MY PICK IS ELN

[kingofthehill]

ELN


For the nine months ended 9/30/03, revenues fell 45% to $673.3M. Net loss from continuing operations decreased 87% to $211.4 million. Revenues reflect the genericization of Zanaflex. Lower loss reflects a decrease in investment losses.

[kingofthehill]

ELN is on fire !!!

19-Dec-03 6.37 6.70 6.32 6.62 5,979,300 6.62
18-Dec-03 6.44 6.53 6.33 6.44 2,810,300 6.44
17-Dec-03 6.15 6.50 6.03 6.44 6,439,600 6.44
16-Dec-03 5.97 6.15 5.80 6.15 4,972,000 6.15
15-Dec-03 6.18 6.19 5.93 6.00 5,114,500 6.00
12-Dec-03 5.80 6.19 5.78 6.15 8,357,900 6.15
11-Dec-03 5.57 5.89 5.55 5.79 6,183,100 5.79
10-Dec-03 5.74 5.81 5.56 5.57 2,746,600 5.57
9-Dec-03 5.62 5.86 5.62 5.71 6,737,100 5.71
8-Dec-03 5.60 5.65 5.47 5.59 1,756,500 5.59
5-Dec-03 5.56 5.61 5.46 5.51 2,172,500 5.51
4-Dec-03 5.83 5.83 5.54 5.60 6,051,400 5.60
3-Dec-03 5.70 5.88 5.65 5.76 5,618,100 5.76
2-Dec-03 5.49 5.77 5.46 5.75 8,721,300 5.75
1-Dec-03 5.50 5.55 5.48 5.49 3,605,900 5.49
28-Nov-03 5.47 5.50 5.36 5.46 1,396,100 5.46
26-Nov-03 5.26 5.45 5.23 5.42 6,217,700 5.42
25-Nov-03 5.11 5.27 5.06 5.25 4,813,600 5.25
24-Nov-03 5.10 5.15 5.05 5.11 3,620,600 5.11
21-Nov-03 5.19 5.20 5.07 5.10 2,295,700 5.10
20-Nov-03 5.16 5.20 5.11 5.15 4,527,400 5.15
19-Nov-03 5.28 5.34 5.15 5.23 2,037,000 5.23
18-Nov-03 5.30 5.38 5.18 5.21 1,767,400 5.21
17-Nov-03 5.45 5.52 5.25 5.33 2,620,300 5.33
14-Nov-03 5.64 5.64 5.42 5.50 7,530,600 5.50
13-Nov-03 5.28 5.48 5.25 5.36 6,952,200 5.36
12-Nov-03 5.12 5.35 5.11 5.33 5,952,700 5.33
11-Nov-03 5.20 5.24 5.10 5.12 3,498,600 5.12
10-Nov-03 5.32 5.35 5.16 5.24 4,020,700 5.24
7-Nov-03 5.15 5.31 5.12 5.30 8,508,200 5.30
6-Nov-03 4.94 5.16 4.90 5.08 9,135,300 5.08
5-Nov-03 5.03 5.14 4.85 4.90 7,245,500 4.90
4-Nov-03 5.22 5.22 5.05 5.06 3,861,600 5.06
3-Nov-03 5.23 5.27 5.15 5.20 6,002,400 5.20
31-Oct-03 4.95 5.29 4.72 5.13 31,399,000 5.13
30-Oct-03 5.48 5.71 4.90 4.95 22,353,700 4.95
29-Oct-03 5.41 5.71 5.38 5.57 2,136,900 5.57
28-Oct-03 5.23 5.47 5.18 5.41 2,615,300 5.41
27-Oct-03 5.07 5.20 5.05 5.15 1,123,600 5.15
24-Oct-03 5.16 5.17 5.01 5.03 1,684,800 5.03
23-Oct-03 5.21 5.29 5.07 5.20 2,826,000 5.20
22-Oct-03 5.53 5.60 5.25 5.25 1,875,200 5.25
21-Oct-03 5.41 5.58 5.31 5.52 2,585,500 5.52
20-Oct-03 5.35 5.39 5.21 5.31 1,848,700 5.31
17-Oct-03 5.72 5.72 5.36 5.37 2,193,100 5.37
16-Oct-03 5.76 5.82 5.61 5.72 1,450,200 5.72
15-Oct-03 5.79 5.90 5.77 5.80 1,996,800 5.80
14-Oct-03 5.77 5.88 5.68 5.83 1,832,400 5.83
13-Oct-03 5.66 5.77 5.65 5.77 1,770,700 5.77
10-Oct-03 5.47 5.68 5.46 5.65 1,773,100 5.65
9-Oct-03 5.71 5.82 5.40 5.55 2,646,400 5.55
8-Oct-03 5.79 5.85 5.62 5.72 1,447,400 5.72
7-Oct-03 5.93 5.97 5.76 5.82 2,878,400 5.82
6-Oct-03 5.73 5.90 5.72 5.89 2,266,300 5.89
3-Oct-03 5.57 5.70 5.50 5.66 2,954,500 5.66
2-Oct-03 5.37 5.52 5.35 5.47 2,023,900 5.47
1-Oct-03 5.30 5.40 5.21 5.34 1,687,300 5.34
30-Sep-03 5.40 5.43 5.16 5.29 1,653,300 5.29
29-Sep-03 5.07 5.24 5.07 5.18 1,169,800 5.18
26-Sep-03 5.21 5.25 5.09 5.11 1,471,000 5.11
25-Sep-03 5.33 5.38 5.15 5.27 1,934,000 5.27
24-Sep-03 5.59 5.60 5.21 5.30 3,903,500 5.30
23-Sep-03 5.55 5.65 5.52 5.59 1,499,100 5.59
22-Sep-03 5.52 5.63 5.37 5.55 2,472,100 5.55
19-Sep-03 5.75 5.75 5.51 5.64 4,247,900 5.64
18-Sep-03 6.15 6.15 5.80 5.81 3,609,200 5.81
* Close price adjusted for dividends and splits.

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[kingofthehill]

Elan is being cleaned up to be sold.
guess is Wyeth. They know that the Alzheimers research is going to be worth billions and billions, because one of these days, Elan will come up with the cure, if they haven't already done so. Antegren is going to be worth billions for MS and I believe it will be cleared for Crohns because of the 12 week findings. Prialt is going to be a wonder drug for pain and the NDA for it will be filed very soon if it hasn't already. Then there is their nano technology that is going to be worth billions and billions more in the coming years. This is going to become the preferred drug delivery system for the entire world as the science progresses. And this dumb ass is asking what is there to sell.

[kingofthehill]

MORE FROM LEHMAN BROS. ON ELAN

[All the caps are Lehman's]

STOCK COMMENT – RECENT STRENGTH PARTLY FUELED BY SPECULATION OF EARLIER-THAN-EXPECTED ANTEGRAN NDA FILING FOR MS: While yesterday’s news is a positive for Elan, execution on bringing to market its key pipeline product Antegren remains critical to the company’s future growth. Our 1-OW investment rating primarily reflects reduced downside risk from a successful recovery plan. We continue to expect pipeline visibility to improve in 2004. Nevertheless, we also continue to see real product development risk and maintain our cautiously optimistic view, with the emphasis on “caution”. We believe that strength in Elan shares since our investment rating upgrade on November 14 reflects not just greater appreciation for the Elan story in general and the reduced risk profile that we have highlighted, but also some speculation on a potential earlier-than expected NDA filing for the multiple sclerosis(MS) indication for Antegran – which we, as well as Elan management and partner Biogen, do not expect until late 2004/early 2005, with
a 1H04 filing being very much a wildcard and highly unlikely. While more widespread speculation on the earlier-than-expected NDA filing for MS scenario may further fuel share price appreciation, we would not chase the stock on this expectation. As we stated, the next expected opportunity for pipeline assessment will likely be in 1Q04 with the release of ENACT II clinical results in Crohn’s – positive outcome may increase our confidence in Antegren’s regulatory and commercial outlook

[kingofthehill]

I AM SO GOOD TO YOU GUYS WHO ELSE GIVES YOU A WINNER LIKE

ELN ...high today $7.23 to close at 7.10

this stock is MASSIVE ..I AM MASSIVE ..... ELN ELN

THYE ALSO OWN 10% OF NGEN

[MEA_1956]

I AM SO GOOD TO YOU GUYS WHO ELSE GIVES YOU A WINNER LIKE

ELN ...high today $7.23 to close at 7.10

this stock is MASSIVE ..I AM MASSIVE ..... ELN ELN

THYE ALSO OWN 10% OF NGEN
Yes, I Was Just Wondering, Do you have a home page so all of us would be able to see if there was just a special sause you use or is there skill in your picks. Now me, I use the hit and miss method, missed E L N but road Sears to the top. I am in on N G E N, and today was just wounderful, do you have a third pick that you would like to share. If you like a slow ride you might consider B T N E . ob I spotted this one on pure luck and got in at $2.12 @ the first of Dec. It seems like some one picks up a nickel of this one every day, just to keep it climbing. ===>MEA

[kingofthehill]

do your own DD but i gotta say once the SEC clears ELN , and 2 new drugs they have this will move to the teens..also ELN OWNS about 10% of NGEN !! its not too late, i bought another 500 shares Friday at $7.10 ..i sold my NGEN last week ..i missed the last move in NGEN i have been very focused on this stock i may buy back into CDE and CAMD on dips ... but this ELN is a winner ...

if you want to know about this company try the http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mb?s=ELN

their are a few loose botls on the board thier but you can learn alot about where the company is headed

good luck to all in 2004

[kingofthehill]

AM I GOOD OR WHAT !!!!!!!!


ELN CLOSES AT $8.02 ON 24 MILLION SHARES !!!!!


DUE YOUR OWN DD

ELAN

[kingofthehill]

January 8, 2004

LENGTH: 434 words

HEADLINE: ELAN PASSES MILESTONE FOR NEW PAINKILLER

BYLINE: Liz Vaughan-Adams

BODY:


THE IRISH drug company Elan announced yesterday that its treatment for severe chronic pain had passed a key trial and would be on the market no later than the first quarter of next year.

The company, led by Kelly Martin, came close to insovlency last year and has been selling assets to bring its debts under control, It said its Prialt drug for patients with sever chronic pain had successfully completed Phase III trials.

The trial centred on patients who had not achieved pain relief with other therapies like, for example, intrathecally delivered (into the fluid in the spinal cord) morphine. At week three, the study - a double-blind, placebo-controlled study, showed that patients taking Prialt saw "statistically significant improvement".

Prialt is used in the treatment of severe chronic pain by patients suffering from illnesses such as cancer and Aids where other painkillers no longer work. It is administered intrathecally with an internal or external pump.

Elan said its analysis showed the treatment to be "safe, efficacious and well tolerated". It plans to file an amendment to its New Drug Application with the US Food and Drug Administration in the second quarter of this year.

It expects to bring the treatment - a drug it estimates could make revenues of $ 1.3bn to $ 1.5bn over its life - to market no later than the first quarter of next year.

Analysts at NCB Stockbrokers are forecasting $ 20m of sales of Prialt in 2005 and $ 50m the year after that and predict the drug's peak annual sales potential is around $ 150m.

Lars Ekman, Elan's president of research and development, said: "We are very encouraged by these definitive findings with Prialt and believe that this is significant news for patients suffering with severe chronic pain, many of whom are not now adequately treated." The FDA had previously issued an approvable letter for Prialt, asking for more information. This latest study, the company said, fulfilled that requirement.

The trial studied 220 patients with severe chronic pain to show the efficacy and safety of lower doses of Prialt. Elan said there were few serious side effects.

Elan cited data which shows there are around 2 million patients in the United States with chronic pain who fail to respond to existing treatments. Of those, around 300,00 might be considered suitable for intrathecal treatment like Prialt.

It is a fillip for the company that has been battling to get its debt under control. Last month, Elan sold its European sales and marketing business to the private equity group Apax Partners for $ 120m.

[kingofthehill]

just wanted to let the wallflowers here at mr. markets ....

13 million shares traded price range 7.80 -8.40

most of the day traded at 8.23 closed at 8.15

even the motley fool now likes the stock ... anyone else riding this train besides Me ???

OUR TAKE

Elan's Happy Pill?

The Motley Fool Take
Elan Corp.


By Jeff Hwang
January 8, 2004
Elan (NYSE: ELN) investors are feeling happy these days, as the company continues its rebound from potential disaster. Yesterday, the Irish drug developer accentuated those good vibes by reporting success in a Phase III trial for Prialt, a severe chronic pain treatment. On that news, Elan shares climbed 13% to $8.02 yesterday, and are up another 3% today.

The company said it expects to file an amendment to its New Drug Application (NDA) with the Federal Drug Administration in the second quarter of 2004. Elan also expects Prialt to be on the market by the first quarter of 2005.

This positive injection of good news comes at a good time; damage from the company's mass asset sales distracted from what was an otherwise positive earnings report. Those sales continued into last month, when Elan announced the $120 million sale of its European sales and marketing business.

But things look to be heading the other way. Revenues from continuing operations were up 31% last quarter, and Prialt should help build on that. Plus, Elan has a potential blockbuster waiting in its wings in Antegren, a Multiple Sclerosis treatment. Further, Fool Tom Jacobs expressed earlier that nabbing G. Kelly Martin from Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) was the right choice to help turnaround the company.

Even given the massive rebound in Elan's shares price, the stock may very well still be undervalued. However, as Fool Bill Mann would point out, investors should still be mindful that Elan still "has yet to receive a clean bill of health from the SEC."

Is Elan still undervalued? Is it worth the plunge? Debate it on the Elan discussion board – only at Fool.com.


Jeff Hwang can be reached at JHwang@fool.com.

[kingofthehill]

Things are looking good for ELN

Elan's Former Neurex Product, Prialt, Hits Phase III Endpoint

By Cormac Sheridan



BioWorld International Correspondent
Elan Corp. plc aims to launch its non-opioid peptide-based analgesic Prialt "no later" than the first quarter of 2005, following news that the compound met its primary endpoint in a trial of 220 patients with severe chronic pain who had not obtained relief with other therapies.

The Dublin, Ireland-based pharmaceutical company hasn't released the results of the study, but plans to do so at an appropriate scientific meeting later this year. It said Wednesday that Prialt (ziconotide) achieved a statistically significant improvement at week three in the Visual Analogue Scale of Pain Intensity (VASPI) score.

Elan gained ownership of Prialt, a synthetic derivative of a peptide isolated from the venom of a Conus species of marine snail, when it acquired Neurex Inc. in 1998 in a stock swap valued at $741 million. The product, the first in its class, acts by blocking a neuron-specific N-type calcium channel. It is administered intrathecally, that is, into the cerebrospinal fluid surrounding the spinal cord, via a subcutaneously implanted pump supplied by Medtronic Inc., of Minneapolis.

The compound has a development history stretching back to the mid-1990s and was the subject of an FDA approvable letter in 2001 that asked for additional data. Since then, Elan has worked with the agency on the design of a study to evaluate its efficacy at a lower dosage and a slower titration rate than those used in two previous pivotal studies.

"The data from this study, then, represent the final element of this process and will be filed as an amendment to our new drug application with the FDA in the second quarter of this year," Lars Ekman, executive vice president and president of research and development at Elan, said in a conference call.

On the same call, CEO Kelly Martin said the product would be targeted at around 50 pain treatment centers in the U.S., saying, "We're quite familiar with them, and they're quite familiar with us." Some 39 of them were involved in the recent clinical study. The product will be aimed initially at three groups: cancer patients, AIDS patients with chronic pain and patients with neuropathic pain.

Martin said peak annual sales for Prialt could lie between $150 million and $250 million, based on a total potential market of 300,000 patients with chronic pain who are considered suitable candidates for intrathecal treatment.

"Three-thousand dollars to $4,000 per patient per month in this market space looks like the revenue opportunity," he said.

Only 30,000 to 50,000 patients have so far been fitted with the Medtronic device, although availability of Prialt could push that figure higher, Martin said.

"It's very hard to gauge how they're going to penetrate the market," said David Marshall, analyst at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. The company's most immediate target, he said, is likely to be that fraction of patients using intrathecal pumps who have become refractory to morphine or who suffer from respiratory side effects through its use.

"They may be able to capture that portion of the market quite quickly and have a slow ramp from there," he said.



Published January 14, 2004

[Michaelk005]

You have mentioned CDE may times in your posts. I am a big trader of the Gold mine, wondering your thoughts on the current dip. I went in at low $4s and am holding but I day trade this stock lots.
Inpute would be sweet, thanks

[casinoboy3]

ELN looking very nice. Nice pick. You think it's a good buying opportunity right now, or perhaps wait a little?

[kingofthehill]

there is still alot of upside ...anyone buying i before the SEC issue is resolved will be rewarded nicely Brokerage house will not cover a stock thats under sec. review ..this was a $60 stock i can see it being 15 by years end



it made a nice move today again $8.89 days high

http://www.wistv.com/global/story.asp?s=1608267&ClientType=Printable

Experimental pain killer for cancer patients derived from sea snail venom

(National) Jan. 20, 2004 - The venom of a sea snail could ease hard to treat pain in cancer and aids patients, according to new research published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Less than an inch long, small sea snails contain venom that paralyze their prey. A man made version of the potent venom has been shown to relieve severe pain, especially in cancer patients.

Georgia Robins Sadler, a cancer specialist at the University of California-San Diego, says, "For some patients it's absolutely unable to be relieved by pain medication, they think. That's an important difference. Most pain can be relieved."

Named Ziconotide, the drug works by coating the spinal column, similar to epidurals used in childbirth. Dr. Sadler says it allows patients to move without pain, "It's just like childbirth pain. You think about having your spinal cord area numb, so you don't have feeling from the waist down when delivering a child. This medication is delivered into the spinal cord area and helps numb some of the pain that's felt through the central nervous system."

A small battery operated pump implanted in the patient's back provides constant medication. Some side effects, like dizziness, were found in about 20 percent of patients. Risks that may be outweighed by the benefit of having another line of defense in fighting pain.

Elan, the makers of the Ziconotide, is now seeking FDA approval. With it they expect the drug to be available within the year.

posted 11:03am by Chris Rees

[kingofthehill]

24/01/04
Elan sell-off continues as positive drug trial results boost share prices

By Conor Keane - Business Correspondent
ROLL up, roll up, the great Elan sell-off continues and the more the company sells off the higher its share price goes.


Long-term Elan shareholders, now used to magical mystery tours along the high and lows of the share price bar chart, have ended yet another week in a twirl as the shares first rose and then slid again.





However, the underlying trend is positive. A year ago, on Friday, January 24, Elan shares closed at €3.44, a long way from the heady days of 2001 when the shares hit €65 but came crashing down as a result of a post-Enron accountancy problem. Yesterday, shares closed at €6.95, down 3.47% on the day, but well up on the year low of €2.05.

The first respite shareholders in Elan got this year was .on January 8, when shares in Elan surged 11% on good news for painkiller Prialt.

Elan revealed its recent Phase III trial for Prialt had met its primary end-point in patients with severe chronic pain who had not achieved pain relief with other therapies. The firm said it expects to bring the treatment to market no later than the first quarter of 2005.

Not exactly the blockbuster drug the company needs, as potential sales are not in the major league, but crucially, it was positive news that at last Elan was back in the game.

This week, Elan announced sell-off deals, worth around 90 million in cash, in order to further reduce their colossal debts.

Elan chief executive Kelly Martin said: "These transactions are consistent with our strategy of focusing our resources on our core therapeutic focus areas, developing our pipeline, and bringing innovative science to patients. They represent further success in our commitment to reposition Elan for the future."

Elan was rated a buy by Goodbody stockbrokers yesterday morning.

[kingofthehill]

another good day for ELN 12 million shares traded closed at $8.99

[cbenj]

Kingofthehill,

I bought ELN on Jan. 5 after your writeup. Was up 22% before today...and almost sold yesterday ahead of earnings, but decided to keep thru earnings.

Rewarded big today as ELN up almost 29% as I write this.

Just wanted to say thanks for the pick.

Ben :)

[mrmarket]

Kingofthehill is HUGE!

[stenzrob]

Kingofthehill is HUGE!
ELN volume was also HUGE.

[kingofthehill]

Thanks guys glad you made money this is just the first inning in the big leagues again for ELN... i sold alot of my calls for FEB and April but held the rest .. when SEC crap is over this should fly if you have the time ... listen to the replay of the CC call today ... congrats .. THANKS FOR CALM

great week with ELN and AWE

[kingofthehill]

www.bioworld.com

Biogen, Elan Planning Antegren Filing In MS With One-Year Data

By Kim Coghill



Washington Editor
Biogen Idec Inc. and partner Elan Corp. plc gained value Wednesday after telling Wall Street they intend to file the Antegren application for multiple sclerosis based on one-year data, as opposed to waiting for the traditional two-year data set to be completed.

Biogen Idec's stock (NASDAQ:BIIB) jumped $8.97 Wednesday, or 20.3 percent, to close at $53.23. Elan's stock (NYSE:ELN) rose $3, or 34.1 percent, close at $11.80.

The partners expect to submit the biologics license application for Antegren (natalizumab) as a treatment for multiple sclerosis in mid-2004. The companies said once it is filed and accepted they would have better insight into the pending action schedule, particularly regarding whether the BLA would be classified as a priority review.

The BLA will be based on two Phase III studies known as Affirm and Sentinel. Although both trials are two-year, randomized, multicenter, placebo-controlled, double-blind studies scheduled to be finished in the first quarter of 2005, the companies will plan the filing on the one-year data, Amy Brockelman, spokeswoman for Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen Idec, told BioWorld Today. The pre-specified primary endpoint at one year is relapse rates.

However, both trials will be taken to their two-year completion, Lars Ekman, executive vice president and president of research development at Dublin, Ireland-based Elan, said on a conference call Wednesday.

The the firms made the decision to file on a single year of data following recent discussions with the FDA.

"But to protect the integrity of the trials, we are not disclosing one-year data at this point," Ekman said. "As we have said before, there are no other MS therapies on the market that have been approved with less than two years worth of data. However, based on our discussions with the FDA, we believe the one year is sufficient to support the filing."

Indeed, Mike King, managing director at Banc of America Securities LLC in New York, told BioWorld Today that the data must be compelling if the companies are willing to file early.

"Biogen knows what it is doing in this department, so the data must be positive," he said. "But I think the question is, will the FDA break its precedent of how it approves drugs for MS, which is on two-year disability scores."

King added that Antegren has generated some excitement because of its novel mechanism of action. Discovered by Elan, Antegren, a humanized monoclonal antibody, is the first alpha-4 antagonist in the new selective adhesion molecule inhibitor class. The drug was designed to selectively inhibit immune cells from leaving the bloodstream and to prevent those cells from migrating into chronically inflamed tissue, which occurs in a variety of inflammatory diseases. To date, about 2,800 patients have received the product in clinical studies.

Aside from MS, the partners believe Antegren might be useful in Crohn's disease, rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or possibly other indications, Ekman said.

In fact, within the past month, the partners have released favorable information about the candidate in the other potential areas. After missing the primary endpoint in a Phase III trial of Antegren in Crohn's patients in July, the partners rebounded, conducted another Phase III and hit their target. The companies said in late January their 428-patient Crohn's Phase III trial, referred to as Enact-2 (Evaluation of Natalizumab as Continuous Therapy-2), hit its primary endpoint by maintaining a response in Crohn's patients. (See BioWorld Today, July 25, 2003, and Jan. 30, 2004.)

Days later, the companies said they filed an investigational new drug application to study Antegren in rheumatoid arthritis. A Phase II trial is on track to begin in the first half of 2004.

Meanwhile, the Phase III trials in MS march on. The 900-patient Affirm (Natalizumab Safety and Efficacy in Relapsing-Remitting MS) study will evaluate the ability of natalizumab to slow the progression of disability in MS and reduce the rate of clinical relapses. The Sentinel (Safety and Efficacy of Natalizumab in Combination with Avonex [Interferon beta-1a]) study will evaluate the effect of the combination of natalizumab and Avonex compared to treatment with Avonex alone in slowing the progression of disability and reducing the rate of clinical relapses. The primary endpoints for both Phase III two-year trials in MS are based on the Expanded Disability Status Scale and relapse rates.

Biogen Idec's Avonex was approved for MS in 1996.

The deal to develop Antegren in MS, Crohn's and RA is part of an agreement signed by Elan and Biogen (prior to Biogen's merger with Idec Pharmaceuticals Inc., of San Diego) in 2000. Financial terms were not disclosed, Brockelman said.

[kingofthehill]

NICE CLOSE TODAY $13.50

[kingofthehill]

it not too late $17.00 close today ELN

buy it ...and dont look back

[kingofthehill]

ok guys last chance !! the stock is $17.11

just read this one page over the weekend

thats all i can say

http://www.tixx.com/lehman.htm

[stocks54]

Hello kingofthehill,

Congratulations for your pick. Do you think it's still a good buy?

Regards,

[kingofthehill]

yes i truely believe that this is the next DNA or close to it ..

should be $40 plus by year end based on fast track approval of Antegren

read this page from the Lehman Brothers presentation March 3

http://www.tixx.com/lehman.htm

for price targets look here this guy has been pretty close
http://messages.yahoo.com/bbs?action=m&board=7076797&tid=eln&mid=319658&sid= 7076797

[stocks54]

Thanks,

[kingofthehill]

We are on our way to $40.00 ..plenty of room on the train..

[kingofthehill]

from Europe ... all prices are quoted in EURO

19/03/04
Elan’s shares double with a rise of 8%

By Kotaro Miyata
SHARES of Elan climbed as much as 8% as the Irish drugmaker’s executives met money managers in Europe to talk about the company’s prospects.


Elan’s Irish shares rose 90 cents to close at 15.30 in Dublin, giving the sharers their fifth straight gain, the longest streak since September. The stock reached its highest since April 3, 2002 and gained the third most in the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

Chief executive officer Kelly Martin and Lars Ekman, the company’s research chief, are meeting investors in Europe to “educate people who are interested in the company,’ said Anita Kawatra, a New York-based spokeswoman for Elan.





Kawatra said the executives weren’t providing any new information and declined to give further details.

Elan said last month that it will apply by July for US approval of Antegren, its multiple sclerosis drug, speeding potential clearance of the product by as much as a year. The shares have more than doubled since February 17, the day before the company made the announcement.

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc analysts said last month that Antegren may generate $450m in sales and is Elan’s most promising new product.

Martin joined Elan as chief executive at the beginning of 2003 and is focusing on research to regain investor confidence after a US accounting probe.

Previously he was president of the International Private Client Group.

[freewayc]

I did my own DD after reading these posts and bought ELN at just over $13 8) . Thanks for the excellent pick King!!

[kingofthehill]

this is and will continue to be the best stock on the NYSE, many major event will push this higher now till mid summer..enjoy the ride..

Elan ..ELN will make a run like DNA ...just dont get stopped out ...

[kingofthehill]

23-Mar-04 07:44 ET In Play Elan Corp resumed with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley (ELN) 18.40: -- Update -- Morgan Stanley resumes coverage on ELN with an Overweight rating and $30 target; firm's investment thesis is that:
1) the co's R&D platform is more valuable than expectations (mainly Antegren),
2) successful restructuring of the balance sheet will result in less financial risk,
3) legal risks will diminish without material harm to the co, and
4) mgmt has the skills to build an integrated pharma/biotech co.


23-Mar-04 07:27 ET In Play Biogen Idec and Elan to submit MS treatment for European approval (BIIB) 52.32: Biogen Idec and Elan (ELN 18.40) announce that they intend to submit to the European Agency for the Evaluation of Medicinal Products an application for approval of Antegren as a treatment for multiple sclerosis. The companies expect to submit the filing in the summer of 2004.

[kingofthehill]

3/23 Morgan Stanley target $30.00
3/29Deutsche Bank target raised to $26.00

3/30Davy's Brokerage Dublin price target increased to $23.50

Elan (Buy, Current Price $19.95)

"Don't forget the Alzheimer's programme"

Frova rights sold. In a 27-page report released today, we discuss the Alzheimer's market in terms of the increase in number of sufferers expected over the next 20 years and the degree of market penetration expected should an effective cure be discovered. Alzheimer's is a progressively debilitating disease affecting a growing number of people. There are currently over 13m sufferers worldwide, 2m in the US alone. As increasing age is one of the most important risk factors, the number of sufferers is forecast to grow exponentially from 2011 onwards as the baby-boomer generation hit 65. It could reach 37m by 2025. The current market of $1.8bn is split between four drugs that do not cure the disease but simply alleviate symptoms and delay disease progress. An increasing target population and improved market penetration (currently at 30% in the US and 14% in Europe) will, we believe, drive the market to top $6bn by 2010 with the potential for exponential growth to $21bn by 2020. Within this environment, Elan's candidate drug, currently in Phase I clinical trials, (one of 79 pipeline drugs reviewed) has the potential to enter a buoyant market in 2009/2010, which could support a number of $1bn plus drugs. Should the compound show the same degree of efficacy AN-1792 demonstrated before withdrawal, it has the potential to conservatively capture a 10% market share, which by 2012 could equate to $1.7bn. In relative terms, Elan is only trading at a 6% premium to its peers on 2005 EV/EBITDA. Given the potential upside from Antegren, the market generally supports a 20-25% premium on such a biotech stock, implying a price of $22.60 to $23.50. We, therefore, retain our Buy recommendation raising our price target to $23.50 (from $17.00). // In separate news, Elan this morning announced the termination of its development of licence agreements with Vernalis regarding Frova. Vernalis has agreed to purchase Elan's North American rights for the migraine drug for a total of $55m. Elan will receive $5m up front, followed by $20m and $25m at the end of 2004 and 2005 respectively. In addition, Vernalis will pay Elan $5m by the end of 2004 for the existing inventory. Elan's co-promotion agreement with UBC Pharma will be terminated with Elan paying UBC c.$10m as a result. This agreement will see Elan refocus its pain salesforce for the expected approval and launch of both Prialt and Antegren.

[mjmilam]

Hey, King,

Your ELN pick was brilliant.

Got any more like that one? ;-))

MJ

[kingofthehill]

it still love this stock and continue to buy ELAN

$35-40.00 by year end

Take alook at the huge buys today on ELN

[kingofthehill]

ÉLAN CLOSED AT $21.00 YESTERDAY !!! STILL ROOM TO MAKE A FEW HUNDRED THOUSAND

Under the "Current Account" rubric (light commentary on market events) in today's Irish Times:

"Elan's prescription for recovery pays off

If any of Elan's promising pipeline of drugs have even half the powers of recovery demonstrated by its shares of late, the company's future seems assured.
The drug group is once again back among the largest companies on the Irish Stock Exchange after a phenomenal first quarter performance from the shares, which has seen them appreciate by 199 per cent.
As of yesterday, Elan boasted a market capitalisation of 6.5 billion euro, leaving it in fourth place behind AIB, Bank of Ireland and CRH and accounting for nearly 10 per cent of the ISEQ.
It is a little more than two years since the shares collapsed from more than $65 to less than $2, shocking investors and wiping millions off the value of pension funds and other share-based investments.
But with its asset-disposal and restructuring programme complete, and its focus narrowed to three key areas, the company seems to be back on track.
Indeed, so long ago do the events of February 2002 now seem that the company felt confident enough to reward its board, including the same set of non-executive directors that presided over the share price crash two years ago, with a grant of share options this week. Seems all has been forgiven

[kingofthehill]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&guid=%7B338F84CE%2DCE2F %2D4575%2D8E80%2DF5C57B0F2455%7D

[Michaelk005]

Excellent pic king.. I will pick up some shares soon..

[kingofthehill]

ING DIRECT UPGRADES ELAN

Elan
“Elan – not for the feint of heart

While risks from debt obligations and an SEC review remain, our analysis suggests launch of Elan's Antegren could transform the MS market. We therefore upgrade our recommendation to BUY from Sell.”

“Our base valuation, which supports the current share price, assumes Antegren sales reach US$2.5bn with operating margins of 72%. This suggests a fair value of US$20.3.
• However, our market analysis suggests upside in our forecasts. In MS alone sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons. We have assumed that there is a 50% chance that Antegren will achieve this upside scenario. This supports a share price of US$24.85.”

“Scenario 1
• Sales of Antegren reach US$2.28bn in multiple sclerosis. Antegren is launched in mid-2005 (we do not assume Antegren receives expedite review).
• Sales of Antegren reach US$250m in Crohn's and is launched in 2006. This assumes a 30%penetration of the TNF non-responder group of patients.
• Our DCF valuation using these assumptions suggests a fair value of US$20.3.
Scenario 2
• Sales of Antegren in MS reach US$3.5bn. This assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons and a launch in early 2005 following expedite review.
• Sales of Antegren in Crohn's reach US$500m after launch in late 2005. This assumes a 50% penetration of the TNF non-responder group of patients in addition to use as maintenance therapy in a small proportion of TNF responders.
• Our DCF valuation using these assumptions suggests a fair value of US$29.4.”

“Risk-adjusted DCF
We have assumed that there is a 50% chance that Antegren will achieve our upside scenario 2. We have therefore conducted a DCF analysis adding risk-adjusted incremental Antegren revenues to our base case scenario 1. This valuation suggests a fair value of US$24.85.”

[kingofthehill]

The Irish patient is on the mend
Elan’s chairman saved the company only by raising cash from drug disposals, writes Ciaran Hancock



IT is one of the great corporate recovery stories. Elan, the pharmaceuticals group that was once Ireland’s most valuable company, was on the brink of collapse two years ago — brought low by an accounting scandal that earned it the label of “Europe’s Enron”.
Elan had used a multitude of joint-venture schemes to inflate its profits and hide the full costs of its research and development. As the facts emerged, the company’s shares collapsed along with its credibility. With America’s Securities and Exchange Commission pursuing an investigation, it looked almost impossible for Elan to meet the repayments on its enormous debts.



Garo Armen, an American, was the Elan director chosen to replace Donal Geaney, the Irish accountant who, as chairman, was responsible for the group’s rapid growth in the late 1990s.

“For about three months from the beginning of July 2002 through to the end of September, every day, every hour was critical,” Armen told The Sunday Times. “Any one of many things could have made the company collapse. We were on the hook every single day until we had an agreement to sell our first major asset.”

But Elan has survived. With its debts under control, it seems to have a future once more, much of it based on the promise of Antegren, a treatment for multiple sclerosis and Crohn’s disease. Elan’s shares, quoted in New York and London, traded below $3 last year, but have rebounded to about $20.

Armen might even have a chance of keeping the rash promise he made at a stormy shareholder meeting in August 2002 — that the shares would return to their previous high of above $60 within three years. All he needed was time, he pleaded.

“I stand by my comments at that meeting,” said Armen. “It’s a personal conviction but I think the company’s pipeline (of new drugs) is so strong that shareholders will be appropriately rewarded if we continue to perform.”

When several of Elan’s directors approached Armen to ask him to take over from Geaney, he already had a demanding day job as chairman and chief executive of Antigenics, a cancer vaccine development company he co-founded in 1994.

For the next year Armen worked every day, clocking up between 80 and 90 hours a week, dividing his time between the two companies as he fought to save Elan.

When Armen took charge, bondholders and other creditors were screaming for their money. Debts peaked at $4.5 billion, about half of which was close to maturity. In comparison. Elan’s market value had sunk to little more than $400m. Armen puts it succinctly: “It was a mess.”

The first break came in October 2002, when Armen sold the North American rights for Abelcet, an anti-fungal treatment, in a deal that set the tone for an extensive disposal programme. “Initial estimates by Wall Street were that we would sell that asset for between $250m and $300m; we ended up selling it for $365m,” said Armen. “That was a strong statement that our assets were more valuable than people thought.”

Many key staff considered quitting because of Elan’s perilous financial position. “All the vultures, headhunters and competitors were starting to circle because we had terrifically talented scientists. Had we lost them, the whole thing would have collapsed,” Armen said.

Since those dark days of mid-2002, Armen has reduced the number of joint ventures to about a dozen and sold roughly $2 billion worth of assets. In the past fortnight alone, it has disposed of its Zonegran and Frova drugs in deals that could net it about $268m before transaction costs. Further disposals could bring in another $500m before the year end, analysts predict.

[spikefader]

Excellent pic king.. I will pick up some shares soon..
This chart is screaming long now!

:lol: http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_Long.jpg

[Michaelk005]

Not only is the chart screeming long, but a very good opportunity to cetch a nice reversal is sitting in front of our faces,, look at MACD and a momentum chart.. Histogram is setting up perfect

[kingofthehill]

Elan partner on Antegren is BIIB, so thi should boost Elan also

this Weekends Barrons

Biogen Idec (BIIB: news, chart, profile), the merged biotech drugmaker, gets a secondhand plug from Alan Abelson in his Barron's column. Abelson cites a favorable outlook on the company from Larry Feinberg of Oracle Partners, who gained sizeably from his holdings in it last year. Feinberg says Biogen's Antegren medication for multiple sclerosis is likely to win FDA approval this summer. On the flip side of that expectation, Feinberg is shorting Serono (SRA: news, chart, profile), a Swiss maker of an existing multiple sclerosis drug. Overall, Abelson notes Feinberg's reversal on big drug stocks, as he sees a downturn ahead of political pushes for price controls, imports from Canada and easier licensing of generic drugs

[kingofthehill]

up 60 cents so far today, there might be an announcement this week on the companies progress on Alzheimer's Disease.



I love the chart posted above, nice work

[kingofthehill]

ROLL CALL !!!!!!!!!!!! ANYONE ELSE ON THIS TRAIN


ELN IS $21.71 READY FOR THE NEXT BREAKOUT !!!!!!

[tokyojoeskid]

since 20.55
nice pick

[mjmilam]

I am with you, King. Just doubled my shares at 20+.

Melody

[kingofthehill]

great day closed at the high of $22.00 ...

[kingofthehill]

Elan is 50-50 partner on all sales of Antegren with Biogen

Biogen is nearly $60.00 per share
Elan is $22.00 per share
there is more upside to Elan
FRIDAY, APRIL 16, 2004 1:17 p.m. EDT

ELECTRONIC Q&A |
Price's Puglia Likes Cash-Rich Big Caps

By JOHN KIMELMAN

Correction:

LARRY PUGLIA, the manager of T. Rowe Price Blue Chip Growth, beats the large-cap fund pack, whether you're measuring his performance by before- or after-tax returns. His focus on quality companies that generate lots of free cash flow has led to pre-tax returns that best the Standard & Poor's 500 index this year, and over the past three and five years. UnitedHealth Group and American International Group are among two of Puglia's strongest performers this year.
Puglia also scores well after the taxman takes his cut. Because the fund manager holds on to stocks for longer than the average large-cap fund manager -- he has held Citigroup, his largest position, since the fund's launch in 1993--the fund is among the most tax-efficient among the large stock offerings.
So far this year, Puglia's no-load fund, which has $7.5 billion in assets, is up 3.7%, beating the S&P 500 by almost a full percentage point. Barron's Online interviewed him by phone recently about some of his current favorites.

Barron's Online: What stock is your favorite pick, based on recent purchases?
Puglia: My largest new position is Biogen Idec, and that is the only one that I have been adding in the biotech space. This is a name that we bought from scratch recently. The driving force behind the purchase is Antegren, a drug for multiple sclerosis.
There is significant evidence that it not only lessens the severity of the disease and causes less frequent relapse of the disease. But there is underlying clinical evidence that shows that it actually reduces damage or lesions in the brain that are thought to be associated with multiple sclerosis Well, they are just getting approval for that product right now, so it hasn't been marketed yet. It is the kind of product that we really think could drive growth for a three- to five-year period,

[stocks54]

kingofthehill,

I have been following (on & off) your post regarding Elan. I waited so long to get in... Today I got in...I hope it still has some run left....

Thank for nice pick....

[kingofthehill]

plenty of time just dont let them shake you out with a stop loss order, this stock swings back and forth,

Elan will present at a Morgan Stanley conference May 5th ...these road shows have produced nice moves

I just bought June $30 strike price contract!

good luck

[mjmilam]

Hi King,

What is a June $30 strike price contract and where does one get them? I'm still new at this.

Thanks,
Melody

[kingofthehill]

im talking about option in Elan stock OPTIONS can be very rewarding and or dangerous investment...

so if your new just buy the stock . options are a real gamble

[kingofthehill]

Elan closed today at $23.53!

expect Antegren's launch to expand multiple sclerosis market, as market expansion has
happened following the launch of each new therapy. They are particularly interested in
viewing the Antegren and Avonex combination data given their leadership over Avonex with
Rebif. It appears they are interested in doing trials with Rebif and Antegren in combination if
the combination therapy data shows some synergistic benefit.

 The management believe that if substitution does occur within the multiple sclerosis market
following Antegren's approval then it will be the weakest product which will be targeted (they
believe that Copaxone, which has 30% market share in the US, is the weakest target as its
the only non beta-interferon therapy).

 Serono's Rebif continues to be the fastest growing therapy in multiple sclerosis and the
company are targeting the product having a market leadership position in both the US and
Europe by the time of Antegren's launch.

 Our view on the likely use of single or combination (Antegren & Avonex) therapy is that the
combination therapy will have to show a significant improvement over Antegren alone to
gain meaningful use. Assuming the combination therapy is not significantly more effective
than Antegren alone we believe that the most likely marketing approach for Antegren is to
market the monotherapy aggressively. If efficacy is comparable between the single and
combination therapy treatments the significantly higher cost and poor side-effect profile of
the combination product is likely to limit its use.
David Marshall +353 1 611 5925 david.marshall@ncb.ie
Orla Hartford +353 1 611 5844 david.marshall@ncb.ie
(EUR) 12/02 12/03 12/04e
Sales (m) 10,517 10,774 11,382
EBITDA (m) 1,487 1,475 1,556
EBITDA margin 14.1% 13.7% 13.7%
Net Profit rep.(m) 623 641 680
EPS (adj.) 1.33 1.36 1.47
Debt/Equity 0.3 0.4 0.3
EV/EBITDA 6.8 6.5 6.9
P/E (adj.) 12.4 10.6 12.1
P/BV 1.6 1.4 1.5
Div idend y ield 1.6 2.0 1.7
Market cap (EURm) 9,379 Free float 99.0%
(USD) 12/02 12/03 12/04e
Sales (m) 1,133 746 494
EBITDA (m) 216 (101) (170)
EBITDA margin 19.1% nm nm
Net Profit rep.(m) (2,391) (560) (359)
EPS (adj.) (0.49) (0.95) (0.84)
Debt/Equity 0.6 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA 17.3 nm nm
P/E (adj.) nm nm nm
P/BV 1.6 1.3 11.1
Div idend y ield 0.0 0.0 0.0
Market cap (USDm) 8,937 Free float 97.0%

[kingofthehill]

Elan: In Search of a Blockbuster

http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/picks/archive/2004/pick0422.htm

PICK OF THE DAY


Elan: In Search of a Blockbuster

The key to investing in biotechnology is to understand a company's pipeline of potential products. Erin Xie and Ajay Mehra, co-managers of State Street Research Health Sciences fund (SHSAX) scan medical research and attend conferences to get the skinny on promising new drugs.

One of the team's favorite companies is Irish biotechnology firm Elan (ELN). It has a 50% interest in a possible blockbuster called Antegren, a drug designed to treat multiple sclerosis.

In 2002, Elan's shares fell below $2 in the aftermath of an accounting scandal. They have since rebounded to $23. New management appears to be untainted and, says Xie, has made the company's finances "more transparent" -- meaning they're easier to interpret and more trustworthy.

Elan is losing money, but Xie thinks the company could earn as much as $1.20 per share in a couple of years. Four out of five analysts that closely cover the stock rate it a "buy."

--Jeffrey Kosnett

[kingofthehill]

DNA
ELN
BIIB

THATS ALL YOU GOTTA KNOW..PLENTY OF ROOM IN EACH

..but none will rival the move up ELN this summer

[carribean_mike]

King, Do you think that Biotech can run couter to the NASDAQ? The NASDAQ is acting like it wants to go lower.

[kingofthehill]

these 3 stock are special

DNA - its just a winner,

ELN&BIIB have in their hands a possible multi billion dollar drug

as soon as they proved they can deliver approval the stock will sky rocket

even the announcement that the paper work is filed an fast tracked by the FDA will give a punch to both

90% of my $$ is in ELAN, without any fear the CEO of Elan is a winner

I hit very nicely on OSIP options, and Elan will be even bigger

nothing is hotter than Biotech right now

[Michaelk005]

Nothing is hotter than this stock right now, I see easy $30 by end of may..
Quote me on that......

