoo board. If it's genuine, they did not downgrade based on valuation or business prospects, but just because it's gone up. I've seen this kind of downgrade on other stocks before, and the stock almost always continues on it's trend after a brief glitch of misguided analyst followers jumping off the moving train.

Still holding CRDN and VTIV. All those above I'm trading on opportunity, although any could also be a good hold. VTIV and CRDN are my "investments', which means I'm slower on the trigger.

By the way, IIC, there is an article today at bloomberg about analyst performance in 2005 that mentions WITS.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=agx9gqXhiliE

"Analysts' favorite when 2005 began was Witness Systems Inc. (WITS), a Roswell, Georgia, company that makes software to record and monitor calls by customers to company help centers. It rose 13 percent.
...
The other favorites went nowhere. "

regards ... stenz

[MEA_1956]

Another one of your old favs that is on a tare is GIGM. Up 43.22% here of late. This is my third time in, first one lost a little, ( it sold offf to fast) second time in at $1.67 and went just over $2.00 ( sold alot faster this time)

Also have my sights on TRCI in hopes HD supplies them with an offer that they can't refuse. Sent HD an email the other day just for shits and giggles and who knows maybe my $150.00 + will pan out.

Here in the next couple of days if you can find the time and you don't mind run your riskey screen, post the top ten and who knows maybe there will be something in there for all of us.

Hope the best for you and yours this year. Marlin

[IIC]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning. It rebounded. My reasoning was that poor Alcoa results would cause institutions to move out of metals, weakening the whole group.

Sold CFK on the pop yesterday, looking to trade it.

Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale. It also rebounded, so far the switch is a wash.

Bought SPIL on weakness today, which may have been due to Merrill Lynch downgrade. I have not seen the downgrade, but the text of it was posted by someone on the Yahoo board. If it's genuine, they did not downgrade based on valuation or business prospects, but just because it's gone up. I've seen this kind of downgrade on other stocks before, and the stock almost always continues on it's trend after a brief glitch of misguided analyst followers jumping off the moving train.

Still holding CRDN and VTIV. All those above I'm trading on opportunity, although any could also be a good hold. VTIV and CRDN are my "investments', which means I'm slower on the trigger.

By the way, IIC, there is an article today at bloomberg about analyst performance in 2005 that mentions WITS.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_dorfman&sid=agx9gqXhiliE

"Analysts' favorite when 2005 began was Witness Systems Inc. (WITS), a Roswell, Georgia, company that makes software to record and monitor calls by customers to company help centers. It rose 13 percent.
...
The other favorites went nowhere. "

regards ... stenz

Geez...I had it in my head that it was up 19%...Although my spreadsheet for my portfolio had it right...WITS has been a real drag on my overall portfolio...I will sell at 28.98...I promise...that will be +100%...Hope I don't have to wait till I'm 100 for it to happen...Doug

[stenzrob]

Geez...I had it in my head that it was up 19%...Although my spreadsheet for my portfolio had it right...WITS has been a real drag on my overall portfolio...I will sell at 28.98...I promise...that will be +100%...Hope I don't have to wait till I'm 100 for it to happen...Doug
19%, 13%, it all depends on the start and end dates. Good luck with that $28.98. I expect to be retired before that. LOL!

[stenzrob]

Sold RIO for a small profit this morning.
Bought COGT at $25.40 with the funds from RIO sale.
Bought SPIL on weakness today,
Still holding CRDN and VTIV.
Selling RIO turns out to have been a mistake, but COGT is also doing OK, up over 5% since I bought on Tuesday. There was m&a activity in COGT's business announced today, VISG acquired IDNX. This may be an indication that this is a good business area with lots of growth ahead - biometrics.
SPIL not so good ... yet.
CRDN continues to plow ahead. More mainstream news coverage lately on the need for more body armor certainly doesn't hurt.
If VTIV ever stops basing and starts moving again, I'm gonna' be rich. In the meantime, it just provides "stability" to my portfolio. Translation: My portfolio doesn't gain much despite other good ones while VTIV goes nowhere.

[DSteckler]

The technicals suggest VTIV will be heading lower short-term, Stenzrob. The 200DMA has been strong support.

[stenzrob]

Maybe so, Steckler. Thanks for the input. The reason I keep holding this thing despite lackluster performance is that I'm waiting for another acquisition announcement, or guidance increase, or something to give me one of those big one day pops. That seems to be the history of this one. When it does, I will unload at least half of my position.

[sisterwin2]

]Selling RIO turns out to have been a mistake, but COGT is also doing OK, up over 5% since I bought on Tuesday. There was m&a activity in COGT's business announced today, VISG acquired IDNX. This may be an indication that this is a good business area with lots of growth ahead - biometrics.
SPIL not so good ... yet.
CRDN continues to plow ahead. More mainstream news coverage lately on the need for more body armor certainly doesn't hurt.
If VTIV ever stops basing and starts moving again, I'm gonna' be rich. In the meantime, it just provides "stability" to my portfolio. Translation: My portfolio doesn't gain much despite other good ones while VTIV goes nowhere.[/QUOTE]

I have to ask why RIO is was a mistake, up today? I am long and plan to hold for the yr, nice dividen. Just wondering. Maybe I need to look back at your style.

Ty

[stenzrob]

I have to ask why RIO is was a mistake, up today? I am long and plan to hold for the yr, nice dividen. Just wondering. Maybe I need to look back at your style.

TyPerhaps you misunderstood - what turns out to have been a mistake was selling RIO, not having first bought it. I sold RIO because 1) it dropped below the short term upward trendline and 2) I thought that the Alcoa results could cause all metals stocks to stop their strength of the last several months and 3) I had a profit in it having bought it at $44 and didn't want to move from profit to loss, even on paper.

My style is that I find stocks that are growing revs and earnings for a good reason, are still reasonably valued by some metric, and have been increasing in price, and put them on a watch list. Then, if I can be patient, wait for a good opportunity to buy on some weakness. Depending on how strongly I feel about the company's prospects and how well I understand their business, I will hold through temporary paper loss. I will also hold for very large gains when I am fortunate enough to latch onto a winner. But, if there are signs of technical weakness, or I lose faith in the company for some reason, I will sell. Doesn't matter whether that is for a loss, a small gain, or a large gain.

RIO should be a good hold, I just thought there were better opportunities elsewhere, and I just don't have enough finds to hold evrything I like. Over the last two days, RIO has outperformed the COGT I replaced it with, but I feel pretty good about COGT as well.

I make a lot of mistakes. Still learning.

[stenzrob]

My old screen isn't turning up anything. So, I made a new one, http://tinyurl.com/d6pjk
As of today, produces 15 hits - HUG, JLG, RS, BRC, MVK, DBRN, ODFL, LUFK, AMED, WIRE, HZO, JAKK, DECK, MTEX, CFK.
Have not researched these yet for prospects going forward or TA, and won't be until sometime next week, since I'll be attempting to ski with the Youth Group from church this weekend. Looks like several oilfield supply and some clothing retailers. Check 'em out if you want to.

[sisterwin2]

Well Stenzrob,
Last night RIO was Cramer pick that prob. cause a bit of the gain today. I am just tuning my style. Since I have little funds to invest with I think the best way to go for now is Pick a stock that will keep the uptrend for a yr. then Sell. I do put stops in and change them frequently to protect profit. Goal is to keep them a Yr. for now. When I am more comfortable with my trading then will re-visit game plan. When you buy only 100 shares or so and include cost of trading, then taxes on short term vs long term, for now I will hold as long as I can safely.

May we all make money

[IIC]

RIO was a tough call IMO...It looked good...then it didn't...then it did.

I sold CRDN today in the 49.90's...Not that I don't like it...but I paid 45.02 a couple weeks ago with a target of 50...close enough as I did not like the market look last night...IIC

[stenzrob]

... the best way to go for now is Pick a stock that will keep the uptrend for a yr. then Sell....This strategy will work just as well when you have a pile of money. Simply buy more stocks, all of which will uptrend for a year, then sell. Or you could rotate, buying one each month that will uptrend for a year and sell. So now, if you would be so lind as to let me in on identifying the stocks that will keep an uptrend for a year, we can be friends.

[stenzrob]

RIO was a tough call IMO...It looked good...then it didn't...then it did.

I sold CRDN today in the 49.90's...Not that I don't like it...but I paid 45.02 a couple weeks ago with a target of 50...close enough as I did not like the market look last night...IICI believe CRDN could very well be a monster. See Motley Fool article posted today about it. I also have made a few posts on the Yahoo CRDN board. One was about story I heard on NPR this morning, this same NPR story was mentioned in the fool article. I owned it much lower, sold for a good profit, watched it continue to climb, got in again recently at $44. Beginning to wish I had more of that and less of VTIV.

[sisterwin2]

This strategy will work just as well when you have a pile of money. Simply buy more stocks, all of which will uptrend for a year, then sell. Or you could rotate, buying one each month that will uptrend for a year and sell. So now, if you would be so lind as to let me in on identifying the stocks that will keep an uptrend for a year, we can be friends.

this is where I have a bit of problem....

[stenzrob]

FYI - I jumped out of SPIL after hours today. I was down about 7% on the position, which was fine. Poorly timed buy, perhaps, (see "knife, falling") but looked like it was turning around today, up on decent volume in the face of down market. But, I bailed out based on the expectation that market reaction to INTC results will hurt everything semi related.

[stenzrob]

FYI - I jumped out of SPIL after hours today. I was down about 7% on the position, which was fine. Poorly timed buy, perhaps, (see "knife, falling") but looked like it was turning around today, up on decent volume in the face of down market. But, I bailed out based on the expectation that market reaction to INTC results will hurt everything semi related.Saved a few dollars there.
VTIV continues slow climb.
COGT announced follow-on orders.
Nasdaq in high volume decline, blood in the streets indeed.

[stenzrob]

Q: What did the Zen Master say to the hot dog vendor?
A: Make me one with everything.

[stenzrob]

CRDN contract announced. $70M worth of body armor side plates, to be delivered over just a few quarters. I suspect more will be coming.

[stenzrob]

Saw a great bumper sticker yesterday:
I child-proofed my house,
but they STILL get in !

Was just checking my intermittently managed marketocracy fund today, turns out it was only slightly down in the face of a nasdaq meltdown. Mostly due to CRDN, but also GIGM, ESCL and MIPS were all up today. But then I got to looking at info available about some of the top performing funds for long periods of time, and I noticed something ... high turnover. This is more fuel to the argument that buy-and-hold just doesn't do it.

Check my public page and these other two. One could look further at some of the other top performing funds and maybe reach a conclusion.

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=NkMaBbHbDpAnOfOlMaKiAbDe

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=DoPiAlBbDlAmIgAmMaKiAbBi

http://www.marketocracy.com/cgi-bin/WebObjects/Portfolio.woa/ps/FundPublicPage/source=OgHeBbCeDoGgFaIhMaKiAbDc

[stenzrob]

CRDN contract announced. $70M worth of body armor side plates, to be delivered over just a few quarters. I suspect more will be coming.After jumping on this news, there was a contract awarded to DHB the next day, and CRDN fell back for a day, only to advance strongly again to another new high today. I'm up almost 25% since buying at $43.75 in October, and that's after screwing up by successfully buying the bottom at $22, only to sell at $30 on a pop, thinking I could get back in cheaper on a retrace that never happened. Scored +36% gain from near the bottom, and another +24% currently, even with missing out from $30 to $43.75 (another 46%).

Don't know how much further this will just keep going, but consider this: with 5 analysts covering, earnings are projected to be +54% in FY'05, +38.8% in FY'06 and +40% annually for the next 5 years, return on equity is 26%, yet the trailing PE is only 33. If they only hit the projections, and the PE stays the same, the stock price could just follow the earnings gains at 40% per year, or about $70 by January 2007 and $100 by January 2008. Add to that the fact that the PE could be justified to be even higher.

Unless they miss the estimates or run up too fast and get overvalued, I see no reason to sell this one.

[DSteckler]

How long have you lived in Cherry Hill? My brother lives in Vorhees.

[MEA_1956]

GO GIGM........ Up over 72.89% AND, I feel there is more to come. I just hope that nothing slows them down. Marlin

[stenzrob]

How long have you lived in Cherry Hill? My brother lives in Vorhees.About 6 years. I'm pretty much at the Voorhees end of Cherry Hill, not very close to Camden.

[DSteckler]

I was in Vorhees a couple of months ago for my nephew's bar mitzvah. Stayed at a hotel in Cherry Hill.

[stenzrob]

GO GIGM........ Up over 72.89% AND, I feel there is more to come. I just hope that nothing slows them down. MarlinThere was what, like a 2 year delay between the initial surge and the current follow through? I'm not in that one anymore in real life, but there is a chunk of it helping my marketocracy fund. They appear to have done a nice job of moving from old-school record stores to online media distribution and now also online gambling. Congrats on scoring big on this one, MEA.