[tscanlon]

While I wish I picked some up back when king first mentioned ELN, I'm looking to pick some up in the near term anyone have any insight to ELN in the short term.

T

[tscanlon]

Picked some up in the early dip at the open at 22.98.

[kingofthehill]

copied from yahoo board on ELN

This is all I can think of as a first pass.

April - Alz conference in Montreal

May- SEC news

May - Crohn's Induction Trial announced

May - first-qtr earnings release, along with Antegren launch cost estimates

May - BLA filing of Antegren/MS with FDA

Jun - Filing of Antegren/MS in Europe

Jun - Prialt FDA filing

Jun - EPIL II retirement (or is it III??)

Jul - Fast Track review approved by FDA for Antegren/MS

Jul - IND Filing for revised AN 1792 vaccine (I think this will be announced just before the Alz Conference)

Jul - Alz Conference in Philadelphia***THIS COULD BE HUGE*****

Jul - rolling filing with FDA - BLA for Antegren/Crohns

Aug - 2nd qtr earnings release

Oct - R&D day

Nov - 3rd Qtr Earnings and guidance

Nov - Prialt Approval

Dec - Antegren/MS Approval (yeah, baby!)

Dec - Antegren RA Phase II results (maybe January, however)

[kingofthehill]

CLICK here for a very good report on Elan by Morgan Stanley

http://www.tixx.com/elnms0404.pdf


also check out this site www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[mjmilam]

FYI

Elan Sets Date of May 13 for First Quarter 2004 Financial Results, and June 17 for the Annual General Meeting; Elan Announces Filing of 2003 Annual Report on Form 20-F with SEC
4/29/2004 2:30:00 AM

DUBLIN, Ireland, Apr 29, 2004 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Elan Corporation, plc today announced that it will report its first quarter 2004 financial results on May 13, 2004, before U.S. and European financial markets open. The results announcement will be followed by a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time, 1:00 p.m. British Summer Time, with the investment community to discuss its first quarter 2004 results. This event will be webcast live and can be accessed by going to the Investor Relations section on Elan's website at www.elan.com. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call will be available for replay for 24 hours. The replay number is 800 633 8284 or +1 402 977 9140, and the reservation number is 21194057.

Elan will hold its Annual General Meeting at 10:30 a.m. British Summer Time on June 17, 2004 at the Shelbourne Hotel, St Stephens Green, Dublin 2, Ireland.

Elan has filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2003. The 2003 Annual Report on Form 20-F is available on the Investor Relations section of Elan's website at www.elan.com. Elan previously announced its unaudited U.S. GAAP financial information for the year ended December 31, 2003 on February 18, 2004. Elan has conducted a standard post balance sheet review and updated its original estimates based on more recent information received. The impact is to reduce shareholders' equity at December 31, 2003 by $6.1 million and increase Elan's diluted loss per share for the year ended December 31, 2003 by $0.01.

[kingofthehill]

Biogen Idec speeds building of plant

By Penni Crabtree
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
May 1, 2004

Biogen Idec said yesterday it is speeding construction of its $400 million Oceanside drug manufacturing plant to meet anticipated demand for its multiple sclerosis drug Antegren.

The Cambridge, Mass.-based biotechnology company, which maintains a large research campus in San Diego, plans to manufacture some of the drug in Oceanside if it is approved by federal regulators.

In February, Biogen Idec announced it would submit Antegren for government approval a year ahead of schedule because of strong results achieved in on-going clinical trials. Analysts speculate that it could be approved as early as this year.

The 500,000-square-foot manufacturing facility, along with a new $178 million research campus in San Diego, make up the West Coast hub of Biogen Idec, the third largest biotech in the world. The company was formed in November from the $5.8 billion merger of San Diego's Idec Pharmaceuticals and Massachusetts' Biogen.

As part of the accelerated plant construction schedule, the company plans to close its 70,000-square-foot Oceanside manufacturing facility this summer. The pilot plant, which made drugs used in clinical trials, employs about 150.

Amy Brockelman, a spokeswoman for Biogen Idec, said most of the 150 employees will be offered jobs in the new Oceanside manufacturing facility, which already employs 250, or at company plants in Massachusetts or North Carolina.

Brockelman said construction of the Oceanside plant should be completed by the end of the year. It is expected to take up to two more years to complete the necessary licensing and inspections required for the plant to be fully operational.

The company outlined plans for the Oceanside facility during a conference call to discuss its first quarter financial results. Biogen Idec reported a loss of $41 million, or 12 cents per share, compared with a profit of $41.2 million, or 24 cents, generated a year ago.

Excluding merger-related charges, the company's earnings per share were 40 cents, up from 24 cents last year.

Biogen Idec reported revenue of $542 million, up from $437 million on an adjusted pro forma basis in the year-ago quarter.





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Penni Crabtree: (619) 293-1237; penni.crabtree@uniontrib.com

[Websman]

Hey, King of the Hill....or uh..Mountain, after that call on osip...

It looks like you are big on medical stocks and have a keen intuition when it comes to them. So let me run one by you that I have come across.

This little find of mine is FONR, trading at $1.34.

FONR makes a standup MRI unit that seems to have interested a lot of doctors. Sales have doubled so far this year and the outlook is not bad. The earnings announcment comes out on 5/15 and, chances are, is it will be a very good one.

I am not a medical tech expert and definitely a stock expert, but this looks good to my untrained eye. What do you think? Any thoughts anyone?

5/15 is ten days away so there is time to investigate and I'll be doing just that. :idea:

[Michaelk005]

Anybody consider buying some options on ELN, i think it would be a good move, get them cheap right now on a $23 strike.

[kingofthehill]

i had trouble trying to post here the last week it kept logging me out .. but anyway here is the weeklyy update


BIG BIG NEWS
Press Release Source: Elan Corporation, plc


Elan and Biogen Idec Announce Webcast of ANTEGREN ENACT-2 Maintenance Data to Be Presented at DDW on May 19, 2004
Friday May 7, 8:30 am ET


DUBLIN, Ireland, CAMBRIDGE, Ma. & SAN DIEGO--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 7, 2004--Elan Corporation, plc and Biogen Idec today announced that the companies will host a joint discussion of the ANTEGREN® (natalizumab) ENACT-2 data (Crohn's disease maintenance trial) to be presented at Digestive Disease Week ("DDW") during the Late-Breaking Abstract Symposium on May 19, 2004 beginning at 8:30 a.m. Central Time. Following the symposium, the companies will host a joint discussion of the data at 11:00 a.m. Central Time, 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 5:00 p.m. British Summer Time with the investment community.


The webcast announcement wording is the KEY to all of the following speculation:

".... Following the symposium, the companies will host a joint discussion of the data at 11:00 a.m. Central Time, 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, 5:00 p.m. British Summer Time with the investment community."

here is what a fellow ELn invesotr thinks ...and I agree..

The key phrase is 'WITH THE INVESTMENT COMMUNITY!!!!' Does anyone here think they are going to say to the investment community what they have already said - 'WE ARE STILL DISCUSSING THIS WITH THE FDA' or 'WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE AN EARLY FILING?'

Not likely. Why would they highlight bad or no news like that?

There WILL be a filing announcement - the key will be is filing before or after the new Induction trial. The Companies are going to explain this on the 19th, one way or another. Again, my guess is the decision will be FILE NOW, otherwise why have a webcast?

As an aside, we don't even know where the webcast will be from - apparently NOT from the DDW, or will it be??? If it is at the DDW site (unlikely, IMHO) then it would be directed at clinicians. But they have clearly said 'investment community.'

At any rate, here is the outline of my reasoning on this:

1. I speculate that ELN/BIIB met with the FDA earlier this week. [Remember that Morgan Stanley (who are very close to ELN management) says that the FDA meeting re: Crohns would be within the 2-month period from 11Apr-11Jun. Recall also that Elan is managing the Crohn's program, so they are closer to it than BIIB.]

2. Further to that, my guess is that the FDA told them:

'You CAN file for maintenance and then amend the NDA if the induction trial proves successful. This is up to you.'

3. Rather than immediately announce a filing, the companies are reviewing the FDA position and most importantly a Crohn's filing effect on the MS Filing, and any other relevant information (off label usage potential, plant capacity, etc, etc, etc).

4. After this ELN/BIIB review over the coming week, they will make a decision on when they will file.

5. IF they make the decision to file now, they will announce it on the 13th, IMHO, right before the quarterly CC (just like they did with the MS filing on 18 Feb.)

6. If they do not announce it on the 13th, then I suspect the Companies have decided to delay the Crohn's filing (because of possible effects on the MS filing).

7. An alternative explanation is that the meeting with the FDA concerning Crohn's filing has been scheduled before the 19th, and the Companies know they will have a decision on file/no file by the 19th. Hence the explanation to the investment community.

8. Another explanation might be that they announce the Antegren MS filing, and then highlight possible off-label usage fro Crohn's. They clearly say in the PR that it will be a '...joint discussion of the data (the Crohn's maintenance data)..' so I think it unlikely that they will talk about MS filing. Also, for companies to publicly encourage off-label usage would be ethically wrong (IMHO) and would royally piss-off the FDA (again IMHO).

All the above is pure speculation, but the webcast is a great development.

[spikefader]

careful out there
http://mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5341#5341

[kingofthehill]

day to day i dont know what will happen with price per share .. but here is what i do know ..buying this stock will make you much more money than any other stock that i know of by the end of thsi year..the company is still out of favor with mainstream writers...they only know one biotech DNA

this is $40.00 by year end based upon the upcoming FDA fastrack approval

READ THIS http://www.wchstv.com/newsroom/healthyforlife/2025.shtml#transcript

“There are about 400,000 Americans with MS, and about 200 people are diagnosed with MS every week.
Worldwide, MS affects about 2.5 million people”

That’s an $8 billion market in the U.S. (400,000 * 20000) and a $50 billion market worldwide (2,500,000 * 20000), for a product priced at $20,000 per year. Antegren should be priced close to that mark. A recent post by Azernie (361788) shows the average cost of the existing therapies at about $16,000, with Rebif costing about $19,000. I think Kelly Martin hinted about something close to 20% above existing therapies. It doesn’t really matter. I just want to demonstrate the potential for Antegren over and above existing market penetration.

Current therapies, Avonex, Rebif, Copaxone, Betaserone, have totalled annualised sales of close to $4.5 billion for the last quarter. In my opinion, this low level of penetration is because of limited efficiency, regular painful injections, and serious side effects. In fact, the number of dropouts from existing treatments is estimated to be around 100,000. That’s a market of $2 billion on its own.

Antegren appears at LEAST twice as efficient as the existing treatments. It is administered once a month, and has an excellent safety profile over 4 years of studies. Side effects have been no different than in the placebo group in all cases.

I can’t fathom why Antegren wouldn’t completely cannibalise the existing market. This is a very serious illness. Patients and neurologist can’t afford to play games with this. There’s only one decision to make.

IMO, Antegren will also expand the penetrated market potentially by multiples. It wouldn’t surprise me if Antegren exceeded annual sales of $10 billion for the MS indication alone.

The mind boggles when you think of the many other possible indications for this product. IMO, it’s a shoe in to be the first line treatment for many auto immune diseases.

Elan and Biogen have no chance of staying independent, unless they play this potential down while they grow the PPS. TGFTSec!

[spikefader]

here is what i do know ..buying this stock will make you much more money than any other stock that i know of by the end of thsi year..
I hope you are right. But honestly, you don't know this. You can only assert this. The fact is, sometimes there can be a drastic change of perspective due to some unforeseen factor that leaves bagholders wondering why. And often, large moves can happen before the news comes out. Stubbornly thinking you are right about a stock will eventually catch you out. If you are well diversified, and factor this into your trading plan, then GREAT. But any traders out there following your advice and putting a large chunk of capital into one or a few stocks might well find themselves deep in the emotion of regret should ELN do the type of price drop back in '02. Don't throw caution to the wind and risk it - 'cuz it ain't worth it.

Friday's SHS was the warning sign for today's drop.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN.jpg

[kingofthehill]

there is alot more to this unique stock play than charts...if i read charts i would have never bought the stock at $5.00 and held ...when main stream news picks up on what We have here ..the stock will double

[P06.082] Single-Patient Study for the Emergency Use of Natalizumab (Antegran) in the Treatment of Pediatric Multiple Sclerosis

Shehzad Choudry, Shane Maxwell, Douglas R. Jeffery, Wisnton-Salem, NC, Michael Panzara, Boston, MA, E. Steve Roach, Winston-Salem, NC

OBJECTIVE: To assess the safety and efficacy of monthly IV doses of natalizumab (Antegran) administered to a 5-year old patient with aggressive multiple sclerosis (MS) BACKGROUND: Pediatric MS is uncommon and there have been no controlled trials of standard immunomodulatory therapy. The present report describes a 5 year old patient with onset at 18 months treated with natalizumab (Antegran) as rescue therapy. Antegran is a humanized monoclonal IgG4 antibody to the a4 integrin. The patient had an uncomplicated aseptic meningitis at 15 months. Three months later she developed a right hemiparesis and was diagnosed with acute disseminated encephalomyelitis. MRI scan showed multiple white matter lesions. Three months later she suffered a partial transverse myelitis and her MRI scan showed more new lesions. She then developed ataxia and subsequently a bilateral optic neuritis accompanied by further changes on MRI. Oligoclonal bands were negative but extensive evaluation failed to reveal a more likely diagnosis and the diagnosis of MS was later confirmed by brain biopsy. She was started on interferon beta-1a and titrated up to 21 mcg IM twice weekly. Despite treatment she continued to show evidence of aggressive inflammatory disease and required frequent IV methylprednisolone (MP) and eventually cyclophosphamide. She tolerated treatment poorly and progressed despite therapy. She suffered a severe right optic neuritis with complete loss of vision in her right eye and a cervical transverse myelitis. She was treated with IV MP and plasma exchange with only minimal recovery. At this point she remained quadriparetic and blind from her MS. She began treatment with Antegran on an emergency basis approved by the FDA and the IRB. DESIGN/METHODS: Given her age and weight, she was initially dosed at 3 mg/kg monthly for four months and later at 6 mg/kg to achieve adequate drug serum concentrations. Therapeutic effect was assessed by MRI, relapse frequency, and EDSS. Safety assessments included exams, vital signs, adverse event monitoring, and laboratories as well as monitoring pharmacokinetics. RESULTS: Following 29 weeks of therapy she has continued to improve clinically and is now fully ambulatory. Vision remains severely impaired with only partial recovery of vision in her right eye. MRI scans have shown a marked reduction in gadolinium enhancement and in new lesion formation with minimal disease activity. She developed an apparent IFN related hepatitis resulting in the cessation of IFN therapy. No elevation of liver function tests or other drug related adverse events has been apparent on Antegran alone. CONCLUSIONS: The use of Antegran has been safe and effective for 29 weeks in a five year old patient with aggressive MS who failed to respond to standard immunomodulating therapy. Supported by: Biogen, Idec, and Elan Pharmaceuticals.
Category - MS and Related Diseases
SubCategory - Therapeutics

Thursday, April 29, 2004 3:00 PM

Poster: Multiple Sclerosis: Therapeutics I (3:00 PM - 7:00 PM)

[spikefader]

Poor little girl with MS. Prayers for her.

It'd be great if the stock doubled for you and all who ride it. That would be an awesome pick, and I'd be at the front of the line to say good job.

Forgive me if I'm thread crapping, but most successful traders, if not all, will tell you, "Don't marry a stock and ignore what the market tells you" or the chart tells you. Every stock is unique, that's for sure. This stands out as having reason to be bought, but the market tells me that there is reason to be cautious with this stock.

Consider these questions:
What's the worst possible news that could hit this stock?
What would happen to the stock price if that news came to pass?
Where is support on the chart? And more importantly, where are the holes on the chart. The gap below 10 is a big fat glaring irrefutable hole. Sure, it was a runaway gap and the stock could turn into a TASR, but if bad news hits it, that gap may get filled.
Are you prepared to ride it down to the gap and expose yourself to that much risk?

These questions apply to any stock we trade. If you're happy with the risk then excellent. Everyone has different risk/reward tolerances. If a 50% or worse loss is acceptable to someone and they have factored it in to their game plan, then Great! I throw these thoughts out there so that people know that a 50% loss from current levels is at least a possibility as of today.

Peace. 8)

[kingofthehill]

Spike I welcome and truly appreciate your input ..the next 30 days will be huge for this company, I'm betting on the integrity of the new management and the known trial results.


best of luck to all the conference call is Thursday

today was crazy

[kingofthehill]

here is the early report.. I will post more after the conference call


Reuters
UPDATE - Elan trims Q1 loss, says drug filings on track
Thursday May 13, 5:02 am ET
By Kevin Smith


(Updates with further analyst comment, background)
DUBLIN, May 13 (Reuters) - Irish drug maker Elan Corp Plc (Irish:ELN.I - News) narrowed its loss in the first quarter after cutting costs and selling off assets and confirmed on Thursday it was on track to file applications for its flagship drug Antegren.

The net loss narrowed to $67.1 million, or $0.17 per share, from a pro forma $140.2 million, or $0.40 per share in the first quarter of 2003, while revenues from retained products rose seven percent to $75.4 million, the company said.

Former high-flier Elan, which has clawed its way back from a collapse in its stock in 2002, said it was on schedule to file Antegren for multiple sclerosis and Prialt for chronic pain with U.S. and European regulators in the current quarter.

It also said discussions were continuing on a potential filing for Antegren as a treatment for Crohns disease.

Analysts gave a broad welcome to the results, but had hoped for more details on Antegren's progress and potential.

"In general terms the numbers were good but in a way the day-to-day operational performance is dwarfed by the Antegren opportunity and there was no real newsflow on that," said Peter Frawley, analyst at Dublin-based Merrion Capital.

He said further details could emerge from a conference call with the company later on Thursday.

Elan, which has raised $2 billion from an asset sale programme to pay down debt, has made a dramatic comeback since 2002 when it was hit by concerns about liquidity and a probe by U.S. authorities into its accounting practices.

Shares in the company were up 3.6 percent at 17.20 euros by 0840 GMT on a moderately positive Dublin bourse, though dealers said the price was largely catching up with the previous close in New York, where the stock is mainly traded.

The share price, which plunged to less than two euros in 2002 from a 2001 peak of nearly 74 euros, was catapulted to two-year highs in March by news Elan was ready to seek regulatory approval for Antegren as a treatment for MS more than 12 months ahead of schedule.

If approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (News - Websites) (FDA), Antegren -- which Elan is developing with Biogen Idec (NasdaqNM:BIIB - News) -- could be on the shelves by early 2005 in a hotly-contested market some analysts estimate could be worth more than $6 billion by 2010.

Investors also have high hopes for Antegren as a treatment for Crohn's disease and for pain drug Prialt, both of which could also hit the market in the first quarter of 2005.

Elan's total first-quarter revenues fell to $159 million from $224.7 million due to its disposal programme, while total operating expenses were reduced by 29

[spikefader]

Spike I welcome and truly appreciate your input ..the next 30 days will be huge for this company, I'm betting on the integrity of the new management and the known trial results.
best of luck to all the conference call is Thursday
today was crazy
Hey that's cool that you are open to debate and input.

Yesterday's craziness leaves ELN with two nice intraday bullish inverted SHSs for earnings. Nice technical reason to buy it. The pivot is 20.30, which obviously will be 'pivotal' :lol:

:shock: <<-- that emoticon is what bulls will look like if there is a close beneath yesterday's LOD.

[New-born baby]

Spike, :shock:

I've been following the discussion between you and KingoftheHill. I have been careful to buy ELN and sell as I see it move backwards (I've probably bought and sold it 10 diffo times :oops: ). What do you think is next for ELN? :? I would appreciate your thoughts.

Thank You--and thank you for all of your Scientific Stock Analysis.
:mrgreen:

[spikefader]

Spike, :shock:

I've been following the discussion between you and KingoftheHill. I have been careful to buy ELN and sell as I see it move backwards (I've probably bought and sold it 10 diffo times :oops: ). What do you think is next for ELN? :? I would appreciate your thoughts.

Thank You--and thank you for all of your Scientific Stock Analysis.
:mrgreen:
You're welcome.
Not long ago, I thought this stock looked like 'Field of Dreams', and now, alas, the charts speaks to me of bearishness. Trade 'em as you see 'em and you can't go wrong. Here's what I see:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_short_bias.jpg

[kingofthehill]

for those that play options the recent price movment south is a buying opportunity ..quick flip July options strike $20.00 and January 05 strike $25.00 .. options are very dangerous..so DONT USE THIS STOCK TO LEARN OPTIONS..

Financial Times London article today

.

COMPANIES UK & IRELAND: Elan plans $850m debt restructure to finance drugs
By David Firn, Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals Correspondent
Financial Times; May 14, 2004



Elan is planning to restructure about $850m (£506m) of debt to finance the launch of the new drugs that it says will return it to profitability by the end of next year.

The Irish biotechnology company reported a sharp decline in first-quarter revenues after selling products to avoid a cash-crunch last year.

It has about $1.1bn of liquid assets, but needs increased financial flexibility to invest in sales and marketing infrastructure for Antegren, a multiple sclerosis treatment it is developing with Biogen Idec, the world's third largest biotechnology company, and Prialt a painkiller.

Kelly Martin, who was brought in two years ago after an accounting scandal wiped 90 per cent off the company's market capitalisation, said Elan would launch a bond issue in the second half, to refinance two tranches of debt due over the next 12 months.

Mr Martin said: "I guess we are just another boring results-driven company now. We are very focused on the commercial roll-out of the pipeline and we are determined to keep delivering."

Pre-tax losses were down from $136.8m to $66.2m. Revenues fell 29 per cent to $159m, partly because of the sale of products. Revenues from retained products was up 7 per cent to $75.4m. The loss per share was 16 cents (36 cents).

The shares closed up 57 cents at €17.17 in Dublin, valuing Elan at €6.6bn (£4.6bn).

FT Comment

* Elan is not quite a boring results-driven companyyet. But it looks as though Mr Martin's medicine is working. He has unravelled a complex web of off-balance sheet research agreements and turned the Irish patient round to create a leaner, fitter biotechnology company that has seen its value rise more than threefold in 12 months. The real story now is all about the research and development pipeline and Elan's is more promising than many of its rivals. A bond should tide the company over until it becomes profitable. As long as there are no nasty surprises to delay the launch of Prialt and Antegren, Elan looks as though it is ready to check out of intensive care. If crucial Antegren data, expected to be released at a US gastroenterology conference next week, is positive, there may be upside also in the shares.

[spikefader]

Last stand for the bulls??

While I'm bearish on the stock for now, there are some technical reasons out there to buy it. If you look long enough, you'll find an argument for both cases. I'm bearish using channels, but it sets up for a long right now at current prices (20.00 to 20.10) based on the chart below.

If this setup fails and there is a daily close below the lower blue bollinger band, that will be just another reason to be bearish on it, and to look for a smart entry short, or to exit a long position.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_last_bullish_stand.jpg

[spikefader]

:shock: Patterns work 8) No regrets I didn't take it. I stuck with my plan, so I'm smilin' :lol:
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_take_profit.jpg

[kingofthehill]

what a day .. this is a crazy stock im selling my calls for MAY AND JUNE ..HOLDING JULY ... BUYING 05 06 ...GOTTA CUT BACK ON THE CRAZY SWINGS...MY MAY OPTIONS ARE UP 200% TODAY

SOLD..SOLD..ILL BUY NEXT YEARS ON THE DROP WHENEVER THAT IS I STILL HAVE TONS OF LONG STOCK..I WONT SELL FOR AT LEAST A YEAR ...BUT OPTIONS YOU GOTTA BUY AND SELL....LATER

[spikefader]

what a day .. this is a crazy stock im selling my calls ...
Nice.
I'm fading the spike.
http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5478#5478

EDIT: Out for a dime pain.

[kingofthehill]

Elan to Sponsor the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease
Monday May 17, 8:31 am ET


SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--May 17, 2004--Elan Corporation(NYSE:ELN - News):
ADVERTISEMENT


Company to present new data from its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Program
and host symposium featuring leading Alzheimer's disease researchers


Leading Researchers to Share Groundbreaking Information and Resources

on the Etiology, Pathology, and Treatment of Alzheimer's

Elan Pharmaceuticals, Inc. today announced that it is the premier sponsor of The 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders, presented by the Alzheimer's Association. New data from Elan's Alzheimer's research and development programs will be presented at the conference, and Elan will also host a symposium featuring leading Alzheimer's researchers from throughout the field. The conference will take place at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia from July 17th through July 22nd.

"Alzheimer's disease currently affects more than 13 million people worldwide and the number is expected to grow significantly in the coming years. At Elan, our scientists are deeply committed to advancing the understanding of Alzheimer's and ultimately finding an effective treatment for this devastating disease," said Dr. Dale Schenk, Elan's Chief Scientific Officer. "We are pleased to take a leading role in the International Conference and to actively support the open scientific exchange that is critical to identifying fundamental improvements in the care and treatment of people with Alzheimer's."

"There has been immense progress in Alzheimer research in the last two decades," said Sheldon Goldberg, President and CEO of the Alzheimer's Association, the organizers of the event. "The International Conference is the primary platform for showcasing new knowledge and new discoveries, and a forum for sharing information across research areas. We are at a critical time now where preventing Alzheimer's is an objective that we believe the research community can achieve in the next decade. The newest treatment advances in Alzheimer's disease and steps toward prevention will be on display in Philadelphia."

Elan has been at the forefront of Alzheimer's disease research for almost two decades, in particular in advancing the understanding of the beta-amyloid peptide - A-beta - that is the main building block of amyloid plaques, which are a hallmark of Alzheimer's disease neuropathology. Elan is also conducting research on beta secretase inhibitors and gamma secretase inhibitors. Both beta and gamma secretase contribute to the formation of A-beta.

Elan, in collaboration with Wyeth, is researching a number of novel immunotherapeutic approaches as potential treatments for Alzheimer's disease. The Elan-Wyeth research involving beta-amyloid and plaque will be the subject of a number of presentations at the conference, including key new findings from a Phase II immunotherapy clinical trial. While that compound is no longer in development, Elan and Wyeth have initiated a Phase I trial studying a new monoclonal antibody specifically designed and engineered to clear the neurotoxin beta-amyloid peptide that accumulates in the brains of patients with Alzheimer's disease.

At the conference, Elan will also present data on its research in beta secretase inhibitors and gamma secretase inhibitors.

It is currently estimated that 4.5 million people in the United States suffer from AD and more than 13 million worldwide. Given anticipated increases in the population age of the United States and other countries, it is expected that more than 37 million people worldwide will be afflicted by the disease by 2025. Additionally, by 2010, Medicare costs for beneficiaries with Alzheimer's are expected to increase by approximately 50 percent, to $50 billion, according to the Alzheimer's Association.

About Elan

Elan Corporation, plc is a neuroscience-based biotechnology company that is focused on discovering, developing, manufacturing and marketing advanced therapies in neurology, autoimmune diseases, and severe pain. Elan (NYSE: ELN - News) shares trade on the New York, London and Dublin Stock Exchanges. For additional information about the company

[spikefader]

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_inside_day.jpg

[kingofthehill]

We are at $22.68 interday .. BIG NEWS IN THE AM


In a 44-page report issued today:

"Base Case Supports $27 Price Target

 Completion of the restructuring program and resolution of the liquidity issues leaves Elan’s investment case squarely focussed on the potential of the pipeline. We expect Antegren to be approved in H1 2005 as a first-line treatment for multiple sclerosis (MS) and for the product to penetrate the MS market steadily gaining 28% market share by 2007. If a fast-track review is granted, approval for MS in Q4 2004 is possible.


 We expect the progression of the pipeline on schedule to continue to benefit sentiment and allow the company to achieve operating profitability in H2 2005. Over the coming two months we expect significant pipeline progress with the filing of the BLA and MAA for Antegren for MS in the US and Europe by the end of Q2 2004, the possible early filing of Antegren for Crohn’s disease in Europe and the presentation of follow up Alzheimer’s disease Phase II trial data.


 Valuation assessments based on either NPV/sum-of-the-parts or prospective earnings metrics support a
price target of $27. Within these valuation analyses, we have not attributed any value for Antegren’s use in rheumatoid arthritis, have assumed a 2006 launch for Crohn’s disease and have conservatively valued the Alzheimer’s research developments. Favourable clinical data in these areas over the coming quarters would likely provide upside to our valuation assessment, suggesting that further upside over our price target is possible. In addition, if Elan can exceed our conservative price assumption for Antegren a significantly higher price target is also supported (see page 7).
We re-iterate our Buy recommendation."

[kingofthehill]

I HOPE YOU GUYS ALL MADE MONEY TODAY... SPIKE YOU GOTTA BE NUTS TO SHORT THIS STOCK....

GOOD LUCK TO ALL ...READ THE NEWS..AFTER THE BELL

[spikefader]

SPIKE YOU GOTTA BE NUTS TO SHORT THIS STOCK....
8) Fortune favors the brave my friend. But seriously, I'd only be nuts if I shorted without a stop or failed to follow what the market tells me. The channel short failed, so I took a dime pain on it, which is a very acceptable loss.

Channel-wise, there is still no bullish channel break. I'll be looking to short another channel touch unless it turns up or breaks out in the meantime.

But looks like you snuck away with ignoring the short signal, so good for you :D

[kingofthehill]

these are not my numbers but the timeline is dead on , its been fun posting here and being able to read my thought all in one place,,this stock has 350 million shares out there so please dont think im pumping im just informing the readers here about the next 6 months of a HUGE NYSE STOCK....against the market this stock has performed...i AM not selling a share here.. I will not sell my July options until they file for MS with the FDA and some news of the ALZHEIMERS program>>>... YOU GUYS HAVE A 45-60 DAY WINDOW TO REALLY MAKE A NICE MOVE HERE...GOOD LUCK PLEASE READ UP ON THE COMPANY BEFORE BUYING
Potential Elan Newsflow/Events for the next year (updated 19-05-04):

Q2 ‘04
· Presentation of six month Antegren Phase III Crohn’s disease data at Digestive Disease Weekly conference today.
· Rheumatoid arthritis phase II trials begun (6 month trial).
· Antegren for MS filing with the FDA & in Europe in May (earlier than expected). Notification from the FDA within 60 days of whether fast-track review is granted.
· Prialt filing with the FDA in May and release of Phase III data.
· EPILs retired with sale of certain assets (including its holding in Galen).
· Resolution of the SEC investigation with a benign result.
· Settlement of class action suits with minimum impact on Elan’s bottom-line (“fcuk off” money for the lawyers) (paid for by insurance).
· Analysts up their price targets for Elan shortly thereafter, including coverage initiated by Merrill Lynch and UBS.
· Credit agencies upgrade Elan’s credit ratings.
· Sale of Myobloc.
· The share price goes to $30 by end of Q2.

Q3 ‘04
· Elan meets with FDA in July to determine Antegren Crohn’s regulatory pathway.
· Arbitration process with Pfizer/Pharmacia decision in July in Elan’s favour with Elan getting 100% control of the beta secretase inhibitor Alzheimer’s research.
· Elan’s second-generation Alzheimer vaccine, the AB immune conjugate, finalises its pre-clinical phase and an IND is filed with the FDA before July 17th Conf.
· Elan’s “explosive” presentation at the Alzheimer’s conference in Philadelphia in July where Elan will announce the strength of their Alzheimer’s research including presentation of Phase II results from abandoned AN-1792 study showing evidence of cognitive improvements.
· Share Price rockets above $35 in July.
· FDA gives Elan fast-track approval for Antegren (MS) in late July.
· Prialt approved in Europe by September.
· Share price goes above $40 by end of Q3.

Q4 ‘04
· Elan’s “R&D day” (mentioned at the SG Cowen Biotech Conference) probably will be early Q4 when Elan will present the full extent and strength of its pipeline to the investment community at large.
· Antegren Crohn’s filing in Europe.
· Release of Antegren MS 12-month Phase III data announced at ECTRIMs meeting in Vienna in October.
· Antegren for Crohn’s filing with the FDA in November.
· Prialt approved by FDA by November.
· Share price goes above $50 by December 2004.

Q1 ‘05
· Elan launches “blockbuster” Antegren.
· Elan launches Prialt (the first in its class in treating severe pain) January. This is a compound that is 1,000 times more potent than morphine. It also has a number of other advantages: there’s no development of tolerance, there’s no withdrawal concerns & no respiratory depression. Prialt will target three areas: cancer patients, AIDS patients and neuropathic pain.
· Elan files an IND for its (AD) gamma secretase inhibitor.
· Results from Phase II RA trial announced showing Antegren being as good as, if not better than, existing RA drugs with no side effects, i.e., more efficacious & safer. Two large Phase III RA trials initiated.
· Antegren touted as a $10+B drug with an “oral” possibility.
· Elan announces successful Alzheimer’s monoclonal antibody Phase I results and roll into a Phase II trial.
· Share price goes above $60 by the end of Q1 2005.

Unless, of course, Elan comes into play as soon as the SEC investigation is concluded (assuming before this summer) and the share price will hit $50 easy this summer as the big sharks circle.




http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=eln

[New-born baby]

Gentleman,

Have you noticed that IBD gives ELN a relative strength rating of 99? :shock: I understand, of course, that their rating is a trailing rating. If it fell rapidly, they would change the rating after the fact. On the other hand, after all the market uncertainty we have had since March, you have to say that a stock with a book value of $2.39 has done pretty well.

I enjoy the interaction, and I anxiously await the next posts of both the King and the Spike.

[spikefader]

my stop 23.51
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_short2.jpg
yes, new-born, it's sure had a great run.
trade 'em as ya see 'em

[spikefader]

Ya know what......I was thinking I probably shouldn't be posting short trades against a position you're holding. It's pretty inconsiderate when I think about it. I apologize.

That will be my last posted short for ELN, or any stock I know someone else is holding long. But perhaps you/others would still be interested in technical charts for reasons to be cautious on the long side???

[New-born baby]

Spike :shock:

PLEASE, PLEASE do not stop posting on ELN or any other stock. I want the informantion--trade 'em as you see 'em. I do ot think it is rude at all. If all we wanted on this site was a bunch of "yes" men, then there would be no purpose to having this forum. Dissenters are welcome, as far as I am concerned.

So please keep posting them as you see them.

[New-born baby]

Spike :shock:

How long will you ride the short of ELN? I would like the information for my own personal education. And congrats to you on the $$ short.

[spikefader]

Spike :shock:

How long will you ride the short of ELN? I would like the information for my own personal education. And congrats to you on the $$ short.
Thank you, but it's early days. Only time will tell if this gives rewards. I'll ride this until I get a bullish signal or 5 clear waves down on daily, perhaps 15.00, or gap fill, depending on what the chart tells me to do.

The fact is, ELN does have a bullish case, as King points out. But whether or not buyers want to step up to the plate is yet to be seen. Many times I have seen stocks that have good news fall victim to fear and retracements of very bullish moves, like ELN has had. I remember when I shorted ELN a couple of years ago, that it fell fast and furious. What the market gives, the market can just as quickly (usually more quickly) take away, leaving people with stunned looks :shock: Pharmaceutical companies are volatile and anyone/everyone who participates in trading them will learn to appreciate that fact soon enough. This is why stops are so important!

[spikefader]

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_target.jpg

[New-born baby]

Spike :shock:

Thanks for the lunch money. My wife wanted me to take her to dinner, so I shorted ELN for the change to take her out. 20 minutes, $230.57--almost covered the bill. Thanks!

I'll probably short the thing again, or maybe I'll buy the thing again, depending upon what I think will happen. Please keep us informed.

[spikefader]

WTG new_born. Glad you got some of it. :D

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_caution_longs.jpg

[Websman]

Spike,
Are you sure your not Psychic?

I dumped OFG after you gave your analysis, and, once again, you were right. You saved me from a bigger loss. Thanks!

You could make a fortune by starting your own newsletter. You could be like William Oneil. Instead of IBD it would be SBD. "Spikes Business Daily"

[noshadyldy]

I agree with the others, Spike. Don't stop posting your thoughts, :shock: trade 'em as you see 'em and speak up. I scramble for, and gather up the pearls of wisdom that spew from your mouth. (graphic, no?) So... spit 'em out. :wink:

many thanks for all you share.
margie

[spikefader]

Spike,
Are you sure your not Psychic?

I dumped OFG after you gave your analysis, and, once again, you were right. You saved me from a bigger loss. Thanks!

You could make a fortune by starting your own newsletter. You could be like William Oneil. Instead of IBD it would be SBD. "Spikes Business Daily"
Good for you Websman. Glad you feel better now that you're out. Good control there pal. It's hard to bite the bullet and you did it. Now remember, the stock may end higher than you sold, but there's no valid reason to buy it - technically that is....YET. You may get a good opportunity to re-enter it when it makes sense to. If it doesn't give you that perfect entry, just keep waiting and looking elsewhere. The patient early bird gets the worm. You've got to wait until the chart is absolutely screaming at you that it's a value buy, and you've got to be early enough in the entry to minimize your risk.

Perhaps one day I'll start a newsletter :D. We'll see. Thanks for the encouraging words.

[spikefader]

I agree with the others, Spike. Don't stop posting your thoughts, :shock: trade 'em as you see 'em and speak up. I scramble for, and gather up the pearls of wisdom that spew from your mouth. (graphic, no?) So... spit 'em out. :wink:

many thanks for all you share.
margie
lol ya, graphic! well, glad you can find some pearls. I think I may have hijacked King's thread though, so perhaps I'd better take it to my thread. The last thing King probably wants to see in here are people gunning for the short side!

[spikefader]

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_stop_to_even.jpg

[spikefader]

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_SHS.jpg

[New-born baby]

Spike :shock:

The test has been rescheduled for Monday. The market is up too much today.

EDIT: You are right, Spike :shock: It broke the neckline. Monday I am going to short this thing and let it ride.

[carribean_mike]

King, we got some news last week and it didn't do squat for the stock. What's up? Are technicals over-riding fundamentals/expectations?

[Websman]

King, we got some news last week and it didn't do squat for the stock. What's up? Are technicals over-riding fundamentals/expectations?

Look what happened to OFG. They had a fantastic earnings report, yet the stock just went down tubes in a matter of days.

I'm betting that all of this madness will end before too long and these stocks will be hotter than Hugh hefners latest girlfriends. :shock:

Right now is bargain shopping time. 8)

[New-born baby]

If you'd like a picture about how ELN might jump if the FDA approves its new drugs, take a look at PHRM's chart for Thursday, 20 May 2004. When the news hit of FDA approval, PHRM jumped over $8 in one second. HUGE HOLE. And that on the info that its new drug for MDS would be worth only $51m per year. Hmmm. What did the King say that ELN's new drug would be worth? A measly $4B? :shock:

But right now I am shorting the stock. I just don't want to be caught in an $8 bounce upward when I am betting the thing downward.

Say, King, when is the next announcement coming out from ELN? I want to make sure I cover my short before they open their mouths.

[kingofthehill]

another nice day for ELAN ... closed at $23.18

fast track approval could come as soon as 38 days !! from today ... THAT IS NOT PRICED IN AT ALL... cross your fingers...


SPIKE IM HOPING YOUR CHART SHOWS THAT THIS IS THE START OF A NEW LEG UP ???

[spikefader]

another nice day for ELAN ... closed at $23.18
SPIKE IM HOPING YOUR CHART SHOWS THAT THIS IS THE START OF A NEW LEG UP ???
King, you'll be relieved to see an ELAN intraday bullflag today, and channel has turned up. I thought it was a goner with that hourly SHS neckline break I posted earlier.
I have moved my stop to at even and will exit at nearest logical intraday support tomorrow, based on that channel turn up.
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_update_May25.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_update_intraday_bullflag.jpg

[kingofthehill]

there was one huge buy today 443,000 shares @23.00

Elan and Biogen File for Approval
The Motley Fool Take
Biotechnology

By Charly Travers
May 26, 2004

As Jeff Hwang wrote in February, Elan (NYSE: ELN) and Biogen IDEC (Nasdaq: BIIB) were to file for approval of Antegren much earlier than expected. Yesterday, the companies announced that they had submitted a Biologics License Application (BLA) to the FDA for Antegren in the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). So the ball is now officially rolling. If Antegren is approved, Biogen IDEC and Elan will share the profits equally.


Well before Biogen merged with IDEC Pharmaceuticals, it was a leader in the multiple sclerosis field. Avonex was launched in 1996, and on its back Biogen became one of the few biotech companies to become a profitable business operation. Avonex is a true blockbuster with $1.2 billion in sales last year, but it's a mature product and the company needs a follow-up drug, such as Antegren, to drive growth into the future.


The Antegren BLA filing in MS comes about a year earlier than the initial time line for the drug's development. Biogen IDEC and Elan are conducting two phase III clinical trials. These trials are to assess the effects of Antegren after two years of treatment.


What's interesting is that Biogen IDEC and Elan are filing for approval after having just one year of treatment data in hand (though they are going to finish the trials). While the companies are not disclosing this data to the public, a reasonable assumption would be that Antegren must have shown a statistically significant benefit on the efficacy endpoints after one year of treatment. Perhaps the clinical benefit to patients is so clear that they believe approval will be granted without having two years of data.


Of course, this is just my speculation, but the way I'm thinking about this is that if the Antegren data in MS was marginal at this time, there would be no way management would be taking the risk of filing early before the trials were complete. The hit to the companies' reputations and the class-action suits they would surely be slapped with would make filing without absolutely compelling data incredibly unwise. That means that shareholders in both companies likely have legitimate reasons to celebrate.


The Fool's Biotechnology discussion board is always hopping with interesting conversation. Check it out, on us, for 30 days.


Fool contributor Charly Travers does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this article.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Legal Information. ©1995-2004 The Motley Fool. All rights reserved.

[spikefader]

covering
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_May26.jpg
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_cover.jpg

[kingofthehill]

this was written buy Morgan Stanley research before the filing for MS


STOCK RATING OVERWEIGHT–V
Price (May 21, 2004) $21.57
Price Target $30
52-Week Range $24.75 - 4.05
Stock ratings are relative to the analyst's industry (or
industry team's) coverage universe.
GICS SECTOR HEALTH CARE
US Strategist Weight 15.3%
S&P 500 Weight 13.8%
• We are more bullish on Antegren for Crohn's following our trip to DDW 2004
We now believe the Crohn's opportunity is probably at least $500M to
$1B. Our bullishness hinges on the successful completion of one
additional Phase III confirmatory trial which is just starting. Hence,
we choose to wait for positive data before changing our numbers.

• We include our top 10 takeways from physician interviews at DDW
Most importantly, we believe the Crohn's market is on the verge of a
dramatic expansion driven by new biological products. Remicade is a
large product but because it was launched with only short-term data,
many patients were treated for the short term and developed
antibodies. Hence, we believe Remicade doesn't reflect the true
potential of this market.
• Our Elan investment thesis remains fourfold
(1) Antegren is more valuable than expectations, (2) successful
restructuring of balance sheet resulting in less financial risk, (3) legal
risks diminish without material harm to the company, and (4) new
management has the skill set to build an integrated pharma/biotech
company.
• We maintain our In-Line view of the Specialty Pharma industry
We believe that on a mkt-cap weighted basis, our coverage universe
will perform in line with the S&P 500. We believe 2004 will be a year
of investment with limited upside to earnings expectations and few
new products that will significantly outperform.

[kingofthehill]

hey spike what is your chart saying.. any diamonds in loose soil yet !

[spikefader]

hey spike what is your chart saying.. any diamonds in loose soil yet !
http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_May_27.jpg

[spikefader]

intraday:

while making this chart up, price just dropped back to the pivot - might be worth a long 22.86 (ask) right now, right here :D good stop is below lod.

http://img47.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELN_intra.jpg

[Michaelk005]

Hey spike, On this recent chart of ELN, if my count is right I have it in a C wave corection, head and shoulder form,, you agree?

[spikefader]

Hey spike, On this recent chart of ELN, if my count is right I have it in a C wave corection, head and shoulder form,, you agree?If you mean on the daily, with the move from Feb a bullflag, then 5 waves, an abc, inverted shs?
OR you mean the SHS is regular and R shoulder has formed?

[Michaelk005]

5 wave a,b,c correction..

[spikefader]

5 wave a,b,c correction..yes

[kingofthehill]

the story of Elan just keeps getting better and better

2004-06-01
Drug offers new option for Crohn's disease

Canadian-led study shows natalizumab is safe and effective

A Canadian doctor says an experimental drug called natalizumab will help in the fight against Crohn's disease, a chronic condition in which the body's own immune system mistakenly attacks the intestines.