[stenzrob]

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vtiv,uu[h,a]waolyiay[de][pc10!c50!f] [vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G (http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=vtiv,uu[h,a]waolyiay[de][pc10!c50!f][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lp14,3,3]&pref=G)

VTIV has quietly sneaked back above the 10 week moving average, on below average volume.

Note that this same pattern occured in late September 2004 and July 2005. In each of those previous cases, it went on to new highs a few months later.

[DSteckler]

VTIV looks nice, thanks.

[stenzrob]

VTIV looks nice, thanks.
The technicals suggest VTIV will be heading lower short-term, Stenzrob. The 200DMA has been strong support.
Have you changed your mind about this, then?

[DSteckler]

Yes. The daily technicals have improved somewhat.

[stenzrob]

Don't know how much further this will just keep going ...CRDN is like the energizer bunny. Still holding and watching. One guy posted on the CRDN board that the Hamas victory in Palestinian election is good for defense stocks. Cynical, but perhaps true.

[stenzrob]

VTIV made acquisition announcement this morning that may finally give this thing the push it needed to get rolling again.
CFK posted blowout earnings last night, I'm looking to jump back in it.

[stenzrob]

A few updates
- I had bailed out of CRDN looking for a pullback. Got one today and played the bounce, but not holding it given the volume of the selloff. Posted about it on the CRDN board.
- Got back into CFK at $15.50 today after it bounced off the 50 day.
- Story today about relatively new VTIV subsidiary inChord expansion and hiring. Posted about this on the VIV board.

So, I'm currently holding VTIV, CFK, COGT and TCX.
Watching CRDN and a few others.

[Websman]

A few updates
- I had bailed out of CRDN looking for a pullback. Got one today and played the bounce, but not holding it given the volume of the selloff. Posted about it on the CRDN board.
- Got back into CFK at $15.50 today after it bounced off the 50 day.
- Story today about relatively new VTIV subsidiary inChord expansion and hiring. Posted about this on the VIV board.

So, I'm currently holding VTIV, CFK, COGT and TCX.
Watching CRDN and a few others.

I saw your posts on the CFK board at Yahoo. I got back in CFK today at $14.95. It looks like we may do well. I hope we have a fun ride up.

[stenzrob]

I saw your posts on the CFK board at Yahoo. I got back in CFK today at $14.95. It looks like we may do well. I hope we have a fun ride up.Webs,
CFK got whacked along with the rest of oilfield service (OSX), but seems to have found support at 12.50. I bought some more today. You still in this?

VTIV has popped back up to the top of it's six-month long trading range over the last few days, so I took the opportunity to lighten my overweighted position.

Portfolio now about
20% VTIV
20% PARL
15% CFK
10% COGT

I've also been playing a few penny stocks lately just for the heck of it, bought IDWD at 73 cents and sold for 90 cents later that day. Bought GMCC for 1.30 a few weeks ago, missed the good opportunity to sell for over $2 and still have it.

Out of CRDN for a nice profit, I expect it to fall after report on Tuesday.

regards ... stenz

[Websman]

Webs,
CFK got whacked along with the rest of oilfield service (OSX), but seems to have found support at 12.50. I bought some more today. You still in this?



I had to sell. I couldn't take the pain...lol I'll be looking to get back in soon though.

Take a look at NICH. I waited too late to catch this move, but I'll be stalking it for another opportunity.

SVL did well for me today.

[stenzrob]

I had to sell. I couldn't take the pain...lol I'll be looking to get back in soon though.
Hey webs, I finally sold half my CFK about a week ago for 17.50. Sold the shares bought at 15.50 in early Feb for the small short term gain, holding the ones bought just above 12.50 in late Feb until next spring for long term gains.

Still waiting for the shorts to get burned in PARL, I have averaged down there a bit.

My new find is FTEK. They make coal-fired plants more efficient and form less slag, and scrubber to clean up the exhaust. Have had some contracts in China.

Got back into PRFT again after a long period of ignoring it.

Seriously wishing I had stayed in GIGM when I found that thing a few years ago!

best regards ... stenz

[Websman]

Stenz, I bought CFK again at 15.38. I'm considering taking profits if it continues showing weakness.

I very close to buying PARL again. I agree that a lot of shorts will get burned very soon.

I'll check those other picks of yours out.

[stenzrob]

Stenz, I bought CFK again at 15.38. I'm considering taking profits if it continues showing weakness.

I very close to buying PARL again. I agree that a lot of shorts will get burned very soon.

I'll check those other picks of yours out.I am not, repeat NOT, recommending GIGM at this price. Merely a blast from the past, and still a position in my marketocracy portfolio. That's really the only reason I still even notice when it goes anywhere.

I do love the smell of burning shorts.

[Lyehopper]

Great to hear from you Stenz.... Don't be such a stranger dude!

btw.... I added PARL today below $26.50 myself.

[stenzrob]

Great to hear from you Stenz.... Don't be such a stranger dude!

btw.... I added PARL today below $26.50 myself.Can't help it, I know of no stranger dude than myself.

[stenzrob]

My new find is FTEK. They make coal-fired plants more efficient and form less slag, and scrubber to clean up the exhaust. Have had some contracts in China.Note average volume continuing to build with high relative strength. ROE is 26%.
On 5/3, this appeared in a forbes article, http://www.forbes.com/2006/05/03/hoku-englobal-bronco-in_jo_0503soapbox_inl.html
"While obvious, pure-play alternative energy companies have already been bid up dramatically, there are a few smaller-cap peripheral plays that are worthy of consideration.

Given the abundance of coal within America's borders, coal-fired power-generation businesses should offer above-average growth opportunities. Growth in China and emerging market economies favors coal-fired electricity generation, and many of those plants will require emissions control. Companies that help to combat the pollution consequences of coal generation will have the wind at their back.

Our favorite is Fuel Tech N.V. Fuel Tech helps utility and industrial customers reduce nitrogen oxide emissions, which in turn helps reduce air pollution. Sales jumped 110% in the fourth quarter of 2005, and pre-tax profits nearly doubled as well. We have added Fuel Tech to the model portfolio this month and expect earnings to be released May 9."

regards ... stenz

[Lyehopper]

Note average volume continuing to build with high relative strength. ROE is 26%.
On 5/3, this appeared in a forbes article, http://www.forbes.com/2006/05/03/hoku-englobal-bronco-in_jo_0503soapbox_inl.html
"While obvious, pure-play alternative energy companies have already been bid up dramatically, there are a few smaller-cap peripheral plays that are worthy of consideration.

Given the abundance of coal within America's borders, coal-fired power-generation businesses should offer above-average growth opportunities. Growth in China and emerging market economies favors coal-fired electricity generation, and many of those plants will require emissions control. Companies that help to combat the pollution consequences of coal generation will have the wind at their back.

Our favorite is Fuel Tech N.V. Fuel Tech helps utility and industrial customers reduce nitrogen oxide emissions, which in turn helps reduce air pollution. Sales jumped 110% in the fourth quarter of 2005, and pre-tax profits nearly doubled as well. We have added Fuel Tech to the model portfolio this month and expect earnings to be released May 9."

regards ... stenz
Doug-E-Fresh (IIC) likes FTEK too Stenz.... There was a little discussion on his thread about it and some other tickers in the group a couple of weeks back.

You still holding your PARL or did you get shaken out yesterday?.... I'm still holding on.

[stenzrob]

You still holding your PARL or did you get shaken out yesterday?.... I'm still holding on.
Took some battered PARL shares off the table today, same with COGT. Holding the rest for the eventual turnaround.

[stenzrob]

FTEK breakout to new high today, volume running above average again. Certainly not the only stock in the market doing that, but looks very good.
I bought at $16 and $17 (give or take a few cents) in March and April.
Added some more at 17.50 yesterday.
At $18.40 today, that's 8,904,665,768% return on an annualized basis on the last block!

[IIC]

FTEK breakout to new high today, volume running above average again. Certainly not the only stock in the market doing that, but looks very good.
I bought at $16 and $17 (give or take a few cents) in March and April.
Added some more at 17.50 yesterday.
At $18.40 today, that's 8,904,665,768% return on an annualized basis on the last block!

LOL...nice job...I was busy watching GFIG breakout.

BTW...the reason FTEK broke out today was because I posted it on IIC's Killer Watch Lists last night..

[stenzrob]

FTEK and VTIV report in the morning.
PARL is running nicely, glad I only sold a bit in desperation near the bottom.

[Rob]

At $18.40 today, that's 8,904,665,768% return on an annualized basis on the last block!That's pretty awesome. Of course, everyone realizes that is still on the way steep portion of the curve, and similar losses would offset it.

FTEK and VTIV report in the morning.And MFLX reports after the bell today.

[stenzrob]

FTEK and VTIV reports not well received by the market, but I have confidence in prospects for both.

PARL provided a glance at upcoming results that looked great, so it sold off. I picked up some shares at 26.50.

[stenzrob]

FTEK and VTIV reports not well received by the market, but I have confidence in prospects for both.

PARL provided a glance at upcoming results that looked great, so it sold off. I picked up some shares at 26.50.
New analyst coverage on VTIV this morning by BofA: buy - $37 target. Still holding core position from $26 and waiting for technical turn to buy back trading shares that were sold just above $32 a month ago.

FTEK bouncing, this will breakout again soon.

PARL comments on the PARL thread.

BOOM shows on my screen. Had some, but sold for very small profit when they first announced SNPE unloading. Pricing announced, this could run once the shares are off the block.

CRYP shows on my screen. Has been a bit unpredictable lately, with news of major customers coming and going. Needs more study about who and why.

regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

Just bought some CRYP for $27.50.

Beat estimates, raised guidance. Trailing PE is less than half the earnings growth rate.

[stenzrob]

New analyst coverage on VTIV this morning by BofA: buy - $37 target. Still holding core position from $26 and waiting for technical turn to buy back trading shares that were sold just above $32 a month ago.Still waiting for a technical turn.


FTEK bouncing, this will breakout again soon.News of new customers in Europe. It's a bit of a wild ride, but this company (and stock) has very nice potential to grow, grow, grow.

[mrmarket]

I like it too, Stenz.

[stenzrob]

I like it too, Stenz.I'd love to see one of your inimitable write-ups on this one, Ernie.

[mrmarket]

I'd love to see one of your inimitable write-ups on this one, Ernie.


probably won't...this one is too close to my business interests.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIM today for $6.60/share. It was on my watch list and took a big dip for no good reason, so I bought some.

[grebnet]

Youre probably why my order didnt fill right away . I put in order at 1:44 for SIM with limit of $6.59 got a small piece then. Order just completed filling at 3:53.
I had sold my position back on 4/26 at $7.52 and been waiting for a pull back ever since... I hope we are right.

[stenzrob]

Sold the SIM today for $6.92. 5%, one week.
Like the stock, but decided just to play the oversold bounce.
May try it again later.

[stenzrob]

Sold the SIM today for $6.92. 5%, one week.
Like the stock, but decided just to play the oversold bounce.
May try it again later.Back in SIM at $6.51.

[DSteckler]

Sim, sim, salabim?

[grebnet]

Back in SIM at $6.51.

You have played that better than me, I am still holding and admire your flip. I may join you on the next run.

[stenzrob]

You have played that better than me, I am still holding and admire your flip. I may join you on the next run.greb, do you follow any other steelmakers as an indicator of possible SIM moves?

For example, this morning I saw STLD up about 4% and SIM not up at that time. Took the opportunity to buy before it caught up. Obviously, there's always the chance it won't. For each of my stocks, I try to find at least one other (usually a larger, more well covered one) to use to follow industry developments and price movements.

[grebnet]

greb, do you follow any other steelmakers as an indicator of possible SIM moves?

For example, this morning I saw STLD up about 4% and SIM not up at that time. Took the opportunity to buy before it caught up. Obviously, there's always the chance it won't. For each of my stocks, I try to find at least one other (usually a larger, more well covered one) to use to follow industry developments and price movements.

I dont typically do this , althoug I have been attracted to some cheaper restoration stocks because of HOM, ie RGMI

I will try your suggestion and see what I could gain from this.

[peanuts]

greb, do you follow any other steelmakers as an indicator of possible SIM moves?

For example, this morning I saw STLD up about 4% and SIM not up at that time. Took the opportunity to buy before it caught up. Obviously, there's always the chance it won't. For each of my stocks, I try to find at least one other (usually a larger, more well covered one) to use to follow industry developments and price movements.