The Crohn's and Colitis Foundation of Canada estimates 150,000 Canadian men and women suffer from Crohn's and other forms of inflammatory bowel disease, which causes abdominal pain, diarrhea and other symptoms.

Natalizumab (brand name Antegren) blocks immune cells from leaving the bloodstream and prevents them from migrating into chronically inflamed tissue.

A Canadian-led study shows the drug is safe and effective compared with inactive (placebo) treatment.

"This drug will be a welcome addition to our armamentarium for the treatment of Crohn's disease. It's important to note the safety profile of the drug is exceedingly acceptable and well tolerated, and this was a very successful clinical trial," says Dr. Brian Feagan, a professor of medicine and epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Western Ontario in London, Ont.

The study involved 339 adults with Crohn's disease whose symptoms had significantly decreased or almost disappeared after treatment with natalizumab in a previous trial.

They were randomly assigned to receive up to 12 additional infusions of natalizumab or placebo.

After six months, 44 to 61 per cent of the natalizumab-treated patients continued to have significantly decreased or nearly absent symptoms, compared with 26 to 29 per cent of the patients who received placebo.

In addition, the researchers found no notable differences in the rates of adverse events between the two treatment groups.

"Our current therapies (for Crohn's disease) are associated with opportunistic infections ... (but) there was no evidence that (natalizumab) therapy was associated with significant infections," Feagan says.

[kingofthehill]

From the front page of Todays Morgan Stanley report on Elan's 50/50 partner Biogen :

"Street underestimates Antegren profit contribution.
While Antegren´s significant potential is widely accepted, we believe the Street is underestimating its bottom-line contribution and potential in areas outside of MS, while overestimating the threat to the bottom-line from Avonex erosion. We estimate worldwide peak sales of Antegren of >$3billion and expect a strong launch in early 2005

[kingofthehill]

Elan filed for MS drug in Europe today ...and the good news continues


WE ARE JUST STARTING TO LIGHT THE FUSE ON THIS 5 YEAR PROJECT!!

ALZHEIMERS VACCINE...IF THEY DO GET THIS ITS LIKE THE DISCOVERY OF FIRE!

June 4, 2004 WYE/ELN's Alzheimer's Vaccine Program
Generating Renewed Interest

Conclusion: We hosted a conference call yesteday with one of our Alzheimer's clinical consultants. The focus of the call was new data for Wyeth and Elan's Alzheimer's vaccine program, which Wyeth management highlighted at their analyst meeting on Wednesday. We drew the following conclusions from our discussion: (1) the one-year follow-up analysis of Wyeth/Elan's terminated AN-1792 Phase II trial provides important clinical evidence of the correlation between beta-amyloid levels and cognitive function; (2) Wyeth/Elan's immunotherapy programs are the most promising disease modifying approaches, although a commercial product remains 4-5 years away; (3) agents which slow beta amyloid aggregation are potentially viable, but not likely as effective as a vaccine; (4) the beta and gamma secretase inhibitors in development continue to disappoint; (5) statins may gain broader use as prophylactic treatment for AD; and (6) use of Forest's Namenda is expanding from moderate-to-severe AD patients into the mild-to-moderate population, which may drive a second leg of growth.

_ WYE/ELN's AN-1792 Follow-Up Data Generating Renewed Buzz. Our clinical consultants recently have been more bullish on prospects for the Alzheimer's vaccine program, based on a new follow-up analysis of the terminated Phase II trial for the first generation vaccine candidate, AN-1792. These data, which will be presented in full next month, indicated that patients achieving a high antibody response to the A-beta peptide showed a lower rate of memory loss over the one year. Wyeth/Elan have an MAb in Phase I and plan to take a 2nd generation peptide to Phase I in early-2005

[New-born baby]

King,

I am posting here because you've been too quiet too long. What's the news on ELN? I look for your post here every day, but it has been nearly a month since you've said anything. Please inform us of the news.

Thank you and the best investing to you always,

[kingofthehill]

sorry guys for not posting sooner, i could not find this site to save my life... my thinkpad crashed with ALL my bookmarks...i was adding a s each time

mrmarketsishuge.com

and google comes up with nothing...anyway here we go ..

all is well ..infact VERY WELL.. the only worry right now is Priority review for ELN ( and thats a worry for options players only).. if we get it in the next 3 weeks ..a nice pop up ..otherwise guys will short it the stock will move up in late July otherwise .. also


JP MORGAN SAYS ...ANTEGREN IS THE NEXT BLOCKBUSTER DRUG! 6/21/04

ELAN WILL MAKE A BIG SPLASH AT THE ALZHEIMER'S CONFERENCE IN PHILLY JULY TH ...HUGE HUGE HUGE....


ANTEGREN WILL OUTSELL ALL MS DRUGS COMBINED .. THATS A BIG STATEMENT AND I WILL STAND BY IT ... OCT. 7TH THEY WILL ANNOUNCE THE DATA IN VIENNA AUSTIRA... HUGE NEWS... NBC NIGHTLY NEWS NEWS.. WE HAVE BEEN TOLD..

THE BEST SITE FOR ALL INFO ON ELAN IS

WWW.TIXX.COM/ELAN.HTM

WWW.ELAN.COM


LA TIMES STORY ON THE HUGE PLANT BEING BUILT FOR ANTEGREN!!!!

http://www.tixx.com/biotech_factory.htm

ASK ANY QUESTION I WILL CHECKIN 3 TIMES A DAY ..

[kingofthehill]

QUOTES FROM Annual meeting transcript.... LAST WEEK

"It will be published in October, but through the actions by the FDA, we clearly suggest this drug will be more than exceptional".

"
Concerning the Alzheimer programs, we always have to remember that that is the core of our scientific effort. That is the cure of Alzheimer's disease is the reason for being for us as a company. Antegren was actually a spin-off of the Alzheimer programs"

SEC..."They have just finalized all of their analysis and sometime over the next month we would hope to be in dialogue with them. Again, it's not our time table, it's theirs, and we are working with them as closely as we can to make sure we can get to the point we can actually have substantive discussion" But, as I said earlier we are very hopeful that a resolution will come in the relatively near future.

Doctor on Antegren..."About 40% of the people that I treat now have abandoned these drugs and are desperately waiting for Antegren"

"Our discussions with the FDA and Lars can articulate later, I think could be classified as quite unique. Because the FDA, their responsibility ultimately, is to bring safe and breakthrough products to the marketplace. Hence the filing of the data with filing of MS, and filing of MS with one year data, which had never been done before".

"That was a decision that was not an Elan or Biogen decision; it was an Elan, Biogen, and FDA decision"

WWW.TIXX.COM/ELAN.HTM

[jiesen]

mrmarketsishuge.com

and google comes up with nothing...anyway here we go ..



maybe it was because you misspelled 'mrmarket'! (it's not 'mrmarkets')

:)

good luck with ELN. looking good so far...

[kingofthehill]

from the AGM in Dublin last week

Kelly Martin is the CEO of Elan

Kelly Martins words below were the key words on antegren.

Our discussions with the FDA and Lars can articulate later, I think could be classified as quite unique. Because the FDA, their responsibility ultimately, is to bring safe and breakthrough products to the marketplace. Hence the filing of the data with filing of MS, and filing of MS with one year data, which had never been done before. That was a decision that was not an Elan or Biogen decision; it was an Elan, Biogen, and FDA decision.


www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[Michaelk005]

Hey King, whats your thoughts on the FDA's upcoming approval of this new ELN drug? I do not honestly see a reason why they wouldnt let it out on the market but I'm wondering your thoughts. If this announcement goes all well, we could easilly see a 3$ price move.

[Websman]

King, I'm sure you've already posted it, but when is the potential approval slated for?

I definitely want to get in before the big news.

[stocks54]

Greeting kingofthehill,

Eagerly waiting for ELN's Fast Track approval. Do you for see any other stock which might have potential like ELN (I remember you made great call for OSIP)

Regards,

[jiesen]

LJPC is one to look into if you want a good pre-approval play.

[stocks54]

Thanks jiesen,

I will check LJPC.

Regards,

[kingofthehill]

Priority review could come this week till July 25th

here is a great Forbes article from Friday

http://www.forbes.com/markets/2004/06/25/0625automarketscan07.html?partner=yahoo&referrer=



also ... hold on to your chair while you read this article about Elan's Alzhiemers program

Some observers presume the results are at least encouraging, because Elan has continued to pursue the protein theory in creating new experimental vaccines.

Selkoe said he doubts the study results will be a "slam dunk" proving his theory; but expects it will show a measure of improvement.
And that, he said, would be a big deal in terms of trying to find a vaccine or cure.
"Obviously, in the Alzheimer's field, we're grasping at straws." he said.

He said he also expects other reports scheduled to be given at the conference to bolster his amyloid protein theory.

Meanwhile, Elan and other companies are working on other vaccines. Elan started enrolling patients last fall for a new study involving an improved vaccine that should not have the brain swelling side effects. Selkoe performed research that helped in tackling that side effect problem.

The previous vaccine was a tiny dose of the actual protein, and the intent was for the patient's body to create immune system antibodies that would consume the protein everywhere it occurred. However, the immune system reaction was so strong in some patients that it caused the brain swelling.

The new vaccine contains a tiny does of the antibodies, pre-made in the laboratories. Vaccine that use antibodies tend to be safer, but also weaker Selkoe said. The Fedral Food and Drug Administration is still reviewing the new vaccine's safety. Selcoe said it will probably be about 18 months before there are any test results.

Elan and other companies are also working on drugs that would block the body's ability to create amyloid proteins in the first place.

All of this contributes to Selkoe's upbeat opinion of the state of Alzheimer's research. "My viwe of that is optimistic" he said. But, he added even in the best case scenarios, it's easily three to four years to anything real" in terms of vaccines.

Since Alzheimer's began receiving major scientific attention in the 1980s, many rumors have flown about ways to avoid it, ranging from eating fish to not using aluminum containing deodorants.

"I can't recommend a diet ..... that would protect anyone from Alzeheimer's" said Selkoe. " When you look at environmental causes, there's precious little scientific data."

He noted the disease occurs around the world in roughly equivalent rates. The Japanese, who eat far more fish than Americns do, have a similar Alzheimer's rate. And you can still use your deodorant; " Aluminum for sure is not likely to be important." Selkoe said.

One thing that is clear to researchers, Selkoe said, is a genetic component to the disease.
"I always tell lay audiences - Choose your parents carefully" Selkoe joked. More seriously, he noted that having a genetic predisposition for Alzheimers doesn't automatically mean someone will contract it.

END of Full Article

i will get the link posted to the full story..

[kingofthehill]

RING THE BELL BOYS WE HAVE A WINNER

FDA Designates Antegren Biologics License Application for Priority Review as a Treatment for Multiple Sclerosis
Monday June 28, 2:30 am ET
Application Under Accelerated Approval Guidelines


CAMBRIDGE, Mass. & SAN DIEGO & DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 28, 2004--Biogen Idec and Elan Corporation, plc announced today that the Biologics License Application (BLA) for ANTEGREN® (natalizumab) has been designated for Priority Review and Accelerated Approval by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the treatment of multiple sclerosis (MS). The next step in the process is action by the FDA on formal acceptance of the application, which occurs within 60 days of submission.
ADVERTISEMENT


The FDA grants Priority Review status to products that are considered to be potentially significant therapeutic advancements over existing therapies that address an unmet medical need. Based on the FDA's designation of Priority Review for natalizumab in MS, the companies anticipate action by the Agency approximately six months from the submission date, rather than 10 months for a standard review. On May 25, 2004, the companies announced they had previously submitted the BLA for the approval of natalizumab for MS.

"We are pleased that the FDA has designated natalizumab for Priority Review," said Burt Adelman, MD, executive vice president, Development, Biogen Idec. "We look forward to continuing to work with the FDA throughout the review process to provide this potential new therapeutic to patients with MS."

"The Priority Review designation underscores the significant unmet medical need in the area of MS," said Lars Ekman, MD, executive vice president and president, Research & Development, Elan. "We believe natalizumab will offer a new approach to treating MS and will bring hope to patients living with this disease."

The BLA for natalizumab is being evaluated by the FDA under Accelerated Approval guidelines. This review will be based on one-year data from two ongoing Phase III trials. The companies are committed to completing these two-year trials. In order to protect the integrity of the trials, the companies are not disclosing the one-year data at this time.

MS is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that affects approximately 400,000 people in North America and approximately one million people worldwide. It is a disease that affects more women than men, with onset typically between 20 and 40 years of age. Symptoms of MS may include vision problems, loss of balance, numbness, difficulty walking and paralysis.

About the MS Clinical Trials for ANTEGREN

[rbcbarid]

high 25.45 today

king is huge !

[kingofthehill]

this is just the start, we still have the ALZ conference in 2 weeks ELN will annnounce big news in ALZHEIMERS

read the story at www.tixx.com/elan.htm

also S&P rating will improve this week, Elan will pay off some scheduled debt

good luck to all the drug should get approval mid October!

[kingofthehill]

my guess is We will go above $25.00 today insiders were buyers today as thye excersied thier optiona and held the stock .

couple of new stories in the Boston Globe you can get the link here

www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[kingofthehill]

Biogen Idec/Elan: Antegren could shake up MS treatment market

The FDA has granted priority review status to Biogen Idec/Elan's MS drug Antegren.

June 30, 2004 5:38 PM GMT (Datamonitor) - The prospect of faster FDA approval for Antegren is certainly good news for Elan [ELN] and Biogen Idec [BIIB], and confirms its potential to become the next big thing in the multiple sclerosis market. Competing companies will now face even more pressure in an already crowded marketplace.


The FDA's decision to grant priority review status to the multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Antegren means it will now give a response to the new drug application (NDA) within six months of its date of submission, as opposed to the usual timeframe of ten months.

As well as moving Antegren's US launch date forward by four months, this decision by the FDA reflects its initial opinion that Antegren could address unmet medical needs and offer MS patients significant benefits over existing therapies. This is reinforced by the fact that Elan had filed an earlier than expected NDA based upon positive one-year interim results of two Phase III studies.

Five drugs currently serve the MS market, which was worth $2.8 billion in 2003. Avonex, also developed by Biogen Idec, is the market leader and one of three beta interferon products on the market along with Chiron/Schering AG's Betaseron/Betaferon and Serono/Pfizer's Rebif. Teva's Copaxone (glatiramer acetate) was the first non-interferon to be launched and it now holds the second largest market share. Serono's Novantrone (mitoxantrone) is the fifth MS therapy.

Antegren, a humanized monoclonal antibody, potentially offers superior efficacy, combined with a more convenient once-monthly dosage regime. In addition to use as a monotherapy, Antegren is being investigated in combination with Avonex - a potentially highly lucrative opportunity for Biogen Idec. Datamonitor forecasts that Antegren will reach blockbuster status in 2010.

Commercial success for Antegren would provide a much-needed lift for Elan and confirm Biogen Idec's leading position in MS. Companies with older competing products could find that their sales are hit hard by this new competition. According to Reuters, the US market share of Chiron/Schering's Betaseron has already fallen to just above 18%, down from 20.4% in the last quarter of 2003, due to uptake of Rebif and Copaxone. Teva's Copaxone is also likely to suffer, as it could lose its status as the number one non-interferon therapy.

[kingofthehill]

more good news to report, the stock is up 3% in London today, also alot of insiders had options that expired yesterday..everyone held the stock instead of just exercising the option and flipping the stock..this is great to see..also Dick Thornburg is on the Board of Directors of Elan He would not be here still if Elan had any problems with the SEC...when this matter is finally put to bed look for an honest 10% jump in price

my guess is the sec issue is solved within 4 weeks

here is a link to the insiders BUYS

http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/index?company=ELA


We should have a new report from Morgan Stanley soon

[kingofthehill]

Elan & Alzheimer's disease article


Dr Selkoe seldom speaks to lay audiences. He makes exception for Jamaica Plain entities since he lives here.

We are sitting on an exclusive that has not seen much distribution.

What is news in the article -which was published about 3 weeks before the Philly conf. First, Dr Selkoe ( of Elan) was the originator of the beta amyloid theory. Second the vaccine invented by Dale Shenck has been used to test the theory. Third, the patients that have been vaccinated have been followed AND tested by Elan since the last vaccination. Fourth, the results of those tests will be made public in Philadelphia. Fifth, DR Selkoe originator of theory and still a director of Elan has told the press -The Jamaica Plain Gazette in an EXCLUSIVE interview- that he "expects the results to be positive". Sixth, Dr. Selkoe labeled this " a big deal" for alzheimer research and science

this is a very small Boston weekly newspaper in the Doctors hometown ..A MUST READ http://www.tixx.com/alzbos.htm

TAKE A LOOK

[kingofthehill]

Biogen's Mullen Sees Antegren Gaining 40%-50% of MS Market
July 7, 2004 06:47 EDT -- Biogen Idec Inc., the third-biggest U.S. biotechnology company, may gain as much as 40 percent to 50 percent of the multiple sclerosis market with Antegren, the drug it is developing with Irish partner Elan Corp.

We will hear big news from ELan next week on their Alzheimer’s Disease
programs take a look

http://www.elan.com/icadrd/


another big date will be when the Antegren filing is formally accepted ..date is now till July 25th

a real nice option to buy is Jan 05

[kingofthehill]

good time to buy if your out right now....

we should see some postive news in the next 2 weeks from Elan, the focus right now is

SEC settlement
FDA news by July 25th !
and an Alhiemer's disease announcement

Elan Announces Webcast of Data from Its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Programme to Be Presented at the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease
Wednesday July 7, 9:01 am ET

DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 7, 2004--Elan Corporation, plc today announced that it will host a discussion of the data from its Alzheimer's Immunotherapy Programme to be presented at the 9th International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia during the oral presentation session on Wednesday, July 21, 2004 at 3.00 p.m. Eastern Time. Following the session, Elan and its collaborator in the immunotherapeutics programme, Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, will host a discussion of the data at 5.15 p.m. Eastern Time, 10.15 p.m. British Summer Time with the media and the investment community.

This event will be webcast live and can be accessed by visiting Elan's website at www.elan.com and clicking on the Investor Relations section, then on the event icon. Following the live webcast, an archived version of the call will be available at the same URL.

[kingofthehill]

Elan Corporation ($24.23) 13th July 2004


Recovery Becomes Expansion: Price Target $45 Buy





Rationale for Investing in Elan:



· Elan is still being undervalued: Our Sum of The Parts model prices Elan at $45. In addition, Elan sits on a price to sales ratio of 12.5x a massive discount to other loss-making biotechs that on average enjoy a price to sales ratio of 98x. Elan is being priced more like profitable biotechs that average price to sales ratios of 11x. This is out of synch with the proximity to market of Antegren and the depth of Elan’s Alzheimers Disease pipeline.



· The Elan sponsored Ninth Annual Conference on Alzheimers Disease (AD) in July 2004 offers a focal point for the broader Investment community to become re-acquainted with promising drugs in Elan’s AD franchise.



· Strategic shift from recovery/contraction to expansion/growth.



· Securities and Exchanges Commision (SEC) resolution of investigation is expected in Q3 2004.

Investment Summary
Our view remains that Elan is not being fully valued by the equity market. The legacy of a brush with default and restructuring in 2002/03 are preventing equity investors from assigning full worth to Antegren. Our view is that based on the dynamics of the MS market, Antegren can generate sales of $4bn by 2008, suggesting Elan’s 50% can generate $2bn in sales. Therefore according to our Sum of Parts analysis Elan should have a stock price in excess of $45. In addition, equity investors currently assign little value to Elan’s leading Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research. The Elan sponsored Ninth International Conference on AD should remind the marketplace that Elan will have four AD treatments entering clinical trials over a two and a half year period. If the investment community begins to ascribe more value to Elan’s AD franchise, its share price could see an even more substantial re-rating.


VERY CONSERVATIVE ,WEALTH INVESTOR BROKERAGE IN IRELAND.. they would not come out this strong with having done thier homework..

great news...

[kingofthehill]

Bloxhams: $45 (07/13/2004: Recovery Becomes Expansion, not time frame given)

NCB: $31.5 within 9 to 12 months (6/28/04: up from 26)

Deutsche Securities: $31 (6/28/04: up from 26)

Goodbody: $30 within 12 months (6/28/04)

Morgan Stanley: $30 (04/24/04 reiterated, original 3/23/04: 12-18 mo. target)

ThinkEquity: $30 (05/19/04, up from $28)

Investec: $30 (Date: ?? “Elan was rated new ‘buy’ in new coverage by analyst Scott H. Fullman at Investec. The 12-month price target is $30 per ADR”.

Davy’s: $28.00 (7/8/2004. On 7/2/2004 Powershares posted an unofficial target of $30.)

ING: 24.85 (4/5/2004: initiates buy (from sell), “…sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons.” [Assumes 50% of upside case])

AGEdwards: $24.00 (6/28/04 downgraded from buy to hold, underwater by $0.39 as of this writing. 02/19/04 from hold to buy with target of $18 (the day after the Antegren announcement – Brilliant! – the stock closed at 13.33 this day, The stock had risen $5.18 since AGE’s last announcement). 01/08/04 upgraded from sell to hold (The stock closed at $8.15 on this day, after the stock had risen $7.12 from its low of $1.03). One thing you can say about AGE, their hindsight is better than 20/20.

Lehman: $20.00 (06/29/04 reiterates $20, which is $4.39 underwater as of this writing), last announcement was 03/24/04 when the stock closed at $19.29, $8.29 above their previous target of 11 and just $0.71 less than their new target. Jeeeeeeezzzze! Talk about being slow on the trigger! When it hits $29.99, maybe they will raise the target to $30 like everyone else, who will already be forecasting $40).

Average: $29.49

[kingofthehill]

$25.32 we are kicking ass today ....

Elan and Wyeth awarded three patents (ELN) 24.54: Elan and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals (WYE) announce that the US Patent Office recently issued Neuralab Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of Elan, three patents for the cos' joint research on immunotherapeutic approaches to the treatment of Alzheimer's disease

[kingofthehill]

http://www.irishexaminer.com/pport/web/Full_Story/did-sgEKl0YV4mDyksg7OWirIStPSk .asp15/07/04
Elan hugely undervalued, says Bloxham

By Conor Keane, Business Correspondent
BLOXHAM Stockbrokers believe Elan is still massively undervalued and has set a $45 price target for the share, up 86% on the €24.23 price range the shares have been trading.

In a note to clients, Bloxham analyst Peter Jackson said: "Our Sum of The Parts model prices Elan at $45. In addition, Elan sits on a price to sales ratio of 12.5x, a massive discount to other lossmaking biotechs that on average enjoy a price to sales ratio of 98x.

"Elan is being priced more like profitable biotechs that average price to sales ratios of 11x. This is out of synch with the proximity to market of Antegren and the depth of Elan's Alzheimers Disease pipeline."

Mr Jackson argued the legacy of a brush with default and restructuring in 2002/03 is preventing equity investors from assigning full worth to Antegren.

"Our view is that based on the dynamics of the MS market, Antegren can generate sales of $4bn by 2008, suggesting Elan's 50% can generate $2bn in sales.

"In addition, equity investors currently assign little value to Elan's leading Alzheimer's Disease (AD) research.... If the investment community begins to ascribe more value to Elan's AD franchise, its share price could see an even more substantial re-rating," he added.

Mr Jackson said that by granting a priority review for Antegren for MS the Food and Drug Administration has removed any uncertainties that the US regulator is not supportive of Elan's novel therapy.

"Our contention is that just as investors underestimated the likelihood that Antegren would receive early approval, they are also low-balling the total market size for a new MS treatment," he added.

Mr Jackson acknowledged uncertainty about the US Securities and Exchange Commission continues to drag on Elan's share price.

"Uncertainty will be removed, even if Elan, under a worst case scenario is hit with a negative ruling from the SEC....The SEC is mandated to protect investors, it will be well aware of Elan's finances and therefore any fine will be of a token nature," he added.

Meanwhile, Elan and Wyeth said the US Patent and Trademark Office recently issued three patents for the companies' joint research on immunotherapeutic approaches to the treatment of Alzheimer's disease.

[kingofthehill]

TRADING TODAY AS HIGH AS $25.90 !

Elan & Wyeth have a press conference 7/21/04 !
more good news this week

[kingofthehill]

COMPANIES UK & IRELAND: Alzheimer tests hold key for Elan's future
By John Murray Brown
Financial Times; Jul 20, 2004



Elan's return to health will be markedtomorrow when the Ireland-based pharmaceuticals company, which came close to collapse two years ago, presents the test results of its pioneering Alzheimer's treatment to an international conference on the brain disease.

The World Alzheimer's Congress in Philadelphia will be the first time Elan has disclosed the results of trials of its AN1792 product, a treatment it was forced to withdraw when a small number of patients developed side effects.

That was a significant blow to Elan's ambitions. But the company hopes to dispel some investor concerns surrounding what is just one of the four different Alzheimer's compounds it is developing in collaboration with Wyeth, the US drugs company.

Just to be presenting at what is the main annual brainstorming of neurologists - let alone co-sponsoring the event - is a measure of Elan's recovery.

Kelly Martin, chief executive, says industry colleagues were "amazed" when Elan volunteered to sponsor the meeting.

"But even in the middle of all the turmoil, we knew that this is why we are here as a company. We want to be a significant part of the ultimate response to a terrible disease which currently has no cures," he says.

Last summer the sale of two of its drugs to King Pharmaceuticals, the centrepiece of Elan's recovery plan, looked in doubt. The company was also having difficulties finalising with its auditors its 20-F, the financial statement it is required to file with the US stock exchange authorities.

Mr Martin believes the crisis at Elan was always over the business structures surrounding the science, not the science itself, which he maintains was "always thought of as very good".

Mr Martin was recruited after the old board was forced out in the wake of revelations that the US Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating its accounts. He says the company he took over was overly complex, organisationally and financially. "We wanted to unwind that complexity," he says.

Peter Frawley, pharmaceuticals analyst with Merrion Stockbrokers in Dublin, says: "The old Elan would have had three different salesforces, none of whom talked to each other, and two separate research and development arms, again with no communication.

"Kelly Martin tightened the chain of command and started to address the legal and regulatory risks surrounding the company, while ensuring he had enough resources to fund the research pipeline."

Mr Martin's first priority was to keep the creditors at bay, selling about $1.5bn (£1bn) of assets and raising another $500m through an equity and convertible debt issue.

A big break came earlier this year, when the US Food and Drug Administration announced Elan would only have to submit one year's trial data for Antegren, the company's multiple sclerosis product, and not two as normally required.

"That was not unprecedented but it was unusual," said Ian Hunter, pharmaceuticals analyst with Goodbody Stockbrokers in Dublin.

The SEC has still to announce its verdict. But in May, Mr Martin told the annual meeting that authorities had completed interviews with company officials, and predicted the issue would be resolved by the start of the fourth quarter. Brokers anticipate in the worst case the company could face a small fine. In such a scenario, it is likely the class actions taken by disgruntled investors will also be dropped.
All of this good news has helped push up the share price, which at about $25 has recovered half the ground lost since early 2002 when it fell as low as $2 a share.

Elan is still not making a profit. But Mr Martin says unlike many biotechnology companies, it is not in danger of running out of cash.

The company has about $850m on its balance sheet, with another $300m in investments, including a small stake in Warner Chilcott.

About $390m of debt matures in February and March next year. But Mr Martin says: "We feel very comfortable where we are and we think we have the resources to make sure that Antegren is positioned the right way."

Antegren is being developed in a joint venture with Biogen, which unlike Elan has a good record of bringing products to market.

The MS market is worth about $3.6bn a year. Brokers believe Antegren could double the size. Separately, Elan is seeking European approval as a treatment for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

Mr Frawley at Merrion estimates Elan could be worth $25 to $29 a share - without any value being put on its Alzheimer's programme. He says even a modest breakthrough with its Alzheimer's research could lift the valuation to more than $50.

Indeed some analysts believe the only serious concern facing the company is the possibility Mr Martin, a "turnround" specialist, might be headhunted to take on another challenge.

Not surprisingly he is anxious to quash any such speculation.

[kingofthehill]

CBS NEWS: positive on Elan ALZ vaccine


http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/21/health/main631095.shtml

[evilarya]

why is it down 3.7 percent today and 4.5 in after hours?

[IIC]

why is it down 3.7 percent today and 4.5 in after hours?

IMO...Investors expected a little more than a terminated study which will go nowhere...Have to read it a couple times...at first it sounds good...but...

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/040721/215727_1.html

[kingofthehill]

just a blip on the screen, everything is fine they want your shares just hold tight.

lots of great press today for Elan take a look

http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[evilarya]

Elan Pharmaceuticals might have expected to party like it's 1999 when it was a highflier. Lofty expectations for its multiple sclerosis drug Antegren, to be co-marketed with Biogen Idec, have caused shares to quadruple this year.

But the company, which sports an $8.4 billion market cap, got a 7% haircut today as investors expressed their disappointment in the Dublin, Ireland-based firm. Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) had scheduled a press briefing on data it was presenting at a major Alzheimer's conference. Investors apparently expected information about a new anti-Alzheimer's antibody or a new version of an Alzheimer's vaccine that was pulled from clinical trials after it caused brain problems. Instead, they got new data about the old vaccine.

"I think people were assuming that the presentation would be about the new product," says Albert Rauch, an analyst at A.G. Edwards. Elan's original Alzheimer's vaccine, which aims to teach the body to destroy the plaques that appear in the brains of Alzheimer's patients, was much-hyped before side effects emerged and the company ran into a whole mess of problems. New data indicates the old vaccine did clear plaque--although whether the medicine actually stopped the deterioration of patients' minds is an open question.

Elan and partner Wyeth (nyse: WYE - news - people ) are working on two follow-ups to the original vaccine. One, in early stage human trials, involves injecting antibodies much like the ones the body created by the vaccine into patients. A second, not yet being tested in humans, is a new version of the original vaccine. Both are probably many years from the market. Data from the old trials don't mean that new problems couldn't emerge with these still untested treatments. "The proof of concept isn't there," says Rauch. "It didn't disprove it, but it didn't prove it either."

Elan Chief Executive G. Kelly Martin has been cleaning up the company's accounting mess, but he's certainly not done. ThinkEquity analyst Deborah Knobelman says a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation could end this summer. She and Rauch both point out that Elan is a lot more likely to benefit from Antegren sales than Biogen-Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), which may have to cannibalize sales of its existing MS treatment Avonex to sell Antegren. Still Rauch recently downgraded Elan to 'hold' from 'buy,' saying not much upside was left. His bank or its officers may own options or futures of Elan.

Any thoughts.

[kingofthehill]

the drug should be approved by early October to Late November
We really have a winner here, just sit on your shares and you will make some nice money$$..something i cant say about my other holdings!

I see the stock at $30.00 before October

..todays news...
Reuters
UPDATE - Elan's Antegren drug gets FDA nod for review
Monday July 26, 3:40 am ET


(Adds background)
DUBLIN, July 26 (Reuters) - Irish drug maker Elan Corp (Irish:ELN.I - News) said on Monday its application for approval of multiple sclerosis drug Antegren had been formally accepted for review by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Antegren, which Elan has developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (NasdaqNM:BIIB - News), represents a new approach in the treatment of multiple sclerosis and is expected to eventually generate annual sales of more than $1 billion.

The U.S. regulator will now review the drug before deciding if it can go on sale. Antegren won priority status from the FDA last month, which means the medicine could be approved within six months rather than the standard 10 months review time.

The much-vaunted drug has given Elan a major boost after its stock collapsed by more than 90 percent in 2002 on fears about its liquidity.

Antegren is also being developed as a treatment for the bowel disorder Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

It is expected to hit the market by early 2005, some 18 months ahead of the original schedule.

Multiple sclerosis is a disease of the central nervous system which affects about 1 million people worldwide.

[carribean_mike]

Coast is clear for an ELN run - since I bailed today. Probably will regret it. :(

[New-born baby]

Dear Mike, :cry:

I have never regretted parachuting out of an airplane rapidly descending out of control to earth. Who knows if the pilot can right the ship? It doesn't look likely. Did you see the huge volume: 10 million shares! ELN normally does 1.7 million. That's a lot of rats jumping overboard! ELN may turn out to be an ESMC--from $25 to $8. Or an AA, from $39 to $28. Or an LWAY, from $26 to $9. All these stocks took their steep dive in a very few weeks. (AA dropped in only a few days). One thing is for sure: if ELN can turn it around, you can jump back in. And no doubt Spike will let you know that things look "bullish" again. Personally, I think you are going to rejoice that you didn't take a bigger beating by holding this stock.

I am sad tonight because my boss--a great guy-- just lost a few thousand on this stock because he wouldn't use trailing stops. He was up $4 per share; now it is a $2 loser. He also dropped a large chunk of change on ESMC and LWAY for the same reason. He let three dollar/share profits turn into $12+/share losers because he eschewed the trailing stop. The fact is: there is a time to dump a stock. And a trailing stop would have protected all the profits as well as the principle. I dumped this stock 2 months ago, and sold it short with Spike, and I don't regret it. I doubt very much that you will regret it now.

The best of investing to you, Mike, as well as all those on this board.

[kingofthehill]

Pfizer tried to kill the stock in the last 2 days, and a great short attck

I bought more options they are trading very well, sorry if you had to bail out ..buy and hold

[New-born baby]

King,

Please explain the short attack by Pfizer for us. I really would like your insight, as well as any proof that you might offer. I am not doubting your word, but just want to know.

Thank you,

[kingofthehill]

Funds that were short Elan from the great run up needed to cover. They
saw last weeks ALZ conference as an opportunity as soon as Elan did not announce an ALZ drug in phase III that very day, so they attacked the stock. PFE seeing weakness in Elan piled on with therr press release . The shorts have covered they are either long Elan now or are moving to another stock. When shorting funds leave a stock alone the price can quickly move up. That's what im looking for here.

Biogen being up 6% on Antegren news proves it was just an attack on a recovering company.

Buy and hold the stock, don't use margin on Elan .

Elan reports Thursday, look for the fighting Irish to answer the bullshit tossed by Pfizer

[kingofthehill]

Biogen , Elans partner is talking ANtegren today in their quarterly cc ..ALL THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT IS ANTEGREN...

taken from the yahoo message board on ELN

KEY POINTS:

1. antegren will expand and capture lion share of MS market
2. BIIB expects MS market to expand to 6 billion $US
3. avonex growing 20% year over year; avonex expanding 33% in Europe. BIIB has 40% of MS market now [my comment: despite avonex being only the 2nd best interferon product; so PFE can misrepresent competitior's products all day long and the BIIB sales force win on the field selling a SUPERIOR PRODUCT: ANTEGREN]
4. sales force for MS: expanding sales force and focused to optimize sales force to optimize sales of Antegren. =>>>BIIB will use entire current sales force in field for Antegren sales plus it is doubling its MS sales force <===[this I think is a departure from prior strategy with a greater focus on ramping up antegren sales]plus it will use ELN's hospital sales force

Will use ELN's hospital sales force too. Entire company convinced of antegren blockbuster capacity and focused on the early launch. antegren’s accelerated launch galvanized all aspects of our organization
5. Will announce pricing in October jointly with Elan at a CC. To preserve competitive advantage, not announcing some aspects of strategy.
6. Manufacturing: NC, Oceanside and Denmark but also working on increased productivity.
7. Mentioned Countermarketing by some competitiors, so not
8. Antegren will be a therapy for all patients with MS. Once a month therapy with antegren will be more appealing to patients then once a month plus combination with a interferon<==[it seems BIIB is more and more recognizing antegren is the sole horse to ride]
9. Crohns: end of year submit crohns approval package, but in US the additional induction study will be necessary to support FDA approval in US.
10. PFE comments: BIIB:
when antegren gets out the major chatter will be around data. PFE may get share of the "waiting room" as its sales force wait to see the Doctor but the data will speak for itself in the neuorologist's office. BIIB says this market is sensitive to information and the data will speak for itself.
11. MS patients: antegren post will continue...in 2nd post.

[Websman]

ELN seems to be holding around $20...

I'm wondering if now is a good time to get in...

What's the latest King???

[kingofthehill]

2 things with Elan ,

1. BUY AND HOLD
2. dont use margin on ELN

on the FDA front everything looks great
a great brief to read is this pdf file from the July

http://www.tixx.com/elanccjuly.pdf
price targets

Bloxhams: $45 (07/13/2004: Recovery Becomes Expansion, not time frame given)

NCB: $31.5 within 9 to 12 months (6/28/04: up from 26)

Goodbody: $$31.20 within 12 months (Reiterated 8/3/04)

Deutsche Securities: $31 (6/28/04: up from 26)

Morgan Stanley: $30 (04/24/04 reiterated, original 3/23/04: 12-18 mo. target. MS dropped coverage 07/30/04 for “policy” reasons, ie probably IB activities for Elan.)

ThinkEquity: $30 (05/19/04, up from $28)

Investec: $30 (Date: ?? “Elan was rated new ‘buy’ in new coverage by analyst Scott H. Fullman at Investec. The 12-month price target is $30 per ADR”.

Davy’s: $28.00 (7/8/2004. On 7/2/2004 Powershares posted an unofficial target of $30.)

ING: 24.85 (4/5/2004: initiates buy (from sell), “…sales could reach US$3.5bn, this assumes 17.5% of patients switching from use of interferons.” [Assumes 50% of upside case])

AGEdwards: $24.00 (6/28/04 downgraded from buy to hold. 02/19/04 from hold to buy with target of $18 (the day after the Antegren announcement. 01/08/04 upgraded from sell to hold. One thing you can say about AGE, their hindsight is better than 20/20.

Lehman: $20.00 (06/29/04 reiterates $20, last announcement was 03/24/04 when the stock closed at $19.29, $8.29 above their previous target of 11 and just $0.71 less than their new target.

Average: $29.59

[Karel]

2 things with Elan ,

1. BUY AND HOLD
2. dont use margin on ELN

on the FDA front everything looks great
a great brief to read is this pdf file from the July

[...]

Average: $29.59

Well, I wouldn't buy a used car from stock analysts, let alone an averaged used car :wink:

I like your point 2: nothing is certain here, and the current price reflects already a lot of expected earnings. Of course, a lot of people expect them, but a lot of people can be impressed by hot air too. I am Dutch; we still remember the tulip craze (well, not first hand).

There is an even safer play than 1: Buy and start taking money off the table when the stock starts to gain; and continue to take money of the table. And then don't buy the dips! Keep the $$$ amount invested constant, or sell out slowly, or let your position grow slowly; but continue to take money off the table. You don't want 30% of your INVESTING money in a stock like this. Not even 10%. 5%, or even less preferably. But who am I. It's your money.

Regards,

Karel

[Websman]

Down again today...

I think I'll stay out for now.

Maybe it'll run up soon.

Good luck

[New-born baby]

King,

Are you sure Antegren is a drug for helping MS patients? I mean, with this stock jumping all over the place, I think it is a drug to cause ulcers.

[spikefader]

Down again today...

I think I'll stay out for now.

Maybe it'll run up soon.

Good luck
King and readers, you'd be wise to consider this: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v145/spikefader/Trading/ELNtoday.jpg

Perhaps a hedging Put or two if you must hold it long.

[kingofthehill]

Thanks Spike, yes its been a rough few weeks,

Goldman Sachs comments today on BIIB that should be of interest to all!

Yesterday, we met with management of ELN, BIIB's partner on Antegren. We
learned that (a) PDUFA date for Antegren is 11/25/04, (b) over 1,600 patients have
been treated with Antegren for about 2 yrs. (c) ELN/BIIB will meet with the FDA in
August to discuss potential filing of Antegren for Crohn's disease (CD). We continue
to expect FDA approval and launch of Antegren for multiple sclerosis (MS) in late
04/early 05. We estimate the potential for MS and CD to be $1B ($0.60/share) and
$0.5B, respectively. We maintain BIIB as Outperform on earnings acceleration from
potential launch of Antegren and data from 4 Phase III trials (combined potential of
$2B) in 04/05. BIIB shares are at 34X our '05 EPS or PEG of 1.7 vs average 29X
and 1.4 PEG for the group. We expect the shares to continue to trade at a premium.
The risks are slower sales, development failures, manufacturing, reimbursement &
generics. Our coverage view is Neutral.

[kingofthehill]

Almost everyone is now in agreement that there are 2.5 million people with MS world-wide – and that just 1.05 over a million of these in Europe and the U.S. are suitable candidates for current MS therapies, including Antegren.

Most analysts indicate that current penetration levels are at about 27%, although the following statistics from Merrill Lynch indicate current penetration levels closer to 35%.

These are their numbers – which I assume are completely accurate. It shouldn’t be too difficult to produce these statistics.

357,000 patients are on current therapies in Europe and the U.S.
Just over 100,000 patients have dropped out of current treatment regimes.
Only about 140,000 patients are well controlled on existing therapies.
There are about 35,000+ newly diagnosed patients each year.

Current MS therapies are earning revenue around $4.2 billion, as demonstrated by the figures below.

“Global sales of Copaxone grew 28 percent to $226 million in the quarter, including $150 million in the United States.”
“Sales of Rebif® were up 29.2% (23.1% in local currencies) to $257.1m “
“AVONEX sales up 21% to $347 million, “
“Sales of Betaseron, Schering's top product, dropped 2 percent to 770 million euros ($932 million) last year. “ (Consolidated quarterly figures aren’t available for Betaseron.)

Annualised MS sales = $904 million + $1,028.4 million, $1,388 million + $932 million = $4.2524 billion.

These figures were almost the same for the previous quarter – so it certainly isn’t a once off! I previously posted the numbers for the 4th qtr ’03, which also came very close to $4 billion when annualised. In fact, trailing 12-month figures come in at about $4 billion.

The market is worth $4.2 billion today. It was worth $4 billion over the last twelve months.

Even the recent report from UCB, which was definitely biased against Elan and Antegren, has Antegren getting 50% of this market in just three years.

“In point of fact, when asked specifically about Product X use they indicated that they would use it in 26% of their patients after one year, 39% after two years and 50% after three years.”

The UCB report also indicates a price of $25k for Antegren per year.

50% of the penetrated market is 250,000 today – or about $6.5 billion annual revenue for Antegren. You should then add at least 50% of 35,000 each year for new patients.

Did they really say 27% of the market in year 1 and 50% in 3 years? Whatever about the price, I believe that Antegren can do better patient wise.

And there's nothing here for the CD, RA, or other indications.

Keep your eye on the ball!

copied from Yahoo..

[kingofthehill]

ROLL CALL ...is there anybody still long..

Elan rally pushes ISEQ higher

August 11, 2004 19:24
Shares in Athlone-based company Elan rallied to close almost 20% higher this evening in Dublin. The company said it knew of no reason for the surge, but analysts said that a lot of money was being pumped into drug stocks in the last few days.

Elan investors also appear more than happy with the company's pipeline prospects as it waits for US approval for its multiple sclerosis drug Antegren. That approval is due by the end of the year and Elan is banking on sales of over $1 billion dollars a year once the drug hits the shelves.

The shares closed €2.50 higher at €15.90 this evening, pushing the ISEQ index 76 points higher to 5,261.


Elan said last month that it remains focused on bringing Antegren - with which it will treat multiple sclerosis and Crohn's disease - to the market by next year. The drug is currently under review by the US Food and Drug Administration and a decision is expected from them by November.

It is expected to generate sales of over $1 billion a year for the company.

[kingofthehill]

By Danielle Kost
> Aug. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Fidelity Investments, the world's
> largest mutual fund company, increased stakes in Elan Corp. and
> Cisco Systems Inc. and cut those of Motorola Inc. and Texas
> Instruments Inc. during the second quarter.
> Boston-based Fidelity added 37.2 million American depositary
> receipts, each representing 1 share, of Elan, Ireland's biggest
> drugmaker, raising its position to 37.4 million shares from
> 200,000, according to a regulatory filing. The firm boosted its
> interest in Cisco, the world's top maker of computer-networking
> equipment, by 16 percent to 213.8 million shares.
>

[Michaelk005]

I remain long, I was in at $17, I expect $30 a share when drug hits shelves.

[MEA_1956]

I Must admit not a believer in the first but I'm a long until I Die.

The word Mountain is still in my thoughts every time I read your posts. Thanks Again. ===> MEA

[kingofthehill]

In today's issue of Barron's, columnist Alan Abelson speaks highly of Elan investor Larry Feinberg, but with respect to his holdings of Biogen-Idec and Boston Scientific. I sent the Barron's editors the following email:

Sirs:

Alan Abelson notes that Larry Feinberg, who runs Oracle Partners, has been “very hot on Biogen Idec and, as it turned out, right on target.” Barron’s, August 23, 2004.