I have a steel industry index with approx 35 stocks that I have set up from the beginning of this year which tracks the overall industry moves and has been great for what you are looking for. If you want more info, I'd be happy to share.

also, I'm 100% out of SIM... got a nice 6% myself

[stenzrob]

I have a steel industry index with approx 35 stocks that I have set up from the beginning of this year which tracks the overall industry moves and has been great for what you are looking for. If you want more info, I'd be happy to share.

also, I'm 100% out of SIM... got a nice 6% myselfIsn't there already a steel industry index? Anyway, yeah peanuts, if you've got a list, that would be great - I can make it a portfolio at marketwatch or elsewhere and get a quick look at news or commentary on all of them at a glance.

[DSteckler]

Isn't there already a steel industry index?


http://www.bullsector.com/steel.html

[grebnet]

I took $6.95 for SIM

p.s. I'm impressed that I sold 3000 shares all in one block , considering the relatively low volume and I was right at the bid. I expected it to be piecemealed (sp?).

[stenzrob]

http://www.bullsector.com/steel.htmlThis is cool. Thanks. There is so much for me to learn, it's depressing sometimes.

[stenzrob]

I took $6.95 for SIM

p.s. I'm impressed that I sold 3000 shares all in one block , considering the relatively low volume and I was right at the bid. I expected it to be piecemealed (sp?).That is surprising, my trades have been executed a few hundred at a time. Given the strength of the sector, I'm holding out for more this time, maybe 7.50 or 8.00. Will just have to watch the action.

[peanuts]

Isn't there already a steel industry index? Anyway, yeah peanuts, if you've got a list, that would be great - I can make it a portfolio at marketwatch or elsewhere and get a quick look at news or commentary on all of them at a glance.

I am involved in the steel industry... I know it better than any analyst or fund manager... that I CAN be 100% sure of. I knew of the current up trend about 1.5 years ago. Here are the stocks which I list as my steel industry index through Yahoo! Some are not steel producers or fabricators, but their business depends, in large part, to the health of the steel industry:

AKS
ATI
BYUA.pk
CECE
CGA
CHAP
CLF
CMC
CRS
FRD
GGB
GNA
HSVLY
IIIN
IPS
MEA
MT
NGCN.pk
NSS
NUE
NWPX
NX
OS
PCP
PKX
RIO
ROCK
RS
SCHN
SGG
SHLO
SID
SIM
STLD
STTX
TKR
TONS
TS
TXI
USAP
WOR
WPSC
X
ZEUS

[stenzrob]

I am involved in the steel industry... I know it better than any analyst or fund manager... that I CAN be 100% sure of. I knew of the current up trend about 1.5 years ago. Here are the stocks which I list as my steel industry index through Yahoo! Some are not steel producers or fabricators, but their business depends, in large part, to the health of the steel industry:
Thanks. What about BOOM? Know much about them?

[peanuts]

Thanks. What about BOOM? Know much about them?

I don't think that their success or failure depends on the health of the steel industry. I think they are tied to the oil industry and reconstruction more than anything else. Looks like a good play on hurricane damage... but I'm not well versed in their operations to know much more.

[billyjoe]

Peanuts,
Which on your list impress you ?

billyjoe

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
Which on your list impress you ?

billyjoe


I am fond of NSS for personal reasons- my long term holding this year. I also like POSCO (PKX) and US Steel (X)

The smaller caps can be played for short term gains.

I only buy the profitable companies, but WPSC could be huge... litigation will go their way against Massey Fergusson, but they won't see a cent for years. And, they have a great galvanizing line that will see huge demand from the highway bill passed last year.

I like SIM for easy 6-10% moves. I try not to get greedy, but I got burned once when I bought at 7.75... damn! Their operations are impressive.

NUE is overpriced at $125, in my opinion... but that doesn't mean it could not go higher.

The specialty steel makers are where it's at: CRS, PCP, USAP, ATI... they're hot

Raw material suppliers will be great for the long term... RIO, CLF

And I like CECE for the environmental legislation that the industry will have to face sooner or later.

If you have any company-specific questions, please private message me.

[stenzrob]

I like SIM for easy 6-10% moves. I try not to get greedy, but I got burned once when I bought at 7.75... damn! Their operations are impressive.
Out of SIM again at 7.25.
Bought at 6.51 yesterday.
11%, one day. Like peanuts said - don't get greedy.

[DSteckler]

Nice trading! You got in yesterday one cent above the low and out today three cents below the high. Impressive!

[stenzrob]

Nice trading! You got in yesterday one cent above the low and out today three cents below the high. Impressive!Again I looked at STLD to compare. At the time I sold, SIM was up 3 times as much % as STLD. If this busts through and runs back to $8 or more, the trading won't be so impressive. My largest positions are still FTEK and PARL, followed closely by VTIV and CRYP.

[peanuts]

Out of SIM again at 7.25.
Bought at 6.51 yesterday.
11%, one day. Like peanuts said - don't get greedy.

stenzrob,

buy TIII today at 2.6, sell next week at 2.9

Easy money

don't buy too much... volume is low and someone will notice what you are trying to do

btw: nice trading

[stenzrob]

Back into SIM yet again today at $6.80. Again, bought when this was down while other steels were up. With the finish in the last half hour, position is up 4% so far.

I think that the ADR ratio changed today - the underlying Mexican stock split 3:1, but SIM the ADR did not.

[stenzrob]

stenzrob,

buy TIII today at 2.6, sell next week at 2.9

Easy money

don't buy too much... volume is low and someone will notice what you are trying to do

btw: nice trading
This is an interesting little company, peanuts. Haven't bought any yet, but if I do, I'm not sure I would sell at 2.9. Might just wait for a bigger spike. I'll keep an eye on it for a while.

[peanuts]

This is an interesting little company, peanuts. Haven't bought any yet, but if I do, I'm not sure I would sell at 2.9. Might just wait for a bigger spike. I'll keep an eye on it for a while.

I am disappointed with this week's TIII performance, but long term, I am 100% on your side here. TIII feels like a multi-bagger over the long term (1+ years). I am holding a relatively small amount in my LT portfolio. I may add to my short term portfolio when it starts to go back up. I'll hold onto what I have for now.

I looked at SIM all day but for some reason I just could not hit the buy button. I even wrote an order, but didn't click the buy. I think you made a good call... ballsy, but if SIM still behaves the way it has been, you'll make some easy money. :^) good luck

[stenzrob]

... ballsy, but if SIM still behaves the way it has been, you'll make some easy money. :^) good luck
Easy money. You have used that phrase several times now. I do not understand that phrase. Don't believe such a thing exists. Maybe it's a no-brainer, I'm qualified to trade those!

[peanuts]

Easy money. You have used that phrase several times now. I do not understand that phrase. Don't believe such a thing exists. Maybe it's a no-brainer, I'm qualified to trade those!

I hold three separate portfolios: short, mid, and long term. My short term stocks are good for anywhere from 6 to 14% quick moves... maybe in the same day, but they usually make these moves within a week. I call that easy money, because it doesn't take too much DD or TA to figure out which stocks are good for these types of moves, it doesn't take long to make the targeted gains, and I can do all of it with trade triggers. I use other people's ideas a lot because I don't have a screener for this portfolio, therefore, I don't trade all that often in it (maybe 2 trades a week). For these ST picks, I do set stop losses. I don't keep track of my record, but I do have more wins than losses... and the losses were kept to a minimum. Sometimes, I will short term trade my long term or mid term picks.

Basically, I call it "easy money" because a lot of the time I'll check my trades and say to myself, "man, that was easy"... and then I wonder why I still have a regular job.

no brainers, to me are trades that take absolutely no thought... I've yet to not think about my trades, but I think "easy money" and "no-brainers" are pretty much the same thing :^)

[skiracer]

[QUOTE=peanuts]I hold three separate portfolios: short, mid, and long term. My short term stocks are good for anywhere from 6 to 14% quick moves... maybe in the same day, but they usually make these moves within a week. I call that easy money, because it doesn't take too much DD or TA to figure out which stocks are good for these types of moves, it doesn't take long to make the targeted gains, and I can do all of it with trade triggers. I use other people's ideas a lot because I don't have a screener for this portfolio, therefore, I don't trade all that often in it (maybe 2 trades a week). For these ST picks, I do set stop losses. I don't keep track of my record, but I do have more wins than losses... and the losses were kept to a minimum. Sometimes, I will short term trade my long term or mid term picks.

Basically, I call it "easy money" because a lot of the time I'll check my trades and say to myself, "man, that was easy"... and then I wonder why I still have a regular job.

Peanuts,
I'm not out to discredit you but please post those trades when you are ready to take them or at the point of buying them because I'm from Missouri an I really have to see it beforehand. I've been at this for probably longer than you are old and my account balance is decent. I have never called any trade easy money or found any trade to be easy money where it was like I knew it was money in the bank. The best that I have ever done for myself is to limit the losses and find the best r/r for myself. I also know every trade trigger, entry, and stop an exit as if I had it tattoed on my forehead so when someone states what you have stated to me about not remembering or forgetting the particulars I have to question that. I'm operating with a decent amount an I know where every penny is at every moment an all the particulars that go with the trades. Don't disillusion yourself about that job thing. Start trading for a living and depend on those earnings to provide a living for you an your family and without any backup an you'll see the difference and won't be wondering about why you don't have a job because you'll be looking for a good paying one.

[peanuts]

Peanuts,
I'm not out to discredit you but please post those trades when you are ready to take them or at the point of buying them because I'm from Missouri an I really have to see it beforehand.

That's OK, I'd rather interact with critical thinkers. Would you care to do this publicly or privately? I'd prefer privately because some of the trades I make are on low volume / low float stocks and the price can be manipulated by others. Some think I'm crazy for thinking this, but I feel more comfortable about my trades when I keep them to myself. Maybe another thread should be created for some of the others (rather than use Stenzrob's thread)... I'll let you create the thread if you want.

I've been at this for probably longer than you are old and my account balance is decent.
You're probably right. Some people swear that fresh ideas are needed and innovation and expansion are the best ways to maintain that cutting edge character to some of the top entities.

I also know every trade trigger, entry, and stop an exit as if I had it tattoed on my forehead so when someone states what you have stated to me about not remembering or forgetting the particulars I have to question that. I'm operating with a decent amount an I know where every penny is at every moment an all the particulars that go with the trades.

I don't know to what you are referring. Did I say that I forgot something? All my trades are documented in my Ameritrade account. I do my own taxes each year, so I know what my capital gains are. I'm impressed that you know where all your money is at all times... I don't do that, I'd probably lose my hair at a much faster rate if I did. Like I said, I have a real day job, so my ability to watch all my portfolios at the same time and know what's going on with each stock is a tough thing to do. Some intra-day trading opportunities arrise and I'll take time out of the day to do that, or if I'm not too busy at work, I'll come to this site and also periodically check my ST and MT accounts. Trade triggers work well for me.

Don't disillusion yourself about that job thing. Start trading for a living and depend on those earnings to provide a living for you an your family and without any backup an you'll see the difference and won't be wondering about why you don't have a job because you'll be looking for a good paying one.

HAHAHA Thanks for the words of encouragement. I hear that Starbucks give benefits for part time workers. I can pour coffee just as easily as I manage the sales for my co. Trading each day might not be best thing for me (the extent of my family), but a man can have dreams, right?

[stenzrob]

So, back to MY positions. News from FTEK today about more orders in the US. This is in addition to their burgeoning business in China and elsewhere in Asia. Looks like this will open up. FTEK is currently my largest position.

[peanuts]

So, back to MY positions. News from FTEK today about more orders in the US. This is in addition to their burgeoning business in China and elsewhere in Asia. Looks like this will open up. FTEK is currently my largest position.

looks interesting. I'll be cautiously watching it. Looks like a small gap way back at 11 and change, but I'm not sure if it's on its way to fill that gap or if the news will catapult the price.

[Rob]

FTEK is currently my largest position.Pretty nice move today.

[stenzrob]

Back into SIM yet again today at $6.80.Jumped back out of SIM again at $7.10. 4.4% in one day. I don't like the way the volume seems to have completely dried up here. Made three round trips in the last two weeks for gains of 5%, 11% and 4.4%.

Would have been nice if FTEK had held onto those early gains, but I'm not trading that one.

[peanuts]

Jumped back out of SIM again at $7.10. 4.4% in one day. I don't like the way the volume seems to have completely dried up here. Made three round trips in the last two weeks for gains of 5%, 11% and 4.4%.

Stenzrob,

I am now trading on PACT. Nice volume, big price swings, good company. I'm in at 7.60 today.

Like SIM, it may also look good as a LT investment

[stenzrob]

FTEK is moving nicely. All my stocks are up today except PARL, VTIV about 1%, CRYP about 2%.

Just bought some PTEN for $31.20. My value screen shows this severely undervalued, and the chart shows MACD crossover and increasing volume heading up. Oops, I forgot to check the TRIX!

[Lyehopper]

FTEK is moving nicely.
What's your target on FTEK Stenz?