I note that Mr. Feinberg’s most recent holdings statement, current as of June 30, 2004, shows Biogen Idec (BIIB) to be his third-largest position. His largest position is Elan Corporation, plc (ELN), BIIB’s 50/50 partner in the imminent MS blockbuster, Antegren. Together, these two companies, much of whose value can be attributed to Antegren, constitute an astounding 24% of Feinberg’s holdings, a level of concentration that suggests great confidence in Antegren’s pending approval (expected anytime from tomorrow through November) and projected peak annual sales in the $5 billion to $10 billion range.

Sincerely,
(LJD)


from Yahoo ELN board

[kingofthehill]

anyone left ??

[spikefader]

anyone left ??I take it you mean is anyone still long? Perhaps you're one of the stubborn ones still on board ......

[cbenj]

Kingofthehill,

Yes, I am still holding my shares of ELN. I bought most of my shares on January 5th at $7.13 based on your post. Thank you for making me aware of this opportunity. I have also added shares at various pullbacks, although I didn't add any shares during the latest pullback. In hind sight, guess I should have. I also appreciate your updates on the ELN status.

Thanks,
Ben

[kingofthehill]

GREAT NEWS TODAY
I just received the Morgan Stanley report on Elan, 17 page analysis. Headline is " Still bullish on Antegren" subheadline is "Resuming coverage on our favorite stock" . Rating still overweight and target $30.

[kingofthehill]

you can read a copy of the Morgan Stanley report at
www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[kingofthehill]

fast tracking of Antegren in Canada!!!!!!!!

For: Karisma Communications
Stock Symbol:
Exchange:
Contact: Melissa Cohen
Primary Phone: 416-663-1500 ext. 226

Date issued: September 7, 2004
Time in: 08:00 e


Attention: Assignment Editor, City Editor, Health/Medical Editor, News Editor


New Hope for Multiple Sclerosis Patients
Highly Anticipated MS Drug Given Priority Review by Health Canada


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Toronto, Canada, September 7 /PR Direct/ - There's exciting news for the 50,000 Canadians living with MS. A highly anticipated new treatment is one step closer to being available to Canadian patients. Health Canada has granted a priority review to AntegrenTM (natalizumab), the first in a new class of MS medications.

"For the first time in MS, Health Canada has agreed to give priority review to a treatment based on one-year trial data," says Dr. Paul O'Connor, neurologist and Director of the St. Michael's Hospital MS Clinic in Toronto, ON. "The 2001 Phase II results were very promising and demonstrated the ability of Antegren to reduce MRI activity and the number of MS disease relapses. We look forward to the final results of the pivotal Phase III AFFIRM and SENTINEL studies which have led to this accelerated review in Canada."

There are several criteria, which must be met, in order for a product to be accorded priority review status by Health Canada. For example, the drug must:
• provide a statistically significant and clinically relevant improvement in efficacy or safety over existing therapies on the Canadian market, such that the overall benefit/ risk profile is improved;
• be intended for patients suffering from a serious, life-threatening or severely debilitating condition;
• be indicated to treat, prevent or diagnose a serious symptom or manifestation of the condition.

The Phase III Antegren Studies
The AFFIRM (natalizumab safety and efficacy in relapsing-remitting MS) trial is a two year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double-blind study of approximately 900 patients designed to determine whether natalizumab is effective in slowing the rate of disability in MS and reducing the rate of clinical relapses when used as monotherapy.

The second trial, known as SENTINEL (safety and efficacy of natalizumab in combination with AVONEX(R) (interferon beta-1a) in patients with relapsing-remitting MS), is a two year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double blind study of approximately 1,200 patients. The SENTINEL trial, which is one of the largest conducted in MS, is designed to determine whether the treatment of MS with natalizumab in combination with AVONEX is more effective than AVONEX treatment alone in slowing the rate of disability in MS and in reducing the rate of clinical relapses.

"There is definitely a need for new types of therapies in the battle against MS and patients' response to natalizumab has been very encouraging. The other noteworthy attribute of Antegren is that it is administered as a intravenous infusion just once a month compared to the daily or thrice-weekly regimens of most current injectable MS therapies," added Dr. William McIlroy, national medical advisor for the Multiple Sclerosis Society of Canada

About ANTEGREN
Antegren, a humanized monoclonal antibody, is the first alpha-4 integrin antagonist in the new SAM (selective adhesion molecule) inhibitor class of MS therapies. The drug was designed to selectively inhibit impaired immune cells from leaving the bloodstream and to prevent these cells from migrating into chronically inflamed tissue as occurs in a variety of inflammatory diseases. To date, approximately 2,800 patients have received natalizumab in clinical studies.

Canada has one of the highest rates of MS in the world and multiple sclerosis is the most common neurological condition affecting young adults in Canada. MS most often strikes young adults - women and men between 20 and 40 who are in their productive family and career years.

-30-

TM Antegren is a trademark of Elan Pharmaceuticals


- END PRESS RELEASE - 9/7/2004


COMPANY: Karisma Communications
PROVINCE/STATE:
INDUSTRY: HEALTH
RELEASE ID: 200409030003

[Michaelk005]

I really apreciate all the new new info King, making following this stock an easy thing. My personall guess is that this stock will hit $26 before the announcement and 35 - 40 after its aproval. I'm going to buy another nice chunk when it goes to $22.80 or if it does, this is because if there is the poosibillity this doesnt get aproved a have a $2-3 dollar leeway.
Do you have a safety net in place incase of a non approval?

[kingofthehill]

Biogen Idec the world's 3rd largest Pharma, is Elan's partner. they are already building a plant in Denmark for production.

The FDA asked Elan & Biogen to fast track the drug..why ask the companies to come in early if your not going to approve..

also if Antegren gets delayed it will be a $10.00 drop in share price not 2-3 bucks


I am full steam ahead no puts or stop loss orders for me

puts would be a good idea


today news Elan is added to the FTSE 300

http://www.ftse.com/./tech_notices/2004/q3/09075_20040909_EUROPEAN_INDICES_REVIEW.jsp

[kingofthehill]

From the Sunday Tribune, Sept. 12, B8, Hermes commentary (no link):
ELAN REPLACES RYANAIR IN EUROTOP 300
FOLLOWING a quarterly review of its European, US and UK market indices, FTSE has dumped previous darling Ryanair from the Eurotop 300 Index and welcomed new love Elan into its arms.
The Eurotop 300, as the name suggests, tracks the performance of the continent's top 300 companies as classified by market capitalisation. Gaining entry represents quite a milestone for comeback kid Elan
Its shares are still high on the effects of a new drug application for Antegren, the potential blockbuster drug for treating MS. Elan shares are up over 230% this year and are currently trading at around €19.30, valuing the company at €7.4bn. Not bad for a business looking to make a €330m pre-tax loss this year and still under investigation by the US Securities and Exchanges Commission over alleged accounting irregularities.
Contrast Elan's fortunes of late with Ryanair, the company it passes out on its way into the Eurotop Index.
Ryanair stock is down 36% this year and remains sluggish, tranquillised by the twin darts of rising oil prices and heavy competition in the low fare airline sector. Investors can't overlook rising oil prices and are right to be concerned about competitive pressure on earnings, at least in the short term, a problem underlined by Ryanair's first ever profit warning to the market earlier this year.
Antegren promises much and if it gains approval, makes it to market and delivers the kind of sales many are predicting, it may yet make Elan shares look cheap, even at their current level.
Yet the market seems to find it easier to believe serial underachiever Elan can change its luck than to accept proven outperformer Ryanair will deliver on its promise to beat off the low fare upstarts. Go figure.
// This underlines that Elan will be bought by the European (or at least Irish) "growth" or "momentum" investors who used to favor companies like former darling Ryanair. I use Ryanair to get around cheaply, but the number of repeated low cost offers to fill seats suggest they are facing a difficult winter and Elan has to look better to this group of investors/portfolio managers

[kingofthehill]

NYSE:ELN
for the period from 09/10/2004 to 09/14/2004 gained 2 %
Now it would be useful to recall that our analysis of the trading flow detected the changes on the early stage of development and pointed to this possibility before the weight of evidence indicates:
09.07.04 Inflow Detected
Based on the results of 09.07.04 trading the price of the stock went up 1.17% and closed at $23.26. At the same time the number of shares traded in buyer-initiated trades exceeded the number of shares traded in seller-initiated trades by 93%. In this situation we assume that there was a significant Buyer interest in the security.

09.07.04 Unusually High Block to Retail Transaction Ratio Detected
Based on the results of 09.07.04 trading the price of the stock went up 1.17% and closed at $23.26. At the same time the number of shares traded in buyer-initiated trades exceeded the number of shares traded in seller-initiated trades by 93%, and 73% of the total volume were the large orders. In this situation we assume that there was a significant Buyer interest in the security and that the institutions were actively involved in the trading. Stocks with an unusually high block trade ratio are worth watching for future developments. Institutions are playing an important role in the stock market and a high block to retail transaction ratio is high for a reason.

[kingofthehill]

Study shows neurologists keen on Antegren

September 16, 2004 15:46
According to a study of neurologists by bankers Morgan Stanley, doctors are keen to adopt Elan's multiple sclerosis drug Antegren.

Morgan Stanley analysts said the survey of 105 high-prescribing US specialists in the disorder increased their confidence that Antegren would capture 30% of the market and reach global sales of $2 billion by 2008.

Antegren, which is expected to be launched next year, is a new class of drug for fighting MS and a key product for the fortunes of both Elan and its marketing partner Biogen. Antegren is administered as a monthly infusion, or drip, in the doctor's office. In Europe Antegren is not expected to be launched until 2006.


Morgan Stanley said the need for infusion equipment might limit use of the new product initially, since only 35% of neurologists surveyed had infusion capabilities, but the survey found 86% said this would only be a constraint for the first six months.

The bank estimated that the total US market for MS drugs would grow to $3.8 billion in 2010 from $1.8 billion last year with the EU market reaching $3 billion from $1.8 billion.

The new product will compete with existing treatments such as Biogen's established drug Avonex, Rebif from Serono, Betaferon from Schering and Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd's Copaxone.

[kingofthehill]

Competitors: Serono closed InterPharm because of Biogen's Antegren

Antegren is due to receive marketing approval in November.

Globes' correspondent 21 Sep 04 19:27

The closure of InterPharm Laboratories has instigated an assault by its competitors, led by Biogen Idec's (Nasdaq:BIIB) Israeli representative, Medison Pharma. Medison Pharma CEO Meir Jacobson said, "I'm an interested party, but analysts in the US also agree that the expected entry of Biogen's Antegren, which is due to receive marketing approval in November, was one of the key reasons for the deteriorating position of our competitors that produce treatments for multiple sclerosis."
Jacobson says Antegen was also one of the reasons for the recent decline in the share price of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (Nasdaq:TEVA; TASE:TEVA), the manufacturer of Copaxone. But Teva has many other drugs, including a generic version of Serono's (NYSE:SRA; SWX:SEO) Rebif.

Jacobson said, "The decision by Serono's management to close its plant in Israel is completely unrelated to it being an obsolescent plant, or recent developments and changes in biotechnology production practices, as its announcement in Switzerland claims."

Serono informed InterPharm's employees it had sufficient capacity in the medium term without the establishment of a new plant in Ness Ziona, planned for the same site.

Jacobson said, "If they had to continue large-scale production, and not confine Rebif production to Switzerland only, they could have continued production at the existing plant in Israel, which meets all international standards."

However, Jacobson added, "Since Rebif accounts for over half of Serono's sales, and the blow Serono comes from the US too, it was forced to reduce operations. We believe that Serono decided to close its Israeli plant because of pending significant developments in the multiple sclerosis market with the entry of Antegren by the end of the year. All studies indicate that Antegren will be a breakthrough in the treatment of multiple sclerosis thanks to its effectiveness and the way it is used."

Published by Globes [online] - www.globes.co.il - on September 21, 2004

[kingofthehill]

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B6B51D775%2DEE82%2D4849%2D88EF% 2DDAD8B2B6EE0A%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktw

Hartford fund likes Elan, . . .
By Barbara Kollmeyer, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Sept. 22, 2004

The manager of the Hartford International Capital Appreciation fund (HNCAX: news, chart, profile) invests without regard to country or benchmark allocations.

"We manage the fund globally and think about it on a global basis, with a huge emphasis on fundamental research," said Offit.

"We don't think the country matters," he added. "What's most critical to holdings is what's happening in the sector. What's not critical is the country they're located in. All the data, all the research, comes from the bottom-up stock workthat we do."

The fund manager looks to buy shares of industry leaders. "Our process starts with the universe of 1,000 names," he said. A team of analysts cover 95 percent of those companies, and visit more than 500 of them each year, he explained.

The fund's class-A shares rose 19 percent over the year through Sept. 20, beating the 13 percent gain for its international-fund rivals, according to investment research firm Lipper. Its three-year annualized 17 percent return tops its peers' 9 percent average gain.

Pharmaceutical giant Elan (ELN: news, chart, profile) is a favorite.

Offit lauded the Ireland-based firm's joint venture with U.S. drug group Biogen Idec (BIIB: news, chart, profile). Together, he said, the two are producing "the most exciting drug to come to market in several years." That drug is Antegren, which treats multiple sclerosis, and is expected to receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval by November, he added.

"Every indication has been that the data is very strong," on the drug, Offit said. Antegren acts to slow the progression of multiple sclerosis, but, more importantly, without the difficult cold and flu symptoms that are side effects of existing MS drugs. Even better, the drug is taken once a month, versus every day.

"We're glad Biogen is involved. It's a good company...they know the market well. It's a good partner for Elan." Offit said, adding that Elan has also filed for drugs to treat Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

U.S.-traded shares of Elan rose 21 cents on Tuesday to $24.27.

[kingofthehill]

http://www.tixx.com/goodbodys-crohns.htm

new report

[tokyojoeskid]

I really like the outlook on eln but in this market skeptical of everything. I have gotten burned by some stocks in the past qvdx, hbio blah blah blah
So I buy 100 shares of eln you think it would be wise to also buy the jan05 puts at 20 for 2.10. I suppose that way im limited to a 5pt loss (including premium) if i bought the stock today and it dropped, do you think if the antegen results come in positive, the stock will boost past 25 and be worth it?

tjk

[Michaelk005]

YES without a doubt

[Websman]

Maybe I'll finally get into ELN tomorrow. It's looking good.

[tokyojoeskid]

So what is a better deal the 22.50 for 3.10 or the 20 for 2.10. Seems to me that if i take the 22.50 I would loose less if the stock crashed, $100 less assuming(just buying one contract). But if the stock were to go way up, the put expires then i wouldnt gain as much, as if i bought the 20's for 2.10.

Does anyone have any insight when it comes to which one to purchase, or is it really just a gut thing on my behalf.

[kingofthehill]

ANTEGREN –A POTENTIAL BLOCKBUSTER FOR MS SEPTEMBER 24, 2004 PRUDENTIAL RESEARCH REPORT (16 PAGES)

Antegren, Biogen’s potential blockbuster for multiple sclerosis (MS), is currently under review by the FDA, with a decision expected by Thanksgiving. Antegren was granted priority review and accelerated approval based on an interim look at one-year data from an ongoing 116- week study. To date, this one-year data has not been released publicly.

Once approved, Antegren will be the first in a new class of selective adhesion molecules (SAMs) with the potential to revolutionize MS therapy.

As we await the release of the one-year data and the FDA’s decision, we wanted to review what is known about Antegren to date and to review the possible positioning of the drug in its lead indications of MS and Crohn’s disease.

We expect Antegren to be used as monotherapy in MS and in combination with commonly prescribed interferon. This would represent the first combination approach to the treatment of MS.

Assuming the Phase III data is similar to the Phase II data (which was the premise for the accelerated approval), we expect Antegren to be as efficacious as the interferons, but with a superior side effect profile and added convenience.

ANTEGREN COULD BE APPROVED BY THANKSGIVING. On June 25, 2004, Biogen announced the FDA's early decision to give Antegren priority review. With a six-month review now official, we believe the PDUFA date falls around November 25, or six months after the May 25 filing. Priority review status is granted when a product is perceived to be a significant improvement over currently marketed drugs for that indication. Such improvements would include increased efficacy, reduced treatment-limiting adverse events, enhanced compliance, or safety and efficacy in a particular subpopulation.

--What conclusions can we draw about the profile of Antegren from this priority review designation?

We believe that its efficacy may be an improvement to current treatment options given that management indicated that it would only have filed early if the Phase III data were consistent with the Phase II data, and if there were meaningful synergies with Avonex, Biogen’s currently marketed treatment for MS.

Antegren is likely to reduce treatment-limiting adverse event(s) associated with current MS medications. Nine-month data from ENACT-2, which used the same 300 mg dose as the AFFIRM and SENTINEL trials, presented at Digestive Disease Week in May 2004 showed that Antegren was safe and well tolerated. Antegren may enhance patient compliance via less frequent dosing (i.e., once-monthly IV infusion for Antegren versus weekly injections for the interferons and daily injections for Copaxone), and a better side effect profile.

Antegren may be efficacious in subpopulations of patients who are intolerant of, or refractory to, interferon. Again, we need to see the Phase III data before we draw conclusions regarding subpopulations.

WE THINK AN ADVISORY COMMITTEE REVIEW IS UNLIKELY. Given the early nature of the submission, the FDA could opt to have an expert panel review the data and give their recommendation regarding approval. To date, though, the FDA has not scheduled such a meeting. Typically, the FDA notifies the sponsor 60 days prior to the scheduled meeting and with a late November PDUFA date, we are closing in on the 60-day period. We note, however, that this 60-day period, while typical, is not set in stone and at any time before the PDUFA date, the FDA could advise Biogen that a meeting is required.

WHEN WILL THE ONE-YEAR ANTEGREN DATA BE UNVEILED? Should Antegren be subject to a panel meeting, this would likely be the first public viewing of the one-year data. Should the FDA decide not to have a panel meeting and following approval around the estimated late November PDUFA date, the label would be the first glimpse of the data. We were hoping to see the data in October at the ECTRIMS meeting (a major MS meeting taking place in Vienna, Austria), but the FDA has not permitted Biogen to release the data at this meeting in order to maintain the integrity of the ongoing two-year trial. Bear in mind that compared to release of the data at ECTRIMS, the release of the data at a panel meeting would only constitute a short delay of 1-3 weeks (40-50 days if the data are released in the label). We view the data release as an important catalyst for the stock, so we will be paying close attention for any decisions regarding a panel meeting.

Manufacturing is on track. We believe that Biogen's manufacturing facilities are ready to ship sufficient quantities of drug should Antegren be approved in November. At launch, Antegren will be manufactured at the Research Triangle Park facility in North Carolina where current capacity is 90,000 liters, which the company indicates should supply 70,000 patients.

Biogen will require an FDA license for the plant prior to commercial production. Biogen is also ramping up for production in an IDEC facility in Oceanside, California, which has capacity of 90,000 liters. This facility should be on line by mid-2006. Management believes that process improvements to these plants could double capacity to 380,000 liters. In addition,

-- To the frustration of the investment community, the company has not yet released the one-year data from AFFIRM or SENTINEL, for what we think could be three reasons:

To maintain the integrity of the trials, which are still ongoing;

To gather an additional six weeks of data in order to make the data set more robust; or

For competitive purposes.

Although we have not seen the data, we do know that the company previously stated that it would not have filed early unless the data looked at least as good as the Phase II data.

To get an idea of what we may see in the Phase III data from AFFIRM or SENTINEL, we examined the Phase III results revealed in May 2004 from the ENACT-2 trial in Crohn’s disease for insight into Antegren’s long-term safety. ENACT-2 was a nine-month study using the same 300 mg dose as AFFIRM and SENTINEL. In that trial, Antegren was safe and undifferentiated from placebo in terms of adverse events. We were encouraged to see a clean safety profile for Antegren, which would likely be welcome by MS patients, who are burdened by drugs with significant adverse events, including infection and flu-like symptoms.

[kingofthehill]

this is very big news

Ireland's Elan submits bowel drug for EU approval
Wed Sep 29, 2004 07:33 AM ET
LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Ireland's Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) submitted its flagship Antegren drug on Wednesday for approval by European regulators as a treatment for bowel disorder Crohn's disease, saying tests showed it worked over a 12-month period.
Antegren, which is being developed with U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , has led a dramatic recovery in Elan's fortunes, after its stock plunged 90 percent in 2002 on concerns about liquidity and an accounting probe by U.S. market regulators.

Analysts think the medicine, which is being developed primarily as a treatment for multiple sclerosis but also for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis, could eventually generate annual sales of more than $1 billion.

Elan, which has also sold assets and slashed costs to recover from a brush with bankruptcy, said new data showed 54 percent of Crohn's patients recorded a continued response to Antegren after 12-months of a final Phase III clinical trial.

This compared to a response rate of 20 percent from patients on a placebo and a 61 percent response rate recorded by patients on Antegren after six months of the clinical trial.

Some 39 percent of patients on Antegren remained in remission after 12 months, versus 15 percent of those on a placebo and 44 percent after six months.

In addition, 49 percent of Antegren patients who had previously received steroid therapy were able to withdraw from steroids at the end of the 12-month period, compared with 20 percent of placebo-treated patients.

"This filing and the presentation of 12-month data from the ENACT-2 study represent important milestones in our development of natalizumab (Antegren) as a treatment for Crohn's disease, and we are committed to working closely with the European regulators to facilitate a thorough review of our submission and the supporting data," said Lars Ekman, executive vice president and president for research and development, in a statement.

At 1030 GMT, Elan shares were up 0.2 percent at 19.38 euros.

Crohn's disease is a chronic and progressive inflammatory disease of the gastrointestinal tract, which cases diarrhoea, abdominal cramps, often fever and at times rectal bleeding.

Elan and Biogen submitted Antegren for U.S. approval as a treatment for multiple sclerosis in May and announced in June they had received a priority review from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to speed up the assessment process.

The two firms said in May they would submit Antegren for European approval in Crohn's disease in the fourth quarter.


© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.

[kingofthehill]

Elan announces that it will take a $55m charge in its interim results which will be filed this week. The charge is a reserve ahead of the resolution of SEC’s investigation and the settlement of its outstanding shareholder litigation. Today’s announcement should be seen in the context that a deal between Elan and the SEC and Elan and its class action suits has been completed but the tying up of certain legal loose ends means Elan were not able to keep to their end of September deadline. By announcing interim results this week and highlighting the size of the charge Elan is clearly telegraphing to the market that the SEC resolution and shareholder litigation are benign events and full disclosure about their resolution is imminent. A reserve of $55m coupled with their insurance coverage of $50M implies a total payout of $105m for SEC fine and shareholder suits. Such a total payout, if confirmed, would be at the low end of expectations and hugely positive for the company. Such a benign outcome could also be catalyst for a stock re-rating, as many US mutual funds are precluded from owning stocks that are under federal investigation

[kingofthehill]

Morgan Stanley on Elan today -The company update is 7 pages, but only one page of text, the rest is disclaimers as usual.
Headline is "Litigation Resolution Getting Closer"
Text "This morning Elan announced that it will take a charge of $55 million on its income statement when filing its six months results prepared under Irish GAAP for the Dublin and London stock exchanges. This reserve is net of $50 million of insurance and is the company´s estimate of the liabilities to resolve the SEC as well as ongoing shareholder class action lawsuits.
This is very good news, in our view. With respect to timing, management had indicated that it believed it should be done with the SEC process around the end of September, so the timing is in line with expectations. The imminent resolution of the class action lawsuit is actually faster than our expectations. We thought that process would take at least until end of the year. Importantly, the payment amount is about what we had expected and it is not too onerous, in our view. We look for the formal resolution of these lawsuits this month and then all eyes will turn on the all important expected approval of Antegren by late November. "

[Websman]

Hey King, are you familiar with NRPH?

They have a new drug for treating Coke addicts that has been fast tracked and seem to have a few other things up their sleeve. It's ran up about $3 in the past two weeks.

[kingofthehill]

NRPH ..no idea ..Biogen/Elan drug may squeeze rivals
By Laura Gilcrest, CBS MarketWatch
Last Update: 3:27 PM ET Oct. 11, 2004

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Biogen Idec's pipeline drug Antegren - a first-of-a-kind therapy to treat multiple sclerosis - is expected to send the sales of competitors' drugs into freefall once the new drug hits the market, analysts say.

Although Biogen (BIIB: news, chart, profile) is still wrapping up clinical testing of its new multiple sclerosis therapy Antegren, Wall Street analysts are already calling the drug a force to be reckoned with in the multiple sclerosis market.

Antegren will dominate that market once approved, said market analyst Jason Kantor, with W.R. Hambrecht & Co.

"Sales of the other companies' drugs will be reduced proportionately," Kantor said.

The rosy predictions for the drug started with Lehman Bros. upgrade of Biogen shares Monday from "overweight" to "equal weight." See full story.

Buzz over the new drug pushed Biogen up 1.6 percent to $59.88 in afternoon trading.

With its unique therapy, Biogen likely will recapture multiple sclerosis patients who have gone off other therapies because particular drug didn't work or because it caused too many side effects, Kantor said.

Rival drugs including Biogen's own Avonex, Serono's (SRA: news, chart, profile) Rebif and Chiron's (CHIR: news, chart, profile) Betaseron are all interferon beta-based drugs. Avonex sales account for 40 percent of the market with Serono and Chiron close behind, he noted.

Seronon stock slid 1.6 percent to $15.13 in Monday trading, while Chiron - already saddled with troubles on the flu vaccine - continued to sputter, dropping 3.9 percent to $34.23.

In addition, Teva (TEVA: news, chart, profile) makes Copaxone, which works by a different mechanism of action than the interferon beta drugs and is approved for primary multiple sclerosis rather than the relapsed form of the disease, Kantor said.

Teva shares rose 1.5 percent to $25.30 in afternoon trading.

But Antegren is a so-called "antibody anti-adhesion" drug and takes multiple sclerosis treatment to the next level, he said.

Data from Biogen's Phase 3 clinical study suggest the drug is twice as effective as current multiple sclerosis therapies, but with fewer side effects, he noted.

The data show patients taking Antegren had one half the relapse rates as those on rival therapies, Kantor said. Plus, patients in the clinical studies generally didn't experience the flu-like symptoms common with interferon beta therapies, Kantor added.

Geoff Porges with Bernstein & Co. agreed that Biogen's pipeline drug would secure the company's place as the top player in the multiple sclerosis market.

"There is a lot of incremental share of the market still to be captured," Porges said.

In any case, Porges cautioned that the value of Biogen's shares attributed to Antegren's debut are to some extent already factored into the stock.

"Antegren has been talked about for the better part of a year." he noted.

The real question, Porges added, is how much revenue Antegren will generate once on the market, since Biogen will be splitting profits with marketing partner Elan, based in Ireland.

Nonetheless, Antegren revenue likely will be solid, since it will be the highest priced drug in its class, Porges predicted.

[kingofthehill]

(Irish) Sunday Tribune, 17 October 2004, main top lead of Business section:
Biogen and Elan ponder e8.5 bn merger
John Mulligan
BIOGEN IDEC and Elan, joint venture partners on the development of a major new multiple sclerosis drug, Antegren, are believed to be in “friendly" discussions about “future arrangements", according to well-placed US sources. It is believed that a deal could be struck within nine months and possibly before that.
The US firm is believed to be considering an offer for the Irish drugs company in an all-share transaction worth well in excess of €8.5bn.
Elan has declined to comment on rumours that it has entered into negotiations.
The two companies are joint partners in the development of Antegren, which could prove to be one of the biggest-selling global treatments for multiple sclerosis if approved by the US Food & Drug Administration.
Approval for the drug has been fast-tracked by the regulatory agency, suggesting that it sees the drug as potentially providing major benefits in the treatment of MS, the most common disabling neurological condition affecting young adults. Sales of the drug could be worth billions of euro in coming years.
The drug also has potential uses in patients with Crohns disease and rheumatoid arthritis.
Biogen, with a market capitalisation of €15.3bn, is precluded from making unsolicited bid for Elan under the terms of the joint venture project. In July, however, chief executive James Mullen, said that this "doesn't prevent us from having general business talks about whether something like that makes sense”.
Biogen Idec did not return calls seeking comment on the speculation. However, it is understood that contact has increased substantially in recent weeks.
Issues of timing may cast some doubt on whether Biogen Idec will indeed take a tilt at Elan. It could have acquired the company or merged with it under far cheaper terms months ago, when Elan’s stock price was worth a fraction of its current price.
It is possible that Biogen-Idec may have been waiting until Elan sorted out a number of housekeeping issues, including playing down its vast debt pile – which it has done with a number of drug and subsidiary stake sales – and resolving discussions with the US Securities and Exchange Commission over its accounting practices, for which it made a provision of $55m.
Last week, Elan sold its 3.8% stake in Warner Chilcott (formerly Galen) for 83m, which will help it to meet near-term debt commitments.
Elan chief executive Kelly Martin, has previously said he was happy with the status of the joint venture partnership, and that Elan was not seeking to cement the relationship further.
Elan stock was hit in the last 10 days following comments by Biogen-Idec’s vice president of medical research, Al Sandrock, who said European Union regulators may seek comparative data for Antegren versus another available treatment.
Further data for Antegren is expected next month from Elan and Biogen. [end]

// note to casual readers of this board: the Al Sandrock comments were taken out of context. There will be no head-to-head comparison before Antegren approval.
/// This story could be coming from the Biogen-Idec side, trying to bear-hug Elan. It does mean that Elan will be in play after the SEC and Antegren approval.

[kingofthehill]

Make or break for Elan's 'silver bullet'
Sunday October 17th
By Eamon Quinn
The countdown has begun. Within weeks investors in Elan will know whether they have backed the single best high-risk bet on the Irish market, or whether - for the second time in three years - they hold the stock market equivalent of a beaten docket.

The US watchdog, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), is expected within days to deliver its verdict on Elan's former offshore and off-balance-sheet accounting practices.

Then, in a much more significant development, the US Food and Drug Administration will deliver a decision by November 26 on its fast-tracked six-month study into Antegren, a potential wonder drug for the treatment of Multiple Sclerosis (MS), which Elan jointly owns with US partner Biogen Idec.

Surprisingly, the SEC's ruling - after a two-year wait and after much concern that Elan would collapse under its own $1 billion (€800 million) of debt - is unlikely to unsettle the share price. Investors are clearly focused on a bigger prize than a favourable ruling from the SEC.

Elan shares barely budged last week when it sold off its stake in fellow Irish drug firm Warner Chilcott. According to analysts, an SEC ruling that said Elan would have to pay a fine of less than $50 million (€40 million) would be viewed as just a mild censure.

But it is the FDA decision on Antegren that will decide the fate of Elan shares.

Analysts at Davy and Goodbody Stockbrokers predict that the current share price of $21 in New York (€17 in Dublin trading) could soar to around $30 following a favourable FDA review.

"There's a concentration of events coming together in a matter of weeks with the SEC and the FDA,'' said Ian Hunter at Goodbody. "But Antegren is the key."

The Sunday Business Post first highlighted the potential of Antegren in an interview a year ago with Lars Ekman, Elan's head of research and development.

As noted at the time, Ekman abandoned the measured comments of his profession and talked enthusiastically about Antegren's potential for treating MS sufferers. He also talked about the outlook for the drug to be used also for Crohn's, a disease of the autoimmune system that leads to severe inflammation of the intestines.

"Antegren provides the most valuable, exciting development I have personally seen in my career," he told this newspaper. "It is the reason I joined Elan two and a half years ago."

In fast-tracking the trial for the drug, the FDA obviously also thought the same. It was an unprecedented move by the regulator. Never before in the history of MS treatments had the FDA ruled to cut the normal two-year period of testing on humans to only six months.

When Ekman was speaking 12 months ago, Elan shares were trading around a quarter of their current value.

what could happen to Elan shares if the FDA approves the drug next month?

Or has the share price already reflected the good news for Antegren?

The best scenario for Elan shareholders would be for the FDA to give full approval. The market would then pore over the test data to determine what share Antegren could capture of the €3.2 billion MS market, currently fought over by three drugs.

The more successful it is found to be against the rival treatments, the greater the potential uplift for Elan. "I would like to think it would make $28 on the back of news flow like that," said Jack Gorman, analyst at Davy Stockbrokers.

The rival MS drugs include Copaxone from Israeli company Teva and Rebif, produced by Serono of Switzerland.

But the biggest share of the MS drug market is controlled by Biogen, the firm with which Elan has partnered to develop Antegren.

Biogen owns outright the current best-selling MS drug, Avonex, and will have 50 per cent of the potential number one drug if the FDA data showed that Antegren were the superior drug.

The huge upside for Elan shareholders would be the potential for Antegren to be manufactured and brought to market by Biogen by mid-2005. A Biogen plant in the US would make the drug and Biogen would sell it through its existing MS sales force.

Elan would also sell Antegren through its smaller sales channel directly to US hospitals.

Under the brightest scenario, which includes full FDA approval and proof that Antegren was effective in treating MS sufferers who currently do not respond to Avonex, the Elan share price will soar, Goodbody's Hunter predicted. "$31 will be reached very quickly," he said.

The outlook also looks bright for Biogen shareholders, whose shares have already risen 55 per cent this year.

Would investors, if convinced by the Antegren story, be better advised to buy Biogen rather than Elan?

Davy's Gorman estimates that Avonex currently has 35 per cent of the of the market.

"It's a fair way of looking at things," said Gorman. "But say that Antegren is streets ahead of Avonex - Biogen could have problems in that Antegren starts cannibalising Avonex revenues, and the earnings could be at risk in a quarter or two."

Analysts said that with a less favourable outcome, the FDA could announce that the drug requires further tests. Investors will have to weigh that risk.

A successful outcome for Antegren in November would open up Antegren to be prescribed for Crohn's Disease, even though the drug has not been filed in the US as a treatment for the disease.
Nonetheless, physicians would be aware of the impending filing, and would probably substitute existing treatments for Antegren.

A successful FDA approval would make it more likely, not less, that Elan would issue a long-mooted bond issue by the end of the year, according to analysts.
The company has around $1 billion (€800 million) in debt, including the repayments due on the $390 million (€312 million) EPIL III vehicles (Elan Pharmaceutical Investments). A bond issue would help Elan to restructure its balance sheet.

"It's shaping up to be quite an exciting couple of months for Elan shareholders," said Goodbody's Jack Gorman.


The end of the article but the real beginning for the restructured Elan!

[kingofthehill]

Reuters
Biogen Mulling Bid for Ireland's Elan
Sunday October 17, 3:03 pm ET


DUBLIN, Ireland (Reuters) - U.S. drug company Biogen Idec is considering an all-share bid of more than 8.5 billion euros ($10.6 billion) for Irish peer Elan, a newspaper reported on Sunday.
Biogen and Elan, who are seeking regulatory approval for their jointly-developed Antegren multiple sclerosis treatment, are in friendly talks about "future arrangements," Ireland's Sunday Tribune quoted well-placed U.S. sources as saying.

ADVERTISEMENT


A deal could be struck within nine months, the paper said, adding that Biogen was mulling an all-share offer valuing Elan, which has a market value of 6.64 billion euros, at well in excess of 8.5 billion euros -- a premium of more than 28 percent.

The Sunday Tribune said it was understood that contact between the two companies had increased substantially in recent weeks as Elan gets its house back in order after a 2002 brush with bankruptcy amid worries over its accounts.

Elan, which is less than half the size of Biogen in terms of both revenue and market value, could not immediately be reached for comment on the report.

($1=.8011 Euro)

[kingofthehill]

Associated Press
Shares in Elan Surge on Takeover Reports
10.18.2004, 09:02 AM

Shares in once-troubled Irish drug maker Elan Corp. surged Monday after weekend reports that its main U.S. research partner, Biogen Idec Inc., could mount a friendly takeover bid.

Elan stock jumped 6.8 percent to euro18.15 (US$22.65) on the Irish Stock Exchange after Dublin newspapers reported Sunday that Biogen was considering an all-shares offer for Elan valued at more than euro8.5 billion (US$10.6 billion).

Elan spokespeople rejected the reports as baseless. Biogen Idec, which is based in Cambridge, Massachusetts, couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

Together, Elan and Biogen Idec are developing Antegren, a drug they hope can eventually be used to combat multiple sclerosis. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is scheduled to announce Nov. 26 whether the drug can be sold on the American market.

Elan was once Ireland's highest-flying company and a darling of international investors, who were attracted by its focus on finding treatments or cures for diseases of the brain and nervous system, particularly Alzheimer's. Elan stock topped US$65 in mid-2001.

But a wave of bad news in 2002 sent it tumbling to below US$5. First, Elan's long-touted cure for Alzheimer's was dropped after trials found it caused potentially fatal brain inflammation. Then, Elan admitted hiding loss-making activities in the accounts of partnerships. Within weeks, Elan's financial reporting went from heavy paper profits to its first profits warning and signs it might not be able to service debts topping US$2 billion.

Over the past year a new management team has aggressively sold off assets and licenses, ended peripheral joint ventures and focused on core products. Analysts say the most important in the pipeline is Antegren, which is designed to help many of the approximately 1 million people worldwide suffering from multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that can cause vision problems, loss of balance, numbness, difficulty walking and paralysis.

Antegren - which also is known by the generic name natalizumab - has been designed principally to slow the progression of disabilities related to multiple sclerosis, but Elan and Biogen Idec think it also can help sufferers of the gastrointestinal ailment Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

Elan has also resumed research to develop treatments for Alzheimer's. Last month it announced that U.S. authorities had awarded seven patents for research being conducted jointly with Wyeth Laboratories of Madison, New Jersey.

[kingofthehill]

Picture of Kelly Martin in weblink)
Elan up 6pc as Biogen merger rumour mounts


Asked last month if the companies were in talks, Elan chief executive Kelly Martin said: 'We must have 50 discussions a day with Biogen'.

SHARES in Elan were up 6pc in the US last night on speculation that American company Biogen may mount a friendly takeover of it, despite denials from the Irish company that it was in merger talks.

Asked to clarify its position by the Irish Stock Exchange, Elan said it was "not in negotiations or discussions with Biogen Idec regarding any form of merger or business combination between the two companies".

The Sunday Tribune had quoted US sources as saying that Biogen was looking at an €8.5bn ($10.6bn) all-share offer and that a deal could be struck within nine months.

The two companies are partners in developing multiple sclerosis treatment Antegren.

In the US, Elan shares closed up 6.1pc to $22.56, while in Dublin the shares closed up almost 6pc at €17.95.

Biogen Idec and Elan are developing Antegren for use in multiple sclerosis, Crohn's Disease and other diseases that involve the immune system.

Analysts expect the two companies to get clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration to sell the drug for use in MS cases in November.

However, the partnership agreement between Elan and Biogen blocks the US company from making a hostile bid for the Irish company.

One London-based analyst, who did not wish to be named, said the attractiveness of Elan to any company other than Biogen is limited as the US company has the right to buy the rights to Antegren in full, if Elan is bought by another company.

Biogen Idec's chief executive officer, James Mullen, said in an interview in July that the company does not have any plans to seek a merger with Elan.

Asked last month if the companies were in talks, Elan chief executive Kelly Martin said: "We must have 50 discussions a day with Biogen.

"We're equally committed to making sure Antegren as an asset is going the right way," he said, according to Bloomberg. "Those are our discussions. Launching Antegren is a very complicated task."

Mr Martin said his responsibility was to create value for patients, employees and shareholders.

"We can create an enormous amount of value if we stay focused on what we have," he said. "The ability for us to create value as a stand-alone entity is almost endless."

In a research note Goodbody analyst Ian Hunter said the two companies were in regular contact as they discuss how to account for a 50:50 split in Antegren profits.

Charlie Weston

http://www.unison.ie/irish_independent/stories.php3?ca=184&si=1270385&issue_id=1 1561

[kingofthehill]

Buy Volume: 402,184 shares
Sell Volume: 47,184 shares

I would call that a strong bias!

Dont have similar breakdown for Dublin but they traded 255,362 shares, not very busy.

15 mins ago NY was 2.5m buy, 2.2m sell.

By the way, next week, the 26th will be the 5-month anniversary for the Antegren filing!!!!

Only a matter of time now!

[kingofthehill]

there is alot of info about Elan at this link

http://www.tixx.com/ECTRIM%20reportStillorgan1.htm

[kingofthehill]

this should be the start of covering the 18 million shares short Elan , approval comes next month or sooner, this is the most exciting Biotech out there its a freaking bargin price.. 2 years ago the stock was $65.00

[kingofthehill]

http://www.businessweek.com/

NOVEMBER 1, 2004
NEWS: ANALYSIS & COMMENTARY

Antegren: Hype Or Hyperdrug?
Biogen's much-ballyhooed MS fighter is getting positive signals from the FDA

Multiple sclerosis sufferers have not benefited from a new type of drug for more than a decade. That may change by Nov. 26, when the Food & Drug Administration is expected to decide whether to approve Antegren, a dramatically different treatment for the chronic disease. The drug was co-developed by Biogen Idec Inc. of Cambridge, Mass., and Ireland's Elan Pharmaceuticals Inc.

Expectations are running high for Antegren, particularly on Wall St. Biogen Idec's stock is up 57% since January, to about $57 in mid-October, while Elan has soared from $5 to $24. Although most of the gains came early in the year, glowing analysts' reports in recent weeks have also fueled rumors that Biogen might buy its partner. Morgan Stanley sees annual sales surpassing $2 billion by 2008, while market researchers Decision Resources Inc. says Antegren "will radically alter the multiple sclerosis market."

Will Antegren live up to the hype? Plenty of biotech drugs have generated outsize expectations only to fizzle. And Antegren faces challenges, not least whether insurers will pay the drug's projected $20,000 annual cost, nearly double that of current treatments.

What's more, doctors don't know if the drug works better than existing treatments. In an unusual move, Biogen and Elan decided not to release data from two large clinical trials until after the FDA rules. Although the drug did show promising results in a mid-stage trial, that study lasted only six months and involved a small number of patients. "We don't know anything about the long-term safety of the drug, or how it compares with existing therapies," cautions Stephen C. Reingold, research head of the National Multiple Sclerosis Society.

The FDA has sent positive signals, though, granting Antegren a rapid review last May after looking at one-year results from the Phase III clinical trials, designed to run two years. Biogen says it wants to hold off releasing that interim data so as not to prejudice the final outcomes of the trials, due to end early next year. But Dr. Burt A. Adelman, head of research and development for Biogen, says the FDA typically doesn't like to base approvals on interim data. "They said these results were very striking."

MISSING EVIDENCE
Antegren also seems promising because it is the first drug designed to block the out-of-control immune cells that cause MS. These cells attack the coating that surrounds and protects nerve fibers. Over time, nerve cells are destroyed, and patients experience symptoms ranging from fatigue and blurred vision to poor muscle control and speech impairment. A patient can go weeks, months, or years without a relapse, but about 50% of sufferers end up progressing to permanent disability.

The most common treatments, led by Biogen's own Avonex, are based on interferon, an inflammation-fighting protein a patient self-injects with a needle daily or weekly. The interferons fight inflammation and reduce relapses, but they haven't been very effective in delaying progression of the disease, and they can cause debilitating flulike symptoms. By contrast, Antegren, a targeted antibody that blocks immune cells from reaching the nerve fibers, appears to have few serious side effects. It is given intravenously just once a month. Data from the mid-stage trial indicated that Antegren reduces inflammation and relapses better than interferon.

But so far no evidence exists that Antegren can slow the progression of MS. That's what doc- tors want, says Dr. John R. Richert, head of the immunology department at Georgetown University Medical Center in Washington: "The most important information is whether it [delays] disability progression. If it doesn't, I don't really care what it does to [inflammation] or the relapse rate." Given the side effects of interferon, however, patients may beg to differ.
By Catherine Arnst in New York

[kingofthehill]

Live In Play


25-Oct-04
08:35 ELN Elan Corp: Class action suits could be settled today, which would be likely positive for stock -- Piper (25.32 )

Piper Jaffray believes the outstanding shareholder class action lawsuits could be settled today, which would likely be a positive for the stock. The lawsuits are consolidated for review in Judge Berman's courtroom in the District Court for Southern New York and, according to the docket listing, the final hearing on this trial is set for 2pm ET today. Firm believes that the SEC settlement could be announced concurrently with the class action settlement; conclusion of both of these outstanding investigations will relieve an overhang on the stock, and we expect the stock to trade well ahead of and through this news.

[kingofthehill]

Good news....
Elan settles class action for $75M, settles SEC probe

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CBS MarketWatch MarketPulse
4:59 p.m. 10/25/2004 By Heather Wilson


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS. MW) -- Elan Corp. (ELN) said late Monday that it has agreed to settle a shareholder class action lawsuit and a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation. The company will pay $75 million to settle the class action suit, of which $35 million will be paid by its insurer. The settlement is subject to court approval.

[kingofthehill]

this company doubled thier position in Elan from 12 million shares to 21 millions shares

http://www.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200410261711015052e.html

[kingofthehill]

Irish Times Today

to read the latest reports on Elan go to http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

Elan's SEC and lawsuit settlements boost shares
Una McCaffrey
Shares in Elan strengthened yesterday as the market welcomed news that the company could finally move on from a major US regulatory investigation.
It emerged on Monday night that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had levied a $15 million (€11.8 million) fine on Elan after completing a formal probe into the firm's accounts.
Crucially, the fine did not involve any admission of liability on Elan's behalf. This supported the firm in its battle against a group of shareholders who were pursuing it for compensation in relation to share trades they had completed in 2000-2002.
Elan has agreed to settle with these shareholders for $75 million, again without admitting any wrongdoing. The firm's insurance will cover $35 million of this, thus leaving Elan's overall financial liability on the matter at $55 million. Elan reserved exactly this sum to cover the issue in its most recent accounts.
The resolution of the two issues is seen as a positive for Elan's share price, which yesterday gained almost 4 per cent in Dublin before attracting some afternoon profit taking. Shares closed eight cents stronger at €19.75. In New York, where the stock is mostly traded, shares gained 1.5 per cent to finish at $25.26.
Analysts predict further momentum behind the share price over coming weeks, as investment funds that were previously precluded from investing in Elan because of its regulatory problems look to take a position in the stock. However, hedge funds that were taking a bet on the outcome of the SEC investigation are likely to lose some interest in Elan, thus limiting its share price volatility.
Mr Richard Parkes, a pharmaceutical analyst with ING Barings in London, acknowledged yesterday that the settlement removed a degree of uncertainty from Elan's prospects. He believes, however, that further progress on the firm's flagship Multiple Sclerosis drug, Antegren, will be required to promote a dramatic shift in its valuation.
Antegren is being considered by the US Food and Drug Administration, which is due to make a decision on approving the drug by November 25th.
"The shares are likely to perform strongly running up to that," said Mr Parkes.
Mr Ian Hunter of Goodbody Stockbroker has a 12-month price target of $31.20 per share on Elan but he said that this would be conservative if news on Antegren was particularly positive.
Elan is likely to offer an update on Antegren when it reports third-quarter results tomorrow. The firm's partner on Antegren, Biogen, will report results tonight."
// nice comments, including the loss of volatility due to the hedge funds not having a reason to mess around, as well as Richard Parkes' comments on the run-up to Antegren as well as Ian Hunter's comment that $31.20 could be conservative

[kingofthehill]

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
October 29, 2004 2:33 p.m.

The following is a press release from Moody's Investors Service:
New York, October 29, 2004 -- Moody's Investors Service placed the ratings of Elan Corporation plc (Caa2 senior implied) under review for possible upgrade.

This rating action follows the company's announcement that it plans to issue $850 million in new senior notes, and that it will use proceeds to purchase up to $351 million of its $390 million EPIL III notes maturing in March 2005. Moody's rating outlook has been positive since April 16, 2004. Moody's believes that the issuance of new senior notes -- if successfully consummated -- should alleviate earlier concerns about Elan's near-term liquidity, stemming from insufficient internal sources of cash to repay the EPIL III maturity and significant cash flow burn.

The rating review will focus on: (1) Elan's capital structure and liquidity profile assuming successful completion of the bond offering and EPIL III tender offer; (2) structural considerations of the new notes relative to Elan's existing debt; (3) anticipated financial performance over the near and intermediate term, which may still include significant cash flow burn; and (4) longer term opportunities provided by Antegren, which is currently being reviewed by the FDA.

Moody's anticipates concluding the rating review in the very near term, as well as assigning a prospective rating to the new senior notes.

Ratings placed under review for possible upgrade:

Elan Corporation plc

Caa2 senior implied

Caa2 issuer rating

Athena Neurosciences Finance, LLC

Caa2 senior notes of $650 million due 2008 (guaranteed by Elan Corporation on a senior basis)

Elan Pharmaceutical Investments III Ltd. (EPIL III)

Caa2 senior notes of $390 million due 2005 (guaranteed on a subordinated basis by Elan Corporation plc)

Moody's does not rate Elan's $460 million convertible notes due 2008.

Elan is a specialty pharmaceutical and drug-delivery company headquartered in Dublin, Ireland, with current areas of pharmaceutical focus in neurology, pain management and autoimmune diseases.

[kingofthehill]

Elan announced last night an $850m debt re-financing. The $850 million is an aggregate principal amount of senior fixed rate notes due 2011 and senior floating rate notes due 2011. There is no convertible component and therefore no equity dilution. The funds raised will be used to pay off EPIL III debt (through a cash tender offer) and for general corporate uses. As of yesterdays results Elan had $780 in cash and $275m in investments for disposals, with $390m in debt due in 2005. However with a return to profitability only expected in 2006, a debt re-financing was always on the cards. Yesterdays results also highlighted that the impending approval and launch of Antegren for MS, will substantially increase Elan cost base. If Antegren is to be successful Elan needs to have the finances to execute the marketing of a Drug which has the potential to be the gold standard in a MS market approaching $4.5bn in Annual sales, especially as the global penetration of current treatments among MS sufferers is 28%. This debt re-financing is a positive move and the early re-payment of the contentious EPIL III special purpose vehicle may be one of the terms of Elan’s provisional SEC settlement. "

[kingofthehill]

there are a lot of rumours about a meeting in London this week ..

this article is in one of the Dublin Newspapers Sunday

"Elan's Antegren expected to get UK test boost"
John Mulligan
It is understood that investigators monitoring studies into the multiple sclerosis treatment Antegren, developed by Irish drug company Elan and being tested with its US partner Biogen Idec, are considering meeting in London this week. This follows study results that have shown the treatment to be more effective than expected.
It is believed that preliminary findings have shown that the drug may be helping to reverse the effects of the ailment in patients involved in trials.
Elan is expected to release data from the final phase of Antegren trials in the last week in November. However, it is believed that at least one trial involving approximately 20 patients, where 13 were receiving the new drug and seven were taking placebos, all 13 of the patients showed marked improvement in symptoms, while four of them say an improvement in their so-called Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS).
Neurologists use this scale to rate the progress of the disorder in patients. Zero indicates normal neurological function while 10 represents death. Patients with a score of 7 for instance, are confined to a wheelchair.
Elan and Biogen must show that the effect of Antegren on disability progression can be sustained for three months.
The US Food and Drug Administration gave Antegren priority review last June. The agency could grant approval for the drug by the end of November, allowing Elan and Biogen to begin large-scale production early next year.
Last week the Sunday Tribune reported that Elan was to agree to settle class action suits against the company for $75m. The company confirmed the settlement last Monday.
Additionally, it said that it had reached a provisional settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which will see the company pay a fine of $15m to bring to a close investigations into the company.
The SEC meets for a closed session this Wednesday in Washington and a final rubber-stamping of the agreement is expected to take place, which will leave many new fund managers free to begin buying Elan’s stock.
At the moment about 220 funds have invested in Elan – way off the high of more than 400 before investigations began into the firm. [end]

[kingofthehill]

aBiogen Idec and Elan Announce Webcast to Discuss Antegren Accounting


CAMBRIDGE, Mass. & SAN DIEGO, Calif. & DUBLIN--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov 1, 2004 - Biogen Idec Inc. (NASDAQ: BIIB) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN) will host a conference call for the investment community at 8.00am ET / 1:00pm GMT on Wednesday, November 3, 2004. Peter Kellogg, Biogen Idec's CFO, and Shane Cooke, Elan's CFO, will review the accounting methodology for ANTEGREN(R) (natalizumab). The live webcast is accessible through Biogen Idec's website, www.biogenidec.com and Elan's website, www.elan.com.

[kingofthehill]

Fidelity Investments announced then now own 9.7% of all ELN stock..thats great news >>Wellington Funds announced they added 5 million shares last week for a total of 27 millions shares of ELN ..ans S&P upgraeded Elans debt today..all good news..press conference Wed. Am about Antegren accounting with Biogen ..

[tokyojoeskid]

King,
Lets just come up with a hypothetical.

Eln's Antegen is approved. Are you in this one for the couple day pop or for the long run following the approval?
TJK

[kingofthehill]

truely , this is one of those few stocks i will hold for a year, i have sweated all the rumors..it this point im more worried about a buyout more than anything else.

Elan has the chance to book all the US sales Antegren , and split profits with Biogen ..pricing info might be out Wed. am this could really show the sales numbers for the drug. i will post as much inof as i get.. this stock is hardly followed by retail USA investors..its a keeper for a year at least ..now if the stock was to pull an OSIP and double in one day i would sell.. i cant turn down that kind of offer or profit

[kingofthehill]

11/2/04 Bloomberg TV on Antegren ..." THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR ELAN. I THINK IT DEPENDS IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM OR IF YOU'RE TALKING 12 TO 18 MONTHS. I THINK ELAN HAS 30%, 35% UPSIDE HERE IN THE NEXT SIX TO
12 MONTHS BASED ON ANTEGREN ALONE. IF YOU LOOK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE YEARS, I THINK ELAN STOCK
CAN DOUBLE, AGAIN WITH THE VIEW ANTEGREN IS A SUCCESSFUL AS I BELIEVE IT CAN BE.

[kingofthehill]

Kris Jenner of the T. Rowe Price Health Science Fund discussing his top picks on CNBC at 9:16 am ET:
.."Elan is another top pick in the fund and probably one of the most exciting new medicines to track in the
next couple years, Antegren, which we think could transform the treatment of multiple sclerosis."
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/3/04 Richard P. Collier to Join Elan as Executive Vice President and General Counsel


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/2/04 Bloomberg TV on Antegren ..." THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR ELAN. I THINK IT DEPENDS IN THE VERY
NEAR TERM OR IF YOU'RE TALKING 12 TO 18 MONTHS. I THINK ELAN HAS 30%, 35% UPSIDE HERE IN THE NEXT SIX TO
12 MONTHS BASED ON ANTEGREN ALONE. IF YOU LOOK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE YEARS, I THINK ELAN STOCK
CAN DOUBLE, AGAIN WITH THE VIEW ANTEGREN IS A SUCCESSFUL AS I BELIEVE IT CAN BE.

[kingofthehill]

GOLDMAN SACKS COMMENTS ON ELAN

As part of its pre-launch plan, BIIB may be presenting Phase III data on Antegren to
clinical investigators this weekend. Data from both the monotherapy and combination
therapy at 1 year, and potentially monotherapy at 2 years, might be presented. Release of
the data should help educate physicians and payors ahead of the potential FDA approval
by 11/25/04. Management has indicated previously that Phase III data of the monotherapy
study are similar to those from the Phase II trial. However, if the combination data and 2
-yr data are positive, BIIB shares should react favorably. The current share price implies a
75% probability of a positive FDA outcome by 11/25/04. We continue to believe that a
positive outcome is more likely. The shares should trade between mid 60's and mid 40's
depending on the FDA action. At $65, the PE is 38X our 2005 EPS and 31X consensus
2006 EPS or PEG of 1.9 and 1.5, respectively. We maintain our In- Line rating and
Neutral coverage view.
I, Maykin Ho, Ph.D., hereby certify

[kingofthehill]

this is it congrats,...were are really moving...Elan (ELN) jumped 9.8 percent after it and Biogen Idec (BIIB) said one-year data from its Phase III trial of Antegren met its primary endpoint of clinical relapse rate reduction for multiple sclerosis, and said its secondary endpoints also were met. But it also said that adverse events were 2 percent more common than in placebo-treated patients.

It said two-year results will be available in the first half of 2005. The drug was previously designed by the Food and Drug Administration for priority review.

[Michaelk005]

+DJ Serono Keeps Rebif Target After Antegren Study>SRA

11/08/2004
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2004 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

11-08-04 0530ET

*DJ Serono: Rebif To Be Leading MS Drug In US, World By 2006



(MORE) Dow Jones Newswires

11-08-04 0531ET

=DJ INTERVIEW: Serono Not Worried About New Antegren Data


By Anita Greil

of Dow Jones Newswires

ZURICH (Dow Jones)--Swiss biotechnology company Serono SA (SRA) stands by its goal of rendering Rebif the most widely-sold multiple sclerosis treatment in the U.S., Andrew Galazaka, the company's senior Vice-President of Scientific Affairs, said in an interview Monday.

His comments followed the release of interim data on a study of Antegren, a rival MS treatment, developed by Biogen Idec (BIIB) and Elan PLC (ELN).

One-year phase III data of Antegren showed a 66% reduction in relapse rate compared with placebo. This compares favorably to Rebif, which showed a 40% reduction at one year in an earlier phase III, analysts said.

However, Galazka said it doesn't make sense to compare data from one placebo-controlled trial to another, especially if there are several years in between the two trials. Instead, he pointed to what he termed "serious" safety concerns associated with Antegren.

"The safety data from the Antegren study is limited, and only short term," he said. Serono, by contrast, has eight years of safety data for Rebif.

"We are reassured by the quality of this data (on Antegren) that Rebif if well on track to become the market leader in the U.S. by 2006, and therefore also worldwide," he said.

Serono is selling Rebif in the U.S. with the help and marketing muscle of Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the world's largest pharmaceutical company.

[kingofthehill]

Hopeful MS Drug Shows Progress

By DAVID ARMSTRONG
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 9, 2004

An experimental multiple sclerosis drug, Antegren, prevents more relapses than drugs already on the market, according to some partial clinical-trial data released by Biogen Idec Inc. of the U.S. and Elan Corp. of Ireland.

Antegren is one of the most anticipated new drugs of the year. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration is widely expected to approve the drug this month after granting Antegren an expedited, priority review earlier this year.

The companies said Antegren -- whose chemical name is natalizumab -- reduced the rate of relapses 66% compared with a placebo's rate of reduction during the first year of treatment. A relapse is considered a temporary worsening of symptoms, such as difficulty walking, blurriness, tingling and numbness. Multiple sclerosis is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that affects about 400,000 people in the U.S.

The companies said the data, covering 942 patients, also show that four MS drugs on the market reduced the relapse rate 29% to 32% compared with a placebo after two years. Biogen and Elan said they didn't expect the relapse rate to change much at the two-year point. The two-year results will be released next year.

A number of analysts expect Antegren to be a blockbuster drug, with annual sales of more than $2 billion. The drug works by binding to cells that are believed to damage brain tissue and cause inflammation, thereby preventing the cells from crossing from the blood stream and into the brain.

The release of the data surprised investors, who had been told the companies wouldn't release clinic trial results until the FDA approved the drug. The companies said they decided to put out partial data now -- minus the actual rates of symptom reduction for each drug in the trials -- because trial investigators were briefed on the numbers at a meeting over the weekend.

Stephen Reingold, the vice president for research at the National Multiple Sclerosis Society, said the released results were significant, but not definitive. He said the placebo control groups in every clinical trial are unique, making comparisons difficult. The only way to know if Antegren is better than existing therapies is to conduct clinical trials comparing the drug directly to drugs on the market, he said.

The chief executive of Serono SA, the maker of rival MS drug Rebif, criticized Biogen for releasing only selected data. Ernesto Bertarelli said the failure to disclose full clinical trial results suggests some of the data is "not as pleasing as they like."

At 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, Elan was up 4%, or $1.12, to $29 a share, while Biogen shares were down 46 cents to $60.40 on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

Investors and patients also are expecting results from a second trial involving Antegren that is being scrutinized by the FDA. That trial is investigating whether or not Antegren works better in combination with Avonex, an existing MS drug from Biogen. Those results, expected to be released this month, are critical to determining just how successful Antegren will be for Biogen.

Doctors, meanwhile, are eager to review data studying the effect Antegren has on slowing the progression of the disease.

Write to David Armstrong at david.armstrong@wsj.com

[kingofthehill]

Elan (ELN US)
Previous close: 2897c
Bond offering increased to $1.15bn
jack.gorman@davy.ie
• From what we understand to be very strong demand (estimated close to four times over-subscribed), Elan last night
increased and priced its debt offering.
• The size of the overall offering was increased from $850m to $1.15bn. This primarily comprises $850m fixed rate notes
2011 which were priced at par to yield 7.75%. These were trading at a yield of 7.29% in the aftermarket.
• The remaining $300m debt is a seven-year floating rate note, priced at three-month LIBOR plus 4% (except for the first
interest payment which is six-month LIBOR plus 4%).
• All necessary consents were received from the EPIL holders and only $39m of that debt will remain to be paid in March
2005.
• The new debt offering in itself, more so given its increased size, sends a signal that Elan is looking outwards as regards
investment opportunities. In-licensing and acquisitions are likely to be on the agenda though we do not believe any significant deals are imminent. Even with the increased interest costs, the company remains on track to return to profitability sometime during 2006

[kingofthehill]

Elan (Buy, Current Price $29.88)
Mouse patents squeaky clean
Elan and the Mayo Foundation announced this morning that they have reached agreement on a dispute over certain transgenic mice patents. The mice are being used to develop treatments for Alzheimer's disease and the agreement will allow both parties to use "an array of research tools" for such endeavours. The Elan patents on the mice have been acknowledged as valid and enforceable but under the agreement cross-licences will be provided to allow both parties continue their on-going research into the disease. Currently Elan has one drug candidate (AAB-001) in Phase I/II studies with data expected in mid-2005. It is also expected to file an Investigational New Drug (IND) request with the FDA for a second candidate in the first half of 2005 with a further two requests to bring candidate drugs from pre-clinical to human trials due late 2005 and/or 2006.
http://www.goodbody.ie/news/morn.html

Nice to see the Alzheimers effort getting a little more publicity

[kingofthehill]

The Sunday Times - Business



November 14, 2004

Judgment Day: Should you buy shares in Elan?
New drug is perfect cure for financial ills



ELAN shares reached an all-time high of $65 (€50) in 2001 before crashing to $1.05 a year later following a traumatic period that saw the American Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launch an investigation into the pharmaceutical company’s accounting policies and poor trial results from its hoped-for treatment for Alzheimer’s disease.
The pressure this placed on the company led to doubts about its ultimate survival.



But a rescue plan devised by Garo Armen, a main board director promoted to chairman and chief executive following the resignation of Donal Geaney, saw Elan unwind potentially devastating liabilities, deal with the SEC and, most important, get its drug pipeline back on track. With promising preliminary results from Antegren, the company’s treatment for multiple sclerosis, anticipation surrounding Elan has reached new heights in recent months.

Elan shares have been far and away the best performers on the Irish market in the year to date and, if all goes according to plan, have the capacity to increase substantially in 2005.

The two experts below have been selected for their skills in several investment areas. They, or the funds they manage, may hold shares in the companies or sectors discussed.

Kevin McConnell, head of equity research, Bloxham Stockbrokers

ANY shareholder sitting on an investment that has quadrupled in 11 months might be inclined to a profit. In the case of Elan, however, our view is that they should resist placing a sell order. We believe substantial upside remains for a company that over the next few weeks should see FDA approval of Antegren, its treatment for MS.

Biotech stocks such as Genentech and Imclone posted gains in excess of 50% after gaining FDA approval for drugs that had blockbuster potential. Antegren’s approval would validate Elan’s science and augurs well for its promising drug development pipeline.

Biotech investing is considered risky as it is based on assessing which pipelines can deliver supernormal profits. Next year should see substantial pipeline news flow from Elan, with clinical trial results expected for Antegren and its Alzheimer’s drug franchise. Elan should also become cash-flow positive next year and earnings positive in 2006.

By 2007 Antegren could be the leader in an MS market that is currently worth $4 billion (€3.1 billion). That could translate into earnings of $2 per share for Elan.

With standard biotech price-earning ratios running at 35-40 times earnings, the potential for a revaluation means the current price is compelling.

Events over the past few weeks have transformed the risk profile of Elan — a provisional SEC settlement; a $1.15 billion successful debt pricing; and the news that after one year of trials Antegren had hit its primary and secondary end points — drastically reduces that risk profile.

The re-rating resulting from Antegren approval should be supported by this expansion of Elan’s shareholder base.


Judgment: buy

David Marshall, equity analyst, NCB Stockbrokers

[kingofthehill]

copied from Forbes.com

If all goes as expected, Kelly Martin, CEO of Elan Pharmaceuticals (nyse: ELN - news - people ), and James Mullen, CEO of Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ), could receive a long-awaited green light from U.S. regulators for Antegren, a treatment for multiple sclerosis that the two companies are developing. Investors will be watching for data, yet to be released, on the drug. There could be a downside for Biogen if Antegren doesn't work well with the company's existing multiple sclerosis treatment, Avonex. If there are any warts, they are likely to be pointed out by Serono (nyse: SRA - news - people ), which makes a rival drug. Serono CEO Ernesto Bertarelli has been openly critical of Biogen Idec and Elan's decision to remain mum on their data until they get approval from the Food and Drug Administration. -- Matthew Herper

[Michaelk005]

I liked the sell of on Fri. Just the rookies getting scared and taking profits. My fingers are crossed for the announcement. Ill make a pretty penny and I bet you will to King.

We should be on the prowl for the next ELN.

[tokyojoeskid]

Is anyone buying the dec puts???

[RL]

Joe Kernen on cnbc said ELN drug was approved

[kingofthehill]

not yet maybe after the bell, the name change rumor seems correct as there is a drug with a similar name ..and http://www.fda.gov/cder/consumerinfo/druginfo/ANTAGON.htm it is also an injection


here is the latest info

BIIB Biogen Idec follow-up II (55.90 -1.24) -- Update --

As mentioned earlier (11:14 and 11:29), the Wall Street Journal reports that a Houston hospital prematurely issued a press release announcing the FDA had approved a new drug for multiple sclerosis from BIIB and ELN. A spokeswoman for The Methodist Hospital said FDA approval is expected as early as Tuesday, and the hospital is participating in the clinical trial of the drug, called Antegren. The spokeswoman said the director of the hospital's M.S. unit spoke to BIIB officials about FDA approval Monday. An FDA spokeswoman said the drug has not been approved. The hospital release indicates Antegren will have a new name when approved by the FDA, called Tysabri.

[kingofthehill]

APPROVED BABY ... http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/news/2004/NEW01141.html

[Websman]

APPROVED BABY ... http://www.fda.gov/bbs/topics/news/2004/NEW01141.html

Damn!!! I should have held it!!!

[kingofthehill]

23 November 2004
FDA Grants Accelerated Approval of TYSABRI, Formerly ANTEGREN, For the Treatment of Multiple Sclerosis
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. and SAN DIEGO, Calif. and DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 23, 2004--

Approval of TYSABRI Marks A Major Advancement in the Treatment of MS Phase III Trials at One Year Demonstrate New Level of Efficacy - 66% Reduction in Rate of Relapses Seen in AFFIRM Monotherapy Trial

Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) and Elan Corporation, plc (NYSE: ELN) announced today that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved TYSABRI(R) (natalizumab), formerly referred to as ANTEGREN(R), as treatment for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) to reduce the frequency of clinical relapses. FDA granted Accelerated Approval for TYSABRI following Priority Review based on one-year data from two Phase III studies, the AFFIRM monotherapy trial and the SENTINEL add-on trial with AVONEX(R)(Interferon beta-1a).

TYSABRI, the first humanized monoclonal antibody approved for the treatment of MS, inhibits adhesion molecules on the surface of immune cells. Research suggests TYSABRI works by preventing immune cells from migrating from the bloodstream into the brain where they can cause inflammation and potentially damage nerve fibers and their insulation.

"TYSABRI is a powerful and innovative therapy that offers new hope for hundreds of thousands of people living with MS," said James C. Mullen, chief executive officer, Biogen Idec. "We believe TYSABRI will revolutionize the treatment of MS and become the leading choice for patients and physicians."

"TYSABRI is a significant breakthrough for patients with MS," said Kelly Martin, president and chief executive officer, Elan. "The approval of TYSABRI, with its unique mechanism of action and new level of efficacy, has the potential to make a genuine difference in the lives of patients and families who struggle with the debilitating effects of this disease."

Results of the AFFIRM Monotherapy Trial

AFFIRM is a two-year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double-blind study of 942 patients conducted in 99 sites worldwide, in which patients were randomized to receive either a fixed 300 mg IV infusion dose of TYSABRI (n=627) or placebo (n=315) every four weeks. TYSABRI reduced the rate of clinical relapses by 66 percent relative to placebo (p<0.001), the primary endpoint at one-year. The annualized relapse rate was 0.25 for TYSABRI-treated patients versus 0.74 for placebo-treated patients.

AFFIRM also met all one-year secondary endpoints, including MRI measures. In the TYSABRI-treated group, 60 percent of patients developed no new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions compared to 22 percent of placebo-treated patients (p<0.001). On the one-year MRI scan, 96 percent of TYSABRI-treated patients had no gadolinium enhancing lesions compared to 68 percent of placebo-treated patients (p<0.001). The proportion of patients who remained relapse free was 76 percent in the TYSABRI-treated group compared to 53 percent in the placebo-treated group (p<0.001).

Results of SENTINEL Add-on Study

Approval was also based on the results of another Phase III clinical trial, SENTINEL. SENTINEL is a two-year, randomized, multi-center, placebo-controlled, double-blind study of 1,171 AVONEX-treated patients in 123 clinical trial sites worldwide.

In the SENTINEL trial, AVONEX-treated patients who continued to experience disease activity were randomized to add TYSABRI (n=589) or placebo (n=582) to their standard regimen.

SENTINEL achieved its one-year primary endpoint. The addition of TYSABRI to AVONEX resulted in a 54 percent reduction in the rate of clinical relapses over the effect of AVONEX alone (p<0.001). The annualized relapse rate was 0.36 for patients receiving TYSABRI when added to AVONEX versus 0.78 with AVONEX plus placebo.

SENTINEL also met all secondary endpoints, including MRI measures. In the group treated with TYSABRI plus AVONEX, 67 percent of patients developed no new or newly enlarging T2 hyperintense lesions compared to 40 percent in the AVONEX plus placebo group (p<0.001). On the one-year MRI scan, 96 percent of TYSABRI plus AVONEX-treated patients had no gadolinium-enhancing lesions compared to 76 percent of AVONEX plus placebo-treated patients (p<0.001). The proportion of patients who remained relapse-free was 67 percent in the TYSABRI plus AVONEX-treated group compared to 46 percent in the AVONEX plus placebo-treated group (p<0.001).

"I believe TYSABRI will be an important therapeutic advance for patients with relapsing MS," said Richard Rudick, MD, lead investigator of the SENTINEL trial and director, Mellen Center for Multiple Sclerosis, Cleveland Clinic Foundation. "Patients who have discontinued therapy, are newly diagnosed with MS, or have persistent active disease despite being on a current therapy will benefit from TYSABRI."

Safety

Common adverse events associated with TYSABRI include headache, fatigue, urinary tract infection, depression, lower respiratory tract infection, joint pain and abdominal discomfort. The rate of infection in both studies was approximately one per patient-year in both TYSABRI-treated patients and placebo-treated patients.

Serious infections occurred in 1.3 percent of placebo-treated patients and 2.1 percent of TYSABRI-treated patients. Serious infections included bacterial infections such as pneumonia and urinary tract infection, which responded appropriately to antibiotics. TYSABRI has been associated with hypersensitivity reactions, including serious systemic reactions, which occurred at an incidence of less than 1 percent of patients.

Immunogenicity

All biologics have the potential to induce patient antibodies. Analysis of the one-year Phase III MS trials indicate a low level of immunogenicity associated with TYSABRI. Patients were tested for antibodies every 12 weeks in the AFFIRM and SENTINEL trials. Antibodies were detected in approximately 10 percent of patients at least once during treatment, with 6 percent of patients remaining persistently positive. Persistently positive antibodies were associated with a substantial decrease in efficacy and an increase in certain infusion-related adverse events. Almost all patients who tested positive for antibodies did so within the first 12 weeks of treatment.

Two-year Results

AFFIRM and SENTINEL are two-year trials. Two-year results are anticipated beginning in the first half of 2005. Patients who complete these trials are eligible for enrollment in a long-term safety extension study.

"The MS community is pleased that the FDA approval of TYSABRI provides an additional treatment option for people with relapsing forms of MS. There are many people living with MS who may benefit from this different treatment approach," said Stephen C. Reingold, PhD, vice president for research, the National MS Society.

About TYSABRI

Biogen Idec and Elan are collaborating equally on the development of TYSABRI in MS, Crohn's disease (CD), and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). In September 2004, a Marketing Authorisation Application (MAA) for CD was filed with the EMEA based on Phase III studies, and another Phase III induction trial for CD is ongoing. A Phase II trial is also underway to evaluate TYSABRI in RA. To date, more than 2,800 patients have received TYSABRI in clinical trials.

Information about TYSABRI, including prescribing information, and its comprehensive support services, will be available through a single toll-free number (1-800-456-2255), and via www.TYSABRI.com.

About Multiple Sclerosis

MS is a chronic disease of the central nervous system that affects approximately 400,000 people in North America and more than one million people worldwide. It is a disease that affects more women than men, with onset typically occurring between 20 and 40 years of age. Symptoms of MS may include vision problems, loss of balance, numbness, difficulty walking and paralysis.

Webcast

The companies will host a joint webcast for the investment community tomorrow at 8:00 a.m. EST, 1:00 p.m. GMT, which can be accessed through the companies' websites. At the conclusion of this call, Elan will have a separate conference call to address any company-specific questions at 9:15 a.m EST, 2:15 p.m. GMT, which can be accessed through the company website.

About Biogen Idec

Biogen Idec creates new standards of care in oncology and immunology. As a global leader in the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of novel therapies, Biogen Idec transforms scientific discoveries into advances in human healthcare. For product labeling, press releases and additional information about the company, please visit http://www.biogenidec.com.

About Elan

[rickg777]

Congratulations, ELN longs! Special thanks to KINGOFTHEHILL for all the positive posts and for hanging in through the emotional rollercoaster and for helping me hang in. What do you see happening next?

[Michaelk005]

Yahooooooooooo

[kingofthehill]

I love the stock, I will keep a great portion of my holdong for 2 more years this really should become a $100.00 stock.. now the shorts need 20 million shreas to cover, they will lie cheat and steal to do it so who know next week but on the longer term ..this stock is going way up !!!

HEALTH
MS Drug Receives FDA Approval

One-Year Results Prompt
Agency to Expedite Tysabri,
From Biogen Idec, Elan
By DAVID ARMSTRONG
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 24, 2004

The Food and Drug Administration granted expedited approval to a new drug for multiple sclerosis that has produced impressive results in clinical trials.

The drug from Biogen Idec Inc. and Elan Corp. will be called Tysabri. It had been called Antegren, but the companies were required to change the name because Antegren resembled the name of another drug already on the market.

The stocks of both companies have soared since February when they announced the FDA would allow them to seek approval for the drug on the basis of just one-year results.

"This innovative treatment for multiple sclerosis represents a new approach to treating MS," said Lester M. Crawford, the acting FDA commissioner. "While we eagerly await long-term results from ongoing clinical trials, we have reason to believe that Tysabri will significantly reduce relapses in MS."

The companies said the drug will be available to patients next week.

How much of a boon to patients or the companies Tysabri will be is open to debate, but some analysts believe the drug could become the best-selling MS drug, with annual sales of more than $2 billion.

Tysabri reduced the rate of relapse in patients by 66% compared with a placebo group. That rate was almost double the reduction rate reported by the four MS drugs already on the market, including the best-selling Avonex, which is also made by Biogen. The other drugs are Rebif from Serono SA; Copaxone from Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. and Schering AG's Betaseron.

A second clinical trial was conducted to see if Tysabri reduced the relapse rate for patients taking Avonex, which had sales of $1.2 billion last year. For patients taking both drugs, there was a reduction in the relapse rate of 54% compared with the group taking Avonex and a placebo.

Biogen hopes those results will be good enough to convince some doctors that some Avonex patients should receive both drugs. Biogen receives all of the profits from Avonex but must split the profits from Tysabri with Elan.

The new drug generated buzz because it works differently than existing MS drugs. Tysabri binds to cells that are believed to damage brain tissue and cause inflammation, thereby preventing the cells from crossing from the blood stream into the brain. The other drugs regulate the immune system by, among other things, interfering with the production and migration of white blood cells thought to contribute to tissue damage and inflammation.

[billyjoe]

While this is great for ELN investors , it's even better news for those suffering from MS. How many times have their hopes been shattered by promising drugs that failed the trials . It makes me think of a couple friends that didn't live to see this breakthrough. I wish ELN has many more winners in the lab and in the market.
billyjoe

[New-born baby]

King,

Hearty and heartfelt congratulations to you for riding this thing out! Best wishes to you and ELN for many profitable years. I am not partaking of the profit. I left ELN a long time ago, as you once wrote, "ELN--Not for the faint of heart." My stomach couldn't take the ride. But I congratulate you on 'a full ride' (if you follow bullriding, you know what I mean).

[scifos]

This thing could really make a move in the next 12 months, pharma stocks always make big moves with positive FDA news. I'm on the sidelines for the Thanksgiving holiday (will be away from the 'work' of investing), otherwise I'd join you. I have the feeling though that a few days won't matter in the long haul.

[spikefader]

She's a good pick King! Grats!
Now let's hope the news gets bought all the way to an upper weekly channel of about 80.00 in the next month :D
Looks like we've got a good chance to see an island reversal on the daily tomorrow - wouldn't THAT be nice :D

[billyjoe]

An interesting note on yesterdays trading, UTHR gained 6.21 or 18% on news they received secondary approval on a hypertension drug while CNCT lost 4.63 or 18% on non approval of a dandruff drug . Why weren't their losses and gains already built into the price beforehand like ELN's seemed to be. Was ELN's approval such a certainty or is it grossly underpriced?
billyjoe

p.s. ELN has 11x the float of CNCT and 18x the float of UTHR

[kingofthehill]

"Tysabri Priced at Premium
Elan announced the wholesale pricing of Tysabri (Antegren) at $1,808 per vial or c.$23,500 annual (based on dosing every 4 weeks). The price is c.30% higher than our forecast for annual pricing of $18,000 and we will be increasing our revenue and earnings forecasts on the back of the higher pricing. Delivery of the first Tysabri shipments to wholesalers are planned for early this week.

The pricing which is c.35% higher than Serono's Rebif and is supported by the improved safety and efficacy profile of the product over the currently marketed drugs. The gross margin on Tysabri is guided to 75% at launch and should increase to 85% over time.

Given Tysabri's efficacy, safety & side-effect and neutralizing antibody data were all in-line or better than our previous assumptions we remain comfortable with our market share assumptions for the product in MS. In our view the strength of the relative improvement in both relapse rate reduction ands lesion reduction seen with Antegren in combination with its benign side-effect profile offers MS patients a viable alternative to the
limited differentiation seen with the Beta interferon therapy options (Rebif, Avonex, Betaseron) or Copaxone.

In summary our assumptions for Tysabri's penetration of the US market are detailed below. We break the US multiple sclerosis patient population available for Tysabri into three broad subgroups. The subgroups and Tysabri penetration of each group is assumed as follows;
(i) New MS sufferers presenting for treatment. Market estimates suggest that approximately 10,000 newly diagnosed patients present each year for treatment and that c.3,000 of these individuals will take Antegren in 2005 and 4,000 per year in 2006-2009."

(ii) Patients switching from other therapies. We estimate c.200,000 individuals will be taking MS disease modifying therapies in 2005 and according to independant clinical research c.10-15% of patients stop or switch therapy each year in the US - usually due to relapses occurring or intolerance of therapy. We forecast that Antegren will benefit significantly by offering a new therapeutic option (to switch to) which has significantly improved efficacy (in terms of relapse rates) over existing therapies. We forecast that 5% and 13% of patients on other MS therapies will switch to Antegren in 2005 and 2006, respectively. In the first five years post launch we forecast that in total c.30% of MS sufferers will have switched from another therapy to Antegren.
(iii) Relapsing remitting MS sufferers currrently not presenting for therapy. Over 100,000 US MS sufferers are estimated to currently not receive any treatment - primarily due to either having fallen off current therapies due to intolerance or never having taken treatment. We forecast that in 2005, 7,000 of these patients will take Antegren and 9,000 per year in 2006-2008.

We forecast that Tysabri will take c.40% market share in MS by 2009. Of the patients we forecast to be taking Antegren in 2008 c.45% are forecast to be newly diagnosed MS patients or patients currently not taking disease
modifying MS therapies."

What about my "upside in the pricing" call? I know my $26k call was ambitious but $23.5k is excellent and is significant upside as predicted last week!

[kingofthehill]

Elan Corporation plc

30 November 2004

Re: Holding in Company

A letter from Wellington Management Company, LLP dated 29 November 2004, received by Elan Corporation plc on 30 November 2004.

Notification concerning interests in shares of Elan Corporation plc (the " Company)

1.

Wellington Management Company, LLP ("Wellington Management") is registered as an investment adviser with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and acts as discretionary investment manager on behalf of various separate (the " Accounts") that hold an interest in shares of the Company. Wellington Management's interest in the shares is as an investment manager, as is mentioned in Sections 67(1) and 77(4) (B) of the Companies Act 1990(the "Act"). The Accounts do not act as a group or do the act in concert with respect to the interests in shares. Wellington Management acquired the interested in shares for the Accounts in its capacity as discretionary investment manager to, and solely for the benefit of, the Accounts, and the interests were acquired solely for investment purposes. The shares are registered in the name of the Accounts or the Accounts' custodians or nominees according to their respective holdings.

2.

Wellington Management as discretionary investment manager on behalf of various separate accounts has purchased, in the aggregate, 2,437,754 ordinary shares and 33,445,211 ADR shares. On a converted basis, this represents the equivalent 35,882,965 ordinary shares, or 9.19% of the shares outstanding of the Company. This is an increase of 1 .17% since our notification on November 15, 2004. Therefore, Wellington Management hereby give notice to the Company of such interests in shares, pursuant to the provisions of Sections 67 (1) and 77 (4)(B) of the Act.

3.

This notice is given in fulfillment of, and for the express purpose of discharging the obligations imposed on us by, Sections 67 (1) and 77 (4)(B) of the Act and arising out of the circumstances referred to in paragraph 2.

Julie A Jenkins

Vice President and Counsel

Wellington Management Company, LLP

This announcement has been issued through the Companies Announcement Service of

The Irish Stock Exchange


This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

[kingofthehill]

the above post is great news this company only started a position in ELN in July .. they bought 5 million more shares in the last 2 weeks paying $28-30 per share!

[kingofthehill]

you can never tell what ELn is doing day to day .. but the good news is Capital group filed with the UK that they own 6% of ELN ..of course on a nice green day ELN is red..

[Michaelk005]

I have become extremely irritated with this stock. It wont move. Whens the time for the next pop. My call was today but I was wrong, I am worried investors are waiting for an earnings report..

[Michaelk005]

I spoke a day short. $2 gain in two days.

[thebign1]

I spoke a day short. $2 gain in two days.

Is everybody still in this.....I'm up 26% now.
ELN goes up the last 2 days w/nice volume but with no news.
What's up with that? Regards, Norm

[tokyojoeskid]

Im still in, but only a marginal gain, in and out at 19 and back in at 25.95.
long and strong elan
tjK

[kingofthehill]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/8fd051ec-4a7d-11d9-a0ca-00000e2511c8.html

Elan, the Dublin-listed pharmaceutical group, was up 5.7 per cent to EURO 21.40 - the Eurofirst�s biggest gainer - as speculative buying increased in anticipation of a successful entry in to the multiple sclerosis drug market with Tysabri.

[kingofthehill]

there is a great article on TYSABRI at the Motely fool

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04120702.htm?source=eptyholnk303100&logvisit=y&npu=y&bounce=y&bounce2=y

"To stave off Elan bulls, who will say I'm understating the drug's potential because it may be approved for other uses, let me say I know that. Tysabri is in clinical trials for Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis. Approval for either would make it one of the top-selling drugs in the world. The purpose of this article was to calculate sales potential for MS, not for the drug as a whole."

[Websman]

Two Questions for the King

1.What is your target price on ELN, now that the approval has taken place?

2.Do you have any other huge prospects that might perform like OSIP and ELN did?


Webs...

[noshadyldy]

I would've expected Elan to pop a lot more than it did upon approval. Why the slow simmer?

[jiesen]

I would've expected Elan to pop a lot more than it did upon approval. Why the slow simmer?
IMO, the reason is that ELN was priced for approval of Antegren/Tysabri already. Much of the run up from sub-10 to 30 was the expectation of this approval, and if it hadn't happened, ELN would likely be back under 10 right now. The next move up for ELN would have to be on good earnings from the drug (better than expected). Of course the move could come just as easily before the earnings are out, if speculation that earnings are good drives the stock price up.

Anyway, that's just my 2 cents...

[kingofthehill]

Jiesen, when the final data is released in Jan. or April, the patients will DEMAND the drug form their Docs. when the main stream newspapers see the reports similar to this one .. it will double ... it takes time to make a fortune and i am willing to wait for it

Tysabri - A patient's story

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Business: News

Last modified Saturday, December 11, 2004 8:14 PM PST




A patient's story

By: BRADLEY J. FIKES - Staff Writer

Treating multiple sclerosis, or even diagnosing it, isn't easy. The disease can produce a variety of symptoms that can be mistaken for other conditions.

Shari Ferko, a multiple sclerosis participant in a Phase II trial of Tysabri, knows this from personal experience. She had her first symptom, a loss of sight in her left eye, in 1979. But she wasn't diagnosed with multiple sclerosis until 1990.

To treat her vision loss, Ferko was given the drug prednisone, and her vision temporarily improved.


"In 1984, I had another bout with my vision problem and numbness with my left leg," said Ferko, who was living in Tennessee at the time. "The doctor said I probably had a pinched nerve, but it never went away."

During the rest of the decade, Ferko's balance and coordination deteriorated, making walking difficult, and she experienced problems with bladder and bowel control. She began to fatigue easily.

As the symptoms worsened, Ferko was forced out of jobs, including one as a hospital nurse, and later at a medical clinic.

Ferko continued her prednisone treatments during the early 1990s, until they were no longer effective. Her prognosis was bleak.

"I was told I would be using a cane in two years, a wheelchair in five years and be dead in 10 years," Ferko said. "My kids were 7 and 8. I wouldn't see them graduate from high school, go on to college or have kids of their own."

Things changed for the better after Ferko moved to Dallas. She contacted the Dallas chapter of the National Multiple Sclerosis society. In 1998 she found J. Theodore Phillips, a neurologist who had developed expertise in multiple sclerosis since the early 1980s.

"It was just like night and day. He knew all about MS," Ferko said.

Phillips suggested she join a Phase II study of Tysabri. In the double-blinded study, neither patients nor physicians knew who was getting the drug or a placebo. Later, she was placed in an "open label" study where both Phillips and Ferko know she is getting the drug.

Today, Ferko's health has stabilized. She works today at a desk job as a legal nurse consultant.

"I did live to see my daughter graduate from college. I did live to see my son's first child born, and I get to baby-sit, so that works out really well," Ferko said "Ö If this is the kind of life I can have, I'm really happy."

Ferko advises those diagnosed with multiple sclerosis to make finding a knowledgeable doctor their highest priority.

"This is not the death sentence that it was 20 years ago. You can live a full life, but it's important to get involved with a physician that knows MS," she said.

The San Diego chapter of the National Multiple Sclerosis Society can be contacted on the Web at (www.mssd.org) or by phone at (858) 974-8640.

Editions of the North County Times Serving San Diego and Riverside Counties
http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2004/12/12/business/news/14_54_4112_11_04.txt

[kingofthehill]

TO UNDERSTAND ELAN ... THIS ARTICLE IS A MUST READ


From idea to product to patient: the story of a clinical trial

By: BRADLEY J. FIKES - Staff Writer

It was the afternoon of Nov. 23, and the fax still hadn't arrived at the headquarters of Biogen Idec in Cambridge, Mass. Al Sandrock, Biogen Idec's vice president of medical research, was increasingly anxious. The fax, due from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, would confirm that Tysabri, its new drug to treat multiple sclerosis, had been approved. Approval would mean hundreds of millions of dollars in sales to Biogen Idec and its partner, the Irish drug company Elan Pharmaceuticals ---- and new hope to multiple sclerosis patients.