[stenzrob]

What's your target on FTEK Stenz?About $25.

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
Cramer was heavily touting FTEK on Mad Money last night.

billyjoe

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
Cramer was heavily touting FTEK on Mad Money last night.

billyjoeThanks billyjoe. I still like it anyway.

[stenzrob]

For the unusually curious, my current approximate portfolio weighting:
25% FTEK
20% PTEN
20% VTIV
15% PARL
15% CRYP
5% stranded in GMCC that I forgot to sell before the SEC shut them down.

[Websman]

Speaking of stranded stocks, check out DHB.. It's been halted for a few days. Looks like the CEO is about to get his reward for ripping off the shareholders.

[billyjoe]

Stenz,
I'm not a big fan of Cramer's, but I wrote down 6 symbols he was high on yesterday at 6 P.M. Here's what they did today. I'm not cherry picking, these are the only one's I wrote down . The first 5 he called his top orphan stocks. Hardly covered by analysts.

BOOM +17.87%
ELRC +4.06
NTCT +6.13
LAYN +10.30
EGY +11.48
FTEK +4.85

billyjoe

[Lyehopper]

Stenz,
I'm not a big fan of Cramer's, but I wrote down 6 symbols he was high on yesterday at 6 P.M. Here's what they did today. I'm not cherry picking, these are the only one's I wrote down . The first 5 he called his top orphan stocks. Hardly covered by analysts.

BOOM +17.87%
ELRC +4.06
NTCT +6.13
LAYN +10.30
EGY +11.48
FTEK +4.85

billyjoe
Nice work BillyJoe.... Looks like they all gapped up this morning too. Some continued upward and some sold down....

Now we need a "Crammer Watch thread" so we can daytrade Crammers picks. Remember GEHL after it gapped up when he mentioned it as an ethanol play?lol.... Would have made a great short about two days later.

[stenzrob]

Stenz,
I'm not a big fan of Cramer's, but I wrote down 6 symbols he was high on yesterday at 6 P.M. Here's what they did today. I'm not cherry picking, these are the only one's I wrote down . The first 5 he called his top orphan stocks. Hardly covered by analysts.

BOOM +17.87%
ELRC +4.06
NTCT +6.13
LAYN +10.30
EGY +11.48
FTEK +4.85

billyjoeBOOM has been on my watchlist for some time. I had some, sold it at $34.70 when they first announced that the majority holder was selling out. It went up about 10% from there for some unknown reason, only to fall below where I sold once they did the deal. Popped on new contract news at the beginning of June, and is settling down again amidst all the market turmoil. I still like it, and am waiting patiently for another good opportunity to jump back in again. Unless there is a (continued) total market meltdown, somewhere between $28 and $30 is probably the best price I'll get it for.

FTEK announced another small contract. It all adds up.

[stenzrob]

For the unusually curious, my current approximate portfolio weighting:
25% FTEK
20% PTEN
20% VTIV
15% PARL
15% CRYP
5% stranded in GMCC that I forgot to sell before the SEC shut them down.FYI, on 6/13, sold CRYP and PTEN for losses of about 15%. That put me at 35% cash in IRA. Have been at 25% cash in non-IRA since selling some PARL at $27.84. Waiting patiently for confirmed new market rally, per IBD.

Still holding FTEK - mentioned again in Motley Fool Hidden Gems, in article titled "Stocks With Promise That Wall Street Ignores (http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/mfool/SIG=1215pft85/*http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06061705.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y)".
Still holding some VTIV and PARL.

[stenzrob]

That put me at 35% cash in IRA. Have been at 25% cash in non-IRA since selling some PARL at $27.84. Waiting patiently for confirmed new market rally, per IBD.
Rally confirmation yesterday. So according to plan, I bought some BOOM at $33.50 and PTEN at $28 in IRA, now 98% invested. Also JLG at $20.50 in non-IRA, now 140% invested in that account.

[stenzrob]

Rally confirmation yesterday. So according to plan, I bought some BOOM at $33.50 and PTEN at $28 in IRA, now 98% invested. Also JLG at $20.50 in non-IRA, now 140% invested in that account.Wow. There was a huge buying surge in JLG in the last half hour or so.

[grebnet]

JLG

I liked this when Stenzrob posted it and have been holding since.........cha -ching

Thanks Stenzrob

[stenzrob]

Just wanted to mention EXP. Boring business, drywall and concrete. Valuation shows a PEG ratio of under 0.4 which suggests that it's undervalued IF the growth projections are right. Technically, looks like a cup with handle, also note the 50 day crossing back above the 200 day ema. Pivot point should be around $45 somewhere. Several intersting articles lately by Motley Fool, Forbes, etc. showing cement business to be strong going forward due to infrastructure work being planned.

TXI, a competitor, posted good results recently.

I bought some EXP at $42.45 back in mid-November. Looking for maybe $60 in 3 to 6 months.

Do your own DD - feel free to agree or disagree.

[peanuts]

Just wanted to mention EXP. Boring business, drywall and concrete. Valuation shows a PEG ratio of under 0.4 which suggests that it's undervalued IF the growth projections are right. Technically, looks like a cup with handle, also note the 50 day crossing back above the 200 day ema. Pivot point should be around $45 somewhere. Several intersting articles lately by Motley Fool, Forbes, etc. showing cement business to be strong going forward due to infrastructure work being planned.

TXI, a competitor, posted good results recently.

I bought some EXP at $42.45 back in mid-November. Looking for maybe $60 in 3 to 6 months.

Do your own DD - feel free to agree or disagree.

also look at USLM, same area, more specific to lime. They sell alot to Steel and will move into flue gas desulfurization

[mrmarket]

Holy Shit...it's Stenzrob. Well we lost Steckler but we got back Stenz...good trade.

[stenzrob]

Holy Shit...it's Stenzrob. Well we lost Steckler but we got back Stenz...good trade.
Good for at least +15%.

[Websman]

Holy Shit...it's Stenzrob. Well we lost Steckler but we got back Stenz...good trade.


Steckler didn't like me....I wonder why?

[stenzrob]

EXP moving nicely out of several month base.
Could be a nice run a'comin.