"I pretended I had business in the area of the fax machine," Sanrock said. "I heard a little yelp of excitement. It turned out the fax was just coming through. People were bringing in cases of champagne, some speeches were made. There was a lot of champagne drinking, slapping on the back."

That fax from the FDA, transmitted in minutes, was more than a decade in the making.


Solving a medical mystery

Multiple sclerosis, or MS, has long been an extremely frustrating disease, for both patients and doctors.

"A handful of treatments are on the market, yet in the absence of a cure, the treatments that have been available have been only partially to moderately effective," said Dallas neurologist J. Theodore Phillips, who has specialized in MS since 1984. Phillips has participated in Tysabri's clinical trials for about eight years.

Multiple sclerosis is a disease of the central nervous system. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of patients' brains show lesions in a section called the white matter. But what produces those lesions was a mystery.

MS symptoms include limb numbness, dizziness and trouble walking. Patients experience periods of disability followed by remissions and relapses. Symptoms tend to get worse over time, and can lead to total incapacitation or death.

In the 1980s and early '90s, researchers deduced that multiple sclerosis is a so-called "autoimmune" disease, caused by an attack by a certain type of white blood cell on the central nervous system. This produces inflammation and the brain lesions seen on MRI scans.

With a possible cause to work with, researchers began thinking of a treatment. In the early 1990s, a South San Francisco biotechnology company called Athena Neurosciences, began testing a drug based on that theory. The drug, called Antegren, was named Tysabri after the FDA approval.

Athena didn't survive to see Tysabri's success. In 1996, Athena was purchased by Elan, which continued clinical development of the drug. Biogen entered the picture in 2000, signing an agreement with Elan to help develop and produce Tysabri. Biogen merged in 2003 with San Diego's Idec Pharmaceuticals, creating Biogen Idec.

The science behind Tysabri

To stop the autoimmune attack, Athena scientists harnessed another part of the immune system, large protein molecules called antibodies. They designed an antibody that latched onto these white blood cells, stopping their assault.

This particular kind of antibody, called a "monoclonal antibody," is made by copying, or in scientific jargon, "cloning" a human gene, in this case a gene for making the antibody. This cloned gene is inserted it into "immortalized" animal cells, usually from a cancer. The cells reproduce endlessly when given the right nutrients, secreting the monoclonal antibody in the process.

Tysabri is made from genetically engineered mouse cells taken from a white blood cell cancer called myleoma. It was given the scientific name natalizumab. (The suffix -mab indicates it is a monoclonal antibody.)

Phillips said he took part in Athena's trials because he liked the idea of testing a drug crafted by basic medical research. He began recruiting patients to test Tysabri, which is given by intravenous infusion in a clinic once a month.

"Until we have a cure, there will be a continuous need to have something better and better and better until we get to a cure," he said. "As time goes forward, as we understand MS more, I think we'll get to the point where we'll achieve a tight control of the disease, if not ultimately a cure. This (Tysabri) is a major step in that direction."

A costly, lengthy maze

There was no guarantee of success when Tysabri entered the three-phase clinical trial process. The opposite was closer to the truth. Drugs that enter Phase 1 testing have only an 8 percent chance finishing Phase 3 trials and reaching the market, according to the FDA.

Biogen Idec declined to provide a cost estimate for Tysabri's development. However, the Tufts Center for the Study of Drug Development at Tufts University in Boston estimates the average total cost of developing a new drug at $848 million, as measured in 2003 dollars.

Tysabri is now being manufactured now in a 90,000 liter-capacity Biogen Idec plant in North Carolina. Late next year, another 90,000-liter plant being constructed in Oceanside is scheduled to begin preliminary production. The plant cost $380 million, and when fully built out is expected to cost $1.3 billion. It must be inspected by the FDA before commercial production can begin.

Biogen Idec expects the Oceanside plant to be making test patches of Tysabri by the early fall of 2005. Full licensing by the FDA is expected by 2006.

"We submit a dossier of information to the FDA before the inspection," said David Broad, general manager of Biogen Idec's Oceanside plant and the company's West Coast vice president of manufacturing. "It takes a minimum of four months for the FDA to review that information, inspect the plant, and approve us."

Progress

Anticipating success as the trials progressed, Biogen Idec designed the trials to allow an early peek of results of the Phase 3 study. After about one year, the FDA would "unblind" the results," Phillips said, and look at the data. The FDA had agreed before the Phase III trials began that the agency would consider early approval if the results were compelling.

The results were dramatic. Brain lesions were reduced by 90 percent. Moreover, Tysabri-treated patients had fewer relapses than existing treatments, including Biogen Idec's own MS drug, Avonex. Those treatments reduced relapses by 33 percent, while Tysabri reduced them by 66 percent.

The early Phase III results were so impressive that Biogen Idec decided to file for early approval. The company submitted its application electronically, in a cartridge containing Fujufilm DLT Tape. The cartridge was 4 inches square and 1 inch thick, hand-carried by company employees to the FDA.

In the days before electronic submissions, companies frequently delivered the applications on trucks, because the paperwork was so massive.

Patient support

The involvement of patients is critical to successful clinical trials. They must take the medications, report symptoms and observe strict conditions to make sure the information gathered is valid.

One of the most challenging conditions is that the Tysabri trials were "double-blinded," meaning that neither doctors nor patients knew if they were getting the drug or a placebo.

Patients with a deadly disease might be expected to chafe under such a condition. But Phillips said their reaction was "just the opposite."

"They feel, very correctly, that they are contributing to the next generation of medication," Phillips said. "If it weren't for these people, we would never have anything new."

To Phillips, one of the most meaningful parts of the Tysabri trial is what may come after, as this and other drugs are tested on other autoimmune diseases such as Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

"It's a happy happenstance that the first disease studied with the new approach happened to be MS, and that we had such a resounding positive result," Phillips said. "It opens the gateway for other autoimmune diseases to be studied with this same conceptual base."

Accomplishment

All of the work by Athena/Elan/Biogen Idec, the years of clinical testing, came down to that fax sent in the late afternoon of Nov. 23, producing the cheering, speeches, champagne toasts and back-slapping that followed.

Sandrock, a former academic researcher, described his own reaction as more internal: a sense of accomplishing something that would improve lives.

"I used to celebrate when we got a paper accepted or a grant renewed," Sandrock said. "This time, I saw a picture of the actual vial with the name Tysabri. It's something tangible. It treats a real problem. . . It was a feeling I'd never experienced before in my professional life."

Contact staff writer Bradley J. Fikes at bfikes@nctimes.com or (760) 739-6641.

Previous Story:

[billyjoe]

King,
I'm a believer.
billyjoe

[billyjoe]

kingofthehill,
With all the bad press hurting MRK PFE and others it would seem that ELN will be a slam dunk . The big question is when. Just hope there are no surprises or skeletons in the pillbox. PFE hasn't pulled Celebrex yet and the story will keep building until they do. It's kind of sad , but my 83 year old mother had to stop taking her Vioxx so I gave her some Celebrex that didn't work for me. Now she has lots of aches and pains , but thankfully didn't have any bad reactions.
billyjoe

[jiesen]

yes, I agree.

I saw PFE down at 23 this morning and was _this_ close to scooping up some shares from the weak longs in their moment of panic. I hesitated and missed the chance though, but it's probably just as well... once they do announce they're pulling Celebrex and/or Bextra, we'll see 23 again, and probably even lower, though there's really no reason for PFE to be this low. If they're found to be at fault for every side effect of every drug they sell, pretty soon most of the pharmaceutical companies would have to close up shop. I don't think our county can afford that or would allow it to happen.

PFE is the world leader in the business and will not go down in flames over this.

[kingofthehill]

Larry Feinberg, Oracle Partners

Larry Feinberg knows healthcare, having covered it as an analyst for nine years and having spent 16 years running long-short healthcare hedge funds.

Knee-jerk healthcare funds should sit up and take note: “For a long time, the smartest thing for healthcare investors was always to be long. Not any more,” Mr Feinberg says. “The dichotomy between winners and losers has never been greater and there will be haves and have-nots in 2005 and 2006.”

The key shift, Mr Feinberg says, is the move to consumer-directed healthcare, which will cause higher co-pays and deductibles. With soaring costs coming under pressure from the government and individual healthcare consumers, “healthcare is no longer a blank cheque book”.

In Mr Feinberg's view, the haves are the companies that offer “must-have products”, while the have-nots are the pharmaceutical companies loaded with “me-too products”, for example, the six or seven different cholesterol drugs.

The good news is that the huge investment in biotech looks poised to explode, the bad news that the explosion of new drugs looks to be two or three years off. Mr Feinberg's fund is long “a few pharmaceuticals with must-have drugs, such as Novartis” and Bayer and “short everybody else”.

For 2005, Mr Feinberg is extremely bullish on Elan, the Irish biotech company that, with partner Biogen Idec, recently won approval for its Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug. “This is my candidate for the biggest drug of all time,” explains Mr Feinberg, saying Tysabri is at least twice as good as any other MS drug.


my price target on ELN is $40.00-45.00 in 2005 ... KING

[kingofthehill]

i dont like to edit my post.. the above is from the

The Financial Times Ltd 2004.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/955f6eda-52d0-11d9-8845-00000e2511c8.html

[billyjoe]

King,
When do you believe the move will start? What month will the drug hit the market?
billyjoe

[kingofthehill]

I like April options and July if thats what you are asking, the EDSS scores will be out at the earlist next month or April the latest.. these test scores will cause a run on the drug and the company will announce that they are sold out ...




here is a report from the 12/21/04 wall street journal

HEARD IN EUROPE
As Drug Titans Falter,
Midsize Rivals Gain
Cost Cuts, Narrower Focus
Help Smaller Competitors
Like Schering, Elan, Shire

By JEANNE WHALEN
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 22, 2004

LONDON -- While big pharmaceutical companies on both sides of the Atlantic suffer product failures and a dearth of innovation, a clutch of midsize drug makers has quietly been seeing better fortune.

Thanks to cost-cutting programs and a narrow focus on a few therapeutic areas, companies such as Ireland's Elan Corp., Schering AG of Germany and Shire Pharmaceuticals Group PLC of the U.K. have been bringing new products to market and enjoying some of their best financial results in years.

Not long ago, critics thought these midsize drug makers would get squeezed out of business as the rest of the industry consolidated into a handful of titans with huge research budgets and sales forces.

They have been proved wrong, at least so far. Instead of trying to compete head to head with the likes of Pfizer Inc. or GlaxoSmithKline PLC, midsize companies are mostly concentrating on diseases too small for their bigger rivals to target. Often, that means less competition, less price pressure and better treatment from regulators such as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which tend to approve drugs for underserved disease areas more quickly.

"We look at areas big pharma isn't in, where there's high need," says Matt Emmens, chief executive of Shire, which sells Adderall XR, the leading medicine for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and has just won FDA approval for a new drug for kidney failure.

To be sure, the picture with midsize companies is mixed. Some are performing poorly, and others are only beginning to turn around poor sales and profit figures. But at the best-performing companies, revenues are growing in the double digits and profit margins are widening. That compares with a profit squeeze at many big pharmaceutical companies, which have been under pressure to cut their drug prices and spend more on development of new medicines.

And while Merck & Co., Pfizer and AstraZeneca PLC face sharp criticism about the safety of their drugs, some of the most successful product launches in recent months have come from midsize producers, such as multiple sclerosis treatment Tysabri, developed by Elan and Biogen Idec Inc. of Cambridge, Massachusetts.

Investors seem to be taking note. While overall pharmaceutical stocks have fallen by about 8% over the past three months, based on Morgan Stanley data. Schering has risen by 13% and Shire by 4%. Elan, meanwhile, has soared 36% year-to-date thanks to the Tysabri approval, as well as anticipation of it. Elan's shares ended yesterday in Irish trading at €19.30 ($25.84), off 30 European cents. Schering's shares closed in Frankfurt at €55, off 29 cents. In London, Shire ended at £5.39 ($10.50 or €7.84), up six pence.

For many midsize drug makers, surviving has meant scaling down their grander ambitions of the past. Ten years ago, Schering was a classic German conglomerate, making fertilizers as well as pills. But in recent years it has sold a number of businesses, laid off thousands of employees and narrowed its drug development to four therapeutic areas.

With its new strategy in place, Schering aims to double sales in the crucial U.S. market to $2 billion (€1.49 billion) by 2006. To strengthen its lead in oral contraceptives, Schering last year launched consumer advertising for its birth-control pill Yasmin, helping double the product's sales and make it the top-selling oral contraceptive in the U.S. The company is also in the early stages of researching contraceptives for men.

Beyond birth control, Schering is hoping for FDA approval next month of a new treatment for bone metastases in breast-cancer patients, and longer term, for a new cancer drug in development with Novartis AG.

A cost-cutting program is also beginning to boost Schering's historically low operating profit margin, which will grow to about 15% this year from 14% last year. Schering aims to raise it to 18% by 2006.

Elan, too, is boosting its financial performance by narrowing its ambitions. The company nearly collapsed in 2002 after an accounting scandal, failed drug trials and bad acquisitions. Under new management Elan has sold off a number of businesses and focused on drugs to treat nervous-system disorders, autoimmune diseases and chronic pain. In addition to its recent success getting Tysabri approved for sale, Elan is hoping for FDA approval in the coming weeks for Prialt, a medicine for the kind of severe pain suffered by cancer and HIV patients.

Being smaller makes Elan more scientifically innovative, and better able to change course when things go wrong, says Elan Chief Executive Kelly Martin. Midsize pharmaceutical chiefs say their salespeople also have an easier time building relationships with doctors, since they sell only to a few specialists and not to general practitioners.

Some analysts sound a note of caution about midsize investments, saying they can be more easily hit by a product failure or another setback than their bigger rivals. "The advantage of midcap companies is also the disadvantage -- one drug can totally transform the picture," says Denise Anderson, a pharmaceutical analyst at Kepler Equities in Zurich.

That is certainly true at Shire. Sales are booming, thanks to the growing market for treating ADHD, but some investors are worried that could come to a halt when the company's patent for Adderall XR runs out in 2007. "Sales and earnings are growing double digits ... [but] it's not a stock we have big exposure to because of the uncertainties," says John Wilson, an investment director at investment fund firm Standard Life of Edinburgh, Scotland. Shire's Mr. Emmens says the company has enough new products in development to keep growing.

Write to Jeanne Whalen at jeanne.whalen@wsj.com1

[kingofthehill]

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2004/tc20041223_4349_tc177.htm


DECEMBER 23, 2004

LAB REPORT
By Catherine Arnst


A New Painkiller's Painful Path
In 1998, Irish pharma Elan bought an entire company to get its hands on a revolutionary drug. Now the FDA is finally poised to rule on it
Pain treatment is very much in the news lately, with reports that Merck's (MRK ) Vioxx, Pfizer's (PFE ) Celebrex, and now Bayer's (BAY ) Aleve may all increase the risk of heart attacks. It's ironic that Celebrex and Vioxx were originally developed to remove the risk of bleeding ulcers associated with ibuprofen, aspirin, and other over-the-counter pain medications. That both turned out to have their own worrisome side effects demonstrates how extremely difficult it is to develop new pain treatments. Given that some 50 million Americans are partially or totally disabled by chronic pain, the need couldn't be more dire.

Right now, almost all painkillers fall into two categories: aspirin and other nonsteroidal anti-inflammatories such as Aleve, and the so-called Cox-2 inhibitors that include Vioxx and Celebrex, all block pain-causing Cox enzymes that flood the body when a joint or muscle is inflamed. For very severe pain there are the opioids, such as morphine, codeine, and Oxycontin, which can cause extreme drowsiness and are open to being abused. There has been some success treating pain with antidepressants and epilepsy drugs, but their record is spotty. Consequently, drug researchers have been working for over a decade to come up with more effective treatments.

GASTROPOD JUICE. One of the first, called Prialt, is slated to receive a yea or nay from the Food & Drug Administration by the end of December. The product, made by Irish drug company Elan (ELN ), will be used only by the most severely debilitated pain victims, who have found no relief with morphine. Still, it's a breakthrough drug, and particularly interesting because of its source -- the poisonous venom of the tiny cone snail.

Prialt is also a cautionary tale of how difficult it can be to develop a new pain treatment. Researchers first discovered in the early 1980s that a protein in cone-snail venom was 1,000 times more effective than morphine at relieving pain and had the added benefit of not having any addictive potential.

By the mid-1990s a tiny biotech outfit, Neurex, had come up with a drug based on that protein. Originally called Ziconotide, it's the first of a new class of analgesics known as N-type calcium channel blockers, so-called because they block the calcium channels found at the end of nerve fibers. These channels facilitate the passage of the electrical pain signal from one nerve to another and up the spinal column to the brain. If the channel is blocked, the pain signal can't reach the brain.

THREE-YEAR DELAY. Because Ziconotide is so potent, it can't be taken as a pill or even a shot. Instead, it is pumped with a surgically implanted catheter directly into the fluid surrounding the spinal cord, a delivery method known as intrathecal infusion. The drug looked so promising in initial clinical trials that Elan acquired Neurex in 1998 for $741 million in stock. Elan filed for FDA approval in 2000, but there were some major problems with the design of the clinical trials. In particular, the FDA said the data weren't sufficient to determine what the proper dosage should be, a key issue with pain drugs.

Still, the FDA considered Ziconotide promising enough to grant it an "approvable letter," meaning the chance was strong that the agency would issue a formal approval if it got the requested data. "Once we worked through all the questions with the FDA, we realized there was no other way forward than to redo" the final, Phase 3 trial, says Dr. Lars Ekman, Elan's president for research and development. And that took another three years.

Last January, Elan was finally ready to reveal those Phase 3 results. In an article in the Journal of the American Medical Assn. (JAMA), researchers reported the drug achieved statistically significant pain relief for patients with cancer and AIDS, two diseases associated with intense pain. The company changed the drug's name to Prialt and resubmitted its application to the FDA in June. It also sought approval from the European Union. An EU advisory committee recommended approval in November, raising expectations that the FDA would give the drug a green light.

"DESPERATELY NEEDED." Prialt will likely never match the blockbuster sales of Celebrex, however. Dr. Michael H. Levy, director of the pain-management center at Fox Chase Cancer Center in Philadelphia, notes that it's meant for a very small group of patients for whom morphine is no longer effective and who can tolerate the intrathecal-delivery method. "In general, that's 1 in 100 or 1 in 1,000 patients who can't get good comfort and function with existing drugs," he points out.

Still, Prialt does end the long drought of new pain treatments that take aim at novel cellular targets. "I think this medication opens people's eyes to other categories of analgesics beyond the opioids," says Dr. Allen W. Burton, associate professor of pain medicine at M.D. Anderson Cancer Center in Houston. "New drugs are desperately needed." Certainly the millions of people worried about Vioxx, Celebrex, and Aleve can attest to that.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Arnst is a senior writer for BusinessWeek in New York
Edited by Patricia O'Connell

[stocks54]

Hello kingofthehill,

What's your opinion about Jan 07 options for ELN?

Regards,

[kingofthehill]

Hello kingofthehill,

What's your opinion about Jan 07 options for ELN?

Regards,


i like the $25.00 strike price less premium

ELN Elan Corp receives FDA approval for Prialt for severe chronic pain (26.40 +0.80) -- Update --

Co announced that the FDA has approved Prialt for the management of severe chronic pain in patients for whom intrathecal therapy is warranted, and who are intolerant of or refractory to other treatment, such as systemic analgesics, adjunctive therapies, or I.T. morphine. Prialt is expected to be available to physicians and patients in the U.S. in late Jan. Pricing will be published at that time. (Briefing.com note: see previous 11:34 comment for color.)

[kingofthehill]

ELN Elan Corp could earn $3.50-$4.00 in EPS in the next three years - Barron's (26.50 )

Barrons highlights Elan, which has partnered with BIIB to develop a recently FDA-approved treatment for multiple sclerosis called Tysabri . The fund manager interviewed by Barrons sees awesome potential for the drug. Elan was flying high around the turn of the century -- the stock hit $65 in 2001 -- only to crash and darn near burn the very next year as its shares sank to within a hair of $1. What did the co in, and murdered its stock, was fancy accounting for its numerous joint ventures that, when uncovered by The Wall Street Journal, triggered class action suits and an SEC probe. Both were settled this past fall. Elan's roughly 50% of the profits from Tysabri, the fund manager calculates, translates into 7.5 cents a share after tax for each $100 million in the drug's sales; as volume swells, so does the impact on earnings, scaling up to 10 cents a share per $100 million. Multiply 200,000 by $23,500, which is what a year's worth of Tysabri will cost, subtract discounts and price concessions to big payors, and one comes up with $4 bln in yearly sales within the next three years, which works out to $3.50-$4.00 a share for Elan. The fund manager is looking for a double in Elan this year.

[kingofthehill]

here is a copy of the full Barrons article drivig the stock move today

It was this increasingly harsh climate that prompted Larry Feinberg early last year in these columns to caution against committing your hard-earned money (or even your easily earned money, for that matter) to the big drug stocks. And how right he was. Larry runs Oracle Partners, a hedge fund specializing in just about everything to do with health care, and, last we asked, he was up 25% last year, and that's after the usual outrageous hedge fund fees. He sees no letup in the pressure on drug companies. On that score, heresy of heresies, he hazards that the Medicare legislation due to take effect next year may cause a decline -- repeat, decline -- in drug pricing for the first time ever.

The current untidy investment scene in health care is made to order, he avers, for someone who loves to play both sides of the market, as he does. For one reason or another, he thinks hospitals, drug distributors and prescription-benefit managers are destined to be among the laggards. And, while he not as bearish on the drug makers as he was -- their stocks have discounted an awful lot of the bad news -- he sees a great divide between the companies that have "me too" offerings and those that are blessed with "must have" drugs. As an example of the latter, he singles out Elan, an Irish company (ADS listed on the Big Board), of which Oracle, it may not surprise you to learn, owns a bundle.

Elan has partnered with Biogen Idec (which Larry recommended here at a much lower price and thinks still has plenty of room on the upside) to develop a recently FDA-approved treatment for multiple sclerosis -- MS -- called Tysabri (née Antegren) with, he believes, awesome potential. Elan was flying high around the turn of the century -- the stock hit 65 in '01 -- only to crash and darn near burn the very next year as its shares sank to within a hair of 1. What did the company in -- and murdered its stock -- was fancy accounting for its numerous joint ventures that, when uncovered by The Wall Street Journal, triggered class action suits and an SEC probe. Both were settled this past fall. Meanwhile, to keep afloat, the company did a corporate strip tease that saw assets shrink from $8 billion to slightly over $3 billion in a scant three years.

Its compromised past aside, Elan is not, to be frank, exactly our cup of tea. It's not earning any money and hasn't for the past few years. At first blush, anyway, finances are not a thing of beauty, although the company does boast a comforting stash of cash, the proceeds of that strip tease. The stock's already had a big run. And just about everything bullish about the company is on the come. But it does have a half interest in Tysabri and, by Larry's reckoning, that's pure gold.

He figures there are roughly 800,000 MS patients in the U.S. and Europe. Of these, 330,000-350,000 are on drug therapy and another 100,000 have had to quit therapy because of side effects or because the drugs didn't work.

Tysabri, Larry says, is twice as effective as anything now in use and has few side effects. Which is why he expects as many as a quarter of the 180,000 U.S. MS patients on drug therapy to switch to Tysabri by the end of this new year, and at least half by the end of '07. He expects Europe to give its official OK to the drug by midyear and acceptance there to follow the same pattern as in the U.S. Moreover, he anticipates something like 50,000 of the 450,000 MS sufferers here and in Europe now "untreated" to go on Tysabri, boosting the potential number of users to 200,000.

Elan 's roughly 50% of the profits from Tysabri, Larry calculates, translates into 7.5 cents a share after tax for each $100 million in the drug's sales; as volume swells, so does the impact on earnings, scaling up to 10 cents a share per $100 million. OK. Multiply 200,000 by $23,500, which is what a year's worth of Tysabri will cost, subtract discounts and price concessions to big payors, and Larry comes up with $4 billion in yearly sales within the next three years. Which, by his math, works out to $3.50-$4 a share for Elan .

Larry, we can attest, is exuberant but not irrational. The nice thing about his story is even if his estimates overshoot a bit, the numbers are still mighty impressive. We should note that the Street consensus is much more restrained in its forecasts and subdued in expectations for the stock, which is now 26 and change, up from 7 a year ago. Nothing daunted, Larry's looking for a double in Elan this year, as his vision of the company's earning power gradually gains currency and applications for Tysabri for diseases other than MS are explored.

E-mail comments to editors@barrons.com

[kingofthehill]

today Elan talked about how the new drug Tysabri is seeing wide use, they talked about the future...!!!!!!!!

READ THIS ......CAREFULLY ...YOU TELL ME WHAT YOU THINK ....

Q. You touched on the Alzheimer’s program a little earlier. I am wondering if you can give us an update on the timing and the enrollment of the vaccine trial? When should we expect to see some of that data and then anything you might have going on small molecules?

Kelly Martin ELAN CEO: O.K., I’ll frame that and Lars can go through where we are with the vaccine. We have four programs. Three of them are in pre-clinical: gamma and beta secretase and the active [vaccine – ACC 001] program are all in pre-clinical. We are making progress on all three. And the AAB program, Lars, perhaps you could go through those?

Dr. Lars Ekman ELAN: Yeah, we're about to finish the extended Phase I study. You have to remember that in Alzheimer’s disease you do not do Phase I studies as you would do in other diseases. You do it in patients. So there, we will finish that study which has been ongoing for now almost 18 months. We have 18 months of data in patients. We will start the Phase II in the first quarter of the coming year [he means 2005]. That will actually be two studies, one with 180 patients, and one with 30 patients in which we will study the image of the brain with the binding of the antibody to the plaques in the brain, which we are doing together with General Electric. So there will be altogether 210 patients in the study at the start. That will be an 18 month study with a one year interim look.

Question: [unclear] Is that ’05?

KM: Yes.
Question: Just a follow-up: is it reasonable to think that that may be sufficient for a regulatory filing or are you looking at having to do a full-blown Phase III?

KM: I’ll scare Lars by answering this. You know, it’s clearly an area that has enormous pressure: political [and] patient pressure. It’s also an area, however, – unlike other areas in the FDA like oncology and other things – where the perception of risk, or the willingness to take risk is almost zero. It will depend on the data, number one. And it will depend on where the Agency is vis-à-vis risk. It’s going to be improper to speculate, but clearly our job to deliver what we think is going to be very, very strong data. And then work with the Agency on the best path forward, as we have done with Tysabri and Prialt. But clearly, you know, the dimensions of this disease are geometrically growing. And the pressure on all of us to get “there” is very significant. I think that that pressure is not going to subside; it is going to go up. I don’t know Lars if you want to …

Q. When is the immunoconjugate [ACC-001] going to start Phase I?

KM: Sometime, we’re hoping sometime within the first six months of this year. We have done a lot of work on that and we are progressing that through the process, again getting all the “t”s crossed and the “i”s dotted. But, sometime in the first six months of this year.
// If you listen carefully to KM's remarks, and Lars' important comment about the one-year interim look, you see a path laid out before you

[kingofthehill]

Financial Times London

Pharmaceuticals Merck and Pfizer were two of the big busts in 2004, each shedding about a quarter of its value thanks to controversies surrounding blockbuster drugs Vioxx and Celebrex. While 2005 may not hold more such blowups, it is not likely to be a banner year because of several ill winds heading toward the healthcare industry.

First, while Big Pharma companies have invested heavily in biotechnology, the pipelines for the next two years look woefully short on blockbuster drugs to boost earnings. Meanwhile, a lot of political pressure is about to be exerted to squeeze costs out of the healthcare system just as rising costs for individuals may constrain spending as well.

In this inhospitable environment, few US pharmaceutical companies will perform strongly. As Larry Feinberg of Oracle Partners suggested in FT Wealth's recent 2005 outlook, the companies that will hold up are those offering "must have" drugs, such as Switzerland's Novartis and Ireland's Elan Pharmaceuticals.

Elan's stock has soared this year after recovering from near-bankruptcy and with high hopes for Tysabri, its new multiple sclerosis drug.

While the stock is consolidating after a big move, if Tysabri proves to be the blockbuster it appears to be Elan may well be a strong performer.

Of course, these unfavourable comparisons do not mean US stocks must fall off a cliff in 2005 - they may underperform other markets but other sectors should hold up well. But the examples here have parallels in nearly every industry. In steel, for instance, US Steel has had a strong run and while it trades with a modest 10 P/E, it does not compare with, say, Korea's Posco, a well-run steel company with a forward P/E below 5.

With these opportunities, to refrain from going overseas is the greater risk.

[kingofthehill]

take a look at the latest info on competing MS drugs,

go to http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[kingofthehill]

last chance to place your bets..the word is getting out, and the play is ELN who own 50% of all Tysabri profits. I really dont care that Elan is not mention it makes for nice entry point for new dollars. the stock is only $5.00 above its April 2004 price

Todays Barrons

BIIB New MS drug may boost Biogen's fortunes - Barron's Online (67.11 )

Barron's Online highlights Biogen Idec, suggesting its new multiple sclerosis (MS) drug Tysabri may bring happier times. "If we overcome barriers to treatment, we will be on our way to placing Tysabri as a number- one treatment," CEO James Mullen said. Meanwhile, Biogen's pipeline has several early-stage experimental cancer drugs. And it's trying to find more uses for Rituxan, the cancer drug Biogen markets with Genentech. "We believe Biogen will be one of the most compelling large-cap biotech stories of 2005," wrote Mike King, an analyst with BofA. At 67, the shares are just 3% below their 52-w high. But the stock "does not fully reflect the potential for Tysabri," says Sam Isaly, a principal at OrbiMed Advisors, which recently bought Biogen shares. At 41.5x projected profits over the next 4 quarters, Biogen hardly looks cheap by traditional standards. It just barely trades below its 5-year median of 43.7x forward profits. David Webber, an analyst with First Albany, says Biogen deserves a P/E multiple of 45x. Multiplied by his estd profits of $1.76 a share in 2005, that produces a tgt price of 79.

[Michaelk005]

Hey King, You posted a while back on IPXL, I am currently holding this stock. Whats your take on it, you like a $25 buy out.. I dont know if im soo sure your price is high enough..

[spikefader]

FYI King. Thought you'd want to know. Looking for short (http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=11738&postcount=1947)tomorrow.

[kingofthehill]

someone will buy IPXL, many players need a good generic drug maker, im just holding it and buying it and good dips


Thanks Spike for the headsup

options week will be fun for ELN


From the S.G. Cowen Multiple Sclerosis Physician Consulting Conference Call
Some comments from Dr. Ellen Lathi, MD, member of the team at the MS Center at St. Elizabeth’s Medical Center,

Tufts University School of Medicine, Brighton, Massachusetts.

In this center they have already already infused about 50 patients. Some already on their 2nd dose. They are going to infuse another 10-15 between now and next Tuesday. She heard that in a very large MS center in the South they are going to have 1000 or more patients on Tysabri,

The infusion process going extremely well, no big reactions. So mild that the patients wondering if they are gettting the drug or just water.

"Everyone wants Tysabri, people are chomping at the bit for it because of the convenience, because of the once-a-month. They know there is not the flu-like symptoms. Even our people who don't have much flu-like symptoms think that they lose part of a day from the fatigue after the interferon. So people really want it. So I think most newly diagnosed patients are opting for it."
***
all three MS physicians on the conference call expect that about half of their patients will be on Tysabri after a year.

***

[spikefader]

Another channel hit today - in your favor.

[kingofthehill]

Tysabri Launch Proceeding On Plan
On Friday, we hosted a conference call with three multiple sclerosis (MS) experts to
discuss the ongoing launch of Biogen Idec’s and Elan’s Tysabri. None of our three
consultants (one academic, two community based) had prior experience with
Tysabri in clinical trials, yet all three were well aware of the drug’s attributes and
have begun prescribing Tysabri to their patients. Physicians noted that awareness of
Tysabri amongst physicians and patients was extremely high, that reimbursement
and infusion access have not been substantial barriers to uptake, and that they each
intend to use Tysabri in over 50% of their patients within 2 years time. Perhaps most
surprising is that physicians are keen to use Tysabri in combination with other MS
therapies (despite an absence of robust data supporting additive efficacy) and that
reimbursement has not put a damper on such use. We believe use of Tysabri in
combination with beta interferons is tracking well ahead of Street expectations and
could be a significant positive for Biogen Idec’s Avonex franchise. Overall, the
conference call increased our conviction that Tysabri will be a very substantial drug
in the long term and indicated Tysabri’s early launch may be proceeding better than
some expect. Results (expected shortly) from our monthly tracking survey of 39
multiple sclerosis physicians should provide a broader view of Tysabri’s early
launch.
Initial Impressions Of Tysabri Are Highly Positive
Physician sentiment towards Tysabri appears strongly positive. Our consultants
indicated that during the months before the drug’s launch, excitement had been
building, and that the release of one year results from the AFFIRM study in
November 2004 created substantial buzz in the MS community. Although we chose
to host a call with physicians who did not participate in Tysabri’s Phase III trials, all
three were very familiar with Tysabri’s attributes and admitted to watching the
drug’s development for the past 2+ years. Adding to their knowledge of Tysabri was
the fact that two of the three physicians had attended CME sessions sponsored by
Biogen Idec over the past 1-2 months. It was also clear from our conversations that
Tysabri is not a drug that will require substantial detailing on BIIB’s part. Each of the
physicians was a strong believer in Tysabri’s benefits versus other MS therapies and
each noted that the patient community had been galvanized by the drug’s launch.
Thus far, physicians indicated having prescribed Tysabri to 4, 6, and 50 patients,
although not all of these patients have started infusions.
Biogen Idec
January 17, 2005 3
Tysabri Versus The Competition
Our consultants shared similar views on the pros and cons for Tysabri versus other
existing treatments. Most cited higher efficacy, a clean side effect profile, less
frequent dosing, and the ability to combine Tysabri with other therapies as positive
factors driving uptake. In terms of the biggest perceived negatives associated with
Tysabri, physicians cited the lack of lack of long-term safety and efficacy data, the
need for infusion services, development of neutralizing antibodies in a minority
(roughly 10%) of patients, higher pricing, and the need for good patient compliance.
On this later point, physicians noted that due to Tysabri’s mechanism of action,
missing an infusion by more than a few days could leave a patient susceptible to
potential relapse. In contrast, patients who discontinue or delay beta interferon
treatment are thought to be “covered” by an efficacy tail that may last two to three
months. Hence at least one physician has put into place a new system to ensure
timely dosing of Tysabri. Given the relatively infrequent administration of Tysabri
(1x ever four weeks versus 1-7x per week for interferons or Copaxone), we believe
patient compliance is not a substantial concern.
Counter Marketing Efforts Have Left Little Impression On
Physicians
Our consultants indicate that Biogen Idec sales representatives have modestly
increased the frequency their details to 1-2 visits per month to promote the benefits
of Tysabri (and to a lesser extent Avonex). Biogen Idec was also praised for providing
good educational and financial support, particularly in helping physicians set up
infusion centers and tackle reimbursement concerns. Given our physicians highly
positive views on Tysabri, it may not be surprising that they view counter -
marketing measures by competitors as weak and misdirected. Our consultants note
that efforts by Serono have been fairly negative and primarily centered around petty
arguments which are largely irrelevant or untrue. Teva has chosen to focus on
Copaxone’s lower cost, and to downplay the importance of inflammatory processes
in the progression of MS (consultants were not receptive to either argument).
Meanwhile, Betaseron reps were termed “quiet” on the Tysabri issue. Representatives
of other products have also pushed physicians to continue treating stable and well
cared for patients with existing therapies as opposed to switching to Tysabri.
Although physicians report that some stable patients have asked to be switched,
they are not inclined to do so.
Early Dosing Experience Has Been Positive
Our consultants are in agreement that Tysabri (monotherapy) will be the treatment
of choice for the majority of treatment-naïve MS patients. Our consultant with the
most experience using Tysabri commercially (50 patients on drug) indicates that
after detailing the positives and negatives of the various available MS treatments, all
but one of her patients has chosen Tysabri. The patient who chose interferon
therapy did so because of Tysabri’s “unproven commercial track record”, but
nonetheless switched to Tysabri after 2 weeks of interferon therapy. One of our
consultants noted that a minority of naïve patients (those presenting with severe
disease) are candidates for starting therapy on Tysabri plus beta interferon.
Consultants have treated patients in a variety of settings. The consultant affiliated
with an academic center has extensive infusion capabilities in house which were
established in anticipation of strong demand for Tysabri. One community physician


FROM A VERY EXPENSIVE REPORT RELEASED THIS WEEK ...ON TYSABRI

[Websman]

Sounds like it may be time for me to buy and hold ELN

[bec1nj]

Boy, after all this I can feel like one of those drug reps that educates the doctors! Thanks for all your detailed posts, and I am rooting for ELN.
Bruce

[bec1nj]

Sorry if this information is in an earlier post by someone else, kingofthehill, but I am a mutual fund aficionado and there is a very small fund called the Bruce Fund (no relation to me!-symbol BRUFX) that is starting to get more and more publicity---its managers are believers in Elan and it (Elan) has been mentioned in some articles about the fund and its holdings.
Bruce

[kingofthehill]

Biogen & Elan give 4th quarter updates Feb 8th & 9th ..the latest down turn is just part of the Biotech turn, Tysabri will lead the way for these 2 companies

here is something posted on another board about Elan

4% and other thoughts
by: elanalum
Long-Term Sentiment: Strong Buy 01/24/05 04:38 pm
Msg: 523286 of 523397

Elanians,

As my prior posts indicate, I'm an ex-employee, over a decade at ELN. I thought a number of comments were worth reflecting:

1. Tixx's data indicates Tys has 4% of NRX in the MS market at the end of four weeks. That is simply awsome. It translates to at least $150M in sales. Consider further that our NRX is 25% of the vaunted Rebif...and Rebif has been out for how long???!!!

2. EDSS data, while us investors want the data now, I think the AAN in April in Miami is more likely. Why? Let's assume the data is on line with the one year? Then why put it out outside an appropriate medical setting? All you do is drive demand to a level where supply might be an issue. Why do I assume the data is in-line? If it was worse it would probably be material and forced disclosure by now because the data is in house. Beyond that, how much better could it be?

3. Future competition: They NVS drug may be interesting. Our P2 data was exciting too. But, it's a long way from here to there. We've all learned that.

4. AD...it remains the big bet and Dale and his team are the best in the business. I am personally cautiously optimistic that we will see some data that reflects the therapeutic affect of our compounds. If so, the future will be quite nice indeed for investors and patients.

So, the day to day may cause much agita, and I think some of the PPS projections may be bullish, but overall, I certainly can't think of a better investment and the initial MS scripts are backing that up!

Eric

the site refers to http://www.tixx.com/elan.htm

[kingofthehill]

from NCB brokerage report this morning released in Ireland

Physician uptake points to strong Tysabri launch
* At an investor conference yesterday BiogenIdec management updated on the launch of Tysabri. It was reported that as of January 15th, 1,600 physicians had prescribed Tysabri to at least one of their patients, which is an increase of 300 physicians on the 1,300 clinicians reported the previous week. These physicians are reported to be within the targeted group of 6,000 neurologists who write the majority of scrips and are therefore likely to have written multiple prescriptions. Whilst there is likely to be a lag (likely to be several weeks in length) between prescribing and administration of the first Tysabri infusion to a new patient as the reimbursement process is navigated, the wide breath of clinician usage so soon after launch is indicative of a very strong launch.
* BiogenIdec targeted 1,000 infusions being achieved over the first 60 days post Tysabri launch, which should clearly be significantly beaten. Our forecasts for patients on Tysabri by end of January are 1,500, by end March 6,500 and 14,000 by end of June. We expect that both BiogenIdec and Elan management's will update at the upcoming Q4 results presentations (February 7th & 8th) on the number of patients on Tysabri as of the end of January and the number of prescriptions written.
* Given we are towards the top of the market for Tysabri expectations (and our early numbers appear too low) the strong launch bodes very well for upgrades to Tysabri forecasts. If the 2-year Tysabri data (disability and relapse data) due from late-February is positive (as we expect) the strong early traction of Tysabri should be amplified.
* Our forecasts for Tysabri in MS assume sales peaking in 2009 with 42% market penetration in the US by this time point and 36% penetration in the Rest of the World (RoW) markets. Our 2007 revenue forecasts drive EPS of $1.60 - suggesting that the stock is currently trading on 16.5x 2007 earnings. We reiterate our BUY rating and price target of $37, which is supported by both earnings and DCF based valuation analyses.

Summary of our Tysabri forecasts by MS patient subgroup (three main groups)
New MS sufferers presenting for treatment (c.10,000 per year)
* 3,000 take Tysabri in 2005 and 4,000 per year to 2009
Patients switching from other therapies (c.10-15% stop or switch each year)
* c.30% of patients have switched to Tysabri by 2008
Relapsing remitting MS sufferers currrently not treated
* 7,000 take Tysabri in 2005 and 9,000 in 2006-2008

Of our 2007 Tysabri forecast
- 47% of patients are new or currently untreated patients."

[kingofthehill]

In a note on BIIB today SG Cowen raises sales estimates for Tysabri in 2006-2009 to $1,25Bill (0,6B), $2,4B(1,2B), $3,3B(1,7B) and $4,0B(2,4B) or around 100 % .
They recommend buying BIIB due to Tysabri

[kingofthehill]

next week is the week Elan starts to talk about how big this drug is going to be, watch Biogen & Elan as they will both rise ..THIS NEW DRUG IS HUGE ANYONE WITH MS SHOULD BE TAKING IT ...

NCB reiterates $37 target price with the following report:

Focussing on Tysabri’s launch
•Elan will report Q4 and FY 2004 results before the market opens on Tuesday February 8 th . For the quarter we expect total sales of $121.1m with $97.1m (+32% y-o-y) from retained product lines (See page 2 for detailed forecasts). Our EPS forecast is -$0.26 before exceptional items. As in recent quarters the results remain of secondary interest with the focus primarily on Tysabri’s US launch for MS. In addition the company’s plans for the US launch of Prialt will also likely be highlighted.
•With IMS data not accurately picking up Tysabri prescriptions (due to its hospital and specialty distribution channels) the market is reliant on updates from both the BiogenIdec and Elan managements for details of the product’s launch. With BiogenIdec reporting and hosting a conference call after the market close on Monday, 7th February, much of the relevant launch detail
is likely to be provided at this point. As we understand it both companies aim to provide details of the number of prescriptions written for Tysabri and the number of patients infused as of the end of January. In aggregate these data should allow a clear assessment of the initial demand and whether the product uptake is tracking in-line with our expectations.
•The most recent update on Tysabri’s launch reported that as of January 15th, 1,600 physicians had prescribed Tysabri to at least one of their patients. This was an increase of 300 physicians on the 1,300 clinicians reported the previous week. Whilst there is likely to be a lag (likely to be several weeks in length) between prescribing and administration of the first Tysabri infusion to a new patient as the reimbursement process is navigated, the wide breath of clinician usage so soon after launch is indicative of a very strong launch. Our forecasts for MS patients on Tysabri by end of January are 1,500, by end March 6,500 and 14,000 by the end of June 2005.
•Management may be in a position to comment on whether factors such as infusion access and reimbursement of Tysabri mono- and combination therapy are proving a significant delay to patient uptake. In addition feedback relating to the demand for Tysabri from the various subgroups among MS patients (new patients, switching patients, previous therapy failures or nïave patients), may be provided.
•Financial guidance for 2005 is anticipated with the results. The previous guidance was for Elan to be cashflow positive in H2 2005. With significant launches planned in 2005 [Tysabri’s launch in the US for MS (on-going), Prialt in the US and Europe and the anticipated european launches of Tysabri for MS and Crohn’s disease in H2 2005] guidance for the launch costs and related infrastructure plans will be of interest.
•The post results conference call is at 13.30 BST, dial in +1 212-676 4900 for non-US callers and +800 621 5170 for US callers.

[kingofthehill]

this is HUGE HUGE HUGE READ THIS LINK

http://www.fhcrc.org/pubs/center_news/2005/feb3/sart1.html

[Michaelk005]

Great article and great news. Im pumped up to see the spreadsheet on tues. I thought id also say look what NRPH has done in the last month. Im kicken myself for not picken up shares at $12..

[kingofthehill]

02/07 19:41 DJ UPDATE: Biogen Idec CEO: Tysabri Reception Strong So Far
By Paula L. Stepankowsky Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

LONGVIEW, Wash. (Dow Jones)--Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) is seeing strong demand for its new multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri since the product's introduction in November, with between 2,000 to 3,000 patients already receiving it, Chief Executive James Mullen said Monday.

As a result, the Cambridge, Mass., biotech company is continuing to work on its own manufacturing plants, as well as with several contract manufacturers, to ensure an adequate supply of the drug, Mullen said on a conference call with analysts following release of the company's fourth-quarter and full-year earnings.

"We're planning for a very successful product launch," Mullen said on the call. "We're planning manufacturing to keep pace with growing product demand."

Mullen said the company should be able to deal with the expected growth that could see up to 40,000 patients on Tysabri by the end of 2005.

The launch of Tysabri heightens competition in the MS treatment market. Biogen Idec already makes an MS drug, Avonex, which competes with Rebif, made by Serono SA (SRA); Copaxone, made by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (TEVA); and Betaseron, made by Shering AG (SHR).

After the market closed Monday, Biogen Idec reported fourth-quarter net income of $48.4 million, or 14 cents a share, including merger charges related to the acquisition of Idec Pharmaceuticals and a one-time write-down for certain investments. That's a reversal from a year-earlier net loss of $990.6 million, or $4.03 a share.

Revenue rose to $586 million from $299.8 million a year earlier, beating the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call of $563.8 million.

Excluding charges, Biogen Idec earned $121.4 million, or 34 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, below the mean estimate of 36 cents a share by analysts surveyed by First Call.

It's possible Tysabri revenue available to Biogen Idec in three years could equal that of Avonex at the end of 2004, Mullen said. In 2004, Avonex revenue totaled $1.42 billion.

Biogen Idec is developing and marketing Tysabri in partnership with Elan Corp PLC (ELN).

Based on how the partnership is structured, Biogen Idec will get about half the revenue Elan gets from Tysabri sold in the U.S., said Peter Kellogg, Biogen Idec's chief financial officer in an interview following the call.

Assuming Tysabri is approved for sale outside the U.S., Biogen Idec would record 100% of the revenue and Elan would record 50% of the profits, Kellogg said.

Biogen Idec continues to compete fiercely with Serono's Rebif for market share. Avonex, Biogen Idec's older MS drug, has the leading share in the U.S., while Rebif is the market leader in international markets.

A two-year trial pitting Rebif and Tysabri against one another has just begun. Both companies are also working on oral versions of MS drugs. Currently, MS drugs must be injected or infused.

Kellogg said it's too early to come to any conclusions as oral applications are still in early stage development.

While Wall Street is interested to know how well Tysabri is being received, investors are also wondering to what degree Tysabri may cannibalize Avonex sales.

On the call, Mullen said the company is seeing more interest from physicians in using both drugs in combination than anticipated.

Given the costs associated with launching Tysabri, Biogen Idec said it anticipates low double-digit growth for revenue and adjusted earnings in 2005 on a non-generally accepted accounting principals basis.

It said it estimates its 2005 non-GAAP earnings per share will be in the range of $1.60 to the low $1.70s. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial estimate the company's 2005 operating earnings will be a mean of $1.71.

[kingofthehill]

Drug Co. Elan Reports Narrower Losses

AP Online
08:41 a.m. 02/08/2005


DUBLIN, Ireland, Feb 08, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- Elan Corp. PLC, the Irish pharmaceutical company, reported reduced losses for the fourth quarter on Tuesday and forecast a return to profit in 2006.

For the fourth quarter ending Dec. 31, Elan posted a net loss of $88.2 million compared to $307.5 million for the same quarter in 2003.

Revenue fell to $123.8 million for the quarter from $138.2 million a year earlier.

Elan's full-year net loss for 2004 was $375.9 million versus $508.7 million in 2003. Full-year revenue fell to $481.7 million from $685.6 million in 2003, reflecting the company's substantial selloff of licenses and retreat from peripheral joint ventures.

Elan executives emphasized their high hopes for the multiple sclerosis-fighting drug Tysabri, a joint venture between Elan and Biogen Idec Inc. of Cambridge, Mass. The drug received accelerated approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration after trials demonstrated that it slowed down or prevented relapses in most MS sufferers.

"While it is early days, the initial take-up since the launch of Tysabri is exceeding all our expectations and we remain optimistic that we will return to profitability by the end of 2006," said Chief Financial Officer Shane Cooke.

Kelly Martin, president and chief executive, said "2004 was an extraordinary year for Elan, with two Elan innovations - Tysabri for multiple sclerosis, and Prialt for severe chronic pain - approved in the U.S., with both therapies advancing in the regulatory process in Europe."

Multiple sclerosis, which has no known cure, attacks and damages nerve tissue, leaving people tired and numb with poor coordination and blurred vision. Without warning, a relapse can erase vision, turn a working arm or leg useless, or numb feeling below the waist.

In 2002, Elan came close to bankruptcy after suffering failed drugs trials, souring acquisitions and an accounting scandal. Under new management, the company has sold off peripheral operations and drugs licenses and concentrated on core research on treatments for chronic pain and nervous system disorders.

---

[kingofthehill]

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/704e1404-80b4-11d9-adb4-00000e2511c8.html

Elan, the Dublin-listed drugs company, was up 4.5 per cent €22 after it said a clinical trial of Tysabri, the multiple sclerosis treatment it is developing with Biogen Idec, had achieved its aims. The companies said the drug led to a 42 per cent reduction in the risk of disability progression in patients with relapsing forms of the condition.

[spikefader]

Hey King.
Thought I'd do make some pictures for ya. My thoughts fwiw.
Good luck.

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050228/ms_drug_suspension_10.html

king, I hope you're ok!

[spikefader]

:-( That sux. Sad day for the forum.

[New-born baby]

King,

I am sorry things have turned downward today. I wish you always and only the best. I hope you had a trailing stop. I feel sick thinking about it.

[stocks54]

It sucks never thought something like this will happen.

[jiesen]

King,

I am sorry things have turned downward today. I wish you always and only the best. I hope you had a trailing stop. I feel sick thinking about it.

Unfortunately, a stop is useless in this situation. The stock opened at 8.85 today, not very far from what it is now.

Always remember that even with a stop, you're at risk of a big gap down.

[mrmarket]

Hang in there, King. You've been a great contributor on this board.

[spikefader]

Unfortunately, a stop is useless in this situation. The stock opened at 8.85 today, not very far from what it is now.

Always remember that even with a stop, you're at risk of a big gap down.
jiesen, have to disagree my friend. Stops can work in PREmarket (if you've got them activated to do so). And stops are never useless. They always do what they're told to do. And if they don't you may have recourse to your broker for not activating your stop as ordered.

If you have premarket market order stop on ELN today, you may have gotten out at 26.76 (where it opened at 8am premarket time). I say may. More likely you would have gotten slippage down 25.00. Looking at the time and sales, it wasn't a dead fast drop, and there were pauses on the way down, which tells me that it wasn't just a pure selling drop. Like most premarket tankers, it takes some time to get down there before the opening price.

Bottom line, a stop out at 25.00 is much much better than 8.88, where it currently sits. Lesson: Use of premarket stops for ELN today would have saved you a lot of money.

[jiesen]

jiesen, have to disagree my friend. Stops can work in PREmarket (if you've got them activated to do so). And stops are never useless. They always do what they're told to do. And if they don't you may have recourse to your broker for not activating your stop as ordered.


Ok, I stand corrected. I hadn't considered pre-market stops. But I also think that trading in the extended hours is a whole other ball of wax, that not everyone is ready for.

Still, a regular-market stop (like I or many here would be most likely to use) would have failed to prevent most of that $18 drop today.

I think the best use of stops is if you intend to trade stocks for just brief periods intraday. Then you minimize the possiblilty of a gap wiping out your position- despite the stop.

[spikefader]

Ok, I stand corrected. I hadn't considered pre-market stops. But I also think that trading in the extended hours is a whole other ball of wax, that not everyone is ready for.

Still, a regular-market stop (like I or many here would be most likely to use) would have failed to prevent most of that $18 drop today.

I think the best use of stops is if you intend to trade stocks for just brief periods intraday. Then you minimize the possiblilty of a gap wiping out your position- despite the stop.
Yes, extended hours trading is a whole different ball of wax, one that I'd recommend everyone at least know of so that they can weigh up whether to use them.

Yes, regular market stops would have given quite a bite to an account today with ELN. And this example today highlights how critical the right type of stop can be. In hindsight, one can say, I would have prefered a premarket stop to get me out at 25.00. But if the drop was temporary and the stock took off, that same person would be cursing their bad luck, stopped out at 25.00 only to see the stock rise to 30.00. But in my humblest opinion, I think it's much better to protect yourself and use premarket stops, than to throw caution to the wind. But that's just me. If the position of the trade is small enough and you are well hedge, you might not want to use a stop, and just let the cards fall where they may, and perhaps risk the entire position going to zero. Where is ELN headed? I have a few thoughts on it, and based on my gap down target theory, it's in big trouble and in jeopardy of going to zero. A really good play now is to buy puts for ELN - say 6 months out, and out of the money. I would strongly recommend anyone sticking long with ELN to consider those puts for insurance. They won't cost much and should pay nicely. If the stock rebounds, the loss of the puts won't hurt much. But holding a long that dribbles down to nothing over the next 6 months will be agony.

[jiesen]

Yes, extended hours trading is a whole different ball of wax, one that I'd recommend everyone at least know of so that they can weigh up whether to use them.

Yes, regular market stops would have given quite a bite to an account today with ELN. And this example today highlights how critical the right type of stop can be. In hindsight, one can say, I would have prefered a premarket stop to get me out at 25.00. But if the drop was temporary and the stock took off, that same person would be cursing their bad luck,

--- EXACTLY! ---

stopped out at 25.00 only to see the stock rise to 30.00. But in my humblest opinion, I think it's much better to protect yourself and use premarket stops, than to throw caution to the wind. But that's just me. If the position of the trade is small enough and you are well hedge, you might not want to use a stop, and just let the cards fall where they may, and perhaps risk the entire position going to zero. Where is ELN headed? I have a few thoughts on it, and based on my gap down target theory, it's in big trouble and in jeopardy of going to zero. A really good play now is to buy puts for ELN - say 6 months out, and out of the money. I would strongly recommend anyone sticking long with ELN to consider those puts for insurance. They won't cost much and should pay nicely. If the stock rebounds, the loss of the puts won't hurt much. But holding a long that dribbles down to nothing over the next 6 months will be agony.

I agree 100%, and I think buying puts against a position you can't stomach dropping to 0 is a great way to protect yourself, and more likely to save your butt than a stop.

[New-born baby]

Spike, Jiesen, all

ELN borrowed something like $55 million for this drug to make it. The company was in debt before, and it looks possible that ELN may not survive. Certainly this is not the time to buy ELN long. Now if I had just shorted it on Friday . . . .

[jiesen]

ELN just cracked the $8 support.

[kingofthehill]

I am still alive, time for a stiff drink!


__ wall Street Journal
Analysts React to Tysabri Withdrawal
February 28, 2005 5:06 p.m.

Analysts responded fast to the announcement from Biogen Idec and Elan that the drug makers are voluntarily withdrawing their multiple-sclerosis treatment, Tysabri. Biogen sank 43% and partner Elan crashed 70%.

Most analysts said the potential loss of a blockbuster medicine will hit Biogen sharply, and is even worse news for Elan . Several analyst note there is a chance the drug could return to the market -- and one even upgraded Biogen. Here's more of what analysts had to say. (Some comments were edited. Analyst disclosures follow.)

* * *
This is a disaster for Elan. Even if it is found that [the problem] is only related to the combination with Avonex or is not caused by Tysabri at all, we believe the damage will already have been done, in marketing terms. We believe it is now unlikely that Tysabri will ever reach our peak sales of $3.1 billion in 2009. … Tysabri represents all of our valuation, and is Elan 's path to profitability and positive cash flow. Without blockbuster Tysabri sales, it may be difficult for Elan to pay off its $650 million debt in 2008.

-- Merrill Lynch analyst Erica Whittaker, who retained her "neutral" rating on Elan until she receives further information.

* * *
While we are currently unsure as to the potential for Tysabri to re-enter the market, it is clear that even if the drug is re-introduced Tysabri's sales potential is likely to be harmed from a marketing perspective. … In our opinion, we expect FDA to demand additional data to determine at what rate the neurological problems occur and if the safety problem occurs with single agent use as well. Thus, we believe that Tysabri will be removed from the market for a period of time with the potential to re-enter some time in the future.

-- Eric J. Ende, an analyst at Merrill, who downgraded Biogen Idec to "neutral" from "buy," citing significant sales and growth risk

* * *
In light of today's announcement, we are downgrading Biogen Idec from an "overweight" to a "neutral" recommendation. At this time, we believe the companies are taking a very cautious stance by suspending further marketing of the drug, as a result of the recent and well publicized FDA concerns over drug safety. We believe that Tysabri can still re-enter the market and become a significant revenue driver for Biogen Idec, however the timing of its re-entry and whether any restrictions are placed on its use, still has to be determined.

-- Ronald Renaud Jr. of J.P. Morgan

* * *
Until we get greater clarity on the circumstances surrounding Tysabri's future, we are compelled to downgrade the stock to "underperform" given that valuation is highly correlated with Tysabri prospects.

-- Mark Schoenebaum of Bear Stearns

* * *
We believe that Tysabri, if it were to relaunch, would have substantially diminished prospects. Our earnings-per-share estimates and price target are under review. We would expect the stock to trade like "broken" biotech stocks [such as Chiron].

-- Mark Augustine, analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston, who downgraded Biogen Idec to "neutral" from "outperform" and has an $80 price target

* * *
While the adverse events occurred with long-term combo with Avonex, we do not know at this point whether they relate to the Tysabri component or negative synergism of the two agents.

-- CIBC World Markets analyst Bret Holley, who downgraded Biogen Idec to "sector performer" and values the shares, without Tysabri, at about $40 each

* * *
In our view, we do not expect further clarification in the near- to medium-term on the regulatory/commercial status of Tysabri and are assuming a conservative stance by removing Tysabri sales from our financial projections.

-- Deutsche Bank analyst Jennifer Chao, who downgraded Biogen Idec to "sell" from "buy" and set a new price target of $38 per share

* * *
At the current price, we think the market has more than fully discounted Tysabri, creating potential upside movement on evidence of healthy Avonex sales and clarification of the pathway to relaunch, even if restricted, of Tysabri.

-- First Albany's David Webber, who lowered his price target on Biogen Idec to $44 from $76, but maintained his "buy" rating

* * *
We believe that Biogen Idec's liability risk related to Tysabri is low. The drug was pulled from the US market after only three months, minimizing risk to patients on commercial drug. Liability risk from patients involved in clinical trials is also low due to Biogen Idec and Élan's history of conducting appropriate clinical trials….

-- Bennett Weintraub, analyst for Hibernia Southcoast Capital, in upgrading Biogen to "buy" from "hold," while reducing the price target to $47 from $61

* * *
Tysabri has become an important contributor to Biogen Idec's market value. Therefore, interruptions in the launch for the multiple-sclerosis drug, or disappointing two-year clinical data from U.S. trials of Tysabri in Crohn's disease, could have a negative impact on the stock.

--Prudential Equity Group's John Sonnier, who reiterated his "overweight" rating and $78 price target on shares of Biogen Idec

* * *
At this point our information is limited, however we wanted to give investors an evaluation of the worst-case scenario, which would be zero Tysabri revenues going forward. That said, since we do not know all of the information about these patients and their circumstances, it is hard at this point to determine Tysabri's future.

-- PiperJaffray analyst Mark Karvosky, who has an "outperform" rating and $80 price target for Biogen Idec

* * *
We have few details on the decision to remove Tysabri from the market, and until there are more details on the probability of reintroducing the drug, the long-term implications are difficult to assess. That said, Tysabri is the major driver of Biogen Idec growth, and removing it completely from our model lowers 2007 earnings per share from around $3 to around $2.

-- Steven Harr, analyst at Morgan Stanley, who rates the stock "overweight"

* * *
Biogen Idec commented that the decision to withdraw Tysabri was made with FDA consent. The drug is likely to face multiple challenges in returning to market including a conservative regulatory environment [and] a dearth of existing longterm safety data…. Biogen Idec's strategy for reintroducing Tysabri is unclear. Should Tysabri be reintroduced, physicians and patients are likely to be very cautious in returning to the therapy.

-- SG Cowen analyst Eric Schmidt, who estimates Biogen Idec's shares are worth between $34 and $42

* * *
On balance, we think it seems more than likely that [Tysabri] doesn't get back on the market, because the Food and Drug Administration doesn't encourage withdrawals unless the related safety issue is severe. At least we expect the drug to have a restricted label if it comes back to market with a label limiting it to monotherapy use.

-- Sam Williams, analyst in London with Lehman Brothers who covers Swiss company Serono, which produces a rival MS drug

* * *
We remain positive on Elan 's fundamental outlook driven by Tysabri's compelling commercial potential. However, despite a positive bias on the near-medium term catalyst front, rich valuation continues to dictate a less aggressive stance on the stock.

-- Richard Silver, analyst at Lehman, who rates Elan at "equal-weight" with a price target of $31

--Compiled by Worth Civils


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analyst Disclosures

• Merrill Lynch acts as a market maker for Biogen Idec and Elan and has received compensation from the companies for non-investment banking services or products within the past 12 months. The firm expects to receive or intends to seek compensation from Biogen Idec for investment banking services within the next three months.

• J.P. Morgan makes a market in the stock of Biogen Idec, which is or was in the past 12 months a client of the firm. It also expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services in the next three months.

• Bear Stearns is a market maker in Biogen Idec's equity securities and the company is or during the past 12 months has been a non-investment banking client of the firm.

• CSFB makes a market in the securities of Biogen Idec and receives or intends to seek investment banking related compensation from the company within the next 3 month.

• CIBC World Markets makes a market in the securities of Biogen Idec and expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment-banking services from the company in the next three months.

• Deutsche Bank makes a market in the shares of Biogen Idec and owns 1% or more in the company's common stock.

• First Albany makes a market in the securities of Biogen Idec.

• Hibernia Southcoast Capital says investors should assume that it is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from companies it rates.

• Prudential Equity Group makes a market in the shares of Biogen Idec.

• PiperJaffray has made a market in the securities of Biogen Idec and received compensation that is based, in part, on the firm's overall revenues, which include investment banking revenues.

• Morgan Stanley owns 1% or more of common stock in Biogen Idec and has either provided or is providing non-investment banking, securities-related services to and/or in the past has entered into an agreement to provide services or has a client relationship with the company.

• SG Cowen makes a market in the securities of Biogen Idec.

• Lehman Brothers regularly trades in the shares of Elan and has received compensation for investment banking services from the company within the past 12 months.

[kingofthehill]

ELN Elan Corp: Life after Tysabri (8.00 ) -- Update --

Several firms out commenting on Elan today following the surprise move by the co and its partner Biogen-Idec (BIIB) to withdraw MS drug Tysabri due to safety concerns... Smith Barney probably the most vocal with their upgrade to Hold from Sell noting they now believe there is an 75% chance that Tysabri ultimately returns to the market, albeit with a diminished peak sales potential. As such, firm's new $9.50 target (down from $25.00) is derived by blending Elan's value with Tysabri ($12.01) and its value without ($1.28)...Morgan Stanley maintaining their Overweight rating noting their gut tells them that Tysabri will probably eventually come back to the market. And if the product comes back to the market, even if its prospects are materially lower than previous expectations, firm still believes that the stock can move higher from current levels. Firm believes the stock is worth $5 if Tysabri is removed from the model or $10.50 if the drug comes back to market significantly impaired. Lowering tgt to $13 from $33... Merrill Lynch noting the approximate 70% decrease in Elan shares on the back of the Tysabri bad news is reasonable, in firm's view, as the market appears to be discounting what they think is the most likely scenario for the MS market. Thinks Tysabri is re-launched within 6 months, but with a restricted label. Due to restrictions, they expect Tysabri to be used predominantly as 2nd line therapy to the interferons, thereby decreasing our 2010E global Tysabri sales from $3.1 BN to $1.4 BN. Under this scenario, firm's DCF valuation of Elan is about $8 per ADR. Profitability shifts from 2007E to 2009E. Maintains Neutral.



copied from the www.briefing.com site

[spikefader]

Jan 2006 put options 2.50 strike price are $0.30 this morning. I think I'll buy some based on the gap down target theory (i.e. gap length x 2=target). Looking at a log scale chart, the target is around 3.00, and I've got plenty of time to be right with Jan 06 puts.

[dmk112]

King, are you still holding it?

[kingofthehill]

yes its like the movie ground hog day , i am looking for $20 by fall

I sold alot along the way had a lot of winning options that i cashed out so im ok . ego is bruised and the pocket is lighter for sure !!

put some people on margin lost 100k to million on this ...margin is evil!

I never margin more than 10%

www.wsj.com

Tysabri's fate will be determined during the next three or four months. Elan says its medical investigators plan to review brain scans for all 3,000 patients enrolled in the Tysabri trial, as well as perform new brain scans.

"I have high confidence" that Tysabri will be on the market, said Kelly Martin, Elan's chief executive, in an interview yesterday.

[Websman]

It's good to see that you survived the big drop King. This has proved to be a rough year, so far. It takes a tough, stubborn S.O.B. to survive this market.
We're still here, so we must be those S.O.B.'s!

[kingofthehill]

this could be the BUY of a lifetime, Morgan Stanley says the drug will be back, only buy with money you can afford to loose!

this could double or more ...or it could crash

good luck ..im still long


any option players out there??????????

[IIC]

I guess you could say it is oversold...the RSI(14) is 8.2...the only lower one I found was DPH at 7.9. The standard for being considered oversold is 30.

Here are some others under 20: OSIP BDY CKC LEA NTEC FOB FMXI LF

[spikefader]

this could be the BUY of a lifetime, Morgan Stanley says the drug will be back, only buy with money you can afford to loose!
this could double or more ...or it could crash
good luck ..im still long
any option players out there??????????
King,
re my put options call the other day http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14551&postcount=307
those Jan 06 puts are now at asking $0.55.
That's 83% profit in 3 days right there. That's a lot better than hoping the stock price doubles. Hope you hedged and got some of that.

[noshadyldy]

King, I think options are the way to go here. I don't use them, but I think ELN may be the think that pushes me into that.
This drug HAS GOT TO come back and take the stock right along with it. The demand for this drug is incredible! Viox is slapping a little warning label on itself, I think that may happen here. And we all know how well warning labels keep buyers away. Just ask any cigarette dealer!

I feel just awful for the MS sufferers out there with their dropped hopes. Hang in there. Tasabri is coming out soon.

margie

[noshadyldy]

King, have you considered ELANZ - the warrants on Elan? Up over 30% in last 2 days. Not too shabby.

[kingofthehill]

options are better than warrants, i dont like the warrants at all

[noshadyldy]

King,

could you take a moment and explain why you don't like warrants versus options? I don't know options at all really and am interested in the advantages.
thanks.
m

[kingofthehill]

the warrants are for suckers...........

this is a little dated written last year but you will get the idea !!!

Once and for all, let iron out the great mysterious puzzle that is the ELANZ warrant.
With the less sophisticated investor in mind, the following will be demonstrated via the characters of Abbott and Costello in the form of cartoon mice:

Lou: Hey Abbottttt!!! I just bought some ELANZ warrants today. Got them for today’s closing price of $1.07 per warrant. I’m going to be rich!!!

Bud: (Slapping Lou across the face): You numbskull! What the heck did you do that for? Don’t you know that ELANZ is for suckers?

Lou: Ow! No they’re not. The man I got them from said they were a great buy. A steal! You see, anytime before 5PM Eastern time on August 31, 2005, I get to trade EIGHT of my warrants for ONE share of Elan ADS! It’s a bargain!

Bud: (Another slap): No you dooferamous! You do not get to trade eight warrants for a share of Elan stock. You get to trade eight warrants for the RIGHT to BUY Elan stock for $26.72.

Lou: Huh? But the stock closed at $16.26 today. What good is the right to buy a share for $26.72 when I can buy a share for $16.26 in the market? That doesn’t make sense, Abbott.

Bud: Well, people buy it because they think Elan stock will rise ABOVE $26.72 between now and August 31, 2005.

Lou: Aha! So I DID make a great buy! You see, I think that Elan is going to hit $30 by August 31, 2005. So, I’ll be in the money! La la la! Let’s see, I spent $1,000 today, and bought 935 warrants at $1.07 each. That means, at eight warrants per Elan ADS, I control 117 shares of Elan ADS. So when the stock hits $30, I profit $384 dollars ($30 less $26.72 right-to-buy price = $3.28 x 117 shares = $384). Yeah baby!

Bud: Look here, gooberboy. Assuming the stock hits $30, you get $384 in proceeds when you cash ‘em in. But remember, you paid $1,000 to get the warrants in the first place. So you really lose $616! (slap).

Lou: Ow! Well, I was just kidding about the $30. In fact, I’m certain Elan is going to hit $40 by that time, so I’ll definitely make money! Let’s see, $40 less $26.72 exercise price less $8.56 ($1.07 x 8) in warrant costs….that’s a profit of $4.72 per share, or $552 big smackeroos!

Bud: Yes, but with the $1000 you spent on warrants today, you could have bought 61.5 shares of Elan at today’s closing price of $16.26/share. So if the stock does hit $40, your shares would be worth $2,460, or a profit of $1,460! Lou, isn’t $1,460 greater than $552? And remember, it’s much less risky to hold shares. If for some reason the stock closes at, say, $26 on August 31, 2005, your stock would still be worth $1,599, but your warrants would be absolutely WORTHLESS!

Lou: Eh, well, I was just funnin’ about the $40 also! In fact, I’ll bet my left buttcheek that Elan stock hits $60 by that date. If so, my profit will be $2,892 ($60-35.28= 24.72. $24.72 x 117 shares = $2,892). If I just held shares, the profit would only be $2,690 (61.5 shares x $60 = $3,690, less $1000 initial investment). So there!

Bud: Yes, but you could have bought January 06 / $25 call options for $3.80 a share today. Since they only sell options in 100 share lots, you could have bought 200 for $760. If the stock does hit $60 by August 31, 2005, your 200 options would be worth $7000, or a profit of $6,240. In other words….(slap).

Lou: Ow. I’m a baaaad boy. But why would that nice man tell me that these warrants were a great bargain?

Bud: Because that “nice man” most likely was looking for suckers like you to take his ELANZ shares off his hands at a nice tidy profit.

Lou: Mmmm, I’m sure that nice Mr. Ponzi wouldn’t do anything like that to me. Oh, and one more question, Abbott?

Bud: Yeah?

Lou: Why is that Mr. Huntsman so grumpy to us American mice-folk?

Bud: (Slap) Enough with the OFF-TOPIC banter!

[Websman]

Thanks King! I've always liked Abbott and Costello!

[noshadyldy]

King wrote:
the warrants are for suckers...........

this is a little dated written last year but you will get the idea !!!

Once and for all, let iron out the great mysterious puzzle that is the ELANZ warrant.
With the less sophisticated investor in mind, the following will be demonstrated via the characters of Abbott and Costello in the form of cartoon mice:

________

Well I axed fer it i reckens, all dem big wurds n all. but I thank yu fer da edgycashun. Shudda worned you tho tu rite mo slow cuz my reedin ain't so fast.
hmmmmm. lemme see hear a minit ..I bots it at 24 centz yesturday n tuday theys worth .43. Butt I missed the hi and gots owt at 40 cenz. hmmmm... I aint got that meny fingurs n tows , King, but I thinx i made me sum money. <toothless grin> ah yep yep, I think ah did!

King, I recommended ELANZ to you as a trading vehicle, not an investment in future shares. You are one tough cookie!

[spikefader]

lol King. Good write up!

[kingofthehill]

elanz is a fraud ...

options are for trading they are up alot more than elanz


they are not worth 1 penny !!!!!!!!!!

[kingofthehill]

hey abbott look

"DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 8, 2004--Responding to a number of recent inquiries from the investment community, Elan Corporation, plc today reiterated the terms of its Series Z warrants. As reported in Elan's Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2002, each Series Z warrant is exercisable into 0.127585 of an Elan American Depositary Share (ADS). Each ADS represents one Elan Ordinary Share, at an exercise price of $26.72 per ADS, subject to certain anti-dilution adjustments. The Series Z warrants expire at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on August 31, 2005."

[kingofthehill]

Elan to Present at SG Cowen 25th Annual Healthcare Conference



DUBLIN, Ireland--(BUSINESS WIRE)--March 11, 2005--Elan Corporation, plc announces that it will present at the SG Cowen Annual Healthcare Conference in Boston, MA on Wednesday, March 16, at 10:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time, 3:30 p.m. Greenwich Mean Time. Interested parties may access a live audio webcast of the presentation by visiting Elan's website at www.elan.com and clicking on the Investor Relations section, then on the event icon. An archived version of the webcast will be available at the same url following the presentation

[kingofthehill]

Sunday Times article from Ireland brings good news for Elan

Ireland: Elan board in battle over break-up plan
Paul Durman



GARO ARMEN, the former chairman of Elan Corporation, is pushing the group’s directors to split the operation into two separate public companies.
The move is seen as an attempt to distance the drug- delivery component of the business from the controversy surrounding Tysabri, the multiple sclerosis drug withdrawn from the market on February 28 following the death of a patient.



The proposal was made at a heated boardroom meeting which was exploring options for the company in the wake of the Tysabri upheaval. Elan currently has a market value of $2.3 billion (€1.8 billion).

Armen, a non-executive director, is seen as the key figure in the move to split the company’s original drug-delivery business from its American-based biotechnology operation.

It is not clear whether Kelly Martin, Elan’s chief executive, supports the plan. It is believed that executive management may want to maintain control of a much larger business.

Sources close to the company say the twin-track approach is part of a plan to buy the group more time while it conducts further analysis of the potential problems with Tysabri, which the company still hopes can be marketed separately.

Elan’s scientists remain confident they can demonstrate that Tysabri was not responsible for the death of one patient and the illness of another.

The company maintains the symptoms only became apparent when the medication was used in combination with Avonex, a successful multiple sclerosis drug produced by Biogen Idec, its joint-venture partner for Tysabri.

Elan is still loss-making and was relying on the expected success of Tysabri to return it to profitability by the end of next year. It had only recently stabilised its finances, having spent three years selling assets to pay off more than $2 billion of debts.

One source familiar with the directors’ discussion said that Armen is arguing for further radical action, since the group has few remaining assets to sell.

Elan began life more than 35 years ago as a drug-delivery specialist using formulation technologies to improve or extend the performance of existing medicines. This part of the business is still a substantial employer in Ireland, as well as in America.

The biologics arm is based in San Francisco. One suggestion is that it could assume the name of Athena Neuroscience, after a company Elan bought in 1996.

If the move proceeds, shareholders in Elan would be offered shares in the new company on a pro-rata basis to their existing holdings.

In a separate development, a New York law firm has filed a class action against Elan and its senior executives on behalf of disgruntled investors who allege the company knew about the dangers of Tysabri much sooner than it has admitted.

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050331/elan_tysabri.html?.v=4

boy am I glad I'm not holding this right now!
I might consider picking some up again though, if it keeps sinking like this.

[Websman]

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050331/elan_tysabri.html?.v=4

boy am I glad I'm not holding this right now!
I might consider picking some up again though, if it keeps sinking like this.

You're brave Jeisen.

[stocks54]

Lost more today. Two thing I learned from this:

1) I should have protected my holdings by buying PUTs...
2) I should have waited for dust to settle before buying more call options when ELN was $7.50.

Let's see how things go from here...

Regards,

[spikefader]

Well, the gap drop to 3.00 isn't exactly unexpected unfortunately. But if I'm not mistaken, King has protective puts, which should ease this pain.

I'm still holding Jan 06 2.50 strike puts (+WTBMZ) as posted here http://www.mrmarketishuge.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14938&postcount=313
which are now trading 0.85x0.90. That's a three bagger or 3x my investment. Lord I hope King did something like this. I'm holding these in anticipation of continued weakness.

[spikefader]

Lost more today. Two thing I learned from this:

1) I should have protected my holdings by buying PUTs...
2) I should have waited for dust to settle before buying more call options when ELN was $7.50.

Let's see how things go from here...

Regards,
Oh boy - you bought calls?! ~spank with a big stick~ Sorry to hear it stocks54. It's never good to hear a forum member getting hammered.
Read the chart. Charts don't lie. Trade what you see, not what you feel.

The fact that you've learned a lesson is great. This lesson will stick with you, especially if it one where you are feeling pain. I have made similar mistakes in the past, which is why I'm such a loud-mouth about being disciplined. I had the best teacher of all; painful experience. So chin up; move on; and don't make the same mistakes again! There is always light at the end of the tunnel; no matter how dark it seems.

[jiesen]

You're brave Jeisen.

nope, I'm a total wuss. I should have just bought it at 3 instead of flapping my gums and hoping for a couple more cents lower. I'd be out right now with a 10% gain. dammit! could have made up for my AMLN loss.

having guts only helps if you use 'em.

[Websman]

nope, I'm a total wuss. I should have just bought it at 3 instead of flapping my gums and hoping for a couple more cents lower. I'd be out right now with a 10% gain. dammit! could have made up for my AMLN loss.

having guts only helps if you use 'em.

And, I should have listened to your flapping gums and bought some ELN myself. Oh the agony!

[jiesen]

Oh the agony!

the misery, the WOE!

no doubt that this'll be at 4 before we're done bitching about it.

[spikefader]

Why you guys want to buy a dying stock I'll never know! :D ~jk~

Seriously though, congrats on the profit jiesen!

EDIT: hang on, just realized you DIDN't take it. OK, I'm awake now. :D

[spikefader]

ELN really showing some intraday patterns today.
Check it out.
And a stamp for who can spot one more pattern in the chart..... :D

[jiesen]

ELN really showing some intraday patterns today.
Check it out.
And a stamp for who can spot one more pattern in the chart..... :D

correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the 3 flags surround a SHS formation?

[spikefader]

correct me if I'm wrong, but don't the 3 flags surround a SHS formation?
The man is a genius!

[jiesen]

The man is a genius!

just cuz I don't use TA much doesn't mean I don't know it when I see it. :)

besides, I wanted the stamp since I lost the one for the CMTL purchase!

[kingofthehill]

back from vacation guys ...yes I had April puts alot but overall im not happy how this company is handeling this event, really not sure what to make of it from here ,,will post some news later this weekend

[stocks54]

Oh boy - you bought calls?! ~spank with a big stick~ Sorry to hear it stocks54.......

Spike,

I purchased 06 LEAPS assuming once everything settles ELN will make upward move. I definetly need to put some time and learn technical analysis.

Next time when I am overweight on any stock I will safe gaurd my position by purchasing siutable PUTS.

Spike - What's your take on AMKR?

As always thanks for your advice.

Regards,
Stocks...

[spikefader]

Spike,Next time when I am overweight on any stock I will safe gaurd my position by purchasing siutable PUTS.
Spike - What's your take on AMKR?
As always thanks for your advice.
Regards,
Stocks...
Good for you. As you probably know, you can get the out of the money or leaps very cheaply.
AMKR looking bearish to me.
Take it easy stocks and good luck!

[jiesen]

somebody must have hit the wrong key, because ELN just sold for 6.64!
not a bad return, if you just bought it for 3.64.

[noshadyldy]

http://www.thisisms.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=202

King, you might be interested in this.

[kingofthehill]

Thanks Shady , I am a buyer here, the market does not understand that this drug will be back in short time 3-6 months ..great buy here below $4.00

more upside than SIRI or any other cheap stock i know of

I have no puts at these prices..when the stock crosses $5.00 i will buy puts

for insuurance

[spikefader]

..I am a buyer here, the market does not understand that this drug will be back in short time 3-6 months ..great buy here below $4.00...
Oh boy King. No offense, but technically the stock has been taken out back and had a bullet fired into its head. On the weekly there is an almost perfect bear pennant, wave 1 down and 2 correction wave, followed by a distinct 3rd wave down, and now we're in a 4 correction. There is a 5th left in it, and even when that's done, there is no guarantee it's going to recover and it may take a LONG time if it does. I really think you're throwing good money after bad dude. There are better buys out there. Why tie up money at high risk right now. If it's such a great stock, let it prove itself, form a base, get some technical reason to speculate on it.

You've married ELN it seems. You love it. Tell me this..........does it love you back?

On the market not understanding, perhaps it understands perfectly. Perhaps you're looking at ELN through rose-colored glasses. Perhaps what you see is far far ahead of the stock....like years.....

There are plenty of good buys out there. ELN is not one of them.

All this said in sincerity buddy.

[kingofthehill]

well Spike You make sense, bbut im looking at this as a new investor, i made enough money from elan last year to more than cover the downdraft on feb 28 ...but i agree its a tough call

Motley fool had a well balanced argument today on Elan

[kingofthehill]

Biogen's share price has fallen nearly 50 percent since the end of February when it suspended sales of Tysabri after a patient died of a rare viral infection of the brain. Two patients since then have also been diagnosed with the disease. The drug was expected to generate annual sales of more than $1 billion and fuel growth both at Biogen and its Irish partner Elan Corp .

The company is conducting an investigation into what might have caused patients to develop the infection, and still hopes to bring Tysabri back to market if the cause and the level of risk can be accurately assessed.

"Tysabri still may come back very strongly, albeit with more patient monitoring," Kellogg said.

Since the infection typically takes hold of people whose immune functions have deteriorated, such as AIDS patients, it may be possible to prescribe Tysabri only to patients whose immune systems are normal, Adelman said.

Adelman added that Biogen remains committed to the Elan collaboration. However, he said, if Tysabri is not returned to the market, "Elan's fortune's will change and so will the nature of our relationship."

In the meantime, the company, which sells the multiple sclerosis drug Avonex, Amevive for the skin disorder psoriasis, and shares the blockbuster non-Hodgkin's lymphoma medicine Rituxan with Genentech Inc. , is looking hard at developing drugs in new therapeutic areas.

"We have had some internal discussions and recognize that neurology also means pain management, headache, epilepsy and Parkinson's disease," Adelman said. "We are actively looking into these areas."

The company may also expand into treatments for gastrointestinal and pulmonary conditions as long as it can find products likely to generate high enough sales.

"The stakes involved with entering a new therapeutic area are daunting," Adelman admitted.

[kingofthehill]

FWIW: This is my summary of the agenda for the seven April 12 - 13, 2005 session presentations regarding Tysabri at the 2005 Amer. Association of Neurology conference. The AFFIRM (Ty monotherapy)trial presentaions are on TUES. the 12th and the Sentinel ((Ty in combo with Avonex vs. Avonex alone)are on WED. the 13th.

Each presentation is ONLY 15 minutes! So I do not expect anything new about the AFFIRM trial results being revealed on the 12th.

BUT, because of the interest in the PML incidents, I have a feeling that 2 AFFIRM presentations on the 13th might run together.

Therefore, I believe that the important day is the 13th, because of the Sentinel presentaions and the GLANCE (Ty + Copaxone)trial safety presentation.
**************
http://am.aan.com/pdfs/2005_abstracts_Tuesday.pdf
April 12, 2005

4:15 PM AFFIRM - Efficacy & Safety
4:30 PM AFFIRM - Safety
4:45 PM Natalizumab in MRI
*********************************************
http://am.aan.com/pdfs/2005_abstracts_Wednesday.pdf
April 13, 2005

3:45 PM Sentinel - Safety & Efficacy
4:00 PM Sentinel - Safety & Tolerability
4:15 PM Glance - Safety
4:30 PM Natalizumab - Effect on Immune Cell Adhesion & Migration
******************

[kingofthehill]

Tuesday is a big day for ELN , buy the stock with a stoploss you might get rewarded.this PML stuff is turning out to be preventable and the drug will show huge improvement in patients with MS...the rollercoaster is about to continue ..next move is up
..
Important post repeat

{Elan’s Big Day Out: AAN April 12

There will be three separate presentations on the 2 year Trial results of AFFIRM at the AAN meeting at Miami, Florida, on Tuesday 12 April. The presentations will be made by three separate doctors from the studies. They will not be made by representatives from Elan or Biogen. The headings and timings on the day are:

4.15pm. The Efficacy Report: Clinical Results from AFFIRM: A Randomized Double-Blind, Placebo-controlled, Multicenter Trial to Determine the Efficacy and Safety of Natalizumab (Tysabri) in Patients with Replapsing Multiple Sclerosis

4.30pm. The Safety Report: Safety, Tolerability and Immunogenicity of Natalizumab (Tysabri): Results from the AFFIRM Trial.

4.45pm. The MRI Review The Efficacy of Natalizumab (Tysabri) on Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) measures in Patients with relapsing Multiple Sclerosis (MS): Results from the AFFIRM Trial}

[kingofthehill]

Elan is up 50 cents after hours heavy volume the news is good take a look !!!!!!!!!!!!!

[spikefader]

Nice King! Hope you clean up.

FYI: I see 5.00 is the channel and 5.53 is the price resistance. That fits for wave 4 completion, ready for 5 down (sorry for the negativity but it is what it is until it isn't :( )

[kingofthehill]

thanks SPike i have a few hundred calls for April $5.00 bought them for 5 cents each maybe i will get lucky

[kingofthehill]

well the april calls are dead the May calls were up 133% and i sold them also


If bought down here you're up 33% on your investment in 2 weeks
KM last told us that they met with the FDA and agreed to review all 3,000 pts on Ty trials with MRI scans and neuro exams. It has only been 6 weeks so far!!! Once they have assembled the data, they can go to the FDA and discuss the results.

Next, they would be silly to meet with the FDA without having a reasonable hypothesis about why these 3 people developed PML. Pt #3 is an easy one (major immunosuppression). The first two may be slightly more complex.

We learned from Phase II testing that Tysabri levels were 30% increased after 6 mos when given with Avonex. Since pt#1 had been on combo for 37 months and Pt #2 for 25 mos, there is the possibility that they had double, triple, or even quadruple levels of Tysabri. This "overdose" may have predisposed to the condition.

I think you'll agree that it would be prudent not to upset the FDA by discussing things openly before meeting with them. Further, it would also be counterproductive to placate the world, competitors and possible takeover vampires by letting them "know" that everything is OK. Isn't that what you want, to know that everything is progressing and OK???

Well, I'll tell you, things are progressing. There is an army of clinicians, researchers, and paid experts in PML, immunology, pathology, and neurology attacking this problem. Tysabri is potentially a $10B product and we learned early in the commercialization that SOME CAUTION must be taken to avoid "over-immunosuppression". Better that we found out early in the game. Believe it or not, this may have been a blessing in disguise.

Right now, most everyone not reading this board and YMB ELN board
believes that Tysabri is dead. If you show just a modicum of patience, I believe you will get the reward you desire. You will not get your hand held along the way though!

Take it from someone who survived the dark days of $1's and did not have the luxury of hand holding in those days either!

It's been a brutal time for everyone except the shorts. Working out the science will take a while but in the end, Ty will have been one of the most thoroughly evaluated drugs in the world. The patients, neurologists and FDA will feel comfortable that risk has been identified and defined. Knowledge is a good thing!

Keep some dry powder for "opportunities" should they present themselves. Stay off margin. Buy more slowly if you feel comfortable. At this point, it's hard to believe that there is still some value of Ty in Elan's current price...

GLTA

[kingofthehill]

remember that anyone with medical training knows that patient 3 was not a ty case and thus ELN should not even have dropped below 7 - as the imminent return of tysabri becomes clearer ELN will not be near these levels and I would think it would be above 10 - as the price rises it will generate more interest and those people will see that patient 3 was an outlier and with a little bit of work could see a drug interaction cause for patients 1 and 2 with an underlying genetic and medical risk - the methods for patient monitoring are several and they are cheap and easy - also a few knowledgeable folks that thought ELN was dead a month or two ago are now telling me "hey, it wasn't the tysabri drug used in monotherapy that had those PML cases in it" and I tell them that they have finally figured it out. I don't expect anything big from BIIB today on T but I do think we will get a more firm time frame for action on T and the removal of uncertainty will do very nicely for ELN - I think all of those analysts that said that ty will not be coming back will be re-visiting their opinions though not upgrading ELN my guess is that there downgrades and bearish comments got them the shares that they wanted at a cheap price - but as more people are beginning to figure it out I think the speculative fever in ELN will begin to grow and that in concert with a firmer idea of a time frame for Ty action with the FDA I think there may be some very good days ahead. I do expect more compelling info from ELN tomorrow independent of Ty, they should be announcing AAB-001 info that has not been reported by them but has been carried by a few sharp media folks, also should focus on strength of drug delivery and potential prialt market, but the shock phase is over and I think the underlying value case will be made very well tomorrow and as you know I think all of the research that I can find supports a pretty convincing case that Avonex added to Ty was the culprit in additional immune suppression and that will make the return of tysabri a slam dunk

[Websman]

You've got me thinking that I might want to think about buying a few shares of ELN while it's beat down.