[stenzrob]

Another position in my current portfolio is PTEN. I'm down about 20% on it at this point. A supplier of drilling rigs, the stock price moves with the price of natural gas and oil, although their actual business is not as directly dependent on that as the actual producers. According to estimates, the PEG is about 0.3, so like EXP, it is way undervalued IF the estimates are reasonable. The price recently got down to about where it broke out 2 years ago, so this could be an area of support. It has been in a downtrend for about 1 year, but recently turned at a higher low than the last turn. Looking at a 3 year weekly chart, I drew upper and lower trend lines looking for a break in the overall trend. I bought at $28 when it broke above the upper line, which turned out to be a short term peak (oh well). I recently doubled my position at $23 when it turned around at the higher low. Volume has also picked up, suggesting that this could be the bottom.

One other twist to PTEN compared to their peers is a recent settlement arising from the fact that the former CFO embezzled a large sum of money from the company back in 2005. The settlement, announced in November 2006, includes new corporate governance measures. This issue has caused PTEN to sell at a discount to their peers, and if this is now behind them, could cause the discount to be erased over some period of time.

[stenzrob]

Just bought some IMOS. Low PEG, just posted Dec revenues above estimates. Has been trading in a range (basing) for several years, and recent approach to the top of the range has been on increased volume. In particular, the 3 year weekly chart shows possible strength.

[stenzrob]

FYI, I sold my real-life SCLD today at $1.20 for a 27% gain from where I bought in mid-December at 95 and 91 cents. Will be looking for an opportunity to buy it back at around $1.05 or so.

Currently down a bit on my IMOS position, but it's still acting OK. It is still within an uptrend started 12/18. Looking over the list of articles written about IMOS on the Yahoo quote page, see there are an assortment of articles, one touting it's growth rate by Motley Fool, another pointing out it's low price/book value from Forbes Streetwalker, and a recent one called "Buy ChipMOS On The Cheap" that points out valuation ratios just paid for one of it's competitors in a private equity takeover. All of these articles confirm what my screen already told me - healthy growth at a discount.

[peanuts]

FYI, I sold my real-life SCLD today at $1.20 for a 27% gain from where I bought in mid-December at 95 and 91 cents. Will be looking for an opportunity to buy it back at around $1.05 or so...

Excellent, tell us when you buy it back! :)

[stenzrob]

Another brief article today highlighting EXP as "Bargain Growth".
http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/16/dsf-chea-growth-pf-ii-cx_sw_0116sf.html

[stenzrob]

EXP is moving nicely this week. Given the valuation (PEG=0.4), and that ROE is like 40%, this one could have the potential to go quite a ways before stopping.

Currently holding CRDN, EXP, PTEN, IMOS.
Considering SIM, BLUD, VDSI, BOOM, all of which I have traded profitably in the last several months, but am currently out.

[stenzrob]

I think CRDN is on sale here.. Grabbed me some..
Hey Runner,
Did you see where Cramer had Joel Moskowitz, Ceradyne CEO, on the phone yesterday? He asked Joel very pointedly about the statements made by FBR in their downgrade, and Joel answered each point and basically said that the analyst at FBR had it wrong. Now, I don't put a lot of faith in Cramer, but in this case, I think he performed a valuable service by doing in public what a lot of individual shareholders might want to do - ask the CEO about the doubts raised by the analyst and give him an opportunity to respond. There is a link to the video at the Yahoo headlines page.
regards ... stenz

[stenzrob]

I was just looking over some stocks that I had traded and then set aside to check later, as it is now later. I traded SPIL on a breakout late last year, buying at $6.47 on 10/31 and selling at $7.28 on 11/22 for a 12.5% gain. The sell was triggered by a stop I entered before going on vacation. It looks like it's breaking out again on the strong tech sector performance today. It's got good fundamentals and valuation, the problem I'm having is that it's in the same business as IMOS, which I already own. I'm thinking that either one is as good as the other, although SPIL is a lot bigger. AMKR is also in the same business, but that one tends to be more volatile, and they've got massive amounts of debt according to the usual online sources of such data, so that would make me nervous. One more bigger competitior is ASX, which the Carlyle group has offered to buy. Using the "Competitors" view at Yahoo, ASX was the only one that shows a PEG as low as IMOS. So, it just brings me back to my agreement with the Forbes article "Buy ChipMOS on the cheap" with which I agree.

Net result of all this blabbering - I'm sticking with IMOS. Just thought I'd share why I'm sticking with this one as opposed to some others in the same business. It comes down to fundamentals. It also doesn't hurt that IMOS is the only one of these with an "Acc/Dis" rating of "A", which is just a confirmation of what I said about IMOS earlier, that it is approaching a new high on consistently above average volume since 12/15 when they raised Q4 guidance for revenue and gross margin.

[stenzrob]

I just bought some TSRA at $38.48.
Analysts are mixed about it, but I read that Jim Oberweis likes it and believes they could surprise to the upside when they report at the end of the month. Earnings are lumpy, but trending up. ROE and margins are healthy. Any new license agreements pump large amounts of cash to the bottom line. This is one of my riskier positions.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIM yesterday for $14.70.
First bought this back in May'06 under $7 and sold out in December at over $16. Looks to me like the correction is over, and other steel companies, including STLD and riverbabe's ATI have done well recently.

[stenzrob]

Bought some SIM yesterday for $14.70.
First bought this back in May'06 under $7 and sold out in December at over $16. Looks to me like the correction is over, and other steel companies, including STLD and riverbabe's ATI have done well recently.Forbes article about the steel industry today.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/01/30/steel-stocks-earnings-markets-equity-cx_jl_0130markets15.html
"Steel stocks are starting to reflect a more optimistic outlook for 2007 and investors could reap the benefits."

Also, Tata just outbid a Brazilian company to acquire a big UK steelmaker.

[stenzrob]

EXP had a very nice day, but then they reported.

Beat the estimates by a small amount, but guided Q4 below estimates.
I just dumped it after hours at $47.86. This way, I don't have to worry about it anymore.

Since I bought at $42.45 on 11/15, and was given a dividend on 1/26, I can live with this. $47.86 is also slightly above where it opened this morning.

[stenzrob]

I just bought some TSRA at $38.48.
Analysts are mixed about it, but I read that Jim Oberweis likes it and believes they could surprise to the upside when they report at the end of the month. Earnings are lumpy, but trending up. ROE and margins are healthy. Any new license agreements pump large amounts of cash to the bottom line. This is one of my riskier positions.
TSRA also reported today after the close, after announcing an acquisition this morning. After hours indicates a strong open tomorrow, I'll hold this one and see how it goes.

[stenzrob]

TSRA also reported today after the close, after announcing an acquisition this morning. After hours indicates a strong open tomorrow, I'll hold this one and see how it goes.
This one seems to be working out OK so far. :)