[spikefader]

Channel turn up today; chase the closing price tomorrow or go for the intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part :D Ya want to keep it under 4%, but that means the stop isn't in the best logical place. The price support of 3.80 is over 10% risk. R/R not good enough. In addition, there is still the looming potential of a 5th wave down. I'll pass.

[Websman]

Channel turn up today; chase the closing price tomorrow or go for the intraday pivot. The stop is the tricky part :D Ya want to keep it under 4%, but that means the stop isn't in the best logical place. The price support of 3.80 is over 10% risk. R/R not good enough. In addition, there is still the looming potential of a 5th wave down. I'll pass.

Dang! You always make a convincing arguement. LOL

[kingofthehill]

from www.briefing.com

09:26 ELN Elan Corp, on call - Q&A (4.25 )

-Update- Co does not rule out Tysabri use in Crohn's patients, they do anticipate that the label will include cautionary language; co points out that many drugs used in Crohn's therapy have a history of causing drug induced PML. Co states that they are still covering some of BIIB sales force costs; co feels that they need to keep sales infrastructure in place. This is based the underlying assumption that Tysabri will return to the market given efficacy and patient need. Co guides Prialt revs to $130-140 mln for full year. Co reiterates that FDA is conducting an inquiry, rather than a formal investigation.

[kingofthehill]

another nice day for ELn, anyone on board the train to $20.00 ??


70% profit from the bottom
nice option moves also

TYSABRI will be back in the fall ....these anal list are sand bagging the public ...the friggin smart funds are buying big here

[spikefader]

another nice day for ELn, anyone on board the train to $20.00 ??
70% profit from the bottom
nice option moves also
TYSABRI will be back in the fall ....these anal list are sand bagging the public ...the friggin smart funds are buying big here
Don't disregard this pattern, cuz it's quite possible. EDIT: actually, 4 completion will probably be at the gap fill 5.60ish area. Should be heavy selling resistance right there.
http://img200.echo.cx/img200/4164/eln5th0br.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[jiesen]

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050429/def012.html?.v=8

[noshadyldy]

out this AM for a fast 15%. Too cautious to go back in right now. Waiting to see if Spikey ol boy, ol buddy, ol pal is right again. Not bad if he ain't. Devasting if he is. So i'm waiting it out for awhile.

I'm SO glad you're here, Spike!

[spikefader]

:D I'm glad you're here too!

Hey, I may be wrong; and the proof of that will be if it forms an W bottom at 3.00 and it holds, and/or an inverted SHS on the weekly, and breaks a neckline. Until then, it's at solid resistance areas and it's a great place to take profits :D

[kingofthehill]

Elan shares leap as investors take bet on MS drug
Fri Apr 29, 2005 11:55 AM ET
DUBLIN, April 29 (Reuters) - Shares in Elan Corp (ELN.I: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 19 percent on Friday as traders said investors with high-risk appetites were betting that its suspended Tysabri multiple sclerosis drug could ultimately make a comeback. "There's no specific news but it looks like people are betting on the possibility it will return to the market," said one Dublin-based trader. "You can very easily have a $8 share price if you put some Tysabri sales back into the models."
Shares in Ireland-based Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) were up 18 percent at 4.20 euros ($5.43) in Dublin by 1536 GMT, outperforming a 0.4 percent higher Irish market index but 80 percent below their 2005 high, having collapsed following Tysabri's withdrawal.

Elan (ELN.N: Quote, Profile, Research) halted sales of Tysabri on February 28 after a patient died from a rare brain infection. The company is currently conducting safety studies to establish whether there is a connection.

Davy analyst Jack Gorman, whose company acts as a stockbroker for Elan, said in a research note that both Elan and its U.S. partner Biogen Idec (BIIB.O: Quote, Profile, Research) sounded confident this week that Tysabri could find its way back onto the market.

"Our view is still that the Elan share price is assuming little or no chance of a return for Tysabri, and that a trading opportunity is thus available despite the limited near-term visibility on the product's fate."

Gorman said that while the risks were high, giving the drug a 10 to 50 percent chance of returning to the market with peak annual sales of $400 million to $1.6 billion would add as much as $5 to his $3.82 per share sum-of-the-parts valuation.

The stock was 14.9 percent higher at $5.39 in New York.

Posting first-quarter results on Thursday, Elan Chief Executive Kelly Martin told Reuters in an interview that he believed the treatment would ultimately return.

"I certainly believe that, given the unmet medical need and given the efficacy of Tysabri, that this will ultimately be back in the hands of patients and their doctors."

But analysts believe it could be months before Tysabri's fate becomes clearer with safety studies due to conclude in late summer at which point Elan will begin discussions with the Food and Drug Administration in the U.S. to determine its future.

"You've got to have a high-risk appetite but obviously if Tysabri comes back to the market there's still a lot of upside for the shares," said another Dublin-based analyst. "Both Elan and Biogen management have certainly sounded pretty upbeat."


© Reuters 2005. All Rights Reserved.

[kingofthehill]

I hope you guys made some money this week on ELN

[spikefader]

Nice 1 King - congrats dude. Will you be holding tight for $20 and ignore the resistances?

Bullflag intraday offers the chance for a run up to a gap fill, but it's got to bust the channel short first....

Chart has conflicting interpretation right now. 2 options as I see them: Gray channel turn up, pink channel boom, gap fill potential, intraday bullflag yesterday, are all bullish. The flip side is the bearish EW count, with 4 completion area at current levels looking for the 5th down, and strong blue channel short. Also intraday 5 wave completion yesterday to closing price. Will either fill gap and bust the channel, opening the door to inverted SHS on the weekly as opposed to the 5 wave scenario. Gap may fill and the sell to 4.00ish to form the other shoulder leading to a neckline break and chance to fill the larger gap to 25.00+
The other option is it sells next week to finish the 5th wave down new new lows below 3.00.
Personally, I will look to play the channel short on Monday, because it's a very valid setup and it'll have great r/r if I can try for intraday double top. I think short is the right side to be on for new positions. Existing positions long should take profits now to wait for resolution of the chart, or sit back and take profits at gap fill, to reenter during the formation of the shoulder and maybe to coincide with a channel long day.
Interesting days for ELN, and worthy of watching for more charting lessons :D
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/8894/elnapril303mm.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[New-born baby]

Spike,

Are you working on the art of deft understatement? If so, you are becoming a grand master. Look at the chart you posted. Now THAT is a lot of resistance!

http://img89.echo.cx/img89/6617/chaart14uk.th.gif (http://img89.echo.cx/my.php?image=chaart14uk.gif)

I would have to say that these ELN affectionadoes and SIRI affectionadoes have one thing in common: they stand by their stock. Look at ELN's volume! It is starting to rival SIRI's volume. Simply incredible.

The other thing about ELN: it has been, is it, and I suppose it always will be, a wild stock. I never could figure out what it was going to do next. When I figured my taxes out this year, I saw where I made some money on ELN, and I lost some money on it, too. I think that in the end King has some of my money in his account now.

[kingofthehill]

will I hold till $20.00 good question, I dont know but my buy ing and holding and selling will be based on my take of FDA news & Élan science not stock charts, We have all seen this stock defy any charting sense, the big money will be made the day these fking hedge funds realized how big this drug will be .

here is an article from this weekend it lays out the case for the drug very well, this is easy money at this price level, as the stock moves higher i will continue to pay insurance by buying put options.

I knowmany people who were killedin this stock by overuse of margin.
Millionaires were bankrupted by the drop its a lesson for all investore

///comparing this to SIRI ...make no sense this company will be breakeven ebita by the end of the year ...WITHOUT TYSABRI !!!

READ THIS ARTICLE.....

What's bizarre to Dr. Jeffrey Horstmyer, director of the MS Center at Mercy Hospital in Miami, is that less-effective MS drugs known to kill people have been used for years. "We allow Novantrone," he says, "and yet take Tysabri off the market." Novantrone's side effects can include heart failure and leukemia.





http://www.theunionleader.com/articles_showfast.html?article=54121

[noshadyldy]

I agree with your point, King, about other far more dangerous drugs. Many people haven't survived Chemo and the nadar state of extreme depression to the immune system that it puts a body in, yet it's used all the time.

I have to say, I believe in this drug. Having watched an ex-husband die of complications of MS, I know he would have done ANYTHING to get a chance to try this drug were it available to him.

[kingofthehill]

Spike - it is what it is A BILLION DOLLAR PLUS DRUG....

UP 16% today

[spikefader]

...We have all seen this stock defy any charting sense...
OK, I got a bunch of thoughts on that statement - and it's fun discussing this stuff - and educational too.

I'm not so sure that statement is entirely true. A gap and a triangle was the sense spoken by the ELN chart prior to its plunge.

Sure, ELN tends to act in strange ways; no question there. But as far as charting goes there were fairly clear indicators (to me at least) that prior to its big drop it had weakness down below. I think it was the day before the huge drop I posted that chart about the wedge/triangle and suggested whichever way it broke would be the bias. The way it panned out that wedge breakdown was just bearish jackpot if you were holding it short. Never gave longs a chance to exit nor shorts to jump on board; well, not until after-the fact anyway. But even shorts hopping on the bus after the plunge got a run down from 8.00ish to 3.00. But in short, the triangle was a whisper that it 'could' break down. That's sense to me.

Then there is the gap history. Honestly dude, that gap back at Feb 04 was always whispering sense for what was to happen. Gaps haunt, and bulls that disregard gaps purely on fundies can get a rude awakening and newfound respect for this single technical phenomenon.

And now it is currently heading north to close another gap and I wonder how many people, and even you King, will give that gap the respect it is due. That is one of the more significant resistance points it will hit on its journey north. Smart money sells resistance like that. Additionally there are new gaps below its current bullish move; so again, at least the potential for lower and clear 'sense' that one should consider them in trading it bullishly.

So as far defying all charting sense goes, I think it's probably more accurate to say that ELN is one of the tougher chart to detect the truth from.

Bottom line is ELN has proven that it is sage advise and full of sense to consider gaps and triangles; and not underestimate the power of them.

By the way; congrats on the reward you are getting for holding long. I'm really happy for ya. Take advantage of that, and don't let it slip away cuz bullish joy, greed and denial have led to many unhappy traders. And I'm certainly not implying you are experiencing any of these emotions, but if you are, careful my friend :D

Best to ya.

[spikefader]

Spike,

Are you working on the art of deft understatement? If so, you are becoming a grand master. Look at the chart you posted. Now THAT is a lot of resistance!

I would have to say that these ELN affectionadoes and SIRI affectionadoes have one thing in common: they stand by their stock. Look at ELN's volume! It is starting to rival SIRI's volume. Simply incredible.

The other thing about ELN: it has been, is it, and I suppose it always will be, a wild stock. I never could figure out what it was going to do next. When I figured my taxes out this year, I saw where I made some money on ELN, and I lost some money on it, too. I think that in the end King has some of my money in his account now.

lol well thank you, but I doubt I'll ever become a true 'master' at this stuff. Just as long as I have an edge that lasts and a willingness to learn (and most importantly learn from mistakes so I'm not labeled a fool) then I'll be content.

There will ALWAYS be times when my interpretation is absolutely 100% off. That's one of the brilliant things about trading; resistances DO get broken; supports DO get busted. Setups DO get proven wrong. It ISN'T easy; speculation can reward BIG time, and HAMMERED big time. If these characteristics disappeared and if I was 100% right all the time, then there wouldn't BE a market. I'm quite content having losing setups and interpretations deemed foolish or naïve by others. Without them I wouldn't have anyone to exploit or fade or provide liquidity. I'll be wrong often enough, and ELN could be one of the charts that proves ME wrong. But if I lose the smartest (by NOT being an affectionado then I'll win the biggest, and have realistic discipline to thank for it, and the generosity of the views that oppose mine. :D

[kingofthehill]

huge move today ..hard to digest this much upside in 3 trading days ... not sure what i want right now but i did sell 100 contracts of JUly 10 that i paid 10 cents for got 50 cents for them

[spikefader]

huge move today ..hard to digest this much upside in 3 trading days ... not sure what i want right now but i did sell 100 contracts of JUly 10 that i paid 10 cents for got 50 cents for them
King nails a five-bagger! Very nice return dude.

[kingofthehill]

ok SPike what do you see for Tuesday ??

up $1.00+ 43 million shares traded

[spikefader]

ok SPike what do you see for Tuesday ??
up $1.00+ 43 million shares tradedMany possibilities is what I see. Clearly acting bullish isn't it! :) But ya know, it's in the thick of resistance now. Who would buy here? Not me :D But that said, I'm expect the gap fill of 6.96 and won't be surprised if it bulldozes on to gap resistant at 9.75. Who knows....it may be on a march into the big gap. Resistance is only resistance until its broken :D But it is what it is - resistance. At the same time, with the declining channel bust and earlier upper channel boom, there are valid technical reasons for longs to continue holding it. And ya know what, consider this; there is always a chance of a huge bullish resistance-breaking run to close the bigger gap. Is it possible? Sure, although I can't imagine it, but it's possible. Is it likely? Not in my opinion. I think the right side to be on tomorrow is, again, short.

But there is more chance now of a big inverted SHS on the weekly forming as opposed to the fifth, but the 5th is still possible at this stage. If 8.39 is taken out, I'd probably abandon the 5 wave scenario and green light looking for entry to time the bottom of the shoulder....or channel long.

Short answer is I dunno :D

[kingofthehill]

me either Spike , i di very well off the bottom here im not sure what i would do , its not longer a steal at this price i would like it to just hold $6.75.7.50 range ...till the company tells us more about the FDA news

[kingofthehill]

HEY SPIKE DOES THIS GUY MAKE ANY SENSE ???

the runup from 4.40 to 6.80 is the A-B run and the 6.80 t0 6.18 is the B-C move; that says that we had a 29% retaracement of the move...If the low for today holds, then a 1to 1 Fibonacci expansion aould put us up to 10/share or a bit more...A greater expansionwill ofcourse yield a higher high, but wahtis important her is that a break to the upside surpassing the open high this morning is superbullish. Also please note that we did not even approach the 36% retracement that normally accompanies this type of moves...So now the odds are high that we will see at least $10.00/share

[spikefader]

I dunno about those ABC numbers - a $2.40 AB and a $0.38 BC seems out of proportion to me; but I'm not a EW follower; my counts are KISS theory, so I'm an infant EWer, and simply use them in a very KISS way to help me and it works. The C long setup as a significant pivot point is as far as I go with it, and I don't follow regular EW rules, so....

But here's how I would count it;

http://img218.echo.cx/img218/9404/elncount7ih.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Looking much better now King :D It's got me interested as a bull again...
http://img50.echo.cx/img50/2411/elnmay42qp.jpg

[noshadyldy]

gettn my waterwings on and jumpin back in soon.
I can't help but to feel so strongly about this drug.

[Websman]

I think I'll jump in with a few shares in the morning.

[Runner]

I would like to see a little P/B with ELN. Could be healthy for the stock. Put this one on my radar screen.. Nice job for those who bot in the 3’s

http://img167.echo.cx/img167/8282/eln3sf.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[Websman]

I think I'll jump in with a few shares in the morning.
Maybe not tomorrow. I'll be looking for an entry point though.

[kingofthehill]

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7795358/

Alzheimer’s vaccine on right track
Drug helps clear brain plaques in study participants

Reuters
Updated: 7:27 p.m. ET May 9, 2005


WASHINGTON - An attempt to make a vaccine to treat Alzheimer’s disease, abandoned after it caused dangerous brain inflammation in some patients, may have done the patients some good, researchers reported Monday.

They found evidence that the vaccine, made by Dublin-based Elan Corp. and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, helped clear some of the brain-destroying “plaques” that characterize the disease.

Some vaccinated patients scored better on memory and a few other tests used to diagnose the fatal, incurable condition.

“We now need to see whether we can create an immune response safely and in a way that slows the progression of Alzheimer’s disease and preserves cognition,” Dr. Sid Gilman of the University of Michigan Medical School, who led one of the studies, said in a statement.

Alzheimer’s affects 15 million people around the world and 4.5 million in the United States. It gradually destroys the brain, causing memory loss and confusion that becomes so severe patients cannot care for themselves.

Vaccine targets brain-clogging plaques
Elan’s experimental vaccine, AN-1792, targeted the beta amyloid proteins that form the brain-clogging plaques.

It has been shown to generate antibodies against beta amyloid, and Swiss researchers found the patients whose bodies made antibodies in response to the vaccine did not get any worse over the year following vaccination.

The vaccine trials were stopped in 2002 after 17 of 300 patients being tested developed a life-threatening inflammation of the brain called meningoencephalitis.

But the researchers continued to monitor the patients for a year after their last vaccination and were also able to examine the brains of some patients who died after the trial.


Writing in the journal Neurology, the researchers said volunteers whose immune systems mounted a response against beta amyloid did significantly better on a series of memory tests than patients given a placebo injection.

Magnetic resonance imaging scans also showed that the brains of patients who had a strong immune response shrank — possibly because the brain-clogging material was removed.

And they had reduced levels of tau, another Alzheimer’s-associated protein, in their spinal fluid.

“Three participants died of causes unrelated to the vaccination, two of whom had developed encephalitis and one other did not develop encephalitis,” Gilman said.

“All had large patches of their brains where beta amyloid had apparently been cleared out — the tangles of tau protein were still visible.”

Now the researchers are trying a new approach that uses antibodies against beta amyloid instead of the protein itself.

Last month another team reported that a small trial using antibodies seemed safe and may have delayed or even halted progression of the fatal disease.

Copyright 2005 Reuters Limited. All rights reserved. Republication or redistribution of Reuters content is expressly prohibited without the prior written consent of Reuters.
© 2005 MSNBC.com

URL: http://msnbc.msn.com/id/7795358/

[Michaelk005]

No offence king, but this article and the many other recent "NEWS" about ELN has all seemed to be to be a last ditch effort for a doomed company,

They found evidence that the vaccine, made by Dublin-based Elan Corp. and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, helped clear some of the brain-destroying “plaques” that characterize the disease.

I dont like the words "some" in a article reffering to biomeds. I dont like this company anymore and would venture to say .50cents by year end.

[spikefader]

Looks like the neckline of the big inverted SHS has just been broken (6.74ish) in a very bullish morning for ELN :D
There has been 5 waves up intraday today, and currently at abc correction. Recommend a long entry at the anticipated c, of 6.86 (will confirm when it's completed). Tight stops in the event of a c failure.

[spikefader]

ELN: OK, looks like the c ends at 6.86.
Just took long at 6.90 on the triangle/bull flag breakout.
Stop at 6.83.

[spikefader]

Here's the chart:
http://img251.echo.cx/img251/4280/elnlongmay106dz.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[kingofthehill]

No offence king, but this article and the many other recent "NEWS" about ELN has all seemed to be to be a last ditch effort for a doomed company,

They found evidence that the vaccine, made by Dublin-based Elan Corp. and Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, helped clear some of the brain-destroying “plaques” that characterize the disease.

I dont like the words "some" in a article reffering to biomeds. I dont like this company anymore and would venture to say .50cents by year end.


NO offense taken , thats why this news was released by WYE, noone believes Elan anymore. this program has always been the core of Elan, even last fall they said ALZ would be bigger for them than Tysabri. only time will tell. huge reward if im right and just another loser if im wrong

[spikefader]

Well at this point in time King, the behavior of price on the daily and intraday basis is very very very (did I say very) bullish. Anyone that says otherwise is in denial :D
Longs holding with good profit in hand should feel as snug as a bug in a rug.

http://img229.echo.cx/img229/3130/elnmay100ls.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[B.J]

nevermind....

[spikefader]

oh boy........ELN gets me again :) Ambush mode again after that 7 penny stop out.

[B.J]

oh boy........ELN gets me again :) Ambush mode again after that 7 penny stop out.

This is what I did: seeing myself as late, I bought the 6.89 with about 1/3 of what I plan to invest. I then put a limit in at 6.40 for the rest. Support, or former resistance appears to be 6.32 or 6.33. What are your thoughts, Spike?

[Runner]

I got to the party late and scratched on ELN. Nothing gained and nothing lost. Will look for another set up!

[New-born baby]

oh boy........ELN gets me again :) Ambush mode again after that 7 penny stop out.

Spike,

It happened to you like it has happened to me before: Ole King has some of my money in his account right now. Anymore, I leave ELN alone.

I was watching it earlier, and I saw where you had a nice .15 profit. Should have taken it. Hindsight . . . .

What's your read on the markets now? Forget that neutral stuff. I figure it is headed down to the bottom of its current range, around 10,100. What do you say?

[B.J]

I got to the party late and scratched on ELN. Nothing gained and nothing lost. Will look for another set up!

Like this?

http://img162.echo.cx/img162/2867/eln6oy.jpg

[spikefader]

..What are your thoughts, Spike?Channel turn up at the close :D. So we've got the neckline break with some healthy targets, and a green light to chase the closing price and/or the pivot tomorrow. This is what I'll be doing for it. I'll buy the pivot tomorrow at 6.79. Stop will be the tricky part. I'll probably give it 3 or 4% risk.

[Runner]

Like this?

http://img162.echo.cx/img162/2867/eln6oy.jpg

BJ, great chart. I was looking for a scalping play into the close. I had a target of 7.00. Did not happen and so I decided to exit at break-even. I entered this trade late in the day, but I thought it had a chance.

Interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

http://img154.echo.cx/img154/9659/eln11ma.png (http://www.imageshack.us)

[spikefader]

Spike,
...you had a nice .15 profit. Should have taken it. Hindsight . . . .

Not at all bro! And this brings up an excellent topic of discussion: win/loss ratios and trading equity curves. I'll post a few equity curve charts to show why I wasn't interested in taking just 2% today. (oh, and King, if all this stuff is messing up your thread tell me and I'll edit this post and move it to my thread).

So back to my ELN trade today. Why take only 2% profit when I'm risking a 1% stop out on the trade? If I did that, I'd need at least 4/10 winners just to be marginally profitable with a long-term equity curve. Check out this equity curve (note the 9 sample lines generated for a better picture of the average).
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/3384/scalpingstockswith2to1rr9se.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
(chart generated over at http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html)

But if I aim for 20% gain with a 1% stop, and get just 1/10 winners (surely I can do THAT! :D), my profitability (and more importantly my positive math expectancy over a long time frame) is over 4 times greater!
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/9139/swingstockswith20to1rrand1from.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)


And it gets better! (see chart below) Let's just say I can hit 2/10 winners with that r/r ratio, my profit (and again, more importantly my system equity curve) is going to beapproaching 10 times greater than 'settling' for mediocre 2% intraday price fluctuations.
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/4982/swingstocks20to1rrand2from10wi.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

So to sum up, there's a couple reasons I'm only interested in swing trading stocks these days, and the long-term equity curve numbers is one of them. The other is I can system scalp emini futures much more profitably than stocks - and with a whole lot less financial risk. For example, one of my YM scalping systems (see below equity curve) has a win loss ratio of 1 and a 73% success rate, which gives me a math expectancy of 0.459, which is 2.3 times more efficient than if I aim to daytrade stocks (which you'll notice has a math exp. of a woeful 0.2). You'll also notice that the equity curve is a whole lot more straighter than the first one and the average of 9 curves is tighter!!

http://img215.echo.cx/img215/7199/futessystem1to1rrand73strikera.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Anyone interested in doing your own equity curve calculation to work out if your own methodology/system/targeting/stop theory is actually worth doing head over to http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

Remember: Trading success is a whole lot more than just straight winners or percentage winners. While straight winners can make you HUGE :D, ultimate profitability is is much more about risk reward and how you make it fit into your trading style. The numbers have to work otherwise you're wasting your time and your money.

[B.J]

Holy cow, Spike! All those wavy colored lined are making me dizzy :D

[spikefader]

Spike,
What's your read on the markets now? Forget that neutral stuff. I figure it is headed down to the bottom of its current range, around 10,100. What do you say?Well, let's put it this way: I'm holding EFA long (annoyed that Qs have been stronger this time :/) despite Vector weakening to neutral at today's close.

The Qs recent low of 34.35 is a clear C long entry. $SPX and $COMPX are both reacting bullishly to expanding weekly channel longs. $INDU worries me with that recent channel turn down, but that's just one thing, and the fact that 10K held so well (after hours futures tick to 9,999 and a strong bounce) that is a really good thing for bulls.

So right now, bulls can breath easy (although there may be a day or two of retrace) but ONLY as long as Qs 34.35 holds and Dow 10K holds.

[spikefader]

Holy shit, Spike! All those wavy colored lined are making me dizzy :Dlol ~forgive him Father~ :D
Ya, sorry about all those lines! But that generator thingy was pretty impressive and I thought I'd mesmerize all you Hugeites.

[B.J]

I changed it to "Holy cow" :D

[Websman]

I changed it to "Holy cow" :D

Dang!!! Too late. it's documented permamently in Spikes post. Hahaha!!!

[B.J]

What can I say, Webs... sometimes I just lose control... Got any pointy ears to sell me?

[spikefader]

lmbo. hilarious.

[Runner]

Not at all bro! And this brings up an excellent topic of discussion: win/loss ratios and trading equity curves. I'll post a few equity curve charts to show why I wasn't interested in taking just 2% today. (oh, and King, if all this stuff is messing up your thread tell me and I'll edit this post and move it to my thread).

So back to my ELN trade today. Why take only 2% profit when I'm risking a 1% stop out on the trade? If I did that, I'd need at least 4/10 winners just to be marginally profitable with a long-term equity curve. Check out this equity curve (note the 9 sample lines generated for a better picture of the average).
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/3384/scalpingstockswith2to1rr9se.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
(chart generated over at http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html)

But if I aim for 20% gain with a 1% stop, and get just 1/10 winners (surely I can do THAT! :D), my profitability (and more importantly my positive math expectancy over a long time frame) is over 4 times greater!
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/9139/swingstockswith20to1rrand1from.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)


And it gets better! (see chart below) Let's just say I can hit 2/10 winners with that r/r ratio, my profit (and again, more importantly my system equity curve) is going to beapproaching 10 times greater than 'settling' for mediocre 2% intraday price fluctuations.
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/4982/swingstocks20to1rrand2from10wi.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

So to sum up, there's a couple reasons I'm only interested in swing trading stocks these days, and the long-term equity curve numbers is one of them. The other is I can system scalp emini futures much more profitably than stocks - and with a whole lot less financial risk. For example, one of my YM scalping systems (see below equity curve) has a win loss ratio of 1 and a 73% success rate, which gives me a math expectancy of 0.459, which is 2.3 times more efficient than if I aim to daytrade stocks (which you'll notice has a math exp. of a woeful 0.2). You'll also notice that the equity curve is a whole lot more straighter than the first one and the average of 9 curves is tighter!!

http://img215.echo.cx/img215/7199/futessystem1to1rrand73strikera.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Anyone interested in doing your own equity curve calculation to work out if your own methodology/system/targeting/stop theory is actually worth doing head over to http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

Remember: Trading success is a whole lot more than just straight winners or percentage winners. While straight winners can make you HUGE :D, ultimate profitability is is much more about risk reward and how you make it fit into your trading style. The numbers have to work otherwise you're wasting your time and your money.

Spike very awesome topic. This was my plan on ELN:

Entered late in day @ 6.88

Tgt was 7.00

Stop 6.85

Reward was .12/.03=4.0

I shoot for over 2.0 as minimum risk to reward ratio. I will not enter a trade with anything less then 2.0. This does not mean I hit it all the time.

I do think any trader would be exited about their portfolio with at least a 2.0 ratio.

This was my ETS or entry, target, stop for this trade, but being late in the day I choose to sell at break even. Anyway this is how I view it and I’m sure others can add some input about the impotance of R/R. This just makes good sense.

Interesting concept R/R is!!

[Runner]

Not at all bro! And this brings up an excellent topic of discussion: win/loss ratios and trading equity curves. I'll post a few equity curve charts to show why I wasn't interested in taking just 2% today. (oh, and King, if all this stuff is messing up your thread tell me and I'll edit this post and move it to my thread).

So back to my ELN trade today. Why take only 2% profit when I'm risking a 1% stop out on the trade? If I did that, I'd need at least 4/10 winners just to be marginally profitable with a long-term equity curve. Check out this equity curve (note the 9 sample lines generated for a better picture of the average).
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/3384/scalpingstockswith2to1rr9se.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)
(chart generated over at http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html)

But if I aim for 20% gain with a 1% stop, and get just 1/10 winners (surely I can do THAT! :D), my profitability (and more importantly my positive math expectancy over a long time frame) is over 4 times greater!
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/9139/swingstockswith20to1rrand1from.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)


And it gets better! (see chart below) Let's just say I can hit 2/10 winners with that r/r ratio, my profit (and again, more importantly my system equity curve) is going to beapproaching 10 times greater than 'settling' for mediocre 2% intraday price fluctuations.
http://img165.echo.cx/img165/4982/swingstocks20to1rrand2from10wi.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

So to sum up, there's a couple reasons I'm only interested in swing trading stocks these days, and the long-term equity curve numbers is one of them. The other is I can system scalp emini futures much more profitably than stocks - and with a whole lot less financial risk. For example, one of my YM scalping systems (see below equity curve) has a win loss ratio of 1 and a 73% success rate, which gives me a math expectancy of 0.459, which is 2.3 times more efficient than if I aim to daytrade stocks (which you'll notice has a math exp. of a woeful 0.2). You'll also notice that the equity curve is a whole lot more straighter than the first one and the average of 9 curves is tighter!!

http://img215.echo.cx/img215/7199/futessystem1to1rrand73strikera.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Anyone interested in doing your own equity curve calculation to work out if your own methodology/system/targeting/stop theory is actually worth doing head over to http://hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

Remember: Trading success is a whole lot more than just straight winners or percentage winners. While straight winners can make you HUGE :D, ultimate profitability is is much more about risk reward and how you make it fit into your trading style. The numbers have to work otherwise you're wasting your time and your money.

Spike very awesome topic. This was my plan on ELN:

Entered late in day @ 6.88

Tgt was 7.00

Stop 6.85

Reward was .12/.03=4.0

I shoot for over 2.0 as minimum risk to reward ratio. I will not enter a trade with anything less then 2.0. This does not mean I hit it all the time.

I do think any trader would be exited about their portfolio with at least a 2.0 ratio.

This was my ETS or entry, target, stop for this trade, but being late in the day I choose to sell at break even. Anyway this is how I view it and I’m sure others can add some input about the importance of R/R. This just makes good sense.

Interesting concept R/R is!!

[B.J]

Spike, I agree that this topic is awesome (despite chiding your colored lines :D )

My only problem is that I'm never sure what kind of gain I intend to target, especially in a choppy market such as this. I'm using 10% until I'm certain we're again in a bull.

If I end up chasing past a certain support area (rarely more than 4%), I adjust my amount invested proportionally so that I can allow a stock to move. If it does move back to where I consider support, I'll average to a full position. It's been working pretty well for me lately.

[Runner]

BJ, if you practice your r/r your most likely ahead of many traders/investors. In these choppy times money management is key. I will not play with a day trade stock and yes I honor my stops and yes many have took off with out me, but I followed my plan. I’ve herd Spike talk about following a plan. This plan needs to be figured out before the trigger is pulled. You would be amazed at how many jump in with out a plan. Then again a plan is only a plan if you follow it.

Sure my plans change and I’ll tighten my stop or close out before target, but ETS I think is key.

[kingofthehill]

rtq 7.21 ...........nice call Spike

[Runner]

Yea, great call on ELN Spike.

[spikefader]

Thnx guys.
Here's another thought:
http://img156.echo.cx/img156/4462/elnscallops4sx.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[kingofthehill]

premarket $7.59

what price is Resistance Spike?

[spikefader]

premarket $7.59

what price is Resistance Spike?$7.60 is R1 and $7.78 is R2. Those are intraday. $8.39 is daily price resistance, then $9.75. Then above that it's in the gap.

[Websman]

$7.60 is R1 and $7.78 is R2. Those are intraday. $8.39 is daily price resistance, then $9.75. Then above that it's in the gap.

I'm looking for an entry point...

[kingofthehill]

nice call again Spike close was $7.79 volume over 20 million

[Websman]

I'm looking for an entry point...

ELN is dropping after hours. Maybe this will give me an opportunity to get in tomorrow morning. Any thoughts?

[New-born baby]

Thnx guys.
Here's another thought:
http://img156.echo.cx/img156/4462/elnscallops4sx.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

Spike,

If I may ask, off what site did you pull this image? I might want to read more . . . .

And Thanks!

[kingofthehill]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={33214CB0-F928-499E-BF46-78FB1DC4 70C9}&siteid=mktw&dist=nbk




To print: Select File and Then Print in your browser pull-down menus. Back to story


Will Tysabri make it back to market?
Biogen continues to make drug, in hopes of return
By Val Brickates Kennedy, MarketWatch
Last Update: 7:24 PM ET May 12, 2005


BOSTON -- It's been nearly three months since Biogen Idec Inc. voluntarily pulled its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri from the market over safety concerns, but the company holds out hope the treatment will make a comeback.



Not only does Cambridge, Mass.-based Biogen continue to maintain inventories of the drug, it also has retained its nearly 100 Tysabri salespeople along with its marketing team.

And at least for now, Biogen (BIIB: news, chart, profile) still produces Tysabri, albeit at a lower rate. Biogen co-markets Tysabri with Irish drugmaker Elan Corp. Plc. (ELN: news, chart, profile)

"We have a pretty good feeling that it will go back on the market," said Peter Kellogg, Biogen's chief financial officer. "We had a lot of people lining up for the drug [before the recall] and they're still inquiring."

While Biogen management continues to be hopeful, one question continues to vex biotechnology investors and medical professionals alike: Can Tysabri, once hailed as a wonder treatment for multiple sclerosis, really make it back to the market?

Tysabri was recalled by Biogen and Elan on Feb. 28 after two members of an MS clinical trial were discovered to have developed progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, an extremely rare but deadly brain infection seen mostly in AIDS patients. One patient died.

A subsequent review of Tysabri patient records revealed a third user also had died of PML, during a clinical trial for the treatment of Crohn's disease.

As a result, Biogen and Elan have suspended all clinical trials of the drug until it figures out what triggered the PML cases. The companies are engaged in a review of all Tysabri patient files in an effort to solve the puzzle and plan to discuss the results with the Food and Drug Administration later this summer.

Skepticism

Biogen and Elan are trying to get Tysabri back on the market to treat MS as soon as possible, but it's likely to be greeted with a good measure of skepticism, analysts say.

"Confidence in the drug has been damaged," says Deutsche Bank analyst Jennifer Chao. "It will take time for physicians to regain confidence in the drug."

"I think there's a high possibility that Tysabri will be relaunched onto the market, but with significant labeling," said Chao, who doesn't see Tysabri back on the market before 2006. "I think the FDA will likely insist upon long-term, post-marketing clinical trials. They may allow a relaunch contingent upon finishing those trials."



Biogen has continued to make Tysabri largely to keep up its inventories of the drug, which takes months to produce, in case of a relaunch down the road.

The company plans to destroy all returned quantities of the drug, out of safety concerns. Biogen will make a decision as to whether to keep producing the drug sometime next quarter, when it expects the results of its safety review to be completed.

Based on the antibody natalizumab, Tysabri originally was developed by Elan, which saw its potential in treating such autoimmune disorders as MS and Crohn's disease.

MS, a progressive disease where the immune system attacks the body's central nervous system, is characterized by lesions on the brain and bouts of physical debilitation. About 400,000 Americans have from the illness.

[B.J]

ELN is dropping after hours. Maybe this will give me an opportunity to get in tomorrow morning. Any thoughts?

Webs, intraday pennant indicates ELN is ready for a move.

http://img141.echo.cx/img141/229/eln4sk.jpg

[Websman]

Webs, intraday pennant indicates ELN is ready for a move.



I want to get in tomorrow, but I can't be here to watch the market. :(

I'm working on a reasonable entry price right so I can set a limit order. I'm trying not to be too greedy. I've missed out on a lot of good moves by setting my limit price too high.

[spikefader]

I want to get in tomorrow, but I can't be here to watch the market. :(

I'm working on a reasonable entry price right so I can set a limit order. I'm trying not to be too greedy. I've missed out on a lot of good moves by setting my limit price too high.Channel long today at 7.08 on the daily. Got a good bounce from there, but I don't see a good pattern to confirm an entry yet....
S2 is 7.38 today, and price is under that so I would suggest waiting for a pattern now....

[kingofthehill]

May 19 2005 HealthTalk.com Live Broadcast on Tysabri sponsored by Elan & BIIB
Healthtalk.com is having a BIIB/ELN sponsored presentation on May 19th featuring Dr. Steven Galetta.
Invitation reads: "You won't want to miss this important update on: Emerging treatments such as Minocycline.
The latest in MRI technology. The role of steroids and immunosuppressive agents.
A possible timeline for reintroducing Tysabri into the marketplace."

[B.J]

Settling down nicely near it's 9 DMA on drying volume. Time to add shares?

[Websman]

Settling down nicely near it's 9 DMA on drying volume. Time to add shares?

I'm wondering the same...

[skiracer]

If you wanted to gamble the time to do it was when you could have entered at it's recent low at the $3 range. It was a cheap gamble and the risk/reward would have made the gamble somewhat attractive an a entry at that point would have paid off.
Now that the stock has run up 4+ points an is kind of just sitting there in that range bound area between 7 and 7.75 for the time being is not the time for gambling.
The reward for the risk may be gone at this current level. If you want a pure gamble play go to a casino and bet either the red or black on the roulette wheel. You'll have a better chance and less pain.
It's just about filled the 2nd gap down from the original big gap down on the initial news about the drug in question. That line of resistance is going to be hard to break and to do that is going to take some big event or news otherwise what good reason would it have to go above the current range of 7/8.

[Websman]

I love the roulette wheel! All those sparkly colors while it's spinning make me go crazy...

[skiracer]

Webs,
And perhaps with a little help from your friends. I love the spinning and bright colors myself. Crazy is not so bad either.

[Websman]

Webs,
And perhaps with a little help from your friends. I love the spinning and bright colors myself. Crazy is not so bad either.
so true...

[noshadyldy]

ELN very stubborn around it's 9 dma. Was thinking of shorting it, but I think not! Not yet anyway. I expected a little more rumble after it's presentation last night to the MS community, but just humdrum. ELN is getting boring. However, we do have the May 26th ELN update to possibly stir things up.
Stem cell looking really hot lately. hmmmm.

[noshadyldy]

Well, there went the 9dma. flush...shwirrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrBut as is SO often the case with Scottrrade, no shares available to short.
Anyone else notice this about ST?

[noshadyldy]

Spike,I'm not sure of a good reentry point for ELN. Last support is now resistance. Should I target next lower support or hold until resistance is broken through? Thoughts? Insights? Tea leaf readings?
TomR, could you consult with your darts on this?
Thans fellas,
m

[spikefader]

Spike,I'm not sure of a good reentry point for ELN. Last support is now resistance. Should I target next lower support or hold until resistance is broken through? Thoughts? Insights? Tea leaf readings?
TomR, could you consult with your darts on this?
Thans fellas,
mYa know, I'm sittin' here after watching that 'Fat Albert' video with the kids.................

...............and I've got one thing to say:

"Hey, Hey, Hey, it's time to buy ELN today" :D

Channel turn up today, gives a green light to chase it at the closing price of 7.23 or at the pivot tomorrow of 7.11.
As always, honor thy tight stops.
http://img261.echo.cx/img261/9868/elnmay236re.jpg (http://www.imageshack.us)

[kingofthehill]

rumor has it the trials are being restarted, thats why the volume has been huge for the past week or so, place your bets call options could return 200-300% on ELN in a short time,

Fidelity and Etrade show no ELN shares to short,

short position on Elan is 39 million shares!...enjoy covering if you short on the wrong day ...lol

[New-born baby]

rumor has it the trials are being restarted, thats why the volume has been huge for the past week or so, place your bets call options could return 200-300% on ELN in a short time,

Fidelity and Etrade show no ELN shares to short,

short position on Elan is 39 million shares!...enjoy covering if you short on the wrong day ...lol

King,

Here's a sister stock you might look into: BBW. 39% of all the float is shorted!

If ELN could pull a short squeeze off (and with this wild stock, I almost guarantee it), it is really going to bounce.

[Websman]

King,

Here's a sister stock you might look into: BBW. 39% of all the float is shorted!

If ELN could pull a short squeeze off (and with this wild stock, I almost guarantee it), it is really going to bounce.

I hope ELN pulls off a big short squeeze...especially since I just bought it. :)

[Websman]

I hope ELN pulls off a big short squeeze...especially since I just bought it. :)

So far so good. Now all we need is a little good news.

[noshadyldy]

Thanks, you great guy you!

Just made some mo money thanks to you!

BTW - may 26 tomorrow - big annual presentation at ELN
could be interesting.

[spikefader]

Thanks, you great guy you!

Just made some mo money thanks to you!

BTW - may 26 tomorrow - big annual presentation at ELN
could be interesting.:D Great! You're welcome. May this puppy rumble north and the cash roll in for us :D Lookin' at the chart, I think Elvis has left the building! :D

[Websman]

News looks good for ELN. Maybe we'll see some gains today.



"Elan still making suspended drug

May 26, 2005 11:02
The chief executive of pharmaceutical company Elan has said he is very confident that its suspended multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri will find a pathway back to the market.

He has also revealed that the company is continuing to manufacture the drug, as the take-up had been 'extraordinary' when it had been on the market, and Elan did not want the drug to be unavailable at any stage.

Multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri was withdrawn from the market in February, wiping 70% off the value of the company, after it was discovered two patients treated with the drug developed PML, a brain disease. One of the patients died. "

[Websman]

King, it looks like I've joined you just in time. It looks like ELN will open with a gap up.

[kingofthehill]

news looks great 39 million shares short, Biogen who owns the license for TYSABRI in the USA talks next week, any formal announcement would be thiers to make next week.

[kingofthehill]

Dow Jones Real-Time News for InvestorsSM
08:43 a.m. 05/26/2005

Martin reiterated that Tysabri stops the progression of MS, while other MS drugs only slow its progression; this is a "critical" piece of information Elan will raise when it formally meets with the FDA, he added.

He said Biogen and Elan "may never have a pure scientific argument" as to what caused the PML based only on three cases. "That isn't our goal and the FDA knows that," he said. "It's a question of risk assessment."

Martin also said Biogen is continuing to manufacture Tysabri, partly due to its "extraordinary" take-up when it was on the market, and so the companies are braced for its return to market.

The three PML Tysabri patients all had conditions that suppressed their immune systems, Martin added, but said that none of the three were HIV patients; he declined to reveal how many of the 3,000 trial patients are immuno-suppressed.

Elan, which faces more than $1.1 billion in debt repayments in 2008, would suffer a major blow if Tysabri was withdrawn permanently, as it has relied on the drug for most of its future revenue growth.

But Martin said there are "no concerns whatsoever about our 2008 debt obligation...We have the financial wherewithal to grow other parts of the business."

Elan also said that Phase II data from its Alzheimer's drug AAB-001 is due to be completed by the end of 2006 "We have a good understanding of what the drug does to cognitive memory and (patients') quality of life," Martin said.

At 1345 Thursday, Elan was up 3.2%, or 18 cents, at EUR5.75 on the Irish Stock Exchange after plummeting from EUR20.30 after Tysabri's suspension in February.

"As time has gone on and there have been no other reported cases of PML, there's more chance that Tysabri is going to come back to market," Goodbody's Hunter added.

Company Web site: hxxp://www.elan.com

-By Quentin Fottrell, Dow Jones Newswires; +353 1 676 2189; quentin.fottrell@dowjones.com

[New-born baby]

King, it looks like I've joined you just in time. It looks like ELN will open with a gap up.

Very nice timing, Spock! Must be that Vulcan 6th sense of yours.

[Websman]

Very nice timing, Spock! Must be that Vulcan 6th sense of yours.

Just the night before last, I had a dream that I bought ELN and it shot up immediately afterwards.

Pure coincidence....but strange. :)

[kingofthehill]

ok its early ...but like i said OPTIONS ARE UP 300% TODAY !!!!!


JAN 06 STRIKE 22.50 UP 300%


JAN 06 STRIKE 17.50 UP 75 %

[Websman]

I'm trying not to get too excited...but I think I just